tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business April 14, 2015 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
per person. too much. it's no wonder we have national debt of a trillion. that's it for tonight's willis report. thanks for joining us. we'll see you right back here tomorrow. ♪ >> i'm charles payne. you're watching "making money." plenty of reasons for companies coming up short. the biggest is the strongest dollar. the johnson & johnson sales outside the united states were down 13% because of the mighty greenbacks. 70% of companies have been -- the strong dollar headwind. the street is becoming more understanding and even forgiving with this one. higher oil. russia and china, not necessarily given a free pass as far as this west coast slowdown. some retailers have been excused. others haven't. it brings us to the retail sales report. it was more robust than obviously the last couple of months.
but both the headlines and ex-autos missed consensus. equity features dropped before the market opened. more and more, it look like the street wants good news, even if it means a rate hike. here to help us out. the team. matt mccaul is with us. scottie nell hughes. susan. look at you. oscar night on the set. and the man himself, lou dobbs. let's do it. dig into the first real, real deal. lou, looking at those retail numbers, and i've been saying this for a long time. when gas came down, wages started to nudge higher. what did main street do, they started to save money and not spend it? what's bothering them? something is abnormal about america when our dna says go to the mall every time you can. spend money you don't have. two-thirds of the economy is the consumer. what's going on? lou: we're getting experience. and we're learning. and the consumer is changing in my opinion, retailing forever. the consumer is often
not very clever, but i think the consumer has figured out what's good for corporate america is good for him or her. and by that i mean, starting to steward their assets, to plan their spending, to think about the consequences, the impulse purchase. it may become -- of course, it will always be a part of it. but it will be a far smaller part of our existence as a consumption society. we are that. more than an economy, we're a consumption society. that's changing profoundly. for the better, i want to be clear. matt: it's really bad fort economy in my opinion. everything is mobile. we want that -- don't think about anything. hit the button. buy it. it will be delivered in on a drone. if we think that way, that will change the dynamics of our economy. two-thirds of the gdp coming from the customer. >> increased savings which will make us less dependent on foreign savings. it will shift the economy more towards investment and exports
and capital spending and less than just consumption. it will slow consumption, but it might be better. >> only 14% of consumers today consider themselves spenders. the race is not to the swiftest. not to get the bright shiny object. it is, as you said, lou, to be safe and careful. charles: who steps up and fills the breach that matt is talking about here. lou made the point. they're not spending. they're not investing. what happens when corporate america hoards money and households? >> that's one of the undercurrents. corporate america is sitting on a big stack of cash. they're not creating jobs. they're not investigating in capital expenditures. they're doing buybacks. that helps the executives. >> here we are, the day before tax day. how many people have bellyaches because they have to write checks to the government. i'll have to pay more this year than in the
difficulties both in terms of economic growth because that two and a half trillion dollars that is sitting offshore because corporate america will not invest it here, which is creating a lag and the ability to create jobs to sustain our middle class. we've got to have a new mind-set. this campaign, beginning with hillary clinton talking like an economic populist, we are actually watching what may be for the first time in my lifetime, a presidential campaign, in both parties, that will be about the issues that are of the most important, of most profound significance to not only this generation, but succeeding generations of america. >> you're not hearing that yet. the first plan we heard out. chris christie came out. he's not even declared. he put forward a plan. if you ask people right now, they're asking, will these candidates -- >> why would you go to chris christie to get a sense of what is going on in either the economy -- >> i agree 100%. he's the only one that came out and said he has
a plan for the economy. >> it's important to note, charles. you have a lot of people that lost their jobs in this last recession. i think they have depleted their savings. a lot of them dipped into their retirement next egg. what they're doing now is smart. they're rebuilding that. charles: it is smart. but at some point, jim, we want to see the money go to work. not at the mall, but somehow starting a business. making it so -- jim: let me give you the positive side. if lou is correct, and i think he is. we may have slower consumer growth and in the short-term grow more slowly as we are. you reduce the cyclicality because consumers won't overextend themselves. that will give businesses -- charles: that is a ladder of success. a static economy because -- we're riding that aging thing. we're not europe or japan. we are becoming older. and if we don't generate some sort of -- if we don't generate some sort of com commerce -- >> if you have less
cyclicality in the economy, businesses will have more predictability. matt: we've become ge. general electric. a mature country too big to move. if you have all this money, i don't care if you don't go to the mall, put it in your investments. start a business. businesses being started is dropping. people aren't putting it in the stock market. >> it's one of the riskiest things you can do, start a business. 20% of us will be paying 80% of the taxes. we need a candidate that will say, i will do something serious about tax reform. lou: that is absolutely true. and i think it's important that everybody begin to think about going to the issue of cyclicality. that is, if the demands on capital and the demands being placed on our government and also by extension on us as taxpayers. we're looking at a country, and people don't even talk about this. we have been at war in this country since 1991,
flying our aircraft, our pilots, our men and women in uniform, have been nonstop involved in conflict over that period of time. it's cost trillions of dollars. that is money that is utterly, utterly wasted because it does not return to us a productive peacetime investment. what happened to the peace dividend? charles: we'll leave it there. we'll come back and pick up on that. you sound a little more libertarian than the lou dobbs that i knew. lou: is that your way of saying smart? charles: yeah. as we gear for the next election, another thing that will play a big role. race, gender. all these things. we're hearing about them already. those old assumptions, you can probably throw them out the window. more people will vote with their pocketbook. you've seen in this segment. we'll flush it out for you in just three minutes. ♪
charles: all right, guys. got to blow the whistle right here. open up another page from payne's investment playbook. race and gender politics is the order of the day. and for the democrats, it really always sounds like, that will be a slam-dunk. i have to tell you something, even as the nation's racial diversification starts to become more diverse, rather, the notion that all the nonwhites are going to vote as a monolithic black is completely untrue. in fact, while whites and blacks generally voted the same in 2014 the way they did in 2012. take a look at something here. here's your hispanics. 2012, 31% for the g.o.p. 7% in november. asians, 26% for the g.o.p. two years later, 51% for the g.o.p. wow. i have to tell you something, if those results don't worry the democrats and maybe add some enthusiasm to the republicans, a recent pew poll should.
because this is -- the democratic advantage over the g.o.p. you can see with older hispanics and blacks, they have a pretty good lock. as you move up in the age-group, these groups are up around 21%. that means 79% of hispanics are wide open. they'll vote for whoever sells them the best sales job. more people will vote with their pocketbook. not about the offenses and the injustices of yesteryear. there's a lot of elements to the election, lou. listen, let's face it. i looked at hillary's video. the first time a straight man spoke was at 1:08. it seems to me, yes, she'll put forward some master economic plan. i think she's saying, hey, it's about a bucket of victims. let's get in the same bandwagon and get our shot at this thing called the american dream. >> it's the democratic
template. there should be no surprise for us in that. it also posits a great opportunity for the republican party and the republican nominees if they will seize it. that is to take away the middle class from -- and those who aspire to the middle class from hillary clinton. among them, who will be the first, i don't know, but these candidates have to do that. they have to take the republican party in places they've never been. this party is already in a place it has never been. in fact, neither party has been where the republican party is right now with two hispanic candidates running for the party's nomination. this is a wonderful -- charles: amazing. absolutely amazing. lou: -- absolutely amazing moment in the party's history. it has to be celebrated and focused upon. you're talking about victimhood. lenthen, lord, let's talk about the possibilities. let's talk about a great
free market economy that can bring everybody up. charles: the same people -- lifts all ships. libertarians and tea party are talking -- every time i tweet about this, some hard-core conservative think it's code word for socialism or pandering. >> i got to get this code book. charles: you can tell i watch the show every night. >> they have to identify the two groups they're going after. one, they'll never have a chance with the most vocal and tied to the government in some way. they can be sold on the same message that lou pointed out. economic. prosperity. the american dream. it doesn't matter if you're black, white, tall, female, short, as long as you have a chance to take care of your family, go after them. do that without comprising the foundation we already established.
>> that's what ronald reagan did. >> and it worked for him. lou: and it worked for us. charles: reagan had the benefit of coming after jimmy carter. and i would assume that whoever the republican candidate ultimately is would understand that we've had a divisive six/eight years when that moment comes. what about the millennials? i consider you and scottie older millennials. my son younger millennial. and i look at him and his friends. race never enters the equation. matt: no. it doesn't. >> victimhood doesn't enter the equation. matt: i'm almost 40 years old. i had to deal with a lot of that stuff. i had to deal with some of that stuff. but i will tell you this, looking at the numbers from the midterm election in 2014, you know, the percentage of voters that came out. 37% were over 60. the millennials, under 22 or 23 -- only 12%. the young vote is not out there.
you have to focus on the young voters. but will that win you an election? i don't think they're here to win an election. you have to go for the old conservatives. that will get you over the finish line. charles: i don't know why a single message will reach every american. i'll do x and it will benefit every single person. i don't know how we ended up in this political sphere where we have these small bifurcated messages for one group. if it's great for the economy, in my mind, it's great for everyone. >> sounds great, charles. do you believe in unicorns too? but here's the thing with hillary's campaign, for example, she's waving that card, i'm a woman. don't you want a woman as president. only 14% of voters say they would vote for her just because she's a woman. i would love to see a woman as president. i've written books about how women get success in this country. but i won't vote -- charles: 14%. so they will definitely show up to the polls. >> you can't vote for a woman or a minority
simply because they fit that block. matt: it happened the last two elections. >> it was about that hope thing. >> unicorns. charles: i have a couple at home. matt, look at this. this is a picture from a couple of days ago. hillary clinton at a chipotle grill. and you see she has on sunglasses. the fact of the matter is, no one recognizes her. this was yesterday. how does she galvanize the vote? by the way, i think she's supposed to be shaking people's hands and saying hello. whatever. the point is, though, how do you speak to that? young people -- she came in and came out. no one knew her. matt: by doing that, you're kind of that celebrity. you're too cool for school. if she wants to be president, take that off. she looks like granny smith. she looks terrible out there. maybe she looked bad. had a bad day. didn't want to be in front of the cameras. hiding her face. >> that's it. if she was hiding, no face out. that's a gaffe. it goes to her first appearance in iowa.
very few people out there to greet her. not a big rally until may. people aren't as excited about her. lou: i wonder how much we'd all be talking about her today if she hadn't been caught in that video incognito is latin for sunglasses. and the reality is, she's getting more publicity out of not having said a word. and i think, by the way, we're getting played pretty well in the national media by her campaign. >> isn't it negative publicity? lou: i don't think it's negative. >> she wants to be the champion of small business. you know what, we're not stupid people. and i have to tell you right now, we want a candidate who understands business. who listens. we'll be looking at records. charles: right. >> and her record, if you remember, in 1993, when she was running health care and trying to get legislations passed, she wanted a mandate that every single employer provide health care insurance. we are not going to get that. charles: they want the single-payer thing. president obama
indicated to congress that he intends to remove cuba from a list of state-sponsored terrorism. lou, i think we saw this coming. what do you make of the actual news? lou: i think it's part of the same thing that he's been doing. i mean, where was he for the past six years. suddenly, he's fidel's friend. he's assad's friend. buddying up to the ayatollah. this is the inverse of the nixon to china moment in history. charles: why though? >> he's reaching -- charles: some people said it's the same thing. the same kind of mind-set. >> they're not thinking about the politics. nixon was the absolute opposite of mau. and i'm not sure you can say this of this person. he's looking to assad. a man who must go. he now says status quo to the ayatollah who has been fighting who is responsible for a third of our casualties in iraq.
he sees in him minneapoliimmensefellow. we don't need to put that in writing, that agreement over nuclear arms. >> you have to wonder what jfk was thinking if he was watching this. can we at least until the man dies until we open up to cuba. >> here's the bet. the bet is that young people all over the world, wherever they want want prosperity and freedom and -- charles: we've heard this. it's a dangerous world. we'll see. i enhance my vocabulary and everything when you're on on the show. lou: yee-haw. charles: the real smartest guys on the wall street -- sounds like a no-brainer. a lot of money. so far, it's been a a lot, and i'm talking about massive disappointment for everyone who put money into it. payne 101 is next. ♪
plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction,
stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. why pause the moment? ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. for a free 30-tablet trial go to cialis.com it recognizes pedestriansligent driand alerts you.ems. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't. and it can even stop by itself. so in this crash test, one thing's missing: a crash. the 2015 e-class. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. i'm sure you know what this meeting is about. yes, a raise. i'm letting you go. i knew that. you see, this is my amerivest managed... balances. no. portfolio. and if doesn't perform well for two consecutive gold. quarters. quarters...yup. then amerivest gives me back their advisory... stocks.
fees. fees. fees for those quarters. yeah. so, i'm confident i'm in good hands. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that. their wifi isn't just fast near the router. it's fast in the break room. fast in the conference room. fast in tom's office. fast in other tom's office. fast in the foyer [pronounced foy-yer] or is it foyer [pronounced foy-yay]? fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before. switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. comcast business. built for business.
a ♪ ♪ charles: it sounds like one of those great opportunities. the smartest guys in the room creating mutual funds for main street. so you can enjoy their investing expertise. but these funds have performed minorly. these are funds created by the morgan stanley, wells fargo, jpmorgan, one-year return, tenure returns come absolutely abysmal. one of the big reasons is, as you can see, the average fee is significantly through the roof. vanguard had the smallest fee and it was not too bad. mutual funds have had a tough go of it.
main street keeps giving wall street guys their money. they hope that they can set it and forget it. they hope that the fortunes will be waiting for them down the road. and then the wall street guys get richer. you see $73 billion in new mutual fund business last year. i'm for you guys every single night, investor money. you have fought hard, you know, you work hard, you have to put some elbow greece into the game. find someone more accountable. don't worry about how smart they are what it does on their business card. let's talk about that, we have paul in april with us. so what do you make of that? people say goldman sachs, set up a special mutual fund, a lot of people think it is a great opportunity. so far it has not been. >> most of the problem is the plain-vanilla large-cap growth, small-cap growth, where you really don't see anything but an
index fund. charles: the more likely you are to use an active management, what they should be getting to is on the beaten path, cutting off the fringe. >> you're paying more money from the performance, you can pay next to nothing in basis points. but i think the problem is that it has to be come it doesn't matter how much you do versus the index, if we all stick, it's okay, i keep my job. charles: when you see a bear and you say, how fast do you run. [laughter] two look at how the industry has changed, you've gone from stock workers to everyone becoming part of an investment council. everyone has made her people investment advisors.
charles: now the broker is a conduit to think that he or she has no idea with what they are commenting or investing in. when i started, it's like, put it in the sun, that's how you get paid. >> he doesn't want to have liability himself. charles: the labor department putting out a proposal that requires all financial advisors to put their clients interests before their own. we are going to talk about that later on the show as the plot thickens the air. and then in the meantime an explosion of sugar daddy academies. right now russia, as crazy as it sounds, it could just be a modern version of how to get a fairytale ending. we can't wait to talk about this until next.
the real question that needs to be asked is "what is it that we can do that is impactful?" what the cloud enables is computing to empower cancer researchers. it used to take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome; with the microsoft cloud we can analyze 100 per day. whatever i can do to help compute a cure for cancer, that's what i'd like to do.
charles: so you want to be rich. you can start your own business, become a self-employed expert, a lot of those people are floating around. or you can just inherit the money. but there are also some nontraditional ways to become rich that theme more and more attractive to more and more people all the time. millennialist, particularly young guys. but guess what? why not. the money is absolutely amazing. i want you to take a look. the world series of poker winners, 23, 22, 24, look at the money that these kids are making. the oldest on the list is 27 years old, $10 million. and it okay, you don't like to
play poker too much. another way to become rich is become a gold digger. we act like it doesn't exist, but in russia there is an explosion of gold digger academies offer advice on how to win a sugar daddy, that include updating your look, showing up for dates in an inexpensive car, not wearing jewelry, students are paying a thousand dollars a week to take these courses. there's a lot of way to make money. let's talk about how you can get rich. so someone doesn't have computer skills or a beautiful woman. what's wrong with them going after a sugar daddy? >> you know, they have an entrepreneurial spirit, they are creating their own business. why not. why are we faulting her and why are we criticizing. he is the one falling for it. >> the reality is it's going on all over the place. charles: at a sugar daddy
academies they have a picture of you. [laughter] >> i don't think that there's anything that i can say. >> a sort of institutionalized it, going up and down in new york, it's happening everywhere. it's been going on for centuries. >> it goes both ways. there are sugar mothers to. charles: i've never met one but i hear you. >> and like the kids coming out of high school playing basketball. charles: jordan speith engulfed made it millions of dollars in the sky that one poker did it as well. >> the sugar daddy thing, what is the problem if you get someone that you both agree with on, i mean, hey.
>> i saw this on facebook the other day, lazy women marry rich. smart and savvy women create wealth and marry well. i'm sorry, i cannot go for that. i don't have any respect for women that would do something like that. >> he needs some sort of brings along with it. charles: what is the deal? >> you know, there is luck involved in poker, luck involved are you great at own life. and then they put a lot of hard work together to get it. charles: you go to the academy,
there's a lot of beautiful people and you have to learn how to work it. >> is actually a matchmaking site out of california that does the same thing. as the woman from you have to be outstanding in your looks or it but i want to say something about poker. yes, you can make a heck of a lot of money with your own business, there's a high risk and high reward and in a lot of cases it's like playing poker. because if you look at this, the number of small businesses that fail is significant. so you're rolling the dice. >> we have that same kind of thing called old men. charles: oh, i have a feeling that the people on twitter are going to be after you tonight. inheriting money is also on that list as well so be sure to watch "strange inheritance." jamie colby talks about a huge collection of $5000. and then a family that has a crocodile ranch.
keep that in mind it for 99:30 p.m. on the fox business network. all eyes on the iranian nuclear deal. some of congress is up in arms, they worry that it might sabotage in tense negotiations as others think that americans will be part of the process. we will be back in just a few minutes. what if one push up could prevent heart disease? [man grunts] one wishful thinking, right? but there is one step you can take to help prevent another serious disease- pneumococcal pneumonia. one dose of the prevnar 13® vaccine can help protect you ... from pneumococcal pneumonia, an illness that can cause coughing, chest pain, difficulty breathing, and may even put you in the hospital. prevnar 13 ® is used in adults 50 and older to help prevent infections from 13 strains of the bacteria that cause pneumococcal pneumonia. you should not receive prevnar 13 ®
if you've had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients if you have a weakened immune system, you may have a lower response to the vaccine. common side effects were pain, redness, or swelling at the injection site. limited arm movement, fatigue, head ache muscle or joint pain, less appetite, chills, or rash. even if you've already been vaccinated with another pneumonia vaccine, prevnar 13® may help provide additional protection. get this one done. ask your healthcare professional about prevnar 13® today. it begins from the second the pursuiwe're born.ier. after all, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned... every day... using wellness to keep away illness... and believing that a single life can be made better by millions of others. healthier takes somebody who can power modern health care... by connecting every single part of it. for as the world keeps on searching for healthier... we're here to make healthier happen. optum. healthier is here. bring us your baffling. bring us your audacious.
we want your sticky notes, sketchbooks, and scribbles. let's pin 'em to the wall. kick 'em around. kick 'em around, see what happens. because we're in the how-do-i-get-this-startup- off-the-ground business. the taking-your-business- global-business. we're in the problem-solving business. 400,000 people - ready to help you solve problems while they're still called opportunities. from figuring it out to getting it done, we're here to help. charles: congress has been demanding this and they make it in this iranian deal. it just happens as it has been picking up more and more support. we will debate about it in one minute
the corker menendez legislation gives congress 52 days to sign off on any final nuclear agreement. the white house has been critical of the measure warning that it could sabotage the delicate negotiations but has since agreed to tweet this bill. meanwhile, the missiles could be delivered, they say they are defensive missiles, by the end of the year. the plot continues to think -- pickton. >> it is going to take two thirds to overturn a veto. but some are saying no, we need to have two thirds to ratify any bill. charles: more importantly for people that are saying that the constitutional government, that congress was going to have a role in this in the beginning. like why did it have to come down to all of this,. the idea that the president of the united states would cut a deal with the united nations on something if delicate and
important could potentially have nuclear weapons. >> the republican party has a very different foreign policy ideology. charles: doesn't have widely developed a system of government that we have? >> this is out of the ordinary, unprecedented, but what surprises me is how quickly they have come to an agreement. this looks like it could have been a dangerous standoff. charles: we know it's going to go through and we know that there's a lot of democrats think that this is a process that we should be involved with. but i read that there was some sort of deal where they get $20 billion worth of weapons in return for 500,000 barrels of oil. so i don't get it. is russia healing america? what are they doing? >> the whole thing stinks from where i sit. i think russia has been waiting and right now clearly it is a
vladimir putin versus obama thing, possibly payback for crimea and the ukraine. the president always wants bipartisan support for all of his support. this is a both side of the aisle bill. and so you are speaking out of both sides of your mouth. >> a lot of people are saying this, but i disagree. why would russia want to sit back and let this go go through? that is actually good for russia because of this at the end of the day? >> there was such an upheaval by the american people to get rid of this deal. >> by doing this, it's going to make the deal not go through. >> i think they would've said that this would not have been able to have enough raw. >> i think the russians are making a bet that this will
begin the crumbling of sanctions against iran. and against russia for the same reasons. charles: this put extraordinary pressure on israel now. this weapons system, anti-weapons missile system, very effective, it could checkmate israel's ability to dictate what happens on their own terms and i think, you know, they have to be thinking deeply about this, i know that benjamin netanyahu made comments. >> first of all i think that one of the things in bringing congress into this, getting a message to obama that you are not the king. we need to get that message, we were talking earlier about his we, now he's trying to be body. we see what is happening with the domestic legacy which is a problem and now he's trying to do something and foreign policy. but he does not like israel, he's made that known. the damage that he has done to relationships with israel is scary. it's going to have repercussions
and the ceo sent me. i think everyone is getting antsy about the market. >> if you want to be less sensitive and you look at something like this, there are short-term invisible funds and they are plain vanilla, boring, and you're going to lose as the rates go up. >> that is one of the big things that we have had. market investors.
>> it's going to be very high risk. charles: what do you think of this as a hedge for the portfolio, what percentage should be in the overall portfolio of 5%? >> buying this has worked up big-time, today i raise a little bit more cash from my subscribers, i think that it's still too early for those kinds of things if you really have some positions that are profitable you might consider this to protect them. otherwise i think it's too early to protect them. >> it's not meant to be by and held, but traded by added daily and weekly basis.
charles: what do you think that people should do when they are bracing for a pullback. >> it is a lot that can go wrong. i don't think it will be severe, but it could shake you up. charles: quickset just sign up for this, that's awesome, and another one says i think that it's really contrarian, but i like that. i really do like ibm. not a fan of ge management. >> i think it's a selling opportunity. caterpillar is an interesting one. charles: okay, guys, maybe america isn't the world strongest economy after all.
more signs that the fed may have to worry about rate cuts and not rate hikes. it's not a laughing matter and we will tell you how to stretch your portfolio when we come back [ male announcer ] legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses. if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution that's right for you.
we're here to help you turn your dream into a reality. then you'll know how if youncomfortable it can be.h, but did you know that the lack of saliva can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath? well, there is biotene, specially formulated with moisturizers and lubricants... biotene can provide soothing relief and it helps keep your mouth healthy too. biotene, for people who suffer from a dry mouth. new york state is reinventing by leading the way on tax cuts. we cut the rates on personal income taxes. we enacted the lowest corporate tax rate since 1968.
we eliminated the income tax on manufacturers altogether. with startup-ny, qualified businesses that start, expand or relocate to new york state pay no taxes for 10 years. all to grow our economy and create jobs. see how new york can give your business the opportunity to grow at ny.gov/business charles: time for marching orders. last week "wall street journal" interviewed economists, smart money now shifting to september, june is 18% where 65% think it probably will be in september. you can see before the number was flip flop. this matches closely with data that's analyzed by the cme, they have june rate hike 2%
probability. they go way down, you see 2016 numbers, for this year december 57%. this morning when the imf updated their forecast for global growth, it is amazing, output for -- world will be the same as it was in january, the u.s. was downgraded. to 3.1% growth. what is the true health of the u.s. economy? let's talk about this. we spend so much time talking about the fed. jim, i don't hear about it too much. i think that fed will be not part of the equation for the year with these numbers. >> if you said to fed i guarantee you 3.1%, they would love it, i think they are worried at-this-point they would love for that, it is what you
see is what you get. charles: 3% would be huge for next decade if we could get those numbers, it has been a long time since we had a whole year at 3%. >> the forecasters are usually ridiculous they shoot high and reactor just and -- reactor just and make excuses. >> i think that rah-rah about recovery is tepid at best. until we get real signs of growth and strength they are not raising interest rates. >> you are smiling? >> i have been most dovish person on your show, i think fed should not to quantitative easing, this your typical post financial crisis recovery. charles: why so long after? >> it takes two recessions before you return to normalcy. >> reporter: we need another
one. >> we are going to have a mile recession, at some point, you return to more trend growth, this happened in south america, look at japan, they never got off of the snide because of this, fed has to get out of the equation. charles: what do you think? >> qe4. >> then i am in trouble, 2 1/2% growth, i have said it for months is okay, an okay economy is good. fed sits on their hand, corporation make money, we'll see tomorrow bank of america, and delta. charles: intel reported after the bell, met on bottom line, missed a little bit on top line. but margins are expanding the stock up slightly. you are fantastic. jim, not you done do so -- you didn't do so bad yourself, we appreciate you joining us 6 p.m., and if you can't see the show, dvr is, take notes, we're
doing a good job making you money, we have to thank my friend lou dobbs, and by the way he is next, keep it height rear on fox business. lou: good evening i am lou dobbs, congress and the white house have struck a deal, ending a month's long standoff over whether legislative branch should have a say in approve anything nuclear deal with iran. under this compromise senate foreign relations committee has 30 days to approve the deal. assuming it is completed by a june 30 deadline. but some critics say that legislation is too watered-down. and gives the president too much more time, and room in which to negotiate what could still be a very dangerous deal. tonight, we take up where the republicans just bowed to the president, we'll tal