tv Risk and Reward With Deidre Bolton FOX Business September 14, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
talking about how there is no recourse. they're the judge and jury. said they did it. incinerate it. that is not fair. david: like the irs? very similar. >> there you go. that does it for us, "risk & reward" with deirdre bolton starts right now. [cheering] [singing] deirdre: emergency session is happening right now in brussels on the refugee rush. the relocation of 120,000 migrants is a big part of the conversation. germany, austria, reinstated borders. hungary installing mores sore wire fences. the white house last week announced that president obama wants thousands of refugees to come here. >> he has informed his team he would like them to accept at least, make preparations to accept at least 10,000 syrian refugees. we have indicated we're looking
to increase number beyond 70,000. which is what, which is the approximate number that was is likely to be taken in by end of this year, which is the end of this month. deirdre: former john mccain campaign director ford o'connell is with me. he says open doors are harder to close. ford, glad to have you with me. what logistics would be involved in the u.s., accepting refugees? >> oh, my gosh. would be a whole host of logistics involved. talking about the law. talking about political, economic and security repercussions. you have to vet these people. they would be subject to welfare benefits, et cetera. there is a lot going on. this conflict has been going on four years. there is a reason why we've only taken in 1500 thus far. if you do you open pandora's box. you become a magnet not only for migrants but smugglers. case in point. they said they would take in 800,000. in a few days that number is up to a million.
don't know how to deal with it. altruism and open borders notion in europe went out the window and folded like a cheap suit. deirdre: i don't know if they folded like a cheap suit. people can access europe a lot easier than here. welfare benefits is not clear. idea is temporary. that is going on in brussels, trying to relocate, consider temporary camps. u.s. has given $4 billion to the cause. by the way that is more, by a lot than any other country. so given geography, is that a better way for the u.s. to help? >> absolutely we should give them humanitarian aid and logistical support. we should help out europe and middle east in this situation but we should be very, very careful about opening our doors to the situation because once you do, you honestly can't stop. let me tell you something else, deirdre. even if you have idea bringing people here on temporary visa, what if they overstay the visa? look what happened with the
illegal immigration process? we can't even track the people. some cases like the william wilberforce law can be used against the u.s. government and you may never be able to remove the people. we need to be careful, compassionate and realistic too. deirdre: ford, very good roundup. ford o'connell. he is a republican strategist. with our eyes on the markets investors heard crushing et cetera as stocks closed slightly lower. yale economist robert schiller says you may have seen muted trade and based on research he does including investor surveys, there is great fear that the u.s. stock market is overvalued. i'm with jamie cox right now. he disagrees. glad to have you here. robert schiller says the fear is so high, higher than any other peak time i should say than the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000. is that apt in your view? >> well i think he fails to look at the interest rate differential between the two
periods but go back to contrast with the schiller pe. back in 2000 the schiller pe was all-time high and markets crashed there after because valuations were completely out of control. this is little bit different. people have trepidation because of inflection point we're reaching with interest rates. mortgage of a short-term valuation call that would lead to correction more so than calamity of a bubble bursting either in housing or in stocks like happened in 2008 or in 2000. completely separate situation. i understand where he gets data. if you compare his sentiment data to schiller pe you get two different answers. that is where the answer truly lies. deirdre: jamie i want to come back on interest rates. lee munson with me now. lee, what is your take? are we just looking over the edge? >> i think we are but i think we have to remember when you look at, last guest was talking about the stock market. the housing market and the bond market.
by any measure the bond market is the current bubble of our time but what people have to remember, when you look at broader market, think of all the social media stocks. think how much money lose central bankers have printed. while you have great deals on valueside, things undervalued you have a lot in the s&p 500 and a lot out there. look at facebook. look at some things just overpriced. before you go off to buy general index of overall market, you might want to sort of really look at cheaper valuations that pay good dividends and avoid what schiller is really talking about. deirdre: when we come back in just a minute, effect of market volatility on ceo confidence. does it make ceo's more likely to buy, less likely? one of wall street's top strategic thinkers. lazard vice chairman will tell us how the market moves are changing advice he is giving. want to bring you back, lee, jamies first, this change, you
alluded to it in rate policy. would change some ceo strategies. the possibility of a fed rate increase. it with r would be the first time in more than nine years. what will this do, jamie, first to the stock market? >> i think we've seen what the potential rate rise is growing to do to the stock market. we sold off in advance of it. markets discount future opportunities or future events and i think what we've seen is just that the fed should definitely take this opportunity to raise rates, do so in september. goldman sachs came out with a report last week said the damage to the market is equivalent to three interest rate rises. let's go ahead to start the process to communicate what nextra projecttry will be which is far more important than what level of rates is generally, knowing what they are going to be over time. let's get it done, get it over with, get rates normalized, if there is indeed a bubble none of us have seen or can predict,
this will get us at least further along to get it corrected as opposed to letting it go, letting free money continue to build up and have a much worse outcome in the near future. deirdre: lee, for your take, we hear what jamie is saying, if the fed doesn't tighten now, worse things to come. how do you see this fitting into what you told us about the housing market and the bond market? >> first of all i am in the camp i want them to raise and get on with it. let's be realistic we've been talking about this so much like talking about china for endless weeks. if they raise rates, people will be happy because it shows the fed credibility. if they don't raise rates, people are happy because it's a punchbowl. people are looking for any reason for a rally. you know what that is? getting to friday. no matter what the fed does, start hitting end of this year and start heading eventually we'll have recession, the fed will probably have not been able
to raise rates enough to cut. then we end up this weak quantitative easing thing that nobody likes. it doesn't work that well. people like a rate cut. so unless we raise faster which we're not going to get it will be tough in the next recession. i would be very careful about overpriced u.s. large cap market. deirdre: lee munson, jamie cox, stay with my please. speaking of rates, speaking of the fed, former reagan budget director david stockman on fox business today said enough is enough. >> i'm arguing that the jig is up. 80 months of zir, zero interest rates. time for the fed to stop the jihad begins savers. >> and do what. >> find interest rate that makes sense. deirdre: we have the director of
the economic policy institute. christian, you are saying if rates go higher, wages get killed and job recovery is stopped in its tracks. why is that? >> yeah. deirdre we're sill in the midst of recovering from a economic calamity the likes which we were never prepared for and which our tools were not prepared to deal with effectively and quite frankly there is no real reason economically speaking to look at the fed raising short-term interest rates. unemployment, i'm sorry employment levels are still not at the prerecession levels. we still have wage growth which is virtually nonexistent. we have inflation, traditional bogeyman which would require a rate increase nowhere on the horizon. if you look at actual data, there is no reason to raise rates. certainly we've gone through historically long period of sear are interest but that shouldn't be the determinant for raising rates prematurely. deirdre: christian, let me ask you, when you talk about the labor market a lot of people point out in the u.s. between
five and six million jobs go unfilled. in other words they're here. they're on our shores but they go unfilled because there is a, basically a skills gap. that has nothing to do with rates. >> no, it certainly doesn't but raising rates will not change the skills gap such as it is and we can talk about that at length as well but the fact of the matter the triggers why you actually would raise rates are not there. it shouldn't be simply investor fatigue at prolonged period of zero interest that causes us to do something the data doesn't support. quite frankly the harm is considerable if we raise rates prematurely which would happen if they raise rates now. we would talk about, further dampening wage growth. further dampening jobs. those are the key issues regarding people's outcomes in this labor market. deirdre: christian, come back. we have more to do. christian dorsey, democratic strategist and of course
economic policy institute director. remind they're fox business has you covered this thursday. we'll bring you the fed's decision right away. instant context and analysis, 2:00 p.m. eastern time. for all that and more. meantime investors are paying attention to the fed. the decision is the event of the week for the markets. there is a new poll that shows 70% of the americans do not know who janet yellen is. we took to the streets to see if we would get the same results. you might be surprised by what we found. >> do you know who this woman is? >> no idea. >> i recognize the face but honest to god can't tell you her name. >> no. but she looks familiar. >> no. o'reilly, i would know who that is. awe believe active management can protect capital long term.
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deirdre: donald trump is holding a rally this evening at dallas american airlines center scheduled to begin 7:00 p.m. eastern time. sources say as many as to thousand people may show -- 20,000 people may show up there in texas. a new series of polls show trump is ahead in key battleground states as iowa and new hampshire. fox business will bring to you the event live as soon as it starts. people are used to donald trump making strong statements on numerous issues. one of his recent targets, ceos and their pay. >> it's a shame and it is disgraceful. sometimes the boards rule but i would say it is probably less than 10%. and you see these guys making enormous amounts of money. it is a total and complete joke. deirdre: with me now is four-time presidential candidate, consumer advocate and author of, return to sender, ralph nader. ralph, so glad to have you back. >> thank you. deirdre: is trump agreeing essentially with president obama?
>> oh, it is quite different. what he just said about high salaries of the bosses and the cushy relations with their board of directors resonates with the left-right reaction all over the country. there will be a lot of left-right people in dallas, 20,000 people. people want wall street crooks to be put away, prosecuted and convicted and jailed after 2008 and 2009. so the main street versus wall street is a powerful theme for donald trump. he has got it all by himself. the others are not going in that direction. deirdre: ralph, as you said he seems to be tapping a lot of anger and a lot of frustration. do you think he can carry this all the way through? >> well, it depends. if he stays on the offense, he will have a lot to say that will resonate with left-right, against the plutocracy big guys. deirdre: anti-establishment? >> yeah. if he is ever put on the defense, then all this research
that is being compiled by his adversaries and the republican establishment, about his past business dealings, his personal issues, all that will start pouring in on him. so he he has to stay on the offense. almost like polls so favorable to him are mesmerizing and distracting media. they keep focusing on polls and statements no one else want to make. deirdre: to your point, ralph, i had somebody the other day say, want to do something something interesting. get donald trump to release tax returns and real conversation begins. the trump organization, looking at my notes, made between 275, 325 million in profits. it was on about 600 million in revenue. one company we found with similar states is based in johnson city, tennessee. called nn. they make steel balls. the ceo of that company has an annual basalry of 500,000. trump declared his income as
362 million last year. so, when you talk about getting into the numbers, how does that make him look? does that make him look inconsistent or does it make him look hypocritical? >> he will interpret it he did it all by himself. he was not relying on cushy board of directors to rubberstamp his huge income. romney delayed, releasing his tax returns for months and didn't seem to pay a penalty. i think he will resist releasing all his financial information. to see how long he can take it. right now the impact on other 16 or 17 candidates will thin out the republican parade. governor perry is just dropping out. i think impact of trump taking oxygen out of the others will reduce number of candidates to eight, seven and then six. i do think he lost, he gave up his trump card a couple weeks ago when he said he wasn't going to consider running as independent.
he signed this pledge to stay loyal. he might have done that a couple months too early, deirdre. deirdre: you mean he lost a little bit of leverage? so funny, as you're right, ralph, everyone is talking about this, including miss alabama. here was her statement. >> i think donald trump is an entertainer and i think he says what is on a lot of people's mind but i think the republican party should be absolutely terrified of all the attention he is taking from incredible candidates like jeb bush and chris christie. deirdre: there you go, even in a beauty pageant, a, his name is coming up. b, you have a contestant really throwing punches. >> he really is broading number of americans interested in the campaign for sure. look what he is saying. the hedge fund influence, wall street influence on bush and hillary, that resonates back all over the country, on main street and elm street. when he said the other day, we pay politicians. what do you think we pay them for? so they can do what we want. that resonates. you see?
there are long tails to those statements. they produce a lot of conversations around the watercooler. deirdre: ralph, as someone who has gone through this four times, you have run for president four times, if you were advising him and he were listening to advise, what would you tell him? >> stay on offense and emphasize the rule of the few over the many, main street versus wall street syndrome. and the big banks and keep talking about the influence of wall street on his major competitors like jeb bush and hillary clinton. deirdre: all right. ralph nader. thank you so much. love having you with us. thank you. >> you're welcome jo ralph nader, author of return to sender. >> thanks. deirdre: former presidential candidate. when we come back, apple one of the most widely-held stocks. if you're a apple bull or bear, you want to see something from my next guest. he has one picture that will tell you all you need to know. who is janet yellen? a new poll says majority of americans have no idea.
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deirdre: here are some of the stories we're following for you this hour. a deadly mistake. egyptian security forces accidentally killed at least 12 tourists and injured tin others after thinking they were militants. militants were traveling in restricted zone where there had been some militant activity. egypt is investigating the accident. for a country dependent on tourism revenue the conflict in the region is taking a large economic to. a storm cause ad crain to collapse at the grand mosque in saudi arabia. 107 people were killed, 200 were
injured. this happened in holy city of hajj, that brings millions of worshipers to mecca. >> closer to home, a fast-moving wildfire is raging in california. hundreds of buildings lost, thousands of residents evacuated. four firefighters were hospitalized with third-degree burns. movie star, turned politician, arnold schwarzenegger will be back as new host of the "celebrity apprentice." he will replace mogul turned presidential candidate donald trump. speaking of headlines, apple, one of the most widely-held stocks. according to inventory data, apple's new iphone 6s, selling at faster pace than this time last year. some analysts tell us consume is in china were able to place orders at the same time as everyone else this year, different than the one-month
delay last year. funny wrinkle though. apple's online store inaccessible to some users for a few hours, after preorders for the new phone were due to begin. apple's stock closed up today. i'm back with portfolio advisors lee munson, harris financial group, jamie cox. jamie, is apple overvalued or undervalued? >> i think it is right where it needs to be right now. i actually owned stock earlier in the year, sold it. so i'm not an owner at the moment. i do like the fact sales are definitely better and more broad based but in the u.s. and china. gives us better clarity what the per sale unit volume will be. i'm positive on the stock. you have apple tv. ipad pro. you have watch, new software for the watch. i think you're leading up into the christmas season. portends well for apple devices. certain cadre of people who buy devices no matter what. leasing programs available with
carriers like sprint, t-mobile, verizon, at&t, gets people to buy up. you can buy a lot more expensive phone because you can finance the thing with installment sale as opposed putting $200 down to upgrade. it will pull sales forward for people who had to wait for contract expiration, et cetera. definitely a positive on the front end for the stock no doubt. deirdre: jamie, you're apple bull. lee, i want to bring you in. what is the right price for this sock? >> i, if i had to really take a guess or stab at it, look into my crystal ball i would say 15 to 25% less than what it is right now. and i think you have the opportunity to see that if they have a few missteps. what my clients, mostly like retired people in the southwest and viewers want to know why is this so important right now? what is really important apple selling in china, their site has, it got overrun, please. when their site goes down, think about how much free publicity that is.
chinese are buying, number one. number two, i'm leery about the leasing program. we've seen other companies try to get into the leasings of their products to move more product. i'm not sure it is going to be the quality that apple wants. remember apple has done great to selling luxury products for people that like luxury products. once you go downstream, it will be problem for geniuses at store, and bring a whole class of people could ruin the panache and flair. versus seeing somebody earning minimum wage with android. deirdre: "barron's" basically saying apple plan to lease phones and offer upgrades could lead to 50% pop. they have a different take than you do. why do you think that this will hurt their business? >> oh, yeah. well, i'm not sure it will hurt their business but the idea there is going to be 50% pop and it's a no-brainer we've seen this before. think about general electric, different company, trying to get
into financing arm from the core manufacturing business to make more profits and to move more products. in the end when you rely on financing schemes to move more products i think you're at tail end of market saturation. so i don't think we'll get everybody who has a lower pocket share to spend in america. what is next? are we supposed to expect we sell apple phones in sub-saharan africa? there is a limit to this stuff. i think leasing thing will not be the pop people want. short term there is degenerate gamblers a bet. maybe it has a pop. deirdre: lee munson, thank you. jamie cox from harris financial group. donald trump will be speaking this evening, 7:00 p.m. eastern time. 20,000 people expected to attend. fox business will be bringing you the event as soon as it starts. that is in just a few hours. when we come back, getting back to business. the finance world, 007.
wall street decisionmakers and global business leaders go to him for advice. lazard's vice chairman, gary parr here next. ♪ >> bond, james bond. ♪ your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next.
second biggest buyer of treasury saying they are selling treasuries will affect u.s. markets and confidence. as decision makers note with that is what makes the business world go round for strategic thinking and with that in mind we bring in expert and a "fox business exclusive" welcome back to the program. i know you travel all over the world spending time recently in china. how do see their growing pains and how would affects business globally? >> it has consequences as i think the markets have reacted to the short-term. one but curiously i think in the short term it is exaggerated.
and with exporters with their growth opportunities. deirdre: does this change the advice that you give? you help companies think more clearly to find solutions. >> it does it in a sense because volatility affects how you think about their strategy. so one month with of volatility is in effect but it begins to sink in and. it really slows down mergers and acquisitions because people were afraid of what is around the corner or what is coming next. deirdre: so you do have clients say i know we've talked about putting together the deal but i cannot do that right now. >> and until we talk about
we help the clients manage risk. there is a reasonable chance that some transactions that the west is back from labor day is that volatility was unusual bin to go back to stability or not. deirdre: gary, what are you hearing from your clients? what is there level of concern or maybe not all, but with the volatility are they more anxious than a few years ago? >> the issues so we changed. but interest rates. whether the fed raises interest rates doesn't affect merger activity 25 basis points does not matter. but the consequences causes the stock market but in and of itself it is not that big
of a deal. deirdre: let's talk about investors that it matters a lot especially with merger and acquisition and ideas. >> it is crazy with the corporate tax policies that we have now to read encourage u.s. companies to sell themselves to foreign companies because now that they are discouraged. >> we have to level the competitiveness otherwise the consequences are draconian. >> i am sure they always play a role but deerfield they are more cumbersome now zero or potentially from the past? >> yes. the u.s. has the highest marginal tax rates in and though world so that creates
an opportunity for companies outside the u.s. and to reduce the part of the business. having the highest tax rate is not dead good place to be with the overall policy matter. >> is there innovation left in the banking sector? >> so much. than i know you spent time on this but it is fascinating to see how the change is taking place what they can do with technology with retail level of advisers such as mobile applications. so much regulation deals with capital risky and things like that. the next area of risk is cyber security and other
things. deirdre: jaime diamond said watch out wall street silicon valley is coming. >> absolutely it is the biggest risk and an opportunity. not that it was bad the ones you stabilize the financial side they are vulnerable or they can be winners if they have technology right. deirdre: if they are 21 years old to say you were very successful i could be a programmer or a more towards the banking career what do you tell them? >> it is interesting. big bank has the same opportunity as when i started. they are going through a dramatic change reducing growth opportunities. having said that, of finance is a very attractive area. focusing on specialty areas like giving financial advice
is say high growth area. even being a technology% could be an interesting place to me. deirdre: if you have a specialty duet well. thank you so much. vice-chairman of lazard. we have a quick break the company managing hillary clinton private e-mail server says there is no evidence of this server being wiped out so tens of thousands of deleted emails can now be recovered. our experts will join us will tell us how to wipe your server at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good.
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>>. >> but my personal emails are my personal business. i have no idea that's why we turned it over. with a cloth or something? i don't know how it works digitally at all. deirdre: not was hillary clinton exchanging heated words with fox news ed henry there are details are emerging about the private e-mail server. the company she employed says they have no knowledge of the server being wiped out. all information and says it was not. my guess is with me to say there is a right way and wrong way to wipe a server. from your expert pointed you what is going on? >> i wish we knew.
we get so many conflicting signals it is hard to tell what is going on. the latest is that the server was not wiped the emails were just a beaded and i can explain the difference. when an e mail is written it is cut up into little pieces than the hard drive has instructions to say put a little piece year put a little piece there. when you delete it to the instruction goes to the hard drive to save those spaces that is broken up into many pieces and now they are free or unallocated. you can put more data there in the future. that is always going on whether a computer horror server the swapping of what
is needed and then to write over is all you say is this space is now available to use at any time in the future. if you delete it it does not mean it is gone you can recover that e-mail. deirdre: you describe that well so the of pieces of the puzzle that is to say that you can go back to put those pieces together and recover the data. >> that's right you don't need to recover all of that. when you e-mail or text you have a conversation back-and-forth they do involve other people if you copy to them if i can recover large portions i don't need to recover 100%
to know what was being said a lot can be recovered just by recovering pieces. wiping the server means that you overwrite all of those portions of the hard drive with random 0s and 1s. if they don't execute properly but if it is, then you need to look somewhere else for that e-mail and that is also key. if i take my laptop and i say i don't like this it is just on my a commute -- computer if i do it right it will be gone a bit of research to e-mail then it is out there so i don't need the entire server to know the conversations i can go into other services to see
the conversation. deirdre: and taking us all to a computer school. thank you. from data clonal labs. more than half the students defaulting on student loans according to reports my next guest says he is attracting big investment dollars and we will tell you why. 70 percent of americans have no idea who this person is. called the most powerful woman in business. >> day you know, who she is? >> no. >> she looks familiar. >> not a clue. ♪ have you ever thought, "i could never do that"? have you ever thought... you just didn't have anything left in the tank?
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students default on their loans according to read a report raising more than add $300,000 of cash what gave you the idea? >> with the university student last year i was terrible to manage my money and never showed how much money i had. so i used another application to help me track my spending but it was not linked together that was in showing how much money you had where it is going and also to predict the bank balance in the future. deirdre: i'm interested of the different role in the u.k.. student dead in the united states is the biggest amount of debt outside of mortgages with $122 trillion.
i thought it was a little less in the u.k.? >> it is slightly less in the u.k. but also in the tuition fees are going down as well but they are going up in the way so it is more like the united states. deirdre: so in other words, of has expansion possibilities right here is a north america? >> definitely is not just needing help managing money we already have emails from america and asia and canada even other places it europe. deirdre: we will check in with you to see how you are growing. with the co-founder and ceo. janet yellen hugh? we took to the streets to ask passers-by and we will share what we found. >> do you know, who this woman is? >> janet yellen the
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usaa, they just really make sure that you're well taken care of. usaa car buying service. powered by truecar. online and on the usaa app. deirdre: do you know, who this woman is? >> i recognize the face but i cannot tell you her name. >> janet yellen. >> i am from minnesota. should i know? >> she looks familiar. >> janet yellen. >> that looks like my hands. >> she is in charge of the current trip -- the country's finances. >> janet yellen she runs the fed. >> that is the biggest division right now all markets are focused to get out. deirdre: she is right. very much front and center
especially this thursday the fed may raise rates for the first time in nine years. if you didn't know you're not alone. 70 percent of americans did not know either. so be heard to be explain why her decision natters on thursday. it is tied everytime we want to borrow money? if you don't think of anything else that is the number 1.? >> how the stock market and bond market is behaving and in europe and china. deirdre: if i don't care about stocks if i want to get up mortgages the fed raises rates i will pay more >> absolutely credit-card debt same thing. there is literally no part
>> >> as the g.o.p. comes down to the g.o.p. battle the republicans and is ready to give up most of their values. tromps stays alive just a couple days away for the debate how does he keep the spotlight? and tonight may set the agenda. "making money" starts right now. ♪ >> will donald trump continue to