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tv   After the Bell  FOX Business  January 15, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST

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[closing bell ringing] that is since december 2003 oil closed below 30 dollars a barrel. melissa: we go straight to dan of private wealth in chicago at the cme, talk to me about the sell-off in oil, does it have momentum going into next week? i guess we don't have dan. you can see crude oil on the day, david, like you said, trading way below 30, that is what made the difference on the day. david: straight 5% down, a lot of questions about whether it was iran. because iran will be loosening some oil they had in barges, millions of barrels they have been stock piling. which is sitting out in barges in the gulf, as early as monday they may put it on the market.
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that sent oil down today, 29 out of 30 stocks in the red in the dow, dow tumbling over 2% today. here with what you should be doing with your money, scott martin united advisors chief market strategist, a fox business contributor, jason. john point view really management and dan shafer. we have bulls, we have bears and everyone in between. scott martin. we got a lot of weak number, it is not just about oil, walmart announcing they are closing about 150 stores in u.s., and hundreds morelle more, elsewhere. we have retail numbers down, it the market forecasting a recession? >> i think so far it is forecasting more bad news, if that continues that streak
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continues it will be a recession by middle of summer. this goes to back to some we talked about on the day it happened, that is the fed making a major policy mistake last month, this is the fallout from the fed saying that everything is okay in the economy, everything is okay in the credit market, kicking that liquidity punch bowl away. that is what the problem it. david: how much longer could we have had zero interest rates? >> i think you are right, the fed did that wa right in december. but as famed ebb couldist paul samuel said, the stock market predicted 5 of last 9 recessions, just because there is volatile does not mean that u.s. economy is near recession. we justedded 292 thousand jobs last month. david: how many people pulled out of the job market? a lot of these numbers are misleading, the numbers that
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are bullish on the economy are misleading, we heard a lot coming from the president during his state of the union this week. but the numbers, the retail numbers they look awful. >> they are all wrong, they are false numbers. david: wait? retail numbers or good numbers? >> they, just these numbers, they are seasonable they make them up, i would like to audit the numbers, it is below 19600 level, this unemployment rate is false because participation rates are back to the '70, people are not working, they are not getting wages to support inflation in this economy. we're going into a negative gdp, the market has finally woken up because the fed i don't think they are doing anything. david: there is a neutron bomb that fed has been threatening
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the world with, that is negative interest rate. janet yellen has spoken positively about using negative interest rates where you would have to pay a bank to take your money. saying maybe this is a tool they have in their arsenal if we face a recession. that would destroy ever. i do' to point out, i don't think they made a policy error in raising rates, but i think they made a massive, major communication error, they tell the market over and over, that we want to hike rates 4 times this year, that is why we're down. david: that is what has caused them to lose credibility, they
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lower interest rates, and guess what in treasury rates have kept going down -- excuse me, the fed raise rates, treasury rates are going down, that is not supposed to happen. >> right, thank you, david, stock market has gone down since fed hike rate, if it was such a good idea, john, you know, the economy, the economic data, that fed is selling us may follow whether it is inflation, consumer spending retail sales, gdp, and job growth, guess what? that is all down, and dropping since the fed said, hey it's okay we're ready to move, that is the problem. david: john, what does the fed do? >> fed will probably raise rates one or two times throughout the course of the year, but it all depends on jobs data. things are not falling off a cliff from an economy sta
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stand point, wage are still growing close to 2.95%. we did add 210,000 jobs per month last year. >> john, the -- >> hold on. >> we had positive job growth every quarter since -- >> scott go ahead. >> atlanta, said gdp growth is less than 2%. that could drop further it has dropped from previous predict, we're not growing at 2% any more. david: dan, i do not think that fed the stand pat, this is an activist fed, if that happens if scott is right, and the numbers look bad and worse and worse, what happens? >> they make the same mistakes they have made for a hundred years, try to determine how the economy looks forward and talk about negative interest rates. they cannot control it. where the deflationary spiral,
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you cannot control deflation. inflation you can control with higher interest rate, deflation it could take 5 to 10 years for the prices to plate. david: is is not going to help the economy but hurt savers, they are already getting brunt of the zero interest rate, melissa has a guest. melissa: dan is watching the plunge in oil, all right we tried to get you before, talk about the sell-off in oil today, if you think it continues in to next week. >> you know, oil sell-off will continue, there is a lot of fear about iranian production come back on, sanctions are lifted, they think it might happen this weekend, you can't mistake what is going on in oil with the market, people are using if as a trigger, that not the case, this is a supply issue right now not demand.
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let's pay attention to the i economic fundamentals further down the line if we see continue weakness in thetic check market move would be -- in the economy this market move would be justified. melissa: part of what is driving down crude oil in u.s. is brent, and that is china, also you know you see oil drop off here in the u.s., that drags down the stocks you see in the dow whether exxon or chevron, major movers within the index, this is all releyted. >> no -- related. >> okay, no, there are a couple points let's go to global demand, i looked it up last week, demand is not going down, in 2014 it was up 1.1%. in between 2015 up 9.7%, the growth is still growing even in china demand is going up
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this not a demand issue, as far as energy, no doubt it is affectin affecting. >> we have to look at is what the consumer doing. and i will agree with you on this consumer based on retail sales was not that good but let's see over the course of a moon or two -- month or two not one day. melissa: thank you, dan, appreciate you for coming on david. david: the dow ended up above that 400 point loss, just barely, down about 390. that is where it settled, liz claman on the floor of new york stock exchange this is a long weekend, what are the traders doing this weekend? liz: they will take their pillows put them over head, peter tuchman. always pulling his hair out he
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said liz we're lucky we didn't choice -- close down 550, we closed down 390 on a tough day, but his gut feeling is we have option expirations. fancy way of saying people had to chose out their books just seeming a buying imbalances. david: usually that area behind you is cleared out at 4:00, they are checking all of their various data points. all rightism making sure. david: thank you very much. >> melissa: panel is back now, with our very own gerri willis, people are looking at this sell-off today, and the dow down 1500 points for the year. they are worried about their 401(k)s. >> i know this feeling, we fell it this week and since the beginnings of year and december, everyone is unnerved, worried about what
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the future will bring, i have to tell you, watching these indexing fall like on this chart right now, the volatility is difficult and not the best choice in the world to sell into a market like this. especially if you hold mutual funds, because funds take a while set, you don't sell a fund unless it is an ecf like a stock, my advice is to sit tight, wait, and see where it shakes out. where the good shots might be in maybe you have your eye on something, a stock or mutual fund, maybe it is time to start shopping. melissa: this is the flip side of it. half of the crowd saying i'm worried about my 401(k), and others are whispering, is it time to buy? i think that is crazy right now?
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what do you think scott martin? >> it depends on what you are buying, if you are looking at something out there as far as gold, that we've talked about before, the dollar, a bond that may be in high are grade area -- higher grade area, not high yield but high grade corporates, they have been okay, there are asset classes out there that you could look at add addition the to your portfolio, just round out the edges takes down the volatile. that is really where you need to be positions, look at some utility stocks and dividend payers they are hanging in okay, they are down but reduces volatile. melissa: jason, a question i heard how about high flyers, technology, google issue facebook? those names are
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a huge amount of irons in the fire, if you like dollar cost averages, facebook and microsoft are two candidates. melissa: dan shafer you are shaking your head, do you think that jason is insane? >> not insane but in this environment, i think that facebook is way overvalued based on what they can deliver future, i am not longer short the stock but disclosure but i don't think they will generate revenues that people are anticipated based on the economy growth that is going negative over the next year or so. melissa: john, what do you do here? what would you tell people to do? >> we think there are chances to buy ferraris for the price of a ford, to use that analogy, one name is ford,
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trading 6 times earning, a dividend 4. 70% yele yield. investment grade balance sheet, we're looking for high quality big cap value stocks. melissa: but to remember if you take that advice, be prepared to stick with it, to go down a little bit more, before it returns in this market, thank you all of you. >> all right i notice you and gerri are wearing red today. david: first republican fight night of the year, who won that battle between donald trump and ted cruz? houhoward kurts to break it down, winners and losers of fox business debate. >> i've spent my life defendings constitution before the u.s. supreme court, i am telling you i am not taking legal advice from donald trump. if you take multiple medications,
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see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. david: the dow ending below 16,000 for first time since august. we've seen a lot of volatility this year, what do you look at next week with a long weekend coming up, steven? melissa: hm . david: i'm in the hearing steven, i am a pretty good lip reader but i cannot translate verbatim. did someone turn his mic on? let's move on -- >> tuesday night i watched story time with barack obama, i got to tell you, it sounded like everything in the world was going amazing. >> she did say there was anger. i could say i'm not angry, i'm very angry, because, our
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country is being run horribly. and i will vla gladly accept the mantle of anger. >> that capture our fighting men and women, will feel thes for you force of fury of the united states of america. >> she surge investigation with the fbi right now, if she gets elected her first hundred days might be going back and forth between the white house and the court house, every person here is better than hillary clinton. >> i was mentioned too. >> you were. >> he said everybody. melissa: that was pretty good, plenty of firework at fox business debate, the candidates duke it out. howard kurtz predicted a blood bath, he is joining me now to
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talk about who walk away bruised. thank you for joining us, i thought it was a pretty good one, let's start with donald trump, it feels like he turned to the corner here. the washington post saying what was unthinkable a few months ago, is no longer is his duringbility in the poles his standing have forced his rivals to confront the possibility he could lead the party. free beacon saying his race to lose, that is a reflection from the media, do you think that the public walked away with the same impression. >> i got news for washington post it has not been unknowledgeable for months, this is trump's best debate by a lot, he is more seasoned on that stage, that did breakthrough the public particularly when he showed his compassio compassionate
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side with answer on new york values, and what happened in lower manhattan on 9/11. it was a good debate for ted cruz, it was the ted and trump show, cruz was only candidate who could successfully stand up to trump. he showed what a good debater he is, some gave it to cruz on points but trump is still the frontrunner. melissa: did anyone else make big points last night in a way that you think would translate good. >> marco rubio has good debate, chris christie had good moment, jeb tried. it does not matter, the not just media focus but people chatting about is trump and cruz, right now it is a 2-man race, but with iowa just a couple of weeks away we thought cruz would win, trump is so relentless, i wonder if
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cruz can deal with the donald's relentless 24 hour attacks, tweeting at 2:00 in the morning. morning. melissa: howard thank you, i appreciate your input. >> good to see you. david: to steven's mic, there is a lot of concerns, i mentioned before that oil below trading below 30 dollars is what seemed to start the pessimism of the market today, it closed below 30, we have oil, retail sales numbers that they bad, china's mess, empire manufacturing what scares you or worries you most? >> macro economy data has been awful. and industrial product, the list goes on. next, wednesday, i think, we have the cpi, looking at the core cpi if that came in slightly hot, what would the fed do then. david: a great question. because they said before they want a little more -- i am not crazy about inflation, they
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would like more, they would be forced to raise rates at some point this year, right? >> right, and i mean, the macro economy data does not support further rate hikes at this time. some of the fomc members are making us doubt their ability it reason, but they are moving ahead with this, if they are forced to do so by inflation in a environment, if rates were normal it would be easing, this will be a big deal. david: incredible, it would force them to choose between the economy or the market. the economy or the market. and we'll see how -- where they choose, they are supposed to be good for the economy not focused on the market, wit new next week, thank you, steven glad we had your mic turned on. >> thank you. david: wall street fearing 2016 frontrunner, donald trump and hillary clinton, they share a similar policy that could mean a loss of billions to wall street. >> if i become president i could not careless about my
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melissa: this is the third consecutive week in a row stocks getting slammed today. here's a look at where the major indices ended the day. the dow down 390-point and at one point it had been down more than five and a point on the day that ended the day down two points, 4% the s&p 500, about two by 1%. look at the nasdaq getting hit the hardest on a percentage basis 2.75% and there's the colbert crude oil. when it dips below 30 deaths would be got things started here and it managed to close below 30. that's another big milestone along the way. david. david market turmoil hitting the 2016 race. wall street and attacked by both
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sides are i'll according to new report in the financial times. here's bret there are the anchor of special report on "fox news." it's good to see you bret. before we deal with the wall street side let's deal with the terror side. one thing that wall street all of the economies worried about is if donald trump's first aid trade war. he's talked about as much as a 45% tariff on stuff coming in from china and he spoke about that last night during the debate. let's point this out and get your reaction. >> i'm totally open to tariff. if they don't treat us fairly hey their whole trade is terror tariff. they can do without the tariff. it's not fair trade. david: part of the reason the markets have gone down so much in his years because of china. if we slap a tariff on their goods they are going to go down and that means the market goes down more. >> that's right in the bath the back of or do we saw in neil tracked the opinion to track the
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question last night and eventually got there. donald trump, he said he didn't say 45% of that wasn't true but "the new york times" today in an interview he said the terror should be 45% on chinese goods so yes that is scary i think for some obviously in your neck of the woods and i think it is something that is populist. it is something that people can rally around and it is something looking at it further there's a lot of concern about it. david: let's look at the other straight -- decided i'll be wall street loved to clinton pretty brought down the capital gains tax that they are very wary of hillary clinton, are they not? >> ar. i think it is contrast because they are less wary of hillary clinton than they are bernie sanders obviously so it's perhaps the lesser of two easel easel -- evils but they are wary
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of hillary clinton because of some of the think she's thing on interestingly i think they're also wary of donald trump on wall street in some the things he has talked about, getting ready -- getting rid of the carried interest and i think that factors into how they look at both of those. david: red there will be following all of this. special report "fox news" channel every night at 6:00 p.m.. melissa: the near values controversy coming to a head. the s.b. and republican debate. >> i think most people know what the new york values are. you are from new york? you might not but i promise you in south carolina they do. it's a fact. kind of like working from home equals not working. numbers look pretty good, how's it on your end dave? oh, the numbers look so good. dave, dave's on it.
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at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like reunions equal blatant lying. the company is actually doing really well on, on social media. oh that's interesting. i - i started social media. oh! it was david: a bloodbath on wall street the dow ended the day down 390-point, and it was down over five and a point earlier. let's go to liz claman the biggest losers and winners and there were some bright spots right liz? >> they are moving the furniture out right under me david. that's how bad a day it was. there were some green on the screens even as the dow fell 390 points in the s&p fell. if we look at them they are a disparate interesting repair chipotle mexican group did pretty well. the gaming company say they
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broke not in my kalpen las vegas i can imagine that people got the highrollers living in their and i minor the backrest lately but goldman is to have a nice move at $15 to the upside. what look the worst? if you look at the three laggards for the s&p and help, they came out with numbers yesterday. wasn't that the numbers were so bad that one division they can always count on on their big server division for enterprise did not do as well as people hoped they would so intel got hit, marathon and williams are the two energy names not a surprise they would go down to. on a day like this where there's so much concern it's the proverbial expression you would wonder what warren buffett what he did connect in a couple of reports over the past several sessions warren buffett was buying into pf x., phillips 66. he left the company. here's a guy is not afraid to go
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in and buy even when volatility is the strongest that we have the ps sex at the moment. it doesn't matter that he assets are huge portfolio lost billions over the last couple of sessions, he was still in probably buying. david: if i had 40 billion eye with a probably be buying two. liz thank you very much, have a great weekend. >> thank you, you too. >> since september the constitution hasn't changed. but the poll numbers have. >> you have a big lawsuit over your head. why are you running and if you become the nominee who the hell those of you can even serve in office? >> i hate to interrupt this episode i saw you on the senate floor flip your vote on crop insurance because they told you in iowa and last week we saw you flip on the vote for ethanol in iowa. that is not conservatism. as political calculation. >> i appreciate you dumping your
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research folder on the record. >> this is the difference between debate -- being a governor and senator. when you're a senator you get to talk and talk and talking the talk so much that no one can keep up with what you are saying whether it's accurate or not. this is a question on entitlement and the reason, you had your chance market when you blew it. here's the thing. melissa: rough out there. those were a few of many feuds and last night he did business debate. joining me editor chris stirewalt. there was a lot of pulling and out there. who do you think came out on top and he landed some punches? what you think? >> there were three material exchanges. the one that mattered the most, these things don't happen in a vacuum. we care about is a good theater and is adjusting to watch and it was all that but the question is does it have consequence beyond the debate stage?
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the second is three moments. one is when the question of ted cruz canadian activity was laid at his feet and he said that donald trump did it for political reasons, that he brought it up for political reasons and donald trump was forced to admit yes i did. melissa: i don't know he was forced to admit. he goes yet, i did. it is because you are rising the polls in our there's a chance need to talk about it. i think he effectively turned it around and by the way isn't that what -- he turned around the whole idea and he said yes they did do it is you are rising in the polls. >> i love you but i think donald trump, think that was the first loss that he has had on the debate stage. i think that was the first time in the past we have had these people deport the jeb bush is of the world who have said i'm willing to stand up to donald trump and he will now that he has had his cornmeal when i'm done with him and then they
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flake off into it corner. then there was the second exchange between cruz and trump and on that one trump decisively won because cruz was being too smarmy talking about how new york values in new york this and he was just dripping with it. he got way too out there and he hadn't prefigure what donald trump's answer was bound to be. the one he had given interviews already which was -- it's. melissa: let's listen to it. >> i think most people know exactly what new york alleys are. >> when the world trade center came down i saw something that no place on earth could have handled more beautifully, more humanely than new york. i have to tell you that was a very insulting statement that ted made. melissa: i originally thought new york values was a complement
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a complement. it turns out not to be the case. >> the humanity that humaneness donald trump said. that was a huge win for donald trump. so basically my scorecard for the top contenders as they went toe-to-toe and they each won exchange. i gave them the nod for the evening between the two of them. it's like when the cavemen were trying to hunt the woolly mammoth this was the first guy that figured out to put a sharper rock at the end of the stick before you poke the mammoth with it. perhaps eventually most consequential exchange was between marco rubio and ted cruz and ted cruz' flip-flopper he. and rubio, i went for cruz at the end because rubio really stuck it in. melissa: real quick because we have to go, do you think the other one-stop at denny's times in? at the question i keep getting
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on twitter and elsewhere. >> that's coming and for most of them it's a matter of about 16 or so days. they won't have to wait long. melissa: chris thanks so much. i take that new york thing as a complement all the time. i don't care. >> trump certainly turned into a complement for new yorkers. melissa: it's a complement. >> bring up 9/11 was a good move. carly fiorina didn't share this stage with hillary clinton or donald trump at that didn't stop her from going after the front-runners. coming up we will be talking to a supporter of fiorina. >> we need a president who understands technology in the oval office. mrs. clinton cannot wipe the server with a towel. many people clean their dentures
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david: this is a sped up version of what happened today the dow plummeting plummeting over fiber points driven lower by concerns over china's economy and a drop in oil to under 30 bucks a barrel. it ended at under 400 but still it was bad. >> in the fight against isis, saudi arabia is our ally, iran is our adversary and despite donald trump's romance with vladimir putin vladimir putin and russia are our adversaries. >> hillary clinton sits inside government and rakes in millions handing out access and favors and donald trump sits outside of government and rakes in millions buying people like hillary clinton. melissa: carly fiorina going on the offensive putting hillary clinton and donald trump on the receiving end. the former hp ceo may not be leading the polls but she's unleashing a series of attacks on the front-runners donald trump and hillary clinton. here to weigh in is loretta
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lepore georgia cochair of harley for america. thanks for joining us to let me ask you about some of these attacks on hillary clinton. we were watching the response the period of time or donald trump was saying i'm a sexist, 40 talking about? bill clinton is the one whose the sexist and you stood behind him and have helped trash the other women along the way. when carly fiorina, she waited a week or a little more and then she said she wouldn't have tea with bill clinton if she was hillary. do you think that went a little too far? there are so many people in the audience who have chosen to stay with their spouse. is that dangerous? >> i think carly was asked that question directly and she responded to it directly. one of the things that carly has pointed out consistently throughout the campaign is that trust is a key factor in being a leader and if you are going to be a leader in this nation people have to trust you in order for you to be effective. and what does trust me and?
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that means people have to know about you and every axis of her life carly has been out there talking. we look at the polls, people are responding to her. when you look at the polls they say she is strong and they say she is principled and that's because she just tells the truth. melissa maybe a lot of this fight between her and hillary, let me play another sound bite from last night and we will talk about it afterwards. tonight everyone knows you you can't wait to see a debate between me and hillary clinton. melissa: what do you think about that? it's very aggressive. one of the problems hillary has is that she is not likeable. does this mean carly fiorina puts her in the same camp? >> absolutely not. carly gets that response everywhere she goes when she says that. she has her eye on the prize. at the end of the day this is about winning the republican nomination and the opponent will be hillary clinton and every day
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carly is not talking about why she is qualified, what credentials she brings to the table, that she is trustworthy and why hillary clinton does not have those things. the american people poll after poll say they do not trust hillary clinton. i don't think that is equating each other. i think it's calling a distinction between what she brings to the table and what hillary clinton does not bring to the table. melissa: nobody anywhere near carly fiorina gets away with anything. thanks for coming on. >> thanks so much for having me. david: a great debate. the nightmare and wall street the dow's worst annual start the new year ever. how to protect your money, next. >> i think the best thing we can do to protect ourselves against china economically is to make our economy stronger which means reversing course from all the damage barack obama has done to this economy.
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david: the concerns over china and the lifting of the iran
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investor. what we be looking at? are you looking at china, oil, what? >> thank you david. never sleep for that matter so this weekend will be no different. let me tell you, here's the thing that scares me a little bit. contrary to jason's point that john bond market completely fell out of bed again. it had been stabilizing a year today and now dropped and gas is down. timmy david that worries me and they are cashing out a profit but what are they doing with their cash? >> you're putting it in the bank or saving it. they are keeping at home. i've spoken to a lot of people at the mad and that's exactly what happened in japan. i know you hate to hear japan but when they started to panic people save their money.
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this market right now like jason was saying there's german this amount of changes and things are happening with pricing this is making people uncomfortable so the fear factor has now entered into the marketplace. you do if your cash that? what would you do with the cash? >> i would wait david and this is going to sound super gross but it's friday afternoon so s
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melissa: the most talked about moment from the fox business event he did exchanging generating buzz on such a meeting quitting chris christie strong statement to the president. >> mr. president we are not against you. we are again sure policies. the american people have rejected your agenda and now you're trying to go around it. that's not right and saw constitutional and we are going to kick your rear ends out of the white house. and then you totaled him. you two had been through everything together. two boyfriends, three jobs... you're like nothing can replace brad. then liberty mutual calls, and you break into your happy dance. if you sign up for better car replacementâ„¢, we'll pay for a car that's a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance.
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>> hypotheticals for the fox business debate have been dominating social media. chris christy's message to president obama topped the list of top moments on twitter. followed by two heated exchanges between donald trump and ted cruz. david: and, folks, get what? if you missed any of the action, you can catch it all again here tonight 6:00 p.m. eastern time. i mean it's totally self-serving for me to say this. nobody is going to believe me, but i believe it was the best presidential debate i've ever seen. i've been a junky of these things ever since i was a kid.
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so i've been watching them for decades. it was just so -- the exchange between the fights and pulling things back a little when it got out of control, i think they did a hell of a job. >> yes. the moderators were fantastic. i'm not going to tell megan kelly you said that, though. david: oh, dear. risk and reward starts now. . deirdre: stocks got crushed at one moment the dow was trading down by more than 500 points. oil closed at a 12-year low, this is risk and reward, i'm deirdre bolton, markets sold off in europe, asia, all major embassies down more than 2%. adam shapiro with me now. so, adam, china's stock market fell overnight. it affected everything else. how much did that weigh on our sentiment? >> it's weighing quite a bit. i mean you might consider


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