tv Wall Street Week FOX Business May 13, 2016 8:00pm-8:31pm EDT
i love it. lou: in our online poll, 75% of you say democrats are far more divide than republicans, poor thing. thanks for being with us. good night from new york. [♪] >> announcer: this show has never been solely about investment. we talked about anything that affected people and their money. from will, nevada, the new "wall street week." gary: welcome to "wall street week." i'm gary kaminsky.
anthony: i'm anthony scaramucci. we are coming to you from the investing conference at bellagio in las vegas. it's hosted by my firm sky bridge capital where we are bringing together the top mind in investment, politic and entertainment. gary kaminsky we have larry summers, it's fair to say you are a supporter of hillary clinton. what would a donald trump presidency mean for the united states economy? >> it scares me. i don't know of a greater threat to our prosperity. i think policy would be extraordinarily erratic. i think there are great risks to the global economy. great risks even going to the government, credit. domestically i think it would put an uncertainty premium the like of which we haven't even
before into the markets. anthony: do you think some of the kfg coming from the candidate is coming from the tactic and adaptability where sometime people in the political community are confusing as mixed principles? >> anything is possible. it's an experiment i don't want to run. i don't think the u. seattle government is meant -- i don't think the u.s. government is meant to be run like a questionable business deal. as things come out of his past, that's an experiment we don't want to run. the kind of volatility his investments have had is not the kind of volatility america need. anthony: trump has talked about renegotiating some of the national debt. >> this isn't the presidential election in argentina or bolivia. it's america. it's a principle that our debt is always good.
i can't manage renegotiating it. anthony: do you think this is posturing from the candidate and an exposition of his entrepreneurial adaptability rather than swerving of principles? >> that's for him and his supporters to discuss. but i think some thing are sacred. and the credit worthiness of the youth is one of them. if you are considering being president of the united states. here is another thing. entrepreneurial adaptability may be right when you are building casinos. i don't think volatility is what we are looking for in the presidency of the united states. have much -- very much the opposite. anthony: if he were president an called you. >> i do ridiculous hypothetical questions, anthony. when public officials seek my
advice i fr -- i try to provide. but i would not be comfortable working in an administration where they were in profound disagreement with many of the basic policy thrusts. gary: i want to go to hillary clinton. but fine question on donald trump. do you think he will bring the party together? >> i'll stick to economic prognostication. good try. it's hard enough for me. anthony: he's a tennis player the way he swat you. gary: a hillary clinton presidency as far as the economy would look like what? >> we know some thick. we know that over the last 60 years when democrat have been in
power the economy has grown faster. the to be market has done better. the fiscal performance of the country has been better. that's a consistent pattern. i first wrote a paper demonstrating that in 1988. the way you test a relationship in economics is not to see if somebody mined the data to find it. but after somebody said there was a relationship, what would happen going forward. if you look at what happened going forward, pretty consistently performance has been better with democratic presidents than republican presidents. gary: same hold true if bernie sanders becomes the nominee? hillary clinton has still not wrapped this up. what happens if bernie sanders is going to be -- >> i won't get into every possible hypothetical. as a general rule market and the economy do better. i'm more comfortable with
senator clinton's policies than i am with senator sanders' policies on a number dimension. we do need to address inequality, but we need to do it together in the spirit of lifting all the boat, not deciding that some boats the tide should lift and other boats the tide should not lift. anthony: is the economy picking up steam or are we at the end of the recovery? >> i think we are closer to the recovery's end than the beginning. just statistically. i don't see anything like a majority probability on a recession starting in the next year or so. over the next few years, i think the risks are certainly there. anthony: you think the fed will raise rate this year? >> the market is saying it's very unlikely they will raise
rates twice in the way the dots are and the odds are close to half, not better than that that they will raise rates this year. i think that the market tell you more about what's likely to happen than the dots are. gary: when you joined us last year you warned the fed shouldn't raise rates and they did. and the equity market had a significant correction. >> i don't think it's the fed's job to control the stock market. i did say that there was no pressing inflation threat. i think i proved to be correct about that. i did say it didn't look like the economy was going to take off and start booming. i think i was correct about that. and i said we are in a period which i call secular stagnation where the normal interest rate in order to keep the economy going is going to be much lower than we are used to. i think that's playing out.
anthony: we'll be right back. we'll talk to professor summers about market stagnation. >> announcer: larry summers is one of the top economists in the united states and the world. will the u.k. lead the european union? and what will that mean for the u.k., your and the world? >> a big mistake for europe, the united states and for the world. >> announcer: that and more coming up from las vegas.
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businesses want to invest which means there is downwards pressure on interest rates, always the prospect of bubbles in existing assets because people don't want to create new ones. a tendency toward slow growth and low inflation. it's a defining malady in the industrial world. the word secular means it will be with us for a long time. i think we are talking about a decade. and beyond that it's hard to be visible. it doesn't mean things won't ever be strong. but the tendency will be toward weakness. the zero lower bound on interest rates which many people thought was a one-off episode associated with the financial crisis is always going to be a concern. that doesn't mean interest rates will always be zero, but there will always be a concern. on past patterns the odds are
50% we'll have a recession in the next three years. there is no way we'll have the 400 basis points of room that the fed usually uses to respond to a recession. so we are a more brittle economy than any of us are used to. anthony: we have millions of viewers watching the program who need to live off their savings. it's been a struggle for them since 2008. i know you don't want to give financial advice. but what type of thinking should they put into their own mind? >> if we as a country were more focused on investment, public and private, infrastructure and also removing barriers from the tax system, the regulatory system to private investment, they are left of center and right of center answers. more pro investment. if we do a good job of protecting social security so people can feel comfortable
spending that will help push the economy forward. i think people have to be careful in managing their own lives not to take on excessive risk just because they are frustrated by the low level of rates. that's like starting to throw the ball on every play early in the third quarter, and even if you are behind, it usually ends in grief. tone rrp let's talk about the u.k. government's referendum next month about possibly leaving the eu. what are your thoughts on that? >> june 23. big mistake for britain, big mistake for europe, the united states and the world because it would represent a break of traditional ties that have generated large amounts of business and commerce.
it would be a lurch towards protectionism. because it would threaten the city of london as the global financial center. anthony: in your fin free trade is good? >> we want more open markets in general rather than less open markets. but free trade means no rules. that's certainly not the kind of trading system we want. anthony: why do you think the candidates have tapped into this seismic feeling in the american population about free trade and nafta and the tpp. >> people are frustrated. and they want somebody to blame. easiest thing to blame is foreigners. here is the truth. rightly or wrongly, the united states has had hugely open markets for 40 years. we haven't let more product in because of our trade agreements.
what our trade agreements have done is cause other country's openness to catch up with the united states. that's a positive for the united states. that's why i supported nafta, i supported the wto. i support the tpp. not because i'm unconcerned about the effects of trade on the u.s. economy. we need a much more aggressive strategy for dealing with that. but because we are not take more of those risks bypassing this agreement, and we are getting a lot of market access in other countries. gary: president obama is writing the narrative on his legacy. he said he made the decision to push obamacare instead of a infrastructure bill. was that a mistake? >> history will have to be the judge.
one of my biggest regrets from that period that the country did not launch a longer and more sustained public investment program. i think we would have a stronger economy if we did that. but i think we have got and lot of economic benefit from what happened in healthcare. the fact that the healthcare cost curve has been bent is a big win for america. gary: more from salt in las vegas after this. >> announcer: some of the greatest minds in the world are meeting in las vegas this week to discuss the greatist issues covering our economy, and security. every day you read headlines about businesses being hacked
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anthony: what do you think will be the catalyst that will bring it market down? >> the risk of donald trump actually winning. anthony: do you fear it? >> i don't. i think the discounting of a potential trump win is something you need to hedge yourself against. anthony: what's the probability? >> it's been radically changing. do you think he's going to win? >> i think there is a very good chance. i do. anthony: welcome back. we are in las vegas at the 2016 salt conference with global leaders and super stars of entertainment and sports gather to discuss critical issues for the year ahead. anthony: joining us now to discuss the big takeaways are fox business all-stars police claman and charlie gasparino.
liz: one of the highlights was when boone pickins said donald trump is a pain in the [bleep] but he will support him because it's look for change. we here at when thrajio had -- at the bellagio saying they are doing the best they have done since before the financial crisis. gary: liz, you were at the first salt. how many people were at the first show? 350? where this has become now, the intersection of everything. this is -- first all, i'm thrilled with fox business and anthony that we are part of the family. charlie: we actually have a camera now. i used to cover it with my cell phone.
gary: what typically happens is the information is absorbed and would not be strange in the next several weeks as people talk about their outlooks for the balance of the year. many of the things discussed here -- liz: people are looking for the ground zero of the best ideas in business. it's becoming harder and harder to make money in this world, whether it's regulation or competition. what you provided is something that gives people that inside sort of edge. charlie: from a lot of people here, you can't get a better cross-section of thought leaders here. we give it back to the viewers. the average fox viewer gets an insight into some of the biggest thought leaders in politics and business. and that's rare. that's how the markets work. anthony: what about boehner's
reaction saying trump can win and laying out a detailed plan to how he can win. charlie: john boehner's problem was donald trump. that's the irony of it. the reason he's not the speaker of the house is the republican party has moved in a populist way. and he was one of the guys the average trump supporter despises. i'm not saying john boehner is a bad guy. but if you talk to the populist wing of the party, they will say we are sick of the deals, we are sick of going along with everything obama has done, they are screwing the average american voter. liz: i found that he seemed extremely relaxed. very comfortable with supporting donald trump. he brought up ted cruz. he said i was so amazed it made news that i called ted cruz
lucifer because i said it about 7 times. he has virulent negativity. anthony: speaker banier is unplugged and it's refreshing. charlie: he says it's hard because the parties are polarizing these days and it's hard to govern. charlie: he's supporting one of the most polarizing guys in the world. gary: so he will do a 180? charlie: i think the glacier is melting. liz * he will negotiate. he wrote the book "the art of the deal." gary: we had a lot of movie stars and celebrities the last couple years. liz and i on wednesday night had the opportunity to spend time with will smith. i was amazed and i think you are as well.
he has an interesting business. i think a lot of people don't realize he's a very smart guy. liz: he sticks to his principles and i asked about his controversial movie "concussion." and i said have you heard from the nfl? he said no, but they pulled my super bowl tickets this year. but he didn't care. he realized from all of his research that this is an issue. he wouldn't let his kid play football today is what he told me. gary: we have to run, liz and charlie. thanks for joining us at the salt conference in las vegas. anthony: next week we have helping fund manager jamie dimon. you won't want to miss.
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