tv Countdown to the Closing Bell With Liz Claman FOX Business May 17, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
with all the talk of a gop breakdown, what do you know? it's the democrats that seem to be in crisis. tell me what you think. we'll keep the conversation going. in the meantime, ashley webster's got you covered on this selloff, off 189, in for liz. ashley: i lo. wow, what's going on? wall street giving up all of yesterday's gains and more as oil hits another 2016 high. markets near session lows, the dow industrials off 187 points, it was down 227 points just a short time ago. to politics, the 2016 presidential campaign trail leading through kentucky and oregon today. only democrats are voting in the bluegrass state while voters in both parties will cast their votes out west. hillary clinton hoping to end the winning streak of senator bernie sanders. the vermont senator won indiana and west virginia while also attacking presumptive republican nominee donald trump in a new campaign ad. we'll look at that. trump, meanwhile, is out with
his new web video of his own describing what he'll do on his first day in the oval office. we'll beasking katrina pierson about the billionaire businessman's white house plans. and oil's big drop causing chaos in caracas, basic necessities nowhere to be found in venezuela as toopec nation falls into a state of emergency. the former u.s. ambassador to venezuela is here to describe the reality of the situation and its possible impact on america. ambassador charles shapiro will be joining us. plus, the very latest on the iran deal hearing. we're doing some wall street watching as well and, oh, yeah, charlie gasparino, he'll break it. with less than an hour to the closing bell, i'm ashley webster in for liz claman. let's start the "countdown." ♪ ♪ ashley: well, a bear brawl for the markets today. right now the dow off nearly 200
points, bouncing around around that 200-point loss. here are today's biggest movers. we call it the retail ice age. what's going on? lots of names in the retail industry continuing to hit multi-year lows today including names like office depot, big five sporting goods. those stocks moving lower. also the big department stores like nordstrom and macy's and apparel plays such as elle brands, the one behind victoria's secret, gap, buckle and stein mart. tough day for these names. home depot, the biggest home improvement chain, reporting better than expected sales. the company said inconsistent weather was a driving point for sales, raising their guidance, and they are rewarded with a stock price that is going down some 2.5% in a tough environment today. well, to politics, and voters are taking to the polls today in kentucky. hillary clinton has been stumping in the state for the last few days as she tries to stop the momentum of rival
senator bernie sanders from extending his string of victories. when asked how he thought today's vote would go, here's what sanders had to say. >> well, i feel about oregon and kentucky the way i usually feel, and that is if there's a large voter turnout, i think we'll win. i haven't lost yet, have we? we'll see what happens. our goal, we have been working really hard in both states to bring out a large voter turnout. ashley: he seems confident, smiling. jeff flock is on the ground in prospect, kentucky, listening to what the voters have to say today. jeff? >> reporter: he's smiling because he's not here many kentucky right now -- in kentucky right now where a 20% voter turnout is forecast. maybe you see this polling place here. three different precincts, it's been light all day. apparently, that's the way it is across much of the state, a state that hillary clinton took very, very seriously unlike some of the other states that she's lost to bernie sanders in. she was here multiple times, 12
separate stops over the course of the past several days. taking the state very seriously. it's a real choice for these voters. some of these democratic voters really kind of torn between these two candidates. we talked to one guy who, i think, articulated it very clearly. >> we were conflicted as to who to vote for in the democratic primary. thinking that hillary clinton probably is the presumptive nominee, and so we wanted to provide some support for the democratic nominee. but our hearts were telling us that we really, really like bernie sanders. we were just talking and said, gosh, i kind of feel like i sold out bernie sanders. so, but i think sometimes, you know, politics is the art of what's to possible. >> reporter: the art of what's possible. we'll see if it's possible for bernie to pull it off here. it would be a big loss for her if she were to lose this one. she really has been pointing up
though. her strengths in this state, like her husband, who won in kentucky in both '92 and '96. she also won here as a presidential candidate against barack obama be in 2008 -- barack obama in 2008. so, ashley, we'll see where it goes. it's raining like heck out there, that does not help turnout, i can tell you. i'm glad i'm inside. ashley: yeah, good for you. 20% turnout, not a lot of folks yet, but there is still time. jeff flock in kentucky, thank you so much. well,
hillary clinton's also battling donald trump over the airwaves. >> you know, you could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, coming out of her wherever. does she have a good body? no. does she have a fat ass? absolutely. do you like girls that are 5-1? ashley: that's just one of two attack ads launched by hillary's super pac, priorities usa. you kind of get the sense where that's going.
lit air in the battleground states of florida, virginia
and ohio. both ads use trump's own comments in an effort to paint him as anti-women. mr. trump wasted no time in responding, tweeting this: amazing that cooked hillary can -- crooked hillary can do a hit ad on me concerning women when her husband was the worst abuser of women in u.s. political history. that's donald trump's response. i'm joined by democratic strategist steve murphy and republican strategist ron christie. thank you both for being here. steve, let me begin with you. we've seen this type of attack ad before. is it effective? >> i think it'd be effective. donald trump has horrendous numbers among women. his disapproval number approaches 70% among women, and that's because he's been, behaved in a misogynist fashion throughout the entire campaign. we want to keep that, as democrats n front of the voters. ashley: all right, ron, this is not the first time we've heard
this type of attack, is it effective? >> when you have the candidate in their own words saying comments like that, people are going to say -- ashley: he has apologized or pulled back from some of these comments, or is it too late? >> i think it's a little bit too late for some people. i think a vast majority of women are going to say i might not like this guy, but perhaps independents and democrats who he might need to win the presumptive race will say he might not get the women vote, but he might get some others. ashley: bernie sanders definitely has the momentum. look, hillary clinton could lose every state and still have enough delegates to be the nominee. however, if she continues to lose to bernie sanders, she kind of limps into the convention. how important is it that she takes kentucky today? >> i think it's important that she wins a primary or two between now and the general election and, excuse me, the convention. butting looking what her campaign has done is financially, organizationally
and in terms of her own personal campaigning, they have shifted their attention to donald trump, and they're paying a little bit of a price for doing that in the democratic primaries and caucuses. but it's really impossible now for bernie to win nomination, so i think they're making a sound decision. ashley: ron, it's interesting, it's going to be fascinating if, indeed, it is donald trump against hillary clinton which is what it appears to be. we know what hillary clinton's going to see -- say. we've seen her comments on women, lack of experience, a guy who's kind of a loose cannon in the white house, that's another expression she likes to use. what and how does donald trump counter all of that? >> i think if you look at the primaries that donald trump has done well particularly in the rest belt states -- rust belt states, the voters have said we are worried about the economy. she would represent a third term of the obama administration. if trump focuses on the kitchen table issues like the economy and what people want to hear and say how we're going to fix this
country, think he's got a shot. ashley: is he trying to become more presidential? do you think he's sounding more presidential? >> as a republican, ashley, i can only hope. [laughter] ashley: that doesn't sound optimistic. >> i'm -- the jury's still out with this one. ashley: all right. let me give last word then to steve. you mentioned bernie sanders dropping out. he's going to go the whole way, isn't he? >> well, i think he's going to go through california and new jersey, sure. ashley: yeah. >> he has clearly stated that his goal is to overtake hillary clinton in terms of pledged delegates. he's not going to get anywhere near that. that takes over 70% of the vote for him for the remaining states. ashley: so what is it about hillary that people just don't trust? in poll after poll, they don't trust her. is that her biggest weak spot? >> no, i don't really think that's a huge problem because it is a republican-driven narrative. the republicans have done a really good job of stoking up a controversy over something that
is absolutely nothing. in the case of the e-mails. ashley: ron? >> wow. ashley: you rascals, you, you've invented all of this. >> well, the former secretary of state created her own home brew server. she said she ran her base in bosnia under fire. there's story after story she's made up. she's not honest, she's not trustworthy, and nearly a majority of the american people agree with me. ashley: and the polls reflect that. steve murphy, ron christie, thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it. much more on the 2016 race later in the show including trump national spokesperson katrina pierson who will tell us what president trump will do on day one in the white house. here's a quick look at the dow 30 heat map for you. caterpillar leading the way, followed by dupont. jpmorgan chase unchanged, but a sea of red with the dow down nearly 180 points. coming up next, we're going to the floor of the new york stock exchange to do a little whale watching. our traders tell us what we can learn from the portfolios of
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canadian wildfire that continues to shift north in canada. the massive fire moved towards energy production facilities near the oil sands of fort mcmurray, albert that, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. the fire responsible for the loss of one million barrels of crude oil per day. the catastrophe is expected to cut about a third of a percent from alberta's gdp in 2016. tough to get those fires out. whale watching, not just a fun weekend activity. thirteen f filings from the world's most successful investors are out today, but if you're just about getting onboar you might not be too late. how are the experts playing it? traders at the new york stock exchange and the cme group and the nymex. let me begin with my good friend, stephen guilfoyle. sarge, let me ask you, first, about this selloff. is this all about decent economic data, inflation rising, better chance the fed will raise interest rates this year? is that why we're losing 200 points? >> well, yeah.
i mean, we had lockhart, we had williams and kaplan say, we had three fedheads -- none of which are voting members, but they're listened the -- and they all spoke in hawkish fashion today. we've had better headline cpi, not true core cpi, industrialization was better, retail sales are better, so april's to shaping up like a slightly better macro month. and don't forget the federal reserve is owned by the banks. they're not working for you and i, they're working for the banks. if the banks need a rate hike and these guys can justify it, they might just do it. ashley: very good point. danwork, -- dano, we like to cal him, george soros getting back into tesla, as an average investor, should we pay attention to what these guys are doing? you and i, can the average investor take stock of what they're doing? >> you know, i think it's
important to look at what, in fact, they're doing. they're long-term investors, certainly warren buffett is. so if you're a long-term investor, and most everybody is. you shouldn't be a trader unless you have really strong stomach for those types of things, they bought apple. apple's at 93, it's down 30% over the last six months. this is a quality stock. it's got a pe ratio of less than 12, it puts out a 2.5, 3.5% dividend. an investor has to target a company they think is solid and maven beaten down, and they've done that -- may have been beaten down, and they've done that. ashley: goldman putting out what was seen as a bullish report yesterday saying this global glut of oil is soon disappearing. we've seen oil gain nicely, crude up 48.51. where do we go from here? >> well, you know, it seems to me within the last month or two i heard goldman saying crude
oil's going to stay $20 forever. [laughter] >> that's true. >> it's possible they've flipped their own position. like the thing to remember is we're up 80% since the lows. i'm not going to argue that it could go higher because we sort of passed the levels where i like selling it. i think this $48 level is a number, but, you know, again, there is still plenty of oil, and production is lower, and there's lower rig count. i would also look at natural gas which is sort of stuck. i think that was a sale, and i think you could argue that crude oil, i think crude's going to bounce around in the $45-$50 range for a while now, to be honest. i don't think it's going anywhere. ashley: very good, we shall see. thank you so much, gentleman, stephen, dan and elliot, appreciate your comments. thank you. up next, the downside of socialism rearing its ugly head in venezuela. oil's drop crushing the economy. there's a state of emergency that remains in place. we have riots, food shortages, you name it. the former united states ambassador to venezuela tells us how the opec nation's instability could create more
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ashley: venezuela is in, quote, a constitutional state of emergency declared by the country's president. there are massive protests in the capital, crack rahs, and across the country as venezuelans deal with food shortage, power outages and a breakdown in the health care system. adam shapiro standing by with the latest in the chaos sweeping this south american nation. it's rough. adam? >> reporter: one way to describe it. u.s. diplomats, ashley, use terms like economic disaster and catastrophe to describe the meltdown taking place before our eyes in venezuela. shortages of food, electricity and medical supplies motivated protesters or to demand a recall referendum later this year on
leftist president nicholas me door row. it takes 30 days to validate a recall petition, but government employees in caracas? they only work two days a week. venezuela's president declared a 60-day state of emergency to deal with the developing chaos and failing economy. the government announced a deal with china in which it's going to trade oil to china for cash. that's ahead of large debt payments venezuela actually owes investors. china's lent $50 billion already to the struggling socialist country as it tries to deal with recession, food shortages and a drastic drop in revenue tied to the drop in the price of oil. venezuela sits atop the world's largest oil reserves, but the state company was nationalized in 2003 and owes $4 billion just in interest to service its debt this year, and oil shipments from venezuela have fallen for several years. inflation runs at more than
180%, and economists belief time is run -- believe time is running out for the president. trade between the united states and venezuela totaled almost $31 billion last year. ashley, when you hear people try to explain why there are food shortages on the drop in the price of oil, those food shortages were taking place long before the price of oil started to fall. they put price caps on food in place years ago to try to help people buy food. but by 2011, those price caps were failing, food was nine times more expensive in 2011 than it was when they first instituted the price caps. ashley: wow, what a mess. adam shapiro, putting it all in perspective. so the next question is, what happens next? and venezuela's okay cross actually impact the united states? well, for expert insight, we are joined by the former u.s. ambassador to venezuela, charles shapiro. ambassador, thanks for joining us. are you surprised by what you're seeing? is the result of a socialist government that, essentially,
spent all the money it got from oil without putting any away for a rainy day? >> you nailed it. the price of oil is cyclical. everybody knows that. when prices were high, they spent it all and didn't save anything. now they're low, and they're stuck. ashley: so what happens from here? i mean, we hear that the chinese are giving them some restructuring of the debt, but that doesn't help the people who can't get access to food, decent medical care, they're on two days a week in the public sector. they'ring with encouraged -- they're being encouraged to do that in the private sector. how far down does this country go? >> listen, every time i think venezuela's hit bottom, things get worse, and they will continue to do so. adam shapiro, my cousin -- [laughter] laid it all out. they, centralized planning doesn't work. those price caps don't work that they tried to set in place for food. in fact, it exacerbated the shortagings. the opposition -- shortages. the opposition is more unified
than it's ever been. it's working hard to get a recall referendum going, and the state of emergency called by the president, i think, if anything, has solidified the resolve of the opposition to recall the president. ashley: well, that's the question, of course, president maduro blaming the capitalists of the west for creating this, predictably. how does this all -- how could this impact the united states? >> well, fortunately, oil production elsewhere is up, and we're no longer dependent on venezuelan oil the way we were before. so i don't see it having a major impact on u.s. economy. i'd like to get those fires out near fort mcmurray and get canadian oil production back in line -- ashley: yeah. >> and that million bares a day of canadian -- barrels a day of canadian oil would be real nice. but the truth of the matter is with oil at the price it's at even if it gets up some more, the venezuelan government still
can't get out the fix it's in. ashley: so the question is can the president survive, you said the opposition is more united than it ever has been. i would imagine you would think getting a different type of government in there could be the only solution. >> look, never underestimate the ability of autocratic governments to stay in power. we've seen that around the world. if mismanagement were the reason for governments to get, to leave office, the north koreans would be the first to go. they can hold on, but i think that opposition is actually using the constitution that hugo chavez wrote. ashley: right. >> and to try to recall mad can uro, they're more unified than ever. oil prices are low. the brazilians, who poured money into chavez's elections and maduro's election are distracted and certainly aren't going to do that anymore.
ashley: yeah, aren't they ever. >> the organization of american states has got a secretary general who knows what democracy is and isn't and isn't afraid to say it. ashley: we will continue to follow what is chaos and a real mess. ambassador shapiro, thank you so much for your insight, we really appreciate it. >> it's a pleasure, ashley. ashley: okay. let's get back to the market. it is continuing to fall. the dow jones industrial average at session lows, down now 232 points. when we come back, we're heading back to the floor of the new york stock exchange for more on this big move lore. don't go away. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find
the nasdaq down one and a third, same with the russell and the transports up slightly higher. there's certainly an air, a bearish air of sell orders. is it all about the fed? let's go down to lori at the new york exchange and get her sense of what the traders are saying. >> it's a lot about the fed. and early this morning when the cpi, the consumer price index came out, and it basically showed the fastest increase in consumer prices in april. in more than three years. so obviously faster inflation supports the fed for raising interest rates. and a lot of analysts knows right during the course of the day and someone pointed out that the fed funs futures, an interest rate hike is june meeting. is now up to about 14% from about three or 4% just yesterday. and that of course comes on the heels of a drumbeat fed seekers who are basically leaving the door open once again for this potential rate hike come the june meeting.
so the knock on effect of all of this -- this talk is that we are seeing this selloff today. as you pointed out, the s&p 500 is one point now into negative territory for 2016. the dow is off about 214 points. so off the worst levels of the day. but 200-point loss on the dow. a day after, we saw a triple point rally. a lot of uncertainty of what to make of this market. now, retailers today hitting multiyear lows. and what's telling about this group, zero in on the home improvement retailer. shares down 3%, despite reporting better than expected earnings but decreasing the forecast for 2016. look at that. home depot down 3%. home depot just last week hit an all-time high. so that shows you where peoples concerns are. >> what would it be like if they reported poor earnings? you get beat up for good earnings. interesting stuff. lori, thank you very much. appreciate that from the
new york stock exchange. let's go to allen now with bull's-eye option at the cme. allen, quite a heavy selloff this afternoon. is it all about the fed as we heard from lori rothman, cpi is up, housing is up, all of this suggesting that perhaps the fed has more reason to raise those interest rates. would agree? >> i don't think they're going to. yes, those are positive things but in the big picture, still trading sideways for the last six weeks or so. a wide range where the market is going to make a decision where are we going to move next? obviously we're coming off the lows and backing off and as you saw with home depot, you have the sell the fact-type news. nothing but great things to say. everything was up and guess what? they just made all-time highs last week. and in anticipation with that, some people are using that as a reason to take some money off the table. so we'll have to see where things are on a weekly basis. but, you know, we're getting a lot of bounce.
i don't think the rate hike is going to happen. there's really just a small, small chance as you just alluded to there. but we've got coming up and i don't think that our policy is going to be changing ahead of something that substantial. >> that's interesting. the brecks is june 3rd. you say forget that a june raise. but by the end of the year, would it be more likely. >> yeah. it's certainly positive, but i don't think it's going to be a negative. i think it could be viewed as a positive. and, you know, raising it from a quarter of a point is not going to cause any ripples. we are still so far away, the median price in the fed futures is about 4.5% and look at where we are now. we would have to go up every quart for the four years just to get back to the midpoint. >> all right. allen, if you could stay there. let me get to steven now at the new york stock exchanges. i read your note that you put
out this morning and you also noted in that that 52% of americans own stocks. that's the lowest that number has been in 15 years. i would imagine the quits are the only game in town. why are people taking money out? >> equities pretty much are the only game in town. but at least for the short-term. if there's uncertainty regarding interest rates, they're going to take money off the table. take a look at the utility sector today. it's down 2% across the board. this is your dividend paying sector that competes directly with interest rates. look at the shortened of treasury yield curve. they're setting the shortened. this tells you that traders are preparing for a possible increase in the fed funds rate. maybe it doesn't happen but there is uncertainty. and when there's uncertainty, people take their money off the table. >> steven, utilities best performing sector of the year. what does that tell you? >> well, that tells you that people were searching for yields. i myself am involved in some of those. i take a certain part of my
portfolio all the time and make sure i gettives. if i'm wrong on my bets, i get a pay. but you see people taking that money off the table. >> volume down pretty light. 12%, steven. what do you read into that? maybe there's a conviction in the selloff. >> heavier than yesterday. yesterday we had an update, and it was really light. today it's a little bit heavier on the downside. so i don't know if there's conviction either way, but it seems to me like lately, within the last couple of weeks while we've been seesawing, the higher volume is on the down days. >> let's go to warren services at the imax. we saw so long the markets with oil. today it couldn't be further from that case. we see that movement -- decoupled is the word i'm looking for. have we decoupled from the price of oil in the markets? >> well, you know, yes, for sure.
we've talked about this a few times, and i do not like that idea at all. the idea of oil and stocks being considered. i mean i know that the movement sort of gave that appearance but i was not a believer in that now. crude is not a stock. we treat crude like a stock here because it makes it more interesting to talk about i guess. but really it's absolutely not. and i personally would like to see crude go lower. i just don't see that happening. so we'll see what happens. ashley: yeah, once it gets to a certain level, it's hard to get back down there. charlie gasparino joins us on the set now. charlie. >> i think it's kind of interesting today. a couple of things occurred. you heard mark cuban earlier. ashley: yeah. >> earlier today is -- and we spoke to him afterwards. we said what do you make -- is this true? did you really say this? could you elaborate? he said the market could go down 20% if donald trump is elected president. why the uncertainty? his trade policies, very protectionist, the uncertainty about taxes, he's waffling all over the place on this.
so we thought -- ashley: 20%. >> yeah. and i think the other thing is -- and i mentioned it in neil's broadcast. who his treasury secretary might be. there really is a question mark. there's a lot of financial people, runs sky bridge financial, it's a fund of funds. he's essentially a hedge fund manager and a few other people. carl icahn is backing up trump. but. ashley: with his experience in the world, uncled pick a good -- >> he's very populous, he's going to have a hard time getting a good treasury secretary or someone that the markets would like. ashley: yeah, but he says things and then backs off. >> that's the whole thing. that's why they're getting scared. there's uncertainty. that's what cuban is saying. so we went back and said look at hillary clinton. who might she appoint that might settle these skittish markets? and i tell you, if you're just looking at bona fides and background, we should put up a list up here. it's pretty interesting. ashley: yeah. >> number one would be larry summers. clearly.
top of the list. larry summers is the former treasury secretary for bill clinton. president of harvard, knows what he's talking about. ashley: he's got the credential. >> larry fink, very well respected in the markets. a guy that you hear about every now and then, tony james, the coo of blackstone, the big money management firm. ashley: i thought hillary thought these guys were the early doers of wall street. >> she loves these guys. bernie sanders hates these guys. the last is tom who now is at morgan stanley. hillary's former deputy of state. considered a really smart guy. so those are the leading contenders. it's interesting we can name easily -- i can name five more who might be hillary's treasury secretary from wall street. one of the established players. people that the markets like. very hard to do that with donald. the names i put up there -- >> that's the good news. >> go ahead.
>> aren't established players exactly who we don't want? isn't larry summers exactly who you don't want making -- >> listen, i'm not a big larry summers fan. >> no. not at all. >> i'm not a big larry summers fan, but am i missing something about the -- about the economy during his years? i don't know. it wasn't -- we weren't talking about 1.5% annual growth when larry summers was treasury secretary. not defending him. i'm just saying he has a good track record. ashley: let me ask you this. would you prefer donald trump even though the mark cubans of the world say the markets don't like him because he's unpredictable and protectionist and cuban says 20% drop on the market. what would you say to that, steve? >> i understand all day possible drawbacks. but in the state that our country is in right now, don't you want a businessman who's used to adjusting to the situation, who's used to being flexible. don't you want that over established politicians? established politicians, who we've had enough of for the
last 50 years? >> well, i don't think established politicians is exactly the reason why we're in the economic mess we're in right now. >> yeah. -- i mean no offense. but left wing policies like, you know, dodd-frank and obamacare and all of these drags on the economy. i don't think you can associate larry summers with that. remember it was deregulation during the clinton years. like it or dislike it, the left hayes it. i would say it did help the economy. we had capital gains cuts during the clinton years, which larry summers was behind. again, like it or dislike it, we had a good market, a good economy. >> and that's what it comes down to. it comes down to the -- >> i'm nondenominational -- ashley: let me bring in allen. allen, let's get your thoughts on this conversation. well, trump first being bad for the markets because of the unpredictability and -- >> establishment kind of guy for treasury secretary clinton. let's do trump first. >> you're always one step away
from some dramatic move in the marketplace. misinterpreting or interpreting whatever he says. so -- the good news for us is the markets have not priced in the reality of him having a very large chance of being president. we're still relatively stable market condition right now. if we start to see a selloff, that may be an indication that people are taking him more seriously as far as the probability of him actually being president. but who is he going to pick? and who's going to make the decision? you don't run the country as a ceo. you don't get to make all the decisions like a ceo does. it's totally did i tell of. you have to allocate and put people in a position. >> you have to tell donald. >> that memo didn't reach donald's desk. ashley: he's going to have to learn quickly. let me bring in warren. let me get your thoughts on this situation. what do you think of trump and whether he's too unpredictable. >> you know, listen. i happen to agree with some of the things that charlie was saying. but i also agree with the other -- i think trump is
unpredictable. in terms of, like, social programs and running the government, i think that's sort of fine. i think people want change in that wear. when it comes to finance, though, i think you don't really want that wild card. you don't want unpredictability. now, i can't comment on the names that are dropped there because i don't know enough about them to do that. >> he's one thing i like to make. donald made some interesting comments about treasury debt. now, he walked them back. but what he initially said, and let's go by what he initially said. ly he said he would go to the chinese, and he would renegotiate -- he didn't say default. renegotiate. i'm paraphrasing a little bit. i would renegotiate the terms of what we owe the chinese. now, he -- he went back and said no. no. what i really meant is refinance debt, which, by the way, is not what he says. refinancing debt is done every day. >> right. >> my point is this. if he ever said that as president, the market would go down 2,000 points because that
is one step before default when you renegotiate the terms of the debt, which are bond holders. and especially the treasury debt. ashley: hang on. sarge, let me get back to you. i want to get more into market talk now. we talked about are people getting out of the big momentum stocks, the i don't know, the apples, or the techs of last year. cashing in and going into under valued stocks? are we seeing a bit of that action as well? >> well, yeah, just speaking for myself. i'm a trader. that's what i'm doing precisely. i'm getting into safer names, getting into some of the beaten down areas. i got into oil a few weeks ago, i got into tech. i'm not in it yet, but i'm thinking about getting into the retailers now that they've been beaten up. >> what about the apple? >> i've never touched apple in my entire life, and it doesn't give me encouragement that warren buffet is going into it. he doesn't done well in the last five years. ashley: well, apple dropped
below 90 bucks, went down to 89.47, this is a company sitting on $2.5 billion worth of cash and one new hit product away from taking off again. >> yeah. sure. i mean -- but apple is a different animal. it's so widely held among the public. but when i talk to my fellow traders, when i talk to the guys, when it was up three, four dollars yesterday when buffet made the statement, they sold into that. they took a advantage of $3 premium of where it had been trading. >> yeah, and apple is -- here's the thing. we have to remember. and i just read the apple book. and steve jobs said it. he said -- tim cook is not product. and i think if you buy apple, you have to weigh that. do they have -- i mean that's what made jobs brilliant. every product was good. he knew -- he had that sense. you don't get the same sense that tim cook is as smart as
he is -- ashley: a different dynamic. >> yeah. if you think about it, there's a bunch of tech names. where do you go for innovation? you've got to think google is more of an innovative company tit. they squeeze a dollar out of everything they do. it's really an amazing -- >> charlie, take a look at the revenues and the profit that apple makes. i mean it's still huge, huge numbers even though the sentiment has backed off. but you can total all the top five guys and it still doesn't compare to what apple does on a quarter. ashley: allen, do you like apple? it dropped below 90, moving up now, president bucks, do you still like it at this price? >> i think from a risk reward standpoint, i think there's more upside. think about all the big brands that have gotten beaten up that bounced back. you think mcdonald's, you think coca-cola, the same thing has happened now with apple that everybody fallen out of love with it. but if you come down to the
numbers, it has a pe in single digits. maybe nine, maybe ten. what's the long-term prognosi prognosis? i'm confident that they will shift and approach that 100-dollar level some time soon. ashley: elliott, go ahead. >> i actually agree with that. i think is a buy. equities aren't my special thing but i am a trader too, and i looked at the thing that has lost so much value and arguably doesn't deserve it. i agree. i think that apple is a guy buy. i think there are other bargain stocks to look at. like, twitter is not going away. i see that trading 14 bucks. >> what are they trading at right now? >> i'm not saying it's not going to -- >> 14.30. >> 14.30. >> it's going to go higher eventually. >> someone has to buy it at some point. >> it has value. >> it does. >> people use it. and get in trouble on it. >> just so you know. >> i guess the traders, this is kind of an interesting question.
i mean there's -- >> yeah. >> there's some talk about a fed rate hike today, i think it was the san francisco fed. ashley: two of them. in atlanta and -- >> when i was studying economics when the fed raised rates, the economy is getting better. so people would buy. you would think stocks would go up. the minute someone sneezes about the -- a rate hike, stocks go down 200 points. it seems to me that the market -- ashley: overreaction? >> or people think that this economy is very weak still and a rate hike -- ashley: a quarter percent rate hike would make borrowing more expensive for companies in theory. >> right. ashley: who then hold back on spending. >> but the theory is if you play this out in economics 1 i101 it becomes a little bit more expensive because the economy is overheating. but who the market is saying is that that is not the case. it's interesting. when they raise rates in december; right? ashley: yeah. >> we had a couple -- not a
couple. we had, like, some lousy weeks; right? ashley: the beginning of the year? >> yeah. it was horrendous. so i'm wondering if they go through now. ashley: we had a suggestion they're not going to do anything before june 23rd. take june off the table. are you okay with that? >> i think if you're janet yellen and you want to see hillary president, you don't raise rates. ashley: you agree with that? >> i agree with that. ashley: we're seven minutes away from the closing bell, down still 200. >> yeah. and i was just checking the levels. looks like one point above the positive territory for s&p 500 in 2016. the next level i'm watching on the nasdaq is 47.11, one of our faithful viewers e-mailed me and said this is correction level on the nasdaq. so 47.11. and, you know, it's really just -- we're coming off the session lows, well off the session lows. now down 199 points. you
know, we had that cpi report this morning. so it's interesting i was looking at some of the food and beverage stocks, huge weight on the s&p 500. retailers, multiyear lows, got some new lows. some of the retailers especially department stores that recently reported earnings. again, now there's the dow off more than 200 points. had all kinds of fed -- so that supports the case for a rate hike. and getting back to that cpi. it was the fastest monthly increase in more than three years. so all of these things are coming together so that the fed could raise rates. and if you look at the fed funds futures, it's a financial instrument. it's a way of playing the markets once again. the percentage expectation that we will get a june rate hike increase to about 14 to 15% from single digit percentages just yesterday. important to point out. volume on the light side, 12% on the average one-month volume. but i think it was steve that pointed out that volume was actually lower yesterday. so you can't make a conviction call on that of whether people are more bearish or bullish.
because if you look at the trend of the market, the s&p and the dow have each been down four of the last five days. so once again checking the s&p 500, ashley, got 20.45, looks like 20.44 where we close and the support on the s&p. back to you. ashley: thank you. great job, lori, the nasdaq the biggest drop in five weeks, oh, by the way. so certainly a sell off. let's bring in executive editor jeff reeves. jeff, we join you on a day where the market is selling off. what would you tell your clients in an environment like this? >> well, i think this is pretty much what to see for the rest of the year. maybe not -- ashley: the rest of the year? >> i think we're going to definitely see some volatility. i don't expect the market to be much higher or lower by the end, but i think we're going to see a lot of fireworks. and it's mostly because there's so much uncertainty, the fed possibility of a rate increase, there's china, we just went through an earnings season, which frankly wasn't that great for a lot of companies. so i think it's very difficult for the market to find its
footing right now. so we're going to see swings high or swings low up 200 points, and we're going to finish around 20.75 for the s&p for the end of the year. but like i said i think there's going to be a lot of fireworks along the way. ashley: so what do you like in this market equity-wise? >> well, i think you're if you're a short-term trader, if you want to catch falling knives, but what i'm advising is go for the low beta investments, if the market is going to be flat, why not get income along the way? or the stock i like right now is a real estate investment trust, vtr i believe. ashley: yeah. >> owns senior housing facilities, has medical real estate. so it pays a juicy dividend of 4%, it's not going to burn the house down but with a demographic shift, health care is a pretty safe bet. so i would hide out in stocks like that right now. there are growth opportunities if you know where to look. but for a typical investor, i
think going for a foundational play that's going to stick in your portfolio for years, ventas. ashley: 52% of americans own stocks. that's the lowest level in 19 years. >> i started -- i remember when i first got to the wall street journal back in 1995, the same week of the netscape ipo, which touched off the big boom in stocks and the marketization of investing. people flocked, average people flocked to stocks, and you have just the opposite right now with filing the financial crisis. but, you know, that sort of behavior cost average people a lot of money. ashley: yeah. >> if you think about it, if you started buying when it -- when everybody thought the end was year in march 2019, you did pretty dam good. wherever it is now and however much it's off. so, listen, i'm not a fan of bernie sanders. i think hillary clinton is much better than him. shows points --
ashley: from a market point of view? >> yeah. i think borrowing a real lunatic as president. and if you see donald trump, you know, moderate some of his stance i mean, listen. long-term? this is the best bet in town; right? ashley: right. let me bring back sarge. jeff just said that you're going to see this through the rest of the day. these big swings, down 200 point days. do you agree? >> i certainly think you're going to see this maybe for the rest of the year. but certainly through the june fed meeting. we just told the fed fund rate futures are trading up 14% for june. but more importantly trading up 14% for september. i think september is too late in relation to the election. but the guys trading the futures don't think that. so there will be a lot of uncertainty but at least for the next five or six weeks. we'll see how the 2040 holds in the s&p.
we're trading between 2040 and 2050. now we're at low end of the range. if you look at vix we've been trading sideways two full months between 17 and 13. we're right in the middle. can't make a decision. can't make a breakout. market is not able to stay above 2100 in the s&p. charlie was talking about the contrary opinion that usually the public is wrong. so people are out of the stock market. that is usually reality. people should be buying when they sell and people should be selling when they buy. just psychological aspect of the market so important and so difficult for people to manage and to master because the fears get overwhelming. ashley: let me bring in elliot quickly on the oil side. i find it hard to believe this massive glut, we're swimming in it, 80-year high of oil reserves suddenly disappeared on us.
>> clearly hasn't. ashley: it hasn't. when do we see oil prices come back down? >> you have to understand people are looking toward the future. people see that, production and is way off. well the rig count is down. people are sort of counting on that to drive the glut away and drive price up. nobody wants to be caught. i am not a believer of that. i agree with what the other two guys said. average guy is sitting out the stock market that probably makes it a buy. i can't agree with that more. as for oil, people are a i grad of it. goldman saying buy it. on the lows goldman was saying sell it. that didn't work out. you're encouraging me to stay with my bearish feeling of crude. ashley: we'll let you. oil is at 48. there's the price of oil. rather the dow, down 182. thank you to all the our guests who rung -- hung inith us
during the last hour. [closing bell rings] dow still up 180 points. dave and melissa taking it from here. melissa: wild day for stocks tumbling triple digits, reversing all of yesterday's gains. i'm melissa francis. neil: i'm david asman. this is "after the bell." here what else we have. bernie sanders looking to take both states from hillary clinton to keep his winning strike alive while frustration and anger grows over sanders supporters what they call rigged system. there are warnings, frustrations will turn violent all the way to the national convention in july. it can't get more frustrating than this. chicago's o'hare airport, now telling flyers to arrive three hours before a domestic flight! can you imagine?