rapidly and schools can't keep. >> politicians often fight the future. john: you say it's exciting, some people say it's creepy. >> i don't disagree in any way. john: exciting tore creepy, the tech revolution is next. i assume many of you, maybe most you own one of these smart phones. because of these political campaigns today are different. we are volunteers with the ted cruz campaign. i was wondering if we could ask you a couple questions. john: door knock is old, but the way steve and debbie do it is new. they are at this door was their phones told them the people who live here might vote for ted cruz. >> we set out the objective to run the most data-driven
analytic campaign in the history of politics. >> obama did that both timese ran. >> he had a secret weapon, a sophisticated data mining operation. >> the campaign manager for the obama campaign said the biggest institutional advantage they had over the romney campaign was its use of data. many republican insiders tends to be exclusive and close mined when it came to using new they moddologies. however, after 2012 that changed. the obama am pain tests everything. they conducted 500 different experiments on their website. when they had a picture of president obama with an inspirational quote they raised significantly more money than when they had the same page but just a picture of obama.
john: the obama's campaign real hero, harper reid, the mastermind behind barack obama's win. you got credit for obama's victory. >> i was just a cog. >> on election day the campaign will activate a sophisticated system for tracking their get out the vote efforts. john: romney had four people working in data analytics. obama had 50. and he had a data program with a code name. >> we named it far wal -- we nat narwhal because we wanted a fun name. once it leaked, nobody knew what to do. suddenly there was a mythical
narwhal. john: romney's team had orca. on election day it crashed. >> you have 30,000 volunteers wandering around like zombies with no direction. >> we have caught up says the cruz campaign. >> i bought a copy of "the audacity to win" and gave it to our senior team. i said we'll nakedly and shamelessly emulate. >> he made it clear this was an area that used data and analytics that he would not fall behind in. >> why do you think the democrats were ahead of the republicans? >> the silicon valley environment tend to be a little
more active. they take their technologies and help the democrats use them. reporter: each volunteer's phone tells him where to go. >> you are in here for a reason. you caucused before as a republican. >> i click on each individual house. the names of the people living there, their ages. we hit their names and it gives us a script to go by question-wise. >> can ted cruz depend on your support in february? >> i haven't made up my mind yet. john: depending on the voter's answer the phone tells him what to say next. >> is there a candidate you are considering? >> haven't so. >> in the past if i had my piece of paper i might be able to write down, but this is instantaneous. the volunteer's phone said don't
knock on this door and the man was curious why. the data determined that knock would go have been a waste of volunteer's time and the campaign's money. they know a lot about each voter. if they vub describe to this magazine or watch this tv show then you know they are more likely to vote for ted? >> that's two factors of 50,000 to 70,000. >> they even know what you eat. democratic cars, volvos. >> how do you know this? >> this is information on the open market. >> there are companies that amass a lot of consumer data. the types of data they collect are based on transactions you and i make. whether we opened a store loyalty card or subscribe to a magazine. all of this is logged. when you get a knock on your
door, the mess and you receive is likely informed by this data analytics. >> do voters mind being targeted because a campaign has specific data on them? the corporate world has done this for years. >> one day an angry father showed up at a target store and asked to speak to the manager. the manager came out and the father said you have been sending my high school aged daughter ads and coupons for baby cribs and diapers. she is in high school. you are encouraging her to get pregnant. the manager called the father back to apologize and the father said i owe you an apology. i just spoke with my teenaged daughter, it turns out she is pregnant. john: target knew before dad did. >> target identified 25 didn't products that when people buy
them in commission with each other means they are likely pregnant. john: now the cruz campaign says it knows even more. >> the use of personality modeling. >> it tells chris and his team -- >> who is going to vote, and what issues they care about. john: it tells him what voters care about. >> they respond to didn't colors and pictures. >> the campaign uses blue or true central tones, red or orange if they think you are an extrovert. if they are temperamental we use alarm, authority. >> the foot soldier goes to the store and they know what buttons to push. >> we know where they are on moral issues, immigration, gun rights. >> not just where they are, but why. >> maybe one person supports the second amendment because when
they were a child they went duck hunting with their grand father. for them it brings back nostalgia, a sense of family. if that's the case, you can craft a mess and that hits to why they care about it. if you are a single mom, if you are carrying a revolver in your purse because you don't want to get mugged, a duck-hunting ad won't do a thing to connect with you. so just on the second amendment we have a dozen different messages. we have a cruz app that thousands of people downloaded on to their phones. john: the obama campaign did that, too. >> by signing up for the app they were able to identify the friend of their supporters. they said what you click on this button to share with friends. >> having friend talk to friend is the most persuasive.
>> it's for them to hear why a person who is important to them, a friend or family member from a friend. >> we have grassroots activists competing to spread the word. we would like you to reap out to 10 of your friend. and if you do get get 10 points. >> you get badges. you get to compete against your friend to see who can become the best organizer. >> this motivates people? >> it does. >> some are up to leader and patriot. >> my producer tricked me into putting it on my phone. so now my friend will have their privacy invaded by you? >> absolutely not. >> how, in 2012 obama supporters did have their privacy invaded. >> you don't know much about the campaign and how much it knew about you.
>> obama's campaign is watching you. >> i remember a lot of people who wanted to volunteer for the campaign innovation. it doesn't work without it being accessible. >> but people were uncomfortable as a result. facebook decided to shut count feature. the continues is this time they are telling you that they are going through your friend list and they ask for your permission and tell you everything they collect. >> shouldn't we be nervous our candidates are spying on us? >> some people feel it's manipulative. >> this is sleazy. it lets you pander to certain people and give them what they want.m talking to you about common core and all you care about is foreign policy and defeating isis. i have done a disservice to you as a voter because you don't know where ted cruz stands.
>> cruz by using data to target potential supporters and convincing those people to go to caucuses won a surprising victory in iowa. >> that's the power of technology. it amplifies the voice of each of us. a slick hollywood tv ad has its limits. using technology to communicate and empower the grass roots. that's the key to winning in politics in the 21st century. >> winning in politics. i see where that's important to him. but let's remember in politics there is just one winner. the good news is that in the rest of life, the best of life, we have choices. everyone can win. and that's what the rest of this show is about. coming up, the robot car. this is exciting. and scary. but next, how youtube lets people make money doing what they love.
impressive linda. it seems age isn't slowing you down. but your immune system weakens as you get older increasing the risk for me, the shingles virus. i've been lurking inside you since you had chickenpox. i could surface anytime as a painful, blistering rash. one in three people get me in their lifetime, linda. will it be you? and that's why linda got me zostavax, a single shot vaccine.
i'm working to boost linda's immune system to help protect her against you, shingles. zostavax is a vaccine used to prevent shingles in adults fifty years of age and older. zostavax does not protect everyone and cannot be used to treat shingles or the nerve pain that may follow it. you should not get zostavax if you are allergic to gelatin or neomycin, have a weakened immune system or take high doses of steroids are pregnant or plan to become pregnant. the most common side effects include redness, pain, itching, swelling, hard lump warmth or bruising at the injection site and headache. it's important to talk to your doctor about what situations you may need to avoid since zostavax contains a weakened chickenpox virus. remember one in three people get shingles in their lifetime, will it be you? talk you to your doctor or pharmacist about me, single shot zostavax. you've got a shot against shingles.
today 5 million people subscribe to her youtube channels. and her video have been seen over a billion times. >> you have more twitter followers than i do. >> how come you are the most popular bake show? >> i have no clue. she did not plan to bake for a living. she started working odd jobs in the movie business. >> i worked as a p.a., a hand double, a dancer. john: she worked on the show "glee." tight wasn't fulfilling for me, i wanted to do more. some so thee posted baking videos that she shot at her parents' home. >> it was just a creative outlet for me. john: she told her agent by the and he wasn't happy.
>> he said if you don't stop making youtube video we'll drop you. >> i was getting more and more comments and the community kept growing. >> her youtube fans started asking for autographs. >> i went to target and i got recognized by a gal at the store. i was trying to tell my agent that there is value here. this is amazing, this is real. john: another performer who caught on on youtube. >> i was doing standup, but on the internet in a couple minutes people say, that's great. her silly youtube channel makes her $50,000 a year. this swedish guy makes $12 million. just by talking while playing video games.
>> drink the could pea? he leads forbes list of highest earning youtube stars. rosanna is second with $2.5 million. john: youtube keeps 40% of the money? >> yes, and that's fine. >> youtube is the greatee callizer. if you have an idea and you are talented or not talented, you can put something up on youtube. john: justin bieber got his start posting this video when he was 12. >> every now and then youtube creates a star. john: it used to be there were gatekeeper. some fat guy with a cigar.
>> they dominated the record business for many many years answer they were the gate keepers. >> it cost tens of thousands of dollars. >> it costs money to market your album and put your song on the radio. today you can get your album to millions of people around the world with the click of a button. john: a conference that's show cases new technology and artists. >> look at lindsey sterling. imagine her showing up at one of the big music studios in new york saying can i get a record deal, i'go pat the violence. all of a sudden she becomes a youtube sensation. fills stadiums now. you can't argue with that. that's when the crowd decides. >> i think people are very smart. i think they are intuitive. and they pick up on when you love what you are doing, they can see it. >> this direct connection to the
audience threatened the record industry. >> the record industry's traditional model has been selling pieces of plastic that contain all the music. hundreds of record were being sold up to the back street boys and britney spears era. but suddenly the internet kicks in. snapster and mp3s allowed people to share all the music in the world for free. >> the music industry seud. >> they started by doing napster, and lime wire. >> they sued their own customers sometimes. >> they sued a 13-year-old girl it turned out to be pretty bad publicity. >> now the record labels license their music to streaming
services like am, spotify and -- like apple, pandora and spotify. how does a musician make money? >> by going on tour. john: doesn't that mean fewer people can make a living this way? not everyone can go on tour. >> it's a diminished business than what it was 10 years ago. but there are more opportunities for bands to get big. we have all the music we want for free on our mobile devices. it's a golden age of music for consumers. >> but it's not a golden age for education. we'll show you how these techies plan to fix that without government.
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cheaper, is education. and the tech revolution has planned for that, too. these young people gathered to hold a hack-athon called hack.edu it's where computer nerds try to create something better. john: it sounds like a criminal enterprise. >> what we mean is build. hack means build something quickly, don't worry about polish or making it look pretty. john: alex emailed 50 friends frustrated by the education system. >> alex had a grand vision of we would have a huge event with over 1,000 people. john: you got this. >> we did. >> we had people fly in from india and singapore, from all
over the world because they were so frustrated and fed up. to say finally a chance for me to build and do something about the issues i see. john: we see is is something the left and right complain about. >> our educational system has failed our children. john: for years politicians promised to fix education. >> we'll cut out unnecessary forms, regional straitions. >> we'll restore access to american education. john: another president promised ... >> no child will be left behind. >> there is a lot to be pissed off about. john: at hack-athons young people compete for days to create something. >> 3 straight hours was our ha-athon.
they are eating judge food, you are up all night. having this crazy competition pushes innovation and pushes the envelope. >> why can they create stuff in this big room with a bunch of hackers together that they can't do in their basement. >> all the energy is there. john: some built iphone apps. this group worked on a robot. >> kid learn to program and use real life robotics and hardware. john: the hacking education winner was this ad which is hike uber for tutors. it lets you compare to you towards and think about it like sports for nerds. john: nerds who don't just talk about new ways to educate.
>> they built and implemented it. john: many people wanted to improve college education. but they learned the university resists new ideas. >> i would go and pitch them to my professors and they would say those are good ideas, but good luck with the red tape. >> technologies are developing so rapidly, schools can't keep up. john: it's the people my age who are in charge are holding you people back. >> it's the mentality, this is how we have always don't so this is how we are going to continue to do it. they don't have a startup mentality. john >> higher education is powerful because it owns the power of credential. john: but most graduates don't get jobs that require a degree. john: david morris got top grade at a top college, then got a
masters degree. after paying $100,000 to signal others, i have a college degree. >> why this expensive plumage mechanism. zach started a company that find students work and businesses. >> these employers are track cally handing out good jobs and they can't find good talented young people with college degrees to fill them. he's making more than $100,000 a year. >> i'm creating real value for this company. even if they don't, the student don't drown in student loan. >> it's net tuition zero for our student. one company offers a virtual reality alternative learning science. you learn by playing games. and every day on the web there
is another new alternative. do people still need a college degree? >> if you want to be a doctor, lawyer or professor, something highly credentialed, you will need one. but if you want to build your own career you don't need one. john: that's a good thing. it gives us more choices. next, the best way to predict who will be the next president. will it be him? her? him? later in the show. the robot car. look, mom, no hands. i have asthma...
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they were predicted but they didn't win. maybe instead of polls we should pay more attention to pendant. >> we will win by a lance slide. john: groups, they they get it wrong all the time too. turns out pendants are not terribly accurate. they study and alternative, the betting on. the something about putting money on the line that cuts through, in a bar or at a party, people often make bold statements. >> 70 challenges you and say you want to bet on that. as soon as somebody says do i really believe that? john: if you put your money where your mouth is, you are more careful and when lots of people put their money on the line called prediction market, this one in the united states
and this in europe, the resulting odds are more accurate than anything else. unfortunately, they post these odds in confusing gambling formula spread my producer and i created the site, election betting betting odds.com that states the odds more clearly. who's winning? >> we are going to win. john: despite his confidence and lead in all national polls for the republican nomination, marco rubio is well ahead in the betting. trump is second, ted cruz third period for the democratic nomination, hillary is the overwhelming favored and she is also favored to become president. if you think these are wrong, you can make money by being right. this was the debate watching party hosted by political prediction site. people bet on candidates during the debate. it's like a stock market for elections and like stocks, chances change constantly. >> we get traders who are
trading back and forth about who's making the most money. >> i put in rubio and i was making my best prediction out here. >> this is like fantasy baseball. john: you can play if you think trump is more likely to be calm president. make a bet and if you went you could win $10 for every dollar you bet. it turns out prediction markets like this are much more accurate than polls. >> consistently, test after test, the markets predictive elections better than polls. john: the better's new better. the odds had him at just 9%. now he is below 1%. when these candidates surged to first place in polls, the correction market said no, romney will win. it also correctly predicted results in most every state. in 2012, every state but one.
>> the market is consistently as accurate or more accurate than the polls. john: favor predicted when saddam hussein would be captured, right before his hideout was found, the odds on that thing tripled in price. >> when he was found hiding at the bottom of the whole. john: they predicted american idol winners and oscar winners. part of what makes them work is the wisdom think route. some people betting may be fooled, making bad bets, but the crowd of people probably wouldn't. you see that on the tv show, who wants to be a millionaire. >> can i use the audience? john: contestants cannot asked the audience or an expert. the expert does pretty well. they get the answer right 65% of the of the time, but the audience gets it right 91% of the time.
political prediction markets have a long history. 100,000 years ago they were popular. they're not really legal for the most part but there reported on. newspapers reported because that's what they had to report on. they were booking sites. there was more money trading back and forth in the election market then in the stock markets in the 1900s. this was a big deal. john: the predictions were pretty accurate? >> of course. they correctly predicted dr and mckinley. john: sadly, our government often bands as illegal gambling. stock markets were banned, commodities were banned, insurance was banned so we have a long history of banning things as gambling. john: the world no longer benefits from its prediction. recently, the government granted a few exceptions to its ban for sites like predictive.
>> how come they got a yes and the rest of the guys got a no. john: the bureaucrats keep changing her mind 12 years ago they asked robin hanson to create a market that would predicted world event. >> the department of defense heard that these markets were interesting and doing powerful things and they said show us. we are going to. develop predict events in the middle east to people immediately started to bet but we never got that far. john: the idea of people betting on when there might be terrorism horrified politicians. >> i think this is unbelievably stupid. it needs to be stopped immediately. john: it was, the very next day. >> the secretary of defense declared the project at. john: the pentagon is to deprived of predictions that might save lives. >> people are wary of what we bet on death. john: politicians protect us from truth. >> they are very adept at
watching out for things that might worry voters. >> coming up next, the the robot car. this will save lives if government allows it. my hygienist said i should think of my teeth like an apple. could be great on the outside, not so great on the inside. her advice? strengthen both. go pro with crest pro-health advanced. it's uniquely formulated to strengthen teeth inside... ...and is better at strengthening the outside... ...than colgate total. my check-up was great.
look mom, no hands. are you ready for the driverless car? i got to try one. this was exciting and scary. scary because it's not natural to just sit here and let the car drive. this car is the test but us, the closest thing to a totally driverless car that consumers can buy now. i had to leave my state to test it. new york's archaic law for bid taking both hands off the wheel. once we are out of the state, they turned on the autopilot. >> so the car is driving itself? john: it takes time to get comfortable with having the car make decisions. in this tunnel i was especially nervous. it turned out i was right to be scared. what happened there? john: the car drifted left.
when you hold the wheel, you disengaged the autopilot. john: touching the break or wheel takes the car out up autopilot. once how i learned how works, i found not driving is pretty cool. >> this is not natural, but it does work. drives itself and it is safer than me. john: safety is the biggest reason we should welcome these car. 90% of people killed in car crashes are killed because of human error. the computer in this car would prevent many of those death. it can sense that i'm coming up on another car. >> it will slow me down and it already has. john: if i want to change lanes, just signal. >> it will change lanes without me. it just does. then waste bet up to 65 miles per hour hour that was scary, i
didn't didn't think it would turn, but it does. this car is only partly self drivable. it can't go on and off highways. john: people will be seen reading the paper. he stopped me because date laws the driver must always be in control. what if i go to sleep. >> you would be breaking the law. you have to be in control of the vehicle at all times. john: if regulators allow it, technology will let us relax in our cars and that could change our lives. it will save lives and create more relaxing commutes. >> if i'm in stop and go traffic will it go without me? yes it will. there will be fewer accidents because they react quicker and cars will be able to drive closer together and more cars will fit on the same street.
>> computers crash, you're going to trust your life to a machine? >> people know that machines are better than people at a lot of tasks. john: still, that that idea of some machines, trusting it with my life. >> our brains are basically machines, but they're not machines that are optimized for going 65 miles per hour hour. john: the military is making all kinds of robot. they call this the wildcat. these will soon deliver supplies or rescue soldiers. some robots will be used to kill. already, robots have changed lives in some japanese hotels. this dinosaur is a front desk clerk. they have all types. another robot stores your luggage for you. this one takes it to your room, and when you get there, there's no key. the door recognizes your face through facial facial
recognition software. it saves money. this hotel is cheaper than other hotels nearby but it's cheaper because it in place fewer people. when robots do this work, fewer fewer receptionist will get jobs here. military robots will replace soldiers. driverless cars will put truck drivers and taxi drivers out of business. people are going to lose their jobs. they will have nothing to do. >> you're right, some people will lose their jobs but other people will get jobs. john: expert predict employment will decline but they can't imagine the new jobs. >> walmart will undoubtably fire some truck drivers because their trucks drive themselves, but this will cause walmart to lower their prices. john: those savings will bring new opportunity. we remember that 200 years ago most americans worked on farms. 90% used to work on farms, now
less than 2%. you would think those people would be out of work but then they found new jobs and they found things doing jobs that were more productive and that's how our economy grows. john: we forget how hard it was to grow food without tractors the modern machine. farm work was long and dangerous. >> you look back at horses and buggies. we saw cars displacing horses and we don't let that stop us. the blacksmith of old probably had to figure out something else to do. they all found jobs. the economy evolves. it's an evolving ecosystem. john: some don't want it to evolve. these cabdrivers demand the government protect their jobs. john: what would the world look like if the government did protect jobs. this parity video mocks the idea there are many industries where
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i'm talking about nerds. >> i'm a nerd and i am here tonight to stand up for the rights of other nerds. john: it's about time because nerds make our world better. >> we hear that you claim that label with pride. john: this was at a graduation where bill and melinda gates spoke. >> well, so we. john: nerdy nominees is what she calls her baking show. why nerdy? >> i was considered nerdy when i was growing up so i wanted to use it in the name of my business. >> technology is now.
john: new technology changes quickly. do you have a useful app in your phone? every two weeks it changes. >> these young people are previewing what we will use in a year. we look at it and say your music is to you out. technology and innovation will always prevail. it will change our side society, hopefully for the better. john: but not if government stops him. uber offers offers better service but to succeed, it had to overcome tests and government rules. >> it was legally questionable but people did it anyway. life was better, faster, cheaper and cooler with these apps. john: that also shows the danger inherent in our current rules. they grew popular and rich but for the politicians and regulators notice.
by then they had millions of customers and billions of dollars so they could bully the politicians back. >> tell mayor diblasio don't strand new york. john: they told their customers no cars, blame the politician. >> diblasio is backing off his fight with uber. john: it's good that uber one but normal innovators want to get government permission before they build. they may be crushed by today's rules. crushed before they can make our lives better. >> we don't need all of these politicians. john: without too many rules and politicians, the future is going to be full of surprises. >> full of awesome things that almost fall from the sky. we can't even imagine it today. john: new ways to commute, to predict future events, to teach, to discover new music. the tech revolution will make
life better, faster, cheaper, more abundant than ever before. i can't wait. and that's our show. thanks for watching. lou: good evening, everybody. it has been barely three days since voters elected america's 45th president, but president-elect donald trump is on the move. he's working hard at selecting his transition team, selecting who will join him in government, in the white house. in his cabinet. throughout his administration. president-elect this morning tweeted about the decisions he'll be making saying this -- but the president-elect is creating a structure and organization around him that