tv Cavuto Coast to Coast FOX Business November 15, 2017 12:00pm-2:00pm EST
begins debate on their version of the tax bill. that is very, very important because it has to be on the fast track. president trump will address the house republicans tomorrow right before they vote. time's up. neil it is yours. neil: thank you very much, stuart. house is expected to debate this afternoon the tax measure. senate already putting fine-tuning on its own plans. those go plans are far apart as things stand. market well off the lows earlier today. concerns this doesn't go exactly to script. go to adam shapiro on capitol hill with the very latest. hey, adam. reporter: neil, the latest we're hearing from different senators we expect the senate finance committee to actually vote on the measure and send it to the full senate tomorrow. let's get into what some changes mean for americans going forward. first, all of these tax cuts, would essentially expire in 10 years, 2025, according to the
jct the hated amt that is being repealed. but unless a future congress extended that repeal it would expire 2025, along with the new seven tax brackets, slightly adjusted in the revision. new standard deductions, take deduction double, almost for a single filer, 24,000 for joint filers, those would expire if in the extended. child cac credit and pass-through income tax for qualified individuals business owners those would expire without extension. it is important to remember, this does deliver tax reform as the republicans have promised to the middle class. here is what we heard from mark short, earlier this morning when he was speaking with maria bartiromo on how the white house views all of this. >> one is, it very much is middle income tax relief. 80% of the people paying penalty on obamacare taxes are those earning $50,000 or less. it is, as your panel said, regressive tax. it hurts lowest and middle
income families the most. repealing the tax will be beneficial to working families. reporter: repeal of the individual mandate would survive no matter within 10 years, it is not part of the byrd rule qualifications. democrats very upset about this they are attacking the chairman and the senate finance committee markup. here is what claire mccaskill tweeted before the markup actually began. we got this at 10:18 last night. expected to work on it 10:00 a.m. today. this is nuts. what is the damn rush? why can't we have reasonable time to read and study? again, neil, they expect to be voting on this tomorrow. as one wise member of republican leadership told me, the most important thing to remember about the senate? jet fumes. they want to get out of here for the thanks giving holiday. -- thanksgiving holiday. back to you. neil: to get the whole thing wrapped up by december, when they hope to be way ahead of the special election in alabama.
bush 41 chief of staff, new hampshire governor john sununu. governor, do you buy that? that there is a method to this rush, that the senators in particular are concerned about how this roy moore election could to in alabama? maybe making it a moot point, settle this once and for all before that december 12th election? is that doable? >> i think it is doable. i think what they're focusing on is a pretty smart move. this repeal, as long as they communicate it properly, which i don't think they have done for a long time. this repeal affects people, mostly in their 20s, 30s, certainly 40s, were forced to buy health insurance they didn't want and couldn't afford. and in some case they were, their money was used to subsidize health care for others, so they're not going to be uninsured the way democrats and cbo want to say. they will move to self-insurance
which for them is much smarter investment and better bet. the other thing this does, it eliminates the federal subsidy that went to some of them as a pass-through subsidy to the insurance companies. so this is a very important, very significant, and i think very smart move as long as the republicans communicate it right. and don't let people say 10 million more are going to be uninsured. they're not going to be uninsured. they will move to cheaper, more, more efficient smarter self-insurance. neil: part of the individual mandate that everyone had to have insurance, the notion whatever people think of that, it is going to free up a lot of dollars for republicans maybe to play with when it comes to these tax cuts. 300 billion we're told over 10 years. that would presumably allow republicans to go back to making the corporate tax cuts immediate. in other words starting next year. what do you think of that? >> i think it is the smart move all around. it allows that to happen and
under the pay-go rules it requires, less of the program cutbacks that some people were starting to use at arguments against tax reform and a tax cut. i think there is a lot of ways using that 320 plus billion dollars to satisfy the senate rules and get this thing through. neil: the roy moore situation, governor, republicans seem betwixt and between how to deal with it. most seem to be criticizing the behavior. some go so far to say they believe the women making accusations, timing of "the washington post" story notwithstanding, that he should step aside. is it too late for that? he will still be on the ballot one way or the other, right? >> it is a messy situation down there. one of those situations i get turned off watching on tv. i think he ought to get out but who knows what is in the mind of a candidate. neil: now it would be easier said than done if he were
elected and entered the senate to kick him out because these charges date back, some 40 years. so how likely is that anyway? >> well, look, if you force me to give you a solution, my best recommendation is to have the governor extend the date of the election. neil: i'm sorry, say latter part of that again? >> to extend the date of the election. neil: i see. we'll see. we don't know. they're working behind the scenes. governor, it is a different matter, but concerning george h.w. bush, for whom you served very well, chief of staff and other things, there is another woman coming out saying that the former president inappropriately touched her. it comes at a time when a number of spokesmen for the 41st president argued certainly not deliberate, it was certainly not intentional. regrets it being seen reported way it has been seen and, i'm paraphrasing. what do you think all of this. >> neil, i will let 41 staff
deal with the comments on this ink. i don't know the women. i have no idea what did or didn't happen and i'm not -- neil: does that behavior sound like the george h.w. bush you knew, no? >> no. the george h.w. bush i knew was a fantastic gentlemen. >> so the reason why i even mention it, there seems to be some latitude given, maybe properly so, maybe not, to the former president. not so this guy who wants to be the next senator from alabama. what do you think? >> look, i leave it to the staff of 41 to do the comments. neil: all right. governor, thank you very much. good seeing you. meanwhile, there is an effort here with this tax measure as the governor pointed out to kill a key future of the health care law. maybe so doing killing the health care law itself, getting money and votes necessary to secure the tax cuts over the next decade. with oust south dakota republican senator mike rounds.
senator rounds, good to have you. how broad based is the support for the measure in the senate right now? lisa murkowski, surprising, from alaska was okay with it. what do you think? >> it is pretty broad based. i think we have got the support right now, moving in the right direction. we need 50 plus the vice president. would be better if we had 51 or 52. i think we're very close to the numbers right now. i think moving forward as quickly as we are suggests that leadership is fairly comfortable with the whip count at this time. neil: when you say leadership is certainly confident, that this measure with that provision on the individual mandate, that that it would pass? >> i think so. and, we've done a lot of discussing on this. this is not something that was just -- talked about this for a week. and we really wanted to have it scored. we wanted it.
we really wanted to individual scored. we wanted to find out what impact would be. most recently, as yesterday, the numbers for the basic repeal would be about $338 billion over a 10-year period of time. there are qualifications that would reduce the number. that makes this package workable and desirable. if you take the 338. that is a lot of dollars available that allow you to eliminate some of the other. that is a possibility, i don't think that would be the priority. neil: interesting. >> in part because businesses in most cases made their plans how they would spend resources that they have got in the next year, 2018 but what this also allows under our plan they can do
immediate expensing of a lot of the purchases even if it is at a higher tax rate and some of the businesses say, as a second alternative that's okay. meantime it would allow to us focus what we would identify as allowing the american public to see is a growing, healthy economy. that is, they will see a fairer tax rate for them. they will see reductions in terms of impact on middle and upper income salaries. and, they will have that sense of confidence that this really is working. they will see that right away. part of what we're talking about here, gaining confidence of the american people we're actually doing what we said we would do. more will be able to file a short form, 1040-a, style approach. more of them will actually see more money in their pockets from a tax rate reduction. and that goes across the lower income, middle income, and into upper income brackets. that is what this allows us to do.
as i say, it, the business folks, they make their plans a little bit farther out. neil: but i still think they would prefer sooner rather than later. >> no question about that. neil: but i hear you. >> there are tradeoffs. neil: senator, i do want to talk about roy moore and his situation in alabama. he has no intention of stepping down as he continues to run for the senate seat, despite what many of your colleagues say, for all i know, what you're saying. if he is elected though, do you think the senate should kick him out? >> what we've said, and what i believe is first of all, the people in alabama have to make a decision who they want to represent them. they're stuck between a rock and hard place right now with the new allegations and preponderance of evidence which is coming out and i happen to believe these women who are coming forward right now. they have no other reason to come forward. clearly they have relationships or they had inappropriate
relationships they're sharing. that is uncomfortable for them. my recommendation personally, he should step aside for the good of the country. second of although, you do have some complications as your previous speaker talked about, perhaps the best approach would be if there was a way to, as originally, this was supposed to go until 2018. the governor stepped in and created a special election. i don't know whether she could at this point allow for a new date for an election or not. i can't say that but i think we have to focus once again. this is choice for people of alabama to make. neil: if they choose on december 12th, senator, go ahead and have the election and elect him, he is down four points in the latest polls, that could change and newly-elected senator, is there anything the senate can do to address alleged misdeeds that to back four decades? they would not be current crimes or anything of that sort. so it would be difficult to
remove him, wouldn't isn't. >> there is two parts. there is nothing that would stop him from taking the oath of office. however, membership and discipline of the membership is clearly by constitutional direction left up to the body itself. and the senate does not have any statute of limitations that prohibit them looking at items they have looked at in the past. the leader is very clear he believes the ethics committee would look at issues, and they would have the opportunity if they desired to bring forth charges that could very well eliminate him from being allowed to serve in the united states senate if he was sworn in. neil: all right. senator, we'll watch closely. good seeing you. >> thank you. neil: idea to the senator's point, that has been floated around, what about just trying to replace roy moore with someone who would maybe get strong write-in support, that is the former senator from alabama, the man who is attorney general
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neil: a lot of republicans, he will step down as head of consumer financial protection bureau, richard cordray. there was speculation he might want to run for above of ohio, maybe some other seats. he is stepping down. he has been a lightning rod for criticism from the big financial twice, saying he disproportionately was working in consumers interests, and painting that industry as the villain. anyway, we'll keep eye on that and who the president replaces him with. mitch mcconnell is floating idea of jeff sessions, come back in as write-in alternative to judge roy moore for that republican senate seat open in alabama. to "the hill" editor-in-chief, bob cusack, on how that would work out. you know, bob, i heard this, i know that yesterday the attorney general said not interested. but apparently they're not taking no for an answer.
where do you see this going? >> i'm not sure. obviously, president trump hasn't been satisfied with jeff sessions. he is publicly and privately criticized him but you know, mcconnell is in a tough spot here because the only republican i think who could beat moore, no slam-dunk, is jeff sessions in alabama. you could help divide the republican vote and elect doug jones and mcconnell would be blamed for that. there is no easy solution for mcconnell. no easy choice. either a democrat is elected. moore is elected. try to expel him and really upset the right-wing. that is not good either. mcconnell is up for re-election in 2020. he is likely to be primaried. neil: i'm wondering if the trouble with roy moore, i don't know how indicative of other primary challengers in other races, a slap at steve bannon
efforts to encourage moore or non-traditional and outside the establishment challengers, what do you think? >> mcconnell is trying to beat back a lot of these tea party challengers, but has been successful but was not successful when moore beat strange. so the super-pac affiliated with mcconnell spent millions to try to defeat him. moore has been very critical of mcconnell, and responded to mcconnell saying, you should step aside, you should step aside, senator. neil: yes. >> this will be something that it would be very disruptive. i do think, neil, if he is elected, number one hard for them not to seat him. they will have to do ethics investigation. that could take months. then have grounds to expel him. that could end up in the supreme court. neil: you're talking about charges that go back four decades. not like current sins or crimes or misdemeanors. leaving that aside, do you think that it could plain this election under december 12th, this pell-mell rush going on in the
house and senate concurrently to move fast on tax cuts to, make this december 12th election a moot point? >> yeah. i think, i think this is actually helping republicans because, you know, the probably going to lose susan collins and may lose john mccain but should get everybody else. then you can't have moore coming in. neil: you think susan collins and john mccain are no votes? >> if i had to bet, yeah, there will be one or two defects. if moore is elected he is complete wild card. listen the house will pass tax reform tomorrow. there will be defects but -- neil: can't have more than two losses here. by that i think you're baking into the take not a single democratic vote for this. >> i don't expect one democrat to vote yes. that could be used against them on the campaign trail next year, especially in trump states. i think democrats are mobilizing against this. republicans on health care they have to unite around not get this thing passed.
neil: thank you my friend. appreciate it. this asia trip development with president of the united states and his counterpart in china. there is talk that china will send a representative to north korea to try to talk this country off the cliff here. and world off the cliff. how will that go? hi, i'm the internet! you know what's difficult? armless bowling. ahhhhhhhh! you know what's easy? building your website with godaddy. get your domain today and get a free trial of gocentral. build a better website in under an hour.
neil: all right. well north korea state media saying that donald trump deserves death. i quote here, of the worst crime for which trump can never be pardoned that he dare to malignantly hurt the dignity of the supreme leadership. he is a hideous criminal sentenced to death bit korean people. former u.s. ambassador to the united nations john bolton. well this chinese representative will be going to north korea i guess, friday, ambassador. couldn't have pick ad better time to do so. what do you make of this and,
the environment, this is sort of like the back and forth? >> i wouldn't overstate this, this same official and i'm sure others have been out to brief other countries, in asia and southeast asia on the outcome of 19 economist party congress. president trump's recent visit. may come with media speculation in china, after the announcement of the trip have said it would be to convey they want north korea to go back with the negotiating table with the united states. that should be a complete nonstarter. if you don't get anywhere, if you talk to somebody for 25 years and lied to you consistently you have to have some reason to think that going back in year 26 is going to produce a different result. i don't see it. you know, obviously we don't
know exactly what message is being conveyed, i think it will not amount to a row of beans. neil: i'm always a money nerd. everything has a money root, either a money cause or money cure. we have looked at chinese through the bank of china and to freeze all activity, financial activity, between their two countries, do you think that they had delivered on that? that they promised they would do that, and that they are in fact doing that? because that would go a long way to telegraphing whatever concessions the north koreans want to make, because that would hurt? >> it is possible the bank of china, the central banking system has been closed to the north koreans. maybe there is a back channel they're using. it may be russia moved in. iran moved in. i hope the president succeeded in xi xinping that we're
serious. the china's record for the same 25 year period is nothing to write home about. they're very good at doing what they say they're going to do, as long as they think we're watching. when our short attention span diverts us to something else, they go back to business as usual. neil: part of business as usual to avoid confrontation. i understand that. you reminded me of that, but the fact of the matter is, hope that the north koreans commit to something, and then honor that to republican and democratic administrations they don't, what are our options right now? >> well i think, i hope this was discussed at length in the meetings between president xi and trump where our president should have been saying we have run out of time here. every estimate we have is that north korea is very, very close to having capability they long sought to drop thermonuclear weapons on any target in the continental united states they choose. negotiation sanctions were at the end of the line. we have to bring the regime
down. either, in, what my preference would be to reunite the korean peninsula, under south korea and completely new north korean government. let's do it together, china, let's work on this issue. you say you don't want him to have nuclear weapons, or u.s. is faced with a choice of using military force. nobody likes that option, but the other option we're fast approaching is north korea having deliverable nuclear weapons, the world we have today where they don't have it, not lasting much longer. not an option at this point. neil: what if the chinese are perfectly happy with them having nuclear weapons? >> that is entirely possible. ultimately they don't see it as a threat to them. they're more worried about north korea provoking japan from nuclear weapons. they ought to be worried about use of the force by the united states, if we feel that it is necessary to go in to destroy north korea nuclear weapons program i think government in
north korea will collapse as a result. i think five million or more north koreans will flee across the yalu river and the tumen river into china lead to a state of collapse in north korea. the united states and north korea long prepared for eventuality they have have to go in to secure the chemical and biological facilities and secure nuclear spots we may not have hit and make sure five million north korean refugees don't flee into south korea. china can do it easy way or hard way. they can do it easy way or risk we'll do it the hard way. neil: ambassador, watching you closely. good to see you. >> thank you. neil: it has been pretty cold through much of the northeast. it about a get a lot colder and maybe snow ier as well. thanksgiving you had no idea is coming. details are next. are you on medicare?
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neil: if will be cold, arctic blast kind of cold. adam klotz, what are we looking at. >> currently coldest air stretches across northern portions of the country, as we get closer to closer to the thanksgiving holiday. here is the patterns obviously. things are not looking too bad. we have a cold shot coming at end of this weekend to the northeast, running into the upper midwest. saturday, sunday, as we get closer to the closer to the thanksgiving day holiday, a second blast of cold air up the northern plains, portions of midwest, even farther to the south. that is one where we start to wake up to see really cold temperatures across the heart of the country. talk about the high temperatures for next week. these are day time highs.
couple fairly mild days in the middle of the country. as we get closer and closer arctic blasts push in, and starting to see day time highs in the 30s in some cases. other cases the 20s. the cold air will shift off to the northeast. those are the day time highs. the overnight temperatures that is when you talk about really frigid air moving in. monday, sunday into tuesday, seeing overnight lows, consistently falling down into the 20s or 30s, in some cases, even getting down into the teens. all it takes at that point, a little bit of moisture, you will be talking about perhaps yes even snow as we start to get around the thanks giving holiday there isn't a ton of moisture out there. still plenty of time to change. there is the freezing line. any moisture might turn into snow. this is cold air settling south. there is moisture there. we may get a rain-snow mix as we
get closer and closer. a week away, system running through the atlantic, turning that direction to cause even more snow. there is time to work itself out next several days. neil: adam, appreciate it. meanwhile everyone likes to pile on google, especially european concerns but the missouri stated attorney general launching a antitrust probe against google. he is running for senate in 2018, taking on lisa mccaskill, claire, mccaskill, i apologize. what is this about? google folks say there is no there there. you say what? >> i say i want the folks. here are the facts i want to know, what personal private, confidential information google collects from its users. we know, neil, they collect the information every time you use google search or google flights
or google mail, any of the google platforms. i want to know what personal, private data are they collecting. what are they doing with it? to whom are they selling it? what sort of data compromises have there been in terms of personal privacy. i want to get to the fact what is google is doing. are they taking information from competitors and benefiting from that, misappropriating from competitors. are they manipulating the results of their searches in order to benefit their own businesses and websites and other affiliated sites. neil: separately google said, they looked into this at europe as well. to different degrees. while they have not received your subpoena, told "the wall street journal" in a statement, that we have strong privacy protections in our place for users. we continue to operate on highly competitive and dynamic environment. what do you think of that? >> i read their privacy policies. look, they're very general. they're very generic. here is the question, neil. do consumers actually know what
information google is collecting from them? is google informing them. do consumers have the ability to opt out? just because you use a search engine or gmail, another google platform that you have to fork over reams of confidential information by the way in technological age is some of most private sensitive information we have about ourselves? you shouldn't have to compromise that, in order to use these platforms. the real question is, is google actively appropriately, alerting consumers what they're collecting? do they give consumers the ability to opt out. what are they doing with the information? neil: that seems to be the same gist of a couple of your counterparts, attorney general jim hood who has gone after google couple tiles -- times or allegedly leveraging a lot of its services right now. are you looking into that? >> i am looking into potential
antitrust violations. the concern there is google using its vast market power in the search engine market to benefit its own businesses, to benefit other google platforms or google affiliated sites? the way that would work, is google altering or manipulating the search algorithm to put its own affiliated businesses an sites higher than if was the case based purely on relevance. neil: you will do that with a number of other states? they can do, when they go back after the tobacco industry, where other states join forces in a class-action status against the company? >> so far this is just an investigation. i want to emphasize, neil. what i want are the facts. i want to know exactly what google is doing and why. missouri is the only law enforcement entity i know of this investigation, at this time. we certainly welcome help and interests from others who would like to get the facts.
i think we all agree we need to know what the facts are. we need to know exactly what it is google is doing. if as they say they have nothing to hide or be ashamed of, good, i'm sure they will come forward quickly with all of the facts. neil: i mentioned you were challenging claire mccaskill for that senate seat up for grabs next year. she has said she has concerns about this tax plan right now, particularly linking it to removing the individual mandate. i'm kind of paraphrasing there, general, but how do you feel about that? would you vote for a plan that includes removing the individual mandate as part of an effort to cut taxes? >> oh i think absolutely the right thing to do. the individual mandate is hugely onerous burden on consumers. the tax that goes with it is significant burden. it was wrong to begin with. it should never have been law. i think it is right thing to do to get rid of it. by the way, we have to pass a tax cut that is a real cut for middle class and working class families. senator mccaskill --
neil: you think this is that? >> i think this is a step in the right direction in terms of what the president has proposed. the president has come forward with a blueprint a real tax cut for middle class families. would grow the economy. would provide relief to small business. i think congress ought to do its job now and implement a tax cut bill, write a tax cut bill that implements the president's framework, the right way to go. senator mccaskill should support it. neil: we'll watch it closely sir. thank you very much. good seeing. >> you thank you. neil: scotland could upend the entire alcohol industry, setting a floor for alcoholic beverages. that has some skittishness that this will reverberate worldwide. jeff flock, what that could mean for you. jeff? reporter: some ways, neil, this is already reverberating. this is a foot in scotland. a lot of people have not followed it, but for five years the scottish parliament actually passed this measure five years ago. it has been banging around in the courts.
essentially set as minimum price for liquor, the feeling poor people are drinking too much, and it's a real problem. so minimum pricing now means, to put it in some perspective, we have some numbers. hard cider is a big one there, folks with not a lot of money tend to drink. one liter bottle was $2.70. it is going to go up to $6.58. that is 144% increase. this is scotch, this is scotland. the famous grouse scotch, that is not kind you would drink, no mccall en's, it is cheap scotch, goes up to 26.31. that is 25% increase. there is move afoot in wales to do the same sort of thing. parts of canada already adopted this. estonia is looking to pass a measure that would put a minimum floor so there is no real cheap alcohol out there.
this had some negative affect on liquor companies around the world. take a look at numbers today. they're down with the rest of the market. but they have been fighting this. but this is kind of a last thing for them. their last opportunity to try to head this off, because, this ruling came in the uk supreme court, which is now allowed this, and everybody is going to have to go along with that as you point out there is some thought, whether concern or happiness that this could spread to other parts of the country, perhaps even here, where we tried to do, we tried to do something similar. it was a little more harsh, prohibition what i'm thinking of. neil: you were reading my mind. >> jacking up the price could work too. neil: have decider effect. did same with tobacco industry, taxing heck out of cigarettes to limit use the cigarettes and it did the trick, at least sig coven sum -- consumption is way
down. is that the point, price it out of reach? >> price it out of reach for those in a bad cycle. if you don't, that is the aim, those perhaps most vulnerable to try to jack up the price up on them. but of course some people would argue, they are just going to find another way to do it, and maybe eat even less. neil: that is crazy right there. thank you, jeff. very, very much. good seeing you. jeff flock. meanwhile we're looking at dow right now. it is down, in and out of 100 points. a lot of people are looking at what is the continuing trend here where four out of the last five trading days we're seeing the same thing. what is driving this? a lot of uncertainty what is happening with the tax package. a lot has to do with just fundamentals. the situation with oil prices and oil issues collapsing. the situation right now with utilities suddenly looking good, safe haven invests --
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>> welcome back to "cavuto: coast to coast." i'm nicole petallides on floor of new york stock exchange. all commodities dollar under pressure. dow jones industrial average is down 90 points. 23,319. lass week we sold off after eight weeks of gains. dow, nasdaq, s&p all down for the week, just under half of 1%, following commodity prices. delays in doubts on the tax overall weighing on equitying across the board, taking a look at energy. haliburton and all these under pressure. this as the energy administration saw unexpected increase in crude oil stock prices. energy and oil in particular extending losses for the week. general electric is laggard this week. right now slightly higher, but still down 11% this week, obviously in midst of a turnaround. but the dividend cut was bigger than expected. as a result of stock sold off to nearly six-year low this week to
17.46. right now ge is higher by 37 cents at 18.27, neil. neil: can't grasp the numbers. thanks very much, nicole. markets are lower as nicole pointed out, a lot has something to do with what is going on or maybe not going on tax cuts. seems to be moving along, sticking to very aggressive timetable, to charlie charlie gasparino? is that doable? >> markets took a little bit of a break. i don't see fear and loathing. if they were really worried about the tax plan on happening -- neil: they would be tanking. >> i would think it is 200 points now. neil: interesting how it starts in the day. yesterday, really rough morning and it almost evens out by -- >> you know, you start putting it all together, saying something is better than
nothing. neil: i don't buy that. >> here is the thing, neil. talking about getting rid of the individual mandate, to take the top rate down even further, down to 35%. then you start really talking about tax reform actually being real reform on the, on the individual side. i mean problem -- there -- neil: i thought they would play with the middle rates to bring them down. >> i heard trump say he wants a 35% top rate now. neil: okay. >> here is interesting thing. tax reform, clearly on corporate side, simplifying it, bringing it down dramatically. top corporate rate, individual side is mess. you can justify getting rid of state and local taxes. neil: 300 billion, the health care thing over 10 years. that gives you a lot of wiggle room, not as much as you think in this day and age. what if, you've been of the opinion, the people you talk to that the corporate thing is enough of a winner for you,
right? no as long as individual side is not that much of a loser. neil: glad you mentioned it. no matter how much of a winner, cutting 35 to 20%. if individuals are seeing a nominal net change in their paycheck, or, or, is -- >> tax increase. neil: that is going to bum a lot of folk out. >> i think they're playing with fire on the individual side in this sense. they're giving tax cuts to the middle class who don't pay a lot, federal income tax. neil: they pay other taxes. but child care for these folks, for a lot of folks who don't pay payroll taxes, we're not minimizing that, is leaves a smaller and smaller chunk of people paying income tax. >> it's a lie that congress and administration saying this is huge tax cut for middle class, because the middle class doesn't pay a the-income taxes.
they're blowing smoke there. they're raising taxes on middle class people in high-taxed states like new york and california. you're getting screwed if you don't get the state and local tax deduction. neil: the senate plan doesn't even include $10,000 mortgage so. >> you start getting better -- neil: bringing top rate down. >> those, quote, unquote, middle class people, then it doesn't matter as much because they're keeping more of their income. i think that is really where it has to go. if this become as tax increase, on people who pay most of the taxes, it destimulates the economy. neil: let me ask you this in our brief time, do you think, the corporations, especially ones incentivized to bring it back from abroad, take advantage of lower tax rates, don't invest in plant and equipment, buy more stuff, they're free to do, what is the fallout? >> first rule of thumb will be stock buybacks. that will be good for the market, if you have your money in the market. not necessarily great, immediate great for the economy. and then there will be more
money to play -- listen, the bottom line is this, unless you believe in socialism, you can't tell them exactly what to do with the money but -- neil: they're hoping. >> it has to go to some plant and equipment. it has to. you can't do everything with a stock buyback. just impossible. neil: these guys will find ways. >> listen, you will be richer because of that given your massive stocks holdings. neil: charlie gasparino. everything he is hearing, forget, largest tax cut, he says it doesn't come close to ronald reagan. but to hear david stockman talk about it, it doesn't come close to mass reality. why he is furious. after this.
trained to our right, republicans tried to sabotage and the markets are sign off markets are selling now for the time in apollo bay. there been some concern under china's all utilities looking good. utilities looking good, conservatives say stocks don't go up nearly as good. these could be short-lived events with serious down grasps in the morning tend to be lost by afternoon. we are getting a better idea of what the tax assessments are going. blake berman has the latest right now. hey, blake. reporter: tied there, neil. the senior white house official here over the last couple days. first, no real preference right
now from the white house on whether they prefer the senate plan or whether they prefer the house plan. these have started to diverge from each other in the last couple days, most notably with the senate including an obama cure individual mandate repeal when asked as the president for further one of these two, i was told we like those spirit on the second now, which relates to the individual mandate the senate is looking now, right now i'm told the white house at least feels good where the numbers stand on that, maybe the moderate senate republicans is where you got to look at any point when you talk about any portion of obamacare that the white house feels maybe some of these folks might not be so keen on combining all this together, but the end of the day they will support the policy position. marc short, point person for the white house between pennsylvania avenue and the capitol said earlier today he feels everything is on track.
>> he is supported by the underlying element and some on the thing is getting ironed out in conference but we look forward tomorrow in the senate vote after thanksgiving. >> a lot of a lot of attention in the last stage of the senate plan. keep in mind the president will be headed to capitol hill tomorrow when house republicans vote on their plan and he will rally just the vote takes place. neil: thank you very, very much. david stockman, best-selling author at what he makes of this. your concern is whether spending on programs or tax cuts, getting deeper in debt appears >> well, that's true. one point by a trillion bill added they get their target. they're already a 2 trillion by the time the bidding is over, in other words get rid of the loophole closures and member benefits to the middle class, which aren't in the current bill, we will be deep, deep in red. that is not a good thing to do with 20 trillion in public that
over the next decade before this. my argument is this is an economic.com a political landmine and ideological impostor per rating as a reaganesque supply-side tax cut when it's nothing like that. it's a wish list of business on wall street. by definition at the heart of supply-side is marginal rate cut. this is the top rate stays 39.6. he goes to 46% above the million. second, no individual cutting here. if you set aside the business, which i have a different critique of, 450 billion over 10 years of individual rate cuts. that is tiny. individuals will pay 22 trillion over that period. this is to .2%. neil: you don't think it's enough to move you >> i don't think it will move the needle.
this is not a middle-class tax cut either. if you take the middle-class, 55,000 to 95,000, a third of them get a tax increase of 1000 a year. two thirds get a decrease of a thousand. trade your averaging over 10 years. that they can make. it's fully effective. if you take the middle-class, their average tax cut is $6 a week, one cappuccino coming to cappuccinos, that's all they're getting. all of this -- >> one of the things i said is the argument for this feeling i've gotten into this before a something is better than nothing. i don't concur with that because if you give something that feels like it's nothing, we'll come back to hot you. i don't know something is better than nothing.
>> i think it's worse because if you look at this, for big regressions caused for .7 million, they will add to that ip is 200 billion is the estate tax relief for 5000 double not help the economy even if there is equity. 600 billion is for getting rid of the minimum tax. i pay appeared on not going to do anything different except that won't accomplish anything. the other 2 trillion is for business cuts in the thing we have to emphasize here is that workers don't pay the corporate tax rate in the business shareholders and owners do. so, they are set by the world market. wages are set by the world market. these corporate rate cut will go into share buybacks and dividends another returns to capital. neil: you have very little faith.
>> i think not at all. number one -- neil: are competitive instincts feedback, that they would almost after they've gotten ballad sheets in order they would be compelled to out did the other guy and a declining pool of talent available? >> i don't think so. first of all, the lowest capital because the fed is that the interest rate are practically zero for 10 years. inching up a little bit. right now there is no barrier to investment equity, debt, capital. it is all that can be done, is being done, tax rates are ineffective. second, the reason corporations are going our shores for lower labor costs. then they give one example. ibm had fewer employees in india in 1993. 103,000 now. i had 150,000 domestic employees back then. it had 90,000 or fewer now.
he went to india for much lower labor costs in the text supporting industries not because of tax rates. ibm tax rate is 11%. neil: the real thing that draws companies abroad isn't so much of the tax situation is, but the labor situation. >> much lower labor costs. the india price. >> wouldn't the lower tax rate at least mitigate that differential? >> no, i don't think you'll change labor costs. neil: with a labor cost him everything is the same but the tax poster manically differing. that would eat that up? >> no, no. it's not going to go into wages. it will go into dividends, stock buybacks, recaps. that is why wall street is foaming at the mouth for this. the white house economist who's not, who says it's 4000 higher
wages. wall street would be brewing day and night because you will have lower tax costs, higher wage costs, do a change in profits per share and none of this excitement. >> eventually you argued a long time the 20 plus trillion could be her nose, 30 trillion all is said and done. what are we looking at here? what would be the tipping point that within the alliance? >> the tipping point is around the corner. the fed is normal. rates are going up. one year from now it will be selling 600 alien government bonds a year. not buying, selling. the point is for the last 10 years it's been biding. >> hasn't assaulted while trumpeted? >> it doesn't matter if it's known. the market ignores every name.
obviously with the central banks of the world begin to shrink their balance sheets, the scale of supply and demand is going to change. the stock market today is built on low yields. some bonds are already selling off. share buybacks, which had been 5 trillion have been heavily supported by borrowing. if the firing stops, the whole game will begin to reverse. so i think we on the cusp right now and therefore if we do get another recession, which has to happen between now and 2027 otherwise he would have 207 months without a recession, which is double the longest expansion in history. if we have another recession, which were, which were though, which was built. off its 2020, 2023, we will have 35 trillion of public debt will tend before they get around with a tax cut that is wasted here to be wanted or a tax cut, cut the
payroll tax. i say it over and over. neil: where you put your money? >> i could stand her mattress, but i would say keep it out of the casino. the stock market is so agreed cheerfully overvalued, anticipating. neil: you were saying that thousands of pints ago. >> on the scene at a 92,000. drain too wordy but your money? >> right now the issue is safety, capital preservation. stay in cash, stay short. i think gold is wonderful. don't ask me about it going because i have no idea. it looks to me like a specular bubble. >> people talk about tangible assets. i talked to robert. they said the charts are looking grim now. they set up different charts i guess. the market has gradually declined.
what what makes the climb? >> it climbs this wall of worry because it believes that the fed is there to backstop the market and no matter what happens, the fed will come to rescue. they are dead wrong. >> the fed can make power. >> i doubt after 4.5 trillion the balance sheet they can go into another trillion or 2 trillion or 3 trillion because it does that it will need that the whole thing is failing. neil: when he worked with ronald reagan, he rarely talked about the stock market, and it came in handy and 87 because you still refuse to talk about it. this president doesn't stop talking about it. what you think when you think about an otherwise very private man to marry himself as this one has to the market. they've had a good run out. what do you think? >> it's the mistake any president has made in a long
time. he should've gone in and said this is a huge, ugly big bubble, whatever he said during the campaign. but he should have said the fed is behind this. we were fundamental change. janet yellen, you are out. put someone in. the guide now is janet yellen with the tying trousers. he should've punctured the bubble, blamed it on obama, the prior swamp in washington. he didn't do it. this is pure speculation. in other words, speculators will keep fighting until they had something. china is the red sign. the economy bounced a little bit in the run-up to the congress, which is really the coronation, they opened up the credit
expansion like never before. the credit info spread to the whole economy. there is a lift in commodities. but also look what they reported two nights ago. at tober already, they've begun to reverse direction. in other words, xi has become the greatest dictator and now he's realized he's got a 40 trillion bubble on his hands and if he doesn't remade in, you know, the whole thing -- neil: congress is over and so is the party. >> exactly what people need to understand. in the world economy slows down and all of this ridiculous hockey stick forecast now changes, the market will correct big time. do you know that earnings in
this quarter were 106 a share for s&p 500 the same as it was three years ago in september 2014. we have been going nowhere. neil: that's a day with 9%. >> i was in this valley. going through the python because of legislation. when you go nowhere in three years and then you have the key not to read ponzi beginning to unravel coming you want to pay 25 times earnings right now. neil: you must be a blast at thanksgiving. >> we get the turkey going. this turkey is about ready. thank you very much david stockman whether you agree or disagree. member the historical perspective, what a scene, where they stand. all out there.
bennett. let's say he doesn't go anywhere camera stays on the ballot actually rants. despite polls showing by 46 points depending on that. what do republicans do it them? these charges against him dated that decade so do not correct for misdemeanors so what do they do? >> well, they could refuse to see him,. got 48 democrats they would do it seating 18 republicans. you could get that that point. stun their endorsements, severed ties, that is not a far-fetched possibility. and he may end up winning. either way, they either go that route or he loses then they've got democrats in the senate which takes the margin for a 50 to 48 to 5149 that's why they
get this done before the election is held in less than a month. neil: i know, december 12. do you think it's doable? >> it's tight, but still doable. the house will pass. this week they will pass her back from thanksgiving and they've got two or three weeks to conference. very, very tight and very tight and depends if they can get the can get this stuff ironed out. they've also got a refund the government. which is the fact they've got this into december so they've got to do that again. most people have a one or two week continuing resolution to just get it out of the way so they can get tax reform done because that's a top priority right now. neil: if you look at it in a tax cut itself, they argue something is better than nothing and it's usually the case because republicans come at zero and anything else they've attempted. i don't know if i subscribe to
that is something you're coming up with and notwithstanding and it might not amount to a big change minute they see next year. they might hold it against republicans and say this is what you guys were rallying around in bragging about. this is nothing. what do you think? >> i think it's a political necessity. if they don't pass it up under 2018. the economy access with or without the tax cut than they benefit from matt or not. to go into 2018 was not a legislative accomplishment is going to be really tough for them. they couldn't get their act together. one of the philosophies you can excuse the health care because that's not a republican issue. at its core since it began and
for them not to do something on that i think would be worse than doing with half a loaf. neil: the idea they want to marry this with kicking out the individual mandate in the senate and hopefully they get how support, speaker ryan indicating the lead i'm not, but the support for that book first like revisiting the third rail. that is not exactly help than in the past, but they think they have support here because it would just be removing a requirement, not something you have and that might be true. what do you think? >> if he saw the fireworks this morning, you know this has reattached that third rail. they did. whether it ends up or not.
republicans in the house think they can pass it. it will be part of the final bill. it certainly will help give them some wiggle room on the numbers if they can get it done. you've got call in saying this is a bit of an issue. it is a sticking point. see how it plays out. if they can get it through, certainly they will get it through the house. neil: thank you very much. good seeing you again. neil: to jeff sessions disappoint yesterday not for democrats, but republicans could a special prosecutor in the latest issue of uranium one and what have you. if he had said that he didn't think it warranted that at this stage were hinted about, what happens now? whoooo.
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aware of the december 12 special election in alabama where roy moore is not indicating anyone to step down in the leadership he's not budgeting. presumably they want to get everything done right now. already looking at a measure they are ready to vote on. we're told tomorrow when the president comes to down and visits capitol hill the senate marking up his own plan some substantially from this that it does have the health care mandate provision that everybody gets health care would free up about $300 billion over 10 years. ron desantis. how do you feel about that? they are quite cute and have support for it. >> the parties complained in campaign against obamacare for seven years to the individual mandate penalty is the most unpopular provision of obamacare. it has a lot of middle income
and working class families with a cruel tax, see where removing burden of a lot of people. the latest cbo scores this stuff come you get 350 billion you could use for further rate reductions. i don't think repealing would reveal that but we are on the short end of the stick at the cbo. if you add that to the house bill, you would go with the race so every taxpayer is getting a tax cut. that's important. that's what we've always campaigned on. it would be a win for taxpayers and for folks who've been burdened by obamacare. >> just to be clear, this could provide the means by which you provide everyone a tax cut. the house plan does provide a tax cut. are you for using some of the money to do just that? the senate plan does take a 39 points x-ray them bring it down to 3825.
would that be more to your liking then let's say immediately the corporate rate tax cuts to next year? >> the corporate rate is 20. if you add in the 350, that is sufficient to then be able to lower the top three. neil: the lower the top grade to get the 20% corporate rate effect did next year. >> you are taking away a lot of deductions. there are much fewer deductions right now. we were going to lower the nearly breakeven. they can make the code more progrowth. so we should take the opportunity and do it. it will not be added for the first note. there is going to be a lot of debate going forward about this and most voters, republican voters will ask why a including the mandate repeal.
>> if you'll indulge me, roy moore is not stepping down in this race and i'm just thinking if he were dead, senator from alabama, do you think colleagues in the senate should kick in now? >> i'm not sure how that works in the pre-senate conduct. i would know you have a sitting senator right now on trial robert menendez. i've heard them talk about kicking him out when those are very serious allegations as well. i'm not exactly sure how it works in terms of the senate rules. it is hard to overrule the voters. they know this conduct and do they believe it or not. if they vote for the other guys they will win. if they want to send way more comment that is their
prerogative as voters of the sovereign state. >> were quickly while i have you here. jeff sessions team to telegraph he wasn't keen on appointing special counsel. what the are quick matters coming uranium sale in the obama administration that it didn't seem to warrant that. other legal types told me that he has mechanisms within the justice department itself that he could do this without a special counsel. how did you feel about that? >> you could. the reason we asked for special counsel if there is no conflict you should never special counsel. in his testimony for being confirms that he would recuse anything involving the clintons including the foundation. maybe that's not what is ultimately done. maybe after diocese determined he doesn't need to recuse, but it's a question his testimony didn't answer is the actually recused for dealing with the
foundation. >> he didn't want to look like he was doing donald trump. >> that may be the case as well. it may well be possible they are investigating or did it allow us talking today's informant. he will provide congress with a lot of documents. whether the justice department know before the deal was approved? you have this controversial deal and no one in congress seem to know there is a racketeering and bribery investigation going on connected with it. neil: congressman ron desantis, thank you. >> thank you had neil: a talk about all the debt the government has sitting on $20 trillion now 30 trillion, 10 years. i hate to break it to you that your household situation could be looking pretty bad, too. maybe not you personally. i'm preaching to the choir. a new report shows household
debt is an even bigger worry than government that. we will spell it out and pursue in a fine mood for thanksgiving. after this. ♪ dad: we walk inside... and it's raining... our home was ruined... we couldn't live there. mom: our first concern was the kids. this was going to be hard on them. chubb got us a place to stay in the same school district. otherwise it could have been a nightmare. dad... chubb turned a disaster into an adventure for our kids. mom... and no one missed a day of school. ♪
neil: all right, retail sales up second month running could a lot of activity soaring a finesse that comes in. cohost lauren simonetti, what is going on at that? >> wherein the beginning of the holiday shopping season. retail sales report for last-minute surprise in the good. retail sales rising to 10 to 1%. yes coming down from september. however, hurricane related bug. what by last month? cars come electronics and clothing. you can see the gap behind me. clothing sales at their biggest increase in seven months. the report today saying half of all online sales this holiday
season are going to amazon. i do can be put back your brick and mortar. target is competing spending a lot of money and that investment bacon in the profit. down sharply today 24% this year and when they reported earnings this morning, investors said their holiday forecast disappointing despite coming in at almost $17 in revenue in showing times target is making this turnaround. talking about that when you came to me. this is also interesting and alarming. the new york fed said roosting debt reach almost $13 trillion. that is averaged total household debt. a record high and about 5% outstanding. which means we are following the link went on our loans mostly auto loans as well as credit card balances. but we are spending more money
and also backing a. neil: we are doing that. thank you very much. lauren simonetti. will the holiday season keep the shopping going? retail watcher extraordinaire, what do you think? >> yeah, learn the same how there is a lot of debt going on. you have to understand since the recession we've been seeing the holiday shopping numbers increase incrementally every single year. the national retail federation is estimated 59% of people will go out during the holiday, meaning black friday is thursday on the cybermonday as well. that's a lot in paypal estimated 80% will be doing that shopping via mobile devices. they are leaving their homes to go shopping. >> what about the wal-mart strategy to entice people back to their stores.
how is that all going to factor out and play into this? >> when you talk about wal-mart, wal-mart is not agnostic when it comes to pricing online versus in the stores. it's actually cheaper to get the merchandise to those stores versus shipping individual products to the home. with that said, wal-mart wants to pass along savings to customers by having them come into the stores. target does this, you'll see polls do that a lot. in general, it's more expensive than those who don't have this component. amazon, the big juggernaut everyone will compete with this holiday season will get those prices down low. i've been watching this over the next couple weeks now, that's what i'm focused on. neil: since the whole foods acquisition is now expanding the price cut across a broad range
of items and to try to make it easier, even though a prime customer group are not the coupon it seems like a multistep process, but ignoramuses like myself, even for amazon would you think this is going to mean? >> amazon is trying to get away from his thinking away from us think in a soul food does whole paycheck. at the end of the day, despite them having this pricing strategy, you have to think about it, too. they are targeting the prime customer and their whole mission is to garner more prime customers. in terms of pricing, they are probably going to offer those coupons to them to entice new customers in new customers than they are. if you go through whole foods i don't know how often you walk through whole foods but i'm a whole foods shopper because it's right down the street from my house. neil: una are joined at the hip
on that stuff the hip en masse after the prices aren't that much different as of now. tree into its funny how you would just make the assumption that i might not be a whole foods customer. thank you very much. good seeing you. whole foods notwithstanding, the market in a whole lot of trouble lately. for the last five days selling off here. what is going on? >> i think it's just a little bit of a certainty getting discounted. i would view any sort of weakness as an opportunity to add the positions. to me, the dominant theme has been and should continue to be very broad based global growth not generated a lot of inflation. thus the sweet spot. or 20 of her tax refund, but i don't see that the railing the bull market in risk assets. neil: a lot of the ones leading the charge down have been some of the heaviest performers, amazon among them in some of these others. do you get a sense they were due anyway so what?
>> yeah, i do. nothing is going higher in a straight line. there's always opportunities. pullbacks, profit-taking. i don't see these being trends changing types of developments. neil: i went to pick your brain on this. a lot of people are convinced corporations once they get their tax cut and money they've been holding off a broad, they will pour into hiring people and then looking at the reality of full employment and then some in the united states even having the lead in balance sheets. they are free to do it. what if they plowed back into their stock or boost their dividends and they don't do what republicans think they will do. >> yeah, you know, someone at the bond is telling us that. a flat yield curve in the longer the curve yields have been range bound and you're actually right. there is no guarantee all of a
sudden you'll have all this money allocated to cap ex equipment. it might just sit idle. it's something we've got to watch closely. the other point you alluded to is we are not in recession. we've been having this multiyear expansion. not a lot of roofers and framers sitting idle. whether they -- if they do pass this tax reform. neil: even the corporate cuts aside, the individuals realize i know my taxes went down, but gosh darn it and looking at this and realizing my neck isn't that different than what it was last year in 2018 and 2017. then why. >> i'm not sure everybody's taxes are going down. i don't think this tax reform is a game changer. i don't see a lot of pent-up demand in a consumer sector.
if they don't pass it and i think they will because of political side drivability i cannot imagine republicans not been able to get something done after the virginia new jersey governor ships to democrats. they'll look at this as a big driver of growth. having said that, that's a positive because the fed will continue to go slow. the fiscal stimulus results in a big surge. it would be offset by the fed. to me being a market participate, it's almost more important that the fed is doing than missiles or tax reform. neil: interesting stuff. you might be right on that. again, to your point, everything could be status quo and that would be just fine. when they come back, looking a little bit more republican efforts to repeal the so-called obamacare mandate. that's a required that you have to have. if they remove that, they figure they can save about $330 billion
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this miniature but that provision on the individual mandate, that it would pass? >> i think so. we've done a lot of discussing on this. this is not something that was tossed out in the last day or so. we've talked about this for at least a week and we really wanted to have it scored. we have to find out what the impact would be. as recently as yesterday, for the basic repeal would be about $338 billion. neil: senator mike rounds talking about this provision where they would kill the requirement you have to have health care the individual mandate frees up a lot of money. deirdre bolton has been there to spell it out. a little over 300 alien over 10 years. >> we can really trust the data,
and the premiums will go up by about 10% over the ten-year period and also the 13 million americans. starting in 2020. to keep you in our coverage. people who don't really need the insurance. neil: understood, understood. how realistic is this. the best of intentions it up in their face. this is just removing a burden, not a penny that they are going to be fine with it and they were okay with it. what do you think. >> it seems like the moderate republicans.
you mentioned senator murkowski, mccain. the last time in july when repeal and replace was launched. this was a different situations saying this is all about the taxation in penalty it is jammed in, glued on to this tax reform plan. and they are in their view fix the obamacare problem. nobody knows politically because you have the moderate senators, all the democrats i will assume we'll go against it. neil: getting a democratic votes. >> obviously making the tax cuts as individuals, >> that's the idea and it's
affecting as we -- this is what could be supporting middle-class families and if you listen to the gop talking points, this is why we are doing this to be able to help it. the context going as well as 2012 in the supreme court saying this is a legislative matter, not a judicial matter. remember, that was the biggest deal to decide on since the presidential election in the year 2000. going for her to your point obviously i don't have a crystal ball. it's all about the moderate republicans. i took down a note of what senator collins said. we make it far more controversial. they have not indicated they would oppose it. that's why they're being quiet. >> what are you hearing on not
rushing mark they want to get back i'm to make the election not an issue. how likely is that? >> i'm sorry, no good answer, no clarity. a lot of moving parts to that as well. probably not, but i do want to be quoted on it. sometime i come out with good strong quotes. not so much today. neil: that the republicans keep. after that all bets are off. now you are dealing with 99 and one less republican. >> mitch mcconnell came in and said i think moore should step aside here to me that was just a game changer. neil: a game changer in the tax code it again, we are accelerating our downdraft here right now. we are now down 22 points. of course he came up here. way to go, deirdre.
no matter how the markets change... at t. rowe price... our disciplined approach remains. global markets may be uncertain... but you can feel confident in our investment experience around the world. call us or your advisor... t. rowe price. invest with confidence. neil: you know i always caution not reading too much into a selloff. we sell off by the end of the day, eh. yell off seems to have a lot of concerns about oil prices dropping and s&p 500 stocks dropping down with them. we'll explore this how it affects the tax cut talk back and forth.
with senate majority whip john cornyn my special guest. the president headed to capitol hill, ahead of the tax vote. they wouldn't schedule that unless they were optimistic if they didn't have the votes which they probably do in the house. the senate? anyone's guest. trish regan. trish: thank you, neil. president trump will address the nation in a short time. he will make a major announcement, quote a major announcement on trade and north korea. we'll bring you the president live as soon as he comes out to speak. all of this as tax reform moves forward with big new wrinkle. senators may scrap the obamacare mandate. now the fate of the bill is ever more uncertain. the dow is down 125 points. i'm trish regan. welcome to "the intelligence report." we have new details on that