tv The Journal Editorial Report FOX Business August 18, 2019 8:00am-9:00am EDT
prosperity. that's it for this week. join us next week when we'll be talking about the trillion dollar federal deficits and whether they matter. right here on "the wa we will see a 4:00 p.m. eastern. welcome to the journal editorial report. i terminate -- turbulent week president trump blaming the federal reserve for the market meltdown but the own trade policies the own trade policies -- economic growth. an investment strategy economic and policy research firm. how worried are you now about the u.s. economy or both.
looking across the next year. it's clear that the u.s. economy is slowing somewhat. the chances are quite low. we are so consumer-oriented and we run a trade deficit. other countries like germany are much more dependent on exports. it is much harder on them i think it's fair to say that the u.s. economy is slowing particularly manufacturing which is a big part of the volatility of the economy. the manufacturing globally seems to be in a recession in my right about that? speemac as i said the u.s. economy is about 85% services and 15% manufacturing. they make up a big portion of the corporate profits in the big part of the volatility of the economy. >> a big part of high wage
jobs. it is hard to do these policies. we can argue whether it's appropriate to trade policies are sterilizing some of the supply side affects. >> we have a big increase in capital investment in the wake of an attack reform. now, that has fallen off. do you think, that seems to have that trade is the big corporate there. a large business in particular about 40% of their profits come from outside the united states. the global economy is slowing is natural to see a slowdown in capital spending growth. it was was about 11% is about 3% this year. it slowed down quite a bit. and it is hard to see businesses making big capital spending plans when there is
such an on-again off-again approach. trade with the largest trading partner. we have a symbiotic relationship for years. a lot of does with them. president trump trying to rebalance our relationship. did he underestimate the short-term short term cost with that trade policy shock businessmen and ceos are no more courageous than public company ceos. job number one is ceo. even if you have a five-year accelerated appreciation of capital spending you could be spending a lot more time with your family if you made the wrong choice. so much of competence is based on how people are feeling at the time the large company companies can have finance
department. of the marginal. it's really dependent on how you are feeling. and it is clear that the tax cut was enough for growth for the first year about larry on trade on top of following up with trade was probably too much for the business community to bear as a whole. >> china has not really have a recession since the start of the reform going back to the late 70s early 1980s. recession stimulus. what was the impact on the american economy be china does go into contraction. i don't think it would be that much. a lot of it depend on what the currency looks like you can have an impact on corporate markets in the stock market.
it certainly would have an impact on business confidence and possibly investor confidence that was really what you saw this week. china a big consumer of commodities. and oil so. oil command globally and that kind of low oil price. it was great for america because we imported all of it. we've all of this domestic production. could you see a real downturn in the oil patch. the 3% growth that was sustainable. we were on a path to do that or two or three for years. and now we are looking at it. it implies a level of sophistication.
>> 1.8 percent for gdp growth for next year. i think the point i would say whether the commodities or other energies. you are already seen the growth and decline to more like 20% or a little bit less. i believe it is less at the current projection. the fed has to end. as it stands now. >> fifty basis point cut in september. >> i don't think they will do that but they should. i think unfortunately right now because of what has happened in the global bond market has to ease aggressively. >> the consequences of an economic downturn. president trump's reelection prospects depend on a strong economy can they whether a slowdown. our panel weighs in. but you have no choice but to vote for me because your 4o1k
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let me you for some reason i would not run the election these markets would have crashed. and that all happened even more so in 2020. >> you've no choice to vote for me because your 4o1k down into everything would be down the tube. so whether you love me or hate me you have to vote for me. that was president trump at a campaign rally in manchester new jersey. amid a growing sign that the trade war with china is taking a toll. they announced tuesday that 10% tariff on some exports including cell phones, laptops and toys will be postponed.
an acknowledgment that this could hurt american consumers during the christmas shopping season. >> assistant editorial page editor. the president said he got to like him because his 4o1k that means the 4o1k has taken over the next 16 months. he's really betting the house on continued prosperity. >> i think that is the main argument for his reelection. especially if they nominate a bernie sanders or not elizabeth warren whose promising socialist revolution and fundamental restructuring of america i think a lot of people are going to say despite his faults i have to vote for him. >> are you concerned about that the economy is showing signs of wobbling. to you have this different right now where ceos are
nervous they're not investing. they're worried about trade. the people that work for them are happy and well-paid and while employed. the consumer economy is strong american workers are showing a very strong economic signal that investment on the corporate side not so much. >> dean big fight on the trade policy. particularly helter-skelter nation -- nature of it. a lot of people cheer us on on that. someone outside folks. horton backed by don't dare criticize the president on that. but there is a fundamental economic policy debate here. >> i don't think the debate is over trade per se we do need a trade deal with china it centers on the idea of terrace
and the tariffs that the president imposes. he has tried to make them part of the deal with china. i think a lot of people inside the white house are afraid the continued overhang of the terrorist threat is having a suppressive effect on the economy going forward. and prices could begin to rise as a result of the tariffs going into next year it could damage the prospects in states like iowa and north carolina but i would say if it raises prices, it can have the same effect as rising gasoline prices if the general feeling is a crisis -- prices are rising because of the tariffs. thought transferred to the president. a mac do you think you would rather run for reelection with the chinese trade deal or run against china and say i am a china hot and joe biden is a
softy? i fundamentally think the president want winds. if you look at him as his rally in new hampshire he doesn't want to come out of this unless he can claim huge giant victory. so i think this is what you're saying instead if he doesn't think he can get that he will run on the ladder and say okay this is actually good for the economy were actually making money with these tariffs in joe biden or any democrat but only make things worse. they would be softies they would cave for a deal but i think the real problem here is even as this announcement from the white house acknowledged what has been paid from here in isolated industries like the farming sector there is a risk that it doesn't spread to consumers and become harder sell to make the tariffs are good thing. the president of their great.
>> not so great. these things have a cough. if cost. if he was looking for a cosmetic when that he could claim as a victory he would have settled long ago. he wants to reset the terms of trade with china i think if this succeeds and he gets them to stop feeling stealing so much intellectual property hats off to him. we are seeing the cost. take away the trade is ready to roar. you look at productivity in the labor markets. we are near historic highs on a number of job openings. small business confidence very high. if you take away that issue i think he cruises to reelection with the roaring economy. they are basically saying the economy is in trouble it's a week to see a downturn coming. she is putting herself in the position to run as a forecast downturn and that there is and
i'm not smart enough to know if it it really goes up i don't think it goes up enough. i think the president put his finger on something. there's economic downturn voters say the republicans are doing so i can transfer my vote to the democrats. the new democratic party is different than the former one it is so far left and i think the president has put his finger on it have become almost unbelievable if there is a recession. when we come back as a crisis president trump appears to change his tone. the beijing's response to the protests our own julian is in ♪
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>> i am concerned i would not want to see a violent crackdown. i would really like to see china in a humane way song the -- solve the problem in hong kong. and i think they can do it very quickly. >> protests are turning increasingly violent in hong kong. please continue for a tenth straight week. protesters taking to the street and shutting down the airport there as chinese paramilitary forces gather near the hong kong border. they are signaling a trip shift in tone. in trade talks with beijing to the protests for the first time calling on chinese president to humanely settle the situation. >> jillian mentzer is in hong kong with the latest. hey jillian nice to see you again. >> are the protests in a
continued and what do they want. what is a really want. >> just as i was headed over to the studio a big group gathered outside. en going on a pretty regular basis but peak on the weekends. >> they had five basic demands they want the extradition bill that kicks this whole thing off fully withdrawn. they had declared dead. they could be new for. they also want democracy that something they consider important but to protect against the police abuse that we been seen. investigation into some of the abuses they want retraction of the designation that is variety. on top of that they want the chief executive carrie lamb to step step down. >> i don't think they will get democracy. that would be the kind of thing that china if he let them happen in hong kong then
that lesson might seep into the mainland. do you see any chance of that happening? protesters are very determined and when i talk to them they point out that they feel like they had beijing in a situation where if it really cracks down on the protest it would hurt the economy. they would suffer real reputational harm. these are pretty serious demands. how far is this can go on the protesters are gaining momentum but on the other side you have escalating the police violence in a government that has few incentives to back down. i think it's a pretty explosive situation. the chinese and the government of hong kong beholden to the chinese. they really did separate the business community from some of the protests and demands. they got tired of this interference with commerce and
the normal functioning of the territory. >> is china trying to repeat that strategy should mark the mac i think we've seen that this week. firing a couple of employees who participated in support of the protest. and unseen than any other employees who do the same our subject to disciplinary risk. that's a big deal in hong kong huge economic engineer it's gone for the big ice he better get it designed. that was mostly students and young people. we are seen a lot of broader support across the community. it's pretty incredible all of the different sectors that are participating in this. i think it's can be tougher. >> café pacific obviously has a lot in china.
did he resign under pressure? >> that was a clear message that if you allow your protesters and employees to go into the streets you can see real negative consequences. >> keep in mind this is the company that has significant ownership in china if anybody had been insulated from it and thought that it might keep them safe from pressure that has not been the case. i think a lot of businesses are feeling --dash mike feeling vulnerable. they support the hong kong government and the police with them and the actual people of hong kong. the students and the young people. >> how do you think donald trump has handled the situation. it didn't start out well he said it was something for them to settle between themselves.
as now got much better as they understand the stakes are very high in hong kong and it does relate to the trade deal. normally i think hong kong should be understood as kind of stand in a prototype for problems. throughout china throughout the year. they spent $300 billion on domestic security. he does not want to liberalize politically. that is what we are seeing in hong kong. if they go in with any site of the police force. does it end prospects for the u.s. a china trade deal? >> i think there would be damage what do hong kong folks
think about how they have behaved here. they are very happy to see him finally taking us a stand up assigned to them. they would like more international support and they would bring up the u.s. treats hong kong differently because it does have a rule of law. it is a place that is much more free. they keep pointing to that. though special designations and protections made it there. certain trade still ahead on the week. democrats are beginning to worry former democrat joe biden is too old to be the 2020 nominee. he spends less time on the campaign trail. ♪ here i go again on my own ♪ goin' down the only road i've ever known ♪
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year. but the 76-year-old still maintains a sizable in real clear politics average beating closest competitor by more than a dozen points. we are back with dan henninger, kim strassel, and kyle peterson. so, kim, how big a liability is age for joe biden? >> well, in some regard, paul, you look at biden and when he makes gaffes, we are hearing the word more a lot, doesn't surprise because joe biden's entire career is full of spectacular gaffes like that. what has caused alarm and why we are having debate, some of the comments suggested, they're a little bit more concerning like when he's recalling to -- suggesting that margaret thatcher is the prime minister of england, those suggest some sort of short-term memory issue or something, that's why people are bringing this up. i think the question is does
biden do something forceful to respond to this and turn it back to say reagan did in 1984 during that debate, but otherwise it is going to continue to dog him. paul: function of age, kyle, than performance, that is one of the reasons this has come up because first debate performance was so shaky, he has since made a lot of verbal gaffes saying, for example, he met with the parkland, florida kids, the survivors from the school shooting when he was vice president, well, that didn't happen until after he was vice president. >> it's a long campaign, he will show that he will have to show that he has the stuff to go the distance. a little humor can help here, a few weeks ago suggested jokingly that he will challenge president trump's push-up contest that kind of line may work. i think he that -- has to deal h the issue.
warren buffet is 80 year's old, selling berkshire hathaway stock, no. [laughter] >> he can be quite forceful and quite good, he has to deal with this somehow otherwise it's going to dog him. paul: dan, i want to ask philosophical question of age and the presidency, the oldest leader, modern western leader was conrad, chancellor germany in the post era, 14 years until he was 87, great leader of germany, okay, but we haven't had that kind of an old leader here in the united states and there's a question you and i both know people in 80's and 09's, some sharp and really on it but others can deteriorate rapidly, should we be thinking and debating somebody serving until late 70's or early 80's can do the job? >> well, i think it's a legitimate issue for voters to think about, look, paul, if that -- if that election were this
november, then so what? he can run. conrad, 90 year's old did not have to run in a presidential campaign that ran for 15 months running day after day across the country the size of the united states and now you've got some of biden allies saying we should slow down schedule and not push him late in the afternoon and so forth, there's a sense, paul, presidential campaigning in the united states has become a young person's game, 76, 77 year's old is old, you just don't have that energy anymore and if it begins to show going into late this year that people like biden or even bernie sanders are running out of gas, i think democratic voters will start to migrate over to some of the other candidates. paul: kim, donald trump 73 year's old and he will be 74 next june, so he'd be 74 upon being sworn in a second time, but he clearly wants to make an issue of this, calling biden
sleepy joe, is -- is this going -- and trump -- in his favor he does have boundless energy and seems to. is he going to make that a contrast with biden? >> well, of course, he is, you know, there's the age difference between him and biden might not be huge but you can believe that he will point it out as much as he possibly can. and i do think that this is potential something for democrats to think about as well too, because donald trump is all about contrast and as you said, one thing that absolutely defines this president is the amount of energy he has, he's a very vigorous person and he will not be able to wait, if you get a biden as nominee or bernie sanders as nominee to make that distinction and you already hear him hearing sleepy joe, joe is not operating on a full deck, you bet that he's going to double down on that, either of those men are the nominees.
>> kyle, if you were competing younger democrat, elizabeth warren is 70, would you explicitly begin to call this out or would you let the media do it? >> well, i think you have to do it politely but especially if you're in the moderate lane in lower tier, i think that's going to have to be something they will have to go after, one of the reasons that this hasn't hurt biden is alternatives, if you're a modern democrat you have socialist and you have the chicken-egg problem where lower-tier moderates can't rise because biden is subbing up all the vote and until he falls they are not perceived as real options. paul: alternatives were bernie sanders, elizabeth warren and kamala harris in between biden and the next tier. all right, thank you all, when we come back, shifting stories from official in moscow following deadly explosion at remote military base in russia, general jack keane on what we know about the mysterious blast and the changing nature of the
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with nuclear weapons or weapons in general is actually far below the norm that he's countries have and this is evidence of it, they lost a nuclear submarine in 2000 to undersea explosion, since 2006 they've had 6 fires on nuclear submarines and just last month in july, in july they had another fire, 14 sailers were killed by undersea submersible and they've had 3 in the last 90 days, 3 plans have had explosions and killing people and what -- what the russians do much out of the play book of the soviets, as soon as these things happen, particularly something that involves potential radiation exposure, they -- they deny that it's a serious event, they claim that are on control of it and mip miez as much -- minimize as much as they can. paul: we have satellite abilities andradeuation
detection abilities too, what does the american government know and the pentagon know about what this -- what causes this explosion? >> i don't think we know exactly what caused it but we do know that they are exploring technology that the united states abandoned because they didn't think it was achievable, to put a small nuclear reactor an out cruise missile which would give it unlimited range not inhibited obviously by fuel source and also make it quite penetrable in terms of breaking through defenses. we gave that up years ago, the russians have been at this for some time, they had a major incident last summer concerning implementation. paul: just so viewers can get an idea of what this means, reactor to power cruise missile which
would be able to take off presumably maybe russia proper and travel to the united states or hawaii or guam or wherever and that would mean that we could not defend against that with our missile interceptors in alaska, for example. >> that's correct, and we would have difficulty tracking it. i mean, the russians have clearly been involved in advanced technology and they have developed and certainly have the capability of doing that, we suspect this is achievable but even putin, he showed as part of the state of the union last year, he showed a video caricature where he did take off from russia as you indicated, went all the way far to south america and came up and penetrated into florida interesting enough where president trump has his second home, just to demonstrate versatility of it and the adaptability of this missile.
now, that was just a video caricature of it, that's their intent and it would be permittable if they were able to achieve it. >> it's going to be very difficult to get. but are we entering here a new era of weapon's development beyond what we've seen in the cold war or even with intercontinental ballistic missiles that will make the united states potentially vulnerable to new threats even those from afar and even the u.s. homeland? >> yeah, i think what is actually happening is the nuclear controls that we've had in place that began in the reagan-gorbachev era are being removed, most notable 1987 missile treaty achieved then, the russians began violating that recently and the united states pulled out of it, china is not in that deal whatsoever and they have developed the tactical nuclear weapons, it's something that we all got rid of in the past, so there's going to
be a growth in that area, now, the only thing the united states can do to -- to fort this is what we've done during the cold war and that means we have to develop an in-kind capability ourselves which obviously we can do to make certain that there's a deterrence there, also the russians and chinese have both upgraded their strategic nuclear weapon's capability. the united states is just in the process of beginning funding for that. so we are going to generally see upgrade in tactical nuclear weapons, something we have done away with, china has been and also across the gone increase among 3 major powers, strategic nuclear weapons. paul: briefly, general, one of the things that the congress -- some in congress and the administration want to develop interimmediate conventionally armed fis sill that we can put on guam to be able to strike in north korea, congress and the house has passed a bar on even
developing that, that strikes me as a mistake, briefly. >> no, i think we should develop that weapon system because we need -- we need to proud capability deterrent to china's western pacific, they hold us at bay by long-range missiles, we have to get capability in there to provide deterrence, we are not looking for a conflict but we want to take away any thought that they would have about a potential conflict and cause pause on them. >> appreciate it, mitch mcconceal's -- mcconnell's twitter back in business, they can't police their own can't police their own anticonservativeoh, come on. flo: don't worry. you're covered. (dramatic music) and you're saving money, because you bundled home and auto.
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>> mitch mcconnell's campaign twitter account is back up and running after the social media giant briefly suspended last week claiming that protestors shouting profanities and protestors outside of home violated policy, that incident seen by many conservatives as latest evidence of big-tech bias and some calling on the government to act, we are back with dan henninger, allysia finley and kyle peterson, was it justified in cutting the account down? >> i think there's two separate issues, whether they have the right to shut the account down which i do think and whether they should have and the latter i think that it's very dubious, a lot of tech platforms is they really haven't applied consistent policy which has led to allegations that they are
biased against conservative and this was the case in point. paul: so they finally did decide to reopen it and what's the lesson of that, if you shout enough and put enough political pressure on twitter which there was a lot of, they will give way? >> i think that's right in most cases but also pushback from the left, i mean, you saw that with alex jones and people shouted and ordered them to take down his post and so there's going to be -- they are under series political and public pressure and how does it navigate that, i don't know. >> do you think that consistency here has to be the guide for them, they have to apply the same standard to the left than they do the right? >> i think that they do, the problem is that they don't have -- they don't have rules or policy guidelines unlike, for instance, they imply and many people are upset, serena
williams gets fined for unsportsman like conduct and there's a code of conduct and right now twitter doesn't have one. paul: what do you make of that point? >> con sis eveningy is impossible standard, there are 500 hours of the up loaded to youtube and twitter gets 500 million tweets a day, the idea that you could apply some sort of rules consistently across that massive of a fire hose, i think it's impossible. one example a group of lgbtq users who sued this week saying similar to conservative claims that their videos are being restricted or marked as mature, even when the consent is not mature and does anybody think that google and youtube have some secret antilgbt bias into their systems, no. paul: what do we do here then, dan, on the broader policy? ted cruz senator from texas are
saying we need to have the government get in here and certify that bill that you are unbiased? >> well, i pretty much agree with kyle, it's an impossible goal but i understand the instinct, i have sympathy on both sides here, look, paul, when the platforms began nobody predicted that this level, this ocean of political bile would result from it and are very much out of control, the difference is that the thumb on the scale here left-wing bias are the big tech workforce, they clearly are biased against conservatives which result in mitch mcconnell's website being pulled down, the responsibility falls on the leadership of the companies to make clear to the people working for them that people like mitch mcconnell do not pose a threat in any way, and that you have to have something looking like balance otherwise congress is going to step in. paul: do you they that they should step?
>> no, anything they do or anything that they floated here is probably likely to be ruled unconstitutional. >> on free speech. >> free speech grounds. we had case which supreme court ruled that even platforms that receive government funding they still can police their own platforms and they were very clear on this point that they do not have to abide by even the first amendment rights, they can do whatever they want. paul: briefly, federal trade commission for speech? >> yeah, i think that's a bad idea. sets up impossible standards except government impose standards, my question is if you think twitter is biased against you why are you on twitter? [laughter] >> all right, we have to take one more break, when we come back hits and misses of the back hits and misses of the
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>> time now for hits and misses of the week. kim, start us off. >> house judiciary chairman jerry nadler wants the nation to think every interaction for the house has what is obstruction and grounds for impeachment.this is a hit to a federal judge howell firm in the country that dealing with complex issues, she denied mr. natalie's request to combine two of the losses against the administration saying it's a question of you whether you have the right to subpoena administration official, it is different from whether or not you get the right to locate grand jury information. these are the kind of sensible points we need to see more judges making. >> all right, kyle? >> a great piece of americana. come down see bernie sanders talking about socialism. but for the 1200 pound boar, statue big bird made entirely out of -- my favorite for the competition to bake the ugliest cake. >> he knows from experience,
folks! alisha. >> is a miss to democrats for years ignored lead poisoning in the water. they are finally shamed into delivering bottled water. what do you know? the bottled water was expired. and they are now limited trump administration for providing with more money. >> all right, james? >> this is a mr. presidential candidate elizabeth warren. this is the most controversial conversation a contract but lately he's playing better he's hitting really well and this week forbes magazine reported that miss warren and her husband amassed a fortune of $12 million or more working at a tax exempt, largely tax-exempt nonprofit so-called institution called harvard university. she talks about college
affordability. they charge $99,000 a year to students. >> all right, thank you all. that is it for this week's show. thank you to my panel and then all of you watching. i am paul gigot, we hope to see you here next week. >> an ancestor they knew nothing about... >> i went through 50-some-odd years of my life and had no clue. >> an inheritance they can hardly believe... >> what was your reaction as you opened those first boxes? >> it was mind-blowing. >> why does andrew green have george washington's will? >> bare-knuckle politics, cold-blooded murder, a legacy all but snuffed out... >> this was a cloud of suspicion of having lived a double life. >> what did they do? >> what are the chances that those boxes would've just been trashed? >> very good chance of that. >> what would you do? >> well, it drove me crazy. >> how 'bout 6,000? >> and what's it all worth? >> you think you'll ever get another auction with a story like this? >> no, i kinda doubt it.