tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business September 17, 2019 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
will be back in the chair. you don't want me for a fed decision. i get nervous. anything could happen. i see you at 4:00 with melissa for "after the bell." the marketed turned up for charles payne but down a few points. a lot of headlines for saudi arabia. charles, overto you. charles: the cp effect continues now, connell. see you at 4:00. breaking at this moment it has been a summer of magnificent moves. wild gyrations, it feels odd, eerie to have a calm before the storm but these are the days that you have to prepare. so we are handicapping the fed's meeting, china trade talks, that amazing economic data out today. also senator warren drawing tens of thousands to a recent campaign rally and picking up a huge endorsement. it is starting to look like trump versus warren 2020. your thoughts on that. a seventh person dies from suspected vaping related illness. what federal agencies are doing
to combat health risks of e-cigarettes. the big question, should they be out loud completely? that and much more on making money. ♪ charles: didn't take long, folks, look at your screen. where's connell? now the consensus is the fed will cut interest rates by quarter of a person. maybe two more rate cuts this year. don't forget about trade talks with china. they're ramping up. more positive tone. speak of positive, economic data has been coming in fairly strong. a lot to discuss. so let's bring in wells fargo security rate strategist zachary griffith, bellpointe chief market strategist, david nelson. sarge 986 he is president and in. sarge, good to have you in studio. i like what is going on here,
that not headline stuff but the economic data, industrial production, huge. by the way china's industrial production at 17 1/2-year low. ours came in 200% better than anticipated. homebuilder confidence, best level of the year. is it too good going into tomorrow's fed meeting? >> i think yes, it is very positive. i think cpi is a little bit worrisome to me. as a guy who thinks the fed should cut by 25 basis points tomorrow. i'm worried that headline inflation may catch up to core inflation now that we have a pop in oil prices. we don't know where chinese negotiations will go. if they go anywhere, we'll get enough batch of tariffs. charles: as long as it is calm and quiet. we endured a year-and-a-half of china tariffs. it has not hurt our economy, what hurts more, david, the tweets, change in direction, panic comes along with that.
but the actual economic impact has been somewhat muted. >> so far so good. consumer is large part of that. despite the fact that industrial data is mixes throughout the year. a lot of policies issues i disagree with jay powell. we don't live in a vacuum. central banks, negative rates, got germany. the entire yield curve is underwater. not surprising money pours into the united states driving yields down. the president boxed himself into a corner. almost made it impossible for the fed to do anything but an incremental cut. charles: you're the fed expert. you run a whole department at wells fargo trying to figure out what the heck will happen with these rates. what is going to happen? >> we're calling for 25 basis point rate cut. we think that is all but a done deal at this point. we think how chairman powell
will position the message going forward, we don't see too much change from here. back in july he got caught up -- charles: what you say you don't see too much change, i don't know what the powell doctrine is, zach, to be quite frank with you. i'm not worried about the cut. i'm more concerned about the q&a, he starts to feel like taking on personal animosity with president trump, the first question last time i thought sank the market. once he is transitory, low inflation is transitory, then, one time he is not not really sure. we're not getting a clear message what the powell doctrine is. >> last time he spooked the markets. as we go forward i think we'll step away from that. they highlighted these are insurance rate cuts. they will act to we think future rate cuts, another one in q4 and one in first quarter 2020.
charles: when all said and done we'll see over next several fed meetings. >> how about this? jay powell calls in sick. no dot plot. no press conference. cut 25 basis point, drop the mic. can't hurt us that way. charles: especially if we got rid of the.plot. seems like the wall street is facing for the fed to say one thing. there was confusion. we had two official dissenters. we have fed governors that don't agree with policy. jay powell likes consensus thinking. we want federal reserve to take over. >> i want consensus, as military guy, so are you. charles: military guy, when the highest ranking officer stepped in the room he or she was in charge! >> it says, sarge, what should i
do? i like that. other sergeants have input. that is how you come to a better decision. >> during the next week you will see a parade of fed heads walk out on shows like this, walking out whatever comes tomorrow. they will be talking their own book. charles: with respect to what happened overnight, i don't want to get wonky about this, there was a mini-crisis, a lot of people say it could impact the federal reserve. maybe their balance sheet could be larger. help us with this, zach. >> you saw repo rates take off. two big things we saw driving this, corporate tax payments at september 15th tax deadline, while at the same time net treasury issuance in the form of coupons was above 50 billion on monday of this week. those two factors, particular timing of the two, caused a big gyration in markets. the fed had to step in today, and do this operation to try to calm the markets.
the big thing we think impact it may have on tomorrow, they may look at cutting ioer rate in response to all of this as more -- >> there will be a question tomorrow, one of the first questions asked at the podium tomorrow. charles: you don't seem nervous. are you nervous, a, the fed may no longer, this could be a moot conversation if the fed has no longer control over where rates go? short term or long term. >> over the next couple days we don't see some of the same pressures, again, quarterly tax deadlines come once a quarter. this big settlement was mid-month. two settlements of treasurys per month. big thing next couple weeks or couple days they will not issue as much bills. that will take a little bit of pressure off the market in the front end. charles: any notion expanding the balance because of this? maybe this could be a excuse to do this? president trump wants quantitative easing. >> we're not calling for quantitative easing. charles: mario draghi said quantity quantity is a good thing. he said negative interest rates was spectacular. that was heck of a press
conference he had. he seemed to be pretty thrilled with himself. not exactly happy when it came to fiscal policy. >> that will collapse our yield curve in november. >> 3.8 trillion is enough to handle this. we think it is. we don't expect them to start qe. if you look at economy in u.s. it is faring much better. >> i think first term coincidence. it all came together at once. >> asian markets were closed yesterday. don't forget that. charles: my two market guys, have you changed positioning for this? markets reacted negative to last couple times powell spoken, he said something wall street didn't like or he confused the heck out of wall street and scared the heck out of wall street. how are you positioning for tomorrow? >> i'm cautious around jerome powell, i don't think he speaks for markets. i'm going at a high cash level. i trying to take advantage of the rotation. i gone back into a lot of names
gotten out of a week or two ago. a lot of -- charles: momentum games you're getting in. >> not full positions but i'm exposed. >> my fear is not the cut. the rhetoric that follows and press conference that follows, but i'm not changing my standpoint at this point. i still have the same positions as yesterday. charles: thank you very much, zachary, david, steven, sarge. please join us for special fed coverage. it starts with the decision right at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. we'll hear from chairman powell himself. that is at 2:30. we'll break it down with all-star expert analysis. you do not want to miss that. massive general mothers strike, union and company seemed to be far apart, sparking a fight between the white house and "politico" after a report that white house officials were getting involved in talks. grady trimble is live with more. grady. reporter: charles, the headline of that article white house
intervenes in general motors strike. the article says the white house was effectively trying to end the strike with an agreement and part of that agreement according to this article would reopen a plant in lordstown, ohio, that gm shut down earlier this year. the effort would put the white house on the side of united auto workers union and could boost the president's re-election chances next year in michigan and ohio but all three sides involved in this saying that is simply not true. this statement from the white house. this story is false. the trump administration including larry kudlow and peter navarro named in the powe lit call article are not involved with the negotiations between the uaw and gm. as president trump said we would like to see a fair and speedy conclusion to the talks. gm was short in its statement. the white house has no involvement in the negotiations. the uaw was the same. any white house intervention the
spokesperson says is news to the uaw. the port is watching as negotiations are ongoing. he chimed in yesterday. he didn't pick a side. he suggested federal mediation or intervention is always possible. as for the status of those negotiations, charles, there is still no end in sight. charles: grady, thank you very much. of course we'll have much more on the market as we do look ahead to the federal reserve tomorrow. plus investors reacting to the latest update on oil out put. president trump seemed to back away from the lock and loaded statement. so stay with us. we'll be right back. tv announcer: it's just as powerful as the lexus rx... as many safety features as the rx, the new... the lexus rx has met its match. if they're talking about you... you must be doing something right. experience the style, craftsmanship, and technology that have made the rx
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charles: folks take a look at oil prices right now. they're down nearly 5%. yesterday they spiked more than 14%. as president trump says iran appears to be responsible for the saudi oil field attack. he also seems to be backtracking on initial aggressive idea of being locked and loaded. he is indicating he would like to avoid war. what should be done about the oil field attacks and should we, america, lead the charge? i want to bring in hudson institute senior fellow rebecca heinrichs. we're in something of a quandary in a sense, the provocative actions from iran keep getting more and more belligerent, more bold and more dangerous. by the same token i'm not sure there is appetite in this country, maybe not even in the white house for us to lead any military actions on this particular attack? >> i think that's right, charles. i also think that the overall strategy from the trump administration towards iran is working. and what i mean by that is, obviously pulled out of the iran
deal which was a terrible deal by the obama administration and now we're drying up a lot of iran's resources, cutting them off from the rest of the world economy by heavy sanctions. we're doing this with a goal to get them to stop their maligned behavior, stop their support for terrorism, stop littering the middle east with missiles and weapons and come back to the table to negotiate with the united states a better deal on the nuclear program. what we're seeing iran is lashing out, because the u.s. efforts are squeezing their economy which is the goal. charles: they are lashing out, no doubt about it, but you say what can they do? this was a pretty impressive attack. again, i'm completely shocked that saudi arabia was caught this flat-footed. and moreover what should they do? they are are our key ally in the region along with israel. what should they tell american citizens if we have to get in a fight with them it is worth it?
>> that's a great question. one of the lessons we should take to see that missiles, crews missiles, we're still learning what kind of weapons used, uavs, most likely cruise missiles, what kind of damage they can do, if they don't have proper air defenses or missile defenses protecting those things abroad to the united states, our troops deployed, our military bases, our carriers, then we are out there sitting ducks too. it is stunning to see the damage that was done to such a critical oil refinery facility of the saudis and they could let something like this happen especially considering that the united states continues to sell missile defenses, other kinds of weapons to the saudis. we do this to protect themselves, and offer a retall tear response if they need to if they decide in their interest. charles: president trump landed in california moments ago he was speaking off record, off camera, he says he doesn't think we need
to release strategic petroleum reserves in the wake of this bombing. he would be willing to if need be. the president is rolling out -- ruling out a meeting with rouhani, iran's president who he thinks is responsible for the attack. president trump preferred not to meet at this point although he made these overtures. at some point, if there is ever going to be some resolution here, these two leaders probably will have to meet, right? >> they might. although i think that probably the supreme leader is the ultimate decisionmaker in iran, not rouhani. i think that it is important that the president is right, that it doesn't look as though he is in any way conceding or rewarding the iran regime by meeting with them right on the heels of this action. the iranians are going to continue to lash out in different ways. they're trying to get the united states cry uncle what do you want?
can we relief sanctions? what can we give you to stop doing this? that would be a mistake. we should the be baited into relieving sanctions or rewarding this behavior or doing something we would regret, further entertaining -- entangling ourselves in the middle east. charles: we keep not taking the bait despite the malicious acts and getting more and more dangerous. on saturday, pompeo put out a tweet. he discussed our allies. i'm not sure what the count is so far, feels like we don't ever hear from our allies no matter how belligerent these attacks are. how can we rely on them? i don't know any of them came out to condemn actions? >> there is intelligence being swapped. there is a lot of behind the scenes happening with diplomats. we're trying to persuade our allies to convince them, by showing them intelligence, why we believe it was iran, not even
proxies, not the houthi rebels, that we actually think it came from iran. we need to do the hard diplomatic heavy lifting. what iranians want to do, they want to further splinter or alliances. they want to isolate the united states as we work to isolate them. if we keep sanctions together with our arab allies. have the u.a.e. with us, not relax sanctions and europeans with us, that will have the united states with much more success as we try to compel the regime to stop the maligned behavior and come to the negotiating table in good faith. charles: rebecca, thank you very much. always appreciate it. we have additional breaking news. president trump also spoke with china about the conversation with reporters on air force one saying i think there will be a deal soon, maybe before the election. in that quote, it will be greatest deal ever made and china knows that. also coming up elizabeth warren is riding a wave and got a major
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>> we're working night and day to deliver a future of limitless opportunities for our nation's hispanic-american citizens including millions and millions of extraordinary mexican-americans who enrich our society. strengthen our country, serve in our military and contribute immensely to our shared american family and i just want to tell you that mexico is doing a great job for us on the border. charles: president trump trying to turn new mexico red, to start
of hispanic heritage month by also touting his economic record. it can be argued that hispanics have benefited the most during the president's presidency, but there are other issues. in fact keeping his approval rating around 25%. can he win new mexico and garner greater hispanic support? we have anna paulino luna. thanks for joining us. >> hey, charles, how are you doing? charles: i'm doing great. in spite of the fact that democrats won six out out of the last seven presidential elections in new mexico, hillary clinton got less than 50%. dramatically lower than president obama, particularly his first time around. feels like there is some sort of a trend going on. couple that with the amazing economic progress that the hispanic community are making. is it so farfetched that president trump can win
new mexico. >> no. absolutely what we're seeing is a huge increase in the amount of republican registered hispanic voters in new mexico. really across the entire southwest. what they're trying to do is make hispanic-americans, specifically mexican-americans, who feel like they're only ones, they bully us, censor us online. we're progod, pro-life, pro-country and we love this president. their biggest nightmare is possibly they could lose new mexico and lose states like texas. it will be a win. it will be a landslide. mark my words, he will kick my butt. charles: weigh do keep these. we'll mark your words one way or the other. 60% of the his pain nicks in -- hispanics in new mexico are of mexican origin. that will listen, coming down the escalator, comments president trump made who was being sent over here from mexico, some of the subsequent things that the democrats used to suggest that president trump
is a racist. those aren't going to go away. will a stronger economy be enough to overcome that sort of line of reasoning or thinking? >> i think that is part of it, but remind you president trump announced he will host some of the largest conservative hispanic organizations in the country, rnha, we have all been invited to attend the white house on september 27th. he is going directly to the community. he is one of the first presidents since george bush, senior, to do so. he is active in the hispanic outreach. what the dnc is doing to try to pit them, pin us against the president. we're waking up. they're trying to hold social media. they're trying to hold the news. they will not do it. too many of us speaking out. too many independent activists we want this president and we want this country to succeed. charles: if you could, you're going to be at the white house soon. what would you suggest to president trump with at least respect to messaging?
4.2% unemployment rate for hispanics. labor force participation up 77.6%. these stats go on and on and on. they're absolutely remarkable so what about the messaging that president trump in your mind should take away from this, maybe help this happen for you. >> i think what he should do, again allow to us tell our stories, really help to promote our platforms. a lot of our activists are being censored heavily by big tech. that is how we communicate with one another. the more he starts to engage with us, the more he starts to retweet us, put our content information out there. that will allow us to have direct connection with the people with him as well. it will help his chances of winning election in 2020. charles: this is the first time we've been on since you added luna to the name. congratulations, anna. >> thank you, talk soon. charles: big tech the focus once again on capitol hill as a
senate hearing featuring the fcc chairman is beginning any moment. we'll go live to capitol hill on that. should joe biden be worried about warren? she is rising in polls, bringing in gargantuan crowds, racking up endorsements. she is now the progressive many people see to beat. our panel weighs in after the break. ♪ i get it all the time. "have you lost weight?" of course i have- ever since i started renting from national. because national lets me lose the wait at the counter... ...and choose any car in the aisle. and i don't wait when i return, thanks to drop & go. at national, i can lose the wait...and keep it off. looking good, patrick. i know. (vo) go national. go like a pro. this is the family who wanted to connect...
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♪ charles: elizabeth warren positioning herself as the progressive to beat. she is drawing huge crowds including last night in new york city where the audience topped 20,000 people. also she picked up a major endorsement, from the working families party which was a major backer of bernie back in 2016. she is climbing in most polls. in fact, look at this chart. the only one to go up over the last six months here, yes, elizabeth warren has momentum. i want to bring in our liberal panel to discuss. liberal commentator, danielle mcglocklin. former aide to president george w. bush. i see you have your warren red. >> i thought it was going to work. charles: hard to say that elizabeth warren doesn't have momentum. biden is number one and sort of drifting, stuck at a number. she has momentum. as political expert you know
momentum is everything. >> certainly. we see the numbers of biden. we see his lead is chipped away. biden, warren's rise is partly fueled by college educated voters. let's be honest. she needs to make sure she has good african-american support which is the heart and soul of the primary. she needs to win the middle. she is far, far left. democrats worst nightmare nominating so one too far left to the middle of 9 country and giving trump another term. charles: republicans worst nightmare was in 2016, right was the president trump. at least the establishment. sometimes people determine what the party is going to be, not the party elders and maybe democrats want their party to be socialist party? >> could be but i think it's a losing strategy, especially when our economy is doing so well. people on all elves levels of income are doing well. woman have boost to salaries and terrific employment numbers throughout the united states. running against the economy.
trying to control mortgage of the economy is not what the american people are looking for. charles: although, we have a major strike going on right now. general motors which the management made this amazing offer in my mind, 8,000-dollar bonus, 5400 jobs. the ceo made 281 times the average worker in general motors. that is echoing the elizabeth warren story. the economy is doing good but the working people of america are getting big enough slice of it. >> that is certainly an aoc talking point and elizabeth warren. to your point fighting on the economy is problematic especially at this point now. charles: any democratic candidate will make an economic argument, what would it be? >> i think the other argument not on economics is saying that the system is rigged. she just put out this incredibly broad anti-corruption policy draining of the swamp very clearly not happened. she recovered $12 billion. i'm not a talk head for her.
she recovered $12 billion starting at consumer financial protection bureau in in the obaa administration. she has street cred in this space. she is convincing voters that she is populist that donald trump is not. >> nothing more swampy on constitution todayday holding hearings in the house to impeach a sitting elected president and a confirmed justice of the supreme court. you can't hate donald trump out of office. you have to beat him at the ballot box. charles: if the teleprompter wasn't behind you i would say you just read it because we'll segue off of that, off to the next topic. president trump hammering "new york times" for shaky reporting on brett kavanaugh and these accusations that is the "new york times" is at the lowest point in the long and storied history. not only losing a lot of money but journalistic disaster,
laughed at in the most liberal of enclaves, it has become a very sad joke all around the world. we're talking about this debacle. it is one thing that if it was "the new york times" story but elizabeth warren, kamala harris, leaped all over it, demanding impeachment again of a supreme court justice who went through perhaps the most trying confirmation period, process ever. you know, is that really a winning strategy for 2020? >> well i think the broader point i think "the new york times" reporting is extremely problematic. i will not sit here and defend it but the other point is that we were promised an investigation and it is very clear from the reporting in this book -- charles: you want the democratic nominee to harp on this particular topic? you have folks out there like dick durbin, jerry nadler, nadler says leave it alone! >> i agree that is strategically. about unconstitutional to impeach.
that is the mechanism in the constitution. >> mechanism by which you use the constitution for political purpose. that is what i'm saying. >> fair point taken. i do agree you can't great be hate a president outof the office. you have to vote a president out of office there is mechanism people can do use. charles: democrats leap instantly on any negative trump story without vetting it i think they continue to shoot themselves in the foot. it looks like an act of desperation. you're not committed to any democratic candidate and putting you down as trump, right? >> trump all the way. charles: great conversation. coming up more fox business exclusive interview with apple ceo jeff williams including his thoughts on tariffs. antitrust issues being discussed on capitol hill at this very hour. we're live with more reaction next. >> we believe that free trade helps everybody involved and so
we're optimistic there will be a resolution on that situation. this is the age of expression. everyone has something to say. but in a world full of talking, shouldn't somebody be listening? so. let's talk. we are edward jones. with one financial advisor per office, we're built for hearing what's important to you. one to one. edward jones. it's time for investing to feel individual.
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charles: is it time to break up big tech? that is what is on the minds of senators locked in an antitrust hearing on capitol hill right now. that is where we'll find edward lawrence live with the story. edward? reporter: senators here tackling the issue of antitrust. they're talking to antitrust regulators, the people watching and fining these big tech firms when they make a mistake. on the witness list ftc chairman, joseph simmons. he is there, will answer questions how big is too big in his mind related to this. how his agency is going after abuses by big tech companies. the ftc levied a record fine on facebook of $5 billion, that the company deceived users when sharing data. the head of the department of justice antitrust division will
be on the witness stand today. three of senators on this committee vying for the democratic nomination for president. likely to be a lively debate. talking about privacy issues related to that. in an exclusive interview with apple coo he talks about privacy issues and how apple cherishes those. listen. >> we believe privacy a fundamental human right and we develop all of our products and services with that in mind. the reality is the data on you belongs to you, and you should decide who you share it with, and how it is going to be used period and. this is something we feel strongly about and we work really, really hard. reporter: as this is happening amazon is hiring seven miles away from here, from the u.s. capitol, a sea of people leaving resume's for jobs at one of amazon's coheadquarters in crystal city, virginia.
amazon says the jobs pay an average of $150,000 a year. those people not worried about antitrust investigations but the administration is. senators will ask and hear how this is the beginning stages of the antitrust investigation looking into those companies like google, apple, facebook and amazon. charles? charles: thank thank you, edwary much. we have a "fox business alert" for you right now. things are going from bad to worse at wework. the office sharing company pushing back the ipo possibly indefinitely. remember they were recently valued at $47 billion. the company appears to be struggling to gain any investor enthusiasm and has consistently had to lower the valuation, most recently around $10 billion. stocks are treading water trying to get back of some of yesterday's losses. oil closing down after skyrocketing after yesterday's attack in saudi arabia. we're all over the markets. more is coming up. also next, a 7th person has
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charles: a seventh person is now dead from a vaping-related illness. this death causing the cdc to step you will investigating the cigarettes and juul sales being halted a week after initial, releasing them there in china. joining me to discuss family physician, rowan school of osteopathic medicine, dr. jennifer caudill. thanks for joining us. the cdc is activating a
emergency operations center to deal with this. we have had a seventh person dead from this. maybe 400 cases in 30 some odd states. just how bad is this crisis right now? >> i think it is really bad, actually. what makes it so bad, we actually don't entirely know what the cause is, and why this is happening. we're talking about cases of acute lung injury, that approximately 180 people have come down with and seven people have died from. this is where people who have reportedly been vaping get coughs, shortness of breath, chest pain, nausea. they come down with a severe lung illness, sometimes requiring the hospital and vent tate losser. some people have died. the problem here, why this emergency task force is so important. the problem we don't actually know why this is happening. we don't know if it is the the e-cigarette cartridges, we don't know if it is the solution, we
don't know what it is. it is scary. charles: it is scary. vapeing relatively new has been around long enough it seems odd this is happening right now. folks in the industry are saying that it is lower end products. people injecting certain substances in their devices themselves and that there should not be an overreaction? >> couple things to the points. you make really good points. to clarify we do know most of the cases who have come down with the illness reported vaping thc, some form of thc. so the concern by the fda and the cdc is, is that thc vaping products purchased on the street may be playing a role. what might be people are purchasing and composition of that liquid with thc, they're finding vitamin e acetate or other solutions may be
contributing to the lung problems you're seeing. to your point, we had vaping a long time, why are we seeing the problem now? i always argued vaping should be more regulated than it is. we had vaping for a while. the truth is it is not regulated by the fda. with or without the thc, they have solutions and chemicals we don't know the longer term effects of. so two things but they are important. charles: a ballot initiative in san francisco where they have a ban on all e-cigarettes, if this goes through they're allowed to ban all e-cigarettes, many are wondering if other cities and states will take that up? by the way michigan has a new law if a person is caught with four or more flavored products they're considered a dealer of sorts. should we talking about outlawing the product? >> we should talk about all
aspects of this. just to clarify in california, my understanding yes they would be banned until the particular product or store shows that vaping product is fda approved. my understanding in california they need to be approved, fda approved and regulated before they can go back on the market. that is what the ban is about. what we're talking about michigan, we're talking about flavored vaping products. to be honest with you i agree of idea banning flavored vaping products except those with tobacco flavor. the reason why -- charles: even for adults? >> banned for anyone. i will tell you why. the people most affected by those flavors are not the adults. it is kids. kids are picking up flavored products and they're starting to vape. remember, charles, these kids have not been smoking. they're not trying to quit smoking. they're picking it up trying what bubble gum and mango is tasting like. the flavors may entice a whole group of kids to take in
nicotine when they wouldn't have otherwise. charles: everyone agrees about the controversy, the crisis, rather, the controversy comes in exactly how to handle it. doctor, thank you very much for your expertise. always appreciate it. >> thank you. >> we're heading into the final hour of trading. it's a calm day. but you can feel the anxiety beneath the surface. we'll set you up, it could be a last hour of wild trading so don't go away. ♪ tv announcer: it's just as powerful as the lexus rx...
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because national lets me lose the wait at the counter... ...and choose any car in the aisle. and i don't wait when i return, thanks to drop & go. at national, i can lose the wait...and keep it off. looking good, patrick. i know. (vo) go national. go like a pro. should always be working harder. that's why your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. charles: so the market's relatively flat, but you can feel the anxiety the, all eyes tomorrow on the federal reserve and that rate cut decision. joining us now to discuss, todd horowitz. todd, the last time you were on you made a comment as we were handing the show off to liz
claman that you were looking for a big move. it could be either up or down, but you had the sense that we're setting up for a big, big move. what determines that, and are you feeling which direction? >> what's up, charles? you know, yeah, again, i think if there's a big move, it's going to be to the downside. doesn't mean we're not going to continue to rally, but i think we've now shown that the market rally's going to be dull and inconsistent. of course, tomorrow's announcement could push us higher, but i think the next real big move, and what happens is when markets get so tightly wound, which is extremely tight, even with the run to new highs, it's been a little bit, a little bit. so when we get these tight ranges that don't make sense and don't move, eventually you get a very big move out of that. and i think that's what you're going to see out of this market. when it's ready to move; i think it's going to be extremely big, and i'm talking 5, 6, 7% in either direction.
but if i were to guess, to downside even if we grind higher for another 3, 4% from here. charles: are you concerned that wall street is expecting too much from the federal reserve? >> yes, i am. i think originally they priced in 50 basis points, i think now it's closer to 25. however, if the fed follows their mandate which is data-dependent, then they really have no business cutting at all. the data's been very good, i think you would agree with that. however, president trump happens to be right as well because we're borrowing that money and because the world rates are at negative, we could go significantly lower and just lower the interest rate that we're paying, actually. charles: one of the -- we were showing some retail stocks while you were speaking because one of the themes of the market was a rotation into the beaten-down names and retail benefited from that, they made a 16% rally in two weeks, but they're getting hammered right now. do you think the rotation trade
is off, and if so, where should people be looking in case we grind higher? >> well, i think you want to look to the stalwarts right now. certainly, as you know, i'm always 100% invested about being hedged in the ec questionty market -- equity market. but you want to look for the old stalwarts, the at&ts of the world, more of the conservative variety as we continue to peak and go higher. again, could we go much higher? sure. but i think that from here i wouldn't want to be in too much of a high risk environment, you know, like the rokus of the world that just dropped $30 in two days. again, i think you have to be very careful with risk at these levels, so i'd be looking at verizon, at&t, some of the old standbys that are relatively safe. they do pay solid dividends and allow you to participate in the market continues, but they don't destroy you if the market goes down. charles: a lot of times these
names that have been around for a hundred years, will probably be around another hundred, for the most part, not a bad place to hide out. we popped initially, now we're down 20 as we hand it over to liz claman. liz: i'll take the cp effect. yeah, you got it going there. thank you so much, charles. folks, we do have geopolitical tensions as we head into the final hour of trade. even president trump promising in just the last hour that a trade deal with china could come, quote, before the 2020 election or one day after the election is not sending the markets to the moon. stocks are still kind of hovering around ground level as we watch a reversal of fortunes in the oil patch right now. the saudi energy minister claims that as bad as those fires looked on saturday night, the entire country's oil operations will return to full production levels by the end of this month. that's just two weeks, right?