tv Your World With Neil Cavuto FOX News April 24, 2012 1:00pm-2:00pm PDT
neil cavuto housing taking another big hit. is the president ready to take another big hit? welcome, everyone, i am neil cavuto and maybe it is not the economy, stupid. it's stupid housing because it continues to look like a stupid investment. hope springs eternal but so far this spring, friends, home prices have not. slammed again there time diving 3.5 percent in 20 of the largest cities, and now at levels we have not seen in nearly a decade. prices in nine of the cities hitting post bubble lows as unemployment stays high. now to be fair, home prices have been falling well before this president took office, but, under his watch, the average price of an existing home has gone from $172,000 in 2009 to
$158,000 in the first three months of this year and with lending still high, that big by gangs that americans relied on for everything from cash to college or the quick get away, that has been taken away making this the first election in memory where the value of that piggy bank is less than it was not last presidential election. the political fallout in a moment. the financial fallout right now. and now, this is a bad fallout. what are we looking at buddy? >> well, very simple. i call it the wealth effect it the housing prices continue to go lower, people not as much as in 2005 but they still attach their wealth to their housing, and i got news, there will be a 10-year effect and there are a few more years to go and we will continue to sink further which i think does not look good for the election for the incumbent.
>>neil: but when we talk about the housing prices post bubble and ten year lows you have had the decade of downdraft and you argue there is still more to go. >>guest: the last bear market in housing lasted 10 years, and this came off of the west bubble we have seen in history in housing, with the most inventory ever. and i keep hearing, now, about bottoms and bottoms and bottoms, but we are not near the bottom. the other part, we hear inventories coming down but that is mostly bought by investors who will sell anyhow and with so many foreclosures still out there, and so much inventory still out there i still think there is a way to go and i hope as far as the down side in price, that the worst is close to over but i'm not sure about that. a long way to go as far as a bear market. depending on the realtor you talk to, they say the inventory is a little bit more manageable now, in other words, the number
of unsold homes out there, has shrunks but it is still very high and you have to work that off, and a lot of these have been addition stressed sells further tanking prices right? >>guest: 20 percent of the sales in february were foreclosures. that's super low prices, that keeps prices down, especially in the areas. i understand where real stores say that, inventory is manage am and that is true in certain areas phoenix, inventories have come down, but prices are down, 50 percent to 60 percent, so there is a definitive tradeoff there, on that situation. so, i'm just not there yet, i think there are great buys out there on the whole but i think as far as the over all housing market, we will be hacking around bottom for a few more years if not lower and in some areas, a lot lower. >>neil: i hope you are wrong. but you have been right on so much else. thank you.
talk about the epicenter of the housing free fall and now the political hit and real clear politics on just how important the housing market issue will be. you and i have discussed this but it is a new variable in the campaign cycle, we have always had it's the job, stupid, the overall economic numbers, but this would be the first period, four years over four years where the value of people's homes at least since the great depression, is lower than it was from the prior and i don't think that is factored in. >> you are right. it will be about the economy and housing is a big part of the economy and it is a big part as gary mentioned of him's wealth, and they see their prices go down, and from a psychology perspective, this is why two thirds of americans do not think that the country is moving in the right direction and clearly obama's achilles' heel in november will be the economy. and if people do not thing he is
managing the economy, they are looking at price of gas and the equity if their home going down, they may want to make a change. >> leak you say a lot of people have equated their home with their sense of value and worth, and you could be running up a lot of bills not too long ago, and you always had the fall back of the equity in your home, it was the cash dispenser and that is long gone but it does affect people's psyche and the question is whether they take that outen the president, if other numbers are improving. what do you think? >>guest: we will have to say. i have said this before. there is a lot of focus on the particular numbers. unemployment is 8.2 percent and if it gets to 7.9 percent, somehow that is good. the actual number of jobs created, that is not what it is about. it is about how people feel about the economy and this is an area, like gas prices when you fill up the car or truck each week you feel that hit.
they are look at that along with the value of the fork -- value of their 401(k). >>neil: if we are to believe the new survey, the housing gods, they follow this across the country all the key regions and it continues to go down, housingen like some other key economic numbers and g.d.p., is not off the lows, it is getting more low. and that is a trend that is not the administration's friend. how does that play out when the biggest sense of our wealth is making us poor? >>guest: well, it will be a real drag for the president. and professor shiller of the shiller index gave an interview to the "wall street journal" and said he thinks this will muddle along for the next few months if not years and it does not look like it will get better. the president proposed in the
state of the union that he would initiate a task force on helping people who are underwater on the mortgage and we have seen stories recently, it has been 90 days and there has been nothing done on it. they have not put forward the name of anyone to run the task force so the administration is dropping the ball in a critical area because as we have discussed this will be a an issue if november. >>neil: i look at a lot of the housing plans, and i am wondering, now, whether americans are just saying "stop." we have had various mortgage rework programs. we have had principle extension programs and the like. to little avail. maybe the better part of valor is to cease and deit is. maybe -- to cease and deitsist. >>guest: it would be more a political statement. the housing market is a mull dry faceted industry and it is unlikely the government can do
anything to move that market, right? and there is the flip side which is the blow back from people who are out there paying on their mortgages, why is someone else getting a break on theirs and i am not getting a break, so it may not be a political benefit for the president in the end. >>neil: great to see you, tom bevan. we will have a lot more with mitt romney tomorrow night and whether it makes sense, his first interview as he kicks off what he says will be the start of election campaign with the half dozen primaries that starts tonight and he is expected to win in all because rick santorum drops out and romney choreographs where he goes from here, exclusively on "your world," and now, in washington the senate rejected a g.o.p. attempt to overturn knew rules by the national labor relations board which would speed up union elections set to kick in on monday, and south dakota senator
was among 45 republicans pushing for the vote. senator, it didn't go your way, but, now, i am wondering, what is the workplace going to look, what do you feel it will look like on monday? >>guest: well, it will change a lot. obviously. this is, of course, this rule was put in blaze at the end the year, the fin am rule, but what we hoped to do was to prevent the national labor relations board from moving forward with the change. it crams into a ten-day period the time in which an employer would have to schedule a union election. right now the average is 38 days so imagine compressing the schedule like that you can hardly find a lawyer in ten kays to represent you. this is a radical change and very contrary to small businesses and their ability to create jobs and grow the economy. it will increase the cost of doing business in this country and i hoped that today we would be able to get the vote to reverse that but unfortunately
we got frye votes in the united states senate and we found out, again, how important it is at the ballot box that we win elections. >>neil: there is a contrary school of thought on this, senator, that unions should be careful what they wish for and get because speed may not be in their favor. in other words you cannot rush folks at a plant or factory or facility to unionize if they don't want to. >>guest: and maybe that will be, i hope it is the case, i hope employees will push back against this, but the reason the unions were so for it, if you look at history as any indication, when a union election occurs in 11 to 15 days the unions win 87 percent. when they occur in 36 to 42 days the number drops down to 58 percent, so, clearly, theyent withed to have this change, they think it will mean a lot more election victories but this, really, is a solution in search of a problem, because if you
look at the recent results of union elections in 2011 the unions won 71 percent up 3.5 percent over the previous year. and this is not a problem. this is something that big government and labor bosses have tried to put through. it will be harder for small businesses to deal with the cot of dealing with there and hadder to create jobs, in question. >>neil: that is why many unions fear romney, and he has promised to crackdown on this and you and other leaders in the nat -- senate have promised the same thing and pulling out all stops $400 million ad campaign at a minimum, to help the president and democrats to stay in pow we. this will get ugly? >>guest: it is. it is about power. it clearly is a push right now and you see this pervasive in the administration, we see it in lots of different agencies, the
nlrb is a good example, we were able to defeat one of their sears at the washington, dc circuit court recently but most of the things they are trying to jam through or designed to grow the power of the special interests that drive the president and his agenda here in washington, dc. and that's why i hope people across this country pay attention to the issues. be prepared. when the election comes in november of this year, be prepared to make sure we send a message we want policies in place that will make it less expensive and less difficult for small businesses to create jobs, not more difficult. not putting more burdens and more impediments and more barricades in the way of small business. that is what the regulation will do and will be the practical effect but the political effect is it increases and concentrates more power with the unions and it takes its away from employers and employees in the work place. >>neil: thank you, senator.
coming up. >> in america we don't quit. >>neil: the president making a push for students, right now, but what about the voting record back then in we will go back in time. rent kind of communications company. ♪ we link people and fortune 500 companies nationwide and around the world. and we will continue to free you to do more and focus on what matters.
>> we only fished paying off our student loans about eight years ago. >>neil: making a pitch to keep the student interest rates low, but then, senator obama, skipping two votes on the issue he is passionate about today. is that a problem for the president? my guest thinks so. so, what do you think? >>guest: well, it shows that president obama has lost support by 18 points among people who are graduating from college, cannot go out and get a job but they have a burdensome debt of
student loans. >>neil: where do you get the 18 points? >>guest: an article sites that they have dropped support by 18 points. >>neil: and you are including who? what age? >>guest: 19 to 30-year-olds. so that generally younger voting demographic. so you are losing support among the younger voters they are graduating from college and not getting a job and because they do not get a job so they cannot pay off the student loan debt so president obama, with the waning support among that age group, the campaigns are in swing states for the legislation and the succession to keep the interest rates low and back in 2007 he wasn't so interested in it because he wasn't in a heated election season and, so, it seemed like he is using students and offering them free stuff in order to keep his position in the white house. >>neil: do you think, and i guess he was running for president at that time, but do you think, he is more concerned
now, obviously he has had a drop off from the young but overwhelmingly, they still do support the president over any named republican challenger, romney being the latest and most likely, but, is he more worried about them not showing up at the polls, they may not vote for mitt romney but they may not vote, at all? >>guest: well, that is the poll, but the fact is, we are a long way from november and political time, and although romney supports extending the lower interest rate for student loan pay backs for another year, romney has a good amount time to show the younger voters the way that president obama has governed for the past three or four years hasn't really gotten them a job. his promise of everyone should go to college is not panning out. and this goes to the broader issue, the president has been saying we need to get to everyone to college but it is not forren. we need more manufacturing jobs but he is not pushing trade schools so students in general
need to approach college as, what i am getting for my return on investment with the $100,000 loan. what do i get from this? >>neil: you are right, you have to wonder, the college, it is not necessarily for everyone. what i always find interesting, whether romney is distinguishing himself enough from the president if he supports an extension of these low loan rates, he has said he wants education to be affordable and do what he can to make it a priority, doesn't he risk, then, sounding just as big government like as the president? >>guest: he does. but this is the difference. everyone wants affordable education, everyone wants whoever wants to go to college to be capable of going to college but romney has to distinguish himself in the way they go about it. he doesn't believe in more big government programs. and he should realize and teach these young people that it is through the free market and the reason why tuition is so high each year and why they need the
massive student loans is because the government is so heavy especially involved in thest loan marketplace so he had to distinguish himself, and we have different ways to go about it. what president obama has been doing is not working and what i will offer will. >>neil: the supreme court doesn't knock arizona's immigration law, senator schumer is ready to step in? the arizona senator saying what the arizona senator saying what the "chuck." from helping to revitalize a neighborhood in brooklyn... financing industries that are creating jobs in boston... providing funding for the expansion of a local business serving a diverse seattle community... and lending to ensure a north texas hospital continues to deliver quality care. because the more we can do in local neighborhoods and communities, the more we can help make opportunity possible.
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less than new york senator schumer is ready to step in. and kick the law out. a move that a republican state senator from arizona is here to talk about. that is year, chuck schumer of course who had a thing with the court being the final word, but on this matter, different, that if the court were to rule in your favor, schumer will try to derail that. >>guest: i don't buy it for a minute. i don't think chuck schumer has the guts to put that on the floor of the senate. there are 21 democrat seats up for grabs in the united states senate and ten in battle ground states, i dare chuck schumer to put that up for a vote on the floor. the republicans will sweep to victory because it is clear that americans overwhelmingly support arizona in the bill and this is
another democratic ploy by a democrat in a state that has in impact like we do here in arizona, with an open border that the federal government has failed to secure. schumer has nothing. and he doesn't even have the guts to put it up for a vote. >>neil: we did call chuck schumer's office and we heard something to the effect "are you kidding." no, kidding. but ours is one of the few microphones he did not venture to pass. >>guest: because he is a chicken. he has to face reality that this is all again a political ploy. >>neil: be that as it may what i wonder, senator, what happens here? say the court does find they have overstepped the bounds and goes too far, what will arizona do? >>guest: well, first i don't think that will happen. the supreme court has already ruled in arizona's favor involving employer sanction law where it says that arizona has the right to enforce the law in
its own state and protect its citizens and economy, and, the supreme court will, again, issue a similar ruling and it will be 5-3 vote and well be successful. if not, we will look at other ways to secure our border and we have passed the bill in the arizona state senate sponsored by state senator smith to help build our own fence here in airs because the federal government is not doing so so we will take any necessary to protect our citizens here in arizona from the fact that the federal government, and senators such as mr. schumer have refused to do their job to protect the citizens of this country by securing our border and ears ears -- arizona will secure et cetera border. >>neil: i will take that as a "no," for senator schumer's next fundraiser that you can't make it. and the mainstream media running will report that for the first time since the great depression it appears that more mexicans are leaving the united states than entering.
in other words they have had it. we don't have a problem. my guest ain't buying it, and she is not backing off of the issue, tea party person is here. you don't like what you are hearing? this is making the cake go down hard. >>guest: it is just a wedge issue for the president and, what isn't a wedge issue for the president? he could make kissing babies into a wedge issue. >>neil: it depends on the baby. >>guest: how much does that baby make? should i kiss that baby? >>neil: aren't you being cynical. >>guest: please. even if there are illegal immigrants learning the country for many in the republican base, it will remain an issue, it is not stopping here and the president is not beginning to be able to come out on this issue to claim success or any level of responsibility in saying we don't have to do anything further. >>neil: what if, and i don't buy the numbers either because
they are based on things in our economy that is slowed down and the mexicans that used to come here for something better, they have given up because, actually, things here are not much better. i don't boy that because i have been to mexico and they are a lot worse. so i don't buy that. but if the at is, or if we slowed the new illegal immigrants, we would still have 20-plus million who are already here illegally and then what do you do? >>guest: that becomes the issue and that is what people will judge the presidential candidates on and it will come up. dill come up in the debates. >>neil: what if the administration argues, well, the unemployment rate has been going down and jobs have been picking up so if this was such a drain on the system it has a funny way of showing that. >>guest: the president's policy is we will bankrupt the country and citizens or not to get rid of illegal immigrants? >>neil: he is saying, no, that
not happening. >>guest: the reason unemployment numbers are going down is because 700,000 dropped out of the workforce. >>neil: i don't like the pointing. >>guest: does that bother you. >>neil: it is like one of these, girlfriend ... >>guest: no, not pointing at you. now, let me put my finger up to remember where i was. >>neil: i am frightened. >>guest: you should be frightened. so, what i think, the reason the economy, the unemployment numbers picking up, people dropped out and one in seven of us is without a job. without any type of way to put food on the table because@:/$ president's policies the this immigration issue if he tries to own it will do what every issue is beginning to do, come back and bite his economic policies. and he is unleashed, the president of the united states, unherebied economic hell on americans. and every single thing he tries to take credit for, will compact to that particularly in the immigration. >>neil: but if the argument is
the economy is slowing this illegal immigration, in other words mexicans saying, well, it is actually bad here but not so great in the united states so we will stay here, so, the slow recovery is actually a boon to this problem. >>guest: well, like i said you will bankrupt the rest of america just to save the immigration population. what people will carry about on the immigration issue is a long term solution. rubio is coming out right now talking about working a compromise possibly with the dream act. >>neil: how do you feel about that? >>guest:ing a lot of tea party activists trust very much rubio. >>neil: not mom? -- romney. >>guest: when the president and his allies went after romney's wife it unified we we people behind romney. >>neil: you have had a problem. >>guest: i never had a problem with romney. i have argued, i have not had a
problem with romney. but there are policies he did which he has to answer for. >>neil: from the tea party point of view on romney wanting to continue the low interest rate loans like the president does for another year, for college graduates, what do you make of that? >>guest: i just think they have to be honest with college graduates. this is not beginning to save you. this is not beginning to -- going to help you. romney needs to say that. >>neil: he is not. >>guest: it will come time and again from the people who he needs to get elected. people may want to ignore the tea party or the base but you need to inspire them if you want them out there. no one else will do it. >>neil: have a great birthday. started with a private citizen
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a company we follow closely because these are a technology barometer and some have expanded that to include an economic barometer posting $12.30 profit a share on revenue north of $39 billion. both beating the estimates out there and this stock has lost 12 percent from high as couple of weeks ago but ina= after hours trading today, because it was down today, it has surged about 6 percent on this news. so, having those losses just minutes from the report, this appears to be a much better-than-expected report on an people numbers and we will continue crunching and that should be a tonic for folks worried about technology. but, to this. sweet news from hershey profits up 24 percent. good, right? here is where it is bittersweet for you. they are hiking prices to offset
costs and it is not alone. coca-cola, we have seen mcdonald's, all doing the same. and market watcher says it will not stop here. they are all facing the same commodity run up crisis. right? and they are all passing it along? >>guest: that is right. printing money in the basement gets ink on your pants, so, you have a fed that has done the purchasing power of the dollar goes down and hersheys has to go out and their cost of goods for sugar goes up and guess whose price goes up? >>neil: but mcdonald's is doing great. is there a point where people say, no, no, no, i will skip on the double quarter pound. >>guest: absolutely. you are seeing them not do that
in the mcdonald's and hershey's world because it is inexpensive to the masses. but when you move upscale to the best buys of the world, or the staples of the world, people are going to pass on those as prices increase. >>neil: so, when it comes to chocolate that could be a nickel a kiss and suddenly it can go up to ten cents, it is still impulse change, right? >>guest: correct. >>neil: very different if it is a flat screen. >>guest: yes, different for costco and a flat screen tv, people will pass. >>neil: are you worried? what are you worried about? >>guest: to your point about gasoline prices rising, right? you are seeing people are going to travel less outside the area during the summertime than historyally based on the fact gasoline prices and airline prices have again up significantly. inflation here. it is real.
you are purchasing power, your dollar, now, is worth, you will is to work doubly as hard to by the same can of coca-cola that you did as time goes on. >>neil: but everyone says in the aggregate the food items notwithstanding, inflation is not a problem and house prices are going south, computer and technology equipment, not moving price wise, so, net, net, net, no problem? >>guest: i disagree. what you will see is especially in the coming months, neil, there is talk of quantitative easing number three, or another round of some sort of money supply going into the system. it will be very interesting what our monetary authorities do in a november election cycle that is taking place and whether they issue more money into the marketplace. as a result, i think you are going to see prices continue to go up in all the areas just mentioned. >>neil: okay, thank you very much, he is a genius he talks
about quantitative easing when the fed comes in and flooding the system with cash and that art officially keeps the prices low. a lot of folks worried about that. inflation worries to stay? we will ask former c.e.o. and commerce secretary who knows about what happened to a cereal eyeant when that genie is out of the bottle. >> with pennsylvania voters headed to the polls, when will rick santorum become up the frontrunner? buying this juicer online was unbelievable. what a bargain! [ female announcer ] sometimes a good deal . in this lab demo, one sheet of new bounty leaves this surface cleaner than two sheets of the leading ordinary brand.
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larry, he didn't even mention romney's name. i don't know what that means. i will ask romney tomorrow. but why is it so important he has to say something now? >>guest: well, look, you want to wind up the primary process and, obviously, a lot of the santorum voters were not crazy about romney so they gaffe -- gravitated to santorum so it would help romney to consolidate republican support to get the pleasing from rick santorum. he will get it. it is a matter of time. it will come relatively soon. >>neil: what is relatively soon? >>guest: next couple of weeks. >>neil: but if he were to wait until midsummer, that would be bad? >>guest: big mistake. big, big mistake. santorum wants to run again. obviously. he is young. he thinks he has earned another shot at the presidency, and many republicans grow with him, so,
given that, he has to do what he can for romney even if deep down the he doesn't like romney or doesn't think he can win, it doesn't matter what he thinks he has to come to the aide his party and the presidential nominee. >>neil: now being the money geek, larry, is there an understanding some time that you will step out of the race and you talk to the guy or woman not race and maybe you can help me with a couple of fundraisers, or ease my debt load. how do the discussions go? >>guest: well, generally, it is at the campaign manager level rather than candidate to candidate. >>neil: i always think it is like a sopranos episode. >>guest: you had to bring it down to italian american. i am disappointed in you. >>neil: but romney would say this, well i will raise it with him tomorrow, look, i see your campaign is running in the red,
you have a lot of money and i can help you there. >>guest: santorum has $2 million debt, and he is not a wealthy man, he doesn't want to cory that debt, although it is a separate organization not personal debt, he has to clear it away before he runs again, so, of course, romney will help him have some cocktail parties or gathering of key romney supporters, who can even if they have given all they can give to romney they can still give some to santorum. so, i'm sure that will happen. i'm sure santorum wants a speech at the convention. hent withs some influence on the platform, these things are negotiable, and they are probably being negotiated as wested here and talk. >>neil: well, he can't not be given a prime time speech, right? >>guest: well, that's up to the nominee. there are times when it would have been better had a nominee not given in, for example, pat
buchanan, his speech, his prime time speech at george h.w. bush's renominating convention in 1992 ended up hurting burn the it was a harsh bush and it put bush in a bad late, so, sometimes you want an understanding of what is going to be said, not just whether there is a speech. >>neil: you are able to come back and remember dates and individuals because i was going to talk about the fillmore convention. >>guest: i remember that well. that was pretty exceeding of course he wasn't, he was never elected president he only succeeded but he ran as a free soil candidate. >>neil: who can forget the free soil thing. professor, you are the best, thank you very much. this is not high enough because now the white house is spending now the white house is spending half billion to heighten this.
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>>neil: don't look now but the money drain is about to leave the station with on board half a billion because that is how much the department of transportation plans to spend on 130 new double decker cars for amtrak, basically newer versions of these only with wi-fi. so, money will spent? well, david williams wants to kick the government in its rear for this. >>guest: i am sure this is coincidence it is happening before an election they are spending $500 million for new trains and be honest, amtrak need as if you business model not new trains. >>neil: i worry about the double decker, if you are in the top, i see so many tunnels.
>>guest: disconcerting. >>neil: you know, amtrak has been the company that has surprised because democrats and republicans alike on the washington corridor like the convenience and it has a lot of friends. >>guest: and we have a vice president who went to work on amtrak every day for a number of years. that comes into play, as well. >>neil: so maybe this makes it more appealing and more of a money maker. >>guest: we have seen in the past two years, ridership is going up, yet the profits or the cost of is also going up and the cost to taxpayers is going up. how can you have ridership going up and the cost and subsidy? the pensions are straddling this train and amtrak so only in america, only the federal government can you have more riders and less money. great business model.
>>neil: but i think amtrak could do a for job on its own if it were private and had a business model that did not rely on a government backup plan, because, you know, not that they are the only game in town but along the track they are the only game if town and you could make a compelling argument for how they could go it alone and they could do that. >>guest: well, look at a trip from washington, dc to chicago, it takes 20 hours on amtrak. about two hours on a plane, the plane costs $100 more, and i did my research before i came on, 20 hours? do you have 20 hours to go from washington to chicago, there are a limits number of train routes that could make money. the midwest, where the new trains are going, it doesn't make money. >>neil: all right, thank you, buddy, good to see you. john edwards the trial of his life and now enduring the worst
>> neil: are any of you following the john edwards trial? i can't say i am. something about whether the former presidential candidate misused campaign funds, had a relationship with a woman and later had his baby. sorted, weird. it might be illegal. and end up sending john to the joint. well, last time i checked, $00 haircuts are hard to come by. who knows? this guy is as unpopular as you can get. did you see the cbs/"new york times" poll showing that only 3% of americans have a favorable view of edwards? 3%. i think charles manson had higher approval numbers. 3%. richard nixon never got below
30%. carter. 39%. even president bush in the worst of the middle of the meltdown had 28% of americans liking him. all of them together would be like the pope, dalai lama and betty white rolled in to one compared to this guy. 3%. thinking to myself, self, who are these people? three out of 100 folks who approve of john edwards? who the heck did they poll? bernie madoff? the cat from the "bachelor"? no who? who? one thing to shrug your shoulders but to like him, knowing everything we do now? i interviewed him whence he was running for president and when he was out promoting a book where he grew up and how
it taught him to value what people like most. >> strength of leadership. people want a president of the united states they can be proud of. >> neil: indeed they do. very charming, but not at all what i thought. not at all what most of his devoted followers thought. a man who emblazoned his name in the lexicon when he complained of his affair that at least it when his wife was in remission. that is antic i can hall of fame remark. but for 3% of americans apparently not. for this politician, could improve his base. maybe not big enough to fill a convention hall right away but start. assuming he starts in a phone booth.