have a great week and we'll see you next "fox news sunday" live manchester, new hampshire. i am megyn kelly. this is the kelly files live from the beautiful state capitol of des moines. >> welcome to "hannity." tonight the iowa caucuses are less than 24-hours away. the final poll before they pick their candidate shows it will be a tight race for both political parties. on the republican side donald trump in front with 28 percent. ted cruz is close behind 23 percent. marco rubio third with 15 percent. they are followed by carlson, paul and christie. hillary clinton leads bernie sanders 45 to 42 percent. here with reaction from the weekly standard steve haze the editor in chief of mraur raw inge gram. from the daily caller knocfox n
contributor tucker carlson. laura, i will start with you. here's the issue. they were the most accurate polled in 2012, 2000, 2004. the polls have been really bad. trump up 5 in this poll. real clear politics has him up 6. hillary up three. real clear politics average up 3. do you believe these polls? >> i mean, i feel like i have a gun on my head saying trump is going to win iowa. do i have specific information? no. when you look at the polls the des moines register and of course the new poll that came out today franklin pierce in new hampshire there seems to be some type of momentum for trump. cruz was ahead for a lopping time. he built up an expectation he was going to win iowa. it could go either way.
it will still be very close. marco rubio has a lot of ground to make up. he's at 15 percent. maybe he will do a little better than that. it's still a trump, cruz outsider verses establishment narrative in this race. i don't see that major narrative changing at all. >> we are talking about two insurgent candidates. you have 20 percent saying they could be persuaded to change their vote. big impact? little impact? >> potentially you have seen it in years past unlike a conventional election caucus contains a portion where people's neighbors make a pitch to them on behalf of candidates and we see where rick santorum came from third to first. people change their minds. we can't oefrp emphasi-- over ee enough we can see both change dramatically based on the results of monday votes. bernie dasapped ders and donald
trump are not making cases about themselves but making detailed passionate critiques of their own parties and how the parties need to change. we are seeing a real alignment of the parameters that are unclear. it is big. need to keep that in mind. >> steve, i will say another point to that is, bernie sanders donald trump by far had the biggest crowds. weather may be a factor according to some reports. do crowds turn into votes? >> i would guess they probably do because people are out in the cold weather for long periods of time for both candidates, right? >> yeah. that is the key question in many respects to determine the results of tomorrow night. i think they likely will. i think as we have talked about before, you have people waiting in lane for two hours to go hear a donald trump speech. some of that may be curiosity. there is no question he has an intensity of support that is unmatched by the other candidates that he's facing off
with. same thing is true with bernie sanders maybe more true democrats many of them feel an obligation to vote for hillary clinton and ro voting for her for reasons other than policy other than what is being debated on a substantive level. bernie sanders is making a case on what had an appeal to iowa and nationally. ee oo you have been fair to trump and ted cruz. if crump wi-- trump wins and cr doesn't pull it out in iowa people thought he had big advantage. does he -- >> cruz in the speech he gave a few days ak, it is hard to see that cruz could stop him if he wins big in iowa bigger than a couple of points. i think it is going to be hard.
i think the idea that the establishment candidate if it is rubio people start coalescing behind rubio, i think the establishment candidates are going to pick up their marbles and go home. i think tucker is exactly right. this is a battle for the future and the soul of the republican party. i think the people who are showing up with that trump and cruz rally, i think they literally believe this might be the last chance to save america. that's how serious they are about this. i think they are going to show up and vote. they are going to vote and say how dare you question whether we are going to show up and vote. they are mad but they are devoted. that's how they see it. >> you talk to them on your radio show every day. i talk to them on my show every day. it is not so much anger and righteous determination. tucker, it is amazing to me the
establishment people in washington don't understand they have created this insurgency here. trump and cruz are inserting candidates and both are hated by the establishment and elites in washington. they don't seem to get it. >> these candidates are a reaction to their incompetence and deceit. i was amazed the pitch he had. if wasn't i am going to bring america back to where it ought to be. all of the other candidates are rerunning the romney campaign. i am the only one with a shot to take to new york. i can take a ton of democrats over to my campaign. the crowd went crazy on that. i am not endorsing my theory. i never heard him say that
before. >> that makes a lot of sense, don't it? >> i could see a state like new york, pennsylvania maybe michigan in play. why not. >> in the beginning he had terrible favorables unfavorables. he has found a way to reverse those. they are better now. in iowa it is 50 percent favorable 47 percent unfavorable venlt there was a "washington post" poll out that asked if they had anxiety donald trump presidency. 50 percent say they would be anxious about a donald trump presidency and 25 percent say they would fall apart. >> i have a panic attack about the thought of hillary. i can understand and relate to that. >> 52 percent in the gap lup poll have unfavorable thought about hillary. >> i think that's right.
that would be the argument that you hear from trump supporters. he would have a done of work to do if he turned that around. i am skeptal he can do it. others aren't. >> it is an uphill battle for republicans to be more popular with a traditionally nonrepublican voter. i've been arguing this. i know you have as well. on two issues there are amazing opportunities with independent voters and other voters. doesn't mean you don't trade or don't like immigrants it means those two policies have to work for the averaged working person. if we can lift the middle class up we are not going to give you anything but give you a fair shake at getting a job. if you think they are devoted to those people again instead of the people have done really well, i think you can make a lot of progress. maybe 10 point progress.
>> final question. we will go down the line. tucker we will start with you. who is going to win iowa tomorrow night? >> i have no idea. i am going to go with what the polls have. i could easily be wrong, of course. >> what about the democratic side? >> bernie sanders. >> bernie sand derps is going to win. hillary people are more panicked. they are crawling with lobbyist and lawyers from washington brought in by hillary. it is a big deal if she loses. >> trump sanders lawyers and lobbyists over washington, d.c. and the establishment. it will be a major case of the vapo vapors. one more hail mary pass. >> i don't think i have heard that in a long time.
>> all right. good job. >> steve haze. your predictions for tomorrow. >> i hate to make it 3 for 3 but iowa republicans had donald trump ahead. some cases ahead by 11 points. i expect he will and other voters will show up. maybe trump is the likely winner on the other side. if you look at the enthusiasm those that are devoted and almost certain to show up that is what will give bernie sapped ders is win over hillary clinton. >> if first time caucus voeers show up for trump it will be 16. >> guys, good to see you. paul, thank you for being with us. >> thank you. coming up next
right here on "hannity." >> he is a nasty guy. nobody likes him. you can't run a country that way. it will be a total mess. it will be worse than what you
have right now. >> i think the people of iowa deserve more the american people deserve more is a bthan a battlf petty insults. they are in a nasty war of words one day until the iowa caucuses. they have reaction next. hillary clinton is in damage control mode after the state department announced it would not release 22 of the e-mails because they were deemed to be too top secret. monica crowley will explain how much legal trouble she is really in. all of that (inspirational music) (special effects) lisa! what took you so long? (laser blasts) duracell quantum lasts longer in 99% of devices, so you can power imagination all day long. (duracell slamtones)
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trump. let's take a look. >> here's a guy with all of the senators not one endorsement of cruz because he's a nast y guy nobody likes him. you can't run a country that way. it will be a total mess. it will be worse than what you have right now. >> i think the american people deserve more than just a battle of petty insuggests. i don't intend to play that game. >> i think much more important is the whole fact that he was born in canada and he was a citizen of canada until 15 months ago. >> he called me canadian anchor baby. there's a reason he's engaging in personal attacks. >> ted this is why nobody likes him. >> somebody owes hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions of dollars to attack heidi and me because we put our life savings into running for senate. >> joining us knew is the co
host juan williams kimberly guilfoyle and juan williams. people get upset over this but this is not bean paul. this is a lot at stake. the most important job in the world. this happens at every election. people seem to forget. >> absolutely. throughest a tremendous amount people from in a nigfight to ge this country back national security and foreign policy. the stakes are high. iowa matters a great deal. we are going to find out tomorrow night a very good likelihood of who the repub cap nominee could be. don't count ruin yo o-- rubio o. you have trump and cruz going neck and neck. you should fight to earn the vote. >> 1500 candidate rallies over 16,000 television ads it is coming down to the phenol hours.
this is the real deal. they are fighting for it and at this point the gloves are off. >> the gloves are off and the polls show that it could be any one. i am in a camp that says look like trump , they are going to get their number one. yuz and rubio are fighting hard. will it be trump rubio or trump cruz. there is a 30 minute rubio ad where he talks about his faith for 30 minutes that is running locally in iowa. that is smart politicking. >> your beloved democrats are not new from this either. bernie sanders and hillary are playing hardball, too. >> no question about it. i am going to play hardball right now with you you are a long island anchor baby and you
know it. >> wow. >> the idea that cruz feels confident is the talk of the day. he has the grounding he has the people in place. he fights to win. i am surprised because i think paul indicates he has been slipping over the last few dies. does trump have the ground game to back up the poll numbers. as eric was saying cruz is getting hit not just by trump but also by rubio. you have the squeeze on cruz. >> i asked you about hillary. you attack me worse than the candidates are attacking each other. the fact is hillary is going to lose new hampshire. if she loses iowa and new hampshire and you have fbi -- >> i do a lot of running around here. you never see a class roots
organization like bernie sanders has. everyone has bernie sanders signs. we saw young people walking into restaurants retail stores saying can we put bernie sanders sign in your window? >> enthusiastic. hillary better be prepared for a big upset. bernie has the moan moment-- mo. he took time to speak with sand derps where hillary is struggling and couldn get an u upset. >> there is energy for bernie right now. i went to an event the other day and you could see the unions they support. she had that structure in place. the young people, eric was talking about the democratic
establishment. >> shill ry is plus 3 in iowa. she is down double digits in new hampshire. now we have an important issue about hillary clinton and her possibly being indicted. you are a lawyer. with that background you think she committed felonies? >> there's a real likelihood she in fact could be indicted. the fbi will recommend an indictment to go forward. it will be up to the justice department to make that call. the news for hillary in the last 72-hours has been very damaging. she should have serious concerns about the legality of what she did. in true clinton style they will try to throw somebody else under the bus to take the fall for it. they have to make serious value
choices here. >> lightning round. i will ask all three of you. who wins democrat republican. does hillary get an indictment? >> you are talking about who wins? >> just iowa. >> i think it will be trump, cruise but rubio will be close on the row publican side. i think bernie sanders is going to pull out iowa. bernie sanders nomination will be great for the gop. >> i think donald trump takes iowa. it will be devastating to ted cruz's pain going forward than the one to loss that can over perform. he set the bar a little bit low is marco rubio. he looks good going forward from here. he's one to watch. if you listen to the analysts they are talking about trump taking it. you mentioned about hillary.
3 percent? that's within the margin of error. >> trump consistently. wheth there is a question of whether there is a storm on the way. does cruz who has people on the ground and got them up says he carries it. hillary clinton probably wins. there is a possibility we see something unprecedented. it is a turnout between 150, 180,000 and with the weather you have to push that down to more than 150 i think it is clinton. >> last question yes or no. hillary indicted? is eric? >> no. because it's a doj arched barack obama won't let that happen? >> kimberly. under barack obama, no, wait who gets it in 2016. >> i am not going to ask juan.
the answer is no. thank you very much. >> i am trying to get an indictment of the long island anchor baby. >> oh, stop. >> i am not even running against you. >> wait until you see the ad. >> wait until you see the ads tomorrow night. >> i am not listening to him. >> coming up tonight. >> her problem is with the obama justice department. >> things continue to get worse for hillary clinton after it is revealed she had top secret information on her server. plus tonight. >> she is qualified for being president of the united states. she had classified information to foreign intelligence agencies because she thinks she is above the law. >> this is a serious matter. >> clinton's republican rivals
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>> her problem is the fbi and the obama justice departments. where democrats are quietly absolutely petrified about is come summer, you know, you find an indictment of people around her, of her, request for a special prosecutor something that turns this into a complete disast disaster for the democrats. >> outlining a grim reality for hillary clinton and the democrats. this after the state department announced on friday 22 of clinton's e-mails will not be released because they were deemed to be top secret. jiening us with more monica crowley and the author of "undemocratic" the expanded paper back version comes out on tuesday for the american center
for law and justice jay secula. both of you have been on the story in a big way. we have followed this in a big way. remember on friday darrel issa former house committee compare man the fbi would like to indict huma abedin. if comey and the fbi recommend they move forward with indictment and they don't, that is a bigger problem than if she is indited. >> you have the director of the fbi, the agents put together a case they are developed what is called a criminal reference letter that is reviewed by the director. the grand jury should be em panelled or indictments should issue. if the attorney general was to dismiss it if he were to make
that recommendation and she just says no or it comes down from the president we are not going to go there. the president runs a risk of a legacy issue. you have serious senior career fbi agents, lawyers walking out. the reaction would be strong. national security interests reach the legal of the fbi director. assuming this comes into play. the fbi director makes a determination for prosecution and they say no. big problems. >> he has pro enproven in the pt that's an option available to him. he almost did it with george w. bush was president. >> we have the inspector general intelligence commune tigity say dozens of e-mails are special access programs sap. we have the new report 22
e-mails they want release them because of the highly sensitive nature of the intelligence. that is contrary to what they told us. also i would image a felony. how bad is this for her? >> it is a gathering stone. as far as we know the fbi investigation is proceeding along two tracks. you have the possible miss handling of classified material. u a public corruption track which involved whether or not not she her husbandoused her work at the state department and/or the clinton foundation. also remember another important thing. all of these e-mails about which we are hearing the problematic ones the top secret documents highly sensety and classified, those came from the e-mails she turned over to the state
department. we haven't heard what is in the 30,000 or so that she deleted that the fbi is now recovering. they were the most damaging e-mails. katherine herridge reported on this met work that the fbi was able to cover those e-mails. we have no idea what is with those. whatever decision she ultimately makes. they politicize this, it looks almost watergatwatergate, too. >> he didn't know about the secret e-mail. he learned about it like the rest of us. >> whether did you have official business. >> everybody else learned through the reports. >> that's not true. he was e-mailing her on that
private e-mail. 18 times. >> yeah 18 times. >> here is what's going to happen. this is the reality of the law verses the politics. under equal justice under the law if anybody else was investigated for this if the evidence lays up like we think we are going to there wouldn't be an indictment. this is the presumptive frontrunner of the democratic party during a general election. if she loses say i roy and gnne hampshire it is vulnerable and it may evaporate. it should be legal justice under you the law. part of this the president willing, two risks here, number one, is he willing to tell the
fbi recommendation to procedurer roar receipt dau lynch someone of his stalt tour has todstoom to his own. is he willing to buck the f 3shg i director? or is he able to tell the them what is ma helps make you lead. they are worried about it. 1600 pennsylvania avenue. >> shawn. >> last word. >> i want to add one thing. i have always thought not to express this that i think when we have been watching here is a very bloody but unspoken negotiation between barack obama and hillary clinton. i do think hillary clinton is barack obama's first choice to be the democratic nominee. i think he would rather heed his
own needs rather than turn it over to the clintons. what parts do we have to play against barack obama. if they could shield his private e-mail. that could be a card. perhaps the irs scandal. we don't know what ult atly the end game is going to be. we have a hand from the fbi whether or not it is a referral it becomes a political matter. that's where all of the questions i raised come into ply. >> he was caught lying. she exposed classified information to foreign intelligence agencies. she thinks she is above the law. >> i am flabbergasted she nice
to have the server scandal. later tonight. >> we are going to make our country and it accepts tell el line. making their final checks. lu here in the city, parking is hard to find. seems like everyone drives. and those who do should switch to geico because you could save hundreds on car insurance. ah, perfect. valet parking. evening, sir. hello! here's the keys. and, uh, go easy on my ride, mate. hm, wouldn't mind some of that beef wellington... to see how much you could save on car insurance, go to geico.com. ah! (car alarm sounds)
plan well and enjoy life... ♪ or, as we say at unitedhealthcare insurance company, go long. how you plan is up to you. take healthcare. make sure you're covered for more than what just medicare pays... consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company... the only medicare supplement plans that carry the aarp name, and the ones that millions of people trust year after year. always have a plan. plan well. enjoy life. go long. >> he has what it takes to be commander-in-chief. if you are not going to obey the law with national security is he cretes it should be you don't have what it takes. >> we are not talking taking the mattress pads off. we are talking about serious offenses for which the obama
justice department through the book at general petraeus. >> you have to grind this way and figure out how it all gets disclos disposed of. >> she had sensitive classified information to foreign intelligence agencies. >> hillary clinton and her service scandal the last few days joining us reaction fox news legal anl 'tis peter jonathan junior fox news contributor doug shown. i want to pick your legal grain here. when you have 22 e-mails being cla too classified to be released p the lpublic isn't that an admission that felonies are recovered. doesn't that make it likely the fbi director going to move forward with a criminal
referral? the greater perhaps on the face is the evidence that these classified or top secret or others sent to the materials were stored and communicated above open servers and home room servers not by the state department or the white house or by the federal government. i think john kasich has it right it is not a legal issue. it will grind itself out. she will be perhaps disqualified herself if it goes forward. >> one process question. explain the process by which a grand jury will be by this. >> the fbi made a determination and referral. the justice department based on that referral would exercise prosecutorial discretion.
it means they don't have to take it to the grand jury. if a grand jury decides to indict the question becomes for hillary clinton answer this question will you agree not to pardon any eggs that have been indicted. you will appoint a special prosecutor. under those conditions i think doug will agree she can't stay in the race. >> what a powerful question. i am not surprised coming from peter johnson jr. if that question begins to get asked and she has to answer that question she won't take a definitive stance that will be very damning for her. thoughts? >> i think it would be. peter is exactly right. i would say her response today was telling. she now was saying these e-mails were not generated by her server. she is trying to argue that she
is not in some way -- >> culpable. >> she didn't violate a negative standard. that is her defense. >> peter, they are not allowed to be on there. that's the problem. she knew that. that is what general petraeus have faced holding on to evidence. >> i don't think the white house will be sending hillary clinton in regard to the e-mails and her conduct. if the fbi and justice department believe a crime is committed it will be referred and there's a likelihood she will be indicted. if those conditions prevail that will happen and you might have vice president biden or elizabeth warren or someone else heading up the democratic ticket. >> shawn, i -- she will be indicted by the j t
justice department. >> if it does happen -- who are the candidates? >> if it does happen the campaign will end if she is indicted. i think it is a big if. >> i think he is he is be actually right. he is waiting in the wings and want to run biden and elizabeth warren is the likely ticket they would get. he is going to win new hampshire. this is a muddled race making it more cloudy and complicated. >> we will have more evidence at this point. i don't think there's a business sis pi point she will be indicted. if the evidence is there i believe the fbi will act in a responsible way. >> i don't think we have the evidence yet. it is still a political process.
>> it is divinely inspired. we are here for a purpose. >> should i be your president i will wake up every day guided by that principal. this is a powerful principal that created the greatness of this country. >> the son of a bartender and made could have the same dreams and future as the son of a president and the son of a millionaire. that's the kind of country i want toy children to inherit as well. >> i am going to sit in that chair and i am going to say this feels familiar. >> freedom is not free. you have to fight for it every day. >> we have a chance to do something so historic. we are going to make our country rich again and make it powerful and strong again and make our country respected again. >> we will win the caucuses and win the nomination, and we will win the general election and beat hillary clinton and turn this country around.
>> they are making their final pitches in iowa ahead of the caucuses. republican strategist schlepp. tomorrow what would you do? >> tomorrow i would vote for trump. if i was an eye owe an and i could go to the caucuses i would caucus for donald trump. i think he has changed the political landscape in every regard. that is assuming republicans can only caucus for republicans. i am a registered republican. i think everyone who has everything to lose is cruz. i think if he doesn't prevail is the end of senator cruz. he has steakaked so much on the evangelical state.
he loses i think trump runs the table. >> when you are kicking off c pack you have a lot of candidates there did you ever image it would unfold this way less than a year later? >> absolutely not, shawn. this has been the story of the unconventional politics. done nald trump is the frontrunner now. he's the fighter for america. it is interesting to see how it is playing out. not only is it a man tell of anger it is a mandel tell of fear. not only in iowa but across the country. talking to iowan voters it has been very interesting. being on the ground. the fact is there are a lot of folks still undecided who could still be persuaded. we saw this in the fox news poll
even talking to the folks here. they are unsure. it could be a real nail biter for tomorrow. >> who will win tomorrow? forget about who you would vote for? who will win republican and democrat? >> i think on the republican side it will be very tight between trump and cruz. i talked to the cruz campaign today, they feel pretty good about they are organizing the 99 counties and as we know trump has a solid ground. on the democrat side i will say hillary clinton. >> geraldo same question? >> i think that hillary will prevail on the democratic side only narrowly. what gets me mercedes mentions it is an anger election. but you have the irony that the left is angry because they think obama administration has not done enough. the right is angry because they think he has done too much. everything is angry at different
things. will it be interesting to see the center of the lek terror rats hold their nose like the republican holding their nose like trump they don't like. >> all right guys. we are running out of time. thank you both geraldo, mercedes. when we come back we need your help. a very important question of the day. i thought i married an italian. my lineage was the vecchios and zuccolis. through ancestry, through dna i found out that i was only 16% italian. he was 34% eastern european. so i went onto ancestry, soon learned that one of our ancestors we thought was italian was eastern european. this is my ancestor who i didn't know about. he looks a little bit like me, yes.
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the best returns aren't just measured in dollars. >> time for our question of the day. so which candidates do you think will win the iowa kuk cusses tomorrow? go to facebook.com/shawn anity. @shawn anity on twitter. let us know what you think. midnight eastern 9:00 on the west coast. we will be covering the results
on iowa. we may not have them. last time it took two weeks. we will see you book tore tomorrow night. it is 8:00 p.m. in the east, 7:00 here in des moines, iowa, where after months of campaigning, we are now just 24 hours from the first contest in the 2016 election. we are live from iowa's historic state capitol. good evening, everyone. i'm megyn kelly. that was a pretty shot, wasn't it? >> it was gorgeous. and i'm bret baier. candidates from both sides of the aisle crisscrossing the hawkeye state, making their final pitch to voters on a frenetic last full day of campaigning, and the frontrunners on both sides are digging in their heels. >> all across the state of iowa, all across this country, p