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president obama's former defense secretaries about cuts to our military. that's it for today, have a great week and we'll see you next "fox news sunday." crash kills two individuals. we'll see you next weekend. >> have a good day, everybody. good the battle for wisconsin in its final stages. the badger state a pivotal stop. ted cruz and donald trump going at each other tooth and nail hoping a win on tuesday can act as a spring board for their campaigns. and help them nail down the top spot on their party's ticket. welcome to sunday morning futures. as the fight plays out donald trump and ted cruz telling voters that victory is at hand. >> i think we're going win before we get to the convention. if we get to the convention the establishment politicians who want to protect their jobs and
paychecks and protect all of the different things like lobbyists and special interest, they don't like me. i used to be a part of the establishment. >> we're devoting our energy to earning the votes, winning the stakes and earning the delegates to win a majority before the convention. i'll tell you wisconsin will have a powerful voice in that. not just the 42 delegates here but all across the country. people are looking to this great state of wisconsin. >> and joining me right now is new york congressman peter king, a member of the homeland security committee. congressman, good to see you. >> always good to see you. >> i think it's interesting this is the reason we invited you on this afternoon. as we look ahead to tuesday, wisconsin, why are all the candidates in new york this past week? you had ted cruz in new york. john kasich in new york. famous shot of him eating pizza. hillary clinton and bernie sanders in new york. trump has headquarters here in new york.
first let's talk about wisconsin and then i want to get your take on new york, obviously. what do you expect tuesday? >> right now it looks as if ted cruz will win in wisconsin. i'm not a ted cruz fan by any means but all the polling, all the momentum seems to be going his way in wisconsin. wisconsin has a different type of republican, they are conservative but also very practical and down to earth and i think they have been either turned off or become concerned by some of the things donald trump has been saying. not so much anti-trump but they have real concerns about him being our nominee for president. john kasich will make a better showing than people might think. he's from ohio. in many ways he represents more what wisconsin is like but he's getting a late start in wisconsin. ted cruz has a good ground game. looking at it from a distance i would say ted cruz can win by 10 points in wisconsin. >> how important is wisconsin, then, in the general scene? if ted cruz wins wisconsin what does that mean for his prospects coming into the northeastern
states which are right after that, like new york, pennsylvania, connecticut, congressman? >> i think the most impact it has as far as slowing donald trump down. if he could have won wisconsin i think that would have really put him on the fast track to the nomination. if cruz does beat him and beat him convincingly in wisconsin it will raise doubt about donald trump and slow his momentum and then you have two weeks where basically no primaries or caucuses of any real significance between wisconsin d new york. so all the emphasis goes on new york. that's where kasich can make a move. cruz can slow trump down there's no great love for cruz either. trump has to show he's ready for primetime and for a guy who has been on television so much he really has not been ready for primetime. he has a lot of support. in his column he's letting down his own supporters by not being prepared enough. you can't make to it the presidency without showing better knowledge.
>> we know what his commentary has been recently, comments on women, abortion, muslims and then, of course, this morning there's an article out in the "the washington post" that trump gave an interview to. he said the economy very weak. that we're going to see a big sell off in the stock market and big recession coming. let me ask you about your own favorites here. for a little while i thought you were warming up to donald trump. and then he made those comments about jeb bush. you got very angry about that. i know you were supportive of marco rubio, very supportive. going into wisconsin and the other states, who are you backing now? are you basically expecting a contested convention? >> i think there might well be a contested convention. look i have nothing against donald trump. i thought the remarks he made about jeb bush and president bush, how he said he lied about iraq, how he knew 9/11 was coming and did nothing about it.
all of that was so wrong. that's what turned me against donald trump at that time. again, i would like him to get his act together and be a strong candidates. right now he's not showing it. i think we are on the way to a contested convention. john kasich has a lot much grassroots support and could do very well at the convention. for myself right now, listen, i did endorse marco rubio. he didn't make it. i don't want to keep jumping in and out. i'll keep watching. see where it goes. if there's a contested convention i'll have something to say then. >> there's nothing wrong with a contested convention. if he doesn't get if the 1237 votes that's the way it moves. you think john kasich could come all the way from behind and actually take it during this contested convention if that's how it plays out? >> i'm saying he could be viable because john kasich, again, donald trump if he flames out and doesn't make it and then you have ted cruz, a lot of animosity in the republican
party. if trump can't make it hard for a lot of people to go ted cruz. hard for the trump people to go cruz. again, donald trump, if he can get it together, if he can show more knowledge on foreign policy and on some key issues, i think the base, the emotional segment of the party definitely is for him but he's letting down his own supporters. if he can turn that around he would still be the favorite. >> let me ask you about terrorism and your thoughts on what we're seeing this morning. of course the first flight took off from the brussels airport as it is re-opening slowly with certainly a scaled back service. given what we know now and what took place in brussels, congressman and, of course, these new scares about the u.s. what should to be done in terms of isis, in terms of this new reality that we all face?
>> several things. the european countries have to do better in sharing information. they have to take this more seriously. for years we couldn't even get them to cooperate in giving us the passenger manifests on planes coming from europe to the u.s. they thought we were overreacting. now it's hit home. british have been good. the other countries don't work closely enough together. they have to. they have to start sharing this information. number two we have to go after isis more aggressively. we have to go after them more aggressively in syria. also realizing now with these encrypted apps harder and harder to get signal intelligence or listen to what isis is planning. we need more intelligence on the ground and that means in our own country and european countries to have more of an undercover police presence. to have informers, to have people on the ground to be in the. muslim communities. that's where the threat is coming from. 98%, 99% muslims are good americans.
but like with the italian mob you went into the neighborhoods. we have to put political correctness aside to get the intelligence. >> how worried are you about the u.s. seeing an attack imminently and including that, talk about new york for a moment. are we doing enough in new york given that we're seeing it in these big cities and paris and brussels. is new york next? investigations are going on right now about people who want to join the fight, right? >> yes. throughout the country. i don't want to scare anyone. there are no imminent plots i'm aware of right now. u.s. is the number one target. within the u.s. new york city and surrounding areas are clearly the number one terrorist target in the country today. that's why there's more than 1,000 new york city police officers working full time. they have their own counterterrorism intelligence unit. i have real issues bill de
blasio campaigning and the new york city with civil liberties union were attacking the nypd for the surveillance work they were doing. without going into details. i have confidence that bill bratton will do what needs to be done. he knows what he's doing. he's getting it done despite the politic around him. >> what do you expect in the next few weeks. we have the primaries coming to new york. important time for your state. >> it really is. this is the first time ever that new york has been important in a presidential race. usually by the time it comes to new york the race is already decided. i think right now it's going real test if donald trump doesn't win over 50% in new york that's really going to slow him down forgoing to the convention. over 50% he gets all the delegation. under 50 they get apportioned
out. on the democratic side i'm amazed that bernie sanders is running so close to hillary clinton. i mean the last poll, 40 points now only 12-point spread. if hillary clinton doesn't win new york big, again it shows bernie sanders is in it for the long haul and it shows her campaign has real issues. real problems. >> pretty extraordinary. congressman good to speak with you as always. thanks so much. congressman peter king. what does a contested convention look like? it is a real true possibility. we'll talk with the republican national committee and scott baio weighs in on donald trump and the establishment. follow me on twitter. stay with us as we look ahead this morning on "sunday morning futures." futures." ...so you say men are superior drivers?
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welcome back. a contested convention could be in the future for the gop. that might spell trouble for donald trump in the next several months because on a second ballot delegates could break ranks with him and support another candidate. if trump can't reach the magic number of delegates needed to win the nomination john kasich doubts ted cruz can either. >> cruz needs about 90% remaining delegates and when we head east, impossible. not going to happen. >> joining me right now is the communications director for the republican national committee. sean, good to see you again. welcome. >> thank you. good morning. >> i want to talk about the possibility of a contested convention. would you say more likely than not at this point? >> i think as each contest gets under way, unless as you stated ted cruz needs 88%, donald trump needs 55% of the remaining delegates, we got wisconsin
coming up and two weeks after that 95 delegates in new york. as we pass each of these subsequent contests and somebody fails to pick up the requisite number the odds of that open convention become higher. >> how does this work? if trump heads into the convention without that magic number of 1237, we're told already more than 100 delegates are poised to break with him on a second ballot, break against him according to interviews with dozens of delegates. one of the starkest examples of lack of support out of the 168 republican national committee members each of whom doubles as a convention delegate only one publicly supports trump. do you think once they get in the convention and we get to perhaps a second ballot delegates will start switching their minds because they can. >> what happens is as you've noted you need 1237 delegates to win. whoever hits that number first becomes our nominee.
so on the first ballot almost all of the delegates are bound. there are a few states where they are unbound and elected to vote their conscience or stated a particular candidate. on the second ballot more of them become unbound and on third ballot but in a state like florida they are bound through three ballots. as each ballot goes you would see less and less unbound. that's where candidates, where the leg work comes in and these candidates need to be working -- the individuals that got elected and start talking about why they are the best candidate and why they deserve their support. this is part of the process. i think each of these campaigns is starting to work that system and learn who the delegates are that are going run and get elected for those slots. but in most cases they are elected in the first and second ballot. that's where you will see campaigns focus their effort
>> which is why now you have candidates trying to lure as many folks as they can because of contested convention is now looking more and more likely. >> well that's right. again, as you -- we've got right now we're about 1600 delegates through the process. 800 left to go. i think unless someone blows out in wisconsin and new york we're pretty much guaranteed to go to june 7th when you got 303 delegates on the ballot that day. this is going to go probably in all likelihood to june 7th and see if someone has got it. there's two scenarios. one somebody is short of the is 1237 but can make that up with the unbound delegates or two no one will have that magic number and then we go to this open convention where we go to a first or second round of balloting. >> we were just speaking with congressman peter king from new york and congressman king said look once we get into that contested convention it's anybody's to lose, anybody's to win. he basically made a prediction that john kasich could come out from all the way from behind and
be quite successful. is that even possible? >> of course it's possible. i think, again, as i mentioned, where a lot of these campaigns will spend a lot of time between now and the convention is having one on one conversations with the individuals that were elected as delegates by the grassroots voters, and try to talk to them about why they should stick with them through multiple rounds of voting. but that's going to be where these campaigns really show their depth. i think as congressman kasich mentioned on the democratic side you are seeing bernie sanders make a play keeping hillary clinton on the ropes. what will be really interesting on the other side of the aisle is if the big rumor going on in d.c. among democrats what happens if hillary clinton does get indicted, bernie sanders has amassed a pretty substantial amount of democrats and there's concerns among democrats that they end up with bernie sanders and super delegates which have pledged to hillary clinton the
unelected super delegate would find a way to draft joe biden or somebody else, elizabeth warren or somebody because they know they can't win with bernie sanders. i think if this indictment comes down on hillary clinton you'll see a lot of concern about what's going on the other side of the aisle. >> important points because we know the investigation from the fbi is now in its final stages where it may very well include and will include likely an interview with secretary clinton. very quickly here -- >> you brought it up in your interview with her. you brought it up in the interview with her. they are dismissive of it. there's a lot of concern among top ranking democrats in d.c. this possibility is very real and that would really hamper any idea of them being able to move forward with her as a nominee going out of their convention in philadelphia. so there's a lot of concern on the democratic side about how they move forward with a hillary clinton, how do they get somebody up whether it's joe biden or elizabeth warren and put them in place and use those unelected super delegates to get around the will of the voters.
>> i know you had a meeting with donald trump this week. all the headlines donald trump tries to make nice. did he tell you he wouldn't go for a third independent party? was it a good meeting? was he trying make nice with the rnc. >> he had a great meeting with the chairman. everybody on the party understands this that if we don't come out of cleveland unified that that's giving a leg up to the democrats. so a lot of what they are doing now is posturing. everyone knows we'll give the democrats a hand off if we don't come out of cleveland unified. so any talk of a third-party is bluster, a lot of talk. we as a party understand what's at stake. >> thanks so much. >> thanks. >> the u.s. economy posted a solid gain in jobs last month. the unemployment rate however did tick up. what is the true picture of the economy? donald trump predicting
recession. we'll break down the numbers as we look ahead on "sunday morning futures" next. we look ahead on "sunday morning futures" n ♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪
only with xfinity. welcome back. u.s. employers posted another solid month of hiring last month. 215,000 new jobs were added to the economy in the month of march. fueled by gains in construction, retail and health care. the unemployment rate ticking up to 5% last month largely due to more americans joining the workforce. where are we in this economy and global be market? joining us now to talk about it, mohamed el-erian, chief economic adviser and former pimco ceo. wonderful to have you on the program. welcome. i think we started the year with what the worst performance of any performance, for the stock market ever.
in the last couple of months the recession fears have begun to recede. we had a big rally in march. is all of this warranted? should we feel better about where things are today? >> we should feel a little bit better. the u.s. continues to be a good place, not a great place but a good place and you saw that from friday's employment report, 215,000 jobs created, wages going up. china seems to be stabilizing. there are also concerns out there. so the major threat isn't really domestic as much as it is what's happening abroad. keep an eye on europe. they have lots of stuff coming this summer. keep an eye on china to make sure it continues to soft land. >> we're looking at china seemingly beginning to recover. the emerging markets even had a good performance in the last two months or so and that area of the economy has been under a rock. to what do you attribute that performance. is this about oil beginning to
stabilize? >> it is about oil. also because markets that lack liquidity like emerging markets tend to overshoot on the way down and tend to overshoot on the way up. we overshot on the way down and now you're seeing the recovery. let's not forget central banks continue to support emerging marks. we have dovish statements out of the fed and ecb, bank of japan and people's bank of china have their pedal to the metal. >> i want to ask you about this report i read earlier and said high earners are leaving places like paris in droves. 10 million have moved out of the city of paris because of the extremism and this worry about islamic extremism. what's your take on what's going on in the world today as it relates to isis, et cetera, and the impact on an economy like europe?
>> we are trying to address to the role of nonstate actors. in the old days it was about nation states and when there were conflicts there were conflicts between nation states. now the major threat come from nonstate actors individuals that can cause major disruption. we as a society are trying to learn how to live with this and how to minimize that risk. you see certain people migrate out of what they view as high-risk areas. but the major thing is we collectively try to contain this risk. >> and in terms of the u.s., where is the risk right now? do you think we'll go into recession this year in '16? >> so i put the 2017 probability at 30%. that's not the baseline. this year is even lower. we get there one of three ways if we get there and i want to stress if. if the fed ends up making a policy mistake. we get there through a market
accident. remember markets have priced in much more liquidity than available or we get there if the world goes into recession. i think the combined probability of all these three things is about 30%. it's not my baseline but something to keep an eye on. >> should you invest in the u.s. market right now? >> i think the u.s. is, by far, the strongest economy in the advanced world. it is also the most stable one all over. the problem is that the u.s. has outperformed in a significant manner in recent years. i think you got to be careful. unfortunately, this is a mark for tactical investors. you've seen we were down 10% in february, up 10%. this is a market where traders will find it much easier to make money. >> certainly has been volatile. always a pleasure to speak with you. thanks so much.
mohamed el-erian joining us. up next you know him from "happy days" and ""charles in charge"," scott baio is with us. he's a donald trump supporter. why is he endorsing him and what does he think of the gop establishment. gop soup and sandwich and clean and real and inside jokes and school night. good, clean food pairs well with anything. try the clean pairings menu. at panera. food as it should be.
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