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tv   On the Record With Brit Hume  FOX News  September 26, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm PDT

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report." "a big debate night. fair, balanced and still unafraid. "on the record" and continuing coverage of the first presidential debate with my good friend, brit hume starts right now. hello and welcome back. i'm brit hume and this is "on the record." tonight from off stra university outside new york city, site of the long awaited debate between donald trump and hillary clinton. the real clear politics polling average tonight shows an exceedingly close contest with hillary clinton leading by just over 2 points in a two-way race and half a point less in a four-way. the betting odds meanwhile continue to show gamblers by a wide margin favoring mrs. clinton to win. mr. trump who arrived here just a short time ago continues to gain in some key state polls. more about them in a moment. first let's check in with our correspondents covering the two candidates. karl cameron with the trump campaign and jennifer griffin with secretary clinton.
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karl, let's start with you. where do things stand? >> he's on site and waiting for the debate to start at 9:00. he spent the day again today preparing for the debate with his team and included rudy giuliani, the former new york mayor, reince priebus, as well as his campaign manager, kelly anney and steve bannen. the five of them spent the day preparing for all of this and trump has been over the last month and a half giving a lot of policy speeches, read off a teleprompter before live audiences. he retained a lot of it. that was a big part of his preparation tonight. he wants to talk about policy and his vision for the country and it is widely believed that both candidates are trying desperately figure out how not to get got by the other and how to act presidential and show that chef the temperament, demeanor and level of honesty that bee fits the audience. it's not at all clear that
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hillary clinton plans to pick a fight. her aides are suggesting all day it could be a pretty boring debate because she's going to be focused on her policies and not criticizing donald trump. seems very hard to imagine that lasting very long. trump, on the other hand, doesn't mean to name call. he believes and the campaigns aides say that they believe that hillary will ultimately reveal herself as a sort of pedantic somewhat defensive, often stampering and obfuscating politician to show trump brings real change. hillary clinton is no stranger to debate preparation. she spent a better part of the last three days holed up with a team of advisers and aides. jennifer griffin has been traveling with the clinton campaign is live with us on another part of the hofstra campus. good evening, jennifer. >> hillary clinton left her house at 1:00 p.m. today in
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chappaqua. she skipped the walk through at the hofstra debate site. she went to her long time aide's house to do more prep. she prepped until the last minute. the trump camp and her opponents saying that these kind of twice-a-days are okay if you are a high school football star or football team, but it may be overpreparing for tonight's debate, but i'm told by close aides that she feels best when she prepares for four days before a debate and that's what she did. she used to leave the house at 11:00 a.m. they were very secretive. they didn't want reporters following them. in fact the secret service would try to cut reporters off as their cars tried to follow the convoy. we tracked her to a hotel in rye brooke, new york. a 17-minute drive from her house. that's where she did these 90-minute mock-up. her chief aide was playing
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trump, he prepared to the kind of can you have links that donald trump wore. we are told he tried to surprise her by coming out and playing her a compliment at the start of the debate. they expect to see nice donald trump at the start of the debate. we know she took basically one break over the last four days. she went into new york to meet with the israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu and a reporter happened to see her stop by her granddaughter charlotte's birthday party. it was in the flat iron district not far from chelsea's home and this abc reporter caught her coming out of that child's birthday party yesterday. so -- all we know now is that she's been prepping. she will drive with her husband bill clinton over here to the debate site. we saw mark cuban get off the bus with jesse jackson. he will be sitting in the front
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row tonight. >> as we noted earlier, the polls in key states suggest a possibly different state than a lead. in pennsylvania, where clinton had an average 10-point lead a month ago, the lead is now down to a single point. in colorado, where she had a similar 10-point lead a month ago, that same cnn poll actually has trump up by a point. to discuss this and much else, we're joined by old friend larry sabato. hello, larry. thank for joining us. >> hello, brit. how are you? >> i'm well. give me your take on just your overall take on the shape of the race. >> well, it's obvious. it's gotten very, very tight. you know, those two polls you just cited, i always say i have no idea if any individual poll is right. that's why i tend to rely on polling averages, but if they are correct, brit, they are two
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flashing yellow lights to the cln ton campaign as if they needed more. clinton has been drifting down. it's not a collapse. it's just a tiny drift down, and trump has been moving up a little bit at a time, especially in some of the key swing states. it's obvious that she's got to use the debate tonight to stop the deterioration and trump wants to use the debate to continue the deterioration. >> you know, larry, i was looking, of the new polls out, the one that really shocked me was pennsylvania, which is a place where republicans usually manage to find some hope sometime about the middle of october and i can remember presidential candidates on the republican side going into pennsylvania the last minute, spending a day and, of course, it always ends up being a forlorn hope because pennsylvania always in the end seems to go blue. but this close this season, if that poll is right, certainly
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struck me. how about you? >> when i saw it, i was very surprised. the same with colorado, given the polls we've seen for the last six months. now, look, in pennsylvania, the polling average is i think around 3 percentage points in clinton's favor. you have to look at the polling averages, but sometimes the poll is a harbinger of a change that is just happening. so that's why we watch not day by day but hour by hour. >> exactly right. do you think colorado -- colorado has been a back-and-forth state unlike pennsylvania. i suspect that poll didn't surprise you as much aspen -- as pennsylvania, am i right? >> absolutely. pennsylvania is much bluer. >> larry, as you look at tonight, what are you looking for? as you are watching, what will you be watching? what will be the tell-tale thing you are focused on? >> you know, they sit there or
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stand there, i should say and debate for 90 minutes and a lot of topics are covered. a lot of substance is covered, but we always get down to what goes on the debate reel that will last for all time, brit, and you i have have been around a long while. we remember the debates and there are tiny little snippets. sometimes it's a very clever snappy phrase that lasts and defines the debate, and sometimes it's a terrible gaffe that lasts and defines the debate. we have no idea which it's going to be or maybe it will be both. i have this feeling of anticipation. we're on the edge of something really big. ij don't know exactly what it is. >> me either. you heard jennifer griffin reporting that hillary clinton plans to focus on her programs and her proposals and so on, and they wouldn't mind if it was a rather dull debate. if it is a rather dull debate
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and neither candidate makes a big mistake, and donald trump is rather sedate and dull, who does that help, do you think? >> well, probably neither one. you know, there are two other debates. i have a hard time believing we're going to have three 90-minute debates and they are going to be sweet to one another for all that time. it's just not going to happen. this is a contest. it's a fight. it's a giant battle for the most powerful office in the world. you know, you are not going to have that kind of exchange constantly. >> larry, as always, thank you very much. back here at off stra university, donald trump and hillary clinton will take the debate stage in just under two hours from right now. what does each candidate need to do or say tonight for them to consider it a win? you probably know them as the campaign cowboys, former senior adviser karl rove and democratic strategist joe trippe. your thoughts on what mrs.
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clinton needs to do tonight. >> i think this whole debate is both of them fighting over college-educated whites. i think that's why i expect -- i do expect donald trump to be more genteel and a calmer voice. i expect her to try to bait him out and to get him out of that shell. >> how would you think she would go about doing that? >> i'm not sure. i'm sure they gamed it out, but i think -- i don't think a calm debate benefits her. i think a calm debate is something that trump probably wants to sort of appeal to those college-educated whites who have had a hard time getting to him because of his brashness, because of sort of how out there he can get because some of the language that he uses. >> it's an interesting question, karl, because this could be the kind of election year in which the public is poised to make a
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change but has been hesitant to do so because it's afraid of one candidate. that being donald trump. and that he really doesn't have to do all that much to give them permission, if you will, to vote for him. >> yeah, he's got the easier task. he's going to reassure people that he's up for the job. he has this huge dynamic of change running behind his narrative. two out of three, three out of every four americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. he said i'm different. i am change. she's more of the same. if it's a placid debate, being placid means he comes across as a reasonable, sensible, reassuring figure that people can see in the oval office, then he will have done well. >> you don't think he has to worry about losing his hardcore support by being too sedate. >> no, not at all. they are totally locked in. they are for him. the people who are sitting there, look, he is sitting in and depending on what poll you look at with support in the high 70s to low to mid 80s among
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republicans. no republican has ever won the white house without having over 90% of republicans in his corner and that group of people, high school -- excuse me, college-educated, in the suburbs are the target for him tonight. >> that's why you look at this. she's the only democrat in memory -- i think in history -- that's been competitive with college-jetted whites. gop always wins that. you got this situation. right now, she still has them. they have been drifting a little bit but she still has them. if he can break them away from her tonight, that does change the complexion of this race. she hangs on to them, then she wins this debate. now -- >> hangs on to them, maybe she wins the election. >> she wins the election and that's the interesting thing about it. there could be a moment in this debate that's really attractive to his supporters and everybody says wow, that was the moment, but if it pushes college-educated whites away from him, it could be the same moment everybody is talking about.
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>> ends up hurting. she does have the more difficult task. while people see her more experienced and qualified, they also see her as status quo what she's going have to do is come out and say i've got a vision that's reasonable and responsible change. nos easy to do. the race has been tightening. overtime, the gravitational power of change, she's got to make that dynamic. >> you don't think she has to go after him? >> i think that makes a mistake. look, it is more important for her to spend more of her time and leave a bigger impression about her and her vision than to go after him unless she can find that magic way to have him explode on the stanl and melt down which is easier said than done. >> i agree with that. she needs to make her case and she has to hope on immigration, on some of these issues that he's been out there on, that he has a misstep. that he takes the bait. >> if she fact checks him, which
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is her easiest way to get at him. she needs to fact check him to the moderator. it needs to be moderator. if she goes at him and says liar and liar, she's the loser in that battle. >> you think, joe? if they get into an exchange, harsh exchange. >> i think a harsh exchange is dangerous for both of them. we've seen this several times. i think trump -- he's not going to get away with lying ted or little marco. >> or crooked hillary. >> at this stage. >> i don't think that will work. >> he said that he planned to be respectful and then he asked his supporters in some kind of poll he conducted whether they wanted him to call her crooked hillary. if they all voted -- i suspect a lot of them said yes. you think it's a bad move. >> this is the thing. if he comes into this thing trying to satisfy his base or rev up his base, i think that
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pushes the college-educated whites that needs away from him and that's what she has to hold on to. >> he has that huge lead, 29 points on high school educated white men. that's not enough to offset this. >> no, it's not. joe is absolutely right. if they walk in here tonight and say the person on the other side of the camera that i'm talking to is my base, she says it's at -- you know, it's at that left wing true blue democrat or he says those people show up at my rallies make a mistake, tonight, those people are going to remain with him. they are going to look at him and say you know, you didn't do as well as i thawged you should have done. the 8, 12% that they are undecided, and the 5 or 10% that are weakly linked to them. >> what about this enthusiasm factor which appears to favor trump? if she's sedate and calm, does she -- does she do anything to
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help that situation? >> look, i think there's plenty of time for her to do that. we're going to do that with the get out the vote. the democrats do that. >> because this vote counts as much -- >> it doesn't matter. >> gentlemen, thank you. we have you back a little bit later. i do not envy lester holt of nbc news. tonight, he has the hardest job of all but what precisely should that be. that's next. stay with fox news all night long with live coverage for this debate from here at hofstra university.
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we are live at hofstra university in hempstead, new york, for the first presidential debate of the 2016 fall election. this year the moderators have become almost as big a sorry as the candidates themselves. many believe the moderators shu fly under the radar so what role should lester holt play tonight? our political panel is here. abc news political director rick kline and usa today, heidi cruz bella. when you get down to it, there seem to be two views. there's the moderator who asks some questions, keeps track of time, tries to give each candidate a fair shot and there's a moderator who is more interventionist. which do you think he should be? >> i think nbc itself has tried to telegraph a little bit that lester holt is not going to be a potted plant what he's going to
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do is what every moderator has done. whether you want to call that a fact check or holding candidates accountable, using his instincts when he hears something that's incorrect, intervene. not say you are wrong, you are lying, mr. trump or secretary clinton how does that square with your statement in 2011. >> that's an inconsistency issue. that's a little different. >> i think that's where we're getting tied up in this terminology about fact check. nobody expects the moderator to jump in with every statistic that may be off or may be a little bit embellished because that really would destroy the flow but to me that is a fact check and come back and remind them what their comments were and to square them with what they are saying today. >> heidi says moderator should intervene in situations like that. others say that's the job of the other candidate and the other candidate should be given a chance to do that. your thoughts. >> i think you come forward with new information. it's perfectly reasonable to say
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but mr. trump you said this but secretary clinton you said that and foster the conversation. i think when people largely don't want is big label that's a lie. we don't want to see that on the screen. but i think what's interesting here is that everyone is cutting for the man in the middle. you have both sides with views of what a moderator should do. half will support clinton and half for donald trump. everybody has potential to turn on the moderator. >> if i were the moderator and if i decided i was going to be the fact-checking moderator, that i might have trouble figuring out which facts to intervene on. i mean, if the candidate states a date wrong, for example, i came out against the war in 2003, actually you didn't come out until 2006 or something, is that important -- >> that's an important date, right? >> you have to make the editorial judgment in your opinion that's important. >> you have to make that
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judgment on the fly. >> that's an opinion. >> that's an important time frame. >> but your judgment whether it's important or not is necessarily an opinion, isn't it? >> i mean i think where you are drawing the distinction is on the level of important -- importance that is when the war started, were you against it when it started or later after the war already started. that's where matt lauer got in trouble. no one expected him to come out and say -- >> but he didn't have another candidate on the stage with him to whom to refer the question. . it was just a question of follow-up. it's a simple question of flup. >> i think the moderators need to choose a couple of areas where they are well versed. number one, you can get it wrong. >> we've seen it happen. >> if you study the issues, you know what's out there, you know what they are likely to say, you know what they have also said on that topic and you can find the appropriate areas. >> what would your first -- trump or clinton, make a statement, which you've heard from them before, because you know about it and it's at odds
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with the facts as you know them. do you first give the other candidate an opportunity to correct it or do you jump in yourself? >> i can see it playing either way. it depends on the dynamics of the moment. i think anything that you are doing to foster the conversation, that's what the commission of debates has made clear. they are not looking for a fact checker. they are looking for someone to create a conversation between two candidates. >> what's very important point is the way the format is constructed i think is going to minimize the number of times that lester holt potentially feels incline to do this because it's going to be two minutes for an answer and then allow the other guy to follow-up and i think that will take care naturally anti-inflammatory lot of that kind of -- naturally of a lot of that kind of cross checking and those moems where he uses his gut where you needs to intervene or infuse with context. >> don't go away. jaws ahead -- jus ahead of the debate, we'll have brand-new poll numbers.
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also, our live coverage of the 2016 fall presidential debate next. since we're live at hofstra university, let's look at campus craziness that has reached this campus. stay tuned. these goofy glasses. yeah. well, we gotta hand it to fedex. they've helped make our e-commerce so easy, and now we're getting all kinds of new customers. i know. can you believe we're getting orders from canada, ireland... this one's going to new zealand. new zealand? psst. ah, false alarm. hey! you guys are gonna scare away the deer! idiots... providing global access for small business. fedex. if you have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, isn't it time to let the real you shine through? introducing otezla (apremilast). otezla is not an injection or a cream. it's a pill that treats plaque psoriasis differently.
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>> welcome back. we're about 90 minutes away from the first 2016 fall presidential debate. we're at hofstra university
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campus here at hempstead, new york. the political media have swarmed and they are ready for a bare nukled brawl. let's take a look at polls that show that real clear politics average so close. a new bloomberg poll of likely voters nationally puts donald trump two points ahead of clinton in a four-way race. the quinnipiac has clinton ahead by one point. and a new poll has clinton up 4 points in a four-way race and final this new abc "washington post" poll has clinton ahead two points in a four-way race. all of these polls are well within their margins of error showing the race is essentially a toss-up. let's turn to scott jennings who did political analysis in the white house for president george -- george w. bush. what strikes you? >> it is a jump ball heading into the first debate.
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a lot of movement in these polling numbers tonight is stickal noise because it's inside of a margin of error. donald trump has moved this thing down to a tie going into the first debate. so it's a huge opportunity for him tonight to try to get over the hump. he's never really gotten over the hump. he got it to a tie, but to get over the hump, he needs a presidential moment tonight in this debate and to look presidential and so that's what he's looking to do. for clinton, she's trying to arrest donald trump's momentum right now. she's been sliding for the last several weeks. if you like college basketball, i sort of liken it to a team that was up a little bit at the half and the other team is on a 12-2 run. they are trying to get a defensive stop and make a couple of buckets to get this game back going in their favor. that's where clinton is. the crowd is into it for trump. she's got to get on it because he's moving right now. >> what factors in your judgment favor trump? >> well, tonight, the onus is on hillary clinton to articulate why she's in this race. she's expected to have command of the facts. she's expected to have command
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of policy, but what she really lacks right now is a message about why she's in the race, what drives her, what is her passion. people know why donald trump is in the race, and so what helps donald trump tonight is all the pressure is on hillary clinton. the polling shows she's slipping nationally -- >> scott, are you saying that people know why donald trump is in the race because he has the slogan "make america great again" or what exactly do you mean by that? >> i think people know why he's in the race because of immigration. i think people know why he's in the race because of simple way he arctic cue lats his policies. there's not any mistaking among his supporters why he's running. trump shows passion on the issues he talks about. clinton does not. she tends to speak very lawyerly and precise. she doesn't articulate very well about terrorism. a lot of issues trip her up and give people pause why she's in the race. that's her challenge tonight.
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he's really good in articulating his ideas. >> what factors in your judgment favor mrs. clinton? >> what favors hillary tonight, there's probably not a policy question you could think of she's not been asked before. she's going to be able to handle the most complicated topics the mad -- moderator can think of. trump can be stumped if hillary clinton plays it right and the moderator asks a question about something that's relatively complicated or you would have a better handle of if you had held a political office. the challenge is how do you use it to stump trump. >> trump has been the most explosive of candidates, the most colorful, the most flamboyant in some ways. would he be served by being anything but that tonight? >> i think donald trump needs to find his presidential moment. i think this is not about policy for him tonight as much as it is allowing people to visualize
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whether they can see him in the oval office. can they see him as a president? calling people names, losing your temper, bullying hillary clinton, that's not a good look for donald trump tonight. i suspect hillary clinton will try to bait him into that and try to get back to her message on temperament. he needs to not take the bait. he needs to look presidential. look the part. that's his challenge this evening. >> scott, thanks very much. we're here as we've noted at hofstra university in long island, new york, which is actually the first subject in tonight's edition of campus craziness. -off tra students on campus may have seen this trigger warning which is posted for an mtv election event in the school's student union. the sign warnings if you feel triggering please know there are resources to support you. we sent a producer to investigate the sign and they found another trigger warning which was quickly removed as
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soon as we took the picture. students at the university of wisconsin madison are outrage for a plan for a pick up spot for amazon delivers in a prominent uw building. they planned to lease space at uw's historic red gym which is home to the campus multicultural center among other things. one student said the building is a safe space for students and, quote, to put amazon in there, it does not go in with the mission of the red gym in trying to create a student inclusivity space. a resident adviser at the university university of kansas was told not to incorporate an image of a gorilla in a jungle theme decoration because it wasn't inclusive. a school official warned the resident adviser that gorillas represent a masculine image and
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stereotypes could trigger students. the assistant housing director does not speak for the university is what we were told. also at the university of kansas, a meeting of the school's conservative young americas foundation deinvolved into a shouting match when it was interrupt by protesters. >> we deserve benefits because you enslaved us for 400 years. it's called accommodation. your ancestors and you still reap the benefits. >> protesters are upset because the president of the school is young americas foundation group criticized the planned protest on facebook. as we come to you live from hofstra, we want to hear from you, so if you have a campus craziness story, be sure to let us know. email us. campus craziness at fox news.com. we appreciate hearing from you. we will be hearing who won the debate for the next 13 days after the debate.
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our live coverage at hofstra continues next. hillary clinton and donald trump will take the stage in just about 90 minutes. stay right here with fox news all night long. i'm jamie foxx for verizon. in the nation's largest independent study by rootmetrics, again, verizon is the number one network. hi, i'm jamie foxx for sprint. and i'm jamie foxx for t-mobile. (both) and we're just as good. really? only verizon was ranked number one nationally in data, reliability, text and call and speed. yeah. and you're gonna fist pump to that? get out of my sight. (announcer vo) unlimited isn't a good deal if it's on a cutrate network. switch now and get our best deal. 20 gigs and four lines for only 160. all on america's best network. it's a performance machine. engineering... with this degree of intelligence... it's a supercomputer. with this grade of protection... it's a fortress. and with this standard of luxury... it's an oasis. introducing the completely redesigned e-class.
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...means delivering promises. od. helping the world keep promises. tonight's debate here from hofstra university is certainly one of the most highly anticipated events in recent political history. some say the viewership numbers could come close to super bowl numbers. up to 100 million people. what will be the major stories tomorrow and who decides the debate winner? our panel is back. >> rick, i guess there's nothing scientific about judging a debate winner, is there? >> no. it's not even close. i think it used to be that whatever happened on stage 24, 46, 72 hours later, you kind of gel. it may be that all of this gets covered on twitter and social
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media within the first 45 minutes of this debate, the memes and themes could be picked off could be the story. >> sometimes, heidi, it's the sound bite that gets used more than the full debate, isn't it? >> right. that's what we saw, for example, we're seeing a lot of parallels being made to the year 2000 when al gore made his fateful sigh and the immediate after math of the debate. >> you are talking about where he walk over to where george w. bush was standing on the debate stage. >> i'm talking about the sigh. these debates can become defined by singular moments. it's not just even in the first 30 minutes they say well maybe it's within the first 30 minutes they get some of their best shots in. these singular moments can define a debate. when we were discussing this, in the immediate after math of the debate there were more people who thought on line and constant
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polling that gore had won, when the public saw that replayed over and over again and the news media weighed in, depressions changed -- impressions changed. >> sometimes it can be impressive but sometimes it doesn't win the debate. whatever else in the 90 minutes we're not going to remember any more than 2 or 3 moments like that. the campaign needs to prepare that. they know they have to try out a couple of moves and a zinger here and there. >> think of 1984, walter mondale, i was covering it, clearly bested ronald reagan at their first debate in louisville. in the second debate, reagan got it all back i will not let my opponents youth and experience against him. i remember mondale's face.
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he laughed. i could see in his eyes that he knew what happened. that was that reagan had escaped the talk that had come after the first debate about whether reagan was in one correspondent's immortal words, okay. he seemed to be okay. that was the end of it. >> it's to come off at spontaneous. >> spontaneous lines well rehearsed. >> get it down pat. >> you know from everything that we've learned from hillary clinton debate be preparations that she's probably has 101 lines to respond to whatever trump shows up tonight. so you kind of wonder about the spontaneity factor with her. i think that could be one of things that helps her if she does allow herself to go off script a little bit tonight and maybe debating this unconventional candidate. that may be one of the surprises. >> it's a live event. whatever you plan, it's personal dynamic. it's whatever the moderators bring up.
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you try to not to make it forced. this is hard. >> i often wonder how you would -- you got to have some command of the facts and you have to have some good one-liners ready and you have to be focused in the moment and i think it's impossible. >> it depends. they have very different missions tonight and with trump -- i spoke about krin ton. -- clinton. i think with trump, the key for him is just remembering, remembering, remembering, that the case that she's trying to prosecute against him all hinges on temperament. it's the umbrella that she's using. he cannot take that bait. it's 90 minutes. he's got to get through it without getting personal with her. the case that she's prosecuting against him and also in terms of the debate history of men who have debated her in the past. >> thank you. the big debate night is here but controversy has already started and the candidates have not even taken the stage yet. you are not going to believe
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okay. this is a live look at the debate stage where donald trump and hillary clinton will be in just over one hour from now. note the colors. just to show you how divided this country is, even the set decoration and the colors are under scrutiny. this is a tweet. fje 600 tweeted to me, it is unfair the debate studio is painted only blue. it should be red and blue to fairly represent each party. s kerry replied, who cares about the color. this started a rain reaction -- chain reaction of replies, quoted, it should be red, white, and blue, show respect for america and show respect for the
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american flag. mary tweeted in reply to that. if they had painted it red, white, and blue, some arrogant fool would probably kneel on one knee during the debate. the red white, and blue only became used in the 2000 election. karl rove and joe trippi are back. it used to be that we call the republican party blue and the democrats red. that changed in 2000. anybody remember how? >> it happened when tim russert had a map and divided the country up in blue democrat and red republican. it stuck there thereafter. he also incidentally that night used a white board. i've stolen that. >> and he did his calculations on that. everybody thought it's low tech, it won't work and it worked light crazy. joe, your thoughts on the absurdity?
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>> it's absurd. it shows you how poll larized and how everybody is dividing up even about the color of the stage of the debate. this one has got a lot of passion on both sides, and you know, people are revved up. >> i'm shocked. >> the second advantage that joe party's has gotten on this debate stage. if you'll notice that eagle over the podium, he's looking to the left. >> that's true. >> so once again a subtle statement. >> a couple of us worked on that. >> kidding. >> look at the eagle, he's looking -- the eagle is looking to the eagle's right. >> stage left. >> it's the same eagle that was there in 2000. >> it has been the history of these debates, most of them, that people came out of the debate thinking the candidate they liked going in had done better. why, if at all, will this one be any different, joe? >> because, i mean, that's true. most people will be watching to cheer their candidate on, but there will be ten, 20 points of
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people out there who really -- they may think they have decided and they may be truly undecided but they will be watching this debate and i really do think there are several groups of people, we talk about it earlier, college educated whites, suburban whites, that's what the fight is over tonight. those are the people that are movable, if they move one way or the other, it's going to -- this debate could have a big impact on the election. >> a group of political scientists wrote a book called "timeline of presidential elections". they showed the trend lane before debates is confirmed by all debates. >> which is that? >> 1984. first debate, ronald reagan looked bad, dropped eight points but recovers in the second debate. >> he never fell behind. >> no. >> actually, he was never really close to being behind, was he? >> that's right. but their fundamental point is
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for exactly the reason you said, people ten to think their candidate, even if they had a lousy performance, they still get their support. two reasons it might be different this year. one is the high number of undecideds, and the highest number since 1982, and we have the most unpopular candidates running for president. barry gold walter running against johnson. her negatives in the real clear politics average, 55, his 58. >> that's high. no doubt about it. i can't help but remember also the 1980 debate between reagan and carter, the only debate and it's widely been thought that reagan won it and with it the election and so relaxed and calm, when carter was rattling off, there you go again. that was so easy and mild. >> remember, there were two debates before that with ronald
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reagan and john anderson, you look at those. american people lookinged at that that guy looks like a president. >> reagan consistently had amazing debate performances. i paid for that microphone. he did it. >> thanks guy. coming up before the big debate and the possibility of insults, let's read mean tweets aimed at me. that's next. but don't change the channel. debate will come to you live from hofstra university right here on fox news channel. s [ "on the road again," by willie nelson ] ♪ on the road again [ rear alert sounds ] [ music stops ] ♪ just can't wait to get on the road again ♪ [ front assist sounds ] [ music stops ] [ girl laughs ] ♪ on the road again ♪ like a band of gypsies we go down the highway ♪
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. now, it's your turn to be heard. here is some of the feedback i'm getting from the twitter verse. thanks for putting me to sleep with the monotone voice of yours, dog. kos mows says you don't look bad tonight, just looks like someone beat you up with a bag of nickels. brit said disregard those diaper
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rash adolescents. brit, i think you're hot. but i'm 70 and have had two glasses of wine. silly brit hume has wrapped his arms around real donald trump the stink of stooped has made woosy. it's so obvious you are in the tank for hillary. is she paying you? keep the feedback coming. tweet me or email me. the o'reilly factor is next here at hofstra. if you haven't gotten sick of me yet, i'll be on throughout the night with my analysis. we will live he with the quote. the taxpayers are sending congressmen on expensive trips abroad. it might be worth it, except they keep coming back. we'll be back tomorrow at 7:00 eastern. don't forget, o'reilly is next
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right here. that is followed immediately by tonight's debate. good night and stay tuned. hi, i'm bill o'reilly reporting tonight from hofstra university, long island, new york, and you can tell it's like the nfl out here, all right. clinton versus trump i think that's what we're doing on the debate stage. that's the subject. 90-minute debate, six 15 minute segments should get under way in about an hour. the three general topics tonight, america's direction, achieving prosperity, securing america. those are very general topics. can happen. you can say anything in those

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