tv Special Report With Bret Baier FOX News November 7, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm PST
>> is that live? >> it is live at midnight. if i'm going to be up, be up with us. we will see you back here tomorrow on the big day, election day. "special report" is next. good evening. welcome to our brand-new america's election headquarters studio in new york. i'm bret baier. this is a fox news alert. with just hours now until polls open across the country, no one is taking anything for granted. hillary clinton and donald trump are both working double shifts, appearing at as many events as they can cram into their schedules. we are getting one last look at how this race stands with our final fox news polls of the election season. clinton leads trump by four percentage points, 48 to 44 in the four-way survey. that's up from two last week. the numbers are the same in the head to head, the four-point clinton lead is up from one point last week.
here is what we have for the electoral college preview. we are shifting north carolina from lean democrat to tossup tonight. we are moving arizona, iowa and utah from tossup to lean republican. nevada goes from tossup to lean democrat tonight. clinton is projected at this point to get 274 electoral votes. that's four more than she needs to win the presidency. trump is at 215 with 49 tossups. again, a lot of these states are very close. we have fox team coverage tonight. jennifer griffin is with the clinton team in philadelphia where the clintons and the obamas will hold a huge rally tonight. we begin with chief political correspondent carl cameron following the trump campaign in manchester, new hampshire, where trump and pence will appear this evening. hello. >> reporter: donald trump down four points in the latest fox poll is charging ahead with a very busy schedule of must-win states today.
>> in one day, we are going to win the great state of florida and we are going to take back the white house. >> reporter: from the beginning, trump has called florida where a democrat won the last two presidential elections and polls show a dead heat right now a must sarasota, he cast his no-holds-barr no-holds-barred. >> it's been some campaign. they say it's the single greatest movement politically speaking in the history of this country. >> reporter: in north carolina, a red state he must defend where polls also show a tossup, trump predicted victories in all of his targeted states. >> we're winning ohio. we're winning iowa. we're winning, we think, new hampshire. >> reporter: trump listed blue pennsylvania as a priority from the start, often warning supporters to look out for
fraud. polls give clinton a slim edge. when it comes to presidential temperament, 60% of likely voters nationwide say clinton has it. 61% say trump does not. 63% say clinton is qualified to be president. 37% disagree. trump is upside down, 45% think trump is qualified, 55% don't. trump has turned the fbi's conclusion yesterday for a second time to not charge clinton in the e-mail scandal into a get out the vote rally cry for tomorrow. >> right now she's being protected by a rigged system. you can't review 650,000 e-mails in eight days. hillary clinton is guilty. she knows it. the fbi knows it. and now it's up to the american people to deliver justice at the ballot box. we're going to win. >> reporter: fbi computers are powerful enough to search millions of documents in a week. for clinton to have deleted e-mails after congress demanded them, he says, it should have
been prosecuted. >> what happened? that's a crime. you don't need the new stuff. she shouldn't be allowed to run. >> reporter: trump has a rally planned here in new hampshire tonight. this the state where he won his first primary nomination battle. then it's to michigan again tonight for what is likely to be a midnight rally in a state he hopes tomorrow could help put him in the white house. >> carl cameron with the trump campaign. carl, thank you. hillary clinton's work day is far from over. she will host a midnight rally in raleigh, north carolina. and there will be another huge event shortly in philadelphia, featuring the clinton family and the obamas. jennifer griffin is there tonight. good evening. >> reporter: good evening. the clintons will be joined by bruce springsteen, john bon jovi along with president and mrs. obama here in front of independence hall where, of course the constitution and declaration of independence were adopted.
a symbolic backdrop to this hard fought campaign. 12 hours, three states, four rallies. it must be the closing hours of a presidential campaign. secretary clinton is crisscrossing the battleground states taking nothing for granted. >> if you give me the honor of being your president, i'm going to do everything i can to get this country and everybody in it back up. >> reporter: earlier, it was pennsylvania, different state, similar sentiment. >> we can do this. we don't have to accept a dark and divisive vision for america. >> reporter: it's hands on deck for the democrats standard bearer, deploying the biggest names to where it matters most, to north carolina. >> so nice to be back in wilmington. >> reporter: to florida. >> vote. get your friends out. every single vote counts. >> reporter: and new hampshire for the man whose job she wants, it was his swan song. >> i have one question for you, new hampshire. are you fired up? ready to go?
fired up? ready to go? fired up? ready to go? let's go finish what we started. let's elect hillary clinton. >> reporter: the latest fox polls showed clinton cobbled together the obama coalition, winning by 12 points among women, 85 points among blacks, 33 points among latinos and 16 points among millennials. there are concerns that black voters won't turn out. the campaign released a new online video telling african-american voters they have the power to, quote, stop trump. >> we know the progress we have made. despite the forces of opposition. >> reporter: on the last day of what has set a new standard for akry moanous campaigns, clinton started her day with talk of healing america's wounds. >> these divides that have been not only exposed but exacerbated by the campaign on the other side are ones that we really do have to bring the country together. >> reporter: now it's up to the
voters to decide if she will get the chance. senior clinton officials confirm the campaign lawyer sent a cease and desist letter to a number of broadcast outlets demanding that they stop running ads suggesting that clinton was still under investigation by the fbi. that cease and desist order targeting pacs and super pacs. >> jennifer griffin with the clinton campaign. thank you. the clinton team is breathing a little easier after the fbi direct director's announcement yesterday. is hillary clinton in the clear with the fbi or congress? ed henry tells us where we are right now. >> reporter: about the only thing that trump and clinton camps can agree on this late in the game is that fbi director james comey muddied the waters multiple times. >> frankly, the investigation has been a hot mess from the beginning. >> it was bizarre he sent that first letter saying that he had some information.
we were glad, obviously, that this was resolved. >> reporter: but that's where the two camps diverge again with advisers to hillary clinton insisting she's now in the clear and poised to be elected. while donald trump's running mate is reminding voters that the second declaration that he will not recommend clinton be prosecuted over her e-mail server does not change the fact that the fbi chief has said she may have violated the law by being careless with classified information. >> if only for the decades of self-dealing, the politics of personal information, compromising our national security and outright corruption, michigan, we must ensure that hillary clinton is never elected president of the united states of america. >> reporter: former fbi officials are warning that win or lose, hillary and bill clinton's work at the family foundation is still being looked at by the agency. >> techniques that the fbi is
after the aft to use should be going full steam ahead on wednesday. i would expect her and her husband and their team being what they are, they will do their best to navigate comey out of that job. >> reporter: while hillary clinton refused to say in a recent radio interview if she would seek comey's resignation, one of her allies in congress did raise more questions about the fbi director's credibility moving forward. democrat diane feinstein s saying -- while key republicans are already signaling a potential president elect clinton would immediately face new investigations as the gop keeps the heat on comey about whether clinton told the truth to the select benghazi committee last year. >> they did not answer the question as to whether or not hillary clinton has committed perjury. >> reporter: a former fbi
official noted that comey's letter yesterday only mentioned clinton. as the fbi goes through the laptop, huma abedin and others could still be in hot water. >> it sounds like new wikileaks e-mails out show some angst at the campaign about the foundation? >> reporter: look, tonight the clinton foundation is still allowed right now to take money from foreign governments around the world despite allegations of pay to play. even though a previous wikileaks dump showed that clinton's chief strategist admitted they were vulnerable on this. an e-mail showing mook had the same kweconcerns in february 20. fast forward to the summer when former president bill clinton said if his wife is elected, they will ban foreign dodonatio. another e-mail writing --
that certainly sounds like they were looking for some sort of a work around. >> ed, thank you. california congressman is chairman of the house democratic caucus. he is a big supporter of hillary clinton's campaign. he joins us from los angeles. thanks for being here. >> thanks. >> your thoughts of the state of this race, where it stands and all the things that have transpired over the last couple of days? >> long race. we're about a day away, and i think a lot of us still got the energy to make sure we go to the final hour. it's a good way to close for hillary clinton. she's got some momentum building and she's also bringing the country together. i think she's talking like a president elect. we hope everybody gets out to vote, whether you are republican or democrat or independent, get out and vote. make it the pundits aren't the ones that decide the election.
make it so that your vote makes the decision for america where we will go as a democracy. >> do you think as many democrats have been out saying with press releases that the fbi director's additional letter to congress is the end of everything as far as fbi investigations? >> i think most of us knew pretty well, given all the reporting that had been done originally in this investigation, that we weren't going to learn a lot new. of course, the second notice by director comey pretty much confirmed that. that doesn't take away from the fact that he stepped in it the first time he announced the results of the investigation and certainly the second time he stepped into it with this original letter ten or so days ago was when he really caused himself some problems. this final letter cleared that up, made it clear we're moving forward, that nothing has changed from what he first reported that there's no reason to move forward against secretary clinton and that secretary clinton should be able
to move forward like the rest of america. i think for 24 hours to go, i think we're trying to get voters out there. i know that democrats are excited about getting folks out to vote. >> here is former assistant director of the fbi, head of the criminal investigation division up until just a few months ago. >> i think that there have been ongoing investigations by multiple field offices into the foundation, different pieces of the foundation. that those investigations are being coordinated at fbi headquarters. so it's my belief the investigations have been continuing. >> thoughts on that? >> we have been hearing a lot of this stuff for a long time. so far, what we know is that hillary clinton is on her way to becoming the next president. so long as people get out and vote. between now and the close of polls tomorrow, i think a lot of us are going to work hard to get every single person out to vote. clearly, we're going to try to
get folks who want to support secretary clinton and democrats down the ballot. i think everyone should get out of to vote. we have heard all the noise. we know what has been said out there. what we know is that tomorrow at the end of tomorrow, we elect a president. let's get out and vote. feeling pretty good. momentum with hillary clinton. if you get out there and vote, i think the results will speak for themselv themselves. >> clearly, both campaigns are trying to get these big events to get people to vote. i want to ask you about latino voters. in 2016, 69% of latinos are absolutely certain they will vote in november. down from 77% in 2012. this year, 57% of hispanic voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. that's up from 50% in 2012. what do you say about that population and what is happening, what you are seeing with early vote and what democrats expect come tomorrow? >> i have been working really hard over the last year to reach
out to voters of latino heritage to get them out to vote. what i am hearing is they are coming out. look at the numbers in florida. you are seeing remarkable turnout, probably double the number of latinos voting in 2016 that voted in 2012 in early v e voting that's been allowed. in colorado -- i was in colorado. a large turnout. much of it due to the latino voter turnout. nevada, clark county has some 72,000 more votes cast in 2016 than in 2012. how goes clark county, goes the state. much of is that due to latinos. what i'm finding is latinos will come out in big numbers. remember, a lot of those latino voters that are coming out are never asked in the polls what will you do, how will you vote in they're not considered likely voters. all that population that you are seeing coming out aren't even captured in the polls that have been done for last year and a half. >> obviously, republicans point to good turnout in north carolina in early votes as well.
congressman, we appreciate your time tonight ahead of election day. >> thanks. appreciate it. the presidency is the main event on the election day score card. the balance of power in congress is at stake. james rosen has the latest. good evening. >> reporter: for senate republicans the name of the game tomorrow is triage. staunching the loss of blood to prevent the upper chamber from reverting to democratic control or devolving into a 50/50 tie. >> who is that independent voice for them and fight for them and not be a rubber stamp for hillary clinton. >> as she's been trying to back away her support from donald trump, she's been trying to back away a record in washington. >> reporter: the battle for the junior u.s. senate seat in new hampshire, site of the first in the nation primary, could make the granite state a critical factor in our politics in between presidential elections. trailing as recently as the final week of october, kelly ayotte now leads democratic
governor maggie hassan by a little over a point. >> this seems to be shifting a little bit in ayotte's direction. if i had to pick one race, this is the one i would look to to see who controls the senate, here in new hampshire, a lot of independent voters. >> reporter: republicans control the senate with two independents, including vermont's bernie sanders caucusing with democrats. the dems have to pick up five seats to control the chamber. something made easier by virtue of the fact that republicans are defending 24 seats, the democrats only 10. seven republicans are fending off challengers in states that president obama won four years ago. >> donald trump is strong in each of these states. the senators are strong in each of these states. >> reporter: first term republican senators mark kirk of illinois, pat toomey and ron johnson are trailing their opponents. there are tight races in other states.
even some gop pollsters are doubtful the democrats can be held to a net gain of only three seats. >> republicans need everything to go right to hold on to control of the senate. i would say at this point, it's more likely that democrats take the senate. but by a very, very, very narrow margin. >> reporter: a net gain of four seats by the democrats would effectively tie the senate at 50/50. in which case, tie breaking votes will likely be cast by the next vice-president of the united states. as for the house of representatives, few analysts see the democrats picking up the 30 seats they would need to shift the balance of power there. >> james rosen, live in washington. thank you. the justice department says it will send more than 500 staffers to 28 states tomorrow to monitor the polls. that is a 35% reduction from the number four years ago. department officials say personnel will be send to 67 jurisdictions to watch for potential civil rights
violations. the justice department has said its poll watching presence has been curtailed by a 2013 supreme court popinion that gutted a ke provision of the voting rights act. stocks today were up. the dow surges 371. the s&p gained 46. the nasdaq jumped 120. we bring in charles krauthammer to break down the current state of the race 24 hours away from polls closing.
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picture on the national level with our poll, clinton up four. but a lot of these states are getting pretty tight, including pennsylvania, that has -- was very tight. arizona moved to lean republican. north carolina, a flat tossup. utah leaning republican. a lot of these states are very tight. your thoughts of where we are with just hours to go? >> i would add to that list michigan, which has to be tight or you wouldn't have all the principles in the two campaigns in a state that traditionally has been democratic for so long. look, you could theoretically look at all these states, which are extremely tight, and see them going either way. if the majority go to trump, he wins. however, i think -- i don't believe in the national polls even though they don't determine what the outcome is. but what they do tell you is the momentum overall.
if you look at the fox poll specifically, you get the race was wide open. then it got very narrow. it closed. now it appears as if hillary's momentum -- it looks like she stabilized over the weekend. now if anything has had a slight recovery. if that is so, then that would mean that trump, who was rising and had he continued to rise that way and close the gap could have passed her, is likely not in any way probably but likely to have fallen short. that's how i would read the national polls. again, you could run the states any way you want. they are so close that it's theoretically possible they go one way. it's likely they go half and half in which case a republican would not have enough. >> last time i talked to mr. trump in an interview, i said, understanding that you have a lot of optimism, that you
believe that you are going to win, if you don't win, i asked at the end of the interview, what happens to donald trump? does he lead a movement? does he go back to business? take a listen. >> this has been one of the most incredible parts of my life. i mean, there's never been anything like this. i won 42 states. i got the most votes in the history of the republican primary system. most importantly, you look at the movement where they talk stampede. we can't have any more people because of stampede. i really think it's such a hard question. because i love these people. these people are amazing people. these are the people that built this country. these are amazing people. so i would say that i will give you that answer maybe on the 9th. i think what's going to happen -- i think you are going to have an upset, if you call it an upset, because as you know we're doing very well in the polls. >> right now he is speaking in pennsylvania, which is a
traditionally blue state. there you see him there. your thoughts? is donald trump now the de facto leader of the republican party no matter what happens? >> i think he is. this is not a michael dukakis -- he can win. but let's assume he loses. he's not walking away. he's not a bob dole who will retire. this is a man who as he says created a movement out of nothing. he basically fashioned a populist faction in the republican party, took over the party at least in this cycle. and then the question will be, is he goes to walk away and become a businessman? i doubt it. it's very hard to do. the fact is, he will be the power broker. i see the party splitting in two, at least in theory. the populist element that he is now creating, and mobilized, winning more republican votes in the primaries than any candidate in history. he will have won at least 40%
somewhere in the 40s of the national electorate. yes, he is a force. the other side i think will be led by paul ryan, representing the traditional party, the reaganite party, and conservative party. which is different from populist. if trump wants -- which i think he will. he will have created something. why will he leave it behind? he leads that faction and can become the de facto leader. i think the test is going to be, can he bring down paul ryan, who will be -- if trump loses, will be scapegoated to some extent in the laws and will be the leader of the rival faction. if he is able to get behind a movement to deny ryan the speakership, he becomes a de facto leader and the force in the party for the next years while they're in the winderneld if that's the outcome. >> it's going to be interesting
either way. donald trump says he is going to win. no doubt about it. he is in scranton, pennsylvania, traditionally blue state, speaking as we head to break. on the other side, how we fight series concludes with a look at the iran nuclear deal. donald trump in scranton. let's listen in. >> so high i won't tell you what it is. it's very high. all 67 counties in pennsylvania, most of which i won in the primaries -- right? almost all. almost every one of them. are losing obamacare insurers next year. that puts you in a bad position. the truth is, not going to matter. because we are going to repeal it and replace it. not going to matter. don't worry about it. so you can leave here happy. premiums are surging, companies are leaving. insurers are fleeing. doctors are quitting. and deductibles are going through the roof. yet crooked hillary clinton wants to double down on
obamacare, making it even more expensive than it is right now. i'm asking for your vote so we can repeal and replace obamacare and save health care for every family in pennsylvania. it was happening so fast. somehow it felt like everything was moving in slow motion. if i didn't react, things could have gotten messy in a hurry. i mean just got that sweet ride with a great rate from navy federal. i was not about to let anything happen to her. just looking out for my wingman. he's still in training. open to the armed forces, the dod and their families. navy federal credit union. i found a better deal on prescriptions. we found lower co-pays... ...and a free wellness visit. new plan...same doctor. i'm happy.
now to news overseas. iraqi kurdish fighters exchanged fire with isis terrorists. the kurds advance from two directions to try to retake a town east of mosul held by isis terrorists. greg palkot reports on a major victory but not one without cost. >> reporter: peshmerga forces are claiming a big win over i s isis.
>> translator: the battle is going very well, thank god. we have made big gains. the peshmerga keep advancing. >> reporter: isis launched five car bombs at the fighters. the kurds claim they capture order killed over 100 militants. u.s. air strikes and special force operatives helped out. the town has to be cleared of bombs. in mosul, the fight against isis intensifies. iraqi troops are waging urban warfare. an american medic volunteer can't believe it. >> the huge urban environment. imagine trying to go into brooklyn or charlotte, north carolina, where you have huge buildings. imagine every door, window, rock, hole, that kind of gunfire can come out at any moment. >> reporter: as the refugee outflow grows, 33,000 have fled and there will be more. with the launching of a second
parallel operation against a syrian isis stronghold of raqqah. >> the removal of the cancer from the caliphate is the next step in our military campaign plan. >> reporter: there's not a second to lose. iraqi officials revealing that they have found a mass grave south of mosul with some 100 decapitated bodies. they say at the hands of isis. >> greg, thank you. now we turn to the final segment in our how we fight series. to president obama's supporters, the iran nuclear deal was perhaps the crowning achievement of his foreign policy. to critics, it's an ongoing disaster that our military and our country they say will pay for in the future. an examination of those competing views in tonight's report. in response to an attempt by the senate to have a say in the iran nuclear deal, the president set up what became known as the
anti-war room, to promote the pact. that effort was led by one of his top aides, ben rhodes. who is ben rhodes? >> ben rhodes is a fiction writer. so far as i can tell with no military experience and frankly no strategic foreign policy experience. >> he was the point man on selling the deal. it was very much centralized in the white house using political allies in washington. >> opponents charge that in selling the iranian nuclear deal, white house used those political allies to shape a narrative that allowed the president to scircumvent oversig oversight. >> we had iraq war. we don't want that again. it's a new path forward and we should seize it. >> critics of the iran deal try to portray the people who support it as puppets who were
manipulated by a deputy national security adviser. complete nonsense. >> the president of the anti-nuclear group helped the white house shape and deliver their message. >> on this iran deal, we were in alignment. and that's what outside experts do. i don't promote politicians. i promote policies. >> on january 16, 2016, secretary of state john kerry announced iran met their required commitments and the nuclear deal officially called jcpoa, or joint comprehensive plan of action, was a go. had the iranians really fulfilled their required commitments at that time? >> they had not. and they still have not fulfilled their commitments under the agreement. the primarily one was to come completely clean about the declared iranian nuclear facilities. >> there's some things the iranians have done in the deal that are actually positive. they have reduced the number of
centrifuges they have operating. they had over 10,000 kilograms. they have shipped all but 300 of that out of the country. they did those things. >> did the obama administration lie to congress in. >> multiple times. they concealed information from us. senator tom cotton and i discovered the secret side deals. >> one of the deals allowed iran to inspect itself, to take two different videotapes of one inspector taking samples while the other person videotapes it. it's like the blair witch inspect project. >> is there anything that is good out of this deal? >> i can't think of a thing. >> not one? >> i can't think of a thing that has put america in a better position as a result of this deal. >> the president may think this is a legacy item for himself. i think it's a can a at that time trophy for u.s. secure, not just now, but long term in terms
of the pursuit of a nuclear weapon. >> if a republican president had negotiated this agreement with iran, they would have named an airport after him. this was a deal that shrink wraps iran's nuclear program so it's not going to threaten us for at least 15 years. >> it's been reported that president obama suggested numerous times that by doing this deal, that iran would eventually moderate its non-nuclear behavior. do you think that's happened? >> just the opposite. every single action the iranians have talken has been bolder and starker than the ones they took before the agreement. >> has the support for hezbollah hamas dropped off? >> if anything, greater. >> support for assad >> none. >> alliance with russia? >> stronger. >> panetta, secretary of defense from 2011 to 2013, supports the president's iran nuclear deal but says the president's policy
lacks one crucial ingredient. >> what is missing is that larger strategy of containing iran and making very clear that even though we have negotiated this agreement, we are not going to allow iran to be able to exert their influence in that region. you have to deal with them from a position of strength. not from a position of weakness. >> and there are those who believe that without that american led containment strategy, a middle eastern war is all but inevitable. >> president obama said since the nuclear deal was finalized that he believes that saudi arabia and other countries in the middle east will have to share the region with iran. he called for what he said would be a cold peace. i suspect it's more likely to be a hot war. >> many fear the hot war may involve the weapons the president spent more than seven
years trying to control. >> it's not going to appear immediately. it's going to go nuclear inside of a ten-year time frame. anybody who regards iran as a threat thinks saudi arabia is going to want to be ready for that nuclear iran when it arrives. >> america's middle eastern allies also worry that as a result of president owe be a ma obama's policy, the american military will no longer be there. >> in the capital of the middle east, american power is viewed at diminished. it's not that they are not as good. but our willingness has been questioned throughout the middle east. >> america's willingness was questioned again when it was revealed that iran hadn't just seized and humiliated american sailors, but they had detained four american civilians who were released the same day the administration gave the iranians $400 million in cash. >> we do not pay ransom for
hostages. >> he is adamant they did not pay cash ransom for american hostages. what was that? >> it was ransom. the american people know it. president obama has made very bad decisions for the last eight years. it's empowered our enemies like iran, it has weakened the united states. >> that concludes our how we fight series. you can be sure we will continue to cover the armed forces and the great americans who fill its ranks. they're all volunteers. their service and sacrifice are something we as a country must always cherish. we are in the final hours of the campaign before voters go to the polls. we will talk about what to expect when the panel joins me next. i'm my team's #1 fan. yay. sports. i've never been #1 in anything until i put these babies on. now we're on a winning streak and i'm never taking them off. do i know where i'm going? absolutely.
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vote for your families. vote for your futures. vote on the issues that matter to you because they are on the ballot, not just my name and my opponent's name. >> you have one day to make every dream you ever dreamed for your country come true. you have one magnificent chance to beat the corrupt system and deliver justice. do not let this opportunity slip away. >> the candidates today, as you look at the chandelier here in the big studio -- pretty cool looking. here is where the candidates were today before bringing in the panel. crisscrossing the country. they had multiple stops. there's the trump campaign. you can see all of the stops, including some stops in traditionally blue states.
there you see -- let's go to the clinton folks, not only the candidate, but all of her surrogates. there you see some stops in florida, virginia, north carolina, pennsylvania and new hampshire. michigan as well. they are spending some time in north carolina with a big event tonight. the latest fox news polls have hillary clinton up nationally as we showed you earlier by four. that is a shift. if you look at the independents in this, it has been a bit of a shift towards clinton in recent days, as you see there. three points. one point up for donald trump. just moments ago, the real clear politics average of polls in florida changed. it has trump up .02 -- no .2. there you go. it has just changed in north carolina. it has donald trump up 1 point.
that's a shift. let's bring in our panel. steve haze, monica crowley and phillip bump. okay, let's start with the presidential race. phil, what do you think of these polls, where we're standing, and what looks like this electoral college map as we head into tomorrow? >> i think the thing people are going to want to pay attention to tomorrow is what's happening in flo are florida, north carol pennsylvania. all of those shifts that you talked about, we have known that those states are going to be close, those movements up and down. what that reinforces is it's an all-out push in those states, both florida and north carolina have early vote numbers that i think are important to keep in mind and may affect what we see as the eventual outcome. >> but florida, clun tinton fol say they feel comfortable. hispanic vote. in north carolina, the trump people are touting that early
vote. >> absolutely. part of that is because the african-american vote in north carolina has dropped since 2012. watching those four states, we know that if donald trump wins all four of those states, he will win the presidency. he needs to win three. it's not clear right now -- it's impossible to tell based on what the polls say how he's going to do. >> monica? >> anybody who tells you they know what's going to happen tomorrow night is lying to you. nobody has any idea. the reason is -- >> we can try. >> right. the reason really nobody has a handle on this -- this includes donald trump and it includes mrs. clinton, is what we are seeing across the world, including in the united states, are these very significant realignments. this is likely to be a realigning election. we have all kinds of cross currents happening where you have donald trump campaigning actively in blue states. the industrial rust belt, across the midwest where he is doing extremely well, where republicans traditionally have not. mrs. clinton is spending time
and resources in these states. she is seeing it slip away from her. nobody has a handle on this. i would say that perhaps donald trump's momentum going into this last weekend may have been arrested a little bit by the fbi's latest announcement. i would say in the waning days and last two weeks, donald trump has done something really smart. he has kept his closing argument simple. and consistent with the nation's core values. talking about law and order, economic populism, a strong national defense and defeating a corrupt, rigged system. i think that's worked to his benefit and may end up helping him close the deal. >> steve, we saw a little bit of that speech in pennsylvania where he focused on obamacare in his close there in scranton. >> yeah. i think his supporters will say, this is the pivot we were waiting for the election to take place. look, i think both monica and phillip are right. trump's supporters will point to the poll in iowa.
it has donald trump plus seven. they will say if donald trump is up seven in iowa, you can point to places like wisconsin and minnesota where democrats were only one or two points behind in 2012, from behind those the premise of donald trump's candidacy was that he would increase the white vote. there were missing white voters that he would get more out than mitt romney. donald trump getting 54% of the white vote that was 17 points better than hillary clinton. if you look back at 2012 mitt romney defeated. romney was actually doing better among white voters than trump, at least according to these polls: when you think about honest and trustworthy numbers and you look at these numbers and you see that donald trump is 37% not trustworthy
60% but hillary clinton is at 33% and 64%. here we are ready for election day and this is the honest and trustworthy numbers. >> it certainly is an unusual situation for america to be voting between two presidential candidates who most of america dislikes. that's the situation we find ourselves in. i think it's important, the thing that we have seen in "the washington post" polling that we do with abc news overtime the temperament number, however is, a huge gulf between the two candidates. the fox news poll reinforced that today. a lot of people don't think donald trump has the teachment to be president. that's the main reason when people say he is not qualified to be president that they say that i think that that is probably the reason he has this apparent ceiling in the polling more so than honesty. >> we want to talk about the balance of power in congress. that, obviously is, a huge story line for tomorrow night. u.s. senate hangs in the balance. some people say the house could hang in the balance. most will tell you that they probably will not lose control of the house and that paul ryan will be
speaker come the next term of congress. races that you think are interesting or to focus on, steve? >> well, we have spent so much time talking about the senate and governor's races i thought i would pick a couple white house races. one is in wisconsin in 2008. >> you picked the race in wisconsin? >> hard to imagine. i could have picked johnson-feingold. johnson 8. retiring a never trumper representative stepping down from congress. mike gallagher, a former retired marine captain and ph.d. candidate in international relations at georgetown. very smart and sophisticated he should win that race on tomorrow night. mitt romney won the district 51, 48. if mike gallagher is in trouble it's a sign that hillary clinton is probably having a good night. the other race i picked was liz cheney likely to win in wyoming in the at large statewide district i think the reason those are interesting both as gauges of what might happen
tomorrow night but also if will is a new republican majority in congress or continued republican majority in the house, i think you would look to those two as potential leaders of a national security wing of that freshman class. >> okay, monica, your choice. >> first my analysis of the house, republicans keep control of the house there might be a net loss for republicans between 8 and 15 seats. the race that i'm really going to watch tomorrow night is the pennsylvania senate race. the republican incumbent pat toomey running against the democratic challenger katie. the most recent polling has them essentially tied. this is even as donald trump runs about 2 to 4 points behind mrs. clinton on the presidential level. i am watching this race because pennsylvania obviously critical for the presidential race. electoral vote donald trump needs in order to win. if toomey is doing well, that could be because donald trump is creating some significant gusts for him. the other reason this is important is pat toomey is a political leader for the conservative movement. his re-election is important to the future of that
movement. s about because the g.o.p. majority in the senate is peril. vital to maintaining that control. >> your choice has a sound bite setup and because, in north carolina, there has been one issue that's really been interesting in that race and that is this bathroom bill. >> when we lost the nba all star game, the ncaa and the acc championships, it hurt north carolina's economy and our national reputation. >> does the desire to be politically correct outweigh our children's privacy and safety? not on my watch. >> looks like it's pretty tight there that north carolina governor's race. >> incumbent governor pat mccrory is behind in the real clear politics polling average. the reason why this is important race to watch the dems have gotten obliterated at the state level for the past few cycles. this is really a test of this is a governor who a lot of democrats feel about
strongly because of the bill you just saw and also because of restrictions on early voting back to the presidential race to some extent. presidential election year the democrats should do well and get all their folks out there yet mccrory is only down by two points. this is a race the democrats should win if they're putting all their resources in it and right now it still looks like a race. >> panel thanks very much. take a lock at. so funnellier lighter moments of the 016 election season when we come back. ♪
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thanks for tnorfolk!around and i just wanted to say, geico is proud to have served the military for over 75 years! roger that. captain's waiting to give you a tour of the wisconsin now. could've parked a little bit closer... it's gonna be dark by the time i get there. geico. proudly serving the military for over 75 years. finally tonight as the race for the white house winds down we are left with memories from an election season that has been like no other. let's take a look at some of the lighter moments. >> dr. ben carson.
>> it's rubio. >> woo! okay. >> businessman, donald trump. [ applause ] >> he referred to my hands a as small. something else must be small. i guarantee you there is no problem. i guarantee you. okay. moving on. >> please clap. [ laughter ] >> please clap. we're pulling double duty tonight join us 11:30 eastern time special election eve eedition of "special report." thanks for inviting us into your home tonight. that is it for this "special report," fair, balanced and unafraid, election day tomorrow. "on the record" with brit hume starts right now. ♪ ♪
hello, and welcome to this election eve edition of "on the record" from new york. i'm brit hume. the national polling average and our newly revised electoral college score card point in differing directions tonight. the map looks better for mr. trump while the polls look a bit better for mrs. clinton. the real clear politics average of 13 national polls shows her with a 2.9 point lead in two way race and 2.3 in a four way. betting odds better 4 to 1. things look brighter for mr. trump in today's latest edition of our electoral map. >> brit, it is time for a final look at our electoral college score card heading into tomorrow's election. several key shifts this race now tighter than it's ever been befe.