tv Americas Election HQ FOX News November 8, 2016 3:00pm-10:01pm PST
>> we love this country. >> what makes it great is that now -- >> america decides. >> we will unify our party to win this election. >> i love to win. we're going to win for the country. >> election night, 2016. it all starts now. what a campaign it's been. and it is not over yet. the polls are set to close. >> and the votes will be counted. who will be the next president of the united states? a question 15 months in the making. >> it all started in cleveland more than a year ago. >> is there anyone on stage who is unwilling tonight to pledge your support to the eventual nominee of the republican party? mr. trump? >> you call women you don't like fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals. >> only rosie o'donnell.
>> from more than 20 candidates down to 2. >> when everybody's down, i'm the only one left. >> from the primaries. >> we are going to solve the problems. >> this campaign is about creating a political revolution. >> to the conventions. ♪ we are the champions my friends ♪ ♪ i want to see you be brave >> fox news has been there. >> we'll see you in the conventions, right? >> a "factor" world exclusive, first national world television interview with mr. trump after the debate. first time in any situation like this, how did you feel up there? >> well, it was exciting. >> and in the season of firsts, the first presidential debate moderated by a fox news journalist. >> i'm chris wallace of fox news. what's your view on how the constitution should be interpreted? tell the american people why they should elect you to be the next president. >> now the wait is over. >> i think we already have
great. >> we are going to drain the swamp. >> no more debates. >> rather have a puppet as president. >> no puppet. you're the puppet. >> voters decide. next night 2016 starts now. the long, winding road to the white house ends here. studio "f," our news fox news election headquarters. good evening, everyone, i'm megyn kelly. >> i'm bret baier. less than an hour to go until the first poll closings of the night, after a campaign that can only be described as unprecedented. >> yeah. from the meteoric rise of donald trump and a contentious democratic primary few expected to the explosive allegationses in both campaigns, both
candidates have had their highs and their lows. >> following behind at all times, chief campaign correspondents, jennifer griffin with the hillary clinton campaign, carl cameron with donald trump. we start with carl live at trump headquarters just down the road. carl? >> reporter: hi, bret, a short while ago i faulk spoke to one trump officials and said they're cautiously, hopefully optimistic. trump tweeted this is far from over, urging people to get out the vote. we're now within hours of finding out who the next president is going to be. donald trump spent the last week campaigning in a lot of blue states. states that were won by barack obama back in 2012. trying to give himself a whole series of backstop states if, in fact, the first four that he's most interested must-wins, florida, ohio, pennsylvania, north carolina, could have some problems. the trump campaign is looking for opportunities to expand the party, to draw in more independents, disaffected
democrats, particularly looking for more white voters, you know, he's been appealing to them, that's his strongest base. middle class, working class american whites. the question is whether or not hillary clinton on the other side will have a big turnout from african-american and of course hispanic voters. >> he'll be here tonight making his, he hopes, victory speech, bret. >> thank you. >> now to jennifer griffin live with the clinton campaign. jennifer? >> reporter: megyn, identi've s to clinton campaign officials who are feeling very confident tonight but i will say they also tell me the candidate, herself, is very superstitious. they scaled back a decision to have fireworks to celebrate, a che feeling they don't want to get ahead of themselves. hillary clinton voted earlier today near her house in chappaqua, new york. her vice president, tim kaine, voted in virginia. he was standing in line behind a 99-year-old woman who indicated she would be voting for the democratic ticket. when she was born, women did not
have the right to vote. hillary clinton was asked by reporters after she voted this morning how she felt, and she said she felt humbled. >> i know how much responsibility goes with this and so many people are counting on the outcome of this election. what it means for our country, and i'll do the very best i can if i'm fortunate enough to win today. >> reporter: if you want to know where the democrats are concerned about polling returns tonight, just look at where she and president obama made radio call-ins today to the "drive time" radio show host in detroit, in new hampshire, in boston. appealing to new hampshire as well as to north carolina and tallahassee, that panhandle of florida. that is where they know that they are going to have some trouble, they've seen it in recent days and they're hoping to get out the vote there. back to you, megyn. >> jennifer, thank you. >> we've been keeping a close eye on the exit polls throughout the day.
mark has been watching that and has the latest. hi there. >> let's take a look at these numbers come in and this is an early ways still, we want to make that perfectly clear. when we show you these, they're going to change throughout the corpse of the nig course of the night. those who were late deciders, let's look at them. we saw both candidates canvassing the country trying to get a handle on folks who may have not decided. here's how they broke down among the late deciders. 42%, bret, for clinton, 42% went for donald trump. we also saw an uptick in those who went to johnson or stein. they got a p chunk of the electorate so far at 23%. for those two. so let's go forward now and take a look at the next one which is, if you dislike both of the presidential candidates, which was a common theme over the course of this election, who did you sort of hold your nose and vote for? 27% of those who dislike both candidates went for hillary clinton. 45% of them were looking for change and went for donald trump. johnson, 18%, and stein 5% as
you can see there. in terms of the top quality for a candidate, change is very important to voters tonight. 82% of those voters, no big surprise there, are going for donald trump. for those who wanted experience, hillary clinton clearly is doing well with that group. she wins that group handily. so let's take a look at the next one which, you know, goes to demographics, you guys, because there's a lot of groups out there we're concerned about. >> what about the hispanic vote, is it true that it is bigger, a bigger portion of the electorate tonight than previous years? >> so it appears slightly at this point. it looks like it's at about 11%, an uptick from 10% last time around and when you look at how hispanics are voting, it's quite interesting because it looks like they're getting about the same amount of the electorate that mitt romney got. 27% for donald trump in hispanics. given the fact that he started his campaign with some very critical comments about hispanics, that's quite interesting. you've got hillary clinton getting about 65% of those. >> so it is early, you pointed
that out. we'll get more waves throughout the night. 65% going to hillary clinton? >> that's right, 27% to donald trump. pretty high number for hispanics so far. >> interesting. more to come. great to see you. >> want to bring in our panel. here at the anchor desk, brit hume, chris wallace, plus the next anchor desk, there, tucker carlson, katie, mo alethy, monica crowley. great to have you here with us. let me start with you, how you see this night shaping up so far, what you gleaned from the exit polling. >> one thing we're going to learn from the exit polling throughout the night is we're going to know what the shape of the american electorate now is. f martha gave us a hint of that with the hispanic vote. a little bit less by a couple percentage points than it was four years ago, tells you theob many, an increasing share going to hispanics is real and continued and will affect the outcome of this race and our
political life for some time to come and as these trends continue. so that's something i'll be watching all evening. >> chris, what about you, what are you watching? >> well, first of all, trump's possible path to victory and it's based on three states. he's got to hold north carolina which romney won in 2012. he's got to flip florida which obama won in 2012, and he's got to flip ohio. if he doesn't flput those three together, that's not enough to get to 270. almost impossible for him to win unless he has those three states. >> monica, what do you think is on the table tonight for the trump campaign in particular? >> in particular, yeah, i mean, i think this has the potential to be a realigning election. there are so many cross currents under way that it might be possible that a reliable predictive model is not even operative tonight. i think when it comes to donald trump, his main challenge was his essential message was one of economic populism, law and order, a strong national defense, defeating a corrupt rigged system.
did that message reach and convince enough democrats, independents and undecided votes to really make a difference? the number that martha just put up, 82% who voted for donald trump as the candidate of change, i think that's a very significant number because this is a change election. 70% of the american people for a very long time now have thought that the country is on the wrong track. that advantages the change candidate, donald trump. >> and she tried to seize that mantle for a little while, she was out there saying the very fact i'm a woman means i'm the change candidate. so far, we're seeing that didn't resonate. >> right. >> mo, both changing on demographics and potentially the outreach in some of these states like michigan and pennsylvania by donald trump. >> yeah, look, i think the clinton campaign made it very, very concerted effort to bank as many early votes as they possibly could. what the exit polls showed, not one of the stats that was just shown here but an overwhelming majority of those who were
polled were contacted by the clinton campaign and not by the trump campaign. the clinton ground game, a good ground game could be worth two to four points in a typical election. in some of these states, that could be enough. that could be the margin. factor that with the turnout we're seeing in some of the key battleground states, like florida, for example, numbers just came out that showed in broward county, there's an 8% increase in turnout over 2012. you'll remember, barack obama won florida by relatively small margin last time. that kind of an increase in one of the democrats' strongest footholds in the state could be decisive in one of the republicans' biggest strongholds, duvall county, there's only a 2% increase. that ground game matters and it matters in a state like florida which as we already discussed, he can't win without it. >> for all we've seen this election cycle, katie, about, you know, republicans discont t discontented with donald trump in particular, it does appear tonight, so far, from early
polling, that he has consolidated that republican base, that when push came to shove as mike pence put it, they came home. >> yeah, very obvious now that republicans came out to vote for donald trump and i think we need to give credit to rn kprrc here ground game is very important. they learned over the course of the past four years after the mitt romney loss they needed to change the way they target voters. i was talking to an rnc official earlier tonight before the show, he said look, we tripled, quadrupled or ground game, staff members in swing states like florida, ohio, pennsylvania, nevada. they're confident they've been able to target voters who are not only hillary clinton supporters previously in previous elections but also those who maybe weren't going to come out to vote for donald trump. >> give credit to reince priebus. what about to jim comey? >> we also see in the exiting polling that the e-mails did bother a lot of the voters, right, in the early exit polling. i don't think that james comey wanted to necessarily get involved in this election. i think he did the right thing but certainly hillary clinton's decision to set up a private server has haunted her throughout this campaign, not just in the past two weeks. >> tucker, your takeaway.
>> you're seeing what parties are becoming. everything is changing obviously and exit polls give you a glimpse of what it's going to look like tomorrow. the democratic party is becoming the party of the rich and poor. hillary won voters, income over 100,000, under 55,000, the center went for trump. trump won overwhelmingly among veterans, for example, she won overwhelmingly among people born in different countries. >> is winning. >> i'm saying in the polls, exactly, right. what's so interesting is you're really seeing the most powerful elements of american society, entirely on her side. there's never been a coalition this powerful aligned against any candidate i don't think in american history. it's all of tech, all of media, hollywood, finance, academia, sort of everyone who makes a lot and is well educated is on one side, everyone else on the other essentially. >> all right. we have georgia, indiana, kentucky, south carolina, vermont and virginia coming up in 46 minutes. as we've mentioned, we are coming to you live from our new state of the art studio, we like this. >> fancy. >> fox news election
headquarters. it is complete with 46 digital displays including our massive nine-foot-tall, 30-foot-wide media wall and there it is. ticking down. >> it's all being controlled in the control room. that's how it works. the folks behind the scenes running the high-powered technology. we've also got our decision desk close by. you may be familiar with these guys from four years ago. yeah. remember these guys? >> are you walking there? >> we'll see. carl? where's carl? he's on standby. they'll be crunching the numbers and working to make the calls for you later in the night. that's just down here, down the hall here on the first floor. upstairs is our data deck. bill hemmer is manning the billboard joined by the best in the business to analyze the returns. county by county. shannon bream is keeping an eye on what people are posting on twitter, facebook and instagram. we're going to hear from all of them later in the hour. >> this is exciting. i mean, the 7:00 closings, you have in there virginia which is
obviously, they've been battling for, heading in, hillary clinton seemed to have a lead. we'll see how it breaks down. once we get these states coming in, there's so much of an early vote, 43 million-plus voted early around the country. and probably 130 million votes around america. so we'll be able to get the raw vote total coming in first, as well as the exit polls. be able to tell you a lot. >> for me, some of the tension of the evening is the circle of doom that hovers above us. it comes down. >> any moment. >> it goes up. it's brand new. we're testing out this technology. say a little prayer for us. if things go really south, we got our friends over there who will take over. >> did anybody bring the drama --dramu dramamine -- i'm getting motion sick on this. >> we have it spinning around, you can't look at it very long, you'll lose your balance. >> tucker is the anchor now, right? >> yes. >> you're the contributor? >> i'm just a lowly contributor.
i have -- >> you're not a lowly anything. >> you've never been lowly. >> can i just say one quick thing about the decision desk? after the show on sunday, i brought my grandkids here, and we walked, i said that's the decision desk then being a grandpa, i said, that's where they're deciding the election. you know these millions of people who vote? they decide that. the decision desk got very into that and my 9-year-old granddaughter, caroline, whom you know, went no way, they're deciding the election? i said, they're the decision gods. >> chris -- >> you got to understand a lot of people on my twitter feed will believe that. >> they care about one thing, one thing only which is to call the election correctly. and you know, as it turns out, we found this out in 2012, they're human beings, too. they sweat it out a little bit on the big call sometimes. they go around on a tight call, make each man raise his hand, say if he's in on the call. sometimes just wavering if there's a question about it from the anchor desk after the fact. no, we'll get into that later. >> we'll see. we'll see. >> we're just getting started, folks. six states are set to close at the top of the hour.
we should get our very first returns of the night. we have reporters standing by at polling places in all of the key battleground states. north carolina, florida, pennsylvania, ohio. these are the states that could decide the presidency tonight. plus, the other big story of the night, the, the balance of power in washington. will democrats take control or will republicans hold onto power in congress? results are ahead as election night 2016 continues live from fox news world headquarters in new york city.
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welcome back to our election night coverage on fox news. let's get some thoughts now on how the night is shaping up from the clinton campaign. deputy communications director christina shockey before joining the clinton team, she was communications chief for first lady michelle obama. christina, thanks for being here. your thoughts early in the night. and as we get this first round of exit polls and the field feen the clinton campaign. >> thanks for having me. we're very excited tonight on the clinton campaign. we felt very strong, bret, coming into tonight because of the incredible early vote that we saw. the important states like florida. 6 million people voted in florida. we saw double the turnout with latinos and asia pacific islanders from 2012 and actually
a third of those voters were people who didn't vote in the last presidential election. so they're new voters coming out. we feel strongly that they're coming out for hillary clinton. so we felt really good about the work we did to get people out to vote early. and you know what, we're hearing today, we think it's really good, we're really excited. important counties in florida like broward county and orange county, we're already seeing more voters than voted in election day in 2012. and we've got hourses to go before the polls close. >> christinchristina, talking t of the republicans and trump folks heading into today, they see opportunity in michigan and pennsylvania and obviously secretary clinton and the first family, the first lady and the president, and the former president, were there in those states. was that a concern coming into today, those two states? >> well, you know, those are game-day states, states where people don't vote early and actually the votes come in on election day, so they were really important for us to spend time in and have our incredible surrogates like the president and first lady there at the end
as we were closer to election day. so that we used her time really strategically and that of our surrogates to get them there closer to those days. we feel really good. we actually think in philadelphia they're going to have record turnout today which is a really important place for hillary's support. so we really built good organizations in those two states and really hope that hillary supporters get out there and vote. >> finally, what did you see over the last couple of days heading into today? did secretary clinton shore things up? was there a slip and then she kind of shored up these states before today? >> well, you know, hillary wanted to close this campaign by talking to americans directly about the choice that we have in this election today, what kind of country we want to be. donald trump was offering a very dark and divisive vision of what america could be and hillary was talking about the america that she wants to lead which is stronger, fairer and big hearted. so she really wanted to end with the important message of hope and also talk to people about
the fact she wants to be a president for everyone, even for people who didn't support her. that she's going to get up everybody day in the oval office, that she has a privilege of being our president and work her heart out for american families. so that's what she talked about to close this campaign. >> kristina, thanks for your time. we look forward to talking to the campaign later on. >> as we wait for the first states to close at the top of the hour, the other big story of the night, the balance of power in congress. right now republicans are in the majority but that could all change this evening. team fox coverage continues. we have reporters spread out in the key states that could make the difference. but we start with our chief washington correspondent, james rosen, live on capitol hill. james? >> reporter: megyn, good evening. only one of two chambers of the u.s. congress is seen as being in play tonight. in the united states senate, the republicans presently enjoy a majority of 54-44 with 2 independents including vermont's bernie sanders, caucusing with the democrats. that means the democrats need to pick up a net gain of five seats to regain control of the upper
chamber or just four seats to achieve a 50/50 tie in which case the next vice president of the united states will likely break tie votes. the republicans are defending some two dozen seats tonight. the democrats only ten. a number of senate races have attracted national attention. just to mention a few, in missouri, the incumbent republican senator, roy blunt, has faced a surprisingly tough challenge from the democratic secretary of state, jason candor. in new hampshire, republican incumbent senator kelly ayotte is facing off against the governor of that state, maggie hassan. each have tried to tie to the nominee at the top of the ticket. rob portman was seen as one of most endangered republicans but run a strong race against the former democratic governor ted strickland.orida, the surprise announcement by marco rubio to seek re-election to his senate seat after the end of his presidential candidacy has made things much tougher for the congressman there. the democrat challenger, patrick murphy. in the house, republicans enjoy
a majority of 247-188. the chances of the democrats picking up the 30 seats they'd need to regain control of the lower chamber have looked slim for some time. that did not stop the house minority leader nancy pelosi, democrat of california, from blaming that in a session with reporters today on fbi director james comey. megyn? >> james, great to see you. >> meantime incumbent republican senator ron johnson is in a tight race against the democrat he ousted six years ago. more than $28 million has been spent on ads in this race. a signal of how crucial wisconsin's senate seat could really be. mike tobin is live in janesville, wisconsin w the latest on that race. mike? >> reporter: hey there, bret. even here at paul ryan headquarters the race they're keeping on eye on is the rematch between democrat russ feingold and republican ron johnson. johnson came from a deficit. he hit the ground hard. got a lot of help from the party and turned this into a dead heat. now early voting in wisconsin has been shattering records. turnout has been very heavy in liberal dane county advantage
feingold. it's also been heavy in the population centers, populated counties around milwaukee advantage johnson. this is going to be one to keep an eye on. it's going to be a squeaker. paul ryan, himself, has an opponent, his campaign isn't worried about this guy. they think he's going to make easy work of him. greater concern for fall ryan is the shape of the republican majority when all the dust settles out here and the shape of republican unity following this bruising campaign. bret? >> mike tobin in wisconsin. mike, thank you. >> next in nevada where congressman joe heck has a chance of flipping a solid democrat senate seat red. the seat is currently held by five-term democratic senator and minority leader harry reid who is retiring. chief correspondent jonathan hunt is live at aolling location in las vegas. jonathan? >> reporter: good evening, megyn. democrats are desperate to hold onto harry reid's seat. republicans would love nothing more than to make such a high-profile turnover. that is one of the reasons why
outside groups are trying to swing this way one way or another, spending some $50 million in total on this race. the democrat candidate, catherine cortez, a former attorney general, is helped here by the democrats' strong ground game throughout nevada. she's also been trying to tie her opponent consistently to the top of the republican ticket. and she has had some success in that. dr. joe heck, the republican candidate, a veteran and doctor, has had some trouble in formulating his stance toward donald trump. he first embraced the republican presidential candidate then backed off of donald trump after the sexual assault allegations and then in the last week or so of this campaign, has been edging back toward the republican nominee. it's likely in the end, even at this late stage, megyn, to come down to turnout. catherine cortez masto trying to
drive the latino vote up here in las vegas and surrounding clark county. dr. heck hoping for a large turnout in more conservative northern nevada. megyn? >> jonathan hunt, one of the states to watch, thank you. >> okay. we want to explain what you'll see on the screen throughout the night. these are the net gains. so as we talked about in the house, democrats need to pick up 30 seats. so you'll see the net gains there. right now it's zero. >> good, i can follow this. >> yes. huge, seven, carry the -- >> got this. >> plus 30 in the house for democrats. that means they take control. in the senate, they need a net gain of five. however, they could get four senate seats and then hillary clinton wins the presidency and they take control of the u.s. senate. so the numbers to watch on the net gain, house plus 30, and net gain in the senate, plus five or plus four and the white house and they take control of those chambers. >> and if hillary clinton won the presidency, if they won plus four, tim kaine would cast the
deciding vote but he would also have to give up his senate seat, right? >> as vice president, he's the head of the senate and he casts the deciding vote but that is a precarious -- >> no, no, what i'm saying, he casts the deciding vote but has to give up his senate seat. >> right, there will be a race in virginia. >> that will be good news for the democrats if they feel good about refilling the seat with another dem. >> in two years, they are in a bad position because they're up 25 seats around the country. in 2018. >> let's bring in some more panelists for you tonight. george willis here along with steve hayes, laura ingraham, former congressman dennis kucinich. good to see you. all george, your thoughts? >> on the larger picture tonight what i'll be looking at is our friend ron brownstein, the man who coined the phrase, the blue wall. 18 states plus the district of columbia that have voted six consecutive times for the democratic candidate and have 242 electoral votes. he says, mr. brownstein, the
loosest bricks in the brick wall are wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. the question is will any of them be changed or will we go into 2020 saying there are now 18 states and d.c., seven consecutive times have voted for the democrats? >> laura, we talked about with the last panel a changing electorate. a changing map on both of the republicans where they do well, and the democrats with demographics. >> yeah, in florida, some of the early exit poll results show that the electorate has gotten more nonwhite. gone up from 33% and if these numbers hold to 39%. that shows the changing demographics in the state of florida. much of this was predicted. and that's going to be something that, of course, we have to keep a lookout in nevada. states like north carolina where immigration is very important, and georgia. non college educated older white vote at least so far seems to be going for trump. that's not something that we didn't predict. that's something we did predict.
if we're going to see a real move for trump it's going to have to exist in a state like michigan. i completely agree that's a breakout state for him. if we see real movement there, that blue-collar vote that people like rick santorum and others tapped into, that's going to be the place where trump makes a stand. but an interesting exit poll result we saw earlier was that 46% said they wanted the next president to be more conservative in policies. interesting. again, we'll see how that plays out. some people don't think trump's a conservative. i understand that. that will be interesting to see how that plays out. nose are two metrics that i looked at early on. again, we have to remind everyone, these shift and they have been wildly inaccurate in previous elections. i always take some with a grain of salt. >> the exit polls, a good point, back in 2004 they were predicting a john kerry win. didn't work out so well for him. >> exactly. >> steve, earlier this evening kellyanne conway was on another network suggesting that -- she said things that worry me, i guess, is that we didn't have
the full support of the republican infrastructure. she just said it would be too bad if we win narrowly and it's just because of the democrats, or this or that or the other suggesting we didn't have even the support of former gop presidents behind us. do you think that's a valid complaint that they didn't have the support given what we're seeing so far at least in the exit polls on trump consolidating the republican base? >> yeah, it looks from the exit polls he did consolidate northeast of the republican base and the republicans who didn't end up supporting donald trump weren't a decisive factor. but you would expect this kind of thing. i think what people have taken her comments to mean is maybe starting to cast early blame. i think it's way too early for that. i afrgree with laura. early exit polls, remember in wisconsin recall at the end of the exit polls, it was tied, scott walker ended up winning by seven points. i think it's pretty early. if i can pick up on a point that laura made about demographics, one of the things we've been talking about a lot on "special report" is the white vote, the share of the white vote. in 2012, mitt romney won the
white vote 59%-39%. it was 72% of the overall electorate. in the first wave of exit polls, it looks like it's 55%-38% for donald trump which means he has a lower percentage of the white vote which is a lower percentage of the overall vote which would be problematic if these numbers are accurate. depending on how that white vote is distributed. >> dennis, what are your thoughts about the democratic party coming home as well? the split in the primary with bernie sanders obviously was real, but it seems on the democratic side there was a coming home as well. >> quewell, if you look at what bernie sanders said both during the convention and afterwards, going out and campaigning for the ticket, what he was able to do is encourage a younger voter to come out. we're seeing that in the exit polls that they have gone pretty heavily for clinton. i also think the immigration issue had a backlash side to it which was felt by people of color who have come out
overwhelmingly for hillary clinton. and so we'll see tonight whether or not the democratic party really has a homecoming. i will tell you, though, the split we saw reflected in primary i think could continue after the election. >> panel, thank you very much. by the way, megyn, to your question, chad is all over it. he says that virginia governor mcauliffe would appoint a successor if this goes down, and that it would likely be representative bobby scott, democrat from virginia. there would be a special election to fill that seat in 2017. so it wouldn't be like you would have a lot of time before you had to deal with that seat. >> right. fill it with a democrat, obviously, given what tim kaine is. it's 6:34 and we are getting closer and closer and closer. less than an hour from now, two of the most crucial battleground states of the night will close. that is north carolina and ohio. those are huge. both states could play a key role in deciding the president and the balance of power in the senate. happening now, anchor john scott
is live for us in columbus, ohio, tonight, where 18 electoral votes are up for grabs and the state's own republican governor, john kasich, says he did not vote for donald trump. john? >> reporter: megyn, as you have heard many times, no republican has ever won the white house without winning ohio. we're in franklin county, columbus, state capital, and some of the fractures that still bedevil the republican party are on display. i'm at rob portman's victory splegs celebration in waiting, he expects to beat his challenger, ted strickland. more on that in a moment. donald trump is having his own party across town and the state party, the apparatus of which is controlled by the sitting governor, john kasich, who was bested for republican nomination, they're having their own party about a block away so republicans have three parties from which to choose. now, if donald trump wins ohio, he may have senator portman to thank for it.
portman's people knocked on something like 6 million doors, contacted 6 million voters this campaign around. there were only about 5.1 million, 5.2 million votes cast the last time around. essentially they contacted every voter in ohio in the first 16 months of this race, portman never came out in any of the polls as being ahead, but now well ahead in the real clear politics average of the polling that we have seen up until today. as for the republican party overall, they are pointing to numbers in ohio that suggest early voting in cuyahoga county, cleveland area, where president obama won significantly last time around. early voting is down there. in the meantime, early voting is up in warren county where mitt romney won four -- won that county four years ago. back to you, megyn. >> john scott, thank you. >> 23 minutes to go, of course, ohio huge for both candidates. no republican's ever won the
white house without ohio. i'm up here at the data desk with our friend, bill hemmer. good to be here. >> you're going to love it up here. >> it's very nice. >> a new spot. >> and we -- well, we got some graphics that we think can tell a pretty interesting story throughout the night. >> okay. >> let's get it going here. this would be at the moment with official polls closing in about 23 minutes. this is the current marker where we begin the night. okay? trump's at 164 electoral votes. needs to get to 270 to win the white house. if we, like we discussed over the weekend, if we were to give trump all the states that romney won four years ago, you go arizona, you would go georgia, you would go north carolina. and then you start to put the map into play and figure out what they need to win. it would be iowa, it would be ohio, and it would be florida. and that's not easy. and even that is 259. so if you go there, bret, you're still looking to these states up here, is it pennsylvania or is it a michigan?
is it a wisconsin? that would get him to 269 based on this scenario here. there's a big but in all this and that's hillary clinton has a vote in this and if you want to come on over -- >> so i have a question, what if -- what if hillary clinton as they're talking about, we just talked to kristina, she said they're really optimistic about florida. hillary clinton. okay? now if these states, i mean, we can give her virginia, you know, we can probably give her wisconsin. colorado. and then he has to pick up pennsylvania and michigan, right? or one of the two. >> when you do the math there, and you take florida out of his scenario, it's very difficult. >> he's got to win -- >> you just punched up to 270. how'd you get there? >> i got new hampshire but i gave him michigan and pennsylvania.
and if you give nevada out west to hillary clinton -- >> makes it 258. >> then you. >> -- he has to run the table. he can do it but it's a hard slog. >> we call it the data deck, right? come on over here, i'll show you more of that. look who it is. >> hey. >> nancy meeting you here. >> who would have thought? >> dana perino, chris stirewalt hanging out. that was like my friend, ginger, over there. >> you guys have mad math skills. >> stirewalt, you start on the math you see. >> i mean, the thing we always have to remember is, yeah, you can do the math a lot of different ways. but generally speaking we talk about filling the bathtub, as you start to come in, some states are more republican than others states. as you were talking about earlier, the weakest links in the chain for the democrats are those northern tier rust belt states. it is michigan, it is pennsylvania, it is wisconsin and that's why trump was smart to spend as much time as he did at the end. i'll say this, if hillary
clinton's won florida decisi decisively, she probably has won a lot of other stuff so the trend is your friend, wait and see how it's rolling. >> right, exactly. because the demographics here seem to be shifting and if the latino/hispanic vote is huge in florida, it could be huge in nevada, it could be huge in north carolina and other places. >> and i'm reminded of a friend of ours, whit, a republican strategist and consultant who in 2012 after the loss that romney had helped participate in this autopsy that the republican national committee does and what did they find? they find that the republican party must diversify or it will die, it has to figure out a way to reach out to more latino voters, it needed to find way to reach out to younger voters and these are demographic changes in the country that are not going to change at all. they're not going to be reversed at any time soon. so republicans have to find more voters in those states if they hope to win a national election. >> but if i may, there was
another idea that wasn't preserved in that autopsy which was that the way forward for republicans was to maximize their share of white vote, white vote to 70%. if they can get two-thirds if they can jack up their numbers of the white vote. what we'll see tonight is the results of the opposite. the autopsy report said go for hispanic votevoters, go for you voters. we're going to see the other thing that was tried. >> just getting started. pretty interesting. watch out for the cameras. >> thanks for having me. >> a lot of moving parts up here. >> come on back. >> megyn, down to you. >> fun little field trip. can't wait to take one, myself. so cyber security's been a major concern this election season. with the feds assisting state officials to protect the democratic process from hackers. you may have heard a bit, you know, a thing or two about hacking this election season. ed henry is live in washington with more on that. hi, ed. >> reporter: megyn, good to see you. stark warning tonight from those cyber security experts.
they tell us a crisis could come as early as the middle of the night after the voting is done because they say hackers are actually more interested in our bank accounts tomorrow than our vote tonight. let me explain. the public obviously already on edge because results are coming in, amid this backdrop of all the wikileaks document dumps and donald trump declaring the system is rigged plus the fbi has been investigating allegations of russian hackers going into several state election systems. but the department of homeland security tonight tells us they've mobilized a specific division to swoop in and defend the systems of our 50 states. their bigger fear, they say, is that once trump or hillary clinton wins, hackers hostile to the victor will send their own political message by unleashing attacks that could affect every one of our viewers. watch. >> i'm very much far more concerned about what will happen tonight while we sleep in cyber space as a reaction, digital reaction, to the election. the infrastructures of the
united states from finance to energy to transportation to high-tech to media are all vulnerable to cyber attack. >> so, for example, he said if trump wins, anonymous, a hacker who promotes liberal ideas will come after campaign donors and big corporations tied to the gop. if clinton wins, we might see russian hackers unleash fury at high-tech companies like facebook that are friendly to clinton plus wall street institutions like goldman sachs and various banks where we have our money. megyn? >> ed, thank you. >> one of the big surprises as we talked about on the electoral map, florida, 29 electoral votes. >> we're going to speak with some old colleagues who know how important the sunshine state can be. mark mckinnon and karl rove. here they are. in earlier times. join us live in just a minute. >> more from fox news election headquarters as we count down to the top of the hour and the first poll closings of the night. ♪
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we where just minutes way from 7:00 p.m. eastern when six states close, georgia, indiana, kentucky, south carolina, virginia and vermont. just to tell you how close this might be, the clinton campaign manager robby mook predicts that north carolina may not be called on election night. we'll see if that holds true, but first, to another huge state and that is florida. one of the biggest prizes of the night. steve harrigan is live in miami tonight. steve? >> reporter: bret, we're seeing a very strong turnout across the state tonight especially in key cities and record early voting. more than 6.5 million people voted early and the state of florida has 700,000 new voters this time around. of those new voters, more than 40% are hispanic. this could be a key demographic in this vote because day are voting and voting in huge numbers. more hispanics voted early this time around that voted in the entire election in 2012.
another race to keep an eye on here, marco rubio, the republican senator in his re-election bid. he's been in a tough fight so far with representative patrick murphy. the two have really gone at it. murphy has tried throughout the campaign to link rubio to donald trump. rubio has said while he is voting for donald trump, he said he considers both presidential candidates a horrifying choice for america. bret, back to you u. >> steve harrigan in miami, steve, thankses. >> joining me with more, mike mckinnon, karl rove, both worked on president george w. bush's 2000 campaign. famously came down to florida. 2004 brought more fun for you. great to see you guys both. let's go back to exit, let's talk about exiting polling in general, mark. let me start with you on that. how reliable your experience it with it. >> well, i have bad flashbacks about 2004. i remember we campaigned on air force one the last day of the campaign. >> you two guys were both there. >> we were both there. >> with george w. bush. >> as soon as we landed, we got the exit polls and carl had to go give the news to the boss.
i felt the oxygen get sucked out of the plane. >> it was bad. >> it was horrible. >> we got in on final approach to andrews and so as we're landing, i have to walk forward to the cabin before we land to tell the president, we're literally 50 feet off the ground and walking down the hallway, not concerned at all about what was going to happen to me if we crashed because concerned if i made it all the way into the office and told him. >> at that point, we have the lesson of 2004 to say, be cautious because exit polling has been very, very wrong. did you have that caution back then and was it a big surprise? >> no. >> and he won. >> look, this is the second time it happened. you may remember in 2000, the exit polls pointed toward florida being an al gore state and that was then compounded by some reporting, mistakes in the actual vote. we literally had to go on the air, i remember going on cnn basically telling them they miscalled florida. >> oh, that's a pattern with you. >> at 8:10. >> so, and they were wrong. and, but, no, look, by the time
we got to white house, by the time we got to the second floor of the white house, had a stack about thissal of the exit polls, started going through them and they were completely wrong. 76% in north carolina were women. we were losing white men in florida. hadn't happened since 1964. mvs m mississippi was too close to call. we divvied up the major players in media. mark was calling some of them. others at the campaign. we couldn't get them to turn it around. >> tried to dial it back. >> it colored the coverage until the -- >> by that time, it was over, i was looking for sharp objects, drinking heavily. they had to pull me out of a coma. >> they're always doing that. hopefully not on the exit polling. let me ask you, wait, wait, i want to ask you because it broke today that george w. bush, our former president, and former first lady laura bush confirmed they did not vote for donald trump today. they also say they did not vote
for hillary clinton. and they didn't specify what that means. who they did vote for, if they did a write-in. and that, i think that among other things has led kellyanne conway to come out and say we could is used more support from top republicans like the former test. >> to expand the base on immigration reform, education reform. those are the kinds of issues, and, by the way, we talk about the hispanic vote. i remember early on we said we have to win at least 40% of that vote in 2000. we got 41. and what are the numbers we are looking at now? >> we'll see. look, there is a reason she may have brought it up. you will notice donald trump has not brought this up since may. he has not been talking about getting the president
bushes. i met with him at the end of may. he brought this up to me personally. i said to him in essence do you really want to pursue this issue? you called for the impeachment of george w. bush. you voted for john kerry in 2004. you said that george w. bush deliberately lied about the presence of wmd in iraq in order to provoke a war. you said he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks and allowed 3,000 americans to die deliberately. and do you really want to -- do you really expect him to say nice things to you? the implicit thing was do you want to have these issues litigated? imagine what would happen somebody would say president bush, what do you have to say about him believing that you should have been impeached? donald trump, do you think he still should have been impeached? do you think your vote for john kerry was justified? this is a loser for you. most republicans are unaware that you said these things let it lie and he did. when one of his surrogates stepped forward and said in an article i think bushes
out to come out and endorse him i called that surrogate and said, i had this conversation with your principle. >> fascinating. >> and this was his response. and the surrogates said, you know what? i didn't know he had said those things, you are right. we ought to drop. this president bush, i think, has handled this in the appropriate way by simply staying on the sidelines. donald trump did not want to have an argument with the american people about whether or not he was justified in saying bush should have been impeached. john kerry should have been elected. bush lied about wmd. >> not to mention trump and jeb didn't get along that well. that was not the highlight of the campaign for some. great to see you both and much more with mark and carl kal in a bit. >> something about energy or something. >> shannon bream is keeping an eye on twitter, facebook and instagram. shannon. >> we will be here monitoring everything digital media in cool chandelier including facebook and instagram. we want to know what people are talking about on air and union line. number of people talking about each candidate over the past 24 hours more than
28.8 million people talking about donald trump. more than 27.5 million talking about hillary clinton. now, this is cool data. take a look at the minute-by minute conversation on facebook right now. more than 111,000 people talking about trump every minute and just over 95,000 people per minute talking about clinton. and how about some of your tweets? amy hale tweeting our daughter will never forget her first time voting. by the way, if we can show that photo. check out her dad's shorts when we get to that. pretty sweet. clutch king tweeted in a photo without caption. we're pretty sure that's who he is voting for. family photo. a lot of people gathered up on our way to vote use the #the family that votes together, stays together. we want you to be a part of our coverage tonight. we have gotten tons of photos. check this out. this is just a fraction of photos we have gotten from people using the #fox news 2016. it's not too late. we will be here for hours tonight. keep them coming.
in use the #2016 on facebook, twitter, stain gram. you might see yourself right here as we follow tonight's breaking news. guys, back to you. >> shannon, thank you. >> so we are now just minutes away from the very first returns in election 2016. who will take the first states of the night? this is it. we're getting real results in moments. ♪ ♪
6:56 here in the east, folks. almost 6:57. we are awaiting the very first poll closings in six states. so finally we are actually going to have real results after four years of campaigning. [ laughter ] >> joined at the desk by brit hume and chris wallace again. you know, we were talking at the beginning, chris, 597 days ago ted cruz got in the race. we have had a long strange ride since then. >> it has, indeed, been a long, strange ride. and the three of us were together for that first debate on august 6th of 2015, but who is counting. can i talk about one state that's going to come up at 7:00 that we haven't talked about much? and that's georgia. georgia is a reliably republican state. it has gone for the republican every time since ronald reagan went for re-election in 1984 except 1992 when bill clinton won it. every other time it's gone republican. there are indications from our exit polls tonight that surprisingly close. and here's the point.
georgia has 16 electoral votes. it has as many electoral votes as michigan has got. we are all talking about if trump could flip michigan and get the 16 votes in a traditionally blue state. what if hillary clinton flipped georgia and got the 16 electoral votes in a traditionally red state. i'm not saying it's going to happen but it's going to watch tonight. >> be getting a lot of of attention. part of her intention to shore up states and play offense in states that might turn from red to blue. >> it was interesting discussion because when she started going back to the places like michigan, which, you know, one might have thought she would have had wrapped up when she started going in there, two ways to look at it. one is she is just trying to play it safe. try to head him off at the pass. he is trying to go in there the other was she was truly worried that a state like michigan would flip. i don't recall her going anywhere like georgia toward the end. but who knows on this strange year what could happen. early exit polling indicated that texas was closer than
expected. i don't think anybody thinks that hillary clinton is going to win texas. but it goes to chris' point that there are places on the map which we haven't really been talking about which may provide a big surprise tonight and could throw either candidate's plans into a cocked hat. >> there you go. i mean. >> what's a cocked hat and what do you throw into it. >> definitely not in the prompter. >> wow. we had 52 seconds counting down to the poll close. the first polls closing tonight. we have georgia, indiana, kentucky, south carolina, vermont, and virginia. virginia, you know, could be close. they played for virginia. donald trump visited there once. and obviously senator tim kaine. >> that was another state that he started to target after the comey announcement about two weeks ago that suddenly he thought might be in play much to the delight of team trump. they went down there and started to to work your home state, brit. >> it is my home state. it's where i live. one county there, there is a bunch of counties around the country which are certified
bellwether counties because they have gone for the winner in the last four elections. loud done county, virginia north and west of washington, d.c. has gone for the winner the last four times around. one to keep an eye on because it might tell us a lot not just about virginia but about the country as a whole. >> and it is 7:00 on the east coast which means polls have just closed in half a dozen states and the fox news decision desk can, at long last begin to call winners and losers in the 2016 presidential race. our first projection is in vermont where hillary clinton will easily win that state's 3 electoral votes according to fox news exit polls. >> next we go to kentucky where fox news can project that donald trump will prevail picking up 8 electoral votes. donaltrump will also win indiana where his running mate mike pence, of course, serves as governor, based on the fox exit polls and the early returns. >> in virginia, where hillary clinton's running mate, tim kaine serves as that state's junior senator she has a lead right now over trump. although it is too early to
project a winner there. >> it's also too early to say who will win georgia to chris wallace's point and south carolina two tightly contested states that trump must clinch if he is to have a plausible path to house. and if you look at some of these states, the reason why we can call a lot of them early is because some people have voted early in 39 states around the country. so basically these states, push a button, you get the early raw vote total and then you get the exit polls and our decision desk can extrapolate from both of those. >> does it mean anything that states like south carolina and georgia are too close to call right now? >> i'm astonished particularly about south carolina. georgia we had a little bit of the suspicion this might not be as easy republican wins a usual. but this speaks, megyn, to a larger issue in that there's the possibility and very early in the night, obviously, but there is the possibility that we're going to see the electoral map change and that with more hispanics, more african-americans voting,
the white population, a smaller percentage of the total electorate, that you can see states that were traditionally red in the south and southwest starting to go democrat or at least beginning to go that way and conversely some of the rust belt states like ohio, like michigan, like pennsylvania that have been, well, not ohio, but michigan, pennsylvania, that have been reliably blue maybe not this time but maybe trump is the forerunner for the idea of republicans flipping and breaking the blue wall. >> turning now to senate races. fox news can project that vermont's patrick leahy, the longest serving democrat in the senate will win an eighth term vanquishing republican businessman scott milne. tim scott will beat thomas dixon. >> i love vanquishing. >> i mean, they just get the best words, don't they? >> people from the decision desk. >> we are also ready to project that kentucky senator rand paul, who dropped his own bid for the
o.p. presidential nomination in february will win by beating democratic challenger jim gray based on our fox news exit polls and early vote tallies. in georgia johnny isakson is ahead of jim barksdale he must garner more than 50% of this vote runoff as required georgia law. so far we are not ready to make a projection in that race. >> that may not bode well for getting above the 50%. runoff january 10th. imagine it's so close that you have to go -- >> -- stop. we don't want to hear about election extending beyond this evening. >> don't talk about it finally we do not know whether indiana democrat evan bayh who retired from the senate six years ago will be able to win back his seat todd young who currently is ahead in the early vote tallies held by dan coyotes. so bye victor bayh would give.
path to taking control of the senate. i will tell you what, this race turned very quickly. they started painting evan bayh as a lobbyist. >> which he is. >> which he was. >> out of the state. >> out of the state. and didn't really have a home there. and that hurts. that can really hurt you with people if they think you are a fakeer. evan pie is very well qualified guy. he was a senator earlier and he was governor and his father was the same. so he obviously had a leg up in that state but it's a pretty red state. so, it's all a state that the republican could say hold. >> you know who is watching this race, i think, is joe donley who is up in two years. he is the other democrat senator from indiana. if evan bayh with the biggest name ever in indiana can't win on an election year, mid terms are going to be tough for joe donley. >> of course as we talked about, in this coming
midterm, it's 25 democratic seats. only eight republicans. basically the reverse of what we have now. the flip of what we have now. >> you know i don't follow sports doesn't the hoosier's coach has have the biggest name in indiana. >> former. >> bobby knight. >> isn't he number one? okay. so, we're going to go over to bill hemmer now who is standing by with chris stirewalt and karl rove on the data deck. >> ongoing elections not a bad thing. i first met bret baier 16 years ago in tallahassee, florida. >> that's right. >> imagine the relationships that can come out of a night like tonight. back here with karl rove and chris stirewalt up here in the data deck. we can chew on the numbers we are getting in right now. i look toward north carolina and ohio at 7:30. coming up in 20 minutes. i look to the big one, karl, florida at 8:00. early voting tells us what about the sunshine state? >> here is what it does tell us in 2012 the democrats had -- there are about 4.5 million early and absentee votes. the democrats came out of
that with 167,000 more democrats voting than republicans in early voting. and on election day, of course, obama carried the state by 74,000. this year. >> about 85,000 votes. >> right. >> this year in 2016, there are about 6.5 million. 6.4 million early and absentee ballots. the democrat advantage has been shrunk by half to 88,000. and if you work that, what that might point to is 39,000 vote trump lead if everything breaks on election day like it broke back then. >> can i show you something real quick? over here on the board, if you look at florida from four years ago, exactly what you are saying, karl, to your point, when obama defeated romney by 80,000, roughly, 80,000 votes,. >> 74. >> 74,000 was the total. this is broward county alone in southeastern, florida. that's a margin of more than 250,000. and that county in southeastern florida. you get about 26% of the
overall vote down there in florida. does trump offset that advantage in central and northern florida toward the panhandle? >> i would expect his numbers in north florida would be substantially better than mitt romney's were because trump is too long better with the working class white voters. now, the problem that donald trump's going to run in to in florida is that it looked like hispanic turnout is gigundous. high hispanic turnout. other thing i would say about the hispanic vote. people are early voting more and more. older republicans voting early. happening. it gets harder and harder to extrapolate results out of early voting. >> to that point you don't know who is the new voter and taking advantage. >> the campaigns know because the campaigns are collecting every day the voter certificate numbers of whoever is voting and running against the voter files so they know exactly what low propensity voters are in there. the democrats say the following about this early
vote. take a look there. there is 1,391,000 votes cast by unaffiliated voters. what they are saying is that hidden in there are a lot of new hispanic voters. perhaps as many as one out of every five hispanics voting has never voted before. what they are doing is they are saying those hispanics didn't register as democrats. they are unaffiliated and they are showing up there. we will see later tonight when their votes start to come in. >> all right, gentlemen. >> but the democrats do have a closer. >> thank you. >> run here in florida. >> north carolina and ohio. >> the three states. >> big fish. >> back downstairs, guys. >> i believe that the studio cost $30 million? 16 feed of digital walls. >> $30 million. that's all we needed. we could have done it for $12. >> get a digital white poured like a digital sharpy? >> look, he is proud. >> we have a if you more things. >> holy cow. >> we love it. >> north carolina is
extending voting in two counties. just getting word about that. that's a big deal that means that that voting will continue. let's get over to martha maccallum who is breaking down the latest on exit poll data. >> do not separate karl rove from white board. not a good idea. >> temperament has been such a big issue throughout the course of this campaign. did donald trump have the light temperaturement to be president of the united states. 64% say. no this is an argument hillary clinton made forcefully and it looks like voters went along with her on that. however, if you are in the camp and you are the one in four voter who say, you know what? i want someone who is angry like i am, those people, donald trump is resonating with in a big way. 75% of them went with donald trump. now. we're all talking about the first-time voters and the notion that the trump campaign was bringing out people who have not come out before or who have not voted in a very, very long time. interestingly, take a look
at this number, people who say they are first-time voters in this election breaking for hillary clinton 55% to 37%. so, i mean, it is not bearing out in terms of that you know, there were so many personal issues that also were discussed through the course of this campaign and those are coming up as well. >> through the course of the campaign how about tonight? >> spent so much time reporting on this story and been a question all along. do people care? are they worried about the email issue? did it matter to them? 62 percent said yes. the email story bothers me regardless of the fact that jim comey went back and forth on this issue. not happy about the way hillary clinton handled her email and as far as donald trump, you know, he has had his issues as well. >> the women issue, how did that pan out. >> women issue, donal trump's treatment of women bother you and this is even bigger number than we saw with the email number 71% did say it had an impact on how they
voted today and were not happy with donald trump's treatment of women. you look back at the tape, the access hollywood moment, all of that. you can see that is having an impact tonight, guys. >> martha, thank you. >> you bet. >> joining us now is jason miller, the senior communications vo for the trump campaign. jason, great to see you. >> good evening. thank you for having me on. >> you're the guy that karl rove was just talking about, the campaign guy who has access presumably to better numbers than the exit poll terspollsters do. what are you seeing? what states are you excited about now. >> we will tell you why we are excited about florida we think mr. trump will ultimately win. going into election day republicans are usually down behind democrats in early and absentee voting our ticket is doing 81,000 votes better, republicans are doing 81,000 votes better than the ticket was four years ago. four counties i want to point out duvall in northeastern florida and hillsborough where tampa is, republicans are overperforming their percentage of the electorate by six points. democrats are
underperforming their percentage by four points. >> verses four years ago versus democrats in that county. >> versus how many are there. broad one obroward one of the b. democrats are underperforming by 6%. >> let me ask you about broward county. news came out earlier is broward has broken the record for most votes ever with less than one hour left to go. that was 6:00 tonight. something like 127,000. this is a county where barack obama boat mitt romney handily by like 67% to 42%. if they are overperforming there that would be good for the democrats. >> a lot more republicans showing up. also as we talk about collier county in southwest florida it's 3.5% higher for republicans. about 3.5% lower for democrats. when we look at some of these key indicators we are optimistic that we are going to win florida. obviously one of the core battleground states. we feel good there. we feel good about north
carolina. especially in ohio seeing lower democratic numbers. democratic votes are going to be off by 3% to 5% in cuyahoga county where cleveland is. >> down in some of the democratic districts. question to you is feel good about ohio and florida must wins for donald trump. obviously he is looking somewhat better than he would have anticipated a couple weeks ago in states like pennsylvania and michigan. what about north carolina? do you think we're going to be able to call that tonight. >> we feel good about north carolina. we will be able to call it for mr. trump. how soon that will be we don't know. >> pennsylvania? >> pennsylvania is going to be close. i think we have a real shot there i think we have a real shot in michigan. >> how about wisconsin? >> wisconsin is going to be tough. we're still fighting it out. who knows. we will see what the number looks like. >> what's the number one state you want to hear from tonight number one you are going to keep your ears on. >> i love all of them. if you haven't voted get out. stop hillary clinton and elect mr. trump. thank you. >> >> for the clinton campaign brian fallon clinton campaign. he joins us live from
clinton headquarters tonight. brian, your thoughts. you just heard that what state are you looking to and where do you feel most confident and most, perhaps, vulnerable for secretary clinton tonight? >> i think one state we have been watching closely throughout this campaign. one state have you seen secretary clinton travel to again and again is pennsylvania. pennsylvania is a state that donald trump really needs. it's hard to imagine a path for him if he doesn't win pennsylvania. and right now if you look at areas in philadelphia, we're hearing reports from city officials there suggesting that they think they're on pace to break the standard from 2012 where you saw almost 70% of registered voters turn out in the city of philadelphia. we look good in philadelphia in the city limits. we also like what we are seeing in terms of the outer ring suburbs outside of philadelphia based on secretaryppeal with suburban women especially. that's the state that i think has the trump campaign nervous tonight. >> you know what? pennsylvania is always a state that republicans think they can get. it's like lucy and the
football. it always seems to be taken away. isn't it really that the fact that secretary clinton had to go there with a big event that you all are concerned that it's very, very tight tonight? >> well, look, it's definitely been a battleground state throughout this campaign. i think back in the spring it was a state that the trump campaign targeted. they certainly spent a lot of time there we are not limiting ourselves to any one path. take a look at a state like florida. you just heard meg begin talk about it. if you look at democratic parties broward county home of fort lauderdale, big county along with miami dade where you're seeing record-setting turnout already even before the polls closed, you saw them set a record based on early vote turnout and the turnout today. if you look at hillsborough county and other area that they just talked about, tampa area, another place where barack obama won 53% of the vote i think in 2012. turnout seems to be up there, too. if you looked at the early vote patterns coming in to today, you are seeing record turnout and i still think that the story of the night tonight is going to be the
surge and hispanic vote in a state like florida have you seen hispanics turn out during the early voting phase in florida more than a million hispanic voters that was more than double 2012. i think you're seeing a rejection of donald trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric and seen that the fruits of a strategy that has targeted those voters, secretary clinton has had a kinship with that community dating back to her time in the early 1970s registering hispanic voters in texas. one of the earliest steps in the campaign back in may when she went to nevada and talked about how she wanted to expand on president obama's executive actions there. and i think that you're seeing they are responding to that. >> yeah, clearly the demographics are shifting and we are noticing that in the exit polls. talk to me quickly about ohio. and, you know, that state where it looked like the trump campaign was well positioned going in to tonight. it seems -- it seems pretty tight if you go in to looking at who might be coming out, according to the exit polls.
>> right. well, i think that going in to tonight, the trump pain probably viewed ohio as a must have. they have to view it that way. we have multiple pathways. we have fought very hard in ohio. and i think that there was some promising signs during the day today in places like hamilton county, franklin county. we're going to have to watch and see what the results are tonight. the relate is we have multiple paths and the trump campaign basically needs to draw inside straight at this point. they need to win ohio, pennsylvania, florida, and steal a state like a michigan if they're really going to have a chance at 270 electoral votes. >> a lot of those states are tight as we sit here. brian, we appreciate your time. >> we are approaching a critical moment tonight, 7:30 p.m. eastern time. the poll also close in three more states and they include two big ones. very crucial battlegrounds, north carolina and ohio. you just heard it discussed. either one, either one of these states could decide the entire race tonight and the balance of power in congress as well. we are live on the ground in 13 minutes with that. >> and will the tar heels
state north carolina come down to a turnout for minority voters. the gang from "the five" will join to us talk about that. they were just outside earlier and live in times square the crossroads of the world in the marriott marquee sign. hey, there we are. >> that's beautiful. >> fox news live coverage of election night 2016 continues. ♪ ♪ our eyes...they have a 200-degree range of sight...
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>> 7:20 here in the east. we are now just moments away from polls closing in some of the biggest prizes of the night. west virginia and two battle grounds, ohio and north carolina. jenna lee is live in raleigh, north carolina tonight. jenna? >> the polls were supposed to close at 7:30 for the entire state of north carolina, megyn. that is not the case now. i just got off the phone call with the state board of elections and there will be extensions at certain precincts in durham county, a key county here. so in certain precincts, you will be able to vote up until 8:30 tonight. why is that a big deal? and what happened? what happened for some voters is when they showed up to cast their ballot, they weren't able to check in. it was like showing up at the airport, trying to get on your flight but you weren't able to check in at the desk. you couldn't go through security. you couldn't get on your plane. that's what happened to some voters and that's what led to the extension. you say is that a big deal in a state like north carolina? it is. in 2008 president obama won by such a small margin. it came down to the
difference of two voters per precinct in this state in 2008. so if two voters voted for the other side, barack obama would not have won this state. that's how tight the race here is in north carolina. the same was almost true for mitt romney. if 17 voters per precinct swung in another direction, he wouldn't have won. so that's why this is a key ruling by the state board of elections. we will continue to watch the results in durham county and otherwise. a lot of breaking news here in north carolina. we will keep an eye on it for you. >> jenna, thanks. >> we are just getting word that dover, new hampshire is also extending polling until 8:00 p.m. so you have some issues in some key states there minority voter turnout in the battleground state of north carolina could be a deciding factor tonight. clinton want campaign has been putting in some extra work into that state as we just heard. president obama visited north carolina four times campaigning for hillary clinton and since the democratic convention. clinton has made seven trips to the state for nine rallies. let's bring in the host of
the five kimberly guilfoyle, juan williams, eric bolling, dana perino and greg gutfeld. dana, let's start with you. what are your thoughts? >> well, it's one of those nights where i remember six months ago during a primary you asked me what's going to happen and i made this really amazing call where i said it's going to be a total landslide or too close to call at the end of the night. i think we have a little bit more clarity of what's going to happen. one statistic stuck out to me especially in florida. latino voters in florida have doubled since 2008. democrats have outregisterred the republicans by 600,000 to 50,000. registered voters in florida. and i think you are seeing that in some of those early returns that we saw. and also, i think some of these people that are out there voting and waiting and one of the reasons that jenna lee just reported that she did is turnout is really big all across the country. people are waiting in lines for hours in order to get their vote. >> um-huh. eric bolling, what do you make of that dana explain on the latino vote in florida. >> massive.
if you break down florida, i 4 corridor. in light the increase in la latino vote is right in the central part of that orange county, orlando area. high puerto rican vote. high puerto rico ca registration for votes. for me straight up i-4 corridor straight up indicator who wins the i-4 corridor may end up winning the election. down south all blue. up top and over the panhandle it's a lot of red that i-4 corridor can flip florida either way. trump needs florida. we will be calling it early if he doesn't win florida. >> greg, i have been waiting for your analysis. >> i know. finally, you and me. and megyn. you know. [ laughter ] >> and megyn, too. we say it's all about the ground game and we know for a fact that democrats are amazing at the ground game. they even get the dead to vote. that's literally the ground game. we talk about the changing electorate. i want to talk about our changing tolerance of the
past. some things that wield think would have sunk a candidate over the past year didn't. i find this the most refreshing thing about this candidacy is that for terrible people like me, who have an awful past, i still might be able to run for office. >> you have a chance. >> i have a chance. >> so you're saying their's a chance. >> you have a really crappy temperament. you have that, too. >> i have everything wrong with a human. caller: a lot of issues. >> but we love you anyway. >> on the temperament, numbers, kimberly, martha was reporting 64% believe he does not have the temperament to be president, 34% believe he does. what do you make of that. because something that did serve him statistically in
tie baited. in campaign ads. every debate across the country suggested he is someone that lacks the temperament. therefore, the fitness to serve as commander-in-chief. when you see numbers like that. it suggests that it's something that resonates. we will see enough to suppress some of the voters that might be turning out for hillary that remains to be seen. >> you know, juan, i was struck by brian fallon pennsylvania. think about it pennsylvania, that should not even be a problem. but it looks like, again, the math may be changing. >> i think the math is changing because that's demographics. and i think demographics are the key part of the story tonight. we just heard talking about the importance of the latino vote and the fact that you see increase in the number of latinos voting in a state
like florida. let's look more generally at the map. talk about pennsylvania, virginia, part of the rust belt. where again you have large working class white male dominant population and surprise that michigan would be in play. that pennsylvania could be in place for democrats because historically. union backed. union driven voters have often been part of a democratic machine. that ha that may longer be the case. instead you see the democratic axis swinging toward the south. here, this is what surprised me. i think this is part of the big story tonight. we talk about minority votes. what's going on in north carolina. with questions about, hey you can't change the rules right now. as i understand questions about early voting procedures that have been changing in some counties. federal judges getting involved. and the importance as we just talked about, keeping some of those polls open late to try to compensate. i imagine that the trump is
going to be fighting back. but that now becomes a key part of the story if north carolina is decisive. >> although they wanted to keep some open in nevada. they lost that with the -- trump did. and they have got some open in new hampshire and two counties extended in north carolina. >> trump saying they were letting people show up to vote past the poll closings and the democrats argued no, they had been in line prior to the poll closing. they were just letting the long line of people vote and they agreed to keep the records of those votes. >> in charlotte, mecklenburg to pick up on your point, megyn. early voting structure was such that it moved away from the black neighborhoods.
>> this map, i would put money against stirewalt, can i do this state for state with him. if trump holds those three down, you have to look back at the map and look at the next level. then you go to missouri and michigan. doesn't win pennsylvania. is there a mitch began? if there's not a michigan or wisconsin. that's your next hour, then you have to wait until the west -- until the mountain states close and see if he picks up nevada and then you have to look back to see if he got those four electoral votes in new hampshire. if you do, you can go hour by hour and see tick every
single one of those off on the path. if he doesn't, then there is basically the path closes. >> i think that's the short version. you have got to peak. >> other paths michigan or wisconsin. >> right. >> haunted house. there has got to be a way out. there has got to be a way out. i don't think there is a way out. >> stand by. >> 7:30 p.m. on the east coast and polls have just closed in three more states. representing another 38 electoral votes. fox news can project that donald trump will win west virginia by a wide margin based on fox exit polls. there is some cheering outside. chris stirewalt. >> is that stirewalt? >> i don't know. fox news can also report that hillary clinton has a lead in north carolina although it is too early to declare a winner in this key swing state it is also too early to declare a winner in the bellwether state of ohio
where trump had led clinton in preelection polls for the last three weeks. >> speaking of the buckeye state, fox news can project now that ohio senator rob portman, a republican will win re-election by beating former ohio governor ted strickland; the democrat. it's too early to project a winner in the north carolina senate race where richard burr, the republican trying to fend off a challenge from democrat deborah ross. that race is very tight. let me just talk for one second about rob portman who ran in a race that ohio was not the easiest race to run. he was running. he was not a big trump supporter. he was protrade. this is a guy who ran a race in his own territory and managed to make it really stick. in fact, he was giving money to other campaigns around the country because he didn't need it. he was up 15 points or so going. >> he might win for number one best race run. congrats to him.
want to go now to karl rove for analysis. karl, interesting. too close to call in north carolina and ohio at this hour. your thoughts? >> look, i think these states are going to keep us up late tonight. north carolina we had the same situation we had in florida in the early vote. republicans cut the margin of the democrats at 122,000 more republicans this year voting early. 22,000 fewer democrats voting four years ago. remember, this is a state where mitt romney won and the republicans have gained an advantage of 144,000. but there are 273,000, nearly 274,000 more unaffiliated voters. people that don't identify with either party. and both parties have been fighting for their share of this in the big cities it's likely to be clinton and rural parts of the state more likely to be republican. but this is where the race is going to be settled tonight. and it's going to keep us up, i suspect, very late. if we look at the early vote in north carolina.
republicans increase their early vote, raw numbersevery on7 counties except one. halifax county and the democrats saw their salute early vote total decline in 58 of the 67 counties in the state. so, it's going to be a lock night and we're going to be counting them by the onesies and toussie in north carolina and potentially the same in ohio where we have gotten conflicting results out of early voting. democrats had a fantastic weekend where they bumped up their numbers pretty dramatically in cuyahoga, especially in franklin and hamilton county, cincinnati. but, again, it's going to be very late in the night, i suspect, before we're going to be able to see the pattern emerge decisively in ohio. >> you know, the other thing we should point out is the governor's race in north carolina is very tight. we can't call that it's too close to call. that is pat mccrory and roy cooper. that was seen as another race, karl, where that state really comes to play.
remember, the bathroom law, the transgender hb 2 law that says you had to go to the bathroom of your birth certificate. that became an issue not only of the governor's race but the senate race there with richard burr and the presidential race. >> yeah. what's interesting is this was not a priority of pat mccreditory, the governor. he was a business friendly former mayor of charlotte, and a business executive himself. and so this was not on his agenda. forced largely through the state senate president fellow named fill berger put it on the agenda of the legislature. they drove it through election year and immediately caused the entire republican brand in the state to be engulfed in controversy. ironically mccrory has fought his way back because of a hurricane. the hurricane that hit the east coast turned the people's attention to what was going on, what was the state doing to help the people who were flooded or lost their homes and mccrory performed admirablably,
dominated the media made his crawl back. we will see how close it is tonight. ironically enough, if it were not for a bad storm, it might be a big margin storm and his handling of it closed up the race pretty smartly. >> karl, we will check n just a bit. brit hume, monica crowley. guy benson and nomiki konst. let me start with you. how is this shaping up? >> perfect. it's a great night for democrats. listen, hillary has run impeccable campaign. she has obama institution. she has the progressive base for the most part. she has the hillary supporters running against a man who did not work well with the republican party. he doesn't have the ground game. doesn't have the messaging. he has been unable to stay on course to this election. physical she already had a map that worked in her favor. we think this is going to be a very good night. there are only a few scenarios with very small
chances where she will do well. and really just comes down to the senate. >> guys, look at the numbers so far. the republicans did in the end get behind donald trump. so if nomiki is right at all that it's going to be a good night for democrats, is that because of independence? is that because there are more democrats on the map than we have seen for republicans over the past years? >> combination of those factors i would say it would mean that somebody who has a disapproval rating around 60% is going to lose an election. if that's the case, that should not be much of a shocker. i'm looking at. so numbers. florida is going to be close. down 10 points to mrs. positive side for the g.o.p. looking at some of these senate races: looking pretty good.
he has put up a heck of a fight. and donald trump had tremendous head winds. did not have support in the party. historically unpopular. terrible numbers in the exit polls on temperament on experience, on knowledge of the issues. look, if clinton wins, she is the president, she is a genius and all the people around her are geniuses. i wouldn't say that she has run impeccable campaign. >> all these things we are seeing in waives of exit polls, monica is the gender gap which we have seen throughout this election. killing can't gender gap when it comes to women and men. women tend to be favoring hillary clinton by big margins. and this was problem that was identifiable and has dogged donald trump for a long time.
>> this is very interesting dynamic happening tonight, megyn. you are right. democrats have always enjoyed a traditionally large gender gap going into any race but particularly the presidential. donald trump, heading into this race, had even greater, more gender gap because he was alpha male candidate and said these indelicate things about women in the past and that dogged him. what we saw in the closing days of the campaign in terms of the polling is he was able to make up ground among women. so about a week ago, two weeks ago he was running about a 20 point gender gap. more recent polling 12 points. he had managed to make up ground among women. it's still large enough that it's making a real difference here in terms of benefiting mrs. clinton. >> shah chandelier scares me. [ laughter ] >> it's coming down. >> i was listening, mondayca. i really was.
>> brit, your thoughts. >> let me pick up what monica was talking about. nationally this could change. hillary clinton is winning women by, what, 14 points. well, donald trump is winning men by 9 points. that tells you most of what you may need to know tonight because there are, first of all, likely to be as there were the last time out more women in the electorate. fewer men. and if you win by 9 and the other party wins the women the larger group by 14. it's not too hard to figure this out. that's where this is likely to be. in some states, south carolina, for example, it's much closer. if you are wondering why georgia may be in play tonight, that's where you see a genuine gender gap in which hillary clinton, let me see if i have it here. i think i do. georgia, she is winning by 13. he is winning by 19. but in a state like georgia, that can tell you why it's fairly close. he is winning by 19 among men and she is winning by 13. >> in particular, brit, give
us the history on the republicans and white college educated women. those typically go republican. >> they have in the past. >> yeah, in the past. >> what we have seen in the early rounds of the exit polling tonight is they are not. and -- going for the republican candidate. and consequently he has had a lot of ground to make up there because right off the bat he was not the kind of candidate that could appeal to both blue collar men and some blue collar woman women and the more educated demographic. >> tucker, we're 19 minutes plus away from our next polls, including florida. we spent a lot of time, both campaigns, actually talking about florida. it's really interesting. >> of course. and about the demographic shifts in florida. big number of puerto rico can voters flying the collapse in florida how they might effect the outcome. we might find out. i'm amazed by. so numbers relative to earlier races. just because they don't match what we expected,
really what i expected. so, trump is doing better apparently, according to the first wave of exit polling better among black voters than mitt romney did four years ago. is he doubling the number of black votes by percentage than romney did eight years ago. is he getting exactly the same percentage that romney got. i mean, that's all we have talked about. it doesn't mean is he going to win. doing better with voters under 30 than romney did. i'm not saying is he going to win. maybe something wrong with some the assumptions that some of us have had going in to this i wouldn't be surprised we miscalled a lot of this, i certainly have. we may be missing a story here if these numbers turn out to be true. >> a point i was just asking. so experts back stage about that. so the numbers we have been talking about, the huge latino turnout. >> right. >> we're talking about florida. and but on the national basis, it's looking only one percentage point higher than it was four years ago. that was what martha reported 11% hispanic vote. 10% four years ago. >> can i just butt in a
little bit on this question. yes, he may be doing no worse than romney but romney did terribly. george w. bush in 2004 got and when he ran for re-election got over 40% of the hispanic vote so getting 27% of a growing block of voters is not very good. >> still about the same white vote as romney, roughly the same. >> but it's also 2% less of the total electorate than it was two years. >> that's exactly what we talked about though for the last year. i think it's a totally solid point. no disputing that but the whole year has been dominated by the idea that there is not a single hispanic voter who will even, you know, share -- shake hands with donald trump. is he so horrible. if he is given the same number as rom anything, i'm not saying that's a great number i am saying there are other factors we have not taken into account. >> not a good performance. >> i'm not saying it is but it's much better than you would have expected if you believed the analysis which has been wrong if this is true. >> now you feel how they
felt on the debate stage. [ laughter ] >> mr. trump, secretary clinton. >> never let's up. he knew he had you. >> chris, i agree with tucker. >> thank you, brit. >> you always do. >> i have a friend in brit, i appreciate that. >> i agree with chris. >> all right, now we are aapproaching the biggest haul of the evening. polls in 16 states including d.c. at 8:00 p.m. among those two of the biggest in this election. pennsylvania and florida. >> we think we know how d.c. will go. but we will see. plus, the balance of power. which party will control the new look congress? and you didn't just vote today, you also shared some of your thoughts and pictures with us. so best from social media straight ahead. >> they're calling that thing chandy, the chandelie chandelier. chandy for short. ♪ ♪ ♪
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we are quickly approaching. [ laughter ] >> sorry. >> i'm sorry. >> that didn't go well. >> the shandi got in the way. >> this is how bret and i are starting. >> we are quickly approaching the biggest moments of the entire night. >> voiceover. >> okay. >> and whichy. poll polls close 8:00 eastern time. among them battle grounds florida, pennsylvania, and new hampshire. rick leventhal is standing by in pennsylvania. molly line is in new hampshire. we will start with molly. molly? >> i think we lost molly. can we start with rick, maybe? >> why not? >> okay. >> rick, go to you. >> it was the chandy. oh, there is molly. molly, go ahead, molly.
sorry. we are ready. >> hi, brit. sorry. in speaking with both sides from the political aisle here in new hampshire they both have a certain confidence that things will turn out well for them in the state looking at turnout numbers. so this is still a nail biter of a race. of course, there are just four electoral votes here at stake in the state. both sides in this white house run have taken it very seriously with appearances from both of the major candidates in the last 48 hours. hillary clinton here on sunday. donald trump here on monday. major surrogates also making appearances here like president barack obama, joe biden, both vice presidential nominees as well. this race is all about getting the turnout, of course. and what they need is what happened back in february, with 22% loss by hillary clinton to bernie sanders she wants those sanders voters to turn up for her today. we are waiting to see how the numbers turn out on that. donald trump got his first big win back in the primary season need those voters to come out as well. another thing to watch here the senate race. the republican incumbent senator kelly ayotte facing a very tough challenge from
maggie hassan. both women have strong remain recognition. strong resumes. these are two strong females facing off in really a mega race which could go either way. tremendous amount of spending here. over $100 million spent in this small, small state. just about 1.3 million people live here. so a lot of the money going into the possibility of the balance of the senate being at stake. bret? >> molly line in new hampshire. molly, thank you. >> now to pennsylvania. one of the more hotly contested states leading up to tonight. there are 20 electoral votes up for grabs in the keystone state. rick leventhal is live for us near allen town, pennsylvania. rick? >> and with a bit of news, megyn. for the last few months republican senator pat toomey has refused to endorse donald trump. senator toomey told reporters that he did in fact vote for donald trump. he said it was a tough call for me. that he wrestled with this but that it was easy not to vote for hillary clinton. we expect senator toomey here at this hotel ballroom around 8:00 when the polls close. he is supposed to watch
returns in the hotel room and then come down here to address his supporters. his democratic opponent katie voted this morning with her husband and three daughters. she criticized toomey for not coming out sooner to endorse trump or say who he would be voting for. this by the way a race too close to call as of yesterday. the most expensive u.s. senate race in the nation with roughly $160 million spent in total on this very important seat. we can tell you the voter turnout was very heavy here in pennsylvania and certainly in the lehigh valley. we were at the bethany united methodist church this morning busiest polling place in lehigh valley. well over 100 voters in the first hour and 1700 by midday. the secretary of state says he expects some 80% of pennsylvania's nearly 9 million voters to show up at the polls before they close in just a few minutes interest now, guys. >> wow, thanks. >> we can make a call, we're told, we can call south carolina for donald trump right now. the decision desk calling south carolina for donald
trump. and that puts it into his column as well. let's check in now with our reporters covering the major stories of the night. carl cameron is with the republican nominee at trump tower. jennifer griffin is at clinton headquarters here in new york. james rosen is in washington. monitoring the big senate and house races. karl, let me go to you. what's the feeling there at trump tower or trump campaign, i should say and where they stand? >> well, they have been saying all afternoon that they are conscious cautiously, nervously optimistic. a moment just a while ago kellyanne conway said it was unfortunate that the republican national committee's infrastructure wasn't fully applied as best it could have been for mr. trump as if to point out the deficiencies of the overall organization on the rnc's end. with that said, they are seeing very strong turnout in the i-4 corridor of florida. they think in north
carolina, separate from raleigh area, a big democratic bastion they think they are doing well getting turnout there the polls haven't closed yet. the trump campaign looking to keep the momentum going as mr. trump likes to say he saw a spirit in the days and clearly the polls were tightening. the question will be whether or not he has the capacity to come up with enough working class whites to overcome what appears to be a problem with the clinton campaign's success with african-american and latino voters. when the campaign manager starts to blame the rnc, it's not necessarily a good sign of where their move might be later in the evening, bret? >> throughout the night we will be adding up the electoral votes right now 43 for donald trump and clinton 3. but obviously it's early in the night. we're making these calls as they come. jennifer griffin, we talked to brian fallon earlier. it was interesting to hear him talk about pennsylvania and, you know, how they are really working to see how that state goes. pennsylvania, michigan, these rust belt states that
they have concerns about. >> i think they have the biggest concern, bret, according to the officials i have spoken to with cuyahoga county and they have not had the turnout there that they would need in order to win ohio. but what has been a surprise today is you saw that last-minute effort in michigan. it seems to be paying off. they seem to be doing well in michigan. there were lines, long lines this morning in detroit. that rarely happens i'm told. and there were a record number of mail-in ballots. absentee ballots in the detroit area. so they feel very good about michigan tonight. i think if you look broader than that, they are still a little concerned about pennsylvania. but the turnout in the northwest part of philadelphia seems to be extremely high. the get out the vote efforts there with the large number of people who turned out last night to see president and mrs. obama in front of independence hall seems to have helped them in the philadelphia area, bret. >> james, we're watching a few senate races and obviously, again, the senate turns with a net gain of
five seats for the democrats. four, plus the white house, if they win the white house. one of them we are watching is obviously north carolina's senate seat with richard burr and deborah ross down there. and also indiana where we have evan bayh, against representative todd young. >> that's right. there's a number of different states we're watching closely, missouri where the incumbent republican roy blunt is trying to fend off a very strong challenge from the democratic secretary of state there jason kander. so far of the senate races that were thought to be in play and not necessarily safe seats, fox news has only called one of those races. and that is in the state of ohio. where the incumbent republican rob portman, as you were noting earlier, has finished and finished strong and fox news has called the election for him. former democratic governor of ohio ted strickland running against portman has called to congratulate him. we have a few other results that we can report to you. none of these were thought to be in doubt rand paul retaining -- the republican in kentucky retaining his
seat. tim scott in south carolina. pat leahy, the democrat up in vermont. so, so far, this is just too close to call, bret. and we're expecting that it's going to be quite a long time before we know, at least several hours whether the republicans will retain control of the senate, the house not in doubt. >> >> i want to go back to shannon bream she is watching twitter instagram and facebook what are you seeing. >> new data coming in from facebook. talking about the top five policy issues people are chatting about today number one government ethics no doubt driven in part by the fbi investigation into hillary clinton's private email server. number two, religion. number three, race issues. we have seen this race near the top on facebook chatter all over the summer and in to the fall. number four crime and criminal justice and at number five the economy. that's consistently been there now let's go to some of your posts from home michael tweeting this we are all on board the trump train. by the way tickets are still
available. morgan anete posting i took my dog to the polls super execute. clearly georgia voters you see the georgia peach there you are going to love this many tweeting about this donald trump cake. it was just wheeled into the election watch party at the hilton hotel. we are told it was made by melissa alt. the face is modeled chocolate. both of cake. we are told it took 50 hours to make this. if you want to be in our digital chandelier all you have got to do is this alongside the cake from donald trump, just snap a pic. send it our way by using #fox news 2016 and we will see you right here along with everybody across america who sent in their photos. shannon from the and whichy, back to you. >> at the and whichy. great to see you shannon. >> we do want to show you one other thing in the studio. that is our tower of closings. i think that's what we are naming it tower of power. >> you can see when a state is called it goes to the color. indiana, kentucky, south carolina, vermont. and there you see the :00
we are only moments away from the largest number of poll closings of the night. voting wrapped up in 16 states, plus the district of columbia. 172 electoral votes up for grabs in this historic presidential race. welcome back to fox news election headquarters. i'm bret baier. >> hi, everybody. i'm megyn kelly. we'll start getting some results from major senate races as republicans fight to keep their majority now. the democrats need to pick up five seats, a total of net 5 tonight to take control. polls closing shortly in places like pennsylvania, new hampshire, florida, and illinois where republican incumbents face heated re-election campaigns they will be watching not only the top line item but republican numbers very closely to see who is going to have the power in the senate to get their confirmations through, depending on who wins the white house. >> and you are talking about a lot of tight races new hampshire with kelly ayotte and sitting governor maggie
hassan. you are talking about illinois that looks like heading in to election day that mark kirk was going to lose. in just about 10 seconds we will find out as we count down to the next poll closings. biggest night of the night 172 electoral votes. >> it's 8:00 in the east. fox news can now project that republican donald trump will win missouri, based on exit polls. he will also win mississippi, oklahoma, and tennessee. according to the fox news decision team. >> you can hear the people in the crowd outside of the fox news channel cheering at some of these results. meantime democrat hillary clinton will easily win her home state of illinois according to exit polls. mrs. clinton is performing strongly on the east coast where fox projects she will win new jersey, massachusetts, maryland, delaware, and the district of columbia. >> in maine, one of the two states that does not use a winner take all system of awarding electoral votes,
fox can now project that clinton is ahead although it's too early to make a projection in that state based on fox exit polls it's too early to project the winner also in pennsylvania. although clinton is said to be leading there. >> watching that one very closely. polls have also closed in two other important states that we are not yet ready to call. florida and new hampshire. the sunshine state represents a whopping 29 electoral votes, while the granite state represents just four and, yet, both are crucial to these candidates, especially donald trump. >> now, just remember that you're looking at these numbers, and the percentages and that's the raw early vote that we have right at the beginning when the polls close and we are also looking at these states with the exit polls as well. so when you look at the percentages, that's not really where they stand overall. >> the importance of florida cannot be overstated that that is a critical must-have state to donald trump. any path to the white house trump has is florida period end of report.
can you try to do it without other states. you cannot do it without florida. we are all watching that one extremely carefully. they have both been making a big play with new hampshire in the last couple of weeks. >> fox news can project that democratic congresswoman tammy duckworth i mentioned her of illinois will unseat republican senator mark kirk giving democrats a key pickup tonight. democrats need four with the white house. five without to take over the senate. depending on whose elected president. >> that one was not a surprise in illinois. fox news can also project that connecticut senator richard blumenthal a democrat will win a second term by defeating republican dan carter. in maryland, chris van holland will beat cathy in the race to succeed retiring democratic senator barbara mccullski. want to turn now to delaware where fox news can now project that democrat john carney, a former aide to
vice president joe biden will defeat collin bonini to become the state's next governor according to exit polls and partial vote returns. >> okay. let's bring in our panel really quickly. brit, your thoughts as we get this data? no surprises there. mark kirk, obviously, was a vulnerable senator from the beginning. >> it gives you an idea what the political atmosphere is like in the u.s. congress. mark kirk is basically a moderate. moderate republican can't survive. you can't survive as a moderate in these parties these days. which is why there is no real center in neither the house or the senate. which is why it's so hard to get things done. mark kirk loses. he was never for trump from the beginning. he has been very critical of trump. he did everything he could to run a campaign that would make him acceptable again to his home state of illinois and he is gone. and that's the atmosphere in which we operate. >> although he didn't have a great debate performance when he challenged tammy duckworth's heritage. >> never a good idea.
note to senators. >> iraq war veteran. he has run a perfect campaign but i think what beat him was his profile. republican in a blue state. just let me add one more thing. looking at the percentage of the vote and state after state we are getting exit polls we see this almost uniform percentage of women versus men. about 53%, 54% women. 47, 48% men in state after state after state. hillary clinton rolling up big margins with women and donald trump rolling up but smaller margins with men. which tells you where we may be headed. >> what do you make of the fact that new hampshire is too close to call tonight, chris? a state that i don't know that they were seriously considering it in play prior to the comey announcement. it certainly came back into play and donald trump made a hard push there the last two weeks. >> absolutely, he did campaign there hard. he seemed to think, it's a funny thing that we talk about new hampshire as a democratic state because it has been a rock ribbed
republican state so long. i just want to say one thing about the senate races. in this -- the class of 2010, in other words, they run every six years, so the people that are running the republicans for re-election now, were elected in 2010. 2010 was not a presidential election year. it was a midterm election. it was the obamacare election. it wars the election of huge victories by republicans. the problem is midterm election you get a much smaller electorate about 90 million people voted in 2010. 130 million people vote voted in 2012. and we assume again tonight so it's a much bigger and different election. these people were elected in a small, very republican, very aggressively anti-obama 2010 and a lot of them won in blue states like illinois. like wisconsin. like new hampshire. and now they are trying to defend in a completely different atmosphere in 2016. and that's going to be a problem. >> just to give the viewers some perspective.
they are predicting the democrats could take control of the senate tonight. not fox news decision desk. coming in tonight analysts saying watch for democrats likely take control of the senate. they were saying they could win between four and best case scenario dream scenario for the democrats would be 7. four would not be unexpected in a year where the republicans are defending 20 -- how many 20. >> 24 seats. >> democrats 10. and it will be the reverse in a couple of years from now in the next election. that's likely to switch back and forth. >> exactly. we can make another call the fox news decision desk can call the state of rhode island for hillary clinton as you see on screen the electoral votes will tick up throughout the night. we will move those electoral votes 68% to 67%. on the bottom of the screen rhode island not a shocker because that's expected to be a democratic strong hold. >> and 27 270 is the magic number. 270 is what they may get to become president.
a lot of these we have called so far have been baked in. we haven't had any surprises in the electoral college so far on either side. but the night is still young. >> bill hemmer is upstairs at the data deck with carl rove. >> good evening again. some of these states right now in ohio looking at franklin county, that's columbus, it's early but clinton at the moment is out performing, at least on a percentage basis the vote that barack obama got in the same county four years ago. we pop down here to north carolina. just kind of get a measure of what's happening here in the tarheel state. this is wake county. that's raleigh, you know, they were both there yesterday. just watching this early returns she is a tick below 60%. obama was right about 56% four years ago. just show you down here in florida real quick. and starting to see some of the strength down here in the southeast. this is just north of palm beach county. and trump is doing better than say mitt romney did four years ago. again, just watching this
returns coming early. i want to swing around here real quick and bring in karl rove and all of this. we promised you guys we would bring you up to speed in 2016 with modern day white board. >> made fun of little whited board. look at this one. big electronic white board. >> what do you want to focus on. >> you talk about three swing states. we will keep coming back to these states all night. these three states, florida, ohio, north carolina three big swing states are absolutely critical as has been said before to donald trump winning the presidency. you just pointed out important thing. all three of these states have early voting and all these three states tend to report at the beginning of the night when their first returns some in those votes. like in florida we are talking 6.9 million votes come in at the beginning. we tend to see a democratic advantage. that question is can that democratic advantage last through the night a long way as you pointed out accurately, she is ahead in these early votes in these states, this thing is going to tighten up as we go through the election.
>> swinging trio. we will keep coming back. if trump takes these states, if he loses florida, the election is over. but if he starts to take some of these states, we're then going to be concerned about what is the hole in the blue wall. the 242 electoral votes in 18 states, the democrats have won the last six times. these are the states where he has been focused in the last couple of days. pennsylvania the biggest, michigan the seconds. wisconsin and minnesota. he has quote to break into the big blue wall. the bigger the number and states he takes. >> this is the you were midwest. >> great lakes. >> this is 1988? >> republicans haven't won these states since at least 1988. >> they contested bush came within two and a half points in pennsylvania. in wisconsin bush came within 5500 votes of carrying the state and 11,000 in 2004. so there have been efforts to take them. but they haven't been successful. and the question is can he pull a bring out of blue
wall, preferably with a large number of electoral. >> we will get electronic eraser in a moment and show you something fancy. >> see? the magic of rove. >> at least stepping it up away from the sharpy. >> i kind of like it. >> joining us now former new york city mayor and senior advisor to donald trump rudy giuliani. mr. mayor, great to see you tonight. thanks for being here with us. let's just talk about florida first off the bat and what we're being told is some pretty big numbers in terms of the latino turnout conventional wisdom is this would not be good for donald trump. your take on it? >> my take a little bit different than the latino turnout in other states because you have to include in that a cuban vote. i realize there is kind of a split in the cuban community between the younger cubans and older cubans. but it isn't the same wouldn't be the same thing as the latino or hispanic vote in new york or california. so it isn't going to be as
dominantly pro-obama. i know that cuban community and little havana. i happened to spend a lot of time there for a totally irrelevant reason. the fact that i love cigars. and i know all of those families. i know all those families very well. the pedrone. don pepper garcia. >> taking a walk down memory lane. >> they're big trump supporters. so that vote is not going to be quite as hun litani thick as it looks. and i don't think the jewish vote is going to be as monolithic as it always is. >> still predicting a trump victory in florida? >> no, no. i'm telling you, i don't know. look, it's going to be close. florida. i would never predict florida. karl should never predict florida, either. he knows what happened in 2000. my goodness, florida is not a predictable state. but i think it's still a very, very viable state for donald trump. i think he can still win florida. >> mr. mayor, florida has
changed since you ran for president and had a florida strategy. the demographics have changed. not only in that i-4 corridor. but also throughout the state. it's a higher population there were more early votes cast in florida than there were cast in the 2000 elections it's a different state. >> it is a different state. it doesn't mean it isn't necessarily a state in which there aren't an awful lot of trump supporters. i have been up and down florida. i guess i must have spent a total of a week and a half there. the support for donald trump in the northern part of the state is overwhelming. the support in tampa is very strong. i will admit it was a little bit weaker in orlando than i expected it to be. and i think the, basically the palm beach down to miami vote is going to be democratic but i don't think it's going to be as strongly democratic as it used to be. >> mr. mayor, we have been looking at the gender gap
tonight and the fact that women are not coming out for donald trump. traditionally republican women. married, suburban, republican women are not apparently coming out for donald trump. and this has been an issue for him in the earlier polling. should he have done anything differently in your mind to get that group behind him? >> i will tell you that in two days. take me about two days to figure out or maybe three or maybe longer to figure out if something different had to be done. if he wins, you know, sometimes when you win, you don't think anything different had to be done. if you lose, you think everything different had to be done. it's hard to analyze in the middle of an election. he is going to overperform with the white male vote. i think he may do a little bit better with the african-american vote. both in terms of the percentage that shows up and his percentage. he spent an awful lot of time going back to august in every speech talking about what he wanted to do for the african-american and the hispanic communities. i think that's going to pay
some dividends for him. this is the first republican candidate that spent as much time on that as at least i remember. only one i ever remember doing that was jack kempf. >> mr. mayor, thank you very much for your time. >> thank you, thank you very much. >> we do have a call to make. fox news decision desk can make a call in the florida senate race, marco rubio will win the florida senate race against patrick murphy. the democratic challenger representative. this was a lot tighter than people thought it was going to be, actually, heading into this race. and that could go to what we were just talking about that breakdown of hispanic, latino vote. but it is possible also that that vote split tickets and it might be a factor. aruba wins this race. remember, he ran for president. decided he was not going to run for senate after he lost that primary battle and then said you know what? i think i am. >> he was exscoreiated by
trump and others primary battle for missing so many days of work in the senate while working on presidential contest and tried to run as outsider by saying this is not the reason i'm returning to the senate i hate the way washington works and gridlock. when he lost the presidential bid he decided he didn't hate the senate as much as he suggested that he did. he won there. sometimes politicians say things that aren't true. i know chris, i hate to be the one to break it to you won there tonight. interesting to watch. rubio was just booed by a group down in south florida who were calling him a traitor because he wound up saying he was going to vote for donald trump and that he would back donald trump. so there is a question about whether some of the hispanic community in what are traditionally blue leaning counties would come out for aruba, even though they're not republicans. they voted for him in the past because they liked him whether they did or didn't. >> i will tell how is happy is mitch mcconnell because this was a major win for his
ability to possibly hold onto the senate majority in the senate, and if patrick murphy won this race he had president obama. he had hillary clinton, he had vice president biden all campaigning down there. and it was closing. now it seems that this is one race that the senate is going to hold on to and that other questions are in missouri, new hampshire, and others tonight. >> tight races almost finished voting in arkansas. and keeping an eye on all the latest numbers for you as the 2016 election results continue to pour in. >> bill o'reilly joins us coming up. we are recapping the biggest races so far and so much more live from fox news election headquarters. that's all still ahead. now that fedex has helped us simplify our e-commerce, we could focus on bigger issues, like our passive aggressive environment. we're not passive aggressive. hey, hey, hey, there are no bad suggestions here... no matter how lame they are. well said, ann.
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basically coloring in with the red or the blue throughout and we will monitor this throughout the night. >> remember when times square used to be filled with exotic dancers and bars? thousand it's electoral college results. what a shift. >> naked cowboy is there somewhere. let's bring in bill o'reilly who you normally see at this time as the host of the o'reilly factor. we're also joined by syndicated columnist fox news contributor dr. charles krauthammer. bill, your take about where we are and what we're seeing. >> well, trump is competing pretty well, i think, across the board. but the army of people that his campaign expected to come out that were disassociated with polling and things like that hasn't materialized. but the florida thing he has got a chance to win florida because of the panhandle vote in ohio it's hard to tell because we don't know where the votes are coming from right now. north carolina, little
dicier for trump there. but he is competing in virginia. although northern virginia usually comes in later and that will sweep hillary clinton. but, i think that at this point it will be foolish to make any kind of broad assessment of what the vote is going to turn out to be. it doesn't look like there's going to be any shocking upsets or shocking vote tallies anywhere. it's a slug-out right now. trump needs the vote all to go in his favor. charles krauthammer, did i make any mistakes? you are my guy always trying to keep me on the straight and narrow. did i say anything wrong? >> so much errors, so little time. [ laughter ] >> look, at this point i think the trends of the sort of the general analysis analyses favorable ratings would tend toward clinton. she actually beats trump in the exit polls on honest and
trustworthy, which is a pretty odd finding and at odds with the latest in the polls. i think what's really interesting is i think it was known a little earlier is that trump got 27%, 28% of the hispanic vote, which is almost exactly what romney got. i think the big difference is there appears to have been an enormous increase in the registration of hispanics. so they turned out. it's the turnout in very high numbers which i think is so damaging to trump right now. >> but you're not seeing any kind of sweep in florida, for example, heavy hispanic state. >> yeah. >> very, very possible. >> but there just aren't enough hispanics. >> trump could win florida. >> there aren't enough hispanics in florida or elsewhere to turn a big add van tang into a sweep of the state. we always knew it was going to be close. and right now it's hard to
say how it will end up. but she is slightly ahead. and for her. >> yeah. >> for her this is not a must win state. >> underperforming. right. see, i don't think trump is underperforming. i don't think he is overperforming. and as brit hume pointed out, if he doesn't overperform in some place like michigan or pennsylvania, she'll win. he has got to overperform in one of those key states. but he is not underperforming even though some of the exit polling is dubious on his behalf. would you cede me that. >> look, underperforming in this election is not reaching 270. so that's the only under performance that matters. do you want to compare it to the latest exit polls or the latest polling that was done on the eve of the election, that's fine. but the fact is that he has to carry the big three swing states, florida, north carolina, and ohio.
and to penetrate the blue wall right now that looks like a pro prospect. >> which do you think hillary clinton will take out of those three. >> i think it's likely she will take florida. >> really? >> and toss-up whether she takes north carolina. ohio, i think he has the edge but, again, she doesn't have to have all these states. >> where do you think her strength is going to come in florida? it's pretty much a dead heat now. and then the northern counties in the central time zone are the ones that remain to be counted and that's trump territory. how is she going to win that state. >> i think it's a 2% lead now with over 80% of the vote in. that is not a dead heat. it's a substantial advantage. >> okay. i don't have that latest information. >> well, it helps to have it. >> she -- so, clinton is up by 2% in florida right now as we speak? >> i think it was 49% to
47%. something like that. we can verify that. >> yeah, if that's the case, and the better odds are that she'll win. but, remember, that is trump territory up in the north in the central time zone. in overall -- in the overall -- overarch of the vote, has anything surprised you? >> what surprises me is two main issues that pro-spelled trump's campaign that won him the nomination. and that people were looking to to say sort of an ideological revolution going on in the country. and that is immigration and trade. what is very striking about the exit polling is that on immigration the country is roughly 3 to 1 for legalization, which you wouldn't have known by looking simply at the primaries. even more interesting is the one where people think there was more of a national
consensus to overturn the general consensus over the last 50 years on trade. and that is hostility on trade. exit polling shows only a 3 point spread between those people who think trade is costing us jobs and those who are giving us jobs. and that, i think, sort of undermines the idea that the country as a whole has turned against it. if you look at it, it's basically 2 to 1 against trade on the republican side. roughly 2 to 1 in favor on the democratic side, which means we are not necessarily headed into a brexit type economic isolationist type consensus in the country. >> no. >> from what we had thought. trump rode it in the primaries because he discerned it as the issue in his constituency but it does not extend far beyond it
those, i think, are the two most striking findings in the election. >> all right. so you're going to make a prediction that clinton is the next president? >> if you force me, i will take it. >> all right. charles krauthammer, now we throw it back to our election guys and we appreciate you having us in. thank you. >> all right, bill. thank you. i didn't get the prediction. what did you decide? >> looks like she is winning. >> we are going to call now the fox news decision desk indiana senate for representative todd young. this is a big win against senator evan bayh, former senator from indiana, a big name there in indiana. and then when this race started, evan bayh was up double digits. todd young fought his way back. is he 44 years old. currently a congressman. he is a marine and he had a lot of support from the republican party. this is a major hold. this is the retiring dan coats seat for the
republicans and one that which does paint the better picture. with aruba holding in florida and young winning in indiana that perhaps if republicans shoot the gap, they can hold on to control of the united states senate. a lot of races still yet to call including new hampshire, missouri, wisconsin, and others. megyn, let's send it up to you. >> we are hearing that marco rubio will make remarks around 8:40 or so. 8:45. we will stay tuned to hear what he has to say as he manages to secure a victory and conventional wisdom is that he is probably looking forward again to four years from now to set himself up because while he was defeated in the primary season, even his greatest attractors thought he might have more hope on the national scale presidential race the next time around. so he has managed to eke out a victory tonight. now there is a lot of speculation if the rest of these senate races come down as they were predicted to come down given what we have seen tonight with indiana
and florida that the republicans possibly, possibly could hold the democratic wins to the place where they have a 50-50 senate. if hillary wins the presidency then democrats have control of that chamber and they will have sort of divided government in the senate where, you know, the democrats, if history is any guide would control the committees and they will have to work together, have to work across the aisle. if the democrats dual retain control or gain control of the senate and she becomes president she is going to get her supreme court nominations confirmed and other nominations confirmed we will wait to see. it's 8:29 in second seconds here in the east coast. we are waiting now for another race call. we have got several states that are too close to call as you can see from the bottom of your screen, pennsylvania, florida, new hampshire, north carolina, all of those it's not a mystery. we're not completely shocked that those are too close to call. in particular, florida and by the way we are hearing it's very tight in florida right now. very tight in florida. that's a state where you have to have a mandatory
recount if it's too close. so, we may not know the answer in florida before the end of this evening and we'll find out whether that even matters as these states continue to come in. so now we are four seconds away from next race call and we are prepared to make that one for you. now. it's 8:30 p.m. here in new york city. the polls have now closed in the state of arkansas. it is too early for the fox news decision desk to project whether donald trump will win arkansas where hillary clinton served as first lady for 12 years. of course, the clintons have a long history in that state. also fox news can now project that donald trump will win alabama's 9 electoral votes according to our fox news exit polls and partial vote returns. again, i want to take you back to florida. because this is an important state right now. we were just looking at the bureau of elections down there. post the results as they are seeing it. and it is raise razor showing
trump slightly ahead in florida 3.99. and chiller just behind him by about 4,003,986,000. talking about a 4,000 vote difference there. as of a few moments ago. but, that -- i mean, anything can happen there. they are counting as we speak. let's figure out what all this means. and whether they can foretell anything from this. i don't know. these guys know though. they are the experts. carl. see anything you object to so far? >> well, things change really fast. state board of elections now says the count in florida is 4,266,000 for trump and 4,172,000 for hillary clinton. the panhandle of florida. oak loose is a, he is cam bea bay, very heavily republican precincts on the western side of the panhandle are starting to come in and he has now opened up. >> that's good for trump. >> yeah. he has now opened up a 1.1% lead. this will change again
within the next two or three minutes because central time zone is now coming in and those counties are overwhelmingly republican. >> so if you are advising trump tonight, how do you like these numbers? how do you like the way it stands at this point given what counties they have counted? >> i will be interested in what stirewalt says i will speak first and can he correct me. >> no one ever that just kidding i say it every night. >> i'm looking at the southeast. i would have thought that he would run slightly ahead of what mitt romney did because he is the home boy. he has march largo. he is not. and broward and palm beach is he not running ahead of where romney is. and that's not a good sign for him. now, he is also trailing in hillsborough. which hillsborough is a bellwether county. it is called -- it has voted for the winner 19 out of the last 20 elections. voted for the national winner and right now it's for hillary clinton. >> what part of the state is that? >> that's in the western edge of the i-4 corridor in the central part of tampa. and i would say.
this i would say that we have got to take this all with a grain of salt because so many votes were cast early. and those get counted first and get reported first. >> those are in these numbers we are looking at 4 million. >> and then as the evening goes on, the question is how much better does somebody do on election day than they did in the early vote? >> chris? >> well, look, the issue here as we always know, the i-4 corridor from orange county -- well it, goes all the way to the both coasts from orange county which is orlando and then tampa and st. petersburg on the other side. republicans have been doing worse in the tampa, saint pete area because it's gotten younger and it's gotten more diverse. now, the problem is up in orlando that was good country for obama. i was expectatio expecting to st clinton would not do as well in metro, orlando, as obama did. i expected her to underperform. and so far that's not the case. so far she is holding her own with these voters. >> i expected her actually to do worse. >> right. >> this is an area where
there has been significantly. for trump to do worse. i'm sorry. for her to do better there has been an area of a large amount of -- the middle class of puerto rico has fled to central florida. is now living in orange county waiting for the economy back home to get better and they have registered to vote and democrats say in orange and the surrounding counties, orlando and the surrounding area this is where the puerto ricans are registering as and central americans registering as independents not democrats. >> stand by. i want to get to dana. but first go over to bill hemmer at the board drill down deeper what we are seeing in florida counties. >> fascinating what we are seeing in developments there in what karl is looking there total vote number. this is the panhandle you were just discussing. we will keep an eye on that. almost like have you got a weight up here and counter weight down here. i was ticking through this i-4 corridor. let me go back for a moment here. this is tampa to the west. orlando in the middle. daytona beach up to the north. let's -- let's clear that off here. this is hillsborough county, okay? so she has got about a --
look at the percentage on this. it's 6%. four years ago, obama was at 53%. so, you examine that and store that data point away. and you come up the i-4 corridor. this is orlando, orange county. at the moment she is at 60% to his 35%. which is a pretty decent number. outperforming a little bit percentage wise from obama four years ago. this is seminole county. largely republican. mitt romney 76% of the vote in that county alone four years ago. so how is trump doing on the margins right now? he is a little bit below that about 73%. the trump team had talked a lot about daytona beach for some time leading up. this is one of two counties that romney flipped four years ago. and so in volusia county, daytona beach trump is right around 55%. comparison to 4 years ago. is he well outperforming the margins there. up here in flagler, another county that romney flipped four years ago, it was 53.7 at the moment it's 59%.
so now you start to look at the raw numbers, karl, and you look at perhaps 35,000 votes in this county, perhaps 20,000 in another. and it's as they say it's real money after a while. and that's when you are starting to see just a little bit. this is palm beach down here. trump has mar-a-lago. she is just under 58%. and obama last year was right about that number. 58.6% compared to romney. so, it's -- you can fish and feel and find a lot of what adds up to -- just a super tight race between clinton and trump. 4.2 to 4.1. four years ago the raw numbers were -- this is 75,000 votes four years ago. in a state where you had 8.5 million cast. i think, karl, we were talking over the weekend you typically would get -- you typically would get about a 20% to 25% increase in new
votes over a four year period? does that apply to this? >> well, that's not -- that's what happened between 2000 and 2004 was a 25% increase. this was expected to be a year in which there is not going to be a dramatic increase and we are having a significant increase in a lot of states. i would say something, bill has put his finger on something. i used to have a place, excuse me, in the panhandle,. >> can i cover for you for a moment. [clearing throat] >> i used to have a place in the panhandle it has more in tune with southern alabama than it does with southern florida. >> is that escambia? what was that. >> i was in walton, they used to call it the redneck riveria. but affectionately. you look -- you also look at the eastern part of the i-4 corridor voyeur like shah and flagler, that's daytona beach. they have nascar. that is more blue collar. that's more working class. that's more middle america than the increasingly diverse tampa saint pete. so they share something in common those two parts of
florida. and that may be a reason why trump is doing a little bit better than romney was. >> so i want to get to dana but i have to ask you chris as somebody who can actually has been part of the team actually making these calls and trying to figure out what counties have yet to come in. what do the numbers we have so far tell us from the counties we have already gotten. can you tell anything? i mean, with trump slightly ahead, is there -- is it just the panhandle now we are waiting for which is heavily republican? or is it -- are there -- do you believe there is a trove of democratic votes still out there to come in? >> yeah. and i will tell you what i would do. i would get that 2000 video ready get those hanging chad videos. get those could youd. it couldn't be any doggone closer could it it's about as tight as it gets. yes more vote count comes in from the panhandle. yes overwhelmingly republican. if you look at how he -- can we see jacksonville? >> sure can devol county up here in the northwest. for this year 49 to 47. >> show mr. and mrs. america what it was last time.
>> 2012,. >> so i thought trump would be doing better there. i thought that it would be better for him there. where are these blue collar white voters that need to storm to the polling places to them? he needs them to show up? and who is going to show up and apparently who is showing up are a lot of first time hispanic voters. i think it's going to be tight, tight, tight, tight. >> let's go back to volusia and/or one of the panhandle counties. this is where the supporters are showing up who didn't show up. >> santa rosa where huckabee is hanging out tonight. >> i think he is in the green room downstairs. >> he looks town. >> he has a house on the peach. >> i will tell you when i think back about elections past, and i think about 2,000 to 2004. what we were doing when you were running bush's campaign in 2004 we were watching the i 4 corridor. we wanted to see what was happening in the difference of the percentage of the
groups between bush and kerry over that four year period. did it go up or did it go down? did it go higher or did it go lower? we go back to 2004, this -- it's how he won the states and i remember the night you were on the air saying that we have won florida and the democrats were on the air saying no, we've won florida. we would look at the numbers and we would run up from hillsborough county here in tampa where he was a 6, 7 point winner in tampa. we followed that line up into polk county and eventually orlando. look at the margin then. it was about a point. that's when we were, -- i was working at another shop then, but we were able to make the call and say, you know, you're wrong, bush has won florida and now we move to ohio to watch the outcome. >> if trump manages to pull off a victory in florida, i mean, it's absolutely critical to him. he cannot win without florida and that can hope up everything for him. if there is any position where the networks have to call florida for hillary clinton trump knows is he
done. if he retains florida in the win column, it's a totally different ballgame. there is no other state that he must have that has even been called yet, right, nothing in the questionable category that's gone toward her unlike some of these senate races. but if he loses in florida, thanks to, in part, a large hispanic turnout, dana, it's fascinating because so many latino voters who have been reacting negatively to trump felt like this would be their day where they could come and speak seek their revenge if you will and maybe that hasn't happened on a national basis thus far. we don't have the evidence for that yet. but if it happens in the singular state of florida, that's enough. >> florida and also i think that you have seen a lot of focus on the democrats in nevada. so those are two states where you would have more latino voters. i also want to see in florida if trump's enthusiasm, which he had a ton of can beat her organization, and really comes down to that, earlier on in the campaign, donald trump said that organization is overrated. he might be right. if you have that kind of enthusiasm that you can get
people in like daytona beach they were talking about or in that panhandle. you saw his rallies there. they were amazing. >> 20,000 people in some circumstances. >> enthusiasm. most people probably did come out and vote but then quietly the democrats were registering, i said earlier tonight, 600,000 new a latino voters since 2008. republicans registering 50,000. >> wow. what a story this is going to be with all eyes on florida right now. a must-have state for donald trump. and we continue to look at ohio, to look at north carolina. to look at pennsylvania. all of which are too close to call at this hour. 8:42 here in the east. bret, it's getting exciting. >> it's getting very exciting. just back to florida quickly. a couple of quick points in the exit polls. if cuban americans, 53% 41% donald trump. other hispanic 70%, 25%, hillary clinton. i just want to point out as we go to break.
when i was in tallahassee for that recount, we were in the back of a ryder truck covering those things and bill hemmer was at another network with a big spread and a lot of buffet food it was much better but we got through and as we come back. >> but now we'll have chandy. >> the chandy is ours. >> as we take a look at times square tonight the fair and balanced analysis from fox news election headquarters continues. this is getting interesting, folks. see ya next year. this season, start a new tradition. experience the power of infiniti now, with leases starting at $319 a month.
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breo contains a type of medicine that increases the risk of death from asthma problems and may increase the risk of hospitalization in children and adolescents. breo is not for people whose asthma is well controlled on a long-term asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. once your asthma is well controlled, your doctor will decide if you can stop breo and prescribe a different asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. do not take breo more than prescribed. see your doctor if your asthma does not improve or gets worse. ask your doctor if 24-hour breo could be a missing piece for you. see if you're eligible for 12 months free at mybreo.com. >> welcome back to america's election headquarters. we are watching tight races on the presidential level, florida, north carolina, ohio, too close to call. we do have a house call out of florida. and this is interesting. it's florida 26. we can representative carlos curbelo the republican will win against
former representative joe garcia, the democrat. now why this is important is that this is a quintessential battleground district in a swing state in florida. this has a heavy latino presence. the fact that the republicans can pick up this race is significant. it includes miami suburbs, all of the florida keys. you have a situation where curbelo holds on to this seat and it tells you a little bit, perhaps, about how the presidential race is that tight. it is the swingiest district of a swing state. >> swingiest. i like that. >> okay. now we are seeing a lot of signs now that this race is tightening and that this isn't far from over. we want to talk about it now with our panel. dana loesch is here, mike huckabee, former governor, richard fouler and mark thiessen. good to see you all. let me start with governor huckabee who is not in florida. [ laughter ] >> thank you. >> i thought i was
invincible there for a while. >> what do you make of the raiser then margin trump according to the latest margin i just saw was up by 102,000 in florida. >> we are all hanging by chad. it may that way all night long. the panhandle vote is going to be over 80% for donald trump. it will be overwhelming. one of the things i take note of is that the people who ran with trump are doing well and winning. the people who ran from trump, the republicans are getting hurt tonight. i think that says a whole lot about where this election is going to go. >> dana, what do you think? >> well, i hope it's not too close to call. i don't want to see another 2,000 take place. but i do think it's interesting, the turnout as well. we heard a lot about enthusiasm. i think some of what plays into that enthusiasm is just no other better way to put it hatred for hillary clinton. there are a lot of people who really dislike her. and that's really -- that's a great motivator for a lot of people who normally -- >> -- they are cheering you outside. they agree with your point, dana. >> when we talk about
enthusiasm, and i hate saying it. is hate -- it sounds so bad hatred of a candidate's policies, let me put it that way. of a candidate's policies that really is a good motivator to get people out to change that and put a stop to it. >> mark thiessen florida trump is up right now according toes numbers. ohio still too close to call but trump is looking pretty good in ohio or has been coming in today at least. we have not been able to make a call in virginia. no call in virginia, which she was supposed to be running away with up until basically the comey announcement. 11 days ago. no call in pennsylvania. same story there she was supposed to run away with that this race could be turning right now. >> in virginia the same thing happened with eddy gillespie in the last election. everybody thought virginia was going to go easily to the democrat and he came within a hair of winning that state. >> preelection day polls in virginia are a little ugh. >> exactly. interesting pattern in two states you mentioned
emerging ohio and florida must win states for donald trump. is that in both of those states, the republican senate candidate has run way ahead of donald trump. rob portman has run the best campaign of anyone on any ballot in this election. he was predicted to go 18 points ahead of his rival. what did he do in ohio to do that? he reached out to democrats and labor unions and independence. he ran a positive optimistic campaign. he reached out to women voters and tried to expand beyond the republican base and he had a fantastic ground game. 6 million voter contacts in a state that only had 5 million votes the previous year. and now it's too close to call for donald trump. he has won. florida mukasey has won. restill don't know what's happening with donald trump. something that these senate candidates are doing in these same states that donald trump is not doing on a national level and they are way ahead of him as a result because they are campaigning on a hopeful, optimistic agenda. good for conservatives to learn from this night that that message still sells. that's what still sells in
the republican party. >> okay, marc, donald trump is doing pretty well. he is hanging tough in all of these states and richard tonight, aren't democrats a little worried as they look at this map? >> we always thought this was going to be as they look at the map? >> we always thought it was going to be a close election. >> not that close. >> true. what you're going to see tonight is the difference in enthusiasm and a turnout machine. the numbers that i've been given is in florida, they had a million latinos early voted, two times what it was in 2012. while donald trump might have enthusiasm on his side, what the democrats have in ohio, in hamilton county, ohio, is they have a ground game. they're literally going to homes saying we're take you to the polls and the trump cam pap doesn't have that. >> you're talking about the early vote in florida. it's in this batch. >> but we have -- >> so we have this vote in. so now you're looking at a florida that's changing by the
minute. >> four countries, hillary clinton is up in all four and there's still more points to come in. i'm from broward county. in 1992 bill clinton ran up the numbers in broward county and hillary can do it tonight. >> yes, you've got a great ground game, you've given people a sandwich, a shot of whiskey and a ride to the polls. >> is that how they do it now? >> donald trump's supporters are going out there. >> this race is a demographic shift in this country. donald trump is depending upon a group of voters that -- there's a larger hispanic population, a larger african-american population. people doubted that the african-american community would come out. those elections are an anomaly because we had a black president at the top of the ticket. in this race hillary clinton is performing better among african-american than john kerry is. which i why i think she's win
florida pretty handily. >> let me say one thing. the rnc would push back hard is what richard was saying, that the rnc had an organized ground game within even though trump doesn't. the rnc made up what was lacking in trump's ground game. >> the point is as you just mentioned, the rnc was able to make up for that. for all of the talking of the amazing ground game from hillary clinton, would we not see greater disparity in some of these early results come in from states like florida, which that went blue last couple of times. i mean, florida, this was something that hillary clinton -- >> what about michigan. >> -- pretty confident. exactly. look at the results coming in. >> let me make one point on that. what the clinton campaign is depending upon is high population counties which take a longer time to come in.
broward county is going to take longer to come in than the panhandle just pace based on population. at 11:00 this map is going to look a lot different. >> we're going to get right down to the wire and boom all of these are going to go blue? >> if that happens, i'll give you credit for that. >> stand by. joining us now with more, bill burton, former deputy white house press secretary for president obama. great to see you. let's start with virginia right now. >> happy election day. >> let's start with virginia where right now they're saying that trump is running up the score in the rural southwest of that state. and he's performing well in the commonwealth of virginia tonight. now she's still waiting for that vote on northern virginia which tends to be more democratic. but you tell me whether that's a surprise to democrats and hillary clinton's campaign. >> no. not at all. i think that if you look at the geography and the demography of virginia, of course the votes
are going to be for trump. but the massive migration of people is in northern virginia, arlington, fairfax county, that's where the largest share of the vote is. that's where hillary clinton and tim kaine are running strong and that's why she's going to win the state. >> what about florida? >> there's a lot more drama to the state. florida, i mean, broward county is barely counted yet. the numbers right now i think are predominantly from areas that are strong for republicans, not totally, but it's missing a lot of key counties that democrats do well in. and so in florida, once again, trump needs to win florida in order for us to keep paying attention to this race tonight. and it's not obvious that he's going to. >> he's up right now by 100,000 right now. but you've got a situation -- >> without votes being counted in democratic strong holds, sure. >> some haven't been counted but some have. >> that's right. >> and it seems according to our election analysts that that state is in flux and they can't say that all of the outstanding
vote is from democratic counties. it's done or he's going to go down. they're not saying that at all. they're saying this is a dog race and that remight be looking at another 2000, another 2000 when we had the hanging chads and the u.s. supreme court had to decide. we only have eight justices. we need nine. go ahead, bill. >> unfortunately for donald trump he would need to win a lot more than florida or be tied in florida for it to matter for which way florida goes. >> he hasn't been ruled out in the key states yet. he hasn't been ruled out not in florida, not in north carolina, not in michigan, not in virginia. >> it's early and they're still counting votes. and the democratic strong holds vn been counted yet. florida, yeah, it look like a tie right now and donald trump has more votes on the board. but even if hillary clinton loses there, she's in great shape over the course of the rest of the night. >> real quick, bill.
for senate race, how do you think it looks right now and was it poor recruiting with patrick murphy and evan bayh if they couldn't pull off those wins? >> well, you know what? patrick murphy and evan bayh ran pretty good campaigns. in florida for patrick murphy to have to run against marco rubio who ran far ahead of where donald trump is in this state, it was very difficult. i don't think it was a matter of bad recruiting. the republicans did the best they could in states that are used to electing republican senators and that's what you saw happen tonight. pence at the top of the ticket in indiana was a hard thing to overcome there. >> bill, we appreciate your time tonight. >> thank you. i don't know what he said. that was exciting. i want to find out. more than 150 electoral votes at stake at the top of the hour. >> polls close in 14 more states, just 3:20 from now,
arizona, colorado and michigan. all three have been contested by both candidates. the republicans typically win arizona but it's been somewhat in play this season and both candidates are going forcolorado and michigan, which was a late introduction into the dog fight category. and it is 9:00 here in new york and polls have just closed in 14 more states representing another 156 electoral votes. fox news can now project that hillary clinton will win her adopted home state of new york based on fox exit polls. fox can only project that donald trump will win the states of kansas, north dakota, south dakota, texas and wyoming. >> in nebraska one of just two states, along with maine, that does not use a winner take all system of awarding delegates, fox news can project that donald trump will win four electoral votes. it's too early to say who will
be nebraska second congressional district which represents that state's fifth and final electoral vote. meanwhile hillary clinton is ahead in new mexico, although we don't know whether she will prevail there which is really interesting. because donald trump visited new mexico in the final days of the campaign, a blue state. >> clearly they saw something in their internal polling that the rest of us may not have seen in the public polling. it's too early to project winners in perhaps the two most important battleground states of the hour, arizona and colorado. trump has been counting on arizona's 11 electoral votes to keep his presidential prospects alive. while mr. clinton hopes that colorado's nine electoral votes will help cement her path to the white house. >> and just now a colorado judge has rejected extending voting after a computer glitch there, so we're following that. fox news can project that democratic senator chuck shchumr
will win by beating amy long. schumer is widely viewed as the democrat leader of the caucus and he would be the majority leader if the democrats take over the joord. harry reid retiring. >> and we can now project that the following four incumbent senators will be reflected, arizona's john mccain who secures a sixth term by defeating anne kirk patrick, jerry moran of kansas, john hoven and john thune of south dakota who beats jay williams tonight. >> it's too early to pr jekt where the democrat will take back his seat from republican johnson who took the six four years ago. a fine gold come back would
be -- in louisiana where the jungle primary is making it difficult to project who will replace david vitter, a republican, there are numerous dand cates from both parties on the ballot and the winner must get more than 50% of the vote to preclude a runoff which would be december 10th. >> and this just in ready to make another call now. the foxx news decision desk is projecting that donald trump has won the state of arkansas in the presidential state. this of course a state of which bill clinton was governor for a number of years, first lady of hillary clinton out of arkansas for 12 years as well and this state typically votes republican and has done so tonight with donald trump. >> as you look at the electoral votes that will be tallying up throughout the night on the bottom of your screen, will be ticking to 270. that's what you need to win the presidency of the united states. and there you see it, 97 to 139
for donald trump. let's bring back brett hume and chris wallace. i know you're straining to see the big wall. >> and nowgone. >> your thoughts? >> i have been checking in on some of the guys who do the forecasted projections and they model u it, nate silver, the blog that's been so successful. he now has clinton with an almost three-quarters -- almost a 75% chance of winning the election but that's coming down in his number. and he says 69% chance that republicans hold the senate, which i think is kind of interesting. >> stunning. >> that's a big headline. >> interesting. >> and about florida -- >> it looks like a better -- slightly better than even chance that trump win florida. >> but the question is what else? but things right now, chris wallace, are looking tighter than the clinton camp expected. we haven't made calls in virginia, in michigan, in
pennsylvania, colorado, arizona on his side, but a lot of those blue states that we thought were going to be blue that we haven't been able to call. >> i think we're all, at least i'm coming to the conclusion tonight -- conclusion is the wrong word. open to the possibility donald trump could be the next president of the united states. >> the crowd -- >> i just said it's a possibility. no. look. florida -- i believed as we sat down here at 6:00 tonight that hillary clinton was going to take it. athink a lot of us bought into the idea that the hispanics were going to be the difference. now we're doing to single votes. this could go either way. north carolina could go either way. ohio could go either way. new hampshire could go either way. i think you would still rather be in clinton's position than trumps as we sit here right now but you can certainly write a scenario. he has not lost any state that he must have. he's competitive and within the
margin of error that i think we thought she was going to put away. he could be the next president. >> i talked to republicans over text and reaching out. they don't believe the virginia vote, the lead is going to hold up there. they think the northern virginia vote is just going to overwhelm and shrink that lead. the fact we haven't called it for hillary clinton is a big deal. and then you get into the rust belt states and pennsylvania, into michigan. you even get into minnesota. >> what appears to be happening is clinton is doing well in all of the places where she thought he would and donald trump is doing better than expected in the rural areas, the blue collar areas where we thought he would do well. you look at the advantages and look at the map saying hillary clinton still has an advantage but he's in this. he is in this at this hour. >> according to the latest numbers, it looks like trump is up 140,000 votes down in florida and the hely favored democratic counties, broward, miami-dade
are substantially in. so i don't know that there is a whole treasure trove of hillary clinton votes waiting out there. >> i think, you know, you have to -- we need to keep a real eye on broward. the minority population is sufficient there that if it comes in at the end for her -- >> some of the precincts in broward have not come in yet. the flip to the other side, if all of these states that are too close to call now flip her way, she could win a landslide victory. but as you said he's still in this right now. >> let me make a call on the house side for the democrats, florida 7, democrat stephanie murphy will defeat republican representative john mica. and it's a newly drawn district. this district was seen as most competitive for democrats in florida, split for obama and romney in 2012. but this goes to the democrats
and it takes out a 12-term incumbent republican. >> did you say she's a fitness instructor? >> no. she's a college instructor. a former pentagon -- >> not a collagen instructor. >> no. she's a college instructor. >> there we go. that makes more sense. >> takes out a 12-term republican incumbent. wu we saw one house race in florida called for the republicans in a swing district. this one called for the democrats in another one. >> which leaves us knowing absolutely nothing. >> zero. >> other than florida is a tight state and could go either way. right now in florida you'd rather be donald trump than hillary clinton. >> right now at this moment. he's ahead by 100,000 votes. >> in that must have state. they all went down there repeatedly. what we also saw with the campaigns over the last couple of days is the obamas went to
pennsylvania, went to michigan. hillary clinton had all of our best surrogates in ohio and michigan and both of those states are too close to call. we saw an erosion of her numbers after the jim comey announcement a couple of weeks ago. and then they had said there may have been some leveling off in advance of the actual vote. so how is that playing out tonight as the voters are actually showing up at the polling stations? we don't know yet. it's 9:09 in the east. want to check out on the campaign headquarters tonight and see what's happening there. let's start with campaign karl cameron. >> the audience has begin to grow here in midtown manhattan. and you can begin to see why it's been predicted for months this race would come down to the wire. polls showing in the battleground states, polls showing nationally prior to the election day that it was within the margin and it could have been either candidate's race. and now as we begin to get a little later into the evening,
it's clear that those principally important battleground states, florida, north carolina, pennsylvania and ohio are just as close as the polls had suggested. in several hours perhaps things will break differently. but it's not at all clear that this might not be the kind of thing where the margins are so small that we might not get victory speeches or concession speeches from either candidate and find ourselves pulling an all-nighter until we get the counts from the precincts where hillary clinton is going to have a minority pullout or donald trump is going to find that those working class white voters are coming out in droves for him tonight. >> next let's go over to jennifer griffin at clinton campaign headquarters and get the sights and sounds over there. >> there may be a good reason now that they decided to call after the fireworks over the hudson. the clinton campaign said all along that hillary clinton is
superstitious and she's not counting on anything until the votes come in. we now know the run of show here at the javits center, we know that she will be joined by several members of what they call mothers of the movement, members of the black lives matter movement, sabrina fulton, trayvon martin's mother, also joined by katy perry. katie perry has sung for the crowd outside. been a long-time supporter of hillary clinton. she comes from a republican party and she got out, has 75 million twitter followers and he got out the vote for hillary clinton earlier on with millennials. she's also be joined by ka zeer khan. they were hoping to appeal to the muslim voters in michigan when they were seeing their poll numbers fall in michigan. >> as the first states were called, hillary clinton was
watching, jen, in the peninsula which is only one block away from trump tower. that is the proximity if you look at the race coming down to one block here in new york city. >> absolutely. in fact we hear that she is surrounded by her family there, her granddaughter in fact is wearing a little dress with an h on it, we're told. >> and let me ask you one more thing. is there a sense, jen, that they are really worried about what they're seeing? i mean, do you get a palpable nervousness about winning the race? >> they're not letting on. but i will say they're not walking around spiking the football. if you look at the phone calls she placed this morning, she did telephone interviews with radio stations in key states where they have been concerned, north carolina, detroit, as well as into new hampshire. >> okay. jennifer griffin has done an amazing job covering the clinton campaign for us. as you look at the electoral
votes on the wall, 139 to 97 and the states that we're taking for both republicans and democrats. we're back here with the panel, including chris stirewalt and karl rove rundown from the data deck to give us a download. so what do we think here, gentlemen? >> not a single swing state has been called. every one of these states that is on the map red and blue is what we anticipated at the beginning of the evening and we have several states, north carolina, florida and ohio that are seesawing back and forth and in some instances showing real surprises. 150,000-vote margin now in florida and over 100 -- >> for donald trump. >> for donald trump pen and 130,000 -- 100,000 in north carolina though that one is going to change rapidly as charlotte comes in. >> does that typically come in late? >> it varies. the early vote comes in first. again like all of states,
significant amount of the vote is early and absentee so that gets reported early. even if you've got a small number of precincts being voted, you've got a large number in. >> some of the online projectors, other news organizations that crunch the numbers are suggesting that trump has an 58% chance now of winning florida. what is it going to take for our decision desk, no pressure, guys, just wondering what is it going to take? what are they waiting for in. >> when it's right. it will be right when it's right. >> what are the ingredients. >> i wish nate silver every good thing and i hope they have a wonderful time with their projection models but when they call it will be called and stay called. >> megyn is going to walk over there if you don't watch it. >> look, a large part of broward and palm beach are still out. these are democratic counties. how much of the panhandle has actually come in.
and these are -- our decision desk is among the best out there. let them do their work. >> among? what are you talking about among? >> man, you know, if i said you're the best you would be insufferable on the data deck. >> brett hume? >> i think it's the best. >> that's all you have? >> but he's right. i think that's the most salient point of the night. >> who's going to win florida? >> i think it's going to be narrow either way. it's not going to be as close as 2000, god forbid. but my gut tells me that it might be him. >> let me ask this question. will we know tonight who the president is? >> we may not because of north carolina and nevada and some other states. we may not know until tomorrow morning, meaning after midnight tonight. >> we're going to get a flop here pretty soon on the states with the northern tier states on
which donald trump is banking, about pennsylvania, about michigan, about wisconsin, about minnesota. we're going to get a flop here pretty soon. >> what does that mean? >> a lot of data is going to come in. enough raw vote and we're going to see what looked to be unusually close races, whether or not this is going to flop his way or her way. >> go ahead. >> two quick points here. there are a couple of counties. you and i were talking about this earlier, chris. loudon county, va va being one. so fash tonight in loudon county hillary clinton is doing well. >> northern virginia hasn't come in and there's going to be a ton of voting in northern virginia. >> and in hillboro county she was doing well there but yet she's trailing in the states. some of the great counties that have been bellwethers because of
their makeup may turn out not to be this time. >> but remember, got to be careful about reading too much into partial results in florida because again the early vote comes in, it's counted first, reported early and the vote on election day is oftentimes different than the vote in early voting. one more quick thing. we had those three states, ohio, north carolina and florida. if he wins all those three, remember, in order to get to the presidency, he needs to break the blue wall and that's why chris's point about pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin and minnesota is so critical. he's got to break in there even if he carries the other states. >> he's in play in all of them tonight at 9:17. hasn't lost a single state that he needs to win the presidency. >> speaking of not losing states, republicans are winning states in the senate. senator johnny isaacson will defeat his democratic challenger and will get over 50% of the
vote there precluding a runoff january 10th. there's that one. >> that's how they're feeling. we don't want this election to go on and on any longer. it has been a joy, a pleasure for all of us. >> i'm taking this personally. i wanted to come back on december 10th. >> you may be here into tomorrow. tomorrow i'm going over to cohost "live" with kelly rip. >> may not make it. >> u i'm starting to worry if i'm going to make my hit. >> is she talking about north carolina. >> probably looking at the counties tonight. >> better bring the show over here. >> she'd love it. >> we are awaiting calls in several big battleground states coming up at any minute actually. the flop so mentioned. >> mentime the house speaker paul ryan getting ready to speak in wisconsin. we'll keep our eyes on that. stay with us everybody as the big night gets bigger right here at fox news election headquarters.
you are looking live, times square, crossroads of the world and there you see the national popular vote as it stands right now, will continue to fill in throughout the night. the electoral vote stands at 139 for donald trump and 97 electoral votes for hillary clinton. we are going to be seeing a lot change shortly, we believe, with some big states coming in. and we want to check in with some of our reporters in battleground states. let's start with steve harrigan in florida. steve? >> reporter: brett, if you told hillary clinton's campaign that they would be ahead by 200,000 votes in miami-dade and another 200,000 votes plus in broward county, they would be happy with those results. the southern democratic leaning counties were the counties that gave president obama a narrow win four years ago with just a
200,000 vote surplus. but apparently that is not enough. the only explanation would be extremely strong passionate trump support in other parts of the state. so the normal route to democratic victory in florida, one up big margins in the south and hang on. they are running up big margins in the south, the democrats are but apparently not enough to hang on so far. >> we have another call to make. the fox news decision desk can call the connecticut presidential race for hillary clinton tonight. not a surprise there. but hillary clinton picks up those 7 electoral votes. so that adds to her column now at 104 to 139. >> we're keeping our eyes on so many critical swing states tonight that we're not able to call yet. i want to get to john scott live for us in columbus tonight. >> reporter: we're at the headquarters for the rob portman senate campaign.
he accepted victory earlier. the national republican snairt senatorial campaign is going to beat a path to his door to see how you run a race. he started this one ten points down, won big tonight over a popular former governor ted strictland. he kept donald trump at something of arm's length during this race. trump is having a separate party -- trump's campaign is having a separate party here in columbus. but there is the feeling that rob portman's efforts here may have helped trump mightily in this state. the last returns of course showed trump about three points ahead here in ohio. but still, as you know, too close to call. we'll be here to continue to watch the race results here in ohio. >> john, thank you. jenna lee in raleigh, north carolina. over to you. >> reporter: bret, during the american revolution the british referred to the state of north carolina as a hornet's nest of
rebels. you can see the rebel lows spirit tonight in state of north carolina. you have 2 million democrats and 2 million registered republicans but you also have 2 million unaffiliated voters. this is where the mystery remains tonight. who are these unaffiliated voters. during the primaries they broke for donald trump. but who are they tonight is a big deal, are that they the millennials, the women, the rural voters, no one knows at this point. we're keeping an eye on the results as they come in. let's head over to a top hillary clinton surrogate and supporter, missouri democratic senator clara mccaskill. senator, thanks for being here. i want to get your thoughts about what's happening tonight, what we're seeing, what you're feeling. >> well, i mean, we always knew this was going to be a close race and it is close. it's still too early to know exactly how we're going to get the path to victory but we're
confident that hillary clinton will be elected tonight. >> senator, you're one of 25 democratic senators up next time around. as you look at the senate landscape in the wake of this presidential race that seems very tight, what do you think about your colleagues possibly taking control of the u.s. senate? >> well i think we will take control of the u.s. senate tonight. i think we've already picked up one seat and i think that there has not been any surprises so far tonight in the senate races. but it's still going to be very close. and i'll tell you what we all need to realize. no matter who controls the u.s. senate, we got to work together and get something done. this cynicism people have about their government, the way we fix that is by compromise and working together. so whether the republicans are in control or the democrats are in control, we've got to figure out a way to get things done through compromise. >> you say there's no surprises, but we have not -- you know, it's tight in pennsylvania. still tight in virginia.
it is tight in michigan. it is tight -- you know, it's tight in a lot of places that we didn't think it was going to be tight. isn't that a surprise? >> i'm not sure about that. i think we saw a lot of polling. i mean there's a reason why donald trump was going to some of those states because he saw the polls tighten. so i think -- this is -- we're used to close elections in the united states. we're a divided country. that's why i hope more and more americans realize we got to quit standing on opposite sides of the room and screaming at each other and we've got to figure out how to compromise and get things done or the cynicism and negativity about our government is just going to get worse. >> senator, megyn kelly here. original hi as we came into this night, the "the new york times" numbers cruncher was predicting hillary clinton had an 80% chance of winning florida. now it's down to 58%. do you fear that florida is lost? >> it's obviously going to be very close. there are still votes to be
counted. i don't know that anybody in america ever remembers when florida has been close. so i think it's going to be another close one in florida but we're still waiting for votes. when those votes come in, they'll tell the tale. >> thank you for being here. >> you bet. the night is getting exciting and it is far from over. i want to check in now with the panel, karl rove is here, chris stirewalt, joe trippy joins the panel and dana perino. y welcome to the party. >> i can't quit you guys. >> you'll always be our trail boss. >> oh, wow. >> okay. >> oh boy. >> anyway, let me start with you, joe on your take of what we're seeing on what appear to be pretty tight races in some pretty important states. >> it's going to be tight. florida always is. it just always is going back, i mean to hanging chads and everything else. >> but michigan and pennsylvania, virginia and possibly minnesota are not
always tight. >> that's right. but i mean at this point none of those have been called and i don't think they will for some time. she's got leads there. we'll see. the state i'm interested in is new hampshire, because that's the state that if al gore has won in 2000 he would have been president and it was only by a few thousand poinvotes. if the blue wall holds and she wins new hampshire, it's very tough for -- it's still very tough even with trump winning florida, north carolina, ohio, he can't get there from here. >> how are you feeling right now? as chris wallace points out, you got the early exit poll results and people were thinking, well it doesn't look that good for h him. and now it seems like there's been a shift. >> i'm not at all worried yet. i don't know of any democrat that is. >> i know a couple. we've talked to a couple that mentioned some things. >> florida was a state that i
really believed was going to be 50,000 votes one way or the other. >> they were talking a big game going in. i mean the early vote, the hispanic vote, the latino vote down south. a lot of confidence from democrats. >> she may still win florida. i'm not saying to count on it. but it's going to be a squeaker either way. i think that the real question is what does happen, does she hold pennsylvania which i think she will, does she hold michigan >> based on what? >> based on the votes that we're seeing coming? >> you're talking about data you're looking at tonight? >> our decision desk is the best out there and if they're not calling it, there's a reason for that. i'll say that out front. but they haven't called florida either. >> dana, the latest wave in exit polls has on the gender gap hillary clinton 54, donald trump 48 in female vote. and on the male vote donald trump 50, hillary clinton 41. i mean for all of the beginning
of the night where we saw the gender gap, this huge divide, it is closing. >> just the other night we were talking about gender politics and the number sort of for women that you need to win as a republican is 45. george w. bush was able to do that in '04, romney and mccain were not. they came just short of that. and so if donald trump is -- if these numbers hold, then obviously he has closed the gender gap. i do think that the democrats overestimated the power of voting for the first woman president. i think the republicans sort of underestimated how powerful that might be. but those numbers might turn out to be similar to what mccain, romney or even possibly george w. bush in 2004. >> the polls show us that the importance of the fact that she is a woman is very very low. >> very low. >> it was like, that's nice but we don't care. >> washed right over it. >> the gender gap existed because of things trump did and said. it wasn't the fact he's a man and she's a woom.
and the question all along has been could he generate enough support among men, in particular republican men and white working class men, possibly democrat or republican to overcome the deficit he's had with women in this race. and stirewalt, so far, at least in florida, it appears according to the latest exit polling he's doing all right there. >> he's doing fine there. it is early on this evening. elections don't get called until well after 11:00 or after when they do get called. we have had zero total surprises on this map. now florida, if trump comes in with a win in florida, that's not a surprise but it is very good news, would be very good news for him. a race that's been tied. he's led in the polls in ohio. him winning both of those states would not be a surprise. then we get down to the nitty-gritty. we get to north carolina nb, we get to new hampshire, we get to pennsylvania, wisconsin. we are not in the home stretch
yet and nothing weird has happened. >> i want to touch on an issue that may be touchy, karl. ohio. warren county, ohio looks like donald trump is underperforming mitt romney by 6%. and you had, back in 2004, bush down, you know, roughly 7% from that. if -- what are these counties telling you in ohio about trump being able to pull that state off? >> well, two things. first, let's -- i don't want to pass over something that chris alluded to. donald trump could win florida, north carolina and ohio and still lose the election because she has to find a big brick in the blue wall and pull it and grab it away. ohio, i've been looking at these numbers. if i were trump i'd be a little concerned because he is not getting what he needs to get in some of these traditional republican suburban areas. >> like warren county. >> take a look along the ohio
river. he is at or above where previous republican candidates have been. the question is there enough in the coal country that starts on the eastern edge in youngstown steel country and then runs across the ohio river border. are there enough votes there to come up short. e s >> serves him well on western pa as well. it's the same group of voters. >> that's right. and the question all along has been to some extent were there enough of these voters out there, these white working close vo class voters. were there enough of them. we knew he was not going to win the women's vote and might lose it by a large margin. could he make it up in that category and would that category turn out to be big enough. and would that establish what there's been so much argument
about since 2012 which is whether they were missing republicans, missing conservatives in the electorate that rear. i came more or less to the conclusion that there were not. perhaps i was wrong. >> the exit polls do suggest to us that a large number of people are vote republican this year, have always voted in previous elections. may not have always voted republican but they voted before. and look, it's not just warren, if i was picking out one county that i would be watching and worrying about if i were donald trump in the state, it would be delaware county, the big suburban strong hold right north of columbus. that's the one i would be worried about because it's professionals, college educated white professionals with a lot of soft republicans among them. >> we're talking, karl, about trump and trump counties. what about clinton? how is she doing in cuyahoga as compared to how barack obama did in 2012? >> i want to defer to chris on this. but i get the sense of looking at kei yoga and franklin that
there's something missing out of the coalition. and my gut tells me if we look at the precinct level data it's going to be african-american turnout. >> there is some turnout -- the early going shows some turnout weakness in those places. but the big question here is, the two counties on either side of the county that i grew up in, one in pennsylvania, one in ohio, this is coal country, this is steel country, post industrial, places that used to have a lot of democrats. that's where donald trump can make it all up. if there is a deficiency in franklin county among the republicans. if there is a deficiency in suburban philadelphia, that's where he's got to score. >> how much of this is attributing to the fact that we're talking about 90% of republicans who backed donald trump today. just after the access hollywood bus incident it was down to 83%. over the past three weeks, four weeks he's managed to get those republicans back into the fold
and so it comes down to the independents. she's got 90% of the dems, he's got 90% of the republicans. it comes down to the critical independent voters. >> and what definitely happened is republicans came home. >> like pence said. >> exactly. come home and they heard it. the interesting thing is that i came into the night thinking -- expecting clinton to have a lead in florida, hold it and win it. i also thought that trump would take a lead in ohio, hold it and win it. what could happen tonight, and i wouldn't bet against this, is it flips. it's the opposite of what i thought, i was wrong. >> a flip from trippi. >> we started the evening talking about whether we were going to see a realignment where the rust belt was starting to move republican. >> yeah. >> in some of these -- you know, florida, north carolina,
southern states. >> and georgia, we haven't called georgia yet. >> would start moving to the republican fold. and what's fascinating about the night, it may materialize the other way. it's all holding. >> dana, i want to talk about the balance of power quickly. that is this confidence that the gop might hold on to the u.s. senate. just moments ago u.s. senator demeanor from west virginia joe manchin said he's not committed to saying a democrat if it's a 50/50 senate. >> well well, isn't that interesting. he's tired of being in the minority. the unsung heroes of the election for the republicans has been the national republican senatorial committee. they have done some excellent work. theyed a support for their incumbents early on, they were able to deal with the primary challengers effectively, they spent money in those states to shore them. rob portman looking like he has
run the best campaign. ron johnson up in wisconsin, not sure if that's going to be able to work out for him. but i do think that the republicans, because rubio was able to come back, he ate a little humble pie, presidential doesn't work out, he ran a great race and now he'll be the florida senator again. i do think that the other thing that the nrsc did that the democrats did not do as well is they focused on -- krl, i think you'll agree with this. they focused on early vote in the states where they had a big opportunity to do so. florida being one of those. perhaps in north carolina as well. >> we haven't called that race yet. >> if we wind up, karl, tonight, with a president donald trump and a senate that remains in the control of the republicans, which nobody thought that was going to happen -- >> these people thought so. >> what does that mean for the
republican party which was so averse to trump and trumpism if you will. >> it will make it easier for him. dana and i were in an administration that had a demeanor senator. getting your policies through was a little more difficult. >> and the end which was all about investigations, completely. >> it will make his life easy per. but i tissue we'll see an interesting thing, the energy behind legislative initiative wills be coming from the house and senate more than it comes from the administration. donald trump wants to repeal and replace obamacare but he's hard pressed to describe what the detail of that means. there are people on the hill ready to write that legislation for him. >> we have a long night to go. >> a terribly long night. i want to second what dana said, though. senator roger wicker is a pal of mine from college days, did a terrific job. he's got a marine named ward
baker. this guy played his hand brilliantly. they took whatever money they had and shoved it on the field in august and september to keep their guys in the game. >> we are able to make an important call tonight, the fox news decision desk is projecting that hillary clinton has won the state of new mexico over donald trump. >> it's five electoral votes. but donald trump, we can project, wins the state of louisiana and its eight electoral votes. so our tally goes to 147 for trump and 109 for clinton. >> there was a little play in new mexico. >> he was there. >> so far we haven't called a single swing state. >> if you want to count new mexico. >> if you want to call that. >> but it wasn't really in play. >> he visited there but you're right. we're approaching 10:00 on the east coast and the chande is
coming down and polls are about to close in utah, montana and two battleground states of iowa and nevada. these are key. iowa was looking good for donald trump heading in and we'll see what nevada looks like >> maybe we'll go back and harass the decision desk and what's taking so long in these states. i know it's not taking long, stirewalt. we want answers. >> i sense a walk coming. >> it's like when my husband wants to go out to dinner and i'm taking too long and he visits the bathroom, you got your makeup on yet, got your hair done jet in sometimes if you visit you can speed along the process. >> doesn't work for me. >> we're going to bring you the results and projections as they come in from fox news broadcasting in the crossroads of the world, times square. don't go away.
cartels, militias, terrorist groups. they all need a place to park their cash and cherna is their dirty little piggy bank. we're going to insert into the country while nobody is looking. we're going to steal their money, sir? no, we are going to destroy it. we're going to finish this mission. anything we find is ours. do you want to trust a bunch of black water marks? i mean the rush, i've never felt anything like it. if we stay here we're going to die. then we die.
battleground states to close soon. we're waiting on big states, key swing states and we're waiting on some key senate races. we're waiting. >> you can feel the anticipat n anticipation. look at these folks who are just dying for information. >> there we are. >> aren't you dying for information and results at trump headquarte headquarters. and also at hillary's headquarters where i'm sure we're on. a night that has a lot more promise for donald trump that many ever thought he might have. want to go over to bill hammer who is on the data deck. that's what we're after. >> if rove and stirewalt have a thought, chime in. i want to show you what's happening in ohio. you see up here in the north eastern part of the state, all right, this is -- it's about as blue as you get in a regular
election year. it's blue collar, it's steel, it's coal, loss of manufacturing jobs, it's about trump's message. now this is trumble county, okay? at the moment -- now listen, it's 70,000 votes, probably another 30,000 to come in. he has an edge here by more than two points. show you what barack obama did in 2012, same county. obama was at 61%. 2008, 61%. 2004, john kerry, almost 62%. this is a big part of his message that he campaigned on. another idea here in the center part of the state, karl, you mentioned delaware county. this is suburban, white, affluent, highly educated. right now in 2004 bush was doing 66% of the vote. four years ago mitt romney 62%. pretty good. what is trump doing in that county right now? he's off about ten points. more votes to come in but about ten percentage points.
down here in columbus, ohio, franklin, hillary clinton is running up the numbers on him, 64% of the vote. to be expected. talk about millennial voters, this is athens county, ohio, ohio university. right now they're at 56% for clinton. look what it was for barack obama four years ago, 68%. you go back 2008 it was 68%. right now she's underperforming among these kind of voters which is telling us an interesting story. in southwest, ham town cilton , warren. what did romney do? he was up about five points from where trump is now. you're starting to see as the vote comes in a bit of a shift perhaps in the state. but you know, i look at this up and down the ohio river, i mean that is all red. this is kind of like primary
numbers that trump was doing when he was going head to head with john kasich, the governor there. i know stirewalt was talking about belmont county. trump has two-thirds of the vote there right now. yeah, okay, it's a 20,000 vote total. but you start to pick up on the rural areas and see where his message sticks and where it doesn't. ohio tells us an interesting store of of where the election is right now. about 3.1 million total votes tallied so far. the total four years ago was 5 million plus. you've got more votes to come in. but base on what we're seeing right now, ohio looks like a decent state for donald trump at the moment. >> let's bring back our panel, karl rowe, chris stirewalt and we've got chris wallace and brett hume still here. right now dow futures are down 464 points as of right now.
they don't like uncertainty. >> no, they don't. >> and in is uncertain. >> and it's also a shock. this is a rebuke to our business, the prognosticators among us who got it wrong. we don't know the outcome but this is not what he expected at all. we imagined from day one this was all the about trump. but there's another side to it. and if you're ambivalent about trump the man, you have to weigh that against a couple unpopular wars, a bank bailout, a lot of things that hillary clinton and the people around her are identified with that you deeply resent. so you say i don't know what trump is going to do but i kind of know what they did and you go with him. and i think we -- a lot of it, including me, kind of missed that calculation. >> what about that, joe. if these states wind up going trump, these swing states that we're still waiting on, a significant number of them, you
tell me whether the polling industry is effectively done. i mean whether they're over. because they did not predict that at all. >> i don't know. the polling industry has taken a whack in two or three cycles now and i don't think it's going to do anything better after this one. >> what are you talking about? are you taking gas? the mid terms weren't great. pollsters in 2014 didn't have a great turnout. >> that's what i meant. >> if there's a trump victory tonight, the pollsters are dead wrong. their predictions weren't worth the paper they were printed on. >> so far nothing has happened that wasn't predicted. >> we understand that. but we're talking about the reality right now which is this race is a lot tighter than many thought it would be. >> this is a national plus three for clinton. it doesn't seem that it matches that poll. >> sure. look. the polls had -- i mean -- the
polls had florida being a pretty much dead heat. >> right. >> the polls had ohio being -- >> a trump lead. >> a trump lead but being pretty much a dead heat. >> what about pennsylvania? what about michigan. >> had it tighter in michigan but with her with the lead. >> we don't know what's going to happen in michigan. >> could this turn out to be a three-point clinton victory? sure. that's all within a range. when a race gets this close there are no magic beans. we do not have a magic way to tell you how it turns out because in the end people are going to vote >> there's in one i know who thought this three hours ago. is everyone gets texts from people saying holy smokes. everyone is. >> we're not calling some of them, in pennsylvania and michigan and so forth, our standard is five or six points. >> we like a healthier cut of bacon. >> and look, it was 2 1/2 points in 2004 and i can bet you a dime
to a dollar the networks were calling pennsylvania quicker for kerry than we're willing to call it for anybody. >> given that, let's say she manages to pull out a victory in pennsylvania. let's give flod to trump for purposes of this discussion, maybe give ohio to trump. could go the other way but right now he's doing fine in ohio. give him ohio, give him florida and north carolina and let's give her pennsylvania. of the states that are still out there right now, what would be the most likely route to victory for him? >> he's got to take one of the big blue states, he's got to take michigan or wisconsin or minnesota or two of those states. >> or pennsylvania. >> she said pennsylvania -- look. think about what he needs to get to. she's at 242 if she's got pennsylvania and loses ohio, florida and north carolina. she adds 13 if she takes west virginia -- excuse me virginia. if she takes virginia that puts her at 255, colorado she's at
264. takes new mexico she's at 269. all she needs to do is take the second district of nebraska or any other state. >> she took new mexico. >> new hampshire is where i want to -- that's the state i'm really interested in. because in the end if she wins new hampshire, i know this sounds crazy but it's the facts. if you start looking at give him north carolina, give him florida, give him ohio. if she holds the blue wall up there in the midwest and picks up new hampshire -- >> we have this thing called nevada out there as well. >> bill hammer will get fired up really quickly and we'll do the whole little dance around and you'll see. go ahead, chris. >> is it possible that she could win the popular vote and he could win the electoral vote? >> sure. happened four times in our history. could happen again. >> you know it well? >> hard to do, takes a special expertise to arrive at that but it can be done.
>> tough to get there. >> you really got to thread the needle. >> if you want to do it you can do it but it's really hard to do. >> we're going to get our stuff together. we're going to see what we can call, see where we are on senate races and states we have yet to call and we want to check in with what's happening on social media. shannon bream has been following that. >> ivanka said watching the votes come in at trump headquarters. we were there to give us an exclusive look at the war room. that wall they're looking at is a bank of screens. prominently fox news was there, all of the other networks as well. you can manage the tension in that room right now. let's go to florida where you're all watching. get this, they are psyched that the medical marijuana amendment
passed. tons of posts on facebook about how the measure formally legalizes medical marijuana. now to viewer photos, call lynn posting on instagram, florida panhandle voters with what's better than a man in uniform? a man in uniform who exercises his right to vote. rocky watching tv, win in florida, hillsborough county not helping. jake tweeting working hard to get mr. trump the state of florida. keep the photos and tweets coming in. use the hashtag fox news 2016. west virginia governor goes to the democrat, jim justice and indiana governor goes to the republican who is follow up in governor mike pence's spot, jim
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i am totally blind. i lost my sight in afghanistan. if you're totally blind, you may also be struggling with non-24. calling 844-844-2424. or visit my24info.com. the fox news decision desk can make a call now. in the state of virginia we can call virginia for hillary clinton now. we couldn't for some time but tonight we can say that the commonwealth i should say of virginia will go to hillary clinton. again that northern virginia area where there are a lot of
democratic votes coming in late here and now hillary clinton gets the state of virginia, the commonwealth and now she has 122 electoral votes to donald trump's 147. >> that's got to come as a huge relief, brett hume. >> i would think so. although i mean when you look at where he traveled at the end and the states he was trying to put in play, there wasn't a big effort in virginia. virginia had thought to be gone. >> after comey he went back down there. >> but i don't think any of our decision desk people would count this as a surprise. >> tim cain, it's his home state. >> reasonably popular there. >> embarrassing to new york is the home state for hillary clinton and donald trump at least right now and one of them had to win it. >> virginia's former governors tend to be popular and a lot of
people think it's because they only serve one term but constitutionally they can only serve one term. virginians love their governors. >> it was just another route perhaps for trump to get the necessary extra votes. if he gets the romney states that he needs to get, that gets him to 253. he needs to add 17 electoral votes to that and virginia would be good for that. new mexico and virginia have both been called for hillary clinton. those are not big surprises. we're still waiting on the biggest questions of the night at 9:59 eastern time and we're awaiting on a couple more states to call. we expect to have a couple more race calls for you. >> this next batch of polls include iowa which is a state that had been trending towards donald trump, also nevada, a huge swing state and utah that became a big state with independent candidate evan
mcmullen factoring in there. >> nevada has been hard fought. it has been in contention for some time with both candidates paying a lot of attention and a real question about whether trump can woo enough voters in that state to make a difference. let's check it out. it is 10:00 p.m. on the east coast and polls have now closed in four more states including several of the most important battlegrounds in the nation. but first let's start with montana where fox news can project that donald trump will win that state's three electoral votes. trump is also ahead in utah, we just mentioned, although it's too early to project whether he will beat not just hillary clinton but also as we mentioned independent candidate evan mcmullen, a conservative mormon. the last time a presidential candidate who was not from a major party won an electoral
vote was in 1968 when george wallace carried five states. >> but the real battleground at this hour are in iowa and nevada, each of which represent six lelectoral votes. donald trump enjoyed small leads in the preelection polls, it's still too early to project whether that will translate into trump victories tonight in these two states. iowa and nevada too close to call. >> he traveled to both of them a number of times and it's going to be interesting to see how the latino population in nevada plays out in a state that seemed to be trending towards hillary clinton. chris wallace, your thoughts on that. >> this is interesting. if trump doesn't win pennsylvania -- let's say he wins all of the romney states including north carolina, plus he wins ohio and florida, that gets him to 253. he's 17 shy of the 270. now if he wins pennsylvania that
puts him over the top right there because there's 18 electoral votes. but if he didn't and then there's the question, how could you cobble together some states. n, six electoral votes, iowa, six electoral votes. that gets him into 260s. so you can begin to see you get one vote in the second district in maine. you could begin -- there's a small way of going rather than flipping one big blue state. so those are important. those could be the difference between him being elected or not elected. >> and you know, iowa, as we pointed out, trump has been expected to pull out a victory there. still too close to call. but he's still defending some turf, including georgia as well tonight >> we haven't called that and of course we haven't called north carolina. that is a state that could be a flip the other way which would put a dent in his hopes. we'll obviously await that. bret you got state races. >> fox news can project,
republican senator mike lee of utah will easily win a second term defeating democrat challenger misty snow. the first openly transgender person to be a nominee for senate. fox news projects that chuck grassley will win a seventh term by beating democrat patty judge. and it's interesting that the race at the begin og f the cycle was seen by democrats as one they thought they could pick off along with john mccain which seemed like it didn't materialize. >> but the most important senate race of the hour is in nevada where republican jo heck is competing with republican cortez masto to replace harry reid. the republicans once saw this race as their best opportunity for a senate pickup. keep in mind that the map for them this year looks bad. they have to defend way for seats than the democrats do. they liked this seat in nevada
for a gop pickup. but the polls have tightened and now this race could go either way. we can't call it right now. >> just remember the net gain democrats need plus five net gain to take over control. that's four plus the white house. and then on the house side they need plus 30, which it does not look like they will get. joining us now from donald trump's headquarters tonight, trump campaign manager kelly anne k anne conway what's your take right now. >> we're feeling point i can't about what's left to calculate. and a lot of our internal polls reflect what you're seeing tonight. that's why we put mr. trump in the states trying to flip a blue state to red, trying to protect florida, iowa, north carolina. that's been the strategy for the last several months and we're happy that the transition that we've seen from the exit polls earlier on for when those start
to fade into rue view aview and returns come in, you start to see a difference. we're happy that the crowds that came out actually meant something. if you stand in line for four or five hours to go to a trump rally, you're going the stand in line one or two hours to vote for him. >> the white working class has been a long forgotten voting group in many ways and mr. trump ener sized them from the beginning. tonight they're coming out in droves for him. speak to the effect that their vote is having tonight and what that's like for donald trump who has been speaking for them from the beginning. >> you just encapsulated the core of the trump candidacy. when i travel around with him and frankly when i look at data, i see the same thing, which is that he's been able to energize the forgotten men and the
forgotten woman and take my party away from being the party of the elite es and becoming more of the party of the working man and working woman. they just want a voice. i was raised in a very blue collar household and noncollege educated area. and i see in these people wherever we go the same type of just essential goodness like the people i grew up with but also people who fell frustrated. they do think the system is rigged against them. all they want is a fair opportunity and a break. and i have to say, donald trump, megyn, elevating issues that were in the bottom of the issues basement like trade and immigration and even patriotism never really reflected in the survey polling is pretty remarkable. the first day he did this all the way up to last night, manchest manchester. crowds are happy to be there.
they're energized. and they rarely say to him, can i have your autograph. they often say can you bring jobs back to our state. we know we're going to win tonight but come what may he built a movement and people feel like they're truly part of it. >> kelly anne, you still have to win part of the blue wall that they talk about. what is the state that the trump campaign is going to pick off that you think your best positioned at this moment to take? you've just lost virginia, we just called virginia. and there are questions about where you are in michigan and minnesota and other places. >> so it could be either of those, colorado, nevada, pennsylvania is out there, michigan, new hampshire. the point is when i'm watching your coverage tonight, when you look at the eight or nine states that fox news and others are calling quote too close to call, all but one are states that president obama carried stwies. these should be in hillary
clinton's column. she should comfortably have these states already and here we are at 10:00 p.m. saying they're too close to call. don't just wait around for her to go to 248 protected blue wall and find those 22 electoral votes. let's dip into her 248. but right now i can see it being one or two of the colorado, pennsylvania, nevada, new hampshire, they do belong in the democratic column. we've been trying to sneak a grab on one or two of them. >> great to see you tonight. thank you for being here. >> thank you. i want to get back to karl rove, chris stirewalt, juan williams, steve hayes all with us. steve, let me start with you. >> absolutely fascinating. you remember back in 2012 there was the one candidate quality that jumped off of the page and it was that people felt that barack obama cared for people like them more than mitt romney did and the gap was like 82 to 13. well there's a similar result
tonight and i think we've taungd about it a little early. nearly 4 in 10 americans said the most important candidate quality can bring needed change. they voted for trump 82 to 13. i think when we look at the results tonight, we look at what we're seeing, what seems to be a trend. and as tucker was saying earlier, maybe a miss by some pollsters, that's the number that's going to jump out. that's the number that could tell us maybe more about anything than any other number that we see tonight. >> and juan, what do you think? there are now a number of different sites that have shifted their percentages. obviously we determine or percentages on the decision desk. we're getting told that the north carolina senate can be called, incumbent republican richard burr will win the race against debra ross.
this was nip and tuck in a state that was not sure how it was going to go. we haven't called the governor's race here. this is the sitting incumbent republican senator, the chair of the senate intelligence committee. he was in a tough race down there. it was believed at one point he was trailing and then they threw a lot of money in this race and debra ross, a lawyer for the aclu was not a perfect fit for this candidate, this nominee at the beginning. but democrats suddenly thought they had a real chance to pick this off. the fact that republicans have won the senate seat in north carolina now seems that it is more likely that they'll hold on to the u.s. majority, the majority in the u.s. senate. which would mean that mitch mcconnell would stay the majority leader and that's a big deal. >> i already lost money tonight to dane that perino. i don't know why you picked on me. when you look now to missouri,
to what's going on there with roy blunt, you know, that just becomes so critical. joe heck, again, the republican in nevada trying to take on the seat from harry reid. again, another critical step. but as i said, todd young managed to beat evan bayh in indiana and we know that the ryan johnson seat is still sitting there and pat toomy in pennsylvania. i think, though, the odds i thought going in was a little bit of a democratic lean in terms of senate majority night. now i think with this seat there it's back to coin flip totally. >> i want to talk about new hampshire which is still one of the many states too close to call at this hour and what we're getting from the reporter on the ground is that the party gop is feeling cautiously optimistic saying there are a number of republican strong holds that have yet to come in, counties, salem, dairy and feeling pretty good about the top of the ticket
and the results outstanding in new hampshire which you know was joe trippi's favorite state. he's not here to discuss it now. >> in spirit. >> that would be significant for donald trump. he's very much in play there. >> this was one of trump's best states. polls predicted a trump to win here or close. i would expect him to do well. it fits his blueprint well. you have a lot of blue collar voters. apparently tom brady likes him. that should be good with the pats fans. that's in keeping with what we expect to see. if new hampshire comes in frr trump that would be an expected outcome. virginia come in for clinton, that's an expected outcome. georgia would be expected for trump. now we're getting down to the state that keeps not filling in, the 2000 states on the east coast, north carolina and pennsylvania are going to tell us so much. we're getting close.
>> the burr win in a tight race that was probably tied or one point. >> well, so over history candidates generally outperform -- senate candidates generally outperform presidential candidates. average is 8 points. you can read something into it that the republicans have something to be happy there but in terms of what it means in the race, we probably tap the brakes for a second. >> if she wins north carolina it is a major blow to his chance to get to 270. >> this is the bloodyist hardest ground of the race is found in north carolina and found in the corridor that runs from raleigh down to charlotte, the center part of the state and the fighting has been bitter and brutal there and it could decide this election. >> back to the senate, does this actually mean that the republicans are likely to keep control? i mean there's several outstanding. we're stale waiting on pennsylvania. >> there's still four balls in the hopper. >> it's more likely now that it's 50/50 than it's not.
they their only plus one -- >> it's more likely that it's going to be 50/50 because they held on to a seat. but the question is does it actually make it 51% for likely that they could retain control than not in. >> i don't think so. full disclosure, i'm involved in a super pack that spent $22 million in north carolina. and if you thought that was a big sum, we spent $32 million in new hampshire. each one of these -- we should have cut a deal with every decisive voter. >> bitter party of one. >> yes. but look, these are -- each one of these races doesn't signify -- the victory in north carolina doesn't signify a victory in missouri or new hampshire or pennsylvania. these are all individual races ind sin cattic driven by -- >> do the math. give him all three of those, that's plus four, they hold nevada. that's still plus four and they
have to win the white house to win control. that's what i'm saying. >> i look at it a different way. easier way to do it, there are is seats that are going to decide control of the upper house and one is a democrat seat in nevada, the other ten are incumbent republicans. . republicans need to keep seven of those they've got arizona, florida, ohio, indiana, they've got to pick up two more out of new hampshire, pennsylvania, m-m a -- missouri an november. >> our colleagues run a website where they track the betting odds. updates every minute. at the moment, you're not going to believe this, at the moment it rates donald trump with a 75.1% chance of winning the election as opposed to a 24.6. >> we've got a lot of people with money on this. >> put down a bet. >> the stock futures have been plunging on the news that mr. trump is doing better.
we had a big rally and when it appeared in recent days that he was pulling ahead and pulling away. those are the odds now. john stos l can make a convincing and interesting case. >> i'd be careful as to how many betters were influencing. >> anybody who has lost money tonight might not want to put money on mr. trump. the odds are in his favor. >> she's got the leading hand in 18 states and the district of columbia that they've won in six elections. she's taken virginia, taken new mexico giving her 260. all she's got to do is win two out of three states, either new hampshire, colorado, nevada, pick two of the three and he's at 270 plus. >> isn't that assuming that she holds on to minnesota and michigan. >> and it also assumes she loses ohio, north carolina and florida. >> in the 538 blog which had her
up 78%, it's down to 60%. >> i live the scientific precision. those guys have done pretty well in the past. >> 538 did terribly in the gop primary. they blew the republican primary badly. >> can you see bret hume work the -- >> i think the betting odds thing is hilarious. >> if you're a democrat and you're in northwest d.c. you're horrified right now because you consider -- thank you, a democrat confirming. you consider trump not just a buffoon but evil, a monster. he's a moron and stupid in your view and you're behind the single best financed campaign in the history of democracy going back to the roman republican. no one has had more money. how did this happen. maybe the lesson is not even connected to either candidate
but populist economics may be in. had the democrats gotten a nominee that they identified on, a lot of democrats, probably the majority of democrats think the big banks are part of the problem in the country right now. if they had a candidate -- if you had a candidate who aligned with you i'd logically, maybe she would be doing better. >> what about obamacare, we haven't discussed that tonight and it's implosion. and the premium hikes going up 50% in many places. and trump trying to run on a promise of repeal and replace, although without specifics as you point out. but that law is having a real impact on people's lives chls i think there is an ideological component but not the one you identify. the trade numbers are evenly split. but if you look at other numbers, talk about what kind of change people want, that's a question that was asked in the
exit polls within continue barack obama's policies with 28%, change to more conservative policies, 46%, change to more liberal policies 28%. i think the voters who are supporting donald trump are saying enough. president obama came into office in 2008 and announced he was going to be an activist liberal president. he won in 2012 despite being an activist liberal president. and what we're seeing now with the up popularity of obamacare, the failure of obama economic policies, i would argue, $1 trillion in stimulus still had the slowest recovery since 1949 and skepticism about the iran deal, i think you have people saying enough. enough. >> but the flip side of that is, you were talking earlier about the fact that they asked about canada qualities. one is need for change. and there are questions about has the right experience and the
right temperament and she kills him in that. one could argue that i'd logically he's got the right message and the problem if he loses is he wasn't the right messenger. >> i think that's exactly right. >> and i think the other side of this is, you say oh, gosh, if he wasn't donald trump, if he didn't have the baggage that's attached to him in terms of women, in terms of racial minorities, in terms of the temperament, leadership issue that chris is talking about, gosh, how much would we be talking about a republican route tonight. >> and i think we have to remember the first rule of politics, every election is a character election. etiology takes a back seat to the character of the individual and they're all trust questions. in this case the democrats chose to nominate a person who was overwhelmingly untrusted in the american electorate. >> but both candidates were overwhelmingly untrustworthy. >> yeah.
>> virtually two out of thee or three out of four americans think the country is on the wrong track but what is it, 40% said it was the most important quality? these things change. and the untrustworthiness of the candidates and the questions about each other's character raised the percentage that we're concerned about, character and temperament. concerns about change affected similarly the number that wanted a change agent as their number one priority. what's interesting to me is change became less important over the course of the campaign. >> just one other point on trump and the temperament issue. which has dogged him. the flip side of that, even though they think he's got a bad temperament. the flip side is how did he get all of the support from the white working class. yes it was in part policy and trade. but that messaging that he sent, the willingness to offend, to not raise his hand when we asked him are you going to support the republican party, to take on
major media figures and pretty much all of the media, that was appealing to large sections of the electorate not because they hate all members of the media, not because they hate the republican party, they hate the inability to get anything done open they wanted somebody who didn't play by the rules who was willing to go in there and bust things up and be a different kind of candidate. >> i totally agree. you look at the way people see washington, see what's happened in washington over the past 40 years, that's what they say, we don't like his temperament, however we've elected people with good temperaments before and they haven't got the change done. >> we have a long night ahead. we're going to talk about a lot of things. we've got to hit a quick break. joe manchin, he might not stay as a democrat, which would be a more likely scenario for a republican senate. but we shall see. >> betting odds are up to 080%
for trump. >> we're going to get to our wallets and come over here and got some odds from brit as we come up on a break. >> just a few states are left undecided, ohio, florida, north carolina, south carolina. >> five more states set to close at 11:00 including california. and dow futures plunging 600 points. got anything on that, b rirks rks -- brit? >> it's all about the money. they think he's got this. >> we'll be right back.
colorado going blue, according to the fox news decision desk. that's significant as both campaigns had worked hard for colorado voters but hillary clinton managing to pull out a win in that state as we continue to await so many of the other critical swing states. >> as you were talking, a critical swing state has been called by the fox news desk. ohio will be donald trump's category. a victory for donald trump in ohio can be called by the fox news decision desk at this point. that is 18 electoral votes. no republican has won the white house without winning the state of ohio. donald trump, the gop nominee has just won the state of ohio. now you have the electoral votes at 168 electoral votes for donald trump, 131 for hillary clinton. he still has some work to do as we mentioned about winning blue states in the blue wall. but he's on his way.
we have not called florida yet. >> need 270 to win. he's got to get another 102 states -- >> step right up, folks. >> what? what? >> this is the 538 blog that had clinton ahead all night. 55% chance trump wins the presidency. >> that's been changing all night. that updates by the money. >> ohio has picked the president the last 13 elections in a row. i mean everybody always talks about republicans can't win without it, they've picked the president 13 elections in a row. this is a big deal. >> these changes we're seeing with the betting markets, these are meaning pfl. people that have a lot on the line. and this is the first time this particular progress nos cater, the 538 blog extremely well regarded as thought that trump was going to win. >> we want to point out that brit hume is not getting paid by
the 538 blog. still employed by the fox news channel. let's begin with chief political correspondent karl cameron live at the trump head quarters. this has to be huge. >> reporter: big reaction here, the crowd whooping it up. they're watching fax news channel very carefully. winning ohio. keeps the trump plan in place. it's a strategy, win the romney states, piers the blue wall then they can do it. 95% of the vote is in in florida, very tight, just a couple of points. north carolina 83% of vote is in. michigan has only got 30% of the vote in and it is a long way for the michigan vote to get full and that means if trump can hold on to all of the romney states, which included ohio, if he can defend north carolina and pull off a victory in michigan, that could get him to 275 electoral college votes if he holds all of the romney red states.
lots of reason for real enthusiasm and renewed optimism here at the trump headquarters. >> do they see optimism in michigan? minnesota? where is the blue state? >> reporter: well, the state is where donald trump was last night at midnight for his final rally. there were a lot of questions about whether him going to minnesota and michigan was going to have a payoff. and now michigan would be able to put him over the top if he can -- with 70% of the vote still not counted, pull off a victory and steal a blue state there. that would make a difference assuming he holds the romney states. in michigan it was huge crowds. wherever trump went he got big crowds. he spent a treem yous amount of time in macomb county. that is the birthplace of reagan democrats, blue collar working class americans. and the trump campaign said all
along it was the spirit of his supporters and the momentum that came along with it that could propel a last-minute upset here. >> karl cameron at trump campaign headquarters. >> fox news decision desk is now projecting that the republicans will hold control of the u.s. house. this is not a huge surprise. we understood that that would happen. they currently enjoy a 59-seat advantage over the democrats in the house. the democrats would have had to net 30, net a gain of 30 seats. they have not managed to do it. they're projecting that they'll probably gain between 10 and 20 seats, falling short of majority control. the republicans have control of the lower chamber going forward. i want to check in with jennifer griffin at clinton headquarters. >> reporter: what's notable here at headquarters, it's been a
subdued crowd for most of the night. and what we noticed is they turned away from watching the news channels, they're not watching fox news over here, but there was a lag effect where only recently did this crowd learn that virginia had been called for clinton. there was a little applause at that moment. but right now we're hearing speeches from outside, governor andrew cuomo is speaking. they've gone to videos, including the fight song that has been her popular mantra going on to stage and a lot of hollywood stars coming out speaking. they pulled katie perry out to speak to the crowd. but it was subdued as they were watching the returns come in on the rival news channels. and again only just now did they learn that virginia has gone to hillary clinton. >> thank you. >> let's bring in our panel, mark mccallum, george will and guy benson.
maria, i'll start with you. the dow futures down 700 right now. give us a lowdown. what's happening? >> the market is selling off because obviously this was unexpected from wall street's perspective. the market wants to see certainty. so investors are going to be buying on a hillary win and selling on a donald win. and the bottom line is because they -- he's the unknown. you know, hillary clinton we know would build on many of president obama's policies. the fact that donald trump is talking about relationshiping up nafta, talking about repealing and replacing obamacare, these are all unknowns. that's one reason that the market is selling off. i would predict that this will be a huge buying opportunity. when you look at the economic plans, on trump side he wants to lower taxings and roll back regulations. regulation has been the one barrier for small business and large business in terms of growth. economic growth is the priority. that's what this country needs right now. that's what will be positive for the markets and i think ultimately people will see this
major selloff as a huge buying opportunity because of his policies. hillary clinton wants to raise taxes, she wants to raise wages nap's going to make it much more expensive for business. they will likely sit on cash, not increase hiring, not increase investing. pretty much the same of what we've been seeing fb eight years. >> he has not gotten to 270 and you're saying if he wins the presidency what the markets would do. >> the markets are indicated to be down sharply because the market is seeing the results that we're seeing tonight as the potential that trump may win. that's why the markets are selling out. >> george will, you not are a trump fan. i think it's safe to say. your reaction now as you see the results coming in tonight. are you surprised? >> i am. one of the most powerful predictors of presidential outcomes over the years have been the job approval of the president. that is when an incumbent
president is not running for reelection. if he job approval is over 50% it's a strong likelihood that the candidate of this party will win the presidency. mr. obama is in the mid 50s now which is a powerful pull that's not working on behalf of mrs. clinton. second, you mentioned a moment ago it's expected and was expected that the republicans would hold the house. what that means is if mrs. clinton becomes president, she'll be the first president since -- first democratic president since grover cleveland to take the presidency without controlling both houses of congress. on the other hand it is possible that if mr. trump becomes president, he'll have the house and the senate. the american people constantly complain about gridlock in washington and more often than not have the divided government. unified government has been
since the second world war the exception rather than the rule but it could be produced tonight. >> what message do you take from it? donald trump hasn't won yet but he's certainly doing better than a lot of people thought he might in many states. what message do you take from that as somebody who was a lifelong republican, you say the party has left you. what message are you receiving from these voters? >> if you look at the enormous number of votes who are voting for mrs. clinton and mr. trump, the country is not the center right country that the republicans have assumed all along, a country clambering for small government, clambering for the rule of law, a strong assertive often interventionist foreign policy. it's not the sort of center right country that the republicans have presupposed. >> martha, you've been looking at the exit polls all night. we talked earlier about the jendjend
gender gap closing. but is that feeling of kicking over the table and washington doesn't work. >> covering exit polls tonight has been a tricky business because it looked like they were leaning in one way and now we're seeing kind of a different picture. it makes you question what's in these numbers to some extent. however they do still indicate that it's tight, that it will be close. when you look at how these numbers break down. and when you look at ohio, there's some interesting things in this ohio win. one is the question of whether or not trade takes away jobs. 64% say that was important to them and they believe that trade takes away jobs. take a look at the union vote. they went for president obama 60% in the union vote. 37% of union voter rs went for mitt romney. this is the audience that trump has spoken to no ohio and michigan. it's the midwest rust belt he's trying to put together and it
indicates that it's working for him in the numbers in ohio. as slim as it is in terms of the black vote he's at 6%, mitt romney was at 3%. he's one of the few republican candidates who has tried with this group. he went out there and said, look, you've tried everything else, why not give me a try. and it seems to be moving the needle a little bit. and he condemned mitt romney over and over for choking and not going far enough and not being able to push the needle further with all of these groups. he's pushed the needle with some of these groups and expanded the area a little bit for republicans and it's quite interesting to see how it's playing out. >> the fact that we cautioned at the very beginning that these things can be wrong and that's why we do that. we've seen it before and we were even warned today that it seemed like in some states in particular democrats would
answer the polling and republicans wouldn't. so that's the caution we always start with. >> and we still don't know. when you look at the numbers -- we've got a ways to go. 102 electoral votes still to be tallied for donald trump. but these indicators are really interesting in terms of how the electorate may be moving and the midwest rust belt is clearly something to watch. >> as much as we see, you have to feel that the trump supporters out there who have been fervent supporters of him are feeling uplifted and excited and heard right now. >> oh yeah. >> there's obviously half of the country or some faction on the other half that's terrified of him. and that would be feeling downright frightened perhaps if he were to win tonight. that's a real sentiment in the country as well. >> i've spoken to a number of plugged in democrats over the course of the evening. at the beginning of the night they were confident. then a few hours later, kweezy.
okay but kweesy. i'm not going to say full-blown panic but borderline panic in the democratic world. if you're hillary clinton right now, man, you have to be look at yourself in the mirror saying, america is rendering a verdict regardless of whether or not she pulls this out, and now it's looking more likely for him than anyone ever thought to win the presidency, she is a surreally historically politically loathed clark ter. the fact that she is in dang of losing the presidency to someone whose disapproval rating is 60% and once again donald trump is defying expectations totally. again. when will we learn. >> from the moment he took the escalator ride down in trump tower and announced his presidency to the moment that he ran against 16 other people to the moment nobody thought he had a chance and then when he gets in this race and here we are.
>> yeah. >> and i think the reason is his. message resonates with the working man and woman out there. we have a recovery. but most american families are not feeling the recovery. we're seeing the economic numbers month after month that seem to be showing improvement and yet people's wages are the same as they have been 20 years ago. and yet people cannot find a job that they have the skill set for. so you have an economy that is growing about 1.5% to 2%. we had a good gdp number but you're still averaging slow economic growth. he resonated with that population and that's why he's doing as well as he is. >> just to follow up on a point we were getting to earlier, obama care. we haven't spent a lot of time discussing it but that is one of the issues in the way that gas prices affect your actual pocketbook and grocery store
prices affect your pocketbook. obamacare -- maybe implosion is too strong but certainly fire, brush fires in many states has begun if earnest. >> that's the number one issue in terms of the regulatory story that businesses and individuals are upset about. you're talking about these increases in 2017. that was not good timing for hillary clinton to see that we're going to see 116% increase in arizona, for example for obamacare. this is the one issue that keeps coming up when i'm speaking with managers of businesses and ceo, the reason they don't hire more workers, the reason they're not investing in their businesses. obamacare is the number one regulation that his supporters want to see repeal and replaced. >> we have one quick update. brit hume? >> this is the "the new york times" live presidential forecast. this is not the betting odds. this is what the "the new york times" which is no friend of donald trump says. chance of trump winning the
presidency, 91%. >> wow. >> where did they get that? >> you know, they're looking at -- they're projecting based on the data that we have. i don't know what goes into -- all of these projections that these guys do, some of them have been very good, some have failed. they go into a digital black box and out comes a projection. >> nobody hacked into your iphone, right? >> i showed it to you, bret. >> polls closing in five states at the top of the hour including california. >> plus we're still waiting to hear what is going to happen in pennsylvania, in florida and north carolina. one of the biggest prizes, ohio already gone to donald trump. stay tuned. i'd like to send 50 pizzas to france.
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fox news election alert for you. we're waiting on several critical states. we've already called ohio for donald trump as we brought to you moments ago. we -- and we are about to make a major call. fox news decision desk is projecting that donald trump has won the state of north carolina and that is huge for donald trump. this is exactly what he needed to do, win ohio. win north carolina. florida is part of it and then pick off a blue. that's what he's trying to do. that's what he's hoping to do. we're waiting on florida. we're waiting on several states including pennsylvania, michigan, minnesota. but right now if you're in the trump camp, with the exception of colorado and new mexico which have gone to hillary clinton, you've got to say this night is going directly according to plan. this is -- we're taking a look
at trump headquarters here at the hilton hotel here on 6th avenue, steps away from where the fox news channel is. you can feel the enthusiasiasen. and the mood other at hillary clinton headquarters has changed dramatically as they begin to realize their plan -- it could still come out the way they want, don't get me wrong but they would much rather have seen trump lose one of these critical states. i want to toss it up to bret. >> wow. i mean this is pretty amazing. bill hammer we're working the map. and now the north carolina win for donald trump, you look at the map, it's starting to line up. >> we filled these pieces in what -- >> a million times? remember 270 is what you need to win the presidency. >> let me go ahead and tick through this. watch trump and clinton's
numbers change. this by the way, it's not farfetched at all. it's quite rational if you look at the vote valleys right n-- tallies. he was up seven points in iowa. you see the numbers shifting here. you could -- he's going to probably win idaho, likely utah, let's give him arizona even though it's been contested. i would give her california, i would give her oregon and washington state. what happens in alaska? does he win there? likely. does she win maine? probably most of them. and so now we're at 258 to 209. i think for the sake of this argument, bret, give her nevada and give her pennsylvania. >> you're at 258, 235. >> i'd give her minnesota and
she's at 245 and then i would come back to him and i'd put my focus on michigan. and if that happens, he's the president of the united states at 274. >> aren't we now shifting -- aren't we talking now about what is her path to get to 270? we have spent weeks and weeks talking about what's his path to get to 270. we are now shifting to talk about what's her path to 270. >> so let's go ahead and take away arizona. and give that to hillary clinton. bump up to 256. let's say he doesn't win michigan. maybe she wins michigan. >> there she is. >> 272. >> we've talked repeatedly about his path being so difficult. a number of ways to get there and her path being a lot easier. it is still a lot easier. i would point to new hampshire because we were not quite sure which way that was going to go
as well. but she's got the easier run at it right now but at the moment he is pulling the inside straight that we've been debating now for months. >> if florida is very close, what are the chances that hillary clinton is the one that says this race is not over and we are sending lawyers down to florida and you and i are back looking at chads like we were in 2000. >> i'll tell you right now in florida, this is the breakdown. you know, trump has the lead of about 135,000 votes. that's the state of that race at the moment. >> dip in there real quick. >> i show you michigan. look at all of the red counties in michigan. looking at wisconsin too, showing you quickly, lock ok atl of the counties filling in for
trump. i would also make this case this. and perhaps this is the story of the night. trump came out saying they're ripping you off, they're taking your jobs, shipping them overseas and he talked about western new york and western pennsylvania and ohio up into wisconsin and michigan and also north carolina. north carolina has lost 250,000 textile jobs in the last 20 years. this was his message. and right now if you tick through the states and >> it's a completely different map. we're now, megyn, talking about what is her path to 270. >> big news here as well, bret and bill. want to make a projection in wisconsin. fox news is projecting senator ron johnson will beat back a
challenge from democrat russ feingold in a hard futh battle. this is one not certainly and that the decision desk had been waiting on. this will stay in republican control. this is one of the seats the democrats had been hoping to pick off in their, what they hoped would be march to control the upper chamber, which is so far not materialized tonight. i want to bring in dr. charles krauthammer along with carl rove and let me start with you on the ron johnson call, karl. >> huge. he'd been behind most of the campaign. something happened in the last 3 or 4 weeks. everybody piled into the race, spent millions of dollars here, but i think people spent it not thinking he's going to be able to win, but hoping he would, and he did. and it says something about him.
he was written out by all of the sort of powers that be in wisconsin. he's a decent guy, good member of the senate but not well known. he has crawled back into a second term in the senate. >> your reaction on the democrat on what we're seeing tonight on clinton's electoral plans and the democrats' plans which have not been materializing. >> not as optimistic as maybe coming into the night. and that ron johnson is a big blow. i will say, and i've been getting lots of texts from friends tonight asking me if i'm freaking out yet. i'm nervous. but i'm not freaking out yet. trump needed to win the big three. he needed to win ohio, north carolina, florida. e lost those, it would be game over. he's still in it. if current trajectory holds, he'll hold on to florida. wisconsin is still very much in
play for clinton. she's won virginia and colorado. nevada, people are feeling cautiously optimistic. new hampshire could be one of the make or break states at the end of the night. so there is reason to be nervous but there is always reason to be nervous. >> we're hearing more about nevada. some have been projecting it's done, over for trump, and now, they're saying maybe early vote outweighed by the voting day response from pro-trump voters based in part on what we're seeing in other states. >> that is the question. right? a lot of people got out of their skews in a lot of places. i don't have a question there is going to be a lot of deconstruction no matter who wins tonight but what actually happened. and whoever the next president is, trying to bring us back together. >> are you starting to feel that hillary clinton might lose this thing? >> i'm nervous but not in freak out mode yet.
i still think the path is a little bit easier for her than trump. he has to run the table in a lot more states but it's going to be a late night. >> charles? your thoughts on what we're seeing here? >> i think if the current trends continue, there is 100% certainty brit hume is going to cite the pentagon. if trump wins this is a revolution of the kind we haven't seen since reagan. what this means ideologically is that republican party has become the populist party and the country is going to be without a classically conservative party. what trump has done is win back the reagan democrats. they drifted away, he brings them back on issues he says the cause of their misery is
immigration and trade, which you don't see getting a lot of support. i think the reason he got him back is he simply said, i'm your voice. i hear what you're saying. what this is, this is part of the brexit revolution, of the countries in the west understanding that globalization and advances we get from the information economy brought tremendous benefits but no one has addressed for the needs of those who are the net losers. net globalization trade is always a positive, but net means there are winners or losers. trump is a guy who understood that. he's spoken to those who lost out. he said i speak for you. i don't know whether his remedies are going to work, but certainly what we're seeing is ideological shift, speaking for the white working class, and also, the nonwhite working class, and it's going to be an
electoral shift because that means it is in play permanently for the republicans. on the other hand with the rise of hispanic registration, hispanic voting, the classically safe seven states for republicans are no longer that classically safe. >> so have several states that should be safe for republicans right now that are also too close to call. i want to get to our panel, including monica and david in just a moment. first we've got another round of poll closings coming up in just moments. it's three and a half minutes from the top of the hour. north carolina, ohio, in for trump. pennsylvania, florida, still up in the air. our special election coverage live from fox news world headquarters in new york city continues in just a moment. don't go away. what powers the digital world? communication.
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welcome back, everybody. just about a minute out from being able to make calls in five states with 82 electoral votes up for grabs. california, with 55. this hasn't been in contention. they nef moved out of the presumed democratic column. we have a big call to make now. >> donald trump will win the state of florida, according to the fox news decision desk, he will win the 29 electoral votes in florida. a very tight race, but he is pulling that off. you can see the crowds outside here cheering, 49% to 47% right now, but we can project that he is going to win florida. that means he has won florida, north carolina, and ohio.
this is the triple states that he needed to win to make the path possible. as you just saw, megyn, upstairs it is very possible as of this moment. >> if you need insight straight, he's well on his way, though it is not yet over. polls just closed in five more states. most states will go to hillary clinton. fox news can project clinton will win california, the largest single batch in the country. our fox decision desk projects mrs. clinton will win washington and hawaii, which collectively represent another 60 electoral votes. >> donald trump will win idaho's votes, that means oregon which votes by mail entirely. we'll have to wait longer to determine who will win that state's seven electoral votes.
we can probably project it heads towards hillary clinton. >> fox news can project mike creppo of idaho will win a fourth term, and fox news decision desk can project a trio of democratic senators will win reelection in the following states. washington, where patty murray prevailed, oregon, where ron whieden will beat his challenger and hawaii. >> in california, fox news can project kamala harris will replace barbara boxer from the golden state. harris will defeat loretta sanchez by which the top two finishers go on to win the
general election. and the republican challenger in the senate race makes it tougher for house races out there trying to gin up support for this of those republican house races. >> going to go our panel now. brit hume, and monica crowley. your thoughts? he -- we're not going to go there. >> no. no. i want to get monica crowley. i promised to go to her before the last break. someone has been a donald trump supporter, believer, i guess is a good way to put it from the beginning. what does it feel like for you now? >> i have to tell you, three weeks after donald trump announced for president in july of last year, i came on fox news and said stop laughing. do not underestimate him, he can win the whole thing. at the start of our coverage tonight, i told you tonight has the potential to be a realigning kind of election. there are many cross currents at play that the predictive models
we have used in the past and pollsters have been using in the weeks leading up to the election may not hold true and steady. i think that is what we're seeing tonight for a very long time, 70% plus, of the american people told us they're unhappy with the direction of the country, that this will, in fact be a change election. what we have seen from exit polling coming out tonight, what we're hearing from voter as cross the country is that they wanted a strong leader, someone going to be a change agent, reverse a lot of what president obama has done over eight years. that is, i think, the primary reason you're seeing donald trump do so well, he's a movement candidate. he's said he's leading a movement. what you're seeing now, happening across the country in previously blue states is that movement taking hold. >> mo we're just getting word from our producer from hillary clinton campaign headquarters, speaking to several hillary clinton campaign aides they tell
me they're, quote, expecting a long night, adding nothing has come easy for her, she's had to fight for everything her entire life, closed quote. >> i think this election has proven that. and i think that is true. i think it's going to be a long night. there are a lot of states out and a lot of them are looking really close. something monica said, though, look. i'm a democrat. i'm a clinton guy. i've worked for hillary clinton and tim kaine. it wasn't that long ago i was saying stop laughing. and the paradigm of left versus right is blown up. i don't think that the question the american people are having anymore. it's more up verses down. people versus establishment paradigm. no matter who wins tonight, we're all going to have to
address. >> does this match, as donald trump said in final days, the brexit vote? people said this is going to be the brexit. you know? that great britain just voted for to exit the european union. is that what we're seeing tonight? >> i'm reluctant to have too many comparisons to brexit. i think what we're talking about is not just a u.s. phenomenon. this is a global phenomenon right now. the old paradigm is blown up and we're talking about a global movement. there is a reason why bernie sanders supporters and donald trump supporters hated washington equally. if donald trump wins tonight, the republican party is going to have a major internal fight to try to figure that out. >> one of the other questions rb if she doesn't manage to win tonight, how soon do democrats
call for the head of jim comey? and i mean, you already -- >> i think they're waiting. >> you know that they'll try to attribute this to jim comey as opposed to her flaws, to her decisions with respect to her own e-mail, which we saw in a wikileaks releases her own team thought were terribly advised and you have an fbi director praised as a straight shooter, someone we can trust. your thoughts, katie? >> look. as mo said, we don't have to wait for that. the reason why hillary clinton is addressed by jim comey is because she made a decision to set up a private, unsecured e-mail server and put your convenience under the priority of the national security of the country. based on the exit polling we're seeing people across the board found her e-mail situation troubling, including democrats. her own staffers were concerned
about the fact she'd used a private server while at the state department. and i think going back to the point of things changing in the country to respond to what the clinton campaign is saying, if hillary clinton loses tonight, it's not going to be because she's a woman, first of all. second, it's going to be because she's a corrupt representation of the past. you see this election with donald trump as the candidate, natural progression of the 2010 historic turn over of the house and of the senate as well. those are both similar elections we didn't have the candidate with mitt romney and donald trump came along. i think it's a natural extension of that kind of attitude towards the washington establishment. >> you point out that donald trump is now 64 electoral votes away from becoming the next president of the united states. >> 54? >> i said 64.
i meant 54. they told me there would be no math. i was an english and poly-sci major. this is a combination of things. >> it's funny. i wasn't covering politics in 2000. i regretted that i didn't get this. this could be our 2000. this could be one of the elections that takes on a life of its own on election night. it's just an inflexion moment in the history of the country. we don't know. look. hillary clinton could still win this election. i mean this is not over by any stretch of the imagination but to get back to katie's point, i don't think that comey's last private e-mails is separate from the brexit thing. it's part of the ins, versus the outs. i think it shows, which we didn't detect but have a
sampling of it, people are just, millions are people are fed up with politics and politicians as usual and they just, if they have not been sure about donald trump they figure it isn't working. let's just throw them out and put them in. if he doesn't work, we'll fire them in four years. >> we have a call to make. the projection on a state of utah projecting donald trump will win the state of utah which has been contested. that was in question. it's almost always gone republican. this year there was a question about it. utah has gone for trump. >> six electoral votes puts up to -- >> 48. >> i got you. >> that is all still part of the base plan of getting romney states, plus, ohio, florida and
adding 17 somehow. >> just pick up on chris's excellent point. the outsider saw this political reality. it was donald trump. ted cruz had the same insight but fell by the wayside because he was too much of an insider in part. donald trump had the insight and he understood there was a tremendous force in the electorate, the sentiment. he got himself nominated and may well have gotten himself elected. when he got down to the end and things began to turn his way, all of the stuff he'd been doing all along stopped. it was no picking fights with people smaller than himself. none of that. he campaigned in the most disciplined fashion. >> the campaign took his twitter feed away. his disciplined campaigning at the end, he summoned self discipline to do that, i think is something that goes a long way to explaining how he was
able to get this to the position, to the posture in it's right now. >> if this continues, going in this way, i'll ask you this, tucker. do you think people are suggesting barack obama will have effectively presided over the collapse of the democratic party? we've seen, they collapse, they're dead and will never come back. right? if she doesn't win this tonight, and they don't, the democrats don't win control of the senate and almost everybody projected they'd do, it's -- it's a colossal failure. >> it's a precariouscoalition. the rich and poor don't have a rich set of shared interests. i think the bernie phenomenon opened that there. i think the truth is, of course, the voters are mad at washington but i don't think they can match contempt that washington has for them. what is the message?
every time you turn on the television it's not just trump is a bufoon, but his supporters are worse. i live in that world. you have a huge population whose life expectancy is declining and no one says anything about it. if the life expectancy of syrian refugees were going down, we'd have an announcement. this is a revolt against the elites. if she wins you can see the lesson has been learned, one would hope. >> if donald trump wins which i still is a big if, to the point i would say he's presiding over a collapse of the republican party as well. there is a complete and total realignment of the republican party. >> if you're a bernie sanders supporter and looking at these numbers and say, see?
don't you? >> look. i think this is -- what's happening out there if hillary clinton wins tonight, this is something she's going to have to tomorrow, hit the ground running to address. that what's happening out there right now is bigger than any candidate. donald trump is a flawed messener of this message. he's a flawed messenger of this message. polls are showing his voters don't like him. >> he's doing well for a flawed messenger. >> he has lots of flawed messengers that go on to win. >> look across the country. how are republicans doing in state houses tonight? they've swept the state houses, once more, how are they doing in the house of representatives? they're going to retain control of the house and looks like the senate. >> a narrower majority between the house and senate now. >> 24-10. >> the point is that democrats are picking up some of the seats.
i do not think, i think we all make a mistake, democrats and republicans alike make a mystic if we continue to look if we look at left versus right. this is different. >> major -- >> that is a very good point. i don't disagree with it. if you look at the structure of the offices held across the country, the republican party must be in good shape. >> can we look at the republican national vote? donald trump, 43 million, to hillary clinton, 40 million, just changing now. karl back to digging in. what is hillary clinton's path? to getting 270? >> her path is nevada, new hampshire, colorado, well she's won colorado so either nevada or new hampshire. plus hold the blue wall. pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, minnesota.
>> she has to run -- >> she now has to run the table. >> i want to go back to a point mo and tucker were talking about. both parties are being ruled by populism. culminating in 1920s and 30s and across the world. it's happening both parties. let's be honest about that. donald trump is a populist on the right. and he got 44% of the vote of the republican primaries. an obscure back bencher from vermont with no accomplishments to his name got 47% in the democratic party against the most formidable machine inside of the democratic party, hillary and bill clinton, backed by the president of the united states and money powers within the democratic party. both parties are being railed by this. no matter would wins or loses
tonight, the other point i make is both parties succeeded in nominating the only candidate that could, the other candidates, that the other party's candidate can beat. we're going to end up, one of them has to win. that doesn't mean the american have risen to their cause. a lot of energy is being driven by a deep concern about what president obama is doing in this country and anger in front of their lives without their say. if the president doesn't get something through congress, he does it by executive action and rubs their noses in it. >> the american people are sick and tired of being told what to do. they want smaller governor at the state level. it's the within we saw scott walker so successful in taking on labor unions telling people what they had to do with their own money. we have seen it at state led legislature level. we saw it in brexit.
people in brussels telling them how much they can use in electricity, when they can plug in their toaster at night. this is a reflection of big government. and really it's controlling how people make their decisions that impact their lives. whether it's obamacare premiums or epa implementing insane regulations out in the country, we're seeing trump voters come to the polls today. this is a revolt of the unprotected class against the protected elite class. because the unprotected class, the people on the ground, have to live with consequences of legislation and executive orders. donald trump went out there every day, when he stayed on message, and was speaking to those voters about the issues that directly affect their livelihoods. economic growth. wage stagnation. illegal immigration.
building the wall. and their economic security threatens national security threatened and he was able, by doing so, able to forth an emotional bond with these voters, which is something money cannot buy. >> here is one interesting question. one thing about donald trump we don't know is how he would govern. right? he's smart enough to say what he needed to say to get the nomination. and smart enough to say what he needed to say in the general to at least give it, give a hell of a run for her money if not win this tonight. if he gets into office, do we know? i mean given a number of positions he had and the fact he was a democrat most of his life, do we know? >> no. we don't know. >> we'd be kidding. >> we know what hillary is going to do. right? she telegraphed it. going to go hard on climate. we know one of his great passions is trade. does that mean he's going to
erect a 35% trade tariff? probably not. that is a real focus. immigration, border security, but no. we don't. we know he's liberal on social issues. he's not a conventional republican. he's pretty antiwar. talking about he's going blow up russia, he's the most antiwar candidate republicans have ever nominated. but we don't know. it's true. >> let's take a look at the trump headquarters and clinton headquarters quickly. they're not cheering at trump headquarters by clinton headquarters. >> they're motionless. >> they're doing the mannequin challenge. >> are those people? >> pins and needles right there. >> because you know what? this is not what they expected. this is not what they expected. they thought she was going to
run away with this. she's been talking in days about measuring the drapes. and the donald trump campaign had lost a bit of momentum coming into these last couple days. reports were she'd stabilized the fall she suffered after comey came out a couple weeks ago. and the american voters appear to have had something very different in mind from what the pollsters had in mind. >> this is the moment when we projected that barack obama was going to win in 2008. around 11:15, he was going to beat mitt romney. i think a lot of us thought this was going to be over in this half hour. we're a long way away. do we know how donald trump is going to govern? do you think how donald trump knows? a number of people talked to donald trump after he won the nomination, he admitted to them, i never thought i was
going to win the nomination. my guess is that in his heart of hearts i'm in the sure as he sits there he thought he was going to be the next president of the united states. >> you look at the extravagance of promises he's going to do these things. none of those things is going to be easy but it will be easier than it would have been. >> we also looking at the candidate of robert redford in the 70s, do you think trump is sitting in the tower saying "what do we do now?" we have to run to a break and we have more still to come. more calls to come. we're watching donald trump with momentum now. >> a few big states are still up in the air, including michigan and pennsylvania. stay with us. live from fox news world headquarters, on an unbelievable night. constipated? trust number one doctor recommended dulcolax
welcome back. a call from the fox news decision desk. hillary clinton wins the state of oregon. it goes to the democrats' column, adding to her electoral votes. they got those mail in ballots in. >> the drama is gone. >> not in the over all race and not at trump and clinton headquarters. take a look at the situation there. we're going to check in first with carl cameron with trump hq. what is the mood there? >> i got a call from a senior trump official who was clearly optimistic and pumped up and keenly interested in what is going on in michigan, wisconsin, minnesota, iowa. these states where they're seeing the possibility of accumulating what they need to get to 270.
the biggest target here is michigan. the trump campaign, campaigning into election day as the last campaign event of their preelection day campaign last night. they were able to stay until the clock struck midnight. now, everybody go get ready to vote. there was such symbolism and skepticism. they were leaving to michigan that hasn't voted republican since ronald reagan. back in the 80s that the reagan democrats were invented. and now, looks like they'll be trump democrats. it's still going to be a nail biter and a late night.
>> 222 to 209. let's go to jen griffin. jen, we've looked in there and it is very still. >> it is subdued. you can hear a pin drop. we have not seen any top campaign aides. they're not coming out. we're told from sources on the campaigns they're very nervous right now. they do say that nothing hillary clinton has ever gotten in her life has come easily. so they're not ruling out that she can pull this out. i would say this is a nail biter here. and not what they expected. we did hear all along today that she's preparing two speeches because she's superstitious and did not want to only prepare an acceptance speech. one tweet saying no matter what happens tonight she had a great team and the team did a great job which was an ominous tweet
just about two hours ago. bret? >> we have not called alaska, arizona, georgia, maine, michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. that that is a lot of real estate. >> wow. now, the co-host of the five, but, unbelievable. right? >> let me start with you. juan. as the democrat. >> yes. >> what is the truth there? they have to be in full on panic mode now. no? . >> i don't think there is anyone watching tonight who is a democrat who is not just bewildered but sick to their stomach. how does this make sense? it is just out of the blue. it's not only that it doesn't conform with what we have seen in terms of the polls and polls, they don't think he's qualified,
he doesn't have the temperament. it doesn't conform with we're going to turn out more white, working class voters. they haven't. they've got a higher percentage in terms of the vote based on that, but you have to say what is the heart of this? i heard people say the independents. the undecided went strongly for trump. people late coming to the table shifted towards trump in the last few minutes. does that come back to something you were talking about earlier? comey and the fbi? i don't know. i don't know. something happened and it is just, it's the people who worked in washington, the people that know the political structure in this country. it is revolutionary. >> i think the mistake was portraying this insider versus
outsider. this is culture versus culture. when you're in a small town and mily cyrus mocks you for your believes, you see people saying i have had enough of that culture. i don't need you anymore. this is the f-u in this culture, hillary is more unliked than the flu. michael moore, you had him on, he was the most correct person on this. he was on the left and saw what's happening. he saw a wide swath of people that were unhappy and ignored by the left and right. i have to buy him his favorite pie. he nailed it. the one thing about trump, ideology is dead. he killed it. > big call to make. fox news is projecting donald
trump won the state of wisconsin. and there goes her blue wall. that is ten electoral votes, bringing vote up to 232. he's officially pierced the blue wall she needed to hold on to which is momentous. wisconsin, wisconsin. >> once we saw ron johnson win that senate race, we knew wisconsin was going to be a different picture. donald trump, at 232 electoral votes is now 38 electoral votes away from winning the presidency of the united states of america. >> do we have dana's mic on? >> can you hear me now? >> scott walker, governor of wisconsin had one reelection, he came out for trump after being
reluctant, came back for him in a big way, cross crossed that state with paul ryan. they were able to get ron johnson and donald trump, those voters to turn out for him. i think that that is momentous and a big revolution is underway. >> just to pick up what greg was saying and michael moore who knows white working class voters. this is what he said. he is not a trump fan. he said you're going to blow up the system and you're going to be sorry about it. the point he was making before he got to the end was, i have the quote here, joe blow, bob blow, all the blows get to blow up the system because that is your right. trump's election is going to be the biggest f-u ever recorded in history. he said it will feel good for a day. and he understands this group of people. this group of voters, kimberly. >> yes. >> and had been saying all along
to democrats to dismiss him at your own peril. >> stand by. >> another one? >> a big one. iowa will go to donald trump. six electoral votes for donald trump. iowa, he turned the state of iowa to donald trump. this is -- can i go ahead -- this is if trump holds the rest of the romney states, and projected to win, that is 269, which gives him the victory assuming the house votes for him. he needed 16 between michigan, or wisconsin, plus iowa. iowa is six. michigan and wisconsin 10 each. there is your 16, you're watching history being made. and i think the country is speaking. i think what we didn't see, didn't see, for months we talked
about people who will not admit they're going to vote for donald trump. and then, they got in there, they ended up voting for donald trump. >> what you said is important on the numbers. they presumed trump was going to keep the romney states in the republican column. and that that would get him to 253. the question has been how is he going to get that extra 17? and he just won iowa, six, and wisconsin, which is ten. that is 16. this is assuming he wins romney's states. this is 269, 1 electoral vote away from winning the presidency. >> no. that is it. >> if there is a tie. >> there is only 538. the house votes.
>> he doesn't -- >> it doesn't have to be a tie. he can still win outright. >> of course. >> i'm saying at the minimum, he's got the presidency. as we sit right here, you don't need to call pennsylvania. that is it. >> want to get back to kimberly. just color for you now. hillary clinton's team is at the javitz center. the report is that people are crying in the audience. and some are beginning to leave. because they're feeling something very different from what the folks at trump campaign headquarters are feeling and what people outside of the window here. we don't often have throngs of people waiting outside of the fox news channel. >> trump exceeded all expectations. people said he's a closer, don't count him out. we saw he defeated capable and
talented people that would have made fine presidents. he spoke to people, and connected to them. he was sitting at their table having dinner with them. talking to them about their paychecks and founders and talking about drain the swamp. and it's in many ways a repudiation of politics the way we knew it before today with this turn out and a lot of people came out for him. and the polls were not accurate in terms of what was predicted for hillary clinton. >> also, mike pens from indiana went around the country and said republicans have to come home. >> right. >> they have to come home. and they did come home. nine out of 10 supported him according to the polls tonight. >> there is no need to blame never trumpers tonight. he was able to get 90% of the republican vote. maybe they came in late in terms of the deciding factor.
of the last 10 days, possibly, from hillary clinton's e-mail problems. because you saw in the exit polls that what is it? 64% of the people said the e-mail story bothered them a lot. about mike pence, very close friends with paul ryan, so we do go back to, i think, august, was able to say let's try to work together. we can do this. and that is when you saw paul ryan say, all right. i'm on board. he is sort of shakily on board but on board to deliver that important state of wisconsin. >> what is the reaction to this going to be tomorrow, juan? from democrats? who not only believe he had no chance but feared him. it is not your average election. right? this is very different. >> i think very different and i
think people do not think is real. like oh, my god is this a movie? >> if trump wins maine, michigan, pennsylvania or new hampshire he's the president. >> right. i know. i'm saying that is real. i can read the numbers. i don't know what happens in nevada. we'll see. but to my mind, you asked about tomorrow morning and how people feel when picking up the paper and hear fox news channel. i think among democrats and some republicans, there is going to be a huge sense of disbelief. >> do you know what it is? imagine for democrats is not a hangover, it's a hangover after a three day bachelor party bender. you wake up, your clothes are missing and half of your bank account is gone. >> that is every weekend. >> yes. that will be a shock to the system, it will take time to get over it. the interesting thing about trump is that we talked about the rigged system. all he did was steal from
obama's play book. obama said america was rigged against the disadvantage. he just replaced disadvantaged with patriots. nationalists. just replaced it. >> had to look at the possibility tonight that donald trump could win the presidency. republicans could hold the senate. and republicans can hold the house. >> guess what? >> what does that mean for the country? >> it means -- i think in the first 100 days you do repeal and replace obamacare with something that would be more palatable to business. and small business. i think that would be number one. second thing you'll see, supreme court, that is just huge. it's huge for republicans. other thing is border security he made a promise early on to keep it. >> stand by. another call to make. fox news decision desk is projecting donald trump won the state of georgia. which is also important. it wasn
it wasn't -- again, an important one to him. and it has gone red. >> just take a look. >> to get there, she did not flip it. >> okay. sorry. you're saying? >> those first 100 days will be very important. kimberly makes a great point about the supreme court. we have so many appointments that will have to be made. it's interesting to find someone not a washington insider. who do you choose? who is your circle you're going to put in to run the government? >> do you think sarah palin is going to be part of the cabinet? >> i don't know. >> juan does not support that notion. >> i did say he's going to build a wall and mexico is going to pay for it. i will say that is the only true shovel ready job in america. more shovel ready than barack obama's trillion dollar spending he spree. >> he says they're going to build a wall and pay for it. >> the peso dropped. >> brexit, the cubs, donald
trump, no one saw it coming. i called all three of those. look. this -- can we bring up the ones you didn't call? >> i called everyone of them, greg, my friend. >> it's not about -- >> however, however, it's about the country. the country has spoken. i do push back on insider versus outsider and that is what they're ready for. >> let me just say as different voice, idea you'd say oh, i'm going to have mayor rudy giuliani as my attorney general. i'm going to have newt gingrich my secretary of state. and dana is talking about where do you find qualified people? where are republicans who have been in the last republican administration who are now willing to come right for it? this is a shock to people that goes beyond the immediate glee that republicans, or trump people will be feeling at this moment. >> there is concern in republican circles as well, from
a national security point of view. there are a number of republican who's never signed on to donald trump's campaign because they're concerned. they're concerned about national security vision. they weren't ready to give hillary clinton a nod but there is concern. >> just look at the screen. look at the faces of the people at clinton campaign headquarters. you can feel the concern. look at the furrowed brows. >> it's somber. >> very somber. they understand what's happening. there is shock on the faces of her supporters. >> no. obviously. there is a serious concern for them tonight. the path they thought was going to lead to the oval has not proven to be true thus far. >> looks like a coldplay concert. >> as it relates to chris martin, as it relates to national security, that showed in the primaries that women cared about, and the economy, food on the table. money in the wallet.
border secure. secure here at home, making sure that we control isis and other forces that would do us ill harm. in terms of that, i think he's going to have to say at this point if he wins the presidency, listen to people. have everybody come forward. have an open mind about national security, and get the best and brightest to come forward. we have to build bridges at this point. >> at this hour, there are ambassadors in washington calling to try to figure out what donald trump will do as president of the united states. what they don't know already. because there is concern you can feel from, and hillary clinton talked about it. from around the world, about how this is going to go down. that is the point some of the republicans -- >> i think that will settle down and i think there will be a significant number of republicans in washington who worked for reagan, george hw
bush or george w. bush who will be willing to come in and be a part of the time if donald trump is willing. >> that should be his first 100 days. reach those people. the people who are never trumpers and say look. we still need you as a party. this is still the republican party. and if he can do that, if he can bridge that, boy. we're better off. conservatives are better off. >> this is an emotional blah. right? everybody just went, but i'm in the sure this is good for america. i mean, everybody may feel, oh, i can't. i'm so glad -- but i've got to tell you something. you've got to wonder. >> i think it will settle down and the question of what donald trump and will not do, i think he will be measured in that. >> he just held a great big tent
for america and republican parties and i'd like to say as puerto rican member i would like to see what the numbers end up being so we can learn and try to heal and move together as a country. i think he's going to be interested in doing that. he's going to want to be a successful president, he has to do that. >> stand by. it's 11:44. we have not called the presidency but we're getting a better feel for where this race is going. the night looks good for donald trump. he won wisconsin, north carolina and iowa. >> we're waiting on pennsylvania and michigan. fox news live coverage of a pretty-amazing election night when you think about all of the scenarios from the very beginning. 016 continues now. 2016 continue. the pursuit of healthier.
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. donald trump, on the verge, potentially, of winning the presidency of the united states. sean hannity joins us by phone. >> you've got to get juan willia williams off that limb. what everybody missed here is donald trump had to go against a republican establishment, a democratic establishment, a media establishment, a globalist establishment and the main thing they've been missing in all of this is very basic. that is we have 13 million more americans in poverty, 8 million more on poverty. the lowest homeownership rate in 51 years. the worst recovery in 40 years.
and if you look abroad, i heard you talking about this, how is the world going to react to donald trump being i think there is going to be a healthy bit of fear, which i don't think they would have had with hillary or barack obama. fear that america is going to rebuild the military and probably to the get involved with foreign conflicts to, me this was predictable, but on the other hand this is a modern day political miracle you're witnessing right now. and that is to go up against everybody. and all of the pundits and po pollsters and the american have said enough is enough. they're tired of the corruption. the sess pool, draining the swamp. when you look at a state like wisconsin they want their jobs back. they want the labor participation rate to be lower,
more people having jobs. they want america to be energy independent. they're tired of a horrible educational system. they're tired of obamacare rates going through the roof. what's happening now is not working. these guys and donald trump has gone out there and outworked hillary clinton, and he put forward a much better agenda, and america said enough is enough with failed policy. that is what this election is about. >> sean, it's megyn here. just a couple weeks ago, you were walking into the studio, right, my hour was ending. you're coming in. the night of the comey announcement. you were relieved and feeling like it was a game changer like it was going to restart momentum. do you feel that was the moment, the tipping point that switched things back after what had been a hideous month for trump? or was it something else? what was it? >> i think all of the things just mentioned. i remember the night well. i put my hands up in the air and
said "we're back in the game". but what drives elections? peace and prosperity. america is not prosperous. america is not working. hillary lied about her e-mails, lied about benghazi. she's corrupt. she's so dishonest. look at the exit polls tonight. at the end of the day, you know, it's donald trump like every other person? we're all flawed and sinned and fallen short? yes. maybe he wasn't spending his life running for president, which is probably why he went on the the howard stern show. if my plan was to run for president i probably won't go on howard's show. americans saw a guy that was really successful, and really had a dream, that america could be a lot better. look. we have nearly 15 million americans in poverty. nearly 15 million americans on food stamps. 95 million americans out of the labor force. these are millions of our fellow
s citizens that are suffering. things are getting worse. this president is taking on more debt than any other president before him, combined. americans are looking at their children and grandchildren sand saying this is immoral and has to stop. that is the reason why i feel confident coming into tonight that he had a very good chance, though a difficult path, as we've been following the news all night, and he was able to pull it off because the american people deep down inside, they cut through the clutter and the noise, and they cut through the spin and said we're not on the right path. >> is this a country that changed its demographics? is it a country that is now ready to kick the table over and say washington doesn't work? >> washington doesn't work. >> where do you see the state of the country now? >> i think the state of the
country is simple. you know, look. it's not that complicated. if it really that hard to get away from nea, top down, education, run from washington, common core standards or better to give it back to states? when washington promises keep your doctor and keep your plan and save $2500 per family, a year, and people lose doctors, plans and paying $4100 a year more, and then, seeing increases next year of 100%, they'll begin to realize they've been lied to. when they see 600 requests before benghazi attack and our government did nothing, they see government failing. when brave men and women fight, bleed, and die in mosul and baghdad and we pull out and
create an opening to isis, they say that is a failure, when you give $400 million to the number one state sponsor of terror, that is a failure, on every objective measure, this is about one thing. they see washington is broken. and republicans are just as guilty. paul ryan is not going to be the speaker of the house in january. i was going to save that for my program tomorrow. he's not going to be the speaker. i mean, an amazing turn of events because the establishment on both sides lost touch with the real lives of real americans and donald trump opened the door said we're going to fix it and turn the table over. do you know what? i wish him all the best. it's not going to be easy. because the same people that open owe -- opposed him tonight are going to be opposing him tomorrow. >> have you spoken with him tonight? at all? >> about three times, yes.
>> what did he say? whatever you can share? >> well, it's -- you know, he's kind of superstitious. i talked to him nights before he would do debates. so he's kind of been, you know just holding his breath and waiting and watching. i think he's very sober about it. and i think you know he's a guy that loves a big challenge. you think of it's not something i do, though i worked in the building industry, hanging wall paper and framing and laying tile. if you start to build 150 stories and go straight up it's a pretty ambitious project. i think he's viewing it the same way. >> do you think he had an understanding that he might win this thing tonight? of course, realistically, some of the messaging out of the trump team early in the evening was like, well, you know, we wish we had more support. it didn't seem like they
expected this. >> i told them yesterday and tonight, do not believe the exit polls. no matter what happens, don't buy it. and i just felt that like what we have seen in great britain, i'm going to tell you other issues that are resonating. the fact our borders are wide open, and you have 95 million americans out of the labor force, and then, you have 11 million people that didn't follow the law competing for jobs and driving down wages, the average person out of work that is a big deal. you know? to look at isis and al qaeda and the threats they pose to this country and see what happened in catting in chattanooga and orlando, the fact we have open borders seem dumb to the average person. and that hillary says we can't
vet refugees but going to increase the number by 650%. the average american saying maybe donald trump is right. we can take care of people and be compassionate and provide military support and maybe if you come from a culture that says you can tell women how to dress and can't drive and a man can tell a woman whether or not they can go to school or work, maybe that is too big of a conflict for a constitutional republic we live under. and how do we ascertain whether or not they're coming to america because they want freedom and opportunity that we provide or do they want to advance the caliphate? you can't determine what is in someone's heart. >> it looks like the u.s. senate will be in republican control. thin majority, but looks like
republican control. u.s. house of representatives in republican control. if it is a president-elect trump, what would you tell him about working with a republican house and senate? >> i've told the senate and house to work with him. i think he's laid out an agenda on borders, education, obamacare, health care savings accounts, trying not to be as interventionist as we've perhaps been in the past. especially after the pull out in iraq. and i think his agenda on energy is so important. i think the idea of lowering tax rates and allowing trillions to be repatriated, i think there is a huge model here that represents the reagan model and kennedy model that led in the
face of reagan, the largest point of peace time economic growth in history. i would think the only issue he might have with some republicans may be over trade. but i'm a free trader but believe in fair trade. and some of the deals have been so detrimental to those people. we can bring billions of dollars to big corporations tired of paying the rate this country charges, one of the highest in the industrialized world. we'll incentivize them to bring back trillions and manufacturing centers here, it will be amazing. >> sean hannity. there are not a lot of people in the beginning who believed you when you talked about this. and it looks now -- >> bret there are people ready to rip my head off at the end of tonight. trust me, i'm well aware of that. >> sean, we're watching history tonight.
>> yes, we are indeed. >> i'm here with bill hemmer at the data deck. the point is what is her possible path? >> wow. amazing. >> yes. >> he's 16 votes away from getting the magic number. at this point, if he wins michigan, it's done. >> done. >> i'll show you michigan in just a moment. since you asked, we'll go through a scenario. she did 209. and looking at pennsylvania, let's say okay. she runs the table. michigan, minnesota, nevada. state of maine. new hampshire. doesn't get her there. arizona would, however. 276. >> she's got to win everything. >> yes. >> every remaining state. >> at the moment, in michigan,
so he's up a point and a half. quick math. 3 million votes tallied so far. so there is still votes coming in. this is a state, we'll see. >> did i do that? >> sorry. not allowed to touch that. sorry. technology. iowa. >> sorry. >> look what this state is doing at the moment. compared to four years ago. right? you see the blue fill in? it's all trump. >> different story. >> this is different story. >> in wisconsin, too. watch here four years ago, megyn. here. >> yes. >> counties. and trump's message has worked in that part of the country. this is what the map looked like
in 2012. we have been asking for months now in 2016. so far just filling in. can she win? she can. >> she has to win everything to win at this point? >> almost. >> is that how it's looking? >> she can lose in new hampshire, the state of maine. she can lose alaska. but everything else, i mean, back on this, on this thread, as it stands now, it's all michigan. >> it's incredible. i'm not going to touch it. but the numbers in michigan where they made a last minute play there. again, couple weeks ago after comey, some saw trump going back to michigan and virginia. they realized were very much in play. and team clinton very aware of it, too. sending barack obama and michelle obama. >> yesterday, this is where
hillary clinton had a rally. this is a republican part of the state. i mean romney got 67% of the vote in this county. this is grand rapids area. this is gerald ford presidential library territory. i was making the case yesterday, i can see if she went down here, just west of detroit. that is ann arbor. >> the base. >> yes. >> you wonder now, i mean, were they seeing something we did not? >> listen, what do i know? my belief having listened to the messaging is that the clinton campaign came into today confident and the trump campaign was a little questioning. listen to the messaging up until tonight, we're on the air, you know? she was projecting that this is how i would govern. we have to remember trump voters. and he was saying whatever happens, you know, it was a great run. we've changed the country.
it's flipped now. >> friday afternoon, i met with three leading members of the trump campaign. they were adamant they were winning north carolina and going to win north carolina. >> they always say that. >> i understand. >> they're arguing their internal numbers show them up 100,000 votes. whatever it is. they were debating and said they felt good about florida, too. and we got these debates back and forth. i agree with you. i think in the past week to ten days, the question about michigan was discussed. >> because prior to that, he had been hemorrhaging in the polls right? we had "access hollywood" and alicia machado thing.
numbers were not on his side but there was a shift before the election night. and it, from the look of it, she never recovered. >> you mentioned michael moore about 30 minutes ago. he was on another network the other day and said i'm warning you. i know the people who live in my state. i know how they think and what their concerns on. i remind you that hillary clinton in the prepolling in the primary against bernie sanders was up across the board and he stunned her in that state. >> and michigan is notorious for bad polling. >> depending on how this turns out -- >> they'll start their own recriminations probably in 30 seconds. hemmer, thanks. bret? >> there are sad faces at the hillary clinton campaign headquarters. some people crying and stone faced. they can't believe it. and we're back with our panel,
brit hume, chris wallace, joe trippi and tucker carlson. frankly, minnesota? >> well, she's got to draw to the inside straight. this is every election, you may the game. we'll flip this and that. this is the craziest inside straight path that you have to draw at this point. she's got to run the whole northern tier, getting arizona and get it all. she can do it. right now, minnesota looks hard for her. we identified minnesota early on in this campaign as a play that could be good for trump. this is jesse ventura country. and minnesota could be good. it's looking good for him. >> joe trippi she has to win in michigan and new hampshire. >> yes. no. it -- chris is right. you look at this, minnesota,
michigan might come back, trump is ahead there now. but minnesota is looking, that may be the toughest thing for her to pull off. >> and then, i've been talking about new hampshire all night long. i thought she's going to have to win there to do this. >> what is your thought now? you came into the night confident. >> yes. no. i'm surprised and, yeah. you know? never -- i thought -- >> are heads exploding of people you're talking to? what's happening? >> no. i think most people, it wasn't they thought that she was going to blow him out or anything, but they thought there was no path for her, very tough for him to get to 270. and with the flaws and everything else, they thought that is going, i thought, too. >> she's now -- she's now where we thought he was. >> right. >> that is the shock. it's not shah she doesn't have a
path to 270. she's now the one to have to thread the needle. and when you look at the spaces and counties out, and you look at what is going on, particularly in minnesota that may be the place, if she doesn't make it it may be because of minnesota. >> yeah. >> karl rove? >> i came in to the night thinking he could sweep but in wisconsin we may run up that state twice. 5500 votes in 2000. >> talk about that. talk about that just a moment. the lack of what is perceived as a lack of a ground game with the trump campaign. rnc had a ground game. he was criticized by people. a lot of election experts who said this is a nothing campaign. he's not spending enough money. he's not running ads. and he ran the inside straight.
>> well, if he -- winning wisconsin, he ought to thank two people. governor scott walker, and speaker of the house, paul ryan. they have built in that state a political machine through walker's races, that extends from the top to bottom and better organized than probably any state in the country. they have all of people, all of the technology and leadership and executed it. if i were sean hannity, i would not be recommending if trump wins the first thing he does is pick a fight with the house of representatives and try to get paul ryan out. paul ryan is one of the big reasons why he carried wisconsin tonight. and a newly elected president does not need to open up a civil war with legislative branch of his party. >> we know that in wisconsin, he got a terrible shellacking in the primaries from ted cruz. and all of that was working
against him in the primaries. did they all fall in line and work full out for him? >> talk radio was, put that aside. that is not under control of party leaders. yes. >> no. no. let me finish. let me finish. yes, he spent -- >> what do you think? >> let me finish. last weekend, where do you think paul ryan was? stumping the state in the bus tour saying vote for the republican ticket. >> but karl. >> yes. yes. >> look. sure, he didn't campaign with him. he campaigned on behalf of the house of representatives around the country, raising $50 millio. >> paul ryan is an honorable guy but it is an over statement to saying he is responsible for donald trump winning wisconsin.
he was making the point clear that he thought trump was indefensible. which is a real point. >> you think that the "access hollywood" type is morally defensible? >> i'm in the saying that. >> time out, time out. >> republicans are winning tonight. right? >> shoulder to the wheel. [ speaking over one another ]. >> can i get a flag or something? joe trippi. the reason we're here, one, donald trump hit a cord with people fed up with washington. hillary clinton did not -- she under performed in african americans. >> that is true. >> the other side of this --
>> were they going to -- african americans were never going to turn out for the first african american president in history. it wasn't going to happen. there are two things what interested me in the exit poll. there is a question there, that asked if you wanted to -- do you want to continue president obama's policies? do you want to undo this policy? or do you think we should have, the country should go a liberal direction than obama? do you know what fascinated me? the majority chose continuous policies, or get more liberal. and 22% of the people who said get more liberal, voted for trump. that is an amazing -- >> bernie sanders, those who never thought they're going to
vote for donald trump. >> it may not be latinos were building a gap. looking at exit numbers, the fascinating thing, were those people who voted for trump, and i'm not blaming them, just saying that is a number i'd like to get into. >> last word, quickly. >> it's clear what happened. or what's happening. which is there are two models for the electorate. one included a lot of blue collar voters who were going to storm to the polls and do it. and they did it. >> two candidates are 95% of the electorate. we have had the highest percentage of third party votes we have had since 1996. >> michigan. >> and what's happening is we're having -- we're having some white voters who might otherwise have been found in the camp of democrat or republican saying pox on both of their houses i'm moving into the third party. >> you can see that in that
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welcome back, everybody. trump headquarters just steps from here, and hillary clinton's headquarters, farther downtown. we're told donald trump is on his way to donald trump headquarters which will be great news to people who is been there all night and the mood will shift and just a little bit of color for you. david swap has been saying he felt the electoral college for her would ensure her victory tonight. he just tweeted out something interesting, saying never been as wrong as anything in my life. still a beating heart in wisconsin and two congressional
districts. >> it was at 12:02:00 a.m. sobriety is essential. we're hearing how people need to get real about projections and misreading. >> let's bring our panel. >> most unhappy about this moment and this vote, the legacy of president obama, affordable care act that will be repealed and replaced, the iran nuclear deal, an executive deal that could be torn up, the legacy of the 44th president of the united states is truly at 254 electoral votes in jeopardy.
>> absolutely. and you know we saw both barack obama and michelle obama campaigning fiercely for hillary clinton over the last couple months and last week. and yes, i'm sure he's been at peace with hillary clinton but he was campaigning for himself. he knew the only way to preserve the legacy, and things you talk about that are up for grabs, trade, foreign policy, climate change, those issues are, trump was opposed to the obama policy. there is another thing here, and i'd love to ask karl about it. eight years ago, when obama was elected, he got a filibuster proof majority in the senate, and a huge majority in the house. he had all of washington under his control, now, it looks like if he's elected president, and this is what i'm going to ask
karl, when is the last time, because it didn't happen under reagan or the bushes, when did the last time the republican president had a republican congress? >> 1928. >> 1928? >> wow. so eisenhower never had it either? >> no. >> incredible. >> he had the senate. >> picking up on bret's point, the executive orders, one after another, after another. and the seizing of executive power. >> you add up all of the orders done by his pen, it is an enormous amount. trump promised to pull them all back. that could have as much of an impact on anything he can do. these can be done with a stroke of a pen. >> and democrats who had no problem with a executive wielding his pen in that way may
feel very differently about it when it's donald trump's pen. >> one other thing is that you've got two republican senate candidates who moved away from tru trump. joe heck and kelly ott. it didn't help them. >> and you have the supreme court. you have the merrick garland nomination. that you've got older democrats like ruth bader-ginzberg, and you know this could become a dramatically different supreme court. >> martha, we want to bring you in. bill burton on his twitter account. my country is a different place than i thought it was when i woke up this morning.
>> you're going to hear a lot of that. this is a stunning, stunning night. if indeed it looks like the outcome is what it appears to be. and let me just point out interesting small poll details we haven't looked at yet that i think are revealing. for people who said neither one of these presidential candidates is qualified to serve, in this office, for that sliver, they went for trump 69%. okay? so for people who were disgusted with options, 69% of them went for donald trump. how about this one? neither presidential candidate has temperament to serve in the white house. neither one. of that a -- sliver, 70% went for donald trump. and 11%, donald trump -- hillary clinton. for people who had to make a
choice, they went for donald trump. you think about donald trump saying you know why not give it a try? you have nothing to lose. right? when you think about, and i'll bring it up again, mitt romney model or other republicans who run, and lost, he outdid those voters with working class whites, black voters and hispanic voters. and more people identify as republican. >> he also did it with evangelicals. think we're going to see more evangelical votes than we've seen in 2004. >> i'm struck by the division. people who voted for hillary clinton, 97% said a trump win would be quote, scary. so it's not just hillary in mourning tonight, it's the democratic party, virtually every director of every big bank, every hedge fund manager, every lobbyist, it's the world
that we live in. every person looking up and saying what is this? they didn't understand the country presided over. i think that is a real question. >> a serious question is as you can see with these vote totals, so conversation for a long time was would donald trump accept the result of the election? would he say it was rigged? there is a good question for hillary clinton supporters. if donald trump wins an electoral majority but a popular defeat, are democrats going to be kool and the gang when it comes to numbers? >> let's take a look at the numbers. >> right. >> but what's happening here is as the left coast comes in she's going to be surging high in
popular vote. regardless of what's happening on the states we're waiting on, i'm pretty sure hillary clinton is going to have a popular vote win. we talked about this earlier. we laughed at chris for asking. you know? that happens and it's going to be, but it never happens. i think it's going to happen tonight. she's going to win the popular vote. if he picks up minnesota or michigan, wins the electoral college. >> we have a call tomake. fox news is calling nevada for hillary clinton. it's six electoral votes will go in the clinton category. not a huge surprise. and this, too, as we look at the market, the dow is down 833
points. nasdaq and s & p down so low, they halted them. until the market opens tomorrow morning. martha you used to be a business reporter. what does that mean? >> it's a double brexit. this is the same shock. the brexit vote came down, they felt like it was going their way. they started to say no. it's not. and everyone of those markers started to flip. you saw the volatility index going. >> ier and that points to what you're seeing in the dow jones industrials. it's a tremendous amount of shock and uncertainty. however, you do have to wonder, with the house, and senate, with donald trump, he's going to peel back regulations on businesses. that is going to be very good for small business in this country. if he does peel back obamacare, that may have a positive affect on small business. there may be a bit of panic with this very surprising outcome,
day two, day three story may be different. >> the signal, right. >> this is more than just panic. this is brexit, super charged. this is the u.s. here is the french ambassador. after brexit and this election, everything is possible. a world is collapsing before our eyes. dizziness. do you know what i mean? >> they're not getting it. #notgettingit. >> the country made a decision. >> the fact the french don't like it is rather good news to me. i feel. as martha points out, this is likely to be a business-friendly administration. so panic in the stock market seems like a buying opportunity. i think that is right. i know there is no accounting for the taste of people if
britain, and europe, in particular. my sense about is that they'll be fine with it and allies will be fine with it as donald trump acts the way he can reasonably be expected to act. >> referring to mexico. >> right. >> people talk about afterwards he'd choked and not demanded the wall but he was very respectful, very moderate and contained. >> very presidential. >> to the mexican president. >> he was. >> then, he went back to phoenix and burned the house down on immigration. >> that may be so. but my sense about this, look, is that he's won, he's got his party behind him. if he gets one last piece in place, if he's got michigan he's got it. and i mean, it's hard for me. >> what about minnesota? >> either one will do it. right? he's there. and and it is a new reality.
people who get wrought up about these things, this country was built to deal with such changes and shocks. the republic will endure no matter what. i think the worry is misplaced. the fact it shakes up our politics, in both parties, that is probably a good thing. and look. give this guy credit. he had guts. and he endured strings and arrows from people that were indisposed to liking and took criticism from the press and it's going to continue. and in the end he gutted it out. i think he deserves the credit. >> the media, in the primaries loved donald trump. they pumped him up. as soon as he secured a nomination, the tone shifted and it was notable. and some of the accusers and
women that came forward, were given full hours on other channels today sit and tell their stories unrebuted with no donald trump defender there. is a question, about donald trump is no fan of the media. i think decided to try to disqualify the medias a group. he knew about the howard stern interview and controversies in his past. he decided to say, i have got to disqualify them as a group. i'm not going to be able to respond to these individual attacks and it worked. >> it showed that the power of the media is not what it might once have been. >> putting this into historical perspective, compare it to reagan in 80. the shock people said no. this actor cannot -- he was a governor in california. >> two terms. >> this is the first time if this happens as we expect it's going to happen, if he runs either michigan or minnesota, this is the first time that
someone who has never been in office would be president of the united states. >> or served in the military. >> i -- and i would defer to karl about the greater historical background than i do. but certainly in my lifetime, going back to the first lincoln administration, is where we got to know each other. >> it's a shocker. >> the governor of new york against a president. this is donald trump. this is someone never served in the military, a reality game show host. and a billionaire, very successful in business, he's going to be likely the next president of the united states. is there a bigger shock? >> not since pt barnum considered running for president. >> has there been a president that has been a bigger shock?
>> no. this is absolutely unusual. >> karl, think about, to your point, and to the thing just discussed, new york magazine is on stands all over the place with a donald trump close up, in a nasty-looking face and the words "loser" over the front of his face. that is what is on the stands right now. [ talking over one another ]. >> i was in a meeting and said should we do that? what if he wins? should we do that? everyone in the room said come on, now. get to the childrens' table, you're an idiot. >> the george stephanopoulos clip he was asking who do you think is going to win? and ann coulter said i think donald trump, but he was literally a joke to many of these pundits.
>> he could take that cover and hold it up tonight if he wins. >> another thing that happened is that a view was taken because he was such an exotic character, the normal neutrality, the way we, the style and method in which we cover campaigns was to be suspended because to treat him and hillary clinton with on par with each other is quote, false equivalents. they felt relieved to cover him fairly, even after he got the nomination. >> i think especially after he got the nomination. >> i agree with that. >> with the "new york times" and washington post should look to themselves. i know they have made comments about our network. but the out right bias and lack of objectivity of the people, it's a shame. >> and i would say i wasn't a big trump fan at all. but when i took this two months of the job as an anchor i felt i was still out of the obligation
to try to treat him fairly. too many people suspended that. i think we did a good job of playing it straight for him. we had people who were trump backers. i'm just talking about those of us who cover news on a day-to-day basis. >> let's take a look at trump headquarters there. the podium and the signs make america great again. and we have a moment of history happening. we're waiting for michigan and minnesota, and we're waiting for new hampshire. and we're waiting here on fox news channel. election coverage, 2016. new bikes aren't selling guys...
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could've parked a little bit closer... it's gonna be dark by the time i get there. geico. proudly serving the military for over 75 years. welcome back to fox news election headquarters. we have a senate call. democrats will hold on to a senate seat in nevada. catherine mastro will win over joe heck, this was a hard fought battle over the seat of hairry reid. and now, they hold that seat. it was not a flip. it's a democratic seat. so far, they have picked up one as far as flipping seats on the
net gain and media net gain of five. >> doesn't look like it's going to happen tonight. want to bring in steve hilton, great to see you, steve, though you're with david cameron, you wanted to brexit. how do you see tonight's election in america relating to what we saw in the uk? with brexit? . >> i think there are two similarities and they go to the heart of explaining what happened tonight. i think the first is the way in which during brexit, you saw the political and media and business establishments really uniting in their contempt for voters who favored brexit, describing them as narrow minded and racist and painting them as just nasty people. and we saw that here, you know, typified with hillary clinton's basket of deplorables.
i think what that meant is that people didn't want to say they're supporting donald trump just as they didn't want to say they're supporting brexit. that supports the shock. the deeper point, the real similarity is in the under lying reason for the vote. and that is what actually happened in the real lives of millions of people thanks to glob glob glob global sxags. and a indata in america, the median income in america is lower today than in 1999. that means is that half of all americans earn less today than 17 years ago. they have had eight years of bush, eight years of obama, and incomes are down. it's no wonder they look to someone, anyone, to try to make
a difference in their lives. >> steve, it's bret baier. you said there is a possibility this is brewing. donald trump used that open the campaign trail and said this is going to be brexit plus, plus, plus. is it? what about the world reaction? we saw brexit, they said everything is going to collapse. what do you think of that? >> well, here, i think there is a big difference with brexit. and for america this is an actual election. you have a candidate on a platform with policies they want to implement if they win. with brexit, there is similarities as to what this meant. here, the likely outcome is that you have a republican in the white house, a republican
controlled both parts of congress. that means you'll be able to see the implementations of the agenda that over time, will reassure the business community and the financial community that that at least we might get serious economic growth going that will benefit people left behind and business, againally. i think in the end, despite what you might see, this is going to be very positive. >> and so, you think it's going to, that people will be reassured as days and weeks pass in a way they might not be tomorrow, half of the country is going to be disappointed but this has been a brutal battle. and people are going to be licking their wounds for a while now. >> yes. i thought you captured it well earlier, talking about this saying half of the people are going to be cheering and the
other half, this guy people they see as dangerous and evil now going to be in charge of leading the country. i think it's important, we'll see, perhaps this evening, how trump responds tho-to this momeo start to reassure people that he is someone can that can get the economy going and bring the country together at a time when it's going to be really anxious. >> steve hilton, thank you very much for your perspective. >> we continue to wait for results from several states now, including michigan, minnesota, new hampshire, arizona, maine, pennsylvania, and alaska. a lot of electoral votes are outstanding. a very, very narrow path available for her. >> maine and michigan both
approved minimum wage increases and economic impact, talking about markets but gold is up more than 4% tonight. >> yikes. >> everyone is getting their me mesothelioma medicine? >> let's bring back our panel. dana, juan, monica, chris, karl, britt, and chris. okay. monica. your perspective on this? >> what we're seeing unfold tonight is the most astonishing political story over our life times. donald trump, the ultimatead ve relative to m. clinton who had $t $2 billion is pulling the thing
off. we have never seen anything like this before the certainly in recent political history and maybe in the history of the republic. it shows the power of the people that the republican conservative base and they have said we have had it with all of y'all. >> the cheers you hear are the vote totals underneath. >> michigan, 17, there it goes. but basically, donald trump leading in michigan. leading in pennsylvania. and leading in new hampshire. >> this is sort of forecast. we talked about how unusual this is. but there is a smart man in 1962, wrote a book called "the
image, the history of american pseudopolitics". famous american historian. he said in 1962 after the kennedy nixon election that changing nature of the american media, he thought was corroding traditional sources of authority in our society and the weakening of the party structure meant in the future we were less likely to nominate for office people who have demonstrated state craft, had been a successful mayor, or senator, or congressman. and instead, we'd tend to begin to pick people who are famous because they were famous. and we've done that. we picked someone who never served in office, whether in military or public office and who used the media to disrupt the existing political structure and system. so it will be a while for the idea to come up, but it has in a splendidly amazing fashion. >> what we talked about the numbers all night, chris, and
have been talking about them for months. the polls and so on. one of the things we have watched this is l.a. times poll. >> yes. >> to see if they had donald trump ahead by 5 or 6 points for months. they polled the same group of people, kept going back to that same group over and over and over. did it validate that method of polling? >> no. he's up a point in the national popular. our final poll had her up three. and average of polls was two and a half, three points. the national polling had settled around her up by three points. 2, 3 points. and he is up by a point in the popular vote. joe is saying by the time we get done counting it's going to be close to a tie. the problem that we have as consumers of politics is that we don't see these numbers for what they are. these numbers are suggestions about a zone.
this is a shotgun pattern, not a rifle shot. so you say it's over here. but him winning by a point, we're talking about this the other day. him winning by one point, or her winning five points is about as equally likely. >> that is what we need to pay attention at all times to margins of error. >> yes. >> and these findings, we'll make a point of that i didn't notice, and this might mean revival of the white vote, they behaved like a minority vote. they stuck together. but white noncollege graduates, we expected trump to do great. he won them 67 to 28. white clenl graduates, trump wins by four. he won the white vote across the board. less and more educated alike came home to him. yes, they're down to 70% of the
electorate, but they're still, by far, the biggest number in our electorate. >> i would say remember, he's going to be a minority president. he's reminisce yennt of a minor president. his nationwide majority was less than 2000 votes. we're going to have a guy who better had a little humility tonight. he will enter office with less than 50% of the vote and may end up relative with her in the popular vote or behind her in the popular vote. >> if he does, remember this. this was said about the man for whom he worked. he didn't get 50% of the vote but got 100% of the presidential
vote. >> and i hope they will not say the things about him. >> you can bet he was able to bring the white vote together. i think he had a lot of sort of nationalist white appeal, brought out some extreme elements in our society. i worry about that as part of this. you say, well, tomorrow, he could express some degree of humility, some grace, some willingness to reach out to americans who are somewhat put off if not in total shock at what happened here tonight. but again, i just don't see any evidence of that in a man i have watched very closely over a course of this campaign. i just see him as someone who holds grudges, pursues grudges, says i'm going to lock up my opponent. and that scares me. >> we all ought to wait and see how he acts. don't prejudge him.
the country survived electrics before through bitterness, bitterness far beyond measure of what we have is seen in this election. it's incumbent upon us to give him a chance to succeed. >> remember herb block, the famous editorial cartoonist. when richard nixon was elected president, he savaged nixon, made him look sinister. he add a drawing in he was in a barber chair and herb gave him a clean shave. let's hope the country is planning to give donald trump. >> you hear about banning muslims. this is the kind of thing. intolerance. richard nixon prayed rough with people, accusations they're communists. let the guy have a fresh start. >> is the donald trump we saw in the campaign trail, who got a lot of coverage, and said a lot
of controversial things, is he the donald trump we're going to see as possibly president elect? and the 45th president of the united states? . >> i think probably not. it's one of the moments that is both sober that you will now be wins, commander-in-chief of the united states of america. you are the leader of the free world, and that to me is a sobering moment in that you realize the weight of that responsibility, that the buck stops there. i don't know all of the other things in terms of the tweeting and such like that. i don't know what they're going to do. technology has changed so much even from when i was in the white house press office, i didn't even have a twitter account until i left there. so the way by which they communicate is very interesting. i would say that when i was press secretary i would try to split the job in two. 50% of my time was spent advocating and defending the president of the united states of america and the other 50% was used to defend and advocate for
access of members of the press to the government. and this has been a campaign that has really focused on the media, the so-called bias of it, questioning media, calling them out, and i actually -- i hope that that is one thing that he decides to really think about, is that our country survives based on the free press. and the press is going to have to figure out a way to cover him fairly if he were to take office. >> but let's be honest. we don't have -- you asked a very good question, is the president trump, if he is elected, if he gets these final 16 electoral votes, is he going to be different than candidate trump? the only answer you can really give is who knows. i don't know that he necessarily knows, but let's face it, he's a 70-year-old billionaire who pulled off the most improbable victory in the history of our country. i'm not sure that humility and a feeling of, gee, i've got to
change the way i do business is necessarily going to be at the top of his agenda. he may think, you know what? i'm smarter than all of these guys. >> it worked out okay for me. >> you may be right, chris. you probably are, but i hope he doesn't think that way because the man who got elected is less the man who campaigned up to and through october 22nd and more the man who campaigned from october 23rd until today. october 22nd is when he goes to get gettysburg, makes a speech that's pretty good substantively but opens with 14 minutes ex coriating the women who had accused him of groping them. that was the last day that he conducted himself like that. since then he's been a reasonably contained, disciplined candidate. >> be cool, donald. >> you know who told him that? reince priebus. those words he said on that podium, i have it on good authority, were the last words reince priebus said to him before he left to go back to washington to go back for one
day, get a new set of clothes and go back. >> but you mentioned the women who accused him, who donald trump says he is going to sue. you know, we questioned this as a sitting president of the united states going to sue a bunch of women. presumably that threat dies if he wins the presidency. but something we have not discussed is the number of groups who are likely feeling real fear right now. >> exactly. >> in a way that perhaps they hated hillary clinton, they didn't want hillary clinton, but there wasn't -- they weren't afraid of her. i mean you've got muslims who may be feeling that way tonight. you've got women. you've got women who, you know, have seen him accused of groping women against their will, matters which have not been resolved in his favor or against him. they remain unresolved and people can make up their own minds about it. we have a history of comments that trump has made which are sexist in nature. they may be booing, but this is true. you've got immigrants who have been threatened by donald trump
with deportation. >> hispanics. >> hispanics. >> youcally them thieves and rapists? i'm glad you're sayic because everyone is saying give a new start, let it go, take it easy. i remind you for republicans what you heard from sean hannity tonight, go after paul ryan, he won't be speaker, this suggests to me it is about disruption of a political process. on that level i can appreciate disruption. but when it becomes so personal that you feel personally, wait a second, this is someone who has said, you know, most white people in the country are killed by back people, something that's an outright lie, not true. never taken it back. someone who says that i can grab women as i pleased, never takes it back, never apologizes. >> he apologized for the bus comment. >> he did apologize. >> monica. >> yeah, look, i think donald trump understands the import of this moment. i also think he understands the
importance of an inclusive message of change tonight and go forward. britt mentioned president nixon for whom i worked during his last years, and i remember having a conversation with president nixon about election day 1968. i asked him, after you voted, mr. president, how did you feel, what were you thinking? he said, you know what, monica, i wasn't thinking whether or not i was going to win that night. i was thinking as i drove around in my car watching people line up to vote how many of them did i reach. i think tonight donald trump is absorbing not just the job, which the job will change you, but the magnitude of the responsibility of that job. he has spoken repeatedly over the last several weeks in his closing argument about wanting to be a president for all of the people. i think what you're going to start to hear from him starting tonight and going forward is this inclusive message of change, bringing the country together. what is at stake, why it matters