tv The Journal Editorial Report FOX News August 18, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm PDT
we will see you the next "fox news sunday". >> welcome to the journal editorial report i am paul gigot, a turbulent week on wall and policy research firm. jason, welcome. how worried are you now about the u.s. economy, both rhino and looking across next year? >> it is pretty clear the global economy is slowing. i thing is clear the u.s. economy is .sslowing somewhat. i think the chances a recession in the u.s. are quite low and is largely because we are so consumer-oriented and we run a trade deficit. other countries like germany are much more dependent on
exports and so when you see a global economy, weakening, it is much harder on them. but i think it is fair to say the u.s. economy is slowing particularly manufacturer which is a big part of the volatility of the economy. >> we have good consumer numbers this week so but the manufacturer globally seems to be in a recession am i wrong about that? in manufacturing exports. >> manufacturing is a get big portion of profits for the s&p 500 and a big part of volatility of the economy. >> and big part of high wage jobs. >> exactly. it is hard to do these policies in a vacuum and clearly there is a cost to them and we can argue whether it is appropriate to suffer the cost but i think what worries me is that in some ways the president 's trade policies are sterilizing some of the positive effects of the supply side effects from the tax cuts last year. paul: we saw a big increase in
capitol investment in the wake of the tax reform and deregulation.now it is fallen, you are saying that it seems to have, the trade is a big culprit there? >> i believe so.because again, large businesses in particular about 40 percent of profits come from outside the united states. so if the bull boeconomy is slowing it is natural to see a slowdown in capitol spending 3%growth. capital spending growth in 2000 he was about 11 percent. it's about three percent this year.a slow down quite a bit and it is hard to see businesses making big capitol spending plans when they are such an on-again, off-again approach to trade with our largest trading partners. paul: and china the second largest economy in the world, had a symbiotic relationship for years with china they provide a lot of goods and america vies them they have the president trying to rebalance the relationship. did he underestimate the short
term cost economically from that trade policy shock? >> unfortunately, i think the answer is yes. and i think listen, businessmen and ceos are no more courageous than any other particularly public company ceos job number one is staying ceo even if you have a five-year accelerated appreciation of capitol spending, you can be spending a lot more time with your family if you make the wrong choice. and i think so much confidence o is based on how people are feeling at the time, if a large company has financial departments and discounted cash analysis, at the marginal it's really dependent on how you're feeling, if you do the extra capitol spending and is clear that the tax cut was good enough for growth for the first year but on trade on top of your following it up with trade was probably too much for the business community as a whole. >> china has not had a
recession, really since the start of the reform era back to the late 70s and early 90s even the great recession was a stimulus. what would the impact on the american economy be if china really does go for traction? >> frankly again, the trade deficit i don't think it would be that much. a lot would also depend on what the currency looks like and >> you can get a currency shift. >> yes and you can have the corporate profits and stock market. i don't know if it would have a particularly big impact on the economy as a whole. we've already lost a portion of those jobs anyway but it certainly would -- paul: here you have got china 's big consumer commodities. farm commodities, industrial commodities and oil. so if you get oil demand,
globally, you'd have low oil price it goes down, used to be it was great for america because we imported oil but now we have all this domestic production. could you see real downturn in that? >> i would argue be ready, i believe the three percent growth more or less they saw in 2008 in my opinion that was sustainable. without trade. >> i agree with you. we were on a path for two, three or four years. >> and now we're looking at this implies a level of sophistication that is inaccurate but were using 3.8 percent gdp growth next year. i think i would say whether it's agricultural commodities or other commodities, energy has impact we are already seeing growth, you're ready seen that more of two and half percent were little less.
>> you think it will go down? >> i think it will be a little less. at the current projection. unless things turn around. there are other things the administration can change policy but as of now. paul: and will there be a cut in september? >> and i think they will do that but they should. i think the fund unfortunately right now because what's happening in the global bond markets it has to. paul: jason, thank you for being here. >> thank you. paul: will become active consequences of an economic downturn. the prospects depend on a strong economy. and with a slowdown. rour panel will weigh in next. tk tk down the tube. ♪ here i go again on my own ♪ goin' down the only road i've ever known ♪ ♪ like a drifter i was-- ♪ born to walk alone! ...barb! you left me hangin' on the high harmony there.
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so in 2020. you have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k) 's down the tubes. everything is going to be down the tubes. whether you love me or hate me you have to vote for me. paul: was president trump at a campaign rally in manchester, new hampshire wthursday night tying his reelection prospects to the markets. amid growing signs of his trade war with china is taking a toll. white house announced tuesday the 10 percent tariffs on some chinese exports including cell phones, laptops and toys will be postponed until december 15. in a knowledge meant that they could hurt american consumers during the christmas shopping season. let's brain wall street journal columnist and deputy editor, dan heninger. ricall ms. kim strassel and assistant editorial page editor, james freeman. james, the president says you have aito elect him because his 401(k), it is so good but really it means a 401(k) has to stay good for the next 16 months.
he is really betting the house on continued prosperity. >> i think that really is the main argument for his reelection. especially if the democrats nominate a bernie sanders or elizabeth warren who is promising a kind of socialist revolution, fundamental restructuring of america. i think a lot of people say o despite his faults, i have to vote for him. paul: are you concerned though that the economy showing signs of wobbling? >> well, the, you have this difference right now where ceo's are nervous they are not investing, they're worried about trade. people who work for them or happy they are well-paid, while employed. and so, the consumer economy is strong, american workers are showing a very strong economic -- investment on the corporate side not so much.
paul: dan, a big fight in the administration on trade policy. this is critical of the administration on some of the trade policy, particularly helter-skelter nature of it. we get a lot of support from inside the administration, just to let our viewers know. a lot of people cheer us on on that, someone outside, folks that are out there say do not dare criticize the crpresident that but there is a fundamental economic policy to make here. >> you and i don't think the debate has really is over trade per se. we do need a trade deal with china. the debate really centers on the idea of tariffs and the tariffs he's imposing stone them against germany as well and he has tried to make them part of the deal with china. i think a lot of people inside the white house, this overhang has had a suppressive effect on the economy going forward. and crisis could begin to rise as a result of the tariffs
going into next year. it could damage the presidents prospects in state like iowa and north carolina. i would say as well, if it raises prices and you have this effect as rising gasoline prices, which always have a suppressive political effect. but the general feeling is that prices are rising because of the tariffs. the fear is that some of that political fallout could transfer to the president. paul: kim, do you think the president would rather run for election with a chinese trade deal were run against china and say, i am the china hawk and joe biden is a softy? >> look, i fundamentally think the president wants to win. but if you listen to him at his srallies in new hampshire, he does not want to come out of this unless he can claim some huge giant victory and so i think this is what you're seeing. instead that if he doesn't think he can get that he's going to run on the ladder and say this is actually good for
the economy, you know, we are actually making money with these tariffs and joe biden or any democrat would only make things worse. they would then be softies. you know, i think the real problem here as even this announcement from the white house acknowledged, what has been pain from tariffs in isolated industries like the farming sector, there is a risk that it does spread to consumers and that becomes a harder sell to make that tariffs are a good thing. paul: the pull the plug on some tariffs that would affect consumers because as the president says, their great wealth maybe not so great if you're getting an iphone. >> these things have a cost. i agree with kim.if he's looking for cosmetic win maybe he could claim as a victory, he would have settled long ago. he wants to reset the terms of trade with china. i think if this succeeds and he gets them to stop stealing so much intellectual property,
hats off to him. but we are seeing the cost because this economy, if you take away the trade fight, is ready to roar. look at productivity, the labor markets, near historic highs in the number of job openings. you see small business confidence very high. less exposed international trade. so you take away that issue i think he cruises the reelection with a roaring economy. paul: here is an omen, elizabeth warren basically saying the economy is in trouble, it is week we will see a downturn coming. she's putting herself in the position to run as a forecaster of the downturn. and if that happens, and i'm not smart enough to know if it will, but if it does, her prospects for winning nomination and election really go up. >> the abbott i'm not sure they go up enough. i think the president and the rally put his finger on something which is yes, normally if there's an economic downturn, voters say well, the republicans are doing so i can transfer my vote to the democrats. the new democratic party is different than the former one.
it is so far left and i think the president put his finger on that, they become almost unavoidable for a lot of people regardless of the state of the economy. paul: we will see. when we come back, a crisis in hong kong escalates and the president appears to change his tone tying up trade deals with china and beijing's response to the protest.our own -- in hong kong with the latest. let's be honest, you need insurance. but it's not really something you want to buy. it's not sexy... oh delicious.
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kong. please continue for a tenth straight week. protesters taking to the street and shutting down the airport there as chinese paramilitary forces gather near the hong kong border. they are signaling a trip shift in tone. in trade talks with beijing to the protests for the first time calling on chinese president to humanely settle the situation. >> jillian mentzer is in hong kong with the latest. hey jillian nice to see you again. >> are the protests in a continued and what do they want. what is a really want. >> just as i was headed over to the studio a big group gathered outside. en going on a pretty regular basis but peak on the weekends. >> they had five basic demands they want the extradition bill that kicks this whole thing off fully withdrawn.
they had declared dead. they could be new for. they also want democracy that something they consider important but to protect against the police abuse that we been seen. investigation into some of the abuses they want retraction of the designation that is variety. on top of that they want the chief executive carrie lamb to step step down. >> i don't think they will get democracy. that would be the kind of thing that china if he let them happen in hong kong then that lesson might seep into the mainland. do you see any chance of that happening? protesters are very determined and when i talk to them they point out that they feel like they had beijing in a situation where if it really cracks down on the protest it would hurt the economy. they would suffer real reputational harm.
these are pretty serious demands. how far is this can go on the protesters are gaining momentum but on the other side you have escalating the police violence in a government that has few incentives to back down. i think it's a pretty explosive situation. the chinese and the government of hong kong beholden to the chinese. they really did separate the business community from some of the protests and demands. they got tired of this interference with commerce and the normal functioning of the territory. >> is china trying to repeat that strategy should mark the mac i think we've seen that this week. firing a couple of employees who participated in support of the protest. and unseen than any other employees who do the same our
subject to disciplinary risk. that's a big deal in hong kong huge economic engineer it's gone for the big ice he better get it designed. that was mostly students and young people. we are seen a lot of broader support across the community. it's pretty incredible all of the different sectors that are participating in this. i think it's can be tougher. >> café pacific obviously has a lot in china. did he resign under pressure? >> that was a clear message that if you allow your protesters and employees to go into the streets you can see real negative consequences. >> keep in mind this is the company that has significant ownership in china if anybody had been insulated from it and thought that it might keep
them safe from pressure that has not been the case. i think a lot of businesses are feeling --dash mike feeling vulnerable. they support the hong kong government and the police with them and the actual people of hong kong. the students and the young people. >> how do you think donald trump has handled the situation. it didn't start out well he said it was something for them to settle between themselves. as now got much better as they understand the stakes are very high in hong kong and it does relate to the trade deal. normally i think hong kong should be understood as kind of stand in a prototype for problems. throughout china throughout the year. they spent $300 billion on domestic security. he does not want to liberalize
politically. that is what we are seeing in hong kong. if they go in with any site of the police force. does it end prospects for the u.s. a china trade deal? >> i think there would be damage what do hong kong folks think about how they have behaved here. they are very happy to see him finally taking us a stand up assigned to them. they would like more international support and they would bring up the u.s. treats hong kong differently because it does have a rule of law. it is a place that is much more free. they keep pointing to that.
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♪ ♪ >> after a series of verbal gaffes on the campaign trail questions are growing in the media and t in democratic circls about whether joe biden maybe too old tobo be the 2020 nomine, report in the hill this week claims that even the former vice president allies have been floating the idea of scaling back his daily campaign schedule in an effort to reduce the verbal flubs that have made headlines in recent weeks. biden's age has been seen by some as liability ever since he launched his campaign earlier this year. but the 76-year-old still maintains a sizable if shrinking lead in the real clear politics average beating closest competitor by more than a dozen points. we are back with dan henninger, kim strassel and kyle peterson, so kim, how big a liability is age for joe biden? >> well, in some regards, paul, you look at biden and when he
makes these gaffes, we are hearing that, it doesn't surprise you because joe biden's entire career is fullen of simir gaffes like that. i think what has caused alarm and why we are having debate, some of the comments have just suggested, they're little bit more concerning like when he recalling to mind suggesting that margaret thatcher is still the prime minister of england. those suggests almost short-term memory or something, that's why people are brig this up. i think the question is does biden do something forceful to respond to this and turn it back the way that say reagan did in 1984 debate, otherwise it will continue to dog him. paul: function of age per se, kyle, rathert than performance, one of the reasons it's come up because first debate performance was so shaky, it looked like he
wasn't on it, he has made verbal gaffes saying, for example, he met with parkland, florida kids, survivors from the school shooting when he was vice president, that didn't happen until after he was vice president. >> right, a long campaign, he will have to show he has the stuff to go t the distance, a humor can help, a few weeks ago he suggested jokingly that he would challenge president trump to a push-up contest that kind of line may work. i think he has to deal with the issue, i mean, one thing he could say warren buffet is 88-year-old, are you selling your berkshire hathaway stock, no?[l [laughter] >> but, yeah, i think has tooo deal with this somehow otherwise it'll dog d him. >> dan, i want ask him more philosophical question about age and presidency, the oldest leader, modern western leader with conrad, chancellor of
germany in post war, served 14 years until 87, great leader of germany, okay, but we haven't had that old leader here in the united states and there's a question you and i both know people in 80's and 90's, some are sharp as a tack and really on it, should we be debating somebody who will serve in late 70's or early 80's can i do the job? >> i think it's a legitimate issue for voters to think about, look, paul, if that election were this november, so what, he can run. conrad being 90 year's old did not have to run for campaign that ran for 15 months day after day in the country the size of the united states, some of s biden's allies saying we should slow down schedule and not do things to push him late in the afternoon and so forth.
there's a sense, paul, presidential campaigning in the united states has become a young person's game, 76, 77 year's old is old, you just don't have the energy anymore and if it begins to show going into late this year that people like biden or even bernie sanders are running out of gas, i think democratic voters are going to start migrate over to some of the other candidates. paul: kim, donald trump 73 year's old, he'll be 74 next june, so he'd be 74 upon being sworn in a second time, he clearly wants to make this an issue of this calling biden sleepy joe, and trump in his favor he does have boundless energy or seems to. is he going to make that a a contrast with biden? >> well, of course, he is,>> you know, the age difference between him and biden might not be huge, you can believe he will point it out as much as he possibly can,
do i think it's potential something for democrats to think about as well too, because donald trump is all about contrast and as you said, one thing that absolutely defines this president is the amount of energy he has. heist a very vigorous person and he will not be able to wait, if you get a biden or bernie sanders as nominee to make that distinction and you hear him say sleepy joe, joe is not operating on a full deck, you can bet that he will double down on that if either of the men are the nominee. paul: kyle, if you were a competing democrat, younger democrat, elizabeth warren is 70, would you explicitly begin to call this out or would you let the media do it? >> i think you to do politely but if you're in moderate lane in lower tier, i think that will have to be something they will go start going after, one of the reasons that it hasn't hurt biden, if you're a moderate democrat, a lot of those people,
you have bonafide socialist, people talking taking away private health insurance, chicken-egg problem where lower-tier candidates can't rise because biden is sucking up all the votes. >> elizabeth warren, bernie sanders and t kamala harris. thank you, shifting stories for officials in moscow following deadlyos explosion at remote military base in russia, general jack keane on what we know about the mysterious blast and the changing nature of the global nuclear arm's race. let your dna take you on the adventure of a lifetime.
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explanations for the blast which killed at least 7 people and caused widespread fears of radiation leakdi analysts beliee the russians were testing a nuclear powered cruise missile touted by president vladimir putin who says can not be stopped by american defenses, retired four star general jack keane is the fox news senior strategic analyst, so general, welcome, what do you make of whthis? what do we know first about the russian explosion? >> well, seems to be a pattern that the russians have had for a number of years, paul, because their safety record among industrialized states dealing with nuclear weapons or weapons in general is actually far below theel norm that these countries have and this is evidence that they lost nuclear submarine in 2000 to undersiege explosion, they've had 6 fires on nuclear submarines and last month in july another fire where 14
sailors were killed and 3 in the last 90 days three plans have had explosions killing people. what the russians do much out of the playss book of the soviets,s soon as one of these things happen particularly something that involves potentially radiation exposure, they deny it's a serious event, they claim that are on control of it, minimize as much as they possibly can. that's the plan out here. paul: we have satellite abilities to look at the things and radiation detection abilities too, whatt does the american government know and the pentagon know aboutta what this- what causes explosion? >> i don't think we know what caused it but we do know that they are exploring technology that the united states largely abandoned becausete they didn't think it was achievable and that is to put a small nuclear reactor on a cruise missile which would then give it
unlimited range not inhibited obviously by fuel source and also make it a quite impenetrable. our scientists and engineers didn't think it was achievable. they had major incident last summer concerning this -- this experimentation and now another incident as well. that's the most likely thing that our people think is happening. >> so just to understand, just so viewers can get an idea what means, you put reactor of power to cruise missile which would be able to take off presumably maybe even russia proper and travel to the united states or hawaii or guam or wherever without having to be much nearer range and that would put it out of -- that means that we cannot defend that with our
missile intercepters in alaska, for example. >> russians have advanced in nuclear technology, they have the capability to do that, we suspect this is achievable but even putin, he showed that as part of state of the union last year, he showed a video caricature of this where it did take off fromid russia as you indicated, went all the way far to south america and then came up and penetrated into florida, wteresting enough where president trump has his second home, just to demonstrate diverse of it and that was video caricature of it, that's their intent, it would be formidable if they are able to achieve it, but that's not going to be achievable. paul: difficult to get. are we entering here a new era of weapons development beyond cold war or intercontinental ballistic missiles that will make the united states potentially vulnerable to new
throats even those from afar and even the u.s. the homeland? >> yes, i think what's actually happening isye the nuclear controls that we've had in place that began in the -gagan-gorbachev era are being removed most notable 1987i -- i inf and the united states pulled out of it, china is not in that deal whatsoever and they have developed the tactual nuclear weapons, something that we all got rid of in the past, so there's going to be a growth in that area, now, the only thing the united states u can do to -- to fort this is what we have done in cold war that means we have to develop in-kind capability ourselves which obviously we can do to make certain that there's a deterrence there, also the russians and chinese have both upgraded their strategic nuclear
weapons capability, the united states is i in the process of beginning funding for that, so we will generally see an upgrade in tactical nuclear weapons, something we have done away with although china has them and also across the globe increase among the three major powers, strategic nuclear weapons. >> just briefly, general, one of the things, that congress -- congress and administration want to do conventionally armed missile that we can say put on guam to be able to strike in north korea, not nuclear, congress in the house has passed a bar on even developing that, that strikes me as a mistake, briefly. >> no, i think we should develop that weapon system because we need -- we need to provide capable deterrent of china's demilitarization of the western pacific, right now they hold us at baby -- bay by long range missiles, we have to get capability in there to provide
deterrence, we are not looking for a conflict but we want to take away any thought about a potential conflict and pause cause on them. paul: appreciate you being here, still ahead, mitch mcconnell's twitter jailbreak, the senate majority leader back in business following twitter - suspension t are big-tech companies inviting government regulation if they can't police their own anticonservative bias? track of . and i don't add up the years. but what i do count on... is boost® delicious boost® high protein nutritional drink has 20 grams of protein, along with 26 essential vitamins and minerals. boost® high protein. be up for life. 'cause crabfest is on geat red lobster.ns with nine craveable crab creations. like our new crab imperial. now just $15.99. or crack into a pound of wild-caught snow crab. now only $19.99. grab your crab crew. crabfest ends september 1st.
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later -- majority leader's home. so alicia, were they justified in shutting the account down? >> i think there are two separate issues, whether they have the right to shut the account down which i think they should and whether they should have. on the latter, i think it's very dubious and the problem with twitter and a lot of the problems with social tech platforms they haven't applied consistent policy which has lead to allegations that they are biased against conservatives, this was the case in point. whae lesson of that, if you shout enough and put enough political pressure on twitter which there was a lot of, they will give way? >> i think that's right in most cases but also pushback from the left, i mean, you saw that with alex jones and people shouted and ordered them to take down
his post and so there's going to be -- they are under series political and public pressure and how does it navigate that, i don't know. >> do you think that consistency here has to be the guide for them, they have to apply the same standard to the left than they do the right? >> i think that they do, the problem is that they don't have -- they don't have rules or policy guidelines unlike, for instance, they imply and many people are upset, serena williams gets fined for unsportsman like conduct and there's a code of conduct and right now twitter doesn't have one. paul: what do you make of that point? >> con sis eveningy is impossible standard, there are 500 hours of the up loaded to youtube and twitter gets 500 million tweets a day, the idea that you could apply some sort of rules consistently across that massive of a fire
hose, i think it's impossible. one example a group of lgbtq users who sued this week saying similar to conservative claims that their videos are being restricted or marked as mature, even when the consent is not mature and does anybody think that google and youtube have some secret antilgbt bias into their systems, no. paul: what do we do here then, dan, on the broader policy? ted cruz senator from texas are saying we need to have the government get in here and certify that bill that you are unbiased? >> well, i pretty much agree with kyle, it's an impossible goal but i understand the instinct, i have sympathy on both sides here, look, paul, when the platforms began nobody predicted that this level, this ocean of political bile would result from it and are very much
out of control, the difference is that the thumb on the scale here left-wing bias are the big tech workforce, they clearly are biased against conservatives which result in mitch mcconnell's website being pulled down, the responsibility falls on the leadership of the companies to make clear to the people working for them that people like mitch mcconnell do not pose a threat in any way, and that you have to have something looking like balance otherwise congress is going to step in. paul: do you they that they should step? >> no, anything they do or anything that they floated here is probably likely to be ruled unconstitutional. >> on free speech. >> free speech grounds. we had case which supreme court ruled that even platforms that receive government funding they still can police their own platforms and they were very clear on this point that they do not have to abide by even the
first amendment rights, they can do whatever they want. paul: briefly, federal trade commission for speech? >> yeah, i think that's a bad idea. sets up impossible standards except government impose standards, my question is if you think twitter is biased against you why are you on twitter? [laughter] >> all right, we have to take one more break, when we come back hits and misses of the back hits and misses of the hey, who are you? oh, hey jeff, i'm a car thief... what?!
i'm here to steal your car because, well, that's my job. what? what?? what?! (laughing) what?? what?! what?! [crash] what?! haha, it happens. and if you've got cut-rate car insurance, paying for this could feel like getting robbed twice. so get allstate... and be better protected from mayhem... like me. ♪
>> time now for hits and misses of the week. kim, start us off. >> house judiciary chairman jerry nadler wants the nation to think every interaction for the house has what is obstruction and grounds for impeachment.this is a hit to a federal judge howell firm in the country that dealing with complex issues, she denied mr. natalie's request to combine two of the losses against the
administration saying it's a question of you whether you have the right to subpoena administration official, it is different from whether or not you get the right to locate grand jury information. these are the kind of sensible points we need to see more judges making. >> all right, kyle? >> a great piece of americana. come down see bernie sanders talking about socialism. but for the 1200 pound boar, statue big bird made entirely out of -- my favorite for the competition to bake the ugliest cake. >> he knows from experience, folks! alisha. >> is a miss to democrats for years ignored lead poisoning in the water. they are finally shamed into delivering bottled water. what do you know? the bottled water was expired. and they are now limited trump administration for providing
with more money. >> all right, james? >> this is a mr. presidential candidate elizabeth warren. this is the most controversial conversation a contract but lately he's playing better he's hitting really well and this week forbes magazine reported that miss warren and her husband amassed a fortune of $12 million or more working at a tax exempt, largely tax-exempt nonprofit so-called institution called harvard university. she talks about college affordability. they charge $99,000 a year to students. >> all right, thank you all. that is it for this week's show. thank you to my panel and then all of you watching. i am paul gigot, we hope to see you here next week. eric: words from the president in just a few moments we do expect that the president who will be heading to morristown airport in new jersey will be
boarding air force one for flight back to washington, d.c., we expect president trump to speak when he arrives there, we will bring that to you live, of course, this as top administration officials have been appearing before the sunday public affairs programs to try and calm fears of some of a possible pending recession. hello, everyone, welcome to brand new hour of america's news headquarters, i'm we we -- eric. arthel:ened i'm arthel neville, worries over the