tv KCCI 8 News Close Up Me-TV January 31, 2016 10:30am-11:00am CST
during the next half hour, we leaders about our state's pivotal role in the process and tell you what you need to know before heading to your caucus site tomorrow night, to do your part. kcci 8 news close up starts right now. >> this is iowa's news leader, this is kcci "close up". stacey: it's hard to believe the steve: while it's been like a jet-powered political roller-coaster the past month, we know some of you are just now starting to think about tomorrow night. stacey: what to do? where to go? the caucus is not like your regular election. both of the parties and all of the campaigns are in overdrive, now hoping for record-level participation on february 1. >> we are reaching out to as many people as we can, letting them know caucuses are february 1, and everyone should come out. in order to do that, you'll need to know where you're going. >> and both parties have made
just know your precint before you check on iowagop.org. >> and if you don't know your precint, we'll find out. >> and you can simply type your address into this box at iowademocrats.org for the same result. >> you can print out directions, have it saved to your calendar. it's just a really helpful little tool that lets people know, hey, this is exactly where i go and this is how i do it. >> even if your polling place is the same each and every election year, you should still double check. your caucus location may be different. and both parties stress, you must be present or in line by 7:00 p.m. or the caucus may move on without you. >> come prepared, think about what you're going to do, and come early exclamation, , exclamation, exclamation. stacey: something else you need to know, every caucus in the state begins right at at 7:00 p.m. so be on time. we cannot reiterate enough.
you can caucus for any candidate you wish, but you must be registered as a republican or a democrat. that means, if you have to change your registration at your at least 6:30 to fill out a voter registration form. stacey: finally, you can be 17 and still caucus. but you must be 18-years-old by election day, november 8, 20-16. 16. steve: new iowa poll numbers in tonight from the des moines register. on the democratic side, hillary clinton is on top. she has 45% of likely voters. bernie sanders is in second by just 3-points at 42%. and martin o'malley is still in a distant third, with just 3%. stacey: and donald trump is leading on the republican side here in iowa. he has 28% of likely voters. ted cruz is in second with 23%. and marco rubio is in third with 15%. drake political professor and kcci's political analyst dennis goldford joins us now. so what do you make of the latest poll numbers?
close and since we don't know about final turnouts, we have the potential for surprises. i have been asked what surprises we expect, but by definition those would not be surprises. everything is still very close. steve: according to donald trump on the republican side, bernie sanders on the democratic side, people need to get there for them to be viable. dennis: yes, new people to the caucus process this time, they'll probably support donald trump. and on the sanders side, trying to capture new voters the way that barack obama did. stacey: can we cut about donald trump and his support? he did not attend the latest debate and it does not appear to have hurt him. dennis: he seems to rewrite the rules.
nomination, he would upset about the process. so, it is fascinating to watch. broadcast media. steve: on the democratic side, heller clinton -- hillary clinton and bernie sanders, it is passion. dennis: if what everybody is telling us about tuesday is true, the snow, if the caucus where tuesday we would get a different caucus man on monday. -- van on monday. steve: coming
up, andy mcguire will join us to talk about strategy, turnout and a whole lot more.
stacey: welcome back. writing down the candidate they support, the democratic system is more involved. put simply tomorrow night will , be a game of
three corners. steve: iowa democratic party chair doctor andi mcguire joins us now. and when it comes to caucusing you guys are a lot more hands on then republicans. please walk us through the process. dr. mcguire: it is democracy in action. you will have the different candidates talk about how they stand for things into physically
and it is a wonderful thing to see democracy, you go of your friends and neighbors and the people that agree with you. and then we have a viability standard. that is 15%, so if a corner does not have 15% of a group, that is not viable. then they can go to the other candidate. it really is a wonderful time to talk about what your vision is for the country and really decide who is the best person to lead us. stacey: we hear a lot about the ground game. that is so important, tell us why. dr. mcguire: you have to get your people to show up at a certain place, at a certain time. with all of the different moving parts, that is not easy to do. we have three campaigns that have done that well. i think we will have a great turnout on caucus night because
but have been telling people -- and they have been telling people where to go. they have been well organized. this is all through the state. this is everywhere. this is what you need to do, get people out and i think that all three campaigns will do that. steve: with 15% viability, do you expect this to go quickly or on? dr. mcguire: it will be very competitive. there will be passion. that is one of the great things about the democratic caucus, we have a great conversation. i think that it will be very spirited. i will not predict when we will be done on monday night. stacey: i was curious about the newest poll with clinton at 45% and sanders at 43%, are you surprised it is this close? dr. mcguire: this is really great for us in this party, when
there. november. exercise. stacey: i heard some say that they wanted a tough primary to strengthen a candidate, but at what point does this become too drawn out, when does it hurt? dr. mcguire: i feel like our candidates have talked about issues, so this has been good content for honing in on our message. i do not think it is hurting us at all, it is helping. stacey: it is still only january. what if this goes on through march and beyond? dr. mcguire: i hope that we continue to talk about issues, that is something we have done well in the party. i hope that we do not get into other issues, but talk about college affordability, education, it is something that matters to all families. steve: the campaign for sanders has agreed to a debate in
so what can you say about that? dr. mcguire: there is a lot of ways to get your message out. they come to iowa and make this a priority and talk with people. we also have forums. there are a lot of ways, but the more we can do that, the better it will be in november. stacey: what about how many caucus-goers could change their minds? what does that say about the message that voters are not hearing from candidates or that they are hearing and not liking? dr. mcguire: this is hard to predict. there is always people who are undecided when they walk in the door. it is one of those iowa things and i hope they watch over the next couple of days, talk to friends and neighbors. steve: you have talked about the passion involved, especially with the clinton and sanders campaign.
not supposed to talk about religion and politics, but now we're going to get a lot of democrats in the room that are going to get passionate. we never get to go. dr. mcguire: i had one gentleman at my caucus who had trouble talking to me for a couple of weeks at the grocery, because i was passionate about one candidate and he was passionate about another, so yes, it is very passionate. this is the next, hopefully, leader of our country, so it should be passionate. is the one time you can talk about politics. steve: is that the beauty of it? dr. mcguire: it is. and people change their minds. some people think they are decided and then somebody will say something and that really trips them and they go to another one. some people from different groups go who are viable.
stacey: how much caffeine will you have on board? this could be a long night. dr. mcguire: we have been putting this together for a year, so the staff is wonderful. we have volunteers all over the state. that is the most gratifying thing come all this -- thing, all of these voters come out and i'm just looking forward to it. steve: thank you. coming up, the chair of the iowa republican party joins us to talk about how the high number of candidates could bring big surprises on monday. we will be right back. let us be lovers, we'll marry our fortunes together [ cheering ]
steve: it is as simple as writing your name on a piece of paper and slipping it in a box. welcome back. republicans have several candidates to choose from tomorrow night and polls show it could be a tight one. stacey: joining us to talk about that and more is iowa gop chair, jeff kaufmann. thank you for coming. jeff: it is a pleasure. stacey: with so many candidates getting out the vote is , important for every campaign. there's so much attention this year do you see a big turnout , for republicans this
year? jeff: i do. i think that are mark is 100,000. i think it is a reasonable number.
i feel confident with the prediction that we will be beyond 120,000. you can feel it. stacey: there are so many candidates, so their ground game is important as well. jeff: right. 11 of them are running aggressive campaigns, that will all drive
attendance. steve: we touched on it coming in, but the process on the republican side is different. please walk us through. jeff: we have the conversation, followed by the votes, but we do not have the viability. so if it is your first time, don't let that intimidate you. there will be no surprises in terms of knowing something before hand. expect campaigns will ask people to come in and make the presentation. sometimes it is spontaneous. sometimes people just jump up and say they will talk.
take and the votes occurs. the counting of the vote will happen in the room. if not, it will be in an adjoining room and he will know results before the caucus is over. steve: you did have problems in 2012, how can you make sure that when
i have again? jeff: the democrats and republicans joined in a partnership with microsoft, so we have an app that is cutting-edge. we are really proud of it. and i think that everyone else will be proud. there are internal checks to help correct mistakes, catch mistakes. we have had over 300 trainings in every corner of the state so that this volunteer army, unlike the primary that citizens pay for, this is all volunteer and it is paid for by the parties.
and here is the good news, instead of this, if it is very close, dragging out over a week or two weeks, 48 hours we will bring in the paper trail and we will verify and at the end of the two days there will be an official tally to let the country know. stacey: i was -- every year, i would that take keith that they do not -- heat that they do not deserve the first in the nation vote, they do not represent america. how do we maintain the first in the nation status? jeff: the one thing i try to tell the rest of the country, literally i tell delegates, iowa was never supposed to predict the winner. this is a qualifying round.
an even playing field, we have a spot where we have median markets and a person without $100 million, without the super pack, can come here and campaign. ask rick santorum, jimmy carter, the passion about iowa, if i continue to look at students and to say that you can be president some day, the process must start in a place like iowa where anybody can throw their hat in the ring. it cannot start in california or new york. some years it is republican, some years it is democrat, iowa. so listeners will make or break the status, showing up and present invention -- and participation is my biggest argument.
big thing be? jeff: cleveland. that will be the convention. right now, this is the nonpartisan part of my job. we stand together on this first step. stacey: iowa is known for evangelical voters showing up, which means establishment candidates don't generally do well. it also contributes to the criticism here. jeff: it does, but back to 2012, essentially we had a tie. it was 34 votes. when you look at who was first and second in 2012, we had a christian evangelical who campaigned the old-fashioned way and we had mitt romney. i think in 2012, we showed how diverse we are. christian evangelicals are an important part of the party, but if you look at all of the party,
i will say that evangelicals show up in a high degree and on monday night that will be part of the calculation. steve: thank you. still to come, it is the eternal question. does iowa deserve it's first in the nation status? we'll talk about that with drake political science professor, and dennis goldford, when kcci 8
areas that i've been particularly interested in is the area of children. all of us have a responsibility, to ourselves, to our children, to each other. we intend to be sure that everybody in this room and every child in this state is somebody. no matter where they're born, no matter to whom they are born. our children's future is shaped both by the values of their parents and the policies of their nation. it's time to protect the next generation, fill the lives of our children
open up the doors so that every child has a chance to live up to his or her god-given potential. i've spent my life fighting for children, families and our country, and i'm not stopping now. (crowd cheers) i'm hillary clinton, and i have always approved this message. professor dennis goldford is stacey: welcome back. drake political professor dennis goldford is back on the perch for some final thoughts before the caucus.
steve: we were talking about the first in the nation status. dennis: the fact that we are first in the nation is a
important, we are important because we are first. in any nomination process, this is a serial process. whoever is first will be important just by being first. that is why both
parties fight very hard to hold on to that first position. steve: what makes this process special in your mind? dennis: we have polls and polls, but this is the first time that we get some semi official indication of the real thoughts and feelings of people who are politically involved, the activists who are knowledgeable and of had a chance to talk to candidates. what their thoughts and feelings are about the nominees. so it really is real people saying, here is what we think.
we are and neck on both sides. dennis: as good as they are, and there is an art to it, and seltzer is very good. but there is logic to it. this is not haphazard. a bit polls -- but i like to say that polls are yesterday's news. an example of the issue is, in 1980 polls stopped on a friday and everybody knew and figure that governor reagan would be president carter, but they thought it was close. in fact, it was not close on tuesday, but the poll was from friday and over the weekend all sorts of undecided people fell off on reagan's side
of the fence. additionally, if people change registration on caucus day or night and actually turn out to vote, the polls can try to pick
stacey: can you talk about the undecided? the latest poll showed that 30% of caucus-goers were undecided. 39% were likely republican caucus goers, undecided. does that surprise you? dennis: i think on the republican side, again they have a buffet to choose from. which one do you want? they have various messages, there are different elements of the party. of course, they want to win the election, so they are trying to decide there because of the huge range. on the democratic side, in terms of undecided, the clinton campaign in 2008 really had no history here and while most of the cats think they can support hillary clinton in the fall, she in iowa.
stacey: i have heard some democratic caucus-goers say that they are supporting bernie sanders because they are frustrated with the obama administration. dennis: and as we listen to debate, we keep thinking, who are you running against? because they keep talking to -- talk about president obama. steve: that leads us to what would be our final question, but i won't ask you because i know it you will say. we will wait and see for tomorrow night. we will all be here. we are eager to see what will happen. dennis: i predict we will have an interesting night. steve: that is right. so tune in. if you want to see this close up again, we have posted it online at our website, www.kcci.com.
national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [kcci captioning is brought to you by the iowa clinic.] paying for medicine and paying rent... can't wait. the single mom who desperately needs a raise... can't wait. the student with a mountain of debt can't wait. we can make real progress, right now. i'm caucusing... i'm caucusing... i'm caucusing for hillary clinton.