tv U.S. Farm Report ABC November 7, 2015 5:00am-6:00am CST
usda's october number. informa thinks we'll also see a larger soybean number. allendale's yield estimates aren't as aggressive. allendale thinks the u-s corn yield is 168 point 3. and soybeans 47 point 3. severe drought in china is depleting any hopes of a record crop this year. and pork producers in the country were banking on ample corn supplies to feed the growing popularity in the white meat. here's a map of china's main growing region. corn production was predicted to see an all-time high as growers bumped up acres this year. instead, bloomberg reports production will fall nearly 6 percent, which is the biggest drop in 15 years. u-s beef exports continue to see pressure, while pork exports are on the way up. u-s meat export federation says the september export numbers show promise for pork, with export volume up 6 percent from a year ago. shipments to canada were the largest we've seen all year, and south korea increased the amount
of pork purchased by 34 percent. trade groups got their first look at details of the trans pacific partnership trade deal, and the national pork producers council likes what they see. the white house released the final agreement, showing support for pork exports, with one iowa state economist calling it the most important commercial opportunity ever for u-s pork producers. nppc says past trade deals have increased pork exports by more than 15 hundred percent in value. t-p-p involves 12 pacfic rim countires, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the global g-d-p. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. mike, the gift you call an indian summer sadly came to a close for many of us this week with some viewers even seeing snow. well that's right, tyne, but it sure was nice while it lasted, but you can see on the drought monitor we have gotten rid of all the red areas in the southern plains, still some dryness in spots and i know that's hard to believe. this is a long term drought monitor that
drought starting to show up from southern michigan into the missouri and central mississippi valleys, something that we have to watch anyway. you can see the very dry conditions do continue out west, there is some hope as we head into winter though for some of those changes to be occurring with this bean and el nino winter. now let's go day by day, on monday we are going to start off with a storm system in the southeast more than likely, we will have to watch the gulf coast area there is always potential for a little bit of development early this week, but right now we are thinking mainly in the southeast with some showers maybe thunderstorms there, much colder air diving into the northern and western portion of the rockies and you can see there will be a higher amount of snow in the higher elevations and some decent rains even in some of the lower elevations, so good news there. the dry to start the week for most of the plains in the northeast and the great lakes, by wednesday that storm system coming east into the middle of the country, the one in the southeast moving off new england, so it will be wide spread rains from the great lakes back across the central and southern plain states, even
good accumulating snows in the eastern portions of the rockies, by friday that storm system moving through the great lakes with rains there, showers down into the southeast and the next system bringing some rain and mountain snows out to the northwestern portions of the country, back in our next half hour with a longer range outlook. thanks, mike. when we come back, don roose and angie setzer get us prepared for u-s-d-a's report next week. we'll be back after the break.
year ago you were sitting more like 75%. we're almost at par on the dollar. again, the jobs rate was positive this week. the dollar on friday sharply higher. what it really sends is a head wind for our export pace, which is already slow, and we're having a hard time competing, so if the dollar stays strong it's just going to continue to be something that we're going to have to deal with, with probably hard to move up in prices. >> yeah, angie, let's talk about these exports. i mean, we've been pretty bearish on the export and the demand, but what's your view? is there some promise there? >> well, there's a little bit of promise, i think, especially in the soybean realm because you^ve the ability to see shipments. shipments are actually running ahead of a year ago, which not a lot of people talk about. the thing i see in soybeans with the decrease in sales, which they are down considerably versus last year, but they're close in what we need to see in the fivyear average range. the shipment side of things, and i always joke
know, our foreign buyers know that we have a lot. they know that there's a potential there for even more to be coming out of south america. they're constantly hearing why things need to get cheaper, so why would they be in a big hurry to come in and book a bunch when they know it could come on sale next week? i mean that's basically where we're at is you don't run to the store to purchase a bunch of goods that you know could get cheaper a week from now. now, with corn and wheat, yeah, we're really seeing a struggle there. we've got a huge amount of global supplies available in wheat especially, so we're really not getting any interest on that side of things, and on corn we continue to run up against the black sea region and south america and right now we're just not competitive and, of course the higher dollar's not making it any easier for us. so luckily with corn it's only 13% of the whole demand pie, but the big problem is twice a week you get an updated number telling us we're just really not doing
market over the head. >> angie's right. we're not running out of grain, at the same time corn exports down. but this week we heard about china and that severe drought, just seeing their corn production drop dramatically. at the same time they need the feed. so do you think that opens up the door for u.s. corn exports any time soon? >> well, you know, it always can. that's the optimistic side, but i think china really has sent a signal that they're not interested in importing. they've slowed down the ddg imports, the sorghum imports. now you have to have permits to import grain where before it was more of an open situation. the chinese, it's very hard to get a real number as far as what their production really is, but my guess is actions speak louder than words and really they're sending a signal that they're not going to be a strong importer here any time soon, but that can change pretty fast. watch the weather, it's always something that we have to look at, but that's more like next spring. >> but why aren't they buying from us? do they just have enough corn that they
don't need our grain right now or why? >> i think the big issue is they're trying to be more efficient. they've had a lot of spoilage with their grain. they've been the largest warehouser of grain in the world, and i think what they really look at is they're joining the rest of the world and more of an itime purchaser and in them to store the world supply grain by themselves. i think that's really what it is. it's more of a world that everybody knows everybody a little bit better than we did years ago, so they're more getting up to more modern grain trading situation. >> angie, do you agree with that? >> yeah, you've got to love china too. if their house is on fire they'll tell you they like it hot, so china's really good at telling you they're fine until they're not. so it is. their actions speak louder than words. they did come out here a couple weeks ago and say they're going to start incorporating some more corn going to start producing their own distillers. so there is some things on that side. that
holding onto 150 million metric ton, which is the number we're hearing, whether it's good, bad, it's probably pretty ugly, but they are holding it, and the last thing they're going to do is admit that that whole stockpiling scheme you know, they're going to slowly admit that it hasn't worked. they're not going to come out on tuesday and say that it was a disaster. >> don, now that we are winding down harvest, what steals the headlines now? what moves the market moving forward the next few months? >> well, i think the thing we'll watch is the supply's behind us. we're going to have a large crop, and i think the next thing we watch is what's the demand? and the demand so far is pretty slow. china's even starting to slow down the demand on soybeans the last two weeks, so i think the focus now is going to switch to south america weather, and that's going to be the real key, and if south america doesn't have a problem, the producer in many the u.s. has been a very tight holder, it^s given us artificial support, but that could be a big negative when we hit february and march, so watch south america weather. it^s coming on the radar very fast.
next crop production report, so we're going to get their thoughts on yield coming up as well as we need to talk about this hog market. it's been very depressed. why? we'll get that answer when we come back on u.s. farm report. this is machinery pete inviting you to check out my new website, machinerypete.com, offering farmers tens of thousands of used equipment listings to search. let machinery pete help you find and value your next piece of used equipment. [ break
report. we've heard about these amazing soybean yields out there. so, angie, what are your thoughts? do we see usda raise yield, and if so is the market kind of expecting this? >> as a farmer you want to go into a usda report with everyone expecting it to be extraordinarily bearish. so we've got that going for us, just in the sense like last month we went in with everyone expecting it to be bullish. the
bearish, nothing major, but we saw a big selloff as a result. when you go into a report expecting some extreme bearishness, you know, the numbers are really going to have to bearish to kind of see the next leg down, in my opinion. i do expect us to see a bump up in soybean yields, but at the same time there is some talk that you're going to see exports cut, et cetera, et cetera. i'm not really expecting the usda to make a big adjustment in demand just yet because it's early. corn wise production wise i think it will probably come in somewhat unchanged. exports are probably going to be cut, so you could see a little bit of an increase in overall carryout, but i do anticipate we could see some offset through ethanol usage or feed usage to help kind of cut that whole harsh export setback. >> don, what should a farmer's marketing plan be going into next week? >> well, and that's a good question because i
pretty dramatically, and it's sending a signal to try and market your grain sooner rather than later. so make sure you take advantage of some of those merchandising opportunities. if you want rownership go to work and change your ownership through futures or options. downside potential doesn't look like it's huge right now because of the artificial tightness with the producer holding. the upside's probably limited. so it's more in the basis than spreads. take advantage of that. and seasonally this is a time frame where we usually do try to stay firm. we can get into the end of the year. we can get weather problems in south america yet, so the crop is kind of tucked away now, so it's trying to draw away from the producer. >> but do you think prices pretty much hover around these levels for the next few months? >> you know, we've been in this range since the middle of august. >> right. >> and it doesn't look like there's anything to break us out of it. it's going to have to be weather or the dollar drop sharply, which doesn't look like it's going to happen either. >> angie, you have some expertise on the basis side of things coming from the local elevator perspective. so, angie, what are you seeing in the east? i hear there's some good basis
opportunities. should farmers be taking advantage of that? >> i think so, yeah. i think between now and christmas you're going to have some the better basis opportunities to sell in the eastern belt, because what will tend to happen is eventually we're going to hit a point in price where we can move the grain from where it is to where it isn't. there is a lot of grain out there, especially in the western corn belt that's got to go somewhere. demand is good, and in the eastern belt that supply is tight, so if a grower has htas or if he has futures only locked in, to take advantage of the good basis now and move grain when he might not otherwise is always a good idea, i think. and to take advantage as don said as the basis strength, the lack in spreads and the ability basically to get your grain moved sooner than later may not be a bad idea. kind of beat the commercials to the punch ecause guys like me are going to have to clean out those bins and start to move that grain eventually, so someone's going to sell it to these guys that are offering big numbers. it might as well be you if you have the grain available and can make money doing it. >> don, switching gears a little bit on the hog market. you said certain contracts were seeing the lowest levels since 2009. why is it such a bearish market right now? >> well, we're having
markets like we had with the ped virus it sends a signal to expand, and we did, so now we have a lot of production. we also sent a signal to have bigger weights, and we do. we haven't been able to cut them back, but then on top of that we've also run into a head wind with our exports. in the latest report we exported 19% of our production, where earlier in the year we were 24%, so our exports are a head wind. a lot of meat. we're going to have 1.5% more hogs next year than we did this last year, so that's the issue. >> u.s. meat export federation says in september pork exports were up, but is that not enough to carry prices obviously? >> yeah, that's it. if you look at it for the year so far that is true. we were up during that
beef market we're actually down 11%, so you have more overall meat supplies in the pipeline. >> yeah, angie, go into that. this beef market, when we see limit down, limit down, pretty depressing days. how do the beef supplies look? >> well, the beef supplies are pretty solid. that's the struggle that we have is that we're seeing that we continue to import beef. we're not exporting as much. we have built up production. cattle on feed is a lot larger, which is good for the corn side and the feed side but not so great for the beef producer. from a cash market standpoint, though, it doesn't seem to be getting crazy. >> okay. >> so i think you're just going to see a continuation of where we've been probably for a while now. >> all right, we're going to get their closing thoughts when we come back on u.s. farm report. join us for the farm journal legacy conference november 17th and 18th in indianapolis, indiana. just go to farmjournallegacyproject.com to sign up. u.s. farm report viewers get $100 off the registration by typing usfr as the discount code. receive a
ghts. don roose, let's start with you. >> yeah, i think when you look at a market from a producer's standpoint the number one thing you should realize is what type of market we're in, and we're in a market that's been in a 2cent trading range in corn and about a 50 soybeans. when it gets to the top of those ranges make sure you try and market the grain if you're going to, so get a window out there in advance. and also make sure you watch the basis and the spreads very close to use that as a marketing opportunity. so i would say those are the key. don't market on the defense, market on offense. >> hearing a lot about basis. angie? >> i agree. i think the one thing that growers can do now is they know what their yield was. they know what's come out. they know what their costs were that went into
break even point is per acre. you know where you need to be selling at with what you've produced and start to build a plan. know that you need to get your bins cored. quality is huge. the only thing worse than cheap grain is cheap grain that's out of commission. >> all right. thank you both. please stay with us, john phipps will join us when we come back. for 150 years cargill has been working side by side with farmers in the agricultural community. thank you for being part of this success. we continue to look forward and are excited to offer online grain purchasing through cargillag.com.
contemptuous and predictable. and too often, i think they missed the mark. first, there was little discussion of relative risk. the cancer most studied for the red meat designation was colorectal which has a lifetime mortality risk of about 2%, which is roughly the same risk as dying from suicide. i didn't see much helpful math in most of the discussions. the other omission i think important is that the increased risk from processed meats i including everybody's favorite, bacon arises largely from heating the chemicals used to process the meats during cooking. the reason i'm raising these seemingly nitpicky details is we need to get better at understanding cancer risk. for one simply reason: within a decade in the u-s and soon after for the globe, cancer will pass heart disease as the leading cause of death. there are multiple reasons for this ranking switch i better heart heath care,
longer lives, and the very nature of cancer itself. one of the best things you can do to improve your understanding of this disease is watch the ken burns documentary, "cancer: emperor of maladies". it's educating, unsettling, and very well done. in our future, ag will be dealing with a public that is progressively more cancerphobic. and despite the fact that about 2/3 of all cancers are simple bad luck a cell in our body goes rogue it seems we demand a cause other than random chance. often that search will end up mistakenly with food. producers need to do the homework to have better answers than we currently are offering to those accusations. thanks, john. each week on the show we talk about marketing. but how can forward contracting make you money, especially in such a crippling marketing year? that's our farm
it again with more on teir 4 engines. and in tractor tales, the land of 10,000 lakes also brings us a classic w-d 45. now for the headlines, the precision world is getting smaller in agriculture. that's as john deere announced this week it's buying precision planting from monsanto company. deere says precision will opearate as a wholly owned subsidary, and john deere dealers will have the opportunity to also sell precision planting technology. monsanto is keeping climate corporation and the fieldview technology. but as part of the deal, monsanto and john deere will share data with fieldview and j-d link having the ability to communicate in cab. precision planting does have standing agreements with competing equipment manufacturers, like agoc and case i-h. john deere and agco say they plan to maintain those existing relationships. case has yet to comment. just when you thought
billion dollars in proposed cuts in the budget deal. but the house is back with an even bigger ax, proposing 24 billion in cuts. one of the biggest cost savings is eliminating the harvest price option on revenue policies. the other savings coming from returns to crop insuranmce comanies and premium subsidies.
highway and transit bill this week. the 340 billion dollar bill includes funding for roads and bridges, but also revives teh expired export-import bank. but it wasn't a complete win. some in agriculture are dissapointed that a measure allowing larger semis on the highways failed. days after the senate failed to pass a procedural vote to rewrite epa's clean water rule, the chamber passed a different measure against the rule. by a 53 to 44 vote, the chamber approved a resolution that would not only force epa and the u-s army corps of engineers to withdraw the waters of the u-s rule, but it would also prevent the agencies from setting similar rules in the future. the measure still faces strong opposition from the president. the president rejected the keystone x-l pipeline this week. the administration says the project isn't in the country's best interset. just last week, trans caanda asked the president to suspend its year- long review of the project, pushing it off until after the 2016 presidential election. the keystone x-l pipeline has been
on the table for seven years . panera is moving towards cage free eggs within the next five years, saying they will improve the lives of 425 thosuand hens by the year 2020. the chain uses around 120 million eggs a year. the restaurant chain says all their pork is now gestration crate free, and 89 percent of the beef they serve is grass-fed. the latest i-arc study linking red and processed meat to cancer may steer some consumers away from eating beff, but not michigan head coach jim harbaugh. during a radio interview this week, harbaugh revealed what he views as natural steroids. the says first, is sleep. number two on the list, milk. and not just any milk, whole milk. three would be water. and to round out his top four, steak. definitely has some words to live by... that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the longer range forecast. mike, it seems heavy rain is becoming the norm in the south. well that's right, tyne, i have seen that many times over my career, you get out of a drought and all of
tons of rain, something that you don't want. that's been the case in parts of texas over the past couple of weeks, your drought is over, but now you are pretty wet at least in the top soil. as we head through this week, we do look at storms moving quickly from west to east though, so i don't think anything will just sit over texas, like it has a couple of times over the past week, but you will notice how every little ripple moving from west to east and that will keep things moving along which means no one gets inundated with a lot of rain, but at least most areas do get at least something. 30 the outlook for temperatures, i'm going above normal for the northern plains, most of the east, except new england, below normal temperatures from west texas, western oklahoma back through the four corner region, eastern nevada. precipitation over the next 30 days, this is an el nino winter above normal for many of the southern half of the lower 48 northern sections. i'm not finding any below normal areas; we will go normal for everybody else.
basf. grow smart with basf, and get the most acre afer acre, season after season> when visiting with our analysts every week, i hear several say volatility creates opportunity. and if there's one thing we've learned the past few years, it's how volatile today's markets can be. in today's farm journal report, we continue our business driver series by loooking into why a marketing plan shouldn't be about hitting the homeruns... instead, it's forward thinking that can set you up for true marketing success.
ayear when prices are projected to be down and it hits breakeven or above, and there's an opportunity to lock in a profit, that's the primary function of a forward contract.> in a year like 2015, bleak prices mean farmers see less incentive in forward contracting. but experts say considering the peaks and valleys of farming, sometimes you'll need to sell the crop at a loss. i think the number one thing is do some pricing. you can get paralyzed based off where our prices are today. you're goign ot have to lock in sometimes at a loss and this is one of those times>
gets rolling. then we look forward to pollination period for corn crop, for pod fill and pod set period for soyebans, and look to be anywhere from a third to 50 percent sold. and i think after that point in time, until harvest, then you can probably get up to your insurance coverage level"> grete says if you can market grain in the top 25 to 30 percent, that will help ensure you're in business for the long haul.
best one is just buying a put straight out, you have a nice floor if the market rallies, you can have full opportunity for upside. > whatever tool you choose, make sure it's based on your margins, not the unknowns. and even then, blohm reminds producers marketing isn't a once-a- year event. ,thet last frontier is always marketing. it's the one that people seem to not care for the most. so that's the one you have to develop the discipline, which also means making time for it every day, and also taking time to learn about the markets."> the latest issue of top producer maginze includes a similar article,
with more on tier 4 engines. john. this week we have one finally i hope ai comment on tier four engines. "i wanted to let you know i saw an add come across my facebook news feed just this week, where someone now has a kit to remove the def tier 4 stuff from case ih tractors." r. elliott skeen denton nc. elliot, thanks for the feedback. i found the kits
not know that was a thing. it also triggered a flashback for me. back in the day, there were mechanics who developed a side business of removing catalytic converters, when we outlawed leaded gasoline. this went on for about two years i guess. from that similar regulatory brouhaha, i learned two things about about about fighting back like this. first, make sure you are in love with that machine you are altering, because its retail or trade value just dropped drastically. don't ask me how i know this. more importantly, all the talk about harmful regulation usually ignores very real health benefits. while farmers don't think diesel exhaust is killing them, it is definitely killing people in urban areas. this is
very big deal. as an example, it is only now, decades after removing lead from gasoline that we can measure accurately the astonishing effects it had on public health. there was a reason lead miners had very high rates of insanity years ago. even minute amounts lead affect brain development in very young children so much so that there is a credible scientific argument that going lead free is one of the causal factors in the long, steep decline in crime in the u-s that followed. what we do know is lead blood levels have dropped drastically in all of us, which is very good news. none of us like the hassle of
er black. baxter. having a new veterinarian out to your place to check your cows can created some spirit discussion. see these cows man they would not ever admit to really like these old shelves that they wore out they recall there better days want to make sure she had every chance. to the conversation goes like this this will be the green young veterinarian and this will
be the experience cow man. what's the story on that little be the experience cow man. what's the story on that little cow? she is sort of gimpy on the left hind leg and breathing is kind of fast. i remember when she was born, and it was not that long ago. well somebody bobbed her tail last year. i guess you ought to know you bet your laughter knows that cow she is good that i saw. i just thought since she was getting thin with that big lump on her jaw. that is not nothing just a
got a tools in her hands. listen kid i remember that girl i haven't milked her for a while she has a swing bag one big kitten skittle like a crocodile. you got to make sure you know the range and the water horse. i hate to tell you she is over now and these pro lap stitches roll old she is nothing to me gone get merriel on i know she is getting old. well you're the boss if you want to keep her whatever you say goes but if it's me i color fast and never shed a tear. i got a little graph behind the house lets run her another year. this is baxter graph behind the house lets run her another year. this is baxter
sic diesel from 1955. this wd45 was one of more than 90 thousand built and the first allis chalmers model available with power steering. < had a few tractors he was selling, picked this one out of a bunch that he had. it ran but not very, very good. and had it completely overhauled. and ended up having the block welded on it. there are not a lot of them around running anymore cause they weren't the best tractor. with the blocks cracking on them
it in the fall. i've got a two row planter that i use with it. i got this about 12 years ago and it took about three years in the restoration process, with having the motor overhauled and the 45 diesel was rated at 43 horse and i've had this one on the dine while i was getting 50 horse out of it. it's the buddha 230 cubic inch motor. it probably goes about 15 miles an hour. > this weekend's country church salute goes to st mary's catholic church in victoria, texas. this iconic church is special to the lone- star state, as it was the first parish in the republic of texas, and still going strong. congratulations.
mike, w week. heather emailed us a few photos from their farm in south central missouri, which is considered the ozarks. she says they are a family farm with three generations, with obviously a lot of help. from feeding cows to hauling hay. but check out this halloween costume, mike. heather told us her five year old son was dressed like the family farmall h tractor. how cute!
drought monitor the drastic difference in the south with texas and louisiana. i know it's uncertain, mike, but could el nino this winter bring some major relief to california?> it's possible. > how possible?> i think there's a good chance it could bring some relief. the extent is the big question is whether it brings enough to start cutting down the drought. i think it will cut down slightly, but whether it takes it all away is probably not. that's my thought. for john, al and mike, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone.