tv U.S. Farm Report ABC February 21, 2016 5:00am-6:00am PST
quarterly report of the year, analysts say better demand and lower supply in countires like u-s, china, thailand and europe are helping reduce the hefty supply issue we saw last year. in china, new restrictiosn on breeding stock will help keep tbird numbers down. but prices will still remain volatile due to avian influenza. the chem china and syngenta acquisition could open the door for g-m crops in china.. that's according to syngenta's leadership reuters reporting, the 43 billion dollar deal likely to give syngenta unrivaled access to the chinese market--the world's largest grain producer. also heating up, discussions about oil production and the impact on prices. four major producers, qatar, russia, saudi arabia and venezuela announcing a joint agreement to freeze current output levels. they hope the move will help lift falling prices. the latest pulse of the rural economy is improving, but it's the first time a large portion of bankers
creighton university puts out a monthly rural mainstreet index, showing the rmi rising to 37 from 35 last month. but that's still below the score of 50 which represents growth neutral. but of the 200 bankers surveyed through-out the midwest and plains states, less than nine percent see improvement in their local economies. but nearly 37-percent say their local economies are in a recession. the association of equipment manufactures january flash report showing tractor sales falling 6 percent year over year. big two wheel drive machines taking the hardest hit--off nearly 40 percent. 4-wheel drive units also falling--down 9 percent. while smaller two wheel drive machines getting a little bump--- up 13 percent over last january. combine sales also seeing positive sales--up 21 percent.. usda thinks a shift in the climate could change what u-s farmers grow. the economic reserach division of usda did an analysis of how the ag landcape will change from the year 20-20 to 20-80. researcehrs say
acreaage to drop. instead, they think rice, hay and cotton acres will grow, and the amoutn of corn, soybeans, sorghum, wheat and silage farmers plant will drop. the national cattlemen's beef association says the president is leveraging the antiquities act once again to lock up millionsf acres out west. in a press release, ncba says a total of one point 8 million acres is being designated-- pushing the total land set aside over the last seven years to 265 million acres. ncba says they expect the president to continue the designations through this year adding an additional 10 million acres in all. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. mike, a massive warmup last week. is it here to stay for a while? thanks, tyne. no it is not. however, i do not see any big blasts of artic air for most of this week either maybe by the weekend, but we will deal with that later. here's the drought monitor: you can see just pockets of slight dryness in the northeast a little bit of
worst area continues to be much of california and nevada that area has kind of stayed stable over the last week after shrinking for most of the winter so far. let's go day by day this week: all across the country there is one potential big storm which we will talk about for the middle of the week but then everything gets kind of weak here. this cold front through the southeast and back into texas will produce areas of showers that could be good news for these drier areas in texas, a little bit of rain and snow along this front in the great lakes and the northeast and rain and mountain snow with this front coming into the pacific northwest, but otherwise you can see it is turning colder again across the plain states, still warm in the southwest. now by wednesday, pretty strong storm system moving up to the eastern seaboard whether that is off shore a way or farther inland makes a big difference in whether your area gets rain or snow that's why we will be watching a little bit of snow with this system moving through the great lakes should be pretty light and some very light rain in the southern plains with that one another cold front coming
week. now by friday, then there is still some fairly cold air coming back in with another one probably poised to come in after that so some lake effect snow showers northeast in the great lakes and you can see nothing more than a few showers in south texas, otherwise dry. our longer range forecast in the next half hour. thanks, mike. after several weeks on the road, we're back in the studio for this week's marketing discussion. i'll host dustin johnson and brian splitt next.
already know that wheat acres are down 3 million, winter wheat acres and our thought is that spring wheat will be down about another million. the acres that are lost aren^t great corn and bean growing ground so you know, we could see some of it go to corn and beans but i think a lot of it will go to sorghum as well. so generally there^s still a lot of acres that can come out of prevent plant for next year though, so we do -- we are part of the group that thinks that corn and bean acres will be going up next year and since it is a cost-cutting year it should be going to beans. >> and i^ve heard a lot of that this year. so are you in the same camp? is allendale in the same camp? >> allendale has right now we^re looking at about 1.2 million acres above and beyond last year for corn and 800,000 acres for soybeans above and beyond last year. we^ll get a little bit more of an idea. we^re going to start our annual planting intention survey next week so that will run for two weeks and that will give us a much better idea of what our clients at least are thinking for the upcoming year. >> well, another
we^re going to move from an el nino to a la nina, noaa even coming out and mentioning la nina. so if this is the case, what does our marketing plan need to be this year, dustin? >> i think, you know, as always you want to keep a rather open approach. with that said though you do have guaranteed bushels with insurance, so i think if you really lean on that, you know, if there are chances to lock in a margin when last year is proof that we needed in that short window to make those hard decisions. you can^t pay attention to what the long term forecasters are saying, you have to do what^s best for the farm profitability. so i don^t hang my hat on the weather. >> and it^s hard not to do that when there is hope that crisis could go higher. so brian, based on that what is your advice? >> agree, so we^ve got several weather outfits that are calling for various things to happen whether it^s for late planting or a possibility of a drought, but i think if there^s at least a perception of some of these we can see some volatility in the market. you have to be able to use the volatility to your advantage, you know, keep you pencils sharp, know your cost
you need to do that. but then find a way to open up the upside in case these weather forecasts are correct and so i would always advocate using september^s short-dated options as a tool. you can probably buy those in late may, early june. get yourself two months of coverage just in case the weather does act up. >> well, speaking of weather, dustin, we^re hearing of flooding down in argentina. is that priced into the market? could that give us a little bit of bump here short term? >> actually i think that should be priced into the market. that^s really not in our radar as a major market mover. if anything, you know, a few weeks ago they were shaving some of the yield estimates production estimates for both brazil and argentina. weather has been really good though. so aside from the flooding and we^re actually seeing a lot of people starting to bump up total production coming out of south america, so if anything i think it would be a bear for the market. >> and brazil, you had mentioned, brian, that we^re starting to see some taxes in brazil, so what is the picture
possibility that we might see some state taxes implemented. it^s the beginning of the conversations so there^s nothing concrete. but that could be something that might change a little bit down the road. if we do see some taxes levied then that may make us a little bit more competitive, but as far as weather right now in south america, whether it^s argentina or too much rain in south america in general, any of these logistical issues are short term opportunities so you have to keep an eye on it. we saw it last year. we had truck strikes last year. it was an opportunity for a couple of weeks, then it was gone, so you had to take advantage of it while it^s there. >> well, moving to another country, drought in
our crops? >> yeah, well, right now we don^t know a whole lot about what the impact is going to be, but there is a huge spread on guesses what final production is going to be. on the high end you have the indian government, 94 million metric tons, on the low end, you^ve got some people that are 20 million below that. so that could really tip the scales for world wheat if india goes from a small net exporter to maybe a small net demand picture isn^t that pretty right now. >> i mean it^s pretty bleak right now. we had the argentinian peso hit about you need 15 of those to make one u.s. dollar so that^s a new level that we^ve just reached. and so you^ve got the production and india is one side of it. we^ve got a tremendous amount of the world wheat stocks in is china, so you know, that could be something that we need to keep and eye on, but overall right now, rallies are selling opportunities short term until something big picture does change. >> you mentioned china, we need to talk about some possible policy changes over there, and what impact we could see from that. so we^ll do that when we come back on u.s. farm report. [ break] >> welcome
changes in china for their corn crop and some of those reserves that we see there. so give us an update on what impact that could have. >> sure. china^s holding a massive proportion of the world^s corn carryout and they^re having trouble getting rid of it. so there^s one of two things that can happen, or two of two things that could happen. one, they could lower their support price for corn to try to prevent some of this arbitrage where feed grain products come from the u.s. into the country, or two, they could be lowering their offering price for their option. so if they do both that could really send the message to the world that there^s plenty of grain around and they^re not going to be bringing any more in, and i think that would be, you know, one of the catalysts that could drive our prices lower. >> well, here at home, we heard that the fed was going to
camp at the end of the year. now, kind of that tone has changed a little bit. why is that, brian? do you think we will see the fed increase rates this year? >> well, so we had the fed increase interest rates in december and into that the dollar index on a cash and futures basis made very substantial highs going into that announcement, came aggressively lower once the announcement was made and since then we^ve had some of our federal reserve counterparts across the world go into more of a monetary easing policy. japan is in negative interest rates right now. so a week ago fed chairman yellen was talking about could we possibly have to remain accommodative to our european counterparts. so the idea of maybe seeing this once a quarter interest rate increase like we thought, probably on a back burner for the time being. >> so if we don^t continue to increase interest rates, what impact does that have on the u.s. dollar, dustin? >> well,
market, if you look at the vet on interest rate hikes, it's already down to, you know, record lows again for march, so the market should be accounting for that right now. >> okay. and you agree with that? >> i agree. >> okay. looking here at home, speaking of that, soybean storage. we were talking earlier, brian, and you said there's just a lot of farmers right now that are storing soybeans but it's really not paying to do so. >> no, you know, we've seen that consistently in november went to an inverse over january, january was at an inverse over march and there is a little bit of a carry between march and may and may and july right now. but i continue to get phone calls from producers that are not only storing beans but some of them are paying commercial storage, and so i continue to advocate. if the market's not paying you to store it it's definitely not paying you to pay somebody else to store it, and if you look at basis levels in the western cornbelt, specifically, it's really rough, so i have a hard time, you know, continuing to suggest that we should hold onto cash beans. the market's in a sideways range. you get a little move to the upper end of the range, it's probably time to move some beans. >> wheat, you know, noaa came out and said
some moisture. that's positive for the crop, but at the same time this week we're seeing some really warm temperatures for february in areas of kansas and the plains, so is that bearish for wheat right now? >> well, i think that, yeah, you know, we talked about the acres being down. production is looking fine for right now, but it's more on the world front, i think, if we get a favorable crop we don't have the competitive dollar right now to get those exports and we're still looking at the 800, you know, at least 800 million carryout. that's a pretty bearish price. >> yeah, t right now you think that the weather's tricking the wheat crop over there? >> the temperatures we're seeing in southwest kansas could confuse the crop a little bit, but the problem is the market may really not react to that aggressively until we come out of dormancy and see what the conditions are coming out of dormancy. >> i
chart, what is it telling us? >> in a down trend. april cattle's been in a down trend since july 8th is where i'm drawing my down trend off. we've been interacting with this down trend several times. we're butting up against it right now, that and the 100 day moving average. so until we clear those levels this is probably a selling opportunity short term, at least technically. >> all right. and we should see prices in the spring? where do you think we'll head? >> allendale's models have feb and april cattle maintaining price action in this 34, 35 area, but we do typically see some seasonal highs made in early march from both cattle and hogs, so you've got to keep that in mind. >> all right. we'll need to get your closing thoughts, and we're going to do that when we come back. >> this is machinery pete, inviting you to check out my new website, machinerypete.com. offering farmers tens of thousands of used equipment listings to search. let machinery pete help
still the most important thing that you can buy this year, and i've heard a lot of producers that are talking about lowering or even eliminating crop insurance because the prices are down this year. and i think that's a mistake because that's our backbone to prevent financial catastrophe and something that we have able to sell into through the year. >> all right, dustin, thanks. brian? >> some of the things i've been really harping on lately has been efficiency of ownership and then doing some planning for capturing carry on this particular crop year, so, we had a lot of producers let a lot of value slip through their hands because they weren't paying attention to the spreads between december and july, and you got to keep an eye on that stuff. and typically we'll see the best opportunity before july 4th as far as the carry. >> all right. john phipps is with us when we come back. >> receive a free trial of the daily market letter and gain knowledge about current market conditions from the professionals at bower trading. view the markets like never before. go to
bond, after all, as they share a common enemy. one of the most important aspects of the job, in my opinion, is storytelling. small children love stories, and the very best are done verbally while they stare straight into your eyes from your lap. if you are prospective grandparents let me offer some hints. the best of all are tales you totally fabricate, but i realize this is difficult for many. i actually research stories on the internet and make short summaries of key plot points on a smartphone app so that i can appear to have an endless store of narrative wisdom. i practice telling them out on the tractor. i like to feature stories with lots of exaggeration and out-right impossibilities - similar to paul bunyan. there is a good reason for this other than to make their parents sigh sadly and later explain how grandpa may not be the best person to
tales begin to trigger a slightly different response. small brows furrow as they begin to question some of the dubious parts of the story. even invoking magic must be done in a consistent manner: if "the hero suddenly grows ten feet tall, how about his clothes?" i believe they learn to listen openly but critically, which may be as important as the moral lessons the stories tell. they also begin to feel like they are in on the jokes, which adds a new dimension to their self-image and the bond between you. despite the flood of information children can receive via technology, i am convinced there is something deep within us that responds to the spoken word and imagination. long after my grandchildren join their parents in eye-rolling exasperation at my fables, i hope they will have learned something about how to
fafarm farm report. we have much more ahead over the next 30 minutes... regulations are now a way of life for some farmers out east. our farm journal report takes us to the chesapeake bay. we're on the road with machinery pete with moisture in texas meant a change in mood and buying. and in customer support,
the headlines, the average retail price for u-s diesel fell below 2 dollars for the first time in more than a decade. but some think we still haven't found the floor just yet. profarmer inputs monitor editor davis michaelson says softness in the crude oil market is overflowign to diesel, as well. that's pushing prices lower. heating oil and farm diesel spread giving little indication prices will firm anytime soon.
and deseld dmeand picks up. movign to ethanol, it was top of mind at the renewable fuels association's 21st annual national ethanol conference in new orleans this week. ag secretary tom vilsack on hand with new research. he says the ethanol industry today is more efficient than ever...adding it's time to throw out those assumptions from 15 years ago. < you're looking at efficient operation the ratios have increased from 2.3 to 2.8 for every unit in and out. that's an incredible advanceemnt and the air quality of what's been reduced in the course of this industry over the past 15 years or so, we've literally taken 124 million cars off the road in terms of emissions,"> usda says since 2009 the industry has more than doubled renewable energy production. president barack obama says he plans to make a trip to cuba within the next
the country since calvin coolidge in 1928. just this week the white house announced it will allow as many as 110 flights a day to cuba. the u-s and cuba restored diplomatic ties last july, after the u-s lifted a 54 year freeze on travel and trade. for the first time in 50 years, the american government allowing an american company to build a factory in cuba. the white house is allowing a small u-s company to build a ten million dollar plant in the communist country. it's considered the first significant u-s business investment since fidel castro seized power in 1959. .the tractor plant will assemble small tractors from parts shipped-over from the u-s. .the investors plan to sell about a thousand of the 25-horse tractors annually. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the longer range forecast. mike, are we shifting away that wet el nino pattern? well, tyne at times we are, because we are getting this ridge developing in
east and you can see that pattern starting to go back, but we are still in one of those patterns where we expect storms to occasionally come into the west off the pacific, so let's put this jetstream map into motion. you can see how a deeper and deeper trough continues developing as we head onto this week and very cold air for the northeast quadrant of the country as we head to this coming weekend, but that should keep it on the mild side through the southern tier of the country and maybe some systems finally coming into the west, coming in cutting under that area of high pressure. 30 day outlook for temperatures, i am still going below normal for the southern tier of states up along the canadian border and out west, above normal 30 day outlook for precipitation, below normal across the great lakes, northern rockies, pacific northwest, above normal for the southern tier of states, so the moisture we are still kind of expecting that el nino pattern although it does go away at times, tyne? thanks, mike. the supreme court didn't talk about a petition from the american farm bureau challenign epa's cheseapeake bay clean up plan last week. the
but was cancelled due to the ceremony honoring justice scalia, who passed away unexpectedly last weekend. acorrding to poltico, it's unlikely the supreme court will hear farm bureau's challenge. if that happens, a previous ruling uphodling epa's plan will remain in place. but for those livign and farming along the east coast, regulations are now a way of life. national reporter betsy jibben breaks down the blueprit. o national corn grower president, chip bowling, the chesapeake isn't just a bay but a big part of his life. we're about 3 miles from where the crow flies from the patomic river,"> bowling is an active sportsman and outdoorsman who lives along a tributary of the bay. but like other farmers in the area, his love for the water requires balancing two passions-
careful about chemicals and has impleemnted buffer strips and cover crops. "we're learning to cope because we've had the mandate now for so many years. most farmers are accustomed to the different regulations we have to adhear to,"> for example, since the mandates began, every farm has to adapt to the state's nutrient management plan- if farmers don't have an updated plan, they cannot buy fertilizer. american soybean association president, richard wilkins lives along the delmarva peninsula. he also has to follow his state's nutrient management plan. richard:
nutrients or what amounts of nutrients to apply to my fields. i now have to hire a certified professional to do that work for me. that's causing a cost to me of about 8-thousand dollars a year,"> under the clean water act, the federal government is responsible for regulating point source pollutants that is a known discharge source - such as a pipe, ship or smokestack. generally, the states are responsible for regulating non-point source pollutants such as runoff from fertilizer, rain or snowmelt. in 2015, the united states court of appeals for the third circuit said the federal government could have authority over both point source and non point source pollution- that could give the government more jurisdiction through the tmdl process. "that's a huge development in terms of the way the court constrewed the rules under the clean water act.if turns out to be the case and if another court follows that same reasoning at the federal level
gives the feds better jurisdiction over various types of runoff from farm fields and ranches too. we'll have to watch to see what happens as we get into 2016,"> in the meantime, farmers like bowling are abiding by the rules and enjoying the water.. bowling says water quality has improved and that's all thanks to what farmers have done to clean up the bay... reporting for u.s. farm report, i'm betsy jibben. thanks, betsy. mceowen says this new court decision has the potential to bleed into other watersheds across the country. up next, john phipps.
antiobiotic resistance in customer support john dale and beverly nauertz from richland center, wisconsin wanted more information about an antibiotic resistance and biotech corn rumor: "he said when bt corn was about to come to the market, he was a seed corn dealer he asked what were the side effects with the bt products and the industry rep said "oh it makes animals that eat it antibiotic resistant". well, folks the short answer to this question is "no". this claim was most widely propagated by jeffery smith, an anti-gmo activist in his book "genetic roulette". it has been thoroughly debunked by medical researchers, along with all his other questionable claims. what i find more interesting, however, is the power of a logo on a shirt to suggest expertise. the source was a seed corn
said was given weight because of our automatic assumption that he was privy to inside information. social scientists have noticed how, as our technology becomes more difficult for many to understand, we fall back on our presumed ability to judge people instead. so if the seed dealer is a guy you like, you give more weight to what he says. it is easy to dimiss such unfounded claims as false information fed to a gullible and poorly educated public, but that doesn't solve our problem. from cell phone cancer to lead levels in water, complex problems - and the fear they spark - are overloading our abilities to make rational judgments. developing a higher level of trust between the scientific community and the public is the best answer. but that will take time - a long time, i suspect. in the meantime, i think we can take a big step forward to relieve this anxiety by simply using a tool we are already
for answers on the internet, especially with your smartphone, it is worth learning if only to lower your pulse rate. it is now routine in our sunday school class to google some biblical or historical question and move the discussion forward. pepersonal integrity is still to be respected. however, in the words of president reagan, "trust, but verify". thanks, john. and don't forget you can send your questions or comments to john by email, or facebook and twitter. up next, decent rains meant a better mood across the southern plains for many farmers. we'll tell you how that impacted equipment buying when we go on teh road with machinery pete.
deere. nothing runs like a deere.> we started a new segment here on u-s farm report to ring in the new year. it's called on the road with machinery pete. last month we visited ohio to discuss equipment trends. this month, it's a trip to the southern plains. clinton griffiths takes us to amarillo texas to western equpment where mother nature helped entice buying momentum in 2015. 2015 brought a fresh start for texas and oklahoma ranchers. after surviving four years of a record-breaking drought, resilliance prevailed and mother nature finally gave area farmers a break. that switch in the
play there and it could just be a really good time to be a buyer> for area farmers, after the last few years, a decision is difficult to sourt out. one factor that could play in agriculture's favor is having permanent tax incentives in place, including section 179 at the 500 thousand dollar threshold. spending wisely, to improve production. we're trying to be efficient, and stay efficient, and try to get more efficient in what we do> that's why williams decided to purchase a cotton picker that also bales e crop. new technology is a game changer for this southern plains farmer.
> whether it's upgraidng your current equipment, or upgrading technology and data, machinery pete says don't let lower commodity prices make you blind to an opportunities to buy. thanks, clinton. next month, we'll travel with machinery pete to central illinois to get a regional look at buying momentum there. when we come back, tractor tales and our country church salute...please stay with us. welcome back. this week we
system that they developed and eventually sold to new idea. it has a baler unit on it right now, but you can put a combine unit on it or a chopper unit on it, but this one has the baler unit which is kind of on the rare side. we had a junker that had died and this particular unit was on his sale and i tried to buy it then. and i got outbid so i kept track of where it went and the guy had it for 7/8 years and he sand blasted it and restored it basically and he decided to sell it and i ended up buying it from him. about 5 years ago. the tractor is one unit and then you but all your different units on it, very primitive. the only thing it does is power steering. everything is belt driven so everything runs on the slow side and if you have a slippy belt you know and you don't go to good. they're a little under powered and they needed some refinements. well the motor on it looks like a v 4 wisconsin
the same design and everything as to wisconsin engine but its not. you have to drop the bales they have no hitch they didn't have enough power to pull the wagon and all the bales out of the shoot. but they were pretty ahead of their time. you could put the two row corn picker on it and it was self propelled today's country church salute goes to the argyle bible church. it's located outside the small community of colchester, illinois. missy phillips took this picture of the sanctuary beautifully decorated for christmas! thank you, missy, for sending that in. if you have a church you'd like to share, please mail or email those submissions in. stay with us - tyne is back with cropwatch next. u.s. farm reprot brought to you by case ih. to learn more, visit caseih.com/efficient power
that's right on lake michigan. and it was cold, but the lake is definitley not as frozen as it has been the past two years. he told me lake michigan has half the ice cover it did a year ago. looking at all five great lakes, ic cover is around 20 percent. that compared to 82 percent this time last year. so a dramatic difference. well, tyne, our friends in iowa have been seeing some snow. steve volkert snapped this picture of a sundog on a frosty february morning. so wha causes this? sundogs ar etypically caused by high thin clouds made of ice crystals, which create one or two lights spots on teh side of the sun. in
because there's no clouds in this picture. it's neat. just to the south, there's not a lot of snow cover. james tells us spring tillage is underway at twin rivers. he said before this week, it had been chilly and dry, with no significant precipitation since december.yep, that was in missouri. mike, it's a similar story for my parents back home in lexington, missouri, which si north of james. kinsler and i were home this weekend and this is a view from their backyard. i heard on the local news that they are facing one of the top five snowless winters ever. they've had some rain, but just barely a dusting of snow this year. and temperatures jumped 30 degrees in one day, even hitting the 70 degree mark thursday. now on my way to airport saturday to fly out of chicago, white out conditiosn. it depdnds on where you live. and here in the lake effect zones, we've had a fair amoutn of snow. still below normal this year, yeah, still it's snow. for john, al and
sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone. the chevy silverado is the official news gathering vehcile for farm journal television >> announcer: next, a paid presentation from perricone md for cold plasma sub-d, brought to you by guthy renker. cold plasma sub-d is the first-of-its-kind treatment for the area of your body that can actually age you most -- your neck, hosted by network television star courtney thorne-smith and featuring some of the most dramatic before-and-after photos you've ever seen. >> hi, everyone. i'm courtney thorne-smith. don't change the channel,
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