tv BBC World News America PBS May 7, 2015 2:30pm-3:01pm PDT
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>> welcome to the bbc's election center. four minutes from now, when big ben's strikes 10, we can reveal the contents of our exit poll. . until then, our lips are sealed. this election must count as one of the most fascinating unpredictable ever, an exciting night ahead of us, all the results will come in here to be analyzed, and they will reveal whether david cameron will return triumphant, or ed miliband succeeds in driving him from number 10, or whether it will be a hung parliament making us wait hours or days before we know who gets the key to the door. jeremy vine has taken up residence in his virtual world to explain to us all. jeremy: welcome to our virtual downing street. tonight we will see how near the winner of this election could
get to the very door of number 10. these are the seats one last time. the conservatives came first, but they did not have enough to reach this line and govern alone. tonight we will see how close the parties get. if neither david cameron nor ed miliband can command a majority on their own, will there be a place for the liberal democrats? or for nicola sturgeon's snp? or one of the other northern ireland parties? 650 mp's to be elected, 650 individual races. each one of them vital to the outcome. >> all that exit poll information has been loaded into our touchscreen, the results of talking to 20,000 people throughout the day. in a few minutes we should be able to tell you which seat will be changing hands. >> the party leaders voted
earlier today joining 46 million of us who have the right to do so. in a few moments, the ballot walks is will be rushed to the counting centers. -- boxes will be rushed to the counting centers. reporter: with the help of many more like them from two local stores they hope to bring the first results of the night. they have done that for the last two elections and are hoping to do it this evening. they want to bring that first results earlier in the evening than they ever have a four. they have a secret weapon up their sleeve. they're aiming for 10:40. >> appear above us is andrew neil, with a birds eye view of the political scene. he will be joined by politicians throughout the night to discover why the election turned out as it did and what kind of government is likely to result. andrew: i'm here to interview a
procession of mere mortals and why they won lost, or managed to score abroad. what are they going to do for an encore? outside broadcasting house in the center of london, standing on a gigantic map of the united kingdom, a perspective on the political battleground being so fiercely fought. reporter: this is our map that shows where the political power in the u.k. really lies. we have made every constituency the same size. it is laid out in the colors of the 2010 general election. shortly we will take the whole thing up. as the results come in, we will relay how much the power balance has shifted. anchor: laura will be following action on social media, all the gossip and protections, and the bbc's political editor, who day
after day illuminates the political scene, nick robinson. we'd better get started, first with our exit poll, which even now i can't reveal until big ben strikes 10. it is carefully calculated. here it is, 10:00. we are saying the conservatives are the largest party. here are the figures which we have, quite remarkable this exit poll, the conservatives on 316. that is of nine since the last election in 2010. ed miliband for labor, 77 behind him at 239 down 19 from the last election. and the other parties, the liberal democrats and the
scottish national party -- look at the scottish national party. 50 84 nicola sturgeon -- 58 for nicola sturgeon. nick clegg for the liberal democrats on 10, down 47 from the last election. ukip -- treat that with caution. it is difficult to work and places where ukip has not stood before. two for ukip. we shall discover when he first results start coming in how accurate it is. if that is the story, it is a sensational story. nick? nick: sensational. an extraordinary night if the exit poll is right. you sensed cries of joy from conservatives gloom -- conservatives, gloom for the
labour party, misery amongst liberal democrats. even if the exit poll is broadly right, quite small shifts in those numbers of seats which is perfectly possible within the margin of error of an exit poll, could produce dramatic changes to who governs britain next. the conservatives talked of winning a majority. a few of them believe that possible. many of them believed they would not make games. if that exit poll shifts a bit david cameron may still struggle to find the allies he needs to form a majority government. ed miliband would find it difficult, but he would not have to despair. there would still be the possibility of an ed miliband-led government. this exit poll for everyone is a form of exquisite torture. it's in not enough for anyone yet to know their side has won.
there is still a little bit of hope for the side they believe in. host: that's a frightening analysis. we shall see what happens during the evening. this is the bbc's exit poll done with others. 2010 was on the nail in accuracy. the conservatives 316 labor 239, scottish national party 58 out of 59 seats in scotland. liberal democrats on 10, losing 47 seats from where they were in 2010. one gain we are predicting for wales, ukip on two, the greens on two, one up from what they had last time around. others are 19, which includes all the northern irish seats and
george galloway as an independent, probably. what kind of government might me expect -- we expect from these figures? jeremy: welcome to our noisy virtual house of commons, where we can take those numbers from the forecast and put the mp's on the benches for you. exit poll only. this is a forecast. conservatives up 9, an improvement on 2010. david cameron there just looking, rather forceful about what happens next. the liberal democrats have taken serious damage. you bring on labor, 239 mp's for them and ed is watching the conservative side to see the lib dems come on. they're down 47. look at this.
they are on the line. the line is down here. 326 is what they need to have an overall majority. conservatives plus lib dems under the exit poll gets to exactly 326 seats. it only takes a tiny variation in our forecast for them to drop below that. there could be other issues mr. cameron might need to consider. we will go to the opposition benches now. we have labor on2 239. 59 seats in total in scotland. they've gone from 6 seats to 58 under nicola sturgeon. it has been quite a good night
for the nationalists, who have gained a seat. ukipha have two mp's under our seat. let's take a look at the others, which is the other northern ireland party. i mentioned the options for david cameron. if we have a situation where as the night goes on, maybe the lib dems have suffered even more damage, the conservatives have fewer than that 1-6, what happens next? he could try and bring them over to the -- dup over to the government benches. even if you arrange all these mp's together and the snp mp's, they could not switch to this site and govern as a coalition because they do not make the 326 seats you need in the house of commons for an overall majority.
it leaves us poised for a fascinating night. host: we shall see this as it takes place. in appearance outside broadcasting house in london, we have a giant map. the forecast, conservatives the largest party. that forecast, that exit poll will become a forecast as we start getting results in. it may be somewhat modified. one way or another, we don't know until we have the first results and. -- in. i have the former education secretary in the studio with me. i would like to ask you a simple question. you have been at the center of this campaign, you have been hearing from your candidates all day long. do you believe our exit poll is right? guest: it could be right.
if it is right, the conservatives have clearly won and labor clearly lost. we have not had an incumbent government increase the majority like this since 1983. . it would be a vote of confidence in david cameron's leadership and the message we enforced throughout this campaign, which is that if people want to ensure economic recovery, they've got to make sure david is in downing street. host: would you envisage a revival of the coalition with the liberals even though they are predicted to have fallen by 47 seats, they would still give you enough to have a majority in the house? guest: as you yourself said, the exit polls have been hedged around with caveats. if it is true, it does suggest the party has done very well tonight and tomorrow the prime minister, if this exit poll is correct, will outline the basis
on which we can go forward. let's not preempt what the prime minister will say tomorrow. host: you would not rule out going with the liberal democrats to get the majority or with the dup from northern ireland? guest: if the exit poll is correct, it gives the prime minister considerable authority. we should wait for the prime minister to say tomorrow on what basis he proceeds and on what basis he wants to ensure he has the strong, stable government we argued for and the country has backed. host: do you think you might have an overall majority? you know as well as the exit poll.ss. guest: people have reported there has been a high turnout just like in 1992. as people have decided, as the election date has come closer,
more and more people are being persuaded by the superb campaign david cameron has run. i think they -- by any measure this is a success for david cameron. you hedged it with caveats. we must wait to see because no actual results have been declared yet. host: why do you think it was such in the view of the public a dismal campaign which never caught alight and had you lever -- level with labor up until polling started today? guest: it was the view of the commentators -- host: and the opinion polls. guest: the opinion polls will have to answer as to whether their methodology is right. if they've got it wrong, i'm sure they will have sophisticated explanations. if this is correct, the public responded enthusiastically and rewarded david cameron and our
team with an increased number of seats. if the poll is right, that is unprecedented for more than 30 years. host: we have to put in that caveat, because this is a hypothesis. guest: on the one hand, michael is being cautious. on the other, he isn't. language will be important tonight. michael use the language of, we have clearly won. you win an election if you get more than 326 members of parliament. i think you will see the conservatives, whether this is right, or wildly overstates their vote, constantly using the language of winning. they will say, we are the largest party, clearly we won. but is that winning, technically? discuss. david: we will be joined by the
deputy leader of the labour party for her reaction to that opinion poll. we are waiting for the first results. the first results come from a local battle between the black cats and magpies. if you are a football enthusiast, that is between sunderland and newcastle. let's join fiona bruce and see how that race she mentioned earlier on is going. fiona: it's all about speed and accuracy here in sutherland. the first ballot box arrived at two minutes past 10 to a great round of applause. the boxes brought here are snipped open. it is opened given [indiscernible]
who will run over to where the counters are waiting. let's see where this ballot box going. let's follow it. it is all finely calibrated to make it as fast as possible. they have especially lightweight paper to make it lighter to carry and quicker to count. let's see if we can follow that box over there. he will have to move quickly. the aim is to get the count. get the first results earlier than before. they have a secret weapon this time, a special computer program which unlike last election added all the vote up towards the end. as each ballot boxes opened, they are keeping a rolling tally of the votes as they go along.
when the final vote is tossed they will have the end result. they are hoping that will be at 10:40. >> they are being chased by the magpies in newcastle who are running just as fast, which is a curious match that goes on every election where people are actually trained and do simulated runs and all the rest to get it right. so skilled are they in the northeast that in swindon, they have -- the people in the northeast had to do it, to teach them in swindon. the first results will give us a good idea of how labor is doing in the northeast, give us a good idea of our exit poll. [indiscernible] >> she's not there. david: word from you.
reporter: from nicola sturgeon probably the only person to have had a fantastic campaign, has reacted to this. she has written she would treat the exit poll with huge caution. she's hoping for a good night but she says 58 seats are unlikely. clearly the snp will have had huge successes tonight. i terrible disaster if it is for labor in the heartland. it has not felt as bad on the ground as the polls suggested. our exit poll suggests it was even worse than they had been hearing. if it is 58 seats -- david: that would be quite a shift from our exit poll for labor to be able to put together a coalition. reporter: indeed, and all the grappling we were talking about probably does not happen at all.
>> the geography, the political geography of the u.k., people remember now how the tories were decimated in scotland. a removed their legitimacy. labor may face the same situation. andrew: we are joined by the former leader of the liberal democrats, the man who ran nick clegg's campaign in the 2010 election. if this exit poll is anywhere near right, this is beyond your worst nightmares. guest: if this exit poll is right, i will publicly eat my hat on your program. andrew: do you have a hat? guest: i will get one. when you have seen in the last 24 hours, the poll gives us 31 seats.
one or other of these two polls the exit poll or ugov, is wrong. i bet you my hat eaten on your program that is wrong. my guess is this is why the opinion polls are all over the place. the great giant of the british people has been floundering until this morning. the large percentage of those people who make up that giant of a british electorate will have made up their minds as they strolled to the polling booth this morning like 1992 when 20% made up their mind on the day. capacity for accuracy is huge. it could be right. i can tell you with all the confidence i can give you -- [indiscernible] >> you've got to let me ask the question.
your appetite for any kind of coalition government would be over, wouldn't it? guest: you are a reasonable man. we have seen a lot of water flow under the bridge, including inaccurate exit polls. you expect me to speculate on what i regard to be a certain era. i'm not going to do it. >> let's say you have done better than the exit poll, but the tories are still be large party. do you have an appetite for a coalition with the conservatives? guest: they are doing what they have done before, which is listening to the voice of the ballot docs -- box and making sure we do what is right to provide stable government for the country. nothing here alters that. andrew: it looks like the
conservatives are the largest party. are you up for another five years in government with the conservatives? guest: no politician like myself who has been in this for more than 30 years who has put the national interest first will be up for providing stable government with the party elected and given the mandate by the british people in the interests of the nation. andrew: it does not look like anyone has been given the mandate. i'm trying to find out if you have the appetite to make government again. guest: one of nick's great achievements was to change the culture of the party. andrew: the liberal democrats said the exit poll in 2020 -- in 2010 was wrong as well. [indiscernible] david, we may have a whole lot of hat-eating tonight.
i'm looking forward to it. david: marzipan hat. andrew: i think scottish tweed is the kind we are talking about. david: some bro. -- sombrero. >> make sense of international news at bbc.com/news. >> funding of this presentation is made possible by the freeman foundation newman's own foundation giving all profits from newman's own to charity and pursuing the common good, kovler foundation, and mufg. >> it's a global truth -- we can do more when we work together. at mufg, our banking relationships span cultures and
captioning sponsored by newshour productions, llc >> ifill: a landmark decision in the ongoing debate over n.s.a. surveillance, as a federal court rules that bulk collection of americans' phone records is illegal. good evening, i'm gwen ifill. judy woodruff is away. also ahead this thursday: after months of false starts, political maneuvering, and heated debate, congress voted overwhelmingly today to give itself a voice in nuclear talks with iran. senators john thune and tim kaine join us to discuss the path to rare consensus. plus, after the recent unrest in baltimore, can the city overcome its lasting economic impact? >> when they're at that boiling