tv Charlie Rose PBS November 26, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm PST
>> rose: welcome to the program. we begin this evening with ian bremmer of eurasia group. >> as much as hollande now is doing his damnedest to build security within france and also to take a leadership role in the region, even with the russians as need be, the fact is that this-- these attacks came not only on his watch but on highest alert, when they were aware they had these people on watch lists. and they had an extremely advanced surveillance law that was quite controversial when it was put in place back in may. and yet they were unable to prevent it. >> rose: and two voices from russia. we begin with gary kasparov, his book is called winter is coming, why vladimir putin and the enemies of the free world must be stopped. >> the way russia has been treated is like a crazy uncle at thanksgiving din are. don't mention democracy, don't
mention human rights, don't talk about things that could upset him. but unfortunately, you know, it created a sense of impunity. and looking back, you know, at the '90s, you know, we could actually see some turning points where many problems that we have been dealing with today could be solved quite easily. >> rose: and andrey kostin he run thes the second largest bank in russian within it was not going to do the ang sangszs and we're not go asking to remove them. we expect that because sanctions, we could disagree with the sanctions, of course. we think it's a wrong use of international economic financial architect eurl infrastructure. but we think, we think that sanctions didn't never reach the goals. >> rose: bremmer, kasparov and kostin when we continue. funding for charlie rose is provided by the following: and
by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. >> from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: the international reactions to the attacks in paris continue, joining me is ian bremmer, he is the president and founder of eurasia group, a political risk consulting firm. i'm pleased to have him back at this table, welcome. >> charlie, thank you. >> rose: i think you have said that france was a soft target of isis. if there was to be a soft target of isis it would be france. >> it would. >> i hate to say this, but head and shoulders the biggest target. you and i have talked about this on your show. head and shoulders the biggest target is france. i think there are three reasons. one is eight percent of the
french population is muslim, by far the largest percentage in europe. and they're not integrated well into french society. a lot of young men, unemployed and living sort of in slums amongst themselves. secondly, the french national culture itself is by far the most secretary you lar/antireligious of the european states. and so as a consequence, they have a hard time engaging with muslims who want to be muslims but also want to be french. the third point is that, i mean, frankly both sarkozy and now president hollande have been much more assertive in their military engagements across the middle east and north african than the obama administration, certainly more so than any european state, they have been the ones out in front. >> rose: why is that? >> in part because they are-- there is a tolerance on the part of the french people that provides support for. the united states you frequently see backlash, in britain you see a lot of backlash.
in france, i mean after the qaddafi removal, the french, the popularity in france of that was quite high. hollande after mali where the french clearly took the lead in fighting islamic terrorism, hollande's profl went up. so this is an issue that the french people will rally around the president. but it also makes them a target internationally. and we've seen that not only in the attacks in paris but also, of course, in mali. >> rose: what is the debate, political debate in paris? >> well, i mean first of all, i would say that after these-- . >> rose: extreme right parties there. >> you certainly do. and you know, madame la pene and her front national party is polling over 30%. in a first round she would heads up do better in many polls against someone like sarkozy and that's new. >> rose: so they would put her
in a runoff. >> that would potentially put her in a runoff. >> rose: president hollande. >> which she wouldn't win. i don't think there was anyway she would become president. but it's kind of like talking about trump in the united states. the more popular he s the more other candidates have to align themselves with his agenda, with the topics that he finds most important. it means that economic reform is off the agenda in france. but also keep in mind, as much as hollande now is doing his damnedest to build security within france and also to take a leadership role in the region, even with the russians as need be, the fact is that this, these attacks came not only on his watch but on highest alerted, when they were aware they had these people on watch lists. and they had an extremely advanced surveillance law that was quite controversial when it was put in place back in may. and yet they were unable to prevent it. and sarkozy immediately played politics with that, saying they
should cancel the upcoming climate summit in paris, arguing that not enough had been done to moniter these 11,000 muslims that are on this watch list. and they should perhaps be under house arrest or have electronic bracelets. this is clearly becoming an incredibly devicive issue within france itself. >> rose: is there much talk about president obama's strategy against isis? >> yes, there is. and what they perceive to be an absence of strategy which i think is unfair. i have criticized the obama administration for not having a sweeping foreign policy strategy. but on syria i think the strategy has been very clear. which is obama sees syria as the slipperiest of global slopes and one that he doesn't want to get any steeper. he doesn't see any good options militarily for the u.s so he has tried to avoid getting sucked in as much as possible.
i think that is a strategy. it is not necessarily a strategy that is aligned with assad must go or isis must be destroyed. the aspirations of the policy. the real policy has been we don't see people that we can support and give weapons to and feel comfortable that they will stay in their hands, or that we know where they're going to fight. and we certainly don't see any utility to trying to prop up assad who has done more with his regime to lead to the refugee crisis that we presently have across the region and europe. >> rose: are they calling the first order of business to defeat assad? i thought the president had changed on that and said yes, we want him out but that's not our first priority. >> that's right. i would say in the past couple of months, since certainly since the russians decided they were going to take a leading role in military intervention in syria, the united states kind of backed off the assad must go now, and more the assad cannot be a part of the ongoing political process. but there is still a big gap between the americans and the
russians, a huge gap. >> is there any question around the world that russia has taken more of a leadership role in the united states and therefore that is not good for the future in terms of russia's relationship for the future and other places. >> i can't say it's good when putin shows up in tehran, meets with the supreme leader and they both say that the principal concern is that the united states is fostering policy that is against the interests of both those two countries in the region. i think that is a bad-- the idea that you are seeing an increasingly close lashup. >> rose: they have been not necessarily friendly. >> not at all, you mean the russians. >> rose: russians and iranians. >> no, historically the russians were, of course, part of the group that were supporting sanctions against iran. >> rose: and they helped them with new clear facilities. >> yes. the russians have been the most challenging of the p-5 plus one in the negotiations but ultimately they supported american sanctions. >> rose: so is this in the long-term interests of the united states or it might be a
huge problem that we are allowing those two to develop and strengthen their own relationship. >> the answer to that depends on how important you think the middle east, how critical an interest it is to america to continue to play a leadership role. >> rose: the president thinks not so. >> the president thinks less so. certainly energy prices being low, and potentially going lower still, the fact that we don't seem to need these countries as much as we used to. the fact that the american people are not supporting the kind of moreas that we got into in iraq and afghanistan. although the most recent polls now say 60% of americans now support boots on the ground in syria and iraq, just in the past couple of days. you know, we can be figure el around this one. suddenly when we see terrorist attacks. and god forbid we have something big in the united states, the potential for overreaction is absolutely there. >> rose: how bad is the russian economy. because the president has literally in an interview sort of was con temp yus of russia in syria, saying they're backing up, the popular dictator in an
arab states an they're doing this at the expense of an economy that is in terrible shape. >> there is a lot of hopeful-- in the united states against the russians. are ukraine, they are taking a piece of ukraine, it will be a disaster for them, a an excrimea, it will be a disaster, go into syria, it will be be a disaster, over the long-term there is no doubt the russian economy is in decline. they have a clept tok see they haven't reformd, a lot of capital flight. they have not been able to diversify their economy, fdi, nonstrategic investment in nonstrategic sectors is really low. but they've got big reserves. they've got enormous gee grask opportunities for the exploitation of mineral wealth. the northern sea route is going to be very advantageous to them and being able to drill and exploit there. the russians aren't going away any time soon. they are not under huge pressure economically. >> rose: on isis you said there are three strategies that could be taken. one is take the lead, u.s. take
the lead. two, u.s. partner with russian, three, stick with containment. which is the best? >> well, stick with containment is the one that we are probably doing, right. and i guess what i would say is those are military strategies. what i have seen in the past couple of weeks is that overwhelmingly isis blows something up and we're figuring out, we've got to bomb more or we have to do a no fly zone or maybe we need bootds on the ground. i haven't seen, especially when you look at the presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle. i've seen 95% of the conversations about that. a bunch of course being about refugees in the u.s. which is a complete canard. but very little talking about the root causes of isis and how you can address them. why aren't we following the money? right? these guys are running a state. one of the reasons-- . >> rose: they bombed some oil trucks the other day. >> yes, they did. >> rose: the other day. and why it took us that long to figure out that was a piece of what one would do to contain isis is a a little bit. >> because they fought for that,
the american military. >> the administration that is making the right decision. >> absolutely. >> now they were concerned about casualties, civilian casualties thark is a fair concern. but they got around it by saying well, we're going to make-- we'll have some scraping in advance an we'll let them know you have to get out. there are ways you can limit the casualties that will be taken. >> rose: so we need new rules of engagement. >> we need new rules of engagement and we need to focus on cutting off the sources of funding. and that's not-- okay, yes, they have oil. but they are also getting support from the region. and we can, if we pressed, with our gulf allies, if we pressed with interpoll, if we pressed with our own intelligence an surveillance, we can find this cash. we have to do a lot more. we also have to do more in-terms of the ideology, the fact is you have clerics in this part of the world that are in countries that
we support, that are proselytizing radical wahhabism, we can't allow that to persist. we have to push. >> rose: who is doing that? >> clerics with saudi arabia, clerics in qatar, clerics in other countries. >> rose: david petraeus was here and said when they have done to saudi arabia and say you have to do sex here is the evidence for wahhabism, and support for wahhabism to extend radical fundamental jihadism, that the saudis always respond. is that your impression? >> my impression is that right now the saudis are arguing that they are doing a lot in helping us in terms of their own military intervention in yemen. and they also have participated directly in our military actions in iraq. and they're saying that is how we are participating. secretary of defense ash carter said we need drk dsh the saudi, the gulf states aren't doing enough militarily. that may well be true but i think we need the saudis much more in terms of dealing with the money, dealing with the radicalism, and also providing opportunities for young men and women to have livelihoods. that is what they're not doing.
and you know, there is-- the fact is that isis has an ideology that is appealing to many young men and women. >> rose: there was a colume in "the new york times" by camille du ad who said. >> quite a piece, yeah. >> rose: daesh has a mother invasion of iraq and a father, saudi arabia and the industrial complex. until that point is understood, battles may be won but the war will be lost. jihadists will be killed only to be reborn again in future generations and raised on the same books. >> best op ed i've read in "the new york times," certainly in months. right on target. look, you look at isis leadership. and of course you're talking about former bawtists that had nowhere to go in iraq. disbanded, destroyed by the united states. u.s. gets out militarily. sunnies are losers in iraq. and you know, there are a lot-- . >> rose: and mall agoee wanted to make that point. >> absolutely there are sunnies on the ground living in mosu l
looking at isis saying jeez, it's a pretty conservative government. we don't stand for a lot of what they do. but they are at least fighting more us. >> rose: they are also committing enormous atrocities. >> they are committed by at lots of governments. >> rose: but they are much more visible in places like mosu l than this other places. >> from my perspective, your perspective. god forbid that we ever have to live under anything remotely that lives like that. but if you ask me in moss ul today. >> rose: are you saying that what isis does is not that much different from what other people do. >> no, what i'm saying if you go to moss ul today, you absolutely see a number of-- a decent swath of that population that is reasonably supportive of isis today. and i think that is a very serious problem. unlike al-qaeda, right. >> rose: what happens if the sunnies join in the balt el with the iraqi army and say we'll help overthrow isis an we'll retake mosu l. >> i would love to see that happen. and we have to make that credible. >> rose: that is really the critical point, isn't it? >> it really is. >> rose: where are the chinese in all of this. >> they are doing very well,
thank you very much. when i see gli jing ping, is he going around the world, writing checks, he would rather not be as much in the spotlight. we rather you not ask me where are the chinese. he would rather be quie elevator. i would like to be-- quiet. you have angela merkel going to the chinese saying help us with the refugees. we're not helping with the refugees. they're adding sport for peace keepers, for u.s. peace keepers. they are absolutely taking more responsibility for the international community than they used to. but the bar is like right here. it's from zero. china is overwhelm look-- overwhelmingly, china's concerns over the coming five or ten years are about domestic. the radical-- that is required to keep their economy. >> rose: their own political. >> political stability. in order to do that, what they will do in the international affairs will be very limited directly to supporting that.
they are not-- if the united states decides that we're going to continue to play a relatively limited role and be on the sidelines in many of the middle eastern conflicts, we will not find the chinese will enter that, not in the slight east. >> rose: always good to you have. ian bremmer, ian bremmer from the eurasia group, back in a moment, stay with us. >> rose: gary kasparov is here, a former world chess champion, considered by many to be the greatsest chess player of all time. he retired from professional chess in 2005 to lead the prodemocracy opposition group against putin. he also ran for president over russia in 2008. he currently serves as chairman of the human rights foundation. his latest book is on politics. st called winter is coming, why vladimir putin and the enemies of the free world must be stopped. i'm pleased to welcome gary kasparov back to this table. welcome. >> thank you very much. >> rose: so tell me what you hope to accomplish with this book. >> i wanted to discover the
history of the last 25 years, through stories. and one-story is the rise and fall of russian democracy from gosh chef, to putin invasion of ukraine and second one is my own per all perspective as a witness, and in many cases participate in these events and most relevant, is what-- they didn't do to prevent this unfortunate event from happening. >> rose: most important-- which events. >> the fall of russian democracy. because it affected, not only people in russia, not only former soviet union, the people in the former soviet union but also now it affects the whole world. and i have been analyzing the relations between post cold war russia with american administrations starting with bill clinton. actually with bush 41, because techically, it was a very short moment. and you know, it seems to be that, you know, the way russia had been treated is like a crazy uncle at thanksgiving dinner.
just don't mention democracy. don't mention human rights, don't pawk about things that could upset him. but unfortunately it created a sense of impunity. and looking back, you know, at the '90s, you know, we could actually see some turning points where many problems that we have been dealing with today could have been solved quite easily. like in 1-9d 95 bill clinton was the first president who raised the issue of iranian new clear program with bore is yell sin and at that time the yownted states and congress passed a resolution tieing the financial aid to russia with end of russia supply of new clear technology to iran. but clinton decided it was not relevant for national security. and just dropped it. >> rose: he and yet sin became sort of will pas, didn't they? >> yes, i think clinton didn't see russia as a problem at that time. and of course, you know, russia and yeltsin was some kind of democracy. of course corruption was there but corruption under yeltsin was
a problem. corruption under putin became a system. >> rose: why did yetin support-- yet sync sport putin to be his successor. >> i think yetsin and his family and i'm not mentioning all the relatives but those who were around yeltsin in this political cabinet of yeltsin, they looked for guarantees, for protection. and the power transition in russia was tricky because russia never experienced the peaceful transition. so that is why they look for someone who could be strong enough to secure their interests rans the perception of conventional wisdom is often said that putin had protectedded the former mayor of st. pettersberg. >> absolutely. putin was loyal. i think he still believes in loyalty as the number one attribute. >> yes, to serve the government and unfortunately, turned into a state where loyalty replaced
every other quality for the promotion. >> rose: why does he have an approval rating of 90%. >> how do you know what his approval rating is. >> rose: let's assume it's high. >> it's high, but because the moment you go to numbers like 80 and 90, you understand that for many people it is just, you know, it's a question they want to avoid. you cannot calculate the feel factor. >> many of those were responding to the anonymous calls that were being made. so he had have sov yent experience and telling the truth about the president, the general secretary, the leader, whoever, it is kind of risky. and many of them don't want to be bothered. >> rose: but also, it is strong support for the policies too, is there not. >> probably but we can go back and say that hitler was, you know, very popular in germany, too costly and check vak ya without a single shot being fired. so putin is seen by many in russia, and i'm not here to deny that he has firely definitely much high level support today
than obama here or any other western leader. but let's not forget t is a 24/7 prop gandar. the russia media is under total control of krem lynn so people simply cannot receive any sort of information about putin's actions and about legal situation of the world. and putin's propaganda machine is very powerful and very effective in presenting virtual reality. but going back and i guess this is something that i point out in book, is that what help putin in the beginning, it was the readiness of the leaders of the free world, starting with bush 43, to embrace him as an equal. and putin used it very effectively especially in 2006 when he was the host of the g-will meeting, of having all the leaders of the great democracies. and for russians who could watch it on television and know it was obvious that putin is a democratic leader. >> rose: but in addition to
all those kinds of issues and the russian economy and how russia had been defer stated by the fall of the soviet union, you had the reality that this is a country with a lot of new clear weapons which demand a certain level of respect, does it not? >> absolutely. but i don't want-- . >> rose: you have to deal with it. >> i don't want nukes to be the only reason for my country to be respected. >> rose: i understand that. >> it seems now putin new clear brinkmanship becomes a par a mount issue for russian foreign di plom see. it's terrible for russia because at one point we just have to realize that putin's interest today is contradicts the long-term interest of russia because he cares only about his own political survival. and he's willing to sacrifice the strategic interest of russia for generations to come. >> rose: can he stay in power as long as he wants to? >> he will stay in power not as long as he wants to. but because no dictator can
guarantee his survival on the infinite basis. he's not going to be removed from krem lynn. >> exactly, by an election, that is why you should look for other options. and again. >> rose: what is another option? >> all what happened. >> a revolution in russia. >> revolution, i think the combination-- . >> rose: what is yn uprising. >> because yeah, maybe, maybe you may call the revolution but basically you have millions and millions of people in russia that so far see no reason or little reason to rise because they believe putin was so lucky, in prevailing all of confidence he created that, you know, defending the rights against such a brutal regime could be very dangerous. you also have russian bureaucracy, russian olligarky. they are concerned about sanctions. they're concerned about isolation of russia but i don't
see it as the strong incentive to rise against dictator. i mean you rise, you fail, and you dead. but at one point, you know, the combination of the factors becomes irresistible even for dictate wore was so vigilant, you know, looking for every potential challenge to his power. and again, it happens, it happens all of a sudden. on sunday he has 90% approval rating. on monday he's in big trouble. >> nement sov, friend of yours. >> very clots. >> rose: what happened? >> he was gunned down in front of krem lynn. >> rose: on the bridge. >> yes, in front of the krem lynn gates. and-- it is so personal and so difficult for me just to talk about bore is because it was his advice, you know, that i followed in february 2013, early march 2013. i was traveling a broad and i received an invitation from
russian investigative committee to tell them about political activities of power position groups. and it ended up with a big trial where many of our clegs and i ended up behind bhars and bore is said, you enter the building as a witness. and if you leave the building of the investigators committee of russian federation, most likely you-- so stay away i couldn't believe that he didn't-- he hadn't followed his own advice. because he was, i think, the bravest of all of us. and he-- . >> rose: the bravest of all of you. >> yeah. and it was-- he was a big man. an imposing presence. and he couldn't help but, you know, blation putin on almost a daley basis. when he actually talked about yeltsin choice of selecting putin t was an hour before he was gunned down. and in russia, i mean, i understand that we don't have, you know, any, you know, con cleusive evidence.
but in putin's russia, i don't believe that anyone could go after bore is without at least, you know, having kind of a nod, do it. because regime reached the point-- . >> rose: who would have done it. >> vladimir putin. without his approval it cot no happen. >> rose: do you approve of what he is doing in syria? >> if you look at his interests as a dictator who needs to survive, he is doing the right things because he needs to create conflicts. he cannot compete. >> rose: to draw attention away from the russian economy. >> absolutely. it's dictators always have to come up with new items for his propaganda machine. and russian economy is in terrible shape. and it's go not going to be any better. i don't think we have to waste time discussing it. but his television succeeded in creating this virtual reality. and putin is always winning, you know, in his virtual reality he is a winner and syria is a very important area for his productivity. >> but do you believe that he has successfully so far thrust
himself on the world stage so that russia is now much more of a player than it was two years ago. >> the answer is of course russia is much, much, much bigger player today than two years ago. but it's not just because what putin did but because obama administration has created a massive vacuum and putin fueled this vacuum. >> rose: he saw it coming an stepped in. >> but again, obama's policy from the day he was elected first time was let's' bring our boys back home. so he didn't hide his intentions to remove america from this global leadership position. and putin saw the big opportunity in syria. because he, putin needed to prop up assad's regime. it's not only because assad's regime was soviet and then russian buying weapons but also kind of dictator brotherhood. he didn't want to see another dictator go down. also he's there with his new-- . >> rose: he had the appearance of a failed state too.
>> but this is the area where putin can exercise power because, you know, in international relations, you know, you have to also use soft power by making credible threats. and putin is very good making credible threats because everybody know is he if he points out at you or the city or the country, he could take it i mean he made so many brazen moves. and so far, you know, he's not punished for that and on the other side you can see americans walking away. >> rose: do you believe that, for example, here's president hollande saying let's have an alliance with russia. >> many people compare it to the alliance in world war ii with stalin. at least stalin had the same goal of destroying nazis. >> rose: that is what holland is saying. >> this is to the true. look at the facts. putin's bombed, nine out of ten bombs not dropped on isis, he had been destroying american.
>> if you were a leader of the united states would you make a pact that the u.s. made a pact with russia to defeat nazis. >> would you make a pack with russia to defeat isis. >> it is-- if you want to believe that putin is there to defeat isis you can make any pact you want. putin is there to exercise his own power and make more conflict. >> rose: suppose by making a deal with the united states and france, a cooperative deal against isis it helps him change the image of russia in the world. >> russia invaded crimea, eastern ukraine. putin cannot survive without new conflicts. will create more-- if you want middle east to be dominated by russia, and by the way, saudi arabia is very, very close there. and most of saudi arabian oil fields are in the territories pop lated by shia. look at the map. and israel is there. very close there. and russia and iran supporting hamas and hezbollah, terrorist organizations. >> rose: netanyahu went to moss cow. >> he had no choice, to talk to
russians since he saw americans leaving. america created this vacuum. and as long as america keeps walking back home, russia, iran and other dictators will be filling the vacuum. >> rose: putin this week is having meeting with the ayatollah in tehran. >> because they will talk about dividing the region. because right now we have two powers. regional power of iran and putin's forces-- . >> rose: wahhabi with the shia. >> exactly. because shia, shia could help him to create-- and again, as long as you are relying on putin, assad and tehran, will you not be able to beat isis because isis is sunnies. when sunnies could see that you are applying with their exi tension enemies, this war. >> rose: shia. >> just on a high note, so the good news is unlike in world war ii or cold war, the free world today has an overwhelming economic and military advantage. you don't nie putin to destroy
isis. you don't need putin to pass fie the region it is about political will which is not there, unfortunately. >> rose: are you admiring of what the president has done. because he is not sort of leapt in to form a reliance, an alliance with russia. you give the president credit for that? >> look. >> rose: or do you-- or do you find yourself more critical because he left a vacuum of leadership in your judgement in the middle east and putin found an opportunity to fill that vacuum and at the same time, rebuild a case for russia's relevance? >> president obama with his policy of leading from behind created this vacuum all over the place. and unfortunately, the next president of the united states would have-- it's a herculean past to repair the damage and restore the credibility of this office because in the relations with put in, iranians and others, you have to make credible threats. and so far if obama makes a
threat, nobody will listen. >> rose: what leaders do you admire the most today. >> the only leader in europe that i think has balls is chancellor angela merkel. >> rose: she is a leader. >> because she-- she maintains sanctions against putin's russia. i mean being pushed from both sides, german business on one side and donors of the party and the other side, the social democrats and the government who control foreign office. and without her, you know, europe would not be able to muster this call issue. but i think it's even she would not be able to hold it for long. as for the united states, i'm fairly pessimism so about the-- well,. >> rose: how about hillary clinton. >> she has a history.
and i don't know, you know, how she is going to overcome her failed policy as secretary of state vicea russia, this infamous-- the only candidate that leaves me some hope there is marco rubio. because is he keeps talking about the right things. but also i think it's because of his cuban rootds. he understands it. i remember when mitt romney said russia four years ago russia was the number one-- obama trashed him, romney backed up because he didn't believe in it it was more like a sound bite. at least i could hear in rubio's vice he believes what he is saying. but again, it's the republican primary is quite a dog fight so i don't know what happens. >> rose: explain to america the the relevance of chech that to any conversation about russia and vladimir putin in your judgement. >> you know, chechen region in russia and actually it's very difficult even to define the borders because you know there is some conflict there, so where
chech that begins and ends, it calls two big wars because central government, moss cow, yeltsin and putin they try to skew them. the result is that techically it is a part of the russian federation but many say that chechen won the war because what putin has been doing for years is simply paying ransom. billions of dollars to keep the region quiet and it's ruled by the son of the slained leader of chech that, and we know that russian laws are not functioning there. it's a mixture of the personal rule and the sharia law and unfortunately it spreads out because the whole region in north caucuses where where we have the highest birth rate in russia is fueled with radical is slammist ideas an many of them are fighting on the isis side. there was information that russian security of office provided many of the fighters
with documents to leave russian and to be able. >> but putin says he fears them returns. >> look, it's unfortunately it's-- as long as we have this problem unresolved in russia, this is the threat of islamic radicalism taking over the country, it is still there. and putin is not going to help us. by creating this other war in syria, he actually-- even the lukewarm islamic russia. >> to the memory of nemtsov an every person battling for freedom and democracy an to gloaee. >> that is my-- he wanted to mengsz family. >> made it all possible and to clia an rafah who make it all worth it. thank you. >> thank you, charlie. >> rose: back in a moment, stay with us. andrey kostin is here. chairman and president of
russia's second largest bank. russia had been the beared by economic sanctions imposed by the west in response to russia's annexation of crimea in march of 2014. persistently lower oil prices and other geo political risk pose severe risk. on thursday president putin will meet with the president of france hollande in moss cow to discuss opportunities for a united front against isis. isis took credit for downing a russian airliner over egypt's sinai peninsula last month killing all 224 passengers am i'm pleased to have him back at this table. welcome. >> hello. >> let's begin with something you know a lot about. which is the russian economy. assess where it is today. >> well, russian economy is in negative growth this year. but starting from next year, we expect economic growth and i think the economy is still
alive. after the first shock wave, of lower oil prices and sanctions and bad commodity prices for other russian commodities, and slower growth in china, all these affect the russian economy, i think now we, understand that the economy will be growing, show adjusted to new conditions and surviving. >> rose: but the decline of oil prices an expected decline in gas prices as well is the most severe threat to the russian economy? >> it is. but already next budget is based on the assumption that the oil prices will be around $50 per barrel. i think that say reasonable approach. and i think at this definitely of oil prices rather than can cope with the budgets spending and i think having maybe slight economic growth. >> rose: what is the most significant contributor to the russian economy other than energy? >> well, russia of course has other commodity, commodities
like metals, coal, and other commodities, also agriculture is showing quite healthy growth because of the call for sanctions which-- . >> rose: who had the sanctions hurt? >> well, sanctions definitely hurt russian banking secretarier including my bank. we-- . >> rose: just take your bank, for example, how did sanks hurt it? >> well, we don't have liquidity as much as we had in 2008, for example. but we are limited in international borrowing. but maybe more important, we are restricted from the international stock market. we are not selling more stocks. we can't privatize our bank any further. and that is the main inconvenience. >> rose: you can't any more. >> no, because it is forbidden for foreign investors to buy.
but we are-- we have a substantial-- on the government, and liquidity from the russian central bank. we don't experience a big problem now adays. >> rose: you have sufficient liquidity. >> we have sufficient liquidity it is not for us the ideal model for development, sanctions. but we used to it now. for us it is now what we call a new nor mallity. >> but some say that clearly eliminating the sanks is one of the primary objectives for the president. >> well, he never raises questions. i mean he's position is that it was not us going to do the sanctions. and we're not asking to remove them. so i think we expect that because sanctions, we could disagree with the sanctions, of course. we think it's a wrong use of international economic financial architectural infrastructure but we think that sanks didn't never
reached the goals. i mean it's impossible to force russia to change the course of the foreign policy. >> rose: the second largest bank in russia, you said were you hurt and you had to depend on the state and the central bank to-- provide liquidity. >> unfortunately, politics intervenes with business now adays. but that's not russian approach. we don't think it's correct approach. and most of the business and financial community in the west thinks the same. they should be separated. the politics and business should be separated and without political differences, that should be resolved by the governments, a separate issue, rather than using a financial and trade and other instruments to expert pressure it never works. >> rose: are there significant american investments in russia. >> not really. >> rose: i don't neen by the government but private enterprise? >> the american investor shows interest now in certain areas but of course relationship
between our countries are quite limited. though interesting in spite of sanctions, the share of russian-american trade in russia foreign trade is growing. mainly because it is a great degrees in our straight with europe. but probably that is a weak point. >> rose: so it's growing with china or whom? >> growing with china, yes. but of course in dollar terms, it fell down probably because of in general, i mean the general trade, because of the decrease in commodity prices. but in china, we have a big scope of relations. >> their demand for imports. >> is quite big. >> we find recently a big contract for oil & gas with china. so we have to expect a growing volume of trade with china in the next decade or so. >> rose: what is your assessment of the chinese
economy today? >> well, i mean from one hand, when we're talking about the slowdown or so of the chinese economy that is still five, six percent, that's quite a high growth. but i think that china still has a lot of problems of unreformed economy. they still lack domestic con suffer shun. >> they are trying to change that. >> they are trying to change it but i think they still have quite a number of important problems they should overcome. >> like what? >> well, like freezing domestic demand by actually having, for example, their financial sector, banking sect certificate very much, totally dominated by state banks. >> right. >> and unlike russians, actually, act in many ways on the political instructions and i think that she-- they took sometime too much risk and that lead to some big problems. >> rose: how much dom nation of the russian banks is there by the krem lynn? >> the krem lynn is not
dominating but more than 50% of the rurkan banking sector is the banks with government majority states. >> more than 50% of the banks in russia are owned by the government. >> 50% by the government. >> yeah. >> rose: that healthy? >> well, we were privatizing the banks, in my bank there is 40% belongs to the private investor. the largest bank, nearly 80%, 50%. close to 50%. so if the situation allows, i think there will be further-- of the russian banking secretarier. >> i asked president putin when i interviewed him in moss cow. >> that was very good. >> thank you. >> i asked him what he admired most about america. you know what he said, the innovation and creativity. >> that's true. >> i think americans are surprised that he said that. he did say it, that was clearly, he took, you know, he was fully aware of silicon valley and the
contribution of technology to the american productivity and american economy. >> uh-huh. >> there is no question there. but i am interested in understanding what is your spens of him? >> well, you heard gary kasparov who is a sworn enemy of vladimir putin. >> very emotional. >> yeah. but nemtsov was his best friend, a close friend, a close friend, you few him. >> i knew him for many years. >> rose: i ask you the same question wa, happened to him, do you think? >> well, it is a great tragedy. it's very bad for russian politics and i think it's bad for putin. and but by the way, mr. nemtsov was a very harmless person, i think he was he was not a person from shall bsh-- a person who tbrangly was veud as any threat to mr. putin's power. but of course, i have heard
mr. kasparov saying that russia had a brutal reg oom and coming back towsh to russia an calling for-- funny because brutal regime would ago differently toward mrs. kasparov. but he is, of course, in a position person and one can expect him to say such things. i think mr. putin is a person who really loves russia. he's really patriotic of russia and wants russia to be strong from economic point of view. once mentioned, one, two years ago mr. putin was named as the most powerful person in the world. >> rose: this year. >> it was previous occasion as well. and when he was asked about this, he said look, today the strength and power depends on economic strength and russia is not strong enough economicically, you know, to be moses powerful. so i think he is real statistics in understanding the role of russia but definitely wants russia to be powerful, and
respected. i think that is important. >> would you hope that every political leader would want that for his country, to be powerful, respected, to be creating economic sick sess towards people. >> but russia-- russian society probably was feeling a little bit differently because after the collapse of the soviet union which was a big, powerful country, at least how people saw t they said okay, we're leaving the-- society, the soviet union. probably we are quite poor, but we are a great power. simply-- the soviet union, russians never thought about like this. to a certain extent they were assimilated by being not so important nation. so putin reinstated this, that people started to think about russian. >> be proud of this country. for the first time, for many years people are really proud. >> and how did he achieve that? >> well, i think he is focusing
on a certain very important issues for russia. and i think he reinstated russia on the political arena as a country within independent foreign policy. i think that is important. and he showed us strongly. >> and do most russians, in the west the view is that the takeover of crimea even though president putin says there was a referendum, most people in the west view that as an illegal takeover of crimea and to take. >> i am not a legal expert. can i tell you, i've been spending my summer holidays in crimea since 2002. >> every year. >> and i can tell you that what peesm think in crimea. people really support it. that if you go to crimea, if you come to crimea, not people in the street, i am sure 90% of them felt that they did want it
theyer in wanted to be part of ukraine. they actually after the collapse of the soviet union they were protesting. and actually what ukraine did, they actually provided a lot of autonomy to crimea, actually, the cry mean leader was called the president, even, and then they removed all this later. but frankly speaking, crimea was 60% population being russian,nd never wanted to be part of ukraine. and they voted absolutely voluntarily to become part of russia. >> do you think that part of who drives president putin is wanting and demanding a kind of president for russia? that he clearly believes that after the decline of the soviet union and all the trouble russia went through, that the world had lost respect and he's determined to make sure that the world respects russia and that's part of what his political activities
about snr. >> but also i think that there should be some rules of the game in international politics. because before the collapse, when there was a soviet union there was a standoff between the soviet bloc and the western bloc. and there was some rules of the game. for example, the major decision had to be taken by the united stateses, unity council and since the collapse of the soviet union, i think we feel russia that they have to play their own game without asking anybody, without asking the united nations, without asking russia or any other, china or any other countries of the world. so i think what we feel, for example in syria, if united states can bond, and russia can do the same. unless we drop some new rules on the same, no country can do it, unless there is a consensus or agreement or for taking some contribution decision on such issues. >> what do you think putin
thinks about relationships with the united states in terms of cooperation in syria, in terms of being able to cooperate on a lot of big deals? >> i think the united states is very important for russia. russia always wanted to have good relationship with the united states. and we, i think it was quite sincere saying that he respects the united states and people and i think we do, we had to cut the rate because russia maybe not very strong economically but it's a big new clear power. if we want peace and stability in the world we have to talk to each other otherwise the world will not be a very safe place to live. >> how close are you to vladimir putin? >> well, i'm not among his friends, but-- you didn't grow up with him. >> no, i am moss could youite but i've been working, i know him for maybe now 17 years, probably. and as in russia when you are chairman of the largest bank you
visit the president and speak with him from time to time. so i mean he knows me very well, i know him very well. but my relationship limits to what i am doing. >> mainly about the economy about the economy, banking. >> and is he on record and said as other leaders have said that a country can't be a strong international player unless it has a strong economy. >> that's right. that's right. that is a large problem for us because we have-- we failed in many areas in converting the economy in what putin said, innovative economy. we have brains, we have people. >> rose: when you look back, and i will close on, this when you look back at the transition with the fall of the sov yent-- soviet union, and there was a real opportunity missed to help russia grow, was there not? i mean we had-- to help from
outside. >> yeah, with the rest of the world trying to help russia emerge from the collapse of the soviet empire, some argue that that was a real missed opportunity. >> we didn't expect any martial plan for russia, of course. but my personal opinion that on a person point, the west started to use too many politics in our economic relationship. this happens with eu, maybe america because unfortunately with america we don't have too much of economic relationship for a number of reasons. those are some companies working, i mean sti bank or coca cola, pepsi coal, they have quite a big operation in russia. >> pepsi coala got a head start. >> yes. but i mean, i think for pepsi it's the second largest market in the world if i'm not
mistaken. so i think first of all we should blame ourselve for missing opportunities, not outside world, of course. but i think sometimes we-- that is probably what the problem. >> is your bank the largest bank? that's what i thought. i thought i said first and i thought maybe i misunderstood. what is the largest bank in russia. >> it is the former savings bank of russia. >> what brings you to the united states? well, i was meeting with the chairman of some american bank this morning. and had a very fruitful discussions on joint operation and on general things like economy in russia. >> some of the things we've been talking about. >> yeah. i'm maintaining permanent contacts. we have extremely good relationship with united states. we feel it is important partners and i believe they will come where we have more business to
do together. >> thank you for coming. >> thank you very much. >> rose: thank you for joining us, see you next time. for more about this program and earlier episodes visit us online at pbs.organize and charlie rose.com captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org