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tv   PBS News Hour  PBS  November 8, 2016 5:00pm-9:01pm PST

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election day 2016, the historic end to a long campaign. >> hillary clinton's corruption is on a scale we have never seen before. >> who will voters elect as the next president of the united states. >> he thinks belittling women makes him a bigger man. he has shown us who he is, let us on tuesday show him who we are. >> when we win on november 8th, and elect a republican congress, we will be able to immediately repeal and replace obamacare. >> i will be a president for democrats, republicans and independentents. for those who vote for me and for those who vote against me. >> what wells will we learn from the voters? >> good evening, it is 8:00 p.m. eastern, 5:00 on the west coast
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and welcome to special pbs newshour coverage of election night 2016. i'm judy woodruff. >> and i'm hari sreenivasan. >> we look forward to her return as soon as possible. >> sreenivasan: polls just closed in alabama, connecticut, washington d.c., florida, illinois, maine, maryland, massachusetts, mississippi and mo. >> woodruff: polls have also just closed in new hampshire, new jersey, oklahoma, pennsylvania, rode island and the state of tennessee. we do have at least one projected winner. that's this washington d.c. with a three electoral votes. hillary clinton no surprise at all. a very very blue district of columbia. we also have a projected winner in delaware, hillary clinton the winner in that blue state. maryland with a 10 electoral votes hillary clinton projected the winner there.
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massachusetts, projected, hillary clinton projected the winner with 11 electoral votes expil thillinois the state clins vote 20 electoral votes she is also projected to be the winner there. >> sreenivasan: within the last hour or so we learned donald trump is the projected issue in west virginia with five electoral votes and indiana with 11 electoral votes, kentucky with eight ask we can report donald trump is the projected winner in south carolina with 89 electoral votes. >electoral -- 9 electoral votes. >> we have some ruts on the senate side. for those crucial senate seats that will determine the balance of power there. the democrats hoping to take control. the republicans doing everything they can to prevent that from happening. >> sreenivasan: there are a few house races we're keeping an eye on but at this hour it looks like republicans been poised to keep their majority. we're also watching a number of governor races plus a handful of
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ballot initiatives. in new hampshire, we've got a few other tapes that are probably going to cue u queue ur in the program. considering where we are right now just the number of states we have, mark shields, anything out of the ordinary. >> no. the blue wall is holding. delaware i think is the eighth best state for been barack obama, al gore's best state. so we're talking about states that were expected to vote democratic and have not disappointed hillary clinton tonight. in kentucky is a classic example of the democrats on coal and to be. all those good issues that have gone right to the heart of kentucky's existence. >> woodruff: also the first wave of states where the polls closed at 7:00, 7:30 seemed to favor the republicans just because of where they are, what they are.
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these we're seeing, we're now seeing states where the democrats have had. >> should be doing better that's exactly right. we're really going to wait on the big states we've been talking about for so long, north carolina, florida and ohio. virginia closed a little while ago, about an hour ago. i would expect to see we get those results in sometimes soon. those are going to be really the big states that we're waiting for that are going to tell us really the direction that this election is going in. the ones that we've announced so far, nothing out of the ordinary. >> woodruff: stuart stevens is something who was sitting with the mitt romney campaign four years ago. what is the campaign thinking at this point of the night when the predictable state results are coming in. you have more information than everybody else. >> the presidential candidates and the romney campaigns and the bush campaigns you have model counties you will be looking at for your numbers. usually you would have someone
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at those courthouses so they can get the numbers ahead of what was being put on the networks. actually now with twitter, you see where twitter can sometimes can do better than your own people. you have your modeling and you'll have certain votes, targets that you have to get in each of these areas and you'll know pretty quickly if you're hitting them or not. >> woodruff: not that youing nor these states reliably in your column anyways, you look at those numbers. >> particularly closest where you ran campaigns. look at connecticut, donald trump wins at connecticut. it will be very interesting to see those numbers there. they probably saw something and made you think they wanted to go there. if he does better there, that would be indicative. >> woodruff: here's another state we can call, this is a state that again no surprise. donald trump projected winner in mississippi with its six electoral votes. we're still waiting on, i guess we do have two other calls to make, oklahoma the sooner state
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and tennessee, the volunteer state. donald trump declared or projected to be the winner there. as we said a few minutes ago, hillary clinton projected to take delaware and rhode island. so we are beginning to get a picture from these early states that as amy just said the ones we're all waiting for sitting here talking about, we've been talking about for weeks, they're not in yet. >> sreenivasan: car nell belcher is the time when you were on the i don't know campaign is this -- on the obama campaign is this a good investment where you put your resources. >> yes. to that point the clinton people like what they're seeing and parts of pennsylvania right now another one of the blue states that trump has to take. he's got to take a blue state, right, another blue state out there. there's talk now and this will be amazing that the turnout in philadelphia may exceed 208 which is a record. so they have over 70% turnout.
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another thing the campaigns do they put rallies in places for protest. >> woodruff: not just a coincident. hillary clinton was there with jon bon jovi. david brooks, what are you looking@this hou at this early e night. >> what strikes me is the gender gap. gender gap in some places is just gigantic. in virginia for example, among women who are 53% of the electoral, clinton's winning by 19 points. among men trump is only winning by five. that's just a big number and it's hearted to see how he possibly wins virginia if these numbers are accurate. north carolina is a little different so she's winning among women by 14 and he's winning by men by 12 and north care looks to be a closer state. >> woodruff: what we're referring to are these exit polls, these interviews with voters that are done throughout the day as people leave their
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polling places. amy walter it's probably time for a quick refresher course how those things get put together and turned into a projection. >> it's always dangerous to take the first waves, these are polls that they get from going to specific precincts and they interview voters and then over the course of the night they actually put the data in, the real raw votes and that readjusts the number that you're seeing. now what the exit polls are supposed to do is give you sort of a guide map where it looks like this is going. some things could certainly change over the course of the night but it gives you a sense of the vote is really moving in a dramatic direction or not. so in many of these states you're seeing nothing that really sticks out particularly as except for as david pointed out in virginia where the gender gap is pretty substantial. >> and draw gillespie do any of
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these strikes you. >> this is lower than the normal gap, about 8 to 10 percentage points. that's striking because because of the hollywood tape and donald trump's treatment of women, that there would be more animo amongst female voters for donald trump and they would take that out in the polls. i'm not seeing that. the other thing that's jumping out to me are hillary clinton totals among african americans. they're not looking at turnout, they're looking at what voters are saying. we were expecting that she would get obama numbers of the african american voters. she's getting relative normal african american vote percentages relative to other democratic candidates. she's in the high 80's and low 90's. that is unusual. we'll see whether or not that holds over time. it doesn't look like she's getting in many cases 95% of the african american vote. >> woodruff: one state or a number of states. >> we have ohio, virginia, indiana here, where there's a
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large enough african american population. she's getting 90% of the black volt and not upwards. also the gender gap there which was present in 2012 as well. >> woodruff: mark slealdz, democrats -- shields democrats have counted heavily on the african american vote. >> they have. and as was pointed out earlier, it was the cataclysm of 1964 that led the democrats to become the party of african american voters. and that and the voting rights act ove of 1964. just in defense of exit polls. the reason why people like me chairish thecherish them is youo winner bias. you ask people who you voted foe last time. people say ordinarily they'll say i voted for the winnern't though they might not have. what you have is people who actually voted. you don't have a sample. we've got actual people just coming out fresh in their mind
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and they tell you and it is a great, if it is a representative sample, it is great great data to have. >> all right. we have some senate races to call at 11 minutes after 8:00 on the east coast in the state of florida, marco rubio has won re-election to another term. this is somebody who said he wasn't going to run. he ran for president but came back and changed his mind and said i am going to run again. and he's defeated the challenger democrat patrick murphy. in illinois the democrat tammy, the projected winner that is a pick up for the democrats. she took the state away from mark who was running for re-election. that's something we can talk about in a few minutes. mark experienced a stroke and was out of work for a year while he recoup rated and came back to run and he's now been defeated. in connecticut, richard blumenthal, the democrat is the projected winner. that mans he's won for a second
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term and in maryland democrat chris van hollen the projected winner that's filling the seats of one of the women in the united states senate barbara mick mull key the charge es female senator in the u.s. senate. we move on to oklahoma where we have another republican winner, james langford the projected winner winning another term defeating the democrat. so hari. >> sreenivasan: we're going to head up to new york city where clinton and trump have their election night headquarters. we're at the trump campaign event in midtown. john yang is with the clinton campaign at the jaft javitz. what's the mood now. >> we're in the political capital of the world in a moment. within a few blocks this is midtown manhattan on the west side. a few blocks from me is trump tower where donald trump is. we expect he will be coming over here sometime tonight. a few blocks in the other direction, john is with the
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hillary clinton gathering. right now it's fairly subdued here. there are a lot of people milling around behind me. this is a relatively small venue actually the smallest venue i think i've ever seen for this kind of gathering. it's subdued at the moment partly because of the size, partly because it's early but probably mostly perhaps for the reason you've all just been talking about is that so far what's been happening are the expected results. we've heard some applause at some of the early results at places like kentucky. obviously there's some pause because we're just getting something behind me. there's some pause at some of the states that have not been called early on like georgia, like virginia, like pennsylvania. people here that i'm talking to, continue to feel very confident that's what they're saying. the places they haven't called like virginia, pennsylvania, they have said from the beginning and they said to me even a little earlier today from the trump campaign, very
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challenging places. but they are hopeful sreenivasan sreenivasan is it trump supporters from new york or do you see people from around the country that showed up perhaps part of the organization throughout the campaign. >> well as i said, this is such a small place that this is a little unusual in that sense. this is an invited group of people. it's kind of an interesting change from the rallies around the country. i just came here from raleigh, north carolina and a rally in souix city iowa. of course donald trump had been going around gathering many thousands of people. the ones i was in was slightly smothered than that. this is a small venue, mostly invited guests. people from around the country, people from the campaign, people who have been involved. >> woodruff: it's interesting, jeff, they decided to call it a celebration. and as you said sort of deliberately chose a smaller venue rather than what you would normally see on an election
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night. we think back to grant park in chicago in 2008 with barack obama. this is not grant park it's not even where john is over at the javitz center not that far away. donald trump wanted a small venue. this is a very large new york hotel, a very large ball room. and anybody that's been to a conference of any size knows they can make the room any size they want. this was deliberatelyion to the size it is. i'm surrounded by hundreds of fellow journalists in the media, camera crews over where. you can see behind me several hundreds, hundreds, not thousands of trump supporters here behind me. >> woodruff: jeffrey brown holding down the fort at the trump party in new york city. we'll be coming back to you throughout the night. as jeff just mentioned, john yang is not too far away over the clinton headquarters.
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john, tell us about what's happening there. >> judy it sounds like it's a little more lively here. they are keeping up the energy, they're pumping in music, they're showing the network, a big cheer went up when one of the networks called illinois for hillary clinton. they're also showing hillary clinton campaign commercials on a big screen here. sort of the greatest hits of the campaign. that's also certainly keeping the energy level up here. they are also cheering as they see raw totals come in. they are keeping a very close eye on here is florida. the clinton campaign officials say they really don't see how donald trump could get to 270 without florida. and florida is a place they feel very good about from their field reports today and also last week they were bally hoeing the fact even before the election they
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had the turnout of latinos in early voting with already 30% higher than latino early voting in all of 2012. they like what they see coming out of north carolina. it sounds like a much different mood here at the javitz center. a big crowd, a lot of people here, a lot of staff come over from campaign headquarters across the river in brooklyn. campaign volunteers i've seen here who have seen in other states as we've traveled around. they seem to be anticipating a good outcome tonight. judy, hari. >> woodruff: throughout this campaign, donald trump has spoken a lot about the large crowds he has drawn in different parts of the country and the tens of thousands. hillary clinton doesn't seem, has drawn crowds that big. she did have 30,000 the other
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night. but in general, do the clinton people say because they haven't tried or they are defensive about it. what do they say. >> it wasn't until the closing days you saw that. even in the last week the crowds were not terribly large or enthusiastic. they were putting their emphasis into building a ground operation, getting the voters out, doing things so they could identify their voters and then track them to the polls. even today there was a rebound, having waived the volunteers, are going out in key states, knocking on doors to see if their vote was recorded yet. they were doing that as late as 5:00 in some key states. so that has been their emphasis really to try to build that ground operation to get the vote out. >> woodruff: all right, john yang at the clinton celebration
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location in new york city, in manhattan. we can hear the clinton crowd cheering behind you. we goods they are looking at some results on some of the television screens around the room. >> sreenivasan: we'll come back to you often john. thank you very much. we want to collect in at florida with adam smith. adam thanks for joining us. you were probably out there today taking a look at some of lines and what was hospitalling ahospital --happening at the po. what can you tell us. >> something unique about this election we've had so many votes come before election day. so the lines, we have some big lines but really it's two thirds of the vote was already in. the decision really the decision had ultimately been made before election day this time. >> sreenivasan: tell us about the iowa quarter. that seems to be crucial for both candidates if they want to win that state. >> historically it's south florida, your population areas, miami-dade, broward palm beach.
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the pan has not actual is the conservative republican area and then the corridor between kind of a fulcrum they battle on, the candidates. this time though the demographic shifts are such that the miami-dade, a big mar margin the with so many hispanic voters, puerto rico his tannics. breadth is doing reasonably well in parts of ta tampa bay where i am. >> woodruff: we were hearing a lot about it in florida it was much better than expected. what are you seeing? >> jaw yeah definitely much betr than expected. there's a big push in the tail end. the clinton complain really focused, they had a big operation all along that they really focused overwhelmingly miami-dade and the area around or ala alan land owe which has n
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exploding with puerto ricos. >> woodruff: can you compare to what you've seen in the past. >> obama did the same thing but especially miami-dade where you have this unusual situation with the could bee could cuban amerie historically been trending republican. i think the clinton goal was to get an even bigger margin in miami-dade than obama did. >> sreenivasan: is there something you saw in the last week or two about get out the vote effort on either side that stuck with you. >> it's been the ongoing story but the crowd seemed much more enthusiastic energetic big at the trump events than at the hillary events. but clearly barack obama doing to do value county, miami. one that looks good for leerk is do valu -- hillary is duval with
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black voters is much closer than any of us would have thought and that's a function of the clinton campaign doing a lot of push there. >> sreenivasan: adam, thank you. >> woodruff: adam thank you, it will be interesting to watch because florida is one of the ones we're waiting for to learn more about it. well now someone is joining us who is a senior advisor to the donald trump campaign. he's boris epstein. he's been with us on the newshour before. boris, welcome back. what are you hearing at this hour in the evening. it's 23 minutes after 8:00 in the east. what are you hearing that's good news and what are you hearing that worries you? >> florida's within about 2,000 votes right. they're looking at that pan handle of florida, very auntistic of florida. going up higher to north carolina and iowa. we still think our problem is the same what i just listed and
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nevada, new hampshire second or colorado. and then michigan. very excited very optimistic where we stand. >> sreenivasan: were you able to expand that map in the last few days. we sadi cisions to go to places like michigan. >> absolutely. there was a great decision. state of michigan is in play the first time since 1988as republican. i wish i could turn around and see what it is. >> woodruff: i'm hearing the call may have been the state of alabama for donald trump. that's a safe that's gone republican for a number of times but every victory counts. i want to ask you about the latino vote we were talking about adam smith in florida. any regrets on the part of donald trump, the people around
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him about his language, particularly early in the campaign but if the campaign wore on about latinos, about the wall. because there does now seem to be clearly to be a much much higher turnout in the latino community and it appears it may favor hillary clinton. >> no, there's no regrets. the latino community is very diverse. i know you have to look at puerto rico. we're very confident that mr. trump has run a great campaign. on illegal immigration he's been very strong because it secures our country and secures our borders and that's what americans want. and in the economy bringing back jobs. >> sreenivasan: the "wall street journal" said that mr. trump has written both a concession speech as well as an acceptance speech. >> i will leave for them to
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answer that. i'm confident winning this election and that's what we're focused on. >> so as the night goes on boris, what's the plan? will mr. trump come out? is there a time set? what do you think? >> we're watching the polls, watching the results. he will come out and tell voters -- >> woodruff: all right. boris epstein with the trump campaign. thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. have a great one. >> woodruff: we're now joined by christina shocky, she's a deputy communications director for the clinton complain. christina it's good to have you with us. thanks very much. what are you seeing. >> good to be here. >> woodruff: thank you. what are you seeing, what are you hearing that gives you reason to smile and what are you worried about. >> well first of all i'm smiling because you can sense the energy here at the javitz city in new york city. we have thousands of people
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pouring in for what we hope will be a celebration tonight for the first woman president of the united states. we felt very good coming into election day because of the work we did. hillary clinton just campaigned her heart out in these battle ground states. we have 43 million americans even voted before we got to the election day and we were seeing a good turnout for hillary in important states like florida, nevada and north carolina. we were feeling good coming into election day but we feel really good tonight with the results that we're already seeing in those crucial states sreenivasan sreenivasan is there something you're from the exit polls that your campaign has that gives you optimism in a state like florida that seems really close right now. >> yes. you know, in the really important counties where we really have to win by big numbers in orange county, we're doing really well. what we saw even coming into election day, if we're growing to see historic turnouts, they were voting even in the early votes double the rate that they
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were in 2012. and we know from our data that one third of those voters are first time voters. they didn't vote in the last election. so that really speaks to the registration that we ran in florida and the hard work we've been doing there to get out our supporters and it will really see that hillary has been connecting with the hillary coalition that is going to put her over the top today which is latinos, african american, islanders, millennials and suburban women who we think are coming together to give her that victory. >> woodruff: christina a lot of conversations in the last few days about the decision by the clinton campaign to send her to michigan a state that's gone blue for as long as many of us can remember. because donald trump seemed to be narrowing the gap there. just how close is michigan? how concerned are you about it? >> you know michigan was a state that we had hillary campaign in late because it's a game day state. all the voting happens on
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election other than other states. oh, i'm sorry i think we're good to do the national anthem so we probably have to take a pause here. >> woodruff: we'll forgive you that and we hope to have you back again soon. christina shocky with the clinton campaign. >> sreenivasan: let's turn to -- they are going to be digging deep into the down ballot race what's going on for control of the senate and the house. lisa. >> that's right. just up over to your side here we are looking at what i think what may be at least as important and what gets down in washington which is control of congress. we've had newspapers in the last hour. let's look at the graphic about control of the senate. democrats in order to take up control of the senate need four or five, they need to gain four or five seats. you see it on the graphic. they gained one so far. that's the illinois senate race. that's mark's seat right now with the associated press and we are projecting that will go with
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henry deductworth the democrat in that case. they have to pick up four or five that depends on whether democrats win the presidency. if they do they get a tie spraying tim kaine in the senate they only need four. but the fact we're talking about a democratic take over at all after eight years of an incumbent president is that remarkable. how heavy is this tonight for the democrats, how realistic. >> winning illinois was the easy one for democrats. if they didn't concede mark kirk they would have a terrible night. if you had told republicans early in the cycle when the polls closed illinois would go democratic but they would win ohio and florida, i think republicans would be estatic. but the matt is stil math matt r democrats to get control. we're waiting for new hampshire, missouri north carolina, indiana later tonight, nevada. those races are the ones that are going to decide the majority. >> that's what i like is that so much of the country have yet to come out with presidential
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votes. much of the country hasn't closed their polls. we're watching 11 key senate races and right now eight of those have closed. we just don't have results for all of them. so it's already a huge moment for watching control of the senate you mentioned florida. let's talk about that. marco rubio kept his seat. there are some notes in the past few months. i wasn't clear if they would. one interesting thing we heard from boris epstein as he talked to you, judy and hari is hispanics in florida. let's tank abou talk about that. we have miami-dade county. that's the green doubt. that's heavily cuban and there's a house race down there we'll be watching all night. look at the yellow dots in the center. that's the corridor. not just cuban but heavy puerto ricoian, different types of voting trends. marco rubio cuban hair continue has won the state -- heritage has won the state. we're not just watching the senate.
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some folks in washington will have a chip on their shoulders sometimes against the senate but all of you are lovers of the house of representatives this is for you. we are seeing some potential news in the house of representatives. there you see marco rubio right there, the race called for him over patrick murphy. and patrick murphy's seat now of course is in contention. he's left the house of representatives. there are two races that look like could go to democrats tonight. one is john mica, 24 year house veteran right now he's losing, is that right. >> john mica. this was a seat that really was late come ongoing to the landscape for democrats. the democrat stephanie murphy. john mica got caught in a couple different factors coming his way. courts ordered some of the florida districts to be redrawn so some of the territory is new to him. and i think he's had a tough i'm evolving his campaign to the 21st century. >> that's a nice way of putting that. >> we had it as tilting away from him by coming into tonight.
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if democrats win and defeat mica there are 29 more seats they have to get the majority. >> murphy is an interesting candidate. she immigrated with her parents from vietnam, escaped vietnam and came here. she became a national security analyst and now it looks like she's winning at the moment at least in that case. another one a name our viewers will be familiar with, one charlie crist. tell me what he's doing. >> charley chris almost tried to pull off a trifecta losing a senate race, a governor race and a house race but it looks like he's in the lead now. house of representatives is going to be amazing a former democratic governor but from a republican governor who lost as a democrat. there's actually a number of candidates who failed in gubernatorial races we're going to be entering the house. jamie cuomo in kentucky, jot angel -- >> in that charlie crist race
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he's running against an incumbent. that's not just about charlie crist that's interesting hari but it's also about donald trump. he's someone who disavowed donald trump but yet charlie crist tried again and again to tie him to donald trump. they think that's something that has been a problem for the incumbent republican. we'll watch throughout the night tonight. we go live, we go deep. it's a good night. judy, hari. >> woodruff: lisa. we will be coming back to you as often as we can through the night. and we do have some senate races now to call. results in the state of alabama, senator richard shelby is the projected winner there running re-election. in indiana, republican todd young win that open seat that means that seat stays republican. evan bayh a former senator he stepped down from the senate. said that he didn't want to fill anymore he thought congress wasn't working well, he didn't like being in congress anyone
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but he was persuaded by the leaders of the democratic party to go back and run and they thought that gave democrats a real shot. >> sreenivasan: $20 million spent on that. cornell belcher how important was that one trying to get those seats in the senate that lisa was talking about? >> i think that's a tough one for republicans. democrats clearly need to make some end roads here. you know right now i'm looking is new hampshire and pennsylvania. i think it was a tough you know. marco rubio one, as well. speaking of florida right now, going back to what they were talking about earlier, if you look earlier there, that electorate there looks a lot less white than it was. it's about six points less white and it's a little younger than it was early on. i think what you're seeing with the clinton campaign doing on the ground is certainly bearing out in some of the exit polls.
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>> woodruff: that's a big shift. >> i would say i'm looking at the county by county numbers in florida. and the democratic counties are more democrats and the republicans are slightly more republican which is the self polarization we were talking about earlier. in orange county which is the orlando area that's slightly more hillary than it was barack obama. and the contease a little further down pretty much further down was the same. in late county is more a republican county in that area. so it looks like there's polarization. but it looks a lot like four years ago basically. if trump's going to pull something off so far i don't see. >> that could be good news for hillary clinton. >> yes, we're still waiting it sounds like on some of the most populous of the counties in florida come in. broward county, miami-dade to come in. but this feels like i think david's exactly right. it feels like what we're seeing is the democratic areas becoming that much more democratic but the republican areas are holding
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strong and where they're not holding as strong we can see in some states at least in the exit polls in pennsylvania for example and north carolina where white women, he's not doing as well with those voters, not doing as well with suburban women voters, women with a college education in a place like pennsylvania and new hampshire. but in some of these southern states, florida, georgia, north carolina holding his own. trump's holding his own. >> in these packets and exit polls trump performs well among men and people without a college degree. >> that's going to have interesting consequences tonight and it looks like he's doing better in broward than i thought he was going to do. super tight. but the group of people who are decreasing in our demographics are high school less white voters, four percent less than four years. so that is a group that sure you want to win that group but you're sort of winning a
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percentage of customers that are declining. and it's an ominous time going forward. >> this narrative of this potentially being what we call a backlash election. in 2008 everyone talked about this is post racial, that race didn't matter anymore. there were a lot of people who were skeptical and rightfully so. we forgot moments of progress with moments of resistance and we've seen that redissance e marijuana especiall --emerge esd trump making those appeals. >> two television networks are now projecting that the house of representative will remain in republican control. i don't think anybody at this table, i'm looking around to see if anybody is expressing surprise. having registered this, andra, back to your point.
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>> the motion that those without college education are voting strongly trump. it's fine, it makes sense. it fits the populous tor ten owr campaign. what this says is the republican party as it's constructed right now. the republican party still has a lot of soul searching to do. >> at the point it does escort of shift around from the battle grounds right. so you would expect them to do better in ohio, right. you expect them to do better in new hampshire where you do have sort of that electorate that looks a lot whiter, little older and little less liberal. >> iowa. >> iowa but at the same time you see democrats making some gains further south. you see some of the map shifting. >> woodruff: we want to go to our news room where annual brangham has been -- annual wilm
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brake hubrake hum. >> we want to work out how real are these acquisitions, what's really going on out there. injury joined by jessica how how is -- who is looking out for these things. jessica, thank you very much for being here. i wur7b8d if you could tell us overall how is election day going so far. >> optally some of the polls are not closed especially on the west coast but so far everything is pretty boring out there which is good news for everyone i think. we were expecting i think a little bit more exsiemght today than we got but that's only good news. >> obviously it's nice to be bored on those particular things. one of the allegations we've been hearing in the months leading up to this election donald trump said this is going to be a rigged election and he's deputized some of his supporters to go out and watch polls and monitor and see if they can see anything funny going on. has any of that materialized as far as you can tell? >> not as far as we can tell.
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you know, it appears no organized campaign for voter intimidation or even obvious exit polling strategies. there were a few one off reports here and there of a trump supporter or just a generally boisterous person in front of a polling place making people feel uncomfortable. it doesn't look like those are organized or wide spread. really we're pleased that we didn't really see much voter intinl daiks at alintimidation s considered. >> in north carolina which is a crucial battle ground state, there has been real problems with the voting machines, with registration. i know the naacp and the clinton campaign asked that some polling stations be kept open later to allow voters who might have been blocked earlier to allow them to vote. what's the latest on what's happening down there. >> yes, those polling stations were kept open. there were a total of seven and they were kept open not very
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long between 15 and 45 minutes. they are all closed now and it was just to account for late start times because of issues with the electronic roll books at the very beginning. >> similarly we heard issues about voting irregularities in pennsylvania. i understand there was one video that went out of a voter showing he couldn't change his vote from trump back to clinton but this was kind of debunked. but there are other reports as well. can you bring us up to speed, what's hatching in pennsylvania specifically. >> there have been all sorts of allegations in pennsylvania not more than we were really expecting and not particularly wide spread despite what social media might have you believe. a few issues with polling booths that were pretty quickly fixed or were attributable to voter error. there were also a couple of boisterous demonstrations in front of polling places there but again these were all things we were expected especially in a place like philadelphia which had been kind of a hot bed for controversy in weeks leading up to the elections so nothing we
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were really surprised by and nothing that voters should really be concerned by all things considered. >> this is obviously the first election we've had in the presidential race since the supreme court changed major aspects of the voting rights law. and since that ruling by the supreme court, we've seen lots of states change their voter id rules and a lot of of the concern has been that those rules will disenfranchise voters. from your perspective, is there any way to know whether all these new voter id rules around the country have had any impact today. >> right. so you know, there are things that we'll be able to count when this vote is fully counted in the next couple days and all of the numbers are tallied, we'll know how many people cast provisional ballots in most states for example because they lack the proper id and how many of those were eventually rejected. one of the things we won't know is how many people did not show up to stroaft at all because they are concerned they might not have the right id. i was talking to an activist earlier today in wisconsin told me one of the confusing part of
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wisconsin's law is the dnv when you update your address does not issue you a new id like they do in most states so when you go to vote your address on your id does not actually need to match. it just has to be updated in the system. that's a really big miss understanding and some parts of wis conson so we'll never really know how many people chose not to voaft vot vote at all. there were similar places like texas and virginia. and texas especially where the law has changed so many times that people are confused by the it so they just choose not to stroat at all and that's something we're not going to be able to measure. >> jessica and electionwhrund thank you very much for being here. we'll go back down to the studio with judy and hari wound wood --
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>> woodruff: this is a critical swing state. we're joined now by valerie who covers the southeast for the "wall street journal." valerie, we rod it for the presidential house but there's a hot senate race and hot governor's race. but give us a sense tonight how it feels. i mean somebody whose watched the presidential candidates come through there so many times. what does it feel as they start to count the votes. what does it feel like. >> there's a lot of excitement here. i was already at the polls most of the day today. there's also a sense of readiness because you're right, we had donald trump here yesterday, hillary clinton doing a midnight rally here. and they both spent as much time here as anybody in the country. i think there's excitement but also it's time to count. >> sreenivasan: i was going to ask you. considering the closeness of minority votes there and how much it's mattered, the get out the vote efforts by the clinton
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complain in north carolina just in these last few days, how much of a difference has that made. >> well, i was out today at an aafrican american place today with folks there making sure they were counted and if they were at the wrong precinct to take them somewhere else. we were talking about north carolina where half a dozen precincts had some problems with registration. those are really important presince to the clinton complain. i looked at one that had 2400 voters and only 100 of those were republican. so it's been significant to the clinton complain but they watch very closely what's happening with get out the volt and then also the precincts they really care about are running well. >> woodruff: one of the other things we're watching and reporting in north carolina a few weeks ago is about this in particular. that is looking at women particularly college-educated women who did go nationally for mitt mit bmitt romney by severan
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the last election but they were reluctant to support donald trump. how do you see the gender divide and in particular if you put gender together with higher education. >> well judy i think what we're seeing play out tonight is in your big suburban and urban areas. you see big numbers, big numbers between donald trump and hillary clinton and in the governor's race between the republican incumbent pat mick youry and the democratic challenger. there are tens of thousands even a hundred thousand which is a significant amount, as much as a third or a quarter of the total vote that's expected. >> sreenivasan: is there something in the last couple weeks that caught your eye something that might be pivotal in how this is turn. right now it's still pretty close, it's within 2% of the
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votes that we have at 8:45 earn time. >> well i think a couple things on the state level one of the big animating dynamics here has been north carolina which is the transgender bathroom law that has been very unpopular with millenniums. at the polls today i talked to, you know, supposedly millennials were disengaged i didn't find that in my interviews, i found they were very animated coming out to express their displeasure with governor mccory from a special perspective. also an enthusiasm gap for hockey but a real desire to cast a vote against mr. trump. i things i heard repeatedly were house bill 2 on the state level and on the national level. >> woodruff: thank you very much. we'll be talking with you later. >> thank you. >> woodruff: hari as we come back to the table here, mark shields, i think one of the things we pick up as we talk
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about education, the education divide that we're starting to see in the american electorate this year. now we're waiting to see how it develops tonight. but this will be something new on the political landscape wouldn't it. >> it would be. i mean historically the college educated voters have supported republican candidates. bill clinton lost college-educated voters in 92 and one with white blue collar voters who didn't have a college education. that's where it was. there's no question but i think the question that remains is whether donald trump is generous, whether he's one off. i mean if republicans can come back and be competitive because these are people who i think the cultural and social issues have turned off them from republicans in many cases. so they have a challenge in trying to reengage them but it
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had been a natural fit for republicans over the generation. the comfort level has been with republicans. that was a fascinating report from north care care, north car. >> woodruff: is this the beginning of a trend. >> marco rubio is probably going to end up winning college-educated white voters. any time in politics it's about addition and you want to be better with the growing groups of people. this is a great demographic challenge republicans are faced with non-white voters. so more people are college educated than not college educated every election. so you need to be doing better with those people particularly if you're not doing well with non-white voters. i hope this is going to be a recognition with these voters to stay republican even though donald trump may have turned some of them off. >> sreenivasan: david brooks how significant do you think the
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gender bathroom issue in north carolina. would this be a referendum on the governor. the business community came out strongly against him over time. >> i think in the gubernatorial race, i don't think in the presidential race. i don't think this strikes me of the results, would i seeing the real results not exit polls is donald trump doesn't seem exceptional and he looks like a republican. for all the weirdness of the trump campaign when you're looking at the numbers he looks like a generic republican and he's doing better in some places because he looks like a jowrk republican than i -- generic republican than i would have expected and doing worse in other places. you still have to think she has an advantage but he looks like he's doing surprisingly well from my perspective given the way he's campaigned and the alleged lack of ground game and all that kind of stuff. he's doing pretty well. and so this is going to be a longer night than i would have anticipated. >> that's going to be one of the most remarkable pieces that come out and let's see where all the votes come in. but the fact that he is overperforming in some of these areas, in florida or virginia
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where he did not have the ground game. there was no data an liftics team. there was not the advertising rush. this is the organic vote that is coming out and supporting donald trump. and this would be i think that is another remark able part of this campaign how many rules he changed during this pain. >> i think the question that comes from this is one, what does it say about political consultants because every story we've heard in the past year that there are political consultants shaking in their boots because it's hard are forethem and the candidate. it becomes the question how do you build a party coalition. donald trump has been able to keep this coalition together but normally there are problems with this party coalition. you have a republican party who are now not well received by the base but they still need to be there. and then you have elements of
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bigotry that have resonated within the party, and that's not good for the health of the country. so how does the republican party bring all these people occipital and also bring -- and also bring them along to a better place. >> sreenivasan: are you quaking in your boots. >> listen i think we're going to have to see how this worst of works. the opposing pier has to do a lot of soul searching being able to reach out to a broader diverse country. about america, it's getting less white and that's going to continue for some time unless white people can figure out how to quit dying and that's unlikely. i think that is a moral imperative for the republican party but it's also a political imperative. >> woodruff: cornell belcher what donald trump is showing is we don't know how this night is going to turn out but what he's shoans the white vote if you will is not going away quietly. >> he's compounded it a lot. the interesting thing for
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republicans is this. you have allowed that vote that's more trump than it is republican, right. when you look and say that trump supporter is favorable to hiring the mitt romneys, right. what happens after election when they try to reestablish themselves with the republican party and continue to try to shun donald trump. right now i think you have a surge of voters right now that are more about romp than they are about the republican party. >> just a cautionary note to democrats at this point. the house of representatives they're now competitive in the senate race but they were expected to win. and so it's not exactly a time to uncork the champagne. donald trump who was supposed to be a man with a ceiling somewhere around 42%. at least my judgment and the judgment of people whose judgment i respect a lot more than mine seems to be exceeding that and is competitive in areas
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that we didn't expect. >> that has a big effect even if he goes on to lose we're not going to see a republican party run away from the platform he ran on and there's a big argument to say he loses. it's not going to be a blowout so he's going to lose close so therefore his style of republicanism will probably carry the day. >> the thing that's interesting about the house and senate, if you look at academic predictive models, they were actually predicting modest gains for democrats, not enough to win the house and maybe enough to tie in the senate. we'll see whether or not they'll hold. >> woodruff: we're going to take a break. we'll be back with more live coverage of this election on this special election 2016 full night of coverage. thank you, and we'll be right back. >> funding for this program has been provided by:
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possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> i'm william bang hum from the pbs newshour. i'm talking with jeff greenfield in our studio in new york and we want to look back at some of the key moments that had guided the direction of this campaign. from your perspective what are some of those moments that really stood out. >> more than five years before election night but one key moments happened in 2011 at the whitehouse correspondent's association dinner in washington when problem took deed aim at donald trump. -- dead aim at donald trump. >> donald trump is here tonight. i know that he's taken some flack lately but no one is
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happier, no one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter to rest than the donald. that's because we can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter. what really happened and where are begy and tupa. >> donald trump does not look happy in that video. i know there's a lot of people that have argued this was the genesis moment of donald trump's campaign. do you buy that theory. >> i do because i think one thing we see up to and including the debates when hillary clinton dated him is the rid cull, humiliation is a primal concern of donald trump. in a sense i believe that what happened that night with all of washington laughing at him may well have triggered the idea the one way i know i can make up for this is to do the impossible which is to roam, seek and maybe
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even win the presidency of the united states. >> trump has said over the years that he want to run and certainly surrounded himself with people who have argued drunld you should run. do you think there are other factors that might be pushing him to get into the race. >> it's very hard to say. there are people at the beginning who say this is an exercise in branding and those who think he never thought he would get this far. if you see how much donald trump believes in himself, then i think he thought he could be an effective president of the united states going back decades. it's just that this was the moment facing 16 other candidates when he made have instinctively realized this and the discontent of the republican electorate may be the time thate republican electorate, this may be the time i could do this. >> jeff greenfield. we'll be back with you later this evening and continuation of the presidential election will be going on here on pbs, stay
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tuned. o. >> woodruff: welcome back. leks night 2016. it is 9:00 on the east coast, 6:00 on the pacific coast. polls have just closed in 13 other states, colorado, kansas, minnesota, nebraska, new mexico, new york, north dakota, south dakota, texas, wisconsin and wyoming. >> at the end of the 8:00 hour the electoral college count as of now is 68. for hillary clinton.
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and 66 for donald trump. again, 270 is the magic number to get to the oval office. >> woodruff: and hari, where the states closed a couple of hours ago in virginia, too close to call, north carolina, the polls closed at 7:30 eastern too close to call and ohio and florida, be david brooks, that tells us, i think that tells us this maybe a long night. >> yes, seems like a panic of a week or two after comey then a lot of confidence polls are converging, four point lead, new york times upshot projections 83% be chance of winning, that's dropping. he's out performing the recent vibe, and so let's not say he's necessarily going to win but a longer night and a closer night than some of us thought. and i'm not sure why. i'm not sure where -- i think maybe more white voters, i'm not
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quite seeing where his vote is coming from. because she's doing well among the people she is expected to do well and some of the gender gaps are, good but in actual votes he's doing okay. >> andra gillespie, do we have to read tea leaves or wait for more numbers? >> we still have to wait for more numbers to come the in. some of these exit poms are very, very close. the gender gaps are not as big as we thought they were going to be. right now, hillary clinton is performing like an average democrat amongst african americans and almost an average democrat amongst latinos. but she's going to have to post bigger numbers in order to pull off decisive victories. >> woodruff: we are going to be projecting donald trump the winner in north dakota, three
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electoral votes, south dakota, another three electoral votes, to donald trump, wyoming, another three votes, reliably republican, nebraska, five more, the state of texas, jackpot so far this evening, 38 electoral votes the second largest in the country after california going to donald trump. >> we have some results with hillary clinton the projected winner in the state of new york with 29 electoral votes. that's all we have for hillary at the moment. as we get more information, we'll continue to interrupt and bring you as fast as we can. >> i think we can take a look at senate and house race he.
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lisa desjardins. no we can't. we are able through the exit polls, the interviews with voters, as they left polling places, to get an idea, how strong the turnout is for hillary clinton among traditionally democratic groups. >> what virginia is interesting to me, virginia is one that lyndon johnson carried ten times in a row very reliably republican, as jeff greenfield mentioned third time in a row was going to go democratic. and it appears, correct me if i'm wrong but it appears to be a real fight. in virginia. and it -- it is the state that i think was assumed for democrats. other than that, where trump is running up the score is in the plains states, where there are
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no people, and a lot of geography. i mean you can win the dakotas and wyoming, but it just doesn's the one big state that, with electoral votes, the second largest that is reliably red. >> woodruff: jeff greenfield is joining us at wne tferlt the pbs station there. jeff. gle. >yes, you know what may behappee right have been saying the right candidate can summon up these missing millions of white voters who haven't found a candidate that has spoken to them. that was ted cruz's presumption when he was running. now it's early in the evening but what we seem to be seeing in terms of trump's overperformance is that he may be redeeming this long-held dream of some conservatives. that he is bringing out voters,
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the very nature that has driven more moderate republicans away from him, may have triggered a sense of enthusiasm, that is producing this closer election than i think almost everybody in our neck of the woods assumed. it's a hypotheses, the votes are going to tell us this. you should not dismiss the possibility that trump has done something that certainly the conservatives have dreamt of forever. i throw that out for what it's worth. >> thanks to the modern technology, e-mailing with somebody, and we have been talking about this before this night about what 2004 felt like. if you remember the 2004 campaign, the kerry folks, the first iteration ever the superpac. they said we hit every single one of our targets, we're overperforming in x x x x.
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well election night came around and you overperformed in those categories but guess what, the bush campaign overperformed in areas you didn't expect them to do well. that's what tonight feels like. the facts that you have republican senators now, candidates for the senate winning, looks like some very competitive house races, in suburban districts that we have assumed republicans were going to have a very tough time holding onto, that republicans are holding on there. this is shaping up to be a -- at this point a much better night for republicans than i think even republicans expected. is. >> woodruff: this should be an interesting turn. we have another call to make. if we don't we'll keep talking here. here it is all right. in the state of arkansas donald trump the projected winner. hillary clinton was the first lady of the state of arkansas. her husband bill clinton was twice the governor. >> by a wide margin.
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>> woodruff: yes, i think it's still early in the evening but wouldn't be surprised if it's a pretty significant margin but over the time cornell belcher since bill clinton was governor arkansas has gotten redder. >> the encyclopedia, west virginia, arkansas, they are in the same vein where blue collar white states. conventional wisdom has set us up for this idea that hillary clinton was just going to run away with this. barack obama won florida by a hair, right? he won ohio by a hair. it's not like we -- and i think he ran a pretty good campaign. battle grounds they are so hard for another party to get a margin, it's a long night still to go but i'm not surprised at how tight it is right now. >> i thought it wouldn't be this
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tight but i mean can you imagine him getting to 270, trump getting to 270? i think you can begin to imagine how that is going to happen. if he can win north carolina, ohio and florida he gets close and then he needs to surprise us in some place and then if he's having a much better night than we think then michigan and minnesota look like place that could surprise us or wisconsin. i'm not sure it's going to happen but you can imagine. >> woodruff: because of what we see so far. andra. >> what we have seen so far and definitely early is there's been no surprises yet. so we have to wait to see whether or not something interesting happens in north carolina or florida or pennsylvania before i think we throw every model that we see out there out the window. right now it seems like conventionalism is holding. >> stuart stevens. >> i'm not a trump guy i don't find that encouraging. but i mean you have to give him credit.
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they are doing much better in florida than i would have thought. and it's going to of course florida is usually tight but we're going to have to see how this plays out. i mean we probably are headed to a recount in florida i would think, an automatic recount. >> woodruff: oh, we've never had one of those before! >> is katherine in the house? >> woodruff: the conversation we had around the table of the white vote that the republicans there is something that donald trump has tapped into that. >> i don't think it's encouraging. i think that donald trump ran a campaign that certainly doesn't have much to do with why i came into the republican party. i was a bush guy. and you know i felt comfortable standing in this race with the last two republican presidents and the last republican nominee. but i -- you know you have to give him credit for being able to turn out voters who i think are going to show -- haven't voted in a while. and those of us, and you know,
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i'm in that camp -- more voters are good. so if he's activated these people, i think you have to respect that, and acknowledge it. is. >> all right.we're going to want to check in with john yang at campaign headquarters. we are seeing very close race he in a few states. >> well i got to tell you hari as the race is getting closer in florida and north carolina the campaign folks are sort of disappearing from the floor. we were hoping to talk to some people in this hour. but we've now been told that they're unavailable, when they had previously said they would be available. so i think that there may be some nervousness, watching these, they were telling us they were confident, get out the vote operation, the early voting operation -- >> sreenivasan: hold on just a second, the state of connecticut is projected for hillary
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clinton, at 56% and 40% just very early in the night. john continue what you're saying. pdoi the game where they thought they might have something. but i think there seems to be some as i say they seem to have disappeared, they have been out here doing, talking to us and talking to television networks, but they seem to have gone back behind closed doors. i don't know what that means. but the raw vote numbers are getting tighter. the lead donald trump opening a lead in florida to a number of other states. so we'll have to see what that means, as the night goes on hari. >> sreenivasan: all right thank you john. >> woodruff: that's interesting that the clinton headquarters they are having a pow wopowz wowzpow would you op.
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>> sreenivasan: john do you see. >> the first chant of u.s.a, u.s.a, as the fox monitor shows a number of wins for donald trump. these are not surprise wins. we are hearing a little bit more of a buzz in the room. i think people that we've talked to as with john they're not talking so much anymore but they are still expressing their confidence that they were telling us about earlier. i want to inject one thing into the discussion that you all were having. because i get it here, but i got it even more out, a sense out on the road in the last few days in the places where i was spotted at campaign, this idea of the polarization that david was talking about kind much a tradition democrat-republican race that it looks like maybe we're seeing. a lot of the polarization being baked in. i heard this expression from some people i talked to in the last few days in north carolina
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in iowa and elsewhere that after all that's happened after all that we went through with whatever it is the fbi and donald trump on the bus and the video, that we went back and forth and we had a lot of shifts enthusiasm but a lot of what we're seeing now a lot of the support positives and negatives were there from the beginning. and i'm looking one thing at some of the exiting polling that we're seeing, pennsylvania for example, where both candidates were yesterday on the last day of the campaign, it said, 77% of the voters at -- in preliminary exit poll results said they made up their minds by cement. so i throw that out -- by september. so i throw that out to all of you back there in washington of what we're seeing there tonight. >> woodruff: thank you jeffrey brown and we'll be coming back to you throughout the night but jeffrey does raise a good point. exit polls are showing in pennsylvania and a number of states where people make up
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their minds well before election day and then there are others who are looking at it. here is an example of an exit poll. andra gillespie look at this, from pennsylvania. >> well it looks like hillary clinton is winning resoundingly amongst college educated white women and she's not winning amongst noncollege educated white women. her strategy was to reach out to college educated women, particularly in suburbs. it suggests she's competitive in the state. >> woodruff: all right we have senate races we're prepared to call in kansas, the republican jerry moran is projected to win reelection to the senate not a surprise there. in new york state, democrat chuck schumer wins as expected,
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democratic leader in the senate not too long, and in south dakota, john thune, who i believe seeking his third term winning reelection there. in arizona here is a race that probably was never in real doubt although john mccain has campaigned hard, he is the projected winner against his challenger ann kirkpatrick. >> how with zero percent showing, they can be projected? >> they are doing exit polls and precinct data. and they can tell you if the candidates are hitting the projected numbers they can then say, we feel confident and by the way, these decision desks at the networks and at the ap they are very serious about this. they spend a year putting these models together. and they do not hit send unless
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they feel 100% confident in the numbers they are seeing there. when it comes out very early it is usually in a state that is overwhelmingly red or overwhelmingly blue. but it is again, still quite remarkable that a state like virginia, that was considered a very, very safe state for hillary clinton, has still not been called yet. >> woodruff: and it's what, ning 15 in the east. almost two and a half hours since the polls closed in virginia and we continue to wait. we have been talking about the senate races, lisa desjardins is with nathan rothenberg. >> we have congress and lately the president may control more of the microphone, seems like congress is tracking the expertise of governance.
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democrats will take over the u.s. senate. they need four or 75 senate seats, depending on hillary clinton wins or not, four if she wins, five if she doesn't. out of those four or five seats that they need they have picked up one, that is tammy duckworth in illinois. not returning to the senate as expected we've said nathan but i want to look at the big races we are watching that have not been called and will probably determine the fate of the u.s. senate one of the state of missouri, what's going on there? >> so in missouri senator ray blount is up for reelection. donald trump is likely to win missouri but he is up, has been in office for a few decades, has a family of lobbyists, those are not popular items with american voters now. >> this was a surprise, not one ton list say a year ago. >> it was a late breaking race,
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i thought be roy blount might be vulnerable, but they are homing that donald trump actually pulse ray blount across the finish line rather than holding him down like we see in other states. >> comparing how donald trump has done with republicans in these states versus how the senate republicans have done with republicans, what do we know about roy blount and how about richard burrr another republican that is in the fight for his life. >> there is a lot of hand wringing about how republican down ballot candidates, would that have any impact on reliable voters, trump supporters saying, you didn't embrace him enough, i'm not going to support you. the exit polls, north carolina where richard burrr has not shied away from donald trump --
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>> just exainld for him last week. >> richard burrr is getting 95% of republicans. trump is getting 90% of republicans, ray blount getting 86% of republicans. i don't think that's because he's pushed trump aside. then in new hampshire where senator was supported and endorsed, then backed away after the access hollywood tape, donald trump getting 88% of republicans and cel yeah ayea getting 88%. >> 49%, 46%, that is a race we could be watching for quite some sometime now. 17% reporting now. to me this is one of the races that could decide what happens in the u.s. senate. i was listening what andrew was saying earlier, a gender gap, you don't see a gender gap in many of these presidential exit polls but one in new hampshire, i think has a big reflection on
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the kelly ayott race, how did women vote today for president? when you look at women and hillary clinton, hillary clinton won women in the state of new hampshire by a very large margin, 53% to 41%. now let's look at what happened in the senate race. maggie hasson the democrat how did she do with women in new hampshire, did she do better or worse than hillary clinton? she did better, she should more female supporters in the state than hillary clinton. what's interesting is ayott, a woman who has been a legislator and longer than not attorney general in her state, she did worse than donald trump with women in the state of connecticut. just by one point but to me that tells me that she has -- there's a very tremendous trump effect there and it is affecting women and a female candidate potentially in the state of new hampshire tonight. >> this is a state coming into
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tonight when you talk to party strategists, they had a feeling where the race would go but in new hampshire it is tied. i know that some outfits doing the modeling had it 50-50, 50.1 to 49.9. i think this is a long night as is the senate race. >> we have a senate race that is going to be called, state of georgia we have a projection, projection current republican incumbent johnny isaacson is going to keep his seat, not a shork, 33% reporting, more numbers that is zero percent. that is not a shock. what about the house, we're seeing something happen in new jersey, new jersey five, that is another important republican leader, the highest ranking republican in jeopardy, scott garrett, tell me what's happening there? >> republican senator scott garrett got himself in trouble because the reports about how he was upset with the national
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republican congressional committee the group that's in charge of reelecting house republicans for upset at the committee for supporting gay candidates. and that caused a whole fire storm, made it almost a national race, some of his donors pulled their support. he was in the bill clinton administration as a speech writer, he was able to raise money, looked like scott garrett might be okay because of the expensive new york city media market but house majority pac invested the money over the summer. as out of step with that north jersey district and the race isn't called yet i believe. but looks like scott garrett is in trouble. >> at this moment exactly. two long time republican leaders actually now in trouble tonight. we'll see if there's symbolic victories tonight for democrats in the house or if they make real gains. >> looks like the big numbers are not going to be there for house democrats. they're going to have to go to sleep tonight with these kind of
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specific members that they were focused on that they are going to get. >> all right judy hari we'll keep watching. >> woodruff: that is if they get any sleep at all. >> sreenivasan: new hampshire, james pindell with the globe. it's a very tight race. >> it is a very tight race, i've been talking to the war rooms, they have about half of the state in while obviously our reports coming in from the ap are quite behind that. it is still a very tight race for them. it's a fascinating thing owatch though in the stays is how class and how education have really sort of flipped the normal models you normally see when it comes to a traditional republican versus democratic presidential race. so you have towns in the northern part of the state or the central part of the state, some are mill towns some are manufacturing towns that have traditionally been pretty heavily democratic that have become more and more trump, in
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some cases he is winning these towns. however when you get closer to the mcht border and remember the border of -- massachusetts border to massachusetts is about half an hour it will well educated well paid individuals. these people have been the bedrock of the republican base in new hampshire. however this is where you go town by town by town. hillary clinton is doing better because she obviously does better among college educated whites. so the dynamic is flipping a little bit. but the bottom line is and you go all through these races, hillary clinton has a slight lead in the u.s. senate race, maggie hasson the democrat has a slight lead and there's a slight lead in the open race for governor for democrat. but it is really too tight for a lot of democrats right now and they are quite nervous even though they are cautiously optimistic. >> woodruff: james i've got to
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ask you about the money spent in the state of new hampshire. four electoral votes, the is last time i looked it was the second highest amount of money spent on a senate race there, the race between the incumbent republican kelly ayott and the signature governor maggie hasson. you do happen to be a state with a sitting presidential candidate and a senate race. >> the senate race is $110 million, the largest money spent on a race in new hampshire history. and to put that in the context, we are expecting a turnout of 738,000 voters and $110 million for one race not even including the presidential race. so people have been inundated, a lot of election fatigue, in new hampshire since we've been doing it for two years because of the presidential primary. but certainly you see these long
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lines in republican communities and democratic communities, people are ready to vote today. >> woodruff: i didn't do the math but i'm sure somebody has to figure out how much it was to vote. >> the relationship between kelly ayott and donald trump about. >> as we talked about earlier it's been extremely complicated. the last time that i can recall that they actually met in person was in the spring of 2015, there was a confab in nashua, but ever since then it's been complicated. she never endorsed anybody in the presidential primary. it was unclear what she would do. as nathan mentioned earlier her first position was she would support donald trump but not endorse him. if you could parse that, she was going to vote for him but not fully back him. after the access hollywood video came out the nation was back of watching what she would do.
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it's important, watershed moment the moment she officially divorced donald trump and said she would write in mike pence today for president. but it ends up not mattering that much. if you are a democrat, you thought it was fine or horrible, didn't really care, republican, she wasn't hurt that much, independents didn't really care but arguably we thought it would be one of the most important moments but navigating her position with trump has been extremely complicated. >> james pindem, reporting from new hampshire, for results we are still waiting to come through. james we're definitely coming back to you. it's getting close to ning 30 on the east coast, so we're watching for results coming in on the many, many states. half the country's polls have closed by now so we're looking for results to come in and we'll be reporting them as we are. besides the senate house and presidential race, we are waxing
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exactly 163 ballot measures that are on the ballot in many states around the country. our own william brangham and his team up in the newsroom have been tracking the most significant ones. william what do you see? >> hi judy. as you mentioned 163 ballot measures and initiatives being voted on all across the country today. and there's a dizzying array of issues they're covering, legalization of marijuana, citizens united, pharmaceutical drugs, a very, very big array wp i'm joined by daniel bush who has done a ton of reporting on this issue. first, marijuana, we have graphics. legalizing marijuana, five states, arizona, california, maine, nevada and massachusetts could legalize marijuana for anyone over 21. treat being it very much like alcohol. then on the issue of medical
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marijuana, there is four states, florida, north dakota, arkansas and montana they could also expand or legalize the use of marijuana for medical purposes. so daniel if these pass and again we don't know how all of these are going to do, this really so be a tidal shift in the country with regards to marijuana policy. >> that's right, william, and advocates say this is a tipping point if california and those other states do pass then a quarter of the nation could live in states where they could buy marijuana for recreational purples. the country could start shifting in that direction. >> what has been the argument that reform advocates have been make ugh why do they say we should legalize? >> it's a multipronged argument, they are start to be say an economic argument, saying this could grow the state's tax base, it could help with deficits, small emphasis owners to have
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regulatory certainty. that is the angle they are taking. it is saying it is working in some cases, in some of these states. >> let's look at some of the very, very big issues going on in these states, minimum wage, four different states, five states today are voting to change their minimum wage, main maine, south dakota, california, then on another issue with a lot of measures going on gun chrome, four states today are voting on some form of gun control, maine, nevada, washington and california. three of those would require background checks for all gun sales. california would require background checks for the purchase of ammunition. again, these are major issues. the thing that strikes me about these is it seems as if the states in all of their different measures are in a way responding to what they see as inaction by the federal government. is that how you see it? >> that's right and a lot of these situations whether we are
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looking at minimum wage or marijuana, or gun control, and you can see more of our coverage if you follow us online at we have all those issues there as well. these are states where voters are saying if congress isn't going to act on gun control they are going to take it into their own hands and we'll have to wait and see on the results tonight it's a little too early to tell what ends up happening. >> on some of these issues some of them seem partially symbolic, carbon tax, and citizens united. do you look at these initiatives and get a sense where the country is moving politically if you look at the whole nation? >> it is hard to tell. on the whole cycle, gun control for example, in this year we are seeing several liberal initiatives, an initiative that would ban high capacity ammunition, another that would institute background checks on
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ammunition. those are part of a wish list that the democrats have had for years they've had issues getting through congress. they are saying we want to move the ball forward and could put pressure on the congress to act. >> daniel bush, thank you we'll go back to the studio with judy and hari. >> woodruff: thank you very much. donald trump the projected winner in louisiana. let's talk about it. stuart stevens when is the last time the republicans democrats lost louisiana? >> jimmy carter. >> woodruff: got to go back to 1976. this is not a surprise? >> no, it's a very reliably republican state, jimmy carter the exception. >> woodruff: we have been listening very carefully to what william and daniel were saying.
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and at the same time we were looking at exit polls and david brooks you and mark have been whispering to each other. >> i want to put to rest the fact that joe college and betty coed are leaving college. in texas where the supposedly white college graduates were offended by donald trump's behavior, his language, his conduct, and everything else, the exit polls in texas among the white college graduates, 31% of voters in the state, 30% clinton, 63% trump. so i think republicans are voting republican, and is they overlooked a lot of what bothered then about donald trump. >> right now the s'futures
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elections are collapsing. it's a tossup election. seasonal of the women not going as big for clinton as we thought. new hampshire 53, michigan 53, for all the charges of harassment the tapes the misogyny, clear misogyny, maybe politics or ideology or class is topping gender. >> trump was not garnering more votes than barack obama, clinton gets 40% of the vote i'll be surprised. we can call it gender we can call it class i call it race right? we are polarized racially in this country. look, in martin talks about this, class has more white voters since lbj signed the
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civil rights act and realigned the parties. we are not winning more, actually less of them, more dependent on minority voters. >> you guys are writing notes on this side of the room too. >> one of the things we were paying attention to was the gender gap in michigan. so if these exit polls hold true, this is pretty good news for hillary clinton because now, we seed a double digit gender gap in the exit polls of michigan voters which is not something i would have expected. >> woodruff: in other words, hillary clinton doing better with women,. >> comparatively than some of the other states. >> woodruff: and how is donald trump doing with men? >> the gender gap is trump is predicted to get 55% of the vote of men compared to 39% for clinton. clinton getting 60% versus 34%. so it's relatively tied, it's still going to be close but we haven't seen that stark of a contrast, in the exit polls, it's really, really interesting. i'll be paying attention to that
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for the rest of the night. >> sreenivasan: i want to check in. final from ohio, karen kasler from ohio public media what have you seen today? >> early voting to clinton, seven or eight points and donald trump is closing in and in fact taking the lead. starting to lead in areas where we were expecting him to lead but she hillary clinton is not leading in the areas where barack obama led. he was leading in 17 counties and she is leading in 11 counties. where the early vote really mattered, there was a question about whether the early vote was going to be enough to surpass what would happen on election day. mitt romney won election day in 2012, though barack obama won the state. there was a question whether hillary clinton's lead coming into the had election day was enough to surpass donald trump in what his supporters and voters did today. >> woodruff: how surprised are
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you, and other reporters karen, that ohio is as tight as it is? is this exactly what you expected? >> it's exactly what most of us expected, absolutely. the polls have been very close for several weeks, even months now and, you know, ohio has always been a key swing astate, a bellweather state, if indeed ohio does pick a candidate that doesn't win, this is the first time since 1960 that would happen but i think all of us were expecting this. >> sreenivasan: karen from the voters that you have talked to how many of these are voting for their candidate versus against the other one? >> i think it's a 50-50 split, maybe more voting against than for. you hear a lot of the frustration among voters. this is where john cai kasich, e of those people were supportive of trump as a nominee of the republican party so there's been
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some tension between the trump campaign and the ohio republican party. that has trickled down to voters who have been struggling about what the choice to make here. of course there were democrats who crossed party lines to vote for kasich. there has been frustration all around here. >> woodruff: and karen, he ended up being the next to the last person to drop out before ted cruz, turning it over to trump. but how bitter are the feelings there in the republican party, not just between john kasich and the people who support donald trump but in the renal establishment overall? >> i think there is some bitterness. i think there were some folks who believed that the republican party should have stood more firmly behind donald trump. the chairman of the ohio republican party matt borges raised serious concerns over donald trump about but there was
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a long struggle that goes back to the rnc in cleveland which you may remember judy. so there's been some real tension there. i think there are republican voters who are trying to decide, they really like kasich and what he was talking about in the race but they are also struggling with donald trump is their nominee do they vote for him? >> woodruff: striking he didn't even show up at the republican convention. karen kasler, we will be checking in with you. stuart stevens, pick up on what she was saying about the four feelings inside the republican party in the aftermath of this campaign? >> well i think it's going to depend if donald trump wins or loses. clearly, donald trump is doing better than projected. i think that's going to give call it the trump element of the party more power going forward. if you take ohio, there's a state where both the republican senator in the end rob portman and the governor didn't endorse
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donald trump. if donald trump wins ohio that's going to mean a lot more than if he loses as far as power in the party going forward. >> woodruff: i guess rob portman it's right, david, this is an issue that every republican running this year had to deal with. were they going to embrace donald trump or not and they have all handled it differently. >> i don't know the verdict on that, kelly ayott, ago no, no am anonymity sure whether that was a good move. you have to feel that republicans in the senate have to feel pretty good, the odds are they have a very decent job of getting 50 senators, and some of the races that are still in north carolina and new hampshire and places like that are close but they picked up that big one in indiana. >> sreenivasan: that is population specific knowing whether you can actually
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convince your electorate to split tickets, versus my people are not going to go, they are going to go straight line. >> so far this is not a great night for splitting tickets. mark kirk in illinois was a republican in a democratic state. i can't think of right now somebody can correct me if i'm wrong, i can't think of a clear thing where florida marco rubio doing better but trump may be doing pretty well in florida. i can't think of a classic case tonight. >> woodruff: where somebody swung against. >> one reception might be among cuban american voters marco rubio, there maybe some who voted for hillary clinton but they also voted for marco rubio just based on the exit poll numbers. >> i would say two things. first of all, donald trump has not proofed t -- proved to be te albatross was suggested he would be for the republican candidates. and the irony is barack obama had 56% approval yesterday, in the gallup tracking poll, which is extraordinarily high for
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somebody. and especially high for him at this point. at a point where pat twomey in his last tv spot, barack obama embracing pat twomey, against joe manchun so they are sending all kinds of mixed messages, rather desirable constituencies in this case i think suburb voters in particularly women voters in the counties of of philadelphia. >> woodruff: jeff is joining us in new york, jeff chime in. >> well, 1992, the central theme of the campaign was exchange, versus more of the same. and i notice in donald trump's
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two minute closing ad that ran in all the sporting events, it is a call for change. it is deeply populace, about half of that speech, that ad could have been run by bernie sanders or elizabeth warren. you have been betrayed, the big shots the elites, the global financial empires, they have done this. they have deprivate you of your livelihood and i will make it better. let's be candid. i don'i don't think there is a n in a journalistic world that thought that donald trump had a chance to win this thing. we may have overlooked how powerful the change argument is, particularly running against a democratic candidate who whatever her assets is hard to run as a candidate of change, even if she is the first woman president. that dynamic may be explaining the shock weaches going through
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the political community right about now. >> you actually talked about one of those candidates jeff george right? >> in terms of the mcginity twomey thing. what i'm saying is what you are seeing is in a lot of states in the rural areas, a turnout that i think has surprised and baffled a lot of people and i'm suggesting that particularly for that constituency, the argument of change the argument that you've been left behind the argument that the people in charge of the system have not respected you and have not met your needs, play turn out to be a much more powerful force, than many of us, myself included, might have assumed. >> woodruff: jeff greenfield in new york, thank you and we will be coming back to you. right now, we want to go to the state of kansas to talk to the secretary of state, chris
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kobach, he is a supporter of donald trump and this is actually an opportune moment to speak to you mr. kobach. we are sitting around looking at how close these races are, in florida, north carolina, ohio. your state has already been called for donald trump. but what are you thinking as you see these other states come in close? >> i'm cautiously optimistic. one thing i look at is how trump is doing compared to how romney did against obama four years ago. so for example look at florida right now it shows trump up by last time i checked, 140,000 votes. romney lost by 70,000 votes. he is doing significantly better. the exit polling seems to be showing that late deciding voters are breaking towards trump significantly and look add pennsylvania, you guys are just
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talking about it, a month ago everybody thought pennsylvania was over, hillary had it by double digits now it's too close to call. all of those things together suggest to me that trump has a path to victory tonight if things hold. >> chris kobach, is there something that you saw in the voters, in your state that you think resonates with the rest of the country and what's propelling donald trump okeep this race this close? >> a couple of things. one is that, i think charisma matters, no matter whether you are talking about a conservative, a liberal, a populist, some may dislike him, some may really like him. that has helped him a lot both in the primary and the general cycle. the outsider, it is time for a change as mr. greenfield was mentioned earlier, that is a
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powerful message. one other thing in the deeply conservative parts of the country you have a lot of voters and conservative places like pennsylvania voters who really think that the constitution is on the brink and that the country is sliding towards a state it can never recover from. those voters i think are turning out in higher numbers than were expected and they would have turned out probably for any republican candidate but trump is benefiting from those voters as well. a lot of the polls are showing they were off the mark. >> woodruff: chris kolbach, we are asking you, donald trump's appeal he is clearly doing well with white voters, having a harder time with minorities, with african americans, with latino vote, of course we are still waiting to see what the final results are. how do you think about that? as an issue for your party, what it says about whether donald trump wins or loses this year?
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>> well, you know, it's interesting looking not just at this election but maybe the last five or six presidential elections. the democratic party has really solidified its hold on certain nonwhite racial groups, expressly bidding to those groups, saying we the democratic party are protecting your entity as a racial group. the republican party has never really made appeals like that. it's made broad appeals to the general population, these are principles you should identify with. and i think we're seeing over time that the democrats have successfully locked in a large number of people in some of those minority racial groups. so i don't think it's a trump thing. i think it's a republican-democrat thing and it's been going on for quite some time now. >> woodruff: so are you saying that democrats have been -- have been hypocritical, have been pandering, what are you saying the democrats have done? >> not hypocritical but it's
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more of a pandering. it's more of a you should vote for us because of your racial group and because we the democrat party will do a better job of protecting your interests defined not as an american but your interests defined as a member of this racial group and they've been very successful at that. now i think we republicans often hope that well our general message to the broad public will appeal and it will overcome that very specific message that the democrats have delivered. but in election after election, that hasn't happened. >> woodruff: all right, chris kalbach secretary of state for kansas we thank you very much for talking with us. and i think interesting there, at the end, andra gillespie, to hear the perception of somebody who's clearly republican, clearly supporting donald trump saying the democrats have done something that helps them some of the time but doesn't help them all of the time. >> the frame was very interesting in that, suggesting
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that the democrats took minority groups captive, doesn't suggest that minority voters have agency picking parties that would better represent their interest. that's something very interesting. a lot of the literature says, minorities are not in love with the democratic party but they feel that the policy interests that are represented by the democratic party platform better align with their interests than the republican party's and that's likely to be the case for the near future. >> sreenivasan: can i jump in here really quickly? that was an astonishing conversation with me when anyone in the history of american politics would know of this thing called a southern strategy which was a blatant sort of call to racial animosity that atwater in his brilliance although diabolical the chair of the republican party a couple of years apologized for. so i think that is some revisionism that i find very interesting. i have to push back on that.
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>> woodruff: mark shields. >> i think to deny the southern strategy is to deny history. there was a conscious contempt. all one has to do is look at the vote in 1968, george wallace, carrying six southern states, five southern states, and his vote from 1968 to richard nixon's in 1972 and that's what richard nixon got in 1972. and it's now both the fortress of the republican party, the south, and it's the liability, it's what makes the republican party a problem in competing, in large swaths of the post of the country. i don't think there's any argument, that the democrats have made a conscious effort at identifies voters by ethnic and racial groups and appealing to them on those grounds. i mean that's true. >> one, it's the southern
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strategy with the southern strategy. even in this campaign, the bigotry was not hidden. donald trump wanted to ban muslims and he said these things about mexicans and rapists and all that, it was not hidden, there is clearly a racial element in this election, what we're seeing tonight, i'm looking at michigan now, trump can a lot better than mitt romney did because of white voters. i still resist story line, the largely racial story but the reporting we've all done over the last many months talking to trump supporters there is a lot of egg legitimate desire for change, legitimate fed up with the establishments, lot of legitimate reasons why people voted for this guy and i'd hate it to be reduced just to race although clearly there is a racial element. >> look at the national exit polls, hillary clinton looks like she's underperforming in
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the first cut of exit polls, relative to barack obama but donald trump is performing slightly worse than mitt rom any did in 2012. what the difference is, voling for one of the third party candidates or perhaps they are not giving an answer. they may not have votein the presidential race and they may have voted down ballot. that is important to point out. trump may be doing 1 percentage point bernltd mitt rom any did but did not make inroads against minority populations. >> woodruff: i was going to say go ahead. >> before this election, along white voters, without a college degree, the biggest margins that we'd seen with ronald reagan and his blow-out election in 1984 he won white noncollege voters with 66%. if you look in some of these early exit polls i'm looking at florida he's winning, trump with white noncollege voters 64%, 66% of be white noncollege voters in
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michigan so he's hidden those record number levels even as the percent of white noncollege voters has declined, so this is i think explaining the tightness here, it's that we talked at the very beginning of the show about the fact that the percent of the electorate that's college educated has been increasing, what he has done is not increased that vote but he's outperformed almost any candidate sings ronald reagan. >> woodruff: something we have not talked about at all is the third party candidates. as this race gets closer stuart stevens, they showed jill stein 2%, gary johnson 5% in many of the polls coming into election day. >> it was difficult to fathom who were growing the most from. one poll showed it hurt clinton more, one showed it hurt trump more. you have to look at the final margins in virginia and the
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final margins in florida. it could be in virginia that the mcmulen vote is going to be a significant factor actually, if you think they would go to trump otherwise. but third parties are you know they're -- they're sort of a safe harbor in troubled times often. >> sreenivasan: david, you mentioned the s&p futures, down 3.3% and the dow futures are down 450 and 500 points. >> the big business. >> woodruff: we're searching for aterm to describe the democrats. all right, well, we've got a lot to talk about. third parties, we've just raised it in the last few minutes. certainly as we closer to 10:00 on the east coast, 7:00 p.m. on the west coast, we have got more polls closing hari at the top of this hour. >> sreenivasan: we need to take a short break stay with us for a little modifier pbs stations we'll be back now
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reporting on local races we'll be back at the top of the hour when more state polls close and more results are expected. stay with
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sooner rather than later when you think of your loved one, it brings a smile to your lips before it brings a tear to your eyes. well, where the bidens are fortunately i believe we're out of time. the time necessary to mount a winning campaign for the nomination. >> jeff, let's say things worked out differently, biden had decided to step into the race how would things in your mind have shaken out differently? >> i'm kind of -- i've written a few books. one thing that occurs lot of people say well if biden had won we have -- wouldn't have had clinton's liabilities. go back to the primary if primary entered the race he and hillary clinton would have split a less progressive vote and bernie sanders might well have emerged in the primaries with the most delegates. you can't say if biden would have run he'd be the next president you have to take into account all the other factors
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that weigh in a campaign. biden candidacy would have produced nomination or biden election whole nomination process would have been turned on its head. >> as you say, bernie sanders came in really galvanized certain slice of the democratic vote. do you think biden would have truncated some of bernie's 'kneel would he have taken some that have for himself? >> i think bernie sanders was his own candidate. the arguments he was making about inequality, about unfairness, was also aimed to some extent at the establishment of the democratic party and very hard to see joe biden eight years as vice president and decades as senator as not part of the establishment. i think it would have been a very tough road for candidacy of joe biden. >> jeff greenfield, thank you very much. our continuing coverage of the presidential election will continue in a moment.
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>> woodruff: welcome back to our special pbs "newshour" coverage of election night 2016 i'm judy woodruff. >> sreenivasan: i'm hari sreenivasan. poles have closed in five additional states that's arizona, iowa, montana, nevada and utah. at this hour here is the electoral college count as it stands. donald trump currently has 137 and hillary clinton is at 104. 270 is the magic number that they have to reach. >> woodruff: and we are -- we've been saying, last few hours with close friends here at
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the table. amy walter, andra gillespie. mark shields, david brooks, cornell. we've been saying that night is going on longer and more -- keeping us in suspense. we're not able to call a winner yet. >> i think concession is good for the soul. >> woodruff: you were saying before we went to the break that you're looking at -- people are i think looked at some of the early exit polls and drawing conclusions how much better donald trump is doing. than he was expected to. before we talk about that we have a result. >> looks like we have mob ton, projected -- montana win there are is donald trump, no surprise. >> woodruff: you see zero percent of the votes have been counted that's because exit polls have been done that make the prognosticators, projectors, and for other news organizations
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makes them confident. besides the fact that an day and stuart stevens montana has gone republican for along time there was no reason to think it wouldn't. as we were saying, a little bit earlier. the exit polls are showing some surprising strengths for donald trump. in some places. it's still early in the evening. >> still early in the evening. i think that strength is that he's performing relatively close to where mitt p. especially among minority voters. where we see the surprise not just along racial but age categories that people who are indicating that they voted for third party candidate or who didn't provide an answer to the presidential vote question. bigger than we would have thought that they would have been. hillary clinton is underperforming it looks like it may be at the expense of those who opted to go third party route. >> or decided to leave it blank. >> leave it blank. >> woodruff: what does that tell us? >> you know, you wonder about couple of things.
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one, the assumption that has been made for the last couple of weeks, you saw in all the modeling that came out, percent chance of hillary clinton from 98% to 70%. and whether this was based on faulty polling, going to definitely be a question. we'll be asking ourselves. the second is did it send a signal especially to voters who were never particularly excited about hillary clinton, she's going to win anyway, you know what, i'm just going to check the box for third party candidate. and we're spreeing that in some of the national polls here this is exit polls, again, going to continue to be updated but fact that she's just not getting the margins among younger voters, not getting margins we would have thought she would have seen among latino voters, 65% is impressive number but it is not in the 70-80% category that based on what you'd be hearing from nevada and florida and expecting. i'm talking about the percent of the vote that she would be
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getting. >> david brooks, the notion of these voters to leave it blank that's their protest in itself. >> it could be. certainly could be. this is just bigger swing. i've spent the year looking at projection models, 83-90% that she's going to win remind me never to do that again. that was stupid waste of time. we'll talk to them. have my office is disturbingly near them. a great job. not realizing my -- i'm not looking at michigan, i'm hitting refresh on michigan, i do think -- dash this is something the national journal wrote which was, we've all focused on the swing states, supposed swing states, virginia which looks like she's going to go okay in. north carolina, the florida, maybe trump can pull sort of a
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back door and get her soft under belly which is michigan and wisconsin now michigan looks very much in place, stay obama won like -- >> let's look at -- i wanted to hear from you. can we look at some of those numbers coming in from the states where the polls have been closed for a little while can we look what the numbers are. with whatever percent of the vote is in, david is checking michigan i'm interested in michigan, wisconsin, some of the other states where the polls have closed. we're not ready to project a winner might give us some sense -- >> let's be clear that the path now runs through michigan. pennsylvania and nevada she's got to have virginia. we start doing electoral map right now if he takes one of those, done. >> woodruff: state that we can all for hillary clinton, is that right? the state of new mexico. let's she what we have here. all right. land of enchantment. new mexico going for hillary clinton. not a surprise.
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this was a state she was expected to win. >> but trump made a late play in with the hopes that gary johnson would pull enough of the vote away. that is state that until recently, by recently meaning this was very competitive state. the fact that she put that one in her column is good news. i think david is exactly right. at the very beginning of this election, the whole mantra for donald trump was could he make a break in these states. what was of going to bust through? no effort was ever made to actually register, turn out voters in places like michigan, lot of time in pennsylvania. the fact that michigan on our list right now, this late in the game is quite remarkable. >> she has done more to protect that area. this is the point -- >> right. >> it does say there's something about the appeal of donald trump that doesn't require people
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going out and getting people to -- >> and trade. trade was a big deal. >> trade was a big deal. but let's be honest. we talk about the diminishing white noncollege, we're talking two out of five voters in the country. we're surprised that hillary clinton isn't getting 90% of the african american vote, 75% latino vote. this is a group that really is for first time in recent memory voting in a self conscious bloc. i think it's fair to say. we talk about the diminishing size of the constituent see. democrats have made great efforts at the lgbtq community. they have been prideful about it, active about it, visible about it. 5%. 5% of the electorate. this is 40%. i think it's fair to say that
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while the face of that group had been norma rae in american cull tray under norman lear it became archie bunker. they were treated with little disdain and disrespect i don't think there's any question that donald trump tapped into it. >> >> woodruff: we can pick up on that. i think -- >> another call that we can make at this point. i think this is state of missouri. is going to go in donald trump's column. at 60%. is that expected, stuart stevens? >> yes. i think -- >> sreenivasan: also looks like another call. the iowa senate chuck grassley no surprise. i think actually those numbers were -- anyway. projection is also in the utah senate, mike lee, one of the people that came in on the tea party wave. and let's head out to clinton headquarters john yang out there. john, you know, our guest pool has evaporated from the folks that we've been trying to line
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up in the clinton exam top show up. what have you got? >> i'm sorry, we're here with former governor of michigan. your state has been big in this campaign last couple of days. hillary clinton went -- president obama went back. what is going on in your state right now? >> well, i do think this there is very real economic anxiety that is reflected in many other states, too. but particularly acute in michigan. so, trump's message about trade resonated. her message about trade also. a similar message. unless they create jobs in america that was really powerful message for michigan. i think michigan is going to be very close but i think in the end it will go to her. in fact one of the newspapers, the free press, called it for her already tonight. we'll see whether that pans out.
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bottom line michigan is always -- let me just say, i was democratic governor but i had republican house, republican senate, republican supreme court, republican attorney general, republican secretary of state. everybody assumes democratic states in presidential years. but not always true. been divided state. >> a lot of talk also in the closing days of the campaign about black turn out. of the african american vote. what are you hearing about the turn out in wayne countyish detroit? >> i think as we always -- there was a bit of rain today. detroit vote is not as high as we want. here is where i think she may have made it up is in the latino vote which 5% of our population is latino. and in the arab american vote which there is 300,000 arab americans in the wayne county area. they came out overwhelmingly for her her. may have been offset.
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the lower turn out. we'll see how it comes out. >> it was not an early vote state, there was not lot of candidate time until the very last weekend. >> you always wish if you're in that state you want them there all the time. you'd love to have that happen. but realistically, clinton team had very shrewd plan which is they were going to spend time 23489 early vote states when that counted votes in state where there's game day vote meaning they didn't have early votes when that counted that's why you saw her in new hampshire and pennsylvania and michigan at the very end. that's true with the trump team, too. you can only spend so much your -- i'll say this, in michigan, we also had some hints because we had early -- had absentee voting which came in which is -- we had a 50,000 vote margin on the democratic side
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for those absentee votes. there was a sense that there was banking of the votes. we'll see what the end turns out. it will be close. ultimately i think she'll win. >> you don't sound terribly confident. >> you know, if the free press called it, to me that is -- they know michigan really well. i feel very good about that. >> governor jennifer gramhold is op toe municipals particular. that expects it to be very close. back to you in the studio. >> woodruff: thank you, john. and thanks to governor granhold you grabbed her at the right moment. we were just talking about michigan when she appeared there at clinton headquarters. now, let's turn to our jeffrey brown, he is at trump headquarters in midtown manhattan at the hilton hotel. jeff, mr. trump is keeping it close, that has to inject a little energy into the crowd l. >> absolutely it has, here. i was going to tell you just as
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we were coming, it quiet the down a little bit. certainly the energy level has raised when we were talking an hour ago. room has filled up. it's a much more loud and talkative and paying attention to all of these races. interestingly enough, as the incomplete results that we're seeing because so many of the races are so tied. but as results are shown, this crowd cheers because that means, that's very good for this hall to see how close, how competitive and increasing possibility that mr. trump will win some of these key races. i should say that this crowd is largely an overwhelmingly a white crowd. it is a well healed crowd or well turned out for tonight. i've asked some people, are you surprised to see what is going on they say, no. but that shows confidence they have. the largest boos i can tell you
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of the night were when new york was called for hillary clinton, we're in new york after all. loudest boo of all when senator chuck schumer was called, not a popular powerful democratic senator here. i asked when official, trump officials about some of the key races they still say that they are feeling good about ohio and florida. and i was able to ask about georgia, why it still hasn't been called because that one surprised me a little bit. he said, georgia will be fine. that's the feeling i'm getting here still. a cautious optimism but certainly more energy and more confidence than we were feeling earlier in the evening. >> woodruff: jeff, we're just glad that you are able to get close enough to some of the people there in the audience. we know both of these campaigns like to keep the press away sometimes from --
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>> it's absolutely. the press is kept away, same as rally, very hard -- one little area you can get to mingle a little bit. but it's not easy. i was telling you earlier in the evening so packed in here, it's not your typical event where you can mingle all that much. we do the best we can. >> woodruff: jeffrey brown, thank you, we'll be back to you. >> sreenivasan: we've got senate race to call in north carolina where incumbent richard burv projected winner. this house speaker paul ryan came tout to speak, let's take a quick listen if we have that videotape cued up. >> you've heard me say this before i'm fifth generation native of this town, i've lived mere almost my entire life. i've known most of you for years if not decades. we have grown up together. we share this community together. it's a great place. in a wonderful state in the best country god ever created.
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[ applause ] and i am so eager to get back to work for you, to get on with fixing our country's problems, we have so much potential in this country, so much potential. and if we can just have it, that's what's ahead. by some accounts i just been sitting there watching the polls, some accounts this could be really good night for ameri america. this could be good night for us. fingers crossed. like you, i'm eager to watch, lot of races, we want to watch ron johnson's race, all the others. that's a race we want to watch. like you i'm eager to watch the rest. evening. i'm eager to enjoy this evening with you so thank you so much for coming out. god bless you all. appreciate it. [ applause ] thank you, everyone. >> woodruff: republican speaker the house paul ryan talking to his supporters in
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wisconsin, he comfortably won his reelection, celebrating the fact that i guess all the news organizations projected that the republicans will keep control of the house. stuart steveings, we also just before we went to paul ryan projected that richard burr will hang on to his senate seat in north carolina winning second term. that was one democrats spent lot of effort in to, thought this they might be able to turn that blue. >> i think the republican senatorial committee deserves a lot of credit for standing behind these candidates, really running, i think, since i've seen since i've been dealing witness. lot of controversial because they spent early in these races. and they couldn't be there, most of them, with the amount of money that they spent earlier. but i think it was smart strategy at the time. it kept people in the race.
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really i think those guys were having a big night. >> woodruff: democrats thought debra ross was a lawyer, former director for the aclu in the state of north carolina had very appealing scanned daylight she led by a little bit part of the time. amy walter, the race has gone back and forth. >> actually, it was a surprise that she had gotten that close. democrats had hoped to have more high profile candidate. she was not their top pick. they were actually quite surprised how close this race was. in part because richard burr had decided to wait until basically last noint start campaigning, he says, start campaigning until after labor day it looks like he was correct. there were lot of republicans who were frustrated, we had so to spend way too much money in the race. key have put this one away. but most important thing about north carolina race is that now it's not taking democratic chances for winning the senate off the table. but it's coming really close.
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we are now closer to a 50-50 senate. if not republicans holding on. >> sreenivasan: all right. a little bit of talk that texas may turn blue this election, a shade of purpose, emily from the texas tribune joins us. what are we seeing? >> well, we aren't seeing very much purple, very red state. texas has been called red for donald trump. what we are seeing is a smaller margin than usual, right now trump up by six or seven percentage points in texas. that is basically a 20-year record. we haven't seen numbers that close with democrats and republicans in two decades. much closer race than usual, certainly red state. >> woodruff: emily ramshaw, we know that democrats have pointed at texas not this they predicted to win but this is a state with the rising latina vote, some african american vote, frankly enough well educated white voters who may
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have -- democratic party may be able to appeal to them. but the republicans can't count on texas forever. >> you know, democrats keep saying that i think they were hopeful they might real surge to the polls this year, the sleeping giant of the latino voting population. we are seeing down ballot races, some republican latinos in the legislature, and a congressman whose race is tight. there will be repercussions given how close the trump-clinton race is. >> sreenivasan: in the lines today, if you see this urge of latino voters who showed up same day? >> it's hard to determine yet if there's going to be record turn out. we know that early voting turn out was high, particularly among latino and other minority voters. still too early to tell here tonight. we are seeingçó very long lines, some concerns about voter i.d. ruling here. even one person arrested for trying to vote twice. we have seen some voting issues here today but probably not out of line compared to some other
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states. >> woodruff: emily, pointing out again texas second most populous state in the country of course one of the senators from the state of texas, ted cruz, was the last challenger to donald trump to drop out. i think lot of people are expect that he would like to run for president again. he hasn't said that. any repercussions from the tension between two of them? there was question whether he was going to show up at the republican convention, did he. he didn't say donald trump's name, i guess he reluctantly finally said his name this week. but it's been -- not been closest relationship. >> no. ted cruz was out on the campaign trail this past week with pence trying to sort of help the ticket at the very bitter end here. even out on the road with pence he hardly referred to donald trump by name. i think there's still some bad blood there. cruz has a little bit of relationship building to do, we'll see how the night turns out but may have very big relationship building to do. >> sreenivasan: any of the other issues that drove texas
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voters to the polls? mostly about presidential race? >> absolutely about presidential race. we've had lot of challenges here with voter i.d. legislation, that was overturned, there has been a question in the courts. that drove lot of folks to the polls. really you saw latino voting population along the border in el paso that was mobilized by some of donald trump's verb i can't think around immigration issues. >> woodruff: emily ramshaw reporting from the -- from texas, texas tribune editor, thank you very much. >> happy to be here. >> sreenivasan: head over to lisa desjardins on where we are in the all important race foreseen at. >> that's right. where we are is that the critical hour i think for whether democrats will control the united states senate or not. as amy walter was just talking about, the richard burr is retaining his seat is very big deal for republicans. >> i don't think -- the story of
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the night is presidential race donald trump getting as close as what he is. but that republicans have chance to retain majority is huge. they started this cycle defending 24 seats compared to ten for democrats now we're hat the point of the night where we have five outstanding races -- new hampshire, ohio, pennsylvania, nevada and wisconsin. if donald trump is elected president, democrats need to win all five of those for majority. if hillary clinton is elected, democrats need to win four out of five for control. the path is there, because of north carolina it's gotten significantly more narrow. >> we've talked so much about donald trump needed to run a table but right now senate democrats have to run a table. and let's talk about one of those races that is going to be key, wisconsin. take look what's going on this is ron johnson's race you heard speaker ryan talk about this in his remarks that he's watching this race very closely. this is one that i think fair to
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say, democrats have counted as being in the bags. let's look at the results for the wisconsin senate race we're seeing in results over the wires are that they actually ron johnson ahead at this moment. these numbers important to stay, this is 42% reporting, we have not seen all of dane county where madison is, a big liberal area of the state. all that have has not come in 30% has. milwaukee has come in. image in a world where also ron johnson stays in office. >> actually nathan toss back because we've got some news. >> woodruff: sorry to interrupt we have call to make in the all important state of ohio. that is donald trump is projected winner as you can see right now not all the votes are in. but it has been expected that trump would win this is -- you have to say, david brooks, democrats were hoping they could pull it out, hillary clinton spent lot of time there.
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especially earlier on in this race. they may not need it to win but sure would have been nice for the democrats. >> yeah. obviously was l swing state. because it's a more right state industrial state. have to look at the map that we're looking at right now and think that the economic anxiety jennifer talked about this earlier that republican arguments on trade and immigration and deindustrialization arguments were dominant. that's where he's doing well. >> no republican has ever been elected without carrying ohio. only two democrats have won white house without carrying ohio. roosevelt and john ken door. in 1944 the republican senator was the republican candidate for vice president. i think it is -- it's significant. just makes it that much harder. i think it becomes steeper climb
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for clinton. michigan is a different case because michigan had voted within 1% of the country in the three elections prior to 1992. it was almost narrow metric. then became three to four percent more democratic than the rest of the country did. it was uncontested in '12, just lay down case for barack obama. so that is -- michigan i think is the sleeper, no doubt that the efforts were -- late efforts were real. they were not just illusionary that they had to go in there make an effort. i'd say that to me real surprise of the evening. >> woodruff: another state to call right now this is one we've been waiting for. hillary clinton winner in the state of virginia. she's projected the winner. this one, amy walter, took a lot longer than i think some people thought it would. >> it did.
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although i am reminded, i should do this every year, go back remember how long some of these states take northern virginia is notoriously slow at getting the returns in. so when northern virginia came in, this again it is a more diverse part of the state. lot of white educated voters put her over the top. what we have mr. close election. she has not lost any states she was supposed -- quote, spotted to win, virginia, new mexico. but she did not quinn ohio which we had assumed she was going to. and florida sit too close to call. all of these were fitting into what we had as projects. real question now as mark pointed out, the michigan, the pennsylvania, those are states that we considered while not safe for hillary clinton not as stave as virginia or new mexico we had them slightly to her advantage. >> woodruff: we wait, florida, we await north carolina. those are states that again as i
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understand it she doesn't have to win those in order to pull off victory but it will certainly make it light more comfortable. >> sreenivasan: the national happen up there explains the 122-168 that is standing at this point. 10:30 east coast time. this is how the map is shaping up while she still wait. i had a question for stuart stevens, as we saw paul ryan give his acceptance speech there, the potential of a presidency with donald trump, this relationship with he and trump, had ha public falling o out. he went out said my first priority house stays republican, got that mission accomplished might have to work with a person who he doesn't seem to respect very much. >> it's incredibly difficult situation. having worked with speaker ryan in the romney campaign, i think that donald trump would be, as he has said least likely favorite candidate to win republican nomination. then the presidency.
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it's a very difficult situation, difficult for the party he's going forward. i was wrong about how trump would do. i thought he would be doing much worse. i wouldn't want to project how that would work out. one thing, this may be a situation, mark shields can speak to this, the vp pick made a difference in winning a state. because with virginia as tight as it is, it seems you have to come to the conclusion without kaine might have lost it. >> i think there are two things to go there. as somebody who grew up in the richmond area, tim kaine is great. also you keep in mind the governor is very good friends with bill and hillary clinton. it would be really hard to separate which was which. the reality is, richmond going to go democratic.
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the county which is increasingly more diverse. so it's not surprising that the area kaine is known best went democratic. >> just to show just a difference in the state and again to highlight the challenges for both of these candidates, hillary clinton did nine points better than barack obama in arlington county which is heavily democratic area. we're in it right now. buchanan county which is more rural county that is much smaller but she did 13 points worse. and buchanan county, by the way, percent of the electorate that is white has a college degree is 9%. >> woodruff: that means hillary clinton the white former first lady is not doing as well. >> as doing as well in these rural parts of the state. that much worse than barack obama did. >> woodruff: cornell we're
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talking about breaking the election tort up into pieces in parts. but as the night goes along, it's inevitable we're looking at women, looking at whites, blacks, education, less education. >> i think -- by the way, the clinton campaign -- i wasn't going to believe that. >> woodruff: we weren't going to let you do that. >> but you're right. virginia and sister states, north carolina, begin to resemble each other you look at the triangle there in north carolina does it look to look more like northern virginia and tide water also very key there. coming in there, it is one of the states getting more educated and less white and we are holding on to those. >> woodruff: we're going to now go back to the trump head quarters in new york city to former republican congressman
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jack kingston from georgia. hello, former congressman we don't have presidential call yet in georgia is that a little bit surprising? >> well, i think it's going to get there sooner than later. but with georgia we've felt we're -- i tell what you is going to -- i don't know if your camera picks it up. the enthusiasm of this crowd here tonight. they're all waking "make america great again" hats. i guess along campaign trail. >> sreenivasan: wanted to ask you, is there something that you saw in the georgia electorate over the past few weeks and months that you thought resonated with other voters around the country on why they would support donald trump? >> you know, i think a lot of it
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is the change, after a president has been in office eight years people want to do something different. hillary clinton was basically running on a third term which she did not separate herself from barack obama. owes specially this last week or two. i think part is just that urge for change. but i think also when donald trump laid out his agenda consistently whether it was immigration, security, building a wall, obamacare, renegotiating trade agreements, talking about more conservative judges, energy, infrastructure, lower taxes. i think those are the things that people started saying, you know what, that is different, that is new, i want to do that. hillary clinton is excellent candidate as you know, but still can't tell you five things she stands for you. donald trump it does come
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quickly. it's obamacare. the wall. it's taxes. it is energy, regulatory reform. i think that really makes a difference for undecided voter that he becomes less of unknown quantity. less of gamble when he talks about a platform. that would be true for any candidate. >> woodruff: do you think this there is one issue that overrode the others whether it's trade, immigration, that you think touched voters most deeply when think think about donald trump this year? >> yes, i think it is. i think that issue of health care. when barack obama says average family would save $2500 on health care premium and keep their own doctors and families found out that was not the case, that you have premiums did in fact go up, of course georgia probably about 20% increase but north carolina 40%. pennsylvania 53%. arizona 116%.ç$@&c @&c
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i think that is an issue that was less discussed in public on tv but probably more discussed at the kitchen table made big difference in the voting booth. >> sreenivasan: i was wondering, is there something that you're hearing from the people that are in that crowd tonight that makes you think that a trump presidency is actually likely? it's not out of the realm of possibility, that there is a path to 270 there are states that perhaps surge of support for donald trump has showed up tonight? >> yes. we've always known that if we do well in florida and north carolina and ohio and georgia, arizona and utah along with the other republican states we'll be at 253 bee have to have michigan and pennsylvania and colorado second district of maine if we get to that magic 250 number, then we have couple of different
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pathways. i think what people are seeing is even in virginia which we lost we only have lost it by a little bit. that tim kaine's home state. we weren't ever really planning on it. it was a pleasant surprise just to be competitive there. and one thing about this election they are national. you might lose california but if you keep the margin low you are going to do better in other states, but perhaps swing states are some that are on the edge. pennsylvania, for example, it hasn't gone republicans since is the 88, last time it was the sixth closest state. pennsylvania doesn't look like a swing state but in fact is very close to being a swing state that's why we campaign so hard there. >> sreenivasan: jack kingston joining froes trump head quarters, thank you very much. >> woodruff: in the state of colorado. i believe it's a presidential,
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yes, it is. hillary clinton declared the winner in the centennial state. you can see not all the votes are in only in the hundreds of thousands. but she's projected to be the winner. amy walter -- >> that's ha big -- not that the republicans didn't contest colorado they didn't contest it quite as strongly as they did some of the other states. but clinton campaign actually was one that had pulled out of there like virginia early on. really concentrated their forces on florida, north carolina, pennsylvania. the fact that again she's held virginia, colorado very important for her. but the michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin and new hampshire super critical. >> sreenivasan: presidential his torial michael beschlossa you see these results come in, put this in some perspective. is it like this every four
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years, eight years, where it comes down to the wire like this? >> no. not quite some breathtaking, hari, but i've been listening to all the things we've been talking about trying to explain what is for many people's donald trump's unexpected strength in the fact that this race is so close. certainly has lot to do with his positions on trade and immigration, health care and so on i'd like to suggest something else, an additional influence. that is that if you look to american history, it is usually extremely hard for one political party to hold on to the white house three terms in a row. for instance, when george h.w. bush was running in 1988 to succeed two terms of ronald reagan he referred to it as martin van buren's problem. referring to the fact that no vice president had been elected to succeed the president he
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served since 1836. we have seen that in recent times, for instance, 1976, gerald ford came very close to holding on to the white house this would have been a third term for republicans, lost narrowly late at night while losing two states. then of course the most famous one in recent times was 2000, time when al gore was running at the heir to bill clinton some say running for clinton's third term time there was enormous peace and prosperity compared to later on. yet al gore in the end came so close that went to the supreme court. >> woodruff: interesting you point that out, michael beschloss, whatever people wondered about how hillary clinton is going to run this campaign certainly at the end it has been a full flat out embrace of the president barack obama, his administration, policies, hardly been any daylight between the two of them except on trade
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policy. >> that's exactly right. as you know, judy, people were relying on the fact that barack obama's approval rate song high. so that was behind that decision to tie her to his coat tails but the fact that as his secretary of state would have been hard for her to establish a lot of daylight between them. but i think the point is that in retrospect, one thing that keeps on recurring to me tonight, barack obama, president obama, i think it was earlier this year, referred to the fact that sometimes voters like that new car smell, that was the term he used. what was -- what he was referring to was the fact that after two terms of even a president who still pretty popular sometimes people like what they don't have. >> woodruff: which when he was elected he was coming after a president geyer who at that point in his patsy was not so
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popular. >> he was benefiting from that. and who should know better than he. >> sreenivasan: is it traditional that you see increase in popularity on almost the way out the door of a president? >> no, it really isn't. that's why it's so unusual here. as you remember, president obama especially when unemployment was so high had hard time. although in recent times, for instance, bill clinton even after the impeachment crisis for him of '98-99 left office pretty popular i think as gallup poll was in the '60s. ronald reagan in 1988 even after iran can tray had very high approval rating as well. usually in a two-term presidency you will see in a second term sort of a slump but often sometimes amount the end they come up. but perhaps not as surprisingly or as sharply as happened with president obama. >> woodruff: historian michael beschloss joining us,
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thank you very much. >> i'll stay tuned. >> woodruff: see you a little bit later. we want to talk now about pennsylvania. it certainly has been a key battleground throughout this election both candidates spent a lot of time there, lot of money estimate don't have results. let's check in with dave davies with pbs in philadelphia whyy. what is going on, polls closed couple of hours ago. in fact more than that. no results yet. >> just enormous amount of tension people feel lot at stake. hillary clinton has led into the polls coming in. the sense i got on the street, one of the big concerns was, would the large african american population in philadelphia embrace hillary in the numbers that they did barack obama. that there would be concern that would be a let down. as the first african american president left office. my sense going around the city
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today talking to a lot of an african americans folks was that they met every expectation in terms of turn out. so the battle then turns to other parts of the state particularly the philadelphia suburbs where donald trump needs to do well. and i think that's the big question that remains. >> sreenivasan: dave, it was so crucial that they wanted to make their last stop right there in front of independence hall. this was -- she was lifted rally telling people who times the polls closed, she was reminding them down to that granular level how important it was to moat separate and mobilize philly in surrounding subjectz she was here, bill clinton was here, president and michelle obama and bruce springsteen. their internal polling was making them nervous about hanging on to the state which they held for the last 26 years as we just heard. i sensed lot of enthusiasm i talked to a lot of people into that really nobody said they were there to hear bruce
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springsteen. people are inspired and committed to voting. but trump's folks are out there in the central and western parts of the state, i've heard turn out was robust out there as well. he has defined expectations for the past year. i think there's lot of drama yet to play out here. >> woodruff: we've looked at your state, we've all looked at it closely because 27 electoral votes, but i guess my question is, you look at the philadelphia suburbs which used to be reliably republican, been pointed out turned more democratic. opposite thing happened in the western part of the state. the pittsburgh and the former steel town area there. what do you see in that regard? is there a reliable pattern to how pennsylvania votes at all going forward? >> i've checked the results the last five elections, republicans
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have lost the philadelphia suburbs in the last several elections, including in 2010 when senator pat tammy won. he still lost the suburbs. i don't think donald trump will win the philadelphia suburbs but has to cut into hillary clinton's margins. i just looked at a return from chester county one of those counties with mitt romney won by 10 votes it was competitive four years ago. that same township voted for hillary clinton by margin of 4 45450 that would be very good news for hillary clinton. if that kind of pattern holds throughout the suburbs. gut if it were the kind of romping win that you might expect i suspect the exit polls would have have forecast as win for hillary. we haven't seen that. >> woodruff: i need to correct what i said i said -- the 20 electorate votes how could i gets that wrong? >> lot to remember mere. >> sreenivasan: when you look at that map, seems that corners or pockets of blue are just in the urban areas, pittsburgh,
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maybe a little bit around allentown, philly, then huge swaths of red. >> they call it the t. if you look at the southeast and southwest portion seven-day forecast state where democrats reside in great numbers. you have the center and then northwestern and northeastern edges creating a t that's always been the republican stronghold. the republicans will probably carry 55 of the states, 67 counties. one-third of the registered voters in the state live in the five county philadelphia area. that is a huge battleground. >> woodruff: i want to ask you dave davies if you're hearing about the senate race, that's another one that we've been watching very closely. pat twomeey reply incumbent, any tea leaves you can read? >> when i looked at the suburban communities that gave me a meaningful result on the presidential race the result was
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razor thin. going to be up late on this one. this is interesting one because pat twomey is one of the more conservatives, he he's been endorsed by gabby gird. he's prepared himself as pragmatic, moderate in the suburbs. a ton of money has come fin around the country. >> woodruff: we have another senate race to call in colorado. the democratic incumbent senator michael bennett is the projected winner. i think we didn't think that was going to be close. michael bennett running for his
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second term in the senate. cornell belcher, daryl glenn was serious candidate. somebody who has taken seriously in the state of colorado but -- republican candidate. >> still early. i think that his marge sing to go grow. democrat has lost a senate seat. when you look at pennsylvania probably think hasn't elected woman statewide, tell me if i'm wrong on that. i think still pathway for democrats. hopes are still alive. >> woodruff: because of what you see in pennsylvania. >> and holding colorado. >> attorney general who was woman who just was -- >> not on her own. >> just one point of personal privilege.
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apologies to stuart, i was wrong about louisiana you asked about louisiana. bill clinton did carry louisiana. i knew jimmy carter did. bill clinton had. ronald reagan's job rating on election day of 1988 was 56%. favorable. the same as barack obama's which is interesting. got boost on the way out. i just thought that barack obama at 56% campaigning as hard as he did i thought it would give her a boost, maybe gave it a boost maybe hat 39 he got her to 44. >> we also -- also heard that john mccain gave speech, acceptance speech in arizona indicated that his last election to audible gasps in the room. that's -- >> woodruff: that's news. >> it's really interesting. there are number of okay that
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that garyians who were running who have done well we need to be repped that six years these people may decide not to run again. >> he'll be 86 by the end of -- >> woodruff: by the end of this term. let's go back over to our colleague lisa desjardins with nathan gonzales of the report. >> what a night. looks like we're having nail biters right now both in control of the white house and control of the u.s. senate although as we've been saying the case is getting tougher for democrats to take over the senate, one key race that we're watching heard people talk about nathan, is pennsylvania. let's look at the results right now tell me what you see -- look, this is the balance of power. this shows seats in the u.s. senate. these are all the senate races that have been called right now we have 42 members who would caulk with us democrats plus two independents and 46 republicans. that's pretty close as it is.
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like i said pennsylvania senate race looks like it could be important. why so importanty do you think it's so close where it stems? >> everything is close. everything is important right now. all -- what's interesting, mcginty, we had as toss up, democrats felt like had wind at her back going in. fell like she was up by couple of points. pat toomey never able to put himself -- put distance between himself and donald trump. in terms of the polls. so this is a tight race. as we talked about everything is a must win for democrats at this point. >> i wouldn't look at the county that we just heard, chester county, pennsylvania, i spent a lot of time. hi, guys. here is what is interesting about this county. right now mcginty is barely ahead, pat toomey was leading all night.
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in the senate race. and nathan if you look at the presidential race in chester county hillary clinton is leading by more. hillary clinton is outperforming the democrats in that swing county where democrat is winni winning. that bodes well for hillary clinton and pennsylvania in general. possible tee for mcagain tee. >> tell you about margins. hillary clinton doing well but is she doing well enough. this is an area that we're looking at for house races, the lancaster county, pennsylvania 16th district which is open seat where a republican is retiring. there's some among republicans as donald trump was struggling about maybe that race would switch. but i think it looks like -- >> that time of the night have to break in. hari judy. >> woodruff: this is big one state of florida, which is held other presidential elections in the balance, we are projecting that donald trump will be the winner in the sunshine state. you can see there is still ten
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million votes counted so far, they are still coming in -- is it 99% arting i can't tell if if that is the right number. it's down to the wire, hari in terms of the votes to come in. donald trump projected to win. amy, this makes hillary clinton's path even -- >> when we would do the math and projections of how one candidate gets to 270 or another. you can take florida off the map for hillary clinton she has other pathways but assuming that she wins wisconsin and michigan and new hampshire. those are not a given at this point in the campaign. the other thing i wanted to say, we spent lot of time talking about women and gender gap. i think race gap, we need to talk about fact that men are turning out at a much higher proportion for donald trump. than we've seen in recent elections, this is a national
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poll that she's winning men by 12 points. romney won men by. hillary clinton winning women by 12, but that is sort of normal for what democratic candidates get. it's a wash when it comes to the gender gap that is particularly notable. >> woodruff: what does that suggest to you? >> it's why donald trump is having a good night. i think this is a big surprise that donald trump is doing? well. republican party to a level i was surprised by, normalized donald trump. that really helped him in places like ohio where even though governor and the senate candidates, senator, were against him. i think -- i wonder how many of those decisions were made by individual republican office holders based on the assumption that trump would lose. for long time, dirty little
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secret has been, that many republican leaders wanted donald trump to lose. i think speaking out in these states, as some did if you look at mike lee, if you lookñhï nebraska, it's interesting. but you have to give the trump campaign lot of credit to this. >> woodruff: closing in on the 11:00 hour in the east. mark shields. >> because that's true. all kinds of people, plenty to go to iowa tomorrow. arkansas already been there, ben sass of nebraska had adamantly, honorably refused to support donald trump from the beginnings. mitt romney emerged as a mythical figure as man of conscience. and all of that, is going to be, if not forgot ebb at least discounted if in fact donald trump puts it together.
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he's on the cusp of doing it. his route to 20 right now is -- 270 right now is clear. i'm not saying it's imperative or determined. but he has a clear path. >> woodruff: we have 15 seconds, david brooks? >> i mean he won ohio by 11 so far is big. and wisconsin and michigan where he's up by two or three with 60% in a little more like ohio than other places. >> sreenivasan: take short break for pbs stations to report their local races our coverage will continue in just a moment.
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here at pbs stalking with jeff greenfield in new york. we've been talking tonight about some of the crucial moments in the campaign that have gotten us to today. obviously for clinton campaign ongoing investigation by the fbi in to her use of private server and her e-mail has been constant thorn in her side. what in that has stood out to you? >> it's almost like a tale of three letters. or tale of three comments by director of the fbi james comey. for clip contam pain went from salvation to despair to resurrection perhaps. >> i'm here to give you update on the fbi's investigation of secretary clinton's use of personal e-mail system during her time at secretary of state. what we did not find clear
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evidence that secretary clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information. although department of justice makes final decisions on matters like this, we are expressing to justice our view that no charges are appropriate in this case. >> most cases if the fbi director comes out says we don't think there's any reason to charge you, that is pretty good news. did it strike that you way for clinton? >> well, when you consider what happened with the -- as ever news organization, the bombshell, nine or ten days ago that they discovered new e-mails then two days before election saying, well, like "saturday night live" "never mind. they're not important that was body blow second announcement. they took a hit. what i do think is that director comey managed to anger all sides
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by his shifting ground of what he was saying. i think there's going to be lot of questions when this is over what the roll is of federal police agency in the midst of presidential campaign. >> this is a really striking intervention if you think about it, right? you're a scholar of presidential history when was the l time you can think of where the fbi was playing such a pivotal role in the lead up to an election? >> closest analogy to this just before the 1992 campaign, special prosecuter looking into the iran contra affair issued statement to influence george her barred walker bush for having knowledge of the affair. bush campaign felt that was a low and late blow just before 1992 election. that's closest i can come to an example like this. >> jeff greenfield, i'm william gang ham 2349 presidential election will continuish a
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moment. >> sreenivasan: live pbs coverage. i'm hari sreenivasan. >> i'm judy woodruff. polls have closed in five more states. california, the big enchilada. hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington state. we're sitting here at our table waiting for results to come in, we know a little bit about how number of states have gone tonight. david brooks, but we don't know everything. we don't know who is going to be the winner. what we are reading on the news wire services that the markets, financial markets around the world, asian markets, mexican
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pes okay are plunging because donald trump seems to be edging closer to a possible victory. >> i'm calling this election to vladimir putin he's having a good night. we don't know who is going to win. i'm following my friends and texting, they're overpanicking. it look like -- as i keep saying we're looking at michigan, wisconsin, especially michigan it's very close. and we could hang down to that. also have lot of weird circumstances by the end of the night she could win the popular vote, wind up with 269-269 lot of very bizarre things when you get close election like this you leave yourself open for lot ofñi weirdness and lot of divisiv divisiveness. donald trump has permanently changed the republican party for long time and we do know that hillary clinton has -- even if she weeks through not going to week through with any sort of wind at her back.
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>> woodruff: mark shields. >> dirty little secret was wanted donald trump leadershi leadership -- want him to lose big. whatever happens tonight he's not losing big. there's no reason for him to go away. he's going to be here. get used to him. he is now on the scene. he's exceeded expectations. expectations set by us, he's exceeded them doctor mat -- the peso could complicated to get mexico to build a wall. because it's going to be more expensive. i just think it shows the surprise that a trump surge has meant for financial community, for everybody involved. >> woodruff: reminds us that our election watched not only by aericans but all around the world, that's always the case. probably nor so. now more results to call in the
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physical tall race. >> sreenivasan: hillary clinton is projected winner in the state with the most electoral votes, california. that's with 55 electoral votes. washington state with 12 electoral votes. and hawaii with four electoral votes. donald trump projected winner in idaho with four electoral votes. >> woodruff: on to stuart stevens, this is nice the whole world is watching, stuart? >> yes. ultimately republican party that was anti-putin and wasn't 45% and 35% trade barriers. but you have to say, that other part of the parties having good night. donald trump to degree i think that people can't really focus on would be change in foreign policy. more so than any nominee we've had. i don't consider that pro. but he's having a good night.
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>> one 69 things that's interesting about it, i'm going to try this to trade and globalism, is evangelical vote. might be risks along gender lines, right now suggests there's 80-20 split. one of the things that i noticed going into this race that there was lot of talk about 'elections. they also framed in terms of globalism. court has more to do with it but also this feel of globalism tied. other types of -- this ease if you will with globalism. and this notion that america was giving up too much of the sovereignty that is objection to trade. also ties into things like how much do you get entities at the u.n. for world trade organization. we're seeing that reflected in this vote.
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>> woodruff: brexit was the british vote which few people saw coming amy walter. >> and those of us, i've had these conversations, where said, look, this is very different from brexit it was very close at the end. it was tied. fact that it went one way wasn't that surprising. this race was looking less like a tie, all the projections, am the last polls coming out had hillary clinton up somewhere between two and five points. this country such more diverse than europe. that because europe -- because the u.k. so overwhelmingly white, that we couldn't have the same sort of election in country like ours where again you said to me, this morning, electorate is going to be 0% white, that suggested that it was going took look better for hillary clinton than it did for barack obama i think made this point. not only is he doing better
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among noncollege white voters, rural areas, running up the places that romney did well but not as well but that he -- she's not doing as well with latino voters, african american voters and asian voters. some go to third party but she's not getting any bigger of a margin among those groups than barack obama. >> that's the problem. the whole year worried about this like what percentage is going to cast protest vote. seems as though lot of the electorate cast protest vote. if you talk electorate will be white this time around i said, i don't think we'd worry right now. apparently those protest voters were serious about their protest vote and her percentage, by the way, doing even less well among white voters than barack obama more to that polarization. she's doing less well and less well with minority voters.
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>> woodruff: we have state to call. north carolina, one we've been sitting here waiting for that that donald trump is projected winner in the tar heel state. i think mark shields, david brooks, that was another one that the clinton campaign put a lot of effort into. barack obama did not win it the last time but won in 2008. and clinton campaign said they didn't have to win it but sure did put some sweat equity. >> enormous effort. it was mitt romney's closest victory in 2012. georgia was second closest, i don't think we still had georgia called have we to this moment? >> woodruff: no. >> which is rather remarkable. somebody told me that north carolina would be called before georgia tonight. but that is disappointment. do we have the governor's race in north carolina? >> woodruff: not called that.
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we have not called that race yet. >> that was a big of those three. two-thirds now gone to the republicans, richard burr and mitt romney carrying north carolina. >> woodruff: look how close it is. these are latest numbers from north carolina with 92% of the precincts reporting. 49-48. mccrory is ahead. just a few weeks ago because of that -- because of the discrimination law that governor pushed ahead. >> it helps the governor. if a governor performs abley in town of calamity, in re-election, it's a boost. >> he did do pretty good job. but also they still have some numbers changing with the comey. some of these states, that is state where they did see about 3% less white vote going her way
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after the comey. >> i don't know if they saw shift back we saw nationally shifted over then a little back in the last few days. and the issue, the change issue, but could be social issues thatr transgender issues, democrats got a little 'had of where the country is, there was recoil would be very possible. >> sreenivasan: couple more results. in oregon, hillary clinton is projected winner there, no surprise. and in the senate race in hawa hawaii, brian schake and idaho holds on to his seat at projected winner. in oregon, incumbent ron widen is projected winner in washington state, senator patty murray is the projected winner she holds on as well. in california, harris is the projected winner and in wisconsin, ron johnson is the projected winner. >> woodruff: that is bad news
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for democrats. >> at this point, hillary clinton would have to sweep all pennsylvania, nevada, newçó hampshire and -- and wisconsin. >> remember nevada is -- that wouldn't be -- >> presidential -- >> woodruff: is wisconsin senate going republican does that -- >> one piece of nickel knowledge that is, in history of the united states, one senator has been defeated then come back six years later and beaten the senator who beat him. that was peter gary in rhode island in 1928 and in 1934. nobody -- >> woodruff: i didn't cover that race. >> russ feingold, that is a tough thing to do, ron johnson -- >> woodruff: he was running ahead for much of the -- >> right from the beginning had double digit lead. but they were confident as of today -- >> woodruff: makes you wonder about the presidential numbers in wisconsin.
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a little bit? >> this is not just a comey thing. when johnson is winning this is much deeper thing. something wrong with the models of the polling or something -- i don't know what the problems not just one thing this is a big republican surge, so that makes me think it's more issue based. or something. it's probably not -- >> only 14% of voters said they decided within the last week. and they did so to -- but wasn't like they went to trump 60-40 it was 59 or 56. i think that you can argue that something here was sitting there all along, so for -- i have to call myself out here for all those folks who said, well, there's some hidden vote here, voters that aren't getting picked up maybe not pollsters the truth didn't pick it up anything. online polls, phone call polls anything that could pick up any sort of hidden vote, never found it and yet here we are today
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looking at numbers that just didn't exist in any polling we've seen. >> two quick things. ons i still old hot some sort of mystical surge going on because if you were also to tell me that in the end that seven or eight percent of hispanics would actually protest vote for third party candidate but would not vote to hillary clinton i would have probably war you'd with you on that. but clearly look at the exit poll date that that they went to the polls they stood in line, they cast their protest vote. >> woodruff: protest vote. >> that suggests that clinton untrustworthiness, i don't know what would motivate. that must have had some affect. >> how many people who answer polls just answer them incorrectly or choose not to participate in the first place are, it's ultimately secret process you can pull lever for whatever you feel like. >> as pollster i'm going to -- we've been incredibly accurate,
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particularly all campaign, will be interesting to see if they were really -- >> woodruff: we'll go now down to -- up to i should say we're in washington they're in new york. trump headquarters with our jeffrey brown, has to be a little bit of celebrating going on there. >> well, there is a lot of celebrating. first, just listening to that conversation you've been having i can't help but think abut republican voters that i've been talking 'around the country recently, telling me don't believe the polls. don't believe the 30s. now, people always say that. but looks like they were on to something. here in the hall they have been calling states a little differently than you've been calling them because they're following fox news. we've been following things in slightly different order. ohio was called, that got big rousing ovation from the crowd. but i think there was some expectation that would happen. next big state to be called was north carolina. that got a huge ovation here. i think that was a real surprise
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for people. i don't know that they really thought they had one in the bag. after that, came florida. of course, that just builds and builds. now i think there's real sense of usa chant went up. nest a growing excitement and expectation. you talked earlier to former congressman comping stop. i kept him around here for a little bit. now, really, are you surprised? he said, pleasantly surprised. the first person to sort of admit i'm a little surprised. but pleasantly so. >> sreenivasan: stuart stevenson. considering what the poof is there? >> look. had a theory of this race. and it was that there was this hidden white folk and that they would turn out in these large numbers. i can't -- but you have to give
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credit that his theory of the race is proving certainly more true than my theory of the racei and other races would have indicated. >> i didn't mean to cut you off there. are there people there now that feel like it is the 270 is inevitable. victory in the making? >> i don't know that we're hearing that quite yet. i'm still hearing caution from people. the expectation, more excitement, the chanting and all, slap on the backs, high fives you see that all over the place. but i don't know anybody quite there yet. frankly around the country, i'm not sure that seen that. but i was hearing what you guys have been talking about, about donald trump as being seen by largely white electorate as an agent for change. get rid of the status quo.
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get rid of what we're seeings. i will change things help you out. >> woodruff: that was clearly part of your reporting of the last few days. we'll come back to you in a little while. for now let's check in with john yang who is at clinton headquarters. john, what are you seeing and hearing? >> a lot quieter here, judy, very large crowd. they could be very quiet sometimes. only time when state is called for clinton, they sort of rotate the networks here, they go to whichever network is making calls. or if one of those networks on the big screen comes here, comes to their correspondent here. then there's a big cheer to show that there is life in this par party. but it is -- jeffrey said there's pleasant surprise that the new york hilton. i'd say here at the gentleman its center there's -- gentleman its center, there was surprise
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but not pleasant. when north carolina was called for trump i got to say i've been able to reach anyone with campaign for a little bit now. florida has to have been a blow to this campaign. they always said that they had many paths to 270. that they could get there without ohio. they could get there without north carolina. but they were counting on florida kept talking to us about the florida ground game, the early voting with latinos and african americans saying that that would nail the door shut for donald trump. that there was no way you could get to 270 without florida. he's got it. he's got pathway but clinton still has pathway as well. but here at the javits center they're settling in for a long tight. >> woodruff: john, are they
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saying anything about pennsylvania? that's another state i know everybody has been -- had an eye on and it's now been a few hours since polls closed. >> i think there's still looking at the numbers in philadelphia city itself. looking at the black turn out there, looking at the suburbs. white women, suburban women with college degrees. they were hoping for -- looking at those areas. i haven't been able to reach anyone with the campaign for awhile now. >> sreenivasan: is there a sense there that the inverse of the question i asked of jeff brown, people there starting to realize that there could be loss in their future in the next hour and half or two? >> i think they realize, but don't think it's inevitable. they still that have a path, they think that they are hoping on nevada. they're hoping on michigan, we're getting more numbers out of wayne county. there was a jump in the -- narrowing of the margin of
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trump's lead in michigan when we got more numbers out of wayne county, also the large arab american population in -- i mi mccomb or oakland county. dearborn. but i think that they realize they have more paths but also realize that door still open for donald trump. >> woodruff: john yang at hillary clinton's celebration, quote, unquote. in new york city. thank you, john. we'll be coming back to you. i'm hearing we have another state to call, utah. for donald trump. this is very early. just 19% of the vote coming in where the polls closed at 10:00. just about -- i guess have been closed over an hour but this is not state that hillary clinton expected to win.
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we were keeping eye on conservative party candidate, evan mcmullenn maybe he might take it. >> it appears that they would hold donald trump. >> woodruff: it's interesting, much was made of the fact that utah being center of the mormon church in this country, heavily mormon population and we were reading, an draw gillespie that many mother manslaughter were not comfortable with donald trump. >> still appears to be the case. donald trump gets eight percentage points among men than women. he's probably going to get about 20% of the overall vote in the state. where trump ends up pushing ahead that more men decided that they would put those differences aside vote for him as opposed to hillary clinton.
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>> woodruff: amy walter the role of men. >> talking about the men, real where obama in exit polls and nationally behind african americans from his performance by five points, asians by eight points. this is going to be the great showdown between emerging electorate and old model white electorate. he is performing as well and better than mitt romney she's underperforming president obama. >> i would push back that he's performing better than mitt romney. i don't know necessarily see that. i think what is in fact here, issue here that you do have -- i think is false because you actually have two points less. but you also have again -- the
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electorate voting other. if you look, she's got 37% of the white vote he's got 58% of the white vote. romney got -- >> woodruff: nationally? >> 59% of the white vote. he's not necessarily off of where romney was with the white vote nationally. but she -- that protest vote right now particularly among younger voteers is killing her. >> either way i'm looking at wisconsin, 67% he's up by 2.9. he might not even need michigan just one ever those two. both look good for him. that might be -- that's where we'll watch those two that will all hang. >> sreenivasan: jeff greenfield, the rust belt playing important role and michigan and wisconsin playing
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important role. >> i think this goes back to fundamental point. if we're going to be honest, everybody thought four or five hours ago that we were going to be covering the victory of hillary clinton. one of the premises, all the pollsters told us this notion of a shy vote, of people who tell us what they're doing or somehow hidden away from us is not right. we consider how many people made up their minds long ago, it isn't jim comey and last four or five days. two other quick points. one is, what do we think bernie sanders and his followers are thinking right now. because hillary clinton was the default choice of the democratic party establish the. bernie sanders demonstrated in the primaries there was very large cohort of democrats that wanted something else. she won fair and square. but she came into this race with an awful lot of liabilities that
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i think the clinton campaign would be overwhelmed by trumps which is why we know how much they were rooting for trump. the question i think now is, if trump actually wins and let me first to offer poker analogy, clinton has to draw inside straight. if she loses, the battle over what happened where it goes next, is going to be intense to put it mildly. >> woodruff: we know you're a heavy poker player, jeff greenfield that was not surprising. but continue on with your thought about bernie sanders, what is bernie sanders thinking tonight? >> well, i don't know how charitable he is, but i think he and his followers are thinking, we nominated the wrong person. democratic party went with the safe choice, or the consensus choice or the choice of the insiders. now that we have, if trump wins,
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is a washington completely under republican control, supreme court now goes 5-4 on conservative side. and i think there would be point to the democratic party insiders, to say, you give us a candidate, only candidate we could have put up who trump could have beaten was hillary clinton. that's where the conversation is going to be on their side. >> woodruff: there was evidence of this almost two years ago, jeff, i remember seeing peter hart focus group, i remember in early 2015 where the overwhelming take away from that discussion was voters saying they didn't like either jeb bush, in particular didn't like jeb bush but didn't like hillary clinton those being the two front runners. for their respective parties. they liked elizabeth warren, mark shields is reminding me. >> i think that's is the quick point to make is that it isn't as though democratic party
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didn't know that hillary clinton had problems she was second most disliked candidate in history. just that they assumed, most of us did i think until maybe couple hours ago, that it was enough to defeat trump. i was talking with north carolina republican about no ago. both parties nominated only person the other party cobalt. what we didn't realize ex tonight which trump was able to pull supporters seen edge him as we talked about earlier, guy was going to pick over the table, change things at the root. that his choice of words proved that he he wasn't one of them. the misreading of that from the entire political journal it particular establishment is going to be the big story in the coming days and weeks. >> woodruff: may be the subject of books that are written about this election. jeff greenfield in new york, thank you. i think everybody around this table there's consensus now that
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whether donald trump wins tonight or not he is certainly giving hillary clinton a much bigger run for the money than anybody expected. and she may lose. >> yes. the last time to jeff's point that party democrats got the candidate they wanted is 1980 if you recall. they were terrified jimmy carter was terrified that republicans could nominate howard baker who was appealable or even george h.w. bush only nominate this guy with prematurely orange hair from hollywood, reagan i think his name was and 44 states later, of course, the democrats paid dearly for it. there's no question. they wanted to run against trump. >> talk about civil war in the
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democratic party. i see one in the republican party. just take trade, just focus on that this issue that supposedly proceed filled donald trump. none of them agree with donald trump on trade that i'm aware of. it's been sort of a disconnect between where donald trump was and where the senators were. they're not for tariffs. don't want to throw out these trade agreements like trump does. it's going to be really interesting to see what they're going to do. some agreement. key issues like that. he said, he was agreed with bernie sanders. not going to ask republican party to agree with bernie sanders on trade? you. know, you make really good point. i remember at the republican convention with republican members of congress who when discussion came up about what
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would president trump look likeó infrastructure spending where is that money going to come from. not going to get republican congress to spend more money. where are you going to get obamacare. trade, there's still going to be key issues spending more money especially on something like the call that's going to be pushback. >> trump ran against entitlement reform. paul ryan has -- >> that's another one. >> made his reputation on necessity of entitlement reform, trump is against it. >> woodruff: long been projecting that donald trump, deficit under donald trump administration way bigger than -- >> this event underlines we no longer have traditional race, open and closed race, open globalization.
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i'm reminded whole bunch of polling errors over last couple of years in greece, israel, netanyahu, u.k. cam ran, brexit, the trump in each case under polled the close equation. so this is a global wave that we are missing trump happened to be leading it. >> let's take quick look with lisa desjardins. >> what grouping we have in the physical tall race but right now we can talk about possibility not only of a president trump but potentially president trump with republican controlled congress. much still to be decided that hasn't been decided yet but looking -- you can look at senate bounds of power, 46 caucusing with democrats. 48 with the republicans. key that democrats are running out of opportunities. i'm going to graphic we thought we'd look all night recalled our scorecard how many pick ups democrats have had in the u.s.
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senate tonight. they need four or five in order to take over the senate. and so far if you look how many of those they have gotten just one in illinois. how many races are left in the senate, battleground races, democrats have opportunity. >> we're still looking at four outstanding senate races that are toss ups, new hampshire, missouri, pennsylvania, nevada. right now there just isn't path for democrats to get majority. there's path for control if hillary clinton wins the white house. but i think what's remarkable that we're talking about this upheaval election. potential donald trump elected president of the united states when you look at these senate races, house races it's looking like very at that time us question.xd minimal change in the senate. minimal change in the house. this is more complicated, not just throw the bums out election, might just be -- stopping -- >> difference can go on. we talked about very important
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senate race which is new hampshire. senator kelly ayotte. we've seen the state's governor leading that race look what happens now. kelly is pulling ahead. this goes with the narrative we seen in the last hour and half. they don't want narrative republican that are cheering. kelly ayotte i think we're seeing her head toward maybe keeping her seat that's seat absolutely democrats would need if they're going to take over the senate. let's talk also about the house. predictions, there's one point not long ago maybe two weeks ago perhaps democrats can take over the house. now we're seeing only picked up two. race that is particular that tells us something. >> new york's first district running for re-election, it's been a competitive district. but he cozied up to donald trump. he made in the local media even called president obama a racist
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and democrats were excited. they were ecstatic this is perfect. started to look at the numbers, wait. donald trump is actually doing well in this district. it was good early indicator that even though donald trump's unpopularity nationwide was high. >> we haven't seen, lot of races in florida, wanted to ping haven't done that. hasn't been that surge. i have to stop myself because going back to judy and hari. >> woodruff: thank you,ly virginia news is, that donald trump is projected winner in hawkeye state, iowa, this is state that. the democrat hillary clinton losing to the republican donald trump. david brooks we're watching the
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-- >> the greatest political upset in american history. why was clinton -- just saw from the atlantic that she made two visits to wisconsin in the last few months that could turn out to be very bad decision. just think now just looks like bigger thing. that there is title wave of revolt against global economy. against wave of immigration we've seen over last 30 years. results of deindustrialization. when you add in people you can get very high number of families that are disrupted. family break down, fact that christians in the last four or five years have folks completely under assault in this country. because some of the supreme court decisions, takes lot of factors to make something this big. lot of factors are in play. >> cornell belcher, this is, whata we're talking about it was expected that donald trump was going to do well, polls have been indicating that we are
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seeing early signs in wisconsin which is not called yet, state that everybody assumed, most people ashamed going to hillary clinton. donald trump showing surprising strength. >> this is why they are battle grounds. they are so tight. again, when i looked at iowa and ohio these are states probably drifting away from democrats. you got to -- she's got to hold wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan, holds those, she's probably going to be okay. but wisconsin right now is troubling. >> woodruff: call to make in the state of georgia. the projected winner is donald trump. we've actually lot of us are surprised it's taken this long, polls closed in the peach state at 7:00. it's four hours -- four and half hours later. it looks like pretty significant margin with 9% of the vote in,
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andra gillespie you've been watching georgia develop you can explain why it's so late. we expected donald trump to win there. >> we expected donald trump not to surprise. not uncommon sometimes for some of the atlanta areas, counties to be slow in their reporting. may explain part of the reason why it's taken this long for it to comeó in. but again it was expected that it was going to tilt red. >> woodruff: it doesn't change the story that we're talking about tonight but one more happy moment for the donald trump campaign. amy walter? >> yeah. this was state that he was supposed to win. we had projected that the polls that had come out of there, one state that polls actually got quite right was iowa that you never really fallen behind in that state. but again, it goes to this battleground of the midwest that what watches performing differently than wisconsin or michigan. folks gave reason for that
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because, iowa is more rural. iowa doesn't have a big population center like detroit or milwaukee. iowa doesn't have as many suburban women because you don't have as many big suburbs, all those were going to protect, ins plate hillary clinton from what was going to happen to her in iowa. obviously that doesn't necessarily look like the case right now. >> it's shout out for ann exceller, the "des moines register." she called it seven points. we have it at six. argument going in as to the way iowa was the exception was that iowa had -- sixth highest high school graduation rate in the country. but 35th in college graduation. this was made for trump in sort of his -- nobody i know said, well, gee, if iowa is going maybe just step overboard tore wisconsin then on to michigan.
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obviously, it was -- i would say, two anxieties. economic anxiety and cultural anxiety. cultural anxiety about country i know is changing. they are making fun of the things i compare about, whether it's fay patriotism or religion, traditional values, all moving so fast. >> that's tied in with immigration and -- >> yeah. i do think that is contributed to certainly the environment that we're seeing expressed. >> woodruff: lisa has been talking to some of the trump folks. >> they say mood over there is fantastic. they are careful not to say fit they think they have this won but source went ever so close to saying that, they said we think we're there. backed off saying, we're not going to jinx this, there's more states to come in. talked about wisconsin and michigan. also the trump campaign at least this one very high ranking
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source they feel that's correct itçó polls tonight have been problem for them that the exit polls are not standing up to the actual results. they are questioning that. obviously feel like results that they're seeing. also donald trump i'm told has been in the war room himself with his staff. that's not necessarily common. but it's obviously a jubilant mooped among the trump campaign staffers at trump tower waiting on wisconsin and michigan. they get wisconsin and perhaps one vote in maine the main ex second district, they think that's it. not calling it yet very close in their mind. >> woodruff: it is certainly been -- thank you who has been following the trump campaign throughout much of the year. >> the financial markets are certainly responding towards trump presidency right now. the dow futures are down a thousand points which is about 5.5%. that can change overnight.
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they are looking at statistical models from the "new york times" that 95% trump presidency.c we'll find out when market opens. >> woodruff: it would be -- >> brexit was very close. number of polls coming in in that last week. more than half of them showing that brexit -- that could win more than half that -- >> it was overlooked that. >> it was overlooked. so many underlying indicators, literally zero indicators in any type of modeling, polling, prediction markets. nothing had given us any indication of this. >> you know, i'm not 100% sure that i agree completely with. that i would say prediction markets that poll aggregators some of them trying to minimize error. if you looked at the individual
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polls you saw margins of error. we tend to truncate margins of error correctly. these things would accommodate things that we're seeing. we just don't like that much uncertainty going into it we tend to carve them closer. >> by 11 points. >> that's more than dasher. but the other point is all these polls, we got do 51%. she was never at majority in any of these polls, and those late floaters tend to break against incumbent for better or worse. >> woodruff: do want to call one governor's race, vermont this is a change of party control. i believe the winner is the republican lieutenant governor phil scott. that's right. change of party. defeating democrat, sue minter that's a change of hands. more good news for republicans.
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>> this may be high water mark for the republican history. have all. houses and -- >> half governor ships. >> people and -- 2018 is very -- senate side that is a very good looking year for republican so many democrats who sit in red states. >> first mid term president trump? >> very different. >> mid term. donald trump's first term. >> stuart stevens, internal conversation of republican party right now, this guy delivered results. he got us to place where we couldn't get going the route that we used to go. >> i think that's true. i don't consider it that encouraging. what is undervalued here, donald trump went out said a lot of
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things we as society have decided should be unacceptable. he called for religious test in the united states. he called mexicans coming to the united states, this is something i think is not a positive sign. i don't think that everyone supports donald trump agrees with. that but i think that if you wanted to talk about who stuck electric cord in some of these voters, i don't think it was unemployment rate, i don't think it was economic stress. i think it was the ability to say these things and be someone else makes it okay. to feel this. personally i don't consider that positive. >> woodruff: we're going out to the west coast given fact that the polls closed in california about 43 minutes ago.
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reporters scott shaffer joins us from our station kqed in san francisco. scott, bring us some wisdom from am the way out there. >> feels like we're living in at universe out here, judy. we expect hillary clinton to do very well, latest polls showed her ahead by 23 points over donald trump. we're going to be electing new u.s. senator tonight, the attorney general who was very quickly rising star. in the democratic party is going to win the u.s. senate seat held by senator barbara box who are is retiring in this system we have out here, if she wins will defeat loretta sanchez the orange county congress woman. on track to also tighten up gun control, legalize pot and death penalty still hanging in the balance we're not sure. two questions regarding the death penalty are on the ballot. >> that does sound like at reality compared to what the rest of the country is thinking
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about going through right now. is there -- it is in many ways san francisco bay area is liberal thought in the country compared to what we're talking about waiting for wisconsin hanging in the balance, waiting for the base core, trump voter that has given him incredible performance tonight. >> absolutely. we were so confident, labor was so confident in california that clinton was going to win they were flooding nevada with volunteers to make calls, precinct walk those kind of things, i don't think that confidence was misplaced. we'll know better as more votes come in. but clearly, this was a state thinking back to june, primary where bernie sanders gave hillary clinton a run. he got about 45% of the vote. she obviously won. but you saw that discontent that people felt with hillary clinton expressed among democratic voters also nonpartisan voters who are allowed to vote in the
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physical shat primary. you know, some ways we saw. that back in june, hillary clinton's support was broad but maybe not so deep. >> woodruff: scott, that raises a very good point what we've been talking about around this table tonight that is, just where is hillary clinton's support coming from and how enthusiastic is it. clearly, in some places where her campaign was counting on where the party was counting on is not there? >> it's not there. you know, there was very confident of their granted game, judy, the get out to vote effort was mase basically inherit fred the 2012 obama campaign, many of the same people worked on the precinct operations, very sophisticated use of data to target voters, they knew exactly who they needed to get to the polls. there was some concerns about level of enthusiasm especiallyñi among african american voters, thought was that she could make up for that with more votes from latinos, but i think perhaps as
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you've been discussing what was missed, is the elevated support and enthusiasm for donald trump among working class white folks and caucasians without college education. >> woodruff: scott shafer with kqed. get that right. public television in san francisco. scott, thank you very. >> thank you. >> woodruff: so, we are left with less hillary clinton won california. mark shields, but the final results we don't know yet. >> we don't know. certainly is more suspenseful than many of us expected. but we are in the heart of post industrial america. if you think about wisconsin and michigan. where as america as changed more
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dramatically economically. the irony, of course, is that barack obama in 2012 did so well in both michigan and ohio because of the auto bail out. >> able to portray romney -- s somebody who -- in the "new york times" saying going to be managed bankruptcy of the auto industry. but that is the reality. it's a changed reality. and the one point that stuart made that i want to underline is that politics is the most imitative of the u.s -- besides journalism, has legitimized speech that was totally unacceptable. considered unhelpful and counter productive and hurtful. it wasn't that people were necessarily more noble, but that
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was considered speech that would be damaging to you politically, will be a thousand donald trumps running for everything from county recorder to library board starting monday morning. >> one of the thing that's interesting about this is that if you look at the age-race break down. that is not terribly unusual to see white millennials. i don't think people would assume that happens, trump gets plurality of that, going to be off on third party candidates but assume that the younger generation going to be more socially liberal on all matters that may not be true. >> very last clinton campaign call we're outpurchasing with white millennials. obama lost them we're winning them. we're outpurchasing with latinos, outpurchasing a with asians, outpurchasing white -- >> what were they basing that
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on? >> on what they were seeing -- but they're not. >> they're not. >> the story line is if you look at his percentages, they're not that far off of mitt romney's they came back. she has not held obama coalition the kay that -- >> sreenivasan: there was commentator in one of jeff brown's pieces, it was pollster in iowa that said last 12 years i've been hearing people want a candidate, sometimes by name, like this. >> woodruff: this is anne seltzer in washington. >> have to go back see what happened. the pollster story which is fascinating story. just history story where the mention of brexit. it was like spanish american war compared to world war i. that is a global story. the america's role in the world is going to change if trump wins. estimate not certain i can see lot of -- one path for clinton to pull this out. but obamacare, gone. lot of the immigration policy,
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utterly transformed. lot of big things are about to happen if trump wins. and why people elected him to me something we're going to argue about just projecting forward, we have no now widen our horizon ons of what america future will look like. it's going to be lot of things. democratic party believe me has not thought about this. i don't think anybody has scenario for a trump presidency. >> woodruff: there's that argument. i've interviewed number of authors looked at the white working class swath of america and come at it in many different directions. j.d.vance and others and the thrust is that democratic party was not paying attention to the white working class people of america, that's a great overstatement. i don't want to over state it. but there's something going on
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out there this year. >> we could give us all minutes to think about future of america as we head up to the newsroom. william brangham, daniel bush you've been following a lot of things throughout the night. >> understood. >> good evening. i'll william with daniel, we've been following the story as this is unfolding as it seems that donald trump is edging closer and closer to the nomination. we've from been trying to see how? being followed. you've been looking at what liberals with democrats have been saying, what have you been seeing? >> this is not the night they have been expecting. hillary clinton came in with advantage in national. the producer of "scandal" who campaigned with hillary clinton. she's sent out tweet saying,
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really, people? anyone can -- anyone can be president? anyone? katrina, editor of the nation magazine saying, tomorrow more than soul searching demanded among pollsters, clearly hillary clinton supporters are very surprised right in and out. >> this is of the trump family watching results. perhaps their faces depict what a lot of the people, a sense of awe and shock at the story how it's unfolding. we heard some some other prominent conservatives that we've seen. bill kristol conservative writer and it for of the weekly standard tweeted this out just recently. here is my deep analysis of the race based on careful study of county and precinct level results. omg. oh, my, god. eric ericson from red state, another conservative writer wrote, republicans can't win by relying on just white people
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will be uttered again in four years. again, we haven't seen as much jubilation as we might ex sect from republicans growing sense ever confidence. >> that's right. race is not over yet. but they're showing some confidence now beginning to say, this race is going in donald trump's direction. silent majority are coming through. >> one other tweet that we just saw recently, this was put out by jodi cantor reporter for the new york sometimes, wrote biography of the obamas she wrote what i'm hearing from democratic women again and again, what. 'going to tell my daughters in the morning. certainly this was something that hillary clinton had hoped would be big rallying cry for her voters that the idea of possibly seeing a woman in the white house clearly this one reporter hearing from lot of them that they are feeling deeply despondent to say the least. >> that's right. it's going to be lot of despair if hillary clinton does indeed lose.
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starting to see that on social media, following this all these reactions coming in. very different night for hillary clinton than they expected. >> one other thing that we've been picking up on, few environmentalists who are looking at the possibility of trump presidency, again, this is still -- still waiting on final results on this. but bill mckibbon one of the leading environmental activists pushing for stricter and tougher rules on climate change tweeted out just recently if trump wins, savages the planet's chance ever dealing with climate change. biggest results of hideous night. we'll keep watching, keep watching on social medium we'll be back later on, thanks very much. back to you. >> woodruff: thank you. all that very really fascinating, social media reaction. we're here watching the wires, other sources of information. we're talking about it around
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the table. canada's immigration website has apparently crashed. suggesting that number of americans are looking at moving to canada we don't know much beyond that at this point. we reported earlier the financial markets have reacted, futures market by plunging at least at this point. again we don't know what is going to happy lex has not been called yet. it's 244 electoral votes for donald trump and 209 for hillary clinton. you need 270 to become president. amy walter as i%$u minutes ago the path for hillary clinton has narrowed considerably. >> we're getting also to place where hillary clinton could end up winning pot poop pew lar vote losing electoral vote which winner of the electoral vote isi winner of the presidency. but it would be sort of cold comfort to democrats they would have won popular vote in more trait elections than any party
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has, you have to go back to the 1820s to see that yet come up short of the presidency in two of the those elections. >> sreenivasan: william was mentioning climate change consequence very long term, supreme court also trending online, that's next 30 years of impact that the next president will have. >> woodruff: environmental, certainly supreme court touches every aspect of our lives. >> absolutely. given gridlock of congress, non-productivity of the congress. court assumed even larger role in national decision making, national posey. i don't think any questions that this is the battleground. it's significance cannot be overstated. >> woodruff: remind us what are the states that we're waiting to see at this point right now. what are we waiting to see come
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in? >> we are waiting to see wisconsin. >> woodruff: wisconsin. >> michigan. >> woodruff: and electoral votes. >> and michigan. new hampshire. >> and new hampshire, small states -- >> nevada, small states are awfully important. >> maine the house seat in mainz it's maybe combination states smaller. we still don't know pennsylvania am i right? >> right. >> and that hasn't been called. that's one that hillary clinton -- >> she was -- she loses pennsylvania it's over without question. but even wisconsin the path so much -- no margin for error for either. even if clinton for trump gets the popular vote they are still looking like they might winnie electoral vote by very narrow. >> woodruff: possibility of donald trump is broiling. the world financial march debts, asian stocks, down sharply.
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the japan's average off 4%. overnight stock futures are down more than 4.5%. the dollar has dropped sharply against japanese yen and against euro and price of gold is up sharply which is stewart stevens when people get worried about economic stability, right? >> i'm always amused for this. i'm not sure what that means. >> woodruff: back to -- it's a good example that have. i think that it's troubling to the economic markets because i think it's going to be bad for american jobs and business. and others don't disagree.ñ ver to attribute trump's economic success to the environment
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personally i feel it's not the best side of america. it's certainly not a uniformity of opinion -- >> we're closing in right this second it's 12:00 on the east coast, 9:00 p.m. on the west coast and there's no other polls to close but alaska. we've been on the air six hours and still don't know who the next president of the united states is. it was thought that we might have an idea by now if hillary clinton were doing well but we also knew all along this could be a long night. >> now as it stands in the electoral vote hillary clinton with 209 and donald trump with 244, 270 is what they need. to jeffery brown at trump campaign headquarters. it's sort of susp


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