tv Nightly Business Report PBS April 1, 2019 5:00pm-5:31pm PDT
gr> this is "nightly business report" with bilfith and sue herera.ha >> a start. stocks soar on the first day of the second quarter and some are askither the market is about to shift from playing defense to offense.l >> c for regulation. why facebook's ceo wants the government to createewulines for the internet. >> refinance rush. millions of americans are in a position to save money on their mortgages. those stories and much more tonight on "nightly business report" for monday, april 1st. >> and we bid you a good evening and welcome. the dow rallied today, back above 26,000 to start this see nd quarter. ll by a good economic report. about china. manufacturing activity that was the stronge it has been in at
least eight months. now, there was also a good manufacting report here in t u.s. it expanded in march, reboundin from its lowest level since 2016. but cheerily the report out of china was the bigger influence, and it was all a reminder that ionomic growth isortant to wall street and the growth doesn't always have to beere home. so to start april, the dow jones industrial average gained 329 points, it's at 26,258. s&p up aq added 99, the by 32. and april is historically a good month for the market. the dow has not declined in the month of april since 05. the s&p since 2012. nd the start of this quarter comes at an interesting time. mike santoli exmains. >> a big question on wall street entering the second quarter, will the market shift fromay g defense to offense? looking at the s&p 500's strong 13% gain in the year's first three months, for its best first
quarter in 21 years, it might seem stocks were already running hard on offense, yet for the past month the market has held lupgely because more stable aggressive sectors were doing well, insulating from a soft global economy. some strategists argue the cent drop in bond yields and s is warning theap efensive oaching end of the economic expansion or a longer period of sluggish activity and flat corporate profits. but another camp says thearket has rotated toward sturdier, safer areas to wait out a global soft patch and embrace t reserve's long pause on interest rates. calls have risen for the fed to cut rates soo as a way to help ensure a growth pickup fed itself is betting the economy remains healthy, giving policymakers time to be patient to see how the e datalve before making a drastic move. a version of the benign market
rotation scenario happened in 2016, another time of low bond t yields, ant fed and a global economy struggling to get back on track. under a remay of that experience, the market would remain on alert for signs of an uptick in global growth in response to centralank imulus efforts and more cyclical parts such as industrials and banks taking the job of carrying the indexes higher. it mightm like a delicate and uncertain tran dtion, but tht an implausible one. i'm mike santoli. >> tlet'sn to david kelly to talk more about what he sees ahead for the markets and tom ec in the second quarter. he is the chief global funds.ist at jpmorga good to see you. welcome back. >> glad to be here. >> let's start first of all with the economy. you maiain that it is slowing down a little bit, but not necearily going towards a recession. >> well, that's right. in fact,ther numbers we got
today confirmed that. if you look at the n construction spending, retail sales, and inventories,ar those all actually pretty positive p and they've pushed our estimate for gdp up t 2%, not 3% of last year, but 2% is fine. this is moving forward slowly. 2% growth would be good for markets. >> what's imrtant to wall street right now? we saw this report out the manufacturing tht se to spark this rally. is the overseas economy for more impo? it's part of the story because is part of the risk. we've seen a global manufacturing vortex where the mafacturing numbers coming out of particularly big export to companies like iwan,korea, japan, china, they were getting verse and worse month after month, and w seen an end to that in this month's numbers.
i was particularlyge encou by the fact the numbers got better in korea, taiwan, and japan, sometimes suspicious of chinese day that that things are about to turn around. i think that is positive. it removes the risk there. that's good for markets. >> one of the things that this quarter will most likely see is some sort of rayolution one or the other on brexit and there are people out there who are saying that is a big risk not only toco ourmy but to our markets. how would you rate that? >>no, i don't think -- ultimately, i think brexit has been a big splash for britain, small ripples for the rest of the wod. they're not as important to the global economy as it is to britain. they still can't o figure what to do, so they'll probably have to punt the ball down the road maybe for quite a few morers quarefore they figure out if they're going to leave the european unn.
>> for our stock market, the fourth quarter last year, w terrible, tst in decades, the last quarter the best in a apcade. what do you thinkns this quarter? >> well, i think it's pretty diverse quarter to quarter.hi i overall things should continue to get better because i think we're at the point of maximum fear aut theslowdown trading into a recession. i think we're just getting past those fears. if we do, 2% grow,eople are perhaps a littloutoo worried earnings going negative. i think they'll stay positive. and i think interest vetes will p a little bit helping the financials and more cyclical stocks. when interest rates are this low, tre aren's many good alternatives. if the u.s.nd economy global economy can move forward, equities over bonds. >> on that note, david, thank you. david kelly with jndorgan >> a fed official said today now
is not the time to cut interest rates. neil cash carney believes rates are in the right place right now and pausing futureas inc allows the central bank to get more information on the central economy. the white house called for the fed to cut interest rates by nhalf a point friday and do it immediately. >> w h the he e cus, a handful of new reports took on extra importance today. steve liesman has the details. >> economic data in the u.s. today coming in a bit better than exticted, pro economists to upgrade a still weak outlook for growth in the first quarter. and we now have our first look at expectations for theecond quarter. the cmbc rapid update for the ra first quartering at 1.5% gdp growth, down from the fourth quarter, but up 0.2 from prior forecasts. the second quarter looks althy, up. we got there the hard way.
februah retail sales were muc lower than expectations, down 0.2% while economists were looking for up 2%. but january revised up sharply to 0.7%. the two sort ofce c each other out but on balance left economists thinking the consumer would do better than originally pected. meanwhile, a key manufacturing index, supply and management for march coming in better than expected at a healthy e 55.3, whending topped ant estimates by a long way with a 1% gain. coming?down, is it it's here, but it's not looking as weak right now as first feared. i'm steve liesman. >> a new report says auto sales in the first quarter t hir slowest phase in more than four years. this was released one day before automakers report ses for march which are expected to show a month of solid but slower growth. phil lebeau has more.
>> it looks like the consur is finally tapping the brakes when it comes to buying nnd cars trucks. j.d. power analyzed sales of alst 3 million new vehicles in the first quarter and says the pace of sales is thelowest the industry has seen since late 20in. >> we're s people perhaps have fewer cars than in theast becaus of new service bus in general the overall economy see with the auto manufacturers, this isn't something wwould find alarming. doesn't look lik 2013 or 2014. >> since 2015, annual auto sales have topped 17 million vehicles. the best four-year sver in the u.s. so why is demand cooling off? one factor i higher interest rates for auto loans, which means higher monthly payments. still, with americans showing strong consumer confidence and unemployment at its lowest level in decades, there are still plenty wf peopleling to
spend big bucks, especially for new in fact, j.d. power says automaker revenue hit a record high lastr. quar >> i think they want to buy pick ut trucks. they like them. they're they work their way through the snow reasonably well. these things changeut in 2019, i think we'll see a continued move to pickup trucks and suvs. >> automakers believe the slowdown in sales is not the befinning ofp a major d business. instead they're hoping it's case of consumers taking their foot off the gas and before buying a new car or truck. phil le poebeau. d >> todestic crude it hit a five-month high on that positive economic data we told you about. tighte supplies from a possible decrease in output from opec nations contributedo the increase. crude settled up nearly 2.5% to
more than $61 a barrel. >> time to take a look at se today's upgrades and downgrades. u.p.s. wasupgraded from buy to hold. that company has built a strong business globally and will continue to show marginpr ement as a result. price target $130 and shares rose more than 2% today. butt t same analyst downgraded rival fedex to hold from buy. the analyst cited the headwinds in some markets and issues still related to fed ex's acquisitions three yrs ago with tnt express. price target $200. shares closed the day at $186.45, up nrly 3%. >> wells fargo's rating was cut to market perform from outperform. the analyst says the bank save less in expenses than previously believed. the price target is0. they closed at $48.81, up 1%.
lennar was down graded to outperform from strong buy at raymond james, a positive ratinn butdered a downgrade. the analyst says he's moderating his view of the stock based on its valuation, but he's still constructive on the overall outlook. price target is $55, the shares finished the a day $48.91, down a fraction. >> still ahead, facebook is doing what many companies don't -- it's asking lawmakers for tougher regulation. boeing's software fix may take longer than estimated. the f said today that more
time is needed for additional work by the company to ensure that boeing has identified and appropriately addressed all issues. the government regulator nowt expects tha fix to be submitted in the coming weeks. >> theun y's major airlines are recovering from delays caused by a system failure. the faa said several carriers xperienced issues with a commonly used flight planning software. that prevented some flightsrom taking off and quickly rippled affected included southwest, more than one-fifth ul its sch impacted shgt and sky west, an operator for united and delta. last week, a severallines reported problems with the reservation system run by a company called sabre. >> topping apple as the world's most profitable company. the oil company revealed its net profits reached $111 billion last year. ape had a net profit of about $60 billion.
they made their financial information available in apr pectus for a proposed $10 billion bd sale. moody's did not give them its top credit ratino due a heavy den ndence on the saudi economy. and apple cut the price of its iphone and mac products in china. they toe al about 6%. as we've been reporting the drum beat for regulation of internet companies is growing loer and today in "washington post" op-ed, facebook's ceo, mark zuckberg, outlined now exactly he thought it should be done. have been mixed.n, reactions >> mark zuckerberg thinks regulation is inevitable so he's prshosing what ild look like, outlining new rules for the internet for harmf content, election integrity, privacy and data portability, saying he wants regulators to set standards at what counts a as terrorists ase inappropri
condition cop tent or an ap is political. >> you can't offload freedom of speech to the government. this is a private company. i got to say, this is his job. he's got to clean up this mess an he can't turn to the government for that. ew zuckerberg advocating for a global frk for privacy regulation based on ed opean rules mmon standards for transferring data. but itroon'tct facebook from pending investigations. and just last we , the department of housing and urban development charged facebook with enabling discrimination, but this could help facebook work with congres as both sides of the aisle scrutinize the warner saying i'm glad to see mr. zuckerberg isfi lly acknowledging what i've been saying for the past two years. the heir of the social media wild west is over. >> bigomnies should be able to handle regulations. they would prefer not to ha,
thut as we've seen in europe, these regulations have hurt investment in smaller companies, allowed the market share for google and facebookzo and a to expand. there's going to be regulation. facebook preferred they can somehow mold them. >> but a representative says they don'tant facebook's involvement in the process,ng twee facebook is under has shown it cannot regulate itself does anyone want his advice? this comes amid repts from india that things could impact the upcomingec ons. facebook and instagram have deled hundreds o pages in india to stop the manipulati. for "nightly business report," i'm juliaoar sin in los angeles. lyft share's market focus. theywlipped be its ipo price of $72 a share in this second day of trading.
many analysts are now citing a number of challenges for money losing company including slowing market share gains andi compe pressures. lyft as you know went public just on friday, beating its biggest rival, uber, to the stock market. lyft today closed down just about t12% $69 and a penny. ianwhile, kello selling one of its best known brands to ferrero f about $1.3 billion. the cereal maker is parting ways with a kees and various fruit snacks businesses. they said last year they were explorinthe sale of some brands to refocus operations. ferrero is the maker of nutella among other brands. kellogg lost more than 2% today to $56.02. and cal main reported better than expected earnings and revenue. they pointed to a strong demand for eggs led by a specialty business. their increase in revenue comes
despite arop in egg prices. shares were off about 3% today to $43.27. march gambling revenue from the chinese gamblingri try of macaw fell slightly but higher than analystsexpected, good news for wynn report v resort, estimadet to more than 70% of its revenue from that reon. ares rose more than 8%. com score'seo and president are stepping down. the chief executive cited irreconcilable differences with the board over the strategy ando exec both executives have been at the company less than a year. a current directors ser as interim ceo. com score lost nearly 30% today. and pg&e may not be able to esume dividend payments to shareholders rigay. a federal judge wants the utility to trim hundreds of thousands of trees near its power lines before it canive
mone back to its investors. the cases related to a 2010 natural gas explosion can this killed eight people. the judge oversees pg&e'sio probin that point. gained 1% to there are 18.01. >> to the housing marke now,s you may know, mortgage rates fell sharply last week, poen ry creating a very big opportunity for a lot of homeowners carrying a mortgage. here are theer numbs. >> america's homeowners just saw the biggest one-week mortgage rate drop in a decade. the average on the 30-year fixed fell to nearly 4%, which meant 4.9 million borrowers could likely qualify for a refinance and reduce the interest rate by at least three-quarters percentage point accordingk kni. that was nearly a 50% increase in the number of those who could benefit. it'smportant to factor in closing costs. for someone not intending to than a the home for more
few years ark refi might not sa them enough, but for nose planning on staying on a $300,000 mortgage, refinancing from 4.81% to 06% would save the homeowner $ abo3 a month month. it was a boon not just to borrowers but lenders as well.ch they were rg out to clients, making sure they knew of a potential mortgage rates are popping higher again today as the bond market semis off, which just goes to show how volatile this market is. for "nightly business report," i'm diana olich in washington c >>ing up, the bipartisan effort to change some popular savings plans and to improve retirement sec
when tt com retirement, americans are feeling more b confident they're still worried. according to a new survey from cnbc and financial technology firm acornsore than half of adults are somewhat more confidentor much mor about their retirement plans ee years were just t ag and yet saving for retirement ranks as the overallrs top al finance concern. and that's especially true for those between the ages of 45 and 64. by theway, nbcuniversal and comcast ventures are invesrs in acorn and comcast is the parent company of cnbc, which oduces this program. >> today starts financial literacy month. it was established in 2003 to teach americans how to learn and mainta healthy financial
habits. but with retirement as a top concern, weissked bobi to take a look at how much americans have reallysaved. as he report, it's not a pretty picture. >> do you know where your retirement is? americans can ertainly use help. baby boomers in particular. that's me. we've not saved nearly enough for retirement. we'll live longer than most of us think and ifhe trends wetinue, some of us are going e die. look at the state of the three legs of private savings, pensions and social security. start with the privatesavings. at vanguard, the average 401(k) account for an investor 65 and up was just under $193,000 in 2018, but that a number is inflapted by a small group of super savers. the median, for the age group it's $58,000 for a -yr-old. try averaging that over 20 years, say. most america are expected to live into their 80s, remember,
so you're not pulling out a lot on a yearly basis. 5% of thatbe a year, $3,000. let's look at pensions. the state of those who have pensions aren't much better. the median private p sion was about $9,000 a year. finally, social security, in 2018, average social security check about $1,400 a month. say that's 7,000 a year. let's add all this up. what do we juhave? a little more than $29,000 a year. it's certainly possible to live on $29,000 a year, particularly if you live in a relatively low-cost part of the country. but it's hardly a robust retirementg, and somethhese are the lucky ones. a study but the st. louis federal reserve found 27% of households have a defined plan.t plan, a pension and only one-third have a defined contribution l plan. thate a 401(k). that's not a lot of people. i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> now, as it happens, retirement may be o area where
republicans and democrats in congress can actuallyagree, and they're working together to make changes to some very popular savings plans. here are details. >> tomorrow, congress will begin deda deba biggest retirement plan in history. it's called secure act and it's to expand access to private retirement savings, especially for people who work in small businesses. >> it's packaging it into a comprehensive piece of legislation that would address many of these little issues that have cropped up over the years where solutions have been se thed to try to incr ability of workers to save for their retirement. >> this bill allows sma businesses so band together to offer 401(k) plans to their employees. it repeals the maximum age for ira contributions, 70 1/2, and requires companies to allow long-term, part-time workers to participate in 401(k) plans and
lets you withdraw from your ira for a birth or an adopti without a penalty. d there's a provision that expands the use of 529s toomay for schooling or private schools or pay off student loans. the house ways a means committee takes up the bill tomorrow and it has t backi of top democrats and republicans. mike kelly is one of the co-sponsors. >> we were sent here by our folks in back home to act in their best interest, not our best interest or our party's but in the best interest of the which is the real reaso all of us come to washington to serve. >> the senate has been working on similar proposal. seperts are calling it practical, commons legislation. >> this is the next important step in the process, but i think there's a lot of optimism to getting something towards the finish line later this year. >> this could be a r example of successful bipartisanship.