tv Nightly Business Report PBS November 12, 2015 6:30pm-7:01pm PST
♪ >> announcer: this is "nightly business report," with tyler mathisen and sue herera. cisco skid. a slowdown in orders overshadows better than expected results putting pressure initially on shares of the dow component. dangerous darlings. amazon has a new title of most expensive stock. but is owning shares with sky-high valuations dangerous to your wealth? wrong track. why part of the economy that we don't really talk about very often may be flashing some warning signs. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for thursday november 12th. good evening, everyone. and welcome. this is getting repetitive. another nasty day on wall street. stocks suffered their worst session in over a month. the three major indexes fell more than 1% pressured by a drop in oil and gas prices that
forced down energy company shares in the s&p 500. they fell 2.4% today. 5.4% so far this week. fed chatter didn't help. evans, dudley, lacquer, yellen, they all spoke. none broke new ground, but none quelled worries that interest rates may rise at the central bank's next policy meeting in december. more on that in a moment. meantime, the dow jones industrial average fell 254 points to 17,448. nasdaq declined 61. the s&p 500 off 29 and is now negative for the year. dow component cisco issues a disappointing outlook despite reporting a rise in profit. the network equipment maker earned 59 cents a share, 3 cents better than estimates. revenues were also better than expected, coming in at more than $12 billion, an increase of 3.5% from last year. but projected revenue and earnings growth were below estimates, and that initially pressured the stock in
after-hours trading. jon fortt has the key takeaway from cisco's results. >> reporter: one takeaway from cisco's earnings is that the guidance is what matters. wall street was looking for year-over-year growth for q2, that's the upcoming quarter, of about 5%. it came in 0 to 2. and a big part of the reason is china. but not because china itself was suffering. china and india were doing pretty well for cisco themselves. it's because china's trading partners are suffering because of the slowdown in china's economy. that's what cisco's ceo had to say. and that led the stock to fall after hours. back to you. >> jon fortt reporting. amazon is in a class of its own. the company now the most expensive stock in the s&p 500, trading at a valuation of more than 900 times earnings. that's something you may want to consider if you are thinking of buying amazon or other pricey shares like it. dominick chu explains why investors are taking note of this eye-popping valuation. >> reporter: there's a reason
why some stock investors are concerned about the market, and it has to do with valuations and whether or not valuations are getting lofty. we're look at something called price to earnings ratio, or how much you pay in stock price for every $1 of earnings that the company generates. now, over time it's varied. we'll take a look at this chart here because back to the internet bubble peaks in 1999, the large cap s&p 500 traded at around 30 times earnings, paying $30 in stock price for every $1 in profits that it generated per share. now, that was back then. today we're nowhere near that level. we're closer to around 19. 19 times earnings. but the reason why there's a little bit of concern is you can see that upward trajectory. valuations are getting higher, and they're higher than they have been over the course of the past 15 or 16 years on average. now, there are specific companies that are driving a lot of headlines right now. namely some of the more momentum-oriented names. take a look at this. under armour athletic apparel,
gym clothes, gym shoes, that sort of thing. they currently trade at 95 times earnings. meaning it will cost you $95 in stock price for every $1 of earnings that under armour generates. these are all growth companies. so they may be justified in terms of valuations. but again, there's a debate right now. netflix, the online streaming giant, 305 times earnings. and then the biggest one of them all in the s&p 500, internet retail giant amazon.com, which currently trades at 972 times earnings. so when it comes to valuations, there's a debate right now. these are all very big growth companies and they've provided some stock returns, but have they risen by enough to justify some of these valuations we've seen? that's a big debate that's happening right now on wall street. for "nightly business report" i'm dominick chu. >> so let's continue that discussion and turn to our guests for their opposing views on this topic. don buckingham is chief investment officer at al frank asset management. he says he would not own expensive high-valuation stocks
like amazon. while kevin kelly, chief investment officer at recon capital partners, sees no risk in owning these types of stocks. gentlemen, welcome. nice to have you here. >> thanks for having me. >> so john, when you look at a stock like amazon, it certainly performs in terms of its business model. why would you not buy the stock? what's the danger there? >> well, i'm a value investor. i like to buy things that are on sale. market history shows the company's trading at inexpensive valuations tend to outperform those trading at extensive valuations. amazon is certainly an expensive stock. and believe me, it's earned a lot of its gains because earnings have exceeded expectations. revenue growth has been fantastic. but you are paying a pretty penny for the company today. and there are so many other companies out there that i know they don't have the growth that amazon has, but they're far, far less expensive. and in a market that as your segment there suggested can be expensive on some metrics, i'd
much rather focus on companies that are attractively price than try to chase after the hot stocks, especially one that's performed as well as amazon. >> so kevin, why don't you just give your rejoinder to john? i take it that you see a lot of promise in these stocks, though boy, those price-earnings ratios are astronomical. >> yeah. you're reporting on the price to earnings ratio, which are trailing not the forward ones -- if you look at the forward p/e ratio of amazon, it's around 125. and so what you need to consider is that their earnings are actually worth more. so if you break down amazon, they completely outperformed either other retailers or even i.t. plays. so would you rather pay up for quality earnings from amazon unlike ibm, who's completely down on the year and can't even get any traction in the cloud and even look at macy's or even j.w. nordstrom's in the discretionary space that can't gain any traction. they're down 30%. over the last quarter. so you want to get into names
that can grow in this slow growth environment. that's what they're doing. global growth is slowing to a tepid 2% pace. these are the companies that are growing overseas. take netflix, for example. their growth is faster overseas than it was here in the u.s. >> but let me come back at you if i might just a little bit there. when you're talking about the forward earnings multiple, i assume you're talking about the next 12 months. and for amazon it would fall all the way back to 105. well, 105 is still five times the market multiple, which leaves you very little room for error, which increases your risk, doesn't it? >> not really because the growth. where do you want to find the growth? they're able to tweak up their margins because growth is in a high-margin business, it's in their cloud computing space. amazon web services is clearly the dominant player across the board. it beats out microsoft. it has more cloud computing revenue than a stock like crm, right? so salesforce. so they're growth across the board and it drops to their
bottom line immediately. their margins are above 80% in that space. >> so john, take that on. take on that argument. >> well, again, there are two ways to invest. one is to go after growth. and i understand that you can be successful from time to time investing in growth stocks. we go back to 2000, 1999, the quote unquote new economy. for every amazon there were 175 sock puppets that ended up going to nothing. and again, i agree amazon is a great company. and believe me, they could actually cut a lot of spending and they could show substantial earnings growth. so i'm not necessarily saying that amazon is going out of business like the sock puppet. but what i'm telling you is that market history is filled with these hot stocks and when the music stops they can suffer tremendous declines. and again, i'd rather focus, and the other fellow mentioned microsoft. he mentioned ibm. these are value stocks that if you have a long-term time horizon, three five years, i'd much rather own those companies,
get paid to own them because they have generous dividend yieldsing alongt way. >> value traps, ibm. >> thanks, guys. john buckleham with al frank asset management. kevin kelly with recon capital partners. >> you could probably buy a sock puppet on amazon for all i know. to the economy now and the job market. the number of job openings climbed in september to more than 5.5 million. that is the second highest level on record. separately, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits last week remained unchanged at 276,000, near a 15-year low. and with the job market firming many economists think the federal reserve is on track to raise interest rates at its next meeting in december. today a number of fed officials didn't focus quite so much on december but on what might happen after that. kate rogers has more. >> reporter: fed officials are now starting to look at life beyond lift-off. while fed chair janet yellen today did not make mention of u.s. economic conditions or the fed's rate hike timing, plenty of others are chiming in. new york fed president bill
dudley pulled a crowd at the economic club of new york that tightening should be done slowly, adding that the fed will maintain accommodative policies even after rates are raised. >> i think it's quite possible that the conditions that the committee has established to begin to normalize monetary policy could soon be satisfied. in particular i'll be evaluating the incoming information to see if it confirms my expectation that growth will be sufficient to further tighten the u.s. labor market. after lift-off commences i expect the pace of tightening will be quite gradual. >> chicago fed president charles evans agrees with the notion, repeating comments he made on friday to cnbc's steve liesman. >> we need to think about the entire path because that's what's going to dictate how accommodative or restrictive our policy is. and so i think we need to have communications which indicate that the path is going to be gradual. >> both evans and dudley expressed caution due to concerns over inflation running below the fed's 2% target. but st. louis fed president jim
bullard says that both the fed's inflation and employment goals have already been reached. >> the policy rate remains near zero and the fed's balance sheet is more than 3.5 trillion, larger than it was before the crisis. prudence alone suggests that since the goals of policy have been met we should be edging the policy rate and the balance sheet back to more normal settings. >> reporter: also at the cato institute was richmond fed president jeffrey lacker, who's dissented at the past two meetings. lacker argues the fed should have already raised rates. he said earlier this week he could support a more rapid rate hike path. so while the fed looks toward its policy path in 2016, wall street waits for the action. for "nightly business report" i'm kate rogers. and while the federal reserve gets ready to potentially raise rates, the european central bank today hinted it may move the other way, toward additional economic stimulus. mario draghi, its chief, said inflation has weakened and he reasserted his willingness to expand the ecb's bond-buying program. and in greece thousands took
to the streets to protest austerity measures. the 24-hour walkout shut down public services, closed museums and archaeological sites, and canceled some flights. an estimated 20,000 people demonstrated in athens against the government's recent agreement to raise taxes and cut spending in a return for a third bailout. and still ahead, one of the biggest risks for retail this holiday season. ♪ ♪ an important but seldom talked about part of the economy may be on the wrong track. we're talking about demand for
transportation equipment, things like rail cars and big truck rigs. orders are down. way down. and that's not an upbeat sign. morgan brennan explains why. >> reporter: it may be the latest indicator of a softening economy. transportation equipment. over the past few years this sector, which includes everything from trucks to trains to planes, has been a bright spot. but some parts of the industry may be starting to weaken. wells fargo analyst justin ward says industrial production may have peaked in 2015. more concerning yet is the correlation between transportation equipment and machinery, two parts of industrial production showing signs of a slowdown. >> over the past 45 years anytime you had both of those components of industrial production declining concurrently, that pretty much demarked the u.s. recession. >> reporter: production of transportation equipment continues to grow thanks to auto and aerospace demand. but class a trucks, or semi trucks, are showing signs of
weakness. ftr reports that preliminary october orders, while up from september, were 45% lower than a year earlier. and rail car orders may be in trouble as well, plunging 83% last quarter to multidecade lows. according to data from the railway supply institute. this is a time of year when activity usually jumps as companies finalize budgets for the upcoming year and order accordingly. but as businesses slash their capital expenditures the effects are rippling out. it's the latest indicator that an industrial recession could be taking root. as commodities have collapsed and the stronger dollar has cut into exports energy and mining are already struggling. steel executives, for example, assert that a broader manufacturing downturn is already under way. >> it's happening. it's not imminent. for us it's more than a recession. >> reporter: production of aerospace and autos two key parts of the transportation equipment sector are still going strong.
but analysts are closely watching those two industry, warning that any additional weakness there could spell trouble for the broader economy. for "nightly business report" i'm morgan brennan. there are also concerns in the retail industry. inventory and a lot of it has been building. despite a scarcity of retail containers at the ports. and as courtney reagan tells us that's risky business, especially ahead of the holiday season. >> reporter: west coast port workers may not be unloading many containers full of retail goods. but that doesn't mean stores aren't fully stocked for the holidays. the port of long beach had its strongest october in eight years. but the port of oakland saw volumes decline 7%. the common thread at both? a lack of retail merchandise imports. but last year's west coast port threatened strike and subsequent long-lasting port congestion led to big delays getting merchandise to retail stores. which means inventory piled up before holiday merchandise hit
the shelves. couple that with retailers taking no chances and earlier deliveries this year and you get a glut of inventory across the industry that has to be sold. >> a number of weeks now we've been hearing reports of excess inventory and supply chains. so retailers have for one reason or another filled their warehouses and they're wondering about how robust consumer spending will be during the holiday season. so they're reluctant to import any more goods. >> reporter: calls ended the quarter with inventory levels up 6%. though that level's one that's improved. analysts have called out heightened inventory levels at lululemon, nike, under armour and vf corp. among others. macy's was among the retailers with lingering impacts from delayed merchandise. that on top of sluggish sales led the department store to end its third quarter with inventory levels 5% above last year, going into the holiday season. macy's says it will discount
merchandise to clear it out. good for shoppers. bad for profitability. walmart u.s. ceo greg foren says he's comfortable with the inventory levels but notes cooler temperatures would help sell that winter clothing. the retailer amped up the amount of product it's bought for the holiday season to make sure shoppers get what they want. >> we have bought deeper, and i think that's important. because that means if i'm a customer and i've made the effort to come to walmart i maybe have to park a long way away, had to stop what i was doing on thanksgiving. i want to know there's a pretty good chance that that item was available for me. >> reporter: well, stocked shelves are great for shoppers. it becomes a financial burden for retailers when it goes too far. for "nightly business report" i'm courtney reagan in san francisco. we begin tonight's market focus with another retailer reporting disappointing results. nordstrom this time had missed estimates partly because costs related to selling its credit card business weighed on those
results. the company also cut its annual earnings forecast. shares plunged in initial after-hours trading as you see it fall off the cliff there. during the regular session the stock was almost 2% higher on this down day at 63.47. big, big decline in filmed entertainment revenue and higher costs weighed on viacom's quarterlies. the owner of mtv and comedy central also saying the strong dollar hurt its international business. class a shares rose, however, today more than 2% to 51.39. add advance auto parts to the list of companies blaming the strong greenback for disappointing results. the auto parts retailer cut its 2015 profit forecast after its numbers missed the mark. part of its lowered forecast can be blamed on costs related to its acquisition of general parts international. shares slid about 15 1/2%. that's a pretty big slide. at 164.64. energizer holdings saw its earnings and revenue fall in its
most recent quarter as it was hurt by the timing of holiday shipments and also currency headwinds. the battery maker also offering a weak outlook saying earnings for 2016 will be below consensus. shares tumbled 9% to 36.08. and according to a filing, united technologies has an accelerated share repurchase agreement with two banks to buy back $6 billion worth of its company shares. that's part of the company's larger plan to buy back a total of $10 billion in shares this year. shares rose 1% to 99.24. applied materials reported results that met estimates. its sales estimates seem to be on track to meet targets as orders from chip makers looked like they might increase. shares rose in initial after-hours trading. during the regular session the stock fell 1 1/2% to 16.53. when apple's iphone 6s went on sale it broke records but recently some have questioned whether demand for that phone is waning just a bit.
earlier this week credit suisse lowered its earnings estimates for apple next year, and in a note said the company has cut its production orders for that phone by as much as 10%. eunice yoon in shanghai tells us about one company that is part of apple's supply chain. >> reporter: in shanghai's biggest electronics market, vendors like guan xiao wei are feeling the pin chf having too many iphone 6 ss for sale. he's had to cut the price by 7%, an unusual move he says so soon after the launch of one of apple's phones here. "if we compare the iphone 6s to last year's iphone 6 the 6s's sales are at least 1/3 less than the 6," he says. some vendors misjudged the market demand, stocked too many new iphone 6ss and are now
struggling. apple told 48 million iechltphones in the fourth quarter. the first to include the iphone 6s and 6s plus. and it guided revenue upwards for the current quarter. apple wouldn't comment for the story, instead referring us to its latest results. but some analysts say an apparent build-up of iphone 6ses is affecting the supply chain. the gate at apple suppliers in shanghai can be mistaken for a bus stop. workers carry their belongings as police move on. these migrants have been told, as the sign says, that the taiwan-based company has stopped recruiting here. the workers here tell us that pegatron went on a hiring spree over the summer in anticipation of the sale of the iphone 6s, but now they say tham of the production lines have been shut down. many of the workers are choosing to leave. others have agreed to be transferred to another factory, where they say they're being told they won't be making the iphone 6s. because of the sensitivity, few were willing to show their faces
on camera. the phone doesn't sell very well, therefore, the orders have dropped, this worker says. the production lines were dismantled and some workers didn't want to be transferred. so some left, and others went home, she says. pegatron told the taiwan stock exchange and cnbc that operations were normal, including production capacity and workforce allocation, even for the iphone 6s. for "nightly business report" i'm eunice yoon in shanghai. coming up, winning streak. he doubled his company's revenues and profits and made the stock one of the hottest investments on wall street. find out who "fortune" named its business person of the year. ♪
♪ here to look at what to watch for tomorrow, lots of important economic data coming out, including the producer price index, an important measure of inflation. retail sales are also out. and a report on consumer sentiment is out as well. so that's what to watch for on friday. workers are paying more for their health care. according to a new study, the average amount employees contribute to their plans has risen more than 130% over the past decade. the report shows that combined premium and out-of-pocket costs will surpass $5,000 per person for the first time next year. and the trend higher is expected to accelerate. "fortune" magazine out with its businessperson of the year. topping the list this year is nike's ceo mark parker, who has doubled earnings and profits at the company since he took over
the top job in 2006. coming in at number 2, facebook's mark zuckerberg. rounding out the top three is andrew wilson of electronic arts. and suze gharib is here. she's "fortune's" special correspondent. and a contributor to nbr. good to have you with us. how does "fortune" put together this list? what are the bases? and what made mr. parker stand out? >> it was a surprise, wasn't it? well, there were ten financial metrics. among them, how did revenues and profits grow over one year and three years. how did the stock perform. total return to sharltds, stuff like that. then there's some qualitative stuff about business impact and leadership. but mark parker, a lot of people were guessing who it was going to be. and ceo of nike. and when the reporter from "fortune" went to go interview phil knight, who founded nike, the first words out of his mouth were "what took you so long? it's about time that somebody did a story on mark parker." an interesting thing about him,
tyler, is that he's not one of these ceos who's a big headline grabber. >> not a high-profile guy. >> he's not abig big ego. he's an introfrt. he's also been with the company for 40 years. didn't come from finance, didn't come from sales, but designing sneakers and he still gets very involved with -- >> but they've been so innovative with their products and that's one of the things that's been -- it's revolutionized the industry. >> new technology. you know what's interesting, sue, is here's another statistic. nike commands the whole athletic shoe market. whether it's running or basketball or soccer. 62% of the market. >> i was interested in number 3, andrew wilson of electronic arts. another name a lot of people don't know. they may know his products but they don't know him. >> right. electronic arts, the video game company. people thought it was left for dead a few years ago. losing money year after year. he came in a few years ago, doubles profits and revenues. the stock was something like $15, now in the 70s.
very successful in terms of his track record. the consoles are selling, believe it or not. profits are back. and he's got this new game -- >> quick note on travis kalanik of uber. i thought this was based on financial metrics. they don't have a stock price yet. >> they don't have profits either, tyler. they don't have the metrics. but when you're doing a list on business influencers this has been a very influential company. >> you can say that again. susie, great to see you. >> great to see both of you. >> that is "nightly business report" for tonight. i'm sue herera. thanks for watching. >> and thanks from me as well. i'm tyler mathisen. have a great evening, everybody. we'll see you right back here tomorrow night. ♪
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