tv U.S. Farm Report NBC October 25, 2015 6:00am-7:00am CDT
canidates planning to reduce it by 5 to 15 percent. the wheat and corn taxes will see more immediate results, possible being removed all together. the current president has clashed with farmers since taking office in 2007. that's when she tried to raise the soybean tax to 45 percent. soybeans support a third of government spending. china is lifting restrictions on u-s pork processing plants, opening the door for as much as half of u-s pork processed in the u-s. china banned pork from u-s plants after officials found traces of ractopamine starting a year ago. imports can now come from 14 u-s plants and warehouses. china is the largest buyer of pork. a supply and demand imblance is creating a slow recovery in the global pork market. a new report from rabobank shows adverse exchange rates hurt pork trade in the third quarter of this year. and with elevated price levels today, the remainder of this year will be challening. rabobank says looking longer
importing countries, and how that will impact trade. the u-s is putting the breaks on milk production, with the latest numbers showign the slowest rate of increase all year. the u-s department of agriculture says milk ouput grew less than one half of a percent in september. and looking at the third quarter, production rose almost one percent. california continues to lead the pack in the decline, with the state milk numbers down 3 point 6 percent on the month. the state's also losing cows, with usda showing the herd down one thousand head. south dakota continues to perform the best-- cow numbers are up over 10 thousand head from a year ago. milk production is up 12 percent. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with a look at next week's weather. mike.
thanks, tyne, well for parts of the country it will be a little wetter week although in texas it can't be wetter than what you've seen over the past three to four days. some of this drought severe exceptional drought will probably be wiped right off the map here within a couple weeks. it usually takes a little while to get rid of severe drought, but you're just going to have so much rain, already have, and we'll get some more that we'll see some of this drought just go away by the next we show it. still severe drought out west even though there are chances of moisture coming your way as well. so let's go day by day. we'll start off on monday.l there that's system. another one, this is not the one that gave all the rain over the past
few days but you're still seeing more rain out of this one for especially southeast texas, parts of southern mississippi valley, as well. stalled front, carolinas, northern georgia, maybe a shower or two, maybe a shower northern michigan form a cool front and storm system coming in to the west. so washington, oregon, norther california getting some rain showers. you can see chillier air has settled once again into the middle and eastern portions of the country by wednesday then that storm out of the gulf comes north. the storm in the west comes east. and this is a huge weather maker. lots of rain for northern plains into the ohio valley parts of the great lakes, tennessee valley. some of that will be soaking rains, another decent system. this is the second one coming into the west coast, giving some rain there. that ones moves into the four corner region on friday, giving showers and even some thunderstorms again into parts of texas, new mexico, but cooler and even colder air moves into much of corn belt as we head through next week. back in our next half hour with our longer range outlook. thanks, mike. when we come back, matt bennett
me matt bennett of bennett consulting, and chip mellinger of blue reef agri marketing. i'm hearing there's still some old crop left out in the countrysides, so if some of these farmers haven't seen an incentive to sell that old crop yet, what's your advice for them? chip? >> well, if you've held it this long you probably have to hold a little while longer. at least get through the january crop report, maybe into the last half of winter, and see if there's any developments, whether that be some dry weather in brazil, you know, a drop in yields, corn yields on the january crop report. if you've held it this long you probably have to give it a little more time and see how this thing shakes out in winter, but i
we talked about it last week, but basis is just all over the board in some areas, and you guys were telling me like in some areas of indiana there's just not a lot of corn, so basis is really, really good. so how does this all shake out, matt? >> well, i think what we have to understand is where basis is really, really hot is where the crop wasn't all that good, obviously, and so those guys are going to have a harder time maybe going ahead and pulling the trigger like chip's talking. they're probably going to want to wait just a little bit longer because if i had less of a crop than what i thought i was going to have it's pretty tough for me to sell that at $4 cash, even though that's a number we all like to see. a guy that had 240bushel corn, he'd love to sell at $4 cash, but a lot of those guys we've been talking about are 45 and 50 under. so how do we get the corn from those areas over here? obviously we've got to keep pushing the basis, and i think basis is trying to do quite a bit of the work right now. basis is telling us that the crop isn't so good in some places. i think as we move forward we're probably going to see that's going to
crop is that good and the crop's piling up on the ground? what are they doing to try to get that out and how could that help other areas? >> well, i think it adds on with what matt was saying. in my opinion in the eastern corn belt it feels a lot like 2012. i mean, this basis is just screaming 3040 over. the difference is in 2012 nobody had a crop. this year is just a logistics issue. the crop's all in the northwest corn belt. there's two, three million bushel piles on the ground. there's still crop in the field. in my opinion part of the function of this basis is to get the spread wide enough between the eastern corn belt where they're corn deficit, the western corn belt where they have piles on the ground and make it profitable to rail that corn east, so i think there's a little bit of an upper limit to this basis, and i'm a little cautious in, i guess, reading too much into the strong basis thinking, hey, that means we have to rally or the crop's not there. in the big picture it's still a big crop even if they
still going to be one of the top two or three crops we've ever raised. >> so considering that, matt, what does it take to rally these prices substantially? >> well, i think a substantial rally is going to take like chip was talking, we're going to have to drop the yield back just a little bit. >> do you think that will happen? >> i think that it's going to come back just a little bit, but i've been dead wrong on corn yield probably three reports in a row. >> easy to do this year. >> so you don^t want to take that to the bank. i do think it's probably going to have to scale back just a little bit. i think there's individual states such as illinois and indiana that need to come down just a little bit more. i'm not sure iowa's quite where they have it even though there's really good corn in northern iowa. there's other parts of iowa that are struggling. i think moving forward we're definitely going to be keeping a close eye on the safrihna crop for brazilians because that's where a lot of the acres are going to be planted. a lot of people are planting beans first go around, and i think there's
crop. >> yeah, we'll get into that a little bit. chip, in your mind, what does it take to have a big move in both corn and beans, and is it likely that we could see that? >> well, yeah, i think weather or a major production problem somewhere, and that could be eastern europe or ukraine, brazil or argentina, so unfortunately that's just not in the immediate future here. that's going to be down the road a ways. we're already dry in many parts of really dry in the eastern corn belt. i don't want to beat a drum just yet, i'm not saying that, but if by february or march we don't get some rain or snowfall, you know, we're sitting pretty dry in the eastern corn belt so, that can become an issue too. it's going to take a major weather scare and unfortunately that's down the road a ways. >> all right, well, we're going to get into the acreage battle as well as talk about south american production, and we need to hit on livestock too, so we're going to do all that when we come back on u.s. farm report. receive a free trial of the daily market letter in getting knowledge about current market conditions
welcome back to u.s. farm report. well, here we are late october. i guess it's never too early to talk about acreage, but, chip, in your mind does corn need to buy acreage for 2016? >> well, i think some of that's still to be determined. it depends on the next couple months how this south american crop goes for beans, so beans are a big part of this equation. demand's been phenomenal for beans here, especially recently. i think it depends also on what our final corn yield's going to be in january. we're already talking about under a billion six. carryout's pretty good if they cut other yields, bushel, bushel and a half, two bushels it's going to tighten that carryout up. so yeah, i can make the case for that, but i think it's a little too early to tell and we got get out to kind of january or february to get a little better picture of that. >> you know, matt, we're hearing from a lot of grain producers that are really just in a tight situation, so what's the mood
what's your advice to prepare for 2016? >> well, you know, it doesn't take a whole lot of magazines to be picked up that you read that we're burning through equity. a lot of guys have burnt through equity. it's been a really tough last 18 months. we transitioned out of a time of record profitability into a time where commodity prices dipped enough that it put some people in the red, and so looking towards next year i think a lot of guys are kind of sitting around here this fall trying to figure out what's their acreage mix going to be. and i think as chip's saying i can make a case for it. we're going to need maybe somewhat of a rally in the corn market. i don't know what it's going to be. we're looking at insurance price 10cents under last year right now. d16 is 10cents under last year's spring insurance price, i think. with input costs being steady, to me that would suggest we're going to need something to be able to hold acreage status quo. now, the one thing that's on the other side of that is soybean prices are cheaper than what we were a year ago. but whenever we're burning through equity a lot of guys are going to be trying to find a way
comfortable that they're not going to lose a whole lot of money on. >> and which crop's that? >> well, it depends for every producer, but for a guy that's a crop sharer or a guy that owns his ground, he can make quite a bit of money in corn or beans right now, either one. >> chip, when we look at south america, specifically argentina, elections this weekend. they're talking about reducing the taxes on corn, soybeans, wheat substantially. does that open the door for a flood of exports out of that country where farmers have been holding onto that crop? >> yeah, potentially. i think that's a good point. i think that may be one thing the argentine farmer has been holding tight fisted with beans for the past couple of years because it's kind of their inflation hedge. if you get a new government in there that is going to cut export taxes, that could alter the supply situation a little bit and put some more of their beans on the market. so right now that's a benefit to us because a couple of those candidates have kind of mentioned they're going to reduce those taxes. that
selling from their farmer has dried up, and our bean exports have been pretty strong the last three or four weeks here, so definitely that could be something that we really need to watch. in a short run it might be supportive to us. in the long run that could maybe put a little more supply of beans on the market. >> at the same time, we have the dollar at a tenweek high, you said, so >> yeah, the dollar's been screaming. that's mostly due to some weakness in europe and some hints that they're going to do some for quantitative easing there. and that's been something that has really without much to talk about right now fundamentally for the grain market, as soon as that dollar started rallying it just capped our corn and bean rally earlier this week. so unfortunately we're tied to these outside markets. the dollar's rallying. that's a little bit of a negative head wind in the short run here. >> matt, we're going to talk a lot about feed lots coming up on this show, but i was just in texas and these feed lot operators, it's a sting right now. we're looking at huge
once we could get through some of these heavier weights there's tight supplies, but for right now we're still looking at huge losses per head. >> well, anybody who studies the markets know cattle are very cyclical in nature, so we've obviously had a time of historic profitability here in the last couple years. a lot of these guys have really done well. we were talking before the show, the cowcalf guys, they're still in pretty good shape. they're still doing just fine for the most part, but the feed lots, they haven't been able to bank a margin here for quite some time, and i think earlier in the year they were making probably a little bit more money than what they're making now so it makes this a little bit easier to stand. but i think moving forward i don't see prices rallying substantially. >> chip, do you agree with that? >> well, i think we've expanded a little bit. we had better grass conditions in almost the entire midwest and plains than we've had for years, and i think there's still some cattle just now still coming off the grass, so i think that's backed up the supply a little bit and i do think maybe the cow side has
higher into new highs? i'm not sure, but you know, it's going to be difficult going forward because with highpriced feeders we're not seeing very many gains out there right now. >> yeah, very much so. all right, when we come back we're going to get their closing thoughts. for 150 years cargill has been working side by side with farmers in the agricultural community. thank you for being part of this success. we continue to look forward and are excited to offer online grain
us with? >> well, i would say if you're in the eastern corn belt you have to definitely shop your basis around. there's strong basis. do it now. don't wait till december because the opportunity might be now. and also we have to get in the mentally on this crop and even next year's crop. we have to become willing sellers of rallies and protect that instead
right. matt bennett? >> yeah, i think he makes a good point, and i think producers are going to have to understand exactly where they're at. they've got to know what their profitability is because it's pretty tough to market a crop when you don't know exactly where you're at. we just don't have a whole lot of margin. we can't get too cute with this market, so if we get rallies i think i want to be a willing seller of soybeans especially, maybe give corn just a little bit more time. >> all right, thank you both. we appreciate it. stay with us, john phipps joins us and talks about whole milk and how it could actually have a win, from a recent decision out of washington, d.c. is going to do that when we come back. this is machinery pete inviting you to check out my new website, machinerypete.com. offering farmers tens of thousands of used equipment listings to search. let machinery pete help
guidelines for americans has been in the news as usda officials work on the latest revision. while the controveries over sustainability and meat consumption have been headlines another rather surprising development came to light. it could be that the avoidance of whole milk in favor of reduced fat types may not yield the health benefits we thought just a few years ago. now after decades of data, there is countering evidence that saturated fats, as found in whole milk are not entirely bad for you. while still heavily debated, one possibile reason is what replaces fat in our diet. apparently, if we add more carbohydrates we can actually increase our health risk more than continuing a higher fat
fats, there are strong data of better outcomes. one very popular reaction to this news like this is to throw your hands in the air and snarl, "next year they will change their minds again" and write off dietary research as little more than astrology for food. this cynicism is unfounded and unhelpful, in my opinion. food science changes because new and better evidence becomes available. with modern technology now advancing what we know about what we eat in greater detail, i expect many similar revisions in the future. it does not diminish the efforts of scientists to offer their best advice today from current research. such new discoveries also offer a chance for producers - in this case dairy
instead of criticizing past miscalculations by nutrition experts, i hope to hear encouragement and praise for efforts to better understand how dairy products can fit into optimal diets. in short, if whole milk does suddenly come back into scientific favor, don't dance in the endzone - be ready with a business plan. thanks, john. with feedyard losses so steep and operators on the brink of financial collapse, we'll see why prices still have a chance to recover. that's our
farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead this weekend. it's a feedlot frenzy. we'll tell you why balance sheets are bleeding red. in leave a legacy, strong family support helped one dairy farmer pursue his passion for both serving and feeding our country. john tackles the topic of prison pork in customer support. and al pell has a tarheel tractor this week. now for the headlines, after intense
week it's making the switch. subway is the latest fast food chain to remove antibiotics from its meat supply, but denies the pressure from advocacy groups is the reason. the company with the slogan "eat fresh" says it will eliminate antiobiotics in all its meat, making it the largest chain to adopt the production practice. subway will start next year with chicken and turkey, then eventually moving to antiobiotic free pork and beef in all of its 27 thousand stores. rabo agrifinance's don close told me looking down the road, he thinks demand from u-s export markets instead of u-s customers could drive the move to antiobiotic free meat production in the u-s.
issue, the ractopamine issue, ultimiately if we take the lead australia has demonstrated, we'll probably have to be more accomodating to get the wide acceptance into china."> close says it still hasn't been determined if making the switch to anti-biotic free meat production is feasible for suppliers, and what impact it will have on food prices. the epa mine spill could have been prevented. taht's according to a new interior department investigation of the coloardo gold mine incident that dumpted 3 million gallons of wastewater into the river. it tainted waters in three states. the investigation found it could have been avoided if e-p-a chekcked on water levels inside the gold mine before digging into its entrance. yngenta's c-e-o is stepping down. mike mack announced his resignation for the end of october, sending syngenta's stock 5 percent higher. c-f-o john ramsay will
comes just months after syngenta turned down several takeover attempts by monsanto. mack was very vocal about his desire to keep syngenta operating as a separate company. in his resignation announcement, mack said he believes it's an approopriate time for the company to benefit from persepectives of a new leader, calling current market conditions challenging. we could be on pace to have the warmest year on record. according to our reporting partners at agweb, unless the weather makes a sharp turn to the cool side, global temperatures could set records. noaa says september had the warmest average global land and ocean temperatures since records began in 1880. noaa says the u-s had the second warmest september since 1998, but spain and alaska saw the coldest month in more than a decade. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with a look at the long- range foreast. mike, noaa says we had a very warm september. that sure made for perfect harvest weather this year. thanks, tyne it definitely
little wet weather patterns as we head through next couple of weeks you can see jet stream showing a troph kind of digging into the east, especially into the second hal of this week. that's going to have a lot of rain ahead of it then a quick shot of cold air that there's just little ripple after little ripple coming eastward, some of those going to get west coast areas that haven't seen much rain over the past two to three months with moisture. so let's check out the 30 day outlook. going above normal for west coast, northern half of rockies right down through central and southern mississippi valley into southeast. below normal for much of west texas, new mexico, below normal for far northwest and northeastern great lakes. precip over next 30 days. from mid atlantic to florida, southern half of mississippi valley from ohio valley southward through southern half of plains into the southwest, above normal expected. below normal for far northwest and far northern tier of states, great lakes and new england. tyne thanks, mike. as
rough go. a dramatic turn in prices sent profits spiraling downward leaving operators trying to survive. but even as balance sheets bleed red, our farm journal report shows us why some are hopeful the final outcome of the year may not be so bad. what started as a bull market made a quick reversal this fall.
pork industry, as news outlets discovered the obama adminstration eliminated pork from prison menus. while that decision was overturned and pork will remain in prisons, john phipps gives us his take. john. on facebook we received this comment from mark schwendau: "would like to hear your take on obama's ruling about pork not being served in federal prisons. i do not believe inmates voted they do not want pork and think some investigative journalism is in order before riots break out." mark, we talked about this briefly on friday's free for all on agritalk, so you can listen the discussion on myfarm radio. but here is my view of this essentially silly event. first, this tumult is wildly disproportionate. look at the numbers: there are a little over 200,000 federal prisoners in the
pounds - they represent 10 million pounds of consumption. ill admit this sounds impressive until you compare it to out total pork production of over 20 billion pounds. so we're have a major pork producer tantrum over less than 5 hundredths of one percent of the market. if the national pork producers and sentator grassley have time to devote to this extremely minor issue i suggest they have a confused system of priorities. second, this decision is was not made by president obama, but he does bear untimate reponsibility, just like the ceo of cargill is to blame for the screwup in my bean settlement last week. again, seems a impractical way of looking at how the world works. finally, senator grassley
like you he has no evidence to disprove it either. i realize it is now acceptable to simply deny any fact you don't agree with, but if prison officials do produce surveys that support their claims, i doubt either grassley or the nppc will apologize for calling the administrator a liar. finally, as best i could determine, about 15-20% of federal inmates are muslim and proscribed from eating pork. that alone might drive the ranking down significantly. pork producers and politicians do not enhance their images or further their interests by manufacting outrage from tiny irritations. it's small wonder we see little progress on real problems facing farmers and congress when this is what consumes their time.
e a legacy is brought to you by dup pioneer-- helping you get the right product on the right acre. science with service, delivering succeess."> chasing our dreams is often a difficult or overwhelming road. in leave a legacy, the wisconsin dairy news introduces us to a dairy farmer finding a way to pursue two passions thanks to love and support from his family. alan and stephanie hughes are teaching their young sons, bryce and gavin, the responsibility of
they love being out in the barn, i mean, how nice is it to raise your children on a dairy farm?" on their small dairy farm in pittsville, wisconsin, the boys even help their dad fix his antique tractors when they're not busy working with the cows. "good job, give me five! give me five!" somewhere along the way their father, alan, went from refurbishing his grandfather's farmall-20 tractor to fixing up f- 16 fighter jets as a member of the 115th fighter wing of the wisconsin air national guard. "this is something that i've wanted to do my whole life, but the one reason why i did it at this point in time was because of the support and encouragement that i received from stephanie." while the couple shared a dream of running a small dairy farm, alan also had a dream of serving in the military. so, stephanie encouraged alan to pursue his dream and dedicated herself to running the family farm. "i couldn't wait for him to get a hold of that passion or that thing that he wanted to do in
life. and he has that now." alan's work ethic and motivation, which were second nature on the farm, helped with his military training. "for me, i don't know if there's anything else that would have been as rewarding as serving in the military." knowing that stephanie is able to take care of the farm and the family makes it a little easier for alan to pursue his dream. "that's a big part of the reason why i didn't join the military earlier is because i didn't want to give up the farming and the agriculture side of thing, and i'm very lucky to have found a way to do both." and that's wisconsin dairy news. our thanks to the wisconsin milk marketing board for sharing their story. your can learn more about farm journal's legacy project by visiting farm journal legacy project dot com. when we come back, al pell takes us to the east coast for a classic tractor.
from the tarheel state this week. mike turner shares his 56 international harvester farmal 100 with us. while this may be a great garden tractor for mike, he has some sentimental reasons for bringing this classic back to life. this tractor came about an hour and a half from here. i've been looking for a tractor to cultivate my gargen with. i didn't have a tractor i could plant without having to use a hoe, use a tiller. so ive been looking for a cultivating tractor and the farmall made a good series that does that. this one has got a little more sentimental value to it. i grew up on a farmall 100 when i was a little fella. learned how to drive 10 or 12 years old on a farmall 100 so when i found this one on line in reedsville north carolina about an hour and a half away i called the guy up and drove up there to take a look at it. he said he had just posted it on facebook. he said
he had 4 people to call me, on craigslist. i said im on my way to reedsville. so i took off to reedsville, and went up and looked at it, made a deposit and brought it back home a couple of days later. not knowing much about the history of how well the tractor had been taken care of i put in the shop and started doing maintenance on it. changing the oil, checking the fluids, greasing it, putting new grease fittings on it. things that really needed to be done to it. i asked the guy when i bought when the last time they changed the oil, he said well it was changed 3 years ago when i bought it so i new it needed an oil change. couple of weeks ago i found a set of cultivators i wanted. the sweeps came with it on the back and some round disks used for hilling. i had to buy a couple of letters on the front to farmal. one of them was gone so i bought a little to try to bring it back up to good shape. and ive got a full set of decals for it i just hadn't ive got to find out where they go so im sure im putting them in their proper place. as president of the tractor club this year, the lord gramalack cultural heritage association i thought it would be appropriate for the president
to have a tractor he could show, so i have a tractor. and this weekend, we want to pay tribute to the helmer united meothodist churh of helmer, indiana. located int eh far northeastern corner of indiana, the congregation is celberating 160 years. congratulations. please, stay with us-- cropwatch is next.
sights is a white ocean of open cotton bolls. it really doesn't get much prettier than that. jim nunn captured the sight-- this is in his field in haywood county, tennessee that he think will yield 2 and a half bales or more per acre. he says yields have been excelent in west tennessee, and statewide, producers could even see a record crop. but there are interesting dynamics this year with the fewest acres of cotton
acres of harvest left, it's time to get comfortable. or at least that's what jeremy wolf tells us. he's from homer, illinois and says corn ad beans have both yieled better than expected this year. that helped him have a nice, relaxing morning this week with the sunshine warming his toes. and there's nothing like standing in a field, watching harvest a nice, crisp autumn day. but cleve is giving us a unique, aerial view of harvest in clay county, indiana. this is footage taken with a drone. and a fun fact, the koheler's are actually distant cousin of our own al pell. as always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag-at-u-s-farm-report-dot-
kurdish assault on isis prison releasing hostages. an american hero killed. hear them roar. you're going to hear me roar >> hillary clinton rolls out serious star power in iowa, katy perry and her husband, the former president, hitting the campaign trail for the for the time while donald trump slams jeb bush with a harsh attack. >> he's meeting today with mommy and daddy and they're working on their campaign. and blurred truth? a new round of fighting in the blurred lines lawsuit. pharrell williams and robin thicke like you've never seen them before. >> do you consider yourself an honest person? >> no. >> newly released depp silgz video as the battle rages on. was their song a ribpoff of a marvin gaye classic, on october 25, 2015. >> from nbc news, this is