bowl. remember, it's just a game and much more powerful forces like the dollar, the fed, and oil will reduce these stocks to sisile playthings even if the underlying companies report fabulous numbers. dino in connecticut. dino! >> caller: thanks for taking my call. my question is on microsoft. next week they report earnings, would you be a buyer? >> i was just telling kyle, the stage manager that microsoftl i can't believe it was dipped down a couple bucks. i should have said -- but it wasn't -- there was no chance. i think the quarter is going to be excellent and i always invite nadel to the show and i promise to wear my black t-shirt if he comes on. michael in new york, michael. >> caller: jim, my question is on gilead. i bought it at around $97 at your recommendation. is this a whole or sell? >> gilead up almost three bucks today, it's too cheap to sell.
bob? >> caller: hello, jim, i hope you're warm and safe in the blizzard. jim, i was able to get on your show six months ago and this is a fofoow-up question. a close friend is a leading oncologist in philadelphia and he told me to buy tg therapeutics. i did and heard michael weiss on your show and was blown away and i bought more. tg presented in december and their blood cancer data was outstanding. they also discuss their opportunity in auto immune disease for the first time and that's amazing. i plan to buy more and want to get your opinion. >> the fundamentals are divorced from what's happening in the stocks and weiss is good, we had him on the show. here's the problem, it's a speculative stock. if you look pat gilead and cell genehey are so people people say why do i need to go down to tg therapepeics but if you hold on to the speculative the stock and hit it out of the park, you'll make money. harvey in florida.
>> caller: how are you doing? >> i'm doing all right, how about you, harve? >> caller: okay. i have a question for you. >> okay. >> caller: i'm a retired senior investor trading in my 401(k) and a long time investors in nycb, new york community bank announced a merger with astoria federal. i will lose thousands of dollars with the dividend going from 25 cents to 17. i expect to make that up with capital gain the president incycynd the community banks expect this is merger to be 6% beginning this year and 20% towards the end of 2016. they will report their earnings january 27 before the market opens. >> i like nycb, i can like the acququition of astoria. i don't know if it's safe at 7% yield but that's a good combination. goodor everybody. now, i expect next week will
week reducing big time earnings to playthings. you know what we have tonight? after another wild week on the erages, i wouldn't g too cozy with the recent bounce. ll tell you what neeee to go right in order to keep this market in check. then record sales from the auto industry seemed to save auto stocks. what gives? i'm investigating. ding-dong, avon is calling but with shares down nearly 70% over the past year, is it worth answering the door or should you
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about what needs to go right for us to have a sustainable rally rather than just a tradable bounce. what it looks like we're having now. i woululsay right at this moment, at this minute we need the dollar to stop going higher but it soared today. this is the quarterly earnings season where ceos qre no longer getting a pass on currency. if your earnings are weak because of the super freaking strong dollar, so be it, too bad. it counts and it can't be dismissed as oneneff like it's been for so many quarter ins the last couple years. yup, this time the dollar has become a cost like labor or interest payments or raw goods, sga for the accounting aficionados out there. in other words, no more asterisks no more "if the dollar had stayed constant you could add back $1.2 billion in lost income" as ibm told us after a bone-crushing quarter. nobody's buying it anymore. there's no add-back. there's no constant currency.
anything we expect the dollar to go higher because our country's central bank is is tightening while everyone else is debasing their currency to take away our business so stock buyers are on strike when they hear about how the strong dollar crippled earnings because they know the greenback is going to get stronger still and this is the new normal. you know what it's like? to analogize some of us are old enough to remember when major league baseball switched from 154-game season to the current 162 games more than 50 years ago. initially every time a player broke a season record for hits or rbis or home runs we asterisked it noting there was no way that achievement should have counted given the elongated season. we were using two sets of figures to make comparisons and we asked what the baseball players' numbers would have looked like under a constant 154-game season. then one day we stopped doing it. the records were the records. we've hit that point with the dollar. there's simply no reason why we shouldn't extrapolate a stronger dollar whenever other country is
down. the 154-game dollar is now history. second fundamental at odds with today's rebounding market? we can't start cheering oil is higher and decide there's a new trend at work with this rally back above $32. this monster move in crude reflects we were too far down short term based on the entry of iran into the marketplace and how much it can initially deliver. that said, the issue with oil is pply, not demand. and while the big trigger puller money managers may want to lump oil in with steel or the rest of the commodities that are going down because there's much less demand -- thank you, china -- it's not true. it's pure fiction. demand for oil and natural gas is up year over year not down like copper or iron or steel. have statistics that demonstrate this it's just that the demand isn't up enough to offset the additional supply coming online everay. that's why this blip up in crude pricing doesn't register as much fundamentally as technically. there's so many oil companies
they would gladly sell oil. when i listen to the small to medium sized independent oil producers, i know they need to raise capital now to pay the bills from payroll to the interest on their debt to oil company services charges. there's only way two ways for companies to stay afloat unless they have a top notch balance sheet. either cut or suspend dividends as chesapeake did today or raise monein the market. any market. right now the debt market isis pretty much closed off to these guys. just look at how the banks with oil exposure were clobbered when they reported. watch the high yield market because it's repulsed by any oil issuance and there's a total buyer strike made worse by outflows in distressed and leveraged bond funds. that means they have to issue equity and hit you with massive delusion. in short, almost under no scenario do oil stocksksin, even with oil moving up like it did. finally, earnings reports of individual companies. to be blunt, on average, suboptimal. a few companies seem to have
you think a company like american express linked with travel might have seen some uptick? nope. instead it's doing one more guide down and shareholders with annihilated today with the shocking $7.58, or 12.1% decline. in one session. american express, the bluest of blue chips at one point. same with ibm which gave you no choice but to take down numbers. general electric may have reaffirmed its guidae and beaten the numbers but we saw a slowdown in organic sales. with 3% growth, they're robust, just not as robust as before. union pacific and csx disappointed. alcoa was caught in the commodity conundruru with the prospect of fewer interest rate hikes we thought just a few weeks ago and an up tick in d loans for the oil patch, these earnings were regarded as disappointing. meanwhile, intel gave us a nasty outlook. add insult to injury, boeing is cutting production of its signature plane.
peeking going on to me. despite today's rally, if we assess where we really are, we can include the macro situation has gotten worse for us, especially the seemingly coordinated impact of weeker foreign currencies along with a federal reserve that wants to tighten not to mention an oil blip that isn't going to rescue oil companies s earnings that can't justify higher prices for many stocks right now. what are we seeing here? i think we're witnessing an oversold rally that could sow the seeds of its demise. asast bulls its way higher to levels that don't make that much sense based on the earnings we're seeing. unless the fed blinks on wednesday when it issues its interest rate statement and we hear about data dependency and how the newfound weakness will forestall the grand weakness in 2016, it will be hard to sustain the advance beyond the oversold bounce. here's the strong line, the strong dollar with the momentarily stronger oil prices and suboptimal earnings aren't reason to dump stocks wholesale but taken together there's a
yourself for a weakness if the fed persists in a negative narrative for the stock market as well as the economy in general. however, the fed chief janet yellen pulls her boot from the jugular and says "we see the pain, we're going back to data dependence" this spike could turn into a ray as that they would reverse the strong dollar. much more "mad money" ahead. carmax and auto nation have been stalalng lately so what does their decline mean for the overall auto industry? i'll reveal it. avon has been in business for 125 years but history hasn't done much for the stock. i'm sitting down the ceo to see if this iconic american brand can rise again. and while most of its competitors are struggling with u.s. store growth, starbucks seems to be putting g up in spades. so why did the company take a hit after earnings?
sheri mccoy. i hate to be a because kill after the market's second decent day in a row but keeping you in touch with reality is a key part of my job and right now even though averages are moving higher, we're seeing disturbing signs that a hugely important industry -- the automobile business -- could be peaking here in the united states. remember i've been warning about
the federal reserve started tighten last monththecause higher interest rates make it more difficult and expensive to get financing when you're trying to buy a new car. what's really worrisome is what's happening to two of the nation's largest auto dealers, that's autonation and carmax which have seen their stocks plummet 23.5% and 15% respectively just since the new year began. those are precipitous declines and they suggest the market has reached a verdict on whether the auto business has peaked, finding it guilty of all charges. why am i so concerned about the weakness in these stocks? let's consider these companies. autototion is america's largest automobile retailer: 340 franchises, 15 sates selling both new and used vehicles. carmax is the top used car salesman in the country with 158 locations in 76 different markets, although they have a smaller new car operation.
declines in these two stocks so disconcerting is t tt for ages autonation and carmax were total market darlings. they had massive year runs, autonation rocketing 1,600% from its 2008 lows to its peak last spring and carmax soared about 1,200% over roughly the same period. for years these stocks spent so much timimon the new high list they could havavapplied for citizenship. [ rim shot ] the source of their strength? simple. total new car sales in the united states kept increasing steady each year since 2009 from 10.4 million at the depths of the great recession up to 17.4 million in 2015, a lot of chatter about $18 million. plus with ultra low interest consumers were able to get affordable financing in order to buy these cars. but then the stocks of these dealers hit a brick retaining wall. as of today autonation is down 32% from its high last july,
highest last april. how do we explain these hammerings? let's star with carmax where the stock peaked on april 2 where the stock surged following a blowout quarter. back then, sentiment for the automobile industry was at its rosiest, the oracle of omaha, warren buffett, recently acquired van tuul group, the nation's fifth largest auto retailer and general motors hit glorious 14-month high. but within a few months, the bad news started trickling in when carmax reported mid-june, it delivered in-line earnings, not so hot when you consider people come to expect a flat out earnings beat from these guys, along with weaker-than-expected revenues. what a different picture from what we were used to. the average selling price for used vehicles declined by 1.6%. after that quarter, carmax continued itdescent and even though the company'seat wall street earnings estimates in september, the sales came in weaker than expected for the second quarter in a row, average
declining 1.1%. the straw that broke the camel's back came a month ago when carmax reported its third straight top line miss along with a significant bottom-line miss, too. while used car pricing crept up a bit, that was good news, the total unit slowed dramatically, 3.2% versus 14% the year before. i was astonished. worst of all, carmax's same store sales declined by .8% and ever since the stock has been put through the meat grinder. how about autonation? this fall from grace happened much more recentnt. autonation performed to outperform the s&p 500 for the first 11 months of 2015. but the company issued its november new vehicle sales report which showed a 6% year over year decline in unit sales. that's hideous when you eonsider they posted a 14% increase the month before. then all hell broke loose two weeks ago when autonation's new vehicle sales report for december came out.
9% increase in the number of cars sold, t t real news here was that autonation was making less money per car. as management announced their fourth quarter results would show a $250 to $300 decline in gross profit per vehicle for new and used cars. that was a huge deal as it represents a 12% decline in gross profit from new car, 16% decline fromomsed cars. mike jackson said, and i'll quote here "the fourth quarter industry sales environment was more push versus pull." in layman's s rms he told us it got harder to sell new cars in the fourth quarter which is why the company slashed its prices. no wonder the stock plunged 10.5% that day and it slid anototr 10% in the two weeks since then. my point is not that you need to sell autonation to carmax, that's not what we're talking about because the stocks have been crushed to the point where they've become cheap. no, i'i'trying to show you the weakness these two auto retailers are seeing likely
auto sales market. we know from c cmax that the used car business is slowing pretty substantially and used car sales tend to be a good leading indicator for new car sales and the aggressiverice cutting that autonation needed to do in order to keep selling new cars in the fourth quarter suggests the united states is about to become a much more difficult market for the auto makers. if inventories pile up as the dealers find themselves in a more push than pull environment, companies like autonation will likely find themselves ordering few new vehicles from the manufacturers and at a certain point they'll likely use t lower retail selling prices as a reason to demand lower prices from the auto makeke themselves. here's the bottom line -- based on the weakness in autonation and carmax, it's hard not to conclude the auto business has peaked in the u.s. with every additional rate hike from the e fed,d,hings will get worse. no wonder the stocks of ford and general motors can't catch a break in this environment, even though i think the stock of gm is too cheap to sell and, in fact, you're getting an opportrtity to buy it and put it away because of that 5.2% dividend yield the company is
rest of the world gets better to compensate for the nation's slowdown here in the u.s. mike in california. mike? >> caller: hey, jim. blue marlin booyah from southern california, thanks to el nino and thank you for sharing all your knowledge. really appreciate it. >> thanks for saying that, man, tough week so we want to come to play on friday. what's going on? >> caller: thank you. jim, i'm in deep, down 45% on htz, do i hold until hertz equipment rental splits off or do i put on the life jacket and bail out? >> n n down here, no. i'm nonogoing to count on them selling the stock at 9. it's too low. and thank you for those kind comments, mike but at nine bucks i can't tell you to bail out. no way. let's go to stan in florida. stan? >> caller: hey, jim. this is stan. thank you for all your advice over the years, been following you for r ars. >> oh, thank you. >> caller: i'm also a mechanic, i do all the work myself and i
parts stores, autozone, advance auto and o'reilly. which do you think has the best? >> auto zone because they buy back the stock. build a buyer of autozone and i would by half then after that i would buy anothehehalf after they report because sometimes you get that little downturn before they can come in and start buying stocks, that's what you want to do. i like the stock of azo. all right, i hate to be a buzz kill on a dale like today, but i think it's fair to say to the auto business in the u.s. has peaked and it can get worse if the fed continues to raise rates. avon has been anything but beautiful lately. down 30% year to date. is the company in need of a drastic makeover or are the shares undervalued? i have the ceo. then from one coffee shop in 1971 to 22,000 locations around the globe, starbucks has become a cultural phenomenon. but is its global footprint rattling investors? i'm m gging deeper into thth
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challenges. your stock doesn't get to $2 a change if everything is a cakewalk and the company's sales decline by 22%. however, sheri mccoy is doing her best to turn things around. last month we learned a private equity firm is investing $435 million if the company for 16.6% stake and avon is selling more than 80% oits ailing north american division for $170 million which will allow the company to focus on its lucrative international business. plus, yesterday avon announced plans to cut $350 million in annual operating costs and used those savings to help grow the business. but is it enough. let's check in with sheri mccoy, the ceo of avon products to get a better sense of where her company is headed. ms. mccoy, welcome to "mad money." please have a seat. >> thank you. >> it's been a rough road but you were j & j and now you've been trying to turn it around. why should we go in at two bucks and change and buy the stock
transformation plan. we have cerberer partnership which allows to separate north america which has been a challenge that we've had and put the focus and funding that the business needs to support our representatives and turn it around. at the same time we have funding and resources and focus for the international business. and if you look at the underlying performance of the international business and constant dollar revenue, what you see is 3% growth in 2015. so our local markets, our top ten markets, we have terrific products and i think we have been beleaguered by some fx so we're continuing to manage that focusing on taking cost out and prices as we can do that. >> viewers -- some viewers know you have a big debt position. you owe a loloof money and you've been burning cash. will you be able to change? because a stock is at $2 because it's got credit issues. >> one of the things that we get with the cerberus relationship and partnership is they will
parent company. that allows us to reinvest and pay down debt. >> there arere couple things you're doing that i think are very exciting. you've changed the advertising. you're empowering people in a way that leadership hadn't done before but the countries you're doing it in, geez, a major spotlight on brazil and turkey and latin america. these are tough places to do business. in the short term t tre are some challenges. but if you look at the brazilian beauty market, women love beauty. i mean, everywhere in the world women love beauty and we're in it for the long term. we're growing our representative base. women are still coming in, they love the products, they want the earnings opportunity so if you look at the health of the brand, it's still very strong. is it easy to do business there? no. but at the end of f e day we believe this will turn around and in the long term the currencies will shift. >> brazil -- i follow the real a lot because i believe brazil is going to have political upheaval.
or the real gets weaker, won't that be a tough story for avon? >> women are still looking for jobs and money. >> that's a gogo point. >> so in some ways it's helpful. people need the opportunity to earn. >> >> the united states and north america, why were they so much tougher? >> i think one of the challenges we've had over the years in north america is we were slow to innovate meaning from a technology perspective. making it easier for people to do business. so we're investing in social media, new it systems. if you saw the investor day yesterday we talked about turkey, everything is b-to-b. >> and there's a tremendous deck. it's very big, don't be intimidated because the print is large. let's talk about you personally. you were the executive at j & j, top. and avon has been such a tough story, j and j, it's one of the
whole world. avon t tgh balance sheet. j and j consistent cash. here it's been stock going down, down, down. how do you everyday say this is going turn? >> i -- one of the things i love is the representative base. we have six million representatives -- >> six? >> six million. >> but there's big churn. >> there's big churn but what i showed yesterdayayas 60% of women are with us for more than 18 months so we have people that have built their whole livelihood on avon so i feel very resesnsible for that and d the same time responsible to shareholders. and i believe in the model. i believe in the products and i believe in the opportunity and so that gives me the energy each and everyday to make sure i'm doing the e ght things. >> speaking of right things, avon 39, you should talk about it. this is something that's really important. >> avon 39 is our breast cancer walk in the u.s. and we are in 54ountries with the avon breast cancer initiative. we over the past several years
billion dollars and it was money raised by representatives. they go out, s sl products and a portion of what they get they reinvest and get their friends to invest. but it was a cause that was started by representatives. the other cause is domestic violence. how do we make s se that we get this community of women globally to invest and support these causes? >> last question, there's another company, herbalife, it's been targeted. people say tough things about it. why does this model work? >> because people want -- they want to be entreprenenrs. they want financial independence. they want to do what they want to do and build their own business. that's an opportunity whether it's avon or herbalife, they have the opportunity. >> excellent. you know what? it's a tough one but you're a straight shooter. sheri. $2 stock, 0lease go through thish deck. it will explain a lot about
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> it's time for the lightning round! are you ready? time for the lightning round. harry in illinois. harry? >> caller: hi, cramer, thank you very much for taking my call. >> of course. >> callele my question is about a stococ dk corporation -- >> no, if we're going to be in that area go with nordic america. paul in texas, paul? >> caller: booyah, jim. >ooyah! >> caller: i want to know if it's a buy now before it reports
group. >> why don't we buy epr get extra dividend. you get that same kind of thing. robert in wisconsin. robert? >> caller: hi, jim. jim, my question is whatat the deal with cisco? >> you know, look, i think the ceo is doing a good job, he'll score prices but the problem is that i think the yield is good and the stock is rock bottom. nancy in california. nancy. >> caller: hi, there. >> yo. >> caller: i bought regenron. >> and you're going to keep it! it's bankable. the stock is down but it's a wild card market for biotech. domini in new york. dominick? >> caller: yes, jim. booyah. >> booyah. >> caller: altria -- >> that yield is safe at 4%, 3. 8%. i don't like to recommend tobaccccstocks but i think i is good for the long term but i'm
barbara in california, barbara. >> caller: hi there, jim. i purchased 3d systems in -- >> no, come on! sell. joe in california. joe? joe? joe, joe? >> caller: i'm in in on der. >> if we're going to do it, we'll go with ventas. pretty simple. let's go to new jersey. >> caller: thank you for taking my call. radiant health. buy, sell, or hold. >> this is speculalave stock but it's trading in like $20 increments today. that's the conclusion of the lightning round!
look at this, this coat -- this is what they can do. this coat is 69 bucks. i've peered into the brain of this market and it says sell stocks. this thing is hot! why don't you stick with cramer? what do you do when you buy starbucks? do you use your phone? >> i go to the truck outside. >> i go to starbucks on n ys so i feel like i can throw them business and sometimes i go to mahsood. those are the days you don't want to know me. you don't wasn't to touch my engine. i've got too much torque. a lot of torque those days. >> you d d >> when the economy is good, people drink. when it's bad, people drink. except for when they're on this stupid cleanse. >> greetings from the quinoa cleanse capital of the world.
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an astounding 9% same store sales growth in the u.s., 8% globally, 4% global traffic, stunning performance of consumer packaged goods. most important, starbucks gave you 15% earnings per share growth with none of that hand-wringing and whining about a strong dollar and uncertain global economic environment. the guidance was spopoon. the sum total of numbers splendid versus any other retailer i follow. yet shareholders last night and early this morning dumped the stock furiously because of two unexpected negatives, softer sales from europe after the paris tragedy and a slowdown in chinese growth from the 6% rate analysts were looking to 5%. is that one percentage point from 6 to 5 miss from their own expectations, not the company's, caused a wholesale rethink of starbucks's chinese efforts given the recent weakness in the overall china economy. when i interviewed howard schultz, the chairman and ceo of starbucks this morning, i tried to put the negatives in context
of them. i thought he answered the queries in a way that exposed today's selloff as an opportunity. starbucks traffic has bounced back since the european tragedy, but we didn't see the comeback in the quarter they. howard is taking a long view of china. noting the consumer is being empowered and company sales are strong as it continues to open more than one store a day in what will be the company's largest market. just watch this clip. >> the future of starbucks coffee company in china and globally has never been stronger. the brand never been more relevant and this is a long-term story that probably if you look at our peer group not only was in the restaurant and retail sector but any bricks and more retailer around the world. o's putting up 4% global traffic, 8% globally, 9% in the
it's unheard of. >> beyond that, schultz said the company never gave guidance in china in the first place and anyone who believes their business in china isn't on fire is dead wrong. that's where the disconnecec lies. it seems like every year analysts doubt the strength of this company. i can recall a period when critics told them that the u.s. was saturated with too many ststes but anyone who thought that has to have his head examined. especially when i can't find another retailer doing more than half of what starbucks delivered in the u.s. we have too few starbucks stores, clearly, and if anything the technology howard has introduced allowed the company to handle more of the traffic than anyone thought possible. second, i can remember when stuck's european numbers softened with the financial crisis a few years ago. howard came on squawk on the street and told us european weakness would be a blip and the company would come back and that's what happened. it was a sensational buying opportunity. then when we got a bead on the slowdown story, schultz told you
would be fine in china. few belilied and the stock fell from 40s to the 30s over a few weeks time. looking back, it was another terrific buying opportunity. finally two years ago the price of coffee spiked to more than two bucks. everyone seemed to fret ththjava increase would hurt the bottom line. schultz told you it was a minor cost and starbucks was well hedged. didn't matter, in incompetent thing yoyoknow, coffee prices got pummelled and you never saw a hiccup in the company's earnings. guess what? buying opportunity. schultz developed new consumers products, expanded with consistency y ound the globe and employ add fly wheel like methodology where the company's strength worldwide fed on itself and accelerated when so many believed it would stall out. it's true thth the stock rallied 40% last year which left starbucks ripe for profit taking in the wake of this quarter support so stocks initial
it has to be put into context. it's time to start trust howard schultes. you know what? maybe it's simply a gift that keeps giving. a one time bargain every year where you can buy the stock of starbucks more cheaply than you deserve. ststk with cramer. degree gave women a motion-activated wristband to understand how much they move,... and created degree with motionsense. the world's first antiperspirant activated by movement, it has unique microcapsules that break with friction to release bursts of freshness all day. keeping you fresher th every move. motionsense. protection to keep you moving. degree. it won't let you down. i take pictures of sunrises, but with my back pain i couldn't sleep and get up in time. then i found aleve pm. aleve pm is the only one to combine a safe sleep aid plus
all right, two up days are very good but the one thing that did happen is we're losing the oversold condition that i think triggered this whole move both in oil and stocks. as they go higher, sellers will appear. i think we'll tell the tale on wednesday when the fed speaks and i don't want you to be greedy. sell a little ahead of that meeting. there's always a bull market somewhere, i promise to find it just for you on "mad money." i'm jim cramer.