tv Quadriga - The International Talk Show LINKTV January 24, 2016 2:30pm-3:01pm PST
control of the situation. merkel:?chancellor does she have an alternative plan? coming to you from berlin. rodriguez -- quadriga. >> hello and a warm welcome. angela merkel is saying, we can do it. is she bluffing? we want to talk about this with guests who have been following the refugee crisis. it is a pleasure to welcome judy dempsey. she said for the first time, merkel. has a plan. a problemm is, it is without support. alan posener is with us once again. he is an anglo german author and
commentator. never had arkel plan to written up for the euro crisis or the refugees. and finally, glad to see erik kirschbaum. and isorking for reuters a correspondent for the los angeles times in berlin. he says, usually angela merkel has things figured out. this time, she does not have an end in mind. two out of three say the chancellor has no plan. neither a plan a nor a plan b. but she repeats, like a mantra, the need for quicker processing of asylum applications and cooperation. both within europe and between the european union and turkey. those sounds like elements of a plan. >> there are things you have to
do. people need to get the applications done quickly. if they refuse, they need to be sent back quickly. you are going to send 400,000 back, how are you going to do it? the coalition, nor within europe, nobody is going to throw her a lifeline. no one is taking refugees, no other european country, in numbers that are going to help her. before turkey does more, it is going to be a long time. plan, let europe helped me, that plan has availed already. i think she knows that. host: we are going to come back to some of those obstacles. erik kirschbaum, if we look at statements, ins
her new year address. i have to say she is sounding more resolute than at any time in her term in office. up borderputting fences, trying to stop refugees at the border, is not a workable alternative. erik: she's got the future of the european union in mind. that is a big problem. people who want her to introduce cap's do not seem to have a plan. they do put the controls back up, it will set the eu back. n troubl gotten becauseverybodthought the wier, refues wouldo down in numbe. theyre stilloming in by 30 a da they will have ather one million at this ra. that is why there is l this essure o merl. she hoping for aew more months otime. ople in her party are not
happy. she is differently in trouble. host: speaking to members of the she saidsister party, she is looking to the future. trying to buy a bit more time. counting on consultations this week with turkey, between turkey and the eu. and a meeting of eu leaders. is there any reason to expect that meeting to produce more cooperation than we have seen in the past months? judy: no. and there is not hope the president of turkey is going to cooperate. he has been stung by the islamic state and the recent suicide attacks in turkey. he is going to be loath to keep the refugees there. secondly, how many summits have the eu had over the refugees? as if they did not see this
problem happening or three years ago. there is a plan b on the table. essentially, core countries who will keep the borders open. cooperate, the borders will be closed. merkel is not going to be handed any kind of support. she is in a difficult situation. you to elaborate on that plan b and a moment. first, let's take a look at some of the numerous eu summits and the resolutions they have issued which have not been followed up upon. turkey.le, the eu has promised turkey 3 billion euros. but italy is reported to be blocking the deal. as a result, turkey is stalling
on its end of the agreement. >> a small part of the mediterranean sea is governed and not by the rule of law but people smugglers. >> example, hot spots. greece was supposed to have set up five refugee reception centers known as hotspots. so far, there is only one. italy said, they would organize six cinders but so far there are only two. wristers -- redistribution. be,000 refugees are set to moved from greece and italy. the eu says only a few hundred have been relocated. why has european solidarity failed to function? are some states trying to punish germany? host: the hungary premier referred to the crisis as quote germany's problem.
what if anything could change that matter, view of the matter? what could compel european member states to make a good on what they have result to do? alan: basically, nothing. i can't even begin to say how horrible that statement is. it was merkel who helped him out of a crisis. thousands of refugees in the budapest station. she said, come to germany. she helped him out of a tight spot. he is unthankful and ungrateful. reasons for that than hungary. when did we help the greeks in the crisis? europeanthat eastern states, they are angry at us because we have incorporating with russia. everyone has a grudge against germany. most of them for good reason. going to help
germany, it is not going to happen. did make it worse by making it look like the gates are open to germany. that added to the number of people going and rushing here. judy: i think merkel's miscalculation is twofold. believe welcoming the refugees, opening the borders, would trigger a pan eu response and it did not. she thought if i did, other countries will follow. it did not for complicated reasons. host: you could imagine at the some carrotsing, or at least sticks might be laid on the table. could you say another word about that and whether that will change t calculu judy: there are two elements. relieve the pressure on
greece. e more, try to relocate them to the more prosperous northern countries. sweden, but they are closing their doors. hat they disgraceful w are doing. the other is, and you have to watch this, how the finance ministry will see the future of europe. the one passionate european left governments is the finance minister. he knows if the open border system collapses, that is the end of the euro. economies will get weaker. will she wante -- to cooperate with the refugees, those who do not will like to settle east europeans. it is highly provocative.
oft: there has been talk possibly saying to those countries that do not want to cooperate, eastern european countries, perhaps even southern countries, you did not have to take refugees and give them asylum but you have to pay. maybe pay a lot. the that change people's haiti are? -- behavior? erik: it could but you have to get people to agree. they see merkel is losing support. she has been popular for 10 years and support is crumbling. they see the debate. losing hererkel is position. why should they help her out now? post: the austrian leadership said we want to limit the number of refugees our country will take in. in fairness to austria, they are of 1.5% ofut a limit
their population. that is not a small number. let's look at other countries in the world, the u.s., the u.k., they have not taken anything like that. the austrian leaders also said, it is a wake-up call to the rest of europe. will that be heard? idea, butke judy's that is not going to happen. if austria closes its bor that relieves germany. they have closed our border for us. macedonia closed their border to greece. so people are not coming from greece and serbia. that is plan b by default. everyone closes borders except germany. mrs. merkel can pretend she has not closed the borders but she has basically. judy: if the wake-up call is out
there, it is ending the war in syria and iraq. it is not here in germany, sweden and austria. it is out there. diplomacy. the power to stop it. europe tends to move slowly. the willask only if for his at the door. let's see the door in the form of refugees freezing in tent cities in the balkans. 's righty the chancellor and that leads to movement within europe. a need for more time. how much time does she have when we look at the internal political situation in germany? erik: i don't pick she has a lot of time left. been banging the drum. more and more people are fed up with the situation, especially
after the events in cologne on new year's eve. 800 people drown off the coast. the eu, said this is horrible and then went back to business as usual. thousands of't see people freezing to death in greece. i can imagine it will be a short reaction and go on to the next problem. i don't think merkel has a lot of time. i think the next few weeks will be decisive in terms of how long she will be chancellor. we were talking about how she will be around forever read she might not make it to the end of the year. host: our title refers to german angst which might come as a to viewers who remember the amazing pictures of warm welcomes last summer. the mood has shifted. let's take a look. >> september, 2015. germany welcomes refugees with open arms.
later, following sexual assault in cologne, the mood has changed. betweene past, we saw 150-200 pepr spraysold over a year. practically every day, we sell 100. >> in several cities, people defensened civilian groups. refugees have become suspect. male asylum seekers were banned from a public pool after several women said they had been harassed. ehave, tyy do not are t. period. >> local officials called off carnival parade, citing fears of cologne style attacks. areahe mayor in the bay sent a busload of migrants to berlin because he is upset about policies about refugees. is germany on the verge of a
nervous breakdown? host: alan posener, what accounts for the shift in mood? we have agreed just examples there. gious examples there but that is antidotal. alan: new year's even cologne, that was a tipping point. not only 1000 women, in cologne but other cities, were sexually harassed, molested. in one or two cases, raped by people they say of north african, arab dissent. the facts are still murky. an underlying angst that has been there for years, about test roster and --
testosterne-fuuled men. people who are liberal find caught between two fires. you don't want to be anti-immigrant but you don't want to defend attacks against women. host: claim show every second an has encountered sexual harassment. it is a fact of life in all cultures. the issue has become more exaggerated and complicated. women want to be comfortable wearing shorts or skirts in the summer. there will be different pressures on them. i worry about this. one other thing, you mentioned, did cologne change anything?
i think there is a parallel connection. movements, they are asking, when is this going to end? some guidance. cannot giveerkel them that. host: the president of germany poke inn. posts -- s davos. he said, we need to get the number of refugees down because otherwise we have a problem with the public willingness and ability to observe refugees. is that correct? does that mean the public is at its limit? erik: is getting close to the limit to read where exactly it is, i do not know. cologne did change the mood. he is freer to express the view of the public.
he realizes they need to come up with a plan. are the people a sense we in control of the situation. germans love being in control. situationthat there is being overrun, it is difficult for germans to digest. in cologne, it is unusual to see .omen walking alone you don't see that in a lot of cities in america but germany has a liberal civilized society where everything is so free. had a policing problem, too few officers. they underestimated what would be going on on new year's eve. they are talking about it. they replaced the police chief and our hiring new officers. we are seeing one of the most intense and i must say constructive debates on integration i have heard in my many years. are we really so sure they are
not capable of getting this under control? underthey can get it control but germans swing in different directions. cologne, as you mentioned, is the tipping point. the tale of two train stations. the munich station in september and cologne later. they need a third train station to come up with a middle ground. about the political leaders? we are seeing the pressure within the chancellor's office. what about her junior partner? how much support are they willing to give her? politically, they have left already. they are demanding a limit to refugees. csu, they are already. they are not going to do away with her for one simple reason.
no one wants to take the rap. they want her to take the flak and soul the difficulties. you don't want to be chancellor of germany at this moment, none of us would like it. host: back to the title of our program. german anxiety, plan b. she is planning on getting the numbers down, some form of european cooperation. let's say that does not happen. what might another plan b look like? the austrians are calling a decision a plan b. with that be an alternative? judy: no. the alternative is syria. orders will not solve the problem. solving the problem is getting the iranians and saudis and neighbors in the region and ending this bloody war in syria. host: something that will take a considerable amount of time. you told us she does not have a
lot of time. the austrians saying, we are only going to let refugees in at one crossing point. everywhere else, we are going to shut it down. is that the beginning of the end ofree movent? ishat plan? erik: it could be. it could also be a way to pressure the eu. the economic growth will shrivel away. pivotal are the march elections in the free german states. if the candidates get routed, the pressure on merkel could be so enormous that something could break in mid-march. host: who has a plan b? you told us the chancellor does not. does one of the other parties? do you see something that is workable? alan: the chancellor has always said, we are driving like in a fog.
she has been lucky now that the austrians have shut the border. i agree totally with judy. we are not going to solve anything until we fix syria. we will gain some time by closing the borders. merkel is still there. now we need the political well. the terrible tragedy has been the american election year. that is a tragedy. judy: the double tragedy is america is not taking in refugees to lift the pressure off germany. host: solving the syrian war, that is a plan a. they are working on it. the german foreign minister as well very much involved. what kind of prospects to you give the current talks? do you see another round in february? judy: in is a k player this.
saudi arabia has its own economic problems now. it is up to its neck in yemen. there must be a meeting of minds among the region that this war has to end. we don't have time. do they really want a weekend to germany and to see the end of chancellor merkel? told us you think she does not have a lot of time. if there was progress evident on syria, do you think that would buy the chancellor more support? as you said, her poll numbers were skyhigh a few months ago. peace ince or nearing syria could change the calculus but it does not look like it is on the internet horizon.
people in germany are impatient. host: much hinges on whether the numbers come down, alan posener. the government spokesperson said they are falling. is that because of winter weather or are germany's attempts to get the registration process and identifying those without asylum beginning to work? alan: get his accommodation of all sorts of things. we are deporting twice as many as we were a year ago. there is the weather, the borders.f the bulgaria has closed its border to greece. macedonia. the numbers are coming down. to lose don't want sight of the human suffering and the humanitarian tragedy that has been set the majority of these refugees. host: thank you very much. thanks for being with us. and thank you for tuning in.
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