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tv   Quadriga - The International Talk Show  LINKTV  February 6, 2016 2:00pm-2:31pm PST

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>> this week on quadriga, the trump factor. how dangerous is populism? the results from the iowa caucus are in. in unexpected triumph for ted cruz. a narrow victory for hillary clinton. andlist bernie sanders
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donald trump are still in the race. why has the u.s. moved away from the middle ground? is there a link between populism's in the united states and europe? here host, melinda crane. >> welcome. is the trump factor still in play and where is it taking the u.s. political system? we have three guests following the events. ulrike herrmann is the business .ditor for the german daily she says of trump or to become the nominee, that would be the best thing that could happen to the democrats. alan posener is anuthor an commtator fo theerlin dail he ss thankto the t-party system, popults neveret into the whe house. and erik kirschbaum has worked for reuters and is currently a
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correspondent for the los angeles times. he says it is alarming trend do soringe candidates well but it is still early days. do we still need to worry about the trump factor? dozen iowa signal the beginning of the end? but this is such a crazy election that it is tough to make elections -- predictions. he is popular with people who do not vote. there is a big block of voters who do not usually vote. there could be a lot of disappointing results. they have nothing to lose. it is entertainment. it keeps the networks happy. he will probably be around for a while. warchest asgreat well that doesn't rely on donors. say trumprmann you
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will have no chance in the general election but many commentators predicted his demise months ago. >> every prediction can be wrong. trump is really very, very extreme. you cannot be more extreme than an purity if he should be the nominee, every voter in america who is in the middle or is an hispanic, or women, or would vote for hillary clinton. those people have the majority. those who support trump and his views -- the republicans will lose if they nominated trump. that is what the establishment knows. alarmedwhy they are so about his success because it is
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obvious he would ruin the party. >> what about ted cruz and marco rubio? they may not be quite as extreme as donald trump but they have adopted his anti-immigrant bashing message. are they any less populist? >> they are not really anti-immigrant -- both are sons of cuban immigrants. to --ay say that you have immigration cannot happen indefinitely. there is a difference between ted cruz who is an evangelical and marco rubio who has adopted some of the tactics but at the moment he becomes the party's nominee in has to win over people who are in the middle. he will track to the center like
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every candidate does. >> are you so sure about that given the role of right-wing media and the political landscape? they will hold until accountability if he walked back. that he wasenied ever willing to go for in immigration deal that would allow illegal immigrants in the u.s. citizenship. he is now denying positions he used to espouse. >> this happened to mitt romney last time. state ofn home massachusetts, he implemented health care reform which was almost identical to obamacare and opposed it. that did not help him with election. things, in spite of right-wing media ranting, the electorate wants to see someone who can attract the center. the center zone will excuse the
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fact that in the primary, rubio has made some extreme right-wing statements. >> lied to you think they will excuse that? they did not four years ago. the democrats are loving this, they love watching the republicans destroyed themselves. >> speaking of democrats, what do you see, how do you see bernie sanders? he is certainly on the rather extreme wing of his party. one year ago, nobody thought he had a chance. iowa is an unusual state. voters.got more she is the real winner but the media is downplaying that because it didn't meet expectations. bernie sanders is popular with college students and
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left-wingers. he will do well in new hampshire. he will not win the nomination or do well in the south. like trump, he has in new york accent. america hasn't voted for anybody with a new york accent in a long time. i don't think they have a chance. >> what is your take on bernie sanders, ulrike herrmann? europeans, everything sounds very normal. if you say you shouldn't pay for universities here, a german would agree because we don't. if you said you have to have a social security, germans would agree because our system is the same. for us, what he is offering is just normal life.
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for americans, it is very unusual what he proposes. there is no chance of him winning the majority because it would be against the tradition of the country. >> when he talks about breaking up the banks, that is pretty much in the direction of populism. >> definitely. we have this phenomenon of electing or trying to elect leaders on the left who are grumpy. think of jeremy corbyn in great britain. think of bernie sanders. the day of post-jfk democratic policy. it is really people wishing they we were back in the 1970's. mr. sanders is just as backward looking as mr. trump, who wants america to be reagan's america. back to the banks,
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splitting them up was the suggestion of the commission that the eu commission had on regulating european banks. it is not something completely outlandish, it is something very real. the banks are very strong. it is nothing you cannot discuss. let's take another look at alan posener's contention that american populism is fun. let's remind ourselves how much fun donald trump's messages. >> donald trump speeches are often over-the-top. he rails against the political elite or mexican immigrants. >> they are bringing drugsthey are bringing crime, they are rapists. >> he tries to polarize voters. >> the hatred. the hatred.
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and what it is his establishment because i am not taking anybody's money. they don't control me. i doing what is right for you. >> he seems to believe that voters will get him -- let him get away with just about anything. middleuld stand in the of fifth avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn't lose any voters, ok? >> how long will the bandwagon continue? if i listenchbaum to that it is a lot less about fun than fear. who is he appealing to? >> he appeals to the undereducated people who have lost, people on the fringes, rednecks, he really appeals to that element of white america that feels like they are not represented. he has really struck a chord with them. .hese people don't usually vote he might do well in opinion polls that whether that translates into votes remains to
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be seen. it could happen right on the line. >> would you say sanders is targeting a similar group? >> no. he is targeting better educated americans. middle-class.hite people like students who have loan debt and no chance of the upperjob, echelons of middle-class society who have not seen an improvement and is more angry at this. it is two different facets of middle-class america which don't seem to have profited from the economic surge during the obama years. >> so it is about inequality? >> america is extremely unequal.
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wages have not risen for normal growth for the last 40 years went the top fringes of society. vote for trumpen and the younger white men vote for sanders. it is the same sentiment. >> in other words, you might say bernie sanders is channeling occupy wall street and donald trump is channeling the tea party. >> donald trump is not the tea party. >> erik kirschbaum what role did the media play in all of this? they have been having a field day. are they also actually driving populism forward? .> in a way they do they put a spotlight on these people. sanders could not be where he is without the media coverage.
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that is one of the bigger stories of the past year that he could come so far against such a big organization that hillary clinton has the media do play a role in the whole iowa coverage he wonder why clinton one? why is she being treated like a loser? for some timer now the political science community has been documenting the rise of polarization in the united states, producing a blockade in government in the course of the obama presidency. most of his initiatives were passed with few republican votes. is that itself now feeding the kind of mistrust and government? >> definitely. it is a structural problem. 80%-90% of congressional seats the two seats for
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parties. the only contest is between the democratic nominees themselves in the primaries and there, the person who is more radical tens to win among the faithful. this is what happens. if you had a redrawing of congressional districts which meant that these people had come up against other parties, they would automatically tone down their rhetoric in that we do america well. that is what is to happen. >> that is the gerrymandering phenomenon. what about the money phenomenon? ulrike herrmann? think the money is an extreme problem, especially with wall street. who paid literally billions of dollars for the election campaigns. that is why they had such a strong lobby in congress.
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many tea party republicans who want seats to not have enough money. rebellingy of voters against the power of the elite, against the lobbyists to give a for the candidates who do not have much money but who are radical. if you do not have much money, you must be radical to have media coverage that you cannot pay for. the money does not go to the tea party representatives but the money feeds on the anger, which feeds radicals. >> you consider polarization is now coming home to roost whin e party. we areeeing a dive arising within two political parties. what is that about? >> you cannot miss the polarization, it has been getting worse all the time. one would hope they would start
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working together again but after the last elections it just seemed to get worse, especially on the conservative party. a lot of people they are close to inputting. they cannot get their act together. i am not sure the democrats are that fractured as the republicans. to thinkcary thing what could happen to the republican party if they cannot we their act together and are seeing this primary election, republicans are just totally fighting, totally squabbling. four years ago, it looks like the tea party. that looks at a picnic compared to this time. i cannot imagine democrats will show clips of republicans bashing each other -- just shooting themselves in the foot. >> did you not think that a candidate like ted cruz or marco rubio could reunite the republican party in the general election? >> ted cruz is too far on the
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right. he will really galvanized the democratic voters in a lot of republicans will probably vote for the democrats. most presidential elections have been one in the middle. obama became a centrist president. so was bill clinton before that. ted cruz as president is hard to imagine. if jeb bush gets his act together -- one year ago, everybody thought he would be the candidate. .e has the money he can turn it around, he could be a candidate that republicans could rally around. they just seem to be fallen apart. >> i would like to come back to this issue of the fear and mistrust and its impact on the political system in general. erik kirschbaum was saying that the republican party is in dire straits, mentioning the
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possibility of implosion. do you think that there is a serious threat to the system as a whole? >> no. the threat is there to america inause america seems to be decline. --ple who have job security there is the question of the rise of china, then they give to impose any order in the middle east. it seems to be too many americans that this is not the country they bought into. it reminds me of the time after jimmy carter when his presidency said we have a malaise in the country and he talked about decline. then came ronald reagan who sent, i am going to make america great again, a phrase that donald trump has borrowed. that is what america wants to see. question, can american
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doing? i think the kampeter they have immense resources. you need a leader who accentuates the positives. that was not obama. find the leader who can tap into this need and you have a great president. leaders,ng of interestingly enough, the yearning for a strong leader together with anti-immigrant sentiment is one factor that seems to unite both the european and american populace. >> hungarian prime minister viktor orban space at against migrants. he has put up fences to keep him out and he is convinced there is a link between immigration and terrorism. in germany, and leader of the anti-immigrant party recently said the police should be able to use firearms against illegal migrants. the interior ministry says that will never happen. therance, the leader of
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national front party has called the eu and in potent empire. she wants friends to stop using the euro currency. european populists have one thing in common with trump, they admire vladimir putin. russia aomised to make player on the world stage once again. in europe, populist candidates are becoming increasingly popular. and with that happen in the united states? are we seeingmann a similar phenomenon on both sides of the atlantic in the rise of extremist sentiment in anti-immigrant bashing that we saw and perhaps also in the yearning for someone who can take the strong and? >> i think there are things that are similar. then this idea that you have to have a strong leader, this idea
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that the media are always just telling lies. respondingically that people might lose out. even in germany, it is losers who vote for the populists. sometimes, they are quite well-off. there are similarities. >> how much does it have to do with the sense in the united and europe that somehow our economic system is on the wane and for instance china on the rise? >> that is not the point. i do n agree with alan pener that the u.s. under obama has become weak or been unsuccessful. jobs were many new created, that is not the problem. these jobs are not well paid.
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what you need is to have higher taxes for the rich but that is not possible because you have republicans in congress who would never agree. it is more about social inequality, it is not about growth. people just do not profit. >> l me ask l of youo come back to our tit and we asked, how dangerous is populism? what do you think, erik kirschbaum? to what degree is this a true threat to the kind of democracy that we take for granted? >> i think it is part of the political spectrum and i think the more it is talked about, the more you see what kind of the -- kind of people are on the fringes. the election right now is just the primary season here that is when these things cap talked about. they will be a
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middle-of-the-road candidate for both parties. he suggests that the threat is not great in the u.s.. unlike in america, populism is already in power here. they could be in power in france before long. these populists can implement their policies and a are tearing here of the park, they are tearing the fabric of europe apart and that is why it is dangerous and they are destroying democracy and so not point a-- finger -- europe needs to examine his own position on populism. these people aren't -- they are destroying europe and the are destroying democracy. >> if i remember the 1990's, we had a discussion in germany about the rise of the republicans that was also quite extreme in germany. it vanished. inwe can have populists power in hungary, poland, and
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the afp is much cleverer than republicans everywhere. it is a different situation. >> ulrike herrmann? dangerous.e, it is i do not agree that there is no danger of populism in the united states. the probable outcome will be that you have a democratic president, hillary clinton, but that she will not be able to do anything because she will have a congress working because all of the trumps of the country, the tea party, all those idiots will be having the majority in anyress and will prevent sensible action being taken. >> i disagree. obama wasn't able to do that, obama wasn't able to get deals
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done with the opposition republicans but no clinton did. he had a successful presidency. >> the republicans were different. as extreme, but he got a lot of things done. in the request and will be more successful than obama in working with a congress controlled by republicans. >> thank you all of you for being with us today and thanks to all of you out there for tuning in. see you soon and please follow hashtag and check we our campaign hashtag, are traveling around the country asking americans what america they want. check us out. #whatamerica.
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michelle: hello, and welcome to "focus on europe," with some of the best stories from across the continent. i'm michelle henery. thanks for joining us. on today's show -- hospanh lifeguards are rescuing refugees in greece. belgium's struggle for power -- nuclear power. and, women's soccer clubs in italy score against the mafia. despite freezing temperatures and dangerous conditions, refugees continue to arrive in europe in the thousands.

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