tv Quadriga - The International Talk Show LINKTV August 26, 2018 10:00pm-10:31pm PDT
a lot of very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming to you from the house of berlin and the focus this week is on turkey's. financial crisis that many observers feel could spiral out of control. the turkish lira has lost close 240% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year. contagion is now the watch word the fear is that the turmoil in turkey could impact other economies. but to president recep type and one has in recent years put turkey on the road to autocracy. and he's launched repeated vitriolic verbabal attackckn ththe emu and on the germane
saw question. this week your own country get this crisis in turkey showed europe propped up. and to discuss that question i'm joined here in the studio by three astute observers and analysts beginning with. allen pose no author and commentator for the berlin newspaper defense. who says europe must help to keep the end people remain europe's bridge to the muslim world? also with us is christopher marshall chief diplomatic correspondent for another berlin daily. the target should be go christophe believes that everyone is a misguided watercraft chillin they respond to pressure. and not to support. and a warm welcome to to set a set of ahead of foreign use a touch of us politics department. zadok use that europe must strive for a stable turkey but not. at any cost. thank you all for being here let's begin with the data of course and i invite you to map out for us. just how great the current
crisis into a case. well of course the government is still trying to downplay it arm is trying to say yes we will survive this some are due on is keen on trying to convince the public of this way. however the citizens are already feeling the pain very very intensely right now is the the sacrifice -- days in turkey it's a very very important religious -- event and this year it's to buy to buy an animal to sacrifice and to give to to the poor basically. is ten times much more higher than it was a year ago -- on a daily basis when you go to the market you no longer can afford the things that you were able to before so people are really feeling this pain. also -- small businesses -- there and dollars and they're trying to not to reflect this situation to the to the consumers so they're also stuck in between either they're going to raise the prices. and lose customers or they're going to suffer and
they're trying to find a balance so it's really -- it's not good actually right now what's happening and all people being affected equally are of a specific groups took society who are being harder hit than of the group's off course the the the poorest of the society is being hit a lot but of course the investors as wel. on because they have all these deaths in us dollars and euros so they're also being extremely this crisis. christopher marcello we we heard about how great how serious the crisis is it appears that it's going to get worse before it gets better. to what extent is it can control this belated president at one store. to a very high degree of the financial situation is caused by his wrong economic policies and of policies when it comes to the to the to the rates for for landin. and so i think this is a situation where europe and the united states a good looking at the moment about europe. can influence his course of
action offering support but not at any cost under a very firm conditions and that is. we need an economic aid program run by the international monetary fund. we need to adelanto stop his blackmailing of partners whichh she did o over recent yes just putting german or american citizens s into jal and only offerining trees under certain conditions that is blackmailing us and nato partner. and he's also very unreliable. germany had to build a central in in truckee. towards the tool. to help turkey to be in a safe situation with the war next door in syria and out of one even didn't admits a german parliamentarians to visit german soldiers and so we had to change that and pull our troops out so. there's a lot of things where everyone is unreliable and now he needs our help and that is the moment where we should have very firm conditions under which we will.
give them financial aid. i don't a president that one is to blame. definitely i mean -- he he started out as an economic reform -- important point yet and and and the west. the europe a welcome that and the idea was the turkey within a mile of brand of islamism could go beyond. mls nationalism and dark at kurds and turks and other minorities could find common ground in in being. turkish and islamic and and at the same time having his economic [inaudible] reform but for whatever reason he abandoned that calls. he he he has a band in the course of reconciliation of the kurds he's also a band that economic reform in favor of easy money looks good committee huge presidential palace. in a simple can build a bridge across the bus was full of finance with easy money most of it going to firms which in our in his orbit on the orbit of his
family. and that has ruined ruined the economy the problem is do the tugs realize that it's his fault or is he succeeding. in in in in peddling the the the the notion that it's after the fourth of the especially the americans with the sanctions on the west and so on who are. anti turkish and so on so that. well as allan is just mention president had one has accused the united states of launching what he has called an attempted economic coup against turke. let's get a feel for what the president himself and some of his turkish compatriots have been sake. it will lose their reading so there is no difference between the attacks on our economy and the attacks on our religion and our nation. the goal is the same. and that is to bring turkey and its people to their knees. and hold them hostage. is that all about. yepsen missing the americans impose their sanctions we have president everyone will
find back we're not finished yet. i had a few dollars and i went right out and exchange them. also. get out of the older segment coming up if we stick together the us sanctions won't have any effect on us. must maybe this will bring us closer together. go up there did this new album. this affects all of us. everything's more expensive prices have doubled. what will happen next? it's bad enough for us older folks. what about the young people and their future? citizens are you was smiling as we listen to that report. yes because you can see that the people on the street are also divided like the country. you can see certain people are convinced that. you know if art as long as they are doing is they're everything will be good. and that has a lot to do with thihis power in the me.
allowing his words to be the only word out there. and the other people who have not voted for him basically know what's really happening. and so that the society the public is also very much divided unfortunately there are still people who believe in these. empty words and is also what i thought i did empty would you say the suddenly drastic which actually wrote them down again what he said at the beginning of that report the goal is to bring turkey in its people to their knee. and to hold them hostage to see addressing with that kind of seemingly paranoid language well he's always trying to denies the west he's always trying to find you enemies to to make people believe that turkey is on its own and it can only survive on its own. and everybody else out there is bad we've experienced this with his his language towards germany with experiences with his communication with the us and what other countries as well in holland. so this is his way of tryin. to show this like us versus them. kind of language alone you
were nodding. yeah yeah i agree and this is the this is the problem it's it's obvious that the american sanctions don't help is given my handle. to shove the blame off to a united states president to is not respected anywhere in the world and you know -- and and where is in fact the us sanctions have only very little bit to do with the whole question which is homegrown -- the the present crisis armed and the it's precisely because of this narrative we were on our own that the in that europe especiaially. should. love dangled presence in front of him and say look we're willing to help you out of this crisis if you do the economic. right thing. arm bit because at and another thing we ought to d. or indulge amanda dodging bullets definitely needs to get his turkish tv program up and running and to really create an alternative source of information -- in in in turkey the way they
and another day did during the cold war towards the east this is so important undetected nor tentative narrative of what actually people. in the west feel about turkey while we are. offering this economic help which we showed -- waiting for the government to do this and we should always know that is not happening. it's all happening i think it should happen. turkey's government violates human rights turkey has arrested german citizens turkey. has scorched earth as we heard. has. prevented german parliamentarians from visiting troops in the field serving for nato in turkey and you'll saying there should be a softly softly approach and also for the sanctions on took as i understand it -- yes i am firstly the softly softly approach. seems to work princes with my colleague dennis you showed was imprisoned on trumped up charges -- no pun intended --
accused of spying simply for doing his job when there are hundreds of others did in prison who don't have a german passport possible is that is did. and and and you know i mean it's it's it's it's it's horrible but i still think. arm that -- we have to somehow at the same time is helping them economic helping turkey economically which important country mustn't break down. and is another reason for this and when a country goes into economic downturns by like in venezuela revolution doesn't happen. that's when people are so busy scrambling for about politics and changing regime it's when. people of more or less okay. that they think about politics and and and and so you we we have no vested interest in seeing talking going down the sink christopher marshall about i would draw the ark not soft soft now is the time for pressure. and for our influence to achieve corrections in the
course of a president adeline he's trying to blackmail us all the time he just when he needs our help now he is offering no he released a german turkish. journalists just a few days ago to make a nice weather and nice feelings but he didn't change course and time is not on his side. so the first country which would be interested that talking doesn't goes down the drain struck a and the first leader who should be interested. should be president adeline yes we can helpp him but under a very firm condition. and this is the moment where we can finally influence wrong tucker's behavior and tried to get him to correct his course and that is cool his financial courses economic course and how he deals with allies he is an unreliable ally. and you can't be a free ride a in the toll just using nato wanted need when you need it. and not paying attention to the interests of your closest allies like united states and germany when you think you have other
interests. and russia or china is not a serious alternative for the for the long range. turkish a policy where they want to find a place in the world. the question is a before we talk about the conditionality in the terms would have to be struck for germany helping turkey the let's just address the question of what would happen if turkey and dave germany and europe. to turn in a blind deitz took at this time of crisis if they look the other way and say we cannot support a country that's no longer committed to democracy what would happen. is a take on that question. us turkey's largest trading partner by far. the biggest investor as well so a recession and turkey would be bad news for many european businesses. european banks especially those in france italy and spain would be hit hard if turkish businesses couldn't pay back loans denominated in euros dollars.
so the economic trouble in tacky could also have serious political consequences. some experts predict two new surgeon refugees and one that domestic extremist groups could try to take advantage of economic and political turmoil. president and one keeps blaming the west for his problems he threatened to turn toward authohoritarian states like china and russi. techie might even decide to leave nato. what does ecoconomic and polititical i instability ad have mee for the rest of the world? how dangerous is an unstable turkey center i think it's very dangerous -- i agree the first to lose would be turkey. that's true but maybe the second to lose would be europe. it's very close. we have to think geographically. there are three point. five million of syrian refugees in turkey of turkish government says it's more
than that around four million -- there is a fiji deal that has been struck and it seems to be. functioning. what would happen if turkey were really to go down? where are all these people going to go what about the turkey citizens look at venezuela? of course turkey is not at that point but just thinking of the worst case scenario what is going to happen to all those people are they going to stay are they going to look for better options. so i i feel is very very dangerous for turkey and for for the european union for for turkey to be left alone at a time like this. the refugee issue is a very grave and serious issue here of what about the thing is the status of turkey in nato cold turkey eventually withdrawal from day to how serious is that correct. i don't think that the the threat is really big of cost as a sudden risk and we don't want to push them in that direction. but if turkey has its senses together they wouldn't leave
nato because of cell phone rational national interest. and so the question is now how do we balance the turkish interests and our interests and i'm rather i'm not full soft conditions i'm also not somebody's saying. just we dot have to o we we we can it doesn't matter for us of calls it matters but we should be aware. of our own influence and how important we are for them and i i've rather the feeling. that we are much more important to outdo on and the well being of truckee. than turkey is dependent than than we depend on talkies well being. of course we depend on it but we have the better cards and that should be the condition for a fair deal said we are we are of all possibilities of our influence. and how much everyone needs europe and the west to modernize talkie to stabilize took a and to get the economy going again and
that. these other conditions for a fair deal and tucker should be interested in it we should be interested in but we shouldn't make us. too cheap the deal from outside actually a good time. to to help turkey to get back on the democracy trapping job and for the first on the economic stability track and then of course. but democracy how it works in germany and france i don't think it's realistic to expect that this is the way to a customer christy will look like a bad one and the next. yes i mean he just it's a country he's a new full time he's he's almost an autocratic leader says no longer. i need to be honest to all this talk of players conditionality is not going to be listening he's going to be looking the other way no. no he is listening and as you mentioned as the deal about the refugees this thing is working so if we if we strike a deal under the right times. he's williling to o that isy lesson i draw from the
migrant a deal was struck [inaudible] a lot. this is a i hate to say this is typically german web looking at things that somehow people. states and and leaders of states a rational actors then not look at putin look at trump -- look at some of the things about our own leadership is done look at greased i mean. no. look look at venezuela look at mr maduro. rationality does not impinge on politics. mostly not autocrats therefore if turkey goes down the drain did turn the this isn't will not mean the end of mr adelaide just give him. an opportunity to ramp up his his autocratic -- way of dealing with society that would everyone i meet it's yeah people in times of stress people tried to dictators when they feel a little better. they think about democracy that's the way things go and this idea of the borough
rational actors is just not borne out by reality to the point is now we are interested. that turkey doesn't go down the drain economically that's a prime interest because if it does go down the drain economic everything else goes down the drain. now if we help them will that help democracy we don't know. we don't know but we should make that a conditionality because they wanted to they would accept it that we agree. i wouldn't make democracy a point that part of the conditionality but i think. leaders are behaving rationally it's just a question what you call rational and irrational of course is the facts. of course the interest of ms stop now do on is to get a deal as cheap as possible. and our interest is to get the not cheap but which meets most of our conditions so there's says. and he is using that highway took an exit from time is all about deals in time time
is not on mr out to one side and that is our possibility our options now to influenc. it's been in office since two thousand three it doesn't look as though it's going to be walking away from the presidency anytime soon. yeah but he has changed a lot i mean at the beginning when when when out on first came to power we had still very much the thinking of a military regime sweating talking before. and he feels that the times european union and that was our common interest. to liberalize the tucker society because it was his way to get get also more religious freedom which was a no go under the military rulers before. at that time we had a common interest and now his interest has changed now he himself is the dominating factor he himself is the autocratic factor in the political spectrum. and here we are don't have the common interest here we try to correct his course and now was the moment to do that. but at that time with the european union do they they they said okay we don't want turkish membership will give
them a privileged partnership. so this again drew turkey back. and now at this point i think it's really really important that turkey doesn't kill itself left alone again. the so much mistrust between the two sides of the the the hello always made it clear that she opposes turkish entry to the e. u. which was always viewed as an insult and at the same time. the president dead ones renting a raving about jim and german* procedures and attitudes which it has done on a many occasions being perceived as insulting as well. how is it possible to see under the medical and president at one sitting down trump style and striking a deal? it's very difficult. but it is i i thought i believe both l leaders shoud should really sit down and look for a reasonable solution. we would expect them to be reasonable. this is not always the case as we see it i'm very optimistic that exactly what what they will do.
it's not going to happen over the next days but i i expect to see this rational deal and compromise over the next weeks and maybe. two or three months because the house is on fire. and when the house is on fire. you don't have the luxury to discuss things just call the firefighters and this time it's the financial firefighters as the international monetary fund's itself from the european union. and after one has. to meet certain conditions set us all what i'm saying i'm expecting that that is going to happen i still believe in this kind of originality of course he has to sell it domestically. and he will sell it. dear thor x. how he sell it will sound very different than how we will sell it to our audience but that's normal in international politics is not. alone. yeah i mean i i hope you're right okay i hope you're right but look. arjun argentina was in a similar. situation couple months back and they called in the imf
the five artists as you say and they're back on course with i am and directives. that who is. being called a missed out tom which is basically the arab agent of iran. and they're gonna lend him billions of billions of dollars and i fear you know if we don't make an alternative often say look don't take the money from qatar you get the conditions are going to be awful you gonna. lou well everything you say. take our money. we also impose conditions you know it's not nice to you but at least we back on the right side of history -- that's what we should be doing that's what i'm saying instead of sort of keeping office it was nothing to do with us yeah okay very on the same side i'm e expected for the alternative offered but not too cheap. rather a little bit more contest etcetera i think a lot of our viewers will be listening and thinking. asking themselves the question whether there is a sense that germany has a special responsibility. for turkey in its population of ac million people given that there is such a subset of a large turkish community in germany which many very many
people are aware of what what you'll take the on the question of course there is this -- extreme historic tied there they're all these the people with turkish origin living here about three million people so of course is a very very important -- partner turkey and they're very important parts of this is a window of opportunity whether whether it could be a recess on turkish german relations. he hopefully hopefully that's what i'm but what i'm hoping -- for if if if president erdo on dozens of make interesting statements as he did in the in the previous two years -- it would be it would be an opening for germany to take a closer again. until a medical issue has let it be known she hasn't actually come out and spoken exposed explicitly on what the older we've been talking about but she has let it be known that she herself does not favor. financial aid from germany to took at this point in time is she getting it right or is she getting it wrong. well first there's there's this upcoming gum summit in
and turkey on syria they're going to be meeting there and then present are due on is going to be coming here before that the finance ministers are going to be again meeting in berlin. so i think this is a process that's going to kind of allow the the the leaders to see and talk behind closed doors and i'm a little bit look at how they can manage a deal. for the soul of course michael doesn't want to get it open check to to add on that would be a long long thing to do. michael getting it right to getting it wrong. you can only get to top right. she is getting it right because this is not about the bilateral. if the deal with the united states with the imf with your thank you all for that thanks very much indeed for joining me today crisis in turkey should. europe prop up and one that's being on debate. have we given you plenty of food for thought come by next week trust by by çç??>