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tv   The Rachel Maddow Show  MSNBC  November 5, 2015 1:00am-2:01am PST

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>> very kind of you. know that i will not be asleep between now and that forum. >> you people watching this think you're joking about that. >> no. >> that is a true thing. i know you well enough to know that's true. >> liesing down in bed, i'm staring at the ceiling freaking out. thank you very much. >> all right. thanks to you at home for joining us this hour. there's news going on in the world right now and even into tonight. we have a lot coming up on tonight's show. news tonight that one major household name, presidential contender, may not be getting into the republican debate for the first time. a new person at the kid's table. that story ahead. there's also news tonight on what may be the death of a political issue that both republicans and democrats have been up in arms about for eight straight years now. the keystone pipeline is looking like it may be dead after all these years of fighting over it and there's really interesting news on that tonight.
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but the biggest news in the country and the biggest news in the world right now searches the plane crash of metro jet flight 9268 over egypt. that terrible crash of that flight full of russian vacationers happened on saturday. all 224 people on board were killed when the plane came down over the sinai peninsula. this is a map showing egypt as a whole, the sinai peninsula is this part over here which is quite separate from the rest of egypt. in the sinai, they talk about the rest of egypt as mainland egypt. but the sinai is where the plane came down shortly after taking off from a relatively small airport at the international resort town at the very tip of the sinai peninsula, a town called sharm el sheikh. that plane crash as you know it happened on saturday, just a terrible story. the crash has remained in the news every day since saturday because authorities don't know what that brought that plane down. that remains the case tonight. bottom line.
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there's still no official pronouncement that anybody knows exactly what happened to that plane. but when the story of this plane crash turned today, to not just the distant prospect, not just the threat but as of today the real fear that that plane might have been brought down by a bomb, it was interesting that that news today came first from the uk of all places. the british government convened an emergency cabinet meeting today and after that emergency cabinet meeting the british prime minister put out an order and a statement. the order was to halt all flights to britain from that sharm el sheikh airport. in a statement that rocketed around the world, explaining why that order had been issued by the british government, the prime minister said, quote, while the investigation is still ongoing we cannot say categorically why the russian jet crashed but as for information has come to light we have become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device. and that's why this is the
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biggest news in the world today. the british government has not said what this new information is. that increased their concerns the flight was brought down by a bomb other than mechanical failure or another reason but it caused the british government to take this rather drastic step of not letting anymore planes bound for the uk take off from that airport at sharm el sheikh. and we'll have more on the logistical importance on that in a moment. but after the british made this announcement, and made this policy decision today, nbc news was told by a u.s. official that, indeed, the evidence indicates that it was a bomb that brought down that flight. again, though, caution, that is not any sort of official pronouncement from the u.s. government. that is one anonymous official characterizing the evidence that way to nbc news. but there is an official investigation under way. the official investigation is the egyptians because the crash
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happened on their te tori and to a plane just taking off from an egyptian airport. investigation involve it is russians as a russian plane full of russian citizens that died, the french because the plane that crashed was an airbus a-320 so it was manufactured by a european company, head cansquartered in france and france the home of airbus is involved in the crash and that investigation also involves the german because that particular plane was built in hamburg. the investigation involves the irish because the plane was registered in ireland. and when you think about that, as the character of this international investigation into what happened with this plane crash on saturday, that makes it all the more interesting that news about this plane crash took such a dramatic turn toward the prospect of terrorism today with an announcement from the british government because the british government is not one of the countries who's taking part in that international invest into
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this crash. why did this news today come from the british? the reason the bringish are such a key part of the story, taken a critical and interventionist context and first to sound the alarm today about this incident and the prospect of terrorism, the reason that they feel so close to this story in sharm el sheikh is because as it happens there are a ton of british people in sharm el sheikh. right now. with this decision to not let flights take off from sharm el sheikh coming back to the uk, this means there are about 20,000 british citizens who are stranded at that resort town right now. 20,000. and that's a fairly typical number for this time of year. round trip flights from london to sharm el sheikh, to this specific place in egypt, you can get round trip floigts, a flight there and back for like $175. round trip airfare. and you're not miktsing up the
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geography in your head. they're not right next to each other. flying between london and sharm el sheikh is equivalent of new york city to bogota, colombia. if you want an impulse buy, quick vacation to some place warm because the london fog is bumming you out or something, last-minute vacation packages for an all inclusive vacation, seven straight nights at the grand oasis resort in sharm el sheikh and the flights, all inclusive, everything all in for seven nights, did thaet for 299 pounds. about $460. if you are traveling from london. and the reason they can do package deals like that for british tourists so cheaply, the reason they can do non-stop round trip flights less than 200 bucks to this place in egypt because there's such a great huge volume of tourist volume to sharm el sheikh.
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it's just one of those kind of accidents of tourism marketing and well trod paths among european tourists. sharm el sheikh is lovely. the mountains come right down to the sea and beautiful snorkeling and nice resorts and where brits go. british people go to sharm el sheikh for vacation by the tens of thousands. there are tens of thousands of them there every day. and that historical truth has persisted even over the past few years as islamic militancy in the sinai peninsula is a hard to ignore violent insurgency. mostly islamic militant attacks in the sinai target military facilities or police and soldiers. in another part of the sinai peninsula today, there was a suicide car bombing that killed at least four egyptian police officers, about 300 miles from sharm el sheikh. it was one big coordinated bombing attack ten years ago
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that did hit the resort town itself. did hit sharm el sheikh exactly. targeted or theist areas. remote detonated bombs. 88 people killed and nearly a dozen british tourists. that was ten years, 2005. this time last year, one relatively high profile group of militants in the sinai pledged allegiance to isis and calling themselves the sinai province of isis. that was about a year ago. and when that specific group immediately claimed responsibility when we learned that that russian plane had crashed in the sinai on saturday, most people blew it off. most people blew it off as bluster and wishful thinking. it was perceived as the group wanting credit to do with something they could not do with. they issued another claim of responsibility. they said it really was them. they bragged that they would never explain how they did it but they downed that plane. and you know what?
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the old cautions and caveats still remain in place. a group like isis and its affiliate in the sinai, they have every incentive to claim it's their work even if it is not. they would love to get credit for killing this many innocent civilians, particularly now that russia claims to be fighting against isis in syria to bolster the syrian dictator bashar al assad. to that point, russia has every incentive to blame it on a become or terrorist attack even if it's not because they would love to divert from the concern that their own plane crashed because of just something so dumb as a maintenance issue. but something has happened today in the international scrutiny of this incident if not the official investigation. something has happened today in the intelligence world that has led britain to quite literally strand 20,000 of their own citizens on the ground in a
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very, very, very popular british tourist destination which nevertheless is a place that the british government now believes may have been the origination point of a major international terrorist attack. with no british flights in or out of that airport at sharm el sheikh, how are all those 20,000 british people going to get home? don't know yet. they're stranded. again, there's no official word eater from the official investigation or from the u.s. government on the record. but nbc news contact with u.s. government officials yielded an anonymous claim that evidence related to this crash indicates somehow that it may well have been a bomb that brought down that plane. i can't be more specific about that because that's the only word that we have. if it was a bomb, if the isis claims of responsibility that it was their bomb, if those turn out to be correct, naturally,
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that would make this not only isis' deadliest attack yet on an international target but one of the deadliest acts of international terrorism of any kind anywhere in the world since 9/11. joining us is nbc news justice correspondent pete williams. thanks very much for having you here. good to have you here. >> sure. >> i'm very sorry. i have no audio. i can't hear you, pete f. you don't mind, we'll have to take a quick break and fix this and we'll be right back. you can hear me. i can't hear anything else. we'll be right back. for our players' choice pizzas, we made the nfl players' favorite pizzas. now you can eat like an nfl player. if i can eat like a football player... i can talk like one... i can workout like one. i can even dress like one. look: you can eat the pizza, you just can't steal my shorts.
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joining us is nbc news yus tis correspondent pete williams. i'm sorry about that. >> these things happen. >> the word from the british government today was as more information has come to light we have become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device. do we have any news about why the uk government believes that or why our own government might be leaning that way? >> yes. i think we do. there's actually been a pretty
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consistent message from the british publicly and back channel and from american intelligence officials and the pentagon today. basically, two tracks of information. one is the physical evidence itself. now, i should say before i delve into this, something that you said earlier but i think it bears repeating which is no one says they know what happened. there's no conclusive evidence of what brought this plane down. they don't know what it was. they still say it might be a mechanical failure. now, having said that, why are they growingly concerned it was an attack of terrorism? two channels, one is the evidence itself. the pieces on the ground. consistent with the explosive. not definitive and not definitive the other direction so it's part of what the physical evidence doesn't show and part of what it does show. so highly suggestive that it was a bomb. second is the claims of isis before this happened that were -- the claims of isis,
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rather, that came out after the crash, both publicly and we're told some in intercepted communications where isis is saying that they did this. now, again, that's not definitive either. and if you just take a look at any one of these things, for example, the isis claim of credit is coming in a text message and two audio messages and in one of the most recent text message, they say prove that we have not downed it. they say, we will allah willing declared the method of downing it at the time we want and the form we see. and the normal course for isis if you think, for example, about the garland, texas, attack is immediately afterwards to be very specific about what they did, charts and graphs, circles and arrows, pictures of people involved and they haven't done that here so, you know, all of which is to say it's very suggestive. there are some things in intelligence that they're not
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telling us. we have a sense of what some of it is and we can't report it. but all of those things together, rachel, the physical stuff and the intelligence lead them in a direction but don't get them to the conclusion. >> clearly we have in terms of thinking about isis or a group like them, we obviously have motive. the question is whether they have means and i think that brings us pretty specifically to the question of whether or not we understand enough about the security of the airport from which this aircraft took off and any security concerns around this airline specifically. is sharm el sheikh considered to be a dangerous place in terms of terrorist risk at the airport? >> well, it's certainly a dangerous part of the world. >> right. >> the thinking was that the airport's security was actually not bad. now, there are two ways a bomb can get on an airplane. one is that a passenger can carry it on and we have been told that intelligence officials have scrubbed both the passenger
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manifest and the crew list and haven't found anyone that was previously known to be connected with terrorism. now, of course, it could be someone that wasn't known and second way is the cargo and you're seeing this second layer of concern about people around the plane, the people who load the baggage and the mail and whatever else may be on that plane. one other point here about the british timing. i think one of the thing that is we heard earlier today is, you know, why did they do it right now? and it may not simply be a tipping point of physical evidence and intelligence. but also, the simple fact of the calendar. this is apparently the time, you know, here in the u.s., people change over on the weekend if they're going to go to the beach. you know? the new people come in on saturday and the old people leave. apparently we were approaching that changeover point for sharm el sheikh. apparently this time of the week and that was another factor that led to british to make this decision about their own flights and now the decision of what to
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do about the 20,000 citizens there left on the grund. >> right. >> pete williams, nbc justice correspondent, thank you so much. i appreciate it. >> my pleasure. we'll be right back. thanks very much for joining us.
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i apologize we've been having spectacular technical difficulty this is evening. in which case, i feel like i'm in space and nobody can hear me scream but i believe we're making normal sized television with audio and everything and i believe, god willing, that joining us now from istanbul is my friend richard engel, nbc news chief foreign correspondent to talk about the new news and new intelligence on the plane
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crash. richard, of course, covering isis for years. thank you so much for hanging with us. sorry about the delay. >> it's not a problem at all. can you hear me? >> i can hear you! god willing. thank you. >> reporter: the science works. the magic of television. >> let me ask you, richard, about, obviously, the bottom line here again is we do not know if i sis is just bragging. taking credit for something that they couldn't conceivably have done or didn't do in this instance when they say they brought down this plane. if they did bring down this plane, if they did get a bomb on this plane, for example, somehow, is this a big expansion about what we know about their capabilities particularly in that part of the sfwhorld. >> reporter: it depends, really. isis has enormous capabilities in iraq and syria. the group operates tanks, it controls cities, it controls the lives of millions of people. and isis has been expanding very rapidly. it is not like al qaeda. al qaeda was difficult to join.
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you had to earn al qaeda's trust. you had to in some cases kick back money to al qaeda. al qaeda didn't want you unless you could prove you're worthy. isis isn't not like that. isis is actively advertising that if you want to set up your own isis outpost it will fund money to you so the degree of isis' capability depends on place to place. in libya, they have a very extensive and very effective network. in sinai, i think it was an opportunity. a u.s. official that i spoke to who said there is confidence that it was a bomb on board. not something fired from the ground but somehow that a bomb got on the plane. thought that perhaps isis saw an opportunity that at this small regional airport in egypt security might not have been as tight as it could have been and this was a opportune moment for the group the strike.
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it's also just about the one-year anniversary when isis declared its allegiance in sinai to the isis main group of the amir. >> we have seen a different number of isis plots using aircraft. 9/11 most notoriously and the shoe bomber, the underwear bomber, there have been other, cargo plane plots. al qaeda is very attracted to using aircraft as trying to pull off spectacular international attacks. does that mean we should just expect isis to look in that same direction? is this a surprise? have we seen isis look toward aircraft in the past to get the terroristic message across? >> reporter: well, airports and aircraft have always been tar gets for terrorists, even go back to the attacks in the '70s and '80s by palestinian groups.
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they have been something that militant groups have tried to target in order to gain notoriety, to create fear and terror. i was also told that isis' capability to target aircraft or to attack a sophisticated airport is still not considered as high as al qaeda's but isis is incredibly ambitious. it would attack an aircraft, a cruise ship. the group has promised to make 9/11 look like a sideshow. so i think it will look for any kind of opportunity, aircraft or beyond aircraft. >> richard, if we do -- if the train of events and the train of sort of noise from the uk government and the u.s. government, these assurances, even if they're so far anonymous assurances it is starting the look like a bomb, if they get
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closer to concluding that isis was behind this and planted a bomb on the aircraft, do you expect anything in terms of a response either from russia or the uk or the u.s. or anybody else in this? >> reporter: yes. >> what do you expect for a response? >> reporter: i expect a big russian response. if this starts to become the accepted truth and it plays out in the russian media and as you know russian state controlled media is very powerful, it tends to whip up patriotism and right now russia's already engaged in a military campaign in syria. this could very easily galvanize public support for that campaign. there's already a degree of public support for that campaign and russia using this to show off the military might, to show off how it stands with its friend bashar al assad, different than the united states which russia claims doesn't stand with its allies. so, if that ground swell of public support builds even further after this, which if
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it's proved to be a bomb, i think that public opinion will head in that direction and we could see russia very aggressively starting to target isis in syria. and not just opposition groups and people to support bashar al assad. so i think we are going the see a response if it proves to be the truth. >> richard engel, nbc news chief foreign correspondent getting up at an unholy time of day for us in istanbul, thank you for being with us. >> reporter: at least there's audio. >> exactly. which i'm cherishing right now having not had it far long time. thank you. we much more to come tonight including stunning polling news that could likely change who's in the next republican debate and a lat ahead. almost none of which involves me having a working earpiece so i might just throw this away.
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so at this time on monday night the big breaking news we were covering at the top of the hour is unexpected decision from the company transcanada essentially pulling the plug on the keystone xl pipeline. transcanada wrote to the state department asking that the u.s. government suspend the application to build that massive and hugely controversial pipeline to take hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil from tar sands country up in canada all the way down to the gulf of mexico. the pipeline, of course, the subject of widespread protests
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and very loud political activism not to mention loud partisan taunting from the republican side throughout the obama presidency. transcanada asking the obama administration to essentially shelf their application seems like basically the last we would hear about keystone for a very long time. certainly for the remainder of the obama presidency but a funny thing happened on the way of transcanada asking the obama administration to suspend the application for keystone. the obama administration has now said, no. we'll not suspend your application. this is kind of amazing. the state department got this letter from transcanada on monday. they have been reviewing this proposed pipeline for years now. they initially reabouted to the letter saying, thanks, transcanada, got your letter, we'll get back to you and then responded today essentially, yeah, we understand you'd like us to stop the review process for the pipeline but we'll go ahead and not do that. the state department says they intend to complete the review of keystone, a rhee view under way
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to great controversy for years now. i'm not sure what transcanada was expecting for a response trying to pull the project but i imagine this wasn't it. >> given how long it's taken, it's -- it seems unusual to me to suggest that somehow it should be paused yet again. >> does he see this as something he wants to finish, complete, get off the plate before he leaves office? >> the president has said that before, yes. that he would like to have this determination be completed before he leaves office. >> he would like to have this determination completed before he leaves office. transcanada would please like to not have this determined before he leaves office. transcanada has asked that the whole entire process put on hold presumably to come back to the issue with a fresh president who isn't this one. the obama administration instead appears to be going full speed ahead. once that announcement from
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transcanada on monday night it was interesting. the activists opposing keystone for years, you know, they celebrated. they started to thank each other for having supported the campaign to stop keystone but they also started pushing the exples sitly for the white house to not let transcanada off the hook yet. don't let them pause this process. quote, behind the end of nine innings to suspend the game until after the next election. there they're trying to avoid the final inspector general nominee of a ruling against them. it should not give them the satisfaction. it sort of seems like president obama might not give them the satisfaction. he might just go ahead and rule on this keystone permit application anyway. whether the company likes it or not. keystone seems to be trying to die. how it dies might be a very fascinating end to this story. watch this space. many wrinkle creams come with high hopes, but hope... doesn't work on wrinkles. neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair
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you probably can't workout like but now you can eat like one. get our players' choice pizzas. the new sriracha meats, the bbq chicken and bacon, or the loaded works. just $12 each. better ingredients. better pizza. better football. at the new papa the big news, of course, is that win in ohio! a law professor who quit his job and staked the run for the presidency on cleaning up all the lousy foul stuff in the process of the democracy, the big anonymous money, the gerrymandering of political districts so the same party always wins that district year after year. yeah, sure, larry may have just quit the presidential race this week but he did just win ohio last night. voters in ohio last night by a 40-point margin decided that
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ohio shouldn't be able to gerrymandering its districts anymore. the problem with this in ohio, by 2012, the districts so screwed up and partisan even though democrats got more than 50,000 more votes than republicans did in that year's elections, republicans still even though they got less votes still got almost 60% of the seats in the ohio house. because the partisan districts were gerrymandered so badly. that happened in 2012. but according to ohio voters, that should not happen again. it was a vote last night on a constitutional amendment to do districts in that state on a non-partisan basis from here on out. that amendment passed with 71% of the vote. it's not for ohio's seats in congress, this is just for the state legislature. but still. 71% of the vote. that's a big deal. and somewhere in america in law school that tulty housing, lawrence lessig is celebrating ohio or cursing himself for getting out of the presidential
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race too soon. in the great state of pennsylvania, three open streets on the supreme court in that state. and yes, while, it is creepy to vote for judges particularly in partisan terms, in pennsylvania last night, democratic candidates took all three of the supreme court seats that were open. that will give democrats a majority on that state's supreme court for basically a decade. now, is it weird to talk about a partisan majority on a court? yes, it is. but pennsylvania's partisan majority on the supreme court is now democratic after the most expensive judicial elections in state history. in the big cities of indianapolis and charlotte, north carolina, and orlando, florida, and philadelphia as well as salt lake city in utah, voters in all the cities picked the democratic and or progressive choice for mayor. salt lake city, in fact, looks like it's getting the first-ever openly gay mayor. and, yes, salt lake city in utah.
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in maine and in seattle, voters approved a new pressures for the transparency of money in politics and public financing of elections. maine and seattle both. in new jersey, republicans thought they would whittle away at the democrats' majority in the state assembly last night but instead democrats increased the number of seetds that they hold in the state assembly and democrats have bigger majorities in the new jersey state legislature than they have had at any time since the 1970s. and jefferson county, colorado, a recall effort last night against three tea party school board members trying to throw local history curriculum to make it more patriotic even if it was a little less historic. the tea party act vitss on the school board got support of the koch brothers' network and very, very, very deep pockets and that recall effort in jefferson county, colorado, was successful last night and all three tea partiers lost their seats.
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in mississippi, before last night, there was precisely one statewide office holder in mississippi who was a democrat. the state's democratic attorney general, jim hood. and before last night he was the only democrat left in statewide office in mississippi. tonight, jim hood remains the only statewide elected democrat in mississippi because jim hood beat the odds and beat the geopolitical head wind and held on to the seat last night. and other than that, things didn't go great for democrats and progressives on election night 2015. i mean, if you were rooting for the blue team last night, those things that i just mentioned, those were probably the things that you were cheering about. those were the available straws if you wanted to do some grasping at straws in terms of progressive victories last night on election night in america. but elsewhere, and mostly it was not a good night for the blue
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team and the republicans and the conservatives did pretty great. look at mississippi. up ticket and down ticket from jim hood in mississippi, the republican govern nor of the state re-elected after running basically unopposed the mississippi democratic party couldn't get it together to pick themselves a democratic candidate who anyone had ever heard of. mississippi also last night upped the size of the republican majority in the house. they're now at something quite close to a super majority in terms of republican rule in the state legislature. in virginia, democrats thought that they were going to win the state senate last night. they only needed to flip one senate seat to take control but they failed at that effort. virginia senate is still republican. houston, houston, texas, now the largest city in the country that does not have a nondiscrimination ordinance. also the only big city in texas without a nondiscrimination ordinance and led the human rights campaign to ask the nfl today to maybe rethink their plans to hold the 2017 super
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bowl in houston in a little more than a year from now. but today the nfl said they're not changing their plans. they'll keep the super bowl in houston in 2017 despite the city last night repealing the nondiscrimination ordinance. it is now legal for you to get fired or thrown out of your housing or any number of other things in houston just because somebody thinks you're gay. and then there's kentucky. republican matt bevin is now governor-elect. basically all the polls in the state predicting that the race to go the other way. matt bevin, republican matt bevin won the governorship last night turning the state of kentucky red taking over from a democratic governor. the first republican governor of kentucky in decades. last night's election makes matt bevin second republican governor of kentucky literally in the last four decades. that race was just a huge upset for democrats. by a small margin. the other kentucky race a little
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lower down the ticket that's really big, national implications was surprisingly enough the race for state auditor. the democratic incumbent state auditor in kentucky, i know it doesn't sound like an important position for nationwide implications here but follow this. adam edelen, he lost his seat last night. he's going to be replaced by a republican. this is a down ticket race and the result is a huge deal because there's a lot of talk that the very talented mr. edelen was the democratic rising star in kentucky politics and a lot of people were expecting him to run a very tough campaign for the united states senate against rand paul this time next year. now that adam edelen has lost the statewide elected office as auditor, it is a much more open question of whether he'll wage a run against rand paul for senate
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and whether he'll win or any democrat in kentucky did k and an easier ride for rand paul facing charges, facing calls from kentucky republicans and even national republicans to drop out of his presidential race and focus on his senate bid since the senate seat is so hard to hold on. that pressure will ease up considerably on rand paul now that adam edelen no longer has a statewide elected i don't know in kentucky. big developments in kentucky and across the country and big down ticket results across the country for democrats, not just last night but over a period of the last couple of years that democrats are starting to get alarmed about. and the person i most want to talk to about that joins me next. stay with us.
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in the 2014 midterm elections the democratic party suffered fairly stunning losses. i mean, not just on the national level where republicans did
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great and democrats did badly, but down ticket, state legislatures, governors races across the country. it was for the democrats in a word devastating. that is not my word but what the democratic party had to say about itself in their own post mor tum analysis of what happened to the party in 2014. quote, we have suffered devastating losses at all levels of government since 2008. including 69 house seats, 13 senate seats, 910 legislative seats, 30 state legislative chambers, 11 governorships. last night democrats suffered another loss on top of that one losing the hotly contested race for governor in kentucky. that one flips red, too. make that 12 governorships lost by the democratic party since 2008. and counting. a man named chris hayes today called this phenomenon and i quote, the absolute december mags of local democratic parties in red states in the obama era. absolute december mags?
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really? joining us now is that man, chris hayes. >> not the deci mater. >> chronicler of it. >> absolutely deci mags? >> i don't think that's an overstatement. i think that, well, so there's bunch of things happening, right? there's a partisan geographical realignment about the south and the south turning over to the republican party. the once solid democratic south. taken a very long time to get there. my favorite example of how long it's taken is kim davis was a democrat -- >> yes. >> until this whole thing went down, why a democrat? a local party machine that got her essentially elected with us a democratic machine and it hadn't been there since the civil war. right? so it has taken a long time and some ways that's not anyone's fault. that's kind of makes sense. i mean, the south is a conservative place. the republicans is a conservative party. kim davis should be a republican based on her belief system.
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we had though seen the completion of that project in a totally stunning way. i mean, we have supermajorities throughout the deep south alabama and mississippi where they have a near supermajority. you have also seen thanks to the massive turnout problems democrats faced in 2010 and 2014, big margins in the non red states of the south, right? you have the problem in ohio or wisconsin or in florida which let's remember barack obama won twice. right? really big margins for republicans and this is something we have seen throughout the country, not just in the deep south but most pronounced in the deep south. >> you're saying that there's a geographic way to understand what's happening in the deep south and definitely the obama era democratic party tried to make inroads there, right? the big effort in north carolina, for example. >> yep. >> including the north carolina hosting the democratic convention in 2012. >> yep. >> the big blue hope in georgia
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in 2012. there's been efforts to fight that but you're saying that's essentially geographically cooked and then something else going on in other parts of the state that doesn't make sense in terms of that same geographic partisan realignment? >> i think there's a bunch of things and partisan realignment. geographical partisan realignment, right? two, democrats have not figured out how to turn their people out in non presidential elections. full stop. please stand by.
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ryan grimm was on last night and talked about new hampshire and iowa. they're getting asked questions about national political issues. not what are you going to do about the dump they want to put outside manchester? what are you going to do about ethanol? >> now everybody is saying i saw this thing on fox news or x right-wing website and i want you to respond to that. >> local media in this country has been eviscerated over the last ten years. local newspapers, state house reporter, the media people are consuming increasingly is through their facebook feed, national news outlets. every election, it's an inversion of the all politics is local. every election is now national, right? you try to run to be governor of kentucky and you want to do these kentucky things about kentucky. you say barack obama, barack obama, barack obama, and that works. >> or they say isis or sharia law. does the democratic party have anything out for the candidates and the would-be leaders for the party to say i know how to fix this. >> they can build capacity, 30%
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in a gubernatorial election in kentucky is not handed down by god as the ceiling for turnout. that number can be moved. and if anyone has shown that, the barack obama campaign 2008 and 2012. if you put in the money and the effort and the organizing and the will, you can get people out. >> and some next democratic genius to figure out how to do it in a year that's not divisible by four. chris hayes, the host of "all in." i hereby apologize to your family through you. we'll be right back. stay with us.
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one thing donald trump has seen a lot of on time in the campaign trail is protests against him. there were protests at the donald trump rally in iowa just a couple of weeks ago. there was this one in massachusetts right around the same time. and tonight, there was a very interesting donald trump protest right outside the building. it was a protest of a really specific kind with a really specific aim. because donald trump is set to be the host of "saturday night live" this. co-ing weekend. and ahead of that appearance, there's been an organized effort to try to get nbc to dump donald trump of host of "saturday night live" because, of course, about his controversial remarks about immigration and immigrants. latino groups is say they're turning in more than 500,000 signatures calling on nbc to
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dump donald trump as the "saturday night live" host for this weekend's show. nbc is declining comment on that petition tonight. as of now, donald is still the "saturday night live" host this weekend. whether that remains the case, stay tuned. we'll be right back. this is brian. every day, brian drives carefully to work. and every day brian drives carefully to work, there are rate suckers. he's been paying more for car insurance because of their bad driving for so long, he doesn't even notice them anymore. but one day brian gets snapshot from progressive.
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now brian has a rate based on his driving, not theirs. get snapshot and see just how much your good driving could save you.
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late tonight, fox news has just released their brand-new national republican poll. and, yeah, polls are all interesting, but this one in particular, this may have a hugely important consequence on the race. this may have a hugely important consequence in terms of who gets into the next debate. the next debate for the republicans is tuesday. it's a republican debate hosted by the fox business channel. in order to get into that debate, a candidate has to be polling at at least 2.5% in the
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four most recent national polls conducted through november 4, which is today, as recognized by the fox business channel. okay, so that's what they've said about the criteria. what fox has said is not which polls they're going to recognize. so we're guessing at this a little bit. but using their previous as a guide, this is what the polls look like. down on the bottom at the bubble, you see former governor mike huckabee of arkansas and kentucky senator rand paul. they're just both just above that 2.5% cutoff. you also see there new jersey governor chris christie failing to qualify. that's the three polls that were out before tonight. remember, the cutoff is tonight at midnight. and now tonight late tonight, we got the brand in new fox news poll, in theory because of the cutoff date at midnight, this should be the last poll that factors into who qualifies.
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and according to the standard fox business has set who gets into the debate, rand paul and mick huckabee would need to be at 2.5% to be in the clear. chris christie would need to be 3% or better to qualify for the debate. but this is what this says. the latest fox news poll, you have rand paul, mike huckabee, but chris christie does not hit 3, he's only at 2. and when you factor in that news poll, according to the fox business criteria, chris christie does not make the cut. to be fair, fox business will not officially announce who's in the debate until tomorrow night at 7:00. and remember, fox business hasn't said exactly which polls they're going to use in the polling average for deciding who's to qualify. maybe they'll fudge it and change which polls they'll use and find something favorable for chris christie to factor it in. maybe they'll find chris christie at 2.25% is close enough.
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but it stands right now to our best knowledge, that chris christie is going to be at the kids table tuesday night. drama. first look" is up next. >> it's thursday, november 5th. right now on "first look," did isis kill 224 passengers by bombing a russian airliner? and if isis is responsible, how will russia retaliate? filmmaker quentin tarantino speaks out exclusively to msnbc after his critical comments at an anti-police brutality contest. swirling over gop presidential candidate donald trump's guest host on "saturday night live." "first look" starts right now. good morning, i'm dara brown. it's a dramatic turn in the investigation into that russian air disaster over egypt's sinai desert. a u.s. official tells nbc news evidence indicates it was likely a


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