this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. ♪ >> good evening from washington. lots to do tonight and we'll get to all of it in just a moment. but first, i want to show you some live pictures of a local political story that's getting a lot of national attention. it's of course rahm emanuel versus frankly the city of chicago. protesters are marching through downtown chicago right now along what's known as the magnificent mile. calling for mayor rahm emanuel's resignation in the wake of multiple police-involved fatal shootings. our correspondent on the ground estimates there are between 200 and 300 peaceful demonstrators right now. we'll keep an eye on this throughout the hour and show you what mayor emanuel said today that actually sparked today's protest. let me turn back to national politics, and of course the topic on our minds constantly these days, the republican presidential race.
donald trump is dominating all the attention and most of the polls in the republican presidential primary. whatever you want to say about him, trump has been unmatched in keeping eyes and ears on his campaign. but beneath the noise, the bombast, the controversy, is there a stealth gop front-runner that's not donald trump? it's a senator by the name of ted cruz. take a look at the latest national poll. cruz is firmly in second place, and rocketing up 11 points from late september. he's got more momentum than anyone else. when you dig a little deeper into some of those polls, you get to the crux of cruz's strength. in the quinnipiac national poll, cruz ties trump amongst tea partiers and white born again evangelicals or christians. those are the folks who show up. and a tale of two polls shows why cruz's support may be stronger beneath the surface,
particularly in the all-important first caucus state, iowa. this week, we got two new iowa polls. monmouth university showed cruz overtaking trump by five points. that's registered republican voter who had voted in past caucuses. that same day, a cnn poll that showed trump 13 points ahead of cruz. what's the difference? cnn drew its poll out of all iowa adults, than perhaps getting republicans that might not show up in caucus. trump's big number relies more on newer republican voters coming into the fold. something you don't see in iowa very often. and when you hear ted cruz talk about trump, it's clear, and cruz has said so himself, he wants to bring trump voters into the cruz camp. >> shouldn't you be more assertive when donald trump comes out and says he wants to keep all muslims out of the country? >> look, i've said i disagree
with that proposal, but it is amazing how eager the media is -- the number one question i get day in and day out is, please attack donald trump, please attack donald trump. i'll point out, my approach to trump has been the same as my approach to every other republican candidate, which is that i'm not interested in personal insults and mud-slinging. >> you have been really forceful when other republicans have stepped out of line. and you can disagree with people on where the speed limit should be set, 55, 60, 65. i think people want to hear more from you, because there's a possibility that you're the republican nominee. and want you to speak out more forcefully. you disagree with it. how bad of an idea is it? is it offensive to who -- what we stand for as americans, or is it just a simple overreach? >> listen, i get that the media wants us to play theater critics and critique every other
proposal. what i'm focusing on are my only policy proposals. >> i think two name drops there of the media by ted cruz. you can see the full interview tomorrow on "morning joe." a lot of chances for cruz to take down trump, but cruz doesn't bite and he tells you why. one other reason he's the phantom front-runner is the money race. they got the most cache sh on h of any other candidate. i didn't even bring up his super pac, the organization, or the primary calendar. i'm joined by molly ball and brad todd who advising bobby jindal before jindal dropped out. so now he's unaffiliated and can freely criticize everybody, including us in the media. >> that's right. >> molly, let me start with you. you've been covering all these candidates. is it fair to say that ted cruz of all the people not named
trump, is he the guy that's most red to take trump's place? >> he certainly is in iowa. he's nipping at trump's heels in iowa. nationally, i think it's a little early to say that. because he really only has about half the support of trump. now, i was at a trump event recently and almost to a person, the only other candidate people would consider supporting was ted cruz. that was not true a few months ago. so he's gaining among that angry conservative base that supports trump. the question is, can they be moved off of trump? and so, there's no prize for second place in the republican primary. and there's also now prize for winning iowa in recent years. so he's doing well in iowa. he's surging nationally, but i think it's preliminary to call him a front-runner in waiting. >> brad, you spent a lot of time. bobby jindal's path was iowa. >> sure. >> you start from there. who would you rather be right
now in iowa, trump, cruz, rubio? >> i think right now in iowa you'd have to say you'd rather be ted cruz. and iowa, you're right, it has not picked the nominee in the last few years, but you have to win iowa or new hampshire, and we've never had a field this crowded before. so winning anywhere early is going to matter. i think winning anywhere in the first two states is going to matter a great deal. in the end, cruz is being very patient with donald trump. trump is his number one opponent. trump's number one opponent is 50. we don't have any idea if he could get 50 in any state. and rubio's opponent is ted cruz. he needs to finish ahead of him in iowa and new hampshire. >> molly, i think the other part of this trump-cruz conundrum and it goes to the poll explanation we just had. when you narrow down the sample to likely republican primary or caucus goers, cruz is doing much better. when you open it up to
potentially new voters, that's where trump pops. are trump's voters going to show up? they are a new breed of primary voters. they'll vote sometimes, but are they going to show up in primaries? what have you seen? >> well, what i have seen is a lot of people who are very committed. this is a self-selecting group, the people who go to trump's events, but the trump campaign, contrary to a lot of conventional wisdom. this is a real campaign, that is really collecting information from all of these people. they are keeping in contact with their supporters, getting ready to mobilize people, and their theory of the case is that you can reshape this electorate in a barack obama fashion, right? get all of these people who are not regular caucus-goers and get them to come out for a candidate who's give than any other kind of candidate we've seen before. so it's always, i think, problematic to argue against history. but i do think there is a possibility that these trump people, you know, these people are very passionate about trump. they're not casual supporters. >> that's right.
and that's what's interesting here. he brought up the barack obama example. nobody believes 225,000 democrats were going to show up in 2008. >> that's right. >> it doubled. it blew models out of the water. and yes, obama proved you can do it. >> he did. >> is trump going to do this in iowa? >> the answer is, we don't know. trump and rubio both making very large bets on winning voters over through the media, who will show up on caucus night and sit through a couple of hours of arguing with their neighbors and it's not like you walk in a voting booth and walk out. it's a commitment to caucus in iowa. that's one of the great things about the process and why the iowa caucus is such a service to the country, in my opinion. but cruz is taking a very different approach than rubio and trump. >> cruz has the more conventional way of doing it. >> and that will work if the turn-out is low. if the turn-out is huge, that's big for donald trump. >> and molly, i guess the thing
that i've been surprised it, it really seems to me, only three candidates right now are playing to win iowa. in some form, it's trump, cruz, and to a lesser extent it was carson. i think he's got some issues right now. none of the other candidates are playing to win iowa. not jeb, not rubio, as brad pointed out. mistake? >> well, rick santorum called and he would like to remind you that he's still in this race. >> fair enough. touche. >> and he won four years ago. he's an afterthought this time, and so is mike huckabee, who won in 2008, but the interesting thing about what cruz has managed to do, he's managed to elbow the other candidates out of that evangelical space. and they're not getting any oxygen. the question we need answered is, is the cruz phenomenon going to be a bubble like the ben carson one? he went up and down, like all the other candidates in 2012, who went up and down. michele bachmann, for example. that could be cruz's trajectory. he could have a bubble and drop,
or he could keep going up. >> that's a great point. bubble. >> here's the problem ted cruz faces. a lot of people view him as contrived and they don't think he's ever been intimate or authentic with him. that's a big test for ted cruz to break through. >> did you get that in your focus groups? >> yes, absolutely. that's a big bubble ted cruz has to burst and i don't know if he can rise to that test or not. >> brad todd, who people always ask, no, we're not related. we have some red hair, some gray beard and a little bit of both. and molly ball, thank you. coming up, republicans dump trump as the donald vows to never leave the 2016 race. but will the rnc's new rules make it easier for him to win the nomination? and later, new details about the lead-up to last week's deadly terror attack in san bernardino. we'll have the latest on the fbi's investigation ahead. and we're following ongoing protests in chicago as calls for
mayor rahm emanuel to resign are growing louder. here how the mayor is responding to those calls. that's coming up right after the break. ♪ the way i see it, you have two choices; the easy way or the hard way. you could choose a card that limits where you earn bonus cash back. or, you could make things easier on yourself. that's right, the quicksilver card from capital one. with quicksilver you earn unlimited 1.5% cash back
let's take you back to chicago, a local political story that's gone national. where several hundred demonstrators are marching in the downtown area, calling for mayor rahm emanuel's resignation. today's protest followed emanuel's speech to the city council where he apologized for his office's handling of the laquan mcdonald shooting and vowed to try and restore the public's trust. >> i take responsibility for what happened because it happened on my watch. and if we're going to fix it, i want you to understand, it's my responsibility with you. but if we're also going to begin the healing process, the first step in that journey is my step,
and i'm sorry. >> gun violence in chicago is at the center of spike lee's new film, which is called chiraq. i had a chance to sit down with lee for an upcoming edition of the sunday "meet the press." i asked him about chicago police shootings. here's part of what he told me. >> i'm tired of looking at these snuff films. i'm tired of it. and a lot of times there's no repercussion. i mean, why -- why did rahm and those guys decide to hold that tape for over a year? >> did you get an answer? >> what? >> has he been asked? >> he's been asked. >> what did he say? >> his answer has been that they were following procedure. >> okay, that might be true. that's why the feds are there then. if that's the answer, that's why the feds are there.
going from top to bottom. >> more on that, you'll see that on "meet the press." we're watching those ongoing protests and we'll bring you more of it if there's more to show. next, how the rnc plans to protect themselves from an insurrection at the 2012 convention is tying their hands this time when it comes to a new insurrection called donald trump.
yes, we'll have more on the rnc and the convention coming up. but time for the w's. the who, john boehner, who may have to find his next office on craig's list. former house speakers get government-funded offices, but conservative congressman walter jones and thomas massy are working on a bill to eliminate that perk. sorry, john. to the what. people are talking about politics on facebook. that's no surprise. but facebook announced today that the 2016 election was the most talked about topic on the
site this year, in 2015. what the hell are they going to talk about next year? meanwhile, the where. it's great britain, where parliament will consider debate on blocking donald trump from entering the country. not making this up. so far, over 300,000 people have signed a petition to keep trump out of england. now to the when. it's today. a large structure opened on the u.s.-mexican border. it's not a wall. but an airplane terminal. tijuana now has a terminal that extends into san diego, or as the locals don't like to call it, san diego. u.s. customers can bypass crossing the highway border, crossing to get to their flights. and now the why. no child left behind will soon be no more. the senate voted this morning, 85-12, for a new education bill that will reduce federal control of k through 12 education. among the why, it will keep
annual tests in elementary school, but will remove their high stakes consequences. on the presidential front, cruz, rubio, and sanders all missed the vote. lindsey graham was in favor and rand paul was among the 12 neighs. still ahead, hillary clinton calls for unity in the wake of trump's comments about mump immigrants. we'll check in on her campaign as she heads through iowa. plus, we'll walk you through a convention nightmare potential. you're watching "mtp daily." we'll be right back. proof of less joint pain. and clearer skin. this is my body of proof that i can fight psoriatic arthritis with humira. humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to both joint and skin symptoms. it's proven to help relieve pain, stop further joint damage and clear skin in many adults. doctors have been prescribing humira for 10 years. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers,
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it's a cash back win-win. with 1% when you buy and 1% as you pay. with two ways to earn on purchases, it makes a lot of other cards seem one-sided. tcount on someone's kid mistaking me for santa. i'm so sorry. come on sweetie. it's okay. and knowing right when my packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. one more reason this is our season. >> mr. trump's not a serious person. he's not a serious candidate. he's inflammatory. >> i do not believe donald trump will be the republican nominee. you don't have to like that answer, but that's the answer. >> there's no way that donald trump's going to be president. i've been saying that for weeks. i don't even take it seriously, because he isn't going to win. it's not going to happen. >> so says candidates who are not leading in the polls.
that's one thing to keep saying it. we're at six months of this. jeb bush, fiorina, john kasich down playing trump's chances at winning the republican nomination. not surprisingly, donald trump disagrees. he says he's in it to win it, telling "the washington post," quote, i will never leave this race. actually they put a period after each word there in the way he emphasized it. what we've asked here, on this show, if it's time for the republican establishment to panic and as the party tries to handle trump's controversial statements and his domination in the polls, the establishment may have no one to thank for a trump nomination, though, but themselves. here's why. the 2012 primary weakened mitt romney for the general election. that was the determination by the party elders of sorts. debates they believe pulled him farther right and competition drained his finances. after yet another presidential defeat, the rnc set up new rules for the 2016 presidential process. so republican leaders decided to cut down the number of debates,
shorten the primary calendar, and adjust how delegates are allocated. so the new rules were supposed to allow a front-runner to eampt merge faster, so he or she could focus on the democratic competition. but what the rnc did not account for was the rise of a political outsider who could win and potentially win quickly. and most importantly, that outsider named donald trump. it's likely that we will not know who the republican nominee is until late spring. it's possible, though, not likely, we might not know until the convention. more delegates can be won on a proportional basis in 2016 than in any other election cycle. delegates are either bound or unbound. meaning some votes are cemented in a pledge early on, regardless of what the delegates wants to do at the convention. and a new rule binds delegates from early primary caucus states. iowa is bound on iowa night. that never used to happen before. yes, the race is shorter, but with a concentrated intensity that the establishment
candidates haven't been able to penetra penetrate. these new rules give trump room to hold on to key delegates. will the republican party be able to wrestle them away come cleveland? let's bring in kasie hunt, who is on the trail in manchester, new hampshire. and michael steele, msnbc political analyst, but he's also a former rnc chairman and knows these rules, the arcane ones especially. >> yes. >> it's going to be fun to talk about it with you in a minute. but kasie, let me start with you. the dream scenario of all of us political journalists, the contest the convention, et cetera, et cetera, but this is the longer trump is in the race, the more of a reality it becomes, correct? >> i think that's right, chuck. the reality is, the republican party, its elders have no intense of letting donald trump become the nominee. we've had enough private conversations to know. the problem is, they don't have any idea how to do it. and these rules changes in many ways tied their hands.
so while before they may have had behind-the-scenes recourse, way to fix this, they basically have eliminated them of their own volition. and a lot of the heads lines when the changes were made, you were, said, the establishment takes over the nominating process, this is going to prohibit any grassroots conservative, morton blackwell, virginia rnc member who always shows up, he was very upset about all these new rules and the reality is, because these delegates can no longer shift their allegiances, except for based on, you know, how the states vote, the only recourse that they would have is potentially to use the rules committee at the start of the actual convention. they meet the week before to make recommendations and then the whole convention itself would have to adopt new rules. so if they want to fundamentally change that, it's going to push it all the way into judge will. instead of giving them a chance to change it earlier on, chuck. >> michael, i'm going to ask you to grade kasie on how she did
explaining this arcaneness that you guys at the rnc did. but let's explain exactly why this happened. ron paul successfully essentially stole states and delegates at conventions later on in the cycle, when we all were treating mitt romney as the nominee. and this is what they wanted to put an end to. it was all designed at the time to stop ron paul. walk me through it further. >> you nailed it exactly right. the arcaneness of it and all. and the reality of it, this was an effort by the establishment at the time to prevent ron paul from coming into that convention with delegates in his pocket, that he could then use to manipulate the process, to drag it out, or to even, you know, create some type of uprising. that was the fear at the time. and you saw how that played out. they didn't even want him to speak at that convention. they were so afraid of what his message would be and how it would impact the delegates. so they put these rules in place. i can tell you right now, carly
hulledlin and morton blackwell are sitting there telling you, i told you so, because this is the scenario that everyone was afraid would happen. you would lock these delegates in a way that you cannot unbind them. and donald trump right now could potentially walk into the convention with delegates locked to him. they cannot move them. this idea they're going to somehow change the rules. once the rules are locked by the previous convention, you cannot adjust them until the next convention. so they cannot be changed until 2020. so they've got themselves in a little bit of a cycle of a bind here, that is going to be hard for them to extricate themselves, particularly with donald trump gathering steam going into iowa and new hampshire. >> let's quickly explain the primary calendar, kasie. we've got iowa, obviously the first four states everybody knows that's february, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, and nevada. i believe that's their order. and nevada and south carolina
for swapped for the democrats. >> south carolina and nevada. >> right. and then march is split up two ways. a group of states where anybody over ten or 15% can win delegates. and winner take all states starting in the middle of the month. >> right. so this puts a lot of momentum emphasis on the early states, but it allows some of those contests to potentially keep other candidates alive through the early state process, until you get to march 1st and then ultimately march 15th. there was a move in florida, for example, to put that contest off until march 15th. remember, florida used to be much earlier. so the ultimate consequence of the way they collapsed this is going to be that the early states and their momentum actually in some ways could have exactly the opposite effect that the rnc intended. it could pile up onto donald trump if he is able to win in the early states and create some sort of landslide. because the reality is, we don't get to the bigger states where you have more moderate republicans, your tv advertising
matters more, until much later in the process. >> and michael, correct me if i'm wrong, won't this put pressure, if trump is getting his 25 and 30, and that's a winning number, won't this put pressure on march 2nd, for the field to clear for whoever is the number two candidate, so that by march 15th, it's a two-person race? is that what will happen? we'll see pressure on whoever's not in second place, whoever can't stop the one person that's assumed can top trump becomes the candidate by march 15th? >> i think that's potentially what you will see. but the new reality for the party and the convention process, donald trump can win with 20, 25%. so all of this voting will add delegates to somebody's pocket. if i'm sitting in third place with several hundred delegates in my pocket, i've got leverage going into this convention and going throughout the rest of the process, particularly when you
have a winner take all states. so donald trump just needs to get 20% in each ballot. he doesn't need to win 50% plus, just get his 20%, he will amass enough momentum going into this. and with the s.e.c. primary taking place on super tuesday, those seven southern states that have moved up to that date, on the 1st, you're talking about a juggernaut potential, because donald trump could take south carolina and ricochet right into super tuesday in those southern primaries and it pretty much will be over. >> we'll see. i still think it's cruz who will have the big nine on s.e.c. tuesday. >> you never know. >> we'll let the voters decide this. >> if cruz doesn't win in iowa -- i'm sorry. if cruz doesn't win in iowa and bounce into south carolina well, that's the scenario where you do have trump kind of left standing alone. >> that's exactly right. kasie hunt, michael steele, fun to feek out. >> yes, indeed. >> thanks, chuck. up next, defense secretary
ash carter tells congress that isis is not contained. so what does that mean for u.s. strategy? but first the cnbc market wrap. >> the dow sinks by 75 points. the s&p off by 15, the nasdaq also dropping by 75 points. shares of yahoo falling more than 1% today after the company said it would not spin off its stake in alibaba. instead, it will look at other ways to separate it. the company is concerned about the tax implications of that spin-off. and shares of dow chemical and dupont surging today, following reports saying the two chemical companies are expected to announce a merger. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. who wants to try? before earning enough cash back from bank of america to stir up the holidays,
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carter testified on the administration's isis strategy. carter told the committee flat out that the u.s. has not contained isis. he added that the u.s. is ready to provide more personnel and equipment to the iraqi army and to fight the terror group there, but he was pressed by john mccain on the overall strategy and here's what he said. >> on the 1st of december, before the house armed services committee, congressman forbes asked general dunford, quote, have we currently contained isil? general dunford, we have not contained isil. mr. secretary, do you agree with general dunford? >> i agree with what general dunford said, yes. >> so if we've not contained isil, how are we to now believe that we are succeeding against isil? >> i think that we are building momentum against isil.
>> joining me now is jim miklaszewski. mick, boy, not contained, building momentum. i feel like i went into the delorean and went back six months. that was the rhetoric, six, eight, nine months ago. what's going on? >> well, absolutely. if you talk to senior military officials and some of those involved in the actual operations, they will tell you that in some cases, most cases actually, on the ground in iraq and syria, they feel like isis has been tactically contained, in that they have launched no new offensives for at least four or five months. but strategically contained, that's a different animal altogether. and everyone, including general dunford and now secretary of defense carter, will tell you the u.s. and its coalition forces are a long way from that. >> why did the defense secretary do this today? it feels as almost -- was there a point of doing this? was it the white house knowing this was coming?
they usually do, but it comes across a little bit as a rebuke. >> you know, i can't speak for what the president was thinking when he said they were contained, but i can tell you again that the military always talked about tactically contained, not strategically contained, because that involves defeating isis, and that's the issue here. they're a long way from ever defeating isis. but it was interesting. there was one admission from secretary carter today which a lot of people missed. when he was asked about progress against isis and their ability to take on isis with the new plan that they have to put special operations forces in iraq and syria, to conduct some small operations, and he was pressed on that, do they have any other plans in the works. and he acknowledged, look, if i had other plans to do this, i'd be doing it. so it appears that there
rucksack at this point is pretty empty. >> sure is. they'd like to figure out how to do more, they don't know how to do it. ouch. thank you, sir. we're also getting new developments in the san bernardino terrorist attack investigation. family members of the shooting victims took part in a procession near the site of the shooting. it's been one week after the deadly attack, and the memorial comes as the fbi director james comey revealed new details, saying the attackers, farook and malik, were on their own paths to radicalization long before the two of them had met. >> san bernardino involved two killers who were radicalized for quite a long time before their attack. they were actually radicalized before they started courting or dating each other online, as early as the end of 2013. they were talking to each other about jihad and martyrdom before they became engaged. >> joining me now is nbc news
pete williams. 2013. i believe we weren't using the acronym isil, isis, all that often by then. >> first of all, they were not initially turned, if you will, to a radical path by isis. it didn't start to send worldwide propaganda for another six or seven months after that, to the middle of last year. so that's one thing. secondly, it adds to the picture of whether she came here and radicalized him. clearly not. they were each on separate paths toward that before they even met. and we also learned that the fbi has been told that a year before in 2012, that farook talked with another person, enrique marquez, his friend and former neighbor, about possibly doing an attack somewhere in the l.a. area, but got cold feet. so that sets that whole question of whether she radicalized him aside. secondly, it raises the question of, if she was already radicalized, when she applied
for a visa to come here, why didn't the u.s. know that? comey said the fbi doesn't do that vetting, but he said, how would the government know this, in a sense? there's a separate question about what kind of interviews were done with her and her family. but in terms of the intelligence, he said they don't just listen in on every american's conversation with people overseas or online communications and that farook was not on any terrorism database. so they were not listening to him. he was not on the fbi's radar. >> let me back you up to enrique marquez. he knew in 2012 that farook wanted to do something. i assume now he's more than just a person of interest to the fbi. >> they haven't used that term yet. they say they're looking at him very closely. he's not been arrested, not been named a suspect. we'll see how this shakes out. these are early claims that have been made to the fbi in interviews. they'll have to see how much validity to attach to those --
>> is he -- [ all speak at once ] >> he's not been arrested. it would seem he would face at least some criminal jeopardy because of the fact that when he bought these rifles, they were given to farook. that by itself could be a straw purchase or a violation of california law, but it could be more serious. >> pete williams, thank you, sir. right now hillary clinton's fighting for us town hall as she's calling it is kicking off in urbandale, iowa, outside of des moines. we'll have the latest from the trail on the democratic side coming up. amerivest selects the funds and manages your portfolio. is it run by robots? no no, you can talk to a person anytime. 'cause i don't trust robots. right...well, if the portfolio you're invested in doesn't perform well for two consecutive quarters, amerivest will reimburse your advisory fees for those quarters. i wasn't born yesterday. well, actually it looks like you were born yesterday. happy belated birthday. thanks. for all the confidence you need td ameritrade. you got this.
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what's in your wallet? my best, brett muss berger, you're looking live at a hillary clinton candidate there holding a town hall in iowa. he's been stumping in the hawkeye state all day, where she again blasted donald trump for his proposal to ban muslims from entering the united states. >> when he says he wants to stop all muslims from entering the united states, that runs counter to what i and others who have actually been in the situation room, making hard choices, know we have to do. >> clinton says trump's words are an embarrassment and a national security issue. kristin welker, following the clinton campaign as she does frequently. she's in iowa today. kristin, the clinton campaign, ever since the bernie sanders
boom died off a little bit, they've struggled to get into the news cycle. >> reporter: they've really struggled to get into the news cycle, chuck. and one of the ways she's trying to get back into the news cycle is to use very strong language to condemn donald trump. she's benefitting from this controversy because it's giving her another opportunity to lump all the republicans in with trump. this is a strategy we've seen her use in the past. it goes all the way back to the controversial comments that he first made about mexicans. she was out today with a new ad, calling the entire gop field extreme. and she had this to say at an event in waterloo earlier today. take a listen. >> some of the other republican candidates have finally said that these latest comments have gone too far, but the truth is, a lot of them have said some pretty extreme things too. their language may be more veiled, less, you know,
dramatic, but their ideas aren't so different. >> reporter: now, in a general election match-up, secretary clinton really tops trump by our latest poll, by about ten points. but an interesting thing is happening in the primary, chuck. just moments ago, we got a poll from new hampshire. talking about bernie sanders. he's back up in new hampshire by ten points. 50-40, so it's a race again in new hampshire, which makes iowa all that much more important. she's made a number of stops here and undoubtedly will make a number more before the all-important caucus in february. >> she can explain away one, she can explain away new hampshire. much tougher to explain away iowa and new hampshire. kristin welker, nice work, thank you, ma'am. let me bring in tonight's panel. ileana johnson, nicholas kum fa sory and both, let me start with you. you know, bernie sanders seemed like a candidate in some ways that was running out of gas
nationally, but he still has a following and he still might win new hampshire. >> yeah, he's got a following for sure. especially new hampshire. i would argue, chuck, that he's lost a little bit of steam in the whole discussion of national security, the rise of isis, the bomb, that we saw in paris and the san bernardino shootings. this is really not his lane. he took reporters out yesterday to baltimore to talk about crime and criminal justice and racial justice and all the reporters wanted to do was talk about isis, and his staff said they couldn't even bring up that question. so he's very thin on aspects of his resume that are pretty important right now in places where former secretary of state hillary clinton really shines. >> you know, ileana, what are republicans saying? they kind of enjoyed the idea that bernie sanders might tie her up and give her problems in the primary. and in some ways, want craziness of the republican primary at times, thanks to trump, has just totally collapsed any of that.
>> i was going to say, chuck, being out of the news, i don't think has been a terrible thing for hillary clinton. because when she was in the news, it was all about her e-mails, and the scanned always, so i think that's been probably a welcome respite from the point of her campaign. it's been quite fort that the drama on the republican side has overtaken this. i think it's interesting she appealed to her experience in her remarks in iowa, because that hasn't been a terribly persuasive argument, either in 2008 when obama was running, oar this year as we saw jeb bush really struggle. it could be a liability for her in a general election, so it will be interesting those how that plays out. nicholas, if i were in the clinton campaign i would be concerned about, the lack of interest, the lack of attention, could lead to a lack of turnedout. if casual democratic voters don't show up, that could mean an emore progressive electoral.
that's not good news for hillary clinton. >> no, it's not, chuck. look. you think the trump phenomenon is distorting the entire shape of both primaries, right? it's just messing everything up. you have hillary clinton who every so often puts out an earnest paper, and no one pays any attention, because it's all trump trump trump. the race can't take its natural shape. i think that's a openings for bernie sanders. >> the other thing i want to remind people is they can get really erratic based on independents and how many you let into your sample, how many of them will vacillate between which primaries. it's something to keep a cautious eye on. i'm going to take a quick break. when we come back, marco rubio, illeana you had the most interesting piece of the day. we'll talk about it after the break, how the senator's sparse ground game in some of the early primarily states, will it impact
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state party chair, than i do about marco rubio, and it shouldn't be that way. i've been hearing about these whispers for a while. where does marco rubio want to win? nobody thinking he wants to win. the conventional wid dom is you need boots on the ground to get people out to the caucuses, which require a lot of time. the rubio people say, look at jeb bush, great ground game, and whether has that gotten them? what i think is interesting is this is part of a conscious strategy on the part of the rubio campaign that says elections have become more nationalized and momentum propelled by debate performances, television adds can carry a candidate for a victory, so this is really going to be a test of that theory. we'll see how it plays out. >> you know, beth, donors and establishment people are going
to want somebody who wants to win. >> yeah. the rubio campaign strategy has been very puzzling. sure, it's conventional wisdom that you have to have boots on the ground in iowa. it's actually a fact you have to have boots on the ground in iowa. pesky conventional wisdom. >> the candidates with the best ground game always win. now he could -- senator rubio could defy that. this whole election that is sort of thrown conventional wisdom on its head. maybe rubio will benefit have that. it's hard to see how he goes forward without a strategy to win in the first four early states, alls mentioned. >> here's where i'm head scratching here. if rubio wins iowa, i could make the case he'll seal this thing early. he is the one candidate if he somehow pulled off iowa, right? upsetting trump and cruz? done. you can't see establishment falling in line, base failing in line. he could seal it quickly. why let others get momentum?
>> well, one possible answer is, you know, money. the charitial answer of where is he? he's not in new hampshire, not in iowa, he's not a hearings, not at votes, so where is he? he's in church on sunday, probably raising a bunch of money s one hans is this is lipstick on a pig. this is putting on the best face on, and can't pay for the big operations. but look, the big operation has not done well for other candidates. i would say, however, ted cruz, i feel like ted cruz is being very smart, built out everywhere, building slowly the same way rubio is, but he has the people on the ground to capitalize on those ways of attention and momentum. >> i get the sense the rubio people are not wanting to stick their ed up too far, annual only doing that when they're truly strong enough to withstand a whack. >> they are very wary of peaking
too early. this is a bubble for ted cruz. mike huckabee had very little ground game in 2008, so it's not necessarily a fact that you need it, but certainly huckabee was out there shaking an to ton of hands. that's exactly what people in iowa are expressing capaci exasperation. >> yeah, and there's not much going on in new hampshire either, chuck. whatever he is doing is either absolutely brilliant or crazy. i guess we'll find that out soon. >> nick, on the money front, it's a trickle of establishment -- not an avalanche. >> yeah, we have never really seen the evidence of the big surge. what they have said is that october was great for them and so is november? the fund-raising season basically ends now?
so we'll see. they were saying they were on budget, that they had all the money they need to have to fund their media and ground game through the march primaries, i believe. so we will see, as ilyaena says. >> all good. thank you, we'll be back tomorrow, more "mtp daily" i promise. craig melvin picks up our coverage. >> we're all over breaking news. 6:00 p.m. ear in the east, it is 5:00 in chicago, where those protests are ongoing, as night falls there. you can still see people flooding the streets of the windy city, a crowd that's been outside for hours. they want mayor emanuel to step down, the demand comes after he publicly apologized for the police shooting of a teena