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tv   Morning Joe  MSNBC  January 4, 2016 3:00am-6:01am PST

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and it hasn't been a pretty picture for her or for bill because i'm the only one willing to talk about his problems. >> you can't make america great again if you insult and demean people of america. >> let's look at people in iowa and new hampshire and south carolina. >> what if congress did something, anything to protect our kids from gun violence? i direct my team to look at any actions we can take. >> as president of a child,
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would every kid get what they want because america has ejected his agenda. >> if you're having all sorts of difficulty and your wife says she's leaving you, she doesn't love you anymore, i don't care. get out and vote. get out and vote. >> and good morning. it is monday, january 4th. happy new year. >> 2016. >> willie, did you ring it in nicely in. >> we've been talking in hypotheticals about 2016. 10 months till election day. >> it is a mad dash. this month of january. >> less than a month to iowa. >> less than a month to iowa. >> this was actually a time when four years ago, eight years ago we were out at the iowa caucus.
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here we have a month. >> actually. this has been the time in the last two cycles we were leaving iowa knowing who the winner was on our way to new hampshire. >> how unbelievable, january, you can't, there is politically. >> here we go. >> you can't be hydro boll rancic. this month is going to be like no month in resent american history. set the month up for us, john. >> we're back on the old schedule. years before things would get going at the end of january, early february. you have one month now where as the the holiday season, everybody turned away from politics in the last couple of weeks. all these candidates are going to be occupied. >> if there were a final four bracket, two on the republican side, what are we looking at right now for the final four month out. >> i like to think about a final four in the republican side
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right now. christie, trump and cruz and christie and marco rubio right now in the establishment bracket, much stronger than the two establishment candidates at this moment. >> mark, on the establishment side, they are a pack of p piranas. whether you're talking about bush going after cruz, kasich, donald trump could not have set this up more perfectly. cruz is getting in the fray because huckabee and others are going to sab tanl cru they're sabotaging each other to
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run with trump. >> there's two things people have underestimated. biography matters a lot and his emotion. his new add where he deals with immigration and his threat is emotional and what got him there and it's where he started. that's the thing in politics. candidates are still searching for closing arguments. trump had these and it's where they're open. >> we have you guys here, managing editors of bloomberg politics. you have something going on today, right. or just morning joe, right. >> i'm done. after this, i'm going back to bed. >> 12 hours from now. >> yes, your bloomberg show will be debuting on msnbc tonight at 6:00 p.m. my gosh. what an edition to this network. we're excited. >> little kids going to sunday school on that sunday morning in
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february 1964 and the beetles were playing. >> if you haven't seen it in all do respect, it's a good show. as they know from my excess tiv e-mails. >> i wonder if they'll have us on? >> hard to book but we're trying. >> also with us eugene robinson. >> he's always special. >> happy new year. we have a lot to get to. we first want to start with some foreign policies. >> tensions running high in the middle east after saudi rab i can't announced thai cutting diplomatic ties with iran. they're giving dip lomats 48 hours. this is a significant development obviously and events
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poor a lot of gasoline on the fire that's destroying the region. he'll join us this hour. this is a huge story. >> yeah, we begin with a race for the white house. there's just four weeks left until the iowa caucuses and donald trump has just unveiled his first television add. a 30 second spot in iowa and new hampshire which we bring you for the first time now. >> i'm donald trump and i approve this message. >> the poll situations can pretend it's something else but donald trump calls it radical islamic terrorism. that's why he's calling for a temporary shut down of the muslims entering the united states until he sees what's going on. he'll stop illegal immigration by building a wall in our southern boarder mexico will pay for. >> we will make america great again. >> well, nothing like ringing those bells.
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>> whistles. >> one after another after another after another. >> and you look at a remarkable new york times square yesterday. look at the remarkable make up of people who support donald trump.
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skro voters are going to go he gets it. >> he started talking about building the wall in mexico. isis brought the question of muslim terrorism to the forefront. those two are the, there's a nexus between those issues. they're both immigration issues and both security issues. they're both issues where he's criticized roundly. >> it's stunning that a 30
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second add talks about banning 1.4 million members of a religion from entering this country temporarily. >> i hate it and i stopped questioning its effectiveness. >> there's both issues he's been roundly criticized and he's flying straight in the face of it. >> doesn't care and doesn't back do down at all. his numbers keep going up. look at the number of the rallies. i saw people, i don't know where the fire marshall was but i saw people crammed into the aisles. they said they had 13,000 people there. if they had less than 20,000 people there, they were everywhere. marco rubio goes to a rally and there will be 150-200, a thousand i guess in one rally. that was a huge story. donald trump everywhere he goes he gets these.
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he and bernie sanders. >> we'll get to bernie sanders in a second. this giant rally in mississippi, they say 13,000 fans. trump spoke there and spent minutes degrading the camera man who provides a steady feed not showing the audience. >> these cameras back here will never show this crowd. they're never going to show it. turn it. turn it. turn it. spin it. spin the camera. spin the camera. i would fire his ass right now, if i could. true. >> you know, really, part of it
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is the crusty the clown. it's funny because it's true. or the sympatimpson deal. the only way you can is hear how loud the crowd is screaming. along with bernie sanders, if jeb bush or marco rubio or john kasich or anybody could get more than a hundred people at a rally they were scanning all the time. >> these are the crowds they get every time he goes to any state he visits. massive crowds have tapped into something so interesting since we've been together a last week and a half. they may not support donald trump but they get why he's doing so well and in some ways they admire what he's been able to do which is find the vein of the american republican. worried about their jobs and
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isis and come out and say things ek police italy and culturally he's sticking up for people. >> gene, a lot of people say he's not going to do that and this but he gets us. and you read the new york times article and it's about like he gets us, nobody else in washington gets us. westerny sanders on the other side, i'm going to say his name again. >> it's amazing. >> record all of small fundra e fundraising. people aren't maxing out. >> look. bernie sanders has done a lot better than most people thought he would and look at the fundraising totals of small donors. he practically matched hillary clinton. on the other hand he has some stuff to prove. he still has to prove he can
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appeal to african americans and la teen knows. other parts of the democratic coalition. back to trump for a minute, clearly he has lrunl the most unorthodoxly brilliant campaign we've seen in a long time to get where he is now. the idea that any aspect of the trump campaign is under covered which he plays up in every rally, the idea that he's not getting enough media coverage showing what a phenomena he is is just crazy. it's just absurd. that's working for him too. >> the challenge facing trump over the next few weeks is his votes. they're registered as democrats concentrated in the south and appalachian north. his strongest backers are less
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affluent and less educated and less going to turn out the vote. he's relying on the southern states to catapult him to the nomination. >> you got to get out and vote. if you're having problems, if you're not feeling well, if you're having all sorts of difficulty, if your wife says she's leaving you and doesn't love you anymore, i don't care. get out and vote. right. you got to get out and vote. >> mark, we've been saying it for months. fwho anyone who thinks they're going to turn south and catch trump there is out of their mind. >> again. where most of my relatives are, where i grew up, the deep south doesn't get stronger for trump. anywhere in america, the deep south. and yankees who look at ted cruz and say he's a southerner.
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they don't know. look at texas. look at another group of people. the deep south is trump territory. if he wins iowa he's off to the race. >> he's strong in the southern states. he's eventually going to have ties there. right now, he's the only one in the race to make a plausible stop to trump and that's ted cruz. >> ted is raising a lot of money and unlike other people he's got grass roots support. willie, very interesting. two of trump's strongest states, mississippi and new york state. something like 10 of trump's 15 strongest counties. new york state. >> right. so that's why when you hear new york media or washington he's
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got big numbers. he turns down from new hampshire, south carolina could begin a southern set of dominos for donald trump. >> what's fascinating is this is the opposite of ross. the further west he went the stronger his support got. here with trump the further west you go the weaker his support goes. >> he's not a regional candidate. >> by the way, that said he's ahead in nevada. >> what's kind of crazy, they are silent. ted cruz, the one with the
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pockets who would be a benefit going after trump, he heads into the new year without anyone trying to slow him down. >> so you know after like 10, i put my phone down for a long time. i opened up twitter just before a went back to work and a dragon literally like a huge lizard of hatred burst out of my phone. >> why's that? >> it was hillary clinton supporters very upset we had called out hillary. now trump is being used in a video. >> that's was a week later. the sub head should have been see, hillary was right. >> we'll have that coming up and also coming up, bernie sanders does something no acandidate ha
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done before. it's unprecedented and amazing. a erupts into protest after the execution of a prominent clerk has saudi arabia setting fire to their embassy. richard haas is here with that. first bill karens with a check on the forecast. >> the cold is returning in a big way this week. the cold by far in the great lakes and the east. it's a quick warm up after this. our usually warm winter continues despite how you'll feel this morning. a little bit of snow to deal with. there is heavy snow for you along the western shores of michigan right along the shores of lake michigan. berling ton, vermont the coldest spot on the map. zero in buffalo and down to 22 in new york city. we're finally starting to feel
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like winter out there. it's quick though. we are returning to warmth. tuesday morning will be the coldest and tuesday afternoon we're back to 40s. we've been watching the mississippi flooding all week long and it continues to be bad but he's it's not record breaking as it travels down to louisiana in the week ahead. we leaf you a shot of new york city. even bundle up yourself and kids. it's hat and glove weather for the first time for many. your watching morning joe. we'll be right back. directv. hey, jebediah, how's it going? working the land. hoping for a fertile spring. all right. so we have to live with lower customer satisfaction? i'm afraid so. now go churn us some butter, boy,
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i don't think we've forgotten anything.
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it is? >> chris christie, the governor of unanimously nj and the come back kid of 2015. i. >> use to get a lot of nasty e-mails about marco rubio. >> we talked earlier about the chaos, i think all the other establishment candidates see christie as the one that has some traction. he's not really dominating the bract. if you look at jeb push and marco rubio not moing and christ christie gradually inching up
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week by week he's suddenly becoming the thing. >> doing town hall meetings when everybody was ridiculing him months ago. if you look back to what we saw the first time we went to new hampshire and iowa in 2004, everything we're saying, i would not be surprised if john kasich won new hampshire, marco rubio won new hampshire, ted cruz, jeb bush. go down the entire list of all of these people. a month is a lifetime. nobody would have predicted even a day before new hampshire 2008, nobody would have predicted hillary clinton would have won the new hampshire primary.
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24 hours before. anything can happen. that's what's so crazy about new hampshire right now. >> pick your year. the polls at this point a month out from election day shift dra mat ekly every year. chris christie has done well. he said i put my head down and work. every town hall and you can contrast that to marco rubio. he's not made anywhere as close. all this again with the caveat donald trump has a big lead in new hampshire. >> we're talking second place to now. >> i saw christie when he was down and he never quit and he's the best brawler in the race. the reason mitt romney almost put him on the ticket in 2012. he said this is the best brawler in american politics. in a big field, a brawler like
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that, the reason people are going after him is because his flaws haven't been discussed lately. i seen him on the road and he's constantly on the phone. he could be the campaign manager for the presidential campaign. he knows what he's doing. >> again, mika, it's important. we're talking about the establishment bracket to take on right now, the guy that packs. >> kp auditoriums. >> exactly. >> i think this brawler is important. they're looking for someone who can take on trump eventually. >> and hillary. >> what could be the trump slayer? >> christie looks more like that. >> campaigns beginning to release fundraising totals. the money raised on the democratic side is looking like si close win. bernie sanders campaign reported raising more than $33 million in
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the final three months of the year just 4 million short of hillary clinton's haul over the same period. this is fascinating. sanders overall fundraising total for 2015 was $73 million. he'll head into the new year with cash on hand. the sanders campaign said it was 2.5 million do nations over the past year broke the record and set four years ago every small kron try bugss made up the vast majority of all the money sanders raised. the average donation over the past three months was about $27. >> let's stop right there. gene robinson, unprecedented what bernie sanders is doing. the grass roots level of support bernie sanders is getting. the young people he's getting and the fact that if they want to pay unlike a lot of hillarys donors that are maxed out, if they want to pay bernie sanders
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another $27 next week and another 27 the next week, they can. the only difference between bernie sanders and donald trump is bernie has a lot of others on his side. >> possibly because he has the support, the irreducible number of support. if you told me 12 months ago bernie sanders was going to raise $73 million i would say your crazy. >> what about the average contribution, $27 million. god bless america. >> that says a lot about how many people he's reached and how many people are with him. you know, look, he has a good shot in iowa and new hampshire
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and we know that hillary clinton can go into the last week in iowa with everybody thinking she's going to win and she could lose. this has happened before. so the big question again as i said earlier for bernie is where do you go from there? you may run into a genuine firewall in south carolina. >> people can still add more. here's sanders talking about his campaigns and fundraising yesterday. >> i think people are tired of establishment politics and establishment ek m conomics. one of you with the manifestation of that is the amount of fundraising we've been doing. we have two and a half million small individual contribution style campaigns. that's more than any campaign in the history of the united states of america and i think that speaks to the enthusiasm and support we're getting at the grass roots. >> these are people that love
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him and not looking for anything. they just want to get the money. like chris kichristie, he's bee out there working it every day. >> you look at the guy that's on this week and say i want to run for senator i would go yeah, that's really nice. why don't you try congress and you look at donald trump and donald trump's crazy campaign. this is the year, it's such an obvious statement, talk about the year of the anti poll situation. that's the reason marco, jeb and all the ones prepackaged are not doing so well. bernie sanders and donald trump with the anti politicians of all time and doing great. >> and they're railing against the way business has been done
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in the country the last seven years. donald trump and bernie sanders, what bernie sanders has is real authenticity. >> yes, he does. >> he's been saying the things in 2016 thousand he was saying in the 1960s. >> just like trump. >> by the way, everybody, saying what does trump really believe? is he democrat or republican? you can go back and see him saying the same thing 1988. we're being suckered. the japanese are suckering us. >> he's worried about the middle class. >> he's saying the same thing. >> one thing about bernie sanders, he's coming to new york tomorrow and a day out in the city. not doing any fundraising here. there's never been a presidential candidate in
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history that would show up in new york city a month before. $28 million of cash on hand is an important number. he's going to have enough money to advertise in iowa and new hampshire. he could be on the air matching her dollar for dollar for this last month and that puts him, that means he can, again, he may or may not win those two states but it's not because she beats him in the money race. >> if marco rubio is about the future, then why do so many my lineals oppose his policy. why would he back legislation that includes certain regulations. significant dwoms with iran and saudi arabia. could they wreck john kerry's effort to find a solution to the syria crisis. and i didn't get here alone.
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tensions are running high in the middle east after saudi arabia's executed a clergymen over the weekend. this follows a similar move by saudi arabia who first cut ties with iran last night the saudis have iran's ambassador 48 hours to leave the country.
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this weekend's on rest again after saudi arabia held its largest mass sunday. his execution sparked a wave of protests. these pictures show the embassy set on fire yesterday after officials say protesters stormed the building. up to 40 orthopediars were made. they said the attack was by no means justified. in teron, crowds received burning u.s. flags to protest america's links to saudi leaders. they said saudi rab i can't will face divine vin jens for executing him. we are particularly concerned the execution risks exacerbating
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tensions at a time when they urgently need to be reduced. joining us now we have the president of the counsel on foreign relations, richard haas. in washington columnist and editor for the washington post david ignatious. >> richard haas, we have seen the soonny states sit back quietly as in some cases as iran's power continued to grow across the middle east. at some point without the united states in the middle as sort of the official, this was due to happen, wasn't it. >> it's partially a signal. >> i'm not talking about the executions. i'm saying at some point the soonny countries were going to rise up and fight back. >> this is probably the worst possible way to fight back. i think this is as much aimed at isis. it's a way of insulating.
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they should challenge from those that are not soonnies. this is a way of going after them and this is a statement domestically and regional about how pure the saudis are. it's also pushed back against iran. >> and by the way, he's talking not so much about the executions as much as cutting off relations with iran. >> this is a fault line. it gets more and more denounced. it's a persian saudi one. there's also the soonny. the two are different but con flated. what you're going to see is this is now going to effect every single dispute in the region from syria to yemen to internal stability. just when you thought the middle east couldn't get worse it's going to enter a new chapter. >> david, jump in. >> joe, i agree with richard.
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i said to your colleagues last night, i think this is like pouring oil on a raging fire of secretaryism. the white house was genuinely urgently worried about keeping this from wrecking the diplomacy from the united states they're pursuing. they managed to get them around the table twice at the end of last year to talk about arrangements that would gowoulde a cease fire possible. that's going to be all but impossible. there's a meeting scheduled for the end of this month. that's really going to be a struggle. i'll know one more fact, i was looking at my device. this morning in london the price of crude oil is up 3% after a period of which it only went down and fell 35% last year.
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it tells you that people are taking this one seriously. >> but david, when the state department is getting involved in whether it's syria or across the middle east, i've certainly heard this. i know you heard it. i know richard heard it. bitterness from soonny leaders talking about how they feel a n abandoned by the united states and by the way, this didn't start with an iran nuclear deal. this started with before then. they felt like we as a country and they've said it time and again have abandoned them, that they can't trust obama and follow the united states. at what point do more soonny countries start acting wrecklessly because they don't think the united states is there anymore playing honest broker between the soonnies. >> we'll have to see just that exact question.
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i think your right that the saudis do not trust the united states or the leadership and remain deeply suspicious. the whole deal was to try to reassure the saudis and other countries we stood with them. we were going to help them deal with an aggressive iran. they don't believe that. there's a war in yemenu.s. officials are guarding as a disaster. that's another part of this whole story. somehow, the u.s. is going to have to reassure the soonnies walked us back, tried to keep the diplomacy from exploding but as you say, unless the soonnies trust the united states more, that won't work. >> bill neely joining us in london. this is of courjust the next ph the on going battle between the two countries. most of the fights have been proxy fights. what's the next move on this
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very difficult complicated chess board? >> the next move was meant to be these peace talks on syria. this is to say the least complicates this. this is despite the fact saudi diplomats left and either it's not impossible they could get iran later in the month but it makes it difficult and picking up on what everyone says rkts i think the state department is worry about this. this was the biggest mass execution in 40 years. he was no ordinary cleric. he may not be a hustled name in the united states but he was well known across the muslim world especially among muslims he was known as a charismatic cleric who spoke especially to the 20% of the saudi population
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that is shia. i think there will be a complications within saudi arabia as well. saudi arabia was sending a message not just to iran but also to its own population once again that it simply will not tolerate descent. in iran there's desperate repercussions as well. they have condemned the attack on the embassy but the hard liners will probably be delighted the diplomatic relations have broken down with saudi arabia. it's not just a fisher, fault line opening up in the muslim world between soonny and shia. there are implications within iran and saudi arabia as well. >> you guys help me out. what was the town they flattened back in the 80s? was it the 80s? >> yeah. i remember reading it, a story
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of hussein talking to the king of saudi arabia asking what he was doing about the religious extremist. >> he basically talked about throwing him in jail and he said you fool. he pointed actually to what his father had done and said you must crush them. you must crush them unmercifully. i just wonder fw the saudis now fe fearing what's happening across the middle page are going to fear them well. >> they are definitely concerned about the extremism across the region. if you ask the iranians, they have been feeling the other groups they've been fund ling money to. i think what's difficult in a situation like this depends on
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where you sit. if you're sitting in the capitols and looking in iran, you're saying iran is destabilizing their region trying to overthrow governments and trying to back rebels in other parts. if you're sitting in iran, you're looking in saudi arabia saying they're funneling money to some of these extremist groups and carrying out this type of punishment that's going to make the situation worse. it's one of those things. if you're sitting in washington d.c. looking at the future, you're saying to solve so many outgoing problem in yemen and syria, you need the iranians. they're backing so many of these road blocks, if you will. where as saudi arabia and gulf countries, they can possibly part of the solution but they're not necessarily key or road to the solution. >> bill neely, jump in. >> yeah. i mean, it's going to be a very
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difficult situation as i think richard said. just when you thought the mideast couldn't get more complicated and worse in 2016, it just has. we've known that syria and yemen are proxy wars between saudi arabia and iran. i don't think the two countries are heading toward any kind of confli conflict. they'll both step book from the brink. we have to expect the unexpected. when iran's supreme leader vows revenge, even if it's divine reven revenge, i think the whole region has to watch out. >> what's next for the region now? >> one thing your viewers should think about, in each of the key countries there's an unstable domestic political situation which plays instability. in saudi arabia you have a new king. the decisive player is young 30-year hfld son, the deadly
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weapon city crown prince who has been the bribing force. he is a new and unpredictable force. the u.s. doesn't quiet understand him. in iran we're seeing the hard liners are really at war with the president. they're doing everything they can to squeeze his freedom of movement. there's two factors here pushing the situation more towards confrontation and danger. >> all right. david, thank you. bill neely, thank you very much. richard, stay with us if you can. we'll be right back.
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welcome back to morning joe. richard, you want today follow up. you think one of the stories of the year, saudi arabia vulnerable. >> i think they're a classic example of over stretched. they've divided the royal family. all sorts of issues at the top. oils at $35 a bail.
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now the split with iran. i think they're in deep trouble. >> as a rule you arable how? >> i think potentially to domestic unrest. >> willie, back home a little battle between the governor and the mayor. tryi >> he's being pushed back by mayor deblash owe.
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>> why wouldn't he want people off the streets in homeless shelters so they wouldn't freeze? >> i think because no money is being given to new york city to expand the shelters and improve. i agree with you. it's common sense. get them some place. >> we've seen the amount of homeless as we all talked about this off the air. we've seen the amount of homelessness explode across the city. >> yeah, but there's, it's exploded to the point in the number of children is incredible. >> why? why isn't there the funding then or why, i understand, i think mayor actually fired the person in charge. >> yeah, they're going for a huge. >> the city hasn't been crimed, it's homelessness. that's what the statistics show. >> why is that? >> they're not as willing to take people off the street forcibl forcibly. >> why is that? >> there's values about leaving
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people alone. >> you have people that may have a lot of different challenges and they're delivering on the steps. i don't understand. how is that compassion to let people freeze to death outside in new york city. how does that prove your a liberal? >> they don't want to go in the shelters, for the record. >> they don't want to be inside. >>. >> a lot with mental health issues, makes it hard. >> if they don't want to be taken care of, that's something the first lady of new york city is fighting. >> coming up, we have katy newman and she says this is the most confounding political cycle
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coming up at the top of the hour, donald trump's first television add of the political season. we'll talk to robert. he went up to trump tower after the add was cut for an exclusive first look. plus the republican front runner stays on offense against hillary clinton as bill clinton prepares to hit the trail in new hampshire.
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what impact will the former president have on the 2016 race? keep it here on morning joe. working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app in the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of the other competitors do in desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivative pricing model, honey? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com
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you got to get out and vote. i say this all the time. if you're having problems, not feeling well, having all sorts of difficulty, if your wife says she's leaving you and doesn't love you anymore, i don't care. get out and vote. right. you got to get out and vote. >> that's an interesting way to get people to vote. >> if your wife is leaving you, still vote. >> what? >> that's one way to cope.
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>> i was thinking about this this weekend. nate sylvia was the super star four years ago and he had a spread sheet and took it and said something like 84.6, right. and so we all said you can't really do that because there's always a ghost in a machine. politics is more art. you can't just reduce it to numbers, right. they said we were anti christ for doing that, right. four years later, he's going to have a win. something's going to happen between now and then. we don't know what it is but suddenly, so i guess this is my question. i was just saying if data was god four years ago and you could coldly and calculatedly look at
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data and that would tell you who was going to win within a point 1111 of a hundredths, why has that changed this year? if we used all of nate silver's technology, donald trump. >> if you look at the fwhubs, he's not a regional candidate. >> you understand what i'm saying though. he went by the numbers. take nate silver's methodology four years ago and put donald
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trump's numbers into his spread sheets and come up with that percentage and see what that is and then ask the new york times do they still say marco rubio rubio and ted cruz and my dog has a better chance of winning the nomination. the republican establishment to answer the question. why do rules that applied four years ago apply now? it was always the case in 2012. it was a conflict being with the new york times and people who wanted to believe it was all okay. if nate silver's numbers had
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been saying all along romney was going to win they would have hated him then. there was a conflict in 2012 it was mostly about putting the polls in a pot. now it's the other metrics. >> that is what's so money about four years ago. i'm not knocking nate. we had him on after efs joking with him. it's going to be one on one. no. it was zeros and ones. he was at the telephone booth,
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right. the most resent and apologizing has been updated since. nate sylvia says his chances are somewhere between 0-20% to get the nomination. maybe that's changed since then. >> are you serious? >> yes. >> based on what data? >> based on the fact there's so many undecided voters in iowa in part and based on the fact you can't rely on polls at this point. >> he was six months before not going to barack obama as a 98.4372% chance of we aring a blue tie. >> if you look at trump's numbers and percentage on it on the sense of his stret formula
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he would be a high number. >> using the logic and formula and calculation, this is a sham. it's a high pock zamora si and people making fools of themselves by applying one standard when they wanted one candidate. and you're exactly right. they wanted barack obama to win. i saw somebody saying they reclick 20 times a day to tell themselves everything is going to be okay. >> all the supporters are nervous throughout the year. it turns out all the polling is wrong. >> it's also objectivity.
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they're kind of like smiling and uncomfortably and almost smawhi they can't take him seriously. they can't say there's a lot of people to say this would be a dangerous statement. if you look at the crowd behind us, this is exactly what they want to hear. they can't say that without conviction. it's like their skin is crawling. >> just to be clear. >> yeah. >> i agree with nate silver this year more than i did four years ago. he was saying it's all zeros and ones and no human emotions or human variables played into it. donald trump could win all 50
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states. >> he's not going to fold. >> they said you could explain this all in spread sheet now or for every number. >> all right. they have this thing happening today. it's at 6:00 p.m. eastern on msnbc. with all do respect, i'm so excited about the evening on msnbc. i'm going to watch politics all night long starting at 6:00. with chuck. oh my god, chuck, hi. and then hard ball.
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>>. >> i'm like donnie. >> you're good for your word. >> chuck, with all do respect, hard ball. skbr also, still with us we have the president of foreign relations and joining the conversation political reporter for the washington post and msnbc political analyst robert costa. donald trump has unveiled his first television add this morning which he's spending $2 million on in iowa and new hampshire. >> i'm donald trump and i approve this message.
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>> the politicians can pretend itself something else but donald trump calls it radical islamic terrorism. that's why he's calling for a temporary shut down of muslims entering the united states until he can figure out what's going on. he'll take isis' oil and stop illegal immigration by building a wall that mexico will pay for. >> we will make america great again. >> bob. >> he was invited to trump tower to watch it. >> he said do this but he's going to be wasting his money. he says he feels guilty because he hasn't spent any money. so bob, you were invited up to trump tower to review the add
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and talk to the candidate aid and abet. what have you learned? >> i learned he had a few ideas at the start and thinking perhaps a graphical spot and then he concluded his first add closing before iowa. he really wanted to weld the two key issues and pack them into a spot that was maybe dark but packed a punch. >> that was his opening statement. >> it was a theme of political
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correctness. >> trump was able to go further. >> the new year's trump the old i have not seen a political cycle so confounding in my lifetime. it could continue into a year of the most historic time. we could see a great party split in two. that, i think, is what i'm seeing among the republicans. a slow motion break. the question is whether it will play out over the next few cycles or turn abrupt and firing in this one. some speak of the prospect wondering if the new logo will be on. the american two party system has reigned since their beginning and kept us from much woe. it has provided stability and reliability and yes, the process. the breaking and splintering but the divisions he's revealed will not, i suspect will be revolved
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so easily. >> those of us elected in 94 and we've seen it ever since 94 got elected as populous. we were populous conservatives. donald trump super sizing it, amping it up. we thought all the trade deals. this is not really new on the congressional level. it is new on the presidential level. very quick an easy question. is haley barber going to go to cleveland and is he going to endorse donald trump.
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>> i think if trump is the nominee you're going to see a lot of republicans try to get another person to run and back that person to keep the party together. not all of them. they're going to turn quickly to try to cool off a lot of the establishment. >> these are my questions. will hay lee barber endorse donald trump? if he wins. >> depends on how trump handles himself. >> what do you think? >> what do you think? >> ryan told the washington post in today's paper he's going to back trump since he's the nominee and thinks trump can win a nomination. i think the republican establishment may sit home but the party apparatus, the institution is getting ready for the possibility.
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>> one of the things undervalued about trump's appeal is that he's self-funding and not getting money. one of the big populous things is i'm not owned by anybody. voters talk about this all the time. that goes to people like hay lee barber who see the party more as a party. >> trump featured in a new video from al qaeda. >> look, this is the problem. i bring it up, other people have called me and say you have guts to bring it up because frankly it's true but nobody wants to get involved. now people are getting involved. you look at germany brus ls, all
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over the world they're shutting down cities that never had a problem before. john, it's a big problem. >> the recruitment video by terrorist organization. >> they use other people too. i have to say what i have to say. >> i tell you what, that's a winning message in the republican primary and a lot of democrats. >> this follows the unsubstantiated claim that hillary clinton made in last month's democratic debate he was being used in an isis video. trump saw that as well. >> she said it was isis. at some point they're going to do something. what does that mean, we're not suppose to speak about the enemy and they are the enemy, by the way. because if we do we're going to
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be in a propaganda. her husband is in a propaganda. >> bill clinton returns to the campaign trail. trump did not let up on the clintons yesterday saying he will not allow hillary clinton to campaign as a strong advocate for women. >> she's got a problem. she's knarr married to a persons a serious abuser and at the highest level and she's an innocent victim. she was the one that would go along with him in this whole game they play and you look at what happened with some of the people he took advantage of. she's not the innocent person sitting by the side with tears
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in her eyes. she's a person very much involved. she was flying off heavy. all the sudden as you noticed it stopped. >> i'm the only one that's willing to talk about his problems. i mean, what he did and what he has gone through, i think, is frankly terrible especially if she wants to play the woman card. >> when is he known to play the woman card? >> she is panderring to the public. she's panderring to women. when she did it with me, she talked about sexist and i said me, i have more respect for women by far than hillary clinton has. >> this all started when she suggested donald trump do we
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expect bill and hillary to stay away from that? >> we have one person that will go there. this falls in line with his entire philosophy that he's willing to say the things people are thinking. hooegs willi he's willing to say them out loud. it has been talked about 25-30 years ago and it's gone away and people have been unwilling to say it. this is a real issue back in the campaign. hillary clinton is being asked about it in the town hall meetings and this is back on the table because of donald trump. >> and there's a rule where if you open the door to a certain line of evidence, then that evidence comes in. the question is, hillary clinton made the mistake once of saying that donald trump was a sexist. i said made a mistake. she opened the door to these lines of attacks.
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the question is whether she stops doing that again. if she does, you know he's going to bring up anita and kathleen and all these lists ef women who have very specific things to say. i'm going to go to mark and then gene. does she stay away from this from now on? >> i think the campaign trail may not resist going after trump. in terms of trump, i think the reason this is politically brilliant, one of the things he was vulnerable to is the charge he's not a real republican and he is now the leading anti clinton spokes person in the country. i think it will be difficult for him to have an add saying things nobody else will. >> dond trump in some says kind of kicked bill clinton off his
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strengths to campaign. if you're the clintons you can't be bullied. if they back off at that point they do what trump wants. the clinton path is going to come up at any event at some point some how because it's there. you get the clintons, you get their past. i think now or later it was going to be there.
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>> if think attack donald trump because of how he treats women, that closes the door, right. >> you know, that opens the door and that's right because he could go after them. whether or not they attack him for being sexist. i think his positions on issues that are important to women is something they're going to go after. some of the crude and offensive things he said are probably things they're going to go after because they want to show up and energize the woman's vote in favor of hillary clin tend and they have to look down the road at the possibility of running against him in the general election. they got to get those voters. >> i think it's going to be tough for them. i think they're going to stay away for peace. >> i think they're going to assume for peace on this one
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issue. they're going to attack a lot for economics but on this issue i think they'll sue for peace. it's an asymmetrical war with trump at all times. why do we think everybody's attacking everybody except for donald trump? he's the one guy nobody's attacking today. >> it is the case, however, hillary clinton in a general election against donald trump hillary clinton has two huge advanta advantag advantages. i don't think in the long run if she ends up running against him he won't try to exploit his dpl his damages. most of america knows bill clinton's history. they went through impeachment. it's for many americans priced in the bill clinton's stock. many like bill clinton.
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they're especially popular among a lot of democrats and likely or not he's popular with democratic women. >> especially. >> i think that i just think that it is something that nobody talks about. >> i will say this. it's fascinating what people say about bill clinton. it's fascinating what people say around this table and dinner tables when the red light goes off. it's fascinating and that's what makes donald trump dangerous. he doesn't have the filter polite societies have about bill clinton. >> i'm not sure it's polite to block it out. >> trump will attack back. >> they've already put out a statement saying hillary clinton will not be if he canned. you talk about headlines and
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what will make trump powerful. >> your exactly right. all sources attacking republicans. he's spent the last month for the primaries attacking. >> and showing he'll take on the general election. >> let's end this block with richard's piece and the executing of foreign policy. if showing up is 80% of life, at least 80% of foreign policy is following up. strong negotiating skills are essential. they are never enough. not even close. as with business, education and much else in life, most of what makes foreign policy work or not is a matter of implementation and execution. this observation will be tested more than once in 2016 and subsequent years all for the major international reached in 2015, the ttp, the security counsel syria resolution and the paris climate agreement and the iran nuclear deal required great
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effort to negotiate. making them work in 2016 and beyond proves harder. we saw parts of the iran deal beginning to take hold. >> right. richard, so much of this passed with either a divided congress or a congress that didn't even engage. >> you're exactly right. in one case congress has yet to engage which is the trade agreement. it's quiet possible that could be the most consequential national security foreign policy outcome of the coming year. whether congress is able to pass that agreement and can't, i think it would be every bit of consequential in a negative way for the asian allies with japan and others as what we didn't do in syria proved to be with the saudis and others. this has become a real test taste for the america's ability to function. the most important person in 2016 beyond barack obama could
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be paul ryan and whether he's able to cobble together a working majority of coalition. >> one of those issues he's going to be able to do that on, he's not going to be able to do that on paris. is he going to be able to do that on trade? >> paris, no. it's a long term thing. i just mentioned it. there's been way too much about what's been accomplished there. we have a long way to go. the trade will be the real issue. >> richard, thank you. robert costa, stay with us. still ahead, chuck todd here with new polling that could help explain the rise of donald trump. plus, protesters who took over a national wildlife refuge in oregon said they plan to stay at the site for as long. >> can i ask a question. why are they still there? do we not have anybody that can get them out of there? >> okay. >> i'm serious. you take over buildings and the governments take you out of there. get a bulldozer and knock it
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down. why are they still there? >> let's go -- >> no, no, no. i want to know. answer that question. why are these people allowed to take over government buildings? >> because if they go and there's violence there's no outcome. there's no harm being done. >> there's no harm being done. we're going to go live to oregon and get your answers for you. >> get them out. get them out now. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay. uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy? (dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not the way the world works. well, the world's changing. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab.
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the three followers of power, listen, we're not knocking chris or anybody afterwards, we're just saying from 5-7:00, man, politics, politics, politics. 5-8:00. then, of course, you want to see chris at 8:00. as far as just pure, straight, right, straight into the vain politics. >> the vain. >> it's going to be so good. is that the way you roll? >> i'm thinking more speed pall. >> no, seriously. >> they have a guest host.
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>> meet the press at 5:00. what about tom at 6:00, hard ball at 7:00. it's unbelievable. >> do you have wrinkles today? it's 2016. the presidential election. >> this is so exciting. it's real. >> chuck we got a lot to talk about. let's set it up. this january, an extraordinary month. if you look at the hard data, it's hard not to say trump is looking pretty good on the republican side. you look on the democratic side and you see bernie raising all this money. bernie's story to me is every bit as extraordinary as every other story out there. >> it's really fascinating too if he uses this money wisely and able to -- to me, this all game,
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the clinton campaign sees how much money he has. if he loses one of two, he's going to stick around all the way. going to the convention and questions what that means. he's going to have to constantly spend money in the primary state. she wants to be able to ice this thing. win iowa and win new hampshire. it's drafting money a little bit. >> is that going to happen? >> it could. all the reactions narrow it. >> let's go to the republican
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side. what's so fascinating here we have donald trump in first place in 49 of the 50 states. yet nobody's attacking him. it is the you got kasich, rubio killing. >> have they given trump first place. >> i don't know if they have given trump first place. i think some of the campaigns are in denial and soon it's going to revert to the norm. almost like they're uttering to themselves. as kevin bacon and animal house
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remain as well. >> crazy. >> there's still a lot of campaigns banking on normality coming to voting. >> right. >> this notion of the brackets, those theories which you heard in previous cycles. this cycle republicans are counting on it. i don't know if they believe it or pointing to it as a last desperate hope. that argument of. >> there's no way we can win. >> that argument. >> we can't be the front runner. >> let's try to win the update. >> i bet people legitimately say if marco finishes third, third, second and i'm sitting here going huh? >> by the way, the problem is, we've talked about it and schoeed the new york times map about where the voters are. the second u-turn south of the new hampshire. you're going into the belly of
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the beast. look at the land. that's trufr land. >> telt r tell me if you're kasich or christie. >> that's not. >> we're all talking about new hampshire. look at the day after new hampshire. my god, if all goes south and when it goes south, that is trump land, right. >> there's also another problem. all of the things for 2015 is the campaigned vote total of trump, cruz, carson, fiorina is well over 50%. if you consolidate all the britishment vote, there might not be enough establishment vote to win this year. >> only in new hampshire is the nonconservative vote approaching over 50 percent. that's the other thing. what happens in new hampshire will be unlike any other primary
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republican elector rate in the country. if an establishment candidate can't win there? that's the thing. in the past conservatives have gone for candidate a. donald trump gets as many moderates as he gets conservatives. >> right. and people who are democrats. registered democrats. the argument about why donald trump will not win the nomination in spite of all this polling. people say they support him on the telephone and excited by him but they won't go out and pull the lever for him. i heard governor christie say that over the weekend. a lot of people still don't believe people are going to actually show up and vote for him. that's the only way you can rationalize him not winning. >> people that wait in line three hours to see the trump
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show. they'll wait three hours to show up. >> what is this, january 2nd? january 2nd in mississippi. it's a brilliant incite. they're outside waiting around a coliseum to see this guy and they're not going to vote. >> who is he? taylor swift? >> right. that's the part of this that yes, i do think there are people that go to the trump show the way that people go to the grace land museum. ever known people to go see grace land. there's people who want to stair at the elvis fans and gawk. they want to gawk at the trump supporters. if they' they're waiting in line to see them there. >> let's talk about the nbc
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survey monkey poll. talk about anger. >> it was, look, there's a brain child. that's why. everybody's angry. what are they angry about? where is all the rage coming from? >> washington. >> there's rage in washington. when you dip into it, the angriest parts, they're not white men, by the way, white women. part of it is you learn women are impacted by all of the bad stuff they've been seeing. >> why like women? >> they're seeing everything that's happening to the country and sort of internalizing it all. whether it's a shooting, whether it's the cultural changes, politics where white men are more about what's happened than me. or women worrying about their families too. >> remember, back in 2004 was a
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terrorism dominated election and the strength of the republican campaign happening now. >> chuck, thank you very much. >> pretty fascinating. >> i know. it's suppose to be angry white guys. >> i know. >> mika's angry. >> trust me. >> mika's angry. >> it's not archie, it's edith. holy cow. >> i am very angry. >> coming up, schools in one oregon county are closing over security concerns of a stand off and why is it a stand off when people have taken over government buildings? do you guys not have a bulldozer out there? knock them down, get them out and put them in jail. >> that's ridiculous. >> it's not ridiculous. then those places change every few months... please. it's time you got the
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in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time.
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here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. eyes on oregon this morning. one of which is being led. the nevada rancher known for his 2014 stand off with federal authorities over dwrgrazing rig of protesters. facing jail time for lighting fires on federal lands, okay. their attorney says they'll report to federal prison today but that hasn't stopped the
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stand off. >> we're here only to promote the constitution. the supreme law of the land and to help people re-establishment. >> the sheriff has warned people to stay away from the refuge:at least one local school district has cancelled classes. >> let's bring in right now, here's my deal. if you're taking over the president's office at columbia university the law is the law. these people are trespassers, right. >> it's a slippery slope. from the day you occupy a federal building there, what's next? where do you cross the line from civil disobedience to the part where you can spark a conflict. the people and federal government and taxation, that's
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really what this comes from. this is from an idea that the federal government feels legitimate. i feel there's a roll for the federal government. a potential broader fire, not just the prairie land but in people's hearts. >> good point. >> let's talk about what's happening in the middle east and the politics surrounding too. said rab i can't and iran, why should americans be concerned this morning? >> this is not just two countries in conflict. they're fighting wars everywhere whether it's syria, iraq, wherefore. the problem is this represents a broader conflict and that has a potential to inspire in a civil war within the muslim community. before we get to the point where people say let them all fight each other over there, the idea of a completely destabilize middle east makes what's happening now like complete
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childs play. and look at the fact saudi arabia has mecca and what happens when they walk into mecca and say this is -- ter o r territory. >> they have protected them and their interest. the people inside saudi arabia including the highest reaches has weakened. >> absolutely. >> i think it's happened largely because of what's going on in iran. saudi arabia and iran are big enemies. not just saudi arabia, all the countries in that area that are concerned with what iran are doing and yemen and elsewhere. just talking with diplomats from saudi arabia and uae, the
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question is where is america and where is its loyalties and is it going to be here to protect us in the future? there's a lot we disagree with. s for our troops to meet on the battlefield. >> thank you very much. >> carly fiorina said is tongue in cheek but twitter called it pandering. did the presidential candidate turn her back on her alma mater
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republican presidential candidate -- tweeted, quote, love my alma mater but rooting for a hawk eyes win today. >> she was kidding. >> it was a joke. >> she was ditching her alma mater, stanford for iowa. yesterday she defended herself. >> for heaven sakes, can't a girl ever have a little bit of fun? that was a tongue in cheek tweet which the people of iowa understand because i was asked over and over again in iowa having attended a hawkeye tailgate, i was asked. you knew my heart was torn.
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you would think based on this reaction i had said something really controversial like isis have a j.v. team. if the biggest mistake i make is a tongue in cheek tweet about the rose bowl, america will sleep safe when i am president of the united states. >> carly fiorina was blamed, even sparking the hash tag carly curse. >> we'll be right back with more "morning joe" right after this. ♪ oh, thunder road the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve.
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a quick date, donald trump storms into 2016 with a mega rally. we'll show you why he was actually angry with the cameraman. and we'll play the very first television ad of donald trump's campaign. that's all ahead on "morning joe." ♪ g wine g wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive.
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good morning. it is monday, january 4th. welcome to "morning joe." happy new year. >> 2016. >> willie, did you ring it in nicely? >> it's going to be a pretty poring year, huh? >> yeah, nothing going on. >> we've been talking in hypotheticals until 2016 and now it's here, ten months until election day. >> and it is a mad dash. >> less than a month to iowa. >> less than a month to iowa. this was actually the time when four years ago, eight years ago, we were all on planes taught io iowa. >> here we go again. >> here we have a month. >> the last two cycles we were leaving iowa knowing who the winner was, on our way to new hampshire. >> on our way to new hampshire. so how unbelievable. january, you can't -- there is politically -- >> here we go. >> you can't be hyperbolic.
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this month is going to be like no month in recent american history. set it up for us. set the month up for us, john. >> we back now on the old schedule. in the years before those last two cycles, things would get going early jend of january, early february. we have one month -- >> if there were a final four bracket, two on the republican side, two on the democratic side, that's easier. what are we looking at right now for the final four a month out? >> i like to think about a final four on the republican side right now. christie, trump and cruz in what we think of the anti-establishment and christie and marco rubio now in the establishment bracket, though the two anti-establishment candidates much strong are and then of course hillary clinton
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and bernie sanders. >> on the establishment side, they are a pack of peronas. donald trump could not have set this up more perfectly. and now cruz is getting in the fray because now we hear huckabee and others are going to savage cruz. you literally have donald trump here alone, who everybody is afraid to attack and everybody's savaging themselves to get the chance to run against trump. >> the things about trump that people continue to underestimate, his biography matters a lot to him. this new ad that deals with the threat is emotional and that's the strongest thing in politics.
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candidates that are still searching for a closing argument. trump has his and it's where he opened and it's strong. >> so we have you here, managing editors of bloomberg politics, mark halperin and also eugene robinson joins us. >> he's always special. >> there are just four weeks left until the iowa caucuses and donald trump has unveiled his first television ad, a 30-second spot to air in iowa and new hampshire, which we bring you for the first time now. >> i'm donald trump and i approve this message. >> the politicians can pretend it's something else but donald trump calls it radical islam beiislamic terrorism. that's why he's calling for a temporary ban of muslims coming into the united states until we know what's going on. and he'll build a wall on the
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mexican border that we will pay for. >> we will make america great again. >> nothing like ringing those bells. one after another after another after another. you look at a remarkable "new york times" story yesterday, other than the part that basically said every trump supporter is a racist. look at the remarkable make-up of people who support donald trump, every withone of those messages goes right to the heart of it. he's shaking the board up. he's completely shaking the board up. you've got democrats -- what was that like the strongest trump supporters are democrats. >> there's a trump coalition that a lot of republicans think is going to somehow fall away when the voting starts and it might. but he believes this his message. his message is emotional and those are powerful things to have in politicpolitics, partic in a crowded field when people are looking for leadership.
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>> you can -- jeb bush is having trouble finding his footing. what's your closing statement? marco rubio, who is still -- i could name five different issues where he's still trying to have it both ways. donald trump goes right into the fray. five of those five would offend most people watching this show. voters are going to look at it and go he gets it. >> there's the -- he started his campaign talking about building that wall in mexico, getting people upset about that back when he first entered. isis and paris and san bernardino brought the question of muslim terrorism to the forefront, so he went after muslims and said we should put a temporary ban. those two are the -- there's a nexus between those issues. they're both immigration issues, they're both security issues, they are both issues where he is criticized roundly for his
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proposals. >> how stunning that a 30-second ad, mika, actually talks about banning 1.4 billion members of a religion from entering this country temporarily. >> i hate it and i've stopped questioning its effectiveness because it works. >> they are both issues on which he's been roundly criticized yesterday he's flying straight into the face of that criticism. does not care. has not backed down at all. >> and his numbers keep going up. you look at the number of people that come out to the rallies. those mississippi rallies, i saw people, i don't know where the fire martial was, but i saw people that were crammed into the aisles. they said they had 13,000 people. if they had less than 20,000 people there, i mean, it would be -- they were everywhere. marco rubio goes to a rally and there will be 150 or 200. he had a thousand, i guess.
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they had one rally, that was a huge story. >> look at these people. >> donald trump, everywhere he goes, he gets these crowds. he and bernie sanders are light years away. >> we'll get to bernie sanders in a second. this giant rally in biloxi, mississippi, the trump spoke about the size of the crowd and then spent minutes berating the pool cameraman for shot showing the audience. >> these cameras back here right now, they will never show this crowd. they'll never show this crowd. no, no, they're never going to show this crowd. they're never going to show it. [ crowd booing ] >> turn it. turn it. turn it. spin it. spin it. spin the camera. i'd fire his ass right now if i
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could. >> you know, willie, part of it is the -- it's funny because it's true. the homer simpson. so many times the only way you can gauge how big a donald trump audience is by hearing how loud the crowds are screaming. along with bernie sanders, if jeb bush or marco rubio or john kasich or anybody could get more than a hundred people at a rally, they would be scanning the crowd all the time. >> this has become the norm now for him. that's part of the reason it's not news is that these are the crowds he gets every time he goes to any state he visits. massive crowds. he's tapped into something. it's so interesting. since we've all been together the last week and a half just talking to people across the country in the east, out west as well, they may not support donald trump, but they get why he's doing so well and in some ways sometimes begrudgingly they admire a he's been able to do,
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which is to find the vein of the american public, anger, resentment, worried about their jobs, worried about isis and to come out and say things explicitly and culturally they think he's sticking up for a lot of people who haven't been stuck up for. >> a lot of people say, ah, he's not going to do that, he's not going to do this but he gets us. you read the "new york times" article and it's about like he gets us, nobody else in washington gets us. bernie sanders on the other side, i'm going to say bernie sanders' name again because you look at his record haul of small fund-raising. people aren't maxing out. >> unprecedented. >> what he's done on the democratic side is equally remarkable. >> it is remarkable. look, bernie sanders has done a lot better than most people thought he would. look at the fund-raising totals, small donors. he's practically matched hillary clinton. on the other hand, he has some
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stuff to prove, right. he still has to prove that he has appeal to african-americans, to latinos, other important vital parts of the democratic coalition. back to trump for a minute, though. clearly he has run the most brilliantly unorthodox or unorthodoxly brilliant campaign we've seen in a long time to get where he is now the idea, though, that any aspect of the trump campaign is somehow undercovered, which he plays up at every rally -- >> is ridiculous. >> berating the press. the idea that he's not getting enough media coverage, showing what a phenomenon he is is just crazy. it's just absurd. that's working for him, too. >> it is. the challenge facing trump is to convert his rallies into votes. analysis shows his strongest reporters are self-identified
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republicans registered as democrats, concentrated in the south, appalachia and the north. they are less affluent, less educated ands will likely to turn out to vote. trump is relying on southern states, many voting on march 1st to catapult him to the nomination. >> up got to get out and vote. we can't take a chance. i say this all the time. if you're having problems, if you're not feeling well, if you're having all sorts of difficulty, if your wife says she's leaving you she doesn't love you anymore, i don't care. get out and vote. right? you got to get out and vote! >> mark, we've been saying it for months now, anybody that thinks they're going to turn south from new hampshire and somehow catch trump there are out of their mind. i mean, again, where most of my relatives are, where i grew up, the deep south, it doesn't get stronger for trump anywhere in
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america than the deep south. the yankees that look at ted cruz and say he's a southerner, they doesn't know that those of us in the deep south look at texas as if they're another brand of people. they're not southerners. the deep south that, is trump territory. that's why we keep saying if he wins iowa or even if he wins new hampshire, trump's off to the races. >> he's not a regional candidate. he has support in other parts of the country but he's very strong in those southern states. he's spent time there, has staff there and eventually i think will advertise there. the only person in the race who can make a plausible argument for beating trump is ted cruz. >> and he's raised a lot of money and ted's got the grass roots support. willie geist, very interesting. two of trump's strongest states, mississippi and new york state. something like 10 of trump's 10 strongest counties, new york
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state. >> right. so that's why when you hear new york media or washington media sort of turn up their noses at donald trump, it's often con it and to those urban centers, con it and to media outlets. if you look up into the state of new york, he's got big numbers. again, look at south carolina down there, too, as he turns down from new hampshire. south carolina could begin a southern set of dominos for donald trump. >> what is so fascinating, and we keep going back, was it nate cohen who wrote the story yesterday? it's so fascinating. this is the opt of ross perot. ross perot the further west, you went, the stronger his support got. here with trump the further west u go, the weaker his support goes. mark? >> again, he's not a regional candidate but those are the areas of his strength. >> by the way, that said, he's ahead in nevada. >> what's kind of kracrazy is t talk about the people who want
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to stop trump, members of congress worried about him at the top of the ticket, they are silent. ted cruz, the one with deep pockets isn't going after trump. he heads into the new year with no one really trying to slow him down. let trump win early and then other people can try to stop him later. it may be too late. >> still on "morning joe," chris christie has been putting in the work but he's going to have to fight jeb bush and john kasich first. and when it comes to grass roots fund-raising, bernie sanders -- >> he is the king. >> find out what he's done that another other candidate has done before him. but first, here's bill karins with the forecast. it's finally going to get a little cold. >> it's about time. some areas loof new york city are seeing their first freeze of the season, for the first time since april 1st new york city is now below 32 degrees. with it we are getting some lake effect snow. looks like chicago will have
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some snow showers heading your way. wind chill values in northern vermont are negative 13, by far the coldest air we've seen. the other story this morning, if you're waking up early with us from portland to seattle, a lot of freezing rain last night. a lot of schools are on one to two-hour delays. and how about the rain in call? we talked about an el needio winter. san diego a little rain this morning and a little around l.a. the next three days, we have two storms coming to the northwest, about two inches and maybe a little bit of flooding problems. one to two feet of snow in the sierras. ski areas in the east are struggling, out west they're loving it, off to a great start with their winter storms and snow pack. we leave you with a shot of new york city. tomorrow morning possibly down into the teens but we'll warm it
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presidential campaigns. >> hold it a second. we were going to talk about -- >> what? >> i asked when we went to break had we forgotten anything. >> yeah, like 50 things we never got to. >> there are a thousand things to cover. talked about a candidate that the establishment is now starting to say he's the one we're worried about. >> well, finally. >> and that candidate is? >> chris christie, the governor of new jersey and the comeback kid of late 2015. >> i used to get a lot of nasty e-mails about marco rubio and now i'm getting a lot of nasty e-mails about chris christie
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talking about how bad he was as a governor from opposing campaigns. it's like they've moved on. has he become like the establishment contender? >> i think right now all the -- everybody we talked earlier about the chaos in the establishment lane. i think all of the other establishment candidates in new hampshire see christie as the one who has some traction. he's not in any way dominating that bracket, but if you look at jeb bush not moving, john kasich not moving, christie turning it up week by week and catching on in new hampshire. in the final turn here, he's suddenly becoming the subject of a lot of focus and criticism. >> the world would be right again if christie did well in new hampshire. you know what i'm saying? >> here's the thing. hard work, hard work. knocking on doors. like doing town hall meetings when everybody was ridiculing him and mocking him months ago.
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if you look back to what we saw the first time we went to new hampshire, what we saw in iowa back in 2004, every name that we just named, i would not be surprised if john kasich won new hampshire, if marco rubio won new hampshire, if jeb bush won new hampshire. can you go down the entire list of all of these people. a month is a lifetime and nobody would have predicted even a day before new hampshire 2008, nobody would have predicted that hillary clinton would have won the new hampshire primary. 24 hours before. anything can happen. that's what's so crazy about new hampshire right now. >> pick your year. can you do eight years ago, four years ago, 12 years ago. the polls a month out before election day shift dramatically year to year. christie, he sat here and we said how do you get out from
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under this? he said i put my head down and work. town hall to town hall. how many appearances has marco rubio made in the state of new hampshire? it's not even close. all this again with the caveat that donald trump has a big lead in new hampshire. >> we're talking second place for now. >> i saw christie when he was down, and he never quit. and he is the best brawler in the race, the reason mitt romney almost put him on the ticket in 2012 because his political adviser said this is the best brawler in american politics. there's no perfect candidate in the race. his flaws haven't been discussed lately. i've seen him on the road. i flew on a plane with him a couple months ago. he constantly on the phone. this man could be the campaign manager for a presidential campaign. watch him come out of iowa a strong establishment candidate. >> we're talking about the
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establishment bracket to take on right now the guy that packs auditoriums. >> and cruz. >> and i think this brawler's quality is super important because establishment candidates are all looking for someone who can take on trump eventually. so part of the qualification, who can be the trump slayer in christie looks more like that than jeb bush or john case irk does. >> the candidates are beginning to release their fund-raising total. the money rate on the democratic side is looking like a close one. bernie sanders's campaign reported raising more than $33 million in the final three months of the year. just four approximately. this is fascinating. sanders allr overall fund-raising total tore 2015 was $73 million, he'll head into the new year just $10 million behind clinton in cash on hand. the sanders campaign said their
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donations broke the record set four years ago by president obama's reelection committee. small contributions made up the vast majority of all the money raised. the average donation was about $27. >> let's stop right there. gene robinson, unprecedented what bernie sanders is doing. the grass roots level of support that bernie sanders is getting. the young people that he's getting. and the fact that if they want to pay, unlike a lot of hillary's donors who are already maxed out, if they want to pay bz another $27 next week and another $27 the next week is they can. the only difference between donald trump and bfs is. i have a feeling if would be bernie sanders running away with the nomination right now. >> possibly because he has that
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irreducible nub of support that trump has on the republican side. look, if you had told me 12 months ago that bernie sanders was going to raise $73 million, i would have said you were crazy. it's incredible what he's done. >> the average contribution, $27. god bless america right there. god bless america. >> that says a lot about how many people he's reached and how many people are he has a good shot in iowa. he has a good shot in new hampshire. and we now know everybody thinking she's going to win in iowa and she could lose. this has happened before. the big question as i said earlier is where do you go from there? because you may run into a genuine fire wall in south
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carolina. >> here's talking about his fund-raising campaign yesterday. >> i think that people are tired of establishment politics and establishment politics. the manifestation of that is the kind of incredible fund-raising we've been doing in terms of small, individual donations. we have 2.5 million small individual-style contribution campaign. that is more than any campaign in the history of the united states of america and i think that speaks to the enthusiasm and support that we're getting at the grass roots. >> and there is enthusiasm. these are people that love him. and they're not looking for anything like ambassador sheeps and like chris christie, he's been out there working it every day, in the trenches. he's exhausted. >> you look at that guy that was just on this week and if that guy came to me and said, hey, i want to run for senator in a mid size state, i would go, yeah,
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that's really nice. why don't you try congress. >> you look at donald trump and his crazy campaign. it's such an obvious statement. but talk about the year of the anti-politician. the reason why marco, jeb, all these people that look prepackaged are not doing so well, i mean, look at bernie sanders and donald trump. they are the anti-politicians of all time and they're doing great. >> and in their own different ways, they're railing against the way business has been done in this country the last seven years. call it a generation. donald trump and what bernie sanders has is real authenticity. he's saying the things that he would -- >> just like trump. >> and they both believe what
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they say, which is such a big benefit. >> by the way, you say what does trump really believe? is he ka democrat. we're being suckers, the japanese are suckering us, we're so study p stupid, our leaders are stupid, we're getting ripped off. he is saying the same thing that he's been aing for the he's coming here, not doing any fund-raising here. there's no other candidate who would show up in history the second thing is he has that $28 million on hand. he's going to have another time to advise against hillary clinton in iowa, new hampshire. he could be on theary matching
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her tireless. -- coming up on "morning joe," if you're in iowa, chans are you'll run into mike huckabee overs next month. he'll be holding 150 events across the states between now and the caucuses, including 25 this thursday alone. >> wow. >> he managed to carve out some time for us. plus chinese stocks tank so badly today it, led to a trading halt for the rest of the session. we'll look at the impact for the u.s. market ahead on "morning joe." and got more. more savings on car insurance? yeah bro-fessor, and more. like renters insurance. more ways to save. nice, bro-tato chip. that's not all, bro-tein shake. geico has motorcycle and rv insurance, too. oh, that's a lot more. oh yeah, i'm all about more, teddy brosevelt. geico. expect great savings and a whole lot more.
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mika, something that we need to start with here. >> really? >> we're looking at the twitter. the kids call it the twitter. sfli >> it's twitter. >> have you noticed, there's so much republican hate on hate. >> the spirit of the holiday season dissipated quick. >> they're calling all trump supporters stupid. everybody does. >> why doesnn't we talk to our t guest about something other than this. >> we need a uniter and not a dividers. >> a man who will practically be living in iowa over the next month. governor, are you really going to make like 150 stops in less than 30 days? >> holy, cow! >> that is our schedule.
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we're going to do 150 events. and these are not drive-byes. these aren't just driving through a county and waving. these are actual events. there's no grass growing under our feet. but then again, with all the snow on the ground, nothing's growing under our feet right now. it's a busy month but we're going to hit all 99 counties, having done events by thursday of this week and that's since the middle of may. that's how you win iowa. >> governor, this is actually a tour schedule that would make the grateful dead envious. >> and tired. >> how important is iowa for you? do you have to finish in the top two? what are you thinking >> what keeps you? >> we have to be near the top. if we're fifth or sixth place in iowa with the investment that we're making here, then we clearly don't have a good path forward. but i just believe that people underestimate what happens in this state every election and
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they look at polls, which are often based on 2 or 300 samples. we did 5,000 phone surveys in iowa just before christmas. 75% of the people here haven't made up their minds. >> they're still undecided. and that's always the case, isn't it, governor? that was the case with you, with santorum. we talk about 2004 and the democratic caucus. >> think of barack obama in 2008. nobody thought that he was going to win the caucuses. it looked like it was hillary's up until the last few days,and barack obama shocked her. if she hadn't had turned it around in new hampshire, that was the only way she even stayed in. >> governor, what's your sense of what turnout is going to be like in the republican caucuses and how many votes do you think it's going to take to finish first? >> mark, i think it's going to be a huge turnout because there's so many candidates and so much energy here. the events are drawing a lot of people.
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i still hold the record for the most votes ever received in an iowa caucus back in 2008. i got just over 40,000 votes. i think the universe of votes is going to be somewhere between 120, 140,000 people talking out for the caucuses. it depends how many candidates are in play. i think it will be fewer than a lot of people think. a lot of candidates are running ads here but they don't have much of a ground game, they're not going out and doing the town halls. mark, you know that iowa people don't want to you fly over in an airplane, wave at them, give them 30 pounds of mail every day in their mailbox. >> who are you talking about specifically, governor? >> well, i would say any of the candidates that aren't really focused on a ground game and there a lot of candidates when you say has he been here? >> well, he came once or twice for a rally.
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but i think there's no substitute in this state to go out meet voters. if the grateful dead kept the schedule we're going to keep this month, they would be the ungrateful dead forever. >> the idea of mike huckabee stepping up into the role of the grateful dead in iowa kind of boggles the mind on some level. governor, i want to ask you about ted cruz. just before christmas, you and your superpark supporting -- he seems like the guy you have to get through if you're going to win these caucuses. tell us how you're going to go about doing that. >> it's not necessary so muching. not only have i been through this process it is but people
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here don't want authenticity. >> a read an article that said you and others are resentful of donald trump because you think he's a phony. is that correct? >> i'm just saying when people here my message, it going to be the same drifr that i'm in manhattan. may not be as well received in manhattan pu et still. i think it's one of the reasons that candidates people are saying what they really believe. they don't change the message, whether they're and they don't
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want to you think that somehow you would tell them something different than you would tell an audience in beverly hills or on the upper west side. >> you know what else they appreciate? >> what? >> fried squirrel. >> on a stick. >> thank you. very good to see you. we'll see you out there very soon. >> u.s. stock futures are in the red after a massive selloff in china. we'll go live to the new york stock exchange straight ahead. plus after years of standing by her husband, camille cosby is expected to break her silence this week. forced to do the latest next on "morning joe."
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introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com glad i could help you plan for your retirement. alright, kelly and promise me that you'll try that taco place on south street. and we have portfolio planning tools to help you manage your ira. yeah, you're old 401k give me your phone. the rollover consultants give you step-by-step help. no set-up fees. use your potion. sorry, not you. my pleasure. goodnight, tim. for all the confidence you need. who's tim? td ameritrade. you got this. all right. today's the first day of trading of the new year. >> that's all i'm saying, mika, today's the first day of trading in the new year. >> let's bring in sarah eisen
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live at the new york stock exchange. how is the china selloff going to affect the u.s. market? >> it's not looking too hot out there. bumpy way to start the first day of trading of the new year here on wall street. futures are showing it is going to be a sharply lower start for u.s. stocks. two major source of concern. china you mentioned. the chinese market tanked 7% overnight so much that a circuit breaker came into play and halted trading because it was such a sharp selloff. there was week manufacturing numbers out there that spooked investors and there are concerns about china's currency. it's a little bit of deja vu all over again last summer where that market sold off so hard that it caused our market to go into correction, a 10% slide. the other source of anxiety for markets is the middle east tensions. elevated price of oil on the concerns about saudi arabia and iran. two top-ten oil producers in the world. just giving you a warning here.
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january often dictates the way the year shapes up for markets. this is going to be a bumpy ride. fasten your seat belt. >> good to see you. up next, the criminal case against bill cosby and the civil case that may have his wife of more than 50 years testifying again him. that is next on "morning joe." and i'm still struggling with my diabetes. i do my best to manage. but it's hard to keep up with it. your body and your diabetes change over time. your treatment plan may too. know your options. once-daily toujeo® is a long-acting insulin from the makers of lantus®. it releases slowly to provide consistent insulin levels for a full 24 hours. toujeo® also provides proven full 24-hour blood sugar control
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in the same week that bill cosby was arrested on aggravated indecent assault charges, a
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federal judge in massachusetts ordered that cosby's wife of more than 50 years must testify in a civil case filed against him by seven women who say that he defamed them. camille cosby's attorneys say they will appeal the decision. the deposition scheduled for wednesday would be the first time she has answered questions under oath since scores of women came forward with sexual abuse allegations against her husband. cosby and his reps have repeatedly denied all allegations and his attorney says he will mount a vigorous defense against the criminal charges against him. "prior t joining us now, former prosecutor and criminal defense attorney, seema iyre.
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>> isn't there something that bars this. >> the spouse can be ordered to testify. what they're seeking to get her to say is what she new outside of that husband and wife communication. maybe what she saw, even setting up the facts, right, who came to your house, when did they leave? >> wouldn't you consider that confidential? >> no, because it's not the two of them alone in a space that's protected. >> so whatever he observed. >> right. exactly. this is such a fact-heavy case. there's 57 accusers outside of constand. what we expect is so many of these accusers may testify at the criminal trial. >> oh, lord. >> so we've got tons of smoke. how hard is it to find that fire? how hard is it if you're going to prosecute this case to go back 10, 15, 20 years. >> it's difficult because
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there's no physical evidence, right, there's no dna. you have to bolster the credibility of your victim. how do you do that? you show this guy has a history of prior bad acts, prior uncharged crimes to show a pattern or motive. think about this, every case that we've heard it's taking pills, drinking wine, taking pills, drinking booze. so that's a pattern. >> but that pattern could be -- if you're a defense attorney, you could say they saw this on tv, they decided their wanted their 15 minutes, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera -- >> okay, that's a good point. >> when you get to the specifics of the case and they're before the jury, they're like where's the pills, where's the booze, where is the physical evidence? i'm not defending bill cosby. >> i'll tell you what prosecutors do. there's something called rape trauma syndrome that's similar to post traumatic stress disorder, right? prosecutors will have a
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psychologist testify about the syndrome, specifically answering the question why did the girl not report right away, why did she wait, who did she tell? that person, a mom, a friend, that person also gets to testify. that's an exception to the hearsay rule. >> is there any way crosby will plead out? >> i don't think he'll take a plea. i've represented thousands of sexual predators and the worst of the worst cannot get to a place where they can admit it. >> you think he's a sexual predators? >> i do. 57 women, i do. some of these women are grandmothers. do they want to go on television and put their families and their
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grandchildren through this unless it's the truth? >> come back! >> up next, what if anything did we learn today? in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com
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and i'm jerry bell the third. i'm like a big bear and he's my little cub. this little guy is non-stop. he's always hanging out with his friends. you've got to be prepared to sit at the edge of your seat and be ready to get up. there's no "deep couch sitting." it's definitely not good for my back. this is the part i really don't like right here. (doorbell) what's that? a package! it's a swiffer wetjet. it almost feels like it's moving itself. this is kind of fun. that comes from my floor? eww! this is deep couch sitting. deep couch sitting!
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♪ and i'll be right home to you.♪. ♪ i think i hear them calling... ♪ ♪ oh, beth, what can i do... ♪ ♪ beth, what can i do... ♪ text beth, what can i do... [siri:] message. pick up milk. oh, right. milk. introducing the newly redesigned passat. from volkswagen. ♪ beth, what can i do... ♪ serious times require serious leadership. the last seven years under president obama have taught us that problems do not take care of themselves in the absence of american leadership. the united states should not delay in lead as global coalition to take out isis with overwhelming force. we are at war with radical islam
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ic radical terrorism. i'm jeb bush and i approve this message. >> that was a new ad set to air in new hampshire. >> he's going to be our guest tomorrow. >> what you have learned today? >> i learned that governor huckabee seems to think he's a m modern day incarnation of the grateful dead. >> 150 events. how is he doing that? >> i learned that donald trump and chris christie are going to come to a head soon. >> really? >> i think so. >> i'm excited about 6:00 tonight. >> i'm excited about don rickles airing tonight. >> they don't know what you're talking about. >> chris christie will be -- >> let me tell you what i
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learned. i learned that bernie sanders just doing things that nobody's done before, raising a lot of money, small donors. average $27 per donor over the last quarter. >> it's incredible. >> raised what, $30 million that way? >> a lot of money. >> that's unbelievable man. that is a movement. that is a revolution. i'm kind of feeling the burn. >> "msnbc live" is up next. have a great day. >> right now on msnbc, they are off and the race is on. candidates beginning their final sprint toward the iowa caucuses with 40 campaign events scheduled just for today. there are new attacks, new rhetoric and new tv ads. donald trump releasing his first tv ad earlier this morning. that spot seems to bypass his republican challengers and go straight to the general election. >> the politics can p

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