fleeing the islamic state and to say they're similar, is really unfair and really wrong. >> it's your first trip to new york. i hope you get a chance to enjoy the city a little bit. thanks so much for your time. the book is called "the lightless sky." that's it for this hour of msnbc live. i'm kate snow. "mtp daily" starts right now. if it's tuesday, donald trump and ted cruz are leading all the polls. so why are marco rubio and chris christie taking all the heat? and since when did the bronze medal in new hampshire become more expensive than gold? this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. every day i shake my head in astonishment at how this republican race is turning out. we kicked off 2016 saying this is only the start of an increasingly ugly battle for the
nomination. and tonight just 24 hours later, it's gotten uglier in a hurry. and there's a pileup in this establishment lane that we've been talking about for so long. and it's getting so intense that it could end up as a massive crash that ends up letting donald trump and ted cruz fly right by them. in other words, the exact thing that's happening, that the establishment pac says they want to avoid. so looking at the attack ads in the granite state, you'd think this was entirely a different race with two entirely different front-runners, chris christie and marco rubio. christie is single digits in national polls, including our poll, at 4%. but the groups backing the other candidates see christie as a huge threat in new hampshire. he's the target of tv ads from the super pac supporting john kasich, jeb bush, and marco rubio. rival campaigns are circulating
information highlighting his ethical challenges in his home state of new jersey. but today christie hit back at his opponents, not on tv ads, indicating there may be a money problem here for him. but jabbing both at christie and rubio and asking about the difference between a governor and a senator. >> barack obama, ted cruz, and marco rubio, you never want to think of consequence in your life. you've never made a decision in government of any consequence and all you do is essentially go to school. >> make no mistake, the establishment candidates don't believe christie can last beyond the new hampshire primary. but they've zeroed in on him as the major obstacle in their way in order to get to a good position in the granite state. now the challenge for christie is whether or not he has the money to fight back. he had just $1.4 million in the bank as of september 30th. assuming his finances haven't improved in the fourth quarter and we haven't heard his numbers, that tells you something. christie will have to bank on the deep pockets of some of his
new york metro area supporters to bail him out. and that is by no means a sure thing. they've been all over the map these days. meanwhile, rubio is fighting a two-front war, against the establishment in new hampshire, and against ted cruz in iowa. while the super pac supporting bush is knocking rubio over missed votes, the super pac supporting cruz is out with a new ad painting rubio not ready to lead. >> when someone views you as a threat, they're going to attack you. it's what people do. we can't have another president that supports common core or gun control, or expanding obamacare. these are serious policies and there's nothing in those ads that's inaccurate. >> rubio basically reiterating the actual ad transcript of his super pac, but they don't coordinate. now as they go after each other, guess who is left untouched in
all this? trump and cruz. trump is at the top of the pack in our latest poll. 35%. cruz is in second at 18%. together both candidates have over 50% of the vote. cruz, actually the first time he's been ahead in a state not named iowa and ahead of trump. but it's still one-two, trump-cruz. according to politico, the latest plan comes from veteran republican consultant alex castellanos, who has been meeting with operatives and donors to gauge interest in launching an anti-trump vehicle that would pummel the manhattan businessman on the airwaves. so why is the establishment going after one another instead of the actual front-runners? why risk giving it to them on a silver platter.
new hampshire has been and will continue to be ground zero for this fight for the establishment lane. it's where many of the candidates took part in a forum today on substance abuse. it's also where kasie hunt caught up with jeb bush and bush added his voice to the establishment fight, comparing his record to that of christie, going directly after him. >> do you think that governor christie is a better politician than you are? >> no, absolutely not. and i have a better record. >> why is he getting traction with his town halls here if. >> well, we'll see. he's a good guy for sure. >> what's his biggest weakness as a candidate? >> i've got a proven record. my record is one as a conservative applying conservative principles and moving the needle in the right direction. i don't think he can make that same claim. >> well, joining me now from new hampshire is kasie hunt. so kasie, that's subdued jeb bush, but i think what's rocking things today, is rubio v. christie. and i want you to talk about christie here in a moment, but
he just did an interview with "the washington post" and i got to read you one comment. christie is hitting rubio hard. quote, i just don't think marco rubio's going to be able to slime his way to the white house. he wants to put out a whole bunch of negative ads, go ahead. i hope he will acknowledge at some point that i couldn't care less. this is nasty stuff between these two. >> christie proving there that he can throw a punch, in many ways being more like donald trump in giving "the post" that quote than maybe some of the other candidates. i would say that privately christie's team would say they don't think that rubio is capable of taking a punch and that that is the question here. of course you rightly pointed out that christie doesn't have a ton of money, or hasn't been sitting on a ton of money to be able to make that attack on the airwaves. so he's doing it in interviews -- >> he's doing it the trump way. >> exactly. i have to tell you, when you
come on the ground in new hampshire, i've covered jeb bush extensively here, i've covered john kasich here. it's very easy to tell when you go to the different events, why it is that suddenly everyone is attacking chris christie. this guy has really put in the time. he's been here seven, eight months. he's really gotten better at the forum that he's chosen, these town halls, and he has a way of bringing the room to him. he really has many of these people in the palm of his hand. it's a completely different experience than going to a town hall for kasich or bush or really anyone else i've seen up here. he has a way of commanding the room that just underscores what natural political skills he has. and these are serious topics. he's talking about 9/11, terrorism, he's making that pitch, but he also has the crowd laughing and laughing about president obama after hurricane sandy. he tells the story about how the president handed him a phone number, sent him some gas, but
the gas didn't get delivered. and he called the president back in the middle of the night and said, you gotta fix this for me. so the question is whether he can get to enough voters in time. >> kasie, what you're just describing is exactly the description people would have said about a guy named john mccain in december of 1999 in new hampshire, the first time the mccain roadshow debuted up there. similarities there for a reason, i think. >> i think you're right about that. and i think that kasich and bush have also tried to implement that strategy, if you look at the way they've done their schedules here, the team behind kasich is the same team that was originally working with mccain in 2000. the issue, their candidates don't connect the way that christie does. in the long run, unless these darks take down christie, this is their best shot at getting to him before the primary. >> they've all done the private polls. they don't spend the money unless they've done private polls.
obviously christie is at least in third place if not second. i can't wait for some of our only public polling coming very soon. kasie hunt, thank you. >> thanks, chuck. >> let me bring in ben ginsburg, former counsel for mitt romney and most recently was a senior adviser for wisconsin governor scott walker. i'm sorry, we've been having this conversation a little bit offline. i'm just shaking my head. we've not seen something like this before, where there is just two campaigns going on and the nasty fight is for third place. is the establishment about to just implode on itself? >> yeah, why is this campaign different from all the others? >> a little early for passover, but -- >> you're right, they both have polls showing the same things. they're fighting hard for third-party. it's living to fight another day. and when they're shooting at you from all over, you just kind of turn around in a circle and fire. >> i guess i go, look, you're in
the sidelines, you don't have a dog in this fight now, but letting cruz and trump basically go, i guess fly above, and this isn't under the radar, they're flying above. once you gain altitude with wins in iowa and new hampshire, it can matter. >> it can. but if you're rubio, bush, christie, kasich, you need to win a state, exceed expectations to get in the fight to have a chance to take on trump or cruz. >> well, the reason we have you here, the establishment thinks third place is worth having right now is because of this primary calendar and the craziness of it. you've been giving a lesson plan of sorts of how this convention -- contested convention could happen and why this primary calendar is different from all other calendars. let me put up a slide that you've been putting around here and it has to do with the three different scenarios you've been outlining. i believe one has a scenario of
how you get -- somebody gets all the delegates and gets the nomination, there's a clear winner. likelihood of that? >> i think that's the odds-on choice, that's what historically republicans do. it's a different kind of year, but you have to say that history shows a clear winner. >> but how long would it take to get to that number? let's say ted cruz goes iowa-new hampshire sweep and is able to do this, how long would it take him to get there? >> as a matter of math, you have to have about 68% of the republican primary delegates selected. that comes in 2016 in the middle of april. >> middle of april? >> yes. now with john mccain, with george w. bush, with bob dole, that number was in early march. calendar changes put in after the 2008 elections changed a lot of dynamics that are under-appreciated. >> let's move up the second and third scenarios. two of your three scenarios, hoping to put the slide back up,
you call it a clear cluster, no candidate ahead or a party buster where there's a front-runner, but they're short of a majority. >> right. >> it seems of the three scenarios, some combination of the second two is more likely considering how big the field is. >> i think should one of those scenarios take place, it will matter. there's one candidate who is clearly ahead and a bunch who gang up on him or her, then that's a real sort of way to tear the party apart. in a clear cluster, where no candidate has a majority of delegates going in, then kind of everything's fair game. the nerds like me start getting goose bumps and fight it out. >> before we get too wonky and lose people here, the bottom line, we're seeing this fight with the establishment, which seems to be a fight for second or third in new hampshire. they're not even trying to win it, maybe they are. they say they're trying to win it, but they want to be the
leading establishment candidate. isn't this guaranteeing the contested convention, if that's the scenario that plays out? >> it depends if you have two or three lanes. there's three lanes, there's a greater chance of a contested convention. >> the trump, cruz and establishment lanes. >> and the campaigns know this. the most conservative states go early. so that things fall more to the establishment's advantage potentially -- >> but not until later. >> not till later. they've got to survive beyond march 15th. >> conservatives are -- they're ceding momentum in all the early states. >> that makes it tougher for anyone to get the delegates they need. >> what's the likelihood we'll have it by may 11th.
>> rick santorum made clear he wasn't contesting pennsylvania in -- so i think the three weeks early, the chances of that are probably 40% now. >> ben, it's a fun year. thank you, sir. coming up, we have exclusive new sound from the two presidential front-runners on either side. hillary clinton plays "hardball." donald trump drinks a little "morning joe." plus, mike huckabee joins me with reaction to both candidates and an update on his campaign. and later, the president's emotional call for action on gun laws. a look at what he wants to accomplish, and the possible legal challenges that are ahead. stay tuned. these modern times? it's a housewife who's in control of the finances. actually, any wife, husband, or human person can use progressive's name your price tool to take control of their budget. and while the men do the hard work of making money, she can get all the car insurance options
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afghanistan. this all happened near the city of marjah in the helmand province with the taliban has been gaining ground in recent months. two helicopters were called in to help ground troops. one was waved off. the other made a hard landing when it hit a wall and lost a rotor blade. it's unclear if it was fired upon or if anyone on board was hurt. as we get more details, we'll bring them to you. we'll be back with more "mtp daily" right after this. and when i finally told my doctor, he said humira is for adults like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. and that in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief. and many achieved remission. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems,
serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, remission is possible. well, it's less than a month to go until the iowa caucuses. candidates are doubling down and as donald trump put it, quote, not taking any chances. we're going to hear exclusively from three candidates. first trump himself. today he sat down with our pals joe and neeka to talk about his decision to go after bill clinton. >> two days ago, the clinton team said they were going to punch back, they were going to fight you, there was this back and forth. hillary clinton suggested you were sexist. you responded using her words
against her husband. it seems, if you look at the clintons yesterday on the campaign trail that they've backed down. is that how you see it? >> well, i don't see it any way. just, look -- >> but they're not attacking you anymore. >> i was attacked nine times during the debate. hillary called me sexist, that i had an inclination. what does she know about me? i had an inclination. when she said that, i said, your husband's now campaigning, it's open season. if he wasn't campaigning, maybe it would be different. and if he weren't a past president, it would be totally different, i'd leave the spouse out of it. but he's now campaigning for her. so all i did was recite history. don't forget, he lost his law license. he was impeached. he wasn't allowed to practice law. he settled for a tremendous amount of money. you know, there's a lot of things going on there, and she calls me sexist. >> but haven't they backed down? >> i don't go -- it looked like
they backed down. i don't call it that because tomorrow they can start it up. i'm just saying this, it's fair game, when they attack me, i'm going to attack them. if they don't, i would leave that off the table. >> you're saying today, you're only going to bring up bill clinton's past history as a possible sexual harasser if she accuses you of being sexist? >> sure, that's what it's all about. it had nothing to do with isis. with isis, she lied. >> so if hillary clinton attacks you on economics or foreign policy, then bill clinton's not fair game in that round? >> yeah. >> only if she accuses you of being sexist? >> he would be fair game if he did or said something having to do with foreign policy and other things that i disagreed with. >> but on a personal front? >> no, i wouldn't need to. there's so many things i can attack them on. >> we have our own counterpoint going on here. you heard from trump.
now here's hillary clinton playing "hardball" on trump. >> isn't this a republican party problem that started with trump's arrival on the world stage as some sort of politician, that it's ethnic with them? the president of the united states is one of the bad guys, if not the terrorists, one of the sneaker-iners. it's pretty sick. >> it's very divisive and counterproductive. it undermines our valueses, who we are as a people. we are a nation of immigrants, which you know so well. and when i hear what's coming from the other side, and it's not just one person, there's an echo chamber there and it's very troubling to me to try to divide and conquer, divide and conquer. a house divided against itself cannot stand. we need to be united. and we should not reward people who use inflammatory rhetoric, who use the kind of derogatory comments whether it's about muslims or mexicans or women or people with disabilities,
whoever it might be. that's not a sign of leadership. that's a sign of showmanship, of desperation that should be rejected roundly by the american people. >> well, let's talk to a third presidential candidate. joining me now, former arkansas governor and presidential candidate governor huckabee. good to catch up with you, sir. >> thank you very much, chuck. great to be on the show. >> i assume i'm catching up with you in iowa because where else would you be right now? >> that's a good guess because i'm doing 150 events in iowa just in january. and by thursday, chuck, we will have done town halls in all 99 counties of iowa since the middle of may. >> let me ask you this, governor huckabee, eight years ago, right at this moment in time, you were the iowa front-runner. what's going on? what's happening right now? why -- are the polls wrong, or is this just a different year? >> well, at this point, 30 days out, i wasn't the front-runner.
people thought i was beginning to advance, but romney was in the lead and most people believed he would win. and the question was, how close would i get to it. i ended up not just winning, but i ended up with more votes than anyone has ever received in the iowa caucus ever. so iowa has a real history of kind of rattling the cage. it's the same thing we saw four years ago when rick santorum was in sixth place, five days away from the caucus and he was in single digits and he came up and won it. >> why do you think ted cruz right now is resonating with the same group of voters they think you dominated frankly eight years ago? or do they not know him yet? >> well, we did a survey of 5,000 iowa voters just before christmas. 75% of them had not made up their mintds. and 58% aren't even leaning. i think right now, people are starting to pay attention. they're beginning to see the impact of us being in all these places for these many months.
and chuck, i'm still expecting there to be quite a surprise on february 1st. i think people understand that this is about electing a person to be president, somebody who can lead, who has experience, who understands what the problems are and has a history of fixing them. now i think that's sorting itself out over the next few weeks. >> the tone of this campaign is so much different than it was in 2008. you were a happy warrior. you've been known as that. people might say you've used some rhetoric, but not like we've heard this time. i wonder, have you been too nice for this electorate? do they want a little more fire and brimstone and that's just not you? >> you know, it's hard to say. i can't be somebody i'm not. one of the things i think people know, i'm going to be the same whether i'm in iowa or manhattan. the same in washington as i will be in walkee, iowa. i think that's a plus and i
think people ultimately believe that. so i can't go out there and be somebody i'm not, but not only with what i believe, i don't wake up every day with a new conviction based on the polls, but i have to be, even in personality who i really am. it's just easier. like my dad raised me to believe, son, if you tell the truth, you don't have to remember what you said and to say the same thing next time. it sure does make it easier. >> fair to say, if you don't win iowa, that's a problem for you? >> i don't think we have to win iowa, but there's going to be only a few people come out of here. it's not just for me, but it's for any of the candidates who have put a flag deep into the soil here. if we don't come in a cluster near the top, i think it's hard for us to justify and to make the case that we go on. that's not just true of me, it will be true of carson and cruz and trump, and whoever else, carly, all who are competing
here, and if you're not near the top of that cluster, then your donors and the voters, quite frankly you guys in the press will sort of say, it's over for him. >> i have to say, you've obviously spent a lot of time on this side of the desk because you're being a pundit there, and you're being realistic and straight. governor, i appreciate it. >> thank you, chuck. good to talk to you. >> stay safe on the trail, sir. and you'll be able to see all of these interviews, chris matthews with hillary clinton on "hardball," tonight at 7:00 p.m. and the full interview with donald trump airs on "morning joe" tomorrow morning. still ahead, new reaction to the president's plans for gun control. and jeb bush's spending is going to get record high, but will it boost him in the polls? we'll have the new details on our weekly spending tracker.
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breaking news here, we just got word of another veteran house democrat retiring the second in two days. steve israel said he will not seek re-election. he wants to devote more time to writing his second novel. mind you, he's been recruiting democrats to run just a cycle ago. and yesterday, 14-term washington state democrat jim mcdermott also said he would be retiring. by the way, mcdermott's seat, very safe for democrats. israel's seat in long island, that could be competitive. we'll see. still ahead, president obama's emotional plea for gun law reforms and the political pushback he's already receiving. but first here's julia boorstin with the cnbc market wrap. >> stocks end mixed but little change after yesterday's sell-off. the dow climbed nine points, the
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people on both sides of this issue together for an open discussion. i'm not on the ballot again. i'm not looking to score some points. we don't need to be talking past one another. but we do have to feel a sense of urgency about it. >> the president stressed that his steps will not be enough to drive changes needed to totally curb gun violence, but he wants to push the conversation forward. here's what the executive actions will do. clarify who needs a license to sell guns. which is an attempt to also improve the background check system. change the rules for reporting lost or stolen guns. here's some of what the measures won't do. require background checks for every sale, ban sales for people on the no-fly list, there's no ban on large capacity magazines or assault weapons. the president will still need congress to hire 200 new atf agents and put $500 million
towards mental health care. pete williams, justice correspondent, is this a big move that he made, or is this is a bully pulpit move with small changes to the law? >> put it this way, it's public education. i think that's what the hope is. i think the centerpiece of this is trying to get more people to have federal firearms licenses and as a result, be required to conduct background checks when they sell guns. but no one, as of today, is required to get a gun license to sell guns that wasn't required to do so yesterday or last week. it doesn't expand the number of people who must be covered. all it does, it says, look, here's what the law says. you have to have a license to sell guns if you're engaged in the business. and the law goes further on how to define that. so what the administration has done here, the president, by his own statements, the atf with the publication they put out today, saying, look, just reminding you what the law says. do you sell guns over and over
again? do you buy them intending to sell them? intending to make a profit? do you have credit cards, do you have a website? you have to have a license. are you unloading your collection, selling your uncle's guns you never wanted? you don't need a license. >> enforcement, are we going to see agents at the next gun show where they'll start tracking dealers and go down to miami and go down there? is that what we're going to see? >> yeah, well, if they try to sell them in d.c., they're all in big trouble. but someplace outside of the district. but these cases are hard to make. you can't just walk into a gun show and saying, you're wiselli guns and you don't have a license, you're under arrest. you make the case by sending undercover agents in to buy guns
in multiple places. bam, you've got a case. the president said he'll add multiple inspectors, but that barely keeps up with attrition. >> and congress will still have a role here. congress will have to approve this. and by the way, the rules that the president talked about, about reporting guns that are lost in transit, not using corporate covers to buy guns you're not entitled to buy. those are rules that are already in process. one started in 2013, and one in 2014. the conservative blog which jumps down the president's throat on executive actions saying he's exceeded his powers, they have a ho-hum approach to this today because he didn't do much. >> well, we'll talk about the legal ramifications here from a lawyer's perspective. pete williams, thank you, sir. so there's a fine line on how far executive authority can stretch. joined by former u.s. attorney general and counsel on george w. bush, currently the dean of
belmont university's college of law. mr. gonzalez, thank you for coming on. >> it's good to be with you. let's set aside the politics of this -- >> that's hard to do. >> on guns, it always is. but i want to get down to what the white house did today, in your legal opinion. >> yes. >> does it past constitutional muster? >> i haven't seen the executive order. so i'm relying solely upon the white house fact sheet which i'm assuming accurately represents the executive order, but i tend to agree with pete. in terms of what it does, which really isn't much. you know, the law requires that if you are engaged in the business of dealing in firearms, you have to register as a dealer. and so it really focuses on the activity itself, not where the activity occurs. from my reading of the law, the requirement to register as a dealer applies whether or not you're doing it at an establishment, or whether or not you're doing it at a gun show,
or whether or not you're doing it over the internet. and from that perspective, again, i haven't seen the executive order. i think pete's analysis is accurate. >> let me take it a step further. what would be your designation of what constitutes a gun dealer? three sales in a month, four sales in a month, at different locations? what constitutes a dealer in your legal opinion? >> well, listen, congress has defined what constitutes being in the business of selling firearms. this is your livelihood, for a profit. it talks about repetitive sales, the business of it. but it carves out the occasional sale or if you're transacting in firearms as a hobby. so the question is whether or not this redefines what constitutes being engaged in a business. and i think one could make a strong argument, and apparently the lawyers of the attorney general have persuaded the president that in fact this does not change the definition of
being engaged in the business of dealing in firearms, because the statute itself does not limit it only to businesses of establishment. it does not carve out the internet. it does not carve out gun shows. >> what about -- let me ask you this. why not on gun shows, should the person that's responsible, who puts on the show itself, the promoter, why isn't that the target of saying, you've got to provide the background check system for your show, anybody that comes in and wants to be at a table selling things, if you want to participate in this show, you have to go through this system here. why isn't the burden on the promoter? >> it may end up that way. it may be that promoters in order to get people to come sell their wares at gun shows may be willing to offer that service. i think it was pete or perhaps you that mentioned the difficulty that's going to exist with respect to going after people who engage in the business of dealing in firearms at gun shows.
because you are going to have to follow them, track them. and that's going to be very manpower intensive. but that's going to be the job of atf and that's going to be the challenge to atf. >> so the safer legal route would be if these gun show promoters said we'll take care of it, we'll provide the system there for you so that you don't have to worry about this? >> well, that would certainly facilitate the attraction of more sellers at these gun shows, if they don't have to carry that burden themselves. >> alberto gonzalez, former attorney general, and former counsel to the president and now dean of a law school, sir, nice to talk with you. >> good to talk with you. >> appreciate it. up next, the who, what, when, where, and why from today's headlines, including what will be missing from this year's state of tf of the union address. stay tuned. ly and promise me that you'll try that taco place on south street. and we have portfolio planning tools
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it takes an awful lot of time to keep the house clean. i don't know what to do. (doorbell) what's this? swiffer sweeper and dusters. this is nice and easy boys. it really sticks to it. it fits in all the tight spaces. this is really great. does that look familiar to you? i'm no longer the butler, i am just one of the guys. time for the ws, starting with the who. it's josh romney. mitt romney's son has set his sights on an elective office of his own. governor of utah. told a local newspaper that he's strongly considering a run in 2020. he's going to have to run against jason chaffetz that year. now to the what, a ted cruz reaction shot during the state of the union. you're not going to get one. cruz's press secretary says he'll be on the campaign trail in new hampshire next tuesday, not in the well of the house.
now to the where. it's michigan where straight party ticket voting is now officially gone. governor rick snyder signed a bill today meaning there's only nine states left that do it. when you can just pull the lever straight d, straight r, of course, straight d.c. party. now to the when. it's january 18th, when the british parliament will debate a petition to ban donald trump from the uk. more than half a million have signed a petition to ban him after his proposal to ban muslims from the united states. now to the why. twitter is considering a new feature that would allow 10,000-character tweets. sources say it could happen in a matter of months. as for the why, it looks like twitter is going after medium, to be a place to post extended pieces to a large audience. up next, the how. how a record-breaking ad buy has backfired on jeb bush and his allies. stay tuned.
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advil pain relievers are used by more households than any other leading brand. to treat their aches and pains more people reach for advil. relief doesn't get any better than this. advil. well, if it's tuesday, we have a new hook at our weekly tracking of presidential ad spending. jeb bush and his allies have hit a new high. $50 million. that's right, 50 as in 5-0. includes $23 million in new hampshire and another $10 million that team bush has spent in iowa. a lot of that its super pac. and for the first time, trump is cracking the million dollar mark. so will jeb bush be the 21st century john connelly, betting big, but never getting -- connelly did get one delegate,
the most expensive delegate in republican history. hello to you all. $50 million, jeb bush, this is -- i mean, you know, it's astronomical and you're wondering, he may not ever win a delegate. >> i think there are two factors at work here. when you're pouring tons of money into an ad buy, it helps to be selling a product that people want to buy, and that was a huge impediment to jeb bush's team, dealing with republican primary voters, and number two, it helps to have a medium on which to sell your product. and the television airwaves have been dominated by donald trump. i think that was the second impediment, both of which have led to the bush team having a difficult time getting their message through. >> have tv ads mattered at all this cycle? as john kasich would say, for ten minutes they did. >> there are a couple of candidates, john kasich among
them, who vaulted themselves up it 2 or 3% to get into the first presidential radio ads. tv is so fragmented now that you can't really count on being able to find an actual voter in the iowa caucuses or the new hampshire primary, which are pretty small contests, anyway. but you can count on finding, especially republican primary voters, on things like rush limbaugh and sean hannity's radio programs. and you're seeing a lot of spending particularly by ted cruz on radio. take a look at where he's spending money in a state like iowa. it's almost all on -- i shouldn't say all, it's disproportionately on radio. i think we're kind of going back to the future a little bit. >> and radio's a different state and they're microtargeting. >> danielle, i want to go a larger picture. we are in a golden age of creativity in commercials, if you watch a geico ad or see whatever. there are just a ton -- lots of creativity in the world of tv advertising and every sector,
except presidential politics. how much of this has just been poor -- i'm sorry. i don't care if it's hillary clinton, if it's donald trump, it's been generic, cookie cutter spots. >> i think you're right. like, the creativity is lacking in the political sector, behind everything else, when it comes to tv. but i think you see some interesting things happening on social media and i think there are some interesting -- >> that's where the creativity is happening, right? >> exactly. but tv, for some reason, is still lacking, and i don't know why that is. but i do think you're right, that you are able to much better target your message to voters on radio, on social media. >> let's go to how this money is being spent, eliana. right now, all the money on tv is being spent to beat up a bunch of candidates that don't have any chance of winning a primary right now. it is sort of surreal that we are watching a campaign on the republican side where the two front runners are untouched on tv ad waves right now. what's going on? >> i would say, it appears the candidates have learned the lesson of the last election, where mitt romney emerged from the campaign with his bones
cracked by his opponents who introduced the attack that he was a crony -- a rich man who was out of touch with everybody else and they served it up right for obama. the same thing is happening this time. and i think, in the case of marco rubio, in particular, there's been sort of -- he was going after ted cruz, a front runner, before he was going after somebody like chris christie. he should have dealt with a chris christie, a john kasich, really first. and there's been candidates sort of getting ahead of themselves, strategically, in that regard. >> i want to get more into this, very quick. and we'll take a break and do this again. >> the problem is, you've got all of these candidates who are running pretty far behind, christie, kasich, fiorina, they're all going after new hampshire. they've sort of creeded iowa to ted cruz and donald trump. we see a little bit of marco rubio playing in iowa this week, but bottom line, you've got a traffic jam in new hampshire, and there's a wide-open lane in iowa.
somebody's got to go after anybody in iowa, and try to make a dent. >> and whoever -- well, we're going to get into this. i'll stick around and do a little tease. we'll do more on this. up next in the lid, we'll talk about that and let you know that the republicans pick their responder to the state of the union. the future running mate of the next republican presidential nominee, perhaps, nikki haley. governor of south carolina? we'll see how she does. we'll be right back. wildlife rescue workers open up a lot of dawn. tough on grease...yet gentle. dawn helps open... something even bigger. go to facebook.com, dawn saves wildlife.
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all right. it's time for the lid. reid, eliana, and daniella are back. very quickly, nikki haley, on paper, this seems like a brilliant choice by paul ryan. >> i wasn't surprised at all when i saw that today. >> isn't she the front-runner here for the vp pick, i think? already? >> i think it's -- >> never too early. >> -- before we see who the nominee is, but a republican who can speak to the party's ability to adapt to racial changes happening in the country. >> look, we put in all the obama administration responders here. not -- let's see, bobby jindal, already out of the presidential -- paul ryan's all right there as speaker. mitchell daniel is out of politics. marco rubio, still running there. and so far, johnny ernst and cathy mcmorris rodgers. the last three have been all right. >> when you're talking about the vice presidential nomination, the three names that come up all the time are nikki haley, suzanna martinez, the governor
of mexico, brian sandoval, the governor of nevada. martinez and sandoval are pro-choice. >> and martinez had a little party -- a little new year's eve celebration -- go google it, guys, and you'll figure it out. let's get back to our marco rubio story here a little bit. that is, what is his strategy? obviously, he wants to be the last guy standing of the establishment, but is it iowa? is it new hampshire? i feel like they're not quite sure what to do? >> this strikes me as "the register" road raudy giuliani qn of -- >> that's a bad thing to say. >> where is your first win? you've got to win somewhere. >> nevada, baby. >> well -- >> what happens in nevada, in this case, will stay in nevada. >> nevada, by the way, is getting the sort shrift. the candidates are starting to spend big in south carolina. almost nobody is spending in nevada. >> well, the lindsey graham exit, i think, sort of opened the south carolina floodgates. when you're watching this, are you -- is there any point in this where you say, donald trump might be a tougher fight for
hillary clinton than she may realize. >> um -- >> do you overestimate or underestimate? >> i never overestimate anything or anybody. i do think that there may be some people who are like hoping that donald trump is the nominee, but he's obviously tapping into something out there, and he's not your conventional politician, so your conventional responses to him are not going to work. >> i was just going to say, you're running against a new system. if it was like football, it's like, they're running a weird system here. they don't punt -- >> exactly. it would make me a little nervous. >> eliana, who should the establishment fear more at the top of the ticket, trump or cruise? >> i think trump would mean real trouble, but i have to say, they both pose roproblems. you know, ted cruz talks about these 4 million missing voters, and many people dispute that, but the 4 million blue-collar rust belt voters who stay home, i think trump is the person who might be able to bring them out to the polls. >> the best thing for the down ballot is if the party splinters and there are two candidates. yes, they may get that, but they
may possibly gain house and senate seats. >> we'll let you think about that over the break. reid, eliana, daniella, good to see you. sorry about your cavs last night. >> too soon. we'll be back tomorrow with "mtp daily." "with all due respect" starts right now. >> coming this election season, the final film in the wall street trilogy. >> the democratic presidential candidate says those banks have too much economic and political power over the nation. >> trading years in the senate. >> wall street is going to like me even less that. >> for the white house. >> the bankers are too big to chill. >> trading capitalism -- >> there is a war going on. >> for socialism. >> greed is not good. >> bernie sanders, jeff weaver, jane sanders and tad devine take on wall street. feel the burn.