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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  January 30, 2016 11:00am-3:01pm PST

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our coverage now just two days away from the iowa caucuses. this hour donald trump set to hit the stage in dubuque, iowa, for his first event of the day. we'll go there in a few minutes. and former president bill clinten taking the stage at this hour in iowa, for his wife, hillary clinton. let's get you set with the big picture donald trump arrived in iowa today as the front-runner, leading his nearest challenge senator ted cruz by seven points. the other republican candidates are holding events all over the state today. there are 16 events in total for the gop. some taking aim not just at one another but at hillary clinton as well. take a listen. >> they couldn't release all her e-mails, do you know why? you read this. because some of the e-mails are so sensitive, so classified that they can't release them. i can tell you this she thinks she's above the law. >> you can't come to any other conclusion other than she lied
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to us. just lied to us. she put our national security at risk for her convenience. >> the e-mail issue is resurfacing today in the wake of the state department's decision to withhold 22 of hillary clinton's e-mails. two days out bernie sanders and hillary clinton effectively neck and neck in the hawkeye state when you figure in the margin of error. clinton responded to the controversy in an nbc news interview. take a listen. >> this doesn't change anything about the fundamental facts. i never sent or received any e-mail marked classified. >> are you concerned that this withholding of the e-mails makes it so people's imaginations can run wild? what can you do to alleviate that? >> i'm really not concerned. because it's the same story that has been going on for months now. it's like benghazi, you know, republicans are going to continue to attack. there's no there there. >> bernie sanders, in the meantime, trying to pull off an
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upset urging his young supporters to turn out. >> we will win the caucus on monday night if there is a large voter turnout. we will lose the caucus on monday night if there is a low voter turnout. joining us now on the phone from iowa nbc's chris jansing who is headed from council bluff to des moines. good to have you with us. give us a sense, who are iowans really paying attention to on this saturday? >> it's fascinating, by the way, i just passed a sign for walnut, iowa, so for people who know the iowa geography, they'll snow exactly where i am this is about what we've always seen in iowa, as crazy as this campaign has been and as unpredictable and different there a couple of things that haven't changed. they want to be able to take a measure of each of these candidates and that's why -- take a look at some of the maps that we have of donald trump and cruz and clinton and sanders and
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some of the places that they're going to be today. there is an intensity in these final hours and the knowledge that these appearances can make a difference. the second thing that hasn't changed besides these voters wanting to see candidates face to face is that it's always been about turnout. it's going to be about turnout. everybody's watching the weather very closely. but who can motivate. and it's interesting as i'm just leaving a marco rubio event, what a lot of people said to me was that they needed the final sell. they were either on the fence and kind of leaning rubio or completely undecided. they mostly had narrowed it down to two or three people, and these kind of weekend events just 48 hours before people actually decide to go to the caucuses can change minds, can solidify views, can convince people who think that they know who they want to vote for in november to actually go to the caucus and support their candidate. so, one more point that i think
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is interesting, and i've been going to a lot of the republican events. here's where this e-mail controversy for hillary clinton comes into play on the republican side -- a lot of the people i talked to also are concerned about electability, who can go toe to toe with the democrat, and so as they look at this issue and it bothers a lot of the republicans, they're looking at which of their candidates do they think can drive this point home, keep this issue alive, and use it to their advantage to beat hillary clinton if she is indeed the nominee. >> all great points and just fascinating to think about how much could still be changing in the next less than 48 hours. chris jansing for us. thanks. >> thank you. donald trump will make his first campaign stop of the day, as we mentioned it's happening any moment now in dubuque iowa. katy tur is there following the action for us. have critics questioned at all whether trump supporters are going to come out?
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there's so much talk whether or not his numbers which he loves to talk about will actually translate to people going to caucus and cast their vote. what's the sense today? >> reporter: that is the big question, will these people actually turn up to their caucus sites. as it is with bernie sanders, the higher the voter turnout, the better donald trump will be doing according to polls. right now registration is 11% less for the gop than it was last cycle and that doesn't bode well. and the voters say they're going to caucus, they' know their caucus site. today donald trump is handing out voter registration sites to decide day of who they'll register for democrats or the gop and caucus for whomever they leak. and donald trump's campaign hopes that everyone showing up to the rallies waiting in the cold to get in will be ones to show up on monday night to do this. they're trying to emphasize how
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easy it is. they have a video out with ivanka saying this and the co-chair saying it's easy. it will only take an hour and that the ballot is secret. >> katy tur with the trump campaign in dubuque, iowa. thank you. as we mentioned donald trump set to arrive there shortly, hillary clinton is already at her event along with gabby giffords. let's take a listen -- >> a sense of mission, and when i think about what we have to do as our country, i think it does take courage and it takes a sense of mission, and we are so fortunate to have two people who can inspire us every single day because of who they are and what they stand for. what they have done in their lives and what they are doing. i really agree so much with them --
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that it is time, my friends, to stand up for commonsense gun safety measures, to stand up against the gun lobby, and to turn that into a voting issue. the other side does. and so even though the vast majority of americans and gun owners agree with gabby and mark's commonsense approach, they agree with moms demand action, they agree with gun sense voters agenda, they vote on many things. whereas those who oppose this mission that gabby and mark are leading, they vote only on one issue, and that is how they end up intimidating members of congress and others. the facts cry out for action.
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on average 90 people a day die from gun violence that's 33,000 people a year in our country. that's homicides, suicides, and tragic, avoidable accidents. and we've got to take action, because in addition to all those who are killed, there are many, many who are injured. i have met too many of these victims and their families. i have been in too many rooms where you are at a loss for words, taking the hand of a mother who sent her 6-year-old child off to elementary school and got the worst call any mother could ever get, that her child and others --
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>> hillary clinton there stumping at this point with two days to go until the iowa caucuses. as we saw when we dipped in there she was joined by gabby giffords and mark kelly, both supporting hillary clinton. she was talking about in her words commonsense gun reform and this is something that has come up today with "the new york times." announcing its presidential primary endorse menments this morning and the editorial side they endorsed hillary clinton calling her, quote, one of the most broadly and deeply qualified presidential candidates in modern history. on the republican side john kasich got the nod, the editorial board calling him the only plausible choice for republicans tired of extremism and inexperience on display in this race. joining us the director of georgetown's institute of policy and public service and former communications director of the dnc and kristen dalgren, good to
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have you with us. we heard in hillary clinton's stump speech she was giving there talk of gun reform. obvious choice, then, to have gabby giffords and mark kelly there. "the new york times" brought this up as well and i'm quoting, saying, mrs. clinton is a strong advocate of sensible and effective measures to combat the plague of firearms. what does the endorsement from "the times" editorial board actually translate to for hillary clinton? >> look, it's another tool that she can use and point to to reinforce her message. "the new york times" editorial was so on message for her and what she's been trying to communicate here in the final days, that it's a great tool for her to do that. if you're a democratic primary voter who doesn't care about qualifications, who doesn't care about experience, and you are one of the people who wants to just disrupt the system, it won't mean anything to you, but if you are one of the people on the fence and might be swayed by that argument, sure, it helps.
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these endorsements always help. are they the end all, be all, no? she received their endorsement last time and didn't win iowa. but for people it's another data point to look at. >> we can't talk about hillary clinton without talking about the e-mail issue, of course, the 22 e-mails which we are now told are top secret and can't be released. as chris jansing brought up a few moments ago, in many ways this is more a concern for the republicans and that they can nominate a candidate who will continue to keep this issue front and center. how effective could that messaging be? >> it's going to be extremely effective. i mean, hillary and i'm sure mo knows also that the clinton campaign has a trustability number and even among democrats that i talked to, that's the big thing that's out front is can they trust hillary clinton and are they willing to live through the drama again of the clintons.
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for the republicans, it makes for great campaign talk in iowa right now. it does throw a question mark p up. we'll see how it turns out. i suspect that the white house and joe biden know that nothing's going to happen to this or maybe joe biden would have gotten in the race a while back. i think there's serious allegations, i think that she'll overcome it as the clinton machine always has, but there's damage that's being done. to the "new york times" editorial, it helps hillary clinton raise more money. for john kasich, it's a huge question mark. "the new york times" isn't exactly the favorite reading document of base republicans in these primaries right now. >> does it help john kasich at all? >> it will help john raise money. i mean, the endorsements in new hampshire and the endorsements in iowa and some of the locals there have helped john kasich. i would tell you a "new york times" endorsement, if i was running a campaign against john
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kasich, i'd pull some things out of it and put it on a piece of mail. >> it's interesting because chris christie just did that, right? chris christie just literally in the last little bit sent out a press release highlighting "the new york times" endorsement of john kasich saying he's "the new york times" favorite republican. where i think it's helpful to kasich is there is still a competition, it appears, to be the establishment candidate within the republican party. you got trump and cruz out here on one end, and then you got everyone else, right? bush, rubio, christie, kasich, all trying to be that establishment alternative that can take these two guys down. that's a real battle, and new hampshire is where that battle seems to be playing out right now. if wall street republicans, if mainstream republicans see more endorsements like this rack up, yeah, it helps kasich with donors and maybe it helps him make the case he's the guy while everyone else is thinking it's
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rubio or christie, he's the guy. >> we're talking about iowa, but we're not talking about john kasich in iowa today. all interesting. we want to keep you with us and we'll check back with you later in the hour because so much more to talk about as we head into the final push for the caucuses, of course, on monday. up next we'll check in with our reporters covering the democratic candidates today ahead. life. but directv has been number one in customer satisfaction over cable for 15 years. we find our satisfaction elsewhere. the boy has his stick and hoop. the girl - her faceless doll. and you have your cabbages. and you...have your foot stomping. i sure do. (vo) don't be a settler. get rid of cable and upgrade to directv. call 1-800-directv. (two text tones) now? (text tone) excuse me. (phone tone) again? be right back. always running to the bathroom because your bladder is calling the shots? (text tone) you may have oab.
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hillary clinton is in ames, iowa, right now, where she's discussing gun reform at an event where she was endorsed and introduced by gabby giffords and her husband mark kelly also there. we have team coverage from the trail and casey hunt is out in cedar rapids, iowa, following sanders, and monica alba is in des moines, iowa. casey, first to you. sanders making the final push and sort of the closing message. has it changed at all? what's different with two days to go? >> reporter: good afternoon,
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well, one thing that's different and this is a little bit of the slice of the glamorous campaign life that many of the reporters following candidates end up doing. we've stopped for lunch in cedar rapids as we wait for senator sanders to make his next campaign stop here. he's, of course, making a very aggressive final push. he's making more than a dozen stops over the course of four days all across eastern iowa, which is a very important part of the state for democrats to hit in particular. and he's doing a combination of rural stops, places where he needs to run up the score a little bit, that broad support that we've talked about that maybe hillary clinton might otherwise have an advantage in getting. and then he's also going to hold a big rally in iowa city, that's, of course, where the university of iowa is located. they're going to do a concert with the band vampire weekend, really try to get those millennial voters, those students, those young people excited about getting out to caucus on monday. so, sanders is making his final argument. he's been less pointed over the
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course of the last 24 hours when it comes to hillary clinton, his opponent. instead, focusing largely on big companies like walmart, ge, talking about what he describes as a billionaire class that he feels has bought these elections, that, of course, is the argument that's gotten him this far and let's not forget when he first announced back in april there were people who called him a loon, people said he was crusty, there were all kind of pundits who didn't take him seriously. now, of course, just a day and a half away from the caucuses he's just within points of hillary clinton. >> a bit of a change, casey, i know one of the things he's going to be pushing home as well how important it is for voters to turn out that every single person, as we know, in iowa, especially when it comes to the way the democratic caucuses are set up. he is also speaking, i want to take a quick listen to this -- we may not -- oh, we do. do you know what, we don't have the sound, casey, but don't
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worry, because we'll be coming back to you throughout the day and hopefully you can get a little lunch at this point because the spots are few and far between and you have to make advantage when you can. >> reporter: you have to jump on it when you can, erika. >> you do. monica alba is in des moines. i believe you spoke earlier with hillary clinton. so much talk about these e-mails, i know she was weighing in with you. of course, that's also the endorsement from "the new york times." what is the main focus for the hillary clinton campaign on this saturday? >> reporter: well, erika, there's certainly a lot of attention on this e-mails issue, and as secretary clinton will tell you, she doesn't feel that voters are talking about that. she says that voters aren't concerned, they do not ask her about that, but it's clear that there are some questions remaining. in our conversation earlier today i asked her specifically about the content of these top secret e-mails and what she knew about them, the ones that are being withheld, she said she didn't know what they were.
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and when i asked her if she gentlem generated them, she flatly told me she did not. it's clear with two days to go to the caucuses there more focus on this, she's talking a lot about health care and her contracts with senator sanders at her events coming up later today, so she's trying to shift the focus and trying to make the point that this e-mail controversy in addition to the benghazi committee is all a republican attack and conspiracy to hurt her. so, she's pushing on that narrative. she said it's the exact same attacks we've seen over the last few months and there's really nothing new here. >> when we look at the polling we see how close she and bernie sanders are in iowa. with the endorsement from "the new york times" and with the endorsement with 28 black ministers with whom she met on wednesday, do either of these hold any sway over voters in the state of iowa? >> reporter: i think it's interesting to note that these
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endorsements may not carry as much weight as different endorsements here in iowa. "the des moines register" endorsement and we'll see in a couple hours when the des moi"t moines register" says, the things that are a bit more local and in state matter more to the voters. i think it doesn't hurt that she has these additional endorsements, i think the endorsements of gabby giffords on the ground here saying why she wants to vote for hillary clinton i think helps swa people. but the outside forces the voters that i talked to, those things aren't that important. what voters tell me all the time what really matters when they go up to her on the rope line and she talks to hthem and hears their concerns, that is what is important to them. while the endorsements don't hurt, i don't know how much of a factor they are making decisions before the caucuses. up next we're going to turn back over to the republican race. ted cruz campaigning earlier today in ames, iowa, he, of course, trying to catch up to donald trump who leads in polling in the hawkeye state.
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he may be competing as well, though, with another contender. we'll talk about that emerging break next. extraordinarily painful, i hear you. make sure your doctor hears you too! i hear you because i was there when my dad suffered with diabetic nerve pain. if you have diabetes and burning, shooting pain in your feet or hands, don't suffer in silence! step on up and ask your doctor about diabetic nerve pain. tell 'em cedric sent you.
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i've lost many friends who go to washington, i tell them the same thing, you turn out to be a weasel, i'm going to expose you. ted has not done that. he has done everything that he said he would. conservative broadcaster glenn beck there introducing ted cruz earlier today in ames, iowa. two campaign stops down and three more to go for cruz as he heads west across the state today. von, a lot of what we're seeing here in the polling is cruz starting to lose a little ground to rubio as rubio closes in here. how much is that a focus for ted cruz in these last couple of days? >> reporter: well, sure, i think the challenge for the cruz campaign is just the other night after the debate their own campaign manager is calling it a two-man rales but what the polls are showing is marco rubio is creeping in. 70% in the last polling three weeks ago, 70% was built among donald trump and ted cruz.
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suddenly what we're seeing, though, is the likes of marco rubio. ben carson and rand paul are still in this race and can they chip away enough support from ted cruz so he isn't able to surmount enough caucusgoers to overcome the ardent trump supporters that looks like obviously be turning out. >> iowa is important but it's the first of many contests coming up. how important at this point is the hawkeye state in the overall cruz plan? >> reporter: well, for ted cruz, this is -- this is his moment. this is a state where he should win. if you are going to win a state, this is the one really where you're targeting. a large evangelical vote and on the flip side it's a big test for donald trump. if he's able to win iowa, suddenly you can go into new hampshire with a robust feeling and if i was able to turn out at caucus, we can go to new hampshire and win there and south carolina. louie gohmert even said yesterday while introducing ted
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cruz if ted cruz were to lose iowa there are people saying it's over. really, it's a question. of course, the cruz campaign, they still have $20 million in the bank, if they do lose iowa, it's not over they have an organization after this. but it's a real test, if you lose to done always trump in iowa, if there was a state made for you, it will be a challenge to win beyond. >> it will be interesting to see. the last debate before the iowa caucuses proved to be a rough one for ted cruz. donald trump, of course, ducked that debate which made cruz the neat's number one target. >> the truth is, ted, throughout this campaign you've been willing to say or do anything in order to get votes. ted, you worked for george w. bush's campaign. you helped design george w. bush's immigration policy. now, you want to trump trump on immigration, but we're not going to beat hillary clinton with someone who is willing to say or do anything to win an election. >> cruz also drawing from boos thursday night when he tried to
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interrupt fox news moderator chris wallace. >> chris, i was mentioned in that question -- >> your name wasn't mentioned, ted. no, sir -- sir -- >> your question -- >> i think the question was -- it's not my question that you got a chance to respond to, it's his answer. you don't get 30 seconds to respond to me. >> your question was you have just agreed -- >> you just had 30 seconds -- i'd like to go on -- sir, i know you like to argue about the rules but we're going to conduct the debate. joining me now nbc senior political director mark murray who is in des moines today. nice to see you. when we look at the snippets from the debate and we've gone through it a lot in the last 24 hours or so, how much of an impact did that last debate have in iowa? >> i think it's true that ted cruz really didn't have a good debate. he was the one with the target on his back and even as that clip showed he was taking it from the audience and also the moderators. sometimes that's the situation
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when you are the front-runner. but as far as the impact the actual debate has, i think we've had an eternity since thursday as far as campaign activity, ted cruz, marco rubio and donald trump on the republican side are campaigning fast and furiously, so it does seem the thursday debate was such a long time ago. but for ted cruz specifically the last two or three weeks have been very rough with him. it all started with donald trump launching his birther attack on cruz and we saw the iowa governor pile on cruz when it came to the issue of ethanol and then he had this rough debate. maybe the good news for ted cruz he wasn't the only one who had a subpar debate performance, marco rubio while shining in the first part of the debate stumbled on the immigration part in the second half of that debate and so ted cruz can at least take solace he wasn't the only one that didn't perform usually to his standards. >> especially as these are increasingly really kind of in the same contest it seems just the two of them. nbc's mark murray, thanks for joining us.
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donald trump campaigning as we mentioned in iowa today. first stop dubuque, here's a live look where he's expected to arrive at any moment. trump as you know has been attracting large crowds. his campaign may also be attracting a large crowd to vote against him. we'll explain after this. i've smoked a lot and quit a lot, but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq.
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back now at 35 past the hour. these are live pictures out of dubuque, iowa, where those folks that you see on the bottom of your screen are anxiously awaiting the arrival of donald trump. this is where he will hold his first rally today. we want to go to nbc news campaign embed who will be spending the day with the trump campaign walking us through everything going on there. good afternoon. >> reporter: hey, erika, how are you? we're here waiting for donald trump in dubuque, iowa, and he's running a little bit late. he's supposed to be making a
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grand landing just like we saw him do in miesa, arizona a few weeks ago. there's no one waiting outside. one of his refrains is how many thousands of people can't get here but we won't have any of that today. it does really seem like dubuque is tapped out in terms of who is planning on coming out here for trump. now, we did see him carefully honing his precaucus pitch, we've got two days to go and it's something we've seen over the course of the past month really not only drawing the contrast with ted cruz which we've seen an escalation in that battle especially over ted cruz's citizenship and whether he's eligible to run for president as donald trump will put in people's minds. at the start, middle, and end of his speeches he tells people to be on the ground and get to the caucuses and we hear his team echoing the same thing, people
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telling them get out to caucus, get out to vote, this is so important. as trump likes to say, he tells them, i don't care what's happening in your personal life, but i need you to get out there and caucus for me. he doesn't just want to win but he wants to win decisively and he wants to really pick up a lot of momentum heading into new hampshire where he does, of course, have a decisive lead as well. >> everyone is waiting there for donald trump in dubuque, iowa. really important in iowa is getting new voters to turn out to the polls just ask barack obama how it worked for him. the key for any candidate, of course, is making sure when those voters do turn out, well, that they're voting for you. donald trump, though, is inspiring some immigration activists and latino voters to register new voters, in fact, to vote against donald trump. this week dozens of young latinos marched silently outside a trump event in marshall, iowa.
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in pivotal swing states like nevada, florida and colorado activists are also pushing naturalization and voter registration efforts trying to harness some growing anti-trump sentiment. we've seen more people this year that want to become citizens and specifically because they want to vote against trump. according to nbc news polling 69% of latinos have a negative view of donald trump. nationwide there are more eligible latino voters in 2016 than ever before, according to a recent study 27.3 million latinos will be eligible to vote this year a 17% increase since 2012. want to bring back our panel. as we look at these numbers, in terms of this push to register voters so that they can vote against donald trump, has that been a concern from the beginning for republicans? >> yeah, i don't -- i don't know
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if mo will agree with me, but in modern campaigning the only successful voter registration campaign get out the vote was barack obama and it was really, really good. it registered them, it chased them, it stayed on them. i think it's probably too late to put all that in place to make an impact in these primaries. it might could help in the general. but i don't see that dynamic going on right now that's going to impact anything we're talking about for the next six months. >> was that campaign more effective because in many ways it was a more positive campaign, you had all these people trying to get out the vote for a candidate as opposed to against a candidate? >> i think there are two points here, one i'll agree, this isn't going to have an impact in the primaries, right? there aren't going to be a lot of latino or hispanic voters registering to go caucus in a republican caucus in iowa on monday or in the new hampshire primary, that's not going to
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happen. but this actually could have an impact should donald trump be the nominee as it appears right now he at least is the odds-on favorite to be. there are two great motivating factors i think in politics -- one is hope and aspiration. that's what barack obama offered. that's why all these new people turned out to register and to vote. the other is fear. and the fear that you are under assault, and i think that is what donald trump is doing here. it wasn't that long ago when i was at the dnc when i was fielding questions all the time do democrats have an apathy problem with latinos, are latinos frustrated and staying home. with donald trump on the ticket, that problem for democrats goes away. latinos will not be apathetic, they will be fighting in their eyes for their lives, for their livelihoods and will turn out i think in record numbers to vote against him. >> what's your take on that? go ahead and weigh in. >> i agree. i agree with mo's assessment of that. this process is running --
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donald trump left one thing out on our side, where donald trump has tapped into -- i'm certainly not an advocate of the donald's, but what he's tapped into is an anger. the republican voters i talk to are new republican voters think that the politicians have lied to them. i get it time and time again. even if they don't really like him, they like what he's saying. he's different. he's new. he has -- he's the crowds he's drawing in south carolina, i've been doing this all my life and never seen anybody draw 5,000 people 5 days ago. so, it's a dynamic that's playing out. donald trump -- and i think mo and i have both had successes in iowa and failures in iowa. and iowa will be in the rear view mirror really, really quick and there will be a few good things that will happen to a few candidates, and then new hampshire's going to winnow the field and what donald trump has to do is have a fairly good-sized field coming into south carolina, because if he doesn't -- if the field narrows
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pretty quickly, then donald's 35% or 36% of really, really angry voters, and they're republicans, and they have a right to be angry, then he's going to be the winner. and if he wins south carolina, erika and mo, he'll go run the table and look at that nevada governor to be his vice presidential pick or at least on his short list. >> immigration is a very important topic and so some of those angry voters that you mentioned, some of them are fired up because of immigration and things that they like that they have heard from donald trump, but there's also another side monica raised dream iowa, spoke to msnbc, i feel he has used immigration as a strategic tool instead of looking at immigration as a humanitarian issue. honestly i feel that clinton would be just like president obama, her group endorsing martin o'malley. there's a lot of talk about immigration and how it could affect republican votes. but on the democratic side, is that something, as we look at
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immigrant votes also, you know, those of varying backgrounds, is this something that hillary clinton should be concerned about, mo? >> yeah, i don't think democrats out ought to take this for granted even with donald trump on the ticket. i think donald trump will be a huge gift to democrats in motivating the latino community. but the democratic nominee is going to have to address the concerns of hispanic and latino voters who are frustrated that the pace of immigration reform was not fast enough in the obama administration, right? i think president obama himself shares that frustration. but the ones who are frustrated that it hasn't moved fast enough, the next democratic nominee is going to have to allay their concerns, make the point i am going to move aggressively on this issue, and particularly look at who my opponent is. if it is donald trump, that contrast will be incredibly clear. i don't think democrats can take it for granted, but that is a nice contrast for them to set up. >> we are going to leave it there for now as we are getting
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tight on time, appreciate you both being with us. >> thank you. >> thank you. we will have much more on high iowa throughout the day including what no candidate can control and that could have an impact on who wins monday night. up next we'll have the latest on the new virus, health officials say it's spreading explosively. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ i'm mary ellen, and i quit smoking with chantix. i have smoked for thirty years and by taking chantix, i was able to quit in three months. and that was amazing. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. it absolutely reduced my urge to smoke.
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we will return to iowa in a minute, but first now a health crisis that is commanding global organization. the world health organization is holding a summit monday to talk about how to combat the zika virus. zika virus is believed to be linked to brazil's alarming rise
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in a severe birth defect that causes infants to be born with abnormally small heads and affect brain development. 31 cases of the zika virus have been seen in the united states and all had traveled to the infected areas outside of the country all as scientists in the uk are working on a new weapon to fight the zika virus. more mosquitos. >> reporter: we're here in the egg breeding lab of a company in the united kingdom which is using mosquitos to fight mosquitos. there are 12,000 of them in these 4 cages. this is the specific species of mosquito that spreads zika and dengue fever. these are not the same as in the wild, they are all genetically modified, they can't survive very long outside of this lab
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setting. what scientists are doing is they take the male of this modified mosquito and they release him in a problematic wild population where there's some sort of an outbreak and they breed with the females. >> there are actually 3 million mosquito eggs in this believe it or not. and we can ship these very easily around the world to different areas where we're treating -- treating the mosquito and trying to remove the mosquito with our technology. >> reporter: the offspring don't survive. they never make it into adulthood. and they've been able in studies to wipe out 90% or more of the specific problematic population of mosquito. just to give you an idea, the best mosquito eradication programs with chemicals can only get rid of best case 30% to 50% of a population. so, it's been hugely successful. it's already being used on a small scale in brazil. they're looking at scaling it up because of the zika virus and
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its spread and the fda is in the process of reviewing it for use in the united states. back to you. here now with more on the spread of the zika virus here in the u.s. and abroad, an infect, disease expert. doctor, good to have you with us. i want to touch on what kelly was educating us about. but first, for people at home there's a genuine concern because the mosquitos that can carry this disease have been found in the united states. is that a concern, though, that this zika virus is actually in the united states with those mosquitos? >> it's important to emphasize that we have not seen zika virus transmission here in the united states. the cases that we've seen are women or other people gone overseas and infected while overseas. we have a couple of things that put us at risk, we have mosquitos that can transmit the virus. the majority of americans live in air-conditioned housing, you have screens which protect you from mosquito exposure and we
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don't have standing water in the way that you do in there's countries where there's no safe running water and not good hygiene and sanitation. >> we tend to talk a lot about the impact on women when it comes to zika virus especially those pregnant or of childbearing age. can it be transmitted -- we got this question earlier on the "today" show can a man transmit this through sexual contact to a woman thereby increasing her risk? >> zika virus is by and large a mosquito-borne disease like malaria you get the disease because the mosquito bites you and transmits the virus. that said we know it can be transmitted through blood transfusions and there have been very rare cases where it's been transmitted from a man to a woman. we know it's detectable in the semen but that's not by and large how this virus is transmitted. >> so for women who may have traveled to some of these places or may be, first question for you, when it comes to a pregnant woman, is there a certain period within that pregnancy that she
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is more at risk and that her baby's essentially more at risk were she to be infected? >> we don't have a good answer to that. we don't know what proportion of women infected during pregnancy could get infected and when the key point is highest. we know the neural tube is forming and that's your central nervous system and brain early in pregnancy, so presumably that would be the highest risk periods but we don't know for sure. >> you were telling me in the break before we came on that you can't actually detect it until much later in the pregnancy, so there's a potential you wouldn't even know it's there. >> we can do testing in the lab to see if you've been exposed. those tests are not perfect and to do the ultrasound where you detect the actual birth defect, you don't see those changes until the third trimester of pregnancy and at that point it's really too late to opt for an abortion, so the testing that we're doing really has more to do with trying to understand the epidemic, but really advice i
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would give a woman of childbearing age don't travel to these areas if you're trying to get pregnant or if you're pregnant. >> if you don't have a choice and you have to go for work or a family emergency, when you return to the united states, "a," should you get tested and, "b," how long should you wait to try to conceive? >> again, we don't have a good answer in terms of how long to wait to connell sieceive. the data on how long it takes to develop immunity and to clear the virus seems to be in a wu weeks' time so i would guesstimate three to six months after exposure but we don't have hard science. >> we continue have a cure or a vaccine and it was discovered nearly 70 years ago. why don't we have a vaccine yet? >> we have hundreds of thousands of viruses out there and it's hard to predict which one is going to cause a problem among humans. we had, for example, ebola virus that created this huge epidemic in west africa and until that time we'd only seen sort of sporadic cases in very rural
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areas and people were asking why didn't we have a vaccine. it costs hundreds of millions of dollars, decades of research to bring a vaccine to market and so you're only going to do that with diseases that seem to be, you know, high risk. >> when you see something like we were introduced to, kelly said at the end it was 90% rate that they could wipe out the mosquito populations. does that sound like a sound, viable option? >> i think it could be a game changer not just for the zika virus but for a whole host of mosquito-borne illnesses, you have west nile and dengue and so on, the problem is we still have some regulatory hurdles to clear. there are some talks between officials in key west right now, florida keys, and the company that makes thee genetically modified mosquitos and it will require fda review and the public has a knee jerk reaction that anything janetgenetically
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modified is bad. >> with the world health organization meeting monday, what actually would come out of that? >> when we talk about declaring something as a public health emergency as we did we ebola, you have other measures taken, travel, what's necessary travel, for example, airlines stopped flying into west africa during that period. we have the olympics coming up in brazil and a lot of people are concerned about that, what are the implications for olympics. brazil has 6 million people who travel every year and the olympics is half a million, so it's not a huge -- you know, it's a drop in the bucket so to speak. >> appreciate you coming in today. thank you. a live look for you right now. we'll have it for you in a second. dubuque, iowa, donald trump's plane did just land. this is the first stop of the day for the gop front runner and as we're waiting for him to start the event there in dubuque, iowa, there's a question as to how the weather
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could impact the caucus turnout. there's a winter storm in the forecast but will it affect those caucuses? bonnie schneider joining us now with more. bonnie, good afternoon. >> i've, erika. it will be very close. it's not just a winter storm, it's a huge winter storm bringing snowfall by the foot in colorado and probably two feet in utah, so snow and ice not too far away in kansas. but let's take a closer look at iowa. when the caucus begins at 7:00 p.m., so far, so good. temperatures not that cold in the upper 30s to 40s. but notice the south, that snow will start to build in, into the evening hours, so by 10:00 in the evening when people might be heading home from the caucus, that's when you are likely to see light snow falling and getting heavier through the evening hours all the way to the overnight period and that's when the snow will start falling a lot more steadily. temperatures will drop and ames getting down to 29 degrees. and by tuesday we're looking at very heavy snow for iowa, so people trying to get out on tuesday they may have some trouble because we're going to be seeing a lot of snow and the
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models are still not completely in agreement. i can't exactly say how much we'll get but i can tell you it will be blowing and drifting snow, looking at the isobar lines they're very tightly packed together and expect poor visibility at times tuesday afternoon. by 12 hours, erika, i think we'll be okay with this storm. >> but it does mean we could see some folks stuck in iowa. bonnie, thanks. >> sure. we'll have much more from iowa coming up in the next few minutes and there's a look at donald trump's plane. we'll bring you to that event in dubuque, live. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?
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take tylenol or take aleve, the #1 recommended pain reliever by orthopedic doctors. just two aleve can keep pain away all day. back to the news. does printing from your tablet give you a jolt of confidence? then you might be gearcentric. right now, get this hp printer for 50% off! office depot officemax. gear up for great ®. good saturday afternoon. i'm erika hill, thanks for staying with us here on msnbc. we have this shot up for you because we're waiting for donald trump to make his way down to the podium in his event in dubuque, iowa, the plane arriving a few minutes ago. a hefty crowd assembled as we know from our campaign embed.
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she said there isn't anybody, though, waiting outside to get in. that has been a well-known talking point of donald trump's. he often talks about the people that were not able to get into the venue where he's holding an event, but on this day they have not seen anybody who couldn't get in, again, there's a strong crowd assembled there but an interesting point as you look at the last couple of days leading into the iowa caucuses, all cand it the, of course, doing they can to get out the vote. of those candidates the republican candidates very busy today. 16 events across iowa for the republicans. the latest polling shows donald trump still leading that pack. senator cruz is seven points behind. the candidates are not just taking aim at one another this go-round but they are also focusing on hillary clinton. take a listen -- >> they couldn't release all her e-mails. do you know why they couldn't release them? you read this. because some of the e-mails are so sensitive, so classified, that they can't release them. i can tell you this, she thinks she's above the law. >> listen, you can't come to any
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other conclusion that she lied to us. just lied to us. she put our national security at risk for her convenience. >> that e-mail issue resurfacing today. and now two days out as you can see, show you in just a second, bernie sanders and hillary clinton effectively neck in neck in the hawkeye state based on some of our recent polling. clinton was responding to the e-mail controversy in a discussion with nbc news. this is what she had to say. >> this doesn't change anything about the fundamental facts. i never sent or received an e-mail marked classified. >> are you concerned that the withholding of the e-mails can make people's imagination run wild? what can do you to alleviate that? >> i'm really not concerned. because it's the same story that's been going on for months now. it's like benghazi, you know, republicans will continue to attack. there's no there there. and in terms of attacks, a
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lot of people wondering what donald trump may potentially have to say about this today. there is donald trump speaking live in dubuque, iowa. let's take a listen. >> the united states has just ordered a $3 billion plane. $3 billion. do you think i could have made a better deal than that, huh? they're getting a new air force one. i didn't want to do it because if i did it, they would say, why are you doing that. and i actually held my power here. i held my fire. because i don't mind getting that plane but, you know, it does seem like an awful lot of money, doesn't it? 3 billion they're spending on air force one. but let's let them have it, right? let's let them have it. but that's what's going on. i guarantee we could do better. we could negotiate cheaper. it's time to get one because it's an old plane. when president obama flew from washington to hawaii, talking about -- remember the carbon footpri footprint, right? to play golf for two or three weeks, it's a long time.
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who wants to leave the white house for two or three weeks? he says obama. sure. and longer than that. and longer than that. so, look, so we talk a carbon footprint, right? so the carbon footprint, an old 747 with big, beautiful engines that are spewing, if you believe in that to start off with, right? now, the question is, do we believe in that. but that's the story. look, we have a chance to do something so great. make america great again, all these hats. make america great again. not to make bad deals but to only make great deals. we're losing on trade. we're losing with obamacare, which will be repealed and replaced, by the way. if you look at obamacare, right, you look at obamacare and you see what's going on, 25, 35, 45% increases in your premiums. 35%, 45%, 25% is somebody that
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got lucky, and then you look at -- i mean, deductibles, you have to die in order to use it. you have to die. you have to be in the hospital for the rest of your life in order to maybe use a little junk. the deductibles are so high that people don't get to use it. so, we're going to come out winners now, folks. we're going to start to win again. when was the last time we won? do we ever win? do we ever win? think of it as a country, we're like the big bully that gets beat up all the time. do we ever win? we don't win on trade, right? we don't win with the military. we certainly don't win with the military. we can't beat isis which is basically 30,000 people and we can't win. can you imagine general george patton saying we can't beat isis? i can't imagine. do you know what the generals say on talk shows -- generals go on talk shows. we want to show something special. we don't want generals talking about we'll do this and this and
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that and we'll attack from behind. what the hell do we have to talk so much? just do it, right? so bad. it's so bad. so, look, we're going to win with our military. we're going to win a lot. and hopefully we're not going to use it much. we're going to make our military so strong, so powerful that nobody is going to mess with us anymore. our military is going down from the standpoint we have older equipment, we're not replenishing, general ordierno said on a talk show -- he used the word preparedness. preparedness. we have never been so poorly prepared to fight. and maybe just about in our country's history this is when we have to be at least prepared. we don't want to have to do it, we don't want to do it, but we have to at least be prepared. remember one thing, and now i'm
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getting credit. they give me credit for vision. vision is very important. if you are running for president, you need vision. i said smaller. hit the oil. how many times have you seen it? take out the oil. they kept saying it's not a good strategy. really, why? that's where they got all their wealth. that's where isis got their wealth. they're also getting it, i tell you right now, from banking circuits, okay. i understand banking circuit. oh, do i understand banking circuit. the politicians don't understand. they don't have a clue. but they're getting a lot of money coming in from certain countries through the back corridors of the banking world. and i want to tell you they're getting a lot of money from that, so i'll shut that down so fast. they don't know how to shut it down. i know how to shut it down. but i've said for four years and most of you have been friends for a long time and i'm fans of yours equally, believe me, because we're all in this together. this is a movement. we're supposed to have 50 or 70 people. i was going to get off the plane and go and we have five or six stops and i see this kind of a
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crowd, we can't just leave you flat, we got to talk for a little while. by the way do we have any, like, young kids here, like, 10 years old? okay. let's do this. i have a little bit of an idea -- look at that handsome guy. why don't we put him over here and we'll let them -- but without their parents. we'll let them run through the plane. does that sound good? right? look, the parents are all upset. so, let's -- we'll get a little group together. we'll get some groups and we'll run them through. that's like the helicopter rides, remember? we had a lot of fun with the helicopter rides. we'll let the kids go run through the plane -- >> you've been watching donald trump there. stumping in dubuque, iowa, his first stop of the day. as he said he's got more to do, too, but he'll spend more time with the people there. he said this is a movement. joining us to talk more about the candidates as we move, of course, just 48 hours away from the iowa caucuses, penny lee and former executive director of the democratic governors association and here with me in the studio amy holmes
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of the blaze. i want to go to you first, amy, you and i were talking about it a little bit as we were listening to donald trump speaking. as soon as he started, you said he's having the time of his life. >> he is. i think there's a fun factor to political campaigns and how they can generate their own momentum and grow and generate more fans and followers and watching him right there on the tarmac, he's really engaging with his audience, talking to them directly. it's unscripted. you can even say stream of consciousness sort of hoching and skipping from one topic to the next but i think that's what a lot of voters really like about him and you hear it all the time, he's authentic and speaks his mind and tells it like he sees it. >> as we see in iowa any time of face time with the candidate is especially important in those two states. >> yes. >> is part of his appeal not just saying what he thinks and engaging, but is he also making that connection that's different from the other candidates? >> i think he is. he's giving them face time in iowa before the caucuses, but,
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of course, the big question is, can he actually organize this enthusiasm and get people to the caucus, into the political process. "time" magazine was at the fund-raiser thursday night and when he was speaking to the crowd he didn't give them instructions how to show up to vote for him and the people she was talking to said i don't know if i'm registered. donald trump as a political nove vims may not have put together the ground game to harness his supporters. we are hearing that from our reporters on the ground, he's beginning and middle and ending his speeches that he is focusing more on that, getting out their get out the vote. penny, when we look at what is happening with donald trump and we keep saying this, but it bears repeating, this has changed everything as we know it really when it comes to politics. is there an opportunity you think for the democrats to learn anything from donald trump and the way he has garnered the support? >> i guess we're going to wait
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and see on monday whether or not the results actually live up to the billing of what you're seeing constantly of him of his ways and how good he's doing at the polls and until we see the outcome and he's able to win iowa, we'll wait and see. maybe there are clues as to what a new winning campaign will be, but until that time we'll have to wait and see. as amies a alluding to the freeform and very engaging kind of ways but without that you still have to go back to the old school way of making sure that people on the ground know what they're supposed to do, that they're supposed to show up for the caucuses and do it in a way. so, you know, let's see if the rhetoric and the hype actually matches the reality. >> but what are -- what are you watching in terms of democrats? because when we look at the l e latest polling between bernie sanders and hillary clinton they are essentially neck in neck. do you see anything that will push one another in the coming days? >> we'll wait and see.
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i've spoken to those in the clinton campaign and they're confident, but they also know that bernie sanders is a formidable opponent. they knew that from day one when he got into the race, so they're not surprised by that. but they also were very confident in what their ground game has -- what they've been able to deploy so far. so, you know, it's still, you know, still a lot of hours left in the day. we saw, you know, someone like a rick santorum, you know, back in 2012, he was fifth going into this and actually came out the winner. so, there's still a lot of time. there's still a lot of phone calls to be made and a lot of activity to get done. >> a lot of work to happen in the next two days. we'll speak to both of you again later in the hour, penny lee and amy holmes. we want to shift gears to look at what the other candidates are up to at this hour. bernie sanders is traveling around iowa to make his closing arguments and he was out and about campaigning with cornel
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west. he was in manchester and rema remarking on martin luther king's legacy and making contrast between himself and hillary clinton and we could see more fireworks between sanders and clinton now that both campaigns have agreed to four more debates. casey hunt is in cedar rapids, iowa, where she is covering the campaign. what can you tell us more about the precaucus pitch that we're hearing from bernie sanders today? >> reporter: hey, erika, where we are on a slightly empty bernie sanders press bus. there are enough reporters that this bus is necessary. we've just taken a little bit of a break here. it's a new phase for the sanders campaign. it's one that feels a lot more like somebody who is a serious contender for the nomination. there's now a press pool. and like i said, several dozen reporters covering stops along the way. but sanders is making his closing argument across eastern iowa primarily which is, of course, a democratic stronghold, particularly for liberal activists, the kind of iowa voters that are most likely to
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turn out for bernie sanders were, so he's been doing some stops in rural towns this morning. he stopped in manchester, iowa, earlier today. those kind of places would typically be some places where you might think that hillary clinton would do better, so the sanders campaign is trying to make sure that they touch as many voters as they can in those areas. but he's also focussing a lot of energy on these college towns. we've talked so much about how young people tend to support sanders so he's going to do a rally later today in iowa city featuring a concert, featuring vampire weekend and, of course, iowa city the home of the university of iowa. so, a place where sanders really needs to run up the score. in these final days he is campaigning with cornel west who is, of course, an african-american professor who is helping him with potentially constituentsy that he needs to do a little bit of work with the african-american vote. but at this point, sanders still focusing on that core message that's brought him this far and that is, of course, wall street.
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>> all right. casey hunt for us on the campaign bus. and last time we talked to you were hopefully off to get some lunch so hopefully you got some, casey. hillary clinton. wrapping up an event in ames, iowa, where she was talking about gun violence. >> this is an important a challenge as i think we face here at home. and as mark said, the actions we can and should take can certainly be done consistent with the constitution and the rights of gun owners. that has never been in doubt unless you are a paid lobbyist for the gun lobby. >> in addition to that appearance with former congresswoman gabby giffords who you see there and her husband mark kelly who have endorsed clinton, she's also had to deal with her e-mails as secretary of state. 22 we're told were classified
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top secret and can't be released. i know you spoke to hillary clinton about this a little bit earlier today and asked her specifically about those e-mails. >> reporter: that's right, erika. i asked her exactly what is in these e-mails. and secretary clinton actually told me that she does not know. she does not know which specific e-mails have been withheld, but when i asked her if she had generated any of these e-mail chains, she told me flatly that she had not. so, the campaign is calling for these e-mails to be released. they are really blaming this on an interagency dispute. they want the e-mails out. they want to put this issue behind them, but clearly it's not with two days to go until the caucuses. so, when i asked secretary clinton also what she hopes voters take away from the new e-mail development, she said she thinks voters don't ask her about this and don't really care about it as much, so she's trying to really focus on the issues like gun control that she focused on today. >> what do ul think about people turning up at her events, because in iowa it can go down
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to the last minute, to influence or perhaps win or change a vote for candidates. are you seeing any difference in terms of the attendees at her event today? >> reporter: i would say the attendance at her events have been pretty steady. her events tend to be completely full and at capacity but in smaller venues than a bernie sanders or, of course, a donald trump event. at these more sort of intimate town hall settings where you have 300 or 4 00 people they tend to full up pretty well. in davenport they had a crowd of 1500 plus in a much bigger ballroom with a live band and that kind of thing, but she's focused on smaller events. she likes having these more intimate-type town halls and small meetings where she can speak to students or smaller constituencies. i think we're seeing a steady presence. she's doing events here regularly and i think maybe now she may ramp up and do slightly larger events.
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she'll be campaigning with bill clinton and chelsea clinton and i think we'll see a big turnout for that. >> monica, thank you. we expect ted cruz to appear in hamlin, iowa, in just a few minutes. this will be himself third campaign stop of the day. he's down seven points in the latest iowa poll so he's making the most of every minute and stop, von hilliard is following the cruz campaign and joins us from scranton. as cruz is trying to close the gap not only with donald trump but marco rubio, how are those efforts working for him on the ground? >> reporter: well, i think the top of the hour just showed us the difference. donald trump in dubuque. behind me, there were definitely not in dubuque. hamlin is a town of 252 people. why three days before caucus is ted cruz going to hamlin a place with 252 people? ted cruz has been on a journey to hit all 99 counties across iowa something only that mike huckabee or rick santorum have done otherwise but that's ted
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cruz trying to win the rural counties where donald trump is more focused on the more populated areas. this is the difference. and when it comes down to it every caucus and delegate and county matters. the way that ted cruz is doing this there's an 11-point swing over the last three weeks and what we saw him today and yesterday do is really drive home the story of who he is over the last two weeks he's gone on the attack against donald trump so after the two weeks of attacks we saw the polls flip. he's down by four in this poll, so really this is his opportunity to drill home the message of who he is while fending off the likes of marco rubio and the likes of ben carson. this is it. this is the ultimate ted cruz on the ground road trip. i'm waiting for the ted cruz bus to drive by. i think i have a couple more miles up on them. but this is -- >> if we have it, we might be having a little bit of trouble with your shot there. i'm not sure he's still with us. we lost von's shot. but we'll check in with him
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later. waiting for the cruz bus as he mentioned. retail politics may be the key to winning in iowa but not necessarily the party's nomination. that strategy helped barack obama get elected eight years ago and it may still be the key to this election. more savings on car insurance? yeah bro-fessor, and more. like renters insurance. more ways to save. nice, bro-tato chip. that's not all, bro-tein shake. geico has motorcycle and rv insurance, too. oh, that's a lot more. oh yeah, i'm all about more, teddy brosevelt. geico. expect great savings and a whole lot more. that reminds me... anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea... ...gas, bloating? yes! one phillips' colon health probiotic cap each day helps defend against occasional digestive issues. with three types of good bacteria. live the regular life. phillips'. different things his new smart phone does... ...it reminded him of his magic eraser. it's not just for marks on walls...
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most of the presidential field is crisscrossing the state of iowa this weekend meeting as many voters as possible before monday's caucus. it may be the digital media war being waged behind the scenes that could prove to be the key for victory and for more on that we're joined by msnbc's social media manager. good to see you. you're paying attention to not only what is on the social media accounts of these candidates but how they are using it. >> they're in the final sprint and they've been heavily targeting iowa caucusgoers in particular on social media. they're really trying to pull out all the stops and come up
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with every tactic they can to engage the voters. one thing hillary clinton released today is a video of bill clinton's closing argument and she posted it on twitter and facebook today his closing argument for her. it's getting a lot of shares. take a look. >> she is the best qualified person for this moment in history i've ever seen and i studied all my predecessors. the average person who gets elected president is intelligent, hard working and honestly tries to do what they say they're going to do when they get there. but there's a big difference in who can do and what can't. here's what i know about hillary, she's the single best change maker i've ever met in my life. >> this is getting a lot of engagement and she also had bill clinton take over her snapchat account yesterday as well and take people behind the scenes. he shared some fun facts about her. he shared moments on the campaign trail and she's leveraging bill on social media and leveraging his big following and his big fan base as well to
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get out there and reach the undecided voters on social. >> we're seeing it happen on both sides so it's kind of fascinating as we hear in the news business if you are talking on facebook clearly are old because younger voters don't care about facebook, the snapchats of the world. what has been most effective on either side in terms of engaging voters? >> you're right. snapchat has become a big thing in this election. many of the candidates are on it now and it's a great platform for targeting millennial voters but facebook and twitter are king in terms of reaching the broadest audience in particular, you know, all of the candidates have really had to master facebook as a platform, that's got the broadest swath of the population. most people are on facebook. snapchat and some of these more emerging platforms are great for reaching younger and sort of niche groups. they're great sort of for microtargeting, but facebook and
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twitter, especially facebook is really still the key core platform for reaching the broadest swath. >> and it's the most information to be posted you are not limited by 140 characters, whatever it may be. >> type of content, we're seeing a lot of the candidates produce slick videos much like hillary just posted. it's a much easier way to reach more people in different types of ways than they can on some of these other platforms. >> it will be interesting when we look back in november how they did. >> there may be a new platform by november. >> there may be, you'll know about it before i do, i know that. thanks so much. a live look at dubuque, iowa. donald trump, of course, we started the hour with him speaking there in dubuque, one of several campaign events for donald trump today across the hawkeye state. we'll have much for you from iowa after this. and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation,
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ever closer to moaned night's caucuses in iowa, candidates on both sides of the aisle the democrats and the republicans do their best to court undecided iowa voters. with caucus turnout in the
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hawkeye state unpredictable the sway candidates have with uncertain voters to their ads and speeches this weekend can really make a difference. we've been on the campaign trail speaking with iowa voters and we go to bernie sanders headquarters in des moines. i know you've been talking, jacob, with likely caucusgoers who are not sure at this point who they might vote for. >> reporter: yeah, you said notoriously unpredictable, i would go a step further and stay notoriously terrible turnout and some people might say it's because of the strange process and it's because some have been inundated with campaign ads. i visited with an undecided couple to find out for myself what it is like to get completely buried in caucus television. >> here's your mail. >> reporter: this is ridiculous. this is over, what, weeks and weeks? >> oh, no. two days. >> this is just two days. >> reporter: come on. >> that's when i was told to
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start saving them. >> reporter: come on. >> this one from marco. ted cruz. we got one huckabee. >> reporter: donald. >> bernie sent me a letter. >> reporter: ben carson. >> ben. ben with the hands. >> reporter: one day do they expect me to get one of these things this is the one. >> this is doing it for me. >> reporter: does direct mail like this make a difference to you? >> no. >> reporter: not at all. >> i think they try to keep connecting with people. we get a lot of calls. i try to answer maybe every other one. >> reporter: if they call while we're here, we got to pick it up. >> let's do it. >> reporter: this is your local nbc affiliate. >> yes. this is the local nbc affiliate, and every commercial will be political with the exception of one or two for the whole program. turn it up. >> there he is. i didn't think he was going to get traction. >> reporter: donald trump. >> yeah. >> hillary had jamie lee curtis. >> reporter: she was in town. yeah. i think she was in town yesterday or today. here we go, we're getting ready
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for commercials. there we go. first one. >> i'm donald trump and i approved this message. >> donald. >> sounded like you wanted the bill to pass. >> of course, i wanted the bill to pass. >> to me it was pretty effective at hitting -- >> oh, my gosh, have you ever seen anybody better? i'll tell you coming from a sales and marketing background in my opinion donald trump is the best salesman -- >> reporter: genius marketer, right? >> genius marketer. >> america is broken and they are pouring in and you get images of rats coming through the house or something and build the wall. >> and mexico is going to pay for it. >> reporter: should we do hillary there? >> i want to go to bat for them every single day. get incomes rising, get equal pay for women. cut the cost of health care and child care. >> nailed it all. >> reporter: she nailed it, huh? >> in my opinion. >> i'm hillary clinton and i
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approved this message. >> reporter: she has what it takes to get things done a hillary clinton ad paid for by her. >> she didn't tear down america. she didn't tear down bernie. she didn't tear down anybody else. >> when you come away you know what she's going to do. >> yeah. >> not how you shouldn't like the other guy. >> marco rubio ran for senate owe posing amnesty and then he broke his promise. >> i guess jeb, you know, has been going after marco from the beginning and maybe because they're both from florida and they saw themselves as being similar. >> reporter: right. >> yeah, they -- i mean, marco's getting it left and right. >> reporter: bernie. >> one tenth of 1% owns almost as much wealth as the bottom 90%. >> this is where he taps into anger. >> reporter: is the that good or bad? >> it doesn't move me, but it moves a lot of people. well, at least bernie, you know, will show you what it would be to be a socialist.
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he will show you -- >> reporter: it sounds like you guy are being independents leaning republican kind of like the democratic ads and the merits of them beingered ining . >> they're a lot more issue oriented. >> i found this go around the republicans have been spending more time tearing each other apart and tearing the democrats apart than presenting their own message. >> reporter: just an ad game, is it fair to say you think that the democrats are winning in terms of actually just the quality advertising? >> hands down. and maybe that's all -- >> reporter: maybe it's the campaign calling. >> if it is. yes, it is, it's for you. >> reporter: put her on speaker. put it on speaker. hello, this is jay. >> live tell-free telephone town hall meeting with rick santorum. >> reporter: rick santorum. >> i got one on the answering machine and town halls and the guys are doing the town halls. >> reporter: does that drive you nuts? >> no. not really. >> a little bit.
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>> we expect it. it's iowa. >> reporter: $70 million have been spent, those are latest numbers on television ads here in iowa for the caucus, $7.4 million by bernie sanders and he's going to be going out and canvassing door to door to win over the undecided voters. back to you, erika. >> i love that piece, jacob, fantastic. thank you. young voters may decide who wins monday night. up next we'll be joined by two of them, one democrat and one republican, to talk to us about who they'll be supporting in their very first iowa caucuses. and trained as a nurse. but i couldn't bear my diabetic nerve pain any longer. so i talked to my doctor and he prescribed lyrica. nerve damage from diabetes causes diabetic nerve pain. lyrica is fda approved to treat this pain. lyrica may cause serious allergic reactions or suicidal thoughts or actions. tell your doctor right away if you have these,
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where's my football team? get over here football team. what a team. what a team. and they were so nice they endorsed trump. they like trump and i like them. >> donald trump there accepting an endorsement from the university of iowa football team this week at an event on the
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school's campus. the team members gave the candidate his own jersey during a meeting backstage as trump tries to solidify his supporters among new voters. and he is leading among first-time caucusgoers and on the democratic side the first-time caucusgoers support bernie sanders and their opinion won't count unless they go to the caucus and vote, historically they are much harder to turn out on caucus night. this year in iowa there is an added challenge because for the first time since 2004 the caucuses will be taking place when students are on campus instead of back at home on their winter break, so even if students do turn out their votes will be concentrated to just a few caucus sites near campuses. when they vote at home their votes tend to be more scattered statewide. the sanders campaign is encouraging, in fact, to return home for caucus even helping to arrange travel to boost bernie's
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standings in those areas. great to have you with us. gina, i want to start with you, because we saw that event from earlier in the week from the university of iowa with the football team. how did you feel about that endorsement for donald trump? >> it was definitely unexpected. i'm sure that the football players all love him as everyone saw. but definitely unexpected for sure. >> does that speak for as we mentioned you're from the university of iowa college republicans, do you think that football team's endorsement of donald trump, does that speak for many of the young republicans that you encounter every day at school? >> you know, it was actually surprising. i do not believe so at all. you actually hear a bunch of variety and donald trump is surprisingly not one of them. >> interesting to hear, ben, you are at drake university. you are with the college democrats there. is there a sense that on your campus voters are leaning toward either bernie sanders or hillary clinton or maybe martin o'malley? >> i think on our campus, while
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we are a small campus, it's not necessary to say we are representative of iowa as a state, but we just held a mock caucus a few days ago and i know that you all probably covered it slightly. and we have a lot of undecided voters. right now as young iowans we're really being -- we're being pursued, so we're constantly being asked what we think, being challenged, different candidates are kind of catering to us right now. what we saw in the mock caucus was we saw bernie sanders and martin o'malley take the majority of the delegates and actually hillary was struggling to be viable at that smaller event which is really interesting, so i think a lot of our students are giving martin o'malley a chance as well as bernie sanders and trying to think critically through the whole process. >> i know you said you were leaning toward supporting bernie, but the way the iowa caucuses work in iowa, you need to have a second choice ready.
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would the second choice be hillary clinton or martin o'malley? >> that's one of the beauty of the caucuses. i have done research on martin o'malley and i acknowledge hillary's shortcomings. it's kind of how i ended up a bernie supporter. but what i will say, that's the beauty of the caucuses, that's a decision i can make at the moment as people make their case and as people perform democracy really. so, i could see myself supporting either. i'd like to support a viable candidate in my first caucus so if i'm a room and it's martin o'malley, that's what i'll plan for. if it's hillary, it will be hillary. but i'll generally be voting democrat. >> this is the first time for you both to caucus. as you head into the caucus, gina, on monday night as ben said you are all sort of being pursued and we hear that a lot in iowa, candidates going after you. what do you want to hear from a candidate? what would get your vote? >> what would get my vote is somebody that definitely shows
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leadership and definitely exposes american exceptionalism which i think is being lost today. i definitely support marco rubio for sure because he definitely is the epitome of american exceptionalism and what it means to be an american for sure. >> and are you finding that a number of your fellow college students at the university of iowa, republican and democratic, do they look for the same things in a candidate? is there one overarching need that young voters seem to have or one issue that is most important to them, gina? >> right. so, i think one of the main issues for sure is definitely minimum wage. i think any issue that voters encounter is something economic. you see, you know, the decline of jobs and stuff and i think millennials definitely worry about that the most. >> gina, ben, good to have both of you with us. really appreciate your perspectives. thank you for being with us. good luck and have fun monday night. >> thank you very much. >> it's been great. we'll continue our coverage of the iowa caucuses in just a moment.
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for now, though, we do want to turn our attention to the water crisis in flint, michigan, it actually got worse this weekend if you can imagine. there are new water test results which show lead concentration levels still at sky high levels and ten times more than the accepted levels and far more than the filters in place can handle. there's question as to when the governor first knew there was a problem with lead contamination in the city's water supply. "the detroit free press" says that workers were provided with safe water in the office. and amid calls for hess resignation governor schneider extended the state of emergency for flint. in oil and until april and he s replacing the damaged pipes is not in his short-term plans. they safe may cost upwards $787 million to get all of those
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pipes replaced. joining us now flint resident dr. paula mcgee, good to have you with us. it's tough for a lot of folks to imagine this getting any worse. when we see some of these numbers coming out today, what are people saying in flint? >> i think people are really upset in flint because these are hardworking people, we're people of dignity and i want to say i've only been there -- i moved back about two years, so i'm not one of the voices. i haven't been a foot soldier. there are a lot of people coming in at this time and taking credit, but people are angry. these are taxpaying people and they expect to be treated with a certain amount of respect and dignity. some people have been on the ground fighting from the very beginning with the emergency manager and the governor appointed the emergency manager. the emergency manager made bad decisions and that emergency manager is now in detroit making the same mistakes. so, we don't understand why governor schneider is still leading michigan when the citizens have said he can't handle this job, so why isn't
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there an emergency manager for governor schneider? why hasn't he re-signed and he's still in place? it seems the people are not being heard in the city of flexibility. >> you say the people have not been heard. i understand you were at msnbc's rach rachel mad do ydow, and when yok about these things and you ask about why things aren't being done. what sought rt of answers are y getting? >> we are getting the same answers. the governor had a press conference and i went down because i live downtown. it was a closed press conference. even some of the councilmen didn't know. but every press person was there from five miles away across the country was invited. we do not want to be just another sound bite. these are people. we have elderly people who have worked their entire lives in flint, michigan, and now they're scrambling to try to get a case of water. this is unacceptable and this
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$28 million band aid will not suffice. how about $28 billion? because when aig and wall street got in trouble, there was money available. so, we didn't create this mess. and the republicans have been saying they don't want big government, well, big government made this mess, so we don't want big government, so we're tired of the governor. we want real money. how about $28 billion so we can clean up all of the mess that we didn't create. >> this has gotten so much attention especially over the last few weeks obviously it didn't just start then but there's much more attention nationally. has any of that attention you believe changed things or perhaps put any wheels in motion in flint to get some of these things that you need? >> let me just say to rachel that we are so thankful that she has been on top of this and she came to flint. the citizens absolutely love her. she invited governor schneider, no governor. we've got celebrities that are sending water. we want you to send resources.
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we want you to call every political person, every civic leader, every person that you have power with and tell them to come to flint and come on the ground. we are not criminals. you will not get shot. you will not get jacked. we are people that have been fighting this fight for a long time, and the people of flint are tired. they are tired of being treated as if they are not american citizens. it seems that in this country if you're white and you have money and you're a ceo, then you can do and say anything and everybody is okay. but if you are muslim, if you are from syria, if you are a person of color, if you are a woman, then suddenly there is no help for you. there's no money available. your voice is not being heard. and we don't believe that that's what democracy's about. we don't believe that's what america is about. so, this isn't a crisis. this is a call for america to be america. >> it is a call to action. are you hopeful? paula, today, that things will happen? >> i'm hopeful because this is flint, michigan.
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this is the home of the first labor strike. this is the home of community education. this is the home that has produced more star athletes than probably any other city in the country. so, we are flintstones. we may get beat down, but we will not run scared and we're not going anywhere and flint will rise again. >> paula mcgee, we appreciate you joining us today. we appreciate your time. thank you. >> thank you so much. still to come the continuing coverage of the iowa caucuses and the candidates' closing arguments before the first vote of 2016. could quit. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. chantix reduced my urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse or of seizures. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it.
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we will win the caucus on monday night if there is a large voter turnout. we will lose the caucus on monday night if there is a low voter turnout. >> senator bernie sanders there earlier today at a rally in
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manchester, iowa. he is one of many presidential hopefuls stumping across the hawkeye state today. it is all about those last-ditch closing arguments before monday's caucuses. joining us to talk more about what we should expect as the ks candidates move into the final stretch, penny lee, former senior advisor to harry reid and former executive director of the democrat governors association. also with me in studio, amy holmes of the blaze, also former speechwriter for bill fritz. alex, i want to start with you. give us the big picture here. over 48 hours to go until those caucuses. what can we expect? >> yeah, well, the things that i'm looking at, two in favor of hillary clinton and one in favor of bernie sanders when you're talking with those macro trends. the one thing in favor of bernie sanders, we've heard a lot about it but it's really true, is the enthusiasm. everybody i talked to at a bernie sanders event will bring out their parents, their brother, their sister, their
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cousin. they'll make sure those people come to caucus. you don't have that on the clinton side. that said, what clinton has going in her favor is that her supporters are much more reliable when it comes to turnout. we're talking about an election at that is way below even normal turnout. something like 6% to 8% of the entire population of the state. the other thing she has going for her is geography. it's a little complicated but the way the iowa caucuses work, because they're not a primary, you've got to get delegates, and delegates are concentrated in a certain way so if you have a wide distribution of support, bernie sanders supporters are bunched up in college towns and major cities so that i think will help hillary clinton rack up the delegates. >> amy, when we talk about the enthusiasm for bernie sanders, inevitably the enthusiasm for donald trump ends up in the same sentence. what are you expecting in these last two days? >> absolutely. earlier we were talking about the fun factor that motivates people to turn out for their candidate. the question is will donald
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trump have that infrastructure. just two hours ago i got an e-mail from ted cruz, his top rival, talking about last-minute campaign pitches to the voters. he said very frankly in this e-mail trying to raise money, quote, the latest polling shows that donald's attacks against me are swaying voters. you can expect donald trump to step up those attacks. you heard him talking about ted cruz being an anchor baby in canada. apparently that pitch is actually working for some of those republican voters who didn't know ted cruz was born in canada and are concerned about it. expect it to get a little nastier and uglier as monday approaches. >> you talk about the nastiness on the republican side. woe saw a report with jacob who sat down with an undecided couple and how they're inundated with information and ads. as they watch some of the ads, one of the things they pointed out to him was they noted the nastiness of the republican ads and the more sort of factual, here's what i would do nature of the democratic ads. does that seem to be working?
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>> yeah, i think it's a character of both of them, both bernie and hillary. bernie made it a point, we saw that repeatedly in the debate. we're not going to get into the other issues, e-mails and other things, we want to stay on substance. so this is what this debate has been about. it really has been less on the personality. you don't have that flamboyant kind of insulting everybody that you have on the republican side where it's all about the personality and not about the actual policies of what they're going to do. so yes, we are seeing that over and over again. but i think that it's going to be -- any time you can have an enthusiasm to engage the conversation, i think on both sides, the american politics is working and the system is working to be able to have everybody engaged in such a level. >> you have so many more candidates on the republican side than you do on the democratic side. it's interesting to see how they try to winnow it down. we are out of time so we'll have
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to leave it there, i appreciate you all being with us. thanks to all of you at home for watching. our coverage to the countdown to the iowa caucuses continues after this. we will go live to the campaign trail where candidates are making their final cases to iowans before they caucus on monday night. i'll see you a little bit later on nbc nightly news. y! prilosec otc. one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn.
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hello, i'm chris jansing and we are live in demois moines, i. the rush is on by nearly a dozen candidates. they are trying to shore up last-minute support. among them hillary clinton, bernie sanders, donald trump, jeb bush, marco rubio, all of them are holding events this hour alone. right now we're awaiting the former secretary of state to
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take the stage for a get out to the caucus event in carroll, iowa. she's been running late today. donald trump is back in the hawkeye state speaking at a rally within the last hour. let's take a quick take first of what we've heard so far during the day. >> we have a chance to do something so great, make america great again. all these hats, make america great again. not to make bad deals, but to only make great deals. we're losing on trade, we're losing with obamacare, which will be repealed. >> you're not going to win by insulting the disabled. you're not going to win by insulting women. you're not going to win by staying p.o.w.s were losers because they got caught. shame on donald trump. >> we will win the caucus on monday night if there is a large voter turnout. we will lose the caucus on monday night if there is a low voter turnout. >> i thank you, because i have
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learned a lot. i am convinced i'm a better candidate but i really believe i will be a better president because of what you have shared with me. so please go out and stand up for me on monday night. and if you do, i will stand up and fight for you for the next four years. >> so at this hour hillary clinton is set to make her second of three stops in iowa today, and we are going to bring you some of her remarks live from this get out the caucus event. wee also going to take you to a donald trump rally expected this hour. let's start with kristen welker, making her way to cedar rapids, iowa, and is on the phone right now. kristen, i've been out on the republican side for the last few days here. there's a real intensity and you get the feeling everybody knows what's at stake here. give us a sense of what it's like with hillary clinton, who knows so well what it's like to be disappointed in iowa. >> well, chris, i think you put that very well, there is a real intensity. as you rightfully point out,
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secretary clinton lost in iowa in 2008. her hopes for the presidency really were dashed here. so not only from that perspective does she want to win, but she really needs a win here in iowa to get this nominating contest off on the right foot for her. if she were to lose here in iowa and new hampshire, that would be pretty devastating to her campaign, so it is all hands on deck here and we are heading to cedar rapids, as you said, where she is going to be with the former president bill clinton and daughter, chelsea. it's a family affair. they're pulling out all the stops in these final hours. by the way, they're also ramping up their ground game, secretary clinton and bernie sanders out with their teams on the ground, knocking on doors, pounding the pavement, urging people to get out and caucus on monday. now, of course this all comes on the heels of the revelation yesterday that the state department withheld 22 documents
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saying that they are classified as top secret. it's the first time they have ever done that, chris. secretary clinton today reiterating that she has never sent or received e-mails that were marked as classified at the time and call on the state department to release those 22 e-mails. this is politically problematic for secretary clinton coming so close to the iowa caucuses. we've been talking to voters, asking them if it will make a difference. they're really largely divided, although most of her supporters don't think it's going to make a difference. they think the folks that are going to caucus for secretary clinton will do so. she's picked up two endorsements today, one from "the new york times" and second endorsement from 28 african-american ministers. she met with them earlier this week in philadelphia and now they're coming out to endorse her. it is down to the wire here in iowa for the democrats. chris. >> kristen welker is on the trail for us. thank you, kristen. bernie sanders meantime started
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the day at new hampshire but he is at his second iowa event of the day in waverly. kasie hunt has been following the sanders campaign and she joins us now from cedar rapids. kasie, give us a little sense of what you're feeling out there and what's the reaction been to this latest e-mail controversy? >> reporter: chris, i have to tell you this bus that we're on doesn't represent the energy we have been feeling at the sanders event the last couple of days. this is the press bus. we've taken a quick stop as there are enough reporters following the sanders campaign to merit all of these seats, or at least a good number of them. that of course is a change and reflects just how close this election has become. of course our new nbc news/marist poll showing hillary clinton and bernie sanders within the margin of error aaie you can feel that on the sanders campaign trail. he seems to be having a really good time, which as you know having covered many of these
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campaigns over the years is the sign of a campaign that is on the upswing. they know that they have to put in the hard work that it's going to take to try to get this over the line. i think we have a map that we can show you of what senator sanders has been up to today and this is just one day of a four-day bus tour where he's made over a dozen stops. these stops throughout eastern iowa, which is a democratic stronghold, it's a place if you're on the more liberal progressive side of the party you want to spend a lot of time and that's where senator sanders is right now. this morning we did some rural areas. those are places where the thinking goes that hillary clinton might be stronger, so they want to make sure that they put him there to give him as best a shot as possible at getting out some of that broader turnout we've talked a lot about. tonight he's going to end up in iowa city, which is all about exciting those younger voters, millennials, college students, to actually get out and show up for the caucus on monday. there's going to be a big
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concert with vampire weekend. his aides and staff have put in a lot of energy and focus on that big rally tonight. so that's going to cap it off before he heads back to des moines ahead of the caucuses, chris. >> we have some quick sound we want to play from bernie sanders. let's take a listen from him a little earlier today. oh, we don't have that sound. let me ask you really quickly, look, everybody is going to present their best face right now. but if there's something that the sanders campaign is really worried about that they think might turn things against them over the next 48 hours, what is it, kasie? >> reporter: chris, i'm not sure that they're worried anything will dramatically turn against him. i think we've seen the clinton campaign and sanders campaign settle into a rhythm. this e-mail story could potentially benefit the sanders campaign. they have not seized on that. you'll remember in the first democratic debate sanders saying that he doesn't think americans want to hear anymore about,
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quote, those damn e-mails and he's continuing to stay away from that on the trail. at this point they both know it's just a question of how hard they work and whether or not their supporters are willing to show up. the reality for the sanders campaign is when this first started, they were really -- people really discounted him. people did not take his candidate seriously r. there were people that called him a loon. some said he says he's 75 but looks 91. he said don't underestimate me. that's the same advice, don't underestimate me going into monday. >> kasie hunt, thank you very much. we want to talk about all of this, get the lay of the land of where we are right now in iowa, so joining me in des moines, "washington post" columnist, e.j. dionne and j. newton small. a funny line about bernie sanders. e.j. and i go way back to our
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time in albany, new york, and i used to cover him because vermont and massachusetts were part of our coverage area. who would have thought back then 20 years ago, e.j., that bernie sanders would not just be running for president but would be where he is right now. what do you make of where he is right now, where the democratic candidates are. >> well, he sure doesn't look 91. i think one of the fascinating things is i think the oldest candidate in the field is the candidate of young people. the crowds are young, the volunteers who are pouring in here are young. i don't think you're correct in your question, i don't think either of us would have expected bernie sanders to run for president but that he would be getting the kind of support he's getting. when you talk around to people who know iowa historically or have been looking at a lot of polls, this is the race that could actually keep us up very late or into the next day. >> they really believe that, don't they? >> i think you hear that pretty
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much from both sides kind of indirectly, if you will. and i think that the big question is hillary clinton does much better among people who have caucused before. so bernie sanders acting as pundit at the beginning of the show saying high turnout helps him, lower turnout helps hillary, i think that's exactly right. >> you just came from a hillary event and you said she shoe horned in an additional event. what are you seeing on that side of the fence? >> this morning she was an hour and 15 minutes late to her first event because she went to an african-american festival where she gave impromptu remarks with her daughter, chelsea. and then surprised the audience at the first event by bringing in astronaut mark kelly and gabby giffords, the congresswoman who had been shot. she delivered this very set speech before every town hall that she does or every event that she has. this morning she made additional
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remarks with mark kelly and gabby giffords really saying the distinction between her and bernie sanders is guns. she's so passionate about this and she felt like it was life or death that people caucus for her because it would mean literally costing people lives, that she would be better preventing guns from getting on the streets than bernie was. she's trying to make this very dramatic distinction between her and bernie sanders on specific policy fronts. it's almost wonky the way she's making these arguments. it's very different from '07 when i covered her. her criticisms of obama were so much more tonal. she and obama had a lot more in common. they were like 99% on the same page back then. this time around, she's really saying on a policy level, like it's not personal, it's just a simple policy level. here's why i'd bow the better president and kind of almost very, very wonky, a very distinct way of doing it. >> we were both at that event and she gave a really passionate
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speech about guns. she didn't mention bernie. it was all by implication. >> gabby giffords was there? >> yeah, and they both spoke, mark kelly and gabby giffords. and you really had a sense that she felt that for some of the more liberal voters who she might lose to bernie, this is an issue where she could pull back a few at the end. so the whole beginning of her speech was this passion that called for people who care about gun control actually vote on gun control. >> let's talk about the republicans as well. wow, this race has been all over the place. but you can tell a lot by the places that they're going. for example, you have ted cruz -- kind of like you talked about the split, jay, with going after the people who are first-time caucus goers versus the experienced caucus goers. cruz is going after experience. you see some of the others who are counting on first-time caucus goers. >> trump. >> trump to be energized.
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where's that going to end up. >> some are predicting 250,000 voter turnout on monday. i don't -- that would be stunning. i mean that would be bringing in all new voters, people who have never caucused before into the system. i'm not sure we're going to see that, especially on the trump side. i went to a trump rally, sort of anti-campaign or anti-debate rally that he had on thursday night, right, instead of going to the debate -- >> the veterans fund-raiser. >> and at that veterans fund-raiser, i sat in the crowd instead of the press area and i had six people around me, six trump supporters. in fact none of them are going to caucus for him. two of them, you know, were from out of state, one of them didn't know where their caucus sites were, didn't know what to do, they weren't sure, they were there really for the entertainment. and so it was striking to me that nobody in that -- of his staff was organizing them. no one was handing out cards, no one was getting their addresses. >> couldn't be more different than cruz, for example. >> and cruz, a couple of
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interesting things are going on. there's clearly at least a mini rubio surge going on. >> let me talk about that for just a second. i'm going to hold you on that because i was at the rubio event in council bluffs. what strikes me is a lot of this expectations game. this unwieldy beast where everybody is trying to set expectations. but especially those who are challenging, look, want to see a way in. let me play for you what i heard him say just a few hours ago in council bluffs. >> you want to help us in this campaign, in the last 48 hours, we always need more volunteers. if you're willing to give us an hour of your time, we'd be graceful. please sign up. if you want to come in to caucus, please sign up because we need to stay in touch with you for the next 48 hours. >> is rubio going to surprise, who's going to surprise, that's what a lot of people are saying. every single campaign i talked to on debate night, all of them said we're waiting for a surprise, although not many of them could say what it's going
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to be. it's just that kind of year. >> and iowa does surprise because the caucus turnout is really low. even the best polling can easily get it wrong. that last pitch from rubio is interesting because he is not organized here to the degree that cruz is. cruz has the traditional ev evangelical organizations who have won the last two caucuses for rick santorum and before that mike huckabee. but you accepsense a little bit air going out from cruz. the tale about rubio being on the move is that cruz has shifted his negative advertising to hit rubio. he's got an ad that calls him a republican obama, which for republicaning is about t republicanings -- republicans is the nastiest thing you can say about something. i've heard rumors that trump is coming down. i'm not sure that he's lost his core supporters. and you're right, we have no idea whether those folks are
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going to show up, whether he's coming down. but his negatives went up with other kinds of voters by skipping that debate. so maybe his people stick with him and then will they vote. but he doesn't have much room for growth. so there's a cruz/rubio contest going on that's really interesting. >> there's another rumor out there that somebody is going to have a book on the best-seller list, "the new york times" best-seller list. >> "why the right went wrong." it goes on a week from tomorrow. thank you for saying that. >> jay, you've got a book as well. >> thank you. it's called "broad influence, how women are changing the way america works." it looks at women reaching critical masses in different corners of the workforce, but also particularly in politics. i have an interview with hillary, with carly fiorina. >> that's an awesome title. >> thank you. >> and it's a whole other segment, but it's great to have two great political minds on with me to kick off this hour. coming up next, we'll talk about the face-off between donald trump and senator ted
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cruz and the impact of trump's absence at the last debate. we just touched on that a little bit. all that, though, we probably won't know the effect of it until monday night. katrina pierson with the trump campaign will join me next to discuss the front-runner's game plan. we'll be right back. attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in the hudson valley, with world class biotech. and on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov (is committed to truth on thee plabel.d when we say real meat is the first ingredient, it is number one. and we leave out corn, wheat and soy. learn more at beyondpetfood.com text mom. i'll be right back. be good. boys have been really good today. send.
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i'll tell you what, this is the beginning, this is now crunch time. this is it. this is what it's all about, so we have to get out there and caucus and do all of the things that we have to do or we've all wasted our time, folks, we've all wasted our time. >> that was trump earlier today. he was speaking at a rally in dubuque. coming up he's scheduled to take the stage at a middle school in the town of clinton. joining me now with more on the trump campaign strategy, katrina pierson. she is the national spokesperson for the donald trump campaign. it's great to have you here. thanks for coming. >> great to be here. >> i don't know if you've had a chance to overhear our previous conversation. i have to say it's been my
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experience too at the trump events i've been to, there is a lot of enthusiasm. people are excited to see donald trump. but when i talk to a lot of them, who are first-time caucus goers, they seem confused about where to go, if they're going to go. they like him but they're not sure what's going to be on their agenda on monday night. frankly, how worried are you? >> we're not worried at all. we get flooded with phone calls with those directions, which is why the trump campaign was the first to put out on the website, donaldjtrump.com a caucus finder. there is a video to show you what to expect, how long it's expected to take, where your caucus is. so we have taken out all the stops to help these new caucus goers get to the caucus and vote for mr. trump. >> that assumes that they're going to go online, right? that assumes that some of the older, frankly more dependable caucus goers may not be used to using that. what about the ground game, because one of the questions that has been raised is that ted cruz has a ground game in place
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that's strong. i just saw marco rubio. he was talking about the number of people that he has in every single precinct. what's your ground game answer to that? >> well, one thing for the caucus is when they call the office, they can also walk them through the process, they don't have to go online but we also have a ground game. we have chuck loudner who helped rick santorum last time. we have folks in every single precinct as well and we are so excited because we are very confident we're going to win on monday. the broad case of support -- >> do you have to win? when you talk about the expectations game, which matters in politics. >> it does. >> the expectations are that he's in the lead. >> yes. >> and in spite of the challenge from cruz, he needs to win. do you feel that way? >> i think he wants the win and i think we will win. whether or not it will hurt politically if mr. trump doesn't win, i don't think that's going to be an issue here. mr. trump has put his heart and soul into this campaign and it's very important for him to win. he loves the people and loves the people in this country and
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so we're fighting to win in iowa. >> let's talk about something that the cruz campaign manager, jeff rose, said. his organization figured that are 9,131 iowans choosing between cruz and trump. that's a pretty high number given the number of people expected to turn out. 2800 plus choosing between cruz and rubio, another 3200 almost deciding between cruz and ben carson. and he says, quote, we know the votes that we need, we know the names, their addresses, their e-mails. do you, first of all, agree with those numbers? and to beat ted cruz, what has to happen? >> well, i don't know cruz's campaign numbers. i'm sure as you read them they are quite factual. but what i will say is there's a reason why senator cruz's campaign has turned their fire from donald trump to marco rubio. the only reason they would do that is if donald trump was so far away from him and he's fighting for second place. we have seen even nationally that the fight right now is between marco rubio and ted cruz when it comes to second place.
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i'm sure that mr. cruz has a very good ground game out there. it's been talked about for a very long time. i know his ground game in the state of texas. i will say that mr. trump has so much more when it comes to the passion of his supporters, when it comes to people that are supporting his policies on securing the immigration. just endorsed by sheriff joe arpaio and i think a lot of that is important to iowa voters. >> sheriff joe arpaio is a controversial figure. >> yes, he is. in the round of immigration, thae that's right. >> and you tout him -- that's another question that's been raised, that a number of the people who have come out in support of him are people that frankly are controversial, who have said things that could be considered inappropriate, even more serious than that. so i'm just curious why you would bring up, for example, the name of joe arpaio. >> it's an immigration issue. donald trump is the leader on illegal immigration and we're hearing from the cruz campaign
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on the trail he's for amnesty and that's just not the case. these endorsements also show this broad range of support which is inside the republican base, which is what makes us so confident. >> finally, new hampshire is coming up next. tell us a little bit about your strategy there. will it change significantly depending on the margin? in other words, a lot of people aren't just looking at he's first, he's second, he's third, but how close they are. >> right. well, i will say that new hampshire is a very separate state. the people in the state are much different than iowa and mr. trump has had a significant lead in new hampshire for a very long time. we do have a strong team and strong ground game in new hampshire as well. after iowa, we're going to head to new hampshire and camp out there and solidify our lead. >> you're going to camp out there? >> that's right. >> you're going to stay there between -- >> after iowa, that's right. we're going to solidify our lead. mr. trump is so excited and so passionate about this country and the people feel it. >> katrina pierson, thank you for coming in. >> good to be here. >> she's got the good job, she's
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staying in des moines the next couple of days. next jeb bush will take the stage in cedar falls and we'll have that live. and why the campaign looks to be looking ahead to the next contest, which is new hampshire. so many candidates are out on the trail, so stick with us right here on msnbc. lost shipments, international regulations, security breaches, lost revenue lost respect. well crafted solutions for today's problems in commerce. pitney bowes, the craftsmen of commerce. could protect you from diabetes?
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we are live in des moines, iowa. hello, i'm chris jansing. boy, is the final push on right now ahead of monday's caucuses. take a look at this live shot from carroll, iowa. hillary clinton is about to take the stage. we're also expecting to hear from donald trump, marco rubio and jeb bush all coming up very soon. jeb bush is expected at an event in cedar falls at this hour. but when the iowa caucus results roll out monday evening, the former florida governor will already be in new hampshire. he's going to be holding a town hall there. nbc campaign embed jordan frazier is out with the bush campaign. interesting decision, jordan of the let's talk a little bit about why he's going to head to new hampshire so early. >> reporter: yeah, absolutely,
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chris. i think it is an interesting decision. i don't think it is a surprise decision by any means. new hampshire is the state where the bush campaign has put much of their focus for months now. the governor spends more time in that state than any of the other early voting states and it's where he has the largest ground operation as far as offices and paid staffers as well. so i think, you know, it's a reality that there was not really a great chance that jeb bush would be in the very top spot coming out of iowa, so it makes sense that the campaign will move to new hampshire where they think their chances are a little bit better. >> do they have any sense of it matters at all where they finish here? again, we've been talking about this expectations game and how far you are from the top, or do they just sort of look at this like he was never going to play well with evangelical christians, perhaps, and his best shot always was going to be new hampshire? >> reporter: right. the governor for weeks has said that he hopes to beat
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expectations. what those expectations exactly are he hasn't said. it's clear that his goal is to beat the other governors in the race. i think really especially in the final arguments that he's making to voters this weekend, he sees this contest in two camps. everybody else and then the pack of governors. so i think if he comes out on top of all those other governors like chris christie and john kasich, then he will consider it a success in iowa. >> yeah, interesting that kasich got the endorsement of "the new york times" today. we'll talk about that a little later. jordan frasier out with the bush campaign has he has been for months now. thank you so much, jordan. now let me bring in mark murray who's been closely tracking all the polling out of iowa. good to see you shall mark. good afternoon. >> good afternoon, chris. >> with the beautiful dome of the state capitol behind you. let's take the lay of the land at least in terms of the polls. where does the race stand right now? >> you know, chris, we have two fascinating contests on both the democratic and republican side.
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this is my fourth iowa caucus cycle to cover. this is the first one where you have competitive contests both on the republican and democratic side. and the polling right now shows that donald trump for the most part has edged ahead of ted cruz in the republican race. in the democratic race most of the polling has hillary clinton with a very small lead, although within the margin of error. i think our nbc/wall street journal marist poll has hillary clinton up 3 points over bernie sanders and on the republican side donald trump over 7 on ted cruz. >> we always talk about the importance of turnout. we have already several times in this hour. talk to us about who that might favor and who it might hurt. what do we know about this electorate? >> yeah. so there's been a really important trend in all the polling. the polls that show a very big turnout seem to benefit bernie sanders and donald trump. that should come as no surprise because their paths to victory is on bringing so many more
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people to the polls, to caucus that we haven't seen in past cycles. on the other hand, hillary clinton and ted cruz are benefitting when you look at a more traditional type of turnout. chris, for example, on the democratic side in 2008 when barack obama, john edwards, hillary clinton, joe biden were all competing there was a turnout with 240,000. most people don't think you're going to hit that number this time around, but getting close to 240,000, even close to 200,000 would be very good news for the bernie sanders campaign. >> a little later this evening, speaking of polls, the "des moines register's" final poll comes out before the caucus. what are you going to be looking for, mark? >> first of all, look at the overall horse race. this has been a very predictive poll on what could end up happening. it nailed what would happen in the 2008 caucus on the democratic side. it nailed it in 2014.
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we'll see where the republican and democratic races stand. on the republican side i'm going to be looking at where the second and third place jockeying between ted cruz and marco rubio, if in fact donald trump is ahead. the distance and separation between those two. is ted cruz going to be solid and really almost competing with donald trump for second place or is the battle between marco rubio and ted cruz really, really close. it's important to not only look at who's ahead but who's running second and third in that republican race. >> you know so much about polling and you talk to our pollsters all the time. when you look across the republicans and democrats and see the new people being brought into, at least to the process to see the candidate by both bernie sanders and donald trump, does that make it harder to get an accurate read from these polls? could this be the year that it's not a strong predictor? >> yeah, chris, there's always black swan events where all of a sudden the polling has even been wrong. i think back to the new
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hampshire race on the democratic side in 2008 when all the polling suggested that barack obama was going to win the new hampshire primary and hillary clinton ended up winning. that was your rare type of event. but to me when you're looking at polling, what separates a great poll from an average one is being able to nail the turnout. that is almost the secret sauce in any great poll. what the des moines register/bloomberg poll has done time and time again is to nail who they are expecting, either a whole host of new people or a traditional -- so far ann selzer has the indication she doesn't think there's going to be a significant number of new people who will participate. it will be fascinating to see what her poll shows. it's coming out at 5:45 local time here in iowa shall, 6:45 o east coast. >> thanks so much. the thing that happens in des moines, you can be standing outside doing a live shot and
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suddenly somebody will drive by and roll down their window and start shouting. yesterday i was outside and the bernie bus went by. so i'm going to be joined by two bernie sanders supporters and we'll see what they think the keys to victory are for their candidate. that's coming up right after a break. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? whose long dayis sheldon setting up the news starts with minor arthritis pain and a choice. take tylenol or take aleve, the #1 recommended pain reliever by orthopedic doctors. just two aleve can keep pain away all day. back to the news. igoing to clean betteran electthan a manual. was he said sure...but don't get just any one.
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sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. a live look right now, carroll, iowa, where any minute now, we keep saying any minute now, hillary clinton is expected to take the stage for a get out to caucus event. pretty much all of the events for all the candidates have been running a little bit behind today which shows you kind of how they want to be in there and press the flesh and don't want to leave before people are ready to let them go so things get behind. i want to bring in two supporters of bernie sanders. i mentioned just a few minutes ago, i was out doing live shots not far from here yesterday. the bernie bus went by and you came over to talk to us.
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winnie, you created the #feeltheburn and you've been going around to support bernie sanders across the state. it's very interesting that we're waiting for this "des moines register" poll and one of the things we're getting as an early indication is they don't think that a lot of first-time caucus goers are going to come out. your candidate has said he needs them to come out. what are you seeing, what are you hearing? >> well, i mean we've traveled across the state for the past ten days now. what we're seeing is a lot of very enthusiastic first-time voters, a lot of young people who are really energized by bernie and, you know, by the movement as a whole. i think that they're going to caucus. i think they're going to commit and show up. >> driven by social media in large part. >> driven by social media and also driven by their desire for change. >> there is this whole talk of change and that obviously is what has fueled donald trump as well.
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nurses, national nurses are for bernie. what do you see when you go out there and are you worried that this enthusiasm won't translate to people actually getting out of their living rooms and going to the caucus site on monday night, especially if there's a little intimidation that people feel if they don't really know what it means to caucus? >> i would say the people that we've spoken to are totally committed. so no, i'm not worried about them showing up. we will take measures, of course, to get out to caucus. but the people that say to us why they support bernie are able to articulate it and you can tell when you talk to a person. >> so what do they tell you? >> they, like we, believe in medicare for all. we like -- they call him a very moral man. everything on his platform has a moral component to it. they like his authenticity. they like that he doesn't seem to waffle, depending on who is in the room. and they just think he's very sincere. >> talk a little bit more about what you have been doing, and we should say to be fair, you're
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not from iowa, so sometimes there's this sense that if you're not an iowan, it's hard to affect people to get them to the polls, but what kinds of things are going on in this get out the caucus effort? >> some of the trips that i've been doing along with some of the folks that are riding with us on the bus is really like creating very conscious media and distributing it on social media throughout the platform, like bernie's platform. like we are going around to the rallies, we're speaking to students, we're asking them why they're excited about bernie sanders. we visited a farm in iowa, we talked to farmers. we interviewed a farmer to see why he was excited. so we're really capturing stories and sharing those stories widely across the net. and i think that people are resonating with those stories.
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>> jean, you've been doing this and you know the political landscape. you know how this works. what's going to make the difference on monday night? where do you see it, step back from being a bernie supporter, knowing what you know about how iowa works and get out works what's going to be the difference? >> the difference is what we see in our volunteers. there's always the weather component. >> and there's a big storm coming in and the timing could change a little bit. they said it looks okay for monday night? >> they said perhaps tuesday night. i can tell you we've talked to a myriad number of people, some of whom are registered republicans that have said we are going to caucus with the democrats this year because, number one, we want a man who actually we believe in his issues and his stance on them and, number two, he will be a person who can get elected. >> you don't think hillary can get elected? >> i think everybody assumes that hillary is the most likely
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candidate to get elected. but i think they need to look at the what you were calling enthusiasm. these people are dedicated to what bernie is standing for. our nurses certainly aren't going to give up. >> winnie, what got you to create this hash tag and how did this become a full-time thing for you. >> well, i'm a long-time organizer and i've been involved with various social justice campaigns since the late '90s. you know, bernie sanders is my candidate. his politics and my politics are aligned, and his vision for america is my vision for america. i think that over the last three years, you've really seen the rise in social media and i wanted to see if this hash tag could actually effectively carry the narrative -- >> how many times in a given day
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is this appearing on twitter? >> it's not just twitter. h hash tag carries across facebook, tumblr, instagram, and i think it's probably contributed to the name recognition, certainly among younger voters, millennial voters. i see it everywhere all the time. that doesn't really affect my ability to continuing the organizing that i'm committed to doing. >> winnie and jean, it's great of you both to come over and good luck to you monday night. thank you so much. they have got a lot to do between now and then. here in iowa, caucus goers have heard the pitches but what issues will sway their decisions. a man who knows a thing or two about the caucuses will join us next. as we go to break, one iowan works to decide between trump and rubio. >> tired of being pushed around. weecht to regain our standing in
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the world. you know, let's be realistic about where we're headed in the future. >> and how do you think trump is going to -- >> i don't know that. that's why i'm here. to target and help block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to my symptoms. in clinical trials, most adults saw 75% skin clearance. and the majority were clear or almost clear in just 4 months. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. ask your dermatologist about humira. because with humira clearer skin is possible.
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so what a big weekend this is right ahead of the caucuses. look at these four events that we are waiting to get under way. hillary clinton in carroll, iowa, jeb bush in cedar falls. he's going early to new hampshire. donald trump is in clinton, iowa, and then bill clinton is scheduled to start a little later. i'd like to bring in msnbc political reporter alex seitz-wald. he joins me from des moines, just across from where i'm sitting. so let's first talk about how
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surprising it is that we are where we are right now. bernie sanders has all this enthusiasm, donald trump has all this enthusiasm, nobody would have predicted a year ago we would be anywhere like we are now. you've been on the ground all this time. give me your sense of the lay of the land right now, alex. >> yeah, chris. it really is hard to overstate how unpredictable this race has been. i remember just a little over a year ago we were all talking about how it was going to be hillary clinton and jeb bush. it was going to be two families again. here we are with bernie sanders and donald trump, a lot of people thinking they are going to win the critical iowa caucuses. for both of them, this is really the most important series of the race. it is for everyone, but especially these guys. if trump puts iowa away, he heads into new hampshire with a huge lead and he's on a glide path to the nomination at that point. for bernie sanders, he has no right to be winning iowa, at least that's what we would have
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thought a couple of months ago. if he wins in iowa, he has another big lead in new hampshire and it will make hillary clinton on her back foot. she's not going to turn to the general election as early as she would like to have and she'll have a long, drawn-out slug of a fight all the way to the democratic convention in philadelphia. >> there's also an unknown factor which is passion. you don't talk to any supporter on any campaign or any of the candidates for that matter who doesn't talk about feeling the passion we just had the person on who started that feel the burn hash tag. everywhere you go they say but we have the most passionate supporters which can't be true. you haven't followed one campaign, you've been to so many campaigns. do you see a big difference when you go from event to event to event? >> absolutely. you really see it on the democratic side. it's so true. pretsy much everyone i talk to at a bernie sanders events are they're not just going to caucus themselves, they're going to
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bring their sister and co-worker and classmate. they're going to bring everyone out. hillary clinton supporters, they're excited, they're going to caucus. they're more reliable caucus goers but it's a much more subdued tone. they talk about her experience, they talk about her readiness, they talk about how they want a woman in the white house, but it's not the same fervor that you get on the side of bernie sanders. that said, her coalition, the people who are actually going to likely turn out on monday are much more reliable caucus goers, so if you had to choose one over the other, you might go with the slightly less enthusiastic, but more reliable caucus goers. >> she's already looking ahead to other states and has this vast network of highly trained operatives, experienced operatives. she's got operations all set in place and has for some time. i wonder if iowa and new hampshire, look, she wants to win. does she need to win or does he just have to hang in there no matter what because she does have the operation, she has the money. is it more important for bernie
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sanders than for her to win iowa? >> look, she is the strongest potential nominee candidate that we have seen probably in recent memory. she locked in the entire establishment support of the democratic party. the party basically cleared the field with her so she can withstand a loss in iowa and new hampshire. she moves on to south carolina where she has a 40-point lead. she moves on to nevada where she's likely to do well and the key ones being the super tuesday, march 1st dates. those are largely concentrated in the south. in places where she can run up the total. she does much better among minorities than bernie sanders. for her, she can withstand it. for bernie sanders, no one thought he had a chance. the fact that he made it this far is impressive but he really needs to win iowa or new hampshire or ideally both if he's going to have appear actual, real viable shot at the nomination. >> besides the obvious, which is turnout, what else are you going to be looking for on monday
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night, alex? >> there's a couple of things that fever each side. we talked about bernie sanders' enthusiasm, that's huge, and hillary clinton's reliability of her caucus goers. they tend to vote in higher numbers. the other key thing to look at, remember, this is a caucus, not a primary. so they're talking about delegates, not votes. delegates are preassigned at individual precincts or caucuses. so it doesn't matter how many people you actually turnpike out, it matters whether you women or not. with bernie sanders with all of his supporters bunched up in the university towns and big cities, he can have enormous unprecedented turnout in these little corners but he's only going to get so many delegates. if clinton with a much more diffuse support all across the state, if he can get her people there and pick off some delegates in the west and a few more in the middle, she can end up winning this thing even if he has the more enthusiastic, bigger amount of supporters.
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>> i was talking earlier to e.j. dionne, who you know well, and he was saying and several people have told me if they think there's something that's going to keep us up well into the night, it may actually be the democratic side. what's your sense on the ground, could it be that close? >> i think it definitely could. you talk to both campaigns, you talk to pollsters and strategists and you get a very mixed prediction. there's not a unified consensus at all about who's going to win or who's strongly favored here. i think probably clinton has a slight edge based on the factors we talked about but the enthusiasm is really hard to predict. in 2008 hillary clinton's campaign hit almost all of their targets. they said they needed to get x number of people to the caucuses and they did. but barack obama with that enthusiasm just totally swamped them. got higher levels than anybody expected and he ended up not just winning but absolutely dominating in a way nobody saw coming. that's the great thing about
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elections, you just never know until the people actually turn out. >> i keep saying this is our super bowl, and boy is it. alex seitz-wald thanks for being with us. we're watching five different events for you, all of them running behind. we are expecting to hear from hillary clinton, bill clinton, donald trump, jeb bush, marco rubio as the candidates blanket the state of iowa. we're following it all for you live from des moines. stay with us. ght under this tre. ♪ (man) some things are worth holding onto. they're hugging the tree. (man) that's why we got a subaru. or was it that tree? (man) the twenty-sixteen subaru outback. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. no matter what nasty cold symptoms you get, alka seltzer plus liquid gels rush liquid fast relief to your tough cold symptoms.
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>> they came up, why would you wish that on him. we talked about they don't have a president, they have a king, a prime minister. i said if they did, it would be bernie sanders. my point is we can't elect a socialist as president and we can't elect hillary clinton. hillary clinton was asked earlier this week in iowa a couple of days ago, they asked her what do you think about nominating barack obama to the supreme court. she said what a wonderful idea. i never heard that. can you imagine? this guy violates the constitution like it's part of his job description as president. and we're going to put him on the supreme court to interpret and apply it? so we cannot lose this election. so i'm here today to ask you to caucus for me on monday because
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i am the conservative that will beat hillary clinton or bernie sanders, and they know it. they know it. that's why they spent so much time attacking me. hillary clinton does not want to run against me. i cannot wait to run against hillary clinton. >> marco rubio, and he's making a point we're hearing a lot from the republicans right now. it's the electability argument. they're saying you make me your nominee, i'm the person who can go out there and i can beat hillary clinton. i can beat bernie sanders. in fact let me play some sound from bernie sanders who was at a campaign stop in waverly, iowa, just a short time ago. >> i resent very much and i will not accept people distorting my record. there's an ad on television right now which suggests that bernie sanders is attacking planned parenthood. i have a 100% lifetime voting record for planned parenthood.
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>> i want to bring in kasie hunt, who's following the sanders campaign in these last hours before the caucuses. she is on the bus where now he has enough people in the press following him, they obviously are out and about. kasie, it's interesting, listening to that and listening to him, give me a little sense because you know sort of who he is and how he is. do you sense sort of a different dynamic now? do you sense an intensity, a nervousness? plain what you're feeling from that campaign as these final hours tick down. >> you know, i have to say, chris, and forgive us, we are waiting to head to the next stop so we are on the sanders bus here. he as a candidate, it's very clear that he's having quite a bit of fun, if you will. hereto a certain extent the people around him never expected to be here. they're finally at the point after months and months of fighting for it that the media are covering him in numbers
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great enough to warrant this many seats. and i think you can really sense from him that he's finally at a point where he's really enjoying it. as we know, he's got a reputation for having an irascible personality, not necessarily always taking things well, being very abrupt of his announcement of course was about ten minutes long. he said i can take a couple questions but i've got to get back to the senate real fast. i think they're very much past that point. they are farther along in this process, neck in neck with hillary clinton. that said, they are starting to feel the heat from the clinton campaign for that reason. you heard that from bernie sanders in that clip that you just played. he is legitimately angry about that particular ad that the clinton campaign is airing where they talk about planned parenthood. he made some comments to our own rachel maddow saying that the leadership of that organization by endorsing her was part of the democratic establishment that he's running against. clinton's campaign immediately seizing on that. clinton relying on women voters to carry her over the finish
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line and bernie sanders trying to protect what support he does have among women voters in the democratic party. but i will tell you, you can look at the maps for where clinton and sanders are campaigning to get a sense of what both of them need to do. sanders is out here in eastern iowa, we're in cedar rapids. he's been hitting places like this. he's going to hit iowa city, a big college town later in the day. he's also hit some rural areas. you heard alex seitz-wald talking about how important it is for bernie sanders if he's going to win to rack up some totals in these smaller precincts and areas. that said, clinton is in western iowa. it's a little bit more conservative over there. bernie sanders notably not spending any time out west in these final hours, chris. >> all right, kasie hunt, who is on the bus with bernie sanders, thank you so much. now to donald trump. he just took the stage in clinton, iowa. let's take a listen to a little bit of that. >> if you look at trade, if you
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look at -- just take a look at the iran deal, i talk about it all the time because it's inconceivable that somebody could have made a deal like that. it's inconceivable. they're mocking us, they're scorning us. even with fox what i did, i walked away from the debate. by the way, raised $6 million for the veterans. [ cheers and applause ] >> in all fairness, fox has been great. but it was a little tough to go back. we created something the other day that was amazing. in one hour, we raised $6 million for the veterans. think of that, one hour. one hour. and we had to turn away thousands of people. you know, we had a wonderful thing at drake. wonderful auditorium. but it held like 800 people. we turned away thousands and thousands of people. and so there's something going on. i mean there's something going on. i feel badly that we should have gotten a bigger place but who
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knows, who knows. but the beautiful thing was we were -- you know, you have to take a stand. i wanted to be in that debate so badly, but you have to take a stand at some point. they can't be mocking you and taunting. in football they call it taunting. you get a penalty for taunting. so they were taunting. i said, listen, i'm not going to do that. why should i do that if i'm being taunted. why should i do that. we were working on different deals where maybe they put up money for the veterans. i'm only interested in putting up money for the veterans. and it just worked that it got too late. and then this event that we had took on a life of its own. it's so amazing what took place. we had one young soldier get up and he spoke for 10 or 15 minutes. he came back and no problems when he went. when he came back, three tours of duty. he came back and he was missing one leg and he talked about his life and how tough it was when he came back and how he's acclimated and it was an amazing thing. i don't know how many people heard it but it was an amazing story from a great young man. so we're helping a lot of
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people. we have to help our vets. i always talk about that. we're going to build our military so strong, so powerful, so good, hopefully never use it. hopefully never have to use it. but right now our military is in bad shape. one of the soldiers came back and told me, the son of a friend of mine, he said, you know, mr. trump, what's so sad to me is they have better equipment than we do. i said what do you mean? we have the best equipment. no. they take it away. we give it to our so-called whoever we're fighting with, who we don't even know who they are. we don't even know who these people are. like if you look at syria, if you look at -- no matter where you look, we're giving equipment to people that we have no ideas and they always have these wonderful names. the so and so and the brigades, the wonderful brigade here. they come up with these names. we have no idea. we're giving hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment away. and he said one bullet gets fired in the air, they run and the enemy takes over the equipment.
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and i read and i saw this and i never believed it, but it turned out to be true. 2,300 humvees, all armor plated, the best in the world. we have people without arms and without legs because they didn't have that kind of vehicle, they didn't have the armor plate. and all of this equipment was gone, 2,300 humvees cost a fortune. how do you get that many over there. think of it. how do you get them over? when i heard 2,300 i always say it can't be that many, but it is and it was. and they have that and we have stuff that's unprotected and nothing by comparison. so this young man was complaining and he said the people are so incredible that are in the armed services but the equipment is not what it's supposed to do because so much of the best equipment goes to our allies, our partners who we have no idea why they're partners and what they're fighting for. we have no idea if they get in, if they ever get in, are they going to be worse than saddam hussein was. are they going to be worse that
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gadhafi, are they going to be worse than some of these guys we get out. all these guys you get them out and you end up with a disaster and a total destabilization of the middle east. and we're spending trillions and trillions of dollars. and i mean i have to tell you, i've gotten a lot of points lately especially for vision. you know, you should get -- if you're running for president, you should get points for vision because vision means something. it means you're doing right. if you look at hillary clinton, she was all for going into the war in iraq. and in 2003-2004, even though i wasn't a politician, i'm a job creator. that's what i do. i build and i love to build and do what i do. i built a great business, a fantastic business, which is the kind of thinking we need here. that's what we need because what we are doing with the money, we are losing with the trade deals we're pock making, with the military, with the whole thing is just out of control. and, you know, no matter where you go and no matter how you do it and no matter what transaction you look at that we
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make, they're no good. they're no good. and when i look at china, as an example. china is to me a great example because that's the biggest of them all. they're all bad. we don't make any good deals. when was the last time -- i tell people and always ask people when was the last time we won? like did we win on trade or knock the hell out of isis. which we will, by the way, we will knock their asses off. [ cheers and applause ] we have to. we have to. we have to. look, we shouldn't have been in iraq -- >> and that is donald trump. he always speaks off the cuff. he seems a little tired actually, maybe a little bit more low energy than i have seen him in times past. and you see how much this is wearing on all the campaigns as they crisscross the state. let me bring in glen thrush. glen, we see here for donald trump another big crowd. are we going to know at the end of monday how real this
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phenomenon is of donald trump, how real this phenomenon of bernie sanders is? >> yeah, by the way just sitting here, i'm sitting here outside marco rubio event in ames and earlier i was to see bill clinton. just listening to trump without the visual, it's like a fever dream. it's just like this endless flow of language from topic to topic, it's amazing. when i was at this event with bill clinton at a fewer house, i ran into tom vilsack, the former governor of iowa and somebody who knows an awful lot about the iowa caucuses and he said something interesting to me about the evangelicals and ted cruz because he has been an observer of this over the years. he's saying that for all the support that trump has and he obviously has enormous crowds, that the cruz campaign has an innate homefield advantage based on evangelicals. they tend to go to church on a monday before caucuses and then they tend to bus their members
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to caucuses. vilsack thinks that one of cruz's secret weapons obviously is his father, rafael, who's been barnstorming around the state. so you almost have a duality. the trump folks have enthusiasm but not tremendous infrastructure. cruz probably has an innate advantage on the ground. >> i want to say that i also love the headline that's in politico right now that says pollsters sweat it out as iowans prepare to vote. what's the sweat? this has been such a predictable campaign so far this year. >> and by the way, pollsters have nailed it lately. they have gotten it completely right. well, we're waiting for tonight, the big des moines register/bloomberg poll which tends to be a fairly accurate predictor. it was pretty good in 2008. and i think that is going to have a real tectonic impact, at least on the way that we cover
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this race. i have to say in seeing -- again, you hit the nail on the head in terms of the tactics, the sanders versus the clinton campaign have been using. bill clinton was doing his folksy arkansas routine up there in north central iowa today and he's going down to grinnell right now and you can really see the focus on getting out to folk. now, the clinton folks have a fairly small group of people. they want to expand the caucuses to. but it's older folks, people who have voted before. this was an event, and this was interesting and i didn't see this in 2008 when i covered clinton events. there were probably only 150 people at this firehouse. it was only about two-thirds full. when i walked, they were counting the commitment cards and there were about 100 commitment cards. that's a very high rate so that tells you precisely what the clinton folks are banking on. >> real quickly, glen, what are you going to be looking for on
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monday night on the republican side? >> i think what we're going to be looking for, a few things that i'd look at. i'd want to see how big the initial trump vote is. i want to see how those people get to the polls if they get to the polls. i think that is going to be a real tell. if you see a very, very large turnout you'll know trump has succeeded. the other thing i'm fascinated by, to see who makes it below the 5% threshold and where those voters go. i suspect, and i've talked with a bunch of republicans about this and there is varied opinions, that a lot of those other candidates will pick up small amounts. ben carson, kasich, a lot of those will revert to anti-trump folks. it will be interesting to see if cruz, who is not popular with those supporters either, gets them. so if cruz becomes a positioned anti-trump alternative that other candidates' voters go for, that would be an additional
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factor. if not, trump will probably triumph. >> glen thrush, who is sitting outside another event. thank you so much for joining us. look who we grabbed, rick tyler. this really is the answer, right, who is going to be in the minds of a lot of voters the alternative to trump? and i have to tell you that earlier today i was at a marco rubio event and that's what they're looking for. i mean all the people i talked to were there, they narrowed it down to two or three people. the people who were leaning, maybe weren't sure at all. for a lot of them, frankly, it was about they were tired of donald trump, they didn't think that he was electable, they didn't think he had the experience, they mentioned isis a lot. what makes you think you'll be the alternative? >> i think that ted cruz is the most prepared. the other problem marco has is that he campaigned as an anti-amnesty candidate. >> how is cruz more prepared than marco rubio? >> i think on a number of
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issues. on foreign policy, on his tax policy. he has worked in the supreme court. he's worked for the administration. so he's got a lot of experience. he's been a solicitor general who's argued before the supreme court so he has a wide breadth of experience. but one of the problems with marco rubio is that he's been -- he campaigned as an anti-amnesty candidate and he was a chief sponsor of the gang of eight. i think if we nominate a pro-amnesty candidate, i think we're just lose the vote to clinton. >> there are a lot of people who think in the debate the other night your guys lost to marco in that exchange. >> oh, i don't think so. when they showed the clip of marco saying i will never, ever support amnesty and then the clip of him being with chuck schumer and supporting amnesty, that's what weep el are sick of. they're sick of the deal making, sick of the washington games, sick of campaigning one day and do another thing. ted cruz, when he campaigns he said i'm going to be anti-amnesty. so did marco.
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marco went one way and joined the democrats and cruz went the other way and stuck to his word. that's what he's done and that's what people are looking for. i also don't think they're looking for another deal maker who's going to make deals with democrats and compromise principles. so i think we're in a good place. the des moines register poll is coming out a little later today. >> how nervous are you about that? >> a little abit. >> what are you looking for, margins? >> on all these polls we've been in solid second place. i think we're in a very good position because our voters are used to going to polls -- going to the caucuses and primary events. donald trump -- i'm getting a little feedback in my ear. >> you can pull this out. we're having a little trouble with as we call it the mix minus here. so donald trump voters, he's got quite a hurdle because he's got to get people to the polls who really never caucused before and really never primaried before. now, that was true, barack obama did that back in 2008, but you
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could feel it here. you could feel something was happening with barack obama's campaign. i don't get that same sense with donald trump. we've got an extraordinary ground game here. we've got 12,000 volunteers out, all our caucus locations covered. we have 1800 precinct captains and co-captains. glenn beck came by our headquarters this morning and riled everybody up. >> there's somebody to rile people up, glenn beck can do it. i am curious, if you finish third, is it done then? you have to finish first or second, rick? >> yeah, i think that's right. i think we have to finish first or second. we've been the underdog since the beginning and never been given a chance. now we're in moat of these polls second, although i think we have a superior ground game. even in new hampshire we are second. this really is a two-person race. i don't think it's going to become a three-person race. it's between donald trump and ted cruz. there's still a lot of overhead voters because our favorability is rather high. donald trump is almost upside
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down if he's not upside down already with his favorables, unfavor als over his favorables. >> and you're going to new hampshire no matter what? >> we're going to new hampshire. we've got $19 million in the bag. that's what we're going to report on sunday when the filing is due. we've raised over $50 million. we have 200,000 volunteers nationwide. we're going the distance. we're going all the way to the convention. by the way, iowa voters asked us that too. they said please tell me you don't have a single stage strategy. the problem with marco's campaign is it's a bit of a identical crisis. every day is a new strategy, a new set of voters, a new state they're going to win and tomorrow is different. >> rick tyler, who happened to be nearby and i wanted to have you come in and talk a little bit about your candidate. thank you so much. >> appreciate it. >> good luck on monday. >> thanks. >> and good luck with the poll. we are all waiting for this poll to come out because it has been such a predictor. when we come back, earlier today i had a chance to speak with some voters at a rally -- oh, we
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have hillary clinton. she has arrived at her event. she's running late. let's listen. >> i think there are things the government can working with private business, the private sector create those jobs. we need more infrastructure jobs. our jobs, our bridges, our tunnels, our ports, our airports, our rail systems. there is work to be done right here in iowa and across america. these are jobs that can't be exported. they need to be done right here at home. i also have laid out a rural economic development strategy to diversify the rural economy. i worked on it with tom vilsack, your former governor, now the secretary of agriculture. and there are so many -- [ cheers and applause ] so many great ways to revitalize the rural economy by drawing back manufacturing, change the tax -- give people tax breaks for exporting jobs and moving them overseas and if we combat
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climate change by investing more in clean, renewable energy, something iowa has been a leader in and we can build on that to create more economic opportunity. it's always amazing to me when the republicans are asked about climate change and they say, well, i don't know, i'm not a scientist. honestly, i go around the state saying talk to a scientist and there are a lot of them at the universities and colleges here who can tell you, hey, this is happening. we now have an international agreement. hopefully we'll implement here. here's what i don't understand. i'm not quite sure that they really don't believe in climate change. i think the koch brothers tell them not to believe in climate change so then they don't believe in climate change because they want to keep them on their side. but they're also missing a great economic opportunity. and some countries going to be the 21st century superpower. i think it's either going to be china, germany or us.
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i want it to be us and i think it can be us if we start working toward it right now. and when i tell people this around the country, sometimes i'll look in an audience and i'll see skepticism on people's faces. and here's what i say to them. i say businesses in our country are already on the path. iowa already gets one-third from renewable sources, mostly wind. you are among leaders in the nation. the work you're doing in biofuels and particularly advanced biofuels, the reason the defense department -- >> so we have a little break-up in our signal from hillary clinton, but elsewhere in iowa and grinnell, there we see her husband. let's listen for a minute to former president bill clinton. >> all of them have seen their incomes go down, and poverty rise. so it's obvious that there are a
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lot of people who are agitated. for good reason. then there are all the young millennials that have gone out in this economy with a whole pack of college debt and a stupid system that says you can refinance your home but not your college debt, no matter how low the interest rates are, and no limits on the percentage of their income they can be required to spend to pay it back. so i met a man in new york next week who said he thought he was paying his personal assistant a good salary, but half of her disposable income after taxes every month was going to repay her loan. then you've got all the people in college who are afraid the same thing is going to happen to them. so you've got a bunch of young americans who think i'm going to have a good education, did everything i was supposed to do. i've got debt i can't repay. i'm never going to be able to own my own home and i'll never be able to borrow money -- >> bill clinton part of the clinton campaign out in full force today. let me bring inspect ted devine,
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senior advisor for the sanders campaign. you and i have known each other for a while. look me in the eye. would you guess six months ago you'd be in this position? >> no. it's been incredible because in nine months since bernie announced. we had a candidate, he had a message. we had a piece of paper saying declaration of candidacy. we had no bank account, no organization. we've built this incredible organization here in iowa and aernd around the nation. >> listening to hillary clinton and bill clinton, their message on those issues aren't very different from your candidate. so what's going to be the difference? >> i think bernie's message that the economy is rigged in america, that it sends too much wealth to the top and it's held in place by a corrupt system of campaign finance. and we just heard president clinton talking about college debt. hillary has a plan, it's a good plan. bernie has a plan too. universal college education. it's time for it. 50 years ago in this country if you graduated from high school,
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you'd get a job. now kids need a college education and they need to leave it debt-free. >> so here's how the republicans mock that campaign promise, right. they say, so, we're going to pay for it now, but those same kids, who are going to college, are going to end up paying for it 10 years, 20 years, 30 years down the road. there's no free lunch. at some point you're going to have to pay for things. >> here's how we pay for it, with a tax on financial transactions. wall street got bailed out when they almost brought this country to the brink of the second great depression. it's time for wall street to help the middle class in america. we'll impose a tax that happens in countries all around the world. we think that's a great way to pay for free true iuition. >> it is a phenomenon for donald trump, there's no doubt about it. it's an unexpected phenomenon for your candidate as well. how much of it is the message itself and how much of it is anti-washington fervor? >> well, i think on the republican side, i think it's a lot more antiwashington. i mean i think on our side it's
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the message that resonates and also the messenger. i think people, young people, a lot of people see bernie sanders as someone -- >> it is interesting that the oldest candidate has these younger supporters. >> it is, it's fascinating. but i think he strikes them as then particul authentic, as real, as genuine. >> you're up against a juggernaut. you're up against money, you're up against organization and frankly up against a lot of experience. when you look at hillary clinton, you have to give her at least the credit that she was the secretary of state, that she was a senator, and frankly in a time when people are fed up with what happened in washington and you can make an argument that bernie sanders was a part of that congress, is a part of that congress, she was somebody who won a lot of props from republicans at the time in the senate for reaching across the aisle. she showed that she could work with other people. so how do you look at that and say we can win? >> well, i think what we have to do is get our message out to people. listen, hillary clinton is a
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very strong candidate. she was a prohibitive front-runner just a few months ago. but i think bernie sanders is gaining ground because what he's talking about doing, whether it's universal health care for every american to make it a right, whether it's breaking up the big banks, something hillary said she doesn't want to do, whether it's having a foreign policy that says other countries need to share the burden and america shouldn't have so much of that burden alone, all of the things he's talking about i think are resonating very power fully. i think people are ready for bold action, not small steps. >> even if he does well in iowa and new hampshire, and new hampshire was always going to be a strong point for him being neighboring to vermont, you look at what she has in place and you look at the polls in the states that are coming up from south carolina to super tuesday states, this doesn't look good for bernie sanders. do you have to win in iowa and new hampshire to get some momentum to propel you to that or is it more or less over for you guys. >> it hasn't started yet. i don't think it's over. >> you can continue to go
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without winning in iowa? >> no, i don't think there's any one state we have to win to win the nomination. in 2008 barack obama won iowa but he lost new hampshire. hillary clinton is the only candidate who's actually won the democratic primary in new hampshire that was running and she's got some standing there too. no, i think we need to get momentum. i've worked for walter mondale in 1984 and trust me when gary hart came out of new hampshire he had incredible momentum. he might have won that nomination if they had prepared a mechanism to receive the nomination. we've done that. we have people in every march 1st state. we have resources. over a million contributors. over 3 million individual contributions to this campaign. so we've got the resources and are going to run a national campaign and i think we're going to win it. >> i was just asking rick tyler from the cruz campaign. how nervous are you about the des moines register poll about to come out? >> we'll see what it says. i think the race is close right now. i think hillary has a small advantage. in 2004, the last time i worked
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here, 21% of the voters made up their mind in the last three days. in 2008, 20% of the voters in the iowa caucuses made up their mind in the last three days. 11% on the day of the caucus itself. so a lot of people, maybe one-fifth, will decide between now and monday and we think a lot of those people will come to bernie sanders. >> they will come to bernie sanders but will they come to the caucuses? they're two different things. we've all talked about this ad nauseum. i think traditionally people think they have the enthusiasm, particularly with young people. i've spent a lot of time on college campus, and they're all fired up. when push comes to shove, the numbers don't change that much. why do you think this will be different on monday? >> because they're so excited about bernie sanders and his candidacy and because they participated so much in this campaign and because our ability to communicate with young people now through social media, you know, in 2008, no one had an iphone because they didn't exist. now we can talk to people constantly and remind them where
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to go and get to the caucus. >> good to see you in person. >> thanks, chris. >> good luck on monday. >> thank you. take a look at what's going on with jeb bush, somebody who a lot of folks thought not so long ago he was the prohibitive favorite, $100 million in the bank, all of the establishment endorsements. now he's leaving iowa early and heading to new hampshire but he's still here and talking to voters at a town hall right now. keep it here on msnbc. our coverage will continue right after this. >> helps us and keeps us safe but it also helps create a better world. we have that within reason in terms of limits. we have that ability to do it and we should continue.
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it is 33 minutes past the hour. we are live in iowa, where there are four events we're watching right now. jeb bush holding a town hall in cedar rapids. donald trump still speaking in clinton, iowa. two clintons actually, bill and hillary, holding dueling events so it is a very busy weekend here. i want to bring in former republican national committee general counsel and msnbc
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political analyst ben ginsburg. this is your seventh presidential election cycle. you worked for george w., you worked for mitt romney, you worked for scott walker's campaign. >> yes, i did. yes, i did. it's a lot easier sitting here, right? >> it's much less stressful. >> there has been so much talk about how different, how crazy, how wild this year has been. what is it, is this just chaos or controlled chaos? >> well, i'm not sure how controlled it is. you've got a lot of candidates. you have an angry electorate. you've got new funding mechanisms. you've got kind of calendar changes in the mechanics of the races. so it's just a very beastly kid of a cycle. >> so it can rise and then fall flat. like a loaf of bread. i wonder if at the heart of this iowa campaign things won't change, that it will be about
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turnout. it will be about that fa face-to-face -- it was so interesting to me when i was at the marco rubio campaign this morning. every single person said i need to see him and look him in the eye. that hasn't changed. >> no, that part hasn't changed but you have an interesting contrast in styles amongst the campaigns. donald trump is doing big, big rallies. the folks there get to see a lot of him but don't get to look him in the eye. at the marco rubio rallies, there's more rope line action. the ted cruz campaign and its ground game, which they're very, very proud of, is the old-fashioned way. so you're going to have those contrasts come to roost. >> a year ago no one would have predicted that the guy that you were working for wouldn't be here. >> yes. >> it's kind of crazy, right? nobody would have thought scott walker wouldn't even make it to iowa. and every campaign i've talked to, especially after the debates, it's a great place to sit and talk to everybody, they said something is going to happen that's going to surprise everybody. not that they knew exactly what
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that was. but given the kind of year it is, given how many people are in on the republican side, are we going to see something shocking? >> i'm sure we are. the expectations are pretty set in right now. you know, it's either going to be trump or cruz is what everyone says. there will be some candidates who surprise. there will just be a candidate who nobody is looking at right now who does really well in either iowa or new hampshire. there will be somebody who is built up who doesn't do quite so well. how the candidates recover from all of that is really the toughest thing. george w. bush losing new hampshire in 2000. what happens to -- >> so how did that happen that they were able to recover, that you were able to recover? >> so it is -- it always starts with the candidate. the candidate has confidence in his people. recognizes that this is a tumultuous process where things unexpected happen. and if you have faith in your
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people, then you keep going forward. what you worry about are the campaigns who suffer a defeat, a bump in the road, and then change everything all of a sudden. that usually is a sign of a campaign that doesn't recover. >> the caucus doesn't determine the republican nominee if history holds true. we did not see rick santorum become the republican nominee, we did not see mike huckabee become the nominee, but it can provide -- it can accept ramt t -- separate the wheat from the chaff. will there be an early winnowing do you think or everybody will make it through to march 1st at least and at least super tuesday? >> i think there will be a winnowing but i would guess we come out of iowa, new hampshire and south carolina with probably six candidates who all want to get to march 1st. and what the first four states do is sort of a qualifying round to get to the demolition derby that's march 1st. that's part of the changes in the calendar that i mentioned
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before. >> so if you were going to be a predictor -- >> oh, no. >> he's not going to do it. there's this poll coming out you were talking about. they're actually having an event to unveil this poll. >> it's a substantive event. >> we're giving so much publicity to the des moines register right now, but what do you think? what's going to be in that poll? >> i don't know. they always have an interesting and historically accurate assessment of it. what the poll has been good at is spotting what you've said before, what's going to rise up, what's going to fall down. what are the trends in the last few days that maybe we're all missing by not having the sort of comprehensive polling they do. >> and we'll see if the meteorologists are going to be their friend or not. ben ginsburg, always great to see you. welcome aboard. thank you so much. earlier today i had a chance to speak with some voters at a rally for senator marco rubio and what they're looking for in a candidate. we'll talk to them when we come back. seems like we've hit a road block.
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for those of you who are still thinking and weighing your options, i hope to be able to persuade you to come out and also caucus for me, because the stakes in this election are so high. i'm proud of the campaign we've run on the democratic side because it has been about issues, not insults. >> that was this hour, hillary clinton speaking at one of several stops for her today as she approaches the iowa home stretch. everybody is making multiple stops today. meantime one of the republicans who had been targeting her, senator marco rubio, currently polling third here in iowa, i was at a rubio rally in council bluffs just about midday today and had a chance to talk with some of the decided and undecided voters about the florida senator and here's what they told me. >> we just want to hear what marco rubio has to say and size him up against the other candidates. i want answers on immigration and isis and the key issues.
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i want to know what he thinks he can do. >> so you're undecided. what are you looking for? >> i'm looking for a leader who can unite america. >> have you narrowed it down? >> i think i have, but in my mind i'm still trying to -- i don't want to waste my vote, so i want to -- >> how many have you narrowed it down to. >> to two or three. >> i like rubio. rand paul maybe a little. still deciding. >> will you both definitely caucus? >> we would if we felt strongly enough. >> so he really has to sell you today? >> right. >> yes. >> well, i think he's most qualified because he's very educated on everything. if you ask him a question, he knows. he has a plan. he's not just going to tell you america is great again, he's going to let you know exactly what he has planned for america. >> so you've made your mind up. >> yes, i have. >> and you will caucus. >> i will, yes, for marco rubio. i've paid attention since he was elected senator all the way
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along. i know that he's qualified to be president. >> when do you think you'll make your decision? >> oh, you know, it might be today. i'm leaning really strongly towards him. i want to vote for someone who is electable and i think he's really electable. >> do you think trump is not elktable? >> i'm tired of trump. i liked him at first. i was interested and also interested in christie because of him being governor. i'm tired of hearing stories and not action of what are they going to do. what plans do you actually have because your idea of great and my idea of great might be different. i think marco is looking at how he actually is going to do the job instead of just make headlines. >> so that's really interesting. the last three people you heard from, it's a family. jane tim is with me as well. she was at that event. so those folks, here is the deal. the man and the woman are engaged. he, because of agriculture, supports marco rubio. his fiancee says she's now also going to support marco rubio.
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they're trying to convince the mom, the future mother-in-law. it really points to something very specific here in iowa. you can talk about a lot of different things, but family, friends, neighbors have a huge influence as it's coming down to the wire. >> it's so important in these last days. ted cruz's big joke this week has been vote ten times, bring nine of your friends. we're not democrats. the republican idea that democrats, voter fraud, things like this. this is huge here. it's all about family, it's what your friends and family think. when i talk to people who are torn, you can see there's going to be a conversation at that dinner table. someone is going to go the other way. >> the other thing we heard there was kind of the convince me. i have always been surprised, especially in final weekends before the caucuses, people make the effort, they come out, they'll sometimes see multiple candidates and because it's a small state they can do that, but they'll see multiple candidates in a weekend but they're not sure they're going to caucus. they need someone to inspire them to go out a second or a
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third time in three days and actually go to that caucus site. >> so many people i talked with at the marco rubio rally said i like four people in this race but i need somebody will go the long way and i think marco rubio is finding momentum with that. he's not as loud at donald trump and not as quiet as ben carson but they're looking for someone in the middle. >> not too hot, not too cold. >> exactly right in the sweet spot where they feel like this is going to be someone that's worth going out for. they see him going a long way. no one wants to go out on a cold night in february to caucus for someone who's jumping out of the race in a few months. >> and you think you always want to back the winner and one of the things i hear a lot is about electability. who can beat hillary clinton or bernie sanders. on the other hand, there is this strong evangelical core of people. i even hear from them i'm not sure, for example, that ben carson has any chance at all,
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but he really speaks to me. he's soft spoken, but he speaks to me in a very strong way and you wonder if a ben carson or in a different way maybe a jeb bush, they're not going to come close to winning, but can they outperform expectations and that in another way gives them a boost. >> and that's absolutely the goal of someone like ben carson. he's incredibly likeable. people here really, really like him. whether or not they vote for him, they will go see him and enjoy talking to him. it isn't just a political event when you see dr. ben carson on the trail but he needed to have a better debate if he was going to make an emergence in this race. people said, you know, let's give him a shot. let's throw our support behind him. i think marco rubio might be the only person who's outperformed expectations. i think a lot of candidates who outperform expectations do less well than the polls have suggested. a week out, this race can change. >> anything can happen. jane, thank you so much.
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good to see you. that's going to do it for this part of it, but hillary clinton continuing her event in carroll, iowa, right now. she's just one of the candidates who's making a last-minute push in iowa. look, they all are. we're going to be back with two iowa insiders to give us their take on what just might happen on monday and what we might see in maybe about an hour from that poll that's coming out of the "des moines register." i knew i could quit. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. chantix reduced my urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse or of seizures. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you have these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have heart or blood vessel problems,
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built for business. . welcome back to our live coverage of the lead up to the iowa caucus. and i am joined by two real veterans, david yetsin, former longtime reporter for the "des moines register." he is now director at illinois university, one of the most
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respected political journalists anywhere, covering iowa politics since, not possible, 1972, caucuses since '76. we're also joined by the political director for nbc's des moines affiliate, who, david price. you guys have both been around the block. it's a thrill to have you both here together. with the tension building, the excitement building, the poll coming out in the "des moines register," i know with all your sources there, david, you're going to give us a little hint of what we're going to see. >> they have it wired down pretty tight. >> what are you expecting? >> i think you could see -- a couple things i feel from being on the ground, i have no access -- rubio is doing -- is coming up. >> i can tell you, having been at his event, he acts like he knows something's going on. >> and the other candidates act like it, too. cruz has amped up his attack ads on him. so i think that's going on. and i think caucusgoers are feeling the burn. >> really? >> the thing that's hard for us to cover in this one is, the effect of social media.
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so many young people, in bernie's campaign, and so many people in trump's campaign are newcomers. and there's same-day registration in iowa. and i think on caucus night, there's going to be a whole lot of, let's go to caucus. and you can't measure that in a poll. >> you can measure it in a poll, but you both know what it feels like on the ground. how's it feel to you, dave? >> as dave mentioned, cruz coming after rubio now instead of coming after trump ought to tell you where those numbers are going. so people can feel that rubio surge here. so the talk was, he could get third, maybe now you're seeing people sell you on the fact maybe he can get second out of this. trump get first, rubio gets second, and cruz gets third. >> and cruz needs to come in first or second. that would be devastating. and tret ric has gotten much more heated over the last couple of days. let me play you a compilation of what we've heard in recent hours out here in iowa.
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>> ted as a big problem. other people have different problems. me, i have no problem. ted cruz may not be a u.s. citizen, but he's an anchor baby -- no, he's an anchor baby -- ted cruz is an anchor baby in canada. >> i like donald. and he's welcome to say whatever he likes. i like him and respect him. that's all i've got to say and right now it's up to the voters to decide. >> you're not going to win by insulting the disabled. you're not going to win by insulting women. you're not going to win by saying p.o.w.s were losers because they got caught. shame on donald trump. >> iowans traditionally don't reward the harsh rhetoric, but is this a whole different world with donald trump? >> it's different in this regard. the times are different, people are so angry in both parties with, we talked a lot about that in this campaign. americans in both parties, bernie sanders, donald trump's campaign. trump is rewriting a lot of the rules and it's changing the
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nature of the caucus. a huge turnout coming, massive turnout. >> and it's hard to remember a time when you see the anger on both sides at the same time. you can go back, in '88 when robertson kind of had it going on, on the republican side, and maybe way back in vietnam on the democratic side, but when do you see both of this at the same time. >> and we'll see on monday night how to translate. let me review something that was written this afternoon in "the new york times." quote, the presidential race hurdled over the weekend towards a watershed moment. voting that will start to reveal the true depth of america's desires to cast aside traditional politicians and washington-style compromise and embrace disruptive outsiders appealing to their passions. i take it you agree with that, but i guess the big question is, what will make the difference in whether or not that translates on caucus night? >> well, one of the things that happens on caucus night, and again, this is something you don't find in a poll, you get neighbors together. there are meetings, right? and so you're sitting there, in a room with your friends and your neighbors. and what do you do?
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you talk politics. and minds change as a result of that. you get together and you say, who can win, who can lose? what do you think of so-and-so? what do you think of so-and-so? and i think that dynamic is impossible to measure. >> what do you expect? >> and i also think just the uniqueness of the caucus, you can't be lukewarm about somebody, or you're going to stay home monday night. it will be kind of cold, we have a snowstorm coming. it's a lot easier to stay home and watch it on tv. if you're mad, that's a motivator to get out there. that's why trump could very likely win and maybe sanders pulls the upset. >> we have just seconds left. what are the chances that there will be record turnout. and if so, by how much? >> it will be a good turnout. i don't know by how much more, but it will be a record. >> not on the democratic side, probably on the republicans. >> dave price, david yepsin, two of the best. thank you guys for coming in. it's going to be a thriller, isn't it? that's going to do it for me today. i'm chris jansing live in des moines. stay with msnbc, because we'll have the latest news throughout
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the night. live all day from iowa tomorrow and the countdown to the iowa caucus continues. welcome to the world 2116, you can fly across town in minutes or across the globe in under an hour. whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. in less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes, across the universe and beyond. and if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. ♪ iand quit a lot,t but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq. staying in rhythm... it's how i try to live... how i stay active.
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on what really matters. marie callender's. it's time to savor. like it or trump it, let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington on the way to des moines. well, he did it, didn't he? donald trump didn't show up for the big performance thursday night, but there was no understudy there to replace him. no judy garland character to step into the spotlight, no political awningview to take him. the whole event went just as donald trump planned it. heot

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