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tv   Morning Joe  MSNBC  March 8, 2016 3:00am-6:01am PST

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6x cleaning, 6x whitening i would switch to crest hd over what i was using before. there's only one candidate who has repeatedly beaten donald trump. there is only one candidate who can and will beat donald trump. and that is our campaign. >> man, that guy -- and i'm a good christian but i'll tell you what. he walks up and he holds up that bible. and he's there with the bible. and he puts it down. and then he starts lyin'. i call him lyin' ted cruz. i'm the only one with any chance of beating donald trump
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in florida. if you don't want donald trump to be the republican nominee you have to vote for marco rubio. >> we have little marco rubio. he said the obama phrase. and then he did it again and again and again and again. after the fifth time i was getting ready to -- see the size of that hand? look at that. i was going to grab him to show him how strong the hand is because he made that sucker up. i was going to say, marco, i won't let you fall. i don't want you to get hurt, marco. >> oh, boy! good morning. it is election day. tuesday, march 8th. once again. 150 delegates, joe, on the line in four states today. republicans, holding primaries in michigan, mississippi and idaho. long with hawaii, right? >> yeah. you know, the thing is, there is no doubt, this is going to be one of the biggest days of the election leading into the biggest next week. and so i'm glad that they really raised -- look at that. michigan, 59 delegates.
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mississippi, 40. idaho, 32. hawaii, 19. so aren't we glad, mika, that everybody raised their game the way they did? >> yeah. it was nice to see them come together and focus intellectually on the issues. democratic primary voters head to the polls today. a total of 188 delegates at stake. michigan alone will award 147. with us on set. veteran columnist and msnbc contributor mike barnicle. former communications director for george w. bush nicolle wallace. in las vegas. mark halperin. in washington. associate of the "washington post" and political analyst eugene robinson. we're going to dive into politics, joe, but can i just say. erin andrews -- >> good for her! >> probably wasn't enough money. >> good for the jury.
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>> what a horror. >> what a horror and what an unbelievable thought that anybody thought the other side had any case to go with. >> good for her, and also, the fact that the defense actually had the audacity to say that this was probably good for her career. if i were a juror, i would have handed her a blank check at that point. this is something that will live with her for the rest of her life. monica lewinsky is exactly right. she was ground zero or patient x or whatever she called herself in her ted talk for online bullying. erin andrews, though, has something that will just stay with her forever. >> you're absolutely right. >> and joe, one other person who is worthy of praise today, i would submit, is maria sharapova, who stepped up to the
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plate and said, yeah, i took a band substance. i'm sorry. i had been on something for ten years. they changed it to a banned substance recently but i did it. unlike every guy we can think of in professional sports who says he didn't do it. >> i didn't do it! my head is three feet wide, but i didn't do it. >> well, yeah! and at the end of the day -- i've seen it time and time again, at the end of the day those are the people that actually survive and are forgiven by the fans or forgiven by -- excuse me -- forgiven by others across the board. the yankees pitcher. i've been in bed for three days sick, so my mind is not quite as sharp as it usually is. but the yankees pitcher that went before and testified. >> clemens. >> roger clemens? >> no. he denied it. the other yankees pitcher the lefty. >> andy pettitte. >> he admitted to it. he said i took it because i was
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trying to recover from an injury and, you know, i am sorry. everybody forgave him. he is not in roger clemens' category. he's not in any of the other goons' categories because he took it, he admitted it. it was behind him. >> sharapova said she has been taking this medication for ten years for a heart condition, didn't know it had been recently added to the list of banned substances. martina navratilova came out and said it looks like an honest mistake. to your point, by getting ahead of the story she is probably helping herself. michigan is perhaps the biggest prize today. in a new monmouth university poll in that state's primary shows donald trump in the lead. trump is ahead by 13 points. 36% to ted cruz at 23%. john kasich in a close third at 21%. marco rubio at 13%. that's below the 15% threshold to qualify for at-large
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delegates. last night donald trump rallied thousands in madison, mississippi, where he was honored by local officials and had his supporters take an oath to vote for him. >> what are you voting? come on. tomorrow! raise your right hand, everybody. do you swear that you're going to vote for donald trump tomorrow? raise that hand. i love you! i love you! all right? you can't go back. no, i'm only kidding. if you want to go back, you can but i don't think you will because nobody is going to do the job that i'm doing. >> yeah. a recent poll out of mississippi shows trump ahead of ted cruz by 24 points, 41 to 17. ted cruz won the surprise endorsement of mississippi's governor, joe, republican phil bryant rallied to cruz's side last night, attributed in part to his friendship with cruz supporter texas governor rick perry. cruz and rubio are making the
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exact same argument to voters in mississippi and florida. >> a vote for any other candidate, a vote for marco rubio or a vote for john kasich, is a vote for donald trump. >> a vote for john kasich or a vote for ted cruz in florida is a vote for donald trump. >> all right. go ahead, joe. >> okay. oh, no, i'm just looking at all these numbers. i want to talk, before we start getting into the numbers, because there is obviously the michigan poll. there is the ohio poll, the florida poll. the whole donald trump raising their hands thing. because there has been a meme on the internet that he looks like adolf hitler and everybody out there is raising their hands and that it's a fascist salute. i have been seeing that over the past three days. >> that's what john was telling me about yesterday. i didn't understand that. >> this is the first time i've actually seen the video. i think people are once again hyperventilating. we do that in baptist churches
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all the time. all heads bowed and eyes closed, raise your hand if this -- i mean, people do that. i don't know. mike barnicle, did that look like a nazi salute to you? >> no, no, no. >> are we really having this conversation? >> we're really having this conversation because there are people at respected newspapers that are writing and they're showing a quick clip when people first raised their hand to make it look like a fascist salute. so yes, we are having the conversation because this fits perfectly into the narrative over the past nine months where people go, why is trump winning? i don't understand why trump is winning, and then they over reach and do something stupid like this and make it look like a nazi salute in a little one and a half second clip. then you see the whole clip and go, they're lying about him. this has happened for nine months. nine months. people wonder why trump gets to use the media as his whipping
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board. it's just -- it's ridiculous. go ahead, mike. >> it's been going on for nine months. that is my point. the length of these campaigns, the american presidential campaigns, lends to absurdity in the coverage. yesterday we've had the trump thing going on for quite a while. now we have bernie sanders doesn't understand poor people or black people because he used the word "ghetto." it's absurd the way we now cover these things. i understand it because we are exhausted as the voters are exhausted as the candidates are exhausted. >> gene robinson, what do you think? >> well, before you rule on the donald trump raising your hands, look at the -- there is a photo that was all around taken from the back of the audience over -- over the weekend. and i'll tell you, it's not a good look for him. i'll just say this. it is not a good look for donald when seen from the rear with a whole bunch of people raising their right hand. >> still video.
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look at the video. >> are you kidding me, gene? >> i understand what you're saying. >> i'm talking about the still photo. look at the video! >> joe, i understand what you're saying. i'm just saying you should look at it from the rear. a still photograph can last, can linger, can have an impact. it's just not a good look for him. >> it certainly can have a lasting impact if the purpose is to wretch a moment from its proper context. >> absolutely. >> if that's what someone is looking to do, they can do it. we here -- you and i here are more interested in the truth and what really happened, so we play the video and people go, oh, there is nothing to it. >> if you take a photograph from the back of a class where immigrants are being sworn in as united states citizens -- >> thank you. >> -- the photo would look exactly the same. i swear -- >> yes, it would look the same. guys, i am just saying, look at the picture. this is not the first time and
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photograph has been taken out of context and certainly not the last time a photograph will be taken out of context. >> gene! wow. >> we have talked about this enough. i just -- i couldn't -- i couldn't -- willie, this is -- this is what we've been talking about, willie, for nine months. you okay there, mika? >> yeah. just, any howe how. >> you're dropping things again. >> dropped my pills. >> mother's little helper scattered all over the floor at 30 rock. >> i'll get them later. children, pick them up. mika laid out what's happening in the four states today, but really all eyes are a week from today. the big date on the republican calendar is march 15th when a total of 367 delegates are at stake with elections in florida, north carolina, illinois, ohio and more, a quarter of the 1237 needed to nominate at the convention. in the latest poll out of florida's winner-take-all
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primary for 99 delegates. trump's lead in the single digits. 38%. early voting in florida began on saturday. 20% of those polled had already cast their ballots. rubio from those was leading 48% to 23. donald trump leads 42 to 26 among those yet to vote. trump doubles rubio in central florida. 44/22. a tight race in north florida where trump is up by four points. one on one, trump comes out on top, 47 to rubio's 45. statistical tie. the poll sample registered republicans who voted in the 2012 and 2014 primaries or in both of the last two general election. they say they're likely to vote in next week's primaries. if donald trump wins florida and steals ohio where, depending on
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the poll you look at, he is neck and neck with john kasich. it's game over if he wins both. if he wins won and not the other, the race remains open. >> no doubt about it. alex, do we have the ohio poll that we can put up? >> also -- >> show us ohio. >> ohio will offer up on tuesday 66 delegates in a winner take all primary there. the buckeye state is tied. slight edge to trump. 35% to governor john kasich. inside the four-point margin of error. in a head-to-head matchup kasich easily takes down trump. >> let's -- let's forget the head-to-head matchups because they're not going to happen. let's go back to that. mark halperin. i want to go to you. let's keep this up for people driving. trump 38%, kasich, 35. marco rubio is down at 5% in
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ohio. a state the republicans have to win, mark halperin. in michigan, marco rubio, a distant fourth place. in mississippi marco rubio down 20, 30 points. this is going to be a brutal day for marco rubio. and there is beginning to be talk that maybe rubio should get out of the race before florida because, if he gets destroyed in all of these races and loses his home state, that his political career may be over. what are you hearing? >> well, look, the momentum phase is lasting longer in the republican race than we thought it would. it's not just about delegate accumulation. momentum matters a lot. rubio will probably not have a good day today in michigan or in mississippi. and in florida is he more likely to finish first or third at this point? not really clear. cruz is making some sort of play there. and trump is now going hard after rubio with the 60-second
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ad. we're waiting to see how big a buy that is. rubio faces a big choice now of whether he makes a last stand in florida and, if he does, whether he can succeed. there are doubts among some of his supporters that he can win florida. as you just showed, in an ohio poll he has to go all in in florida. even if he somehow came back to win in florida, it still begs the question of how strong he would be after that. >> mark halperin, this is a guy that -- future of the republican party and all that. he keeps finishing in third and fourth place. his people know there is no way forward. they know he's going to get trounced today. they know he's going to come in last place today in the biggest state today. we know he's going to lose badly in mississippi. we know he's going to lose badly across the board. i set all that up to say what does marco rubio have to gain by staying in the race, winning florida but then finishing up in a distant fourth place in the
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rest of the states. he -- it's -- i guess what i am saying is, the upside just doesn't -- doesn't justify the massive downside, which is, in effect, the end of his political career. >> well, i don't know that it's the end of his political career even if he does worst case. there are three reasons for him to stay in, i think. there is a chance he could win florida. in a poll there he's only down eight. two is, he can be part of helping stop trump get a majority of the delegates. even if he doesn't win florida, he can still pick up delegates in other places and cause trump to have to fight a multi-front war, if he wants to be front of that effort. mitt romney and others would like him to be. finally, if we get to the convention and no one has a majority marco rubio could end up on the ticket as someone who comes to the table with some number of delegates even if it's not the second or third most number of delegates. >> mika, what's happened with
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marco rubio? here is a guy that was supposed to be -- people are still writing as if he is just -- god's chosen candidate for the republican party. still writing and calling him a once in a generation candidate. i can't believe what i am reading. let's say he is half as good as his fans in the media had claimed he had been over the past year and a half, the same people that were bashing me for telling the truth about him, that he just wasn't that good of a candidate, wasn't going to do well. but let's say he is half that good. what has happened to his campaign? why has he failed as miserably as he has? >> well, i don't think everybody is treating him the way you have just said. the front page of the "new york times" has a pretty interesting piece talking about exactly his sort of rise and fall, echoing a past rise and fall he had in
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florida. yesterday cnn's jamie gangel put out a report saying some advisors thought it was better to bow out early whether than to lose in florida. >> her report was utter nonsense. she did not contact the campaign prior to coming on the show last hour and reporting that. it is 100% absolutely false. i think cnn is doing a disservice to voters by airing that sort of reporting without even checking with the campaign. her sources, whatever they are, have no idea what the internal deliberations are. wolf, i have a lot of respect for you but i'm going to ask you to stop reading that fiction on air. it's not true. if she had good sources in the campaign, she would have known that is not true. that is fiction and cnn should stop reporting it. >> they're going after it. a campaign will do that. they want to say when a campaign is over, right? >> we know mika. me know jamie. she is a great reporter.
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we also know that the rubio campaign employs a bunch of guys that could have been bagdad bob's stand-in in the first gulf war, where they tell you marco won when he lost and say things that just aren't true. so i don't know whether -- how much -- how this ends up, mika. but let's talk about jamie gangel for half a second. she is a great reporter. she wouldn't go with it if it weren't true, if she didn't have good sources. >> no. i have no reason to believe that she wouldn't. but i think the bigger story is what exactly is happening with marco rubio's campaign. any insight, nicolle? >> i spoke to them after that, i spoke to cnn and reached out to the campaign. as you all know there are people around a campaign who pass themselves off as sources. i don't doubt that jamie talked to someone who passed them thef selves off as a source, maybe a donor. when a campaign says we're not getting out, a campaign has a
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right to at least offer the response in the same breath as a report from the source. i guess i am bewildered that there is any distinction between kasich's rationale. i understand the rpoll in ohio has tightened. i am befuddled to why rubio is so much more offensive to you than kasich staying in. >> we're going into kasich's strength right now also. it's an expectations game, as you know, nicolle. marco rubio has been the odds-on favorite from the beginning of this process to win everything. he has been in all of the english betting whatever. he has been at the top. the "new york times" upshot had him as the number one candidate to win the nomination for all this time. i mean, let's face it. john kasich is running a long-shot campaign, and -- i mean, i think, actually, you know the answer to the question before you ask it.
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it's all about expectations and marco rubio has under performed. anybody expected john kasich to win iowa. they expected john kasich to do well in south carolina -- in new hampshire. he did. nobody expected john kasich to do well in the deep south. they expect him to do well in the midwest. we'll see if he does well in the midwest. and then, you know, we've had a bunch of southern and evangelical primaries stacked in the first half. now the second half of the race goes up into john kasich's region, and so we'll see what happens. as far as being offended, i am not offended whether marco stays in the race or not. i don't like him calling jamie gangel a liar, when you know what they're doing. they're saying we have an election tomorrow. we can't have these reports out today or anybody will vote for us tomorrow. >> neither one of them has a delegate strategy anymore. neither one has a way to a nomination by accruing the delegates. but for cruz's recent surge,
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neither did cruz until a week ago. so this is a totally different race than the normal kind of races that we cover. and other than -- >> exactly! >> other than their expectations being totally -- we talked off camera and you outed me when i said a few months when i said the only people who think rubio will be the next president are democrats and reporters. this is a totally different contest now when they're staying in to deprive trump of getting to 1237. in rubio wants to turn his cause into a deprivation strategy. >> marco's problem is he is getting worse by the week. >> trump has the nation talking about the correlation of the size of one's hands. rubio followed him there is funny. that rubio gets tagged with that. >> nicolle, just stop. >> stop blaming trump for taking us to the gutter? i never will. i never will.
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my child runs around the house yelling "hands." >> come on, nicolle. >> you want to blame rubio for going to the gutter? he followed trump there. that's what everyone talks about. >> i am talking about the numbers in the polls. he's finishes in third and fourth place. get your marco rubio badge off, okay? he is finishing in third and fourth place in every race. he is going to get pounded today. my whole point has been the same, another difference between john kasich and marco rubio is that john kasich doesn't have a political future after this. this is his final run for president. if marco wants to survive to fight another day, the question i have been asking for a week now is does it make political sense for him to get out before florida. because if he loses in florida as well as finishes in third and fourth place -- because all he's doing is finishing in third and fourth place -- why does he stay in the race? that's my question. not about who has been the rudest. that's easy. so i mean, this is obviously
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very personal to you. it's not personal to me. >> listen, they -- they're staying in to -- >> marco rubio -- marco rubio has a decision to make. does he want to destroy his political career by staying in a race that he obviously is not going to win, and he keeps getting worse in the polls every week. >> well, i mean, maybe he will. maybe he'll read your column and rethink his strategy of staying in for florida, but i don't think they do. i think they recognize that part of their objective is to deprive trump of his delegates. >> could be interesting. i guess that's something. yeah. tomorrow night, joe -- >> mika. mika, if he does that, you know what he'll do? >> what's he going to do? >> he's going to change the world. >> he is! because he's going to lift that hammer! i'm sorry, nicolle. i think we have some of these pills. i'll pick them up for you. tomorrow night chuck todd hosts
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a town hall with marco rubio here on msnbc. still ahead this morning on "morning joe," republican presidential candidate john kasich joins us as he -- he has now leap-frogged marco rubio in the polls ahead of tonight's vote in michigan. we'll talk to the president of the club for growth whose super pac is pumping millions into the effort to stop donald trump. but first, bill karins with what's expected to be a dangerous day of weather in some parts of the country. bill. >> right up there with the headlines with the politics. severe storms already this morning. yesterday we had some in colorado. this will spread across the deep south today. in colorado we had a ton of hail, covered the ground completely in a lot of areas. made for slippery driving. look at that! ooh. let's get into this. strong storms roll in through south-central texas. abilene. they'll head up to dallas-fort worth. east coast. beautiful weather continues. three days in a row. 75 in early march in d.c. it doesn't happen often. tomorrow record highs into new
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england. the severe threat was of greatest concern. 15 million people at risk today. enhanced risk for san antonio to corpus christie, austin to houston. late today, into tonight and during the overnight hours. this is how it plays out. isolated and strong storms today, tomorrow. flood threat is huge. could see up to a foot of rain along the texas-louisiana border. new york city. 75 tomorrow with record highs. beautiful shot this morning live in the big apple. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. ♪
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let's look at the democrats now. 147 delegates at stake today in michigan. in a new monmouth poll released yesterday out of that state shows hillary clinton leading bernie sanders by 13 points. that survey was conducted before sunday night's debate in flint. that comes as sanders' senior strategist tad devine wouldn't rule out the senator as a possible running mate for clinton. devine emphasized that no conversation surrounding sanders
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as a potential vice presidential nominee have taken place but that he believes the senator would consider it if it was done the right and proper way. here is what clinton had to say on the topic during a town hall. >> would you tap him to be your vp choice? >> let's not get ahead of ourselves. my gosh. i don't -- i don't want to think any further ahead than tomorrow and the michigan primary. i can't do that! >> mark halperin, you know, i don't think she would do that. does anybody? >> no. >> no. >> elizabeth warren maybe. i don't know why you all are laughing. >> everybody agrees with your assessment. >> i just think it's a strange thing to float. >> right. >> he is still running. >> right. >> go ahead, mark halperin. >> well, look, there is a little bit of unease in clinton world about what might happen in michigan today. we shouldn't prejudge the result. watching how sanders and kasich
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do in michigan today is probably the most important thing immediately before us. if she wins a solid victory there, it will be hard for him to come back by any numerical standard. the dance that she'll need to do with him to unite the party and to keep his supporters energized and find a role going forward for the rest of the year is an important thing she has to do. there are more debates on the schedule, including one this week in florida. he has a lot of money to spend and things are a little bit acrimonious between them. i don't think her job of bringing him into the fold without putting him on the ticket would be anywhere near as hard as barack obama's job of bringing hillary clinton and her supporters along eight years ago? >> gene, if hillary clinton has a strong showing tonight in michigan, do we start saying that it's all over but the crying for bernie sanders? >> yeah. yeah. i think we do. i mean, look, if he can surprise everybody in michigan -- it's
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the kind of state where he could potentially do well. mark is right. let's see how he does tonight. but, if he gets creamed by double digits in michigan tonight it's hard to imagine where he's going to -- where he is really going to beat her. and she'll be way ahead in delegates. and i think we'll start, you know, calling her the presumptive nominee, i think. we still have a whole bunch of primaries next week. but it's really tough for bernie if he gets really blasted in michigan. >> all right. the must-read opinion pages straight ahead on "morning joe." stay with us. at mfs investment management, we believe in the power of active management. by debating our research to find the best investments. by looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. and by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on long-term value. we actively manage with expertise and conviction.
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uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. the rubio campaign has reportedly already drafted plans to overtake trump in a contested convention. >> you have kasich coming out today saying he sees a pathway for himself at the convention that's called being anointed at the convention. >> ah, democracy, where every vote counts as long as the vote doesn't go against the people who control the party in which case they'll disregard your vote, replace it with their vote and then every vote will count. ah, democracy. ahead this morning. governor john kasich will be our guest, and his wife karen will also join us from the trail. plus, bill crystal is pushing the idea of a third-party candidate if donald trump wins the nomination.
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and that is why you invest. the best returns aren't just measured in dollars. td ameritrade®. i know words. i have the best words. this is your [ bleep ]. >> he gets to the namitiominati they're going to sue his [ bleep ]. >> they'll beat the [ bleep ]. >> they're ripping the [ bleep ]. >> what the hell are we doing? >> that was one the new super pac ads playing in florida right now targeting donald trump. nbc's first read is crunching the numbers for why florida and ohio matter so much in the republican race for president. right now donald trump leads ted cruz by 87 delegates heading into today's contests. those are primaries in michigan, mississippi, idaho and hawaii. washington, d.c., holds its
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party convention on saturday. so, judging from the percentages of delegates won in the previous states this cycle, trump's lead on cruz would expand only slightly by march 12th to just over 100. and that's what makes this winner-take-all race in florida and also inn ohio so critical. if he wins both states he would need to capture 52% of the remaining delegates to hit the magic number of 1237. if trump wins florida and john kasich takes ohio, trump would then need to lock down 59% of the remaining delegates. and if trump takes neither florida nor ohio, the remaining percentage he would need to win jumps to 69%. so joining us now, editor of "the weekly standard," bill kristol for the must-read
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opinion pages. couple of good ones. i have the "sun sentinel" here. it's the opposite of an endorsement for many candidates. the editorial board is not going to make an endorsement in florida's presidential primary because the kind of person who should be running is not in the race. we recognize that marco rubio and ted cruz are the party's best shot at stopping trump. if rubio can secure florida's winner-take-all primary and certain other cards play out, perhaps trump won't cross the finish line and another candidate can emerge at a brokered convention but a vote for rubio should be more than a protest vote. rubio lacks the experience, work ethic and gravitas needed to be president. he has not earned your vote. joe? >> sounds like an anti-endorsement for marco rubio from people who know him best. you hear that an awful lot across the state of florida. i wont to bring in bill kristol.
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bill, you look at some of the numbers coming, what mika put out about florida, ohio. there is still a perfect, obviously, if -- if cruz or rubio can win florida, if kasich can win ohio, then you could get your wish. this could actually go to a brokered convention. what does it look like then? you're talking about an independent possibly running. but play it out, if it does go to a brokered convention. who would you prefer to take the nomination? >> yeah. i would much prefer for the republicans to nominate someone other other than trump. i think the odds of a contested convention are pretty high. as you say, trump right now is winning about 35% of the votes so far and about 43% of the delegates. so if he gets up to the high 40s or above 50 he will be the nominee. if he slides down a little bit, he may well not be the nominee. it's not a matter of thwarting the voters. it's about respecting the 60% of
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voters who didn't vote for trump. florida and ohio are key. missouri, north carolina are big states. cruz could do well in southern unt illinois. the florida question that, joe, you were discussing with nicolle, as a tactical matter is tough. i can make a case. one of my colleagues was emailing last night, complicated calculations that rubio staying in cost cruz and kasich votes in states like missouri and north carolina. for the shot of getting all 99 in florida, probably worth it at this point. in any way, marco rubio is entitled to take a shot at his home state. i respect him for staying in and trying to win it. if he doesn't win it, he'll get out of the race. we have a big debate thursday night. maybe he'll wait to see how he does in that debate. maybe he'll dramatically get out after beating up trump for two hours. that would be exciting.
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i stick with my basic proposition that trump is the frontrunner but it could be a contested convention. cruz could end up with as many or more delegates than trump. the "wall street journal" editorial board writes, donald trump may pile up more than enough delegates in the primaries to make his gop presidential nomination this summer a formality. but what if he doesn't? mr. trump, ted cruz and their media mouthpieces are claiming it would be political theft to choose the nominee at a contested convention. these timid souls need an education in party rules, political history and muscular democracy. there is no moral right to the nomination because a candidate wins 40% or even 49% of the delegates. he needs a majority. parties set this public requirement because they exist to win elections. if the businessman can't rally a majority at the convention, then he can't unite the gop enough to beat hillary clinton.
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makes a good point. >> bill, how do you gain this out at the convention? say trump doesn't get the majority of delegates that he needs there but he has a plurality. he has a huge army of voters that come with him. what does it look like in cleveland to you? >> a lot depends on how much of a plurality and will he have closed strong. will it look as if he really is the choice for the party, even though he's a little below 50. or will he be fading at be at 37% and cruz at 34 and kasich and rubio have a decent chunk. a lot depends psychologically on whether it looks like you're reflecting the will of the voters in not nominating trump or defying the will of the voters. it depends on psychology and the absolute numbers. it will be a mess. if you're a republican, you'll have a messy convention. from my point of view a messy convention that nom nates someone other than donald trump is manageable. i think a lot of the trump supporters come back at the end?
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humphrey left the '68 convention down 28 points and ended up losing by one point. would have beaten nixon if the campaign went on three more days. if trump is the nominee, i personally think he does badly in the fall. >> we have had super pacs focusing fire on donald trump. big meeting in rga, in park city, conservative thinkers, money people in sea island, georgia, pockets of people trying to figure out how to do a slow bleed on donald trump so he doesn't get to the majority of delegates. is it too late for that strategy to work right now? >> it's not. and today will give us more indication, as saturday did, about whether trump is stable, rising or perhaps falling. we're only a month away from new hampshire. two things have changed since then regarding the capacity of others to stop trump. one is the anti-trump effort has geared up. there is real money behind it. not as much as some would like. but there is money for ad
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campaigns and voter communications that could change things. a month ago none of the people who are rivals to trump would have considered teaming up. there is now talk at the highest levels of the republican party about the prospect of could there be some sort of either teaming up by having somebody get out of the race and throw their support to a different candidate or actually teaming up and basically running as a ticket. some combination, kasich, rubio and cruz. could two of them team up in a way that might provide the necessary counter-weight to trump to get to the convention and say, this is our team, we've got a bunch of delegates. donald trump does not have a majority. let's talk about it under the rules of the party. >> bill kristol. good to have you on the show. >> thanks, mika. >> you can always have that wishful thinking. >> i do my best. keep hope alive. coming up, live to a polling place in michigan where the vote there could go a long way in shaping next week's critical contest in ohio. plus, whoever wins the white
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house will face the immediate threat of isis. we're going to talk to retired navy intelligence operator malcolm nance who is sizing up conflicting strategies against the terror group. "morning joe" is coming right back. before earning enough cash back from bank of america to take their act to the next level... before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time... 2% back at the grocery store... and 3% back on gas... vince of the flying branzinos got a bankamericard cash rewards credit card,
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on fridays i'll miss picking out the game balls with my equipment guys and talking football with the broadcast crews before the game and afterwards i'll miss recapping the game with my dad and checking to see if the giants
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won and calling eli as we're both on our team buses. i'll miss the handshake with tom brady and the plane rides after a big win with 53 team mates standing in the aisles laughing and celebrating during the whole flight. >> a month after the super bowl winning finale to his 18th season as a professional quarterback, peyton manning formally announced his retirement yesterday. in an emotional speech the five-team mvp looked back on his historic career, thanking those who were with him along the way and spoke about the seemingly little things that he'll miss. he closed the session with a single word, his often repeated cadence before taking a snap. omaha. the news at the top of the show. after seven days of testimony a jury ruled in favor of sports caster erin andrews in her lawsuit against the stalker who secretly recorded her in her hotel room and the group that owns and manages that hotel. andrews awarded $55 million in a unanimous decision.
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her stalker is responsible for 51% of that amount. the hotel companies are responsible for the rest. andrews sued for $75 million for emotional distress after a video taken of her undressing in her nashville hotel room eight years ago went viral. she claimed the hotel room granted barrett's request to the room next to her. why michigan matters. especially if you're john kasich. we'll talk to the presidential candidate who is looking to turn the momentum there into a home-state win in ohio. plus, the governor's wife karen joins us from the campaign trail. first, former ted cruz staffer rick tyler and the "new york times" frank bruney comparing marco rubio's campaign to a christmas fruit cake. a gift that you kind of want to give back. >> see, it's not just some people.
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what are you voting? come on. tomorrow. raise your right hand, everybody. do you swear that you're going to vote for donald trump tomorrow? raise that hand. i love you! i love you! all right. you can't go back. no, i'm only kidding. if you want to go back, you can. but i don't think you will, because nobody is going to do the job that i'm doing. >> a vote for any other candidate, a vote for marco rubio or a vote for john kasich, is a vote for donald trump. >> a vote for john kasich or a vote for ted cruz in florida is a vote for donald trump. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's tuesday, march 8th. another election day! [ laughter ] >> you know, at least -- at least they have got their talking points down and at least, after all this time, they figured out how to unite against
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donald trump. >> how? >> it's unbelievable. >> i can't figure out how. >> they just aren't. they're still saying a vote for everybody else but me is a vote for donald trump. they're going to figure it out way too late, possibly. it's fascinating. >> that's been the narrative. i think everybody has realized everything way too late. with us former communications director for president george w. bush, nicolle wallace. msnbc contributor mike barnicle. mark halperin. eugene robinson. and joining the conversation "new york times" columnist frank bruni and former ted cruz campaign communications director and now political contributor here at msnbc, rick tyler. good to have you all on board. >> good morning. >> 150 delegates on the line in four states today. republicans hold primaries in michigan, mississippi and idaho along with a caucus in hawaii.
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democratic primary voters head to the polls in michigan and mississippi today, a total of 188 delegates at stake. michigan alone will award 147. in a new monmouth university poll in michigan shows donald trump in the lead on the republican side. trump is ahead by 13 points, 36% to ted cruz at 23%. john kasich in a close third at 21% and marco rubio at 13%. that is below the 15% threshold to qualify for at-large delegates. a recent poll out of mississippi shows trump ahead of ted cruz by 24 points, 41 to 17. joe. >> mark halperin, it certainly looks like it's going to be another big day for donald trump, who had a -- this weekend was a mixed bag at best. you had three caucus states. he under performs in caucus states. we have primaries today. certainly looks like the two biggest. michigan and mississippi. at least based on these polls. could be a strong day for donald
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trump. >> look, for all the talk of the convention scenarios and kasich potentially rising, cruz doing well, donald trump is in a commanding position to be the nominee. if he performs well today in these two states and if he does well in the debate on thursday he can carry that momentum into next tuesday and wrap up basically the number nation. it's -- the onus is on the other folks to stop him. it will be interesting to see now john kasich does in michigan and how ted cruz with the endorsement of the governor does in mississippi and whether trump's performance over the last couple of days is an indication that, again, the opposition to him is hardening as opposed to him ending strong here in this period. >> frank bruni, it seems to me, if we're talking about endorsements from any governors, if i were a candidate running in 2016 and i got a call from a governor that said that he was going to endorse me or she was going to endorse me, i would say, don't you dare! i mean, it -- it -- it does not work this year at all, does it?
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>> it has not been doing candidates a lot of good. this is a year when voters seem to be doing the opposite of what they're told. marco rubio is a great example of this. we were told for a long time, this is your candidate. he'll be great in the general election and voters are saying thanks but no thanks. so yeah, an endorsement is not all it's cracked up to be this cycle. >> mike barnicle, you actually had candidates that got endorsements from i think it was the past three states finished in third place. you really -- this is an anti-establishment year, and whether it's, you know, a governor -- governor endorsing you or members of congress, or anything that smacks of the establishment, it seems to actually blow up in the candidate's face. >> well, step outside. look at the process and when it began. the cover of "time" magazine. rand paul. he's now working at a post office someplace in kentucky. [ laughter ] >> he disappeared months ago. you step outside and you ask anybody you bump into, what do
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you think about the election, the presidential election? they say, i'm trying to figure out sanders or trump. you say what? the reason they're thinking sanders or trump is because all of the others are just asterisks to them. they're meaningless. >> last week mitt romney coming out with a speech. in any other election year, a historic, unprecedented condemnation from the party's previous nominee against the current presumptive nominee would have been earth-shattering. donald trump could say, they are they are again the establishment leader, the guy who lost, doesn't like me. >> they didn't come out and endorse anybody. it was also historic. you have never seen a previous standard-bearer of a party come out simply to announce their opposition. you've seen them come out and endorse. >> it's like obamacare. they rail against it with no good options. >> romney is making robo-calls for rubio.
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he hasn't formally endorsed him. >> that's going to help. [ laughter ] >> the thing is, this is, mika, as we have been saying all along, this is 30 years of the republican establishment and washington, d.c., not keeping their word. the chickens have all come home to roost. and it seems that they have gathered around two candidates, donald trump and ted cruz. and we really -- we don't talk about ted cruz enough. the fact that ted cruz is as close as he is to donald trump in the delegate count is fairly extraordinary. what makes it even more extraordinary is he's doing that despite the fact that he's not doing as well with evangelicals as people would have expected. if cruz were holding on to evangelicals as much as everybody expected him to, he could be tied with donald trump right now. so there are some -- quite a few stories out there. ba again, cruz, the ultimate
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outsider, even though he is a senator. >> he is an outsider for a lot of reasons. after "today" atoday all ey next tuesday. are we getting to the fruit cake? 367 delegates at stake. a quarter of the 1,237 needed to nominate at the convention. in the latest poll. florida's winner take all primary for 99 delegates. trump's lead is in the single digits. a new monmouth poll puts trump at 38% to rubio's 30%. cruz at 17, kasich at 10. early voting in florida began on saturday. 27% of those polled had already cast their ballots. rubio was leading trump among them. trump leads 42 to 26 among those who have yet to vote. a breakdown by region shows rubio leading trump in south florida 41 to 30.
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trump doubles rubio in central florida. 44 to 22. tight race in north florida where trump is up by four points. the poll sampled registered republicans who either voted in the 2012 or 2014 primaries or in both of the last two general elections and who say they are likely to vote in next week' primary. also next tuesday ohio will offer up 66 delegates in a winner-take-all primary. public policy polling finds the race tied in the buckeye state with the slight edge to trump. 38% to governor john kasich's 35%. inside the four-point margin of error. cruz is way down at 15%, and rubio at 5%. joe, he is -- he is neck-and-neck with home-staters. >> yeah. oh, yeah. no, it's fascinating. trump is keeping it competitive everywhere. rick tyler, we were talking about ted cruz just a minute ago. he is doing very well despite the fact that he is not
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performing to the level that many expect him to perform with evangelicals. does ted cruz have a way forward to winning outright, or would he have to just depend on getting the most delegates and winning a brokered convention? >> i think it's just winning a brokered convention are somewhat minimal. i think he has a path forward. in florida he is gambling that he can take enough votes away from marco rubio, which would probably give donald trump the lead in florida. that will give him 99 delegates. the risk there is that donald trump would become strong but the other part of that is that marco rubio would have no path forward. and he believes that, if he could have donald trump in a one-on-one through the rest of the states, particularly closed primaries -- so tonight we have two -- we have idaho and hawaii. hawaii is a caucus. cruz has done well in the caucuses in the closed primaries. donald trump not as well. the other thing you want to watch for, joe, is that in louisiana when we saw the early voting. donald trump had a commanding lead.
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yet on election day he was tied with cruz. so he only lost -- cruz only lost to donald trump marginally in louisiana. if that is a trend, in other words, donald trump is collapsing and cruz is gaining, then you may see that tonight. and then tuesday obviously is the day we'll -- hopefully we'll have some more clarity. but we haven't had any in the race so far. joining us now from raleigh, north carolina, nbc news correspondent hallie jackson. what's the strategy today for the cruz campaign? >> when you look at today, mika, you're looking at a place like idaho where ted cruz feels he can compete and be strong. in michigan i think the campaign is looking to get above the 15% threshold and pick up delegates. you look later into the next seven days, a week from today and what they're hoping to do on super tuesday too. and that is compete in places like north carolina, in places like missouri. ideally they'll get this down. they hope, basically, eight days from today, to a two-man race.
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that's what cruz has been angling for. that's what donald trump wants too. with john kasich and marco rubio in the mix there are questions about how that happens but that's the strategy for the cruz campaign right now. rick makes a good point about louisiana. i think that's what they'll look for in mississippi to see if the late deciders come over to ted cruz or stick with donald trump or maybe go to another candidate. mississippi may be a bellwether there. there is a lot of play today. and a week from today with the cruz campaign. they're feeling confident like i said about idaho. we'll see how the rest of the race shapes up. >> nbc's hallie jackson. thank you so much. frank, the fruit cake. >> are you calling me a freuit cake. >> no. you write with a fruit cake. am i right? you write in the "new york times," time to cuddle with cruz? i'm already uncomfortable. that's not a thought i want in my mind. the mental image doesn't work. >> the headline is meant to intrigue you.
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>> i just brisled. just when you think it can't get worse for the sober minded cool-headed traditionalists in the republican party it does. they see their gold-plated gate crasher taken to a peg to find themselves faced with the prospect of kissing up to ted cruz. what in the world ever happened to marco rubio? to the rubio who was supposed to be the party's savior and hope, i mean. the rubio who made donor's hearts beat faster. the rubio they kept foisting on republican voters except the donors didn't see it as foisting. they saw it as a benevolent instruction in which candidate was really best for all involved, which could deny democrats a third consecutive term in the white house. rubio is essentially the christmas fruit cake of the 2016-cycle presented as a gift perceived as something neither appetizing or especially nutritive. >> and never opened. >> passed on to somebody else and never opened. >> nicolle wallace, is joe the
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only one who has some questions that you consider deeply personal about marco rubio? >> my only point is rubio has as much of a rationale to stay in and deprive trump of delegates. joe and i had the conversation about the only people who think rubio would be president are republicans and democrats. >> maybe rubio. >> i said he was polarizing within the field of republicans. chris christie used his one bullet to take him out before new hampshire. i mean, he didn't have a lot of allies within the republican field and certainly not at the grass roots. >> in fairness to rubio. we've gone to campaign events. he can be absolutely fantastic on the stump. he wasn't invented from scratch. they saw something there. we've all seen it when he is at his best. what's fascinating to me, when the history of this race is written, is way back before anyone voted, and marco rubio was never leading in the polls, we were being told, you know, he is the candidate. then voting happened and he
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didn't win anything. almost minnesota. whatever. puerto rico. we're still told he's the candidate. he has never been the candidate. it's never actually come through in the actions of voters. >> he never topped a poll. >> absolutely. >> joe. >> mark halperin, why don't we talk about this for a second. we have, for over a year and a half, been listening to people on tv talking about how great he is. and while the cameras were off we would look at each other, shrug our shoulders and go, i don't get it. i don't get it. what -- he's good, but he's not the republican savior. and yet the shocking thing is, as frank just said, he was never ahead in any polls. there was never any data to suggest this. as you and i both kept asking a year ago, what state does he win. there is not a state -- an early state that he can win. we said he doesn't have a core group of supporters. he doesn't have a ground game. he doesn't have a narrowed focus group to go after like ted cruz.
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you can't identify who the marco rubio voter is. and yet, everybody said, marco rubio is the candidate. the upshot always had him at number one. donald trump at number three despite the fact that donald trump led in every single poll. all the data suggested this was going to happen. nate silver, constantly wrong about what was going to happen. all the data, always suggested that donald trump was going to be in this position. and yet all we heard for a year was that marco rubio was going to do it despite the fact there was no evidence to suggest that, mark. none whatsoever. >> well, he lacked a bunch of things. he lacked a signature issue. he has a tax plan. i defy anybody on the set to describe his tax plan. he lacked real fund raising strength. raising almost no money on the internet. think about his profile compared to barack obama. amazing that he never became a great internet fund raiser. he raised money through a super pac and an outside program that
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doesn't announce its supporters. and no early state strategy. he lacked a theory of the case and how he would deal with ted cruz and donald trump and their strength with big, important republican electorates. >> joe. one other added element here as to why he was so hot briefly, at the early stages of this campaign. marco rubio had something that is essential in this instant culture of ours when he came on the scene. he had a story. a compelling story that he could deliver. >> right. >> now, the fact that he had no substance once he got on the stage running for president, that's an afterthought. he had a story. we love stories. >> yeah, willie. he has told it once or twice, willie, hasn't he? >> he has. if you were making a candidate in a lab, he would be a pretty good one, right? young guy. senator from the most important swing state in the general election. latino background. immigrant parents. he has a great story to tell. turns out, rick tyler, because
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you know from experience in this campaign, in the year of donald trump and in the year of bernie sanders, the candidate chosen from the corner table at the capital grill is not the one who is going to win this election. >> loses. they lose every time. exactly. rick tyler, when you set up a race -- and this is what i -- again, i just don't understand rubio's team when they set this race up. whether you're running for president of the united states or whether you did what i did, running as a little congressman. you figure out -- this is my group. this is the group i'm going to go after. these are the people i'm going to drag to voting booth. and i'm going to expand. i'm going to get them. they're going to be my core, whether it's evangelicals or property rights people or whether it's gun owners or whether it's, you know, whatever it is. i'm going to get this core, and i'm going to drag them in. there is no generalist theory of the case. you have to figure out who your people are and how you're going to get them out to vote. and then you expand beyond that.
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isn't that something that marco rubio's team never did? they just said, hey, we're going to make everybody like us. >> i think that's right. in the case of the cruz campaign we decided initially that we were going to go after the tea party. that's how cruz was identified. he solidified the tea party and moved into the evangelical race. he hasn't won as many evangelicals as you would have thought. donald trump wanted to go after the blue collar worker. the people getting hammered. he has done a good job of that. people actually believing he'll help create jobs. marco rubio brought to the dance by the tea party. he got another ride home. hes whole campaign has been somewhat of an identity crisis because he's been seen as the establishment yet he keeps talking about how he is the conservative but the gang of eight was his signature accomplishment in the senate. and that just was not the message that conservatives want to hear. he has not really had a constituency. and he has not been able to raise small dollar amounts. he raised large dollar amounts from the chamber of commerce
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types. he has had no theory of the case of who he would bring to the polls and what he would expand on. you're absolutely right. >> gene, he was always afraid to tell people what he stood for. try to get him to explain his abortion position. and here is a guy who actually could have had a good lane as, i say moderate. there are not moderates left in this republican party. but at least somebody that was moderate tempttemperamentally. that would go after the suburban voters. you can't go after the suburban voters at the same time as suggesting a woman can't get an abortion if she's going to die. i don't feel like i belong in my own country anymore. like, he never would embrace who he should have embraced. if --
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>> exactly. >> he was a tea partier, he abandoned the tea party. fine. if that's what you're going to do, do it. then go to a group, embrace them and drag them to the polls. he never did that. >> he never made the decision who he was as a politician because, as you said, he came in with the tea party. then he led the gang of eight. so that's where he was, right? i mean, he was for -- he was taking more moderate positions. then he switched back, and so now he's trying to be as extreme as trump, as extreme as cruz, but with a nicer smile. it's not working for him, clearly. and i agree with what you said earlier, which is that he really has a decision to make now. he totally messed up this presidential campaign, through some fault of his own and through circumstances. so he is young. he's got qualities. he can be terrific on the stump. he has got to make a decision
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about, you know, does he get creamed in his home state. and do perhaps irreparable damage to his political future. or does he, you know, decide that discretion is the better part of valor and he'll fight another day. i would assume and i would actually hope that he was thinking this through. >> yeah. you know, mika, donald trump, on the other hand, knew exactly who he was going after. he was going to go after the so-called reagan democrats, working-class republicans, people who had been left behind by globalization and the technology revolution. and in the process, because he knew exactly who he was going to go after, an amazing thing happened. he also dipped into the evangelical groups. he also dipped into the gun owners' groups. he also dipped into all these other groups because he knew exactly who he was going to go after. and it was the disaffected, it was those that had been left behind by the last 30 years of republican and democratic rule.
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and because he knew exactly who he was going after, knew exactly who his audience was, he actually attracted from other groups of voters as well. >> in a way they're single-issue voters and they're for trump. thank you frank bruni for the fruit cake. you can take it back now. washington doesn't want it either. we want to mention the extended paper back version of your book "where you will go is not who you'll be." i need this. >> that time of year. >> i have to give this to my kids. now available. still ahead this hour presidential candidate donald trump joins us live. john kasich joins the conversation. up next, chuck todd of the "new york times." can anyone capture enough delegates for the nomination? if so, where is it going it happen? you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. is it becoming a better professor by being a more adventurous student?
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a poll just released out of illinois shows donald trump leading in that state by double digits. you just took a deep breath,
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nick confessore. are you okay? >> the field is crowded behind him. chicago tr "chicago tribune" poll. illinois is one of the key states to vote on march 15th. joining us is nick confessore and chuck todd. chuck, this will be big tomorrow. the rubio town hall. >> it should be. i would worry about two fourth place finishes tonight in michigan and mississippi. two states john kasich has been putting -- he and kasich are the ones -- they're basically sharing from the same pool. he could have two fourths tonight. a brutal thing to do. >> incredibly brutal. nick had a concept, joe, as to why rubio was considered a really good option and why so
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many got behind him so early. >> i think rubio offered the chance for the party elite and the donor class to try to win the presidency without making changes on policy. same policies, new rapper, new messenger. but same policies, right. his tax plan is actually a huge capital gains tax cut to zero it out to nothing. which is a big tax cut for rich people. same old policy plan. turned out that there is a policy problem for the party. on trade. on entitlements and other issues. >> national security. >> and national security. >> i think that's where trump i think has surprised the most republicans, by being so far outside of the box on national security. rubio was very traditional and is losing to trump. joe, donald trump will be joining us, i hear, in about ten minutes. >> yeah. you know, the problem -- and nicolle, you can talk to this. the problem with the republican party over the past 30 years is
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they haven't -- and i'll say we haven't -- developed a message that appeals to the working-class americans economically in a way that what -- how donald trump's does. you look at the fact, we talk about cutting capital gains taxes. 10,000 people who are in the crowd cheering for donald trump, they are never going to get a capital gains cut because it doesn't apply. we talk about getting rid of the death tax. the death tax is not going to impact the 10,000 people in the crowd for donald trump. the free trade deals we talk about. they never trickle down to the 10,000 people. >> you sound like bernie sanders. >> guess what -- >> it's right, though! >> but herein lies the problem with the republican party. it never trickles down. those people in trump's crowds, those are all the ones that lost the jobs when they got moved to mexico and elsewhere. the republican donor class were the ones that got rich off of it because their capital moved overseas and they made higher
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profits. >> add wall street, joe. >> add wall street. >> we let the democrats paint our side as being on the side of wall street. our base doesn't benefit from the largesse of wall street. when occupy wall street went on the democrats eventually embraced it. we stayed silent. our voters don't benefit from profits on wall street but we allowed democrats to paint the republican party as being a puppet of wall street when our voters don't benefit from wall street. >> there is actually a fascinating debate about conservatism that could be taking place inside the party. >> it's not happening. >> it's not happening. trump and cruz and cruz to a lesser extent. you have the old definition of conservatism, the old taft definition, right, where you were like, skeptical on trade deals, not so interventionist, a little tighter borders. small c conservative. then marco rubio, sort of the modern definition which is a little more open when it comes
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to the issue of immigration, open on trade. >> yes. right. >> and more interventionist. the whole idea that the fulcrum of the world is right here in the united states. >> trying to open up socially. joe. there is the big tent that they talk about. and i think it's on fire, i really do. >> the social issues are a distraction to the party because it's missing the economic. >> it is -- it is -- the definition of conservatism that marco rubio preaches is conservatism as defined by the donor class, as defined by the wealthiest republicans. it is not the conservatism of the rank and file that are coming out to trump's rallies. people who act like donald trump has like invented something new is out of -- it shows their complete ignorance. these people have been around. all of the ross perot people of '92 all voted for people like me in '94. pat buchanan in '96 had more impact on the future of the
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republican party than bob dole or anybody else. and that strain of populism stayed within the republican party for 20 years. and yet, you kept getting people like george w. bush, john mccain, mitt romney. it was only a matter of time until the populists found a candidate they could rally around that didn't need donor class money. that's the key, nick confessore. they didn't need donor class money. they could speak out against the trade deals that the donor class insisted on. they could speak out against, you know, the slashing tax cuts for the rich, and they didn't pay a political price. so they could go out and say, hey, what would it be like if we could deliver a populist message and not get trashed by wall street. donald trump tried it and he's doing well because of it. >> he is rick santorum with tens of millions of dollars in free media and, you know, 5 million twitter followers and the
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ability to kind of catalyze all of this on the campaign trail in a way that mike huckabee and santorum could not. it's a lot of the same message. >> chuck. >> the party only tried to placate the working class party on social issues. guns and abortion. talk to them on social grounds. never has had the policy conversation. has sort of almost put blinders on with the policy conversation. to go to nicolle's point. occupy wall street. woo hoo! stayed away. democrats grabbed it out of their own fear, i think, frankly. >> right. right. >> in knowing -- >> it was real. >> it was real. the republicans missed it. >> yeah. >> chuck, and how interesting that the republicans said, okay, listen, we're going to have all of these trade deals and tax cuts that benefit our wealthiest donor class, but we'll give them the social issues. we'll give them abortion, we'll give them gay marriage. we'll give them guns and they'll
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vote for us. what we're a finding this year is they'll even support a guy who says planned parenthood is good if he comes with an economic approach that they feel could actually help them in the future. >> it's the children of reagan democrats. that's why michigan today is so symbolically interesting and important i think to donald trump in many ways. michigan is sort of the -- with the canary in the coal mine in 1980 for ronald reagan and it was the first time that the working class, you know, democrats started flirting with the republican party. and here they are. the working-class democrats are now the heart and soul of the republican party or, if -- if republican establishment has their way they shove them out again. >> right. >> it's binary. >> it might be. >> all right. chuck todd, thank you. we'll be watching mtp daily and tomorrow night we'll watch your big town hall with marco rubio in florida. nick confessore, stay with us. coming up, republican
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presidential candidate donald trump joins us live in just a moment. and at 8:30. john kasich and his wife karen join us live from the campaign trail. as we go to break, a live look at a polling place that's now open in flint, michigan, on this election day.
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39 past the hour. joani joining us, executive director of the terra project on strategy, tactics and ready ideology. malcolm nance. a combat veterans and retired navy intelligence collections operator. his book. "defeating isis" is out today. it really -- at some point defeating isis boils down to, malcolm, understanding exactly who they are and how they fight. do you think that the candidates, especially the republican frontrunner, has a firm hold on that concept? >> wow, that's a great question right out of the box. well, i think that there is a broad, broad and deep misunderstanding of who isis is
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idealogically and operationally. everybody thinks that you can just bomb these people. we have been fighting this exact same group since 1991. this is al qaeda's extended ideology. i don't think he understands the depth of isis' commitment and certainly not the ability to root them out. and i certainly hope that he gets some form of advice from combat people. >> where does torture play a role in understanding the enemy and the impact it has? >> first off, torture absolutely positively does not work. i was in charge of the program for the department -- for the united states navy. i ran waterboards. waterboarding program. we teach and we have an entire history, 239 years of u.s. military personnel captive, since the french and indian wars. it doesn't work? >> why doesn't it work? >> all it does is pushes a person to say something.
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that's why we have an entire survival resistance and escape program to teach people to say the right thing but not give up information. we teach. it doesn't work. >> joe, jump in. >> is it your position that water-boarding didn't work on sheikh mohammed? a lot of intel suggests it did. >> intelligence is intelligence. if a person opens his mouth -- the reason is -- we teach this. that person is wasting your time. we have an entire department of defense program that's been going since the korean war to teach that the battlefield is across the table. as a matter of fact, joe, the comment you made in 2007 that water boarding was more akin to a fraternity prank where i wrote my article about water boarding. it doesn't work. there is documentation it doesn't work. because the guy opened his mouth and maybe 200 applications of water does not mean that you
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have successfully gotten intelligence. you have gotten him to speak. >> i don't remember talking about a fraternity prank but i certainly do know that the perception that you're trying to get people to talk while they're being water-boarded. we're talking about something that's in the past tense that will never be used again. >> true. >> but it's not like you get people to talk while you're water-boarding them. you do talk to them across the table after it happened, and at least people that i talked to that were involved in the program said that there -- especially with kalid sheikh mohammed, they get reams and reams of actionable intelligence. when you said it doesn't work, that seems to go against the actual findings of the cia operatives who performed it on mohammed. >> there is a difference between scientific study and anecdotes. none of that information has been made public and none can be
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validated. if it took them ten years to get what you call reams of actionable intelligence and they had to sift through everything he said, he's wasted ten years of your time. >> malcolm, you know what you're talking about here. i don't mean to be disrespectful. >> i actually taught the program. i know a little something about it. >> of course you do. i don't know much about trigonometry, but i can read articles from the top trig experts across the planet. if they draw certain conclusions, i can go with it. i think you know enough about reading an intel reports and reading newspaper reports to know that kalid sheikh mohammed gave up actionable intelligence after being water-boarded. are you denying that's the case? >> i'm going to deny that's the case because there is absolutely no open-source information to say that that is true. i can tell you what he did do based on the open-source intelligence that's been put out in the senate intelligence report. he wasted our time by giving us scenario after scenario which was worthless.
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like the brooklyn -- supposed brooklyn bridge attack. that guy had to have gone back to his cell and chuckled to himself on how he weighasted ou time and wasted intelligence resources. >> you just described as how the intel community arrived at the legal rationale for enhanced interrogation methods because he was wasting our time. they actually used it on three people. i find it ironic that it's a focus of yours. >> it's a focus of mine because, like i said, we teach ythousand of u.s. service members every year to do this same thing, to waste the enemy's time. to ob ffuscate. we want you to waste something that came out that was valuable with a myriad of things that were worthless. khalid sheikh mohammed did just that. >> let's bring you back,
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malcolm. we'll talk about this more. >> we have just scratched the surface. >> the book is defeating isis, who they are, how they fight and what they believe. right now, joining us by phone, republican presidential candidate donald trump. donald, good to have you on board. >> good morning. >> morning! so i think i'll start off by asking you a question i have asked you three times now since we're a talking about foreign policy. i think it was 20 days ago now our town hall where you said you would be announcing a foreign policy team. you said then it would be a week. last time we talked last week you said it would be soon. you have mentioned one name, jeff sessions. who are on your foreign policy team? who are the giants who will be -- >> i'm not doing it this morning, mika. you do always ask me that question. i said i would have it in due time. i have been meeting with some tremendous people and i haven't made exactly my decision yet but you'll have it in due time. >> is there a team? >> yes, there is a team.
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there's not a team. i'm going to be forming a team. i have met with far more than three people, and i will be forming a team at the appropriate time. >> i am just -- >> donald, there has been a lot of -- there has been a lot of talk about your alrallies where you ask people to raise their hands if they're going to support you. mika, you look upset. do you want to follow up with the foreign policy team? she's giving me that look. >> there have to be people to stand by your side and take on global strategy and some ideas that you find important that they bring to the table. who are these people? >> well, i think senator jeff sessions as an example, who wasn't on board the last time i spoke to you, because he just endorsed me last week, but i think he is a prime example. he is highly respected as senator and he is somebody i have a lot of respect for. that would be one to start off it. in addition i'm dealing with numerous other people and i will be making a decision over the fairly short period of time.
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>> all right. so donald, we -- we've been showing pictures -- we just did it one time. showed pictures of people raising their hands when you asked them to pledge that they are going to vote for you. >> right. >> in the media there have been some people who have taken still pictures to make it look like that it's hitler salutes and in fact we had one person on earlier today saying, well, if you look at the still pictures it looks very troubling. talk about what you're doing when you're having people raising their hands, and are you in any -- in any way making an attempt to emulate what hitler or anybody else did -- >> boy is that a stretch. wow! that's amazing that that would even be brought up. of course not. of course not. that's ridiculous. this is the first i've heard of it this morning. i was on the "today" show and they mentioned it and i said, what is going on here? i think it's ridiculous. >> yeah. >> it's absolutely -- you know, i have these massive rallies.
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we have 25,000 people at some of them -- and more! we're having actually a great time considering the subject matter is not so good, meaning the country is not doing well. and i say, jokingly, raise your hand if you want to -- if you swear to endorse me and swear to go vote for me. and the entire place practically laughing and having a good time raises their hands. they're just -- they're raising their hand in the form of a vote, not in the form of a salute. that is crazy. i can't believe that's even being posed. >> all of us around the table, i think, actually agreed it was equally crazy but needed to ask it. so, florida. right now you're getting absolutely hammered, about $10 million, $12 million in 30-second ads being spent against you. we see that you have an ad going up against marco rubio. are you going to actually put any money behind that ad, or are you going to rely mainly, as you said yesterday, on facebook and
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twitter to respond to over $10 million in attack ads? >> well, a little bit on facebook and twitter, but also we've put up some ads and they're good ads. and spending a couple of million dollars, maybe a few million dollars, i don't know what the final determination is, but they're up. we already have ads that are up. and i -- you know, we'll find out if they're effective. but certainly the establishment is just hammering me with ads. everybody. i had the big tournament at doral this week where adam scott won. i am watching the tournament. and i see during the ad portion i see ads against me and i am the one having the tournament. i own doral. it's sort of a weird feeling. but no, they're spending a lot of money on that. the good news is i'm up against a senator who frankly is very unpopular in florida. he doesn't go and vote. i think if he actually ran for an office there he wouldn't be elected as dog catcher. i don't think. >> donald, does it make it less likely that you can make peace
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with the establishment after this is all over because they are spending so much money in attack ads specifically directed at you? >> well, i have always gotten along with along with people, i think you understand that. i have had great relationships with people over the years. you know, i have had feuds and i have had fights with people and i have been able to get along. we will have to see. i think we can. the bottom line is, you know, the biggest story in politics is how many people are showing up to these primaries. i mean, you know, there are 50, 60, 70%, millions of additional people over four years ago. four years ago they were dying the republicans and now it's been energized. you know, instead of being given credit they take ads against me. i will tell you if i am out, if for some reason i'm out, you will lose millions and millions of potential voters out of the republican party and i don't think there's any track -- any way that the republicans can win. frankly, if you take all of these new energized people --
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people come up to me, mr. trump, i have never voted before, 40, 50 years before, this is the first time in my life i've honored. you have to see these people. they're incrediblincredible. they've never voted before many of them. and others. they're coming from the democrats, they're coming from the independents. it's the biggest story in politics what's happening with the republicans. i've done a great job and i'm not being given credit, instead they take ads against me. the funny thing is if they're successful and i don't win all these people are going away, these millions and millions of people. they are not going to vote for rubio, they are not going to vote for ted cruz. >> if they take this from you at a convention will you run as an independent? >> i don't know, joe. i don't even want to think about it now. to be honest i'm the front runner by quite a bit. cnn had me at 49 the other day, 49 to 15, i think 15 and 15 for the two of these guys. i hear rubio is getting out. there was big stories all over the place that rubio is getting out. i don't know if he's getting
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out. he probably should. he hasn't won hardly anything he probably should get out and he's not popular. he is not popular in his own state. he's really defraud the his own people and he doesn't go and vote. we will see what happens. >> mark halperin. >> mr. trump, in 2014 what was your effective tax rate and how much did you give to charity? >> well, i gave a lot of money to charity, i could release a list, i don't talk about my tax rate because i'm under audit but when it's finished i will give you my tax returns. i have also filed if you will financials with the federal elections commissions and it's almost 100 pages, you have my full financials talking about all of the things you have to talk about including worth and all of those things, cash flows, worth, very little debt, tremendous cash flow, great company, some of the greatest assets in the world, which frankly you can't learn about from a tax return. honestly you can't learn very much from a tax return, frankly almost nothing, but i filed my financial statements with the
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federal elections commission. >> all right. donald trump, thank you. i should mention you are set to join us live again tomorrow so we look forward to that. good to have you on this morning. appreciate it. >> okay. thank you very much. >> thanks, donald. governor john kasich is going to be joining us ahead this morning. i should just point out for all the eye rolling that i hear happening that if hillary clinton, marco rubio or ted cruz would like to call into the show we would take their call at any time. donald trump has proved himself to be the most accessible candidate, like it or not, but don't blame us if the other candidates are not as accessible. >> oh, yeah, listen -- by the way, we have made this offer. we've made it starting six months ago -- >> if marco rubio called us knew we'd blow through the commercial break. we'd love money on it but he can't do it. >> we would have them for three hours, any candidate that wants to pick up the phone and call us we would love to have you on. we're here for you.
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all right. i think we've underlined that one. hey, listen, we have a lot more ahead, it's really exciting. john kasich, the great john kasich, straight ahead. he can lift the hammer >> yes, he can. >> and he's going to change the world. we'll be right back. know your financial plan won't keep you up at night. know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries. with the guidance of a pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future you've alys wanted.
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his strategy hinges on florida but questions swirl fell even take it that far, plus john kasich has a home state to win on the 15th. the governor of ohio and his wife karen join us. "morning joe" is back in a moment. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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there's only you one candidate who has repeatedly beaten donald trump. there's only one candidate who can and will beat donald trump and that is our campaign. man, that guy -- and i'm a good christian but i will tell you what he walks up and he
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holds up that bible and he's there with the bible and he puts it down and then he starts lying. i call him lying ted cruz. >> i'm the only one that has any chance of beating donald trump in florida. so if you don't want donald trump to be the republican nominee you have to vote for marco rubio. >> and then we have one little marco rubio. chris hit him once, it was fine, he said the baum thing, and then he did it again and he said it again and again and again and again, and after the fifth time i was getting ready -- do you see the size of that hand? look at that. i was going to grab him to show him how strong that hand is. i was going to say, marco, i won't let you fall, i don't want you to get hurt, marco. >> once again, 150 delegates, joe, are on the line in four states today. republicans, your party holding primaries in michigan, mississippi and idaho along with hawaii, right? >> the thing is there's no doubt
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this is going to be one of the biggest days of the election leading into the biggest next week. so i'm glad that they really raised -- look at that, michigan 59 delegates, mississippi 40, idaho 32, hawaii 19. so aren't we glad, mika, that everybody raised their game the way they did? >> yeah, it was nice to see them kind of come together and really focus intellectually on the issues. but democratic primary voters will head to the polls in michigan and mississippi today. a total of 188 delegates are at stake. michigan alone will award 147. with us on set veteran columnist and msnbc contributor mike barnicle. >> former communications director for george w. bush nicolle wallace. in las vegas mark halperin and in washington associate editor of the "washington post" and msnbc political analyst eugene robinson. we've going to dive into politics, joe, but can't i just
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say erin andrews -- >> good for her. >> it probably wasn't enough money, actually. >> good for the jury. >> yeah. but good for the jury and good for her. >> what a horror. >> what a horror and what -- what an unbelievable thought that anybody thought that the other side in this had any case to go with here. >> right. >> i mean, come on. >> yeah, good for her and also the fact that the defense actually had the audacity to say that this was probably good for her career. if i were a juror i would have just handed her a blank check at that point. this is something that will live with her for the rest of her life and, you know, monica lewinsky is exactly right, she was ground zero or patient x or whatever she called herself in her ted talk for online bullying. erin andrews, though, has something that will just stay with her, yeah, forever. >> you're absolutely right. >> and, joe, one other person
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who is worthy of praise today i would submit is maria sharapova who stepped up to the plate and said, yeah, i took a banned substance, i'm sorry, i had been on something for ten years, they changed it to a banned substance recently, but i did it. unlike every guy we can think of in professional sports who says he didn't. >> i didn't do it. my head is three feet wide, but i didn't do it. >> well, yeah. and at the end -- at the end of the day and i've seen it time and time again, at the end of the day those are the people that actually survive and are forgiven by the fans or forgiven by -- >> across the board. >> excuse me. forgiven by others across the board. you had the yankees pitcher, willie, i've been in bed for three days sick so my mind is not quite as sharp as it ushl autoly is, but the yankees pitcher that went before and testified -- >> clem mondays. >> what's that? >> roger clemens?
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>> oh, no, he denied it. >> andy pettit. >> yeah, andy pettit, he admitted to t he said i took it because i was trying to recover from an injury and, you know, i'm sorry. everybody forgave him. he is not in roger clemens category, he is not in any of the other goons' categories, because he took t admitted it, it was behind him. >> sharapova says she has been taking this medication for ten years for a heart condition, she didn't know it had recently been added to the list of banned substances. m to your point by getting out ahead of the story she's probably helping herself. >> let's get back to politics. michigan is perhaps the biggest prize today. in a monmouth university poll in that state's primary shows donald trump in the lead. trump is ahead by 13 points, 36% to ted cruz at 23%, john kasich in a close third at 21% and
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marco rubio at 13%. that's below the 15% threshold to qualify for at large delegates. last night donald trump rallied thousands in madison, mississippi, where he was honored by local officials and had his supporters take an oath to vote for him. >> what are you voting? come on? tomorrow. raise your rand, everybody. do you swear that you're going to vote for donald trump tomorrow? raise that hand. i love you. i love you. all right. you can't go back. no, i'm only kidding, if you want to go back you can but i don't think you will because nobody is going to do the job that i'm doing. >> yeah, a recent poll out of mississippi shows donald trump ahead of ted cruz by 24 points, 41 to 17. meanwhile, ted cruz won the surprise endorsement of mississippi's governor republican phil bryant rallied to cruz's side which he attributed in part to his
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friendship with former texas governor rick perry. this as cruz and rubio are making the same exact argument to voters in mississippi and florida. >> a vote for any other candidate, a vote for marco rubio or a vote for john kasich is a vote for donald trump. >> a vote for john kasich or a vote for ted cruz in florida is a vote for donald trump. >> i want to talk before we start getting into the numbers because there's obviously the michigan poll, there's a ohio poll, theres a florida poll. i want to go to this whole donald trump raising their hands things because there has been a meme on the internet that he looks like adolf hitler and everybody out there is raising their hands and that it's a fascist salute. i've been seeing that over the last four days. >> that's what john podoretz was telling me about yesterday. >> we do that in baptist
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churches all the time. raise your hand in this -- people do that. i don't know. mike barnicle, did that look like a nazi salute to you? >> no. >> are we really having this conversation? >> no, we're really having this conversation because there are people at respected newspapers that are writing and they're showing a quick clip when people first raised their hand to make it look like a fascist salute. so, yes, we are having the conversation because this fits perfectly into the narrative over the past nine months where people go, why is trump winning? i don't understand why trump is winning. and then they overreach, do something stupid like this and make it look like a nazi salute and a little one and a half second clip and then you see the whole clip and go, oh, they're lying about him. this has happened for nine months and people wonder why trump gets to use the media as his whipping board. it's just -- it's ridiculous.
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go ahead, mike. >> it's been going on for nine months and that is my point. the length of these campaigns, the american presidential campaigns lends to absurdity in the coverage. i mean, yesterday, you know, we have had the trump thing going on for quite a while but now we have bernie sanders doesn't understand poor people or black people because he used the word ghetto. it's absurd the way we now cover these things. i understand it because we are as exhausted as the voters are exhausted as the candidates are exhausted. >> gene robinson, jump in. what do you think? >> well, before you rule on the donald trump raising your hands look at the photo that was all around taken from the back of the audience over the weekend and i will tell you it's not a good look for him. i will just say this. it is not a good look for donald when seen from the rear with a whole bunch of people raising their right-hand side. >> are you kidding me? >> that was still video. look at the video.
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>> i understand what you're saying. >> are you kidding me, gene? >> i understand what you're saying. >> gene, you're talking about a still photo. look at the video. >> joe, i understand what you're saying. i'm just saying you should look at it from the rear. a still photograph can last, can linger, can have an impact, it's just not a good look for him. that's all i'm saying. >> just like the birther movement. >> it certainly can have a lasting impact if the purpose is to wrech a moment from its proper context. >> absolutely. >> if that's what someone is looking to do they can do it. but we here -- you and i here are more interested in the truth and what really happened so we play the video and people go, oh, there's nothing to it. >> if you take a photograph from the back of a class where immigrants are being sworn in as united states citizens the photo would like exactly the same. >> yes, it would look the same. guys, i'm just saying look -- look at the picture, this is not the first time a photograph --
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>> but what a hilarious contrasting point at a citizenship -- >> wow. >> gene. wow. >> we've talked about this enough. i just -- i couldn't -- willie, it's -- this is what we've been talking about, willie, for nine months. are you okay, there, mika? >> yeah, no, just -- anyhow -- >> you're dropping things again. >> dropped my pills. dropped my pills. >> yeah. mother's little helpers scattered all over the floor at "30 rock." >> it will be okay. i'll get them later. >> mika -- >> children, pick them up. >> mika laid out what's happening in the four states today but really all eyes are a week from today. >> right. >> the big date on the republican calendar is march 15th that's when a total of 367 delegates are at stake with elections in florida, north carolina, illinois, ohio and more. a quarter of the 1,237 needed to nominate at the convention the in the latest florida poll
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trump's lead in the single digits. a monmouth university poll puts trump at 38% to rubio's 30, cruz at 17 and kasich at 10. early voting began on saturday nd 20% of those polled had already cast their ballots. among those voters rubio was leading trump 48% to 23%. trump leads 42 to 26 among those left to vote. rubio leads trump in south florida 41, 30, trump doubles rubio in central florida 44, 22 and a tight rate in north florida where trump it up by 4 points. trump comes out on top 47 to rubio's 45 and 48% to cruz's 40. the poll sampled registered republicans who either voted in the 2012 or 2014 primaries or in both of the last two general elections. they say they are likely to vote in next week's primaries. joe, obviously marco rubio has to win florida, that goes without saying at this point. if donald trump wins florida and steals ohio where depending on the poll you look he's neck and
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neck with john kasich, it's game over if he wins both. if he wins one and not the other the race remains open. >> no doubt about it. hey, alex, do we have the ohio poll that we can put up? >> so -- >> mika, show us ohio. >> ohio is going to offer up on tuesday 66 delegates in a winner take all primary there. public policy polling finds the race effectively tied in the buckeye state with a slight edge to trump, 38% to governor john kasich's 35%. inside the 4 point margin of error. cruz is way down at 15%, rubio at 5. in a head to head match up kasich easily takes down trump. >> let's forget the head to head matchups because they are not going to happen. let's go back to that. mark halperin, i want to go to you, let's keep this up for people that are driving trump is at 38%, kasich 35, but you've gotten marco rubio down at 5% in
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ohio, a state that republicans have to win, mark halperin. in michigan marco rubio a distant fourth place. in mississippi marco rubio down 20, 30 points. this is going to be a brutal day for marco rubio and there is beginning to be talk that maybe rubio should get out of the race before florida because if he gets destroyed in all of these races and loses his home state that his political career may be over. what are you hearing? >> well, look, the momentum phase is losting longer in the republican phase than we thought it would, it's not just about delegate accumulation. rubio ask probably not going to have a very good day today in michigan or in mississippi. in florida is he more likely to finish first or third at this point? not really clear. cruz is making some sort of play there and trump is now going hard after rubio with the 60-second ad, we're waiting to see just how big a buy that is.
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i think rubio faces a big choice now of whether he makes a last stand in florida and whether if he does whether he can succeed. there are doubts even among some of his supporters despite their public posture that he can win florida. as you just showed in the ohio poll he has now got to go all in at florida at the expense of trying to pick up delegates in these other places. even if he somehow came back to win in florida it begs the question of how strong he would be after that. still ahead on "morning joe" bernie sanders says he is in it to win it, but it seems his campaign may already be considering the possibility of being hillary clinton's running mate, but let's just say it's not shaping up to be a buddy comedy yet. plus we will ask the president of the club for growth whether a seven-figure ad buy will halt donald trump in illinois. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back.
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today in michigan. in a new monmouth poll released yesterday out of that state shows hillary clinton leading bernie sanders by 13 points. that purvey was conducted before sunday night's debate in flint. that comes as sanders' senior strategist wouldn't rule out the senator as a possible running mate for clinton. in an interview with "politico" divine emphasized no conversation surrounding sanders as a potential vice presidential nominee have taken place but that believes the senator would consider it if it was done the right and proper way. here is what clinton had to say on the topic during a town hall last night. >> would you tap him to be your vp choice? >> let's not get ahead of ourselves. my gosh. i don't want to think any
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further ahead than tomorrow and the michigan primary. i can't do that. >> mark halperin, you know, i don't think she would do that. does anybody? >> no. no. no? i mean, elizabeth warren. i would love to see bernie sanders. >> everyone agrees with your assessment. >> i just think it's a strange thing to float. >> right. >> he's still running. >> right. sort of rude. >> go ahead, mark halperin. >> there is a little unease in clinton world about what might happen in michigan today. we shouldn't pre judge the result. watching how sanders does and kasich does in michigan today is probably the most important thing immediately before us. if she wins a solid victory there it's going to be hard for him to come back by any numerical standard. the dance that she will need to do with him to unite the party to keep his supporters energized and to find a role for him going forward the rest of the year is an important part of what she's got to do, but i think senator sanders is going to face a lot of choices.
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there are more debates on the schedule, including one this week in florida, he's got a lot of money to spend and things are a little bit acrimonious between them, but i don't think her job of bringing him into the fold without putting him on the ticket would be anywhere near as hard as barack obama's job in bringing hillary clinton and her supporters along eight years ago. >> gene, if hillary clinton wins michigan tonight, has a strong showing in michigan tonight, do we start saying that it's all over but the crying for bernie sanders? >> yeah. yeah. i think we do. i mean, look, if he could -- if he can surprise everybody in michigan as a kind of state where potentially he could do well, i think mark is right, let's see how he does tonight. but if he gets creamed by double digits in michigan tonight it's hard to imagine where he's going -- where he's really going to beat her. and she will be way ahead in delegates and i think we'll start, you know, calling her the presumptive nominee, i think.
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i mean, we still have a whole bunch of primaries next week, but it's really tough for bernie if he gets really blasted in michigan. >> coming up on "morning joe," march madness. the presidential campaign starts to feel like the big ten tournament, we will look at how michigan could set up ohio and illinois for john kasich when he joins us live from the campaign trail with his wife karen. back after this. woman: it's been a journey to get where i am. and i didn't get here alone. there were people who listened along the way. people who gave me options. kept me on track. and through it all, my retirement never got left behind. so today, i'm prepared for anything we may want tomorrow to be. every someday needs a plan. let's talk about your old 401(k) today. hey kevin. hey, fancy seeing you here. uh, i live right over there actually.
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earlier this morning we spoke with donald trump and joe asked him about the millions being spent against him in florida. >> well, florida right now you're getting absolutely hammered, about $10 million, $12 million in 30-second ads being spent against you. we see that you have an ad going up against marco rubio. are you going to actually put any money behind that ad or are you going to rely mainly as you said yesterday on facebook and twitter to respond to over $10 million in attack ads? >> well, a little bit on facebook and twitter, but also we've put up some ads and they're good ads and spending a couple of million dollars, maybe a few million dollars, i don't know what the final determination is, but they're up. we already have ads that are up. you know, we'll find out if they're effective, but certainly the establishment is just hammering me with ads. everybody goes -- i had the big tournament down at doral and i'm
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watching the tournament and i see during the ad portion i see ads against me and i'm the one having the tournament, i own doral, so it's sort of a weird feeling. they're spending a lot of money on that. the good news is i'm up against a senator who frankly is very unpopular in florida, he doesn't vote, he doesn't go and vote, and i think if he actually ran for an office there he wouldn't be elected dog catcher frankly. >> donald, does it make it less likely that you can make peace with the establishment after this is all over because they are spending so much money in attack ads specifically directed at you? >> well, you know, i've always gotten along with people, i think you understand that. i've always gotten along, i've had great relationships with people over the years. you know, i have had feuds and i have had fights with people and i've been able to get along. we'll have to see. i think we can. the bottom line is, you know, the biggest story in politics is how many people are showing up to these primaries. i mean, you know, there are 50, 60, 70%, millions of additional
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people over four years ago, four years ago they were dying the republicans and now it's been energized. you know, instead of being given credit they take ads against me. i will tell you if i am out, if for some reason i'm out, you will lose millions and millions of potential voters out of the republican party and i don't think there's any track, any way that the republicans can win. >> all right. that was donald trump on our show earlier this morning. joining us now president of the conservative political organization club for growth former republican congressman david mcintosh. his group super pac is spending $2 million on ads in illinois against donald trump. even more in florida. msnbc's steve kornacki, "the new york times" nick comp sorry and mike barnicle all with us as well. joe, take it. >> leaf me start with you, steve kornacki. obviously there are two story lines that everybody is following, one, the fall of
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marco rubio, will he be able to turn things around, and two, the possible plateauing of donald trump, is he losing a little bit of steam? what are you going to be looking at tonight to get an answer on both of those story lines? >> yeah, two different states, i think to key in there. mississippi because you look at what happened in louisiana and one of the reasons people say they wonder if donald trump plateaued and is maybe losing his momentum is the difference in louisiana on saturday between the early vote that had been cast a week or two behalf hand and the actual vote on primary day. the primary day vote ted cruz narrowly beat donald trump, trump had won big with the early vote. if that signaled some kind of shift, drop in momentum and drop in support for donald trump, i think if you look right next door in mississippi, a lot of similar demographic, cultural characteristics between mississippi and louisiana, if there was a big change that happened in the final days before louisiana i think you will see it in those results in mississippi. a week ago we would have said
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big trump win in mississippi, if he's losing if this thing is razor thin then that would reinforce that idea. then the other thing is michigan. we've seen donald trump again in most of the polls have pretty comfortable leads in michigan, but there was a bit of a potential warning sign yesterday afternoon, there is this new monmouth poll that said in the final two days of their polling, saturday and sunday right before this tuesday, saturday and sunday, they had john kasich suddenly surging, suddenly closing in on trump within four or five points of him. again, i think that's another one to look at there. if trump is winning that thing comfortably in michigan i think he's back on track. if john kasich is breathing down his neck, if john kasich is winning michigan, obviously big problem for donald trump. >> all right. >> dave mcintosh, you guys club for growth are absolutely pounding donald trump. you are not alone. he's getting hammered $10 million in ads against him in florida, an awful lot in illinois, too. what's your message? what's your specific message on
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why voters and conservatives should vote against donald trump? >> yeah, thank you, joe. specifically that he's got a long record of not being really a republican or very conservative on taxes, on government healthcare, on eminent domain abuse, supporting hillary clinton in the past. and then i think what we're showing is people want somebody who is not your typical politician, but he'll pander to audiences and ultimately our fear is he will lose to hillary, we will lose the senate and supreme court perhaps for a generation. that's the message we're conveying in the ads. we have great alternatives with ted cruz or marco rubio that can carry that message and can win. the polls show they can actually win in the fall. >> mr. mcintosh, but part of your theory as you just articulated it would lead many experts to believe that ted cruz would lose more states in the fall than would donald trump. so why not -- why not go after
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ted cruz on an equal basis? is it because he is just so rigidly conservative that he feeds into your feelings better than donald trump? >> well, ted cruz definitely -- we are conservative, we are not establishment, so free market, yes, we think cruz is much better on all of those policy issues, but politically actually the polls show he can win more states than trump and will be a better nominee, but we also have rubio, florida is do or die for him, frankly michigan is going to be important for john kasich to show whether he can stage a come back or not and he will be able to hear from him, but he said early on michigan was his next target. we're not playing there, but if he can slow donald trump down, more power to him. >> david, this is steve kornacki. just a quick question. on the general election if the choice does end up being donald trump the republican nominee, hillary clinton the democratic nominee, are you okay supporting donald trump then? >> we have not gotten to that
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because we think he won't be the nominee and shouldn't be the nominee. i know a lot of people who say no they couldn't support him, other people, you know, my good friend mike pents who is the governor of indiana says i will support trump if he is the nominee. we're focused on winning these primaries with a true conservative, ted cruz, marco rubio who will champion the principles of lower taxes, smaller government and more freedom. >> all right. >> isn't it interesting, nick, as we talk about the beat that you cover which is bill money and politics that if donald trump were anybody but donald trump and you had a guy that was self-funding his own campaign, had spent less money per vote than anybody else, had not taken any money from wall street or the big donor class, but yet at this point was being hammered by outside money that would be a
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screaming head line on the front of every newspaper, as well as every public interest group, would it not? but since it's donald trump that's getting hammered, we won't talk about it quite so much. but isn't it funny the guy that's not -- you know, not taking the money from the big donor class is now getting killed by these third-party ads? >> i do think that there is a bit of a disconnect. the traditional reform groups don't want to be on donald trump's side. i will say my head is spinning seeing the club for growth in the trenches with the establishment groups and money against donald trump. it's some weird buddy comedy. i wonder for david is it weird for you guys to be out there with these traditional gop donors attacking donald trump? >> i will say when i get compliments from some of the liberal groups that don't like donald trump i have to look around and make sure i'm doing the right thing, but for all it's all about the policy. he's very clearly has a record of being for big government, higher taxes, government run healthcare and that's what
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drives us. >> yeah. david, i'm just looking at the money you're spending on these ads. do you really think this is going to work? i mean, nothing like this works. mitt romney, i mean, even before it started it ended. >> great questions. >> why didn't you do this months ago? i mean, hello? where were you? >> no, and lots of folks didn't notice, but we actually did this in iowa several months ago and it worked. trump went from the lead down to second place, we did it in oklahoma and arkansas, cut his lead in arkansas and beat him in oklahoma. what works about it is people wake up and say, oh, he says he's a conservative but they're showing he's not in his own words, he must be like the other politicians. our tag line is he's playing you for chumps. so they do work. we use the resources we had early on to try to get everybody else to pay attention and folks kind of stuck their head in the sand and said, oh, he will go away, we don't have to worry
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about this. he hasn't and we have had to do a lot more. >> okay. did it work in iowa, steve kornacki? last time i checked he got the most votes of anyone in history except for ted cruz? >> he did come in second. the final polls -- >> marco rubio considered third like the most incredible event to ever hit the universe. >> iowa was sult a disappointment for trump, it wasn't a devastating blow but it was a disappointment. >> okay. >> so, steve, let me ask you again tonight what are you going to be looking at? what should we all be looking at and what do you judge as a night that proves that donald trump either is on his way to locking down the nomination or doesn't have the juice that he needs to get the majority of the delegates? >> yeah, i mean, look, i think bottom line if he's putting up solid wins and i'm not sure exactly how you want to judge that, but maybe if you say double digits, if he fit a
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double digit win in michigan tonight, a double digit win ten points or more in mississippi i think that would be solid for trump. i think that would say to people that maybe there was a little bit of overreaction to what we were seeing on saturday night, you know, you're looking at states here, again, you're not looking at early voting in michigan. if donald trump is putting up a double digit win in michigan you wouldn't be able to say what you said in louisiana where it was only because the people voted two weeks ago, if they were all voting today he would lose. >> right. >> if he's winning michigan by double digits tonight those are people going out and voting today. >> steve, thank you very much. i would suggest switch the graphics for a chalkboard tonight. >> a chalkboard? >> chalkboard. >> i like t i'll look into that. >> david mcintosh, thank you very much. >> i think steve hit it by the way for you. >> we're going to be passing the baton to steve kornacki by the way at 9:00 a.m. because he just works around the clock. still ahead on "morning joe" ohio governor john kasich joins us live along with his wife
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karen. they're bullish on their chances in michigan as voting gets under way there this morning. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back with them. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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ask your rheumatologist about humira. humira. this is my body of proof! look, joe, we have the kasichs. joining us from lansing, michigan, governor john kasich of ohio and his wife will be joining us shortly. joe, take it away. >> john, just for transparency sake a lot of people try to guess who we like, who we support, whatever. i've said it before but i might as well say it at the beginning of this interview, i'm a kasich guy, i'm on team kasich. you are the reason i got into politics, everybody knows that now i can ask you questions, i will try to be tougher on you than i would be with other people. how are things looking right now? do you think you have a shot in michigan and ohio? >> well, joe, we're growing here, you know, you can feel the momentum here in michigan, thank
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goodness. you know, the intensity of the supporters, the people that are for me is really pretty remarkable, you would be amazed if you saw t i think we're going to do well here. i can't predict it, i'm not going torques the pollsters they don't know, either, that's why good created a stroll injuries to make them look accurate. i'm also rising in illinois. i think what's happening is people are finally starting to hear me, joe. up until now not so much. not so much in terms of knowing even who i was. >> is it okay to be a kasich gal? would that be inappropriate? i will take the next question. >> i'm a mika guy. i'm a mika guy. >> well, there you go. see, it goes around. i've heard you say some nice things about my dad on the campaign trail. >> i've been saying nice things about you. i don't think you knew that. i talk about your dad a little bit but i said you know mika that's his daughter and she is a very, very nice woman.
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>> well, isn't that lovely. thank you very much. >> nobody boos. >> they don't boo? >> they clap. >> that is really something. i don't know. you've got a very diverse following, shall i say. okay. so you've been heard to say that you feel that hillary clinton was a bit dem going beginning about the whole flint water crisis. what do you think would be a better solution? should the government step in? is what's being done enough? >> well, look, there's federal dollars that are available to each state for clean drinking water, number one. number two, i think that all of the country is going to have to look at an ability of state and local governments to take on some debt, to have some resources to get in there and to look at replacing perhaps some of the service lines. we also have a problem with lead paint in homes. these are -- these are situations that are old, okay, because they're things that have to be dealt with. look, it's a serious problem.
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we all know that. but i can't believe that hillary would have gone out and said that he should resign. i mean, are you kidding me? this is a woman who is apparently under investigation of which i've said nothing about and she's talking about somebody else -- somebody else resigning. you know, mika, when you live in a glass house you better be careful about throwing stones is my only point. she's trying to win so she's fighting bernie, you know, and we know bernie, bernie is spinning around out there around pluto somewhere, that's the way he's always been. people are interested in pluto, i guess, but he's not going anywhere. >> i will send it to mike barnicle now. mike. >> governor, you and the other candidates have had a series of debates, you've stood on the stages in various states as most of the candidates, not you, but most of the other candidates just absolutely pummeled donald trump making him out to be just about the worst guy in the universe and yet at the end of the debates and at the end of the day each of you were asked
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would you support the republican nominee if it's donald trump and you all say, oh, yes, absolutely. do you really mean that? >> well, mike, you know, remember i also said with kind of a smile that it's not always easy. look, i mean, the deal is i don't think he's going to be the nominee. i'm going to have a good showing here in michigan, i'm going to win ohio, i will be campaigning all across the country. you can see ted cruz starting to gain momentum. i just don't think he is going to have enough delegates. people are yelling and screaming, well, whoever has the most ought to get it. that's not the way it works. we know what the rules are. you either get enough delegates or you're out -- or, you know, you have to go to the convention and compete. i don't think at the convention -- i think we're going to pick somebody who we think can be commander in chief and somebody who has a record and somebody who can run america. that's where i think this is going to go, but, you know, who knows? who knows what's going to happen here? >> we want to bring in your
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wife, the first lady of ohio, karen kasich. karen, thank you so much for being on the show. how are you doing? >> good morning. thanks for having me. i'm doing well. >> i say how are you doing because you have two daughters like me and yours are twin 16 year olds? >> yes, they are. >> yes. yes, they are. >> they're good -- they're good girls, but they're 16. >> but they're 16. that's sort of what i say about my children. how has it been trying to handle the -- i'd say the challenges of being on the campaign trail, of trying to support your husband -- support your own interests and your family? i know this is no easy task. >> well, i'm having a great time, you know, i come on and off the campaign trail with john, i'm not out 24/7 like he is and i get energized when i come out. for example, in michigan people have been great, they've been wonderful to us, we go to town halls they ask really interesting questions and it's a treat for me to hear and see
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what people are thinking and watch john on the road. >> tell them what you did, yesterday, babe. >> yeah, yesterday was great, i was at angel's place which is in michigan and they provide services for developmentally disabled adults and then i went into detroit to visit an after city school -- after school city program. so you know, i get to go out into the community and see what people are really doing where they live and that's a great privilege. >> it really is a privilege. that's a great way to look at it. also i understand there was a bit of a vote inside the family as to whether or not john should run. >> well, he doesn't have all the votes at home, that's for sure, but right now we're more concerned -- we're more concerned that he gets all the votes in michigan than at home. >> did he split the vote at least? does it look hopeful? >> you know, here is the thing -- here is the thing, mika, that's really interesting. i think it's settling down, but one of my daughters was like when daddy runs he wins and i'm
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going to be in high school and i'm not moving to washington. so i've made a deal with her, you just stay in ohio and i'll just come home every weekend, okay, we will just put a hel ipad in or something. it will all be fine. >> do you know what, i think paul ryan got a similar deal and there's nothing wrong with trying to make everybody in the family happy. it's challenging for everybody. karen, what is it about your husband that you think people haven't maybe completely fully understood after months and months of the lens being on him? >> well, i think they know he is a man of great experience and they know he is a gentleman by watching these debates and i also think that they ought to know he has a huge heart. he is a compassionate man and he is out here trying to make life better for all ohioans and he wants to do that for americans as well so i'm quite proud of the way he conducts thhimself. >> it's great to meet you on the air, karen, i'd love to meet you in person sometime. john, good to see you so much.
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thanks for being on the show. come back anytime. >> thanks for having us. we will be right back with much more "morning joe." you focus on making great burgers, or building the best houses in town. or becoming the next highly-unlikely dotcom superstar. and us, we'll be right there with you, helping with the questions you need answered to get your brand new business started. we're legalzoom and we've already partnered with over a million new business owners to do just that. check us out today to see how you can become one of them.
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a vote for any other candidate, a vote for marco rubio or a vote for john kasich is a vote for donald trump. >> a vote for john kasich or a vote for ted cruz in florida is a vote for donald trump. >> okay. time now to talk about what we learned today. joe, what did you learn? >> well, mika, i've learned that
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a vote for anybody else but me is a vote for donald trump and i hope people will think about that as they go to the polls today. no, i've learned that the republican party still a circular firing squad and as long as it is donald trump prevails. mike barnicle. >> i learned just off that clip we played i am begging john kasich to stay in this case because he brings a human element to the campaign that the other two candidates, not donald trump, but the two we just saw do not bring. >> i'm a kasich guy. i made no secret of it. i love the guy. nick, what did you learn? >> i've learned that john kasich is really into astrology and pluto. so astrology and what's your sign. >> that was all over the place. yeah. >> what's your sign? >> all right. >> mika, what did you learn? >> i learned that donald trump is going to call in again tomorrow and before you -- just hold the phone, everybody, calm yourself down, okay, because before you get all upset understand that he is accessible
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and we keep trying to ask him the tough questions and get answers out of him and if hillary clinton, john kasich wants to call back in. >> yeah. >> marco rubio wants to pick up the phone. >> mika, mika -- >> lift the hammer and give us a call. if ted cruz wants to call us at any moment during our show we will put them on and keep them on so that they can stay anything they want and answer questions. >> mika. mika. mika! stop reading twitter. stop reading twitter. stop it. >> it's the voices in my head. >> just stop. yes, and you do have voices in your head, there's no doubt about that. also when kasich said that everybody out there said that they really like you, mika is a really nice person, they need to spend more time with you. but anyway -- i'm joking. but, listen, here is the deal, guys, watch msnbc throughout the day and tonight. this is a critical day in the campaign in 2016. if donald trump does well in michigan and minnesota then we keep moving in the same
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direction, but if he underperforms in michigan and mississippi the way he underperformed in louisiana based on the polls we could be in for a very long battle. a fascinating day, mika, and a fascinating night to come on msnbc. >> so, steve kornacki, he is going to pick up his chalk and chalkboard and the coverage on this election day after a quick break. tomorrow we will have full results and analysis from washington. have a wonderful day, everybody. (burke) at farmers, we've seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. even a stag pool party. (party music) (splashing/destruction) (splashing/destruction) (burke) and we covered it, october twenty-seventh, 2014. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪
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and good morning. i'm steve kornacki and here it is. welcome to super tuesday part two. four states up for grabs on the republican side today, hawaii, idaho, mississippi and then the big one, michigan. michigan the biggest prize on the board, our first big test for candidates in the rust belt so far this primary season. will the state restore donald trump's grip on this republican race or will it push us closer to that thing we have never seen in the modern era of presidential politics, the contested convention. the latest poll in michigan putting donald trump ahead by 13 points, ted cruz and john kasich essentially tied for second. a note to that poll at the very end the final two day

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