tv The Rachel Maddow Show MSNBCW March 9, 2016 1:00am-2:01am PST
>> does that help? it helps enormously. thank you all so much. here's the plot line so far tonight -- michigan, for the s tonight. michigan for the democratic party, split look for the democrats as you'll be hearing. it's on the big board behind me. bernie sanders was awarded the state of michigan. it took a long time after the polls closed and for good reason. earlier in the evening it was a landslide victory in mississippi as hillary clinton continued her success in the south. a huge victory over bernie sanders in mississippi. the gop primary late tonight ted cruz was the projected winner over donald trump 42% to 29%.
part of the donald trump stitching to victories tonight that is giving him a very impressive national map. ted cruz and narrowing out john kasich in the later hours tonight. it looked like kasich was going to have a second place finish there in michigan for a while. down south, donald trump the victor in mississippi. cruz in second and then a huge drop off to single digits. the national map right now, the gop primary, our last graphic there in the corner, you see the various colors, trump, cruz, marco rubio and nothing for john kasich. here's the democratic map. hillary clinton in gold, bernie sanders in blue. that's where we stand. andrea mitchell watching it all with us from washington. i'm sorry she's not. high -- hi, rachel.
>> the issue on the republican side remains the same which is that donald trump is going to win or nobody is going to win. right now it looks like the only other person in contention to even try to win is ted cruz. john kasich wants to win his home state, probably his best shot of winning anywhere else tonight was michigan. right now he's third to ted cruz. marco rubio keeps he telling everybody tonight doesn't matter at all unless he wins hawaii. so far he's only been able to win in minnesota and puri. either donald trump is going to wrap up the nomination with those big delegate prizes in all those states that are going to vote, or it will be decided at the convention. there's no other option for the republican party and if donald trump keeps having commanding nights like he's having tonight,
he's going to have a difficult -- i think anybody else is going to have a difficult argument on their hands in trying to make a case of why he shouldn't get the nomination. we knew that was sort of the forecast heading into tonight. it is underscored absolutely when you look at this devastating national map, you look at his absolute dominance in the republican race and the ease of these victories tonight, there's no reason to compare him and hillary clinton at this point except that they're both front-runners, but for her to lose michigan tonight and him to wrap it up he's in a commanding position. >> his win is so heavy in the south. that was supposed to be the ted cruz path to victory. it was supposed to be -- this was a map made for cruz and trump stole it. he was able -- he's run even with him essentially with evangelicals depending on the state and then he wins these
working white class voters some of whom haven't voted in primaries in the past. this is it. it's do or die next tuesday. they either stop them in florida and ohio or he's the nominee. >> is there any co her ens to the places where ted cruz has won? he has won in these -- >> he has won in places where usually -- you can tell a ted cruz state in a few ways. it touches the state of texas. it's a closed process, closed primary, only open to registered republicans. donald trump does better when you have democrats and republicans coming in. and then the more rural it is. idaho fits that pattern a little bit, even iowa fits that pattern. while it's same day voter registration, it's only open to republicans. that's the pattern for cruz. the problem for cruz is he has
not demonstrated an ability to go -- he's a better funded version of santorum and huckab e huckabee. if he pulled off something like that next tuesday, that's a big deal. he needs to find a place to win next tuesday. north carolina he can pick off a lot of places. illinois and missouri i think he's going to spend time in. he needs to win missouri should be right for him. there's a reason the university of missouri joined the scc. it's cultural. >> can we talk about cruz's shot in florida? there's been noise about cruz making this entrance into the florida market. people are seeing that as a
psyche-out move for marco rubio, if marco rubio does as bad as he did tonight, does cruz have any shot of doing anything in florida? >> all he does it hand it to trump. >> he's kicking rubio while he's done. the whole point is to just bash rubio and keep him from winning. >> this is the weird gamble that cruz is making. it's i want to get rubio out sooner than later. i have a quick way to get him out. it strengthens trump short-term, but it gets rubio out of the way because they've discovered that rubio and cruz they are more each other's second choice than they realize. the two have been in each other's way in some of these states, but tonight marco rubio wasn't in anybody's way. i think that's what the cruz campaign is calculating.
>> they think that strengthening trump short-term is a good y idea. >> there's a lot of bad blood here. some people hate each other. >> chris matthews in detroit, i called this -- if you would have told me a year ago election season everyone starts every sentence on the democratic side on the republican side, if you would have told me a year ago i wouldn't have believed you. >> what? >> fill in the blank. bernie sanders democratic socialist, donald trump. >> that would have been a wild pick. i have rick tyler here who tried to stop that from happening for a long time. he's the communications director for ted cruz. by the way, lying ted and little marco, that's how the conversation went tonight from trump. >> i think you can expect more of it.
i think if the republican establishment wants that kind of a person to get the nomination then they won't do anything about it. >> what about rachel's argument? i think we agree it makes sense that right now it looks like trump can win the nomination by cleveland, no one else can and if someone tries to win at cleveland having not beaten trump in the primary season, will they get away with it historically? >> i don't know. >> in 1952 -- >> look, those are the rules. >> i know the rules. >> if you don't arrive with the requisite amount of delegates -- >> there's usually a way to get the deficit filled up. >> mark rio had a bad night. john kasich effectively replaced marco has the establishment
candidate tonight, i think, and if marco goes into florida i think he's going to lose and i don't know what his path forward is. >> what's cruz going to win next week? >> i think he can win missouri. >> that's it? ohio and florida. >> he could possibly win north carolina. i think winning florida would be a long shot. if rubio got out, maybe he could win florida. if rubio got out -- >> rubio's not getting out. >> i don't think he is either. >> how does cruz win? >> he could win if marco was effectively out and then people just stopped voting for him, which he did tonight. >> cruz isn't going to big industrial states like michigan and ohio. >> he came in second in michigan. >> i know. when do we give trophies out for second? these are winner take all states. you don't get a trophy.
>> if donald trump did well in these states and -- but these other candidates are going to have to decide. if donald trump was any other candidate, it would be over. he's not so these other candidates are in the race and if they continue to be in the race donald trump will be the nominee and then you is a nominee who says things like little marco and et cetera. >> the only one of us that were in a campaign recently. if you were in a campaign with ted cruz and you watched that strange performance by donald trump tonight and defending himself by any attack made against him, it was a strange defensive campaign hitting point by point by point for an hour. >> right. >> what would you be thinking? >> i would think that's an insecure individual and do i want him to have the nuclear codes. >> does he still have fire power. >> no, but he does. he has broken all the rules, but
we'll see going forward. people finally started to attack him and spend money against him. >> he will be the nominee going into cleveland? >> besides trump? >> no, trump. is trump the best bet? >> yes. >> you're willing to concede that now? >> i think he has the best path to the nomination. the question is whether the party's going to accept that and try to rally people behind cruz. the establishment is talking about rallying behind cruz. you had lindsey graham talking about getting behind cruz is this he's been very lucky in his opposition, whether it was the pope or jeb bush or your guy, he seems to relish and exploit every encounter. if the establishment shows its ugly head at the convention in cleveland and tries to stop the guy who went in there with the most delegates i think you're
going to see a major problem. >> if he doesn't get the requisite number of delegates i think they will try to stop him. >> i think trump walks if he doesn't get the nomination at that point won the most delegates and if he does win the nomination there will be probably who walk because of that. >> at least we have that to look forward to. thank you. it doesn't look like a peaceful ending either way. a break. when we come back more of our live election coverage on this super tuesday.
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magical place. you realize you're home still. >> and you realize you've made a bad decision about where you live because you don't live there. tonight we have democratic and republican results from mississippi and michigan. we've got republican results from idaho. we await the hawaii results. marco rubio is going for it in hawaii. he tweeted out the hawaii caucuses are open until 1:00 p.m. check your location here and go vote for me. >> that's why they call it social media. >> marco rubio having a devastatingly bad tonight in the other contests that have been fought so far. >> bernie sanders has gone out -- >> bernie sanders puppet has appeared at the chris matthews location. things are going well for everybody except marco rubio, but he still has hope in hawaii. >> the lid was blown off the hot
dog place. >> we have a great bernie rally here. >> the celebration has unexpe unexpectedly erupted. >> look at this. >> seconds away from a bad word, i have that feeling. the hair on your neck stands up. >> this is the part of the night when things get weird. speaking of weird, our own friend steve -- >> she meant that affectionately. >> what's going on with the delegate situation tonight on the democratic side? >> i'll give you something weird. this is a huge night for bernie sanders. he just won the biggest state he's won yet, michigan. what was at stake tonight was 130 delegates. they give these out
proportionately. it's proportional by district. so it's not official right now, but it looks like bernie sanders might have won more districts than hillary clinton. if things go really well for bernie sanders, he will win 70 to 60. the other state that voted tonight was mississippi. this is an absolute bloodbath in mississippi. 83-16. they give out a lot of delegates by district there. to get any delegates you need 15%. it looks like there are districts in mississippi where sanders didn't even clear the 15% threshold. there are 36 delegates up for grabs in mississippi. hillary clinton looks like is going to win that thing 32-4. if you add these two together, hillary clinton is going to get 92 and bernie sanders will get
74 delegates. these are the delegates being given out in the primary season. if you add thesing to, what does that mean to hillary clinton 431. he gets his biggest win of the campaign and is down in 216. his campaign's theory is they catch hillary clinton here and they win the allocated delegates and the super delegates change their mind and go with bernie sanders. >> forgive me if i'm wrong about this, but in 2008 we saw a bit of a mirror image of this where we saw barack obama build up a lead and then though hillary clinton kept winning states she could never catch up. >> he got big wins in small
states in 2008. he got big wins in caucus states, wrapped up the delegates and hillary clinton won pennsylvania, ohio, she won big states late, but because barack obama still got 46% of the votes in those states, proportionately she wasn't getting the huge numbers he was getting by winning small states. >> the margin matters. >> the margin matters. >> can i say one other thing about hawaii. >> yes. >> in hawaii there is one weird sidebar story in terms of what's going on in the republican race, which is that the marco rubio campaign says they've had a dirty trick played upon them. they say that the ted cruz campaign specifically in hawaii sent out an e-mail blast last night effectively telling voters, republican voters that marco rubio was getting out. they forwarded the cnn story
that the marco rubio campaign denied, but suggested that he might get out before florida. they're calling that a dirty trick. that's the same kind of dirty trick that the ted cruz campaign played on ben carson in iowa. that hurt ted cruz in terms of his reputation. is this the sort of thing that is it going to resonate around the ted cruz candidacy or is this one of those things that happens late at night. >> i think it is resonating. that was the call i got from the trump campaign talking about how ben carson had been played this dirty trick and ted cruz wasn't a man of character. so i do think this is a narrative that's resonating among the republican voters. the rubio didn't do enough to mag magni m magnify it.
>> if it was a dirty trick, it was perfectly targeted for tonight because the only place where marco rubio had any kind of chance to do anything and the cruz campaign gets to say if it was deliberate they get to say it was hawaii, those people, we had nothing to do with them and there's a ring of credibility to that because it's so far away and who is paying attention to the hawaii attention, well this week everybody is paying attention and they know what they're doing in hawaii. there's an ekio. >> look at the bomb blast deficit. a perceived slight in the hands of donald trump gets magnified. look what he was able to do with cruz on the honesty score. this time it wasn't picked up. >> the rubio campaign is doing a little with it, but they --
>> it's because they don't have the magga phone right now because everyone is seeing what happened tonight and his disappointing performance and rubio is getting pushed aside and everybody is focusing on this two-person race now. kasich was hopeful that a second place in michigan, that would make him the new second place front-runner, but it doesn't seem very likely now. >> when rubio is out of the race, donald trump will add this to his list of dirty tricks that lying ted has pulled off. this will take its place beside the ben carson one, but he's not going to use it until they get rubio out of the race. >> if you're in charge of the rubio campaign, what is your public stance tomorrow? how do you send him out? >> he has to go out there -- check made a point so many early votes have been cast in florida.
rubio owes it to those voters to stay on the ballot. you would corrupt or destroy future prospects for early voting in florida where major candidates were in positions they end up dropping out. he's a senator from your state and so his challenge is going to be to just face questioners and the media to my eye are trying to kick these candidates out the door. as soon as they get an interview with somebody who is no the the front-runner, they're asking them how long are you going to stay in here? >> i think more important for rubio is thursday night's debate. >> as a political pro as a quick look ahead for florida and rubio, the big thing is marco
rubio life's right now is he doesn't have a job. he's not going to be in the senate again. he's not running for reelection. is there a case to be made that he ought to get out in florida before he potentially loses that race because it would be better for him to have quit before losing badly in his home state than to get beaten badly in his home state if he wants to run for florida governor. >> i think it's a tricky position for him because on the one hand yes if he wants to run for the governor probably best not to be the looser, but on the other hand the donor class has invested in him wanting to deny trump a victory in florida. >> i would not want to run for office if i took early votes and then dropped out and wasn't there for you on election day. >> he should run in minnesota. problem solved. >> look at the time. another break. we'll be back with more after
next week. >> the stop trump movement reaching a new level of urgency. >> donald trump is a phoney, a fraud. his promises are as worthless as a degree from trump university. >> do you see the money they spent? >> don't let trump fool you. trump is a fraud. >> stop him now. >> a lot of people establishment or not, who agree with me that donald trump should not be president of the united states. >> he's attacking all of the core tenants of the republican party platform. >> i reject trump. >> i had to support ted cruz over donald trump i would. >> i will not stop until we fight a man who chooses not to disavow the kkk. >> they won't have a chance if the conservative movement is hijacked by someone who is no the a conservative. >> this is a campaign that is not over. it's broken all the rules of
history so far and i have a feeling it's going to break more before we're finished. >> wow. >> it has been one week of the stop donald trump effort on full blast. >> a week in the life of what passes for and there's been so much discussion around this, the gop establishment trying to do a take-down of donald trump after this incredible campaign season. >> at the end of that one week, he wins michigan and mississippi. >> here with are, the board doesn't change. it gets more impressive for him. let's bring in our next two guests to talk about this. steve schmidt is a friend of ours. he's been on tonight. a lot of campaign experience, sarah palin, and the republican committee, former council to romney campaign, bush. steve, i'll start with you.
sum up what you see on the board tonight for donald trump and also the losses on the part of a guy like marco rubio. >> tonight donald trump is the overwhelming front-runner for the weak nomination and if he wins in florida and in ohio next week he becomes the presumptive nominee. when we look at the contests tonight the two candidates in the republican race who have any path to the nomination are donald trump and ted cruz. john kasich taeptiattempting to ohio and marco rubio attempting to win florida, neither has any path to the republican nomination and this notion that the washington establishment will deny the nomination to the person who secures the most votes over the primary process, i think is fantasy. if it would happen, then it would destroy the republican
party. it would blow it up. it would guarantee hillary clinton was the winner in the november election. that's why i think it is unlikely that that will happen at cleveland during the convention. >> ben, that's where you come in, i'm afraid. you're like it or not a part of the washington establishment and we should also note you also love your party and you've meant a lot to it over the years. last time you were here i think it's fair to say we shared a moment. you got very candid about how one would go about wrestling the nomination for donald trump. how much of that do you still stand behind and do you think it is at all a possibility for cleveland? >> well, look, here's what's interesting about it and what those who might choose to try and derail donald trump will take some solas in. mitt romney at this stage after the second week of march had 54%
of the delegates. your statistics just showed that donald trump has 43%. that is a tough trajectory to get to a majority of delegates unless he wins both ohio and florida next week. so this is not so much a trump versus cruz, trump versus kasich, trump versus rubio, this is donald trump's contest with himself to be able to amass enough delegates to come to cleveland with a majority. the truth of the matter is there are procedural and rules obstacles that a candidate would face if he doesn't have a majority of delegates on the first round. it involves the way the rules are now. >> in terms of those rules and in terms of just us all being able to imagine what that convention fight might be like, one of those rules is you have to have won a majority of
delegates in eight states to be considered for the familiar natio nomination. is that a rule that would go out the window. >> in fact, that's not a rule. that's part of what's called the temporary rules. each convention has to pass for itself the number of states that put a candidate's name in nomination. so that rule was in effect for 2012. it's not in effect for 2016. the 2016 convention and its rules committee has to make that decision. so there is no eight-state rule in effect right now for the next convention. in fact in 2012 the number of states required was increased by that convention from five to eight and the 2016 convention can make that number 1, 8, 18, 28 or 58 if it wishes. >> the temporary rules versus
the rules versus the rules that we think they'll stick to is a nice set of dividing line. >> it's the world in which we'll all live. >> all summer vacation is cancelled because we're going to have to be studying up until the conventions. somebody who knows the republican consulting class very well and you know a lot of professional political operatives, is there an active market right now in people who are good at things like convention organizing delegate work, the types of insider play that will be necessary to win a fight at the convention if the other campaigns are going to make an effort to try to make it in cleveland? >> washington, d.c. is filled with people who have the expertise to execute a plan laid out by somebody like ben who would be able to look at the rules to navigate the rules and get to the outcome in the
scenario that ben just laid out. putting that aside though, i think that there's a reality here and the reality is this, the republican party has seen a rebellion against its establishment and leadership in washington, d.c. by the grassroots. can you imagine a scenario where the result of the election would be that the person who got the most votes, got the most delegates and let's say he was short narrowly of the threshold to be nominated, that it would be rested away and the nomination would be given to who? to a washington insider? perhaps to mitt romney? to marco rubio? i think it's fantastical and the consequences of it would be hard to imagine. it could put the house of representatives majority into jeopardy. it could put the u.s. senate majority into jeopardy. it would fracture the republican
party. >> i think that you disagree with steve that you don't think it would be fracturing or crippleing to the republican party to have that fight at the convention where the person who went in with the most but not the sufficient number of delegates didn't end up with the nomination. >> if somebody gets the majority, they're going to be the nominee. it donald trump gets the majority it's done. if he's short, then it's going to depend on how short he is. now somebody who goes in with 43% of the delegates will be barely over 1,000, more than 200 delegates short. that's a historically weak nominee. if he's 50 delegates short, then that's pretty tough to take away. the rules, once people start peeling back the rules, will make it pretty obvious there's no thing that has to be done if
a candidate comes into a convention, 200, 250 votes short, that in fact the rules deal with that process and that's where you'll get the wide open contested convention. >> former rnc general council and steve schmidt, republican campaign veteran, thank you for this. really appreciate it. talk about two different views about how this could happen, ben is seeing all the ways it's possible and steve is seeing how it is possible. that is just a view of how split the republican party is even now, not even looking ahead to that possibility of sorting it out at the convention. >> you would want both of those guys heading into a fight. no one is fighting here. you can tell the kids to go to sleep.
we are back on this super tuesday two evening which is actually now wednesday. one thing i don't say often enough, preceding interviews of all kinds, both parties, if you're connected to a campaign, it's just an assumption you haven't slept well, eaten well, you haven't worked out since the last time you were home, wherever that is. there's a 50/50 shot you can name if someone comes up to you and says where are we, 50/50 shot you'll get it right. i've seen fantastic reporters get it wrong. given all of that -- spouses have to travel separately often. jane sanders, first lady of
vermont -- >> first lady of the sanders campaign. >> first lady of the sanders campaign, college president in her own right, traveling separately from her husband was approached tonight after the good news arrived that her husband had won michigan. >> jane sanders, you just walked into this hotel room here having learned -- you got stuck on a plane and weren't able to be here for the results, but you saw them on the plane. your reaction. >> we were excited to see it. a cancelled plane turned into a deplayed plane and the third plane got us here now. >> you were on the phone with him. what's his mood like right now having unexpectedly winning michigan. >> pretty happy. >> what's next? you are in many ways not just his spouse, but also a close political advisor. what's your view of where this
campaign goes from here reque? >> i think he has a winning campaign and he has a message that the more people see him, the more they get to know him, the more they like him. so every bit of time we have we're out on the campaign trail and he's got a whole bunch of things happening tomorrow in florida and on the next day in florida and of course we have the debate tomorrow. >> hillary clinton has already in the past couple of days said she's looking forward to running against the republicans in the general election consolidating support behind her. what's your reaction to that in light of this news out of michigan tonight? >> well, we wouldn't be so presumptionus ourselves. >> you think he's going to be in this all the way to the convention. >> i know he's going to be in this all the way to the convention. a lot of people are counting on him and he's not going to let them down and there's a lot of states left to vote. the idea is to not just -- it's
not just about bernie. it's about the issues that he believes so strongly in and we need to keep giving voice to that and what's happening now. i mean the states that he keeps on winning, he won three caucus states this week and now michigan so -- >> what do you think the next states on the map where he can win. >> the next ones. illinois, florida, ohio. all of them. i mean, he can win. where he doesn't win is where they don't know him. the more time that goes on, the more people know him. so i think the skies the limit, but i think he's winning the debate in terms of setting the agenda and giving voice to the concerns of americans. and that's a good -- that's a win right in and of itself. >> jane sanders, thanks very much for your time tonight. just off of a plane here where
her husband who has just learned that he's won the michigan primary. back to you. >> i forgot to add it's a glamorous job too being on a campaign. you get to end your day separate from a spouse in a bar in miami. both correspondent and spouse, bernie sanders was awarded the michigan primary tonight. you listen to the republicans talking about fractures in their party and my goodness the democrats have their own set of worries, don't they, chris matthews who is standing by in detroit. what a wild night. >> it sure is. i think every time we think there's a trend line it gets interrupted and bent out of shape. i will say there a parallel theme here. isolation, certainly protectionism are strong elements of both parties with trump and bernie sanders both against all the wars they've been fighting especially iraq
and these trade deals. they do have those two common shared themes of their campaigns. i think it's going to continue. i think with hillary clinton probably realizes tonight she's not going to shake bernie sanders. she's going to be with her all the way to philadelphia and he's got the money and the dream and he has that spouse who is gung oh for him. i think he's going to stay with this thing. he's not going to get a second shot. he is 75 in noevember. this is his chance. i think if trump comes in anywhere near the majority, he will have to be the nominee and they'll have to live with it. if he wins ohio and he has a good chance to do that, if he knocks off rubio in florida and i think rubio will stay in this fight, look out because he's headed to cleveland very strong. i think the democratic party is in much better shape because hillary and bernie sanders can
find an agreement togethering to because they're not that far apart. the republican establishment has been shattered and the example of that is this. compare hillary clinton's performance tonight to jeb's performance in this campaign. the two symbols and persons of the democratic and republican establishments didn't do about the same this year. hillary clinton is in this fight and will probably win it. jeb bush has been blown' away with the republican establishment is in much worse shape than the democratic establishment. >> a lot to think about it. chris, thank you. you're the only one i know that gets better as the hour gets later. >> we're just sitting here writing notes on file folders, but there's more to that when we come right
question by the press. the press has deliberately not micked during these events so you can't hear what the he refused to answer it. he belittled the reporter and told him it was a sillily question and wouldn't answer it. he did spend time trying to convince us that trump steaks is a growing concern. that is a lie. to catalogue the number of lies that he told in his 40 minutes would take 40 minutes. that's how much there was because each one of those lies ze deserves a few minutes of explanation. we'll deal with another one of
them which is trump university. here is a presidential candidate who some people can't imagine not being given the nomination if he simply comes close to winning the nomination by votes. he is a defendant in fraud cases, a federal fraud case in california that he will be testifying in during the presidential campaign. he's a defendant in a fraud case in new york state for trump university, which he called the university of the attorney general of new york said it would be the same thing as if trump opened a place with he sold band aids and called it a hospital. this is the most ridiculous candidate to get this far in this process that we've ever seen to imagine him not being given the nomination, if he doesn't earn it through votes, is easy. remember, he will be the only one scheduled to testify in his own froud case while that convention is going on.
>> we didn't want to let the night go by, a man who has generated more talk than actual media time is john kasich and as we head into ohio he wanted a second place finish tonight in michigan. the kasich campaign was saying second place is a win for us in michigan. we did hear from him and here briefly is part of his comments tonight. >> i'm going to continue to run a positive campaign and not get down in the gutter. >> i think people are beginning to reward a positive campaign. i think people are beginning to see that and secondly because of that just wait one week from tonight, we are going to win the state of ohio and it will be a home new ball game. >> if his projection comes true,
if not a whole new ball game, a very interesting ball game. >> it will be a shrunken ball game. he says if he doesn't win ohio he will get out of the race. we expect marco rubio to do the same if he doesn't win florida. we should meet again. >> i think we saw the schedule in the break room and i think we're both down to work that night. >> we should do that. i was going to bring some -- >> hot dogs. i'm so in trouble. >> as we head into our next hour, what have we learned? it's been another eventful night in campaign 2015 into 2016. >> the front-runners both had good nights, but donald trump had the best night of all. bernie sanders did have an upset win in michigan. hillary clinton is going to get the delegate wins tonight, but bernie sanders gets the moral boost and the momentum, donald trump continues to just steam