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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  March 15, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm PDT

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>> this is very exciting. i've never been on tv before, right. >> you've got cake on your mouth. just stop. >> we're set for the three hours this morning. were we on three hours this morning. >> i think that was today. cupcakes and sweet tea. >> this is a blue plate special, all across florida, we have magnolia bakery here and sweet tea. what do you think. >> a critical day, in the 2016 election, something going on today, voters across five states in one territory have election contests. at stake, the biggest, second
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biggest delegate hall of the race. 793 for the deemmocrats. we're waiting on the exit polling as we speak. depending on who wins big tonight, the story changes after today. voters will decide if donald trump and hillary clinton pull away from the pack for good, or if the nomination battles playout for another three months. >> republicans, that means donald trump sweep would make him nearly unstoppable, but if john kasich can wrestle away ohio, on rubio with an upset in florida, which would be a miracle, both winner take all, a showdown could become inevitable. >> a brokered convention, paul ryan said the people should decide. >> the republican primary voters are going to make this decision. this is not our decision to make. >> you're the speaker of the house.
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>> i'm the speaker of house, so i'm going do what i said i'm going to do. when i see our principles distorted, we're going to stand up. not just republican, conservative, but at the same time, what can we control. our agenda, that's what we're doing. with respect to who the nominee is going to be, that's going to be by the voters. >> joe, willie and me, bloomberg politics, host "with all due respect," it's. >> he'll be here. >> first question. >> okay. >> would you like cupcake? >> maybe during the break. >> a lot of people are worried. >> what are they worried about. >> if things get broken up, and not a clear winner, this goes on for three more months can you take three more months. >> mark, what we're looking at now is the possibility at the end of the night, having a much
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clearer picture of what the republican race looks like, and actually a more drawn out democratic contest. than any of us expected. >> at this hour, this is what we know. at the end of tonight, the d dominant front-runners. >> these are the known knowns. >> the dominant, heavy, overwhelming favorite, if donald trump and hillary clinton have the worst nights possible tonight than anyone can imagine, they'll be the heavy favorites to be the nominees. donald trump looks like he is going to have as we say in the trades, a very good night. exit polls start to come in, you'll hear people on cable tv say things in code saying it looks like it will be a good night for donald trump. >> they'll say i don't know, i have this gut feeling, this is going to be a really good night for donald trump. i'm going out on a line here. >> i think donald trump eye popping evening in florida, eye
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popping. but if he has his worst night, this will, as mika suggested, go on for a long time. democratic side, because of the republican shade over shadows, his side is feeling optimistic, he could have a good night. hillary clinton will pick up more delegates, but he could win enough contests tonight to raise more money and to go into further states in a way that that contest will go on for a good long time. >> so really, the reason why mark is talking about florida the way he is before we've had the fares wave of exit polls, mark and i have been getting everyday updates on voting in florida, early voting in florida. the first time voters in florida. despite that monmouth poll, everything seemed to be moving towards a huge donald trump victor radio florida.
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50% of the voting already in. >> more than 1 million votes come in in early voting the the story is in ohio. clear averages in florida, 16% lead for donald trump, depending on where you look, but ohio is up for grabs. we talked about it this morning, you have john kasich, extremely popular governor, who has done well, endorsed by the republican party there. donald trump giving him a run for his money and a credit to donald trump to be that close to a popular governor. if we assume that trump wins florida, then it becomes a story of ohio, because if trump wins ohio, he is off to the races and we have a two man race with ted cruz. if kasich wins, all of a sudden, an entirely different race. >> if trump wins florida as big as we think, it is all about ohio, ohio, ohio. a lot of other people looking at ted cruz having a good night in missouri, having a good night possibly in illinois. we don't know. i've got to say, though, i still
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believe friday night may provide donald trump with momentum for all the right reasons or all the wrong reasons. it just seems right now like he is so dominated the race. >> you're talking about the case os in chicago. >> it seemed to be precalculated. he is, think about it, since then, he has sucked all of the oxygen out of the room. everybody has been talking about trump. today, he had a phone call with mitch mcconnell, majority leader. which shows, again, trump is now realizing he has got to start reaching out to republicans. mcconnell made it known that he told donald trump that any vai lensz -- violence, regardless of whose fault, must be discouraged and condemned. >> kind of seems like a no brainer, but thank you. under the ohio election laws, they can decide which party they want to vote for, so will ohio democrats break for trump? hillary clinton doesn't think
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so. >> so i don't think he represents the vast majority of americans who are more interested in solving our problems than venting our disappointment or anger. >> msnbc tony dicopola. tony, what are you hearing from voters on the ground there? >> reporter: hey, mika, i'm in struthers ohio, heavy industrial area. working class vote. the trump campaign, the kasich campaign, sanders campaign and the clinton campaign, now, this is an overwhelmingly democratic area. it should be clinton and sanders country. only 7% of the ballots that go through this amen right here should be republican. instead of 7%, we've got day at that -- data that shows they've picked up a republican ballot. we don't know who they voted for, but picked up six times more than you would expect. we caught up with a voter to see
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why and who she voted for. >> trump will be the only republican vote that i cast. >> what do think your father would say? >> my father would go crazy. he would roll over in his grave if he knew i voted for a republican. >> wow. >> it's not only her father that would roll over knowing she voted republican, a lot of people in this community that are shocked that their neighbors and friends making this cross over. hillary clinton supporter who is shocked. here is what he had to say. >> the country is split half normal/half whacked. i'm thinking about finland or costa rica, someplace to go. >> if trump wins. >> oh, yeah. >> so joe, mika, it's hard to overestimate how big a deal this is. the county we're in, it mass gone democratic for ten consecutive presidential
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elections at least, and this time, because of donald trump or perhaps because of kasich, it could flip into the republican category. >> wow. >> back to you guys. >> that's crazy. all right, thank you so much. >> thank you, tony. >> we really appreciate it. by the way, i loved the camera coming out like that. i expected batman. so, john whiheleman. >> i'm sobered up as i can get. >> so very interesting interviews from the ground there in that part of ohio, where we would expect, a lot of reagan democrats to be. six times the number of democrats switching over to vote republican, and we just saw an interview there of somebody who, first person in the family to ever vote for donald trump. >> well, yeah, you figure if there was not such a hotly democratic contested, you could imagine the scenario where democrats would cross over to stop trump. but there a hotly contest.
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you're going say in the democratic side. so i imagine most of those democrats who are switching over will be trump voters. >> switching over to vote for donald trump. we've talked about what we're lacking at tonight. we believe trump will win, big win in florida based on all the early voting. >> yeah. >> what other states are you looking at right now. >> obviously ohio. >> obviously looking at ohio, but there is, to me, it's totally unclear. i sort of maam assuming trump ws florida. i don't have any -- will he win missouri or illinois. one of those places, maybe two for cruz. midwest than i'm looking south on the calendar. >> ted cruz could surprise. he should do well in iowa. i want to ask everyone around the table. i mean, i said illinois. i meant missouri. it's late in the afternoon. but josh, our business insider tweeted this earlier today. he said people are bullish on
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cruz, i just got a call from my daughter. i can't believe -- >> why did you -- >> because i'm on television. will somebody please tell kate i'll call her back. >> you need to call her back. >> josh, we're back to you. i know people are bullish on cruz, but i predict trump will win there. white racial grievance a strong political factor in missouri. i think we may see the ferguson effect in that state as well. it certainly is something that donald trump place to. >> certainly does. that's a -- speculation goes, that's as plausible as any other speculation for sure. >> isn't that exactly what friday night was? >> right. >> you're in chicago, black lives ma matters activists, racial undertones, donald trump, when people said come out, show some leadership, his response was i'll help pay legal fees, blamed it on the protesters, but stoked exactly what you're looking for. >> a throw back to nixon,
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unambiguous. >> a throw back to wallace. >> wallace, but wallace never got elected president. richard nixon, in terms of grievance, in terms of marshaling, what he called the silent majority, against people's sense of disorder, government or society out of control, and a needing a strong figure that will clamp down on lawlessness. trump has that with his supporters, and a big way nixon did. >> i know a lot of democrats out there that watch this show and watch our show in the morning. i man the only guy in the wall republican here. i still don't know what you are willie. >> keep them guessing. >> keep them guessing. i can just tell you, even when i knew what was going on in chicago was staged, the republican in me kept wanting to, like, clinch my fist. there is something for conservatives that sees that on television, it's the antishis.
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donald trump knew exactly what he was doing, knew how to reach out to conservatives there. he had people from the national review for over a year saying if this is what this campaign is going to be like, i'm on trump's side. and i think that just may play in missouri, it play play. >> illinois. >> illinois, he is approximate he shally. >> cook county. >> in illinois, do we want to look at the history of illinois, cities north of the mason dixon line. >> alabama than it is like minneapolis. >> are you saying alabama is not like minneapolis? >> no, they both have starbucks and target, but except for that. >> you guys are punchy. >> earlier today, new jersey
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governor spoke about what he saw at recent trump vallrallies. >> i bring a sense of calm. yesterday i was at three. north carolina, ohio and florida. all three of them were calm. i think at the north carolina one, maybe one or two protesters who left very calmly after they stood up to hold up a sign or whatever they were doing. i this think has been something that's quite frankly been overblown by the media coverage. i'm tired of seeing the same loop of two or three confrontations that occurred in chicago, played over and over and over again. i think that donald made the right decision in canceling the events to ensure no one would be injured. >> you were out on the campaign trail in 2008. i can tell you, even though i was not a sarah palin fan, i got so sick and tired of joe biden getting 121 people at events, sarah palin getting close to 10,000, and reporters feverishly running through the crowds, trying to find the one person
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with the offensive side so they could lead the evening newscast. that was manufacturered nonsense for the most part. is this different? trump people would say you're going out looking for the one person. >> they did roll the same video again and again of violence. >> yeah, and i'm -- i'm asking this from people that are out on the trail. are you guys hearing that this is something significantly different than say, you know, a couple of people, holding nasty signs up in sarah palin rallies in 2008. >> my perception, attending the rallies and talking to the reporters, including this network and others, the energy at the trump rallies has progressively gotten more tense. >> right. >> and gotten more frout. >> can you give us a timeline on that? is that when he started telling people punch them in the face? when did it turn. >> some of that certainly, again, i don't think -- i think
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what trump has done is inexcusab inexcusable. although sarah palin said things, there wag was nothing -- >> she said he was palling around with terrorists. >> that's provocative too. >> many from the mccain campaign thought it was. it wasn't urging anybody in her crowds, at harreer rallies. that's the difference. i think that tracks to some degree of the mood. >> we were in new hampshire, we saw a trump rally, it wasn't ugly there. but since new hampshire, there does seem to be an intensity. >> i was at the event in las vegas where he said punch him in the face, and there were some pretty intense people there. there were some signs there that weren't very polite. you see it at democratic events too. you can't emphasize enough. the vast, vast majority of people at the trump rallies are nice, polite, calm.
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they're excites today see donald trump. >> it's the candidate who is saying punch him in the face or i'll pay the legal fees. >> he is. >> get him out. that's the one thing that's different. >> i will say, there a double standard, which is if people supporting donald trump went to hillary clinton's events or bernie sanders' events and disrupted them and shouting loud near the stage, i don't think the press would cover it the same way. >> i read neither hillary clinton or bernie sanders would say the things donald trump would say from the stage. that's not perfect angry. >> the point is people are disrupting the events. people are disrupting his events. >> every single event. i will said, i read a new york times piece, it might have been by ashley parker, talking about the difference of trump people. everyone she talk would to is unfailingly polite and kind, and was almost struck by how unfailingly polite the trump supporters. that's why i'm making your point here, the trump supporters that i've seen at the rallies, i gist
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guess ashley reported, polite for the most part. there are some bad seeds in every rally. but this does all go to the candidate, saying punch him in the face -- >> i love it when the protesters come out. i love the protesters. >> and the things he says about the press, which again, one of the things that amped up, is when the time magazine was put in a choke hold and thrown to the ground. the other thing is when the alleged incident happened with corey lewandowski, marco rubio made the point that if someone accused his campaign manager, he would be out of the race. i think that's probably right. many other candidates, if they were accused of such a thing, proff proven, unproven, it would be a scandal, it would be a problem. all of these things come together, press talks about them, trump talks about the press, protesters, both. >> language at the rallies has
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become totally normal lies dollars. it was shocking at first to hear, use the language he used. we were all at the rally, when he invoke dollars the p word. >> he said puma, who talks about basketball shoes. >> joe. >> it gives people license in the crowd to act up. >> a trump fan from the binning. ron forreer joins us. we are here until 5:00 p.m. eastern tonight. we're going to try to stay longer if they let us. we're going to continue with special coverage. you can't get the primary results as they get underway with chuck todd. we'll be right back.
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all candidates have an obligation to do what they can do to try and provide an atmosphere of hor no atmosphere harmony. >> we've heard vulgar rhetoric. we've seen misguided attempts to shut down that speech in response to those attempts, we've seen actual violence. and we've heard silence from too many of our leaders. speaker ryan, i appreciated the words on this topic that you shared with us this morning, but too often, we've accepted this as somehow the new normal. >> we're back, live with a special edition of afternoon joe on msnbc, joining us now, senior political columnist, ron
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fournier. >> he is going to have an endorsement. today is the day he endorses trump. >> he's feeling it. >> the blunt column, in the atlantic that rips into the presidential front-runners, and americans politics at large. ron, i'm going to read from your piece, entitled circling the drain with trump. i fear much more violence, cour courseenning of the culture, and addressing the nation's long-term problems. public cynicism to the fragile institutions. i fear the brightest young americans will abandon government and politics. i fear, no, i expect, several more cycles of sir chilling the drain. what i don't know is what comes next. final plunge into the abyss, or recircling and renewal. the american public stops settling for demagogues like trump.
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building over time, a new set of institutions for campaigning and governing in the 21st scertain tree, only if the country wakes up. glass half full, you're too optimistic. >> buzz kill. >> we talked about this this morning. >> thank you. >> i want to press you now. i want to press you. >> please do. >> we're going to be positive for a second here. because there are some positive things to see in the campaign. first of all, participations, certainly at a record high. if you look at at least the republican side of things. we have a different debate or town hall meeting it seems every night, so much so, people are complaining we're hearing too much from candidates. that's a positive thing as well. you are actually saying social media, under cutting $115 million worth of super pac spending. there are some positive things.
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you've written columns about this. >> yeah. >> there are some positive trends coming out of this campaign. if you ignore the candidates. >> well, even with trump, look, donald trump is showing us how you could disrupt the politics in a new way. i wish he would do it in a positive way. for example, what if hillary clinton had been as transparent and accessible on all media, new and old, as donald trump has been from the start. i don't thk she would be in the position she is right now. what if we, if politicians stop tithing 10% to consultants and went directly to the people, instead of the tv ads. >> a lot of people have been critical of us and others for taking trump any time he calls in. you talk about hillary clinton. do you know how many time weiss take hillary clinton if she would call in. >> every time. >> every time. >> you know, as many times as we took mike huckabee, why, because
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he called in all the time. >> it's a chance to hear what they have to say. >> exactly. >> people call in, we're going to ask them questions. >> we ask tough questions. >> do you think there a possibility that politicians may get out of their. >> little boxes. >> little boxes, bubbles, whatever you want to call it and understand from trump that you have to be accessible and the more accessible you are, actually, the more forgiveness people give you if you do commit a gaff or five. >> also to be fearless. >> exactly. >> one of the things with hillary clinton, she doesn't have the confidence, she is afraid of making a mistakes. she is overly cautious. trump, you could make eight mistakes a day, if you connect directly with people, accessible as he is. i don't think, look, i think our biggest problem is us. this is still our government. what i was trying to make the point in that story is we have to stop accepting is president obama, the new normal.
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not just with the violence, but everything. we don't have to accept having a candidate who is obviously saying things that is bigoted and sexist and divisive and evacous. as a democratic, you don't have to put up with a candidate who did something that was obviously in violation of federal policy, and obviously undermining the freedom of information act, and historical record, and the whole principle legislative oversight. we can tell the folks, even folks we plan to vote for. >> right. >> no, no more of this bs. we have to start governing in a different way. campaigning in a different way. >> willie, ron, i mean, he said, donald trump said if he gets the nomination, he can pivot, nominate himself. if he becomes president, he certainly will not behave the way he has behaved on the campaign trail. why would he change his behavior? >> look, myself, one vote, i can't tell anybody else to vote.
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i've already seen who donald trump is. he can pivot, a word from the 1990s by the way, he can move to the middle. another phrase from a different certain tre century, a lot of people have said this is the guy they want. he can pivot all he wants and talk about different positions, but i know who he is. it's going to be hard to do this pivoting and reclalibrating. >> so ron, let's really quickly, we've got to go to break, but we showed a clip and i hope you saw it, of a woman in eastern ohio, obviously reagan democratic country, who said that she has never voted for a republican, her father would turnover in his grave if he knew that she voted for a republican today, and the only republican she will ever vote for is donald trump. she voted for him today, and that sounds like a lot of the
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friends that you met when you went back to michigan last summer. >> i grew up in detroit. my whole neighborhood moved to mohocohom county. i know these people. they're so tired. the democratic party abandoned them. >> why is she doing this? this woman is not a racist. >> i don't know if she is or not, but i'm going to assume she is not. there are a lot of people the other party has neglected her, other party has broken promises to her if she was a republican. everyone is looking for a new normal. her, she has been someone who has been let down by the democratic. she wants to try something else. the devil i don't know. it doesn't mean she is stupid. it means she wants a change. in any american with, you know, if you stop and think about it, we all realize that the system has to be changed dramatically. >> yeah, it's going to be dramatic. ron fournier, thank you very much. >> thank you, ron. we love talking to you.
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>> thanks for having me on. >> still ahead, can john kasich stop trump tonight in ohio. the governor says he was never tempted to go negative. and now, it is paying off. >> by continuing to run the race, the positive campaign is now started to shine through, like a beacon, all over the country. in terms of rolling around in the mud, that's not where i intend to ever go, even in the fall election.
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all right, coming up, we're going to head to florida, with the state's chief elections official, predicting an historic turnout four other states, final polls close at 8:00 eastern time. we have much more. stay with us right here on msnbc.
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all right, it is 37 past the hour, nbc's jacob rascon, in
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florida. hearing voters upset that their candidates aren't on the ballots. donald trump tweeting a lot of complaints from people, saying my name is not on the ballot in various places in florida. hope this is false. jacob, what can you tell us about this? >> at the voting location where we are, we haven't heard that complaint about donald trump. we have heard it about bernie sanders, but it was a complaint that came from a person who didn't understand that this was a closed primary. they were expecting that they would be able to see bernie sanders on the ballot, even though they failed to declare or affiliate. you have to have done that here. 29 days in advance, and she didn't do that. it's unclear if that is what happened in the cases where there are complaints about donald trump's name. but the florida secretary of state said that in essence, if you have understand it's a closed primary. you have to have declared republican or democratic 29
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days, if you wanted to see donald trump or bernie sanders on your ballot, depending on who you're going for. you can't watch tv for ten minutes of course without seeing some of the anti-trump ads. out spent 8-1, $12 million to $2 million. but donald trump is laser focused, moving fast florida, on ohio, that was evidenced in the fact that he skipped the florida event instead, going to one in ohio. and that all of his tweets are about ohio. betting that he could win as the jobs candidate promising to bring back jobs specifically. manufacturing jobs, he is laser focused on that. he knows if he could win ohio, that's a real victory, wrap it up, knock people out of the race. all of it tonight. >> all right. thank you so much, we greatly appreciate it. i have to tell you, willie, he is reporting about ballot
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problems. apart of the country that is i'm from florida, not had problems with ballot problems never before. >> no. >> you take a place like west palm beach. >> he is leading, pat buchanan, this is buchanan territory. >> okay. >> did your grandma accidentally vote for alex, yeah, really? i love talking to pat about it. he says they love me in west palm joe. >> okay. >> i want to talk really quickly to mark over here. >> go right ahead. >> he wanted to talk, so i love bringing people out of the shells, i'm going to do that now. you wanted to talk about just how disorganized anti-trump is. >> they're looking past tonight, a range of events, knowing they're going to have to stop him no matter how well or poorly he does tonight. they are so divided about what to do next. >> still divided. >> are they better off with a four-way with rubio staying in, even if he loses, are they
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better off with a three way if kasich stays in. can you stop trump at the convention if he doesn't have the majority. they put out this great ad yesterday of women actresses, denouncing trump about women. have you heard a single prominent man or woman. >> nope. >> speak out in a way to multiply that ad. they're still divided about strategy, tactics and about how big their coal lieition is. >> the number of ads run against donald trump over the past two weeks has been almost unprecedented. i mean, millions and millions of dollars spent trying to destroy donald trump in florida, and the guy right now, by all measures, seems to be running away with the race. >> through sunday, "washington post" reported, money spent, $35.5 million against all other candidates, $25 million.
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$10 million more. >> can i see that. >> yes. >> that's from the post. across the states. >> so look at this, all the people that say donald trump has not been attacked, $35.5 million against trump, $24 million, one more story line, willie, one more narrative about donald trump, that is just not true. as far as the attacks against dthd. the media coverage against donald trump. why doesn't anybody attack donald trump. we've said it from the beginning. it only seems to be strengthening for some weird reason. >> it looks good for him. we talked about the stop trump thing, like a great cohesive group. do they have business meetings? who are these people? why weren't they doing a better job from stopping trump. >> some people are afraid of him, some people think it's impossible. they've reached different judgments how to do it. they don't is a single plan, a
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single war room. he is the obvious beneficiary of that. you couldn't make the ceo of a company if he said the things he said about women. >> i don't know, if he said one of them, you would be fired. >> yeah. >> look at the dude that ran lulu lemon. he said offensive things. donald trump. >> and those pants. >> has done that a million times over. >> what is so interesting is that those were coming out now like they're news. these are things he said on howard stern years ago. they're everywhere. if you talk to trump supporters, oh, you know what he means, to everything. to everything bad that he ever says, they go, oh, no, he doesn't mean that. you know what he means. >> he is not politically correct. >> a stand by from a voter where a guy said he is a mass sisongy
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>> we'll be right back, right here on msnbc.
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ted cruz hoping tonight's results will keep him in the running with donald trump when it come the to the delegate count. currently trailing 95 delegates. joining us from houston, hallie jackson, covering the cruz campaign for us. hallie, good to see you in the afternoon. this could be, depending on how the race goes, we could be looking at a two person race between donald trump and ted cruz if donald trump wins both ohio and florida. >> reporter: right. and that's exactly what ted cruz wants to see, guys. i mean, you look at first of all, why he is in houston today. a down day in texas before he comes here for his watch party later tonight. he has been talking about a two man race for weeks, for months really, trying to narrow it down between him and donald trump. we've seen it since the beginning of the year. for cruz, it's interesting. if you look at the projections
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on the delegate math, where the counts stack up, it's not essentially if kasich wins ohio or trump wins this or rubio. regardless, he still has to get a certain percentage of the delegates. it's clear he is not going to be in the mix. so instead, he is focusing his efforts on missouri, mnorth carolina, illinois, five stop tour yesterday. he is upping his attacks on donald trump, specifically in illinois, with talking about rahm emanuel, rod blajovich. here is how the senator responded. >> thank you, sir. very charming of you. i appreciate your being here and i appreciate free speech. and sir, thank you, thank you for being here. >> go back to canada. >> no, no, no.
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sir, we will be respectful. see, sir, one difference between this and a donald trump rally. i'm not asking anyone to punch you in the face. >> reporter: so cruz, you hear the crowd roaring their approval, referencing what has been having over the last few days at donald trump rallies. a big key guys. wake up in his bed here in houston tomorrow. he'll be locked in a race between donald trump or john kasich will be in it. those are the scenarios. >> what a race, where the candidate has to make the d distinction that i will not ask you to be punched in the face. steve kornacki joining us next, crunching the numbers for us.
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no -- you have your protractor? >> i don't have any protractor. >> you are in so much trouble with mr. kornacki!
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welcome back to our super tuesday coverage, where voting is already underway in five key states. joining us now, the teacher you always wanted to have. >> love this guy. >> he's going to take us through the delegate math. nbc's steve kornacki. do you have your compass? >> no detentions. i don't believe in giving out detentions. >> that's right! >> the kids love detention. >> what are you looking at tonight? let's do the most likely scenario. he wins florida, kasich takes out ohio and it's close in illinois and missouri. >> let's give cruz missouri for the purposes of this and give trump narrow wins in illinois and north carolina. i think, then, donald trump, if you play it out from there, he's a little more than halfway to where he needs to be, 1,237 being the magic number. and if you basically say rubio goes away pretty much tonight, after losing florida, you got a three-way race going forward. if you make some pretty conservative assumptions from that point forward. if you say, all the states after march 15th, donald trump crack 50%. he wins some, but doesn't crack
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50%. if you get cruz the types of states he's winning right now, south dakota, nebraska, places like that, make him competitive in the other states and make kasich competitive in places like connecticut. >> and we assume that the dump trump group actually gets their act together to hold him under 50. >> right, they're actively going at him. if you put all of that in motion, and we try to play this out. we ended up with donald trump coming short of 1,237, but not by much. 1,197 is the number we got, playing oplay ing it out like that. so with a few more things going right after march 15th for him, he could clear 1,237. a few more things going wrong, he could miss it. >> how much does it change if trump has a big night and takes ohio? >> that's the game changer. if he gets ohio tonight, he pretty much -- if he gets ohio and florida, not only are you looking at a delegate trajectory that's going to take him over 1,237, you're also looking at knocking out case skpkasich andn
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the spot. so cruz could get his one on one, but at that point, cruz is like 300 to 350 delegates behind. the other wild card, where is the race going from here? to trump country, the northeast, to his best states. >> bottom line, if trump wins ohio, ekes out a win and gets all those delegates, you see him clearing the majority and we don't have that contested convention. >> i've heard people say ohio is the deciding point here. if he wins it, he's got the nomination, if he doesn't, we're going to an open convention. i look at it this way, if he wins ohio, he's your nominee. if he doesn't win ohio, he could still break 1,237. i think that's very -- i think it becomes a 50/50 thing from this point forward that he breaks 1,237 in the primary season. >> okay, mr. kornacki is going to stay with us. don't you worry, we have much more to come on this special super tuesday edition of "afternoon joe" we're back in just a moment.
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okay. it's about to get good. welcome back to "afternoon joe." top of the hour now. 4:00 on the east coast, and that means about in one hour, we'll have our very first look at exit polls on one of the most important days of this election so far. one group we'll be watching, those reagan democrats, working class, blue-collar voters who may be crossing over to help donald trump. the republican front-runner says he could bring over even more than the 40th president did in 1980 and 1984. msnbc's steve kornacki is still with us, and joining the table, member of the "wall street journal" editorial board, mary kissel. how are you feeling today, mary? >> i feel excited. >> you good? >> i feel excited. >> we have a report from mama kissel. >> mamma kissel says there are a lot of seniors in palm beach county holding up trump signs. so, hello, patricia. >> don't say that to your daughter. she'll be upset. in cleveland, ohio, former ted
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cruz communications director, now a political contributor here at msnbc, rick tyler is with us as well, along with joe, willie, and me. what a great group. >> a great group. so? >> so, willie, what are you looking at right now? >> i'm looking squarely at ohio, for the reasons steve kor knack y just said. it looks like based on all the polling donald trump will have a good night in florida. ohio is still up for grabs. it's a close race and a popular governor there. if donald trump can win ohio, i don't want to say it's over, but steve kornacki pointed out he has a clear path to the delegates and no contested convention. >> if he wins ohio along with florida, it's just really -- >> the one asterisk there is that assumes he would also take north carolina and illinois. if he loses north carolina and illinois and wins ohio and florida, i can't imagine that scenario, technically that could happen and then it's still a wide-open race. >> and it's very interesting. you said something eer

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