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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  March 15, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm PDT

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good evening. i'm chuck todd here in new york. here we go again, folks. welcome to msnbc's special live coverage of tonight's do-or-die primary contest. i'm calling it separation tuesday. a lot of people are going to call it other stuff. but at any minute, we'll have our first look at the early exit polls in tonight's five key contests. every one of the five have something interesting to offer. there isn't one you want to just blow off. it will be our first glimpse into the mood and makeup of these crucially important electorates. that includes, of course, ohio, probably the biggest prize of the night, where all eyes are on john kasich, in a state that the anti-trump forces must win. and we are less than 2 1/2 hours from polls closing in the buckeye state. we'll also start getting results from north carolina at that hour. and just an hour later, it's florida, illinois, and missouri. hundreds of delegates in play. an historic night is ahead,
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folks. a general election matchup hangs in the balance. and as i mentioned at the top, in some ways, it's here we go again, tuesday. on the right, once again, it is all on the line for the republican forces against trump. they think they can stop him this time, wile e. coyote. if ohio follows tonight, kasich is out. if florida goes to trump, rubio is probably finished. when the dust settles, trump could have an iron grip on the nomination, or again, maybe lucy doesn't pull the football. on the left, once again clinton tries to put away a surprisingly resilient sanders' campaign. can he pull off more upsets in the industrial midwest? last week's dramatic win in michigan indicates that he might. ohio, illinois, and missouri all could be fertile ground for the big issue of trade for mr. sanders. our nbc reporters are fanned out across the five states. they're in the trenches with the candidates and with the electorates, as they await tonight's results. we're going to check in with each one in just a moment, but we start the night, because how
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could you not, with the republican wrecking ball himself these days, donald trump. it's been quite a day. tonight's contests are taking place in the shadow of recent violence, arrests, threats, violence, and simple chaos on the trail. and here we go again. paul ryan, who will be the chairman of this summer's convention in cleveland, ripped into trump again today, urging the candidates not to incite violence. he certainly wasn't focusing on cruz or rubio or kasich when he said that. but despite the criticism, he made it clear that ryan will back trump if he's the nominee. >> the republican primary voters are going to make this decision. when i see our principles being distorted, we're going to stand up in defense of our principles. not just conservative republicans, republican principles, but american principles. at the same time, what can we control? we can control our agenda. that's what we're doing. with respect to who the nominee is going to be, that's going to be selected by the voters. >> and speaking of here we go
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again, president obama took direct aim at trump again. this time over the unrest and the rhetoric that has consumed trump's campaign of late. and he also appeared to criticize the anti-trump crowd as well. take a listen. >> we have heard vulgar and divisive rhetoric. we've seen misguided attempts to the shut down that speech. in response to those attempts, we've seen actual violence. it is a cycle that is not an accurate reflection of america. and it has to stop. >> and john kasich stepped up his criticism of the republican front-runner today. he told reporters that a recent ad which spotlights some of trump's crude language about women, spoken by women, had quite an impact on him. >> i just saw a commercial, i guess it was last night, of these comments that were made about women. i have two daughters. they see this stuff. what do you think they think?
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we'll have more to say about that. it was really the first time that my eyes were really opened, which meant i was probably like a normal voter, to be honest with you. >> it's an interesting way he put it. first time that his eyes were wide open when it comes to all things trump. well, we're not done yet. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said he spoke to trump about his rhetoric and the violence on the trail. and here's mcconnell's read out of that phone call. >> i took the opportunity to recommend to him that no matter who may be triggering these violent expressions or conflicts that we've seen in some of these rallies, it might be a good idea to condemn that and discourage it, no matter what the source of it is. >> that's about as diplomatic as it comes with mitch mcconnell. but folks, if trump is to be stopped, it all comes down to ohio, at a minimum, tonight. but perhaps missouri and florida as well. if trump wins in florida and knocks out kasich in ohio,
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trump's some going to need 52% of all remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. and guess what, he won't even need to get 50% of the vote to get 52% of the delegates. but get this, trump has not one more than 50% of the vote in a single state yet. in fact, he's only picked up more than 45% of the vote in just three states. we're going to dig deeper into this and explain how it could be the last final rationale for anti-trump forces to stick to their campaign to stop him. we shall see. but with all that said, let's now go around the horn here a little bit. i'm joined by jacob rascon, who is in west palm beach, covering the trump campaign, where we expect, at some point, to hear from trump, after he hunkers down with tonight's results. so, jacob, we know that -- i've seen on twitter, you've got the trump campaign crying foul already about the florida results. it's sort of the second day in a row he's complained about the florida voting. and every poll seems to have him
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up double digits. i wonder why he's complaining. >> yeah, and he's done this before, where he said, i'm hearing that there are issues at the voting polling places. now, here behind me in west palm beach, we've actually heard from people complaining that they haven't been able to vote their candidate. but it's because, so far, they haven't understood that florida is a closed primary. and they would have had the to have affiliated and declared 29 days ago, and they simply forgot to do that. we saw that with a couple of people who wanted to vote bernie sanders. through there are reports or people calling in, saying that they are having issues finding their candidate, donald trump, on the ballot. it may be because they simply misunderstood that florida is a closed primary. though we have had a lot of early voting. we've had the republican party out in force and making sure they're doing what they need to do to get the voter turnout where they want it to be. so, it may be something that donald trump and the campaign already know is not really an issue, but they like to talk about it, anyway.
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>> no, but you -- thank you, jacob. you bring up an important point, florida is a closed primary state. independents can not participate in this primary. you do get handed a ballot, if you are an independent or no-party affiliation in florida, just for municipal races. so that can explain why independents, thinking they were looking for trump, got a ballot, showed up, got a ballot, and there was no candidate for president for them to look at, because they didn't register either as a democrat or a republican. all right, let's turn to now the possible end of the road for the rubio campaign. some people believe he needs a miracle tonight. polls have rubio getting clobbered by trump, but it is a closed primary, so you don't know. and rubio has poured all of his attention and remaining resources into florida. just last week he said, point-blank, that, quote, you can't be the republican nominee if you don't win florida. but he did strike a very different tone on that issue on fox news last night. >> our plan is to be in utah on wednesday and continue to campaign hard. i've never said that my campaign is built on the outcome of any specific state, especially the way it's going now.
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>> for rubio, there is a rationale to stay in the race if he loses his home state. because it would neuensure thats delegates don't end up in trump's column, at least not immediately. let me go to gabe gutierrez, in miami with the rubio campaign. they're getting ready for their do-or-die moment. so i guess this question of, what does he do tomorrow? we've had all sorts of mixed reporting, the advance team is no longer in utah, he says he's still going. no one knows quite for sure what's going on with rubio on wednesday, because we don't know the results here on tuesday. >> that's right, chuck. we have not gotten any specific details about his plans for utah. as you can see behind me, this is among the smallest venues in the campaign during the last few weeks. and we have seen, i'm told by a campaign source, that it was a financial decision to hold it in this venue. and it is a steep hill to climb. many of the polls here in florida have him down anywhere from 17 to 20 points.
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the campaign telling me they see a much closer rate. they see high turnout here in miami-dade county could help him close the gap with donald trump. i will say, chuck, i just got off the phone with the campaign. and while they are completely focused in florida, right now, they do have a scare on their hands up in washington, d.c. they say that their campaign office there was just evacuated within the past hour, because of a suspicious white substance. they say the campaign has called hazmat to the scene as well as the police authorities. we have not gotten any confirmation from police on the scene and we do not know exactly what the situation is there. but again, the rubio campaign says they are now looking into a situation at their d.c. campaign office, but they do believe they can come from behind here in florida. chuck? >> we shall see. gabe, thanks very much. as we mentioned, at the top of the show, ohio is a must-win for john kasich and the gop establishment. trump could pull off an upset tonight. it's a tight race, despite kasich's sky-high approval rating in ohio and his roots in the state, we continue our
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journey around the country and peter alexander is with the kasich campaign in ohio. and peter, i've had this theory why kasich has a better shot at ohio is next year john kasich could still be governor of ohio. next year, marco rubio could be unemployed. >> yeah, no, that's exactly right. and john kasich, in addition to the high popularity approval ratings in this state, close to 80%, he's also undefeated. in 12 tries, he's never lost here in local and statewide elections. he's putting that on the line again tonight. i want to share some information from you. i just spoke to some aides, literally within the last ten minutes. yesterday, they were extraordinarily confident that they would win in the state tonight. when i spoke to them five minutes ago, i said, how do you feel now that you have a little bit of information on how things are going today? they said, more confident than yesterday. so what explains that besides the typical bluster you hear on a night like this? it may be the hard data that they are seeing from around the state that our own reporters are sharing with us right now. this note i just got from chris jansing a mart of minutes ago, at a polling place in suburban
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cleveland, not far from where we are. i want to share it with you. this is a location where they expect a two to one vote, about 66% republicans on a normal night. they said, as of 4:00 p.m., it was three to one republicans. 73% republicans, driven largely by democrats that are crossing over. it would sound, at first glance, that may be good news for donald trump. of course, he has deep roots with white working class voters, a large population in the state. but chris reports that the interviews there suggest this is largely anti-trump voters trying to support john kasich, their home-state governor. chuck, back to you. >> peter, well, we shall see. that's an interesting development, if it's true. meanwhile, that also could be a help to bernie sanders. that's why we're not 100% clear on where all of this is going. now let's go to texas. why texas? they're not voting today, but it's where ted cruz is holding his watch party tonight. and where he'll be -- he'll be quietly rooting for kasich to pick up those 66 ohio delegates
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that are not trump. cruz could be a dark horse tonight. he's got a chance to pull off victories in missouri and they've been focusing hard on north carolina and he's been competitive in illinois. so, who knows? he's been -- he could be a guy that gets totally shut out tonight, or could be a guy that wins multiple states. hallie jackson is in houston, in the trenches of the cruz campaign. hallie, they've been pursuing a delegate strategy, and i think no matter what, i think they believe they will be, at least at a minimum, second in delegates tonight. even ahead of kasich, if kasich wins ohio. >> reporter: absolutely, chuck. and at this point, they don't need to necessarily win any states outright, at least, that's what they believe. they believe, as long as they can pick off a big number of delegates in the states you mentioned, north carolina, ohio, and missouri, then they will be in good shape. obviously, it's icing on the cake to pick up those wins and helps to show momentum against donald trump. but if the cruz campaign is going to make this a two-man race tomorrow, cruz will need to show momentum in order to pick up the delegates he needs to lock down the nomination, if
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that's mathematically possible, before a contested convention, chuck. let's talk about some of these states here. illinois is a place where the campaign is now feeling stronger than they were. it's why you saw cruz hit five stops yesterday, in four different congressional districts. you know why congressional districts are important in that state. it's proportional delegation, so even if trump were to win some of the winner-take-all delegates in illinois, cruz could come out second in the delegate math. cruz has said, he doesn't believe people who are mathematically ineligible, essentially, to get to the nomination without a contest convention should continue to play ball here. tonight's interesting for cruz. he could wake up tomorrow in the two-man race that they wants. or he could wake up tomorrow and john kasich could be in the race, potentially marco rubio could be in the race. a lot riding on this for cruz. >> and does he really want to be in the two-person situation with trump with a commanding lead. >> they'll point to head-to-heads and say that they do. >> they say it, but i don't know
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if that's how to stop trump from getting the nomination. and believe it or not, all of that is just half of tonight's showdown. clinton may have a commanding lead in the delegates, but tonight's contest in ohio and illinois could be ripe targets for sanders. what if he wins three of five? this is the industrial northern states in the footprint of michigan, where sanders scored that dramatic upset last week. and tensions are still running high between these two campaigns. today in chicago, bill clinton had some sharp words about bernie sanders. >> this should be a race for president. skpf there's a blame candidate and a responsibility candidate in this race. and i'm betting the responsibility candidate will win. >> and then sanders' senior adviser tad devine rejected that characterization in an interview with andrea mitchell and moments ago, andrea mitchell spoke with hillary clinton about that attack. let's watch. >> contrary to what you're seeing with the republicans, we're actually running a campaign on issues, not insults. >> president clinton today went
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after bernie sanders in chicago and said that he's the blame candidate and that you're the responsibility candidate. that's being personal. >> oh, i don't think so. i think that that's pointing out that we have very different visions of where we are in the country and where we need to go. >> we turn now to kristen welker, who's at the palm beach county convention center. that's where the clinton campaign is. very interesting. the clinton campaign and the trump campaign are all in the same county tonight, miss welker. but i don't know if she's going to be able to turn her focus to mr. trump tonight. she may still have to worry about mr. sanders. >> yeah, it's a great way to frame the question, chuck. you're absolutely right. she wants to turn her sights towards donald trump, and we've seen her increasingly do that on the campaign trail, but she can't quite get there yet, because of this increasing threat from senator sanders. i've been talking to campaign officials throughout the day. they say they feel confident they're going to walk away with more delegates tonight, that
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secretary clinton will expand her delegate lead by winning florida and north carolina. they're feeling very confident about those two states. but will they actually win the night? will she actually put this race ouch reach? that is the big question mark, and all eyes are on the midwestern states right now. senator sanders looking very close in illinois and ohio. our polls have shown her with a pretty big lead. but a lot of folks think this is going to be much closer in ohio, so those crossover votes you heard peter talking about, a big concern for the clinton campaign tonight. >> it is. and ohio may be the state that sort of decides who won the night. even if on delegates, we know that clinton's likely to win the night, because of north carolina and florida. anyway, kristen welker, thanks very much. let's turn now to kasie hunt in phoenix, arizona, where sanders is getting ready to hold his election night rally. and why? because one week from today, the action turns to arizona and utah, and they think they could actually do very well in both of those states, but it all starts with winning three tonight.
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kasie, how confident are they? >> reporter: that's right, chuck, i think they are -- let's say, praying for a win in ohio. they're confident they're going to pull it out in missouri. it's ohio they feel like will make the difference. but what you were just talking through with kristen is right. if they can't post a win in one of these big midwestern states that surprises people and says, hey, sanders has appeal beyond some of these smaller caucus states we have seen him win, he's going to hang in this. that's going to really be the drds of the night. now, i will say, one place to keep an eye on is north carolina. there's no one in the sanders' campaign that's saying privately, they're going to win out right there. but they do feel better about it than what limited public polling there is shows and they feel like they might be able to keep the delegate margins close there. but i have to say, chuck, again, this is a candidate who really resents being pushed out of this race by the media or by his opponent or by anybody else. so i think the more the clinton campaign does that, the more he's going to fight back on that
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point. >> that's for sure. >> and boy, after tonight, he could run off seven straight victories. does that change the nature of this race? we shall see. kasie hunt, thanks very much. we'll get our first look at the exit polls and dig deeper into the numbers, right after the break. we've got to make the graphics and everything. give us a couple of minutes. you'll get them first, right here. stay tuned.
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we are getting our first glimpse at the exit polling data from today's separation tuesday states. according to the nbc news exit poll, of those who have voted so far, half or fewer of democratic primary voters today say they would be satisfied with the outcome if their favored candidate doesn't end up the eventual nominee. taking a look first at hillary clinton's voters across the five states today, about half say they would be satisfied if sanders were the eventual nominee. while about as many would be dissatisfied. for their part, sanders' voters are seminally divided about the
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prospect of a clinton nomination. slightly more would be dissatisfied if hillary clinton was the nominee than satisfied. it's not a bad little thing. we'll have much more, though, from the exit poll data on the republican side of things with steve kornacki, right after the break.
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a little after 5:00 p.m. eastern, polls are still open for two or more hours on this separation tuesday. but we've got some of the first exit polls. joining he now at the big board for some quick early analysis, is steve kornacki. mr. kornacki, i always want to let people know, this is first, two waves, at most, and there is a pattern with the third wave, which is both bernie sanders and donald trump, seem to improve on the third wave. part of that may be that they're appealing to working people, who don't vote until after 5:00. so, all the lawyerly thing out of the way. take it away. >> all the asterisks there. the other thing, what we're looking at here is data coming from all of these states, or at least all of these states where these questions were asked.
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here on the republican side, we wanted to ask that question and see what the answer was. would you be satisfied as a republican with donald trump being your candidate against hillary clinton? a trump/clinton matchup in november. republican voters today across all the states, would you be satisfied with that choice? 57% said they would be. nearly 40% said they would consider a third-party candidate in that scenario. so, obviously, that seems high. however, take a look at it this way. this is where we say, this wasn't from all five states. this was from two states. illinois and missouri, the only two states where this was asked, but it's interesting. asking republicans, if trump was the nominee, would you definitely vote for him? just over half. probably? 19% would not vote for him in november. 27%. if you add those two together, the definitely and probably, that combined number for trump is 71%. the question is, how does that compare to the alternatives? what we did in this exit poll, ask one alternative here. ted cruz, same question, and look at this, actually, that combined number is not much different. for trump, it was 71%, who would definitely or probably vote for
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him in november, for ted cruz, the combined number is 75%. so that's something to keep in mind there. also, look at the overall composition of the states, white evangelicals, we always talk about how important they are. a slightly smaller number today. 45%, we've seen in the combination of the earlier contests before tonight, that number was about ten points higher. also, ideology, largely in line with what we're seeing about three quarters, describing themselves as very or somewhat conservative. on the democratic side, also, in line with what we've seen in a electorate that over the last eight years, since the obama/clinton matchup in 2008, has grown significantly more liberal. in these states, in 2008, 45% called themselves liberals. the combined number there, today, that number over 60%. we have seen this in every contest to date, on the democratic side. so that's a quick look, chuck, at some of the numbers coming in right now. >> that's right. hopefully, steve, i saw, we want to keep going we know we want to make more numbers and more boards and more boards. we've got the googlinging
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monkeys doing that right now. yeah, i said googling monkeys. so we are a long road ahead awaits both of them. but tonight, we may no if hillary clinton's path will take a turn towards the general election. what better person to talk about this than with david plough. he was campaign manager of the groundbreaking 2008 obama campaign and currently is a hillary clinton supporter. mr. plough, welcome, sir. >> chuck, good to see you. do we have an audio issue with david plough? david, you don't hear us? >> i can hear you, chuck. >> well, then i don't hear you. all right. we've got an audio issue, we will go to break and fix it right now. we'll be right back. msnbc's special coverage -- somebody is messing with our audio, but, hey, we'll figure it out.
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welcome back. we got our audio issue fixed. i think we're going to blame metro. as everyone knows, washington,
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d.c.'s metro system is a mess. i'm back with david plough, campaign manager for obama's two successful campaigns, a hillary clinton supporter. so david, let me ask you this, the clinton campaign might have asked you for this advice, how do you handle the pivot, if donald trump starts looking more like the republican nominee tonight, he's going to start aiming his fire at her. bernie sanders may have a pretty good night tonight, even if she wins the night on delegates, she's going to have a little momentum. you've got to fight a two-front war all of a sudden. how do you do it? >> well, we had to do that in 2008. mccain secured the nomination three months before we did. so hillary clinton will have to continue to win delegates and not seem like she is not contesting the primary. but listen, campaigns are very much about definition, defining yourself, your opponent in the race. so if trump has a great night tonight -- now, it's in the like cruz is going to drop out. so he's going to have to run through the tape, too. but you can't let that deaf
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fissi definition. so, this is not a small threat. >> dealing, though, with team sanders, right, there is -- and obviously, you've got to walk that line, because he can roll over the next seven contests. as you know, there isn't a friendly contest for her, arguably, until the middle of april. and he could roll seven in a row, and suddenly, you know, you had a bad may, but you have the math on your side in '08. you went through that before, but she's got to brace herself for a bad three weeks. >> listen, one of the things that i -- in looking at some of the numbers, a lot of democrats are requesting republican ballots in ohio. whether that's for kasich or trump, we don't know. but that probably comes out of hillary clinton's pile of votes. so sanders could win ohio and win missouri, be hillary clinton will improve her delegate lead tonight. probably win ohio by a healthy margin and could win florida by a healthy margin. so those caucus states, sanders do will well. but her delegate lead, i'm not even talking about the super
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delegates. the pledged delegate lead is impenetrable. but you can't do this in an arrogant way. many of the states coming up may be battleground states. you'll have to run through the tape. you cannot let trump get out of the gate, take advantage of three months, because by that point, it could be too late. if he defines the race and moves to the center in an unchallenged way, even with trump, a lot of people think it's an impossibility he could win the general election. i don't subscribe to that. i think trump could overperform in some ways. so sanders is going to stay in this. he's won a great race, but the delegate story is what the delegate story is. i know that's not very sexy, but that's the reality. >> math isn't a message, but it does work. let me ask you this, though. if you're trump, don't you use what sanders has used successfully against clinton, since they're actually aligned on some key economic issues? >> who knows, chuck, with trump.
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i mean that seriously. i mean, yeah, but the normal rule book doesn't apply with him. but i do think his strength, potentially in a general election, is that he casts aspersions on the entire election. right, center, new york, washington. so, yeah, i assume, and i think i'll see him move. we've seen him move rhetorically. and i think we'll see him move more. whether that's on climate change, whether he softens and lowers the height of his wall a little bit, i don't know what it's going to be with, and he'll be transparent about it. he won't say, yeah, you know, i've moved a little bit, but i'm trying to win the general election. and that has killed candidates through the years. it won't kill him. it hurt romney, it hurt mccain, it hurt kerry. >> if you're hillary clinton, do you use your running mate as a message -- is it better to use it as a message to define yourself, define an issue, maybe as populism or something like that, or try to appeal to both the sanders and have somebody that's tough enough to take on trump, or do you make a
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demographic play? what's the smarter play and the more effective way to use a running mate pick? >> well, you know, having gone through this process once, you know, if 2008, with senator obama, and then watch whing how john mccain and mitt romney handled it, politics is secondary. you've got to pick the person you want standing by you. it's what barack obama did with biden. it's not what mccain did with palin. i don't think you look at a demographic play or some kind of issue play. who do you want by your side, if something were to happen to you. you want someone who can prosecute the campaign. and i think hillary clinton will approach it that way. and by the way, people do not vote on the number two. they vote on the number one. and so i don't think there's any play there that will effect the election in material way. >> all right. david plough, i'm sure you're enjoying watching this rather than being in the middle of it. >> very, very much so, sir. >> i think so. >> very much so. >> all right, thank you, sir.
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good to talk to you. msnbc's special primary coverage will continue all nigh long until all five polls, all states are called. first, here's susan li with the cnbc market wrap. >> the dow gaining 22 points, the s&p 500 falling three points. the nasdaq shedding 21. the federal reserve has begun its two of day policy meeting. the federal bank will announce its decision at 2:00 p.m. on wednesday. retail sales ticked lower last month as gas prices fell and oracle sales are moving higher in after-hours. the company's earnings came in better than expected, but revenue fell short of estimates. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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so if you have been thinking about supporting marco rubio or
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john kasich, i encourage i welcome you to join our team. we welcome you with open arms. because our campaign is the only campaign that has beaten donald trump over and over and over again and can and will beat donald trump -- >> ted cruz is set to hold his election night rally in houston tonight, as the results come in. joining us from that site is former 2016 candidate and now a cruz supporter herself, carly fiorina. miss fiorina, welcome back to the show. >> thank you, chuck. nice to be with you. >> so, i want to ask you about what you're -- what you're hoping for tonight. is it about seeing trump lose primaries, regardless if it's losing to cruz or losing to kasich or losing to rubio, or is it more just about seeing cruz
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win? >> well, i think cruz is going to have a good night. but honestly, chuck, i think the question is what marco rubio and john kasich will do in the morning. here's what we know. we know that in closed primaries, where only republicans can vote, cruz beats trump. we also know that rubio and kasich are both taking votes away from ted cruz. among the many reasons i've endorsed ted is he's the only one who can beat donald trump, and i believe we have to beat donald tru donald trump fair and square at the ballot box. >> you don't believe in trying to create this deny trump the delegate strategy that you make it so that he can't win the nomination on the first ballot, and then after that, of course, who knows what would happen? >> i don't. i think that would cause, really, a very deep division, among the people who have voted. lots of people have voted for donald trump. and so i think the only way to
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beat him is to beat him, fair and square at the ballot box. now, it's also true that many democrats in independents have voted for donald trump. and that's why i bring up the issue of the closed primaries. when we have closed primaries, when republicans are choosing their nominee, ted cruz has beaten them. so i do think, really, it depends on what marco rubio and john kasich do tomorrow morning. and i very much hope they both will be statesmen like and exit the race. because that's what it's going to take now. we need to have a man-on-man contest and beat donald trump at the ballot box. >> you've said -- i wanted to bring up an ad that's out this morning against donald trump. and just all day long, when i knew you were going to be on the show, i was curious of your take on it. let me play the add. you're only going to hear the audio, but it's the ad of women saying the things that donald trump has said about women in the past. here it is. >> blood coming out of her wherever. >> women, you have to treat them like [ bleep ]. >> this is how donald trump
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talks about our mothers -- >> our sisters -- >> our daughters. >> if you believe america deserves better, vote against donald trump. >> when you hear that, do you think that ad alone makes it almost impossible for him to get elected in november? >> well, you know, i was listening to the segment right before you went to commercial break, and you guys have sort of decided that he's the nominee. we've got a lot of people left to vote here. look, i said from the moment donald trump entered the race that he does not represent me and he does not represent my party. but this race isn't over yet. and ted cruz has beaten him, ted cruz can beat him, and i believe ted cruz will beat him, and will be the nominee of our party. so, let's not jump ahead to november quite so fast. >> so, going back, if john kasich wins ohio, do you still think he should get out and get behind cruz? >> well, look, john kasich and marco rubio are honorable people and they've run honorable
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campaigns. and i know how strongly their supporters feel. i mean, i know how hard it is for supporters to see their candidate withdraw. on the other hand, even if john wins ohio, he realistically has no path. there is no path for him. he could not win michigan. he couldn't even come in second in michigan. and in ohio, of course, he has the entire party behind him. so he is in his strongest position in ohio. and there is no path beyond that. so, as i say, i hope both of them will take great pride in the campaigns they've run, but will consider carefully now what needs to happen. and we can't beat donald trump in a backroom deal. we need to beat him out in the open and at the ballot box. >> carly fiorina on behalf of the cruz campaign, thanks for coming on. >> thanks, chuck. >> let me turn now to nicole wallace, former communications director to president george w. bush and an msnbc news political analyst. nicole, this issue of the stop-trump movement, if he wins three or four states tonight, he's not going to win any of
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them probably over 50%, he hasn't done it yet. and i want to put up a little map. there's only three states where he's gotten over 45. there are six states where -- and nine states where he's gotten under 40. does that help the rationale of the anti-trump movement to say, you know what, he can't even -- he has yet to win 50% of republicans anywhere. does that matter? >> you and i both root for miami sports teams. the stop-trump movement doesn't have a lot of points on the board. and the stop-trump movement, in its most honorable form, i think is what carly described, an effort to beat him by his on e opponents. >> got to beat him fair and square. >> i think the fallacy of the argument that somehow ted cruz nah one on one race starts running away with this really overlooks the fact that trump does have a solid, very sticky base of support in the party. >> nothing moves it. >> right. >> he doesn't grow it, though. >> well, i don't know. >> he's having a hard time --
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>> it's bigger than anyone else's. >> it is, but it doesn't grow the way normal republican nominees grow as they win. >> for obvious reasons. and part of it is, i mean, you talked the this morning -- because we were together at 7:00 this morning, 6:00 this morning, about how he's being outspent in florida, what, eight to one. >> eight to one! >> i think the negative messages against trump are historic. and trump's communications devices are, you know, things he sends from his iphone. but i want to get to something else that carly said. these are the two undercurrents in the republican party. she talked about how kasich and rubio should get out and only cruz should stay in. cruz doesn't have any greater of a rationale to stay in than kasich does. >> he can't win this at the ballot box yet either. >> correct. >> the other fallacy, i think, she is boasting about the fact that the only play he is wins is in a closed primary. if this country were a closed republican primary, the republican party would never win another national election. so we need to stop making the argument that the guy we're
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putting our money on does great when the primaries are closed. >> all right, so, then, not only does that call for kasich to stay in if he wins ohio, doesn't that call for rubio to stay in, even if he loses florida? he's sitting on 150 to 200 delegates, that you want them to go unbound, and potentially become individuals that are for the taking of the first ballot by donald trump. >> listen, this stopped being about what i personally want a very long time ago. you and i had a line of communication during the last losing campaign that i worked on. these are tortured experiences. losing is really -- it's just a crushing experience. you know, for the staff, for the candidate, for the candidate's spouse and kids. it's really hard. soy just wouldn't deign to suggest what marco rubio should do. but there is a logistical piece to it, because of the extraordinary nature of this campaign. you know, and i think people no understand that when you get out, people have already voted for him, he's been awarded delegates, even when he's come in second or third, and there are a lot of people who want him to stay on, so he hangs on to
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those delegates. >> this is not an insignificant number. this is 150 to 200 pledged delegates. >> right. and the stop-trump movement, i don't want to say that it's gaining steam, but it's out there and it's noisy and there's going to be a lot of pressure on rubio to stay in. >> do you think the weekend's events, by trump, what happened in chicago, what he said on the sunday shows, has made it harder for him to unite this party? so the party is just going to continue on this quiet stop-trump movement? >> everything he has done since he announced in june, describing mexi mexica mexicans, you know, sending us their rapists -- everything he's done has made the news cycle. and the mystery to me, why was it this sunday that rubio gave that 13-minute, elegant, potentially persuasive press conference about this sort of turmoil. why weren't the candidates themselves making these points in the fall. >> that mitt romney speech. why didn't jeb bush give that
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speech two months ago? >> jeb called trump a chaos candidate before anyone else was attacking him. >> whatever the hell that meant. that was the weirdest phrase. >> i think it's -- >> what romney did was a coherent indictment. jeb -- i never understood the chaos candidate -- >> trump is an incoherent candidate, in my view. >> that's true. >> there's no precedent for the former standard-bearer coming out and announcing what he's against, but no what's he's for. >> that's the problem. chris matthews has put it best, the stop-x movement always been on x. >> right. >> nicole wallace, thank you very much. up next, we'll head back out to some of the states in play tonight. chris matthews will join me from cleveland. chris hayes joins me from chicago. stay tuned. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs.
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we are less than two hours from our first results on this separation tuesday. chris matthews and chris hayes join me with a preview of tonight's action. of course, you're going to keep it on msnbc all night until we call all five states for both sides. and guess what? pop your popcorn, we're probably here until after midnight. we shall see. so stay tuned. don't miss it.
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polls will start close anything just about 90 minutes from now. joining me from cleveland, chris matthews, and from chicago, the host of all in, chris hayes. chris matthews, let me start with you in ohio. it's sort of the definition of who wins tonight on the democratic side and the definition of whether the stop trump movement has any legs tonight. >> i agree with you. it's a hot state. i think ohio, i will say up front, it's fascinated me since i was a kid. ohio is always interesting in its politics. it is so american. it's sort of the american state. it decides who wins elections. tim russert pointsed out decades before that, ohio gave moderation to the rest of the country. i don't think it will lurch. hillary has a chance here. i think trump does too. it will be great to watch tonight, with all the factors of trade and all the other factors in american politics that work here. this is going to be wonderful to watch tonight. >> all you have to do is look at
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the two senators, rob portman and sharon brown. they represent both tendencies of ohio. moderate republican, populous democratic. >> exactly right. i was thinking of that, how some states are more poll arized. think john glenn. perfect senator for, you know, i don't think it's a bob taft any more, it used to be more conservative. it averages out. it has tensities over 100,000 people. more southern cincinnati and clumpious is more moderate of course. up north, around here, labor oriented. we'll see. we're going to see. >> that's right. the only thing missing demo graphically.
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on the democratic side, there is a candidate not on the ballot that is perhaps -- could be the reason why hillary clinton loses illinois if she loses. i'm of course referring to the mayor. >> yeah, it has been remarkable how hard bernie sanders has been hitting rahm emanuel. he put his sort of chewy gar see, high profile politicians to come in and campaign. he built up with the city's anti-rahm forces, african-american electorate frankly. and so there a fascinating racial dynamic playing out here. we've seen bernie sanders struggle with black voters, we saw him do better in michigan, losing 2-1, the interesting test tonight is does he sort of assemble this coalition in illinois, using a sort of bank shot off rom ahm ee emanuel, ber
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numbers from him here, particularly out of cook county, than we see any where else. >> it could be an aberration, reflection of rahm. what's been interesting, how hillary clinton has decided they know it's a problem. she didn't throw him under the bus. she is not -- he has kept his headway underground. it seems they accept it. they don't want to exacerbate it. >> that's exactly right. a quiet, quiet noncommittal sort of silent awkward date sort of situation for much of the campaign. bill clinton was here today, you know, talking about a responsibility candidate. obviously, hillary clinton is huge support here in a place like cook county. she is probably still the favorite. but they have just decided to basically kind of leave well enough alone. >> how green is that river? >> it's pretty green.
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>> matthews wanted to know, too. >> all right. saint paddy's day early on the eyes on march. in a few minutes, as results come in, both states are fascinating. we'll be back with one more preview of the anchor polls before the big show. stay tuned.
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we should call this november
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tuesday. right, because just like in november, we care about two states. florida and ohio. what do we care about tonight. florida and ohio. stay with us all night. five states, five primaries, on both sides. we're all here. we'll see you in a few. come and join us, we welcome you. >> will it be another night of surprises for the democrats? >> what we saw in michigan, we're going to see in florida. >> it's


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