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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  March 15, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm PDT

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tuesday. right, because just like in november, we care about two states. florida and ohio. what do we care about tonight. florida and ohio. stay with us all night. five states, five primaries, on both sides. we're all here. we'll see you in a few. come and join us, we welcome you. >> will it be another night of surprises for the democrats? >> what we saw in michigan, we're going to see in florida. >> it's make-or-break.
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tuesday. >> i'm so worried about what could happen if we don't elect a president who can represent all of america. good evening and here we go again. i know we have declared previous tuesdays super, but it may turn out that this one is indeed the most consequential of all. put another way, political ar keyologist, we just don't know what they'll find. >> chuck todd calling it separation tuesdays. good words that start with s. honestly, the fact that it is this contested, so much unknown, this far into the primary season, it's putting some people into a stupor for this tuesday, because it feels like too much information. i think we're going to get a little bit of clarity by the end of tonight. poll closings at 7:30, and then
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8:00, eastern time closings. and then we're going to know a little bit more on the democratic side as to whether or not that michigan result last week by bernie sanders was a fluke or whether or not bernie sanders will show midwest strength. if so, that means the democratic contest is going to go on for a very long time. on the republican side tonight, it may be the end of the road for one if not two candidates, depending on what happens in ohio and florida. everybody is obviously looking to see whether or not the full blast force of the anti-trump movement inside the republican party will actually have some effect tonight, and i think that's the top line result everybody is looking for. but whither john kasich, whither marco rubio, it's going to be interesting. >> to quote the "washington post," are we looking at goodbye rubio tuesday, to rachel's point. to whether this is separation tuesday or clarity tuesday, we shall see. our team is in place to cover it all tonight. chief among them, in the field, in the great city of cleveland, ohio, mr. chris matthews.
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chris, your thoughts? >> well, guys, all fascinating me since i was a kid. i want to say about trump and hillary tonight. donald trump has a chance tonight to knockout maybe two candidates, certainly the one in florida, rubio, and maybe kasich in ohio. if he gets a double knockout, he is in great shape. he further has the chance for a shut out making sure cruz wins nothing tonight. hillary clinton looks like she could win florida, but from there on out, it's tough. she could win north carolina, more likely, but when she is facing three michigans tonight, as rachel said, she is really facing three michigans. missouri, historically an antitrade state, voting for stephenson over eisenhower, over the trade issue. of course, illinois, we have the rahm emanuel problem, in ohio, where she has a challenge from bernie sanders. it's a hell of a night, and hard to predict anything but a safe
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bet is florida, but outside of that, it's wide open. >> chris, thanks. let's stay in ohio, as we bring in the correspondents, tony in in struthers ohio, reporting there all day. hey, tony. >> reporter: hey, brian. struthers, ohio, suburb of yo g youngsto youngstown, double what it is, people have been streaming in all day. looking at a post work rush now. candidates from the kasich campaign, the trump campaign, the sanders campaign, clinton campaign, all through this area in the last week trying to get this important working class vote. what's important about ohio, tracking all day this location, you could pick any ballot. it doesn't matter what you came in as. republican or democratic, you can take any ballots. we've been looking at cross over voters. any city of struthers, 93% of the people, if they were
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affiliated with the democratic party, when you come over here, you would only expect 7% republican, the data, 4:00, all day long, the rate has been six times what you would expect. instead of 7%, 44% of the voters who come through the doors have voted on the gop ticket. it's unclear who that helps, but a major change. we checked in with dan at ohio state university, an election expert, he said it's huge. i've never heard of anything like it. we checked in with the secretary of state's office in ohio. they said it's not only in this county, multiple counties have seen crossover votes in large numbers to the gop ticket, brian. >> it would indicate a dynamic foot tonight in ohio, and perhaps in other states. we'll see. tony, thanks to native ohioan, chris jansing, highland heights, ohio. hi, chris. >> suburban cleveland similar. they're getting more people than
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they expected after the day of pretty much being on par. they are way beyond the numbers they expected. all the voting booths are full. but the crossover vote is the story here. normally they would get 2-1 republicans, it's now going 3-1. almost 75% of the people here are voting republican. a lot of crossover democrats. the question is, who are they voting for? this is only anecdotal, but every person we talked to was a protest voter against donald trump, and was voting for john kasich. one woman told me her family of lifelong democrats had a family meeting and decided to all come in and vote for john kasich. what does that mean for the big county? what's the bigger picture? well, we called a county official, which includes cleveland, they're telling us they have numbers for early voting, but there, 15% of democrats are crossing over and voting republican, compare that to 1.6 republicans, crossing
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over and voting democratic. one person, who a republican party official, looked at those numbers and told me he found them absolutely stunning. one final note. a place where there a long tradition still of unions, ethnic people whose entire life they've spent as democrats, it's kind of in their blood, so it's a very difficult thing for them to do, because it means when they cross over, for the next four years, they'll be listed as a republican. some people told me they thought about it and decided to cross over any way, brian. >> wow. this is a strange and interesting thing going on in ohio tonight. it remains to be seen what the scale of this is, but what she's describing and what tony is describing, that's not just chaos, it's chaos at two different levels. we don't know if they're crossing over because of what donald trump says he is doing to the electorate, which is bringing new people who want to vote for him, or as chris was describing, people who are crossing into the republican primary, not because they're
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republicans, but because they want to stop them from picking donald trump and voting for john kasich. and regardless of whether those people are going for trump or kasich, what does that do to the democratic race, people who are otherwise, or who are otherwise democrats, otherwise sympathetic to the democratic party and members of the democratic party, deciding not to cast that vote today for either sanders or clinton, so they can weigh in on the other contest instead. i mean, how is that going to work out? >> that's the thing, ricochet effect. steve kornacki is going to talk to us about the board. >> we can show you the early exit polls, the question of how many democrats, how many independents are coming into the republican primary. so what we're seeing is a comparison, compared to 2008, it was a similar situation in ohio. they had a choice, big democratic primary going on, hillary clinton, barack obama, you had a big republican primary going on, what you saw back then was an electorate that was 80% republicans. they called themselves
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republicans. 17% in the rhyprimary were independents. we're seeing a lot more independents. number has jumped from 17 to 28. the number of democrats, more than doubling from 3 to 7. that combined is 35% we're seeing in this exit poll. 35% more than a third of the republican primary electorate in ohio are democrats or independents. that's a significant change from 2008. we can show you the flip side of this quickly. on the democratic side, in 2008, it was 31% independent or republican, in the democratic primary tonight, that number down a little bit, 25 -- 27%. you see far fewer republicans crossing over to take part of the democratic race tonight. >> let's keep our eye on the dynamic all evening long. andrea mitchell at the clinton campaign. to rachel's point, one of those that's going to be feeling the ricochet effect from this.
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>> absolutely. first we were told we were going to be in ohio tonight. then they said not so fast, we'll be in chicago. then it was north carolina. we're in florida. that's because she is confident, they are confident they're going to win florida. that's from all of the data that they've seen. and they are so nervous about all of the things you've been discussing, especially in ohio, but also in her native illinois. as you remember, she grew up in illinois and even a gold water girl in illinois in high school, from a very conservative republican father. gradually, she changed her leanings, and now, she is facing the possibility of a closely fought race with bernie sanders in illinois, because her base in chicago, the african-american community, is badly torn up over rahm emanuel, the laquan mcdonald shooting, against this unpopular mayor who has endorsed hillary clinton, worked for bill clinton. all that said, i caught up with hillary clinton today and asked her about the possibility she could lose her home state
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tonight. >> why is bernie sanders doing that well against you in illinois? >> look, we are having a great contest in all of these states, and i'm very pleased that so many people are engaged in our side of the political equation. contrary to what you're seeing with the republicans, we're actually running a campaign on issues, not insults. we have a lot of the same goals. i think i have a better approach to actually realizing affordable college, paying down student debt. all the other issues that we're talking about. and i'm pleased that as we stand here right now, i have a considerable lead in delegates and i've gotten more votes, including donald trump by a big margin. >> won't it hurt your momentum if you lose your home state to bernie sanders? >> i don't -- look, this is about getting delegates and what we're doing is amassing enough delegates to win the nomination. and i think we'll have a very good night getting delegates
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tonight. >> so the focus on delegates is because they were so shocked by what happened in michigan, and there a possibility she could face a similar upset in missouri, where we don't have good data, in ohio and illinois. that's what they're facing. a democratic front-runner could be in trouble in the broad rust belt and midwest, and she is going to focus on the delegate lead, because she'll come out of this tonight with a delegate lead. she's that far ahead. she has the possibility of losing momentum and if bernie sanders getting a lot of money out of what comes tonight, depenlding d depending on what the voters does. >> andrea mitchell, and all of these election nights have had their own plot line. the establishment, predicting class has gotten it wrong all year. if you stayed away, you knew it was going to happen, you may be wrong. >> the pollsters too. we go tonight with that result in michigan that was one of the great polling upsets of all time. we got a lot of polling in florida and ohio tonight.
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we don't have very much in illinois, in missouri and in north carolina. which makes it more suspenseful. but also, it means that we need to turn to more of the experts. hello, chuck todd, moderator of "meet the press." is this an anecdotal story. >> it could be. it looks, by it looks like virginia. what did we see in virginia. it was one of those where there was a whole bunch of independents to stop trump. that was marco rubio's best state t was the state that trump was the most precarious of any of the other southern states he has so h so far. that's what struck me of looking at the independents to democratic. it looks more like virginia. that tells me even though you would say independents have been helping trump, in this case, this feels like it's an anti-trump. >> it might mean worst news for trump in ohio. is it -- any way to tell if it's going to have any sort of effect
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on the democratic race to extract that many? >> there is anecdotal evidence in michigan for instance, a phenomenon nom, was out of them. so, but look, i think that's -- i think that stuff ends up being more of a wash. >> yeah. >> i want to bring up one other point tonight. look at our win states maps by the way when we show them. donald trump and hillary clinton are basically winning these -- winning their nominations right now the same way. it's the south. and right now, the only two southern states, the only two confederate states, they haven't voted yet, north carolina and florida, and they're both favored. and in fact, the two states, expectation they do the best in tonight. it is amazing here, basically the trump's wall of victories is the south, and if he plugs in north carolina and florida, look at that. every single -- look at the hillary map.
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same thing. where they both struggle, and where you have to worry about both of them in a general election, same thing, she even has texas in there, the only reason trump doesn't have texas is because of cruz. you have to say, though, where they've shown weakness, this is troubling for both of them. industrial midwest. where you don't see them winning. so it is fascinating how the south may power both trump and hillary to their nomination. >> to their nominations and then we have no idea if they end up being the nominees in those states where both of them struggle. >> you can travel no more than 30 feet from this desk tonight. >> all right, back and forth. it will be a fun night. >> if you feel a little shock if you go to for, that's us. >> that's what i hear. we have five states. >> yeah. >> we could have, sorry, if you have plans before midnight. >> we've got poll closings at 7 and 8:00 eastern. >> i have a feeling we're going to have at least that michigan feel, a state or two we're bugging kornacki, go to that
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county. i'm not going to say which county. >> that's my favorite, county kornacki. >> more fun than exit poll kornacki. >> to be honest, our first of many breaks comes right now. our live coverage continues, just getting started, right after this.
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to report from there jacob. >> reporter: normally you would think on a biggy electi electio. one of the people making phone calls, like everyone out here, marco rubio's wife herself, jeanette. i want to show you something over here. absolutely critical for these guys, excuse me, sir, to target, me doing my best kornacki impression, but these are precincts nevertheless. they need south miami, corral gables, sweet water, south dale and west miami. we are out at these polling places, and they are not looking particularly crowded out here. these are the largely cuban american communities, and marco rubio, if he wants to do well, hail mary pass, has to do well in those neighborhoods. it's not looking great so far. >> jacob at rubio headquarters in florida, thank you. i want to bring in robert costa,
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doing reporting on the john kasich side. john kasich, the governor of ohio, he has said if he doesn't win ohio, he'll get out of the race. he also has said he is going to win ohio. we'll see tonight whether that confidence is well placed. robert, what are you hearing from the kasich campaign and the other campaigns in terms of confidence? >> talking to the kasich campaign in ohio, they have a strong grassroots operation going on for months, turnout is exceptionally high. they also believe they're benefitting from crossover democratic votes, democratic whose have gotten to know kasich in ohio and are weary of a trump nomination. in florida, i hear turnout, talking to many republicans in the state this morning, is high, but that is not necessarily good for marco rubio. and many people in his orbit at this hour are saying he may get out of the race if it looks like he'll lose the state, which seems likely what we're hearing on the ground. >> we've been hearing overtly that they're planning on
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campaigning in utah tomorrow, that no matter what happens tonight, marco rubio says that he wasn't just banking on one state. he is going to stay in the race. are you saying that we should see that overt claim from the campaign and the candidate himself as basically a little bit of a head fake, something we should question? >> i think at this point, you can take rubio at his word, that if the margin is close, he will he likely stay in the race. people close to rubio, talking to them, the margin may not be favorable for the senator. it may be something like 40/20, 40/28, with trump winning the state. they think it will be difficult for him to go on. they say privately, he has acknowledged much of that. >> robert costa with the "washington post." thank you very much. i know we'll be checking back in with you later. there is this interesting dynamic between the two candidates kind of on the bubble tonight. marco rubio and john kasich. if marco rubio loses florida,
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john kasich wins ohio, we expect marco rubio will drop out and kasich will stay in. winner take all ohio, will probably have less at the end of the night tonight, but pressure for rubio to quit and not on kasich to quit. the movement matter as much as the standings at this point in a race like this. >> just the way the system works. given the burn rate of jet fuel and motel rooms, advance, security, advertising, it gets tough. you can see on the bottom of the screen, just over an hour away. we'll fit another break in here, just starting to get interesting. please come back with us.
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we are back. 6:27 eastern time, naturally, a lot of eyes on donald trump tonight. his successes thus far and his challenges tonight. speaking of which, let's check in with our correspondent, covering the traveling trump campaign, katy tur inside mar-a-lago in the ballroom where the chairs are gold and the crowd has yet to be let in. katy. oh, except for the audio. >> we should have known that might happen when we saw hands
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coming in, putting her microphone as you were going to her. >> that was your first sign. >> my first sign. >> she says some really good things, too. which is a crime of this situation. >> i bet -- do we have the hands found a switch yet? hey. >> katy is here. >> i hear ambient noise. luckily, though, we're going to talk about donald trump. we have another source of data on the subject. somebody who is not traveling with the trump campaign but looking at what a good night for donald trump would look like tonight. steve kornacki is looking at the sort of best case scenario for donald trump tonight. whether there is a chance that he can sort of lockup the nomination tonight. >> yeah, i mean, sort of two questions here. you look at this in terms of can he win florida and knock marco rubio out. i think a lot of people look at that and says if he does that obviously a good night for him, difficult to stop. what that would mean if he pulled it off, did well in the other states, you look at where
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the delegates are right now. you need 1,237 now. if he did well elsewhere, he'll be sitting at 750 delegates. ted cruz will be 300 behind him. that would be a big lead for donald trump going forward. the more interesting question i think is to play this out, how vital is winning ohio tonight to donald trump winning that first ballot majority and avoiding the contesting convention that so many are pinning their hoping on. let's say he wins florida, he loses ohio, he does okay elsewhere. where will he be sitting at the end of the night. he'll be sitting at 640 delegates. what does it mean? here is the key. this is what happens. if he is sitting at 640 delegates after tonight, and you need 1,237 to win, is there enough here, enough delegates up for grabs to get him to a first ballot majority. keet the key, winner take or primaries. two of them tonight, we see a
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bunch of them going forward. if trump comes out of here with an okay night, he wins florida, loses ohio, look at what he has to look forward to. the northeast, do well, get a budge of delegates here, do well in arizona. we played it out. let's see if donald trump doesn't get 50% in a single state, going forward. let's say ted cruz wins a bunch of states. let's say he wins all of these places, maybe he wins indiana. where does it leave donald trump. does he hit the magic number. we've played it out conservatively. we got him to 1,190. just short. 40 short of the magic number. what does that tell you? it tells you if donald trump wins ohio tonight, he is in great shape to get the nomination. if he loses it, i would say it's 50/50 he's going to be able to get a first ballot majority going forward. >> that would mean all eyes politically on cleveland, ohio, where chris matthews is standing by. chris. >> thank you. brian, i'm with the best guy to
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talk to now, matt, with the republican party of ohio. you guys have endorsed the party has endorsed kasich. >> of course, a unique experience, unique opportunity to have or governor running and to have ohio matter this much. we always matter in november. >> i know you do. >> but this much in the primary process. >> do you think he'll go on the ticket. >> he wille ae go on the ticke >> he is going to be on nominee. >> tonight's news. who is crossing over to your party? independents, democratic registered democrats and even have to declare themselves republicans for four years to do it. so some real hard and fast democrats don't like doing it. what is causing that. >> we're sitting in a place in cleveland, ohio, that barack obama won by 260,000 votes in 2012, john kasich carried this county by 35 votes two years later. he had won in the most democratic parts of the state. so democrats obviously have --
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they understand his cross over appeal and many of them are crossing over to vote in the republican primary to vote for him. >> how many are crossing over because they're working class guys and like trump. >> i think we see that dynamic too, and we're wear that's part of the dynamic out there today. we're taking nothing for granted. when it's all said and done, john kasich will carry ohio tonight. >> trade, you have two senators in this state, voted for tp. sports trade, sharon brown on the left, democratic, very much antitrade. what's the state? is it antitrade or pro trade. >> pro trade. >> it is? >> why is sharon brown running on the other side of that issue? >> sharon brown is a political phenomenon on to himself. we're a pro trade state. >> i look at a lot of your state
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g delegates, they seem negative on trade, like bernie sanders is. why? i didn't see votes there obviously. >> you're seeing a lot of that sentiment out there right now that it's kind of one of the problems that we're having with the economy. we've got 415,000 new jobs in this state. we're bringing back jobs from china. he was down in dayton, we've got one guy in the race that's been talking about bringing jobs back to china. one guy has done it. we need those opportunities to open the markets and have those jobs come to america. >> let's look positively for your candidate, john kasich. i've always liked him personally. if he wins here tonight, where is the design to go from here to the convention here in cleveland this summer? how does he get to that from here? >> well, if nobody has 1,237 delegate, that will be nobody's fault but the candidate who fails to get there. >> how does trump -- >> we have a process that is set
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out. i'm not convinced that john kasich can't get there with 1,237 delegates. it starts tonight with a big win in ohio. >> is that favorite talking. >> no, we're seeing the -- >> you're not spielg ymiling ye you will. >> give me one word to describe kasich. >> reformer. >> reformer. >> yeah, outsider. >> outsider. >> okay, we're here with the co cool-aid. >> watch the over indulging there. our thanks to the chairman. let's go back to mar-a-lago, last we knew, katy tur was talking. we couldn't hear her. >> reporter: most people like that when they can't hear me. that's a joke. bad joke. this is a much bigger ballroom
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than the last time we were here. to makeup for the fact that it was cramped that day, they're expecting more of their supporters and friends, even more press here if you can believe it. they're hopeful and well so about florida. they believe they're going to win here. the question is not whether donald trump is going to win. it's how much is going to win by. he needs to win here, especially if he loses in ohio, because if he loses both states, then he has a really difficult task to get to 1,237 delegates and make it a shoo-in for the convention. if he wins here, he only needs 59% of the delegates going forward, so it makes it a little easier. but certainly, a lot of big turnout here in florida. a lot of big turnout in ohio. clear it will help him here. not so clear it will help him in ohio. the campaign is feeling good about their pros secpects. >> reporting live from florida.
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katy, thanks. a break for our coverage, when we come back, we're going to look at the week the trump campaign has had. it's generated a lot of concern. it's generated a lot of conversation. we are 54 minutes away from the first closing polls tonight. we'll be right back.
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we are back. this is the week that was for the trump campaign. among other things, donald trump was forced to confront not only protesters at events, but the charge that his events and his rhetoric were inciting violence. we have a brief look back at some of it. >> what is more fun than a trump rally, right? knock the crap out of him, seriously. get him out. try not to hurt him. if you do, i'll defend you in
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court. don't worry about it. >> yes, he deserved it. the next time we see him, we might have it to kill him. >> donald trump once again greeted by protesters. >> these people are bringing us down. >> he just arrived in chicago and after meeting with law enforcement has determined that tonight's rally will be postponed. >> two people told me that said thin creas this increases the vote for trump. >> thuggery stuff going on with the punk asses. >> do you take any responsibility for creating this atmosphere. >> i don't accept responsibility. i do not condone violence. >> if donald trump is the nominee, he is a disaster. >> we're in disarray. >> i still, at this moment, continue to intend to support the republican nominee. but it's getting harder everyday. >> we're going to take back our country. we're going to take back our
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country. we're going to bring it back. >> think of it this way, that's how we started this week. here we are at tuesday, that is kind of the state of play, in many ways, in the gop campaign. should we bring in our houseguests. >> let's bring in the houseguests. >> from the "washington post," nicole wallace, mccain campaign. >> good old days. >> yeah. all right, we'll start with you. >> oh, thanks. >> how is it going these days? >> well, it's interesting that we begin the night talking about florida, right? so this was rubio's last day on the polls, we don't have any results yet, but they showed trump having a double digit lead there. the story is the story of the campaign. rubio sounds like the one having the rationale response to the violence, right, he talks about how it's getting harder everyday. you see people nodding their head. not the trump supporters. the trump supporters, and i
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talked to some folks who advise trump and they felt like friday night, by getting on the phone, he spent 20 minutes on the phone during msnb's live coverage, by spending an hour on the phone, articulating what he had done, his supporters found him responsible in the moment. so it just, it just, the last week and what we're going to see tonight, i think it just shows this dramatic fracture. two weeks ago tonight, we taked about how the republican party is broken. it is broken, and it is now experiencing this campaign from, you know, marches and venus if you will. >> i was watching you and from the aerial pictures, it looked like one of those nights of violence in the united states. >> we should be clear. it wasn't 1968, chicago. nobody was killed. there were some injuries, including some chicago police officers that were injured, and that is lamentable and should never happen. but it was not wide scale injuries.
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it was not violence that spread much further than this. i mean, this is shocking enough. but these are closeup images of people fight anything small numbers. >> as you were careful to point out. >> yeah, but still, the thing that remains remarkable about this is not that very, very head up groups of mostly young people with very strong passions on both sides of an issue left to stew alongside one another in a room having disappointment it has been called off, some of them turned to fistfights. what remains remarkable here, is that the candidate himself has marketed to his audience that you might see violence and disruption at his events, that he has under written essentially the prospect of criminal violence by his supporters when he says i'll pay your legal fees. it's trump's reaction to protests. all experience protesters and hecklers, and even long-term. we saw immigration protest disrupt president obama and
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hillary clinton and all the democrats over a long period of time. it never turned into a marketed show that went alongside with what you might get when you go to see the candidate the way it has with mr. trump. that's what is different about him. >> does it hurt him tonight in late deciders, are we ever going to see if the numbers move? >> late deciders, that's where trump seems to be at his weakest in general. all primary season. so i'm sure there are people who horrified at what was going on. >> that's why they got on -- that's why he got on the phone. >> but a lot of trump voters have made up their minds. this decided months ago, weeks ago, they will not be shaken, and as nicole said, they are reenforced in some ways. look at all these people who came out, you know, to disrupt, to deny donald trump his first amendment rights. i mean -- >> that's right, but -- >> the demonstrations, i've
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heard a lot of that from trump supporters. you know, one reason why trump is getting, let's face it, a scale of protests that other candidates aren't getting, is because of what he says. because he says mexican immigrants are rapists, and because he says muslims should be banned from entering the country. he said we should reinstitute tortu torture. >> once he gets protesters, he treats them differently. >> yes, he does. >> he responds to them differently. >> to show his alpha maleness, get them out of here, that's sort of a set piece, where they get up and trump makes a big show. >> people bring signs to the rallies now that say get him out. people bring signs. it's part of the show. >> right. so two or three people didn't show up to protest, trump would have to hire them at this point. >> he actually said are there no
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disruptions, somebody stand up. i look forward to it now. i mean, he is dependant on it now as part of his character. that is what is unique. >> just about 45 minutes until we get our first poll closings of the evening. a break will continue in a moment, and we'll go to a polling place in the state of illinois when we come back.
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we are back, and we're looking for our first poll closing, 40 minutes from now. that's the board tonight. that is the delegate board in toto. let's begin in the land of lincoln. kate snow standing by. kate. >> reporter: hi, brian. so we're at one of the biggest, the biggest polling place in springfield, illinois. i've got to tell you, you're coming to us right at the right time. this precinct behind me, there are six that vote here, this one completely ran out of ballots. they don't have ballots to hand to people any more. they're sending people away, taking people's phone numbers. they're not quite sure how to handle it. this has been going on all afternoon here. such heavy turnout, they've been having to call for replenishm t
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replenishmen replenishments. that precinct has run out. this one yelled out, we've got two more democratic ballots and we'll be out. what does it mean? it could mean an hour and ten minutes from 2340now, they may be able to close. they're asking what should they do. they're talking about judges whether they could get an order to keep the place open longer, which could affect you in new york, as you're watching for the runs from illinois. and just to remind people, this is much more competitive in illinois than people had really expected. we had ted cruz in town last night here in springfield making a final pitch to voters, a lot of trump supporters i've talked today. definitely a heavily republican county, and of those republicans, a lot of them seem to be trump supporters. ted cruz made a play here, and on the democratic side, brian, you've got hillary clinton, who was here yesterday. and bernie sanders, who has been investing a lot in the state of illinois and in chicago just
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last night. >> we lost kate snow's signal right there at the end. >> she turned into a robot there at the end. >> i hate when that happens. it's never good to run out of anything when you're a business, but it has to be good for the business of democracy, if they're running out of ballots of all things. let's go to a hotly come tested state, cal perry, missouri, st. louis, hey, cal. >> reporter: hey, brian. this is the fourth ward in the city of st. louis. these machines here, these are the electronic machines, there have been sporadic problems. the state's office says it is not a problem, it hasn't affected the voting. i'll be honest with you, here in this neighborhood, african-americans, a lot of suspicion about the machines. some people coming in here, pulling the republican ballot. i spoke to some folks outside, missouri state law says we can't speak to people in here, we have to do it outside. they said it's strategy.
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do you want to expand on that strategy, they said no, we'll leave it as it's a bit of strategy. i'm interested to see how many republican votes not for trump. >> fascinating. >> a lot of that going on. documentation from that in ohio, now also in missouri. again, it's an interesting thing. it's sort of an interesting like window into the mind of the democratic voter, that you would go to the polls not to cast a vote but to afflict the other side somehow. we don't know what that will be. they may want the republican party to pick donald trump because they think he would be a bad general election, they may not want him, because they're scared of him. we're complex beings, even on nights like this. steve kornacki looking at the african-american vote, and a number of the states, obviously the split between sanders and clinton on the black vote has been one of the most determinative things we've seen in the prime re. >> the racial divide has been stark on the democratic side. when bernie sanders got the
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upset win in michigan, it was note worthy, because not only the biggest state he has won, but the modiverse won. if it had been 22, 23% black, it was 21%. he eeked out a win. what are we looking at? ohio, you can see the number right you know, it can change, but right now, 19% black. so this is why one of the reasons why people were looking at ohio and saying this could be fertile ground for him to replicate what he did in michigan, similar to michigan. 19% black, missouri, another state people were looking at coming in tonight. one poll that showed it could be fertile ground for bernie sanders. under that 21% number we saw in michigan. things start to change. north carolina, look at this. nearly 30% black in the exit poll and by the way, that number may go up. a key there in north carolina is
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the early voting. last time they had a competitive democratic primary there, it was 35 me 35%. it might go up. north carolina has not looked as good for bernie sanders. in illinois, 27% black electorate. a close race in illinois, that has been surprising people, because of this. that number seems you would say on paper would be too high for him to be doing well. the polls coming into illinois seeing something different. that's something to keep an eye on. florida, you can see here, 27% black, 20% hispanic, bernie sanders not done well with latino voters well. >> steve kornacki, thank you. >> thank you, steve. another break for us, we're at 6:55. we're going to be back for the top of the hour. 7:00 eastern and then scant 30 minutes from there. the first poll closings of the evening.
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we are back. 7:00 eastern time, and how is this for topics. a bit of housekeeping and a bit of math. the first two closings are at 7:30. we got ohio and north carolina closing at 7:30. i've got to do this. >> you don't have to call it
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housekeeping. >> it's like the accountants. i've got to talk about them. ohio and north carolina, closing. a lot of florida is closing in five seconds. and so we've seen states before that have stradled time zones, i'm trying to make it sexier. >> that was a good one. >> you may see some raw vote on the screen from florida. we are not recognizing. >> naked vote. >> the florida poll closing until an hour from now at 8:00 eastern. wow. when we will also have illinois and missouri, but everything that's going to happen, at least all of the exciting poll closings, are going to happen between now and an hour from now. >> that's right. we obviously don't know what's going to happen until it happens. we're led to believe by the polling, the data we've seen, we may have bunch of close races tonight. poll closing perhaps well

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