tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC March 15, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm PDT
this is the serious, this business end of this tuesday we have been talking about for some time. so we'll show you the three states where we are covering the poll closing in five seconds. florida, illinois, and missouri. it's now 8:00 p.m. on the east coast. and we begin with an out and out victory projection in florida. donald trump will have cruz to what we -- this is another call, the projected winner, hillary clinton in the florida primary. in illinois, on the gop side, too early to call. in illinois, for the democrats. note the distinction. too close to call in the race there. missouri, republicans, too close
to call between trump and cruz. at this hour, that just got updated, it remains the same. and for the democratic primary in the state of missouri, it is too early to call between clinton and sanders. that's the big board, now 8:01 eastern time. >> a significant win for hillary clinton in florida and a significant win for donald trump in florida. a significant win for donald trump means a very, very, very significant loss for marco rubio in his home state of florida and he now becomes the next big shoe about the drop. >> chris matthews is in ohio, that's the state getting so much attention tonight. we have yet to call or project a winner there, dhas where the hopes and dreams of john kasich
are resting. it would actually end some of this that's going on in this country, it might be a clinton ok- kasich ticket, which is surprising. it won't be donald trump for a general election. if hillary clinton were smart, she would make herself -- it's so as you guys have been saying all night. cruz is the one, cruz is much
stronger than kasich, even after tonight, especially if he wins missouri and picks up that win and does well in north carolina, he's still got the delegate advantage. i think kasich is something that a lot of independents are looking at, something they hope they get a chance to vote for in the general election. it may be something for editorial writers tonight. some this summer in cleveland, when we're back here again with the republican convention, but i think there's a statement made by the -- all tonight, and that passion is growing, and perhaps the hopes, it won't just be the bernie fever or donald trump fever, but the anti-donald trump atmosphere tonight. >> easier said than done. let's go to florida and speaking very -- when we call a state,
when we project a winner, at poll close, that is an overwhelming bit of information that our election unit has decided they can safely go with, human intelligence, raw vote, al gore rhythms, you name it. the home state candidate, senator marco rubio, what do you know about the state of his campaign. >> it's not evening inside the arena, this is an atrium outside of the arena, the rubio campaign coming off so strong, with so
much optimism, coming out of iowa, they spun a third place finish into a victory, and wanted to build some momentum after that, then came that stunning debate for marco rubio, since then they have tried to regain that momentum, and it just hasn't happened. they have spent the last several days, crisscrossing florida, his home state, essentially losing the state by double digits, he chose to run against his mentor, jeb bush. this was a situation where they felt the attack ads, $50 million in attack ads against marco rubio, they don't feel that his decision to attack donald trump played a role in this. right now they're expecting marco rubio to come to this stage and address his supporters, the big question now is will he suspend his campaign.
it's hard to imagine after this stinging defeat, how he could go on, a lot of disappointment here at the rubio watch party. >> what remains at this hour, of the rubio campaign. >> we're watching those last returns come in in florida. marco rubio is behind by 17 points at this point. in terms of understanding that margin, understanding what went so wrong for him in this home state. let's turn to steve. he's got a little bit of insight into the florida numbers. >> we always talk about those examples where the polls were wrong. here's one where the polls were right, this looked like a trump landslide, that's what we're basically seeing, there are two core groups here, these are voters under 30, you see cruz did win, almost a point less
than trump. 9% of the electorate, among the 91% of republicans who are over 30, a 20 point win for donald trump, another core group that marco rubio did very well with. not a surprise here, cuban voters, there's one county where rubio seems to be beating donald trump. it's where you've got a heavy cuban population, but cubans making up less than 9% of the republican electorate tonight. look at in, this puts it in pretty stark terms. moderate, donald trump, donald trump, donald trump in landslides. guys. >> this is a moment of truth for the marco rubio campaign, it is also maybe a derminitive moment for the donald trump campaign. i would be happy to hear your take on this, nicole, because i feel like the trump campaign has to make decisions on whether or not they have to carry
themselves differently. >> since we have been sitting here, donald trump's been very active on twitter. >> stunned. >> he's been assailing fox news, personally attacking megin kelley and -- so we have our answer to that. >> so the answer is no. >> nothing different. >> ted cruz's argument in the closing days has been about donald trump's temperament. marco rubio's team feels like his best moment was a 15-minute press conference on sunday. donald trump's temperament was on full display. their events, their paid media and their superpacs, to an attack on hillary clinton. the republicans simply took too
long to figure out how to peel voters off. in the cruz victories, you hear late deciders have real squirmish feelings about donald trump. but the rubio campaign got their message together very, very late, he ended with sort of all of his dignity in tact. i think he talked about his regrets. >> he pees his pants thing? >> he proved the point that the media did not cover him the way they did after that moment until that moment. >> how do you go there and then walk away from it. >> the republican standard bearer ask winning states by 20 points by living there. by living there. >> the republicans are still chatting about and can ted cruz
be the guy? there is no other guy. there's nobody else close. it's either ted cruz or it's nobody. >> there's been more money spent in this campaign against marco rubio by republicans attacking marco rubio than attacking trump. in florida it was 18-1 against trump. in the last ten days, that's it. but let me bring up another point that i think has been forgotten in florida. they're trying to explain the ease with which trump did this. this is not the first time that there was a candidate that the establishment said was unelectable, the state didn't fall into the ocean, so republican voters sit there and say, we were told this guy was terrible. the establishment said do whatever it takes, jeb bush endorsed against him, i remember that in the primary. everybody came out for bill mccollum against rick scott. he struggled in two general elections, but he won them both.
the state is doing better on the economy. >> it didn't fall into the ocean. >> i have always thought that that was why they were conditioned to deal with trump. scott's been okay. he hasn't been a disaster. >> it's the closest thing to attest to a full force trump effort. $30 million over a ten day period is nothing to sneeze at. but still a considerable effort and had it shown that it took anything off trump. >> it didn't take anything. >> that's the thing. it's one thing for him to win, it would be another thing if they at least made it close. he beat marco rubio by -- what, where are we at now? 18 points.
>> this comes on the heels of mitt romney, the standard bearer of the republican party. the story of this cycle is the trump supporter even more than it's 2ru6r7 trump. the supporters that he has are having a conversation with him that we must be missing. >> let's go to the atrium down at there international. >> trump had a big, big victory in florida. no, no, no. guys, we live in a republic and our voters make these decisions and we respect that very much and it was a big win. and i want to begin by thanking all of you here today. and i want you to know that i am the beneficiary of the best group of supporters, the hardest working people that i have ever been associated with. not just here in florida, but around the country.
>> we love you marco! >> i love you too. i want you to know that you worked as hard, i want to talk to people in iowa and new hampshire and twashington, d.c. all over, we have a great team. and i'm so grateful for all the help that you guys have given us. i want you to know that there's nothing more you could have done. i want you to know that we worked as hard as we ever could. america is in the middle of a real political storm, a real tsunami and we should have seen this coming. look, people are angry and people are really frustrated. it really began in 2007, 2008, with this horrifying downturn -- don't worry, you won't get beat up at our event. people are very frustrated about
the direction of our country. [ chanting [ chanting ] thank you. people are frustrated. in 2007 and 2008, there was a horrible downturn in our economy. and these -- >> dealing with a heckler inside the room. we have to interrupt marco rubio's speech, and we'll go back, but we have a project shung in north carolina where we have now projected that when all the votes are counted, hillary clinton will pick up north carolina. 27% of the raw vote in. we'll talk about this in a moment. we'll go back inside the room marco rubio's speaking in miami. >> and they see that there's very lit gratitude for all the sacrifices america makes. people are tired of being told
by these self proclaimed elitist that they don't know what they're talking about and they need to listen to the so-called smart people. and i know all these issues firsthand. i have lived paycheck to paycheck. i grew up paycheck to paycheck. i know what it's like to have to figure out how to find the money to fix the air conditioner that broke last night. i know my parents struggled and i know millions of people are doing that. i know immigration in america is broken. and i know this better than anyone. my parents were immigrants, i grew up in a community of immigrants. i have battled my whole life against the so-called elites or people that said i needed to wait in line, that it wasn't our chance or it wasn't our time. be when i decided to run for president, i wanted to run a campaign that was real listic
about all of these challenges. i know with have a right to enforce our immigration laws, but we also have to have a realistic approach to fix it. i know we're living through this extraordinary economic transformation that is really disrupting people's lives. machines are replacing them, i know america can't solve all of the world's problems, but i also know that when america doesn't lead, it leaves behind a vacuum and that vacuum leads to chaos and most of all, i know firsthand that ours is a special nation because where you come from here, doesn't decide where you get to go. that's how a 44-year-old son of a bartender and a maid, that's how i decide, that in fact i too can run for president of the united states of america. so from a political standpoint,
from a political standpoint, the easiest thing to have done in this campaign is to jump on all those anxieties i just talked about, to make people angrier, make people more frustrated. but i chose a different route and i'm proud of that. that would have been, in a year like this, that would have been the easiest way to win, but that's not what's best for america, the politics of resentment against other people, will not just leave us a fractured party, they're going to belieleave us a fractured na. they have different political opinions, where we find ourselves at this point is not surprising, for the warning signs have been here for close to a decade. in 2010, the tea party wave carried me and others into office because not enough was happening and that tea party wave gave republicans a majority in the house.
but nothing changed. in 2014, that same tea party gave republicans a majority in the senate and still nothing changed and i blame some of that on the conservative movement, a movement that is supposed to be about our principles and our ideas, but i blame most of it on our political establishment. a political establishment that for far too long has looked down as conservatives, looked down at conservatives as simple minded people. looked down as conservatives as simply bomb throwers, a political establishment that for far too long has taken the votes of conservatives for granted and a political establishment that has confused cronyism for capitalism. i have endeavored to bridge this divide within our party and within our country because i know that after eight years of barack obama, this nation needs a vibrant and growing conservative movement and it needs a strong republican party.
to change the direction now of this country. or many of the things that are going wrong in america will become permanent and many of the things that will make us a special country are gone. america needs a vibrant conservative movement. but one that's built on principles and ideas, not on anger, not on preying on people's frustrations. a conservative movement, a conservative movement that believes in the principles of our constitution, that protects our rights and limits the power of government. a conservative movement committed to the cause of free interprize, the only economic model where everyone can climb without anyone falling. a conservative movement that believes in a strong national defense and a conservative movement that believes in the strong christian values that were the formation of our nation. but we also need a new political
establishment in our party. not one that looks down on people that live outside of the district of columbia, not one that tells young people that they need to wait their turn and wait in line and not one that's more interested in winning elections than it is in solving problems than standing by principles. and this is the campaign we have run, a campaign that is realistic about the challenges we face, but optimistic about the opportunities before us. a campaign that recognizes the difficulties that we face. but also one that believes that we truly are on the verge of a new american century, and a campaign to be president, a campaign to be a president that would love all of the american people. even the ones that don't love you back.
this is the right way forward for our country. but tonight while it's clear that while we are on the right side this year, we will not be on the winning side. i take great comfort in the ancient words that teaches us, that hume it is not human kind that directs our steps, but the lord that directs our steps. i still remain hopeful and optimistic about america. and how can i not? how can i not? my mother was one of seven girls born to a poor family, her father was disabled as a child. he struggled to provide for them his entire life. my mother told us a few years ago, she never went to bed hungry growing up, but she knows her parents did so they wouldn't have to. she came to this country in 1956
with little education, no money, no connections. my parents struggled their first years here, they were discouraged. they even thought about going back to cuba at one point, but they persevered. they never became rich. i didn't inherit any money from my parents. they never became famous. you never would have heard of them if i would never have run for office, and yet i consider my parents to be very successful people, because in this country working hard as a bartender and a maid, they owned a home and they retired with dignity. in this country, they live to see all four of their children live better off than themselves. and in this country, on this day, my mother who's now 85 years old, was able to cast a ballot for her son to be the president of the united states of america.
and so -- while it may not be god's plan that i be president in 2016, and though my campaign is suspended, we have come far -- all the reason more why we must do all we can to ensure that this nation remains a special place. i ask the american people, do not give into the fear, do not give into the frustration. we can disagree about public policy, we can disagree about it vibrantly, passionately, we are a hopeful people, and we have every right to be hopeful. for we in this nation are the
descendn desce descend ends of go getters. we are all descend dents of people who -- not knowing what awaited them. we are the descendants of slaves who overcame that horrible institution, we are the descendants of immigrants and exiles, who believed they were destined for more and there was only one place on earth where that was possible. this is who we are, and let us fight to ensure that this is who we remain. for if we lose that about our country, we'll still be rich and we'll still be powerful. but we will no longer be special. so i am grateful to all of you
who have worked so hard for me. i'm grateful to my wife who's been phenomenal in this campaign. i want you to know that i will continue every single day to search for ways for me to repay some of this extraordinary debta i owe in this great country and i owe a debt of gratitude to god and in whose hands all things lie, he has a plan for every one of our lives, everything that comes from god is good. got is perfect. god makes no mistakes. and he has things planned for all of us. and we await eagerly to see what lies ahead.
so i leave tonight with one final prayer. in the words of king david, yours oh, lord is the greatness and the power and the victory and the majesty and indeed everything that is in the heavens and the earth. yours is the dominion, oh, lord, and you exalt overall, whose riches and honor come from you and you rule over all and in your hand is power and might and it lies in your hand to make great and to strengthen everyone, may god strengthen our people, may got strengthen our nation, may got strengthen the conservative movement, may got strengthen the conservative party, may god strengthen our eventually nominee and may got always bless and strengthen this great nation, the united states of america. thank you and god bless you all. thank you very much. thank you very much. thank you. >> the republican field just got narrower, marco rubio just got out of this race.
marco rubio has yet to turn 45 years old. but there's why. 46% to 27%, marco rubio, florida senator has been defeated by part-time florida resident donald trump tonight. and here we go, down to three. >> and then there were three. that's exactly right. right now it's donald trump or it is ted cruz or john kasich. obviously ted cruz has had a lot more success than john kasich has, the idea of the republican party consolidating around ted cruz as their anti-donald trump campaign is hard to imagine, because of the career that ted cruz has had in national republican politics. but that's the choice that they have got, those are the only two men left standing besides donald trump himself. marco rubio saying today my campaign is suspended, also saying that it may not be god's
will that i will president in 2016 or maybe ever. it may be a signal that he's looking ahead to 2020 already, but he's out tonight. our next order of business will likely be hillary clinton appearing in the ball room where she is, between now and then, it gives us a great opportunity to welcome back our friend steve schmidt, like nicole wallace, the bush campaign, the mccain campaign, really curious to get your thoughts on what we just witnessed. >> you see one of the bright shining stars of the republican party getting out of the presidential race today. timing is an underappreciated virtue in american politics and this year, at this time, it wasn't marco rubio, but you see somebody not yet 45 years old as you point out, a brilliant orator, and i suspect his career
in the republican party is not yet done. >> he chose not to run for re-election for the senate seat north to go all in for this presidential race, it's hard to see if even his proprospects of running state wide in florida, governor or something might be hurt by this very bad loss. >> adam putnam, a former member of congress, a leading candidate in the republican party to be the next republican gubernatorial nominee in that state. but, look, who knows what's going to happen in american politics in the future. you think of richard nixon having lost the california republican race, they won't have me to kick around anymore, four years later won president of the united states. something extraordinary for republicans, especially in washington, d.c., the choice narrows between donald trump and ted cruz right now and the
notion that ted cruz would have ended this election season as the establishment candidate in the race, quite extraordinary. >> the word ceases to have any meaning if we put it on ted cruz. >> that's true. one other thing about the way rubio ended this tonight. he started making this temperament argument last night against donald trump. and he did have people that wanted him to stay in so he doesn't have to relinquish all of these delegates. but i know there were people talking all day today, that he would stay in, because he won a lot of delegates. >> 150 some-odd delegates. >> there was discussion all day about what he would stay in, remain a candidate to keep them. the campaign told me tonight that he will be part of the stop trump movement. i wonder that if that means an
endorsement, or if he'll campaign for one of his rivals. >> second ballot currency. so we'll see about that and maybe we'll talk to ben ginsburg before the night is over. quick reaction to our friend chris matthews in cleveland. chris? >> yeah, brian, i think one of the big factors that have been released after the -- is this, a very significant but a small number of people, they're called neo conservatives, they're sons of immigrants, or grandson of immigrants or granddaughters, they're very pro immigrant. they're not comfortable at all with the immigration policy. they have been backing rubio as kind of their hope, he's a hawk, he throws lines like references that part of greater israel, they sent all kinds of signals.
but rubio has been their skort of guy. a very interesting group of people. they're very interesting on the op-ed pages, i like a lot of them personally. people like bill kristol, charles krauthammer, very smart people who have very interesting views behind them. i don't think they're comfortable at all with trump, with this latest line about even handed position on the middle east. they don't like him, they don't think he's classy enough. they're not proud of his behavior. so they're going to look for a candidate now. that's fascinating, because that candidate could very well be hillary clinton. and that's where you're going to see a real sea change in the op-ed columns in our magazines, you're going to see people with a very strong even handedness about the republican and democratic party, who had been identified for decades now ever
since reagan with the republican party, this is a big development night, their vessel has sunk and that's very important because now they're going to be struggling in the water to carry that metaphor, looking for a ship to swim to. it's not going to be ted cruz. >> that cliff between intelligentsia and the american people as a whole. let's fit a break in here, and by doing so, let's look at the big board and the races we have called. we have projected so far tonight, the projected winner, hillary clinton in florida, a significant win tonight, as is donald trump's in florida. winner take all, 99 delegates and we are back after this.
here's the big board and the races we are waiting for. we have characterizations, but no projections, in north carolina, the gop primary too close to call. in ohio, the republican primary too early to call. in illinois, the gop primary, too early to call. in missouri, for the republicans, too close to call.
in ohio for the democrats, too early to call. in illinois, for the democrats, do close to call. and in missouri for the democrats, too early to call. and for those joining us in illinois, weather has just become a factor, they have a take cover warning in springfield, illinois because of a tornado warning, there is a huge line of rough weather coming through the state of illinois tonight. so far beyond its impact on this election, we hope everyone heeds the warnings and stays safe this evening. >> in terms of those close races and those too early to call close races, the ted cruz campaign has got to have its eyes fixed on missouri. too close to call in the missouri republican race, trump and krusz are in the lead. too close between them.
rubio and kasich lag behind. too close for donald trump to pull off a landslide victory. >> let's take a look at missouri and first before that, illinois, this is a little interesting what we're seeing in illinois right now, as you heard, too early to call, a lot of people might be surprised by that, you think of illinois, you think of chicago, the suburbs right outside of it. not necessarily ted cruz country, down state illinois, a lot of evangelicals, what you're seeing among white evangelicals in illinois, this is about 40% cruz in the electorate. where cruz has won this primary season, he's won evangelicals and he's won them by a decisive margin. this is not quite as decidive as -- leading evangelicals in illinois. the other thing to keep in mind in illinois, there is a chance here for cruz, if he cleans up
downstate, he can pick up a lot of delegates by congressional district, and even without winning the state could get a good delegate boost. among evangelicals, this is absolutely the cruz victory as we have seen. the saving grace right now for donald trump, what's keeping this thing basically dead even is white evangelicals making up 53% of the electorate, trump doing better with the nonevangelicals? keeping that thing close, ted cruz, with evangelicals in illinois, keeping the race closer that what we would have had. >> the states that are being contested tonight. we have got florida and ohio is winner take all with tons of delegates, but illinois and missouri is one state that you can only get all of the delegates if you get 50% of the
vote. if you don't get 50% of the vote, then if you can win a congressional district in illinois, you get three delegates, if you win a congressional district in illinois, you get five delegates. five delegates is a lot if you just pick up a congressional district. even if with don't get a big win by any individual candidate, if it is close and if the victory is geographically spread, a lot of delegates can be picked up. >> in ohio, the democratic primary, we project will be won by hillary clinton. that is a big zeal. 66%, 33% with 12% of the vote in. kristen welker traveling with the clinton campaign tonight in west palm. kristen? >> well, brian, this is huge
news for the clinton campaign, look, again, they were hoping to win florida and north carolina, feeling confident about those two states, this win in ohio is going to increase her delegate lead significantly. it could put this race out of reach for senator bernie sanders or at least take a very large step toward doing that, we are expecting secretary clinton to come to the podium to address her supporters any moment now. i anticipate that this crowd will erupt once they learn what you just announced there. but secretary clinton has been touting her record and her plan to enhance the manufacturing sector as a way to answer a lot of the criticism that she's been getting from senator sanders for supporting trade deals like nafta and that helped him to win michigan and the clinton campaign came into tonight so concerned about losing ohio for that very reason. so they were lowering
expectations as we headed into tonight. but you have to imagine, they are just erupting with excitement and celebration tonight, this is a huge, huge win for her. >> you would think they have a tv there. unbeknownst to that crowd, they are now victors in ohio. might be something to suggest at the next rally. thank you very much for that. >> i would just say, the ohio result is important for all the reasons that kristen just said, the other reason it's important is because bernie sanders said that he would win ohio and candidates set expectations for a reason. obviously the sanders campaign was very excited to pull off that historic upset of a win in michigan, they beat the predicted poll averages by more than 20 points, it was one of the biggest upsets against the polling in a very, very long m time. >> another big race is ohio on the republican side.
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board, and this is the night the clinton campaign is having, projected winner, florida. projected winner, ohio. projected winner, north carolina. to chris matthews in ohio we go. chris, your reaction to the victory they were able to put together tonight in ohio? >> i think it's going to be a big headline for hillary clinton's people tonight, i think it's the daily double winning those two, of course north carolina added to it. but florida and as we all know in ohio, had this iconic power, because tim russert calling those the key states in every election. for clinton to win, this might be the first time that bernie sanders has had to come out and -- it's an anti-trade state, i don't think they're going to get it tonight. and illinois is troubling. because it has something to do
the mayor out there. something to do with the unhappiness about black lives matter in that community, the african-american community and generally out there. i don't think it's a good state for hillary tonight. but it sure is going to increase her delegate lead against sanders. >> we are watching in those states that chris was just talking be there, missouri and illinois that are still outstanding on the democratic side, one of the things we're noticing as we're watching those results, see those numbers next to where it says too early to call, 2% in, the vote is coming in very, very slowly thus far, it may mean it's going to be a very late night, it may mean it's going to come in a rush pretty soon. but very, very slowly tonight. hillary clinton in ohio, she had a narrow lead in the polling heading into ohio which made a lot of people very unsteady about predicting anything in ohio given what happened last week in michigan, we now have a
little bit more insight into how hillary clinton put together that win in ohio. >> steve, i'm sorry, i got to cut you off before you begin, because we have the other critical call we were waiting for, ohio gop has gone to the governor of ohio, john kasich is on the board. >> his first win. >> his first state and it happens to be his state. but it's his. peter alexander at kasich headquarters tonight. where they were waiting for this good news. >> they're waiting for the governor to come out and enjoy this win. all 60 delegates go to governor kasich. i just got off the phone just a second ago with his top advisors who are watching this vote come in. he was already on the phone with other campaigns and past and
former candidates in this race as well as their donors, trying to carve out his path forward, the eyes of the kasich campaign, the win tonight has punched their tickets and their eyes right back here to cleveland for the convention in his home state this summer. so what do they do now? they tell me that they feel confidently they can pick up more delegates going forward in states like pennsylvania, where they'll be tomorrow. utah, new jersey, all to keep him viable, a very feasible alternative to donald trump when everything gets solved, in what they believe thereby a contested convention tonight. >> we promise you all of it. if we get competing candidates appearing live at the same time, like governor kasich and secretary clinton, we will tape delay one of them, but bring you all of it. that's why we're here, the excitement of an election night,
rachel, it strikes me that the person who could run a campaign here at the desk, mr. schmidt and ms. wallace, you know the derision is that john kasich is every democrat's favorite republican. if you were running the kasich campaign for president mr. schmidt, what would you do after tonight? >> when general sherman was asked to reflect on abraham lincoln's light after his assassination, he said that he possessed more of the qualities of goodness an greatness than any man he had ever known and the point is that john kasich has run a positive campaign. a very stark contrast to the other campaigns. now john kasich is down to the final three, could he be the character and temperament contrast to trump and could he carry that campaign now into the
northeast, into california and can he win some of those winner take all states? and so john kasich, as you look at this race right now, you look at the bush donors, you look at the rubio donors, you look at the angst in new york city among some of the superpac donors, you ski a run in the kasich campaign that will allow him to articulate a message that will be able to be heard. and if you give consideration to a republican convention where donald trump or ted cruz are not able to put it away in a first ballot, where john kasich is the -- then the delegates at that convention start to have difficult decisions to make. i think it's important to understand that when we talk about contested conventions, the two political parties, they're the vehicles by which we advance democracy in america. but they are not themselves inherently democratic
institutions. in the small d sense, this is not a one man, one vote process. so you come into the convention, either able to secure the ballot on -- to secure the nomination on the first ballot, or the rules call for open balloting in the second, third, you know, fourth rounds of this, anything can happen. and when you look at the republican contest tonight and you start to look at the delegate totals necessary to be nominated on the first ballot, it's almost an impossibility to see how ted cruz gets there and it's a stretch to see how donald trump gets there. he could get there, but he has to perform very, very well in these contests going ahead. so this republican race tonight, unlike the democratic race, where hillary clinton has taken a big step towards being the presumptive democratic nominee tonight, with those big wins, the republican race is not there yet. >> so you're saying this is the side mirror of races, objects are actually closer than they
appear in this race before everyone takes off with trump's root to having the delegate total a funny thing may happen between now and cleveland. >> absolutely. >> can i give you a list of states and you tell me if kasich can win them? >> there's an article in the political class, a lot of people were passing around today about sort of the death of the political guru, if there's one guy left on the field, it's john weaver, he's john kasich's political adviser and he's the last guru standing in the republican party. you have had to remind me about john kasich on some of these nights because he was so far behind in the outcomes, he was almost sort of the forgotten candidate in the muck, that became in the food fight between trump and rubio. >> they have been overlooked and underestimated and that always
accrues to your benefit, they run the steady dignity lane, i have called it they're running alone in the dignity lane, and it redeems my faith in the party that there's a big win, however, unless he is tapped to be one of the vice presidential candidates for one of the two guys in front, i don't see the path for him. >> nothing says the path is wisconsin, connecticut, maryland, pennsylvania, california, california way down the road in june. but they say those all are big states, those are all states that they think he can win, he can be a contender. if you're talking about honest contenders, nobody can win before the convention even donald trump. rubio is out at this point, ted cruz may say he's viable, but he may not win until the convention. >> not enough to make a difference and of all the ones you name, i have not seen a poll that shows him ahead in any one
of them. he also is the only establishment candidate that's been endorsed by the establishment figures and not suffered. he made a joke about how much the romney anti-endorsement helped and how they would love to see him make more robo calls on behalf of -- kasich was endorsed by every single member of the ohio republican establishment then he won. >> the party itself. >> so i think that this landscape is shifting under our feet. i think most of it is probably that he's a popular home state governor. >> we'll see if he can win some more states. one of the more illuminating moments of the past week, which shows you that john kasich has more swagger, is when marco rubio came out himself and said our supporters effectively should vote for john kasich in ohio.
so people called the john kasich campaign and said, well, are you going to tell your supporters that they should vote for marco rubio in florida? they said, no, we think he will lose florida without our help. that's the confidence and swagger that the kasich campaign has. they see themselves as contenders, they feel like they have been very happily misunderstood estimatmisun misundersto misunderstood -- misunderestimated in this campaign. we go to west palm, apparently without television, word has filtered through, one wonders how people would ever learn anything in that crowd. >> that is a big crowd in west palm beach. >> that is a device held aloft, the former secretary of state who has had a hugely successful night. let's hear from hillary clinton. >> oh, thank you so much!
we are moving closer to securing the democratic party nomination and closer to winning this election in november. you know, because of all of you and our supporters across the country, our campaign has won more votes than any other candidate, democrat or republican. and i want to congratulate senator sanders for the vigorous campaign he's waging. now today, all of you in the states where contests were held voted to break down the barriers that hold us all back, so every one of us can share in the promise of america. you voted.