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tv   The Last Word With Lawrence O Donnell  MSNBC  April 6, 2016 7:00pm-8:01pm PDT

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rules in his favor and removes the gag order. there's speculation about whether one of the presidential candidates will be named in these records. there's rumor that ted cruz's name will be there. the article amounts to absolutely nothing. there's nothing substantive in it at all. sooner or later the story is going to get settled if he has these records and they do have what he says they have in them and he releases them. it remains to be seen if this thing will be settled in the courts or outside of it. now it's time for the last word with lawrence o'donnell. >> the democratic primary just got overheated. i know you showed some of what bernie sanders had to say, but this is a major turn in this campaign. >> yes, different type of race now if this is what it's going
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to be like. >> completely different. we do have breaking news on that. minutes ago at a rally in philadelphia bernie sanders said hillary clinton is not qualified, that was his phrase, not qualified to be president of the united states and then he went on to list several reasons why he suddenly thinks that hillary clinton is not qualified. we'll have all that for you and i know you think you know the worst about donald trump, you've heard the worst from donald trump, but in a lifetime of saying stupid and ugly things, there is always more to discover about donald trump and so we will begin tonight with a 20-year-old video of donald trump that is the most -- i'm not going to categorize it. i don't want to describe it at all. you have to say it, judge it for yourself. what i think it proves, the reason i'm showing it, is that i think it proves that donald trump always has been and always
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will be his own worst enemy. >> hillary, get ready. here we come. >> i mean, it's just ludicrous on the face of it. >> donald trump didn't waste in he time sharpening his attack on ted cruz. >> lying ted is stealing the nomination. >> donald can be counted on to take the high road. >> it's lyin'. >> this man is not like another candidate. >> he's actually a threat to our entire political system. >> boy, do you know me well. >> paul ryan is the obvious answer. >> what's so bad about the establishment? >> the establishment rules and donald droolz. >> unbelievable. >> bernie sanders and hillary clinton have agreed to meet for another debate. >> who do you think is more of
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the real new yorker? >> i think i know the he state better. >> i spent the first 18 years of my life in brooklyn, new york. >> bernie chose it because of his history and hillary likes it because it's remote, poorlily lit and close to the east river. >> the leader of the stop trump movement is now and always has been donald trump. only donald trump can stop donald trump from winning the republican presidential nomination. every day that he went up in republican polls, he was becoming more and more disliked and disapproved of by more americans outside the republican party, the voters who will actually decide who the next president is going to be. last night donald trump disappointed his enablers in the media and elsewhere who have been suggesting that any minute now he was going to switch from being a relentlessly ignorant to suddenly being presidential. donald trump had his 27-year-old
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campaign press secretary who has never worked on a political campaign in her life before put out a statement under her name that was no doubt dictated by the candidate who is 42 years older than she is, but sounds less than half her age. the statement of course called last night's republican winner ted cruz lyin ted and accused him of the federal crime of coordinating campaign spending with a super pac without any evidence of that crime. it was a bitter entirely childish statement. at the very same time that last night's republican party looser donald trump issued that statement, last night's democratic party looser hillary clinton issued a statement on twitter that was the picture of campaign professionalism. it was a model of being gracious and generous in defeat.
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hillary clinton said congrats to bernie sanders on winning wisconsin. to all the voters and volunteers who poured your hearts into this campaign, forward. signed it about her little h there at the end. the difference between donald trump's statement and hillary clinton's statement last night is the difference between being presidential and being donald trump. donald trump's campaign manager who has never run a presidential campaign before and is the only presidential campaign manager in history to be criminally charged with battery against a reporter was asked by "the washington post" last night if donald trump is going to follow newt gingrich's advice and make the transition to being really professional presidential candidate. the reply was, absolutely not. we have from day one run the same campaign. we're going to continue to execute. we're not going to blow up the
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model. here is the model they're not going to blow up. >> donald, what does tifny have of yours and what does tif annie have of marla's. >> she's got marla's legs. we don't know whether or not she's got this part yet, but -- >> i know you're experiencing the shock there and it was the daily show that used that last night, that's where we found it. i'm going to let you adjust to that for a moment the way he had to. we're going to show you that again because you are no doubt still working through that shock and the -- this is new dad, remember. this is new dad, donald trump, in 1994 talking about the birth of his fourth child. his first child with the second
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mrs. trump, his second baby girl. what you're gonna hear him say again is something i know you have never heard from the father of a newborn daughter. it is unthinkable as any father of a father of a newborn daughter can tell you, but you don't have to be the father of a newborn daughter to know that. hear once again, if you're ready for it, is donald trump speaking about his new baby girl. >> now, what does tifny have of yours and what does she have of marla's. >> she's a really beautiful baby and she's got marla's legs. we don't know whether or not she's got this part yet, but time will tell. >> so you see donald trump has
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always been his own worst enemy. all of the worst things we know about donald trump have come from his mouth and so it was last week when he tried to win hearts and minds in wisconsin. >> i expect that from a 12-year-old bully on the playground. your wife is a beautiful, classy woman. why can't you say the same about ted cruz's wife? >> i don't know ted cruz's wife. i'm sure she's excellent. i just don't know her. >> how do you ban abortion. >> you'll go back to a position like they had where people will perhaps go to illegal places, but you have to ban it. >> a new national poll of republicans and republican leaning independents shows donald trump at 40%, ted cruz within the margin of error 35%, john kasich at 20%. joining us now is the founder of our principals and anti-trump
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pac. and stuart stevens and back with us charlie sykes, radio host in milwaukee. he has endorsed ted cruz and he's one of the leaders of the stop trump movement. charlie you succeeded in wisconsin on the stop trump movement and the case i'm making is yes they ran ads against donald trump, but i don't see any more effective voice against donald trump than donald trump's own voice. that's what you used in effect against him in that interview with him. >> yeah. the unfortunate thing is that nothing seems to move the hard core trumpcans, even that really kro creepy, but we discovered we can put together a coalition of the sane and in wisconsin there's
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going to be 35% or so of people who are going to accept anything that donald trump says, no matter what, but then you have the 65% to 7 0% of republican kwe conservatives who look at this and go this man is unfit to be president of the united states. this is appalling behavior. there are the folks out there, the coalition of the decent and sane. hopefully you folks can do that in new york. >> stuart stevens, one of the silliest things i've been hearing for many weeks now are people who come on and say they're going to get him in line and he's going to turn and become presidential. you have worked with a lot of candidates and i'm sure you've spent a lot of time trying to switch the style of a lot of candidates and move them into a more winning performance style.
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i've never seen handlers of candidates who really were able to do that and change the style of a candidate. what's your bet on the prospects of donald trump somehow becoming what people would call presidential in this campaign? >> it's an absurd idea. you don't have to be involved in politics just to look at life. if you ask any female if she has a friend who is marrying some guy who is near 70 and there's a lot of things she doesn't like about him and he says he's going to change, you better like what you're getting because that person is not going to change. the root of donald trump's biggest problem is this sort of emotional damaged human that he is. th something happened to this guy and you can't fix that now. you can put him with this people or these advisors and all of this, but at the core trump is someone who has terrible judgment and emotional
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instability and a completely unsuited person to be president of the united states and there's nothing that anyone on this earth is going to do that can change this at this point in his life. >> let's look at how the spending went in wisconsin, the anti-trump groups combined to spend about $3 million, team cruz spent about $1.4 million, team kasich almost $1 million. donald trump the cheapest of them all at $.5 million. do those numbers look about right to you. >> i think we spent about $2 million from our pac in wisconsin on a host have projects. donald trump's own words are the most damaging thing for him. charlie sykes used donald trump's words against him. that's the bulk of everything we've done is draw attention to donald trump's own words and it's been very damaging to him.
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we saw the comments he made about his poor young daughter. i feel sorry for her. she can't help who her dad is. he said equally suggestive things about eye advantagea trump. this guy seems to view women for having any value for their sexual offerings. he's unsuitable to be president. >> charlie sykes i talked to a republican earlier this week who said a friend of his told him he was abandoning trump, he didn't disagree with trump about anything, but he was leaving the trump support because he could no longer defend trump in conversations with his wife. he just couldn't continue the conversations with his wife where he was trying to defend trump. >> that is really a good point because this is something i noticed. donald trump was very unpopular with women in wisconsin. he had a 77% disapproval rating. you didn't see that in the exit
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polls recollecti polls, but i think what you said occurred that a lot of men abandoned donald trump because the women in their lives were repelled by his behavior. i've been writing about the abuse of political correctness for 20 years. this is pure creepiness. every time something like this happens i think women see something and they communicate it to the men in their lives and i've heard men who say i can't justify to my wife or my daughter that i'm supporting a man who is -- has these attitudes, this contempt, this obvious contempt for women. >> i want to look at the newest poll of a new york republican likely republican voters. it shows donald trump at 52%, john kasich at 25% and ted cruz at 17%. stuart stevens that was completed just before last
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night's results in wisconsin. how do you expect the results in wisconsin to effect the polls going forward in new york? >> i really don't think wisconsin is going to have much impact on new york to be honest. i think it's going to be an individual race. i think you've seen a lo the t that. donald trump has to get over 50%. this is his home turf. i think that's a threshold level for him. if he can be held under 50%, i think that will be seen as a legitimate victory for those who are opposing donald trump. it's really a question of sort of his ability to adapt again as a campaign organization. they just have these rallies. they go to these places which usually aren't doing very well economically. they have these hatefests which is what this is about. and can he grow? he go the 35% in wisconsin.
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that's what he's been getting. so are republicans going to nominate someone who can't get one their own party over 35% or 40%? that's a very troubling idea. >> thank you all for joining us tonight. really appreciate it. >> thank you. up next, we have that breaking news, bernie sanders has just said at a rally in philadelphia that hillary clinton is not qualified to be president. he gave several reasons for that. you will hear them all. we have that video for you coming up. ould have stacked these tires. or put them on a rack. but the specialists at ford like to show off their strengths: 13 name brands. all backed by our low price tire guarantee. yeah, we're strong when it comes to tires. right now during the big tire event, get a $120 rebate by mail on four select tires.
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bernie sanders has come a lo long way in his presidential campaign and in the polls from single digits to being competitive and he's come a long way in terms of what he's willing to say about hillary clinton. he's gone from no criticism to tonight just minutes ago in philadelphia saying hillary clinton is not qualified to be president.
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you will hear what he had to say next. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪uh oh. oh. henry!
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oh my. good, you're good. back, back, back. (vo) according to kelley blue book, subaru has the highest resale value of any brand. again. you might find that comforting. love. it's what makes a subaru, a suru. moments ago bernie sanders said this about hillary clinton at a campaign rally in philadelphia. >> she has been saying lately that she thinks i am quote unquote not qualified to be president. [ boos ] well, let me -- let me just say in response to secretary clinton, i don't believe that she is qualified if she is --
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[cheers and applause] -- if she is through her super pac taking tens of millions of dollars in special interest funds. [cheers and applause] i don't think that you are qualified if you get $15 million from wall street through your super pac. [cheers and applause] i don't think you are qualified if you have voted for the disastrous war in iraq. >> earlier today on morning joe hillary clinton was asked whether bernie sanders is qualified to be president of the united states. >> do you think he is qualified and do you think he is able to deliver on the things he is promising to all of these democratic voters? >> well, let me put it this way, joe.
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i think that what he has been saying about the core issue in his whole campaign doesn't seem to be rooted in an understanding of either the law or the practical ways you get something done. and i will leave it to voters to decide who of us can do the job that the country needs, who can do all aspects of the job both on the economic domestic issues and on national security and foreign policy. >> joining us now from philadelphia is msnbc's reporter who has been covering the campaign. >> reporter: we were at that 10,000 plus person rally here in philadelphia. those were some pretty remarkable words from a candidate who quite frankly sticks very close to his stump speech and who has avoided
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criticizing hillary clinton in a personal way. i think that's the closest we've seen him go to essentially leveling that kind of critique of her. he has stuck in many what he did there was adjust his usual talking about her talking money from special interests and accepting outside help from super pac without denouncing them, et cetera, but pretty sharp turn to take and i think it really shows you the tone of this -- what this new york primary is already shaping up to be. even with wisconsin barely finished, we turned very aggressively to new york and the clinton campaign has focussed very heavily on that he had t e toral that he did with the new york daily news and he did that exchange with joe earlier today.
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guns, another major issue there. i interviewed bernie sanders earlier today and you could sense there was some irritation there with the focus on many of the topics of that particular interview. i pressed him on his position on guns. take a look. there have been calls for you to apologize to the victims of the sandy hook families. >> i would say that i am not happy about seeing a tragedy of that enormalty being politicalized. i cannot think of a worse tragedy than what happened at sandy hook or what the parents are going through, but i don't go around saying to hillary clinton, who voted for the war in iraq where we lost thousands of wonderful young men and women that she should apologize to the families for a war that we never should have gotten into. >> reporter: do you view it as the same, the people who were effected by the war in iraq and people who were victims of the sandy hook shooting?
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>> i believe that back in 1988 i lost a statewide election because i was opposed by the gun groups and you know why i was opposed by them? because i thought that assault weapons, the kind of weapon used at sandy hook should not be sold. that was my view. that was my view then and it is my view now. i don't think we should be playing politics with a tragedy, a horrific tragedy of that dimension. so i am doing everything that i can right now and i believe that i'm in a very good position to do it. >> reporter: even something of a personal way of looking at the sandy hook tragedy, although i did go on to press him to say directly whether or not hillary clinton was playing politics with sandy hook victims, he would not go quite that far. >> thank you very much for joining us from philadelphia. i'm joined now by the washington bureau chief and
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political analyst and the head of the community and con at the present time for side wire and co-author of hrc, state secrets and the rebirth of hillary clinton. david, this is a new campaign tonight. >> it certainly is a new tone and i think it just shows you that it's very hard to sustain cordiality when tlhere's a lot f competition. there are polls that show that bernie sanders may be getting closer to hillary clinton. he's come up with a theory of the case how he could become the nominee, get close on committed delegates and convince super delegates to come to him rather than hillary clinton. so his come pettive juices are
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flowing. she said that he's not qualified, which i think is not a fair reading of her remarks. it's an exploitation. this person is worried about what might happen and he looks to 1968 which mccarthy did not come around to support humpry in a positive way. this senator is worried if things go too far bernie sanders, who is not a democrat and has never been a democrat, won't be able to move his people behind hillary should she become the nominee. >> jonathan allen, i did not hear hillary clinton say to joe this morning that bernie sanders
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is, quote, unquote, not qualified. that's the phrase that bernie sanders used. he actually used that word, quote, unquote, not qualified. what she did was very artfully not answer the question, is he qualified and that's something that politicians will frequently do in these situations. did bernie sanders fall into the trap of using this phrase of thinking incorrectly that hillary clinton had used the phrase because she did not use those words? >> i certainly don't know what bernie sanders watched or heard or was told by his aids, but i don't think you're giving him enough credit for strategy here. i mean, i think here's a guy who basically made up her saying something and put quote marks around it. she's not qualified. i think -- i think he's getting hit in the mouth for the first time in this campaign and it's giving him to a place where he's saying things that just don't -- i mean i'd be surprised if you could find 10% of democrats in
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new york that don't think hillary clinton is qualified to be president. whether or not hillary clinton could have gone further to saying something kind about bernie sanders, she was evasive. she's evasive about a lot of things. she was evasive about the question of whether barack obama was a muslim if you remember that interview. i mean obviously she was indicating she wasn't ready to say that he was qualified, but i think bernie sanders' response is kind of just out of the mainstream, out of the norm and it's hard to understand other than he's getting hit pretty hard. >> let me read this. hillary clinton did not say bernie sanders was not qualified, but he has now said it about her. this is a new low. he is with the clinton campaign. go ahead, david. >> i was going to say jonathan
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is right in the sense this is a strategic assault. her campaign is sending out an e-mail fundraiser based on the premise that hillary clinton is saying he's not qualified. >> i would say based on the lie, david, right? it's not a premise. >> you call it -- you call it whatever you like. this is now their -- i think, this gets to the point about whether at the end of this there will be a way to patch things up. politicians are very good at pivoting and forgetting what they said 48 hours ago if it's not convenient, but i keep going back to this point bernie sanders -- i don't say this as criticism. he has no institutional loyalty to the democratic party. he got to where he was and where he is in vermont by running against democrats. so this is a very big dlelympha
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for the democratic party if he gets the nomination. >> bernie sanders has supported every democratic candidate for president. he said he would support hillary clinton if she got the nomination. that's why language like this is always avoided in these kinds of campaigns. you don't want to leave the sentence out there that you can't take back when you need to be out there supporting someone that you campaigned against. this particular phrase is very deliberately avoided because down the road it can become impossible to create party unity if this is hanging in there -- if this language is out there between the two campaigns. >> sounds to me like you suspect the republican national committee is listening to what's going on in the democratic -- >> the trouble is that all the reasons bernie sanders gave are reasons that republicans disagree with.
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>> absolutely. >> they won't be able to use it. go ahead quickly. >> i was going to say they will try to use that. bernie sanders has to make an argument to democratic super delegates that hillary clinton can't win the presidency otherwise he has no chance. >> this is going to be a continuing story tomorrow. thank you very much for joining us tonight. coming up, chaos inside the trump campaign. let me talk to you about retirement. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would.
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on day one of the campaign to win new york, here's what it was like on the campaign trail today before bernie sanders made news tonight by saying hillary clinton is not qualified to be president. >> this race now turns east. it's new york. it's places like connecticut, delaware, indiana, pennsylvania. >> this country and our government belong to all of us and not just the wealthy campaign contributors. >> a number of important areas he doesn't have a plan at all. >> there have been calls for you to apologize to the victims. >> by who, hillary clinton. >> bernie sanders is the first day of the real new york. >> i am not happy about seeing a tragedy of that enormalty being politicalized. >> taking sanders to task. >> i don't go around saying to hillary clinton you voted for the war in iraq and she should apologize to the families for a war that we never should have gotten into it.
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>> two and a half months ago you railed against new york values. how do you expect to do well in this state. >> do you remember during the debate when he started elelectug me on new york values. >> all of whom donald trump has supported. >> donald trump has got to go. >> it's getting heated, but the police don't want anything else to happen. >> unbelievable. >> here you have the stop trump movement. >> people within that group tell me it's less about votes than it is about delegates going forward. >> he gets very angry when the voters reject him. >> lying ted cruz came today. >> we saw heckers a couple of minutes ago. >> it's been one wild election year.
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we don't win with our military. we don't win on trade. we don't win on health care. we don't win on anything. we are going to start winning again, folks. >> that's donald trump tonight on long island hoping that he'll start winning again in his home state of new york after his double digit loss to ted cruz last night in wisconsin as voters lined up at the polls yesterday there was a piece that described the trump campaign in disarray. since march the campaign has been laying off field staff around the country and has dismant dismantled much of what existed of the organization. last month the company laid off the leader of its data team, matt branard who did not train a success or. multiple staffers and advisors left the campaign last month in
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protest of the way its management was treating its staff. a source familiar with the departures told politico. joining us now, one of the authors of that piece is ken vogle. this kind of piece is much more difficult do than it has been in the past because all those people have signed nondisclosure agreements that will subject them to getting sued by donald trump if they tell you anything about what's going on in there. >> yeah, that's right, but the good news is that so many people have been laid off and so many people are sort of on the outs with the campaign, that some of them do feel comfortable coming out now and saying it and letting us know what's going on inside the campaign because there's a little bit of a strength in numbers feeling that they wouldn't be able to deduce from whom this information is coming. i can tell you it's coming from a lot of people. >> you have been around campaigns when they're in trouble. it's a feeling that's really
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easy to pick up even without people saying it directly. what would be on the scale of one to ten of things shaking inside the building, where do you put this one and is it all about corey lewandowski and people against him. >> i would say it's par for the course. it's a campaign that was winning, but they came off a particularly stretch and they're seeing now the electoral landscape unfolding in a way that is challenge and the current campaign staff might not be up to so there's a realization here that we might need to change course and a lot of it is about corey lewandowski. there's the sense that he hasn't been able to really speak hard truths to donald trump and has instead sort of -- he says let trump be trump, that's the approach that he's taking. some of the folks around trump, including we understand some of
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his family, feel that's been a disservice because it's failed to check some of trump's more combative instincts which have gotten him in trouble. >> you're looking at polls saying more the american voters say of trump the more they don't like him, the more the disapproval goes up. long before that you're supposed to stop letting trump be trump. >> his ceiling is harder and lower. one of the folks who was sparing with corey lewandowski is the veteran gop strategist who had a meeting this morning with trump. we don't know exactly how it went, but we do understand one of the things he wants trump to do is develop a more coherent conservative message. he hasn't shown any willingness to do that over the last several months and you have to ask yourself just toning it back would be one thing, but if he starts sounding like he's speaking from a script is that going to cut into some of the
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support that he's found in the conservative base. >> the trump fans are going to a wrestling match. they want to see someone thrown out. ring. >> that's right. he seems to enjoy that. i was with him last week in wisconsin. when a protester got up and started screaming they ushered him. he said aren't trump rallies the best. >> thank you for joining us tonight. coming up, nate silver joins us. he's going to end all the suspense. he always knows what's going to happen in these elections. where you going? we've got that thing! you know...diarrhea? abdominal pain? but we said we'd be there... woap, who makes the decisions around here? it's me. don't think i'll make it. stomach again...send! if you're living with frequent, unpredictable diarrhea and abdominal pain, you may have irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhea or ibs-d - a condition that can be really frustrating. talk to your doctor about new viberzi. a different way to treat ibs-d. viberzi is a prescription medication you take every day
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median. we are winning hearts and minds and from time to time we are winning states. voters from households with a primary mode of transportation is a bicycle we are winning 88% the vote. >> thank you senator sanders. >> voters under the age of 21, we are winning 120% of the vote. we are winning and we will continue to win because -- >> thank you. up next, nate silver doing nate silver. its way into your day, i hear you. to everyone with this pain that makes ordinary tasks extraordinarily painful, i hear you. make sure your doctor hears you too! i hear you because i was there when my dad suffered with diabetic nerve pain. if you have diabetes and burning, shooting pain in your feet or hands, don't suffer in silence! step on up and ask your doctor about diabetic nerve pain.
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my next guest is nate silver, the man who was always so right about the last presidential campaign. just bear with us for one more short commercial break and then nate silver. 7 . ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ her long day as anne. hair stylist starts with shoulder pain when... hey joanne, want to trade the all day relief of 2 aleve with 6 tylenol? give up my 2 aleve for 6 tylenol? no thanks. for me... it's aleve.
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last night at 12:18 a.m. the founder and editor in chief nate silver signed off in a post saying that does it for us tonight, folks. i'm going to sleep on tonight's republican results in wisconsin before having too grand to say about them. it's a weird case where there might be a danger of either underreacting, it's just one state, or of overreacting, this changes everything.
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well, nate silver, you've had a night to sleep on it. that's what we do. >> i'm still feeling pretty mellow. you have to be mellow because we're going to do this until july now. >> does this change everything? >> the big game changer would be if you have an anti-trump vote developing because he got 35% of the vote last night, that's close to his average in all the previous primaries and kaucaucu, but now you have two other candidates dividing that vote and it looks like one of them is stronger than the other. in indiana where it's winner take most, if he gets 35% there, that might have won it back in march against four or five candidates. it would probably lose to ted cruz in may. that would be something that would dynamically reshape the race and make it hard for trump to get 1,237 outside the northeast where he's going to clean up plenty, but preojectios
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that have him falling short might not be enough. >> you said last night the more immediate question is what tonight tells us about how trump might perform in subsequent states and that's what everyone wants to know. that's the sharply focussed version of the question. what evidence do we have? >> the most important state of all is california where i don't think anyone has an idea of what a competitive republican campaign looks like there. remember, it's 53 campaigns because they're all winner take all congressional districts. so you might have districts that are 80% democratic. you would think it's not ted cruz country, however remember he is the only one of those three candidates who actually bothers to have a data team. >> why would nancy pelosi be crucial in the republican race?
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>> i didn't design the rules this way. republicans did. they say it's three delegates for every congressional district. >> that's as valuable as going down to orange county. >> the same thing in new york where if you live in the south bronx then you're vote is 100 times more valuable than someone in florida. this was supposed to help the establishment candidates. ironically some of these places where trump might do well, but you average out to being moderate. this was supposed to be easy pickups for romney and now it's less clear. it varies from state to state, but some of them could be in new york. >> we can't stand the suspense. is trump going to have the number he needs going into the convention? >> well, i have to get technical here. i would bet against trump -- >> that's why you're here. >> i know. i would bet against trump having
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1,237 by california or through california i would say. the question for me is he close enough where he can close the gap with uncommitted delegates, maybe a few delegates who formerly belonged to other candidates but he has to be close enough, say 1,200 where he can pick up uncommitteds. the problem is they don't like him. you have a delegate selection process that is mostly separate. in fact three quarters of the delegates people who fulfill those slots are different from the winners of the states. so cruz is cleaning up in that process. trump paid no attention to it until recently. so if trump doesn't have 1,237, he has a bit of slack maybe, but not much and that has changed too. you have these states, it's like a slow month, but the people who fill that arena in cleveland are being chosen now and they are not trump fans.
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>> you wrote a piece today about you don't see paul ryan or someone coming into that convention who did not run for on this and ending up with the nomination. >> so maybe -- >> it already is. >> yeah. >> you've had 103 conventions in the past. there actually are people who like ted cruz and they tend to be these local and state republican party officials who have been going to these obscure conventi conventions for years and now they are very powerful. cruz between the combination of being a true conservative and being highly organized, that combination is powerful. if trump had been as organized as cruz about rallying the delegates together and making the old college try, there would
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be an 80 to 90% of winning the nomination. i think it's about 50/50 trump or not trump. >> if you go to paul ryan, you're asking him to throw away his political future. this is the time you really don't want the republican nomination. >> actually one thing that could maybe help trump is that if he's close and let's say he wins california, wins a lot of places is at 1,012 or something like that is it in ted cruz's interests to deny him the nomination or does cruz say i'll turn the other cheek and let trump have this one. trump will probably lose clinton and i'll come back in 2020. >> cruz's choice may be should i let trump lose this election or should i lose this election. >> it's possible someone will concede at some point. >> thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you. nate silver gets tonight's last word. i'm going to discuss the
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democratic side of the campaign with nate on our website. chris hayes is up next. tonight on tonight on "all in." >> wisconsin resoundingly rejected his campaign. >> the stop-trump forces prevail as a trump senior adviser reportedly threatens to quit. then after a big win in wisconsin, sanders sets his sights on new york. >> do not tell secretary clinton she's getting a little nervous. >> as clinton attacks the heart of the sanders campaign. >> the core of his campaign has been break up the banks and it didn't seem in reading his answers that he understood exactly how that would work. >> we'll debate that with sanders' backer robert reich and clinton supporter barney frank. plus, why republicans care so much about voter i.d. laws. >> hillary clinton is about the weakes

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