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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  April 12, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm PDT

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good day from new york. i'm brian williams. we're coming on the air 3:00 p.m. eastern time to hear from the speaker of the house. he's known by another term to millions of republicans across the country during this wild election season, and that is their potential savior at the convention. but paul ryan apparently will get up in front of microphones in about 15 minutes and say fully and formally take himself out of contention for that and say if nominated, he will not serve. we'll leave the exact words to
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him. let's go outside the venue. this is at the republican national committee headquarters on capitol hill in washington where, within the last five minutes, a wave of protesters has shown up outside. our luke russert is also outside awaiting this event. luke? >> reporter: yeah, hi there, brian. these are the democracy spring protesters. they sat on the steps yesterday calling to get money out of politics, certainly making their voices heard outside. this announcement by paul ryan which is expected about 3:15 p.m. what paul ryan's team has been trying to say the last few days is if he were to be nominated, he would not take it. he does not want his name in the nomination category. the reason really being that paul ryan believes, and his team believes, that he best serves as a vision for the republican party's future, that he wants to run a parallel campaign, make sure that house republicans are
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reelected to their spots, make sure they can hold the senate as much as possible and go forward in that capacity. if you look at the polling that shows cruz and trump more likely than not is behind a hillary clinton, ryan, who looks toward the future, would be well positioned in a 2020 race if he wanted to go ahead. it would be very difficult to go against the will of the republican primary voters and come out of a back room with party insiders in such an anti-establishment year. his team is very well aware of that. hence, at 3:15, you will hear a declaration from speaker ryan that under no circumstances will he be the republican nominee in 20 2016. i'm told this will be as shermanesque as possible. >> luke russert outside with some of his closest friends outside the headquarters. luke, thanks.
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luke mentioned that protest group had numerous arrests, kind of a planned group of arrests yesterday on capitol hill when they showed up yesterday. let's go to our political director and moderator of "meet the press," chuck todd. chuck, let's start off with u.s. history for 20, which is that last term that luke just used, shermanesque. we hear it a lot for lay audiences. what does it mean? >> it was for general sherman back in the day. i apologize to any of our history teachers out there who will say i have quoted this not exactly. if nominated, i will not run. if elected, i will not serve. that's what general sherman said when asked about his interest to run for president, and he said under no circumstance, and it has now become known as a shermanesque statement. if nominated, i will not run.
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under any circumstances, i will say no. i could hand me the election, i will say no. that's the definition of shermanesque. can paul ryan say something that definitive, that under no circumstances -- does he go all the way there? he's in this no-win situation, brian. by saying nothing, the assumption was, oh, everything he's doing is positioning himself to be the savior if necessary. think about what triggered this most recently? last friday, this video that came out, talked about divisive politics. it did sound like a general election message. but can he say no strong enough that people will believe him inside the party? i think it is important to the cruz campaign, the kasich campaign, and to the trump campaign that ryan make this attempt to say, hey, stop thinking about me. you're going to have to make your decision between these three people, not between
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others. i understand politically why ryan is doing this. i just don't know if there's anything he can say that will totally eliminate the speculation. >> well, chuck, yeah, it seems to me he's battling two things. number one is his recent political past. he ran number two to romney as vp on that ticket, and then he was just right up to the edge of ver m shermanesque about not wanting to be speaker of the house, but in the end they kind of formed a new definition, a new design for the job. and the video you just mentioned, he gave a speech to interns on capitol hill a few weeks back that was really extraordinary. when you go back, look at it, read the transcript. you don't hear major republicans talking that way. and then this video of his tour of the middle east. for all the world, it had a cinematic feel of a campaign spot. >> it is.
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look, ryan has done something that john boehner never did. paul ryan is embracing the fact that he is the leader of the republican party. in fact, i think that's what his folks would argue. he is doing nothing he would be doing if this wehe were a nomin the republican party. he has a responsibility to do his best to prevent saying, look, they're having a skirmish but there's still defining principles that the party is about. i will still be the guy that talks about them, trying to have a larger message that doesn't get drowned out by what's going on in the presidential. obviously, there are so many people that are in the party, in the donor class in particular, who don't like the idea of having to choose between trump or cruz and would love this idea that somehow ryan were the white
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knight. the speculation is getting heated that it could heat up the political party. a, he got the speakership, and b, how do we know how this will end up in cleveland? do we get to a party that's so fractured where they don't have a choice? they can't pick between those two and you have to find another alternative. who else besides ryan? i don't know if this does anything besides maybe giving him a little space between now and kplooeflcleveland. >> it's a nice thing to be said about you, and if he so much as allows a slip of paper through his verbiage, there will be especially republicans who see him somewhere between a dark
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horse and a white knight. chuck, i keep looking at the capitol dome, which is kind of a constant over the shoulder of so many of the live interviews we do for newsmakers from capitol hill. that scaffolding is supposed to be down -- >> it looks nice. >> it's looking better, i'll put it that way. the skaf folding is supposed to be down by the time our next president puts his or her hand on the bible and takes the oath. looking at that. will they be sorted out or look any more boisterous. i don't think they care who is being elected, and half the country would be displeased at the outcome. it's going to present quite the challenge for the next president, whoever he or she is,
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because you'll have a more rigid polarization, even, than we've se seen. '08 was not that way. i think obama got a moneymoon. i don't know how the new president gets a honeymoon. let me go back to ryan. it's april. do you know how many times april of an election year back in the day, back when you ran to win the delegates at the convention. the primaries would sully be a critical time of whether you might run or not. it's sort of an interesting turn. >> chuck, we're waiting here. we just gave people a situation, or this is just off the lobby of the rnc headquarters building, kind of a low.
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this is a very convenient spot on capitol hill. we're fortunate to have captain hill vet rarn. kelly, you've covered that piece of real estate and the people who handled it. is it important to continue this talk with paul ryan? >> the offices are conveniently located nearby to make that separation. the physical space is a separation, even though when we see him, of course, we think the house speaker. i'm struck by the fact that on capitol hill, we've had this conversation with paul ryan many, many times over the. the environment we're in now,
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brian, his willingness to serve. so we have talked to him about this. he says it'sie. he drew on his experience building the vice presidential nominee with mitt romney. he knows what it's like to go from battleground state to battleground state. i think he feels the most control that he has is to lay out an agenda for republicans that will be kind of a touchstone for the party no matter what the noise of a presidential campaign will be, and i've been out on the trail with all these candidates, without all the incoming, perhaps, he can have a way to say what they want to do on taxes, what they want to do on military spending, all the things that might not get as much attention.
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it would certainly disrupt his plan there. so part of the reason he's sincerely saying no, he has a game plan where he hopes he can be a crucial voice which will push the party in a. this is not the part of a climate where he would want to put himself forward when he's talking about things like structural change to entitlement. stuff that's really policy driven, not so much in the sound bites of our time. he's been encouraged to run so many times and has done so in a formal way, having his lawyer out a statement. no, he's not available for a draft. he reminds us again to be the. as we're counting delegate votes and multiple ballots, who is at
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the chairman paul ryan. he will be a big figure in the republican meeting in cleveland. he's trying to force the conversation to a place where they will look for, if not the current rememb current. it reminds me of when there's draft movements. you almost have to want to be president. what we're talking about is skwaunt taifbly. >> september schl. so those are some of my initial impressions of why we are here, why he feels the need to ramp it up, not a paper statement, not the weekly news conference with reporters who cover him to make it an event that has us talking
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about this, to try to tamp this down. brian? >> kelly o'donnell here with us in new york. for those just joining us, a member of the still photography press is at the podium so everyone can focus up. their attention seems focused at the back of the rahm past our camera, because that is pointed out. this is still a building not part of the capitol hill, not part of the complex, so anything political must be done at the base. that includes fundraising, telephone kaushlgsz neshz. a political statement about the republican party. . support. if this speech works today and paul ryan takes his name off the
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board, say ryan comes down and he's not going to be a possibility. for those republicans unhappy with the choice, say, of trump or cruz or kasich, what does that leave them for an option which is basically saying, here's the leader of the ren leerpd. >> it isn't going to be me, stop looking at me, you've got. i know i plan on supporting one of these three. i think that could be the impact, i think it doesn't feel the impact. another thing that doesn't help paul ryan here. i you know i golt.
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. kevin spacey is a guy that became all these things in government without running for them. he became an appointed vice president, he became an appointed president. all of a sudden you're turning around and saying, paul ryan said he didn't want to be nominated for president. yet he's. rmt. he's not helped by the political fantasies that hollywood comes up with that are spoiler alerts. >> the press corps awaits the man from janesville, wisconsin known for his passionate support for the green bay packers, th g thing. this talk of an open or contested convention when the republican party gets to
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cleveland this summer. >> i think to put the ryan talk in perspective, il. that chart about an open con slengs kind of turned into overdrive and kind of became convention ago, so get the nomination on the first ballot, to get the delegates he needs within the primary season that goes between now and june 7. to have the number, to hit the. donald trump over 50% here, r. he'll go 95 for 95 in the delegates here. you turn around a week later, it's a bunch of states in the northeast. he could add another is 00 delegates easier on that farm.
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these are unbound agent, they'll go. ment if donald trump gits a big win in pennsylvania, he could also get a big chunk of those unbound delegates. i can tell see it pretty clear for trump hitting that number, and that's the other issue, i think. and ryan, i suspect, recognizes this. if he was going to be the republican nominee under these conditions if trump were to fall short of 1237, we were to have that open convention, i think you don't have to play this out too far to see paul ryan or anybody else nominated under those conditions who is not donald trump would have a revolt on their hands. donald trump, his appeal to the republican base, at least the republican base that's rallied around him, is rooted so much in his willingness to stand up to.
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i've been saying, the republican base is basically screwing me up out in colorado. can you imagine that. support, a few dozen delegates shy of the imagine iblg number, having worn more votes than a inferior of snuchlt, and then to be denied the nomination, and not just for one of his rival candidates, but if it were paul ryan, for somebody who didn't enter a single republican primary or caucus and didn't get a single vote, that used to happen in the old days. you might show your strength or flex your muscle, then you show up at a convention. we've never had, where you have primaries and caucuses in all the 50r89. i think under any circumstances
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coming in there, specially under knees conditions, bisk tar giving them the raw end of the deal. i think if you're paul rin or. sfmt. >> steve kornacki, thanks. back to chuck todd for a question, and chuck, this came up on your broadcast sunday morning. donald trump has started working the word disenfranchised into his stump speech. others have used it as well. on sunday you kind of stopped the proceedings to say this is an incorrect use of the word. voters who have voted for trump during this process, if they get denied, if donald trump is not the nominee of the party, it is
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not a specific disenfranchisement. why is that? >> it's technically not. the two political parties are private institutions, not public institutions. they have rules to be a member of their club, they have rules to decide who leads their club. in many ways they modelled themselves, the parties did, in selecting who their nominees are would be selectively creating our own vrgs which is the view the electoral college. we've got state laws that bound these folks, but technically you could argue the electoral college, the people elected by the people, don't necessarily have to listen to the people. there are laws in place pho make sure that doesn't happen. that's how the two parties set their system up with the delegate process and all that business. you're going to have these
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delegates vote for all these views. i go back to something steve said, which is, the voters who are voting today really didn't believe that was the system they voted for. they did believe their vote was sort of a direct vote for deciding who the nominee is going to be. even though there is nothing that the parties are doing that would be disenfranchising, the rules have been there for decades, frankly, it would certainly, inside the party that would take years to heal. so they're in this position. we'll see how they get out of it, but i think they're in a prisoner's dilemma here. >> chuck todd, thanks. you see some had you been bub in the room. >> there's a tv that's been masked off by the four american flags behind the podium.
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the speakers' remarks have been placed on the podium. we're told he was seconds away, and here is the speaker of the house. >> good afternoon. i just returned from a week-long trip to the middle east to meet with our allies and partners there. we had some important conversations about isis. the security threat in that region and those around the world. but i'll tell you, it is really amazing how our politics has followed so closely overseas. i was asked about it everywhere i went. i'm also aware that while i was overseas, there was more speculation that someone other than the current candidates will emerge as our party's nominee. i want to put this to rest once and for all. of this race and i have remained as you know, i have stayed out neutral. as chairman of the republican convention, my job is to ensure there is integrity in the process, that the rules are followed by the rule book.
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that means it is not my job to tell delegates we should do. but i've got a message to relay today. we have too much work to do in the house to allow this speculation to swirl or to have my motivations questioned. so let me be clear. i do not want, nor will i accept, the nomination for our party. so let me speak directly to the delegates on this. if no candidate has a majority on the first ballot, i believe that you should only choose from a person. count me out. i simply believe that if you want to be the nominee for our party, to be the president, you should actually run for it. i chose not to do this. therefore, i should not be considered, period, end of story. i just think it would be wrong to go any other way. so let me say again, i am not
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going to be our party's nominee. but also be clear about something else. not running does not mean i'm going to disappear. when i accepted this speakership, i did so on the condition that i would do things differently than they had been done in the past. for one, i made it clear that this would be a policy in communications focus speakership. secondly, i made clear last year in 2015 before the primaries even started, that we would be putting together a policy agenda and offer a clear choice to the american people. that's what i told my colleagues i would do, and that is exactly what i have been doing. look, there is a big debate going on right now. it's about what kind of country we're going to be. as speaker of the house, i believe that i have not just an opportunity, but an obligation to advance that debate. as i've talked about this
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before, politics today tends to drift more. we are showing what we can do if given a mandate from the people. we have the idea to give a chler choice about a clear vision of what our party and our country can be. that's why i'm going to continue doing just that. i believe we can once again be an optimistic party that is defined by our belief in the limitless possibility of our people. we want a party defined by solutions, by being on the side of the people. we want to take our principles and apply them to the problems of the day. embrace free enterprise and reject crony-ism.
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establish a party that rewards work, not the well connected. a strong and focused military. a health care system that promotes choice and flexibility. a secure border. a government that allows people to fulfill their american idea. you know, this great idea that the condition of your birth doesn't determine the outcome of your life. that's the kind of agenda we are building right now, and that is the kind of agenda we are going to be releasing in the next few months. this job provides a platform to communicate a conservative vision for our country. and i am intent on using it, and i am intent on using this platform not for me but for my house colleagues, and for those who believe that conservatism holds the key to a confident america. this is a critical role that has to be played, and i'm in the position to play that role, with a nominee that gives a clear and compelling choice to our fellow
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citizens so we can earn the mandate we need to get things right, to fix our problems and to get our country back on track. thank you. >> mr. ryan, a lot of people said, hey, this is exactly what he said about becoming speaker, and then you ended up taking the job. what do you say to people who are continually skeptical of you and say you're going to back up -- >> those are apples and oranges. being a speaker of the house is a far cry from being president of the united states, specifically because i was already in the house. i'm already a congressman. so i was asked by my colleagues to take a responsibility within congress that i've already been serving in from the one that i had. that is entirely different than getting the nomination for president of the united states by your party without even running for the job. so completely non-sequitur comparison in my book. >> what happens, who prevents somebody from the floor to put
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your name on it? >> i will not allow my name. i am opposed to my name being put in place. let me answer your second question. the rules committee will decide what the rules are, but i would encourage those delegates who will place a role, and you think the delegates at the rules committee to decide that. i really believe if you want to be president, you should run for president. when we select a nominee, we should be select. >> interesting. brief q and a after that statement. let's run this pars our shermanesque expert. chuck, he sounded pretty shermanesque.
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>> he only remember. because he also then gave a pretty compelling reason for why he's probably the leading voice, the preferred leading voice by many republicans inside the party. gave sort of a broad, quick list of. he bus toned it up a little again, so i hoped the rule could. it makes it dairk he's ted, you had to have run. and he would say, i'll lelt the rules committee decide. is that one of the three candidates or any one of the 17 who at one point had filed for this nomination. i go with this. i think anybody who really wants
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him to be the nominee, will froebl sit there ask say. i don't think that's true, but anybody who is that pro-ryan, he didn't say anything that would have them nominate him. >> i watched as much of this coverage on television that begins sunday morning with you, obviously. i hear a lot of people, a lot of party people, saying this republican party is in crisis. a lot of good republicans, as we used to say, see donald trump as unelectable after which they assume will be gem, and here's john kasich going around the country. marco rubio has more delegates than him, but here's john kasich going around the country saying he actually runs best in head-to-head polling against
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cl donald trump. >> this is the guy who could probably unite the wings -- when he sort of put the party back together with the speakership, who was the one person that both sort of the freedom caucus, tea party wing of the party could accept and the mainstream sort of business wing donor community could accept? he is paul ryan. he is somebody that has some credibility in both wings of this party. maybe it's too much to say it's a civil war, but it's certainly a war inside this party for control and heart and soul of the party. for ted cruz and trump, they view hillary clinton as someone vulnerable. two terms in one party, the
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country is willing to look at another party. many think that's the recipe for a clinton victory. the fact of the. i have republicans tell me they're for kasich. when i say, what about ryan? they say, oh, my god, i would mu much. today's a very good day for hillary clinton and the democrats. if paul ryan is taking himself out of this, that is really good news for hillary clinton, because i could argue that he would actually be the most compelling potential nominee the republicans could put up against her in 2016. >> and yet, in your pressure testing, when you look at everything that is said for cracks, for leaks, your pressure test just today in the last two minutes is that perhaps his shermanesque statement includes many of the 17 who were in the
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race from the start, who technically ran for president as republicans? >> he's essentially saying, yeah. don't look to me, look to marco rubio, look to jeb bush, look at somebody. i don't mind if you don't like the two main choices, and if you don't like the third, fine. there are that's where i think he made a, and he gave a road map to the rules committee when they write the rules, which is very important in all this, we don't know the rules of it would ld. >> he gay a road map.
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make it so i cannot be nominated since i did not run. >> let's bring kelly o'donnell back into the conversation. she's been in contact with aides for the speaker. >> partly what they're saying is this message delivered in this way with this profile is necessary for a reason that may not be obvious. that is the simple operation of the house and the reelection campaigns for all the republi n republica republicans, one way to start that crisis is to know there wasn't one in the wings to go, respectively. paul ryan has a responsibility to his conference, to his members to be there, to help them raise money, to help them have the message, to hold the house. and by extension, to try to help the senate, which is far more vulnerable to losing its majority there. so while we are all, obviously, most interested in the presidential part of this.
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he is not just someone in their. all the conversation with us in the hallways needed to be expanded into this format in part to help the function of the house, the function of the reelections, and to keep those members who were wanting him to be their speaker to feel like he has their back going into the fall campaigns. >> kelly o'donnell here in new york, as well as steve i think one thing we have to keep in mind, too, is who are the delegates that will it be, trump or ted cruz is the nominee. obviously, donald trump to people like paul ryan, to people like mitt romney. ted cruz, doesn't bar or.
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this is a guy who led the republican party, sort of forced the republican party in many ways into the government shutdo shutdown. he was accused of lying on the senate floor about a year ago. look, not every delegate pledged to vote for donald trump is going to be a diehard loyalist. not everybody who voeltd, but the, not just the majority that you need to get nominated, but if you have any floor fights over rules. i think you can make a pretty strong case at this. tell gats are going to be anti hifr candidate who if this thing
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looks like chaos. you don't have a lot of consensus between the trump people and the krus on peel. this would not be a convention that would turn to somebody in the establishment. i think that rule that paul ryan put out there saying, look, you have the trump campaign and the and they basically feel, hey, that i be this thing need two ballots. if trump can do it on the first ballot, maybe he can get together the second. one of the. to the extent tharmt. in a loft ways it's to block donald trump from 1237. but there's also a calculation here, whether they think about it now or they think about it this summer if it comes to it.
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they have to think very practically about this. if they go to this convention and they deny the nomination to donald trump after donald trump got the most delegates, the most votes and the most states won, if they're going to do that, they have to replace him with somebody who is going to minimize the devolt and the defections from the bine wing of. . somebody like paul ryan screams establishment, and these are votes who. if ept to the gvlt in anything like that, your own realistic choice might be ted cruz, and even that might not be risky enough when it comes to stop a revolt. >> steve kornacki which wo, i understand, needs to prepare for
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the fourth hour. when we come back, we'll talk to the trump campaign and we'll ask the question, does this mean. for that matter, let's go all the way west. fiorina in california. that and more when we come back. >> we have too much work to do in the house to allow this speculation to swirl or to have my motivations questioned. so let me be clear. i do not want, nor will i accept the nomination for our party. bees? eese. trees? eese. xerox helps hospitals use electronic health records so doctors provide more personalized care. cheese? cheese! patient care can rk better. with xerox. that's it. how was your commute? good. yours? good. xerox real time analytics make transit stems run more smoothly... and morning chitchat... less interesting.
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party, to be the president, you should actually run for it. i chose not to do this. therefore, i should not be considered, period, end of story. >> so it was that quote, count me out, that made our own luke russert think, gee, this sounds a lot like when paul ryan was asked if he wanted to be speaker of the house. he was almost shermanesque back then. luke asked that question, and then for the first time, the speaker invoked actual food groups as part of his answer saying it was apples and oranges. luke stands by in the very small and very hot room where the press conference was just held. luke? >> reporter: yeah, brian, it's an interesting answer speaker ryan gave. he said it's apples and oranges. he said he was already an elected member of the house and went forward in that as elected member of the house because he realized it was something he had to do. he often talked about feeling
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guilt and the pressure he got from john boehner. what's different in this announcement and that race for speaker is this time around, ryan realizes the head winds are against him. i think that point that kornacki brought up about the delegates being very faithful to cruz or trump or faithful to the anti-establishment forces of the republican party is very accurate. the other interesting thing from today's press conference, brian, is the parallel vision that paul ryan laid out, essentially talking about upward mobility, tax reform, making a more fair tax code. kind of the ideas where he would like to focus the republican party on and his plan to do that throughout the course of the campaign. this is going to be a parallel campaign, so inevitably, when we project this out to the future, if there is a nominee trump or a nominee cruz or whoever it's going to be, whatever ryan says very well could differentiate with what they say. that's not really something we see a lot of in the modern era. usually the elected officials,
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the republican party, the house, the senate, they're like this with the nominee. they certainly were with mitt romney in 2012. so romney is essentially bypassing this to say i'm going to present a vision of the republican party that i think is a lot more acceptable to the general public than one that comes out of the convention. we'll see what dividends it pays in the future, brian. >> luke russert in the room where we just heard from the speaker on capitol hill. let's pull in "meet the press"'s chuck todd. with the speaker saying not me, not no how, to your point does that mean there's maybe cautious celebration in new jersey or texas or california or elsewhere? >> i think the real celebration should be ted cruz and john kasich, because they're both trying to unite the not trump movement or try to lure those folks that are on the sidelines
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now concerned about trump, not ready to deal with cruz. so i think if you're kasich or cruz at this point, you needed this ryan hope, apologies for the pun there, gone if you're going to be able to win over that donor that's sitting on the sidelines that would much prefer at this point anybody but the current three. so i think that's -- you say that's the real celebration. probably cruz more than anybody else. but yes, i think to a larger extent, ryan did send a signal of what he'd like to see in a contested convention, which is, go ahead. make it so that it's somebody who ran. you know, i think a lot of people have always assumed that if there was somebody he had a kinship with who was running, it was marco rubio. if you were to -- you know, if the person that probably was articulating the vision for the
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republican party that paul ryan is articulating, it was probably marco rubio. so it's possible that's another way to read into this if you really want to try to overread into what he said. what would his preference be? if you want to look for somebody not running, go to rubio. >> let me go at it another way. it is said that all roads lead through ohio, and that, to a lot of republicans, would mean partnering up with john kasich who said, at a cnn town hall last night, he was just equally emphatic and shermanesque, he is not interested in being number two on anybody's ticket, so that can be a problem. do you want the popular current sitting governor of ohio, former veteran member of congress, sitting out this cycle after he went all the way through a presidential campaign? >> boy, not if you're ted cruz or donald trump. if you think about -- if you feel as if your ticket you need
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to balance, whatever that means, and in the case of cruz and trump, they're two outsiders. they need to balance it out with an insider who has some electoral juice. john kasich sort of checks a number of boxes if you're one of those two. i would imagine cruz or trump wouldn't want to see kasich totally take himself out of this. but you bring up another point here that i think we haven't fully realized but is coming. i have a sneaking suspicion that both kasich and cruz could end up naming running mates in june, that if we are headed to a contested convention, if cruz isn't going to get 1237 in the first ballot and this is a battle for delegates, then you're going to see -- the reason ronald reagan in '76 picked a running mate was for delegates. he was short. people wonder, why didn't he pick the governor of pennsylvania? there was an idealogical balance he wanted, he was considered more moderate. but at the time the more favorable unbound delegates were
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pennsylvanians, there were about 100 of them. so there was a whole strategic balance by his team. those four it will give us an extra hundred delegates. it didn't work. my point is, don't be surprised if the next big story we cover, preparing for the convention is suddenly multiple running mates. >> what tells me we just got a preview of "meet the press" this coming sunday? >> i don't know if it's this sunday's "meet the press," maybe the last sunday in june's edition. i think we're a little too soon here. >> when is it ever too early to identify and talk about a possible political trend. chuck, thanks. don't go anywhere. we want to tell people that that little box in the lower right-hand corner of the screen is rome, new york, upstate, where they are preparing to hear from donald trump at 4:00 p.m. he is in an aircraft hanger.
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a very convenient place for political rallies. basically, you can taxi from the runway over to your event and take off right afterwards and hit a lot of locations in a single day. makes it even easier if you have your own aircraft with your name on the side, which mr. trump has used to great effect, as his backdrop. today, however, using the american flag on stage. kelly o'donnell remains with us. and kelly, this is a fascinating point that chuck raises. everything else about this election season has been, um, totally unpredictable. as we keep saying, there's not one prognosticator who got this right. who would have told you, some day in april of 2016, your front-runner on the gop side will be donald trump. oh, and by the way, hillary clinton will have a formidable challenge on her way to what some people were calling a coronation in the democratic
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party. >> it has been the year of years that we will be talking about many years from now. and one of the things that really strikes me is this issue that chuck just raised about potentially naming a running mate. well, that is a question that john kasich gets at town hall meetings. i've heard it several times, where voters will say, well, tell us something about who you would pick, as they are shopping for a candidate or wanting to distinguish kasich from trump or cruz. and he gives an answer that might surprise some people. he said, well, i've already done that. pause. he said, i had to pick a lieutenant governor. and he picked a woman named mary taylor, the lieutenant governor of ohio. and he talks about how in his decision making, you'd have to pick people who will tell you the truth and be willing to challenge you. that's sort of the scenario he gives. he won't talk about any current possibles for a running mate, if he were given the nomination. he shuts that down quickly and says it's too premature. but it's interesting that idea is out there in the minds of
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voters and chuck just raised it now. and in this year of years, certainly for kasich, the ohio pc we're talking about, no republican ever gets to the white house unless they have won ohio. there are different formulations that works for democrats, but winning ohio is essentially. so would we see kasich have some other role down the line because of the power of ohio? perhaps. one of the things we also hear on the campaign trail is a question about, who would donald trump pick? and the clues he has already given us, someone with government experience. now, that's a double-edged sword. on the one hand, he acknowledges, you need someone who could navigate government, who could be an emissary to elected officials that you would have to deal with. but he's also been the guy running as the outsider, talking about how government is not working. so that would be a challenge. you know, in many ways, how joe biden has been able to assist president obama, by being an emissary on capitol hill, often behind the scenes, not issues that get a lot of attention, that kind of partnership could be something that a donald trump might want with someone who
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knows how government works. just yesterday kasich was saying, if you want to elect someone with no experience, remember this fact. that for most presidents, that first 100 days, that first year, maybe two years until their first midterm election is when the most gets done. so if you have no knowledge of government, have never worked in government, don't believe government really is a good thing, that might be harder to accomplish things if you're coming in as a new person there. so that's a way to consider this. we've covered hundred days for presidents before, looking at, how do you assign how well they did? and if you look at some of the biggest accomplishments for president obama, they happened early on. so it will be interesting to see if voters want more information by pressing that. also, of course, vice presidents have to be put in nomination just as the head of the party would. so, there will be a whole another set of ballots with delegates and all of that math to contend with in cleveland for a vp nominee, whoever that might be, for whoever will eventually
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be the standard-bearer for the republican party. an unusual time, to be sure. i hear that from voters. some excited about it being so different. bringing them into the process. others shaking their heads in disbelief. not recognizing the party that they have, perhaps, voted for before. and in this way of trying to find out who is the republican party, and how can they try to win in the fall. that identity crisis something we hear a lot on the campaign trail. brian? >> kelly o'donnell here with us in new york. let's go up to rome, new york. if you put a pin almost dead center in upstate new york, it would end up in rome, new york, as donald trump is preparing to dress that group there. jacob rascon standing by for us. jacob? >> brian, the idea that the person that these voters have voted for or who have come out in preparation to vote for him, that he would get the most votes, that he would get the most delegates, but not become nominee makes them very, very angry and donald trump knows this, especially in the last
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couple of days, even though this is a separate issue, the colorado delegate issue that he's been railing on, it fits into his central strategy and argument that he is the ultimate outsider that all of his effort as an outsider is being threatened by this establishment who's coming in to steal the election. and even though these are the rules, this is how it can work, if he doesn't reach the magic number, he doesn't become the nominee, at least not on the first ballot, and may not even eventually at all, that, to these people, to a lot of them that i talked to, is simply stealing the nomination. and to many of them, they say they've never been out to support a candidate. they've never been to a political rally. many of them never even voted or used to vote democrat. he is their ultimate standard-bearer and this idea that it could be taken from them makes them very angry. brian? >> also important to note, the economy in upstate new york, in many places, has been hit awfully hard after the downturn of '08. and a lot of folks are laooking
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for some relief still from that. so this is going to end this hour of political coverage. we have heard a declarative, definitive statement from the speaker of the house. count me out, he says, when they come to cleveland in the summer. steve kornacki takes our next hour of coverage right after this. if you're going to make a statement... make sure it's an intelligent one. ♪ the all-new audi a4, with available virtual cockpit. ♪
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technology moves faster than ever. the all-new audi a4, with apple carplay integration. good afternoon to you. i'm steve kornacki live in new york. any second now, we're expecting donald trump to start a rally in upstate new york, in rome, new york, keeping an eye on that, we will bring it to you when he starts speaking. in the meantime, we just heard from house speaker paul ryan. once again, flatly refusing any potential convention floor coup that would make him in republican

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