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tv   MSNBC Live With Kate Snow  MSNBC  April 18, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm PDT

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hello and good afternoon to you from brook lib. i'm chris hayes. three months from today republicans will go to cleveland to pick their nominee for president and that is about all we know for sure on this, the eve of the new york primary tomorrow. that's all we know about the gop convention, the date. anyone who says they know who the nominee will be is either lying to you, lying to
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themselves or unlikely case they have been in the future and returned to tell us about it. donald trump is in the lead and a delegate sweep tomorrow would erase cruz's wyoming weekend momentum. the fact that trump's main target is the republican voting process itself could be a clue his campaign is thinking about the possibility they could fall short of that magic delegate number. we've got some new numbers from our nbc news/wall street journal poll to tell you about. ted cruz's numbers aren't that much better but the stop trump crowd needs him to do well tomorrow. for them it's the lesser of two evil situation. some encouraging news for trump himself. nearly two-thirds of republicans are behind him on one important issue, possibly the most important issue when it comes to cleveland's gathering in three months. that is if no gop presidential candidate wins a majority of delegates before the convention, the one with the most votes should be the party's nominee. donald trump's next stop is buffalo. that's where we find jacob
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rascon. jacob, what's the scene like up there in buffalo? >> reporter: he's ahead by the widest margin so far of the primary season but he's campaigning as if it's neck in neck. that's because he not only wants to win, of course, he wants to mathematically wipe cruz off the map. he knows if he can take all the delegates or shut out cruz, it will become mathematically impossible for cruz to secure the nomination before the convention, just like cruz has been talking about how kasich can't do that either. we've been talking to a lot of folks here. there are 10,000 people expected here and the police presence is massive, of course. a lot of them have those special handcuffs all ready. they won't accept any criminal activity. >> so why, why -- trump is talking a lot about the corrupt system, he calls it. you told me earlier you agree with that. why? >> what do you mean why?
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because it's we the people don't end up voting -- getting our own president in the white house. select rich people get the president in and that's not the way it should be. we, the people should be getting the president into the white house. >> it's fair to say that a lot of folks here -- a lot of them are excited. many people we talk to have never voted ever. others say they voted democrat and switched over. this really is trump country. we've never seen support like we've seen here all across new york. chris. >> going now to ted cruz who's in maryland today, he is campaigning ahead of next week's primary. that gives you a sense of his shot here in new york. at least his chances there. the texas senator is polling in a distant third in maryland, trailing front-runner donald trump by almost 30 points. joining me from towson, maryland, where ted cruz just wrapped up a town hall is nbc's
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hallie jackson. hallie, we always read the tea leaves of where a candidate is up next to an election. we kind of know how ted cruz thinks he's going to do in new york tomorrow. >> yeah, and where his head is at, especially considering tomorrow night ted cruz will not be in new york, he'll be a couple of hours north of us in philadelphia. significant that he is here in maryland and not anywhere in the empire state, as you mentioned. he was here just a couple of minutes ago, walked out. it was a pretty rowdy crowd. they seemed fired up for cruz. a smaller room but hundreds of supporters who were booing donald trump at every mention, chris. carly fiorina is back out on the trail. she has not been seen in, no, she wasn't out with him then although she was a surrogate for him in wisconsin where cruz was successful and doing well in that state. so cruz continuing to hit these main themes of his stump speech, jobs, freedom and security. he's hoping that will be
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effective in maryland and in pennsylvania, where an aide says they can still pick up a number of delegates, acknowledging that the media narrative has become unfavorable to cruz as he's competing in these northeastern states where he's not seen as a natural fit. that said, the campaign is looking to may 3rd in indiana. that could be a date that is a battleground. cruz has called maryland a battleground and other states as well but it's a place where there's a moderate conservative, a more industrial midwestern state and the stop trump movement could jump in and try to help. you talk to folks out here and people in maryland seem to be excited that they are part of a republican primary that could make a difference again and could actually help sway the nomination or at least contribute to a candidate's momentum one way or another. important caveat, though, a big uphill battle for cruz. you look at polling and donald trump in pennsylvania and maryland is up by double digits. 16 points and 20 points, so cruz has a way to go, chris.
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>> hallie jackson, thank you very much. ted cruz heads into tomorrow's new york primary with some momentum after securing all 14 of wyoming's delegates on saturday, cutting into donald trump's delegate lead. could that all come undone in the next 24 hours? joining me with his break down the delegate math is nbc news political editor mark murray. mark, the delegate rules for each state have been different and distinct and bewildering and confusing. give us a quick rundown on what the new york rules are. >> the new york rules are if you end up getting 50% more statewide and also in every single of new york's 27 congressional districts, you can win all 95 delegates that are up for grabs. i think everyone realizes that donald trump is going to do very well tomorrow in new york. the only question is how much. i have him projected about getting anywhere between 75 and 85 of new york's 95 delegates. the way for ted cruz and for john kasich to really keep donald trump below 95 and all 95
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is to be able to hold him down at a congressional district here or there, keep him below 50%. if they're able to do that, they'll be able to steal a handful of delegates. >> and so my understanding is if they can win a few congressional districts and keep him under that 95, people are expecting he'll win big. it's part of the reason we've seen kasich and cruz going to places you don't normally associate with republican primaries, the bronx, for example. that's because those congressional districts have very, very few republicans. they can almost meet face to face every voter and those voters count for so much more because every congressional district, no matter how many actual voting republicans it has has an equal number of delegates. >> that's exactly right. i don't think we have a really didn't idea of how these republicans will come out in the bronx and another democratic areas in new york precisely because the polling, there hasn't been a big sample of republicans in new york. there's also some ability to be able to steal a delegate here or there in some of the
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congressional districts that border around vermont, which is not normal fertile republican territory. but chris, every single delegate ends up mattering. if donald trump is able to win 85 to 95 of new york's delegates, he's going to go down from where he needs to win 61% of remaining delegates to hit that 1237 magic number, if he's able to get all 85 or all n95, he's able to bring that down to 57%, maybe 56%, so the math is incredibly important for trump. maybe more important of the april 26th contest of pennsylvania, rhode island, delaware and maryland to be able to drag and put that percentage maybe even to 50% where getting to 1237 becomes a 50-50 proposition. >> all right, mark murray, thank you very much. for morale analysis, tim carney, senior political columnist for "the washington examiner" and john nichols, co-author of "people get ready to fight
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against a jobless economy" joins me. tim, let me ask you this. we're looking at trump up 30 points here in new york and you can say he's from here, he's been a larger than life figure in new york state before he was a national figure and it makes a certain kind of sense. up and down the eastern seaboard, delaware, connecticut, all these places, what's your understanding of the regional predilictions? >> you just named a handful of democratic states where the republican is a minority subpopulation. if you go to staten island, the recent column i wrote was talking to a couple cops who live in staten island. white new york cops from staten island. it's almost a constitutional mandate that they support trump. and some people are thinking it's these formerly industrial towns. a lot of it this is all -- it's all identity politics, whether you're elite, working class,
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black, white, it's all identity politics and trump is the guy who is so outside the political class. cruz could have been the guy appealing to these voters if trump didn't exist. he is so outside of the political class. while cruz comes from -- he comes from texas, he comes from a protestant background, a protestant preacherism. none of that is stuff that i as a new yorker was ever exposed to. so is he one of us or not? >> yeah, first of all, tim, i couldn't agree more with the idea that all politics are identity politics. it all comes down to that. the idea of cruz as sort of foreign, culturally, in certain ways his religious backgrounds, even his cadence, his delivery, it's not what he is selling that they are not buying on the eastern seaboard and in new york. >> absolute lly not. even in places where he's got high marks for doing well, like
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wisconsin, where i come from, he lost rural counties, he had one pocket of big support in a suburban area driven by talk radio. so where we really are going to start to find things out about cruz comes in this primary in new york and then a week from now in all of these others because, you know, cruz has set himself up as the alternative and he's fighting like heck for wyoming and places like this. this is john kasich's moment. it's not that kasich is going to win anything big. but if kasich comes second in new york if that were to happen. and if kasich is the one who actually plucked out some delegates. we just had that whole conversation and didn't bring him up. but if he's the one who registers second and then goes down into, say, maryland and some of these other places and registered second, maybe connecticut, that could change a lot of cruz's trajectory. >> tim, you, and i john had a conversation right around the
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wisconsin primary. one of the things we were talking about was the distinctness of the anti-trump movement in wisconsin, extremely mobilized, conservative movement, constitutionally connected to scott walker and talk radio and the milwaukee suburbs. the question is is this repli replicable. is essentially geography destiny here? is that what determines momentum? >> yes. the word momentum, going into wisconsin and coming out of it, i was worried about the word "momentum" because it's usually a meaningless term in politics. what we had was a couple of states where it was good for cruz. where momentum could have meaning is if people who say i'm anti-trump, i'm going to pick the winner, where you could see if people are moving from kasich to cruz, that would represent momentum. momentum is when your previous movement aids your future movement. but that's not happening if, as
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john said, kasich does better than cruz in new york. in my congressional district in maryland, i could see kasich winning my congressional district. so if i'm an anti-trump voter in suburban maryland, i'm thinking, wait, if i want to stop trump but i prefer cruz, maybe i go for kasich so that's where momentum matters. is cruz really defined as the anti-trump in other states as he was defined in wisconsin. >> and in some senses, the next two weeks, new york and then into the northeast, delaware, connecticut, maryland and pennsylvania are sort of the -- they have been the justification for kasich's continued -- >> of course. >> -- status in the race since he won ohio because no one thought he was going to do that well in other places. now it's in the place -- you know, he was born in pennsylvania. cruz is also approaching the point that kasich has, which is he's mathematically eliminated from actually winning 1237 outright before the convention. >> look, cruz has always been a
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place holder. and i know he doesn't like that thought and his supporters actually are deeply committed. they're impassioned and they're working hard. but the fact of the matter is cruz is no more attractive to the republican establishment than trump is. in fact maybe less in some ways. and he has geographical regions where he is very unlikely to take off. and so what you're really seeing something now is getting very close to 1964 where moderate republicans wanted to stop barry goldwater so they had, you know, lodge and then rockefeller and then scranton and then they thought about nixon and they kept popping some alternative up. at the end of the day, none of it got enough traction. i think we have to start to acknowledge the reality that donald trump could over the next two weeks get an awfully lot closer to the nomination. >> things are going to look a lot different after tomorrow and after the week after that. tim carney, john nichols, as always, gentlemen, thank you very much. still ahead, bernie sanders
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both hillary clinton and bernie sanders out on the campaign trail today. clinton just wrapped a campaign event and sanders will hold one later tonight. recent polls show clinton with a double-digit lead on sanders in new york but a new national nbc news/wall street journal poll shows sanders trailing clinton by just two points among democratic primary voters. for more, let me bring in kristen welker, who's covering the clinton campaign from new york city. kristen, if you're the clinton
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campaign, you're not paying a ton of attention to national polling at this point? all right. it looks like kristen welker's sound is not working so let's go over to casey hukasie hunt who covering the sanders campaign. they did a 48-hour odyssey in rome. they were in prospect park right by where i live, they'll have a whole lot of people tonight but to me it encapsulates the issue for sanders, the ability to turn out huge crowds, tremendous depth of support but still trailing behind clinton in new york. >> reporter: that's right, chris, that is going to be his challenge. he'll have a rally tonight in long island city. they waited until the end of this primary campaign to start having these big rallies. when we first got here, he was coming off that big wisconsin
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win. everybody thought he could roll into new york and start to move the numbers here the way he's moved them in other states where he spent a lot of time and that just didn't happen. hillary clinton ground him down in a couple of news cycles last week and of course sanders went to that giant rally in washington square park and we started to see, okay, this is why sanders has come as far as he has. but you've seen him shift his campaign style over the course of the last 48 hours as he tries to win here. he spent the last couple of days kind of wandering around in the streets of new york city, which is not really a form of campaigning that sanders has traditionally engaged in. he's been a guy who's much more comfortable either in a formal interview setting or obviously on stage at these massive rallies giving what's essentially the same stump speech, although it has a couple of different lengths. there's a 40-minute version, an hour-long version, but fundamentally the same speech and hasn't often engaged in diners.
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here he's walking in the streets of midtown earlier today, so a little switch for them as they try to figure out what is the best way really to start to have that same impact that they have had elsewhere. the challenge for sanders, some of this is going to be about expectations. if he does come closer than many of these public polls are showing, and he alluded to that on the "today" show, then he could come out of here with a little bit more energy. on the flip side, if he loses big, that's going to be a real problem for him. obviously he needs to win by a huge margin if he's going to close that pledge delegate gap with secretary clinton. so at the very least the clinton campaign will be focused on that regardless on wednesday, chris. >> all right, thank you, kasie. let's go back to msnbc's kristen welker who is covering the clinton campaign. kristen, i've got to imagine that the clinton folks are basically focused on one thing now which is the math, which continues to be in their favor. the polling average in new york shows them up. they just need to keep winning and amassing delegates and not
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get bogged down on anything that distracts them from that. >> reporter: that's absolutely right, and they keep going back to the math. the fact that secretary clinton right now has a larger delegate lead than barack obama had at any point in 2008 over secretary clinton. secretary clinton out rallying voters today. they're not taking any chance in new york despite the fact that she does have a double-digit lead according to all of the polls. this aimed at rallying her base, rallying women voters. she gave a wide-ranging speech that touched on a number of topics that women voters care about, everything from increasing the minimum wage to expanding health care. even passing immigration reform. but chris, the themes that really brought this crowd to its feet, when she took on the republican front-runner, donald trump. take a listen. >> donald trump says wages are too high in america right now.
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they don't believe equal pay is a problem. they sure don't want to move toward paid family leave. so this is not just a free choice. there are consequences for how we vote and the agenda we put forward. and the other point about what's happening with the republicans as i mentioned earlier is they truly want to strip us of the rights we already have. and i'll tell you where i stand, because it is in opposition to where they stand. i will defend a woman's right to make her own health care decisions and i will defend planned parenthood. >> reporter: and, chris, going back to the numbers, the clinton campaign's goal is to get a double-digit win here because if she can achieve that she would almost put this race out of reach for senator sanders. chris. >> kristen welker, thank you. still ahead, as the candidates look towards the future of america, we go back to
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their new york roots from brooklyn and queens from chappaqua, new york. we've got it all covered. that's next. ♪ ♪ take on the unexpected. the new 2016 nissan altima. built to stand out. if you have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis isn't it time to let the real you shine through? introducing otezla, apremilast. otezla is not an injection, or a cream. it's a pill that treats plaque psoriasis differently. some people who took otezla saw 75% clearer skin after 4 months.
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hasn't your nose been through enough already? try new rhinocort® allergy spray. muddle no more® three of the presidential candidates on the ballot here in new york all boast empire state roots. msnbc's cal perry is outside brooklyn college, which sanders attended before transferring. what does brooklyn remember about the senator? >> reporter: brooklyn loves the senator, at least this part of brooklyn. specifically brooklyn college, which we'll give you a nice view of on this beautiful day. people here love bernie sanders. he went on to the university of chicago after this, but the rest of brooklyn, the outer parts of brooklyn are big on hillary clinton so he's got to do very well in neighborhoods like this one in flat bush. we should say it was here in 1960 he did one semester here. according to his friend, who he
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lived with just a few blocks away, this was a very difficult part of his life. >> it was that one semester when we were roommates together at brooklyn college and neither of us wanted to go there. he had been accepted to the university of chicago and i believe he had a scholarship but he couldn't leave the city because his mother was so sick. and his brother had gone to harvard law school and he came back to the apartment and it was a very small three-room apartment. he and his brother basically slept in a bedroom. >> as i said, chris, an uphill battle in the polls obviously for senator sanders hoping to make some gain against hillary clinton. but when you're out and about in brooklyn, when you get off of this college campus, you run into that hillary ground game. you run into a lot of people handing out flyers, trying to get people to go to the polls tomorrow. of course you had to be registered months ago and
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hillary is hoping those folks were. >> that high school that cal was standing in front of, james madison, also boasts famous alums such as chuck schumer and ruth bader ginsburg. sort of an amazing place for the outer boroughs of new york. let's turn to chris jansing where the clintons call home in chappaqua, new york. i would imagine hillary clinton is polling pretty strongly in chappaqua? >> reporter: there's no doubt about that, chris. the business people certainly love the clintons because they say it brings in a lot of tourists who were never here before. this is a place that the clintons decided to live in when she decided to run for senate in 1999. they bought a beautiful house, $1.7 million. although there are a lot of other houses that are a lot more expensive. this is often described as a leafy community, fairly genteel and we should say for the record that you're a big hillary
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supporter. >> yes. >> i found quite a few of them as i was around town today. tell me what they are like as neighbors. >> they are wonderful neighbors. they are very involved neighbors. they go out of their way to be a presence in our town. you've probably already heard that hillary clinton will carve out time every year to march in the memorial day parade. there's an annual community day that's sponsored by the local rotary club. they have been a presence there as well. there's a wonderful program called the chappaqua summer scholarship program that has a graduation ceremony every year for the kids who come to chappaqua and take courses at the high school and stay at resident homes and she was a speaker there. she told the kids to pay their kindnesses forward. she goes around giving wonderful messages right here at home. she's wonderful. she's been wonderful to me. i traveled with her to africa and to turkey. never in my wildest dreams did i
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think when i asked her if i could travel with her she'd say yes, but that's hillary. that's what she does. she empowers women. she is inspiring to women. she changes women's lives. >> thank you so much, grace bennett. you know, it is interesting, i actually was around when hillary clinton first started running for senate. a lot of people were skeptical, called her a carpet bagger. one of the ways she won people over was to get into these communities and talk to people one on one. i will tell you that people whisper in my ear that bill clinton is the most natural, more gregarious one. breaking news, chris, his book is outselling her book at the local bookstore. so there you have it. >> chris jansing live from chappaqua, thank you so much, chris. so donald trump grew up in queens across the river from the high-rise buildings of manhattan. jacosoboroff is talking to voters there. jacob, what are you learning? >> reporter: chris, my friend, i do not often drive in new york city, but when i do, i do it to
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give a driving tour of donald trump's neighborhood in jamaica estates, queens. he grew up in a house not far away from here. at the time this big subdivision was home primarily to a largely white community and the surrounding neighborhoods have diversified quite a bit since then. that is why we came out here, to go to his old house and talk to his old neighbors, new neighbors to see what they thought about his bid for president. take a look at this. when you think about donald trump, you think about giant manhattan skyscrapers, not a house like this but it turns out trump grew up in this house when he was a kid in new york city. that's why we're out here in mr. trump's neighborhood, to see what some of the folks out here think of his bid for president. what's your name? >> joseph. >> you grew up around here? >> yeah, i grew up in jamaica queens. >> so donald trump lived in this house right here. are you going to vote for him on tuesday? >> no. >> definitely not? >> not at all. >> do you know who grew up in this neighborhood?
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>> besides myself? >> let me give you a clue. he's running for president. >> yeah, some would say donald trump grew up in jamaica estates. >> how do you feel about that? >> well, i'm an assemblywoman, so i am not supporting donald trump. >> who are you supporting? >> i am supporting hillary clinton. >> who are your constituents. >> a lot of first generation immigrants. >> do you think he's got a shot out here on tuesday? >> no. >> jacob from msnbc. >> hi. >> do you know donald trump grew up around the corner. >> yeah, he did. yeah, i know. >> are you going to vote for donald trump? >> hell no. >> hell no? >> hell no. >> if donald trump ever took the subway, most likely this is the subway he took, the f train at 179th street station. do you live here in jamaica? >> yes. >> are you voting on tuesday? >> i have to. >> who are you going to vote for? >> bernie. >> bernie sanders? >> yeah, yeah. >> what about donald trump, he's from the neighborhood. he grew up here. >> he's a nice guy.
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>> do you know who grew up in this neighborhood? >> i know that maybe nicki minaj and 50 cent, something like that. >> nicki minaj and 50 cent grew up in this neighborhood. i didn't know that. >> maybe there is something more important, but i knew about them. >> depends if you like american politics. donald trump? >> oh, i don't like him but i didn't know that he was from here. >> so you like nicki minaj and 50 cent better? >> yeah, i prefer nicki minaj and 50 cent better than donald trump for sure. >> chris, all right, so as we drive down midland parkway here, i have to say in defense of donald trump, queens will probably be a strong hold for him if not his own old neighborhood. as we drive up right here, you can see it out the 1 douwindow old house here in jamaica estates. >> donald trump's father was a huge real estate mag nate so he wasn't a hustler. his father has his name attached to huge housing developments spanning all over new york and that was part of the fortune
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that donald trump inherited. up next, bernie sanders channels the spirit of a new york political legend in his request for a come-from-behind victory here in new york. we got another one. i have an orc-o-gram for an "owen." that's me. ♪ you should hire stacy drew. ♪ ♪ she wants to change the world with you. ♪ ♪ she can program jet engines to talk and such. ♪ ♪ her biggest weakness is she cares too much. ♪ thank you. my friend really wants a job at ge. mine too. ♪ i'm a wise elf from a far off shire. ♪ and sanjay patel is who you should hir ♪ thank you. seriously though, stacy went to a great school and she's really loyal. you should give her a shot. sanjay's a team player and uh... legalzoom has your back. for your business, our trusted network of attorneys has provided guidance to over 100,000 people just like you. visit legalzoom today. the legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here. you have to feel healthy... on the outside your core. trubiotics a probiotic from one a day
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we're back live here in brooklyn bridge park. brooklyn bridge finished in 1883 behind us. we're hours away from new york's big primary tomorrow. right now polling here has clinton leading sanders with double digits but sanders is feeling good about his chances. he's out with this new tv ad. >> even when the deck is stacked, a new yorker will find a way to break up big banks, create millions of jobs and rebuild america. some say it can't be done again. but another native son of new york is ready. bernie. rebuild the middle class, make wall street banks pay their fair
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share. give every child a chance. new york, it's our time again to build a future to believe in. >> i'm bernie sanders and i approve this message. >> i bring in john nichols, national affairs correspondent, sabrina sidiqui and tim collins. sabrina, one of the political aspects has been focused on the republican side but it's true on the democratic side. there's been states where sanders has outspent clinton only to lose by quite a bit and states where he's won despite not spending much on ads. what is your sense of how much essentially the demographics are determining these outcomes? >> well, i think that one area where bernie sanders has done well is when he really has actually invested not just on the ground and in terms of building -- having a presence in terms of campaigning but also where he has advertised.
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his campaign points that they came from behind in michigan and what they're trying to achieve here in new york. how much of a difference is that going to make when he's trying to come from a double-digit deficit according to the average of most publicly available polling remains to be seen. we did see he had a really large crowd over the weekend, but at this point i think that the clinton campaign, they feel very comfortable about their chances tomorrow. >> what do you think of the ad, john? >> i think the ad is important because more than just a local hero, and certainly that in new york. but fdr really set the stage for the modern democratic party. it's notable that hillary clinton announced her candidacy at freedoms park. my friend harvey kay, the great historian, wrote a book called "the fight for four freedoms" and that really it was fdr that set the tone. sanders is looking to set himself with a core democratic hero in new york and also with a
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guy, looking what he's saying. tough times, hard challenges, another native new yorker. it's a smart ad. >> part of the issue is that fdr was coming off the heel of republican rule and misrule and that's one of the tricky things about the sanders critique. tim, you grew up in new york. john and i were talking about this just a moment ago. you know, new york is a blue state, it votes heavily democratic, heavily progressive. in terms of its institutional setup, things like voting access, no early voting, ridiculously early deadlines to change party registration, its primary system is pretty closed off and pretty wired for incumbents and party favorites, which i think you can imagine having some impact tomorrow. >> i still remember as a kid having random days where school was closed because it was an election day in march of an odd-numbered year and then i found out that not every state is as arcane and complexity is a subsidy is one of the things i
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say about business regulation and that sort of thing but it's also true in an election. it tilts the playing field in favor of people who can better handle the complexity. in new york that's often meant the labor unions or the people who are already in office, that those are the people that benefit. this is an open presidential primary, not that kind of thing. but obviously in new york state, which hillary clinton represented as a senator and where hillary clinton is sort of the establishment candidate, that she will be the one to benefit. while what bernie's advantage is, is massive enthusiasm that you see in that brooklyn rally yesterday or the washington square park rally last week. that doesn't translate itself as much into the granular knowledge that allows you to navigate these sort of things. on the republican side, the trump children not knowing that there was a registration deadline to switch parties earlier than the deadline to sign up to vote, that's exactly that kind of complexity that helps the establishment.
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>> and, erica garner, who is a prominent supporter of bernie sanders, also had that same problem. i saw her posting on facebook about that. so this is widespread. let me just say, it's ridiculous. october 25th of last year, i believe, was the deadline to register for a party or switch parties for this primary that's taking place tomorrow, which i don't think is defensible in any way. >> yes. and one thing i wanted to note on demographics and it's key to this ad that bernie sanders has too is in theory new york is somewhere that plays right into his message about income inequality. you think back to bill de blasio and he ran a campaign based on two new yorks. but bernie sanders has struggled to articulate his message and how it plays into what a lot of minorities face in terms of their challenges economically. he hasn't really talked about his message in racial terms. he talks about his incomin equality message and i think it
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hasn't translated among african-americans and other voters he would need especially here to win in new york and that's what one of hillary clinton's strengths has been is tailoring that to each individual demographic that you need to win in order to win a democratic primary. >> he has adjusted that a bit but in some ways it's one of the things that happens when you do new york politics. a democratic politician in new york is dealing with a tremendous array of constituencies. everyone from one day you're campaigning with orthodox jews and the next day with dominican business owners in the bronx and with korean associations and part of what makes a good new york politician is learning how to sort of build that coalition, specify those messages and that's something that's a kind of muscle you don't work out in vermont nearly as much as someone in new york. john nichols, sabrina siddiqui and tim carney, great to have you guys. up next, a new bill on capitol hill would allow families and victims of the 9/11 attacks to sue the saudi government and the white house wants congress to block it. much more on this, next.
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one of the big stories you might have missed if you were out enjoying the weather this early spring weekend, the battle over 28 so far unreleased pages of a 2002 congressional inquiry into the september 11th attacks. families of victims say it assigns blame to some in the saudi government and families want to be able to sue in response. the front page of "the new york times," saudi arabia warns of economic fallout if congress passes 9/11 bill. joining me now, the man who wrote that article, mark mezetti. mark, this has been a long unfolding story ever since back when the report was first issued. first, give us a sense of what we think we know is about what's in those 28 pages and why the saud might not be so excited about it being declassified. >> well, as you said, the 28 pages of this 2002 report are classified still, they're redacted. there's all sorts of speculation
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about what's in them. we think that they discuss the role of any outside government in the 9/11 attacks. most specifically, the role of saudi officials, possibly saudi officials working in the united states at the time and what role they might have had in assisting the plot. we don't know. we are speculating to some degree. but the extent that the families of the 9/11 victims have in courts been able to learn enough about the saudi role, that's really what's pushed this along, this idea of somehow bringing the saudi government into account for their alleged role in 9/11. >> my sense is that as this lawsuit has unfolded in sort of fits and starts, the saudi government has been quite openly opposed to it and also lobbying the successive u.s. governments to sort of cut this off. you've now got a situation in which congress is considering a bill that would essentially open up the door for this lawsuit and the white house wants congress to block it. >> right.
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basically what's going on is the bill that's in the senate right now would create changes to the existing law that would allow in some cases of terrorist attacks on u.s. soil, that some who, if supported the attacks, would be held to account legally. right now, they have sovereign immunity. the united states has sovereign immunity overseas. the white house is saying it sets a bad precedent. if you strip saudi arabia of that, there could be retribution overseas. the bill has widespread bipartisan support in the senate. it passed through the judiciary committee without dissent. ted cruz and alfranken and diane feinstein all supporting the bill, which is very unusual in the senate. >> mark, you've been reporting in this area for a while and you're one of the best reporters in this area. talk to me a little about the
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saudi influence in american politics. in many respects people feel it's been waning somewhat. there's been frustration from the saudis about the away the usa has pursued diplomacy with iran. do you get that sense? >> yeah, sure. if you look back to the days of the reagan administration or the first bush administration, prince bandar in washington, the influence that he had, there's none of that today. part of that is obviously the price of oil has declined and the domestic oil market means the united states is less dependent on saudi oil. but there's other things. as you said, the diplomatic measures taken to thaw relations with iran. the saudis are concerned that the u.s. is realigning an alliance with iran, away from saudi arabia. and to have a bill like this,
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introduced by senator chris murphy of connect, that would potentially put restrictions on arms sales to saudi arabia, these are not the types of things you would see in the senate maybe a decade ago. so maybe it's a small sign of changes and perhaps the waning influence of the saudis in washington. it strikes me that the politics of this issue, independent of whatever the substantive merits are fairly obvious in so far as hillary clinton and bernie sanders are supporting the bill against the opposition of the white house. >> that's right. and yesterday when they were asked, they either weren't prepared for it or they had to get their stories straight. the white house is obviously not broadcasting its opposition. they're doing this very quietly. and so the politics, as you say, are a very visceral part of this. >> mark mazzety, always a pleasure, thank you, mark. >> thank you. >> we'll be right back. don't go anywhere. oh no
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[gulp] uh, how about an island? island, yeah. yeah. yeah. [laughing] were you laughing in your fantasy? yeah! me, too. [gasps] good afternoon. i'm chris matthews in washington. as new york goes, so goes the election. it seems a 95-delegate sweep for donald trump could put him in position to reach the magic number. no contested convention needed. and if bernie sanders has any hope of catching hillary clinton, he has to do well in tomorrow's primary. a newly released nbc/"wall street journal" poll has her lead now down to two points. the bad news, more than half the
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country has already voted. our teams are covering all the developments from manhattan to upstate new york, also to maryland. but first to the mid east defense chief. ashton carter is sending more than 200 american forces to iraq in the fight against isis. he announced that today in baghdad. lester holt is traveling with the secretary across the mid east and joins us now live from the region. lester, you spoke with secretary carter today? >> i did, chris. he came to meet with the iraqi prime minister abadi to discuss additional capabilities, when he talked about the acceleration of the war against isis in iraq, and there was an agreement the u.s. would introduce 200 more troops to the estimated 5,000 or so that are there now. they will be in what we're told are adviser roles. in addition, they have agreed to authorize the use of apache attack helicopters in the fight against isis, and an advanced rocket-launching system. now, some of what they're
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talking about, the use of the advisers will put them closer to the front lines because they'll be working at what's called the battalion level now. these are folks who are a little moreloser to the fighting. and i talked about the risk and what that represents with the secretary. i want to be very clear, though, as you add additional personnel and they are advising lower down the chain, does that put more americans at higher risk? are they closer to the action? >> the iraqis are still in the lead, that doesn't change. lester, americans are at risk today, every single day here. as secretary of defense, i take that more seriously than anything else. i want our troops to be effective, but i want them also to be as safe as possible, consistent with that. but it's very important to do this. because we have to and we will defeat isil, about you but we n
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that done as soon as possible and that means being more aggressive in the moves we make. >> this additional capability they're talking about is specific to the idea of trying to retake mosul, the second largest city in iraq, they've been trying to launch an offensive there for sometime. all of this is meant to prepare the battleground to encircle mosul and at some point, the iraqis would launch a ground war to try and retake that city, chris. >> you know, lester, i thought it was fascinating the interplay between you and the secretary on exposure of our troops. because i know as americans we're all worried about the possibility oot terrible possibility that one of our men or women will be picked up by isis, captured. >> well, you know, we talked recently to the widow of one of the two americans killed in iraq over the last six months. the most recent was just a few weeks ago. a marine staff sergeant, who was killed at a forward -- kind of a firing base, if you will.
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killed by indirect fire from isis forces. so it underscored certainly the risk of americans here. we do know there are special operations who are operating not only in iraq, but in syria. the pentagon does not necessarily call that combat, but we all know what special operations forces do. so there's some parsing of the words here. it's a dangerous neck of the woods and i think that's what the secretary was trying ing ie the point. >> thanks so much, lester holt. watch more of lester's exclusive interview tonight with secretary carter on a special edition of "nightly news" live from the mid east. let's start this hour's 2016 coverage with the republicans and front-runner donald trump. he has a rally in buffalo tonight. jacob rascon is there already. >> reporter: so tonight we expect the biggest new york rally that donald trump will hold, 18,000 people, plus hundreds of protesters. we have of course buffalo, new york state police helping the crowd along. the crowd was just let in, so
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we're not seeing a lot of people out here. but already a couple thousand people inside. we're seeing some protesters show up already. just say "no" to racism, what we usually see, some with bernie signs. that's not unusual. and then we'll come here to the front of the line, where they're letting people in. like i said, 18,000 people they're expecting here. and donald trump has recently changed his message where he only speaks for about 30, 35 minutes, he has localized statistics about unemployment. it will be interesting to see what he says here, because in buffalo, they have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the state. a couple of folks here, so for you, why donald trump over john kasich, over ted cruz? >> personally, i worked really hard to get through college, finished two bachelors degrees in four years, i believe in paying it forward for myself made a big difference.
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and i believe in working hard for your own money. >> i agree 100%. i've worked two, three jobs at one point, you know, just to support myself. and to work so hard and have it given to people who just don't deserve it, or people who don't work or have a work ethic, i think it's a real problem that we have now with entitlement. people feel entitlement and it's just getting out of control and we need somebody to put their foot down and do the right thing. >> let me ask you about some of the polling that we've done, which says that his unfavorability rating is really low, especially among women. that doesn't phase you? >> i lived in new york city for eight years, and i've actually met him twice, personally. and he's a wonderful guy. he's a great guy. i think that speaks volumes, like just from those interactions of meeting him that way. i just think it's time for a change, forget it. >> thanks so much for your time. we hear a lot of that. a lot of people say that even
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though on stage, he may say certain things, they believe deep down he's their dream candidate. chris? >> that's a great interview. you don't get enough of that kind of point of view, not the rich, but the regular people who are conservatives. we don't hear a lot of that on the air, unfortunately. how big a safety margin, of no man's land, to use a military term, between the trump people we just heard from and the critics? because i've been watching these things. it doesn't look like they separate people enough to keep people from fighting with each other. >> reporter: yeah, many times, in fact in new york, we've seen police allow folks to mix together and there has been pushing, shoving, spitting, even punches thrown. but look here, 50, 60, 70 feet in between with gates set up. so here, we're not expecting, even though we'll have bigger crowds than maybe we've ever had, not expecting big clashes here. >> great work, jacob. let's shift now to the ted
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cruz campaign, about an hour and a half from here, in maryland, not far from washington, where he held a town hall this afternoon. hallie jackson is following the campaign for us and joins us now with more. i found an interesting statistic in going over the script today, and one of them is that your guy, the guy you're covering, has to be careful tomorrow because he might get knocked out of actual contention for a first ballot victory? he may not be statistically able to get to 1,237 if he doesn't do very well tomorrow. >> see here's how the math shakes out. if ted cruz picks up a few delegates in new york, as he'sect ahe's expected to do, then he would need about 98% of remaining delegates in order to lock up the nomination. and if trump goes ahead next week, remember, a week from tuesday we have maryland, connecticut, pennsylvania, delaware, if trump does well
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there, it would be mathematically impossible for cruz to win on a first ballot. that's why his campaign is focusing on their delegate strategy. if you had to sum it up right now, keep it close now and then close the deal in cleveland. if donald trump starts to run away with a big delegate lead, if he racks up huge victories in the northeastern states, in indiana on may 3rd and then carries that momentum through california on june 7th, even if trump doesn't get to 1,237, it will be difficult for cruz to make the case that the delegates should come to him. then there's the second strategy, which is to pick up the delegates who may become unbound on a second or third ballot. so it's why you're seeing cruz competing in places like wyoming, where he picked up 14 at-large delegates. they want to drill down on both fronts. it's an uphill battle for cruz over the next maybe eight days.
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you look at the polling. we're here in maryland, not the most visual scene, the rally just ended a bit ago, but cruz is down nearly 30 points to donald trump in the latest polling. he's behind even john kasich here. so it's a challenge for him in the northeastern states, but the cruz team insists they will not concede. one other point too, when it comes to the stop trump movement, we've been chatting with them all along here. but they're talking about where they want to drill down. maryland to them doesn't seem like the most ideal place because kasich and cruz could end up splitting that anti-trump vote. instead, those folks will want to focus on indiana, nebraska, another place where the cruz campaign feels like they could be strong, where it could be obvious that folks are coalescing around one candidate in particular. chris? >> yeah, i think pennsylvania is going to be a tough one for the cruz people. thanks so much, hallie jackson with the cruz campaign. joining us right now for more analysis, rick tower, political analyst and former
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senior communications very the cruz campaign and political reporter for "the washington post." ann, i want you to start with the stakes tomorrow, for the republicans. >> sure. as hallie was suggestion there, the stakes are higher for cruz in many ways than for trump. trump is expected to do very well in new york. it's home ground for him. he's ahead, been ahead for quite a while. expected to do well. the stakes for cruz are, can he do well enough to maintain a plausible argument that he's still got either a chance to catch up, just looking harder and harder to do. or that he could be a viable option -- non-trump option at the convention and going forward. so he needs to stay in it. >> greg, he's not going to win tomorrow because of the new york values line, i think if nothing else. but where are the big states if you're in that campaign? >> i'm looking at indiana, governor mike pence, very
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conservative state. he's doing well in nebraska in organizing. >> and two interesting states, oregon and washington state both have mail-in ballots. oregon is 100% mail-in. so to be organized in oregon, it's not just showing up and throwing a rally. it is having been in the state and organizing those mail-in ballots. it's like a parallel campaign. the cruz campaign has been adept in showing -- >> can you bring that ballot around door to door, or only the applications? >> they can't handle the ballots. they can handle the applications, though. so an organizational effort in those two states will be key. they'll be surprisingly strong in california, i think. >> i agree. >> the former chairman of california, republican party -- >> you guys could -- i keep saying you guys because you're with the campaign, but cruz could win california? >> he could win. that would be a shock, but ron nearing was a former california
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chair and ran for lieutenant governor and already has a grassroots organization there. >> let's talk about what you raised. he's really fighting two wars. one war is to try to get 1,237. the other one is like going to overtime. if the other guy doesn't get it, the ball is in the air, whole new ball game. that game he's already playing, which is to get all the spare delegates that are available to be independent and vote the way they want in the second ballot. >> cruz has to stop trump to get the rec zit number of ballots. if he doesn't stop trump from getting those, then trump will be the nominee. >> it's my favorite metaphor for life. it's the seventh inning, you're playing, you're the phillies, you're down two or three runs and your pitcher, unless you get the other team out for the next three innings, you don't have a prayer. but even if you get them out for the next three innings, you still have to hope the bats show up. so he's hoping for a break, but
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he'll be ready to exploit it. >> there's a version of this happening on the democratic side as well. bernie's game now is, stay in it, look viable. he's not going to -- >> and hope that something happens like an indictment? >> certainly anything can happen in politics. >> sure, it can. including that. anything can happen. by the way, we were talking at lunch with a friend of mine, suppose you get to the democratic convention a week after the republican convention in mid july and there's something out of this investigation on e-mails. i don't know what it is, if it's nothing. and who gets it in hillary has to withdraw? 1 chance in 10 or 50 -- >> joe biden. >> does he jump in or does bernie just claim it? >> that's a huge question. i mean, there's not a -- at this point, there's no, you know, playbook for -- >> there ain't no playbook. >> no. at all. >> it's fascinating. that's why people are talking about this stuff. >> biden would probably want to try, but bernie would have a
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very strong argument at that point that he has been an extraordinarily strong second. and he's not expected to win in new york tomorrow, but he'll probably do pretty well. he's been closing the gap there. >> you can't win the game unless you're at the table. still to come, the polls give hillary clinton a wide lead ahead of tomorrow's primary in new york on the democratic side. it's a different story in the national states. the new nbc poll shows bernie within two points, and i think perhaps in the passing lane, i think, right now. we'll be right back. it's more than the cloud.
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only hours away from new york's primary and both democratic candidates are on the campaign trail today. hillary clinton just wrapped an event in manhattan while bernie sanders will hold a rally on long island city later tonight. clinton has double-digit leads in recent polls. but a new poll shows clinton leading sanders by two points in a national poll. look how close it can get there among democratic primary voters. let's bring in kasie hunt, who is covering the sanders campaign at long island city, new york. where is long island city, new york? >> reporter: it's in queens, chris. it's right across the river. you could probably see the chrysler building behind me. >> so it's right across there, okay. the architecture school is somewhere there. tell me what's going on with the
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campaign you're covering, the clinton campaign. are they confident they'll not be the victims of another upset. >> reporter: i think at this point, both sides feel relatively sure of the overall result. i think the question is more around the margins at this point, chris. i think we're still in territory where if bernie sanders closes this margin more than expected, it could do some harm to the clinton campaign, and the perception at least that he's still very much in this. i think you're going to see the sanders campaign point to that national poll over and over again. a big part of their agreement has been that they would be better to take on trump. i think it may be too little too late, but it's clear sanders has proven he's a capable challenger to hillary clinton at this point and that's being reflected in those numbers. but one thing that's new this afternoon, the sanders campaign accusing the democratic national committee of flouting campaign finance laws because the hillary
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victory fund is paying some staffers and using that committee to convert big donors into small ones. hillary clinton has struggled compared to bernie sanders to raise the small donations. so the sanders campaign, not pleased by what they've seen in public news reports about this. and they're alleging the dnc is rigging the system in hillary clinton's favor and potentially breaking the law. this isn't the first time we've seen the sanders campaign go back and forth with the dnc. it's been a long-running complaint from them that the democratic deck is stacked in her favor and against sanders. chris? >> thanks so much, kasie hunt on long island, and in long island city, thank you so much. it looks good out there. let's turn to kristin welker who is covering the clinton campaign from the city -- or rather normal looking setting compared to outside there. sanders, if they get within
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single digits, they claim victory, but what does it become credible in a way? i think sa if he has a credible race in new york, i think he'll be ahead of her by next week. that's my hunch. what do you think? >> reporter: i think you could be right. there's no doubt the momentum is on senator sanders' side. he has seven victories under his belt. over the weekend, he drew his largest crowd yet, more than 28,000 people to prospect park. but the reality is, if secretary clinton wins by double digits, or if he gets close to double digits, there's going to be the math to contend with. and she is close, if she gets double digits, he would get a 25-point delegate net gain, that would almost put the race out of reach for senator sanders. he'd have to then go on and win 70% of the remaining delegates. so to kasie's point about the
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national poll, there's no doubt it underscores senator sanders' growing strength and popularity among democrats. but is it too little too late? that's the real question. we will be looking at the margins, they'll be critical and will tell the tale about what happens next moving forward. clinton campaign officials are downplaying their chances tomorrow, saying they think that the national poll numbers and the polls here in new york likely exaggerate this race. they do think it's going to be closer. but obviously that's going to be the real key that everyone's looking at. one more point, chris, to the allegations by the sanders campaign. we have reached out to the clinton campaign to get reaction. so far, no reaction, but i'm told they're working on it. we'll get that to you as soon as we get any response. >> i know they're low-balling it, reducing expectation. thanks so much. up next, we'll head to
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clinton's adopted hometown of chappaqua, new york. i've always wanted to know what it looks like. i'm sure it's a leafy suburb of the best kind. we'll be right back. don't let a cracked windshield ruin your plans. trust safelite. with safelite's exclusive "on my way text" you'll know exactly when we'll be there. giving you more time for what matters most. (team sing) ♪safelite repair, safelite replace.♪ wrely on the us postal service?
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xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. let's turn now to chris jansing who is in hillary clinton's adopted town of chappaqua. i can't wait to see this place. what is chappaqua like? >> translator: it >> reporter: it is as you said, a leafy suburb, an hour outside of new york city. but it's a beautiful little downtown. you can see there's the starbucks that bill clinton likes to go to. he only gets decaf. but this is also a town with a lot of local shops. the shop owners, they love the clintons. they've brought in some of the tourism here. i went into the book store, and they told me that bill clinton's books are slightly outselling hillary clinton's books. they go in there, they engage people. they talk -- you remember, chris, when she decided that she
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was going to run for the u.s. senate in 1999, that's when they bought the house in chappaqua, $1.7 million, in part, we're told, because it had a barn that could be converted for the secret service. but they also made a real commitment to get involved in the community. it is interesting, though, that a lot of what you talk to people about here is what you hear about hillary clinton generally. that people say she's nice, she'll have her picture taken. she will engage you if you engage her in conversation. bill clinton, though, you could be sitting in the local coffee shop and he'll come up to you and start a conversation. they talk about the differences between the two of them. largely very popular here. there are also some other celebrities who live here. ben stiller, the actor. vanessa williams. andrew cuomo, the governor, also has a house here. i ran into his security detail at lang's deli this morning. he was up in buffalo with bill clinton, campaigning for
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hillary. this isn't the first time -- i know you love history, chris. this is not the first time that chappaqua could produce a nominee for president of the united states. season 72, horace greely, who as you may recall, got his clock cleaned by ulysses s. grant and was said to be so despondent that three weeks later, before the electoral college met, he actually died. hillary clinton's prospects here, far better. this is a democratic town. she's expected to win here handily. chris? >> i want to salute the town for having a book store. because they're a dwindling commodity in this country. >> reporter: a local book store. independent, and it's a good one. >> and i always liked ben stiller. glad to see he's hanging around up there. i think you got a great beat today, chris jansing. thanks for doing this. more politics and hometown
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pride coming up. donald trump's life began in queens, new york, one of the boroughs and bernie sanders' life began in brooklyn, home of the erstwhile dodgers. after the break, we'll hear how their hometowns are preparing for tuesday's primary. as you'll see, when shoppers add an item to their jet carts, they automatically shrink the prices of millions of other products. very impressive.
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donald trump is the only presidential candidate born and raised and still living in new york city. so let's go to jacob at the subway station near donald trump's childhood home in queens. what have you heard about those? well, first of all, let's be fair. are the voters in the neighborhood the same as the voters he grew up with? are they a different ethnic group, a different political persuasion? >> reporter: it's changed. >> are we going to get a judgment of his peers? go ahead. >> reporter: easy answer is no. but i hope you'll still want to watch my package. it's changed here quite a bit since donald trump was a resident.
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his formative years he was living in this neighborhood. this was the subway station, the f train that goes from here all the way into manhattan, that donald trump would take. he said it was the reason that he developed a love for manhattan. he would ride the train 13 stops from here to rockefeller center. so it's a perfect place for me to talk to you about this story. but i want to show you a little bit about my exploration of jamaica states. it was developed in the early 1900s, donald trump's father moved the family there and built homes there in the '50s. this station opened and the voters today, as you said, are very different than the people that lived next to donald trump many years ago. take a look at this. when you think of donald trump, you think about giant manhattan skyscrapers. not a house like this in the suburban part of queens, new york. but trump grew up in this house when he was a kid in new york city. that's why we're here in his neighborhood, to see what these
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folks think about his candidacy for president? >> you group up here? >> yeah. >> you gonna vote for him on tuesday? >> not at all. >> reporter: do you know who grew up in this neighborhood? >> besides myself? >> reporter: let me give you a clue. he's running for president. >> yeah some say he grew up in jamaica estates. how do you feel about that? >> well are i'm an assemblywoman. i'm not supporting donald trump. >> reporter: who are you supporting? >> hillary clinton. >> reporter: who are your constituents? >> a lot of first-generation immigrants. >> reporter: you think he's got a shot here on tuesday? >> no. >> reporter: you know donald trump grew up around the corner? >> yeah, he did. >> reporter: are you going to vote for donald trump? >> hell no. >> reporter: if donald trump ever took the subway, this is
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likely the one he took. do you live here in jamaica? >> yes. >> reporter: are you voting on tuesday? >> i have to. >> reporter: who are you voting for? >> donald trump. >> reporter: what about donald trump? >> he's a nice guy, but i don't vote for him. >> reporter: do you know who grew up in this neighborhood? >> nicki minaj and 50 cent. >> reporter: i didn't know that. how about donald trump? >> oh, i don't like him, but i didn't know that he was from here. >> reporter: so you like nicki minaj and 50 cent better? >> for sure. >> reporter: we got to get on the train before it gets out of here. in fairness to donald trump, he'll probably clean up in a lot of the queens neighborhoods. we'll be in republican strongholds tomorrow, maybe the
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only places that will be voting for donald trump en masse. and as the train departs and i head towards rockefeller center, i want to throw it back to you. >> i want to warn you that jay walking is patented by jay leno. but you're doing a great job. >> reporter: i know. how about jake walking? >> you've covered yourself. i was waiting for you to find a republican. i guess no luck. good luck on the train there. on the presidential campaign trail, it started in a brooklyn apartment for bernie sanders. cal perry is outside the very building where the senator himself grew up. how do the people feel there? i know they remember bernie. cal? >> reporter: yeah, really. and they remember the dodgers. we're outside brooklyn college, show you the main library building here. this is where bernie sanders went to school in 1960, three years after the dodgers left. bernie sanders was here. this is where people joke that
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he found his socialist roots. we spoke to a childhood friend of his. take a listen. >> for 18 years, this was the center of his life, this neighborhood was the center of his life. we were all basically street kids. we play -- once you're 6, 7 years old, you go out by yourself. there were parents on the block maybe sitting outside. so there was always somebody keeping an eye on all of the kids. and it was safe. >> reporter: now, he never wanted to come to school here, chris. he always wanted to go to the university of chicago. but in 1960, his mother had a congenitive heart failure, heart disease, so he had to come to school here. that's why he was here for one semester. all his childhood friends are hoping he'll do well tomorrow, but i think there's a sense that realism is kicking in. i think people have seen the polls and are expecting hillary to win pretty big.
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this is a heavily jewish area and you may think that bernie sanders would carry areas like this, but it's that relationship with the jewish community that is a bit touch and go at times. there was that stunning back and forth in thursday's debate about israel's, as he put it, overreaction during the gaza war. so that's kind of an interesting conversation here in brooklyn, how certainly the more conservative jewish neighborhoods have stuck with hillary. they know hillary. that's the ground game we always hear from the hillary campaign. and bernie's message hasn't resonated with them. but certainly here on a college campus it's a message that resonates. the question is, how will he do in the outer areas? >> it's important that successful people in many lines of career, who came out of that college. barbara boxer went there, the senator from california went to brooklyn college. it's an amazing school. >> reporter: and at his high school, senator chuck schumer went there.
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ruth bader ginsburg was a cheerleader at his high school. i asked one of his childhood friends, what is it about this high school? he said, the great depression had hit, we had overqualified teachers, so people got an amazing public education here. >> i so agree. i could talk about that in ethnic terms, but it's so true. some of the people who were so intent on intellectualism were teaching in high schools. what a benefit, what a premium to have had teachers like you had in the '30s. was that madison high school? is that called madison? >> james madison high school. that's exactly it. we expect maybe chuck schumer will swing by. >> yeah, he went there too. thanks so much. well, this time tomorrow, polls in new york will have been open for hours and we're likely to be waiting for our first release of exit polling this time tomorrow. but what's really at stake tomorrow? could the momentum ted cruz gained with the wyoming delegate win come undone over the next 24
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hours? joining us now usa today's senior political reporter heidi prez ba. you probably heard my closing arguments on the show different nights, and you're sort of a -- what do you call it? an audience that gets locked in, because you're on the show. but it seems to me, new york still has the big media mega phone. when you play for the new york rangers, any sports team in new york, everybody knows who you are. i get the feeling if trump has a blow-out tomorrow, it's going to have oomph all across the country. let's start with that one. >> well, definitely, and it's not just because of the mega phone, chris. it's because of the math. new york is kind of considered a barometer for the rest of the eastern seaboard which is where the next contests are going to be hosted. he's enjoying similarly high margins in places like connecticut and maryland. so in many ways, this will put to the test whether those polls are accurate.
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it's also a closed primary, which hasn't benefitted him in the past. so if he's able to maintain numbers, it will be a barometer for the rest of the northeast. >> let's talk about hillary clinton and bernie sanders. we call them by their nicknames, bernie and hillary. bernie is passing hillary. you can see the pattern. he's two points down now nationally. you can see he's in the passing lane. if he comes in close in new york, within six or seven points, does that keep his momentum going, or does he have to be even closer? >> i think anything under double digits is going to be definitely considered at least a symbolic victory for him. if you talk to the number crunchers and the people who are paying attention to the delegate math, they say this race hasn't been competitive for weeks, chris, and this won't change that, even if there's a narrow victory for clinton. but i think it will certainly embolden him and embolden his supporters to plant their flag in pennsylvania. and we'll see that as kind of
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another big test. but bringing back to the basics and the numbers, still highly suggests that hillary clinton is marching steadily towards this nomination. >> and just as new york is the tent pole in the republican side, it's also on the democratic side. my hunch is if hillary clinton does well in new york, she'll do well in pennsylvania, maryland, you know, connecticut, and new jersey. she'll win the region. >> it is similar in terms of looking at the polls on both sides of the race at this point. because she's also, like you accurately point out, leading by similar margins in those states. and she'll be able to finally kind of put this to bed. as you know, she's been wanting to land that knockout blow to bernie sanders and she thought she did so in ohio. and then he marched on with this string of victories in the smaller caucus states. so i think she's hoping that new york will accomplish what ohio didn't, both symbolically, and in terms of the numbers. >> there's a -- i could say
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nastiness, there's a sharpness, let's use that as a better word, a sharpness to sanders' assault on hillary these days. he's hitting at very personal targets, her taking of the goldman sachs speaking money, the $600,000. calling that judgment. it looks to me like a character shot. he keeps hitting her on iraq. after all the years, he still pounds her on iraq. i don't think these are areas they'll come together and hold hands after the election, because he's saying she's wrong, she's bad even, on making these decisions and they're frontal. he doesn't look to be softening his attack, it is a sharp attack, even in a race where it looks like he probably can't overtake her in delegate strength. >> everybody's assuming that that will be what happens, that they'll come together, because that's what's happened in the past. and chris, i actually went back and looked at the numbers from 2008, and the percentage of voters who said they'd never vote for barack obama who were
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hillary clinton loyalists is about the same as what it is right now in terms of bernie people saying they wouldn't vote for hillary. but the difference, and hillary has been making this argument on the trail, that she got in the trenches and encouraged her people, her voters, to go over to his side. i think that's a really legitimate question mark, whether he's going to really put his skin in the game and go to the mat for her. >> so well said. because bernie's people are younger, a lot of them, they're not seasoned voters. this is their first time in many cases. they're not democrats in terms of their identity. >> and they're hostile to her. look what happened in san francisco, with them throwing dollar bills at her motorcade. i talked to them on the trail in places like new hampshire. it's the anger that her people have always told me, we don't have a problem with bernie. but his people really have a
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problem with hillary and that's something he's got to play a role in changing if they want to bring everybody together. >> i'm not sure i like throwing those dollars around, in a city with a lot of homeless. it seems deeply disrespectful. anyway, straight ahead -- thanks, heidi. could the president's immigration policy be heading toward a 4-4 split in the supreme court? it could easily be 4-4. we'll head to the high court right after this. u are working a and your doctor to maintain your health. because in 5 days, 10 hours and 2 minutes you are going to be 67. and on that day you will walk into a room where 15 people will be waiting... 12 behind the sofa, 2 behind the table and 1 and a half behind a curtain. family: surprise! but only one of them will make a life long dream come true. great things are ahead of you when your health is ready for them. at humana, we can help you with a personalized plan for your health for years to come.
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a divided supreme court heard arguments over president obama's executive actions on immigration today. lower courts have blocked the implementation of the president's plan that could shield more than four million people from deportation. a win for the president should allow him -- would allow him to begin enforcing the measures before he leaves office. for more, let's turn to nbc news justice correspondent pete williams from the supreme court. pete, thanks for joining us. well, explain what exactly is at stake here. >> reporter: as the president's program announced in november of 2014 that would allow roughly of the 11 million people that are here illegally, a large number of them, up to say five million of them, who have children in the united states, that are u.s. citizens, to stay for up to three years, and that could be renewed. what the administration says, it's a matter of enforcement
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priority, that they don't have the money to deport 11 million people who are here illegally, so they'll say to the criminals and the terrorists, and say to the others, we're never going to get to you. you're here, you might as well stay, you can get a work permit and pay your taxes. that's what the president announced, but 26 states led by texas challenged it and it's never gone into effect. basically today, there were two questions. one is, does texas, and do these other 25 states, have the right to sue in the first place? and if they do, is the administration legally entitled to do this, or as the states say, does the president not have the authority to do this on his own? does he need permission from congress? those are the two questions. and frankly, i didn't count five votes on either of those questions. i didn't count five votes to say texas does or doesn't have the right to sue. i didn't count five votes on the merits of the case either. so if there is a 4-4 tie on
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those questions, then nothing really here happens. there's no change. the lower court ruling remains in effect that puts a hold on the program. president obama would not be able to enforce it while he's still in the white house. now, that's how it appeared. the hard part is to guess what's going to happen in the weeks when the justices talk about this on their own. they seem to be going out of their way to avoid 4-4 ties. look what happened just a couple of weeks ago after hearing the argument about whether religiously affiliated groups have to protest contraceptive coverage. that appeared to be a tie. then the court came out and said, what if we did this, what if we made changes? so it looks like it's tied at this point, but that doesn't necessarily mean that's how the decision is going to come out. i couldn't guess what the decision is going to be, based on this apparent tie. >> what about the chatter out there among court watchers that the chief justice will recuse himself from this question of
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texas's standing in this case? >> reporter: yeah, the theory that chief justice roberts, hoping to avoid a split will simply say that texas and the other states don't have standing. i saw no sign of that today. as a matter of fact, he was the most aggressive questioner of don verely, the solicitor general, the guy who argues these cases for the administration. so i didn't see any sign the chief justice was looking for that off ramp. there was some discussion here about whether a very slight wording change could be made in the president's memorandum that announced this policy that might make it okay within the eyes of the justices, that it was within the president's powers. that's one possible way it could come out. but if that's going to be the outcome, i didn't see the clear path to it today. >> isn't it great to be working out of doors in in weather?
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>> reporter: finally, yes. one nice day here. >> everybody on their high school trip comes to washington it the this time of year and goes away thinking, what a great place to live. the weather is perfect. >> reporter: it's like this all the time, come and visit washington! [ laughter ] >> thanks so much. now here's hampton pearson with the cnbc market wrap. >> the dow topping 18,000 for the first time since july. the final numbers on wall street today, the dow closing up by 106 points, the s&p gaining 13, the nasdaq rising by 21 points. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. uh oh. oh. henry! oh my. good, you're good. back, back, back. (vo) according to kelley blue book, subaru has the highest resale value of any brand. again.
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well, the battle for new york is not limited of course to the five boroughs as we're seeing a real push from the campaigns on the upstate vote. former president bill clinton rallied in buffalo this morning, and tonight donald trump will rally there ahead of tomorrow's primary. msnbc's tony dokoupil is there for us and joins me now for the upstate vote. tony, tell me, for the people who don't know upstate new york, how it differs from manhattan, for example. >> reporter: well, it's largely republican. 70% of the republican voters are in the upstate area. and also on the democratic side, it's deadlocked. hillary and bernie are 50/50 in the polls right now. i'm standing in the buffalo niagara medical campus, the innovation center. 17,000 jobs expected here by 2017. and hillary clinton had a big role in making that happen. it brought a lot of young people to the area, but here's the thing, they're not necessarily
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voting for hillary clinton. this is derek and adam. neither of them are resigned to a hillary vote. you're undecided. >> right, i'm undecided. >> reporter: you met hillary clinton the other day. >> yes, i did. >> reporter: you're in a building that she helped build. how come you're not on her side? >> she helped this area, what she's doing helped pave the way for what i'm doing, if she didn't plant the seed funding to help this building grow, i would be back in brooklyn. but she's big on minority and women and funding sources, which is huge for me. but a lot of things that bernie is noted for, so it's one of those things, it's going to get down to the wire for me. >> reporter: 24 hours to go. adam, you work in a building that hillary clinton helped build. the economy in buffalo, doing quite well. >> rebounding, yeah. >> reporter: and you're coming from a trump rally? >> i can't believe it, but i'm
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voting for donald trump. i think it's the year of the outsider. we had a businessman come in and shake it up. he's a little bit more moderate, but i'm definitely a trump supporter. >> reporter: if it ain't broke, don't fix it. young people like yourself are moving back for the first time in decades. >> no, it is true. but i think bernie, he has a lot of good ideas, but i don't think democrats know how to pay for them. i think trump has the business perspective. hope he does well in the general. >> reporter: thanks a lot. so it's real uncertainty here. >> i think this is great reporting. i love these voices of the people. the undecided guy, when is he going to decide? midnight? this is getting close, isn't it? >> reporter: he's meeting with friends tonight to talk. >> oh, okay, have a pow wow. >> reporter: to talk it through.
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call it in to msnbc tonight. i'm chris matthews. "mtp daily" from brooklyn actually starts right now. ♪ if it's monday, it's our brand-new national poll out right now, as one of the pollsters puts it, the republicans have a party problem, and the democrats have a candidate problem. this is "mtp daily" live from brooklyn. and good evening to you, welcome to "mtp daily," we are coming to you live tonight from the brooklyn bridge. it's fitting because we are now just over 24 hours away from polls closing here in new york. and msnbc's primary night coverage officially kicking off with chuck at 5:00 p.m. eastern
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