tv All In With Chris Hayes MSNBC April 19, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm PDT
welcome back at the top of the hour. a view of lower manhattan. the brooklyn bridge in the foreground. the night of the new york primary, which in the days as it approached, felt more serious and consequential than merely one state's primary. tonight's results have borne that out. you see the blue atop the empire state building. that is because the second call of the night was for the democrats. it was red earlier. this is why it's in blue. at 39 minutes past the closing of the polls, hillary clinton,
our projected winner in new york, and not by a small amount, either. there's the current percentage of the vote in. on the republican side at the closing of polls, not only did we project donald trump, we projected a substantial victory for him, which has come true. john kasich in second, ted cruz in third place. that's been the events of the evening. brian williams and rachel maddow, by the way. and we watched both of the winners tonight, the democrat and the republican, speak in terms of, you know, we'll go on to win this thing, and to the vanquished, we're sorry. the difference is, the sanders' campaign, right here in river city, in this studio later this evening, laid out their path to the nomination. >> this was a remarkable thing that happened here on this broadcast. you think about what just happened tonight in new york. the sanders' campaign lapped the clinton campaign in terms of
spending. they spent over $5.5 million trying to win new york. for context, nobody on the republican side within spent $500,000. they doubled the clinton campaign. sanders' campaign was hard-out in this state. it felt like a home state contest for him. they have lost and lost by a lot. the sanders campaign had gone into new york not only saying they would win here, but said their previous losses and the reason they were so far behind was off a the conservative deep south. those were the kind of places you should expect bernie sanders to lose, but not new york. and to have the bernie sanders campaign manager come here with steve kornacki and walk him through how they think the nomination is still theirs, i had to idea how he was going to explain it. what steve got out of him was absolutely remarkable. i think this is going end to up being the story of all of tomorrow's news. i would love to go back to steve on this now and give us your
reaction to what jeff weaver just told you. >> i asked him at the end, i said, if we get through this entire process, the entire primary protest, june 7th -- well, the district of columbia goes a little after that on the democratic side. if you get through it and have lost in the pledged delegates and you have not won the popular vote. you add up all the votes in these different states, do you stop then and say, it's time to unify the party, or do you spend the summer trying to pick off these super delegates, these elected officials and party leaders who are automatically voters in the democratic convention, who are overwhelmingly already saying they're for hillary clinton. do you still keep this campaign going and try to pick them off? and he said, we will still try to pick them off. it is -- we talk about the scale of the challenge for bernie sanders here, just trying to overcome the delegate math that we have laid out. he wouldn't quite say this. i understand why a campaign doesn't want to say, every state to come is must win, but pretty much, every state to come is
must win for bernie sanders. not just must win, but must win in a landslide. in some of these states, it would be in a landslide that's kind of unimaginable, given how sanders has performed in different renals of the country so far. nonetheless, the scale of that challenge is as steep as anything i can remember in politics. what bernie sanders is up against right now. if he can't pull that off and if he doesn't pass her in the popular vote, i don't even know how to begin to estimate the scale of the challenge of trying to get super delegates who are already for hillary clinton to disregard the delegate count and disregard the popular vote and say, now, at the end of all of this, i'm going to flip to bernie sanders. that the only slight parallel i can think of in history, 1984, gary hart got to the end of the primaries against walter mondale, he had lost the popular vote and was behind in delegates and he said, welcome to overtime. he spent the summer trying to flip super delegates. he didn't get any. if gary hart didn't have any luck back then, i'm not sure bernie sanders will have any
this time around. >> steve kornacki, thanks. i want to get reaction to the interview that steve led from chuck todd. chuck, what are we to make of this? >> well, to jeff weaver's defense -- and by the way, i thought, let's give the sanders campaign some credit. they put their money where their mouth was. they said new york was must win for them and i that acted like it. the campaign acted like it. they threw everything they could into new york to pull this off. so this was, i sort of take my hat off to campaigns, you know, sometimes bloviate about how much they're going to contest something. they made every effort. they tried to win a state they knew was an uphill battle, because they knew that was the only way to change the dynamic. now, that didn't happen. one thing to think about that jeff told steve, when steve posed that terrific question, if you don't have the pledged delegates, are you still going to do this? and he said, that's our
strategy. and then he said, at this time. that's the mini hedge. you know, things could change tomorrow. things could change in a week. my guess is the sanders campaign is not going to be in any giving up mode tomorrow, but if they can't win three of five next week. you heard jeff say, pennsylvania, rhode island, connecticut, at a minimum they need to win three of those five to even start talking about this again. i don't think they can do it, but that's what it takes to make this remotely realistic. >> chuck todd, that's the democratic race for now. let's talk republicans and back to steve at the board. the big question on trump tonight, public polling had him as the victor going into this, was the delegate math. what'd he emerge with? >> the dream for trump tonight would be to get all 95. let's break this down quickly. he's hit 50 pact statewide, gets 14 for that.
then, 27 kopcongressional districts, three delegates each. every one he breaks 50%, he gets all three delegates. that's his goal. the votes are still coming in. this pocket, starts in albany, all of these districts right here, he is right around the -- i hope this doesn't look like anything -- i got in trouble last week. >> it looks like a boot. >> it's a shoe. >> he's right at the 50% line. if he clears 50% in these districts, it's three in each one of them. if he falls short, he'll lose a delegate to john kasich in these. also down here, new york city, there are a couple problem areas for him. one, there's a district that straddles manhattan and brooklyn. he's leading by a point right now over kasich. they're both well under 50. there's a second one on the upper east side. he's leading only by a few votes from john kasich. and charlie rangel's district, 15 votes is the difference between trump currently getting
all three delegates or falling and losing one to john kasich. bottom line on this, it looks like the range of possible outcomes tonight on the low end for donald trump, worst case, he walks away with 86. best case, he walks away with 93 and 95. >> wow. >> that's incredible. >> people have been saying heading into this, if donald trump hits 80, it's a huge night for him. his worst-case scenario is now 86. just to be clear, steve, is it pretty obvious at this point that this is going to be a total washout for ted cruz? >> yeah, ted cruz, i think he cleared 20% in the tenth district there, a few others, but not in the running for any of these delegates. >> thank you, steve. >> steve kornacki at the big board. probably all of it is a good jumping off point to go to the group we informally call our road warriors. because this is a new york contest, the good part of that for us is our correspondents who have been covering all of these campaigns tend to spend rare moments here in new york. among them, katy tur, in off the road with the trump campaign. katy, start us off.
>> hey, there, brian. last time you saw us, we were underneath the brooklyn bridge. and if steve kornacki looks different, it's because we have swapped him with jacob soboroff. >> it's a face swap. i am steve kornacki and need to go back to the big board. >> i don't know how it was for you on the trail tonight. well, kristen, you were the only one with the candidate tonight, but the tone with donald trump tonight was so much more -- so much different than what i'd seen. just a couple of weeks ago, he came out and he was gracious in his campaign speech. it was really short and concise. he didn't call senator cruz cruz lyin' ted, he called him senator cruz, which is new. >> very polite. >> and he didn't go after secretary clinton either. >> and he also stayed on message, talking about a rigged system. >> you seem shocked. >> i am sort of shocked. we've seen this trump 2.0 so many times now. do you think that's why? >> i do.
and the intrigue behind the scenes, certainly it's a little bit more fascinating to those who have been on the road, because what you saw at the beginning of the night is cory lewandowski came down and spoke to the press before this victory speech. he does not do that. he never does that. he doesn't come down and hold gaggles. he's very closed-lipped and doesn't like to talk to the press at all, unless it's under his circumstances. and after that, after donald trump spoke, paul manafort came over and did the same thing. >> can i ask you a question? does it feel like a confident change? watching from the outside and watching what you guys do on a daily basis, does it feel like a self-conscious decision by the campaign, where it feels a little awkward to them to be acting in this new way. >> yes and no. donald trump was on stage and said something to the effect of, the press wants to talk about me changing things, but it's really just a reorganization. cory lewandowski a little bit earlier said, we're growing, baby, in a very confident way.
and paul manafort said, no, no, no, this is normal, this is what happens. but it isn't that normal. in some ways, yes, campaigns are always going to expand, but this is happening in a very obvious way, at least behind the scenes. >> what's interesting is a new type of tone from donald trump. it's a brand-new speech from dra ted cruz. he came out in philadelphia and said, yes, we will. he's hitting this note of empowerment and inspiration, which is totally different for him as he's hoping to move into that new phase. and for secretary clinton,s a. >> she was completely energized tonight. i see tonight as a tale of two front-runners. both of them exceeded expectations. both of them speaking within just blocks of each other. i think three blocks of each other. he spoke with sinatra in the backdrop. secretary clinton took the stage with jay-z. but guess what? they had a very similar message. this race is just about over. you heard secretary clinton say
that, essentially, it's time for uni unity. donald trump said, it's hard to see mathematically -- >> he did say, mathematically, it basically is impossible or nearly impossible for ted cruz to win the nomination on its own. that's their message. ted cruz is trying to steal away this election. this election should be coming from the voters. that's who should be deciding. and not these closed-door dealings. >> at the ent of the day, they still need to go rack up all these delegates. as a deputyized delegate hunter, i will say, it's these unbound delegates. they're still looking after these guys. it's still strategically the same message, just being delivered in a different way. >> one thing we've learned is this movement to stop trump is so disorganized and all over the place, it's starting to potentially become a fairy tale if they can't get it together. for him to have, worst-case, 86 delegates out of new york, best
case, 93 to 95, that's a huge number. more than we expected. >> so the question becomes, if you're not hillary clinton and you're not donald trump, what is your path forward? how do you look ahead and what's the path -- >> your path forward if you're ted cruz is a contested convention. >> so they believe out of pennsylvania they could get a couple dozen. they think they might pick up six in maryland. that's the best scenario there. and then they turn the corner to indiana and california as well. the new magic number, by the way, i spoke with some cruz campaign aides, 1,200. they believe the further below 1,200 donald trump is, the better ted cruz will do in a contested convention. >> funny how that number keeps creeping up a little bit. >> i think it's entirely clear we'll have a real contested convention. i think there's a lot of hoopla going on about it right now. i think there's a lot of wig talk about how they want to stop him. but when push comes to shove, when you get to the convention, and if donald trump has more
than 1,100 delegates, it's a very hard argument to say he shouldn't be the nominee. >> so it does -- what does a real contested convention? >> maybe we should have kornacki here and not jacob soboroff to explain it. >> our high school friends are going to get upset about that. i think a real contested convention would be going to a second ballot and ted cruz doing well on a second ballot, potentially a third ballot, fourth ballot. who knows -- >> i've been talking to a number of republican resources who say, if he gets within 100 points, it's going to be very tough to make that argument, to have a contested convention. and i think one of the big questions on the democratic side is, and you heard secretary clinton speak to this tonight, what does senator sanders do? how does he effectively, and we've been using this term throughout the day, how does he land this plane? this has been such an ugly race in recent days. on the democratic side, and the
clinton campaign very forcefully saying, it's time for him to start to scale back. it's my impression he's not going to, but i wonder what your impression is. >> he had this very bizarre sort of evening. i sort of wondered if there was something going on . he flies to vermont and lands in burlington where they announce they're going to have a planeside gaggle, it's unclear with whom, because there are no reporters, no cameras traveling. and our intrepid embed, also not with him. and so part of me wondered, oh, did this night go differently? but what we heard from senator sanders is the same thing we've been hearing from him, they're going to go forward. chuck todd just talked about how they went all in in new york. it sounds like they'll go all in in pennsylvania, as well. they're talking about some of these voter problems in brooklyn. and what you said is dead on. the question is whether or not he's going to ultimately decide ether he'll embrace the rule he's created for himself. and it's a significant one.
he's shown a lot and demonstrated a lot about what the party is, but if he ends it act r rry moanously, i think th negative for both sides. >> and we've spent so much time talking about the young voters who are so energized behind senator sanders, what will they do if senator clinton is facing off against donald trump. >> is there any chance, any chance at all that they would run on the same ticket? >> i don't think they would run on the same ticket, but i've been talking to clinton campaign officials about would they bring him in in any way, shape, or form. it's not clear. but they want him to -- >> what would that look like? >> i think they wouldn't mind having him on the campaign trail. >> and i don't think they would mind having him ask people for money. >> and with that, we'll toss it back. we love to have these conversations when we're just sitting here privately. so great to share it with all of you -- >> what do you mean, we're not private? >> kristen welker, thank you. we're duty bound to tell you all, get rest and nourishment while you're here in new york.
and the quirk of kasie hunt being able to be with us, because her candidate flew to burlington, we're at least happy to have you here with us. kacey, hallie jackson, katy tur, jacob soboroff, kristen welker, thank you. ladies and gentlemen, our road warriors here to refuel ever so briefly in new york. chris matthews will be joining that group in the next hour. for us, a quick break. our coverage resumes on the other side.
we are back on this night of the new york primary, 20 minutes after the hour, these were the results. on the left, that was an early call, at poll closings, we projected the winner by quite a margin. >> that is a huge margin. just, that's more than lapping the guy who came in second, to win with a 35-point margin, at least at this point, something that may approach that toward the end, that's just, that's epic. >> john kasich and the man who
talked about new york values is a new york third tonight. ted cruz. hillary clinton, the projected winner of the democrats. much discussion over the margin with bernie sanders, what this now does to bernie sanders and the state of the democratic race. rachel and i are back with our friends, nicole wallace and eugene and i want to let you guys toss this around. the optics of what we've witnessed tonight, not only the discussion here in the studio, but the optics of sanders getting on a plane, leaving the press corps here. it's his charter, he's entitled to do what he wants, and going home to burlington, right now at this point. >> i would lump it together with the optics of ted cruz giving a speech in the 8:00 hour, and my, what a difference two weeks makes. two weeks ago tonight, we were talking about their whopper victories in wisconsin. i have been on both ends of
this. and to pay it back to chuck todd, i think he was right. you've got to give jeff weaver credit for leaving himself a little bit of room. the truth about the sanders campaign is that they probably don't know what happens next. i'm guessing there are some conversation happening. and i'm just guessing. as you said, i'm an outsider observing this democratic race. but i would bet that that's not the only idea about how to proceed. and when you're on a losing campaign, you don't know exactly what happens next, but that is a losing campaign tonight. >> i think it's really clear that they don't know exactly what the next step is, because we heard jeff weaver talk about essentially fighting to the better end, right? and even if they don't get the popular vote and even if they don't catch up in pledged delegates, they're going to try to flip the super delegates, somehow, which actually won't happen. >> which is an insider game. >> exactly. >> exactly. it's not a political revolution.
at the same time, tad devine, the other chief strategist for the sanders' campaign, told reporters tonight, you know, we're going to have to, we're going to see how we'll do next week. >> the quote was, we'll see how it does next week and then direct quote from tad devine, assess where we are. >> exactly. >> which is very different than what jeff weaver just told us here. >> but they do represent the two potential off-ramps for a campaign that -- these are smart people inside campaigns. candidates surround themselves with the best and the brightest people in each party. and these are probably the two best options. >> one is, we're taking an off-ramp and one is not. i think the reason there's been such a huge reaction. the reason the name that jeff we're without a hashtag started trending nationally on twitter as soon as that interview wrapped up here with steve kornacki is because what weaver is talking about is wab yeah, it's a contested convention on
the republican side, it's a contested convention on the democratic side. and they will press that advantage and fight to deny hillary clinton the nomination that she leads for, with even if they're behind in states and in the vote and in the delegates -- >> and press it on the basis of polling that suggests that he might do better than hillary clinton against a republican opponent. that seems to be what this was going to be about. >> i think the reason that it feels different than your average candidate spin, though, coming from jeff weaver -- every candidate, we were talking about this in the break. nobody ever says, oh, yeah, i would love to be vice president. nobody ever says, here's my plan for when i'm going to lose. you always want to project confidence, and never talk about the hypothetical. >> and you don't get ahead of your candidate. >> absolutely. but the reason why this feels like not just spin and not an empty threat from jeff weaver about the sanders campaign, is because the sanders campaign is made of money. because they raise $40 million a month, month after month now, defeating everybody else in
terms of their individual small donor donations. they have so much money and an infinite source of money from their small dollar donors, they could absolutely roll this through july if they want to. >> but to what end. >> that's why democrats are pediatr freaking out about that interview, to what end? >> for the democratic party, the worst thing would be using all that money to essentially tear down hillary clinton with negative advertising. that would be the worst thing. not necessarily the worst thing if they stay in the race up to the convention, depending on how they campaign. >> in our newsroom joining us, watching and listening to all of this is lawrence o'donnell. as i was saying all cycle long, democrats have said, well, at least unlike the republicans, we won't have a big mess at our convention? >> they probably won't, despite what jeff weaver said, they probably won't have a big mess at their convention. but i would like a second to put
a jm election perspective on what happened in the state of new york tonight. donald trump is on his way to finishing third to bernie sanders in total votes cast. hillary clinton is on her way to winning more votes than all of the votes cast for all of the republican candidates combined. this was a night where it could be made very clear to the republican party th, new york i not in play in may. this was a very clear message about new york in the general election. >> lawrence, i think one of the mitigating factors in my view would be that this was a closed primary on both sides, and at least from donald trump's perspective, the argument he's making is about people that weren't allowed to vote today. you're probably right, new york is never in play for republicans. we never highlight it in our presentations to donors. and it usually isn't.
but i think one wild card might be if everyone is allowed to vote, i think that trump is still a question mark. >> well, you know, look, the trump campaign in this general election, this is not a team that's been in new york before. if hillary clinton is the nominee, she's won statewide twice before as a senator. this campaign followed the model of her senate campaigns in so many ways. and so, look, tonight is very, very, very big win on the democratic side for hillary clinton. a really big win. and in terms of the sanders slope from here, if there is one, and if there is an exit from this campaign, this is a very emotionally based campaign. this is not a campaign that can end suddenly in one night. and remember those $27 donors. bernie sanders, if he is going to exit the campaign, has to find a glide path that is
acceptable to them, that feels right to them. all those donors that he has in california, for example, what is the deliberation within the sanders campaign about keeping their votes alive, letting them have an election day in june that matters to them? even if the sanders campaign sees by the beginning of june that they don't have a real way to this nomination. even if they see that, they may want to stay in this, basically as long as hillary clinton did in 2008, which wasn't june. >> we've talked about the power of repetition and the power of marketing all this cycle. and for all those people who can instantly recite make america great again, build a wall, who's going to pay for the wall, mexico, there's also a $27 dollar donor for all of those who have watched a sanders event. quick break for us. we're back with our team after this.
. back with the results of the new york primary tonight, i would not blame the republicans for asking for equal time. the empire state has remained bathed in blue since the announcement of hillary clinton's victory on the democratic side. it wasn't red for long in celebration of donald trump's victory over said contest. you hear a lot about the word "path." path to the nomination, path to
anything ending in numbers. 1,237 is the republican path and a lot of talk tonight and prior to this about how donald trump gets there. that's why steve kornacki is at the board. >> let's take a look. after wisconsin, it seems like such a long time ago now, the conventional wisdom is, that's it, we're going to an open convention. but donald trump really does have a path to get this thing during the primaries, to hit that magic numbers. so we've been keeping you up to tabs on what the delegate count in new york looks like if they stopped everything right now, he would get 90. that's going to put him coming out of tonight at 846. remember, trying to get to 1,237. what you're seeing here is what's up next week. we know that donald trump issed le leading in all of these states. 17 in pennsylvania. the 17 are winner take all. and the primary next week,
connecticut, if he can clear 50% statewide, he can take all 28 of those. rhode island's very proportional. could be one of trump's strongest states in the country, not going to get 19 delegates out of there. but let's say he could add from the things i just circled, he could easily add 100 next week. he could be sitting at 946 when we finish the month of april. 946. let's play that forward. in may and june, trump starts with 946. we go indiana early may. tough to read. no polling out there. you could make a case for trump or cruz in that state. let's say trump loses, wins only three congressional districts in indiana and that puts him up to 955. west virginia looks really strong. delegates are complicated, but let's give him 30. puts him up to 935. washington proportional, oregon proportional. nebraska is winner take all. let's say that's a cruz state. trump's only getting delegates out of those two states.
that would put him at 1021. we go to june 7th. winner take all, new jersey, looks really good for donald trump. that would sit him at 1072. new mexico, let's say he takes 12 out of there. 1084. montana, winner-take-all, let's say cruz there. and california, the big wild card. three delegates for every district you win. let's say trump gets 121 out of california. look at this. look at what that would do. if he did that, he'd be short. you'd say, 1205, he's short, open convention. remember what i said. circle pennsylvania. this is the key. and i think this is the biggest single story right now in the republican race. east 54 in pennsylvania. these are unbound delegates. these are men and women who will run on that primary ballot in pennsylvania next week. they will become free-agent delegates at the convention. here's the catch. a lot of them right now, like a majority of them who are running, aresaying they will
honor the vote. in their state or in the district. the polls right now in pennsylvania are showing donald trump ahead overwhelmingly. we talked to one of those unbound delegate candidates this week on the air and he said he intends to honor the vote in the state if he becomes a delegate, and he believes the pressure will be enormous on the other unbound delegates to do that. remember, we played it out a little conservatively and gave donald trump 1204. if he gets two-thirds of these unbound delegates from pennsylvania, and the polls show him winning that state big, that 1204 could across 1,237 very easily. and i'm not even giving him indiana. i'm saying he loses indiana. the path for donald trump, there are a couple of different scenarios here, very, very much alive. >> this also assumes -- i know, it's like the magic trick, you forget the dove is in your assistant's jacket. this also assumes a robust
campaign operation. who was the republican official who today said trump has so little grassroots, he's astroturf. this assumes a well-run operation, does it not? >> well, part of it that -- if donald trump -- if steve is right and pennsylvania is the key here and donald trump can get to 1,237 in terms of a furs balloting at the convention, then all of the ways that donald trump has been getting shellacked in all these other states, as cruz has been taking away all of these delegates that trump technically won, that won't matter -- >> a crooked system, a rigged system. >> if he can get there on ballot one, all of the stuff cruz has been doing to steal -- to steal? to take delegates wont matter. is that right, steve? >> that's exactly right. and i think that gets lost on the reporting sometimes. in this state, ted cruz picked off delegates, in that state, heiced off delegates. there are a couple of states,
colorado was one of them, wyoming's another where there's a premium on organizing. ted cruz out-hustled donald trump and he goat actual first-ballot convention delegates. but most of these you're hearing about. iowa, south carolina, virginia, those states, those are second-ballot perspective cruz delegates. they are required, under the rules of the party right now to vote for donald trump on the first ballot. if donald trump clears 1,237 in this primary process, they're not going to get the chance to turn on him at the convention. >> that's been the trump campaign argument. dpd, play your reindeer games pap we'll lose colorado and these other places. we're going to get there on the first ballot and none of that will matter. >> steve schmidt, why do you look like you could bend a bar with your bare hands? >> i think this will all come down to the state of california. 172 delegates. california will determine will donald trump makes it to the first ballot as the republican nominee. winner take all by congressional
district. not a lot of republicans in nancy pelosi's district in san francisco. not a lot of republicans in maxine waters' district in los angeles. the campaign that is organized to win an overwhelmingly democratic districts and in some cases, overwhelmingly hispanic districts, overwhelmingly african-american districts with very few republican votes is going to be the campaign that is able to take those out of those districts. so donald trump is running significantly ahead in california. but how will he perform in some of these districts in los angeles and san francisco. but if donald trump does in california and has a similar lead in california that he had coming into new york, the race will effectively end with the california primary. >> as a person who's run republican campaigns in california, do you think that
trump will win the state overall by a large margin? >> he's 20 points ahead in the state. it's a media state. it's a late engagement state. people donate start paying attention in politics in california until very, very late. it's an enormously expensive state. $3 million per week of advertising. so no campaign can really afford to do everything that's necessary in the state of california. so the free media narrative will propel forward. and i don't think tonight we have talked abouter talked enough about what i think is a psychically shattering night for ted cruz, in that he came in third place in the state of new york. >> and he campaigned here. >> he's the chief alternative to donald trump and tried to set this up as a two-person race, the premise was always that if i could get into a two-person race with donald trump, i'll be able to beat donald trump. and then he came in third place. >> and lost by double digits to
i'm flying tomorrow morning to indiana. i'm going to pennsylvania. i will be all over. so we're going to celebrate for about two hours. then early in the morning i get up and we begin working again. thank you, everybody. and thank you, new york. we love new york. we love new york. thank you very much, everybody. thank you. >> donald trump tonight in the tower that bears his name, announcing his plans to take the plane that bears his name to indiana, which before we're done, may bear his name. >> trumpiana, it's nice this time of year, actually. i want to bring into the conversation robert costa from "the washington post," an excellent reporter with very good sources in this presidential campaign. robert, one of the things we saw, a little different from donald trump tonight, was him not calling ted cruz "lyin' ted," instead calling him
"senator cruz." some other subtle shifts in tone tonight from the trump campaign. is that an accident of tonight's circumstances, or is this a sign of shifts to come? >> for donald trump, the campaign tonight continued where it began, trump tower. we saw those images of trump speaking, a different tone, more low-key, trying to be in his words, presidential. something he's really avoided doing for months. and this is a campaign that has often traveled at one speed. raucous rallies, controversy, twitter battles, shots at rivals. and today you see the campaign trying to move back, play at a different speed. and according to people close to trump, he's working with his new campaign managers, paul manafort and others, republican voeetera. trying to ask them, what do i need to do to clinch the nomination and have a bigger message. that was part of the process tonight. >> robert, that implies there was a diagnose that there was something wrong with the trump
campaign. and granted they did lose wisconsin. but other than that, they are, broadly speaking, winning over and over and over again. do you think that something was wrong? is new york with this massive victory the right kind of place to herald a shift? >> i spoke to someone who had a conversation with trump the other day, a close friend. and he said trump didn't think something was necessarily wrong. the thing he did think was wrong was the delegate accumulation. he didn't think he had the organization at the state conventions, but he also thought the campaign was too small. he was not getting council from many people. he wasn't building relationships across the party, he wasn't acting the way a big nominee acts. he was trying to get people to move him in that direction. >> robert costa from t"the washington post", appreciate it. can we call him judge ginsburg? >> sure. counselor. >> counselor is nice. yeah, see, he's being modest.
counselor, you just made a point to us, following steve kornacki's presentation on how we get to donald trump first ballot having the numbers. what was the cot sill you just added to us informally? >> steve's very good analysis of how donald trump would get over the number with the pennsylvania unbound delegates is absolutely true. the issue is you won't know where the pennsylvania unbound delegates are until they actually vote on the first ballot. that means the republican national committee doesn't have to give the keys to the convention to donald trump beforehand and is makes for a much more open rules committee, credentials committee process, if there is not a nominee who has locked up the 1,237. so that's the tension in the numbers as the votes come in. >> when you say the keys to the
convention, you don't mean the door key? >> we, it sort of is. >> what do you mean? >> what usually happens, especially at this time of the cycle in a normal cycle, is the campaign comes in and actually takes over the programming of the convention. because it's all about presenting their candidate in the best light. in this instance, without any candidate have a numeralical majority, that pass will still fall to the republican national committee. there's a huge difference in the way a national committee might plan a program without the nomination being firmly determined as a candidate would. so, for example, which first lady gives the address on the first night of the convention if you don't have a nominee and you don't know? so the whole programming aspects, putting it together, can remain in balance. >> so clint eastwood cannot
expect his second straight invitation to appear. final question, that is, this scenario of trump getting close. and you know, we've already heard so much talk about, if we're close, if we're almost there, if we're knocking on the door, don't try denying us that nomination. that's what you're talking about. >> yeah. and it's a very good point and the trump people do have a point. the question is, how you play out the process. again, who's in control? will the republican national committee give control of the program, control of the convention, control of its seats over to a campaign that is not yet passed the numeralical majority in the situation, or is it still considered an open convention and how does that decision get made? that's why getting to 1,237 on june 7th is so important. >> ben ginsburg, thank you so much. this is why you can say to our viewers, look away from this
we are back, as we look at lower manhattan, while deconstructing this night. >> yes, indeed! very quickly. one of the things that will make republicans very happy about tonight, regardless of whether they're excited about donald trump with having this big victory in new york is that once again, republicans have record turnout. republicans have broken the record for turnout in new york
state tonight, and once again, on the same night, democrats have not broken their record. it's a pattern we've seen over and over and over again throughout this whole primary season. but in terms of that republican victory, steve kornacki has been looking at the scale and the shape of it in terms of figuring out how well donald trump did tonight. >> yeah, it's big. i want to tell you, i have the best stat of the night. i want to save it for the end. let me give you an update on the delegate situation here. >> he's teasing us. >> a little tv technique i've picked up. 95 delegates here in new york. so trump needs 50% in every district to get all three. he's going to fall short in this albany district. looks like he'll get 2 there. kasich will get one. and in the syracuse district, to he'll lose two delegates there. we have to zoom in on new york city, these districts are so tiny. looks like down here in the tenth district, he's going to lose a delegate to kasich there. there are two outstanding ones. in the 12th district, kasich is
leading trump, a tiny margin won't be called tonight. if that holds, trump will only get one delegate out of there, kasich will get two. trump's at 50%, flat. again, not going to call tonight. if he gets literally one more vote, he gets all three. right now, 89 delegates for dru donald trump. in the 15th congressional vote, 924 votes were cast. >> wow! >> that's amazing. >> thank you. >> steve kornacki at the big board. we owe, for this hour, a last-round comment, if nicole has pulled herself together, about what we have witnessed tonight, nicole and steve. >> i'm told by someone who spoke to trump after the results were in that he sees the finish line now. that he must look at this map the way steve kornacki does. he sees the path. and he views both kasich and cruz as obstacles and i think
you can expect him to keep the peddle to the metal in viewing hi as his opponents. >> dr. schmidt? >> over the last two weeks, i think there's a confusion in the trump campaign in understanding where the line was where we're winning because of or we're winning in spite of. and i think they figured out where the inspite of line is. you see tonight a new tone from donald trump, a new type of temperament. it wasn't lyin' ted, it was senator cruz. very much on message. so over the last two weeks, we've seen donald trump come from the worst moment in the campaign following wisconsin, fighting with heidi cruz, going after megyn kelly again, badly off-message, to his biggest victory so far in this contest, and now with a clear path ahead to 1,237 delegates, a first-ballot nomination. and i think the wall is closing in now pretty mightily on the ted cruz campaign. >> as we always like to say, peep come and go so quickly
good evening from 30 rock felller plaza in new york. tonight hillary clinton and donald trump swept the primaries here in the empire state. with most of the vote in on the democratic side, clinton leads sanders by 16 points. donald trump won a huge margin of 45% over his nearest rival. that's a margin of