tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC April 19, 2016 10:00pm-11:01pm PDT
welcome back at the top of the hour. a view of lower manhattan. the night of the new york primary which in the days as it approached felt more serious and con skeshl than merely one state's primary. tonight results have born the t out. you see the blue at the top of the empire state building. at 39 minutes past the closing of the polls hillary clinton, our projected winner in new york and not by a small amount either. there's the current percentage
of the vote in. on the republican side at the closing of the polls not only did we project donald trump, we projected a substantial victory for him, which has come true. john kasich in second, ted cruz in third place. that's been the events of the evening. we watched both of the winners tonight, the democrat and the republican, speak in terms of we'll go on to win this thing and . the difference is the sanders campaign right here in this studio earlier this evening laid out that path to the nomination. >> it was a remarkable thing that happened here on this broadcast. the sanders campaign lapped the clinton campaign in terms of spending. they spent over $5.5 million in
terms of trying to win new york. sanders campaigned his heart out in this state. it felt like a home state contest for him. they said they would win this state. they have lost and lost by a lot. the sanders campaign had gone into new york saying they would win here, they said the previous losses and the reason they were so far behind was because of the conservative deep south and those are the kind of places you should expect bernie sanders to lose, but not new york. then to have the bernie sanders campaign manager come here with steve kornacki and walk him through how they think the nomination is still theirs, i had no idea how he was going to explain it. what steve got out of him was absolutely remarkable. this is going to end up being the story of tomorrow's news. i'd love to go back to steve on this now if we can and give us your reaction to what jeff
weaver told you. >> i asked him i said if we get through this entire process june 7th, the last day, if you get through and you've lost in the pledged delegates, that's the delegates given out in these primaries and caucuses and you have not won the popular vote, do you stop then and say it's time to unify the party or do you spend the summer trying to pick off these super delegates who are automatically voters at the democratic convention who are overwhelming saying they're for hillary clinton, do you still keep this campaign going and try to pick them off and he said we will still try to pick them off. we talk about the scale of the challenge for bernie sanders trying to overcome the delegate math that we laid out. he wouldn't say this. i understand why a campaign wouldn't say every state to come is a must win, but every state to come is a must win for bernie sanders. in a lot of cases after new york
it's must win in a landslide and in some of these states it's a landslide that is unimaginable given how sanders has performed in different regions thus far. the scale of that win is unimaginable. if he can't pull that off and he doesn't pass her in the popular vote, i don't know how to begin to estimate the delegates that they would need to get and say i'm going to flip to bernie sanders. the only slight parallel is gary hart said welcome to overtime. he spent the summer trying to flip super delegates. he didn't get any. if gary didn't have any luck i don't think bernie sanders will.
>> i want to get reaction to this moment from tonight. what are we to make of this. >> to jeff weaver's defense -- let's give the sanders campaign some credit. they put their money where their mouth was. they said new york was a must win for them and they acted like it. they threw everything they could into new york to pull this off. i sort of -- i take my hat off to campaigns sometimes talk about how much they're going to contest something, they actually made every effort, they tried to win a state they knew was an uphill battle. that didn't happen. one thing to think about what jeff told steve was something he said at the end when steve posed that terrific question, you don't have the pledged delegates are you still going do this and he said yes, at this time. that was the mini hedge to know that things will change tomorrow. things could change in a week.
my guess is the sanders campaign is not going to be in he sort of giving up mode this week, giving up mode tomorrow, but if they can't win three of five next week and you heard jeff say pennsylvania, rhode island, connecticut, those are the three that they would be the most competitive in, i think they need to win three of those five to be able to start talking about this again. i don't think they're going to be able to do it, but that's what it takes to make this remotely realistic. >> chuck todd, that's the democratic race for now. let's talk republicans and back to steve at the board. the big question on trump tonight, public polling had him as the victor going into this was the delegate math. what did he emerge with? >> the dream for trump tonight would be to get all 95. let's break this down. he's hit 50% statewide. he gets 14 for then. then 27 congressional drirtistr.
where is he in trouble right now. it's this pocket here. starts in albany. all of these districts, he's right around -- i hope this doesn't look like it. i got in trouble last week. >> it looks like a boot. >> it's the shoe. these districts right here, he is right at the 50% line. it could go either way right now. so if he clears 50% in these districts, it's three in each one of them. if he falls short he's going to lose a delegate to john kasich and down here, new york city there are a couple of problem areas for him. there's a district that straddles manhattan and brooklyn, they're both under 50. there's a second one on the upper east side he's leading by a few votes and the 13th district, very democratic district, 15 votes right now is the difference between trump currently getting all three delegates and falling and losing one to john kasich.
it looks like the range of possible outcomes tonight on the low end for donald trump, worst case he walks away from 86, best case 93 or 95. >> people have been saying heading into this if donald trump hits 80 is a huge night for him. is it pretty yobvious this is going to be a total washout for ted cruz? >> yeah, ted cruz i think he cleared 20% in the 10th district, but he's no the running for delegates. >> steve kornacki at the big board, probably all of it is a good jumping off point to go to the group we informally call our road warriors because this is a new york contest the good part of that for us is our correspondents who have been covering all these campaigns tend to spend rare moments here in new york. among them katie and with the trump campaign, start us off. >> last time you saw us we were
underneath the brooklyn bridge and if steve looks different it's because -- >> it's a sad face. i am steve kornacki and i have go back to the big board in a minute. >> i don't know how it was for you on the trail tonight. but the tone with donald trump tonight was so much more -- so much different than i had just a couple of weeks ago he came out and he was gracious in his campaign speech. it was short and concise. he didn't call senator ted cruz lying ted. he called him senator cruz, which is new. >> he was very polite. >> and he didn't go after secretary clinton. >> and he stayed on message which is talking about a rigged system. >> you seemed shocked. >> i am sort of shocked because we've seen this trump 2.0. >> so many times now. do you think that's why? >> i do. i mean the intrigue behind the
scenes -- it's more fascinating to those on the road because what you saw at the beginning of the night is corey lewandowski came down and spoke to the press before this victory speech. he does not do that. he never does that. he doesn't come down. he's very closed lip and he doesn't like to talk to the press at all unless its under his circumstances. after that, after donald trump spoke, paul manafort came over and did the same thing. >> did it feel like a confidence change? does it feel like a self conscious decision about the campaign where it feels awkward to all of them to be acting in this new way? >> yes and no. donald trump was on the stage and he said something to the effect of the press wants to talk about me changing things, but it's a reorganization, we're growing. corey lewandowski early said we're growing, baby, in a very confident way. and then paul manafort said no this is normal, this is what happens, but it isn't that
normal. in some ways yes the campaign is going to expand, but this is happening in a very obvious way at least behind the scenes. >> what's interesting is a new type of tone from donald trump. it's a brand new speech from ted cruz. he came out tonight from philadelphia and talked like we've never heard him talk before wchl before. he used barack obama's slogan of yes we can. he's hoping to move into that new phase and for secretary clinton also. >> she was completely energized tonight. i see tonight a tale of two front-runners. both of them exceeded expectations and both of them speaking within three blocks of each other. guess what, they had a similar message. this race is just about over. you heard secretary clinton say that essentially it's time for unity. you heard donald trump. he was a little more blunt.
>> he did say mathematically it's nearly impossible for ted cruz to win the nomination on his own. next week the campaign thinks it will be actually mathematically impossible and that's their message. their message is ted cruz is trying to steal away this election. the election should be coming from the voters. >> there's a change in tone, but not a change in message. at the end of the day they still need to rack up these delegates. they're still looking after these guys. it's the same message, it's just being delivered in a different way. >> this movement to stop trump is disorganized it's starting to potentially become a fairy tail if they can't get it together. for him to have worst case 86 delegates out of new york, best case 93 to 95, that's a huge number, more than we expected.
>> so the question becomes if you're not hillary clinton and you're not trump, what is your path forward. what is the path to the nomination. >> they believe that out of pennsylvania they could get a couple of dozen. they think think they might pick up six in maryland and then they turn to indiana and california. the new magic number, 1,200. that's the number they need trump to stay below. they believe the further below 1,200 they do the better ted cruz does in a convention. >> it's entirely clear we will have a real contested convention. i think there's a lot of hoopla going on. i think when push comes to shove and you get to the convention and donald trump has more than 1,100 delegates, it's a hard argument to say he shouldn't be
the nominee. >> what is a real contested convention. >> i think a real contested convention would be going to a second ballot and ted cruz doing well in a second ballot, potentially a third and fourth ballot. >> i've been talking to a number of republican sources who say if he gets within 100 points it's going to be very tough to make that argument to have a contested convention and i think one of the big questions on the democratic side and you heard secretary clinton speak to this tonight, what does senator sanders do, how does he effectively land this plane because this has been such an ugly race in recent days on the democratic side and the clinton campaign saying it's time for him to start to scale back, it's
my impression he's not going to, but i wonder what your impression is. >> he had this very bizarre evening. i kind of wondered if there was something going on. he left pennsylvania where he had an early rally and he leaves his main aids behind, he flies to vermont, he lands and they announced they're going to have a plane side gagle. it's unclear with whom. so part of me wondered did this night go differently, but what we heard is the same thing we've been hearing from him is they're going to go forward. they went all in in new york and it sounds like they're going to go all in in pennsylvania as well. they're talking about these voter problem in brooklyn. the question is is he going to decide to embrace the role he's created for himself and it's an significant one. he's demonstrated a lot about where the party is, but if he
ends it acrimoniously it's bad for both sides. >> it's critical for the young voters. what will they do if secretary clinton is facing off against donald trump? does he help them and to what extent does he help them? >> is there any chance at all that they would run on the same ticket. >> i don't think they would run on the same ticket, but i've talking to clinton campaign officials about would they bring in him in any shape or form. it's not clear. i think they wouldn't mind him having on the campaign trail at a few different times. >> i think they wouldn't mind him asking people for money. >> with that we're going to toss it back. we love to have these conversations when we're sitting here privately so great to share it with all of you. >> thank you. we're duty bound to tell you all get rest and nourishment while you're here in new york.
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20 minutes after the hour these were the results on the left. that was an early call at poll closings we projected the winner by quite a margin. >> that is a huge margin. that's more than whopping the guy in came in second to win with a 35 margin. that's just epic. >> john kasich and the man who talked about new york values is a new york third tonight.
hillary clinton, the projected winner of the democrats. much discussion over the margin with bernie sanders, what this now does to bernie sanders and the state of the democratic race. ra rach rachel and i are back. i want to let you guys toss this around. not only the discussion here in the studio, but the optics of sanders getting on a plane, leaving the press core here. it's his press charter and going home to burlington right now. >> i would lump it together with the optics of ted cruz giving a speech in the 8:00 hour and my what a difference two weeks make. two weeks ago tonight we were talking about their victories in wisconsin. i have been on both ends of this and to pay it back to chuck todd i think he was right, you've got
to get jeff weaver credit for leaving himself a little bit of room. the truth about the sanders campaign is they probably don't know what happens next. i'm guessing there are conversations happening. i'm guessing there are all sorts of ideas about how to proceed, but i would bet that's not the only idea about how to proceed. when you're on a losing campaign you don't know what happens next, but that is a losing campaign tonight. >> i think it's clear that they don't know what the next step is because we heard jeff weaver talk about essentially fighting to the bitter end. and even if they don't catch up, they're going to try to flip the super delegates somehow which won't happen. that's not a political revolution. at the same time the chief
strategist for the sanders campaign said we're going to see how we do next week. >> the quote from the ap was the sanders campaign we'll see how we do next week and then direct quote from tad, assess where we are which is very different than what jeff weaver just told us. >> they do represent the two potential offramps. these are smart people inside the campaigns. these are probably the two options before two probably unattractive options. >> one is we're taking an off ramp and one is we're not. i think the reason there's been such a huge reaction, the reason the name jeff weaver started trending nationally on twitter as soon as that interview wrapped up here is because what weaver is talking about is yeah it's a contested convention on the republican side, it's a contested convention on the democratic side and they will
press that advantage and they will fight to deny hillary clinton the nomination that she leads with even if they're behind in the states and the vote and the delegates. >> and press it on the basis of polling that suggest that he might do better than hillary clinton against a republican opponent. that seemed to be what this was going to be become. >> i think the reason that it feels different than your average candidate spin though coming from jeff weaver, every candidate -- nobody ever says i'd love to be vice president. nobody ever says here's my plan for when i'm going to lose, you always have to project confidence. >> you don't get ahead of your candidate. >> absolutely. the reason that this feels like not just spin and not just an empty threat from jeff weaver here about the sanders campaign is because the sanders campaign is made of money, because they raise $40 million a month month after month, they have so much
money from their small dollar donors that they could absolutely roll this through july if they wanted to. >> to what end though right. >> that's why democrats are freaking out about that interview because to what ebnd. >> from that point of view the worst thing would be using all that money seesessentially tearn hillary clinton with negative advertising. that would be the worst thing, not the worst thing if they stay in the race up to the convention. >> joining us watching and listening all of this is lawrence o'donnell. as i was saying democrats have said well at least unlike the republicans we won't have a big mess at our convention. >> yeah, they probably won't despite what jeff weaver said they probably won't. i'd like to take a second to put a general election perspective on what happened in the state of new york tonight.
donald trump is on his way to finishing third to bernie sanders in total votes cast. hillary clinton is on her way to more -- winning more votes than all of the votes cast for all of the republican candidates combined. this was a night where it could be made very clear to the republican party new york is not in play in november. this was a very clear message in new york about the general election. >> i think one of the mitigating factors in my view would be that this was a closed primary on both sides and that at least from donald trump's perspective the argument he's making is about people that weren't allowed to vote today. new york is never in play for republicans. it's never on the list of target states, we never highlight it in our presentation to donors, but i think one wild card might be that if everyone is allowed to vote i think that trump is still
a question mark. >> the trump campaign in this general election, this is not a team that's been in new york before. if hillary clinton's the nominee, she's won statewide twice before as a senator, this campaign followed the model of her senate campaigns in so many ways. and so tonight is a very big win on the democratic side for hillary clinton. really big win and in terms of the sanders slope from here, if there is one and if there is an exit from this campaign, this is a very emotionally based campaign. this is not a campaign that can end suddenly in one night. remember those $27 donors, bernie sanders, if he is going to exit the campaign, has to find a glide path that is acceptable to them. all those donors that he has in
california for example, what is the deliberation within the sanders' campaign about keeping their votes alive, letting them have an election day in june that matters to them. even if the sanders campaign sees by the beginning of june that they don't have a real way to this nomination that they don't have a way of persuading super delegates, even if they see that they may want to stay in this basically as long as hillary clinton did in 2008. >> we've talked about the power of repetitious, there's also $27 for donors. quick break for us. we're back with our team after this.
i would not blame the republicans for asking for equal time. the empire state has remained bathed in blue since the announcement of hillary clinton's victory on the democratic side. it wasn't red for long in celebration for donald trump's victory. you hear a lot about the word path, path to the nomination, path to anything ending in numbers. 1,237 is the republican path and
a lot of talk tonight and prior to this about donald trump gets there. that's why steve kornacki's at the board. >> after wisconsin it seems such like a long time ago and the idea was we're going to an open convention, so we've been keeping up to tabs on what the delegate count in new york looks like. if they stopped right now he'd get 90. let's say he gets 90. that's going to put him at 846. trying to get to 1,237. what you're seeing here is what's up next week. we know donald trump is leading in all of these states next week. delaware is winner take all. he looks strong here. 17 in pennsylvania, we'll talk about the 54 later. the 17 are winner take all. connecticut, if he can clear 50%
statewide. rhode island is very proportional. it could be one of trump's strongest states in the country, but he could add from the things i just circled he could add 100 next week. he could be sitting at 946 when we finish the month of april. let's play that forward. these are the states that come in may and june. trump starts with 946. where do we go? we go indiana in early may. you could make a case for trump or cruz. let's say trump loses. let's say he wins three congressional districts in indiana, puts him at 955. west virginia looks strong and let's give him 30. 985. washington and oregon are proportional. nebraska is winner take all. let's say trump is only getting delegates out of those two states. that puts him at 1,021.
let's say he takes 12 out of new mexico. 1,284. then california, three delegates for every district you win out there, let's say it's a good night for trump though, let's say he gets 121 out of california, if he did that, he'd be short. 1205 he's short, open convention. remember what i said, circle pennsylvania with. this is the key and i think this is the biggest story right now in the republican race. these 54 in pennsylvania, these are unbound delegates. these are men and women who will run on that primary ballot in pennsylvania next week. they will become free agent delegates at the convention. here is the catch. a lot of them right now like a majority of them who are running are saying they will honor the vote in the state or in their district and the polls right now
in pennsylvania are showing donald trump ahead overwhelmi . overwhelmingly. we talked to an unbound delegate who said he intends to honor the vote in the state and he believes the pressure will be enormous on the unbound delegates to do that. we played it out conservatively and we gave donald trump 1,204. if he gets two-thirds of these unbounds delegates from pennsylvania, that 1204 could cross 1237 very easily. i'm not even giving him indiana. i'm saying he loses indiana. so the path for donald trump, there are a couple of different scenarios here. very much alive. >> this also assumes -- it's like the magic trick. this also assumes a robust campaign operation. who was the republican official
who today said trump has so little grassroots he's astroturf. this assumes a well run operation does it not. >> the part of it that -- if donald trump -- if steve is right and pennsylvania is the key here and donald trump can get to 1,237 in terms of a first balloting at the convention, then all of the ways that donald trump has been getting shaell acted in all these other states, that won't matter. if he can get there on ballot one, then all of the stuff that cruz has been doing to take delegates won't matter. is that right? >> that's exactly right. i think that gets lost in the reporting on this sometimes. we get these states coming in. in this state ted cruz picked off delegates. there are a couple of states, colorado was one of them and wyoming was another where there was a premium on organizing.
ted cruz outhustled donald trump. most of these you're hearing about iowa, south carolina, virginia, those are second ballot perspective cruz delegates. they are required to vote for donald trump on the first ballot. if donald trump clears 1,237 in this primary process they're not going to get the chance to turn on him. >> that's been the trump campaign argument now which is play your games, we'll lose these places where you're taking our delegates where we won the states, we're going to get there on the first ballot. >> this will come down to the state of california. 127 delegates. california will determine whether or not donald trump makes it to the first ballot as the republican nominee. 53 congressional districts, winner take all by congressional district and here's where it gets tricky. not a lot of republicans in this
district in san francisco, not a lot of republicans in los angeles. so the campaign that is organized to win an overwhelming democratic districts and in some cases overwhelming hispanic and african-american districts with very few republican votes is going to be the campaign that is able to take those delegates out of those districts. >> we get a preview of that tonight in new york. >> so donald trump is running significantly ahead in california, but how will he perform in some of these districts in los angeles, san francisco, but if donald trump does in california and he has a similar lead in california that he had coming into new york, then the race will effectively end with the california primary and he'll be the nominee on the first ballot. >> as a person who has run republican campaigns in california, do you think trump will win the state.
>> he's 20 points ahead in the state. he's a late engagement state. people don't start paying attention to politics in california until late. it's an expensive state. $3 million per week of advertising. no campaign can really afford to do everything that's necessary in the state of california. so the free media narrative will propel forward and i don't think we have talked enough about what i think is a psychically shattering night for ted cruz in that he came in third place in the state of new york. if in fact he is the chief alternative to donald trump and he's tried to set this up as a two-person race, the premise was that if i could get into a two-person race with donald trump i'll be able to beat donald trump, he got into a two-person race and he came in third place. >> lost by double digits to john kasich. >> another break. our coverage continues on the
i'm flying tomorrow to indiana, i'm going to pennsylvania. i'll be all over so we're going to celebrate for about two hours and then early in the morning i get up and we begin working again. thank you everybody. and thank you new york. we love new york. we love new york. thank you very much everybody. thank you. >> donald trump tonight in the tower that bears his names announcing his plans to go to indiana. >> i want to bring into the conversation robert costa from "the washington post." one of the things that we saw a little different from donald trump tonight was him not calling ted cruz lying ted instead calling him senator cruz.
some other shuttle shifts in tone tonight from the donald trump. is that an accident or is this a sign of things to come. >> for donald trump the campaign from where it begin. he was more low key and trying to be presidential something he's avoided doing for months. this is a campaign that's traveled at one speed. today you see the campaign trying to move back and play at a different speed and according to people close to trump he's working with his new campaign advisers and trying to ask them what do i need to do to clench the nomination. that's not easy for trump, but that was part of the project tonight. >> that implies there's a diagnosis there was something wrong with the trump campaign. they did lose wisconsin, but other than that they are broadly
speaking winning over and over and over again. do they think that something was wrong? is new york with this massive victory the right kind of place to herald a shift? >> i spoke to someone who had a conversation with trump the other day and he said trump didn't think something was necessarily wrong, the thing he did think was wrong was the delegate accumulation. he thought the campaign was too small. away not getting counsel from many people, he wasn't building relationships across the party, he wasn't acting in the big way a nominee acts. he was trying to get people to get him moving in that direction. >> robert costa with "the washington post." thank you. >> thank you. we want to bring back judge ginsberg. you made a point to us following
steve kornacki's presentation on how we get to donald trump first ballot having the numbers. what did you -- what was the cod sill you just added to us informally. >> steve's very good analysis of how donald trump would get over the number with the pennsylvania unbound delegates is absolutely true. the issue is you won't know where the pennsylvania unbound delegates are until they actually vote on the first ballot. that means the republican national committee doesn't have to give the keys to the convention to donald trump beforehand and it makes for a much more open rules committee process if there is not a nominee who has locked up the 1,237. so that's the tension in the numbers as the votes come in. >> when you see the keys to the convention, you don't mean the door key. >> it sort of is. >> what do you mean?
>> what usually happens, especially at this time of the cycle in a normal cycle, is the campaign comes in and actually takes over the programming of the convention because it's all about presenting their candidate in the best light. in this instance without any candidate having a numerical majority, that task will still fall to the republican national committee. there's a huge difference in the way that a national committee might plan a program without the nomination being firmly determined as a candidate would. so for example which first lady gives the address on the first night of the convention if you don't have a nominee and don't know? so the whole programming aspects, putting it together can remain in balance. >> so clint eastwood cannot expect his second straight investigation to appear.
final question and that is the scenario of trump getting close and we've already heard so much talk about if we're close, if we're almost there, if we're knocking on the door, don't try denying us that nomination, that's what you're talking about. >> and it's a very good point and the trump people do have a point. the question is how you play out the process. again, who is in control? will the republican national committee give control of the program, control of the convention, control of its seats, over to a campaign that is not yet passed the numerical majority in this situation or is it still considered an open convention and how does that decision get made? that's why getting to 1,237 on june 7th is so important. >> thank you so much for. this is why we say to our viewers you look away from this stuff for just one minute you're behind so you must stay with us
democrats have not broken their record. it's a pattern we've seen over and over again throughout this whole primary season. in terms of that republican victory, steve kornacki has been looking at the scale and shape of it in terms of figuring out how well donald trump did tonight. >> it's big. i have the best stat of the night. let me give you an up date on the delegate situation. 95 delegates at stake here. where is trump falling short. he needs 50% in every district to get all of them. he's going to fall short in this albany district. in the syracuse district, he's going to lose two delegates there. it looks like down here in the tenth district he's going to lose a delegate to kasich there and there are two outstanding ones, this is ridiculous, in the 12th district right now kasich is leading trump.
a tiny margin. if that holds trump will get one delegate out there. the 13th, it's a tie right now. trump's at 50% flat. if he gets one more vote he gets all three. right now it's 89 delegates for donald trump. in the 21th congressional district 62,000 republican votes were cast tonight. >> thank you. we owe for this hour a last round comment in nicole has pulled herself together about what we have witnessed tonight. >> donald trump sees the finish line now. he must look at this map the way steve does, he sees the path and he views both kasich and cruz as obstacles and i think you can expect him to keep the pedal to
the metal in viewing them as opponents to get to the finish line. >> what we've seen over the last two weeks i think there is confusion in the trump campaign that understanding where the line was between we're winning because of or we're winning in spite of and i think they figured out where the in spite of line is. so you've seen tonight a new tone from donald trump. it wasn't lying ted, it was senator cruz, very much on message. over the last two weeks we've seen donald trump come from the worst moment in the campaign following wisconsin, fighting with heidi cruz, going after megyn kelly again, to his biggest victory so far in this contest and no with a clear path ahead to 1,237 delegates and i think the walls closing in now on the ted cruz campaign. >> as we like to say, people come and go so quickly around here, but our thanks to steve
good evening. from 30 rockefeller plaza, new york, tonight hillary clinton and donald trump swept the primaries here in the empire state. with most of the voting on the democratic side, clinton leads sanders by 16 points. donald trump won a huge margin of 45% over his nearest rival. that's a margin of 45% over his nearest rival, in this case john kasich.