tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC April 20, 2016 12:00am-1:01am PDT
welcome back at the top of the hour. a view of the lower manhattan, brooklyn bridge and the night of the new york primary which in the day as it approached felt more serious and consequential than merely one state's primary. tonight's results have borne that out. you see the blue atop the empire state building. that is because the second call of the night was for the democrats. it was red earlier. this is why it's in blue. at 39 minutes past the closing of the polls, hillary clinton our projected winner in new york and not by a small amount either. there's the current percentage of the vote in. on the republican side, at the
closing of the polls, not only did we project donald trump, we projected a substantial victory for him which has come true. john kasich in second, ted cruz in third place. that's been the events of the evening. brian williams, rachel maddow, by the way. and we watched both of the winners tonight. the democrat and the republican speak in terms of you know, we'll go on to win this thing, and to the vanquished, the difference, the sanders campaign in this studio earlier this evening laid out their path to the nomination. >> this was a remarkable thing that happened on this broadcast. you think about what happened tonight in new york. the sanders campaign lapped the clinton campaign in terms of spending. they spent over $5.5 million in new york. for context, nobody on the
republican side even spent a half million. they doubled the clinton campaign. sanders campaign is a hard up in this state. it felt like a home state contest for them. they said they would win this and they have lost and lost by a lot. sanders campaign went into new york not only saying they would win here, they said their previous losses and the reason they were so far behind was because of the conservative deep south. those are the kinds of places you should expect bernie sanders to lose but not new york and then to have the bernie sanders campaign manager come here with steve kornacki and walk him through how they think the nomination is still theirs, i had no idea how he was going to explain it. what steve got out of him was absolutely remarkable. i think this is going to end up being the story of all of tomorrow's news. i'd love to go back to steve now on this if we can. steve, give us your reaction to what jeff weaver just told you. >> i think the headline of what he said, if we get through the
entire primary process, june 7th. the last day of the contest, the district of columbia goes after that. if you get through it and you've lost in the pledged delegates and you have not won the popular vote, you add up all the votes in the different states, do you stop then and say it's time to unify the party or do you spend the summer trying to pick off these super delegates, these elected officials and party leaders who are automatically voters who are already saying they're for hillary clinton, do you still keep this campaign going and try to pick them off? he said, we will still try to pick them off. it is -- we talk about the scale of the challenge for bernie sanders here just trying to overcome the delegate math that we laid out. he wouldn't quite say this. he wouldn't say every state to come is must-win. pretty much every state to come is must-win for bernie sanders. in a lot of cases it's must-win
in a landslide. it's a landslide that's unimaginable given how sanders has performed in different regions of the country so far. nonetheless, the scale of that challenge is nothing more than i can remember. if he can't pull that off and he doesn't pass her in the popular vote, then i don't know how to begin to estimate the scale of the challenge of trying to get super delegates who are already for hillary clinton to disregard the delegate count and disregard the popular vote and say now at the end of all of in i'm going to flip to bernie sanders. the only slight parallel, 1984 gary hart got to the end be of the primaries against walter mondale. he said, welcome to overtime. he spent the summer trying to flip super delegates. he didn't get any. if gary hart didn't have any luck back then, i'm not sure bernie sanders will have any. >> steve kornacki, thanks. i want to give witness to this moment that steve led from chuck
todd. chuck, what are we to make of this? >> well, to jeffrey with defense. i thought, look, let's give the sanders campaign some credit. they actually put their money where their mouth was. they said new york was must-win for them and they acted like it. they threw everything they could into new york to pull this off. so this was -- you know, i sort of take my hat off. some campaigns bloviate. they tried to win what was an uphill battle because they needed to change the dynamic. that didn't happen. when steve posed that terrific question, you don't have the pledge delegates, are you still going to do that, he said, yeah, that's our strategy, i think he said, at this time. that was the mini hedge to know that, look, things will -- things will change tomorrow, things could change in a week. i think my guess is the sanders
campaign is not going to be in any giving up mode this week or tomorrow. if they can't win three of five next week, you heard jeff say pennsylvania, rhode island, connecticut, those are the three that they'd be the most competitive in. i think at a minimum they need to win three of the five to even be able to start talking about this again. i don't think they're going to be able to do it. that's what it takes to make this remotely realistic. >> chuck todd, that's the democratic race for now. let's talk republicans. back to steve at the board. the big question on trump tonight, public calling him as the victor going into this was the delegate math. what did he emerge with? >> right. the dream for trump tonight would be to get all 95. let's break this down quickly. he's hit 50% statewide. he gets 14 for that. 27 congressional districts, 3 delegates each. the question is every one of these where he breaks 50%, that's his goal. where is he in trouble?
it's this pocket here. starts in albany. all of these districts right here, he is right around the -- i hope this doesn't look like -- i got in trouble last week. >> it looks like a boot, don't worry, it's a boot. >> a shoe. a shoe at home. these districts right here, ladies and gentlemen, he is right at the 50% line. it could go either way right now. if he clears 50% in these districts, it's 3 in each one of them. if he falls short, he's going to lose a delegate to john kasich. down here there's a problem a district that straddles manhattan and brooklyn. he's leading by a point over kasich. both well over 50. second one, upper east side leading only by a few votes over john kasich. in charlie rangel's district, 15th district, democratic district. bottom line, it looks like the range of possible outcomes on
the low end for donald trump. worst case he walks away with 86, best case he walks away with 93 or 95. >> people have been saying heading into this if donald trump hits 80 it's a huge night for him. his worst case scenario, 86. steve, is it pretty obvious at this point that this is going to be a total washout for ted cruz? >> yeah, ted cruz i think he cleared 10%. he's not in the running for any delegates. >> steve kornacki at the big board. all of it is a good jumping off and to go to the group we informally call our road warriors. because of this contest, the good part is our correspondents who have been covering all of these campaigns tend to spend rare moments here in new york. among them katie tur and off the road with the trump campaign, katie start us off. >> last time you saw us we were under the brooklyn bridge.
if steve looks different -- >> it's a face wash. i am steve kornacki. i have to go back to the big board in a minute. >> the big board. >> i don't know how it was for you on the trail tonight. well, i guess kristen is the only one that was with a candidate tonight. the tone with donald trump tonight was so much more -- so much different than i had seen just a couple weeks ago he came out and he was gracious in his campaign speech, really short, concise. he didn't call senator ted cruz lying ted. he called him senator cruz. >> very polite. >> very polite. >> he didn't go after hillary clinton at all. >> and he stayed on message. >> you seem shocked? >> i am sort of shocked. we've seen this trump 2.0 so many times now. >> do you think that's why? >> i do. the intrigue behind the scenes, certainly it's a little bit more
fascinating to us who were on the road. cory lewandowski came down and spoke to the press before this victory speech. he does not do that. he never does that. he doesn't come down and hold gagless. he's very closed lips and doesn't like to talk at all. after that, after donald trump spoke paul manaford came over and did the same thing. >> does it feel like a confident change? watching from the outside and what you do on a daily basis, does it feel like a self-conscious decision where it feels awkward to be this way? >> yes and no. donald trump was on stage and he said something to the effect of the press wants to talk about me changing things but it's really just a reorganization. cory lewandowski earlier when a reporter asked him said, we're growing, baby, in a very confident way. paul manaford said, no, this is what happens. it isn't that normal.
in some ways, yes, the campaign is always going to expand. this is happening in a very obvious way, at least behind the scenes. >> new speech, new type of tone from donald trump. it's a brand-new speech from ted cruz. he came out in philadelphia and talked like we've never heard him talk before. he used barack obama's slogan, yes, we can and now it's yes, we will. it's totally different for him. and for secretary clinton also. >> she was completely energized tonight. i see tonight sort of as a tale of two front-runners. both of them exceeded expectations. both of them speaking within just blocks of each other. i think three blocks of each other. he spokes with sinatra in the back drop. secretary clinton took the stage with jay z. guess what, they had a very similar message. this race is just about over. you heard secretary clinton say that essentially, it's time for unity. you heard donald trump. he was a little bit more blunt i think. he said it's hard to see mathematically. >> more blunt than in the past.
mathematically it is impossible or nearly impossible for ted cruz to win the nomination on his own. next week the campaign thinks it will be actually mathematically impossible. that's their message. their message is ted cruz is trying to steal away this election. this election should be coming from the voters, that's who should be deciding, not the closed door dealings. >> at the end of the day they need to rack up all of the delegates. it's the unbound delegates. it's still strategically the same message delivered differently. >> one thing we learned is this movement to stop trump is so disorganized and all over the place that it's starting to potentially become a fairy tale. they can't really get it together. for these delegates, for him to have worse case 86 delegates out of new york, best case 93 to 9
5. >> the question is if you're hillary clinton or -- >> a contested convention. >> they believe that out of pennsylvania they can get a couple dozen. they might pick up 6. in maryland that's the best case. worsz worst in pa is a few. 1200 is the number they need donald trump to stay below. they want to keep cruz delegate numbers above 800. >> it's entirely clear that he will have a real contested convention. >> i think that's -- >> i think that there's a lot of people going on about it right now. there's a lot of big talk about how they want to stop him but i think when push comes to shove if donald trump has more than 1100 delegates, it's a hard argument to say he shouldn't be the nominee. >> what happens. >> more votes. >> what is a real contested
convention? >> we have steve kornacki here not jacob silver. >> no. >> my high school friends are going to -- >> a real contested convention will go to a second ballot. >> i've been talk to go a number of people who say if he gets to 100 that will be difficult. it's hard to make that argument. the question on the democratic side, you heard secretary clinton talk about this. what does sanders do. how does he land this plane? because this has been such an ugly race in recent days. on the democratic side and the clinton campaign very forcefully saying it's time for him to start to scale back. it's my impression he's not going to but i wonder what your
impression is. >> i sort of -- he had a bizarre sort of evening. i kind of wondered if there was something going on. he left state college pennsylvania where he had an early rally. he flies to vermont. he lands in burlington where they announce they're going to have a plane side gaggle. it's unclear with whom because there are no reporters, no cameras traveling and danny freeman, our intrepid imbed also not with him. did this night go differently? what we heard from senator sanders is the same thing we've been hearing from him, they're going to go forward. chuck todd was talking about how they went all in in new york. sounds like they're going to go all in in pennsylvania as well. what you said is dead on. the question will be ultimately if he wants to embrace the rule he's created for himself. it's a significant one. >> absolutely. >> he's shown a lot, demonstrated a lot where the party is. if he ends it acrimoniously it's negative for both sides.
>> so critical for the younger voters. we spent so much time talking about the young voters so energized behind senator sanders. what will they do if secretary sanders faces off against donald trump and to what extent does he help them? >> is there any chance at all that they would run on the same ticket? >> i don't think they would run on the same ticket but i've been talking to clinton officials, would they bring him in in any way. >> what would it look like? >> i think they wouldn't mind having him on the campaign trail. >> i think they'd like to ask him for money. >> i think that's right. with that we're going to toss it back. this is such a vigorous, exciting discussion. we love having these discussions when we're sitting here privately. great to share it all to you. brian, i'll toss it back to you. >> kristen welker, we're duty bound to tell you get rest and nourishment while you're here in new york. the quirk of casey hunt being able to be with us because her candidate flew to burlington,
we are back on this night of the new york primary. 20 minutes after the hour. these were the results on the left, that was an early call at poll closings we projected the winner by quite a margin. >> that is a huge margin. >> i know it is. >> just pause. that's more than whopping the guy that came in in second to win with a 35 point margin at least at this point, something that may approach that towards the end. that's epic. >> john kasich and the man who talked about new york values is new york third tonight. ted cruz. hillary clinton, the projected
winner of the democrats. much discussion over the margin of bernie sanders. what this now does to bernie sanders and the state of the democratic race. rachel and i are back. i want to let you toss this around, the optics of what we witnessed tonight. the optics of bernie sanders getting on a plane, leaving the press core here. he's able to do what he wants and going home to burlington right now at this point. >> i would lump it together with the optics of ted cruz giving a speech, you know, in the 8:00 hour and, my, what a difference two weeks makes, right? two weeks ago tonight we were talking about their whopper victories in wisconsin. i have been there and to pay it
back to chuck todd, i think he was right. i think you have to give jeff weaver credit for leaving himself a little bit of room. the truth of the sanders campaign, they don't know what happens next. i'm guessing there's conversations happening. i'm just guessing. i'm an outsider observing the democratic race. i'm guessing there are all kinds of discussions about how to proceed. when you're on a losing campaign, you don't know exactly what happens next but that is a losing campaign tonight. >> yeah. i think it's really clear they don't know exactly what the next step is. we heard jeff weaver talk about essentially fighting to the bitter end, right? and even if they don't get the popular vote, even if they don't catch up in pledge delegates, they're going to flip the super delegates somehow which actually won't happen. >> insider game is so frantic. >> it's not a political revolution, right? at the same time the other chief
strategist for the sanders campaign told reporters tonight, you know, we're going to have to -- we're going to see how we do next week. we have to win most of our primaries. >> the quote from the a.p. was the sanders campaign, we'll see how we do next week and then direct quote from todd divine, assess where we are. >> exactly. >> which is very different than what jeff weaver told us. >> they do represent the two potential off ramps. these are smart people inside campaigns. candidates surround themselves with the best and brightest people in the party. these are probably the two options before -- probably two unattractive options. >> one is we're taking an off ramp and one is we're not. i think the reason there's been such a huge reaction, the reason that the name jeff weaver without a hashtag started trending nationally on twitter as soon as that interview wrapped up with steve kornacki is because what we were talking about is, yeah, it's a contested convention on the republican side, it's a contested
convention on the democratic side and they will press that advantage and they will fight to deny hillary clinton the nomination that she leads for even if they're behind in the states and votes and delegates. >> press it on the basis of polling that suggests that he might do better than hillary clinton against a republican opponent. that seemed to be what this was going to be about. >> i think the reason it feels different than your average candidate spin though coming from jeff weaver, every candidate, we were talking about this on the break. nobody ever says, yeah, i'd love to be vice president. nobody ever says, oh, yeah, here's my plan for when i'm going to lose. you have to project confidence. >> you don't get ahead of your candidate. >> absolutely. the reason that this feels like not just spin and not just an empty threat from jeff weaver about the sanders campaign is because the sanders campaign is made of money. because they raised $40 million a month, month after month now defeating everybody else in terms of their individual small dollar donations.
they have so much, raising such an infinite amount of money. they could absolutely roll this through july if they wanted to. not like kasich saying that. >> to what end? >> that's why democrats are freaking out about that interview. to what end? >> for the democratic party from that point of view would be using all of that money to tear down hillary clinton with negative advertising. that would be the worst thing. not necessarily the worst thing if they stay in the race up to the convention depending on how they campaign. >> in our newsroom joining us watching and listening to all of this is lawrence o'donnell. lawrence as i was saying all cycle long vg democrats have said, well, at least like the republicans, we won't have a big mess at our convention. >> yeah, they probably won't despite what jeff weaver said. they probably won't have a big mess at their congress vengs. i'd like to take a moment to put
a general election perspective on what happened in the state of new york tonight. donald trump is on his way to finishing third to bernie sanders in total votes cast. hillary clinton is on her way to more -- winning more votes than all of the votes cast for all of the republican candidates combined. this was a night where it should be made very clear to the republican party, new york is not in play in november. this was a very clear message in new york about the general election. >> lawrence, i think one of the mitigating factors in my view was that this was a closed primary on both sides. from donald trump's perspective, the argument he's making is the people who can vote. new york is never in play for republicans. it's never on the list of target states. we never highlighted it in our presentations to donors. it usually isn't. i think one wild card might be
that if everyone is allowed to vote, i think trump is still a question mark. >> well, you know, look, the trump campaign in this general election, this is not a team that's been in new york before. hillary clinton is the nominee, she's won statewide twice before as a senator. this campaign, sorry, followed the model of her senate campaigns in so many ways and so, look, i mean, tonight is a very, very, very big win on the democratic side for hillary clinton. really big win. and in terms of the sanders float from here, if there is one and if there is an exit from this campaign, this is a very emotionally based campaign. this is not a campaign that can end in -- suddenly in one night and remember those $27 donors. bernie sanders if he is going to exit the campaign has to find a glide path that is acceptable to
them, that feels right to them. all those donors that he has in california, for example, what is the deliberation in the sanders campaign about keeping their votes alive, letting them have an election day in june that matters to them? even if the sanders campaign seems by the beginning of june that they don't have a real way to this nomination, that they don't have a real way of persuading super delegates. even if they see that they may want to stay into it as long as hillary clinton did in 2008. >> we'll talk about the power of repetition, marketing and "the cycle" and all of those people who can recite make america great, build a wall. there's also $27 donor for all of those who have watched a sanders event. quick break for us. we're back with our team after this.
back with the results of the new york primary tonight. the -- i would not blame the republicans for asking for equal time. the empire state has remained bathed in blue since the announcement of hillary clinton's victory on the democratic side. it wasn't red for long in celebration of donald trump's victory over said contest. you hear a lot about the word path, path to the nomination, path to anything ending in numbers. 1237 is the republican path and
a lot of talk tonight and prior to this about how donald trump gets there. that's why steve kornacki's at the board. >> let's take a look. after wisconsin, seems like such a long time now. the conventional wisdom was, that's it, we're going to an open convention. donald trump really does have a path to get this during the primaries. we've been keeping you up on the tabs on what the delegate count in new york looks like. if they'd stop now he'd get 90 give or take one or two. let's say he gets 90. that's going to put him coming out of tonight at 846. remember, trying to get to 1247. what you're seeing here if i can stabilize the screen is what's up next week. what do we know? we know donald trump is leading in all of these states next week. delaware is winner take all. maryland he may lose a congressional district or two. he looks strong here. 17 in pennsylvania. we'll talk about the 54 later. hold that thought. the 17 are winner take all. connecticut if he can clear 50% statewide he can take all 28 of
those. rhode island, very proportional. could be one of the strongest states in the country. not going to get 19 delegates out of there. he could add -- from the things i circled he could easily add 100 next week. we could be sitting at 946 when we finish the month of april. 946. let's play that forward. these are the states that come in may and june. trump starts with 946. where do we go? indiana early may. tough to read. no polling out there. you can make a case for trump or cruz. let's say trump loses it. let's be conservative. puts him up to 955. what do you have the rest of the month? west virginia looks strong. delegates are complicated but let's give him 30. puts him up to 985. west coast, washington proportional, nebraska, let's say that's a cruz state. trump is only getting delegates out of those two states. where would that put him at the end of the month? 1021. june 7th, winner take all new jersey looks really good for donald trump.
that would sit him at 1072. new mexico, let's say he takes 12 out of there. 1084. montana, winner take all, cruz let's say. cruz there. then you've got california, the big wild card. for every district you win out there, let's say it's a good night for trump though. let's say he gets 101 out of california. look what that would do. if he did that, et' be short. you'd say 1205, he's short, open convention. remember what i said, circle pennsylvania. this is the key. this is the biggest single story right now in the republican race. these 54 in pennsylvania, unbound delegates. these are men and women who will run on that primary ballot in pennsylvania next week. they will become free agent delegates at the convention. here's the catch. a lot of them right now, like a majority of them who are running are saying they will honor the
vote in the state or in their district and the polls right now in pennsylvania are showing donald trump ahead overwhelmingly. we talked to one of those unbound delegate candidates this week on the air and he said he intends to honor the vote in the state if he becomes the delegate and he believes the pressure will be enormous on the other unbound delegate to do that. remember, we played it out a little conservatively and we gave donald trump 1204 knowing he needed to get to 1237. this is the wild card. if he gets 2/3 of the unbound delegates from pennsylvania, the polls show him winning that state big, that 1204 could cross 1237 very easily. i'm not giving him indiana. i'm saying he loses i7bd anna. the path for donald trump, there are a couple of different scenari scenarios. >> this also assumes -- it's like the magic trick. you forget the dove is in your assistant's jacket. this also assumes a robust
campaign operation. who was the republican official who today said trump has so little grassroots he's astroturf? this assumes a well-run operation, does it not? >> well, the part of it that -- if donald trump -- if steve is right and if pennsylvania is the key here and donald trump can get to 1237 in terms of a first balloting at the convention, then all of the ways that donald trump has been getting sh shellacked in all of these states, if cruz is taking away all of these states that trump won, that won't matter. >> if he can get there on ballot one then all of the stuff that cruz has been doing to steal -- to take delegates won't matter. is that right, steve? >> no, that's exactly right. i think that gets lost in the reporting on this. we get the states coming in, oh, in this state ted cruz picked off delegates, in that state he picked off delegates. there are a couple of states, colorado was one of them,
wyoming is another. ted cruz outhustled donald trump and he got first ballot convention delegates. most of these you're hearing about, iowa, south carolina, virginia, those states, those are second ballot perspective cruz delegates. they are required under the rules of the party right now to vote for donald trump on the first ballot. if donald trump clears 1237 in this primary process, they're not going to get the chance to turn on him on the convention. >> that's the trump campaign argument. go ahead, play your reindeer games. we'll lose colorado. we'll lose the other places where you're taking our delegates. we're going to get there on the first ballot. >> steve schmidt, why did you have a 1250steel bar in your ha >> this will come down to californ california. 53 congressional districts,
winner take all by congressional district. here's where it gets tricky. not a lot of republicans in nancy pelosi's district in san francisco. not a lot of republicans in maxine waters district in los angeles. so the campaign that is organized to win an overwhelmingly democratic districts, in some cases overwhelmingly hispanic districts, overwhelmingly african-american districts with very few republican votes is going to be the campaign that is going to be able to take those delegates out of those districts. >> can we get a preview of that tonight in new york, right? >> so donald trump is running significantly ahead in california but how will he perform in some of these districts in los angeles, in san francisco? but if donald trump does in california and he has a similar lead in california that he had coming into new york, what he did in new york tonight, then the race will effectively end with the california primary and he'll be the nominee on the first ballot. >> of the first run campaigns do
you think trump will win overall by a large margin? >> he's 20 points ahead. media state, late engagement state. people don't start paying attention in politics in california until very, very late. it's an enormously expensive state. $3 million per week of advertising so no campaign can really afford to do everything that's necessary in the state of california. so the free media narrative will propel forward. i don't think tonight we have talked enough about what i think is a psychically shattering night for ted cruz in that he came in third place in the state of new york. if in fact -- >> he started there -- >> he's the chief alternative to donald trump and he tried to set this up as a two person race. the premise was always if i could get into a two person race with donald trump, i'll be able to beat donald trump. he got into a two person race or so he thought and then he came in third place. >> he lost by double digits to john kasich in addition to
i'm flying tomorrow morning to indiana, i'm going to pennsylvania. i will be all over so we're going to celebrate for about two hours, then early in the morning i get up and we begin working again. thank you, everybody, and thank you, new york. we love new york. we love new york. thank you very much, everybody. thank you. >> donald trump tonight in the tower that bears his name announcing his plans to take the plane that bears his name to indiana which before we're done may bear his name. >> exactly. trumpiana. it's nice this time of year, actually. >> i want to bring in robert costa. an excellent reporter who has excellent sources in this campaign. one of the things we saw a little different from donald trump tonight was him not calling ted cruz lyin'ted instead calling him senator.
is that an accident of tonight's circumstances or is this a sign of things -- of shifts to come? >> reporter: for trump tonight, it continued where he began, trump tower. speaking more low key. trying in his words to be presidential. something he's really avoided doing for months. this is a campaign that has traveled at one speed, raucous rallies, twitter battles. shots at rivals. today you see the trump campaign moving back and playing at a different speed. according to people close to trump, he's working with new advisors, republican veterans, paul manaford asking, what do i need to do to have a bigger message. not easy for trump but that's part of the project tonight. >> robert, that implies that there's a diagnosis that there was something wrong with the trump campaign.
and, granted, they did lose wisconsin. other than that they are broadly speaking winning over and over and over again. do they think that something was wrong? is new york with this massive victory the right kind of place to herald a shift? >> i spoke to someone who had a conversation with trump the other day, a close friend, and he said, trump didn't think something was necessarily wrong but the thing he did think was wrong was the delegate accumulation. he didn't think he had the organization at the state convention. he thought the campaign was too small, not getting counselled from many people. he wasn't building relationships across the party. he wasn't acting in the big way a nominee or presumptive nominee acts. he was trying to get people to get him moving in that direction. >> robert costa of washington post. robert, thank you. appreciate you being with us tonight. >> we want to bring back judge beginsberg. >> can we call him judge ginsberg? >> sure, counselor. >> counselor.
he's being modest. counselor, you just made a pint to us of following steve kornacki's presentation on how we get to donald trump first ballot having the numbers. what did you -- what was the cod did i sill y -- codicil you just added to us? >> how he would get over the number is absolutely true. the issue is you won't know where the pennsylvania unbound delegates are until they actually vote on the first ballot. that means the republican national committee doesn't have to given the keys to the convention to donald trump beforehand and it makes for a much more open rules committee, credentials committee process if there is not a nominee who has locked up the 1237. so that's the tension in the numbers as the votes come. >> when you say the keys to the convention, you don't mean the
door key. >> well, sort of. >> what do you mean? >> what usually happens, especially at this time of t the cycle is the campaign comes in and takes over the programming of the convention because it's all about presenting their candidate in the best light. in this instance without any candidate having a numerical majority, that task will still fall to the republican national committee. there's a huge difference in the way the national committee might plan a program without the nomination being firmly determined as a candidate would. so, for example, which first lady gives the address on the first night of the convention if you don't have a nominee and don't know? so the whole programming aspect putting it together can remain in balance. >> so clint eastwood cannot expect his second straight invitation to appear?
>> if we hadn't timed it so well clint eastwood wouldn't have had his time. >> the scenario of trump getting close. we've heard so much talk about if we're close, if we're almost there, if we're knocking on the door, don't try denying us that nomination. that's what you're talking about. >> yes. and it's a very good point and the trump people do have a point. the question is how you play out the process. again, who's in control? will the republican national committee give control of the program, control of the convention, control of the seats over to a campaign that has not yet passed the numerical majority in this situation or is it still considered an open convention? and how does that decision get made? that's why getting to 1237 on june 7th is so important. >> ben ginsberg, thank you so much. this is why we say to our viewers, you look away from this
we are back as we look at lower manhattan. while deconstructing this night. >> yes, indeed. very quickly. one of the things that will make republicans very happy about tonight, regardless of whether they're excited about donald trump having this big victory in new york is that once again republicans have record turnout. republicans have broken the record for turnout in new york state tonight and once again on the same night democrats have not broken their record.
it's a pattern we've seen over and over and over again throughout this whole primary season. in terms of that republican victory, steve kornacki's been looking at the scale and the shape of it in terms of figuring out howell donald trump did tonight. >> yeah, it's big. i want to tell you, i have the best stat of the night. i'm going to save it for the end of this. >> okay. >> let me give you an update on the delegate situation. >> teasing us. >> there you go. little tv technique i've picked up. 95 delegates at stake in new york. where's trump pulling from? needs 50% in every district to get all three. he's going to fall short in the albany district. he'll get 2 there, kasich will get 1 and in the syracuse district. he'll lose two districts there. zoom in on new york city the districts are so tiny. looks like down here in the tenth district he'll lose a delegate to kasich there. there are two outstanding ones. this is ridiculous. in the 12th district kasich is leading trump a tiny margin. won't be called tonight. if that holds, trump will only
get one delegate, kasich will get two. the 13th, this is crazy. it's a tie. trump's at 50% flat. again, not going to call it tonight. he gets literally one more vote he gets all three. right now p-9 delegates. i tease. your stat of the night in the 21st congressional district. in the 15th in new york, 924. >> wow. thank you. >> steve kornacki at the big board. we owe for this hour a last round comment if nicole has pulled herself together about what we have witnessed tonight, nicole, in studio. >> i'm told by someone who spoke with trump after the results were in that he sees the finish line now, that he must look at this map the way steve kornacki does. he sees the path, and he views both kasich and cruz as obstacles and i think you can expect him to keep the pedal to
the medal to get to the finish line. >> i think what we've seen over the last two weeks, i think there was a confusion in the trump campaign that understanding where the line was between we're winning because of or we're winning in spite of. i think they've figured out where that in spite of line is. you've seen tonight a new tone from donald trump, a new type of temperament. it wasn't lying ted, it was senator cruz. very much on message. so over the last two weeks we've seen donald trump come from the worst moment in the campaign following wisconsin fighting with heidi cruz, going after megyn kelly again, badly off message to his biggest victory so far in this contest and now with a clear path ahead to 1237 delegates, a first ballot nomination and the walls closing in now pretty mightily on the ted cruz campaign. >> people come and go so quickly around here, our thanks to steve and eugene and lawrence and ben.