tv All In With Chris Hayes MSNBC May 3, 2016 12:00am-1:01am PDT
and donald trump. we'll forget about the primaries for a while. "all in with kris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in" -- ted cruz's closing arguments amidst signs his support in indiana is falling. >> carly's perfectly nice. by the way she fell off the stage, did anybody see that? and cruz didn't do anything. >> then the gop nightmare scenario. >> she ate like a pig. i'd like her right in that fat ugly face of hers. >> i'll support the candidate regardless. >> could trump help democrats retake the senate? as hillary clinton pivots to the general election, bernie sanders makes a bold prediction. >> the convention will be a contested contest. >> james sanders is here to discuss the campaign's road forward. and the comedian in chief.
>> gop chairman reince priebus is here as well. >> president obama roasts the rook at the correspondents' dinner. >> congratulations on all your success. the republican party, the nomination process. it's all going great. >> one of the people who helped him write that routine will join me when "all in" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. tomorrow's primary in indiana may be all that stands between donald trump and the republican presidential nomination. and tonight he and rival ted cruz are holding dueling rallies in different parts of the hoosier state in a final effort to motivate supporters before the polls open just ten hours from now. for cruz and the never trump movement, the stakes could not be higher. >> the entire country is depending on indiana right now. it really is. it's a fundamental choice which direction the country goes. i think this is a moment where the entire country is relying on indiana.
to save us from going over this cliff. >> cruz had been hoping for a repeat of his triumph last month in wisconsin. the local indiana never trump coalition that boosted him, the trump coalition, never trump coalition, failed to materialize in indiana. cruz's attempts to shake up the race over the last week, announcing an alliance with john kasich and picking carly fiorina as his theoretical running mate, seem to have backfired. trump lead busy 15 points in the new nbc news/"wall street journal"/merris poll of likely republican voters in indiana. if that margin holds tomorrow he could sweep every one of the state's 57 delegates which are awarded by a combination of winner take all for the state, and winner take all for each congressional district. also 58% of likely gop voters in indiana said they disapprove of the cruz/kasich alliance. it won't stapp cruz from turning to ever more desperate last-ditch tactics to try to win over indiana voters.
like say directly confronting a group of angry trump supporters protesting one of his campaign events today. >> asked kasich to drop out, it's your trump, take your own words. >> i'm curious, when donald doesn't get to 1237 are you going to call on him to drop out? >> donald's going to get more than 1237. >> you know on the wall that donald told the "new york times" editorial staff he's not going to deport anyone? >> once again, lyin' ted! >> that came just a day after cruz reprimanded a kid who was heckling him at a rally in northern indiana. >> thank you, son. you know, i appreciate your sharing your views. you know, one of the things that hopefully someone has told you is that children should actually speak with respect. in my household, when a child behaves that way, they get a spanking.
[ cheers and applause ] >> i should note it's a matter of public record by ted cruz that he hits his kids. at another event earlier in the day, cruz's new running mate carly fiorina had a mishap while introducing the candidate and his family. >> help me welcome your next first family, heidi cruz, your next first lady, carolyn and katherine, and the next president of the united states -- ted cruz! >> today donald trump, renowned cherisher of women, scolded cruz for failing to help fiorina get back up. >> she fell off the stage, did anybody see that? cruz didn't do anything! even i would have helped her, okay? they just showed it to me and i said, wow, that's really cruel. she fell off. she just went down, she went down a long way, right? and she went down right in front of him and he was talking, kept
talking, he didn't even look like -- that was a weird deal. >> the same time ted cruz is playing up the high stakes of tomorrow's vote, he's trying to limit expectations of his own performance at the ballot and make it all about the convention in cleveland. witnesses interviewed today with nbc's hallie jackson. >> nobody is going to get to 1237. i'm not going to get to 1237, but neither is donald trump. >> 1235? >> so we're headed to a contested convention. and at a contested convention, the battle's going to be who can earn the support of a majority of the delegates elected by the people. donald knows that he cannot earn a majority at the convention of the delegates who have been elected by the people. if you can't earn a majority, you can't be the nominee. it means you can't unite the party. you'd be an incredibly weak general election candidate. >> it's true the cruz campaign has done a much, much better laying the groundwork, getting supporters in state after state. the cruz camp won 10 of the 13 delegate slots up for grabs at virginia's gop state convention
in virginia, despite finishing third in the state's primary behind trump and marco rubio. with trump shattering expectations in last week's northeast primaries, bringing him ever closer to 1237, some of cruz's delegates may be experiencing a change of heart. in north dakota where delegates are technically unbound but cruz supporters won a majority of the slots, a delegate named jim puman, who's committed to cruz, told "the national view," "i think last tuesday's vote spooked a lot of people." donald trump has a lot of support across the country, last tuesday winning five states, one heck of a showing. in an interview with "new york times" he said, "i'm not in the anybody but trump campaign, i'm in the anybody but hillary campaign." it's not just republican delegates who are coming around to trump. he's picked up three more congressional endorsements in the last week. now according to the associated press, republican leaders are beginning to make peace with trump as the nominee. one of trump's supporters in the house used almost the exact same language as the north dakota delegate.
it's not never trump, it's never hillary, wake up and smell the coffee. katy tur, i watched a little bit of the trump rally, it seemed that they're feeling pretty confident. >> reporter: the trump rally's just started behind me here in south wend. they're feeling extraordinarily confident about indiana. i spoke with donald trump's campaign manager a moment ago and they're feeling good, especially seeing that they are up 15 points in the latest nbc news/merris poll. they're running a general election campaign they tell me despite ted cruz and john kasich still being in this race, they're looking ahead to how to take on hillary clinton. today when donald trump had a lunch at shapiro's in indianapolis with the infamous anti-clinton author ed kline, that should be an indication they're trying to figure a way to frame their attacks going forward. they're already trying to get bernie sanders appeal out there, saying that he has been treated
unfairly by the dnc and that his supporters should go to donald trump, who is also an outsider. but indiana again, that is the task at hand. it is tomorrow and they do believe they're going to take out a win here. but it's not a must-win like it is for ted cruz. even with that the campaign thinks they'll be able to go on and easily make to it 1237 by the time california votes on june 7th. >> katy tur at the trump rally with lusty boos in the background, it wouldn't be a trump rally if there weren't any. joining me, nbc's hallie jackson. hallie, it's looking tough. 15 points today. there was a sense maybe they could bring back the wisconsin magic, has not materialized so far. glenn beck on stage trying to work that magic. calling for a fast. what's the thinking there? >> listen, i think there's a sense within the campaign based on conversations i just had with the senior adviser that they know tomorrow is not going to go
the way they want it to go. that it will probably be a tough night for them. that it's going to be possibly a single-digit loss. there's pushback against the idea that the margin will be as big as our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll shows, which is a 15-point lead by donald trump right now. but there's a sense that cruz will hang on until there is no longer, as he put it in that interview we did, a viable path to the nomination. that means trump hitting 1237. why? why stay in? as was phrased to me, you never know. the idea within the campaign is that trump is such a wild card, there's no reason, they believe, for cruz to get out of this race. they want to be able to offer conservatives a choice in case something happens and trump's candidacy does fall apart. people have been talking about what trump could do to lose the nomination since, what, august, july, even earlier. maybe since that moment he came down those escalators back in june. so there's a question as to sort of how realistic that is. but cruz tomorrow night, i don't think you'll see him come out
and give some sort of concession speech if he loses. he will continue to fight, june 7th the big day when trump could lock up the nomination and if he does, that is when you will see a real reassessment within the cruz campaign. >> hallie jackson, thank you very much. joining me, former rnc chairman and msnbc political analyst michael steele and charlie pierce, writer for "esquire." michael, i'm bemoussed as i watch the never trump forces start to maybe flirt a little bit with, maybe trump. maybe eventually trump. this is mr. crystal who is a flagship member of the never trumpers answering a question earlier today. >> and there are things trump can do to win you over? >> i mean, i guess never say never. on the one hand, i'm never trump. on the other hand, never say never. i'll leave it there. >> fair enough. >> this is the writing on the wall, michael. everyone loves a winner.
>> that is so precious. that is so precious because he flipped out on me in a conversation we had about this very thing, about 30 days ago. and he was like, no way, no way! i'm like, okay, dude, just wait. >> i wish we had that on tape, i'd play that in a heartbeat if you had that on tape. >> gosh no. but this is where they are. they have been long-suffering on this slow death march to nowhere. and meanwhile, the base of the party is like, dudes, we're over here. we're going with this guy. and this reconciliation within the party has probably been one of the most amusingly frustrating things to watch. because the base has been saying for some time, as you know, this guy, we like him. yeah, we don't like everything he says, we don't like everything he does. but he's the kind of fighter we want for this fight. and there has been nothing since the beginning of this campaign
that anyone other than donald trump has been able to do to slow his role and that's the reality of it. he has moved this campaign to the point now where we're at our last wall, our last firewall, our last bridge, our last whatever. in indiana tomorrow night. and there's nowhere else to go except to get on board and that's what you're seeing. >> charlie what i'm looking for tomorrow, the polling out today that has him over 50%, it was one thing he wins over 50% in new york. it's another when he clears high 50s in the northeast which is sort of the ancestral home of trumpism, if you will. in the case of indiana this is not the kind of place you'd expect him to clean up or to romp. if he clears 50 tomorrow that seems a clear statement from the gop base about where they are and how ready they are for this. >> yeah, first of all, i'd like to say that it was hard to hear bill kristol talk over the sound of the cock crowing in the background.
however, you're right. i spent a day with the cruz surrogate team yesterday, which was god help us louis gohmert and carly fiorina and heidi cruz and mike lee. and outside of a slice of the evangelical vote, and not a very big slice anymore, there's no support for him in indiana right now. there's no reason to vote for the guy. you saw him today. this is diet who was the ivy league debating champion and he was arguing with a guy in fake oakley sunglasses and a fake weather-beaten sweatshirt whose entire riposte was, uh-uh! no! i expect to see ted cruz on a street corner outside ft. wayne with a sign saying "will debate for food." >> by the way, that was a biblical reference from charlie pierce, anyone who accuses us of being godless liberals. jesuit-educated michael steel knew. so this was the other thing. the question that cruz is going to play.
right now i think you're seeing calculations about people's future in the party. i want to play you ted cruz and chuck todd going around and around on this question of the fundamental never trump question. that's the real thing that hangs the air right now, take a listen. >> if he's the nominee, i take it you can't support him anymore, can you? >> i believe if the republican party nominates donald trump, we will lose to hillary -- >> are you going to support him? >> we will lose -- >> i understand what you believe in the republican party. can you support him? can you tell your delegates -- >> chuck what i'm going to do is -- >> lay down your arms and support trump? >> chuck -- >> you may not. >> i recognize that many in the media would love for me to vend tore donald trump. >> if it's a time for choosing, say it. for him? or against him? as the nominee? it's a time for choosing, is it not? >> chuck, you're welcome to lobby for support for trump as much as possible. >> let the record show you have not taken a position on whether
you can support trump if he's the nominee? fair enough? >> let the record show you tried very, very hard to get me to commit to supporting trump. the record will show that. >> michael, what's that about? >> i don't know. bottom line is, just say no. nancy reagan said it. just say no. this is the problem no one can take it seriously at this stage, just say no. you can't support the guy? just say pitt that's been the problem from the beginning. you've got to be in it all the way or not. and there's a small group of intellectuals who i think both feel it on principle basis, they really do believe it, they hate trump, and also feel insulated from the consequences of that. aside from that, charlie, like you're saying, that's not a huge constituency, never has been. >> no, it's not. i think that the historical irony of course is that the very fact that ted cruz is a figure of national politics at all is a failure of the republican establishment, especially in texas. >> michael steele and charlie pierce, thank you very much, both. could democrats win back control of the senate this
november if donald trump is the nominee? a look at that. plus president obama lets loose in his final white house correspondents' dinner. how humor played a strategic part of obama's legacy. after conflicting messages on bernie sanders' plan going forward, the candidate offered clarity and saddam hussein ascenders joitds me.
in the last few weeks from have been conflicting messages about the bernie sanders campaign between now and the convention in philadelphia. it was suggested to rachel maddow the party insiders should follow the will of the voters. but campaign manager jeff weaver has argued superdelegates are free to support the candidate of their choice and even override the will of the voters, giving sanders a potential path to victory even if he's trailing clinton in the popular vote and among pledged delegates. yesterday the candidate himself offered his own thoughts.
>> it is virtually impossible for secretary clinton to reach the majority of convention delegates by june 14th with pledged delegates alone. she will need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in philadelphia. in other words, the convention will be a contested contest. >> sanders says overall he wants to flip superdelegates who have already endorsed clinton, especially in states where he won. superdelegates who support clinton should switch allegiance to him. as greg sergeant notes in "the washington post" the math doesn't work for him at least as of now. tonight sanders is in indiana. perhaps showing how confident the clinton campaign is, she's on a two-day tour targeting voters in appalachia with stops in west virginia, kentucky, and ohio. kentucky and west virginia will hold their primaries later this
month. ohio, on the other hand, has already voted, back in march. it is of course a crucial swing state that could decide the general election in november. i spoke with jane sanders, spouse of bernie sanders, and i began by asking whether she could point to a precedent for what sanders is now calling for. >> we're doing it bernie's way as always. of course there has been precedent. teddy kennedy with jimmy carter. hillary clinton with barack obama. so the fact is that it's not over until it's over. neither hillary nor bernie will get the requisite number of pledged delegates to be able to wrap up the nomination before the convention. so we go to the convention. >> right, so if you go to the convention, i mean, that was also true back in 2008 if you name checked hillary clinton, who lost to barack obama. once it became clear. it didn't happen until june. i think she dropped out first or second week of june that she was not going to be able to surpass that lead. she did not essentially force a roll call vote at the convention.
1980, that's exactly what ted kennedy did. and there was a pretty active floor battle. his folks trying to win over votes, ultimately that was unsuccessful. but there's a lot of people who look at that example and say, carter went on to get his clock cleaned. and that kind of terrifies them. because they think that played some role in essentially weakening the eventual nominee. >> well, as i remember that, it was a little bit rambunctious, shall we say, that convention. we will fight on the issues. and there's going to be a fight on the issues no matter what at the convention. you know, bernie is very strong on going to a $15 minimum wage, stopping fracking, taking climate change very, very seriously. he wants to have electoral reform so that one person, one vote, actually is carried out. both in the primaries and in the general election. he wants to stop the revolving
door between corporate contributors and the executive branch. we will be having great discussions. i think they'll be good for the american people to hear those discussions. because i don't think there's discussions are going to be happening on the republican side. and that's what we're hearing about as we go around the country and talk to people. >> i want to give you a chance to respond to critics of yours. paul krugman in the "new york times" has been really hammering the sanders campaign. there are others who basically say that the sanders campaign, by soliciting donations to make bernie sanders the nominee, is essentially running a con on its donors. what do you say? >> really? what is john kasich doing, what that is ted cruz been doing? no, we're running on the issues. you know that. i don't take paul krugman seriously anymore. i used to. i think there are a lot of other, better economists and people who seem to have better critical thinking. so that's a disappointment. but i don't read him so i can't tell you what he says anymore.
i do think that we are running on the issues and bernie -- we just had a fantastic rally this afternoon, we're in indianapolis, we're having another one. everywhere we go, people say, please keep fighting for us, you're our voice, don't give up. we owe it to the people that have been part of this movement to take it all the way to the end and to work really hard. everybody knows, anything can happen in politics. and especially this year, chris. i mean, if anybody had said to you a year ago, we would be where we are today -- not just bernie. of course nobody believed a year ago or any time in between in the national media that he had a shot. -- you still don't but we do. >> the five final candidates would have been predicted by zero people a year ago. >> exactly. >> i will give you that. jane sanders, always a pleasure, thank you very much. still to come, president obama delivers a literal mike
this year i once again observed my annual tradition of skipping the white house correspondents association dinner to go on a date with my wife -- happy birthday, babe. the date ended early enough that we did get to watch and for the eighth straight year president obama's performance was not something you wanted to miss. the president roasted the roam with a combination of deadpan charm and barely concealed scorn. here's a bit of what he had to say about the republicans who showed up.
>> gop chairman, reince priebus, is here as well. glad to see that you feel that you've earned a night off. congratulations on all your success. the republican party, the nomination process. it's all going great. keep it up. just look at the confusion over the invitations to tonight's dinner. guests were asked to check whether they wanted steak or fish. but instead a whole bunch of you wrote in "paul ryan." that's not an option, people. steak or fish. you may not like steak or fish. but that's your choice. >> president's use of humor has been a key political tool in an era in which audiences are
participating in comic viral videos to encourage young people to sign up for health care coverage. >> i'm president barack obama. and i too want to slow jam the news. if i ran a third time it would be like doing a third "hangover" movie. didn't really work out very well, did it? >> every person you talk to is putting on an act. a total show. >> it's a problem. >> have to know, what is it like to be the last black president? >> seriously? >> nation, as you know, i, stephen colbert, have never cared for our president. >> thanks, obama. >> have you heard of healthcare.gov? >> here we go. okay, let's get this out of the way. what'd you come here to plug? >> i could call a nuclear
submarine right here from this -- i bet you don't have that. >> i don't have that. >> yeah. it's a cool feature. plus seat warmers. so between the nuclear submarine thing and the -- >> well, you've got that. >> mr. president? >> can i live? >> watch theed spider bite. >> that's the other hand. >> it's everywhere. >> obama out. >> joining me now, john lovett, speechwriter in the white house, still pitches in, helped write all eight of the president's white house correspondents' dinner speeches including the one the president delivered this weekend. all right, john. here's my first question. where is the line? how do you figure out where the line is? the whole schtick here is, the president's saying things he wouldn't normally say, he's telling uncomfortable truths, he said some things about hillary clinton that were pretty rough. >> that's not rough. i mean, i've seen rough, that was not rough. i think, look, when we started
working on these speeches in 2009, we were trying to figure out how -- what's the tone we're going to set at these correspondents dinners? i remember we did a draft. it was actually the president who was like, guys? i can go a little harder. we don't have to -- and you know what, he was right. he's got the chops for this. >> it occurred to me also it ends up being a situation -- i think the whole night, even the larry wilmore as well, where a person is just insulated -- just say things they think are truths. >> that's the best. >> the reince priebus thing wasn't even a joke. it's like, you're terrible at your job and i'm telling you this in front of everyone. >> the best jokes he has ever done, you read it after, what exactly was the joke there? we did a joke one year where he's like, you think i should get a drink with mitch
mcconnell? why don't you get a drink with mitch mcconnell? that's not a joke, that's just something he doesn't want to do. >> what about this idea of the president and his bully pulpit at this time? so i think there's this idea of there's the fireside chat, there was kennedy and the sort of dawn of network television. there's a sense of gravitas that surrounds the office. net you guys and people around the president have made these decisions to put them in all sorts of positions that are not filled with gravitas, like talking between zach galifianakis between two ferns. >> that doesn't seem presidential to you? you go where the people are. you rob a bank because that's where the money is. there's such an incredible thicket of garbage that you have to cut through to reach anybody. listen, i don't know if you know this, but cable news kind of sucks. >> are you doing your own correspondents dinner schtick on my show? >> i do it 24 hours a day, i'm insufferable. it's great to be here, chris. >> thanks, john. >> but look -- this president is really good at this.
i don't think it's a coincidence that a president that campaigned in a new way and reached new audiences is also the kind of person who understands how to do this and how to reach people in a funny way. and it's just -- whether it's cable news or things that go viral on twitter or facebook, comedy does work. we do the state of the union. we made a dumb joke about salmon. right? i don't want to get into the details of the joke. because it was awesome. but afterwards, the next day, npr called people or somebody called people and up did a poll, what do you remember from the speech? this was a speech about the economy. >> right. >> the only thing people remembered was the word salmon. so i think this stuff breaks through. when it's getting harder and harder, when news is atomized, when people are so mistrustful of everything they see -- i used to -- remember when bush said that thing about how it's hard to get through the filter? he kind of was making a good point. it's hard to break through. comedy does break through.
people share it, people want to do it, it's entertaining. it's a good way to get across a message to people. >> it's interesting to me that going back through this, the moment when he did most of these was around healthcare.gov. >> right. >> the president was almost just hat in hand selling this thing. >> right. >> it was like he wouldn't say no to anything, they just wanted people to enroll. >> right. and if you remember, when he did comedian in cars, and he just says, i think this was the talk about healthcare.gov, usually that's what i do in these things. >> that's right, exactly. john lovett, great pleasure, thanks a lot. >> that was fun, thanks. could democrats get a boost this november big enough to win back the senate with help from donald trump? why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions
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the democratic virginia governor terry mcauliffe restored the voting rights for 206,000 ex-felons. >> i believe it is time to cast off virginia's troubled history of injustice and embrace an honest, clean process for restoring the rights of these men and women. and so today i will sign an order restoring the civil and voting rights of every single individual who has completed his or her sentence as of this day, april 22nd, 2016. >> according to the national conference of state legislators, in 38 states and the the district of columbia, most ex-felons automatically gain the right to vote upon completion of their sentence. in some states, sentence is defined as just prison time. in other states, sentence means prison plus parole and/or probation. governor mcauliffe's executive order brought virginia in line with the vast majority of the country.
virginia republicans like state senate republican liter thomas norman have two main complaints, saying the action is a belate can't political ploy to help a democrat win virginia in the presidential election. they charge governor mcauliffe's executive action exceeds his authority because voting rights of ex-felons are set out in the state constitution of virginia. while they may be right about that, i'm not sure that's their best argument. i'll explain in 60 seconds.
governor terry mcauliffe restored voting rights of 206,000 ex-felons who have paid their debt to sea site. virginia republicans will sue to stop it. the governor's spokesman said in a statement these virginians are qualified to vote, they deserve a voice, not more partisan schemes to disenfranchise them. that is not empty rhetoric as detailed in "the atlantic." the governor's executive action marks an exorcism for one of jim crow's last vest vestibles in the constitution of virginia, decades of post-reconstruction, white supremacist,
segregationist efforts reflected in the virginia constitution. words a designed not just to maintain segregation as the law the land but actively keep african-americans from voting through means that included but were not limited to literacy tests and poll taxes. as detailed during virginia's constitution at convention the suppression of the black vote was openly discussed. "i told the people of my county before they sent me here i intended as far as in me lay to disenfranchise every negro that i could." that's what r.l. gordon told his fellow delegates. late 1960s, supreme court decisions and the the voting rights act of 1965, most of that part of the constitution had been struck down. but left unscathed was the provision barring felons from voting for life. according to the sentencing project, felony disenfranchisement policies have a disproportionate impact on communities of color.
back in the vietnam days the berigan brothers were big, attracted tens of thousands of people. now you're not as big. you do not attract the same attention. is that hard for you? >> no. i don't think we ever felt our conscience was tied to the other end of a tv cord. i think we've tried for a number of years to do what was right because it was right. >> father daniel berrigan, a towering figure in american political life, at one time a celebrity, died on saturday in the bronx at the age of 94. as a jesuit priest and anti-war activist, he and brother philip organized one of the most famous protests of the vietnam era.
may 1968, the brothers led a group that walked into a u.s. selective service office in suburban maryland, seized hundreds of draft records, and burned them in the parking lot using homemade napalm. as the "new york times" recounts, all these years later when the police came, the trespassers were praying in the parking lot, waiting peacefully to be led into the van. berrigans and their accomplices inspired the larger anti-war movement and the brothers were eventually convicted of destroying government property and sentenced to three years in federal prison each. both brothers went on the lam, earning them a spot on the fbi's ten most wanted list and the cover of "time" magazine. they were april helpeded with daniel serving 18 months in prison. following his release he kept doing the exact same work. leading demonstrations, getting arrested, using civil disobedience to protest war, racism and nuclear proliferation. he was an inspiration to advocates, social justice, generations of catholics, including my father, a former jesuit sell fairian among them.
he was a poet, a teacher, found a place in our pop culture, the radical priest of the paul simon song "me and julio down in the schoolyard." cast as a jesuit in the 1986 movie "the mission." what endured was his steadfast vision and commitment to bearing witness. his later work, ministering to aids patients when mainstream society viewed them with terror and contempt. even took part in the occupy wall street movement a few years back. daniel berrigan's work never stopped. as he wrote in his memoir, that work, beginning with his act of protest, effected a larger movement. "nothing can be done! how often we had heard that gasp, the last of the human soul. indeed something could be done, and was, and would be." daniel berrigan was 94 years old.
today, president obama sat down with six local tv stations across the country to push for a senate vote on his supreme court nominee. he sat down with milwaukee, kansas city and others. all those ciies have one thing in common, states where republican senators are up for re-election on november 8th. 6 of 24 seats republicans are defending. democrats are defending just 10 seats and need to flip five gop seats to take back the senate.
even months ago heading into this election democrats had chance of picking up some senate seats. now, as the trump phenomenon continues to take shape, is there open fretting from republicans they could lose control of the senate. a new ad out of arkansas senate race shows just why the gop is worried. the web ad released by democrat connor aldridge will likely only play on facebook gives us a snapshot what these down ballot races will look like with donald trump at the top of the ticket. >> she ate like a pig. i'd look in that fat ugly face of hers. >> once sent a picture of herself with the words the face of a dog written on it. >> the boob job is terrible. they look like two light bulbs come ing out of a body. >> coming out of her whatever. >> pattern flat-chested is very hard to be a 10.
>> you don't think you could get it up for her? >> i think i'd have a hard time. i don't find her attractive. >> i'll support the candidate regardless who you pick, donald trump it certainly would be a lot better presidency. >> joining me, analysts and supporting pro-choice woman candidates and they have endorsed hillary clinton. i want to come to you in a second about that ad and the strategy here. before we get to that -- you seem anxious to talk about that. before we get to that, harry, what do we know about the relationship between the margins of the presidential election and how much we can predict what that swing in the senate is. is there a fairly straightforward relationship? you win by five points you get this many seats, win by 10 points you get this many? >> not necessarily.
there is an increasingly strong relationship the last few cycles what the presidential election is in a state and the swing. in 2014, 75% of variation of senate results of states and how the president did in 2012 in those states. >> meaning increasingly, it's this case, as we get more ridgedly polarized, you get voting red states vote for republican statewide and blue states vote democrat statewide and particularly true in a presidential year. >> that's true. you look at the map where president obama is going, missouri and iowa, those weren't on anybody's radar. chuck grassley a household name in iowa, talking on the phone and doing tv hits, that suggests those states could be in play not anything republicans want. >> if that this is case -- obviously democrats are feeling their oats on this because of the headwinds for republicans, one question is ads like that, to what extent can the personal
things that people might find odious about donald trump be text to candidates running for senate -- be connected to candidates running for senate. it seems easier onto a policy or platform, to they all report the budget and this guy is a pig and chuck grassley is running for senate. how much can you pull that off. it makes it's easier when every single one of the republicans we are attempting to knock out in 2016 is willing to support trump and wants him to nominate the next supreme court justice. that seems like a fairly easy link there. it's more important than women's autonomy or the white house and women absolutely understand that. they're stuck with him. there's this compounding factor, all those seats you mentioned democrats are challening republican incumbents for the senate, out of 8 of the 9 most com competitive, six are women. it's not like he's polling from the '80s, he said it yesterday.
you will see a democratic woman for senate. >> the top places they're vulnerable it seems to me would be wisconsin, illinois and new hampshire, in all those places you have a republican incumbent and states fairly reliable, illinois, quite reiably blue, all of them are essentially products of the 2010 electorate, a very different than we project. >> exactly. you look at the state of illinois -- >> the fact there is a republican in that seat is amazing. >> it's amazing. that is a state that will have more minorities this time around. kirk barely won in 2010. he's probably already a goner. his own polls show he's trailing tammy duck worth and you go
through the states one by one, wow, this is easy to get to the number of seats necessary for democrats to take control. >> and illinois probably the most imperilled and watching the behavior of mark kirk an indication of what we will see more of. duckworth served in iraq and the department of affairs. he will not go to the convention and one of those to say meet with merrick garland and first one to say, get a vote. you will see him trying to distance himself from both the national party and trump. >> absolutely. they will try. mark kirk also called tammy duckworth a naive fool and spent all her time picking out dresses for the event. and most of them don't know how to talk to or about women. we all know the most effective messaing around an election is being able to use an opponent's
words in their own voice where you can see the video of them saying it. the trouble here is what to choose from, not where to find it. >> here's my question for you. one interesting lesson to me from the primary so far is the diminishing marginal value of each ad, each dollar of tv spending. it seems to produce diminishing returns. do you expect it in the general? >> in north carolina, debra ross running against richard burr, she's not very well-known and richard burr doesn't have that high name recognition either. >> she's tied. >> exactly. she's tied. you will see whatever the ads are this kind of ad spending play a bit role. >> down ticket ads make much more of a difference. >> thank you for joining me. that is all for this evening. "the rachel maddow show" starts right now. good evening, rachel. >> good evening, chris, thanks my friend. it's called an automated dialing announing device.
did i get that right. automated dialing announing device. when you get a phone call, pick up the phone and the voice you hear when you answer the phone is something that is not emanating from a live person, it's a recording or like a robot voice or something. that means congratulations, you have been contacted by an automatic dialing announing device. in 1988, the great state of indiana banned that. the idea was sort of a consumer protection thing. the law was aimed mostly at easing people's annoyance with telemarketers, people calling in the middle of dinner trying sell you a time share somewhere. when indiana passed what is an arguably the toughest law banning these kinds of unsolicited phone calls from machines, the ban didn't narrowly target telemarketers