tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC May 3, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm PDT
of those karate blocks so you can show your feelings. >> here we go. our clock says ten seconds to go until the 7:00 eastern time hour when all polls in indiana are closed. we can make our first characterizations for the indiana primary. here you have it. in the republican party, sorry we're starting -- let's go to the left. here you have it. donald trump is the projected winner of the indiana primary on the republican side. more about those delegates in a moment. you might have seen this over on the right. democratic primary, too early to call between hillary clinton and bernie sanders with a scant 7% in. that is our characterization at 7:00 p.m. >> 7% is an important number because it's so low there. one thing to keep in mind about indiana is there's very little polling. there's been some polling over
the last two weeks. there was no polling in the state up until two weeks ago. that's this part because of restrictive law. we have heard from the clinton campaign that they don't expect to win in indiana. we have heard confidence from the sanders campaign they expect to win. the public polling is available. there's very little of it. showed a small clinton lead. that too early to call results on the democratic side, that had legitimate suspense to it. ted cruz losing at the poll closing on the republican side. donald trump being proclaimed projected as the winner right at the moment the polls close is a terrible sign for the ted cruz campaign. if this were any normal year it would be ever expectation that ted cruz would drop out tonight because of this result. i don't think that anybody expects that tonight. >> nope. >> not because it wouldn't be a deserved result but this race is too weird for people to follow normal course of action. >> note the name we have yet to
utter is john kasich. more on that later this evening. chris matthews in washington. it was said to and about the cruz campaign, if you can't beat trump in indiana, where are you going to beat him remaining on this calendar? >> yeah, i think he said himself many time, he had to win it. it was a necessary condition. he lost after saying he had to win. i think his miscalculation and this was beautifully put out together in the new york times the other day that the strategy of being the last man standing, the last opponent standing. by the time you're the last person standing, the front-runner has gotten such momentum it will continue and you will get less support. your support be not grow because you're the last one standing opini. it will shrink. watch the democratic race. i think it will be very close.
hillary could win. i think being a winner, helps you win. trump has gotten momentum. it's real. i think he will go to california and win this thing. he'll have that 1237. i think it's over. >> chris matthews for us in washington. in terms of this trump win tonight, what we're watching now in terms of whether or not chris is right about when donald trump will clench this nomination, what we're watching tonight is the scale of donald trump's win. we know he is projected as the winner of the state overall. how many delegates will he get? for that we go to steve. >> we can take you through what we're getting at the exit poll. this tells you the story tonight. ted cruz has counted in every single state on evangelical voters. it's processing. if you saw it on the screen right there, it was -- all
right. it was 48-45%. donald trump won right now in our exit poll. he won the white evangelical poll tonight. this is supposed to be the bedrock of ted cruz campaign. the fight that donald trump fights him to a draw, maybe even wins the vote, that tells you what you need to know. we talked about the delegate situation. trump, by winning this he gets 30 of those 57. ted cruz also, there's the one congressional district. big evangelical. the earlier has donald trump leading the district. that's a very big bellwether. trump is probably heading for a complete nine to nine sweep. that would mean all 57 delega s delegates. >> there's no one better with or without technology by his side. the word inside has no doubt filtered through the building and they will be moving, i
presume, cameras and journalists inside to hear from donald trump. >> we're going to be allowed to go inside in just a couple of minutes after the secret service sweep is done. if we were wondering what donald trump's tone would be, i know we were wondering about that, he just tweeted saying wow, lying ted cruz really went whacko today. made all sorts of crazy charges. not very presidential and he ended it with trump's normal ending. sad, exclamation point. this is a big night for donald trump. it's a big night for his campaign. make no mistake, they will come out and they will say they are -- he's going to say he's the presumptive nominee. he's going to say it tonight. they are running a general election campaign regardless of whether ted cruz drops out tonight or john kasich drops out tonight. they feel confident now they
will get to that magic number of 1237. they are not only 200 delegates away. that's an easy surmountable hill to climb to get there with what the schedule looks like going forward especially when it comes to california where he's heavily favored to win as well. i spoke to ed raulings a couple of minutes ago who just joined the donald trump super pac, the great america super pac. he says he was a doubter like so many others for a long time. now he's come around to donald trump and it's time for the rest of the republicans to come around to help fill in what he calls gaps in the campaign right now. he's talking about fund raising. he says the campaign has done a good job of getting to the nomination. going to the general election and facing up against somebody like hillary clinton who will be running a billion-dollar campaign against donald trump.
he will need outside fund raising as well. as you know, donald trump has disavowed super pacs in his name in the past, and he's made a name for himself as a self-funder even though he does solicit donations on his website. he's benefitted from that. his supporters say they like he's not beholden to special interests. i'm hearing from a number of sources that that will change. he will be taking fund raising money from the gop and ed rawlings believes he will not be disavowing fund raising from super pacs because he will need it going forward. i spoke to him about what sort of interactions he's had with the campaign. he said he hasn't had any interactions with them since he joined the super pac. early on he had a conversation with corey about how to handle a
billion dollars. he asked how he dealt with ross perot. he said it's like riding a bucking bull. enjoy it while it lasts. hold on as tight as you can. when you do get bucked, try not to get trampled. he said he has even despite all experience in campaigns for the last 40, 50 years, he doesn't believe that anybody can predict what's going to happen this time around. certainly not him. >> all right. awaiting clearance to enter trump tower in midtown manhattan. let's check in with the cruz campaign. they're at the crowne plaza downtown hotel in indianapolis. what, if anything, are they saying after this loss? >> this loss not surprising for the cruz campaign. we talked a bit ago about the idea they were bracing for a loss here. the question will be what the margin is. how bad of a loss is it?
the fact we're calling it at polls close indicate it may be a significant one for ted cruz. our most recent polling showed him trailing trump by 15%. you look at the exit poll, there was a sharp ideological divide. painting himself as the true conservative. cruz will be coming out onto this stage with his running mate, carly fiorina. i expect that cruz will talk about where he's been in this race. he will take hits against donald trump as he's been doing today in an intensely personal way. we've heard that from him but not like this. it was a very emotional day.
heidi cruz had tears in her eyes when there was this moment when cruz came upon a group of fifth graders. he started giving high five and shaking hands. she began crying. that's not something we often see from her. i asked her what brought on this response, she said kids sometimes the truth that adults cannot see. there's a frustration within the cruz campaign that trump is able to dominate the narrative and able to bring up tactics that the cruz campaign feels they couldn't do. it's a significant moment in the campai campaign. no word yet on timing of his remarks of when we might see him or his surrogates. >> we'll be ready to go to your location. >> it's an interesting sign of cruz campaign and their attitude toward indiana that even though they told hallie, they expected to lose, they still got their
candidate in indiana. it's not at all clear where else they might put him because they made so clear they were putting all their eggs in this basket. he will be forced to stand in indiana on hoosier soil having not just been beaten but having been beaten by a significant margin. we'll see when the numbers come in. it's going to be stark night. it will be interesting to see ted cruz in that setting. nicole, let me ask you as a republican, political pro, one of the things i've been thinking about is this mike pence endorsement. nobody knew for sure he was going to make an endorsement. he probably thought he could get away without making one, which would be nice for him because he's up against re-election. he's had trouble as governor even though the economy is strong. now that pence did endorse ted cruz and it looks like ted cruz got shallacked in indiana.
does that rebound? does that boomerang on mike pence in way that not just hurts cruz but hurts him too? >> the significance of the pence endorsement is there's no statewide office holder who is more a soul mate for ted cruz than mike pence. we talked last tuesday night and asked the folks that joined us what the impact would be if cruz didn't get the endorsement. getting it the way he got it was a complete wash. when pence endorsed -- >> it was late. mealy mouth and praise for donald trump. >> he took it back as he was giving it. >> i don't think pence suffers any damage because he made perfectly clear he admired and liked both of them. the only point that goes forward
with us, is trump camp see any value in engaging with establishment republicans? pence took meetings with all three. the trump meeting was very helpful in they believe it held pence back from a full embrace. >> helpful to the trump campaign. >> helpful to the trump campaign. when pence said he would vote it was the most halfhearted endorsement of the cycle. >> to your original question, i think you can argue or ask what the impact might be on pence in a general election of having allied himself with -- not of having allied himself with cruz. of having said so many nice things about trump. >> there's risk on both sides? >> yeah. >> this is why he didn't want to have to say anything. >> he might have created a
problem for himself. >> there's a senate primary tonight. tea party republicans threw their shot at a senate seat in 2012 when they picked this guy richard mourdock who went onto say things about legitimate rape. lost them a senate seat. tonight there's another race like that on the republican side in indiana where there's a more establishment candidate and more outsider candidate and who knows what a donald trump selecting electorate is looking for in a senate candidate. who knows what their preferences are about the rest of the republican party. there's been very little test of that thus far this year. we'll see that tonight. >> those just joining us, it's 7:14 now. 14 minutes ago we had the call. our projection that donald trump, at poll closing, would be the victor tonight in indiana. ted cruz second. john kasich returning third early on at 9%.
one of my favorite segments live from 50 feet away. that would feature rick tyler. former press secretary for newt gingrich but most recently national spokesman for the cruz campaign. he's a contributor to us and rick, that means on awful nights like this for the cruz campaign we get to ask a guy like you what went wrong? >> cruz had a back week and donald trump had a good week. he dominated the state. all indications is it's not going to be a good night for cruz and not a good campaign going forward. >> sitting next to you is one of our political correspondents, kasie hunt. the question to you as the new york times would word it, wither the stop trump movement. >> withered, i think. this is not a good night for
them, clearly. i just got off the phone with the top trump aide who already, the language that they are use g ing to discuss this race has changed. his campaign was acknowledging we have to beat cruz in indiana. they're language is we have just finished a 17-person contest. them saying this is effectively wrapped up. they're starting to accelerate talks about how to get donald trump out there to fund raise for state parties. donald trump also interested in taking over planning for the convention. they want to make sure that the program reflects donald trump. they want control over who speaks. what the tone of the event is and trump wants to throw a big
party. it's not really that far out of realm of your imagination to understand why trump might want to take that over. them saying now that it's clear donald trump will reach 1237 and we have avoided a contested convention. all of that still going to try to be coalescing behind the scenes over the next 24 hours. >> all of these things are in the handbook of things candidates say when they near the nomination. this phrase presumptive nominee, we may hear trump say it again tonight. that's a thing. he can say it about himself. our elections folks reminded us if you see that in a graphic or hear us use that wording officially some day, it will mean it's official. for now, it's a self-given title. let's take a quick break. when we come back, we'll go down to what chris matthews in washington with his special guests.
donald trump took a major step towards sewing up the republican nomination tuesday against the primary election. dashing the hopes of rival ted cruz and other gop forces who fear the brash businessman will doom their party in the general election. that the words of the associated press julie pace. >> we got statement from the never trump folks. they say obviously trump's victory in indiana makes the road ahead more challenging. we'll continue to seek opportunities to oppose his nomination. if nominated he will lose in historic fashion, threaten down ballot campaigns and usher in a clinton presidency.
this is indisputable when three out of four women view him negatively. never does not mean maybe. six out of ten republican primary voters voted for someone other than trump. we'll continue to identify ways to give them voice. it's the never trump folks saying tonight is not the end for them even if nobody knows how they salvage this. >> where the trump votes are coming? >> take a look at this. we'll show you indiana and what this means for donald trump overall. these are the results we see coming in. donald trump dark red. these are the counties he's winning dark red like the dark red sweater that bobby knight used to wear. you see two counties for ted cruz. donald trump headed toward a
57-delegate sweep. it's very, very likely to be his. his new number of delegates will be 1055. that's are he would sit after tonight. let's play this out. 1055 means he's 182 short. he would need 182 the rest of the way. west virginia votes, it's funny how they gave out their delegates. this looks like a monster trump win. let's give them 25 here. the magic number is 157. we got these two different dates. you have a total of 72 between them. say trump only gets 32. look at this. the magic number down to 74. new jersey the proportional. let's give him half. now you're down to 72. montana, south dakota, let's
still say they go to ted cruz. the magic number 62 now being conservativ conservative. there's 172 delegates up for grabs in california. donald trump wouldn't need much out of california. what we're seeing here since wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, we said wisconsin is a turning point in this race. it was. since then donald trump has not been below 50% in a single state. that suggests the momentum. that suggests the race has changed. momentum is so much on trump's side that being conservative it's hard not to see him getting 1237. he's going to leave 1237 way behind in the rear view mirror. >> if you're saying he only needs to pull 62 delegates out of california, am i right that right now in the polls he's sitting really comfortably with
big fat double digit leads in california? >> you're talking north of 20 points right now. that's before anybody digests the results from tonight. there's been a couple of polls out of california showing a land slide for trump. what you've been hearing from the stop trump folks is we're going to pick congressional districts and fight him there. if he's winning that state by 20 points or more, she's sweeping them all. that statement from the never trump campaign, they're saying we represent, they've been sticking to this line who says anybody who wasn't voting for trump will never be with trump. if it is still north of 50%, it will mean he's won seven states now, seven primaries or caucuses with more than 50% of the vote. that's low by normal standards. to put it in perspective at this same point, mitt romney, the nominee had done it in 11 states. >> thank you. steve schmidt is of counsel to
where bernie sanders is giving his pretty much, sounds like his normal stump speech on a night when the democratic race in indiana, we have it as too early to call. let's listen for a moment. >> 1% now owns as much wealth as the bottom 90%. the top 20 people in this country in wealth now own more wealth than the bottom 150 million americans, half of our population. we've got one family, the walton family of walmart. they are worth $149 billion. more wealth than the bottom 40%
of the american people. when you talk about a rigged economy, that is exactly what walmart and the walton family are all about. they pay their workers wages that are so low that the american taxpayer has to pay for the food stamps and the medicaid that -- [ cheers and applause ] the american taxpayer is paying for the food stamps and medicaid that many walmart employees need because they're wages are too low. now, it's a little bit nuts to my mind when the middle class of this country has to subsidize the employees of the wealthiest
family in this country. >> bernie sanders live in louisville. look at this race. we have it too early to call. 50% to 50% with 18% in. something tells me we'll be keeping an eye on this. >> let's bring in bernie sanders campai campaign manager, jeff weaver. we know this is a big night for you. >> happy to be here. thank you. >> how confident are you that you will win? >> when it's 50/50. it's a little tough. i won't be too over the top. the polls have closed. he's been in indiana. when he's in these states, these open primary states he can move
the numbers quite substantially and speaking to the large crowds he's been talking to. we're feeling very good about tonight. i think a lot of media were ready to write this off. i think the voters want this to go on. >> let me ask you about one other metric that was a surprise which is your fund raising numbers dropping a lot between march and april. we have been so wowed by your campaign fund-raising with all these millions of small donors giving again these small amounts of money. why did your fund-raising drop off so significantly between march and april? >> well, our average was 17 million a month. we exceeded that by 50%. we did have two phenomenal months. 45 million is not sustainable number. if people want to go to bernie sanders.com and contribute
tonight, that will be greatly appreciated. >> i'm used to people dodging the question. not using the question to remedy the problem i was asking about. let me ask you about the criticism your campaign has made toward the clinton campaign also on the issue of fund raising. you have called the clinton campaign money launders for their joint fund-raisers with the dnc. are you alleging that the clinton campaign is criminally liable for what is wrong with the fund raising tactics? >> that term was used by democratic state party officials. that wasn't our term. they've been getting huge donations from wealthy people and doing two things. they said they would give it to the state parties. the state parties have gotten 1% of the money. what they have done is quite remarkable. they take the money they get
from people from contributions above the limit that they are allowed to take and turn it into a small dollar contribution machine which all goes to the clinton campaign. they are turning it into small dollars that goes to the secretary. money that goes to the state parties gets vacuumed up by the dnc sometimes, according to the news report when state parties don't realize the money is being taken out of their account. it's quite phenomenal. >> what you have done in terms of supporting other democrats is you have raised money for three specifically democratic house named candidates. are there going to be more than just those three people? >> yes. it will be many more. the senator has raised through solicitations money for the dscc this cycle and he's raised money for the dccc.
he's raised money for individual senators. he has a long history of raising money for the democratic party and for democratic candidates. he'll continue to do so. i think you'll see in the coming days and weeks more direct solicitations to our donors asking them to support other progressive candidates who can help further the political revolution. >> jeff weaver. at this hour the race still too early to call. stay in touch. appreciate having you here. >> folk who is are really into politics will remember in '08, indiana was one of the really interesting states, late states coming in for the democratic side in that race. there are some fascinating counties with names like marion and madison. with a 50-50 too early to call race. steve, those of white house go
back a little bit remember numbers out of gary, indiana kept us up late. >> in may of 2008. that he understa that ended up being the decisive night when it became clear that barack obama would be the candidate. bernie sanders leading statewide by three votes. i've been hitting the refresh button. they keep swapping first and second place. thai been trading the lead. it's going back and forth. this is where south we understand -- bend is. you mentioned gary. it was such a late night, one of the places that came in very last that night that proved crimin critical to the outcome.
it was gary. no returns yet. gray means nothing is coming in from there. that could again, especially if it comes in late, that could be key. one thing to keep in mind as we watch this democratic race, the backdrop is a little different than 2008 where the outcome was in doubt there between clinton and obama. we come into tonight with hillary clinton leading in the pledge delegate count by about 290. if this is what holds, if we've got race that's a toss up, 50-50, the difference between sanders winning this thing by a point and clinton winning this thing by a point, it's the difference between ending the night with clinton up 292 delegates or 288 delegates. the bottom line math, it seems dramatic. does sanders win? does clinton win in the bottom line math isn't going to change no matter who wins. >> we have a tight race separated by all of three votes. kristen welker outside clinton campaign headquarters in
brooklyn. i note your candidate will be spending the night about 40 minutes to the north of city at home. >> incredibly notable. that's right. she's not in indiana tonight. she's not in any of the primary states. i spoke with one of her campaign official who is said they are bracing for a potential loss tonight. indiana is an open primary. that means that independents can vote. now, this comes as we are seeing secretary clinton make a total pivot to the general election earlier today in an exclusive interview with andrea mitchell, she all but laid out her strategy for taking on donald trump. she's going to paint him as someone who has failed the commander in chief test. if they lose indiana, the clinton campaign argues they have enough delegates to clench the nomination. here is the key. i've been talking to top
democrats. they are concerned she's not competing aggressively enough in these primary states. they want her to win a state like california heading into the convention. they say that's going to be critical to unifying the party because senator sanders is saying he is going to fight this all the way to the convention. >> outside clinton campaign headquarters in brooklyn, new york. we have a trump victory. we're waiting to hear from him. we have a break to get to but live coverage on the other side.
counted will be donald trump with ted cruz losing badly and john kasich even worse. it brings us to our conversation in washington with chris matthews. chris. >> thanks, brian. i think the national lead tomorrow will be trump's got it, right? >> it's over, 100%. donald trump will be the republican nominee. as steve pointed out earlier with this victory looking ahead to the state of california. some polls out in california have donald trump with a 34-point lead. very substantial lead in the state of new jersey. just those two states alone get him over the magic thresholds of 1237. he will be the first ballot nominee of the republican party by the delegates. >> will we begin to see people coalesces one way or the other on trump now. they have to decide if they're with the nominee or not. >> this was the discussion earlier onset new york. you have ted cruz saying he's a pathological liar, he's a narcissist, he's unfit but yes i'll support the republican nominee for president.
we see that all over the party. they're not taking the logical next step when you look at the ne personality characteristics. how many will say i love my party, but i love my country more. we'll see how many republicans out there that say it's better for hillary clinton to be elected president of the united states to be the commander in chief than somebody in their view is not stable, is not fit to be the commander in chief and have access to the nuclear weapons codes. >> how do you see that breaking? what percentage of your party will say better to give this one up and take hillary on in 2020 than have donald trump as president? >> i think you'll see pretty few and far between at an elected official level. at a republican consulting class, the former staffers in the white houses and been around capitol hill, been in the lob lobbying community, i think you'll see a great deal of it.
>> so far he's gotten dr. ben carson behind him. anybody else in the candidates ranks, of the 17 candidates, anybody else going to join? >> he won't go above 1237 until the night of june 7th. he will officially be the presumptive nominee. any other candidate who did what donald trump did tonight, what would happen tomorrow is paul ryan, mitt romney, is the previous nominee would come out and they would say it's now clear that the republican voters have spoken and that they have decided that donald trump should carry the grand old party standard into the general election against the likely democratic nominee, hillary clinton. we'll see if those normal protocols and custom occur before june 7th. if this was john mccain, if this was mitt romney, if this bob
doyle, if this was any one of another dozen republican, that would happen. >> donald trump calls and asks are you with me, what will all these governors and senators going to say to him? thinking about it. >> i think you'll have a will the of people looking at this saying how does this impact my race. what does this mean in my state? state of utah, is a state donald trump is in big trouble. >> because of his lifestyle. >> i think that elected politicians are going to have a very transactional approach to this. they will say what does this do to me. this could have dire implications for the u.s. senate. then again, this race, a will the of democrats, i think, are gleeful tonight saying that donald trump because of his unfavorable levels with women voters doesn't stand a chance against hillary clinton. certainly, people at the highest levels of the hillary clinton d campaign, democrats at the highest level do not think that.
they regard him as a very dangerous opponent. >> put those numbers together. why do we know the variety groups that are talked about, h hispanic voters, you have a lot of women and most voters are women. all the numbers, quantities out there that say trump can't win. when you said is all in the air and in the national polling. it's getting within the margin of error. how can all the the groups be against him but he's still in t it? >> trust is completely evaporated between the american people and every institution in this country that you can think to name. business, you've seen an error of fraud in sports, financial services industry, government, politics. in that environment, an outsider candidate running against hillary clinton who has been on the stage for a generation. there are two types of elections
change versus more of the same. >> i agree. he's changed. >> we look at this election and we say sitting here today that the election is going to be determined by events that have already occurred opposed to events that have yet to occur. what's the implication if we see scenes over this country like we saw outside the state republican convention in california. violence being done to police cars. hundreds of people carrying mexican flags. protests on the edge of violence. when we look at the vents yet to come, when we consider the toxic tone of this campaign, we think about the campaign with the images of violence that are a prelude of much worse to come. something we haven't seen in this country in a very, very long time. we put that all together, we're moving into a general election here that is highly volatile and very unpredictable. >> it sounds like 1968 with an
unhappy result but a fear of change at that point. change begins not so great. back to you guys. daunting in a lot of ways. talking about us to be discussing reasonably how the ongoing violence associated with the political campaign might affect the election -- that is just something i didn't expect in my lifetime to be saying. >> we have dibs on the next conversation with steve. easily the most interesting conversation of the evening thus far. a quick characterization before we go to a break. we have moved our characterization of indiana for the democrats from too early to call to too close to call. you see the separation there between the two candidates. another break, our live coverage continues. man 1: you're new.
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another barn burner here on the democratic side. too close to call is our characterization in a race separated by just over 4,000 votes. and while we have so much to talk about on the republican side, having just heard from the kasich campaign, having just heard from steve schmidt, the quote i believe was "it's over" for every other candidate not named trump. we are duty-found to go to steve
kornacki as we are getting results in from indiana. what do you think is going to tip this either way? what's the big one you're waiting for results from? >> i'll give you a couple, one for each campaign right now. if you're a bernie sanders supporter what do you think of, you look at college towns. you've got two here they're looking at, partial returns, indiana university. bloomington. you can see about one-third of the vote in right now. sanders is crushing clinton in this county, he could squeeze a lot out of this still. also, nothing in yet in indiana here, tip pa canoe county, the home of purdue university, boilermakers that could be a big county for bernie sanders. on the flip side, the good news for hillary clinton, we talked about this earlier, you look up aer, lake county, this is where gary is, it looks like the early vote coming in, hillary clinton having a decisive lead there. there's a lot of votes still to come in here right now. the actual same-day vote, if that favors hillary clinton, she could get a lot out of there. of course in the heart of the state as well as indianapolis we
should tell you about one-quarter of the vote is in from indianapolis right now. it is dead even right there. >> steve do we know if the turnout overall looks big on the democratic side? >> i can't compare to '08. >> it's hard to know until everything's in, i know. >> if we dwell on indianapolis it is because just under half of all the voters who will vote today are in the adi, the area of dominant influence, around indianapolis. >> look at you with the obscure acronym. i don't even know what to say. adi. >> we'll continue our coverage at the top of the hour. >> googling.
8:00 p.m. eastern time, polls have been closed across all of independent for an hour. some places two hours. this was our first projection at 7:00 eastern time. donald trump the winner of the republican primary in indiana. here's the three-way finish. trump, then cruz, then kasich by a long shot. a big defeat here by ted cruz, the campaign late in the game telling reporters they didn't expect to win. and here's the race we're watc