tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC May 17, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm PDT
it's over. it's not even close. >> i think you're right. barack obama got 38% there. it looks like we're killing time. >> it's going to make -- >> here it is. it's now 7:00 in the east. polls are closed across the commonwealth of kentucky. the race between hillary clinton and bernie sanders is, too early to call. we don't have enough information to make call just yet. joy, i think that tells us that you don't know if it's close or not but it's early. >> it's certainly early. i was going to give you a little, tell you something i don't know. you might know this already. the interesting thing about kentucky, the governor now, his pollster now working for trump. kentucky is an interesting state. it has very high levels of poverty. that and west virginia are the poorest states. high levels of unemployment and despair. it's the kind of state that
bernie sanders has done well in. he can make that argument the white working class voters. >> it may be what hillary clinton said about coal even though bernie sanders may be more anti-coal than clinton or they have the same policy. >> her entire campaign has flipped from '08. >> here's the results. we're watching them come in. it's a close race so far.
some really interesting things we're seeing. you're talking about hillary clinton's comments on coal. what have they done? check this out. this is harlin county. this is the coal county in eastern kentucky. 2008, hillary clinton runs against barack obama in the democrat primary. she won by 76 points over barack obama. check this out. right now, look at the results. bernie sanders by 38. talk about a reversal. it was a 76-point hillary clinton win. tonight bernie sanders is beating her by nearly 40 points. the areas that were strongest for clinton. that's the rural, coal part here. we can show you it's right here. this is fayette county. this is home of the university of kentucky. you think bernie sanders. it's early. we only have about 10%. a little less than 10% of the
vote in. hillary clinton out to the lead now. if hillary clinton can win here and win big in jefferson, this is lousevilisville. hillary clinton up here early as well. win big here. win big here. look at that, her base from '08, gone in this state. >> wow. thanks so much. can you tell who is winning yet? >> the fact that fayette county, if that hold, if hillary clinton is winning there, that's really good news for her. jefferson county, if she's getting do i understaget ing those numbers. this is early, of course but if she's getting those numbers, that's good news. >> kristen welker is at brooklyn, new york. are they going to open up tonight if she wins? are we going to see the candidate if she wins? >> reporter: i was told moments ago, we are not going to see secretary clinton tonight. this is not unusual when she's
not feeling great about her chances on these primary nights. we typically don't see her. she is taking a day to have meetings and to get ready for the next phase of this race. the next primaries to come. look, her campaign has been down playing their expectations in kentucky throughout the day. one official describing it as a coin toss and highlighting the fact that her delegate lead is huge. they make the point, regardless of what happens in kentucky, they think she's going to be within about 100 delegates or less of clenching the nomination. we'll have to see if that actually comes to pass. of course, kentucky would be significant. senator sanders has had two big wins, indiana and west virginia. we've been talking about this over the past several days. the fact this primary battle continues to complicate her ability to really focus on donald trump which is something
she's increasingly been doing and that pro-clinton super pac releasing $6.5 million in ads that have been taking on donald trump hitting him for his controversial comments about women. that's really echoed the strategy that we're seeing secretary clinton take on the trail. >> thank you so much. kris is in carson covering the sanders campaign. >> reporter: there's a big crowd gathering here. this is time for the close of polls in oregon where bernie sanders is hoping he will have a win. what i'm hearing from the campaign really jibes with what you're saying. they thst it's a toss up of too close to call. they're going to look at whether the money she has pumped into ads make a difference.
all the visits she's made. five of them just over the last couple of days. there's this perception they indicated she was looking down on them as a stats. we're going to have to see how those results ultimately come in with steve on the big board. in the meantime, they would love to move away from this whole conversation about what happened in nevada and talk about a victory. having said that, the statement that bernie sanders campaign put out that he approved and that a campaign official told me he had a very heavy hand in was definitely defiant. defiant against the chargers that have been made that somehow his folks incited violence that happened here. i think what we're going to watch very closely tonight is
whether or not he comes before the media and has anything to say about this beyond the statement. i just talked to somebody high up in his campaign because bernie sanders is in the air. he will land in an hour, hour and a half from now. he said he didn't know what the senator was going to do if he was going to have more to say about this tonight beyond what you would expect him to say at this rally. >> i think his challenge is dealing with the videotape. once that videotape is seen, you have to challenge what people say and judge from what they're looking at. he'll have to deal with that. thank you. let's bring in msnbc news political director, chuck todd. what do you make of the fact this is too early to call in kentucky? >> i mean, the clinton campaign, they saw this as their last opportunity and made a win. they put the money in. it's a close primary. they saw a potential opening. i think they are tired of the negative pr.
this about what i expected that this would be like this. i think we're going to watch the numbers come in. i wouldn't be surprised if it stays this tight the whole time. we're seeing why it is that way. the reverse roles of what happened eight years ago. if you didn't know what happened eight years ago that was a proxy of obama, you didn't know if there was a race aspect and you see these numbers and you see hillary clinton was the beneficiary when her opponent was barack obama and now she is getting penalized when her opponent is bernie sanders. i don't think it's -- i don't think this is just happenstance. >> thank you. we'll be back with you.
james, back in 1992 when you were running or helping to run that campaign for president clinton, you could see, i went around door to door in jersey, one of those swing districts and try to figure out what people were thinking, the sense of the country wanted a change. they were tired of the bush one. they forgotten the war. it was behind them. what do you think the mood is now in this country and how does trump exploit it and how does hillary clinton exploit it? >> i think the interest ought to change in the air in the country,000. i don't know if you can out change donald trump. the question is what kind of change.
i can see that readily. >> if you just take all emotion, i think hillary wins that wants safety. they don't want crazy, hail mary policy. they want something that is solid. i think that's her strength in this race. the minorities in women too. how does she run as the safe candidate without being the boring candidate? >> i don't think she has to be. i think she has quite a record. she was pioneering and saw the woman that will come up from the children's defense fund that will help the legal career and be the first lady to being a senator. she's got to drive that narrative home. hillary clinton's life has been about change. there's no reason why she should stop being about change. it takes determination and planning. one thing to talk changes. another thing to bring it about. i'm hopeful and optimistic they will. >> let's talk about running mates. it's really coming on. my question is you guys hit a
bulls eye with al gore. what gives hillary clinton that kind of lift ? >> the republicans have to show their whole card. >> that's not until a week before the democrats meet this philly. >> i understand. she doesn't have to decide until late. it's going to be a very methodical thing. the decision to be made here is the democratic coalition that you unify the coalition and you win the general election or because it's trump, do you try to pick off some voters in the middle. that's a political calculation that's got to be made. i would be surprised if this wasn't a methodical thought out process that she goes through. that's who she is. i don't think that will change. >> it will take away from the
enemy. the democrats they know they need to break their heart early. say i'm going to get michigan. if you wanted to break the back, seems you would grab hold of pennsylvania. he's not doing anything new. >> it was a great day by the same token, you couldn't win the philadelphia suburbs. now you can. i don't know if there's much evidence that a candidate brings you a state. i don't think paul ryan got romney a single vote. >> i think you're right. >> obama, if anything, did a little better in wisconsin than you would expect given the overall number.
she had a few more votes than obama did. that didn't matter. she was gracious about it. al gore had a heck of a case. he got more by half a million and easily got more votes this florida. >> that's questionable call by the supreme court. they would have laid down and accepted it. >> let me ask you about it. looks like hillary clinton will have a lot of moderate
republican women. the husband and wife vote differently. a lot of republican women from the burbs won't like to vote for trump. the parties are not even. if you expand it and get more people to vote, there's real value in those votes. that's a calculation, by the same token you're right. there's some people that are not many swing voters left but there's still some. there's still some republicans that could be available to her. that's a calculation that's going to have to be made over the summer. i don't think it's smart to watch it right now and evaluate
in mid-july. >> the party's are not evenly split. there's more democrats in the country than republicans. it was 15% back when reagan won. it's just a different map. when people always tell me in louisiana, theray say this is n the same country we grew up in. i say of course not. the country is becoming less whiets. it's becomie i -- less white.
less married. that's the trends happening in america now. there's no denying this. politicians have to deal with it. >> thank you so much. we have a new characterization. it's now too close to call. we're going to learn a lot about that from chuck todd. what does that mean now? >> the way we look at the modelling, they expect this when you extrapolate out with all the different. we have three or four different models we work with that we don't believe anybody, any model has either candidate up by more than 3 points if you play this out. when you're that small of a margin, that's when we slap on the old too close to call it. we'll wait until we see more vote come in. >> how long do you think that will be tonight?
polls in kentucky have been closed for 20 minutes now. the race is too close to call. let's bring in the steve with the big board. >> we're showing you earlier, we had some indications from down here eastern kentucky what you think of as coal country. there were giant swings from hillary clinton. she had won in 2008 against barack obama. a lot of that, you can see the darker blue is bernie sanders. an interesting one we can show you right here, this is down in -- that's the wrong one. i pressed the wrong part up there. very small number of votes here.
you can see you're getting closer to the cincinnati suburbs. it's all in. hillary clinton wins it by eight points. she won the same county over barack obama by 34 points. margin shrinks. i can show you right here. we're waiting most, the vast th majority of the vote not in. if she gets a big number, that will make a big difference. we showed you this earlier. right here, this is fayette county. this is lexington. this is the university of kentucky. a lot more vote to come in. hillary clinton out to a lead early. if that holds where the university of kentucky is and sgh
she gets a big number, if that were to hold and be consistent, you look for her to be chipping away at the lead. >> is there any way to measure the gun issue down there? bernie is not a red hot gun control guy, let's be fair. hillary is tough on gun safety. this is not going to help her in that state? >> you think about, 2008, she was helped by the gun issue. he paid a big price for it. we're showing you these counties, eastern kentucky. that reversal we showed you in harlin county that's down here in coal country, she won it by 76 points eight years ago. she's losing by nearly 40 points. in the sense that the gun issue is factor here, it worked all for her eight years ago and worked all against her eight years later. >> people are rational.
thank you very much. it seems like all that drives the democrats out of states like west virginia and kentucky. >> in the last couple of elections -- >> having an african-american president. >> it puts a state like kentucky off limits for the democrats. they're just not going to win it. >> we heard it earlier, if you want to have the best guide, people like obama care, ask them what their party is. ask how they feel about the economy.
ask what their party is. >> the interesting thing that we were talking about is i'm fascinating in the lyndon johnson era, he would connect poverty. >> there was no abortion issue, no same-sex issues. you could just talk about jobs and new deal. >> now you have a republican governor and two republican snae senators. >> who will take away their connect. >> it's good to have you on. give me a sense of where this bernie thing is. i'm not sure i call this violence but rough house behavior. showing clearly the emotions that work for a side that looks like it's losing and doesn't
like it one bit and feels like it's being cheated. >> here is where the trajectory where sanders wins kentucky. they would like it to be about reconciliation and bringing the party together and giving bernie sanders a bit. leaving, arriving philadelphia where the message is unity. waiting to get stuff, not looking for unity. that's not good news for hillary clinton. >> what is at stake, what is negotiable in an environment like this looking at the enthusiasm. anger about the way things are being run. what do you negotiate. the rules of the party. we have closed d primaries or n.
is that going to satisfy the bernie people? >> we talked about the republican establishment missing what happened with donald trump and donald trump becoming the republican nominee. i think the democratic establishment, some people close to secretary clinton have missed why bernie sanders and his people, his supporters feel the way they do. this is not for them just two democrats having it out. let's see who wins and the losers supports. they want fundamental change. not just the democratic party and in country. emotional, passionally, they don't feel hillary clinton will get elected president and change things the way they want to. that's why they want to try to change it. some of the positions she's moved to the left on in philadelphia. >> seems like it's really directed at her. when you say we want her transcripts of what she said at her speeches, when there's hundreds of people in the room that can tell what she said, it's not like these are secret meetings. it seems like they are trying to pin her. they're not trying to negotiate with her. trying to pin her in way that
hurts her. >> when they talk about her position on issues, it's the same passion. they want to hurt her. i've been struck from the beginning of this campaign talking to sanders supporters, particularly younger one, the degree of venom, they have towards her. they have no use for her. many of them will reluctantly vote for her. this is not i'm so torn, should i vote for bernie or hillary. they're in this for bernie sanders. before tonight i thought secretary clinton would end up in philadelphia with a unified party. bernie and jane sanders standing side by side with clinton. after tonight if she losing kentucky, it's going to be harder task. . >> if you look at teddy kennedy
never getting behind. >> it's been the kiss of death. we know the republican party will be divided. we know there are prominent members of the republican party wo will never be for the republican nominee, donald trump. if the democrat party is united, after tonight it's more likely. then the democrats can say we're not the only united party and probably not the more divided party. i think the republican party is going to be more divided than the democrats. if hillary clinton loses kentucky, if they don't figure out how to settle down the controversy, i think they're going to have a lot more work to do to unify for philadelphia than a few days ago. >> may not be the city of brotherly love. thank you. mark halperin, thank you. >> donald trump and the women's vote. a pro-clinton super pac is on the attack. wait until you see this ad. kentucky right now is too close to call between bernie sanders
clinton's campaign released two ads today as it ravrps up the general election fight against donald trump. here is one of them. it's
called speak. >> you know you can see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her where ever. does she have a good body? no. does she have a fat [ expletive ] absolutely. >> if she weren't my daughter, perhaps i would be dating her. a person who is flat chested is hard to be a ten. you can tell them to go [ bleep ] themselves. >> does donald trump really speak for you? >> serge after that ad, it appears donald trump said the pathetic new hit ad against me r misrepresents the final line. you can tell them to go blank themselves was about china, not women. he did make this statement in rally talking to new hampshire residents about bringing back jobs lost to new mexico. later in that speech he did
refer to china. is this him picking a point. >> he seizes on moments he's not being treated accurately or fairly. in this case, that last line was in some ways misrepresenting what he said since the whole theme of that commercial seemed to be about women. what is very interesting is that of all the things in that commercial, all the things he said, what she chose to do was take issue with that last line saying that it was misrepresented what he initially said and by doing that, he called more, a lot more attention to a very negative ad that is made by a pro-clinton
super pac. >> thank you. we're going to dig into that. joy reid is here with me. with us from washington is the national press secretary of ben carson dina bass. i want to hear your thoughts. trump's defense against a lot of bad stuff is not defensible is to say wait a minute. you put the mistake and i'm going to play for all it's worth. it was a nice punch line but it wasn't related. it's unfair to throw in attacks that i didn't have anything to do with in terms of women. >> i think he does make a valid point. that was not a comment he made about women. that was about china. is that something she should be saying about china. as it relates to women, we understand that at this point in
the campaign cycle the very reason that hillary clinton or a pro-clinton super pac is trying to run this type of ad at this stage in the campaign is because hillary clinton has a woman problem. doesn't matter which group you poll whether it's young women, old women, women who made more than 60,000, women who made less. she's not viewed favorably among women. at this stage, even though she has a fight against her, even show she is still running a primary race, she's doing her best to do what she can to win women over. this is the way she's going to try to do it. >> i think the super pac is important for a variety of reasons. they do not believe there is an issue with regard to women's
rights. the donald trump didn't deny referring to women as fat pigs. >> he chose his target. there's a long list he's said. that last line was a gross line. >> they think there's no reasons -- >> you would give him an automatic thing to grab onto and say this isn't accurate. >> there's something else he will grab onto. then donald trump will want to relitigate the 1990s with the clintons as well. so far he's been able to say, i only talk about monica lewinski and the president's dna, i only
talk about that when you've attacked me first. >> the president's dna, when did that come in? >> i heard that last week. >> and you're wearing a blue dress tonight. >> and there are men here. just kidding. >> the other thing about millenial women is they are not meeting hillary clinton's clarion call to vote for the first woman. >> you think that will happen? >> i have three daughters. we can wait. they don't hear it's a hypothetical. it's hillary. it's not a female. it's that female. i think there will be saturation point. >> just an interesting point where they come out with this highly qualified group of people. it's about mexican trade. wasn't about china.
why would they throw the ugly line in at the end? >> i don't know if we're taking his word for it. >> we have looked it up. >> is he stipulating that the fat big stuff is accurate. i did say the fat pigs part. sure i called some people fat pigs but the other line was about china. for a lot of young women this is new information. the guy on the apprentice wasn't calling them fat pigs. he did say something about women being on their knees. you have to remember there's race gap here. it's white women who are in play. not women of color. barack obama got 96% of black women, 70% of latino woman. >> against mitt romney. >> here's the thing, mitt romney, john mccain and george
w. bush had a huge gender gap with white women in their favor. it was an 11-point gap for mccain. 7 points in favor of the republicans in 2008. >> hillary has a huge problem with men. donald trump is not going to do as well with women as mitt romney did. it was a 14-point gender gap in his favor with white women and he still lost. >> can i piggyback onto what you just said. an important point is donald trump has said hillary clinton has a women problem and we keep hearing this over and over again. i don't think it matters. donald trump knows he's not trying to get the women's vote. he knows he's not going to get it. i believe he's going after all the aggrieved men who feel that the world has left them behind. >> and don't find hillary to be likable or trustworthy. >> what did he do today?
he hired a pollster. he's going to kind his peeps. >> he's found them. >> i think we're talking about kentucky, west virginia. we're talking about pennsylvania. >> he's found his base. the people who turn to the america when joy and i would be housekeepers if we were lucky. >> that's not fair. >> that's the nostalgia voters are in favor for. >> everything is on the table. history stands with us. we're going to correct history. great to have you onto balance things out. we're pretty busy up here. we're continuing to watch the results coming in from kentucky. more than 40% of the voters. the race is still too close to call between senator sanders and secretary clinton. when we come back, the latest on the kentucky race. msnbc live coverage of the kentucky and oregon primaries continue after this.
welcome back to our coverage of the kentucky and oregon primaries tonight. the race against kentucky between bernie sanders and hillary clinton is very close. it's up to 700 vote difference. it's so close. steve will tell us. it's so close right now. steve. >> it really is. we're looking at these returns for clues about how it's going. i can tell you something really interesting. let's show you, it's interesting on two fronts. we have been talking about one of the themes. hill clinton won this primary eight years ago in a landslide over barack obama. this is pike county. this is a big coal county in eastern kentucky. eight years ago, hillary clinton won this county. 91-7% over barack obama. it was an 84-point victory. check out what we're seeing tonight in pike county. they're still counting the votes. bernie sanders is leading.
remember that uncommitted is an option in democratic primaries. what this strongly suggests, you're seeing an unusually high, uncommitted number here and other parts of kentucky. it's nowhere near that high in that race. these are conservatives. they like donald trump. they were born that way. they remain registered democrats. for a variety of reasons they show up and still vote in democratic premares. it's not just the presidential race playing out in kentucky today. there's congressional primaries.
it looks like in eastern kentucky, turning out to vote for other races, they get the democratic ballot and they don't like either candidate and they check off uncommitted. these are the voters we saw. we saw some of this in west virginia as well. you have to think if these are trump voters and gearing up for a trump versus hillary clinton general election, if they didn't have uncommitted as an option on this ballot, you got to think they would be checking out bernie sanders name only because it would give them an opportunity to vote against hillary clinton. keep this mind those votes you see for uncommitted. if we're talking about a real close margin at the end of the night, that could be key. that's with the university of kentuc kentucky. if hillary clinton does well, she could be in good shape. an interesting story in the
rural, conservative part of the state. >> i was thinking to the logic. if you have more of an interest in the mayor's race or the county chairman or you want to know who will be your state rep or senator, if that's keenly important, you'll stay register inside the party where you'll have an influence even if you have to give up influence in the other party picking the republican nominee. you'd rather be able to pick the local democrat. they do well. >> it's bread and butter. it matters to you. after the realignment in the 60s. gr donald trump said do you think crooked hillary will close the deal. if she can't win kentucky, she should drop out of race. system rigged. i don't know how it's true.
he's a kentucky native and capital news service james carol at the louisville carrier journal. we're watching here which is a really razor tight race. he's not winning it by the same margin hillary did eight years ago. it's not a total blow out. he's getting 60% of the vote but not 70%. he's not doing as well as he would like to do in that part. uncommitted is pretty high. hillary is doing little better than obama did in the coal country as well in '08. in jefferson county there's a big population base. that's why it's so close. she is winning the big city and bernie sanders is not doing well
as i thought he would do in the rural areas. >> we have a 602-vote difference with bernie sanders with 50% of the vote. your take of what we're watching in kentucky. >> i think unlike west virginia, this is a closed democratic primary. only democrats can vote. because kentucky is consultly and politically conservative and less conservative than bernie sanders, you would think that the democratic elect rate. only greats could vote would be ideally suited for hillary clinton. the fact that she is having a rough time winning a state like this has to be concerning to them. first, obviously because of the optics which we've been talking about all night. she needs a win, she put a lot of money into this race in kentucky. she spent money on tv ads, vesh visited the state a lot. brought bill clinton in. all of that is making this a tough fight for her in a state that would be more suited among rank and filed democrats and the fact that she is not doing it as
steve pointed out, you have uncommitted slate getting strong votes in certain parts of kentucky tells you how unhappy some of the democrats in these states that are unlikely to be in play at this point in the fall, how unhappy the democrats are with the choices they're facing. >> i'll start with perry, what is the gun issue down here. it seems to me there are conservative democrats down in kentucky that care about their guns and coal for the livelihood. there are a lot of personal reasons why somebody might go for bernie who is not tough on gun control, not like hillary. >> i think what we're seeing is probably less issue based, coal is an important issue and that is significant but what you're seeing is voting uncommitted or voting for sanders is an anti-democratic, anti-national democrats, anti-establishment vote. you're seeing counties where i think you'll see a fair amount of democrats vote for donald trump in the general election. i think it is much more about
being, like, remember in 2012, in the kentucky primary, uncommitted 42%, barack obama, 58%. obama lost a lot of counties to uncommitted in 2012. i think you're seeing a similar dynamic there where voting obama, voting against obama and voting against clinton is voting against the democratic party that you don't align yourself within eastern kentucky. >> what about it? >> the gun issue, there is no question, kentucky is a place where you do not want to be running for on the position of any kind of restrictions on guns. you may remember when allison lunderson grimes had a picture of herself firing a shotgun. she is a democrat, to show her bona fides as a statewide candidate for office and it got a lot of play across the country. but it is i think a lot more than guns. i think it is very much obama has never ever ever been popular in kentucky.
he just has not and the coal issue, top democrats i've talked to can see, the coal issue is hurting hillary clinton there not just because she said that she is going to help put coal companies out of business. the coal industry has had a lot of outside pressures that had nothing to do with necessarily certainly obama's policies are a factor, but a lot of other things, cheaper energy sources, competition, natural gas, a lot of other things in the market have hurt the coal industry. the fact of the matter, hillary clinton, you heard of carbon capture. she is not capturing the carbon vote in the united states. it is a problem in pennsylvania as you pointed out before and west virginia, kentucky, the coal producing places, people talk about wyoming may be put in place. it is a big coal state as well. places where coal is in play and part of the economies, hillary clinton will have a hard time making her play. >> thank you james carol and