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tv   All In With Chris Hayes  MSNBC  August 10, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm PDT

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that someone in trump's position should not be even hinting at such a prospect. can we at least agree on that? that's "hardball." "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. >> tonight on "all in" -- >> with a crowd like that, if that's what they thought he meant, they'd have gone wild. >> the trump spin continues and so do republican defections. >> nothing you can do, folks. although the second amendment people, maybe there is. >> tonight the trump campaign denying a report it has been contacted by secret service as a fall-out to the second amendment remarks continues. and why those remarks, jokes or not, are so dangerous. plus, a new look at the increasingly grim electoral map for trump as the clinton campaign picks up more republican endorsements, and sets its sites on another deep red state. and back to baltimore. >> the findings are challenging to hear. >> the jaw-dropping doj findings
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on the baltimore police department when "all in" starts right now. >> good evening from new york, i'm chris hayes. today a brief respite for donald trump of all the coverage about second amendment people acting to stop hillary clinton. instead, for a few hours, all eye on trump tower where a climber was in the process of scaling the glass face of the building, using suction cups and other equipment. police opened up a window lying in the climber's path and were eventually able to pull him inside to safety. there he goes. he's strapped in, folks. made it to at least the 16th floor, we believe. that interlude is unlikely to take the heat off trump for his opaque and incendiary comments yesterday. >> hillary wants to abolish -- essentially abolish the second
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amendment. by the way, if she gets to pick -- if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. although the second amendment people, maybe there is, i don't know. but -- but i'll tell you what, that will be a horrible day. >> true to form, trump and his campaign had refused to apologize or even acknowledge the issue, insisting against the logic of the words themselves that those comments were merely a call to political action. >> what we're talking about is political power. there's tremendous political power to save the second amendment. tremendous. and you look at, you know, you look at the power they have in terms of votes and that's what i was referring to. obviously that's what i was referring to. >> what trump said was apparently troubling enough to make the secret service sit up and take notice. they said they were aware of what trump had said. today, according to one report, they spoke to the campaign more than once on the topic.
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trump later tweeted that no such meeting or conversation ever happened, calling it a made-up story. this on the same day that hillary clinton rushed to protect hillary clinton on the stage at a rally in iowa. after a protester hopped a barricade. >> now, donald trump's intentions have been at the enter of a fire storm over his comments. in an interview this morning, rudy guiliani argued the crowd's reaction proved that what trump said about clinton is benign. >> what he intended is very, very simple. what he intended was, they should vote against her. >> i guess that's the question. >> with a crowd like that, if that's what they thought he meant, they'd have gone wild. >> they would have gone wild? perhaps he missed the man in the red shirt, reacting with a genuinely shocked expression. in an interview today, that same man described what was going through his mind in the room at that moment. >> i was thinking exactly what i said to my neighbor, connie, and that was, i can't believe he
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said it. the media will have a field day with this one. down here in the south, we don't curse in front of women. we don't drink liquor in front of the preacher, and we don't make jokes like that in public. but it was clear to my mind, and the people around me, that he was trying to make a joke. >> a joke. not an appeal for gun advocates to get politically motivated, but a joke about taking up arms against representatives of the u.s. government. that seems to be more or less how paul ryan interpreted trump's comments, despite, he says, not having seen the tape. >> i've been busy today. i heard about this second amendment quote. it sounds like just a joke gone bad. i hope it clears it up quickly. you should never joke about something like that. every day more republicans are breaking with their party's nominee. florida sitting congressman ileana ross leighton said she plans to write in jeb bush, whom
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she supported in the primary. it all seems to be taking a toll on donald trump, if his appearance in virginia is any indication. though he hit many of his talking points, his speech seemed much more subdued, even low energy, if you will. >> what is going on, folks, with our leaders? and with our leader in particular. he is grossly incompetent. he said it matters less what he meant and more what people heard. thomas freedman compares his comments to the volatile rhetoric in israel, leading up to the assassination ofities ak rabin in 1995. quote, there are always people down the line who don't hear the caveats, only the message. you know what we do with people like that, don't you? we kill them. freedman closes with some
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dramatic language. people are playing with fire here, and there's no bigger flame thrower than donald trump. forget politics, he is a disgusting human being. his children should be ashamed of him. joining me now, trump campaign surrogate, steve cortez. steve, what's your -- i have to say, i have an idea for you guys about an explanation of this quote, and it's killing me you guys aren't using it. so first, let me ask you what your spin on this quote is. >> well, listen, my spin on this quote is, this is much ado about nothing. the media has tried time and again to take anything that donald trump says, that is at all pronounced in an inelegant manner and attach the most malicious and nefarious intent possible to that quote. what he said was, and it was clear to me, and most americans, second amendment people and i'm one of them, a member of the nra, that second amendment people will use their power, not their fire power, their
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political power -- >> to do what? >> to try to make sure hillary clinton isn't president, or if she is, she doesn't use the power to destroy the second amendment. >> the second one, that's the thing. he was talking -- hillary wants to abolish the second amendment. by the way, if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks, period. at that point in the train of thought, hillary's been elected and she's appointed a judge. he goes on to say, although the second amendment people, maybe there is, i don't know. so it can't be about voting. can we establish that, in the logic -- >> i understand your point. as a trump surrogate i have to come on the air and defend quite often things that are said by may candidate. even though i love him and support him, he's an outsider, he still speaks inelegantly at times or imprecisely. but in this case, i'm going to defend him to the wall, because what it means is, even if she's
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president, we, meaning republicans, may very well control the senate. she doesn't just appoint supreme court justices, they have to be approved by the senate. >> yes, yes! >> and nra and people like me, volume fight -- >> they said it was about voting, even though it's not what it was about. >> let me recommend that to my bosses at trump tower, please. >> have you ever had someone with a bad roommate and then nine bad roommates and at the end of it, you think maybe you're the bad roommate. if you're a person who is constant misinterpreted and misunderstood, maybe there's something wrong with how you're communicating. is that a plausible theory of the case? >> i hear your point, but i'm going to reject it on this basis. i think right now, what we see in the mainstream media, the elites that occupy newsrooms of new york and washington, d.c. don't understand at all what is going on -- >> they don't understand the
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real talk of a billionaire real estate mogul is what you're saying. >> they don't understand the fly of the country -- >> like donald trump does. >> isn't it ironic that a new york billionaire is the one who resonates so well with regular americans. it's a massive country that is political misunderstood by political elites and media elites. because of that, sometimes we smear when we fear. they fear a popular uprising, via the ballot box, not via fire power. >> people do fear the use of arms to circumvent politics. nbc news poll had 72% of registered republicans, they doubt president obama's citizenship. what's your feeling about that? >> well, i think that's ridiculous. that's a non-sense diversion. weigh don't need to pay attention to that. >> his citizenship is settled? >> he's an american. let's focus on his record, though. >> we're making so much progress here. thank you very much. i'm going to quit while we're
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ahead. steve cortez, thank you for your time tonight. appreciate it. >> thank you, sir. joining me now, former special agent for the u.s. secret service. so you worked in the secret service 13 years, if i'm not mistaken. >> 13 years. >> you know, sure, like any statement, you could go back and retro actively interpret it. what's your read on this? >> i think the big issue here is whether he meant it or not meant it, words do matter. so when you have that platform, you have to be careful what you say to people. and it's also how are other people going to interpret it? so he may say, i didn't mean that and that may be true, but the person listening to you, that audience, what are they interpreting. everyone's debating this, did he mean one thing, right, he meant do harm to hillary. is oth others are saying, no, no, that's not what he meant. we're thinking about people who have logically, who don't have
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mental health issues. a lot of the threats against vips, they would come from people with mental issues or an emotionally disturbed person. so how is that person going to interpret that? >> this is the key thing. like, folks, you gotta take care of her, someone's gotta do something. you could say, wow, you gotta vote, you gotta write -- there's ways in which the meaning in that room in particular. here's a snapshot of what the atmosphere in these rallies is like courtesy of "the new york times." take a listen. >> [ bleep ]. [ bleep ]. [ bleep ]. >> that was folks saying "killer," hang the -- b word. it seems to me, from the
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perspective of being employed to guarantee her safety, that matters. >> it absolutely matters. look at the gatherings we're having and all the violence that's breaking out. this is one of the most presidential candidacies we've received. so now we're worried about her safety. i can almost guarantee that we're willing to see a spike somewhat, i don't know how big, but you will see a spike in threats that are going towards hillary at this point. >> you think so? >> i would think so. i'm speaking from strategically a security objective standpoint. when you make these comments, people are going to hear them and it's as if they're giving them permission to do that. you don't know how they're going to interpret it. this is dangerous. it creates volatility, you're going to have some people come out, but the secret service is probably going to be dealing with a lot more threats.
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or people with special interests, towards hillary. >> what's protocol? do you think secret service had a conversation with him? conversation he's got a detail. just his own detail toalking to him? >> yes, it does happen. they may not feel comfortable to say anything, because they want to stay out of the politics. their job is security. they don't want to influence one way or another, but you can almost be sure that internally, they're having discussions. they may not have spoken to him directly, but talked to his staff and his people. >> those conversations are happening anyway because of the logistics of what they have to do. >> you're traveling with him, state to state to state. you're with these people, you understand their intentions. he doesn't mean specific threat more than likely, but if he did, we would know about it. but he needs to be careful, he can't make those comments. >> joined by matt tie
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eastboundy, from "rolling stone." it's just how much precedent there's been in winking and nudging and all of this stuff with david duke, like, i don't know who david duke is. there's this constant semantic, three-card monty he's playing, always. >> right. >> like, you saw this, i didn't mean that. but time and time again, it feels like it's not just an accident. >> i think any reporter who's covered trump a lot over the last year will tell you this is a pretty tried and true rhetorical device that he resorts to quite a lot. there's a professor who talked about a trope that he uses which is parellipsis, which is bringing something up by not saying. and he does that over and over again. one of the more famous instances was the incident where somebody called ted cruz the p word, remember that in new hampshire?
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he said, oh, that's terrible. say that again. and then had the person say it. and he jokingly walked away from the microphone, like, oh, you. >> this is part of his character. he's playing a reality tv show character and this is part of what his role does. and it's worked for him before. it's allowed him to get certain messaging out there in the media without taking direct ownership of them. this was a particularly irresponsible use of that particular rhetorical device and it's a real line that he's crossed that he may not even have been aware of. >> that's exactly it. it's interesting, the campaign understood the line. it was a bad, irresponsible joke. also a slander at second amendment people. like you guys are all crazy nuts -- it's a weird thing to say if you believe the second amendment people are peaceful, law abiding -- >> not only that. it's catastrophically stupid
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politics. had he not made those comments, think about what the lead news story would be today. rudy guiliani is right, but the clinton foundation story would be the lead story today because it's a real story and it's going to be drowned out by the second amendment story for the next couple days, because it's just so inflammatory and so explosive. >> i think also, the other thing i think about, how common -- like we've had over the course of american history, it's been a very violent country and politics have been very violent. >> of course. >> 10% of presidents, i think, have been assassinated or nearly assassinated, of the ones we've had. we've seen the political violence in this country, so you always feel this ominous thing offstage. sometimes not offstage. in this campaign, particularly around trump rallies, and that's the other context to me that sort of gave this its -- >> sure, again, as someone who's covered a lot of campaigns over the years, i've felt this more and more as campaigns have gone on in recent years.
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you know, any group of people, in any crowd, there are always going to be mentally ill people. but in any group of americans, there's going to be a sizeable percentage of people who are just dumb. >> of all human beings. >> but you mix that in with anger and resentment and this growing sense of powerlessness -- >> and the room feeling. >> right. >> that was the thing that struck me so much on the night when chris christie gave his speech at the rnc, the "lock her up," guilty, guilty. it felt like you were in a witch trial. you could feel the crowd surging with the energy of that unified contempt. >> think about what the message of donald trump's campaign is. your leaders in both parties have not been advocating for you. this is the only way you can get something done. >> they stab you in the back. >> right. and now i may lose, so you must act alone. and that's a powerful message. >> terrifying. thank you, we appreciate it. coming up, hillary clinton
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is making a play for a state democrats haven't won since 1964. but first, donald trump says he's a straight shooter, so why is he always clarifying his past statements. take a tour through his most convoluted and false explanations next. for partners in health, time is life. we have 18,000 people around the world. the microsoft cloud helps our entire staff stay connected and work together in real time to help those that need it. the ability to collaborate changes how we work. what we do together changes how we live. if you then you'll know howuth, uncomfortable it can be. but did you know that the lack of saliva can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath? well, there is biotene, specially formulated with moisturizers and lubricants...
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tonight we find yourself yet again litigating the meaning of donald trump's words after the presidential nominee said something shocking and offensive. for someone who suggested that president obama should be disqualified from office for not using the right words, like this tweet from june. is president obama going to finally mention the words radical islamic terrorism? if he doesn't, he should resign in disgrace. trump will say something wildly inappropriate, reactions, headlines follow. trump will argue that's nots what he meant. when he accused megyn kelly of having blood coming out of her
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wherever, trump replied, only a deviant would think that. trump says he was only imitating a reporter groveling. after trump told my colleague that women who have abortions should be punished, he later said it's the doctors who should be punished. or a few weeks ago, when he called on russia to find and hack hillary clinton's e-mail. >> russia, if you're listening, i hope you're able to find the 30,000 e-mails that are missing. i think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press. >> following swift backlash over those comments and accusations of flirtations with treason for inviting a foreign government to hack secretary clinton's e-mails, trump said he was being sarcastic and was questioning whether or not they already had hacked her e-mail. i could go on and on, with him saying his words were
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misinterpreted. but here's the thing, a big part of the job as president is to communicate effectively, and even if you give him the benefit of the doubt on each occasion, he's failing that test. what do you mean by that, josh? >> this story, like all of these is exhausting. >> because you feel like we're fighting over sentence structure. >> that and ultimately you're fighting over what's inside donald trump's head. you can never prove what he was thinking. you can make strong arguments, but if he said i didn't mean that, you can never prove he was wrong. but it doesn't matter. that's why it's so silly, all this sentence diagramming. so long as he is being unclear and inflammatory to so many people, that is disqualifying for him to be the president.
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his comments would move the stock market, cause foreign troops to move, it would break up alliances that we have. if he's like, oh, i was just misunderstood, that's going to be a lot more costly now, than it was when he was pretending to be a real estate developer. >> you see barack obama sometimes do this thing that can be maddening, when he pauses and hums and -- here's an example of what i mean. >> yes, i think the republican nominee is unfit, to serve as president. i said so last week and,um, he keeps on proving it. the notion that he would attack a gold star family, that had made such extraordinary sacrifices on behalf of our country, the fact that he doesn't appear to have basic
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knowledge around critical issues in europe, in the middle east, in asia means that he's woefully unprepared to do this job. >> now, as a sound bite, that's somewhat arduous, because you can see him buffering. but that's the point of being president. like you have to be very careful in everything you say. >> well, and he knows that if he misspeaks, he can throw off a news cycle or much more than that. one good example, earlier in his presidency when the harvard professor got arrested -- >> wrongly. >> and the president said off the cuff that the police officer who arrested him had acted stupidly, which i think was a valid assessment, but was probably not the assessment he wanted to issue at the time. ended up having to have the police officer to the white house -- >> to clean up the mess.
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>> to clean up the mess that he had made. that's a small consequence. if you're talking about some interaction with russia, rather than the police department, you can have a much bigger consequence from misspeaking. one good thing that might come out of this campaign, the controversies that donald trump has created that are so outrageous mate recalibrate our outtraj meter about some other things, like mitt romney saying, i like being able to fire people. president obama saying, you didn't build that. it almost looks quaint. and maybe in the future, we'll remember what a really outrageous politician looks like. >> thank you for joining us. that's donald trump right there at the podium in ft. lauderdale. coming up, the stunning -- and i mean stunning details from the report on the baltimore police department. that's ahead. heart attack, a bayer aspirin regimen can help prevent another one.
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based on modern electoral history, there are not too many scenarios in which a democrat candidate would win utah. that's probably still the case, but it's being discussed. mormons' distaste for trump is so great that cruz crushed him. trump came in third behind kasich. if they don't want to pick him, they can lose the libertarian. but clinton began making her pitch for those voters. it reads in parts, trump's muslim ban would undo centuries of american traditions and values. but you don't have to take it
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from me. listen to mitt romney who said trump fired before aiming. when he decided a blanket religious ban was a solution to the threat of terrorism. we think clean food tastes better, feels better, does better. 100% of our food will be clean by year's end. every bite will be food as it should be. ♪ you're at the top of your game.. at work or at play, you're unstoppable.
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nothing can throw you off track. oh hey, she's cute. nice going man. things are going great for you. you've earned a night out. good drinks, good friends. yeah, we can go ahead and call this a good night. wait, is that your car? uh oh. not smart. yeah, i saw that coming. say goodbye to her. ouch! that will hurt your bank account. you're looking at around ten grand in fines, legal fees, and increased insurance rates. i hope you like eating frozen dinners. alone. let's try this again. smart move. because buzzed driving is drunk driving.
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these violations have deeply eroded the mutual trust between bpd and the community it serves, trust that is essential to the
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community safety and officer safety as well. the pattern or practice that we found results from long-standing, systemic deficiencies in the bpd. >> the department of justice issued a blistering report today, detailing systemic racial discrimination. civil rights sdrffingz was launched over a year ago at the request of baltimore city officials, following the unrest and outrage over the death of baltimore resident freddie gray in police custody. they kpominned more than six years of records and concluded they made inconstitutional stops and arrested and discriminated against people of color. in baltimore, a city that is city% black, 91% of those arrested for discretionary offenses like failure to obey or
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tr trespassing were black. these practices in the ci-- african american. a report details some of the disparities. one african american man in his mid 50s was stopped 30 years in less than four years. none of the citations resulted in a criminal charge. another example shows during a ride-along, a sergeant instructed an officer to stop a group of young african american makes on a street corner. this was done with a doj investigator in the car. that incident, the justice department found was not atypical. another sergeant posted on facebook he would encourage his officers to clear corners, by threatening arrests for minor
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offenses like loitering. that sergeant writing and perhaps summarizing the entire problem with american policing. do not treat criminals like citizens. citizens want that corner clear. joining me now, trymaine lee, who has been pouring over this report. read this whole thing, if you have an hour of time, it's a shocking document. >> it seems like deja vu all over again. fe've seen the report out of uson, cleveland, in philadelphia before. we'll probably find the same thing in chicago. but in so many ways, it still manages to shock us. we talk about a template that supervisors give out, where black male is already filled out. >> that's the default? you have to change it from black male. >> the presumption is, it will be a black male. in other cases, they use strip
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searches in public. a woman pulled over for a missing headline ends up getting an aenal cavity search. she ends up naked in public, getting her aenal cavity searched. city by city, we wonder why the gap in trust is so wide, when on monday, tuesday, wednesday, thursday, friday night this happens, and on saturday night, you want some cooperation and help. >> i could talk about this for an hour. writing a book now on this very topic. these are people that protect folks, right? the sex crimes unit has one of the lowest rates in the country, 16%. and you have a report of a sex crimes investigator saying homicide investigator, saying, we don't have real victims. you have police officers saying, are you sure you want to mess up the guy's life? these are the police who are supposed to protect people and prosecute crimes. >> and this speaks to their
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engagement with the public and the community. but even internally, even when good cops, we always want the good cops to say something, step up and identify a bad cop who planted drugs on a suspect. they were persecuted internally. basically -- >> punished? >> punished. so it's amazing. but it speaks volumes to the state that we're in now. and we wonder why the gap is so wide. >> this is one of the problems also. we're seeing it in this report in baltimore. the complaint system. does it work? so here's an example about racial slurs. in approximately six years of complaint data we received from bpd, we found one complaint that bpd classified as a racial slur. so in six years, there was one complaint of a racial slur mp this is implausible. we found 60 more complaints that alleged bpd officers use one
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racial slur, the n word, but all of these were misclassified as a lesser offense. you have cops out there dropping that word and not even ending up in the database that says they did it. there's one officer with 120 complaints, and he's still working. the state's attorney said, we cannot bring these people to court. >> they had a do not call, list, because they could not be confident they would not perjure themselves on the stand. >> right. >> there was an entire unit that was placed on the state's attorney's do not call list, because they can't be trusted to -- >> but that lack of confidence never translated to internal disciplinary action. supervisors let folks run rough shod.
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>> i go after this, do not treat them like they're citizens. the police have made up their minds, there's two groups. one that's deserving of the protections of the u.s. will constitution, and other that's undeserving of the u.s. constitution. and nothing that more perfectly states that than do not treat criminals like citizens. donald trump is actually in fourth place. plus, the oddest story in the last 24 hours ahead. going to the skate park today? maybe...
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the convention was devoted to make america first again. an interesting stat popped up this week. in tv ad spending, he's behind both major third-party candidates, fourth behind clinton, jill stein, and gary johnson. his campaign has yet to spend a single cent on ads. you can chalk it up to a strategic choice, but you can't say the same about poll numbers. we'll show you where trump is polling in fourth place, in just 60 seconds. poor mouth breather. allergies?
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errors, but it's one of several polls showing trump struggling with young voters. trump edged out gary johnson last week among voters under 35, losing to clinton by 27 points. and in our latest poll, trump holes a six point lead on johnson and trails clinton by 21. but there's another truly head snapping stat out this week. trump's support amongst african american voters. donald trump is in fourth place behind black voters nationally, behind clinton, johnson and stein. this is not one poll. this is the average of four different national, live interview polls taken since the convention. as a self-proclaimed winner, there are no points for fourth place. if you're told you have cancer,
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hillary clinton at her rally in kissimmee, florida, while she was talking about the shooting. afterwards a reporter asked him why he was there. >> i was invited by democratic party. >> just like, come support hillary, just a regular chain e-mail, or a personal invitation? >> so it came out -- i'm a member. so as a member, i get it, it's nothing particular about it. it's democratic party, so everybody can join. >> so basically looks like he got one of those e-mails on a huge list, saying there's a hillary clinton rally. trump's supporters have been making an issue of his presence at the rally. >> the guy behind hillary clinton is the father of a person who killed 49 people, ends up being invited to sit in a prime position behind hillary clinton. what's drawing him to hillary
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clinton? people should ask that question. what is bringing him? i believe it's her soft stance on islamic terrorism. >> the ultimate thing, this is about optics, which is really a word that pundits and politicals use, but that best describes what it's like to see the father of a mass murderer sitting behind the democratic presidential nominee, as she's speaking 30 minutes from the pulse nightclub, while she's talking about the shooting there. it's undeniably word, but what is the objection to him being here, other than the optics? should the clinton campaign have stopped him from coming? how would they even know? he's not responsible for what his son did. should the campaign have sat him somewhere else so it didn't look weird? there's no moral reason for him to do that. if you're going to find an issue with that, it's that this guy, independent of his son, has some battie positions, which can be
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found at his news page. which is why the reporter said, it was a 3,000-person open-door event. the campaign was unaware of his attendance until after the event. the campaign also said, hillary clinton disagrees with his views and disavows his support. still ahead, one of the ways to demonstrate just how significant clinton's lead has become, i'll show it to you next. or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away
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illustrating just how significant clinton's lead has become, as the polling gap between clinton and trump gets bigger, the battleground map expands. clinton is leading in nine of these ten battleground states. far more than she would actually need to get to 270 electoral votes. clinton has a slim lead in georgia, which we never talk about as a toss-up state, but which is today by virtue of her lead today. trump is only .3% ahead in arizona, which hasn't been won by a democrat since bill clinton. wisconsin, clinton is ahead by 15 points in the latest poll. another way to illustrate the yawning gap between clinton and trump, is to look at the daily forecast, putting clinton's chances of winning the election at 75%. joining me now, senior spokesman for the 2008 obama campaign and a principal for 270 strategies,
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a consulting firm named after what it takes to win a presidential election. as you look at this, as a veteran of the obama campaigns, what strikes -- what jumps out to you about the map, particularly as compared to 2008 or 2012? >> you know, if you're looking at the states that you think you have in your pocket, in the last six elections, there have been 19 states that have been voted democratic. and you start as a democrat with 242 electoral votes. that was the same case in 2008, when we were looking at the map. so we were pretty close, we had 28 states to go to get there. there were a couple states that were very close in 2008. iowa was 10,000 votes, the raw vote difference. new mexico, was 588 raw votes. >> wow. >> so we were targeting those states right away. just with those states, you get very, very close. then you pick up one or two other states. what i see in the new map in 2016, consolidation of those 19
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states, and actually, we've consolidated a couple states we've picked up in 2008, colorado and virginia, where we're not even advertising anymore. >> yeah, that to me seems like the first order, biggest story, when you're looking at the long-term structural trends. what's untenable for republicans is exactly the map. what do you start out with on each side? right? >> right. >> let's say the 19 and we can talk about pennsylvania in a moment, which is among those 19. >> right. >> but the idea of colorado and virginia now having moved into this reliably, count-on-able for democrats is a big deal for the map. >> it's a huge deal, because it cuts off the gop pit, that you have to go through this thin thing that's going on, almost like trying to climb trump tower, if i was to try and do it. if you just look at it, it means if you're a democrat, you don't need states like florida or ohio or iowa nevada. you don't need those states in
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order to win the presidential election. >> let's talk about that, the florida and ohio thing. hillary clinton, because of the way things work, if you give her colorado and virginia, and give her new hampshire where right now she's up by 15 points, she can still get -- there you can see 273. that's a version of a map, of hillary clinton becoming the president in which she loses both ohio and florida. >> right. this is just amazing, right? >> for years, we had to acclimate ourselves -- >> it was florida and ohio. but because of hillary clinton's strength with white voters with a college degree, you've taken colorado and virginia off the board. tim kaine's adding points in virginia, and it just makes the path for donald trump, how is he supposed to win with that map being the way it is? >> one thing that's on that map that is clear, is pennsylvania. that's the classic republican fool's gold. every year, they say they're going to win it. mitt romney, didn't he have -- the last day of the election, i think he had a rally in pennsylvania. right now, the polling average shows it's fairly safely in
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clinton's corner, but there are -- pennsylvania is in a different place dem graphically than places like virginia and colorado, which are on a glide path towards being more democratic. that is not true of pennsylvania. >> yeah, but you know what, the thing i would say about pennsylvania, where it's really creeping closer and closer into a very safe state, trump is turning off suburban voters. if you look at the poll from last week in pennsylvania, in southeast -- in the southeast counties outside of philadelphia, hillary clinton has a 40 point lead. barack obama won those counties by nine points. so the demographics there are a little different than other states. but he's turning off every demographic of voter, including the ones he would need to win in pennsylvania. >> this is a key point. because there's a difference between what trump's coalition looks at the low water mark and the high water mark. right now is is a low-water mark. there's lots of places he's
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underperforming mitt romney among white voters. you can't win that one. >> if you're going to turn off and get 2% of black voters, and you have polls with hispanic voters, which have him maybe winning 15%, you need white voters and by a large margin and he's not doing that and hasn't been doing that the entire year. maybe a slight bump after the convention, but for the most part, all of the evidence we see, suggests he has a ceiling around 40% of the vote. unless gary johnson decides to turn into ross perot, you're not going to win with 40% of the vote. >> you've been running these models, based on the gap. say it's ten points. at ten points, even stuff like south carolina and texas start to enter the plausible picture. why is that? >> it's just because if you're going to have a ten-point national swing, then all of a sudden it's going to be that the states make up the union. you're not going to have all of a sudden barack obama, you know,
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you have hillary clinton improving on barack obama's performance by so much in new york. it has to be across the board. and a state like south carolina is a potential place for that. >> let's say the republicans nominated the best possible candidate. all right? some sort of laboratory, amalgam of various republicans, he's young and he can reach out to all kinds of voters. what's the democratic state, you think, is the most tenuous of those 19? >> of the 19, you look at traditional states like wisconsin or michigan, where you know, there's a lot of angst. there's a stronger feeling about the direction of the country. where i think voters could peel off and look for just a different direction, not necessarily having anything to do with the candidate. but i would look there. the other thing that's interesting here, the democratic campaign here, hillary clinton is going on offense, expanding beyond the 19. so we're looking at georgia now. >> yeah. >> and arizona.
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and i don't think south carolina and texas necessarily are going to come into play. but in three out of the last five polls in georgia, hillary's tied or in the lead. >> the georgia story would be seismic in terms of electoral math. thank you very much. that's "all in" for now. we'll be back tonight live at 11:00 eastern. why not? you're not going to want to miss that. the rachel maddow show starts right now. good evening, steve. >> pulling double duty, i respect that. >> you got it. >> thanks for that, chris. thanks to you at home for joining us tonight. rachel has the night off. well, let's just start with this. if you happen to look up at your tv in your office today, that's something we did around here, something we do around here all the time. we saw something we don't see all the time. look at this. this is a major office building here in new york city, not just any major office building. that's the trump tower. that's donald trump's office building. he works there, he lives there, and there was a man ct


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